WEBVTT - What Growing Starlings Need: USCIT, GSEs, SBET 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:09.559 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. That's your body battery. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:12.480 Oh my god, I slept terribly last night. I'm so 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:16.239 glad you asked. This is bad. I'm at seventeen. I 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:18.599 woke up in my body battery. It was at fifty one. 0:00:18.720 --> 0:00:21.280 Usually I wake up in the eighties or the low nineties. 0:00:21.480 --> 0:00:22.880 So what was wearing on you? 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:28.640 I'm moving tomorrow. I'm psyched. I'm going back to New Jersey. 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:29.640 It's where I belong. 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:31.480 I thought you were going to say you're a stressed 0:00:31.480 --> 0:00:32.200 about your bird. 0:00:32.320 --> 0:00:34.160 Oh god, I'm so glad you brought up the bird. 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:36.080 So, Katy is a bird? 0:00:36.400 --> 0:00:37.000 Have a bird? 0:00:37.159 --> 0:00:39.360 So this is like the Katy's Exotic pet hower. 0:00:39.600 --> 0:00:41.600 Yeah. I have a lot to say about this bird. 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:43.080 So he's a European starling. 0:00:43.200 --> 0:00:45.479 Sure, by the way, one of my proudest moments. And like, 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:47.320 you didn't really notice this, but you showed me like 0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:49.360 two pictures of this bird on your phone. Yeah, he's 0:00:49.360 --> 0:00:50.879 like pretty small on this pictures. And I was on 0:00:50.920 --> 0:00:53.800 your phone and I was like, oh, a starling. You're like, yes, 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:56.000 it's the starling. I was like, yes, yeah, you closed 0:00:56.320 --> 0:00:57.240 the bird identifier. 0:00:57.440 --> 0:01:01.440 Yeah, Well they're super common around these parts because they're 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:06.600 an invasive species, which explains why now we're in possession 0:01:06.600 --> 0:01:09.560 of the bird. My dad actually found him at my parents' house, 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:13.320 like as a creepy crawley little like no feathers, alien 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.479 baby thing. And I called the Raptor Trust and they said, 0:01:16.560 --> 0:01:19.040 you know, because it's a non native species, we can't 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.480 help it. They said, try to return to the nest. 0:01:22.520 --> 0:01:25.120 I tried that, I couldn't find the nest. And I said, 0:01:25.200 --> 0:01:28.280 hypothetically speaking, how hard would it be to raise this bird? 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.360 And they said, actually, it's really easy to hand raise 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.160 European starlings. So that's what we've done. 0:01:34.440 --> 0:01:36.200 He's sitting here at the podcast right now. 0:01:36.600 --> 0:01:40.200 My parents are taking care of him at my direction. 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:42.480 It's kind of fun because it feels like they're my employees. 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:44.560 How many like video calls? Are you doing a day 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:45.240 with your parents? 0:01:45.240 --> 0:01:47.760 Many? Actually have a new photo to show you now 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.760 he's about three to four weeks old. I'm really proud 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:53.000 of this photo, not that anyone listening can see it. 0:01:53.320 --> 0:01:56.360 Hold on put in. My dad texted it to me 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:57.080 this morning. 0:01:57.240 --> 0:01:58.960 You know, we can put it in my email. 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:00.720 Oh my god. Yeah, Well I won't put this photo. 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:02.120 Look at him. 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:03.720 Oh he's a bird. 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:06.840 Yeah, he's a real bird now, so we want to 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:11.120 release him? So no, not yet. There's three important milestones 0:02:11.320 --> 0:02:13.880 that this bird needs to pass before we can think 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:16.120 about releasing him to the wild. He needs to be 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:19.079 able to perch. He's getting better. My mom has been 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:21.120 putting him on a stick and he will perch on 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:24.360 the stick. He needs to be able to fly. Obviously 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.320 he's flapping around. He's not flying yet. 0:02:27.560 --> 0:02:30.040 Is your mom like clapping our arms to demonstrate to him? 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:33.480 That's what the conversation we keep having is we're not birds, 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:36.760 so it's not a bird. It's really hard. And the 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:38.240 third thing he needs to be able to do is 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:41.280 feed himself. The hand of God has been feeding him 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:46.520 mush mush for weeks now, so he needs to you know, Oh, 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:49.840 I'm so glad you asked. So high protein dry cat food. 0:02:49.880 --> 0:02:53.399 You soak it for you know a while. I've been 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:57.840 doing a hard boiled egg and then you mash it up. Yeah, 0:02:58.000 --> 0:03:01.240 it's kind of feels bad, hag to a bird, but 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.519 he doesn't know. And then I have this like egg 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:09.440 shell mix it's made for chickens to try to give 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:12.680 them more calcium so they lay better eggs. But basically, 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:16.200 what starling, baby, Starling, growing Starling's need is a lot 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:19.160 of protein and a lot of calcium. So this mix 0:03:19.320 --> 0:03:21.760 seems to be working pretty well. I've adjusted it as 0:03:21.800 --> 0:03:24.840 he's gotten a little bit older. As the photo shows, 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.800 he looks like a real bird, so we'll see if 0:03:27.840 --> 0:03:31.120 his bones will support himself as he continues to learn 0:03:31.160 --> 0:03:31.960 how to perch and fly. 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:33.840 Well, I hope you will bring him into the podcast 0:03:33.880 --> 0:03:34.280 before you. 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:38.360 Yeah. Well, the thing is, and I promise we'll move 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:42.080 on soon, is that if he's not able to be released, 0:03:42.200 --> 0:03:44.160 and we're not going to release him to a certain death, 0:03:44.200 --> 0:03:47.120 if he isn't meeting these milestones, then we just have 0:03:47.200 --> 0:03:50.520 a bird now, which isn't the worst thing. 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:53.240 No, it's clearly the outcome you're rooting for. All right, 0:03:53.560 --> 0:03:55.080 I think we're done. We'll see you next week. 0:03:55.200 --> 0:03:57.000 Yeah, no, I think that that was a good update. 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:02.520 And yeah, hello, come to the Money Stuff Podcast. You're 0:04:02.520 --> 0:04:05.720 a weekly podcast where we talk about stuff related to money. 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:08.080 I'm Matt Levigne and I write the Money Stuff column 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:09.360 for Bloomberg Opinion. 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.520 And I'm Katie Greifeld, a reporter for Bloomberg news and 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:12.920 an anchor for Bloomberg Television. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:15.040 Hey, there's been some tariff news. 0:04:15.280 --> 0:04:18.160 Yeah. I feel like we have to timestamp this conversation 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:21.080 because everything is changing very rapidly. 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:24.320 We're recording this at four o'clock on the Thursday, May 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:24.960 twenty ninth. 0:04:25.279 --> 0:04:29.200 Yeah, and about twenty four hours ago or less than that. 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.160 A court, which I learned existed. 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:33.800 So U asked Court for International Trade. 0:04:33.960 --> 0:04:39.120 Yeah, based in Manhattan. Sure, yeah, so it blocked the 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:43.279 the tariffs that Trump put on on Liberation Day. 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:46.279 Yeah, most of his tariffs are, yeah, the Liberation Day tariffs, 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:49.560 and actually like the pre Liberation Day like Canada and 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:53.440 China tariffs, the opioid tariffs, the personal tariffs, those were 0:04:53.480 --> 0:05:02.440 all blocked by the court as of like Thursday afternoon. 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:05.800 The Appeals Court for the Federal Circuit, which is like 0:05:05.839 --> 0:05:08.719 the appeals court the handles that you also just learned exist. 0:05:08.760 --> 0:05:10.960 That the handles it feels from the court from the 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:15.000 International Trade. That court at a temporary stay, so it 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:17.159 could like consider whether to put a longer stay. So 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:19.600 everything's very much in flex. But yeah, the Court for 0:05:19.680 --> 0:05:22.440 International Trade said these tariffs are illegal. 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.000 Yeah, and it seems like we're heading to the Supreme Court. 0:05:25.279 --> 0:05:28.480 Well, I mean certainly, yeah, yeah, yes, yeah. Probably won't 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.160 be at the Supreme Court by the time this podcast 0:05:30.240 --> 0:05:31.200 air is on Friday. 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:34.240 Probably not. But you know, crazy things have happened. I mean, 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:38.000 coming into this morning, futures were up a ton on 0:05:38.040 --> 0:05:39.919 the S and P five hundred because it was like, Okay, 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:42.720 the trade war's over. It's not. It seems like the 0:05:42.760 --> 0:05:45.360 consensus that has emerged is that Trump has plenty of 0:05:45.400 --> 0:05:49.560 other tools to put on tariffs somehow, And I don't 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:53.760 know what this does to the US negotiating stance. It 0:05:53.800 --> 0:05:56.240 feels like it lessens it by quite a bit. 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:58.840 I guess that's right. I don't know. It's just like 0:05:58.920 --> 0:06:03.080 it feels like the US negotiating stance is so mercurial 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:08.320 and so unreliable that I'm not sure how much it 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:10.479 affects the negotiating stents or going. On the one hand, 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:12.400 as you said, he has a lot of tools to 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:15.960 put on tariffs, and if you are a trade partner 0:06:16.160 --> 0:06:18.960 in negotiations with him, the threat has gone from I 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.360 will put on whatever tariffs I like, pursuing to my 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:25.240 unlimited authority to put on tariffs too. I will find 0:06:25.279 --> 0:06:28.400 some stuff to do and it'll be super annoying and confusing. 0:06:28.560 --> 0:06:30.400 It's like that's not that much better, right, That's still 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:34.960 a pretty bad threat. And in some ways, I feel 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:36.480 like a lot of what I read about people who 0:06:36.480 --> 0:06:38.520 are in the posture of negotiating with Trump, like you 0:06:38.600 --> 0:06:41.320 read about this, and like the situation with Harvard, right, 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:46.520 people worry about making deals because he is not a 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:50.039 reliable interlocutor and can always just change the deal and 0:06:50.080 --> 0:06:53.360 there's not a lot you can do about it. In 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.719 some ways, like you having a little court supervision might 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:58.840 be kind of good for negotiating postures. I don't know 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:01.280 that's true, but like it's just like it's nice that 0:07:01.320 --> 0:07:05.560 there's like just a soup song of like law here, right, 0:07:05.880 --> 0:07:09.320 and like procedures, because you know, I wrote about this today. 0:07:08.720 --> 0:07:11.400 There's in some ways this is a complicated case. There's 0:07:11.440 --> 0:07:14.640 all these statutes, there's all these questions of like what 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.840 things should be left to the executive's discretion. But in 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.200 many ways it's a very very simple case, which is 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:21.840 that the Constitution of the United States just like a 0:07:21.880 --> 0:07:23.440 real document. You can read it like it's a real 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:26.400 thing that exists, right, Like, not everyone involved in the 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:28.440 government has read it. But like, you know, there's like 0:07:28.520 --> 0:07:31.440 a real document that people at least say they care about. 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:34.040 The Constitution just says the Congress has the power to 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:36.040 impose taffs and the president doesn't. So like all this 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:39.680 stuff of like executive orders imposing tariffs is really like 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.760 on a first order analysis, just not what the Constitution says. 0:07:44.800 --> 0:07:47.080 And I think that's kind of the court starting point here. Yeah, 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:51.200 so it seems like kind of simple stuff and there's 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:55.200 more complicated stuff, but it is in some ways a 0:07:55.240 --> 0:07:59.440 relief to see that the Constitution still has some controlling power. 0:08:00.200 --> 0:08:02.680 Yeah, that does seem like something a couple hours that 0:08:02.760 --> 0:08:03.560 you would root for. 0:08:03.960 --> 0:08:05.240 I do. I'm weird like that. 0:08:05.320 --> 0:08:09.000 Yeah, when it comes into the negotiating stance, the standpoint 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:12.200 that I've seen bandied about is basically, if you're another 0:08:12.200 --> 0:08:15.720 country negotiating with the US, like this kind of removes 0:08:15.720 --> 0:08:18.240 the urgency or the incentive to make a deal with 0:08:18.280 --> 0:08:20.880 the US because now it's in flux. You know how 0:08:20.960 --> 0:08:24.400 much power Trump actually has to enact these tariffs. 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:29.239 Yeah, that's right. But you wouldn't that against him having 0:08:29.280 --> 0:08:32.160 a lot of power to do whatever he wants, if. 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:35.600 You would, I don't know, yeah, yeah, I don't know. 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:38.120 The one can say spring quick tomorrow. 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.400 Yeah, at least on this Thursday. The consensus that has 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:43.320 seemed to emerge throughout the day. And you've seen this 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:45.880 in like the slow bleed of the S and P 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:49.160 five hundred from you know, our pre market euphoria was 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.560 this just turns up the volume so much on the 0:08:52.600 --> 0:08:55.719 trade policy noise because who knows what's going to happen and. 0:08:55.679 --> 0:08:59.120 Not other noise, right, I mean, like one overhang to 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:03.439 finance is how much rule of law is there? And 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.079 every time the court says Trump can't do something, you 0:09:07.120 --> 0:09:11.640 have wider variant in the outcome of how much rule 0:09:11.679 --> 0:09:13.560 of fla is there because like maybe you'll be like, 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:17.200 oh yeah, the constitution does say that never mind, or 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:20.880 maybe like Peter Navara said, nothing has changed after a 0:09:20.960 --> 0:09:23.400 court said the terriss around constitutional Like how did that's 0:09:23.400 --> 0:09:24.440 like ating posture? 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.400 It was kind of funny that this all happens within 0:09:27.520 --> 0:09:30.600 hours of Trump being told about the taco trade. The 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:35.640 tacos trade, taco trade being Trump always chickens out. It 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:36.680 was coined by an. 0:09:36.559 --> 0:09:38.240 FT columnist Rob Armshuk at the FT. 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.439 Yeah, yeah, basically that okay, Trump comes out with this 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:45.880 big announcement, you know, we're going to slap a gazillion 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.280 percent tariff on so and so, and then you know, 0:09:49.320 --> 0:09:52.480 inevitably it's walked back, and that's the taco trade. You 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:55.880 bet on this is going to be walked back. And 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.760 Trump was told about that in the Oval Office, and 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.240 he was upset, as you would imagine, and said, no, 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.160 this is negotiating. This is how it's done, which you know, 0:10:04.200 --> 0:10:06.120 maybe there's some truth to that, but you know, as 0:10:06.400 --> 0:10:09.200 an investor, I can see how you could also turn 0:10:09.240 --> 0:10:11.400 that into a trade, even though it feels like, you know, 0:10:11.480 --> 0:10:13.720 in the last couple of weeks or so, it's become 0:10:14.080 --> 0:10:18.400 less profitable because it feels like the shock value is fading, right, right, right. 0:10:18.440 --> 0:10:21.000 So a couple of things. One like Trump always chickens 0:10:21.000 --> 0:10:24.720 out is the insulting to him phrasing of it. Yeah, 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:30.080 but the trade is when a drastic tariff announcement comes out, 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:33.360 the actual result will be less than that, either because 0:10:33.400 --> 0:10:35.000 of the negotiation or because you checked, like you can 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:36.720 be agnostic about the cause, or you can just say, like, 0:10:36.800 --> 0:10:39.160 this isn't as bad as it sounds. The second thing 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:43.200 I want to say is that Lewis Astroth at ft Alphaville, 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:46.400 like apparently got jealous of his colleagues ability to quinna 0:10:46.840 --> 0:10:49.280 term that became so famous, so he wrote a bunch 0:10:49.280 --> 0:10:53.440 of other potential acronyms, like Mexican food themed acronyms, and 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:55.880 the one I liked was takita, which is Trump always 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.439 quickly undoes initial trade offensive just like a little thing. 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:02.800 It's more a specific about the thing that's happening. The 0:11:02.840 --> 0:11:04.800 other thing I want to say is that a reader 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:06.880 emailed me to be like, would it be a good 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:11.000 trade if you were a journalist to short the market 0:11:11.240 --> 0:11:14.800 and then ask Trump about the taco trade, because like 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:17.079 the mechanism there is like you asked Trump about the 0:11:17.120 --> 0:11:20.200 taco trade and he gets really mad, and then he 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:22.720 says I'll never chicken out again, and tarriffs get higher, 0:11:23.080 --> 0:11:25.400 the market drops, Like I think, like you could have 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:28.559 imagined for a second that like Trump getting mad about 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:32.439 the phrase taco trade could have been bad for stock prices, 0:11:32.559 --> 0:11:34.440 but of course it was quickly followed by the trade 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:37.719 cord ruling, which is good for stack prices. So it's 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.400 a little hard to isolate the impact of getting Trump 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:42.240 mad about the taco trade Yeah. 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:45.720 That's pretty funny. It could work if he had explicitly 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:48.760 said I'm going to tear iff even harder. Right now, 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:49.679 I think. 0:11:49.480 --> 0:11:51.400 That it would have been reasonable to think that he 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:54.480 might have thought that. But then, you know, events moved on. 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:56.000 Yeah, that's what happens a lot. 0:11:56.160 --> 0:11:58.040 That's kind of the real core of the taco trade, 0:11:58.040 --> 0:11:59.480 which is events just keep moving on. 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.560 Yeah. Well, it'll be interesting to see what happens to 0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:07.320 the taco trade as we continue to muddle through whether 0:12:07.400 --> 0:12:10.400 or not these tariffs are illegal and what other types 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:12.400 of terrifts were going to get. There's all these different 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:16.079 tariffs that this ruling doesn't cover. When you think about 0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:18.880 steel and aluminum for example, Well. 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:25.000 So the Liberation Day tariffs are ten percent to you know, 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:28.079 one hundred and fifty percent towers on everything, right, it's 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.480 ten percent baseline, But then every country had like quote 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.880 unquote reciprocal tariffs that were much higher. Amazing calculation of 0:12:33.920 --> 0:12:35.640 the trade deficits. It's like the whole thing. It was 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:39.800 like truly universal, and it was basically you talk about 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:41.760 like steel taffs, there's like you have like a sort 0:12:41.800 --> 0:12:44.320 of national security justification or whatever right you have some 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:48.200 theory behind steel tiers. But like this the Liberation Day tariffs, 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:50.679 where the US runs a trade deficit and we want 0:12:50.679 --> 0:12:52.280 to stop that, and so we have tariffs that are 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:57.440 calculated through some formula designed to zero the trade deficit essentially, right, 0:12:57.840 --> 0:13:02.000 And the court said you can't do that. The law 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:06.439 that he used AEPA International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.280 nineteen seventy seven. The AEPA allows you to respond to 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:12.600 an emergency, and if you have tariffs that are responsive 0:13:12.600 --> 0:13:14.800 to an emergency, that's fine, but like, it can't be 0:13:14.840 --> 0:13:17.360 the case that all international trade for the last thirty 0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:19.760 years is an emergency. Like this is like too much, 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.560 it's like too much power to the executive. So you 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:26.360 can't do that. But can you find specific goods to 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:29.400 tariff and use other laws that say you have like 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:33.840 specific economic tariffing powers, like maybe probably often there are 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:35.680 more limits in those laws if you have to like 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.640 do fact finding and like put out a report and 0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:42.200 they're time limited, right, So it's not as completely broad 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:44.240 as the powers that they claimed under AYEPA, which is 0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:45.959 why they did the AEPA stuff. They're like, we're you 0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.760 do everything all at once with no you know, review, 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.280 no fact finding. So AEPA was the law they thought 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.400 they could use for that. If they can't use that, 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:57.440 then they have to find other laws which will be 0:13:57.480 --> 0:13:59.400 a little bit more narrow, but you can still do 0:13:59.440 --> 0:13:59.960 a lot of terror. 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:04.360 Yeah, I mean, there's section two thirty two, for example, 0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:07.720 that's what's being used on steel, aluminum, vehicle and auto parts. 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.679 There's other laws as well, but usually there's some investigation 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.240 associated with him, so it takes months versus President Trump 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:17.439 is sitting in the Oval office and he signed something. 0:14:17.280 --> 0:14:22.120 Because again, like the Constitution says that Congress can make tariffs. Yeah, 0:14:22.160 --> 0:14:26.400 and so Congress has in the past past laws saying 0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:29.240 here are some tariffs that the president can impose, right, 0:14:29.280 --> 0:14:31.560 but like, ultimately it's the Congress's tariff power, and the 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.960 Congress doesn't say in any of those laws the president 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.440 can make any tariffs he wants. It says, you know, 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.760 he does an investigation these particular things, for these particular reasons, 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:42.520 you can make tariffs. But it's not an open ended 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.800 grant of power. And one thing that the court so 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:49.160 yesterday is that if it were an open ended grant 0:14:49.200 --> 0:14:51.280 of power, and one way to read AIPA is that's 0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:53.400 an open ended grant to make whatever twists you want. 0:14:53.440 --> 0:14:54.840 I don't think it's a good reading, but it's like 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:57.400 the Trump administration reading the court said, if you read 0:14:57.440 --> 0:14:59.680 it that way, then it would be unconstitutional for the 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:03.120 Congress to give all of its tariff power to the 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:08.840 president with no limitations whatsoever. And I think that's right. 0:15:09.520 --> 0:15:11.400 I have a personal interest in this. I don't know 0:15:11.400 --> 0:15:13.920 if I've talked about this on the podcast a column, 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:17.720 but like that idea that Congress can't just give its 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:20.840 power to the executive with no constraints is called the 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:26.600 non delegation doctrine and it is had a controversial career 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.920 in the Supreme Court. But one of the important cases 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:33.480 in the recent Supreme Court about the non delegation doctrine 0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:36.800 was argued by my wife. Wow, he's a criminal defense layer. 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:39.200 And so I was in the audience for that, and 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:41.840 so you know, I have like a little rooting interest 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:43.600 in the non delegation doctrine. 0:15:43.720 --> 0:15:47.120 I get it, even though to oversimplify and dumb it down. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:49.680 It seems like that is what has happened here, and 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.200 it does just seem like Congress is too upset about it. 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:55.840 So the podded history of the non delegation doctrine is 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:59.040 that it's never had any effect whatsoever. Like there is 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.280 lip service paid to the idea that Congress can't delegate 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.920 all of its legislative powers to the president, but that 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.080 lip service has always paid in cases saying but this 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:12.280 delegation is fine, right, including my West case. But there 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:15.160 is like this notion that interest in it has been relived, 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:17.240 and like one day they're going to find a delegation 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:19.800 that is too broad and maybe it's ayepa. I don't know. 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:23.560 Yeah, I don't know. Again timestamp this is on Thursday. 0:16:23.560 --> 0:16:24.880 It'll be fun to see how this shakes out. I 0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:26.280 don't know. I would love to be a fly on 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.400 the wall and like some of these negotiations, because I 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:31.880 don't know, if you're Japan negotiating with the US right 0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:34.200 now or India, do you just wait and see. 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:37.880 I don't understand why this would really change it that much. 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:40.000 I just think that like the thing that you know 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.800 as like the Japan trade negotiator or whatever, is that 0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:46.960 Trump really wants to make deals, he really wants to 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:51.000 have wins, he really doesn't trust free trade. He's really 0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:53.400 willing to push the boundaries of the law as much 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.320 as possible. He's not really aware of what those boundaries are. 0:16:56.640 --> 0:16:59.920 To think like I'm going to tell him to stuff 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.960 because a court struck him down. Seems crazy, Like now 0:17:04.040 --> 0:17:07.280 more than ever, you make a deal, more than you're like, look, 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:11.480 this court was wrong. We understand. Here's our tariff concessions. 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:13.879 Like maybe you get a better deal now, and like 0:17:13.960 --> 0:17:15.440 you're rushing to make a deal. I don't know. I 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.480 don't understand the idea that like now you're like, oh, 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.240 it's fine, like no more tariffs, Like I'll just walk 0:17:21.280 --> 0:17:22.640 away from the negotiating table. 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:24.760 So it's crazy. I don't know. Maybe you don't walk away, 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:27.280 but maybe you say, why don't we break for lunch 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:28.800 for a little bit. Why don't we. 0:17:28.920 --> 0:17:30.880 I think that was the opportunity to make a bigod deal. 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:32.520 I don't know. I don't listen to me, I don't 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:36.000 I don't know anything, but like to me like calling 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.439 him up and being like, I'm in your camp, buddy, 0:17:38.600 --> 0:17:40.320 I want to make a deal. I know that you 0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:43.520 have the constitual parademphosies tariffs. Let's make a deal. To me, 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:45.280 listen to the opportunity. You don't break for. 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:46.280 Lunch that's true. 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:49.600 You cut the deal now, Yeah, no exaggerating because like 0:17:50.440 --> 0:17:53.919 if the deal involves like him imposing lower ABA tariffs 0:17:53.960 --> 0:17:56.560 on you, like those are illegal maybe maybe. So I 0:17:56.560 --> 0:17:58.280 don't know. It's harder to know what the deal is, 0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:00.040 but I don't know how it changes the poster. 0:17:59.880 --> 0:18:18.199 That most of our topics today are vaguely and in 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:22.720 some cases explicitly. Donald Trump related Fanny and Freddy for example, 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:24.000 back in the. 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.200 News another bit of you knowilateral. 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:30.560 Pol an explicit implicit guarantee. 0:18:31.200 --> 0:18:33.800 Yeah, Donald Trump, the verb is so hard. I want 0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:35.800 to say he tweeted, but in fact he posted on 0:18:35.840 --> 0:18:37.600 truth social which you can say he truthed. 0:18:37.840 --> 0:18:38.560 Yeah, the truth. 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.560 I am working on all caps taking these amazing companies public, 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:44.600 but I want to be clear the US government will 0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:48.080 keep its implicit all caps guarantees, and I will stay 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:50.320 strong in my position on overseeing them as president. So 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:53.639 Fanny and Freddie, the government sponsored enterprises had a long 0:18:54.160 --> 0:18:57.639 prehistory as being implicitly guaranteed by the US government. So 0:18:57.720 --> 0:19:02.040 like they explicitly said, Morgus, they have trillion dollars Morgue, 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:05.800 and they issued mortgage backed securities that are guaranteed by them, 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.880 and those securities. Always said, these securities are not guaranteed 0:19:09.880 --> 0:19:12.480 by the US government, And they said that because otherwise 0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:15.119 you'd be confused, because everyone thought they were guaranteed by 0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:17.560 the US government. That's what it's called an implicit guarantee. 0:19:17.920 --> 0:19:20.400 They say it's not guaranteed, but everyone thinks it's guaranteed. 0:19:20.760 --> 0:19:22.200 And then in two thousand and eight they went past 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:24.600 and they turned out to be guaranteed by the US 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:26.920 government effectively because the government like stepped in and took 0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:29.240 them over, bailed them out, and made sure that creditors 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:33.200 were made whole. And that was roughly sixteen years ago. 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.400 And ever since, people have said this can't continue forever. 0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.440 They have to return to private hands. And I always said, why, 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:43.600 it's fine, like no one. Yeah. But so now once again, 0:19:44.080 --> 0:19:47.199