1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,120 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,640 Speaker 1: today's best minds. We are off for the holidays, but 4 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 1: in advance, we made you a fantastic show. Today. Spencer 5 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: Ackerman of the newsletter Forever Wars looks back on two 6 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: years of Biden's foreign policy to show us the patterns 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: he's seeing. But first, the author of The Uninhabitable Earth, 8 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 1: New York Times climate correspondent David Wallace Wells, Welcome to you, 9 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: Fast Politics. David Wallace Wells, thanks so much for having me. 10 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,280 Speaker 1: Good to be here, very thrilled to have you. I 11 00:00:40,320 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: think first we should talk about COVID, and then we 12 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: should talk about let's do it. You have written a 13 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:51,800 Speaker 1: lot about COVID recently. There's a lot of interesting stuff. 14 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:53,400 Speaker 1: But the thing I want to talk to you about 15 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,440 Speaker 1: is learning loss. Anyone who has kids who lived through COVID, 16 00:00:57,480 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 1: and I have many have seen a learning loss and 17 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: what an issue that is. Where are weay with addressing 18 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,080 Speaker 1: that because it seems like there has not been a 19 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 1: ton done there. It depends how you want to think 20 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,679 Speaker 1: about a ton done. And I think it also is 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 1: important to contextualize some of the losses themselves, which is 22 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: to say, the data is really clear that American kids 23 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: suffered setbacks over the course of the pandemic, and that's worrying. 24 00:01:23,880 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: Judging by standardized testing, American students were not doing especially 25 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: well to begin with. It was especially hard for low 26 00:01:31,560 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: income kids places in you know, under under resourced areas 27 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: to thrive according to these standards, and those gaps got 28 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: much larger over the course the pandemic. So there is 29 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: damage there that we should want to address in a 30 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: variety of ways. It's tricky because we don't know exactly 31 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 1: what to do to get people to learn better. I mean, 32 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 1: if we knew that, we'd probably be implementing those tools, 33 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: you know, long before the pandemic. And there is some 34 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,560 Speaker 1: evidence at the state level, at certain in certain states 35 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: that already something like half or so of the learning 36 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: loss that was observed over the course of the first 37 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:10,680 Speaker 1: two years of the pandemic has been recovered basically simply 38 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 1: by kids being back in school and having face to 39 00:02:13,919 --> 00:02:16,959 Speaker 1: face um learning. But I also, you know, my own 40 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: view is a little bit unorthodox here, which is that 41 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: I think that we've made a little too much of 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: these losses, which is to say, when you go into 43 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: the gold standard data, the best testing data that we have, 44 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,079 Speaker 1: we're talking about nationally average test scores on a scale 45 00:02:34,080 --> 00:02:37,960 Speaker 1: of five hundreds, falling from like to twenty to seventeen 46 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 1: to sixteen. Like I said, those are real losses. You know, 47 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: they are setbacks. They mean that many kids are behind 48 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,920 Speaker 1: where they would be otherwise. But it's not like, you know, 49 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:50,640 Speaker 1: eighth graders are now reading like second graders. It's not 50 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: like kids are graduating high school unable to do basic math. 51 00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: It means that some fraction of kids are a little 52 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: bit behind where they would have been without the pandemic. 53 00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: On that point, I would just say, you know, the 54 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:03,880 Speaker 1: whole country is by where we should be a lot 55 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,679 Speaker 1: of points because of the pandemic. And when you look internationally, 56 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: you see that even places that didn't do nearly didn't 57 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: have nearly as many interruptions to schooling the UK, like 58 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 1: Denmark have had roughly comparable learning losses to the ones 59 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: that we've had in the US. So while there's a 60 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: lot of people want to point the finger at school closures, 61 00:03:20,200 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 1: and I personally think we should regret a lot of 62 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:24,800 Speaker 1: the school closures I also think that the ultimate impact 63 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: of that policy was relatively limited, and it's probably I 64 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 1: would say, and this is you know, this is speculation, 65 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: it's it's not exactly proven science. But I would say 66 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 1: that when we look at those setbacks and those learning losses, 67 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 1: what we're seeing is the effect of what it means 68 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: to live through a pandemic as much as we are 69 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: the effect of what it means to suspend schooling for 70 00:03:43,200 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 1: a period of months at a time. Yeah, I mean, 71 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:50,160 Speaker 1: I do think there's always this idea that there's somehow 72 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: people did the best psycho right during that period when 73 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: we didn't know a lot. Yeah, I mean, I think, 74 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: you know, especially early on, everyone was very worried about 75 00:03:59,760 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 1: kid is getting sick. We wanted to take a lot 76 00:04:02,200 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: of precautions. I think, you know, if you have been 77 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: looking closely at the data, then you you could have 78 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: seen that children were much lower risk than other age groups. 79 00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 1: But of course, because we didn't have vaccines, it was 80 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: also a lot harder to imagine that we could sort 81 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: of prevent the virus from spreading through kids to older, 82 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 1: more vulnerable people, and so there was a genuine public 83 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,480 Speaker 1: health imperative to try to limit spread in all directions 84 00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: and all ways, and that governed a lot of the 85 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:27,400 Speaker 1: policy in that first year. I think, looking back on 86 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: it now, we probably, if we had a chance to 87 00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:32,600 Speaker 1: restart all of that, would have done more to allow 88 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: those who are not themselves at all that much risk 89 00:04:35,240 --> 00:04:38,359 Speaker 1: from COVID infection to live slightly more normal lives, and 90 00:04:38,360 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: probably should have done more to target our protections to those, 91 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: especially the elderly, who are at much more risk. As 92 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,960 Speaker 1: you say, you know, it was a it was a messy, chaotic, 93 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 1: very anxious time, and I personally think it's it's somewhat 94 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: hard to judge, you know, most of our leaders for 95 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: the decisions they made, especially in those months in the 96 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: spring of by the fall of I think most schools 97 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 1: should have been and we should have spent those six 98 00:05:01,240 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: months or so preparing to make sure that by September 99 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: all kids were in school, and the fact that in 100 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 1: a lot of places they weren't is bad. On the 101 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,400 Speaker 1: other hand, most schools were open to some degree at 102 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: some point over the course of that year. So it's 103 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:15,599 Speaker 1: all messy, it's all tricky. I think in general, the 104 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,120 Speaker 1: harder we try to narrativise the pandemic, the more complicated 105 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,839 Speaker 1: those stories become. Pandemic learning loss is like one of 106 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: the things that certainly happened over the last couple of years. 107 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: But exactly why and exactly how to fix it, I 108 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,040 Speaker 1: think is not so easy to say. Yeah, I mean, 109 00:05:29,120 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: I'm reminded of when I came back from from seepack. 110 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 1: One of my kids school nurses, because I had gotten 111 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: that letter that said I have been exposed, was like, 112 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: please just keep your kids home. She's like, we don't 113 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: know anything. She's like, just please. Yeah, she was just 114 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 1: like is a favorite of make which I thought, you know, 115 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 1: people were really scared. Well, I think that it continues 116 00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,400 Speaker 1: to this day. I mean, the truth is that many 117 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: kids have died. I don't want to downplay that. The 118 00:05:53,600 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: ultimate cost of this pandemic to children. You know, the 119 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: numbers around over a thousand, which is a horrible tragedy, 120 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: and thousands of horrible tragedies, and the grand scheme of things, 121 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,640 Speaker 1: kids are much safer than older people. That the age 122 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 1: key was really quite dramatic, such that you know, unvaccinated 123 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: people are in their eighties or like thousands of times 124 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 1: more risk than little kids. And yet of course we 125 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: have all of these intuitive, reflective, protective gestures that you know, 126 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 1: because we believe kids are vulnerable in general, we have 127 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 1: a hard time seeing them as safe and resilient. And 128 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,599 Speaker 1: you know, those were reasonable feelings to have to It 129 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 1: was just, you know, everybody felt really unsure. Nobody had 130 00:06:26,440 --> 00:06:28,479 Speaker 1: lived through a pandemic like this before, and you know, 131 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: in those cases it's a perfectly reasonable thing to say 132 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: the precautionary principle should be the governing principle. Here. Have 133 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:37,279 Speaker 1: we lived through a pandemic now? You mean we on 134 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 1: the other side of it? Yeah? Or are we in 135 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: this sort of messy endemic period. Well, you know, we 136 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:45,720 Speaker 1: still have over two hundred Americans dying a day these days, 137 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: and for about six or eight months it's been steadily 138 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 1: between three hundred and five hundred, and that's an annualized 139 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:54,960 Speaker 1: total of over a hundred thousand Americans dying a year, 140 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: which would make COVID the third leading cause of death. 141 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 1: It will be the third leading cause of death in 142 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: any two and it presumably will be the third leading 143 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: cause of death in too. So you know, I think 144 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 1: a lot of that, a lot of the question of 145 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 1: where we are is a bit of a semantic one. 146 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,960 Speaker 1: I mean, COVID will be for the foreseeable future a 147 00:07:12,040 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: meaningful additional mortality burden on the country. All of the vaccination, 148 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: of the boosters, all that, you know, all that, all 149 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: that stuff, all the pexlovid can only get us so far, 150 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: and it's not going to eliminate this from our disease landscape. 151 00:07:24,080 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: But you know, the COVID deaths are well below cancer 152 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 1: and heart disease, and we don't obsess about cancer and 153 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:32,160 Speaker 1: heart disease in the same way that we obsessed about 154 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: COVID even now. So there's probably some degree to which 155 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,720 Speaker 1: we're coming to terms with this new normal, on this 156 00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: new abnormal to quit a phrase, um and exactly how 157 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 1: we live through that says a lot more about what 158 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 1: are sort of priors and biases and values are than 159 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: it does about the state of the disease, which is 160 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 1: pretty clear. It's like the disease is spreading pretty rapidly. 161 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 1: We're not really doing anything at all to stop it spread. Um. 162 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: The cost of that in terms of lives is much 163 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: much lower than the same number of infections would have 164 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 1: been a year or two ago. That that that risk 165 00:08:04,320 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: is concentrated very heavily in the elderly um which means 166 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: that people who are under the age of sixty five 167 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: and are vaccinated are at extremely low risk, and yet 168 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 1: at the social level, at the national level, it's still 169 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: killing a lot of people. And what you make of 170 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: that and how you again, how you narrativise that is 171 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: sort of up to you. But the data doesn't say 172 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: that it's over. The data just says we're in a 173 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: new phase. So I want to talk to you about 174 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: this United Nations Climate Conference which went off without a whimper, 175 00:08:30,360 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 1: really and what happened there because Glasgow was such a 176 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: big deal and this one sort of fizzled, puttered along. Yeah, 177 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:40,920 Speaker 1: part of that is by design. So the way that 178 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: these conferences work, they happen every year, but each one 179 00:08:43,840 --> 00:08:45,480 Speaker 1: is meant to do a different kind of a thing. 180 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 1: In the Glasgow one was designed to be the five 181 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: year anniversary of the Paris Accords. They ended up pushing 182 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: it back a year, so it was six years after, 183 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 1: not five years. On the five year anniversary of the 184 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:56,640 Speaker 1: Paris Accords. Basically all the countries of the world, we're 185 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:58,600 Speaker 1: supposed to come back and for the first time since 186 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: Paris formally announced more ambitious pledges of decarbonization, which meant 187 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: that in the lead up to Glasgow, we just had 188 00:09:05,760 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: a whole number of promises being made by the biggest countries, 189 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:09,920 Speaker 1: the biggest emitters in the world, and they added up 190 00:09:09,920 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 1: to something quite significant, you know, now, something like I 191 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 1: think it's about of all on GDP and global emissions 192 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: at least are governed by these net zero pledges, which 193 00:09:18,240 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: is countries promising to get all the way to carbon 194 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: neutrality by sixty And those are paper pledges. They're empty 195 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,240 Speaker 1: at the moment, you know, they're in most cases they're empty, 196 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 1: but they're still it was still a quite significant rhetorical 197 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: step forward that happened in Glasgow, with all those countries 198 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:35,760 Speaker 1: making all those promises. This conference was never designed to 199 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: do that. It wasn't in the in the sort of 200 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: rhythm of the COPS, the Conference of the Parties which 201 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: goes by cup. In the rhythm of these cups, this 202 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: was not meant to be one in which countries announced 203 00:09:45,440 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 1: more ambitious pledges. It was meant to be what was 204 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:50,679 Speaker 1: called an implementation cup, which meant that the countries were 205 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 1: sort of trying to figure out what they needed from 206 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: one another to meet the promises that they had made 207 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:57,920 Speaker 1: in Glasgow, and that meant that there was basically no 208 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 1: news on the like a mission pledges or decarbonization front 209 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,960 Speaker 1: this time around. No no significant news, but there was 210 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 1: some movement that I think is actually quite remarkable on 211 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: some other issues relating to climate justice and what's called 212 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:16,719 Speaker 1: loss and damage, which is basically the idea that you know, 213 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 1: the rich countries in the world are responsible for almost 214 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: all the world's emissions today, they're especially responsible for historical 215 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: emissions which are still hanging in the atmosphere and heating 216 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: the planet, and yet they're not the ones who are 217 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 1: suffering most from the impacts of climate change. That is, 218 00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,319 Speaker 1: the poorest countries in the world who are who have 219 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,559 Speaker 1: done the least to create the damage. So to put 220 00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: a number on that, Pakistan which has this incredible months 221 00:10:36,400 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: soon flooding this year that left by some measures, about 222 00:10:39,200 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: the third of the country underwater, certainly a large fraction 223 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: of the country underwater, displaced over thirty million people, and 224 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 1: produced a huge wave of infectious disease because of all 225 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 1: the malaria and denga that was spreading because of mosquitoes 226 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 1: and the stagnant water. This is a country that suffered 227 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:57,160 Speaker 1: the most devastating climate impact this year two and it's 228 00:10:57,160 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: a country that has produced in its entire history only 229 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: as much carbon emissions as the US produces every single year. 230 00:11:02,840 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 1: And that kind of dynamic holds true across South Asia 231 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:09,080 Speaker 1: and in Southern Africa, to to some lesser degree, Southeast Asia. 232 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: It's really this perverted, inverted moral logic where the countries 233 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: that did this damage are not suffering all that much, 234 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,320 Speaker 1: in the countries who didn't are suffering most. And for 235 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 1: a decade or two, those vulnerable countries have been coming 236 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 1: to climate conferences and saying something needs to be done 237 00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 1: about this, like you guys need to help us recover. 238 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,680 Speaker 1: These are countries like the Maldives, right, yeah, Muhammad Nashi 239 00:11:30,800 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: who is the former president of the Maldives, I believe 240 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: he's now the prime minister. There was one of the 241 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: leading figures beginning about two decades ago and doing this. 242 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: Mia Motley, who is the Prime Minister of Barbados, is 243 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,719 Speaker 1: now one of the leading figures. But you know, there 244 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: was always on the margins of these conferences that it 245 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: was the small vulnerable countries who are saying we need 246 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:48,560 Speaker 1: some help, guys, and really over the last few years, 247 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: but especially over the last year and then kind of 248 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,920 Speaker 1: culminating at this conference, there's been a kind of significant 249 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: shift in the discourse where this is now pretty central 250 00:11:57,400 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 1: to the way that almost everybody is talking about the 251 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: challenge of climate change. How is it that we can 252 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:04,440 Speaker 1: help those countries were most in need? And there was 253 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,680 Speaker 1: a landmark agreement reached in this conference to build what's 254 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 1: called a loss and damage facility. The details aren't exactly 255 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: clear yet, they're going to be negotiated over the next 256 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 1: couple of years, but basically it was a commitment of 257 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: the world's wealthy countries to provide some way through an 258 00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: institution like the World Bank or the i m F, 259 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: to direct funds to climate vulnerable countries so that they 260 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: wouldn't be suffering as nakedly or as brutally the impacts 261 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: of climate change that the wealthy nuctries countries the world 262 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 1: actually produced so interesting, So did anything besides that come 263 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: out that was good? I mean, it strikes me as 264 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: a sort of outside of the road that there's more 265 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:45,840 Speaker 1: focus on on greenwashing and some of the sort of 266 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: the housekeeping that makes it look like people are doing 267 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 1: more for climate than they are. Do you think that's accurate? 268 00:12:52,040 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 1: And how anxious are you about that? Yeah? I think 269 00:12:54,760 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 1: in general, you know, on on one hand, it's a 270 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: sign of progress that countries and corporations are making promises 271 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: and feeling obligated to make promises. Relatedly, it's also a 272 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 1: sound of progress that many people are looking at those 273 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: promises and really really being strict about them and saying, actually, 274 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 1: you're not on track to meet these goals, and there's 275 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:16,520 Speaker 1: no plausible pathway to the decorganizations speed that year applying here, 276 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 1: you need to either really dramatically up your ambition and 277 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,959 Speaker 1: make serious investments, or be a little bit more honest 278 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: and transparent about where you're actually heading as opposed to 279 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: where you're where you want us to believe you're heading. 280 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: That's a shift that's happening in the culture as a whole, 281 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: I think as part and parcel of climate change becoming 282 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 1: more and more central to the way that people think 283 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,559 Speaker 1: about politics and policy and geopolitics over the last five 284 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: years or so. But there's been sort of significant movement 285 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:44,559 Speaker 1: within the u N Climate community to a scent of 286 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 1: guidelines that was published during the Charmel Shake, cop led 287 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 1: by Catherine McKenna, who is a former Environment Minister of Canada, 288 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 1: but with the support and endorsement of the Secretary General 289 00:13:53,800 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 1: Antonio Guterres, that basically outlined a series of standards for companies, 290 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 1: in particular saying like, if you don't meet these standards, 291 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,959 Speaker 1: you can't say that you're going to get to net zero. 292 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 1: And there's not yet an enforcement mechanism that would actually, 293 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: you know, hold them to that. But I think it's 294 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,520 Speaker 1: the first step to say, here are the basic sets 295 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: of standards we should be applying here. You know exactly 296 00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: what that where That leads in terms of whether corporations 297 00:14:17,480 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 1: will up their anti will increase their ambition, or we'll 298 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,320 Speaker 1: just back away from the rhetoric. I think we don't 299 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: really know. A few years ago, as a major major 300 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 1: it was celebrated as a major step forward when black Rock, 301 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:31,960 Speaker 1: which is this unbelievably large invest in investment firm, I 302 00:14:31,960 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: think it's like, I don't remember the numbers off the 303 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: top of my head, but it's something like it would 304 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: be one of the world's biggest economies. They promised that 305 00:14:38,800 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: they were going to be holding all of their portfolio 306 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: companies too much stricter climate standards and then like a 307 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,160 Speaker 1: year and a half later, they were basically like, actually, 308 00:14:45,200 --> 00:14:48,320 Speaker 1: forget it, We're not going to do that. So you 309 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,400 Speaker 1: know exactly what happens as a result of these new 310 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: holding these people's feet to the fires unclear. And you're 311 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: seeing in the US a lot of Republican attorneys general 312 00:14:55,920 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: suing to push back against climate policies so republican, it's disgusting. 313 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,560 Speaker 1: It's especially disgusting because we're the beginning of partisan shift here, 314 00:15:05,720 --> 00:15:08,760 Speaker 1: which is to say, especially because of the ira but 315 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,080 Speaker 1: also because of all the green energy investments that have 316 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 1: been made over the last decade. You know, there's just 317 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:16,600 Speaker 1: there's a lot of money being made in clean energy 318 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,960 Speaker 1: in red states right now, and I genuinely don't think 319 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 1: that five or ten years from now, you know, wind 320 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:23,760 Speaker 1: power and solar power are going to be coded in 321 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: the same blue, red left right way that they are now, 322 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: Which means you're kind of shooting yourself in the foot 323 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,480 Speaker 1: if you're a red state saying you're going to push 324 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 1: back against the ira A tax credits. It's like your 325 00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:34,360 Speaker 1: state's going to be in a much better position if 326 00:15:34,400 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: you take those actual credits and build out a new 327 00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 1: energy system, right right right, That makes a lot of sense. 328 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: I do think that partisanship will stay because Republicans have, 329 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: like we saw during the pandemic, been largely anti science. 330 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: You know, you had people who are actually dying and 331 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 1: they were like, no, they're not. You know, it's a 332 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: larger percentage of Republicans dying of COVID than Democrats. Still, 333 00:15:55,400 --> 00:16:00,000 Speaker 1: so there's probably this anti science way of thinking will continue, 334 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 1: you but certainly there'll be financial incentives hopefully. I look 335 00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: at it like, you know, we had these three bills 336 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: the past over the last year that touch on climate, 337 00:16:07,880 --> 00:16:09,560 Speaker 1: and the biggest was the i ra A, the Inflation 338 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 1: Reduction Act, and that got no Republican votes in part 339 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 1: because it was understood as a climate bill. But there 340 00:16:14,600 --> 00:16:16,320 Speaker 1: was also the Chips Act and there was also the 341 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: Infrastructure Bill, both of which were not pitched as climate 342 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 1: bills and yet had a lot of climate spending in them, 343 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: and those both got a fair number of Republican votes 344 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: because it was really you know, it's kind of like 345 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 1: pork barrel spending. It's like, you guys are gonna get 346 00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: your your battery factories, you guys are going to get 347 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: your money for your transmission lines. And it's hard to 348 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,400 Speaker 1: turn that down. If the temperature on the culture were 349 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 1: part of climate can be turned down a little bit, 350 00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: I think that there's a chance to get Republican support 351 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: for that kind of stuff going forward, even if I 352 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,800 Speaker 1: don't think we're gonna get a second I or anytime soon. Right. 353 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you, thank you. 354 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 1: This was super interesting and I hope you'll come back. 355 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: Of course, you had great to talk and let's talk 356 00:16:52,560 --> 00:17:02,920 Speaker 1: against Spencer. Ackerman writes the news letter Forever War Forever Wars, 357 00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 1: and is the author of Reign of Terror, Welcome Too Fast, 358 00:17:07,720 --> 00:17:11,240 Speaker 1: Politic Expense or Acraman. Thanks very much, Molly. First, we're 359 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: going to talk about the Biden administration. We are two 360 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: years into the Biden administration. Tell us about the good, 361 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: the bad, and the very weird two years in. I 362 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: think like we can draw a kind of large, if 363 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: preliminary judgment, which is like looking at the two years 364 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 1: worth of Biden handling of foreign policy, I think we've 365 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:37,640 Speaker 1: got like a clear story of what this administration will 366 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: ultimately be known for when obviously a whole lot of 367 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: unexpected stuff could happen in the next two years, or 368 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: you know, if they get re election the following four. 369 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,000 Speaker 1: But all of that said, I think this administration is 370 00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:55,439 Speaker 1: going to be remembered for both inheriting and then taking 371 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: ownership of what we'll look back on in the future 372 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: as two coal wars at the same time, Russian and China. 373 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 1: You see this a lot in the much criticized national 374 00:18:06,800 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 1: security strategy that they put out, which is getting the 375 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:13,840 Speaker 1: kind of like typical sort of blob reaction that you know, 376 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 1: this doesn't make any actual priorities between stuff. This doesn't 377 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: tell you what it is that the administration would actually 378 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: choose if sort of stacked against each other in terms 379 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,440 Speaker 1: of blood, treasure, attention, stuff like that. Nevertheless, you had 380 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: an historic decision by the Trump administration to say that, 381 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 1: in fact, the long term enemy of the United States 382 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: is China. Probably, you know, with the exception of the 383 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: Abraham Accords that took the Mid Eastern anti Iran coalition 384 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,840 Speaker 1: out of the shadows. No Trump decision was applauded on 385 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,960 Speaker 1: the foreign policy side more readily than than that one 386 00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 1: pivoting the United States towards a twenty one century and 387 00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,719 Speaker 1: they like to use the term great power competition with 388 00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: China um as well as the Biden administration upon taking office, 389 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,400 Speaker 1: seeing the Russians in you know, not the same weight 390 00:19:06,440 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: class as the Chinese, but the same I guess like 391 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:15,080 Speaker 1: mentality that these are enormous geopolitical actors, obviously China more 392 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: so than Russia, that the United States needs to array 393 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: itself against. They don't like to use the term cold 394 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: wars for I think pretty obvious reasons. But you know, 395 00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: if you look at for instance, US officials going to 396 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,800 Speaker 1: the Manama Conference in Bahrain in November. While you know, 397 00:19:35,920 --> 00:19:39,119 Speaker 1: those officials took really great pains to tell like the 398 00:19:39,160 --> 00:19:42,680 Speaker 1: Golfees and the Israelis that you know, we're not actually 399 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: doing cold wars. We don't want blocks, they were simultaneously saying, 400 00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,760 Speaker 1: do not hedge against US with Chinese, particularly communications or 401 00:19:50,760 --> 00:19:55,879 Speaker 1: military purchases. So the administration really is saying, regardless of 402 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: the presentation that great power competition doesn't have to be 403 00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 1: a cold war, that when they go talk to client 404 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: states or states that you know, maybe client states, the 405 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,919 Speaker 1: message is fundamentally you you should choose us and not 406 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: them for these varieties of reasons. I think that to 407 00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: an astonishing degree, given the two Cold Wars at the 408 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: same time, framework. Thus far, I think they're succeeding on 409 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:30,160 Speaker 1: their own terms. We're not seeing the enormous downstream negative 410 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: consequences not just on economies that factionalize around the world, 411 00:20:35,920 --> 00:20:41,160 Speaker 1: but the blood that Cold Wars mean outside of the 412 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 1: imperial center. You know, think of what the Cold War 413 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: meant in practice for Latin America, for Africa, for the Caribbean, 414 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: for Southeast Asia, as well as you know, for Europe, 415 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: and then domestically in American politics. But that's gonna, I 416 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: would argue, that's going to come that inevitably in a 417 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:03,719 Speaker 1: instruct like this, you are going to get more and 418 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: more dire choices of this sort that the American officials, 419 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 1: you know, Collin call Brett McGurk, you know, very respected, 420 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: you know, professionals on the Democratic side, with a whole lot, 421 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,159 Speaker 1: you know, in Brett's case in particular, a ton of 422 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 1: you know, bipartisan you know, foreign policy credentials. That's the 423 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 1: choice that ultimately the aligned world or would be aligned 424 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:32,160 Speaker 1: world faces, and the downstream consequences of this haven't manifested yet. 425 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:34,919 Speaker 1: And I think the danger of that is that looks 426 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,000 Speaker 1: to the blob, for lack of better term, like success 427 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,720 Speaker 1: the administration. The Biden administration, I think is also benefiting 428 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: from like it looks like what foreign policy professionals kind 429 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,840 Speaker 1: of think of when they think of a coherent and 430 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: cohesive foreign policy team. You know, the classic example is, 431 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:58,600 Speaker 1: you know, the one that exists um in the rosie 432 00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,520 Speaker 1: memories of the US policy establishment. Is like the way 433 00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 1: the National Security Council worked under you know, George Bush, 434 00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: the father, a very coherent, minimally factionalized team. And you know, 435 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:14,959 Speaker 1: you are not seeing what you saw with you know, like, 436 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 1: for instance, the Bush administration deeply factionalized and unable to 437 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:24,199 Speaker 1: get the outcomes it wanted on the world. You're not 438 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,920 Speaker 1: able to you know, it doesn't look like the Obama 439 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 1: team deeply deeply factionalized, where a tremendous amount of the 440 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 1: Security States simply did not trust and sought to undermine Obama. 441 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 1: And also the team typically didn't you know, get certainly 442 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 1: in the first term what it thought it would achieve, 443 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:44,800 Speaker 1: and usually simply acquiesced to the Security States priorities. And 444 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,800 Speaker 1: then you're also not getting what you got under Trump, 445 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: which is tremendous factionalization. Yet again, and with the exception 446 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:53,960 Speaker 1: of like arraying for the Cold War, and for the 447 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 1: Abraham Accords, not really something that you would say achieved 448 00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 1: its objectives either. The incoherence was the proof of the factionalization, 449 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,959 Speaker 1: whether that had to do with Syria, whether that had 450 00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: to do with Afghanistan and so on and so forth. 451 00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: So the Biden team is what I guess I'm trying 452 00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 1: to say, is like for the first two years, certainly 453 00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 1: you are just seeing a lot more of the you know, 454 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: major players growing in the same direction. And accordingly that 455 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,720 Speaker 1: looks although that's an input like success in an output, 456 00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 1: and I think all of this is going to turn 457 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: out to be sort of dangerously illusory. Okay, you had 458 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: many thoughts there, we have, so we're gonna slow down 459 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,479 Speaker 1: and break this all down. The central tenant of what 460 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,440 Speaker 1: you're talking about is that the Biden administration, I would 461 00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: say that they are more aligned than previous administrations, even 462 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,240 Speaker 1: I think with the Trump administration it's hard. I mean, 463 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 1: I don't think they're a good example of anything, because 464 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: I mean, basically they did a little foreign policy that 465 00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:02,479 Speaker 1: Jared liked, right, Trump loves autograds. But I mean there 466 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 1: wasn't like a unifying foreign policy there. But with the 467 00:24:05,840 --> 00:24:09,200 Speaker 1: Biden administration. You sort of think that the biggest danger 468 00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: of the Biden administration is that their foreign policy is 469 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: too unified. I think it's more that there is a 470 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:19,359 Speaker 1: tremendous amount of consensus around the idea that what the 471 00:24:19,440 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: United States needs to do in the twenty one century 472 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,160 Speaker 1: is to the term they like to use is great 473 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: power competition. I think in real terms that means too 474 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,359 Speaker 1: cold wars at once. They won't be the same sorts 475 00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:33,840 Speaker 1: of cold wars that you know, the United States wage 476 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,719 Speaker 1: against the Soviet Union. But when you see senior officials 477 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:43,640 Speaker 1: saying to long time US allies, don't hedge against us, 478 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:48,480 Speaker 1: meaning don't start buying a lot of Chinese stuff, particularly 479 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,080 Speaker 1: on the communications and security side. Stay with what we 480 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:56,840 Speaker 1: already have deep in our alliance. We unlike China. And 481 00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: this was another argument that Brett McGurk and Collin call 482 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 1: in Bahrain in November. Have your regional interests against the 483 00:25:05,600 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 1: Iranians in mind, the Chinese will not, and the Russians 484 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,199 Speaker 1: are now for you know, drones in Ukraine dependent on 485 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,120 Speaker 1: the Iranians. So you're not going to get those sorts 486 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:22,120 Speaker 1: of support for your priorities. And so the thing is 487 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 1: is that if that continues to succeed, and again lots 488 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,959 Speaker 1: of consensus for it, then we get a kind of 489 00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:34,119 Speaker 1: tripartite division of the world at a time in which 490 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 1: to be a little bit you know, dramatic about it. 491 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: You know, the viability of human life is really running 492 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:45,520 Speaker 1: out unless we unite, Yeah, which is a climate stuff. Yes, 493 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 1: And like there is simply no way not withstand. We're 494 00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:53,920 Speaker 1: recording this right after this like massive fusion breakthrough that 495 00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 1: the Department of Energy announced yesterday. I when I was 496 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 1: at Wired, had to write a whole lot about like 497 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,880 Speaker 1: enter G generation through lasers, but I'm still not qualified 498 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,640 Speaker 1: to be able to talk about the implications of what 499 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 1: like a major resource transition of the century. But you know, 500 00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,520 Speaker 1: putting all of that aside, there is simply no way 501 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: that humanity will come out of the twenty one century 502 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 1: with anything like the sustainability necessary for continued human civilization 503 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: unless there is a kind of posture, primarily of cooperation 504 00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:35,679 Speaker 1: with these feuding great powers, and we are driving further 505 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: away from it. And that, I think is is what 506 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: I mean when I say that, That's what I mean 507 00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:43,199 Speaker 1: when I say the danger of this foreign policy and 508 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: the consensus that it represents is that while it is 509 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 1: succeeding on its own terms at the moment, from the 510 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: big picture perspective, that moves us in a direction that 511 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:58,760 Speaker 1: like our grandchildren will curse us for moving in and 512 00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,800 Speaker 1: then on, you know more are quotinion ways in which 513 00:27:02,080 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 1: I shouldn't say Quotinian, but like ways in which you know, 514 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:09,359 Speaker 1: the disastrous effects of which will manifest earlier. You know, 515 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,679 Speaker 1: Biden I think has done um a pretty good and 516 00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 1: responsible job of limiting the American commitment in Ukraine. But 517 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 1: once you commit to arming, you know, the Ukrainians to defeat, 518 00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:30,080 Speaker 1: you know, an aggressor's invasion that has itself all built 519 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 1: in escutory pressures, and like you can just imagine a 520 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 1: successor administration where this administration under greater pressure from a 521 00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,560 Speaker 1: Republican Congress changing their Yeah, just just being like, you know, 522 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:46,200 Speaker 1: we've been adjusting the range of the high Mars artillery launcher, 523 00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:49,560 Speaker 1: which can basically like hit nearly if you were fire 524 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,639 Speaker 1: it from you know, New York where we are, it 525 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 1: would basically like hit somewhere just shy of Baltimore, right, 526 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: Like we're not like the the administration is mono find 527 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:03,240 Speaker 1: like the range on the high Mars, so that like 528 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:06,840 Speaker 1: the Ukrainians don't hit inside of Russia, but they could, 529 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:09,760 Speaker 1: but you know, perhaps not forever. You know, right now 530 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,199 Speaker 1: there is an active discussion. You know, we're recording this, 531 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,119 Speaker 1: you know, right as the Pentagon is still saying like 532 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 1: we've made no decision yet, but to provide patriot batteries 533 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 1: for you know, greater air defense. All of these escortatory 534 00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:23,720 Speaker 1: pressures are built in the longer the war goes on, 535 00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:27,320 Speaker 1: and that will require on the one hand, you know, 536 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,960 Speaker 1: very careful management, but also an administration and a political 537 00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 1: climate that's interested in that kind of careful management. It's 538 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:38,160 Speaker 1: interested in limiting the commitment, like limiting the range of 539 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 1: possibilities within already a pitiless war. Okay, so stop for 540 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,680 Speaker 1: a minute. I want to ask you the Cold War 541 00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: is Russia and China. There are two Cold Wars, right, 542 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,240 Speaker 1: One is Russia, one is China. These two foreign powers 543 00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,840 Speaker 1: are not the same. Certainly not China. That's a forever war, right, 544 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: I mean, Russia is like on the verge of being 545 00:28:58,720 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 1: a hot war. Would you even try to like make 546 00:29:03,120 --> 00:29:07,200 Speaker 1: some kind of Dayton was China? I think you know 547 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,400 Speaker 1: Dayton with China and also we should mention like you know, 548 00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 1: as part of the Biden administration waging this you know 549 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:18,240 Speaker 1: cold war against China, it's launched like a massive bet 550 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,680 Speaker 1: to decouple its economy from the Chinese, which is that's 551 00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:26,479 Speaker 1: one way in which the China US competition just doesn't 552 00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 1: resemble the US Soviet competition, Like the trade ties are intense, 553 00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: like the manufacturing relationship is like, there's just nothing like 554 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:37,160 Speaker 1: that with the US and the Soviet Union in the 555 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:41,720 Speaker 1: twentieth century. But the Chinese say quite often like this 556 00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 1: is an unfortunate posture of the United States, and we 557 00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,680 Speaker 1: would just you know, discuss this more with them, And 558 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,239 Speaker 1: that I think probably has to be the way in 559 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 1: which both this administration and future administrations adjust to the 560 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,880 Speaker 1: rise of China. That management of all of its different 561 00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:03,360 Speaker 1: suite of issues has to be the subject of constant diplomacy, 562 00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:08,360 Speaker 1: because you know, history tells us as the economic might 563 00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: of China increases, so well the foreign ambitions of China 564 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,720 Speaker 1: so well, its resource dependence. So will also the ways 565 00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 1: in which, much like the United States before it, the 566 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: terms of like infrastructure, doing what the Chinese called, you know, 567 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,000 Speaker 1: the Belton Road Initiative become debt traps become the ways 568 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:28,520 Speaker 1: in which satellites are formed. All of this has to 569 00:30:28,560 --> 00:30:32,480 Speaker 1: be negotiated between Beijing and Washington, between you know, larger 570 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:37,880 Speaker 1: macro political structures, international structures ultimately deal with one another, 571 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: not because this is an easy thing to bridge, but 572 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 1: because the needs of everyone are so massive and so 573 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:51,120 Speaker 1: dependent so urgently on this happening. So you know, it's 574 00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:54,480 Speaker 1: simply has to be kind of particularly if the United 575 00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:58,160 Speaker 1: States is going to sort of stay with a construct 576 00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:01,920 Speaker 1: of the Chinese being a principal adversary and then the 577 00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,320 Speaker 1: Russians being kind of the next guy down, that that 578 00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: is the geopolitical relationship that matters the most and requires 579 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,080 Speaker 1: the most attention. One thing I would say a consequence 580 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: of all of this, I've said, this has gone pretty 581 00:31:15,720 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 1: well for Biden so far. One enormous consequence that right 582 00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,720 Speaker 1: now you could cut either way, but I don't know 583 00:31:23,000 --> 00:31:24,920 Speaker 1: in the future if it will stay that way, is 584 00:31:25,120 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 1: you know, last February four the Chinese and the Russians 585 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 1: agreed to what they called and no limit friendship. Now 586 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,920 Speaker 1: that's been very complicated for the Chinese by Russian like 587 00:31:36,400 --> 00:31:38,760 Speaker 1: seeing that as a green light to invade Ukraine. But 588 00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 1: on the other hand, you know, while a lot of 589 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 1: people focus on how you know, Russia can't really help China, 590 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,520 Speaker 1: China can really help Russia. If I'm Russia and I 591 00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:54,720 Speaker 1: have an economy smaller than Italy, what my best possibility 592 00:31:54,800 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: here is to become an adjunct of Chinese power basically 593 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 1: the lead. Basically this analogy doesn't work for a lot 594 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 1: of ways, but just politically I think it it'll capture 595 00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:08,600 Speaker 1: it somewhat be Britain to China's United States. I don't 596 00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,840 Speaker 1: think China has much appetite for that. From a resource perspective, 597 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,960 Speaker 1: it surely does. China is already becoming a massive energy 598 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,720 Speaker 1: customer of the Russians, and that will likely continue that. 599 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:21,880 Speaker 1: It's also what Hijin Peng's recent visit to Saudi Arabia's 600 00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,160 Speaker 1: winding up that the Chinese want what the United States 601 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: didn't really see a need for until nineteen seventy three, 602 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,800 Speaker 1: which is a diversified energy supply. And that's a sense 603 00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 1: in which the Chinese and Russian relationship won't be equal, 604 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,960 Speaker 1: but is something that really does kind of makes sense 605 00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 1: on its own terms, and really makes sense in the 606 00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:47,840 Speaker 1: context of the United States declaring, we see both of 607 00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: these major powers, one obviously bigger than the other, as 608 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,800 Speaker 1: our principal adversaries. That drives China and Russia together in 609 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: precisely the way that I think of the meme. You know, 610 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,560 Speaker 1: the worst person you know made a great point, something 611 00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:04,000 Speaker 1: like Henry Kissinger made a point of saying like, just 612 00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 1: as a matter of basics, we cannot have China and 613 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 1: the Soviet Union aligned with one another. We have to 614 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: break that, and right now that's broken against the United States. 615 00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:18,680 Speaker 1: Spencer so interesting. Well, thank you, Molly, I appreciate you 616 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:23,040 Speaker 1: letting me go on my little spiel. That's it for 617 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 1: this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, 618 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:29,840 Speaker 1: and Friday to your the best minds and politics makes 619 00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard, 620 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,440 Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going. 621 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: And again, thanks for listening.