WEBVTT - SHARP NFL Week 8 Bets: Ravens-Bills, Chiefs-Broncos and more 0:00:00.810 --> 0:00:05.050 Welcome to Sharper Square presented by Polymarket. We are part 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.299 of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that 0:00:09.340 --> 0:00:13.039 makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:16.200 I am Chad Millman. I am joined as always by 0:00:16.290 --> 0:00:21.430 my co-host, my BFF, my companion, my compadre, professional bettor, 0:00:21.570 --> 0:00:24.770 Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. 0:00:25.790 --> 0:00:27.800 Chad, how are we doing? Brother. 0:00:29.480 --> 0:00:37.390 Sports are the freaking best. We're not from Milwaukee, but 0:00:37.729 --> 0:00:41.190 I fell in love with this Brewers team, stayed up 0:00:41.250 --> 0:00:45.200 way past my bedtime watching these World Series games. My 0:00:45.350 --> 0:00:51.240 favorite celebration in all of sports is when teams win 0:00:51.260 --> 0:00:55.040 the World Series and the reaction shots of players throwing 0:00:55.060 --> 0:00:57.500 their gloves in the air and they all run to 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:02.130 the pitcher's mound and It brings me such joy. It 0:01:02.530 --> 0:01:07.060 looks like they are kids again playing Little League. And 0:01:07.080 --> 0:01:12.759 it is just such overwhelming happiness. And then before we 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:16.340 get on the call, on the show, we're chatting with 0:01:16.380 --> 0:01:21.370 Matt Mitchell, who lives in Milwaukee, who is an avowed 0:01:21.410 --> 0:01:26.010 Brewers fan, who's raising his family in Milwaukee, who woke 0:01:26.130 --> 0:01:32.140 up his young son, The past two nights to see 0:01:32.160 --> 0:01:34.979 the Brewers win the World Series and the kids suffered 0:01:35.600 --> 0:01:39.260 heartache in the 12th inning the first time and last 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:41.180 night got to see the final three outs and now 0:01:41.220 --> 0:01:42.720 they will go to a parade. And this kid is 0:01:42.780 --> 0:01:48.389 old enough. Monty is old enough. He'll remember this. Like 0:01:48.990 --> 0:01:52.350 he's what it, Matt Mitchell, he's probably nine years old 0:01:52.410 --> 0:01:56.850 right now. He will remember this for the rest of 0:01:56.890 --> 0:02:01.680 his life. He's old enough to get it. It's so beautiful. 0:02:02.140 --> 0:02:04.230 I know I'm being sentimental, but I freaking love it. 0:02:05.760 --> 0:02:07.889 Yeah, it was a can't lose World Series. 0:02:07.930 --> 0:02:09.669 We had two teams that were going to win their 0:02:09.730 --> 0:02:12.950 first World Series. And we talk all the time of 0:02:12.990 --> 0:02:15.970 football that, you know, someday it's going to be Cleveland 0:02:16.050 --> 0:02:20.880 versus Detroit or the Bills versus Detroit. These long, true, 0:02:20.940 --> 0:02:24.100 passionate fan bases. And I don't know about you, but 0:02:24.120 --> 0:02:26.959 for me, it always rings true in my head. 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:28.260 I think of past fans. 0:02:28.950 --> 0:02:30.269 Ones that couldn't make, I know that happened to a 0:02:30.270 --> 0:02:33.130 lot of Cubs fans, but like immediately thought of Bob Uecker, 0:02:33.490 --> 0:02:36.050 like most legendary people ever. 0:02:36.070 --> 0:02:39.120 I have some really funny stories about him. 0:02:40.260 --> 0:02:42.780 He was, you know, one of a kind people, someone 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.579 that I was in the same room as, I never 0:02:45.620 --> 0:02:48.700 got to speak to personally, but you know, I think 0:02:48.720 --> 0:02:51.480 of him as like this massive personality and this. 0:02:51.480 --> 0:02:54.260 Diehard Milwaukee fan. And I think he passed away like 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:55.710 a year ago or something like that. 0:02:55.770 --> 0:02:56.790 January of 25, I think. 0:02:57.800 --> 0:03:00.040 Yeah like he was like 90 ish and you think 0:03:00.060 --> 0:03:02.340 of those guys who just you know you probably never 0:03:02.380 --> 0:03:05.190 missed a game of this milwaukee team and you know 0:03:05.230 --> 0:03:08.050 you can say i know it's corny the angels in 0:03:08.070 --> 0:03:10.130 the outfit all that stuff but it's like they felt 0:03:10.150 --> 0:03:12.169 like a team of destiny they really did we said 0:03:12.190 --> 0:03:14.450 that two weeks two or three weeks ago this milwaukee 0:03:14.470 --> 0:03:18.679 team felt like something special so yeah between matt mitchell 0:03:18.700 --> 0:03:22.340 you know all these brewer fans it was just it 0:03:22.380 --> 0:03:24.260 was great i mean the ratings were big too so 0:03:24.300 --> 0:03:26.700 people can't you know complain about small market teams the 0:03:26.720 --> 0:03:28.910 whole thing and You know, if we are heading into 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.540 a lockdown, a lockout for baseball this upcoming year, what 0:03:32.560 --> 0:03:34.160 a high note to end on. It really was, where 0:03:34.180 --> 0:03:38.150 it's just two franchises that never won it, got to it. 0:03:38.460 --> 0:03:41.420 And yeah, it should have been a sweep, 1-4-1. What 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:43.720 a way to end it for the Brewers and their fans. 0:03:44.940 --> 0:03:48.620 As they say in one of my favorite movies, how 0:03:48.660 --> 0:03:53.940 can you not be romantic about baseball? It's just, it's great. 0:03:54.060 --> 0:03:59.670 It's so tense. Those games are just phenomenal. Meanwhile, breaking 0:03:59.730 --> 0:04:03.290 news right before we're coming on air, my phone is 0:04:03.330 --> 0:04:07.310 blowing up because the Chicago Bears have traded two first 0:04:07.370 --> 0:04:11.070 round picks and a fourth round pick for one of 0:04:11.130 --> 0:04:15.750 our favorite players in the NFL. A guy who single-handedly 0:04:15.810 --> 0:04:19.340 sometimes makes us reevaluate whether or not we want to 0:04:19.460 --> 0:04:22.219 bet on the Tennessee Titans in a positive way. We 0:04:22.260 --> 0:04:29.090 are talking about grown man strength, red armband Jeffrey Simmons 0:04:29.870 --> 0:04:35.160 is going to play for the Chicago Bears. Giving up 0:04:35.180 --> 0:04:37.760 a lot, but I freaking love it. I was just 0:04:37.800 --> 0:04:41.320 texting with my kid about this. And to me, this 0:04:41.380 --> 0:04:44.000 is the Bears knowing the window is short, knowing they 0:04:44.020 --> 0:04:47.839 have so much talent, knowing that there are opportunities in 0:04:47.880 --> 0:04:53.230 the NFC to grab hold of this conference. And they 0:04:53.270 --> 0:04:55.510 got to go for it. So I love the gumption. 0:04:55.990 --> 0:04:59.330 I love the risk-taking. I love the move. You're getting 0:04:59.770 --> 0:05:03.599 a stupendous player to come and really have an impact 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:08.020 on the defense. I'm overwhelmed with joy. The sports just 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:09.080 keeps giving today. 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:13.140 Yeah, I don't hate it because it is a great 0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:16.220 player at a great position. It's not like it's Sauce Gardner, right? 0:05:16.520 --> 0:05:18.960 And you're not just lighting these draft picks on fire. 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:24.260 My only pushback is the window– has never been more 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:26.520 open for the next 10 to 15 years. 0:05:27.200 --> 0:05:28.120 That's the only thing I don't get. 0:05:28.140 --> 0:05:31.960 You have the coach, you have the quarterback, this, this 0:05:32.000 --> 0:05:34.520 whole misconstruction of you need to win while the QB 0:05:34.540 --> 0:05:37.860 still in the rookie contract. This isn't, this is not true. 0:05:38.220 --> 0:05:40.940 We have the data. I mean, we we've seen who 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:42.930 was the last Superbowl winner, Sam Donald. He's not a 0:05:42.950 --> 0:05:44.330 rookie contract. Who was before him? 0:05:44.390 --> 0:05:46.590 Jalen hurts. He wasn't on a rookie contract. 0:05:47.010 --> 0:05:48.550 I know it's him in my homes. They pushed the 0:05:48.589 --> 0:05:51.010 money down the line, but the bears could do the 0:05:51.050 --> 0:05:53.230 same thing. So, That was my only thing I didn't 0:05:53.250 --> 0:05:55.529 really get where it's just, yeah, the league's wide. 0:05:55.430 --> 0:05:59.529 Open this year. When will it not be for Caleb 0:05:59.589 --> 0:06:01.450 Williams and your head coach? 0:06:01.490 --> 0:06:05.050 It just feels like you guys have the pieces. But, yeah, 0:06:05.070 --> 0:06:06.450 you have a chance to go out and win the 0:06:06.470 --> 0:06:08.990 best he tackles in all football. Give him up a 0:06:08.990 --> 0:06:11.450 lot of assets, but you go get him, right? 0:06:11.630 --> 0:06:12.510 It's a key position. 0:06:12.600 --> 0:06:15.600 So, to me, normally I would not be a big 0:06:15.650 --> 0:06:18.540 fan of it, but you're talking about one of the best– 0:06:18.830 --> 0:06:20.610 Two best D tackles in all of football. 0:06:20.790 --> 0:06:23.810 Total game changer. And your defense has nothing up the middle. 0:06:23.890 --> 0:06:26.740 So, yeah, like you said, got to be excited and 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:29.080 looking forward for the prospects of this Bears team. 0:06:30.820 --> 0:06:35.859 I'm so happy. It's just a glorious, glorious morning. 0:06:36.080 --> 0:06:37.300 You know what else might bring you some joy? 0:06:37.320 --> 0:06:38.300 What's that? 0:06:38.720 --> 0:06:39.920 Something came in the mail for me today. 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:41.670 What'd you get? 0:06:43.990 --> 0:06:47.510 The Game by Peter King. Oh, dude. Dude. Don't psych 0:06:47.529 --> 0:06:47.789 you out. 0:06:47.810 --> 0:06:49.770 I was just messing with Chad. Chad sent me his 0:06:49.800 --> 0:06:52.580 book in the mail, but it didn't come yet. But 0:06:52.620 --> 0:06:53.860 Peter King's book. 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:57.860 Dude, I'm reading the book right now. It's great. 0:06:58.000 --> 0:06:58.580 It's great. 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:03.770 Peter King is my first job out of college was 0:07:03.850 --> 0:07:08.330 fact checking Peter King. He is no joke. He is 0:07:08.390 --> 0:07:16.930 the nicest, kindest, most well-respected person. guy I've met in 0:07:17.850 --> 0:07:21.490 all of my years in media. Peter King is so 0:07:21.550 --> 0:07:25.910 nice that when I was living in the city, he 0:07:25.970 --> 0:07:28.330 wrote me a recommendation when I was trying to buy 0:07:28.350 --> 0:07:32.090 an apartment in New York City. Like the guy is just, 0:07:33.650 --> 0:07:36.230 I can't speak more highly of him. And he's got 0:07:36.270 --> 0:07:39.330 such a, everyone should buy the book. He's got such 0:07:39.380 --> 0:07:42.640 a unique way of telling stories. And the way he 0:07:42.720 --> 0:07:46.950 writes is the way he speaks. And so you're so 0:07:47.010 --> 0:07:50.330 comfortable and it's so intimate. And the stories he tells 0:07:50.390 --> 0:07:54.650 in this book are so, they're such great football stories 0:07:54.930 --> 0:07:59.090 and it's traces the history of the modern NFL, which 0:07:59.130 --> 0:08:02.530 he was there for everything. And so he's got stories 0:08:02.570 --> 0:08:05.730 about Bill Walsh crying in a conference room with Eddie 0:08:05.750 --> 0:08:09.180 DiBartolo and Carmen policy. He's got stories about being in a, 0:08:09.180 --> 0:08:12.360 in a hotel room with Deon Sanders, as he's trying 0:08:12.380 --> 0:08:14.400 to figure out, is he going to play professional baseball 0:08:14.420 --> 0:08:18.800 or professional football? He's in the room where they are 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:21.120 debating if Joe Montana should come back and be the 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:24.700 starting quarterback after Steve Young had won an MVP. And 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.540 it goes on and on and on. He's so connected. 0:08:29.580 --> 0:08:33.180 And I fact-checked so many of his stories. I've heard 0:08:34.250 --> 0:08:37.030 so many intimate details of people's lives because of what 0:08:37.090 --> 0:08:39.679 Peter King was able to get from them And then 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:41.380 they will sit with me and say, I can't believe 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:43.840 I told Peter King this. But you can because Peter 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:49.140 King is so gracious and warm. You get so comfortable. 0:08:49.220 --> 0:08:51.070 You want to share with him everything. And the book 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:54.500 is freaking awesome. You'll love it. You'll love it. 0:08:54.510 --> 0:08:57.089 Yeah, and that was just a joke. 0:08:57.170 --> 0:08:59.090 He has no idea who I am compared to Chad. 0:08:59.130 --> 0:09:01.490 This was just simply sent by his agents or whoever 0:09:01.510 --> 0:09:04.120 are managing his books. And yeah, Chad's right. 0:09:04.150 --> 0:09:05.959 If you're a fan of football, I would say since 0:09:05.980 --> 0:09:10.850 the 1980s to 2020– Peter King was footballing, man, was 0:09:10.929 --> 0:09:14.490 always on the inside, always had info and was so 0:09:14.570 --> 0:09:18.530 great at walking that line of giving up information, but 0:09:18.570 --> 0:09:20.250 not showing his full hand because he doesn't want people 0:09:20.270 --> 0:09:21.630 to know where he's getting the information from. 0:09:21.710 --> 0:09:25.770 So true masterclass. And just I was going to be 0:09:25.790 --> 0:09:28.329 a small segue into that. I'm an idiot. 0:09:28.650 --> 0:09:30.569 Most people listen to the show. I am very gifted 0:09:30.590 --> 0:09:33.170 at what I do at sports betting. But my core, 0:09:33.390 --> 0:09:35.449 I am very dumb and I will say dumb things. 0:09:36.070 --> 0:09:37.490 I appreciate all the fans who ever reach out to 0:09:37.500 --> 0:09:38.650 me and say, hey, you said this. 0:09:39.110 --> 0:09:41.790 You're an idiot. You were wrong. Two things will knock 0:09:41.890 --> 0:09:45.089 out super quick. Jared Goff, he's great against the Blitz. 0:09:45.770 --> 0:09:47.050 I misspoke. My bad. 0:09:47.770 --> 0:09:51.069 Number two, Baker Mayfield did hurt his throwing hand. It 0:09:51.090 --> 0:09:52.910 wasn't his not throwing hand. Those are the two things 0:09:52.929 --> 0:09:53.770 I heard from a ton of people. 0:09:53.790 --> 0:09:55.969 I'm sorry, people. We talk a lot for a living. 0:09:56.570 --> 0:09:59.350 This is not early in the morning for Chad, but 0:09:59.370 --> 0:10:01.620 early in the morning for me. So, yes, anytime I 0:10:01.660 --> 0:10:04.520 say something dumb, please message me. I'm happy to correct myself. 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:06.740 I'm not trying to mislead people in any way on 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:07.160 this show. 0:10:07.780 --> 0:10:09.240 Oh, my God. I'm so glad you brought that up 0:10:09.260 --> 0:10:12.280 because I was going to bring both of those things up, 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:17.020 especially when we talked about the Lions and the Vikings, 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.329 which we should get to. but you're a pro. I 0:10:20.370 --> 0:10:24.460 appreciate you doing that. Let's talk about what we're going 0:10:24.480 --> 0:10:27.120 to do today. It's Thursday, NFL week eight. We got 0:10:27.160 --> 0:10:29.480 sharp calls. We got brass balls. We got our underdog 0:10:29.580 --> 0:10:32.960 and favorite round Robbins. We've got Simon's biggest bets, sharp 0:10:33.040 --> 0:10:35.819 versus square, our discord grouper. 0:10:35.500 --> 0:10:35.980 Of the week. 0:10:36.950 --> 0:10:40.170 We will narrow down our final five picks for the 0:10:40.270 --> 0:10:44.970 free $ 25, 000 NFL pick them contest. All right, Simon, every week, 0:10:45.470 --> 0:10:49.400 we're going to discuss our picks on Tuesdays, And by Thursday, 0:10:50.440 --> 0:10:55.140 you've gotten an earful. I've gotten an earful from professional bettors, 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:58.140 what they like, what they don't like, what they didn't 0:10:58.179 --> 0:11:01.280 agree with. It's time for Sharp Calls. 0:11:01.830 --> 0:11:02.330 Who's there? 0:11:02.380 --> 0:11:03.030 I'm talking. 0:11:03.630 --> 0:11:05.890 Ring, ring, telephone ring. 0:11:05.910 --> 0:11:09.050 Somebody said, baby, what you doing? 0:11:10.190 --> 0:11:14.970 Let's start with the Thursday game. It's pretty split. 0:11:15.370 --> 0:11:17.390 Between pros i know a lot of pros are on 0:11:17.429 --> 0:11:18.550 green bay and a lot of pros are on the 0:11:18.590 --> 0:11:21.290 panthers and that's a line i won't be shocked to 0:11:21.309 --> 0:11:23.210 see if it gets the four just there's just so 0:11:23.250 --> 0:11:25.830 much respect the money right now coming in on green 0:11:25.850 --> 0:11:28.330 bay especially guys i've talked to where they want the 0:11:28.370 --> 0:11:30.229 three and they've been trying to be patient with it 0:11:30.290 --> 0:11:32.330 but i think it's it's it's at the point now 0:11:32.350 --> 0:11:34.010 where they realize they're never going to get there they 0:11:34.030 --> 0:11:35.360 might as well grab the three and a half so 0:11:35.860 --> 0:11:37.910 yeah it's a game where we both love carolina i'm 0:11:37.929 --> 0:11:39.800 happy to go against these other pro groups you know 0:11:39.820 --> 0:11:42.730 it's not defended on one side or the other We 0:11:42.750 --> 0:11:45.050 talked about that Ravens line was such a pro line, 0:11:45.110 --> 0:11:47.229 plus three and a half. You're basically just taking it 0:11:47.270 --> 0:11:49.980 just in case Lamar comes back. So it's another game 0:11:50.240 --> 0:11:53.580 early in the week. Lazy pros like me are just 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:55.500 going to take that Ravens number and just say, well, 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.740 if he's back, this is what, two and a half, three? 0:11:57.860 --> 0:12:00.100 That's this number where it should be in a very 0:12:00.210 --> 0:12:04.130 desperate Ravens team having Lamar back. And, you know, another 0:12:04.150 --> 0:12:06.250 game that jumped out, big conversation this week that wasn't 0:12:06.290 --> 0:12:08.880 really split. tons of love by the pros and the jets. 0:12:09.059 --> 0:12:10.739 And we saw that number go from plus one and 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:12.540 a half right back to minus one and a half. 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:14.900 So hopefully you could have grabbed that plus number or 0:12:14.940 --> 0:12:16.400 tease it up to seven and a half, whatever you 0:12:16.420 --> 0:12:18.020 want to do with it. But I don't think we 0:12:18.040 --> 0:12:19.660 ever get back to that plus number on the jets. 0:12:19.700 --> 0:12:21.720 I just think there's too much respect and love about 0:12:21.740 --> 0:12:24.660 these pro bettors. Again, we're on the other side of 0:12:24.820 --> 0:12:26.900 tons of pro money on Pittsburgh guys. 0:12:26.940 --> 0:12:28.580 I really respect, really love Pittsburgh. 0:12:29.120 --> 0:12:31.699 And I told you I on a normal week, I 0:12:31.720 --> 0:12:33.679 would get it. But if you're talking about team flying 0:12:33.700 --> 0:12:37.370 across the Atlantic ocean and And now playing against a 0:12:37.470 --> 0:12:40.790 divisional foe that beat them early in the year, I 0:12:40.830 --> 0:12:42.490 just can't get there. So that's going to be a 0:12:42.490 --> 0:12:47.030 fun one to break down. Obviously, I'm pretty split on 0:12:47.050 --> 0:12:51.130 that one. This Detroit-Minnesota game, Barry, split. No tons of 0:12:51.170 --> 0:12:55.110 pro money. On Detroit, same thing. I think what most 0:12:55.130 --> 0:12:56.870 of the general public is looking at is that just 0:12:57.390 --> 0:13:00.100 they don't trust Kyler, don't trust that Vikings offense, but 0:13:00.809 --> 0:13:02.390 I keep pushing back against them at plus three and 0:13:02.410 --> 0:13:02.590 a half. 0:13:02.610 --> 0:13:04.150 You don't have to. You're getting the hook. 0:13:04.350 --> 0:13:06.310 Like you can trust the defense with that type of number. 0:13:06.350 --> 0:13:10.030 So that's a really fun other game to debate. Another 0:13:10.050 --> 0:13:13.150 game that shocked me, talking to pros, tons of guys 0:13:13.190 --> 0:13:15.930 I really respect that love the Rams against the Chargers. 0:13:16.429 --> 0:13:18.070 So that was one I didn't see coming where it's 0:13:18.090 --> 0:13:20.689 like I thought it was going to be all pros 0:13:20.730 --> 0:13:22.630 versus shows the public all over the Rams and the 0:13:22.670 --> 0:13:25.250 pros all over this Chargers line. But that's actually a 0:13:25.290 --> 0:13:29.250 pretty split between different groups, which shocked me. 0:13:30.020 --> 0:13:33.400 Comes a shock to no one. That Jaguars game, we 0:13:33.440 --> 0:13:34.660 talked about it. It was 7.5. 0:13:34.640 --> 0:13:37.100 It's run all the way up to 10 now just 0:13:37.140 --> 0:13:39.020 because the Colts are selling off a bunch of players. 0:13:39.500 --> 0:13:41.940 That's not the only reason, right? DeForest Buckner's not moving 0:13:41.980 --> 0:13:44.600 a line 2.5 points. They're just, Quentin Nelson's not moving 0:13:44.620 --> 0:13:47.420 a line 2.5 points. This is really, really, really respected 0:13:47.470 --> 0:13:49.160 money coming in heavy on this Jaguars team. 0:13:49.210 --> 0:13:51.510 So, I'll own it. Totally missed that one. I thought 0:13:51.550 --> 0:13:54.070 it'd be a Colts line. Now it's really a Colts line. 0:13:54.090 --> 0:13:55.869 You're getting plus 10 in a lot of shops on 0:13:55.890 --> 0:13:57.990 this Colts team. So, just interesting to hear so many 0:13:58.030 --> 0:14:00.599 pros coming in on this Jaguars team and them chasing 0:14:00.620 --> 0:14:02.140 the steam. Like they bet it at seven and a half, 0:14:02.179 --> 0:14:04.040 but at eight and a half, I know some groups 0:14:04.080 --> 0:14:07.020 even better than nine. So the pros do really love 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.439 that Jaguar side. I just, I can't see what that 0:14:09.460 --> 0:14:12.780 many points in a divisional game. And yeah, the last 0:14:12.830 --> 0:14:14.730 one that really jumped out to me, a lot of conversations, 0:14:14.830 --> 0:14:18.160 just Denver over the chiefs, tons of pros on it. 0:14:18.670 --> 0:14:20.170 Public office is going to be all over the chiefs. 0:14:20.250 --> 0:14:22.630 And yeah, it's one we'll have to talk about. Cause I'm, 0:14:22.870 --> 0:14:23.450 I'm not. 0:14:23.350 --> 0:14:25.290 Seeing what the pros are seeing on this one with Denver. 0:14:25.330 --> 0:14:27.130 So I'm interested in your take on it, but yeah, 0:14:27.150 --> 0:14:28.670 a lot of pro money coming in on Denver in 0:14:28.690 --> 0:14:29.030 that game. 0:14:30.050 --> 0:14:35.690 Let's talk about Carolina for a second, because I was 0:14:35.870 --> 0:14:38.670 curious where we were going to go in sharp calls 0:14:38.750 --> 0:14:43.480 on this one, because it's fascinating to me that this 0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:47.340 looks like it's running to four. You look at the 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:51.720 juice on this line across the board, and it's much 0:14:51.780 --> 0:14:53.860 more likely to go to four than it is to three. 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:56.720 So I've been waiting to take a second bite at 0:14:56.740 --> 0:15:00.260 the apple on Carolina. because I'm hoping that it's going 0:15:00.280 --> 0:15:02.500 to get to four before the game, even though the 0:15:02.540 --> 0:15:05.580 fact that it getting to four before the game to 0:15:05.620 --> 0:15:08.260 me is much more of an indicator that professionals have 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:13.850 been not as aggressive on Carolina as I would have 0:15:13.910 --> 0:15:19.650 liked them to be to feel better about Carolina at 0:15:19.690 --> 0:15:25.109 three and a half. I'm still on them. Like Bryce 0:15:25.150 --> 0:15:28.600 coming off a bad game as a dog on the road, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:33.080 against a defensive backfield that is susceptible to big plays, 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.980 which we saw again and again and again against the 0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:41.070 Lions the week before. I like that spot. I like 0:15:41.470 --> 0:15:46.530 playing a dog that was just blown out seven and 0:15:46.550 --> 0:15:51.630 two this season, historically 57%. So I'm a little surprised 0:15:51.670 --> 0:15:53.330 it hasn't been for three, especially by the way, we 0:15:54.150 --> 0:15:57.270 know the Packers have some pretty considerable issues on the 0:15:57.350 --> 0:16:02.820 offensive line. And now Matthew Golden has popped up as 0:16:02.920 --> 0:16:10.460 questionable and a limited practice participant on Wednesday. So explain 0:16:10.480 --> 0:16:12.360 to me the Packers' love. What are we missing here? 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.800 Is it anti-Carolina or is it pro-Green Bay? 0:16:14.820 --> 0:16:18.510 It could be a little anti-Carolina because, like you said, 0:16:18.530 --> 0:16:21.930 that was just such a bad loss. And now you're 0:16:21.970 --> 0:16:25.090 going from Bucky Irvin to a fresh Josh Jacobs, like 0:16:25.110 --> 0:16:27.920 you would think. This favorites the Packers' run game in 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.920 many ways as well. But I'm like you. I don't 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:31.250 get it. 0:16:31.580 --> 0:16:33.840 Three, I totally get the love for the Packers, right? 0:16:33.920 --> 0:16:37.590 The pros loving that number made total sense, but it's 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:38.640 never going to get there. 0:16:38.750 --> 0:16:40.150 And that's why I don't get why they're just taking 0:16:40.170 --> 0:16:41.650 the three and a half. And they're not just taking it. 0:16:41.650 --> 0:16:44.350 They're betting it pretty heavily. So it's just a game 0:16:44.370 --> 0:16:46.470 where maybe we're missing something here. But I agree. 0:16:46.710 --> 0:16:49.229 To me, it feels like a no-brainer spot with Carolina. 0:16:49.250 --> 0:16:52.110 You're getting them at a plus number after an embarrassing 0:16:52.170 --> 0:16:53.210 loss on a short. 0:16:53.030 --> 0:16:54.750 Week with a talented team. 0:16:54.850 --> 0:16:58.600 Like they're not– Maybe they're not going to be, you know, 0:16:58.660 --> 0:16:59.620 like the Bears type, right? 0:16:59.640 --> 0:17:01.200 A team that you trust to go on a playoff run. 0:17:02.000 --> 0:17:02.740 But I think we all. 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.160 Agree that Panthers being a team that could win their 0:17:05.180 --> 0:17:08.110 division or a possible seventh seed feels real. Like they 0:17:08.130 --> 0:17:10.929 feel like they have enough talent offensively and defensively. I know, 0:17:10.950 --> 0:17:13.870 you know, they've been up and down certain weeks, but overall, 0:17:14.350 --> 0:17:16.450 like that defensive unit's not as terrible as we thought 0:17:16.470 --> 0:17:17.970 they were going to be coming into the season. So 0:17:18.530 --> 0:17:20.290 when I look at this Carolina team, it really is 0:17:20.310 --> 0:17:23.050 a bet on what we've seen with Bryce Young, which 0:17:23.109 --> 0:17:26.010 is just, anytime he's what Chad said, he's like a 0:17:26.090 --> 0:17:28.930 dog in this position after a really bad loss, especially 0:17:28.950 --> 0:17:31.650 the last two years tends to bounce back. He doesn't 0:17:31.750 --> 0:17:34.629 consistently have bad games in a row. That's what you can, 0:17:34.730 --> 0:17:37.020 you can bash price on for all these different things, 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.770 but being consistently good and not letting bad losses pile up. 0:17:42.140 --> 0:17:44.139 He hasn't really done that since he's taken over this 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:47.180 job from Andy Dalton a few years ago. So yeah, 0:17:47.200 --> 0:17:49.220 looking at this number, Chad, I think that's, and I 0:17:49.220 --> 0:17:50.990 think it's because right now it's just the movement of it. 0:17:51.260 --> 0:17:53.610 If this was going down to three, We'd both feel 0:17:53.670 --> 0:17:56.730 way more confident about it. The fact that it is 0:17:56.780 --> 0:17:58.520 touching forward a lot of shops to show how much 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:00.280 resistance there is and how much pro money is coming 0:18:00.300 --> 0:18:02.159 on the Packers. And I've talked about, I think the 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:04.159 Packers are a really good team. Obviously going to be 0:18:04.180 --> 0:18:06.960 a desperate team to win here after a bad divisional loss, 0:18:07.020 --> 0:18:08.860 but still think they'll win this game. 0:18:08.900 --> 0:18:10.180 But it's like by more than a field goal. I 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:10.480 don't know. 0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:12.420 Just feels like a lot of points where you're betting 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:14.080 a lot on the Packers, a lot of Panthers team 0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.980 that we've seen. They've had two uncompetitive games. I still 0:18:18.000 --> 0:18:20.220 think those are two outliers. Those are really two outlier 0:18:20.260 --> 0:18:23.869 games to me. And we've seen this pattern with Bryce 0:18:23.890 --> 0:18:25.550 Young to bounce back after bad losses. 0:18:26.869 --> 0:18:29.530 Simon, I don't know about you. It's going to be 0:18:29.590 --> 0:18:36.869 another night past my bedtime, watching sports, sweating a game 0:18:37.550 --> 0:18:44.650 on TV. Arizona at Dallas. You had said on Sunday, 0:18:44.730 --> 0:18:47.570 and we said it again on Tuesday before, We like 0:18:47.650 --> 0:18:51.119 Arizona here. We just want to see it get to seven. 0:18:51.400 --> 0:18:54.219 Let's just be patient, get the number to seven. The 0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:57.800 number is finally at seven. Arizona's seven point underdog at 0:18:57.820 --> 0:19:02.720 the Dallas Cowboys. Look, lots of micro and macro trends 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:06.790 here that we can address, but there's all of them say, 0:19:07.570 --> 0:19:16.090 take Arizona from a non-quarterback specific point of view, meaning Dak, 0:19:16.540 --> 0:19:20.639 has success in these situations, but historically teams in this spot, 0:19:21.170 --> 0:19:23.830 you want to be back in the underdog. This season, 0:19:24.150 --> 0:19:28.570 teams that are six plus point underdogs covering it in 0:19:28.630 --> 0:19:32.830 a store clip, a little bit of inflation because of 0:19:32.869 --> 0:19:36.710 last week's results, primarily with the Cowboys beating up on 0:19:36.730 --> 0:19:42.500 the Eagles. But you look at that game, the Cowboys 0:19:42.540 --> 0:19:47.139 were not exactly dominant. They needed until late in the 0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:53.080 third quarter to take the lead. The underlying numbers are 0:19:53.180 --> 0:19:58.500 relatively even. The Eagles just didn't have the talent to 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:02.330 stick with the Cowboys late in the game. The Cards 0:20:02.369 --> 0:20:04.870 are clearly more talented than the Eagles right now. They 0:20:04.910 --> 0:20:10.220 have been competitive. I'm more and more comfortable backing the Cardinals, 0:20:10.980 --> 0:20:11.900 especially at seven. 0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:15.460 Yeah, I'm trying to think it. 0:20:16.190 --> 0:20:18.609 It is tough to want to back the Cardinals in 0:20:18.630 --> 0:20:21.830 the sense that they are such a bad team, but 0:20:21.850 --> 0:20:23.910 we've talked about they're a. 0:20:23.850 --> 0:20:25.110 Bad team that has a good offense. 0:20:25.190 --> 0:20:28.090