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Speaker 1: So joining me now is somebody who did a deep

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Speaker 1: dive in investigation. Not a journalist that you know by name,

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Speaker 1: per se, but it's a political science professor from Stanford University,

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Speaker 1: and he went deep on a topic frankly, that many

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Speaker 1: of us journalists have been assuming wanting to do. But

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Speaker 1: it's in some ways so resource heavy, so time, so

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Speaker 1: much of a time sucked that it's always something you

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Speaker 1: put off and every once in a while you delve

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Speaker 1: into it and you realize there's something that isn't right here.

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Speaker 1: But you know, is this what I need to be

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Speaker 1: focused on in the moment or not? And then if

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Speaker 1: you're like me, and if you're my age and you

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Speaker 1: have parents of a certain age, they always ask these questions,

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Speaker 1: how come so and so is always asking me for money?

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Speaker 1: My mother says this to me all the time. They

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Speaker 1: claim if I don't send them money in the next

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours, you know, the democracy is doomed. Who

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Speaker 1: are these people? And I'm like, oh, mom, it's a

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Speaker 1: scam pack And that's all I usually say. But my

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Speaker 1: guest today Adam Bonica, political science professor at Stanford. He

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Speaker 1: did the hard work here and he did this substack

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Speaker 1: post a couple months ago, showing his receipts of a

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Speaker 1: long dive into the murky waters of digital fundraising. I'm

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Speaker 1: going to read the first couple of paragraphs of his

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Speaker 1: substacks so I can sort of set the scene, and

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Speaker 1: then I'm going to bring Adam in to explain his

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Speaker 1: work and explain his findings. He starts out this way.

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Speaker 1: The digital deluge is a familiar annoyance for anyone on

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Speaker 1: a democratic fundraising list. It's a relentless cacophony of bizarre

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Speaker 1: texts and emails, each one more urgent than the last,

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Speaker 1: promising that your immediate fifteen dollars donation is the only

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Speaker 1: thing standing between democracy and the abyss. The main rationtale

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Speaker 1: offered for this fundraising frenzy is that it's a necessary evil,

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Speaker 1: that the tactics, while unpleasant, are brutally effective at race

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Speaker 1: the money needed to win. But an analysis of the

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Speaker 1: official FEC filings tells a very different story. The fundraising

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Speaker 1: model is not a brutally effective tool for the party.

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Speaker 1: It's a financial vortex that consumes the vast majority of

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Speaker 1: every dollar it raises, and Adam, I think this is

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Speaker 1: the number that's going to shock people for every one

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars that people have been sending to these various

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Speaker 1: democratic entities, and we'll get to the details of them

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Speaker 1: in a minute, For every one hundred dollars you sent,

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Speaker 1: one dollar and sixty cents actually went to the cause,

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Speaker 1: ninety eight dollars and forty cents went to servicing services

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Speaker 1: rendered either to the consultants themselves or essentially a vicious

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Speaker 1: loop that just funded one pack or the other. I

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Speaker 1: am only giving you the top line atom. That's how

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Speaker 1: I thought we could try to begin to try to

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Speaker 1: lay the predicate there. What have I missed? What didn't

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Speaker 1: I mention that you feel like people need to understand

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Speaker 1: at the beginning in order to understand this really byzantine

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Speaker 1: digital fundraising scam.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I would start by saying, most people,

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Speaker 2: not just I talked to, but just in the sort

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Speaker 2: of realm of democratic politics, have had a strong sense,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned early on, that something here is awry,

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Speaker 2: that the tactics alone, they're a bit bizarre. They are

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Speaker 2: bordering sometimes on deceptive, maybe even predatory in a lot

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Speaker 2: of ways they're set up. And one of the things

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Speaker 2: that I had been really stored by in the run

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Speaker 2: up to the twenty twenty four election. Was just how

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Speaker 2: bombarded I was with these types of messages, not just

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Speaker 2: on email, which was you know, completely overflowing, but also

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Speaker 2: in my text messages.

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Speaker 1: Because an email you can at least put it in

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Speaker 1: a spam folder. It's the text messages that become there

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Speaker 1: is no spam folder for text right now.

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Speaker 2: And this was the main messaging I was getting from

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Party and the run up to a crucial election,

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Speaker 2: and it just felt wrong to me that this was

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Speaker 2: the way that the brand was being leveraged. You know,

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Speaker 2: as a local scientist, I think of, you know, parties

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Speaker 2: like the most important thing they have is their brand.

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Speaker 2: That's what wins you elections. How people view your party,

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Speaker 2: and the way that the brand was being presented to

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Speaker 2: voters and especially two potential donors was really problematic to me.

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Speaker 2: And so that's why I started looking into it. And

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Speaker 2: I've been studying campaign finance for fifteen years now. It's

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Speaker 2: sort of an area that I have a lot of

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Speaker 2: expertise in and so and all the ends and outs

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Speaker 2: of it and sort of how you know FEC or

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Speaker 2: the Schedual Election Commission record and all these public disloatures work.

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Speaker 2: So I thought, I mean, I'll just take a look

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Speaker 2: and see if there's anything connecting these types of messages.

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Speaker 1: And let me pause you here because you note this

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Speaker 1: in your sub stack. You really thought, man, that I'm

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Speaker 1: just going to spend a couple of days and that

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Speaker 1: after a couple of days, I'll be able to unravel

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Speaker 1: this in a couple of days. Well, tell me how

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Speaker 1: long a couple of days go.

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Speaker 2: Well, the first Insight book about five minutes, which was, Oh,

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Speaker 2: all of this is going back to like all these

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Speaker 2: messages that I'm getting that are of this type are

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Speaker 2: coming from basically one firm, Mothership Strategies.

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Speaker 1: It's really called Mothership, right, that's the actual name of

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Speaker 1: the first You know, there was a part of me

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Speaker 1: that thought, is this is this satire? Is this part

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Speaker 1: of the parity? Right? Like I mean, you know, I

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Speaker 1: guess you could say the founders of this scam had

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Speaker 1: a sense of humor. So Mothership Strategies.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, so it goes even deeper than that, and

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Speaker 2: I'll explain it a bit. The Mothership strategy So this

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Speaker 2: is a firm that is part of a larger sort

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Speaker 2: of digital fundraising industry that exists within both parties, but

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Speaker 2: focusing there on the Democratic side. This firm was started

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Speaker 2: by three former employees who had run the digital fundraising

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Speaker 2: operations for the D Triples, the Democratic Congrettional Campaign Committee.

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Speaker 3: That House, Yeah, the House campaign arm yep, so like

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Speaker 3: the official party committee, and it had spun off and

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Speaker 3: they had left and sort of private ties a tactic

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Speaker 3: that they had sort of perfected while they were at

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Speaker 3: the D triples set.

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Speaker 1: And what cycle were they? Were they there? This is

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Speaker 1: like twenty fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Right, twenty fourteen. They didn't seem to get much traction

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Speaker 2: early on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well and then a certain orangehaired man came down

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Speaker 1: the stairs elevator.

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Speaker 2: Well, it happened actually before that. So they didn't seem

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Speaker 2: to have many clients early on, and their first client

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Speaker 2: was a pack called end Citizens United. If you get

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Speaker 2: these messages you may be familiar with it. It turns

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Speaker 2: out that they had started this pack that three people

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Speaker 2: had started Mothership to be their first client, and so

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Speaker 2: they started.

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Speaker 1: Basically, the consultant needed a client, so they invented the client.

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Speaker 1: Let's create a client. So they were immediately on both

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Speaker 1: sides of the transaction.

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Speaker 2: Okay, got it, And in terms of fundraising. Because of

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Speaker 2: the types of tactics that they were using, it happened

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Speaker 2: to be very effective at raising money, and so just

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Speaker 2: caught the attention of a lot of people who were

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Speaker 2: more were interested in raising a lot of money for

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Speaker 2: their campaign or their cause, and it just sort of

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Speaker 2: took off from there.

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Speaker 1: Anything that makes fundraising easier a consultant is going or

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Speaker 1: a candidate would love to do. In a weird way,

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Speaker 1: I get why this was attractive at first. Oh my god,

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Speaker 1: you mean I don't have to dial for dollars or

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Speaker 1: I don't have to like show up to a fundraiser.

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Speaker 1: I don't to travel to Martha's Vineyard or Napa Valley

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Speaker 1: and suck up to rich people that I really don't

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Speaker 1: have anything in common with. Boy, this would be great.

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Speaker 1: If this really works as great as you tell me

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Speaker 1: it works. Mothership.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, this is the number one complaint camp.

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Speaker 2: Like Kennedy, it's give you all the time. It's like,

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Speaker 2: I am sick and tired of fundraising all the time.

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Speaker 2: And so if someone comes and says I can raise

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Speaker 2: a ton of money for you through small donors, that's

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Speaker 2: going to be attractive. The problem is is once you

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Speaker 2: start seeing the types of messages they're sending and actually

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Speaker 2: who they are getting money from, it becomes a whole

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Speaker 2: different set of questions. It's really that's where the really

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Speaker 2: troubling aspect of this come from, not just the damage

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Speaker 2: it does to the Democratic Party brand, but the more

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Speaker 2: and more I dug into this, it was this isn't really,

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Speaker 2: in my sort of like reading of the data, a

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Speaker 2: very predatory approach to fundraising, to the.

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Speaker 1: Point where if you wanted to make a criminal you

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Speaker 1: might be able to look at this through criminal statutes.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so.

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Speaker 1: I don't think so.

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Speaker 2: I don't think there are any if it is predatory knowledge.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, well I would use the term predatory, not in

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Speaker 4: the uh like illegal sense, but in the like they

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Speaker 4: are doing everything that I believe from my reading of

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Speaker 4: campaign finance law, I do not see anything that they

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Speaker 4: are doing that is technically illegal.

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Speaker 1: So this is technically right right right? So yeah, so

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Speaker 1: when they now, could this be under I mean, could

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Speaker 1: the FTC or could a state attorney general say you're

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Speaker 1: committing borderline fraud slash predator You're you're you're, you're, you're

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Speaker 1: you're using predatory practices to raise money.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So there was a CNN UH like in depth

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Speaker 2: reporting UH investigation on these a thousands of different complaints

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Speaker 2: that had been sent by largely like children of people

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Speaker 2: who had been the children of elderly parents, right of

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Speaker 2: elderly parents, who had given hundreds of thousands of dollars

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Speaker 2: did these fundraising operations. Many of them were suffering from

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Speaker 2: dementia and other forms of cognitive decline, and they were

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Speaker 2: rightfully very upset about what had transpired. And so the

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Speaker 2: complaints are there, but there's not at this moment anything

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Speaker 2: you know, at the federal level that would suggest that

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Speaker 2: this is outright illegal. Now, should the Democratic Party be

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Speaker 2: engaging or condoning this type of activity, I think that's

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Speaker 2: an entirely different question, and they have no obligation to

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Speaker 2: say that this is okay. The problem is the e

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Speaker 2: trip will see the d SEC, the official campaign committees

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Speaker 2: are engaging in these same tactics. They may not be

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Speaker 2: employing Mothership, but they're they're the way in which their

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Speaker 2: fundraising looks a lot like what we see from these

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Speaker 2: more unsavory packs.

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Speaker 1: Let's go back to Mothership, because you ended up discovering that,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what else to call this but a

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Speaker 1: form of money laundering because it was moving money around.

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Speaker 1: Money would be in one place, then it would show

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Speaker 1: up in another pack. Then that pack would take the

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Speaker 1: money that it received from one pack and pay it

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Speaker 1: to another pack, and it all ended up back at mothership.

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Speaker 1: Explain how that loop worked, because you found you'd find

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Speaker 1: one enity and as in Citizens United, would then be

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Speaker 1: working with. And let me get these other entities. You

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Speaker 1: named quite a few of them, and I do think

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Speaker 1: people want to know which names you had. The Progressive

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Speaker 1: Turnout Project, Stop Republicans, National Democratic Training Committee, a couple

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Speaker 1: of campaigns, John Assof's campaign for Senate and Jamie Harrison's

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Speaker 1: campaign for Senate. And it's interesting that Jamie, when I

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Speaker 1: first read your piece, the first campaign I thought about

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Speaker 1: that I thought got scammed by their own fundraising team

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Speaker 1: was Jamie Harris. Because here's a guy, how'd you raise

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Speaker 1: one hundred million dollars but not really have one hundred

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Speaker 1: million dollars? And now you've explained the story of how

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Speaker 1: that happened. So how did you connect and Citizen Gunited

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Speaker 1: and Progressive Turnout Project for instance.

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Speaker 2: So the one of these structures that you see in

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Speaker 2: these pack vilands, so everything needs to be disclosed to

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Speaker 2: the FUC and they're they're usually come in these clusters

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Speaker 2: of packs. So, for instance, there's a cluster of seven

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Speaker 2: packs including Progressive Turnout Project and Stop Republicans and also

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Speaker 2: Stopped Trump. There's a number of pretty high fundrate, high

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Speaker 2: raising packs in this group. They're all run by the

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Speaker 2: same treasure so it's the.

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Speaker 1: Same individual who signs the forms to the FBC. Basically okay, right,

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Speaker 1: and so you can see they share a po box too.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's just the same person. So like you said,

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Speaker 2: he he like reports as being these packs being affiliated too,

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Speaker 2: So it's not. It's not some sort of like hidden secret.

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Speaker 1: Now they make their alternative to the as far as

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Speaker 1: the FBC is concerned, they're like, oh, okay, these facts. These

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Speaker 1: packs are all affiliated, so it's not unusual. So which

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Speaker 1: which tells you Leathership isn't alone here by the way,

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Speaker 1: that this is a semi common tactic.

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Speaker 2: Yes it is, And so what they'll do is though

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Speaker 2: there So, for instance, Stop Republicans, which has raised a

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Speaker 2: lot of money in recent election cycles, it's spent nothing

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Speaker 2: on campaigns or elections. Most of the money that they

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Speaker 2: raised went back to like fund raising fees and consultants.

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Speaker 2: What didn't was transferred over to Pressive Turnout Project, which

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Speaker 2: seems to be an operations hub, and Progressive Turnout Project

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Speaker 2: does appear to employ people for turnout operations. If like

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Speaker 2: I've done a really deep dive into their their campaigns,

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Speaker 2: that spending and maybe fIF teen percent of what they

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Speaker 2: spend goes towards actual turnout operation and independent expenditures, but

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Speaker 2: otherwise the vast majority is not. And so you see

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Speaker 2: all these six packs, only one of them is actually

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Speaker 2: spending on campaigns and the other ones will just raise

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Speaker 2: money and then transfer the money over. But if you're

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Speaker 2: someone who's not wise to what these packs are, which

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Speaker 2: until I looked into it, I wasn't either, you would

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Speaker 2: think I'm getting you know, these text messages from six

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Speaker 2: different operations, right, They're not connected. There's no reasons for

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Speaker 2: me to think they are. This is just a normal

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Speaker 2: way for people to fundraise. But really it's you know,

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Speaker 2: you could unsubscribe from one still get messages from the

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Speaker 2: others and have no idea that they're run by the

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Speaker 2: same person is in the same donor list.

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Speaker 1: Look, if you get I'm somebody who I've signed up

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Speaker 1: for enough mailers that I get these fundraising emails from

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Speaker 1: both parties and from candidates to both parties. The tactics

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Speaker 1: are very similar on both sides. Now they eat this

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Speaker 1: end of the world is coming tactic. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what else to call it, but it's some form of that,

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Speaker 1: like you know and with the Right, with MAGA, it's

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump personally is asking and if he you know,

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Speaker 1: he's keeping he's checking a list, he's looking to see

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Speaker 1: if your name's there. That's sort of but it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's very similar in tone, urgency, agitation and all of this,

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Speaker 1: which which is like you say, it's it's not illegal,

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Speaker 1: but maybe maybe it should be, but it's certainly predatory.

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Speaker 1: But it's been lucrative.

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Speaker 2: And he's been lucrative for the consultants. The amount of

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Speaker 2: money going back to actual things that it that they

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Speaker 2: are claiming to hop as a support is a very

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Speaker 2: small fraction of the overall total. So in terms of

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Speaker 2: you know, being a great thing for digital fundraising consultants. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: the thing about it, like the point you raised about

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Speaker 2: that both parties having very similar tactics, that's absolutely like

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Speaker 2: an astute observation. Republicans are probably even worse on these

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Speaker 2: types of tactics, and Democrats are. They seem to have

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Speaker 2: more of the money going directly back to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know, oh it's even right.

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Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, I mean there is right. In fact,

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Speaker 1: there's some where he demands a piece. If you want

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Speaker 1: to use his list, he's got to get a He

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Speaker 1: basically wants a licensing fee essentially to use his name, name,

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Speaker 1: image and likeness.

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Speaker 2: And I like, one of the things I pondered was,

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Speaker 2: you know, Chris, you know, I thought what was happening

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Speaker 2: was there was like, you know, these sophisticated algorithms that

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Speaker 2: they were employing that they were sending out and doing

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Speaker 2: av testing, so like some people would get one version

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Speaker 2: another a group of people would get another version of message,

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Speaker 2: and they just, you know, over time sort of landed

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Speaker 2: on these types of urgent, ridiculous like all maps messages

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Speaker 2: that you know, to most of us just seemed really

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Speaker 2: off putting, but at scale may have been somewhat effective

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Speaker 2: at fundraising. The more I looked into the So now

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Speaker 2: I don't think that because the types of tactics that

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Speaker 2: are use looks like they just transferred directly directly from

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Speaker 2: the tactics that are used in elder financial fraud schemes.

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Speaker 2: So I did a bunch of reading through the FDC

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Speaker 2: and the ways in which they sort of manipulate people

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Speaker 2: emotionally through this urgency that like making people think they

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Speaker 2: need to make a decision immediately. These are all known tactics,

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Speaker 2: and it was really quite jarring when I started looking

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Speaker 2: through those and being like, oh, I can just categorize

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Speaker 2: most of these messages into one of these different like

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Speaker 2: elder financial fraud tactics, and that was that was a

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Speaker 2: pretty depressing movement, to be honest.

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Speaker 1: You know, Adam, I have a sort of a friend

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Speaker 1: I've become more friendlier with over the years who was

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Speaker 1: a source of mine at the RNC and Quit, I

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Speaker 1: think I have this story right. Essentially quit when he

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Speaker 1: saw a piece of mail that they sent out that

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Speaker 1: got returned and either it was either the woman called

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Speaker 1: or she wrote in and said, hey, I know you

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Speaker 1: need this money. You know tomorrow I don't get my

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Speaker 1: Social Security check for another week. I said, okay, if

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Speaker 1: I wait a week, Well, it was like and it

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Speaker 1: was like he was like, I'm out and I mean,

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Speaker 1: and that dude left politics. He was like he couldn't.

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Speaker 1: He is out of campaign politics altogether. Dr you name.

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Speaker 1: It was just like sick to his stomach, right, it

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Speaker 1: was just one of those hit him and he was out.

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Speaker 1: And you know he's desperate to find any character, you know,

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Speaker 1: left in politics. But it really does prey on older people.

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Speaker 1: And both parties are doing this.

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Speaker 2: And let me give you a couple SATs. So the

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Speaker 2: other aspect of it is it's not like most of

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Speaker 2: his money's coming from people just getting five or ten

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Speaker 2: dollars and then being done with it. And the way

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Speaker 2: they described the tactics the Mothership has described themselves this

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Speaker 2: way I believe as burning churn. So this idea that

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Speaker 2: you're just burning through these donor lists and like, you know,

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Speaker 2: scraping up a little like a few people, like one

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Speaker 2: out of ten thousand who might be donating, Yeah.

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Speaker 1: They don't even care. And they're not even getting a

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Speaker 1: one percent return rate, are they. It's less than a

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Speaker 1: one percent.

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Speaker 2: It's not even close to that. But what I learned

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Speaker 2: was that's not what's happening. So here's some example. So

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Speaker 2: I was looking through the types of people who were

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Speaker 2: giving this money. So the vast majority, so five hundred

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Speaker 2: and forty million of the dollars ra since twenty twenty

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Speaker 2: of these spam packs have come from individuals who have

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Speaker 2: donated at least ten times. But most of that money

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Speaker 2: is coming from a really small group of what I

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Speaker 2: would say like captivated donors, so franstance. There's an eighty

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Speaker 2: nine year old woman in Indianapolis. She's donated to these

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Speaker 2: spam PACs seventy five hundred times, oh my god, and

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Speaker 2: she has given a total of sixty eight thousand dollars.

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Speaker 2: There's an eighty four year old retiree in Ohio who's

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Speaker 2: and two thousand times, totally, totally, not two hundred thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars almost. There's just I have lists of people like this,

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Speaker 2: and you can see where they live. They live in

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Speaker 2: usually sort of middle class or rural areas and not.

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Speaker 1: These aren't wealthy people, and they're just oh my god,

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Speaker 1: so whatever I mean, they're just getting nickel and dime

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Speaker 1: the way the way somebody, you know, the way somebody

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Speaker 1: gets nickel and dime by in app purchases. Sometimes when

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Speaker 1: a kid, you know, when you're five or six year old,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you realize, why am I

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Speaker 1: paying five dollars a week to what? And these elderly

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Speaker 1: and they also end up clicking the make it a

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Speaker 1: recurring payment? Right? Isn't that what?

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Speaker 2: They usually don't click it often, So this is sort

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Speaker 2: of like a dark patterns thing. They often automatically put

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Speaker 2: that on you.

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Speaker 1: You have to uncheck it if you don't want it. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's a negative check. Oh god, this is just tragic.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason. Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So with more than one thousand lawyers across

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00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 1: the country, they know how to deliver for everyday people.

386
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: If you're injured, you need a lawyer, you need somebody

387
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,200
Speaker 1: to get your back. Check out for the People dot com,

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00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: Slash podcast or Dow Pound Law Pound five two nine

389
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: law on your cell phone. And remember all law firms

390
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 1: are not the same. So check out Morgan and Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Their fee is free unless they win. I imagine you almost

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Speaker 1: want to reach out to these people. I'm you've been scammed.

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Speaker 2: Yes. So one good development that I've seen happening is

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Speaker 2: so act Blue. I believe they had been working on

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Speaker 2: this beforehand, but immediately after I published that piece, the

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Speaker 2: CEO from act Blue reached out to me and interested

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Speaker 2: let's talk, and they about a week later they implemented

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Speaker 2: new rules changes so that most of these tactics that

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Speaker 2: I had described would no longer be allowed on the platform.

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Speaker 1: And we're the word mothership using Act blue was at

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Speaker 1: their primary facilitator.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and they The problem is they still are because

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Speaker 2: it's the problem for Act Blue is they're stuck in

404
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Speaker 2: this like hard place where they want to clean up

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Speaker 2: the fundraising like environment that's that's uh, they seem to

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Speaker 2: and they're like putting rules in place, but the party

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Speaker 2: leadership seems to be using these tactics too. This is

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Speaker 2: something that has been pretty problematic, or at least I

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Speaker 2: think in terms of like if they want to enforce

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Speaker 2: this stuff, they would have to kick off the d

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Speaker 2: Triple C. They would have to kick off the d SEC.

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Speaker 2: I literally just got a message from the d s

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Speaker 2: CC this weekend saying that they were going to four

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Speaker 2: x match my donation. And that's not a thing. You

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Speaker 2: can't do that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's illegal. That's actually if you did that, that

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Speaker 1: is a crime, by.

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Speaker 2: The ways, but it's extremely effective for a certain type

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Speaker 2: of bonner who believes that's happening. And you know, so

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Speaker 2: where does that leave you know, act clue? I think

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Speaker 2: they want a clean house, but it's politically you know, is.

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Speaker 1: It politically though? But I mean like this is where

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Speaker 1: you know. I mean, my friend Jining Cornanizer likes to say,

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Speaker 1: they answered all your problems is money, and sometimes the

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Speaker 1: answer to all your uh, the solution every problem is money,

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Speaker 1: and the diagnosis for every problem sometimes is money. Right,

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Speaker 1: how much do they not want to give up? How

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Speaker 1: much is being fun. You know, they make money for

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Speaker 1: anybody that raises money off of their platform. Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: so they make some money for this tax so Mothership

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Speaker 1: they in theory have made a lot of money off

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Speaker 1: of Mothership. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Oh Act Blue, Yes, yeah they have and Act Blues.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: So they just went under a sort of leadership change.

436
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 2: So I think that has something to do with this.

437
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,560
Speaker 2: They've been responsive to me and other people who have

438
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 2: worked in the space about trying to eliminate these tactics

439
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: from the platform. I'm hoping to see more progress in

440
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 2: the near future, and so at least that's a good

441
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 2: signal that something's being done.

442
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,200
Speaker 1: Now, I want you to do that. Big numbers, Yeah,

443
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: tell me how. I still I couldn't believe the number,

444
00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: the amount of money that Mothership has raised through all

445
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: of these packs, and the amount of money that has

446
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: actually been spent on campaigns as they promised to do.

447
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 2: So we can take uh the so they get the

448
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:21,679
Speaker 2: Mothership has raised something like two hundred and eighty like

449
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 2: correctly going to the firm as payments has been getting

450
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 2: like transferred about two hundred and eighty million dollars they have.

451
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: That's how much they've pocketed r Yes, okay.

452
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 2: My estimate is that this is based off of about

453
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,919
Speaker 2: six hundred and eighty million dollars raised.

454
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: Okay, so and so where where's the other four hundred million?

455
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 2: The other four hundred million?

456
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: So if they've pocketed two and eighty two, they've raised

457
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: about six hundred and eighty So let's like round abup

458
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,520
Speaker 1: to eighty six eighty. We're missing about four hundred million.

459
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: Yes, so about of that another one hundred and thirty

460
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 2: two two million I believe was spent on other consulting

461
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 2: firms like related in that space, you.

462
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 1: Brought up a firm called Message Digital LLC.

463
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,280
Speaker 2: That's it's digital. Yes, yeah.

464
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 1: Did you ever who pocketed a twenty two million? Did

465
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: you ever figure out who they are?

466
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 2: Really? Just another They're another democratic fundraising operation. You can

467
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: go look at their website and they have clients like

468
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 2: Chuck Schumer. They're the ones. What their their Their service

469
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 2: that they sell or like they pitch to campaigns and

470
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 2: candidates and consultants, is that they can get around the

471
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 2: like mobile carriers, spam filters, so they know how to

472
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 2: get around and get those messages to us. That seems

473
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 2: to be their pitch. If you read the website and

474
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 2: you can get a sense of why that would be

475
00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:52,159
Speaker 2: a valuable for you know, a spam fundraising firm like

476
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 2: this other.

477
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: Show, right, I got you, Okay, So there's there's that

478
00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,200
Speaker 1: were we got about another two hundred and fifty million here.

479
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, so the other so another about fifteen million of

480
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: that goes to campaign contributions and independent expenditures. Another like,

481
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:14,960
Speaker 2: as far as I can tell, my best estimate is

482
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,639
Speaker 2: another about one p eight million, and I've done like

483
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,919
Speaker 2: much deeper digging into this more recently goes to what

484
00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 2: could be classified is organizational or turnout efforts, okay. And

485
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:31,760
Speaker 2: then another chunk of about ten million goes to refunds

486
00:27:31,800 --> 00:27:34,639
Speaker 2: to donors who said I didn't want to donate. Who's

487
00:27:34,640 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 2: going back my money? And then the rest just sort

488
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 2: of disappears into administrative costs and payroll and so it's hard,

489
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,119
Speaker 2: it's hard to get an exact number where everything's going,

490
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:48,159
Speaker 2: but that from the disbursement data that you I have

491
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 2: access to, those are my best estimers.

492
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: And again seventeen million total to the campaigns themselves.

493
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,439
Speaker 2: Well and most of us going to the d triple CE.

494
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: Around half of the next just the big chunk of

495
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: cash that they just said to the three big committees,

496
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: this isn't necessarily to house. You know, that special election

497
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: House race that they may have been talking about in

498
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:14,440
Speaker 1: the fundraising email may not have gotten a dollar.

499
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:19,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is excluding the money they've raised for people

500
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,359
Speaker 2: like Jamie Harrison. Like I consider that as a different category.

501
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 2: So I think they've raised another like four hundred million

502
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 2: in four campaign like nidates themselves. But I'm looking more

503
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,160
Speaker 2: at the sort of spam pack and they no longer

504
00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:33,879
Speaker 2: have those types of clients. As far as I can

505
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 2: tell that the Nitis are no longer hiring Mothership, there

506
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 2: are other firms that do the same thing that they're

507
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 2: now hiring, or they say peer to be all the

508
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 2: people who had been hired, that had hired Mothership now

509
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 2: have shifted over to other related Mothership.

510
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: Try to explain what they're doing. Did they push back?

511
00:28:53,040 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 2: Did they?

512
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: Yeah? What did they? What did there? What is their explanation?

513
00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,959
Speaker 2: They sort of make the argument, and they put out

514
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 2: a public statement on medium. I can't find it anymore

515
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,760
Speaker 2: than they have taken it down, but they basically made

516
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 2: the argument that look, this is a necessary evil that

517
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: you know, we need to combat the Trump administration and

518
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 2: our health tactics or effectives in like they did not

519
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:22,720
Speaker 2: like they would not respond to it like idiom my

520
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 2: like questions uh, in sort of response to their statements

521
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 2: about like what about these like predit like the why

522
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 2: are all your why is all your money coming from senior?

523
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 2: But why are your tactical look like elder financial fraud?

524
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: They have not addressed that at all. They basically fell

525
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: back on look where where uh, you know, fundraising because

526
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 2: we need to oppose the Trump administration and that's just

527
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 2: a necessary evil. And then they also sort of brought

528
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 2: it out some like candidates who had who had backed

529
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 2: their efforts or like put out statements. So like Cherry

530
00:29:56,480 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 2: Bustos was one of them, and like she came to

531
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,920
Speaker 2: their fence and said, look, I've worked with Mothership and

532
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 2: there's this great organization and they you know, raise a

533
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: bunch of money and so you know, I'm proud of

534
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 2: the work that I've done with them. She used to

535
00:30:11,920 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 2: be the chair of the dtble C, right, So you

536
00:30:14,080 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 2: sort of get the sense that this is, you know,

537
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 2: this connect to the party in a way that is

538
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:20,240
Speaker 2: really troubling.

539
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:24,440
Speaker 1: Well, you know, it's interesting you're booking. Obviously you put

540
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 1: this out in August. You know, we were able to

541
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: finally get time for this for the podcast now here

542
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,680
Speaker 1: at the end of September. But it's actually good timing

543
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: because I don't know if you've been paying attention to

544
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: the debate about the so called autopsy of the twenty

545
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: twenty four campaign that the DNC was and that there's

546
00:30:42,480 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 1: this huge lobbying effort by consultants to basically, you know,

547
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 1: they don't want to be shame for how much money

548
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: they made off of a bad campaign, essentially, and they're

549
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 1: afraid of their names showing up and essentially having happened

550
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: to them what I believe. Look, Mothership earned this, this

551
00:30:59,880 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: is what they did. So you're going to get scrutiny,

552
00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: which you came up with. But I think frankly seeing

553
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 1: what happened with Mothership and realizing there's gonna be a

554
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: lot more people asking questions and if those firm names

555
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 1: get out there, there's going to be deeper dives and

556
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: trying to figure out you know, look, James Carvill sort

557
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:19,280
Speaker 1: of threw it out there without name and names, but

558
00:31:19,320 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: he got angry one day in a rant and he said,

559
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: you know, if you're trying, you know, you can't be

560
00:31:24,360 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: worried about the carried interest lobby when you're trying to

561
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: save democracy. And he was referring to a couple of

562
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: close Harris consultants who were had clients that were worried

563
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: about carried interests going away, you know that in the

564
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: tax code. And you're just like, okay, you know what

565
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: I mean. You just your head goes right in your hand.

566
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: You're like, you know, you're telling us democracy is on

567
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 1: the ballot, but hey about carried interest. You know.

568
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,880
Speaker 2: I think this finally mentally feeds into some of the

569
00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: weaknesses that democrats have experienced in recent years. Right now

570
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 2: and then, like there's this trend in polling data that

571
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 2: is just like shelped out at you, which is when

572
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 2: people are asked what they're most concerned about corruptions, like

573
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 2: at the top of the list. Yugov just did a

574
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:15,280
Speaker 2: poll about what percentage of like what percentage of people

575
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 2: thought that like a member of Congress would accept a bribe.

576
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: It was like seventy one percent of people there, and they're, well.

577
00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: You mean, they're shocked that somebody might accept a bribe

578
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: in public service when the former head of the Border

579
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: Patrol took fifty thousand dollars and they just they didn't

580
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 1: even charge them. They didn't deny it happened. Yeah, well

581
00:32:38,520 --> 00:32:41,320
Speaker 1: we don't have enough evidence to charge. Yeah, but you

582
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 1: got your back of cash.

583
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 2: Okay, they're not wrong. So the public is very concerned

584
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: about public corruption. It is, from what I can tell

585
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: right now in polling data, issue number one that is

586
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:59,120
Speaker 2: a massive opening for the Democratic Party. Anti corruption has

587
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 2: been probably, bar none, the most effective anti authoritarian strategy globally.

588
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: We see tons and tons of examples of it.

589
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 1: It works anytime any parties, any party that's out of power,

590
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: who's trying to get rid of a party, you know,

591
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 1: beat back a party that's been in power, say more

592
00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:21,400
Speaker 1: than eight years, there's always a corruption angle that usually succeeds, right,

593
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 1: it says, one party rule. We all know after about

594
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:27,360
Speaker 1: year eight or nine, somebody's deciding to make money off

595
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: of this, and you start to see it. It happens.

596
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: We've we've experienced it in our lifetimes. We've watched the

597
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: parties do this. It's effective in our democracy. But you're right,

598
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 1: it's times one hundred when it comes to stopping authoritarian.

599
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, and so this is this is the opening democrats.

600
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 2: It's the type of coalition you build that doesn't have

601
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 2: the types of trade offs where you have to you know,

602
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 2: push people to left out of the way or moderates

603
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 2: that they're no longer really important or anything like that.

604
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 2: You don't have those types of trade offs, and it

605
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: appeals to the working lots. So like we're on the

606
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 2: same page of this. I think to the problem is

607
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 2: you look at the same polling gata and people think

608
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 2: Democrats are just as corruptive Republicans. I would personally take

609
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: issue with that, even like the scale of things, but

610
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 2: I think people look at what happens in fundraising. They

611
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: look at the Democratic parties insistence on the need to

612
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 2: raise money from billionaires and mega donors, and they see

613
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 2: that effectively as a type of corruption as well. And

614
00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 2: for Democrats to effectively take on this anti corruption angle,

615
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:34,600
Speaker 2: I think the first thing they need to do is

616
00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 2: clean house, and that starts with their fundraising practices. This is,

617
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 2: you know, beyond the pale, the type of stuff you

618
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,680
Speaker 2: see from these digital fundraising and consultants by anyone evolved

619
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: in this type of thing should have nothing to do

620
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:50,560
Speaker 2: with an anti corruption party, right, Like these consultants who

621
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 2: are upset about this, they you know this not all

622
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:57,440
Speaker 2: consultants on the democratic side, but the most the most

623
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 2: successful consultants appear to be the ones g type of behavior.

624
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: And you know that's so bad.

625
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,919
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. The consultants you know by name

626
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 1: are not the corrupt ones because their name is out

627
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 1: there in some ways. They they they're they're trading on

628
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 1: their own reputations. The most corrupt ones are always the

629
00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,800
Speaker 1: people that do this stuff that's like a layer or

630
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:22,359
Speaker 1: two below that we all don't see. The digital guy,

631
00:35:22,520 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: the phone people, and it's it's always in this arena

632
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: where there's only like a handful of vendors and they

633
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 1: they've become the vendor for like it. It is the

634
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,799
Speaker 1: most corruptible part of the political consulting world. I'm not

635
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 1: saying they are all those guys that do phones and

636
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 1: do this are corrupt. I'm not saying that. But there's

637
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:45,680
Speaker 1: a lot of evidence of corruptibility there in the fundraising

638
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,960
Speaker 1: side because there's just so much cash it and it's

639
00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: moving around all the time. It really is, it's like

640
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 1: any cash business. You know, you you you know, we've

641
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 1: all watched Ozark. It kind of works that way. You

642
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 1: hate to say say it, but it does.

643
00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 2: And the sad irony of this all. So, as I mentioned,

644
00:36:08,040 --> 00:36:10,279
Speaker 2: I've been studying campaign finance for a lot of time,

645
00:36:11,160 --> 00:36:13,600
Speaker 2: Like I know, but spend all my time in this

646
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:17,719
Speaker 2: data and how it affects elections. It really matters in

647
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 2: a lot of ways for American politics, like who we

648
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: select to end for office, and like primaries, this like

649
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,440
Speaker 2: mega donor fundraising or the type of fundraising that's coming

650
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:32,359
Speaker 2: in from these like more corrupted channels. It's almost like

651
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 2: the evidence is it's basically not effective at all. So

652
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 2: like money going to a campaign so they can hire

653
00:36:38,200 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 2: staff and put together an operation is useful. Money spent

654
00:36:42,040 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 2: by super PACs appears to have basically no effect on

655
00:36:45,200 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: both sharing like little to no effect, you know, maybe

656
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: a tenth of a percentage point if you double your

657
00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: opponents like super pac fundraising, you know, just you know,

658
00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 2: tiny little slipper of the population. But to do that,

659
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 2: you're giving your credibility and a party that can fight corruption.

660
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,160
Speaker 2: It's just I don't see the trade off as being

661
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 2: worth it. Consultants get very mad when I say that,

662
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 2: But they're the only ones who do.

663
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,760
Speaker 1: So. All right, let me get you to answer this

664
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: sort of pushback about fundraising tactics, which is which I

665
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 1: hear all the time from my friends on the left. Well,

666
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 1: we don't want to tie one arm behind our back.

667
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, look to you. So first of all, you didn't

668
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 2: tie that arm behind your back. You cut it off

669
00:37:31,080 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 2: and give it to consultants. That's where we're at if

670
00:37:35,520 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: we just want to be realistic about it. But secondly,

671
00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:40,960
Speaker 2: the money you raise there, I just that's not what

672
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: wins contemporary elections. They're raising more money than your opponent.

673
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:48,280
Speaker 2: Having a better party brand is going to win that battle.

674
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:53,320
Speaker 1: Every time Donald Trump has been outspent in twenty sixteen,

675
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty and in twenty twenty four discuss.

676
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 2: That is consistent with the empirical evidence that we have

677
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: that the ad campaign advertising has very small effects. There

678
00:38:07,760 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 2: was this really great study that came out recently that

679
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 2: was that has the highest quality standard of like experimental

680
00:38:14,239 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 2: study on campaign ads. They had Facebook like show ads

681
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: to some people, but randomly have other people not. Then

682
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,319
Speaker 2: they could track all their political behavior after like whether

683
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:28,360
Speaker 2: they supported prompt or Biden. Because it was in twenty twenty,

684
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 2: they found zero effect. That's like the highest level would

685
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: be there's like a thirty thousand people involved in the

686
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 2: in the study, zero effect on their political behavior. But

687
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 2: this is where there's tons of money being spent. And

688
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 2: the other thing that I think is really tragic here

689
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 2: is that the Democrats have this massive built in fundraising

690
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 2: advantage right now that they are squandering that a young

691
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 2: perfect so the young like they are out fundraising Republicans,

692
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: like right now, Republicans in this last election cycle, for

693
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 2: they're if half of their money came from from one

694
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:07,399
Speaker 2: hundred donors, one hundred mega donors, got it. Fifty six

695
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: percent of their money came from people giving over a

696
00:39:09,760 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 2: million dollars.

697
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 1: That's like the Adelson's and Elon mossk in that crowd. Yeah, okay,

698
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:14,680
Speaker 1: got it.

699
00:39:14,719 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: For Democrats, it's about eighteen percent. If you cut that

700
00:39:18,160 --> 00:39:21,880
Speaker 2: eighteen percent off, they still would have outfund raised Republicans.

701
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 1: But so they have more upper middle Basically, they have

702
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,600
Speaker 1: more upper middle class donors than the.

703
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 2: Republican valley like it used to be the other way.

704
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:30,919
Speaker 1: Like this is the law. This goes to the whole

705
00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: loss of the suburban vote. The suburban vote, which once

706
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: lead Republican and therefore they had a lot of the

707
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 1: five thousand dollars donors. Now it's the Democrats that have

708
00:39:41,680 --> 00:39:42,720
Speaker 1: the five thousand dollars dollars.

709
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's good to this. This advantage is just

710
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 2: going to continue to grow if they don't squander it.

711
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 2: Whi's eighty percent of people under forty who are donating

712
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:57,239
Speaker 2: boltics know, I mean federal elections or giving to Democrats,

713
00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 2: exclusively to Democrats. They have won this hire sort of

714
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 2: young professional class that will be that's money is speech.

715
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: Money is speech. How are you going to I mean.

716
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 1: This gets I've I've come, I've come around on campaign finance.

717
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:20,720
Speaker 1: I was a I always like to use the example,

718
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 1: and I don't know if you've ever heard me use

719
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 1: it in some of my apologies if you have, but

720
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,800
Speaker 1: the metaphor I would use was always a the Jeffrey

721
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: Goldblum character in Jurassic Park. This is my issue with

722
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: campaign finance laws because every every time you try one,

723
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 1: it almost seems to create new loopholes. And so Jeffrey

724
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:43,839
Speaker 1: Goldblum said, when when the old man in Jurassic Park said, hey, oh,

725
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: they're not going to breed and Goldblum says, life finds

726
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 1: a way. Well, that would always been my attitude about

727
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 1: money and politics. No matter what you do, money finds

728
00:40:54,600 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 1: a way. Oh, you're not going to let them do

729
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:58,839
Speaker 1: soft money to the parties. Well, we're going to create

730
00:40:58,880 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: five oh one, seed three, and then we're going to

731
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 1: do the Then you know, oh, you're not going to

732
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 1: let this. We're going to do the super pac and

733
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,440
Speaker 1: then we're going to you know, there was always a

734
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:11,279
Speaker 1: new tax gimmick, using the tax code to find another way. Well,

735
00:41:11,320 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 1: this money will only be able to be spent on

736
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 1: political organizing, but it's softer over here. And then we

737
00:41:19,440 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 1: have our hundred dollars of it. And the point was it,

738
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: money always found a way. But we are getting to

739
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:31,319
Speaker 1: the point of absurdity right where every candidate now has

740
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 1: to have their own billionaire. And if you don't have

741
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 1: a sugar billionaire, sugar mommy or sugar daddy, you can't

742
00:41:36,680 --> 00:41:40,239
Speaker 1: run for state wide office in America. And that that's

743
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: when you realize, uh, oh, we have a kleptocracy.

744
00:41:44,280 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, I think that's an excellent analogy, but

745
00:41:48,600 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 2: that fits my reading of the history of campaign finance

746
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,400
Speaker 2: regulation that you do see this pressure. The Supreme Court's

747
00:41:55,760 --> 00:41:59,600
Speaker 2: mostly culpable in the recent version of But is.

748
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:01,760
Speaker 1: That the on was that what you'd like to see?

749
00:42:02,600 --> 00:42:08,959
Speaker 1: You know, I had this. There's this movement to try

750
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: to reinterpret Citizens United and reinterpret the campaign finance, all

751
00:42:13,880 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: using mains a referendum that was passed in Maine. We'll

752
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 1: see what happens there.

753
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean ideally in the long run. Yes, I

754
00:42:24,480 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 2: don't see that as a viable strategy in the near run,

755
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 2: and so, you know, as a pragmatist, I don't see

756
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 2: that as something the Democratic Party, like if they say,

757
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: we want to know constitutional amendment on to band Sitisens United. Fine,

758
00:42:39,200 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: I mean it's like eighty percent under the population supports that,

759
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 2: So you're not going out on the limb there. But

760
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 2: I think we're the real advantage that they could gain

761
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,840
Speaker 2: right now is this is more of a they actually

762
00:42:51,880 --> 00:42:55,320
Speaker 2: don't need this money. If they went back to saying

763
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: we're only going to let people give us up to

764
00:42:57,560 --> 00:42:59,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirty thousand dollars limit that was in

765
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 2: place before or uh for Cystens United, and you know,

766
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,320
Speaker 2: the rest of that money you'll spend on pro democracy stuff.

767
00:43:06,320 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: But you can't give it to us because we don't

768
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,879
Speaker 2: want that appearance of corruption. The Democratic Party did that,

769
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 2: they'd have more than enough money to fund their operations,

770
00:43:15,719 --> 00:43:19,320
Speaker 2: and they would as a as a party, gain a

771
00:43:19,400 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: huge credibility advantage against Republicans because they could say we're

772
00:43:22,640 --> 00:43:25,439
Speaker 2: not the corrupt ones, look what we did. I don't

773
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: see that as a realistic thing that the Democratic Party

774
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 2: will do, but my god, I think it's something that

775
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:35,280
Speaker 2: they would absolutely be advantage from doing because that money,

776
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 2: the amount they can raise from traditional fundraising sources, will

777
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 2: more than make up for what they lose from these

778
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:42,640
Speaker 2: mega donors.

779
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:52,960
Speaker 1: I think we're in a moment. Look, I would have

780
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: been more skeptical of that a couple of years ago,

781
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 1: because it does you know. My my issue is I

782
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:04,560
Speaker 1: can't find an example of somebody losing over campaign finance issues,

783
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 1: right you don't? You know? Are you know? It's one

784
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:10,319
Speaker 1: of those issues that when you ask a voter about it,

785
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, I don't like the system, But when

786
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 1: you ask them what don't you like in general? This

787
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 1: is it's like fifth or six on the list, right,

788
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: you know, And that's and it's like it is a

789
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: prodding issue it's an issue if you tell the voter about,

790
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: you educate them about. Yeah, they are going to be

791
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: pretty They're not going to They're probably going to be

792
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: willing to come your way. But it is one of

793
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:33,759
Speaker 1: those you're trying to get them to agree with you

794
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:37,520
Speaker 1: on a problem. And in politics, you know, the party

795
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 1: that is able to agree with the voter and what

796
00:44:39,360 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: the voter thinks are the problems usually has the advantage.

797
00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:44,400
Speaker 1: And so that's where I've been a skeptic on this.

798
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:51,440
Speaker 1: I say, all that this big, mega rich tech community

799
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,240
Speaker 1: that is trying to buy up land all over the country,

800
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 1: take up the power grid, decide what you and I

801
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,600
Speaker 1: get to see. You know, we're going to have four

802
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 1: families controlling all of media, right that the consolidation the

803
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: Robber Baron type mindset that I think, you know, the

804
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:15,719
Speaker 1: consolidation of wealth connecting it to the campaign finance issue

805
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:16,879
Speaker 1: that I buy.

806
00:45:18,560 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's a risk, but it's one

807
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 2: that I think is well justified given the moment. The

808
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:30,200
Speaker 2: anti oligarchy angle is really important to consider.

809
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 1: Now.

810
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 2: One of my colleagues, Walter sneidel As is staper from

811
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 2: a few years back showing that uh, economic inequality in

812
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,279
Speaker 2: the US is higher than it was at the end

813
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 2: of the Roman Republic or during right before the French Revolution. Right, Like,

814
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 2: we're in pretty extreme territories and it's getting worse and

815
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:52,799
Speaker 2: worse and worse in terms of what we're seeing. These

816
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,360
Speaker 2: are these are types of things that are very you know,

817
00:45:57,280 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 2: destabilizing to democracies. And we've known that for a long time.

818
00:46:00,680 --> 00:46:03,280
Speaker 1: Well, the greatest true the billionaires ever pulled was convincing

819
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 1: the working class that they were on their side.

820
00:46:05,480 --> 00:46:10,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, but even and like there's this Ken Martin, the

821
00:46:10,480 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: chair of the DNC, like that a few months back, like, look,

822
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 2: there are good billionaires and bad billionaires, and we're going

823
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 2: to continue raising money from the good billionaires. I don't

824
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 2: actually disagree with the claim that there are good billionaires

825
00:46:23,600 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 2: out there, but it just comes off as so self serving.

826
00:46:27,880 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: And remember who he thinks is a good billionaire. Half

827
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,919
Speaker 1: the country might think they're not that good, or they're

828
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 1: the son or daughter of somebody that made money the

829
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: wrong way. Like, it isn't going to be as clean

830
00:46:40,560 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: as you think it is, Ken Martin.

831
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 2: And also the like we just have to go back

832
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,280
Speaker 2: to the twenty twenty four election and if you remember

833
00:46:47,320 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: Mark Cuban, who was stumping for Kamala Harris, and at

834
00:46:52,560 --> 00:46:56,239
Speaker 2: one point the Harris campaign had come out pretty forcefully

835
00:46:56,320 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: with a we're going to tax unrealized games on fortunes

836
00:47:00,520 --> 00:47:04,080
Speaker 2: over one hundred million dollars, so affecting a tiny time

837
00:47:04,120 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 2: in slights of the population. Very few people have that

838
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:11,440
Speaker 2: type of money, and it was a pretty populist measure

839
00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 2: had come out of the Biden campaign, and it was

840
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: probably the strongest economic populist message that they had. Mark

841
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 2: Cuban went off script that it would destroy the economy

842
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 2: and like at one of the stub speeches, instead that

843
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:30,000
Speaker 2: if Paris had been elected and gone through with it,

844
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 2: he would can pain against her next time. Right. This

845
00:47:33,080 --> 00:47:36,879
Speaker 2: is back to James Carville's point that if you're really

846
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,920
Speaker 2: chasing this money, their interests are just not aligned with

847
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:43,040
Speaker 2: what a party like the Democrats probably need to do

848
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 2: to regain power, which is not to cater to those

849
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,800
Speaker 2: who already have power, but to cater to a working class.

850
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 2: That these things is completely rigged against them.

851
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 1: You know, in our closing a few minutes here, because

852
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 1: we've gone almost forty five on this topic, proof that

853
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:04,760
Speaker 1: you can you can go along on campaign finance issues.

854
00:48:05,840 --> 00:48:11,239
Speaker 1: What you've been studying this for a long time, You've said,

855
00:48:11,280 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 1: You've said, were there other forks in the road, that

856
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 1: if we'd not taken then we'd be in a better spot,

857
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 1: at least on the campaign finance was I look at

858
00:48:21,800 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 1: McCain fine Gold and think it was a The unintended

859
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:30,200
Speaker 1: consequences made it bad legislation, even though it was it

860
00:48:30,280 --> 00:48:31,399
Speaker 1: was attempting to do good.

861
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 2: Let's say you yeah, so I tend to agree that

862
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,239
Speaker 2: it didn't achieve all its goals. Part of that it

863
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:44,440
Speaker 2: was sort of decapped by what the supret core did

864
00:48:44,480 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 2: in response.

865
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,840
Speaker 1: Sure, we did get it for about ten years, and

866
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:50,439
Speaker 1: I would argue it gutted the parties in a way

867
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: that I don't think we all saw coming, and it

868
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 1: moved the money outside of the parties harder for people

869
00:48:56,719 --> 00:48:58,840
Speaker 1: like you and I to track. That's my this.

870
00:48:59,360 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's also something many political scientists say that the

871
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 2: weakening of the parties as a result of McCain fine

872
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 2: Gold was a negative consequence that was not expected. I

873
00:49:08,920 --> 00:49:12,560
Speaker 2: tend to agree with that that stronger parties tend to

874
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 2: be a little more I don't know, protective of their brands,

875
00:49:16,160 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 2: and I think we've saw that sort of fall off.

876
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:20,360
Speaker 2: The other thing I just want to bring up is,

877
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 2: you know, campaign finances. We think of it as this

878
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:25,960
Speaker 2: like a US thing, but the US is very like

879
00:49:26,560 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 2: perceptional on how we operate campaign fundraising in compared to

880
00:49:31,239 --> 00:49:35,200
Speaker 2: the democracies. It's just not the same thing in Europe

881
00:49:35,400 --> 00:49:38,839
Speaker 2: or or even like even Japan, even in South Korea,

882
00:49:38,880 --> 00:49:42,360
Speaker 2: where it's a big problem, they have much much stricter

883
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:45,720
Speaker 2: regulations on it that make it look nothing like the US.

884
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 2: And so I guess my general point is, yes, there

885
00:49:48,960 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 2: were like it's hard to see where the like missteps were.

886
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,640
Speaker 2: Is just sort of mad starting point. The institutionally was

887
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 2: always going to be very difficult to fix, even for

888
00:49:58,880 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 2: all meaning reformers because of the hurdles there. But the

889
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,280
Speaker 2: truth is the way that we have approached campaign finance,

890
00:50:05,360 --> 00:50:08,440
Speaker 2: this notion that it like money is speech that has

891
00:50:08,480 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 2: nothing to do with how democracy operates worldwide. And I

892
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:16,440
Speaker 2: think having that perspective for moving forward should be helpful

893
00:50:16,600 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 2: for when we do have a moment to engage in

894
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:25,120
Speaker 2: actual institutional reform, which seems like abi will be coming

895
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,880
Speaker 2: around the corner. Because it's hard to say, our institutions

896
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 2: are so unstable right now.

897
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 1: So in the two thousand election, both presidential nominees took

898
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: the took the federal matching funds, which meant they each

899
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 1: agreed to only spend about sixty five million dollars total

900
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:45,880
Speaker 1: in their general election campaign. Twelve years later, Barack Obama

901
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 1: and Mitt Romney each spend a billion dollars. It's one

902
00:50:50,080 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: of the fast So if we hit the billion dollar

903
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:57,719
Speaker 1: per campaign mark in twenty twelve, we just hit the

904
00:50:57,760 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 1: two billions. I mean, we're going to have a five

905
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 1: I assume the twenty twenty eight to twenty thirty two

906
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:07,720
Speaker 1: we're looking at a five billion dollar per party presidential election.

907
00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 2: Oh, we exceeded that in twenty twenty. The amount raised

908
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 2: the federal leven twenty twenty exceeded for both presidents and

909
00:51:16,600 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 2: congressional exceeded twenty billion.

910
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 1: No, right, I knew that, But I'm just talking about

911
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:21,279
Speaker 1: just for the presidency.

912
00:51:21,400 --> 00:51:25,520
Speaker 2: Right, Oh yeah, wow, that's that's very viable. And then

913
00:51:25,560 --> 00:51:28,360
Speaker 2: I guess I think, so what is like advertising cannot

914
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 2: be the most efficient way to spend that at this point.

915
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 2: The thirtieth AD you see in you see this in Pennsylvan.

916
00:51:35,560 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: Well, the joke is just right. Just write a check

917
00:51:38,239 --> 00:51:39,920
Speaker 1: to the voter that you need. I mean, at this

918
00:51:40,000 --> 00:51:43,760
Speaker 1: point right where you're fighting over the last forty thousand

919
00:51:44,000 --> 00:51:46,960
Speaker 1: swing voters in Michigan, you know, buy I'm a new

920
00:51:47,200 --> 00:51:49,440
Speaker 1: buy them a new fishing vote. I mean, my goodness,

921
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm being facetious, but we're it. There is

922
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 1: an inefficiency about this right where we have fewer swing

923
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:02,480
Speaker 1: voters than ever and more money per swing voter to spend.

924
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the alternative is more of it spent

925
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:09,280
Speaker 2: on mobilization. So that's where we see variation in elections,

926
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 2: is these turn out differentials and democratically like more motivate

927
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 2: and they turn out a high rates and Republicans that

928
00:52:15,000 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 2: swamps any sort of who's winning the swing voters in

929
00:52:17,560 --> 00:52:21,480
Speaker 2: recent elections. It's not an easy thing to do. So

930
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:23,840
Speaker 2: it's not clear that spending money on that type of

931
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:28,160
Speaker 2: mobilization will yield the types of returns. But I don't know.

932
00:52:28,200 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 2: I look at the New York City election, which is

933
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 2: not representative of the country, but the youth turnout that

934
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 2: man Danny saw was off the chart. I've never seen

935
00:52:39,640 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 2: anything like it in terms of like young people were

936
00:52:42,520 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 2: turning out at nearly the same rates as old people

937
00:52:44,719 --> 00:52:47,239
Speaker 2: in the unit in a US election. It's just not

938
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 2: something you see. And so I you know, and his

939
00:52:51,360 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 2: stity of using money is like he raised up to

940
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:55,560
Speaker 2: the limits that stop sending me money. I don't need

941
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,840
Speaker 2: it anymore, but I need volunteers. So maybe there's a

942
00:52:58,880 --> 00:53:02,920
Speaker 2: different model that is less reliant on what you can

943
00:53:02,960 --> 00:53:06,839
Speaker 2: spend money to do and more reliant on traditional mobilizing

944
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 2: and saying like I don't need your money, I need

945
00:53:09,040 --> 00:53:10,560
Speaker 2: your help, all right, but let.

946
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 1: Me get you. Let me get a pep peeve of

947
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 1: mine that's in new the state you teach it. The

948
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:21,320
Speaker 1: California referendum process feels like a system that only gives

949
00:53:21,320 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 1: political consultants a reason to live in the state of California.

950
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 1: That the amount of money that two entities spend against

951
00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 1: each other. I mean, the fight over mobile sports gambling

952
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,320
Speaker 1: is probably the best example where you had each side

953
00:53:37,360 --> 00:53:40,400
Speaker 1: was you know, there was no good side. It was

954
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 1: we want to be the monopoly. No, we want to

955
00:53:42,760 --> 00:53:45,440
Speaker 1: be the monopoly, and we're going to We're going to

956
00:53:45,520 --> 00:53:49,080
Speaker 1: make you, the voter, decide which side is least evil

957
00:53:49,120 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 1: to be your monopoly in sports gambling. You're also going

958
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:57,040
Speaker 1: to see probably half a billion dollars just on this

959
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 1: redistricting initiative.

960
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is, you know, so in some ways it's

961
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 2: more democratic because it is broken away from sort of

962
00:54:09,680 --> 00:54:12,200
Speaker 2: the type of quid block you can see in legislative institutions.

963
00:54:12,440 --> 00:54:14,799
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's the one, the one differ. But yeah,

964
00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 1: the one thing I say that you could defend that

965
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: I'll defend. At least they're going to the voters with

966
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,480
Speaker 1: this disenfranchising idea, but at least they're asking for the

967
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,280
Speaker 1: voters to approve disenfranchisement.

968
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,480
Speaker 2: But any god if I could. But I completely share

969
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 2: your uh right with the way that it often operates.

970
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,720
Speaker 2: Often it's just too special interests trying to get upper hand.

971
00:54:35,920 --> 00:54:39,320
Speaker 2: It's and there should I wish there was more editing

972
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 2: of that process, uh, and that we had an institution

973
00:54:42,520 --> 00:54:44,200
Speaker 2: set up so that that just wasn't you know, we

974
00:54:44,320 --> 00:54:46,760
Speaker 2: actually asked questions that were of relevance to the public.

975
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 2: I was voting on a ballot measure about what like

976
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:56,240
Speaker 2: like kidney dialysis like regulations, so I have no about did.

977
00:54:56,120 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 1: You wonder, like why the hell is this even on

978
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 1: the ballot for people for lay people to decide dialysis regulation.

979
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 2: Right, Well, I knew why because they didn't get what

980
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,800
Speaker 2: they wanted out of the legislature, so they went to

981
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:09,360
Speaker 2: a consultant. They figured out how to get it on

982
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 2: the ballot. So yes, I mean I think there's there's

983
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,880
Speaker 2: a lot of craft that goes on in that process.

984
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:20,319
Speaker 2: You know, it's and it's not necessary. So again, like

985
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:23,520
Speaker 2: as someone who's more of a reformer, I would absolutely

986
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 2: put much more limitations on the types of things that

987
00:55:27,000 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: should appear on ballots.

988
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:33,399
Speaker 1: Well, Adam, you're why your analysis and investigation and what's

989
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:35,680
Speaker 1: your your substec is called on data and democracy? Is

990
00:55:35,719 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 1: that right? Yeah? I highly recommend it. Go check it out.

991
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:44,839
Speaker 1: It's it's it's methodical in all the right ways. And

992
00:55:44,880 --> 00:55:48,920
Speaker 1: this is sort of this is independent journalism at its best.

993
00:55:49,640 --> 00:55:53,040
Speaker 1: Because you're not. I will tell you. I tried to

994
00:55:53,040 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 1: do an audit. I was obsessed. After twenty twelve, I

995
00:55:55,719 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: tried to get NBC and partner with another news organization

996
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 1: because we always worry, we always worry about where money

997
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:04,319
Speaker 1: comes from. Well we never actually do what you did,

998
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 1: which where does this money go? And I thought a

999
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,080
Speaker 1: billion dollars. Look, I know some of it's going to

1000
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:13,440
Speaker 1: the TV stations, but not all of it. Right, who's

1001
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 1: making you know, you know, besides you know Verizon cell

1002
00:56:17,080 --> 00:56:20,680
Speaker 1: cell phones and at T cell phones. Who's making so

1003
00:56:20,800 --> 00:56:24,719
Speaker 1: much money off of the industry that is politics? But

1004
00:56:25,680 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's a it's a tough thing to

1005
00:56:28,560 --> 00:56:32,800
Speaker 1: get people excited about and and it and yet it's

1006
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 1: you know, it's arguably what's weakening the democracy more than

1007
00:56:36,960 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 1: anything else we're dealing with. Ill.

1008
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:43,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, thank you, and I agree, and thanks for

1009
00:56:43,280 --> 00:56:46,880
Speaker 2: having me on. I think it's to man, great conversation.

1010
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:47,920
Speaker 2: You really need to.

1011
00:56:47,840 --> 00:56:51,279
Speaker 1: Get it when you when people take your class, what

1012
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:54,440
Speaker 1: are they at Stanford? I'm just curious what what what

1013
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:58,400
Speaker 1: do you spa What are your specific areas of political

1014
00:56:58,400 --> 00:56:59,200
Speaker 1: science that you teach.

1015
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:02,480
Speaker 2: So I teach intro to American politics.

1016
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 1: The big big anybody that all the athletes, everybody gets

1017
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,239
Speaker 1: into that class, right, that.

1018
00:57:07,280 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 2: Was retitled in Defensive Democracy. So I tase that with

1019
00:57:10,840 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 2: my colleague Kim Jefferson. I teach Americans book constitutions, and

1020
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:19,400
Speaker 2: I teach machine learning and politics, so the institution and

1021
00:57:19,520 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: data big person.

1022
00:57:20,920 --> 00:57:26,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and at a place like Stanford. That's actually that's

1023
00:57:26,120 --> 00:57:30,000
Speaker 1: probably next level potentially the opportunity to be next level

1024
00:57:30,280 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 1: stuff and understanding that that area, because I do think

1025
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:38,120
Speaker 1: I do think a lot of politicians get taken by

1026
00:57:38,600 --> 00:57:41,200
Speaker 1: people coming in from the tech world saying, oh, I

1027
00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 1: can do all of this, and they sort of like

1028
00:57:43,760 --> 00:57:46,360
Speaker 1: the way a mechanic can con somebody who doesn't know

1029
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:48,959
Speaker 1: anything about cars, Oh, you need a new Johnson rod

1030
00:57:49,520 --> 00:57:52,080
Speaker 1: that you see sometimes the tech community. So it's good

1031
00:57:52,160 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: to see political people getting a little bit of tech education,

1032
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 1: because I do think sometimes those people take advantage of

1033
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: the lack of knowledge that say it Chuck Schumer and

1034
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:05,120
Speaker 1: his chiefest staff have for this stuff.

1035
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:11,720
Speaker 2: Wow, absolutely, And I do. And that is sort of

1036
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:14,480
Speaker 2: one of the public services I'm trying to provide, is,

1037
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 2: you know, bring data in empirical evidence in ways more

1038
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 2: accessible so that people who are not just as such

1039
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:25,240
Speaker 2: a maker's but the public and so to see through

1040
00:58:25,280 --> 00:58:26,880
Speaker 2: some of the things that they sort of feel are

1041
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 2: wrong but don't really have to have a asappoint too.

1042
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 1: Well. If the DNC is trying to turn the page

1043
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: and rebrand, embracing an investigation like this would probably be

1044
00:58:38,320 --> 00:58:40,160
Speaker 1: a step in the right direction. I just don't know

1045
00:58:40,200 --> 00:58:42,800
Speaker 1: if the leader. I don't know if the current leaders

1046
00:58:42,880 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 1: that the party has right now are ready for that

1047
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:49,240
Speaker 1: kind of reform. I don't see evidence of it, do you.

1048
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 2: No, I'm quite so. Part of my analysis is I've

1049
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:54,200
Speaker 2: looked at the leadership and they tend to it. So

1050
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:57,200
Speaker 2: keing Jeffrey is about eighty percent of his small donors,

1051
00:58:58,280 --> 00:59:00,640
Speaker 2: So he's raised three million dollars from small owners the

1052
00:59:00,640 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 2: selection cycle. Eighty percent of those donors have also given

1053
00:59:03,760 --> 00:59:06,640
Speaker 2: to these fan packs. Then he uses many of the

1054
00:59:06,640 --> 00:59:10,360
Speaker 2: same tactics, and you can look at his Facebook ads

1055
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:13,000
Speaker 2: and see who he's targeting, and his consultants are targeting

1056
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 2: people who are sixty five plus almost exclusively, And so

1057
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:20,280
Speaker 2: I don't see that being a likely scenario. But you know,

1058
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 2: I tell people, this is the Year of the Snake,

1059
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 2: is the year where it get like a Chinese horterscope,

1060
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 2: you know, the skin sheds and there's renewal. And the

1061
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:32,560
Speaker 2: Democratic Party looks like it's going under a renewal and

1062
00:59:32,600 --> 00:59:35,280
Speaker 2: I think, I think there's a lot of energy in

1063
00:59:35,760 --> 00:59:36,440
Speaker 2: sort of reform.

1064
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:38,680
Speaker 1: So I who knew that the Year of the Snake

1065
00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:44,160
Speaker 1: would bring about renewal rather than something more to very

1066
00:59:44,560 --> 00:59:47,400
Speaker 1: I like that the Year of the Snake. We're shedding

1067
00:59:47,400 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 1: our skin, we're shedding our brand. Anyway, Adam, this is terrific.

1068
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 1: Appreciate your time well, Thank you so much