1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg I 5 00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,480 Speaker 1: want to bring in our Chief Content Officer, Marty Schenka, 6 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's very on, one of our finest who knows d 7 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: C better than most. Great to have you with us, Marty, 8 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 1: talk to us about how significant this is, walk us 9 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: through the seven counts that Roger Stone is facing and 10 00:00:52,080 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: what we need to know. Well, you know, it's interesting. 11 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:57,920 Speaker 1: One thing you didn't mention in terms of the overall day, Tom, 12 00:00:58,040 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: is the legislative investtigations that have begun of the Trump administration. 13 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 1: Elijah Cummings has launched an investigation and security clearances that 14 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:12,160 Speaker 1: were granted. That's yet another overlay of the things that 15 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: are confronting this president um that we can't ignore. So 16 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: in terms of the indictment, as many have observed, it's 17 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,840 Speaker 1: not the crime, it's the cover up, And in this 18 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,520 Speaker 1: indictment it's talking mostly about how Roger Stone was not 19 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:34,200 Speaker 1: forthright with investigators and tried to hide his communications with 20 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: Wiki leaks. Essentially, Mark, Mark, Marty, you have always corrected 21 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: my fracture journalistic English. So I'm gonna go after our 22 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:48,440 Speaker 1: lead story. A self described political showman and dirty trickster. 23 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: How nixon Ian Marty Shacker defined a political showman and 24 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: dirty trickster. Yeah, well, you know Roger Stone, you know 25 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 1: we you described him leading into the segment as a 26 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: Republican strategist. Yeah, but he was really on the fringes 27 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,720 Speaker 1: of the Republican Party. He would, uh, you know, through 28 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: his website and conspiracy theories, try to uh upset the 29 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,839 Speaker 1: conventional wisdom about you know, and stretch the facts. Um. 30 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 1: So he he was. He's a very flamboyant fellow and 31 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:25,239 Speaker 1: um and for months has been saying he expected to 32 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: be invited by Mueller. And then it happened this morning. Okay, 33 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: but the linkol is here and and folks trust behind 34 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 1: the amateur Mr Shankers the pro We moved from Mr 35 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:37,800 Speaker 1: Stone to Mr Gates, Rick Gates, and then we moved 36 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,560 Speaker 1: to Mr Manafort. I believe is back at court this morning. 37 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 1: I'm in Switzerland. What do I know? Would you explain 38 00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: to our audience, Marty Schenker, how you get from Stone 39 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: to Gates to Maniford to Manafort to Stone, etcetera. What 40 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,839 Speaker 1: is that ven diagram? Well, let's not forget Paul Maniford 41 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: was running the Trump campaign in the middle of two 42 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: thousand and sixteen. Rick Gates was his assistant. Uh. Roger 43 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,839 Speaker 1: Stone and Paul Manaford had a history. They actually had 44 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: a consulting firm together in Washington some years ago. So 45 00:03:08,600 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: there is a personal and actual business connection between Maniford 46 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: and Roger Stone. Um. And in the indictment, which does 47 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: not name anyone besides Roger Stone, they talk about communications 48 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: with high ranking officials of the Trump campaign who I 49 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,440 Speaker 1: could only assume as Paul Manaford. Well, I mean yeah, 50 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: I just did a word search, Marty Schenker, because of 51 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,840 Speaker 1: the vast technology John Farrell allows me to have in 52 00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: their twenty nine uses of the word Trump within the indictment. 53 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: I mean again, folks, this is a lengthy indictment. I'm 54 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: looking at twenty four pages, uh, Marty Schenker, twenty nine words, 55 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: but they're about the Trump organization. To find Roger Stone 56 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 1: is the Trump organization relationship versus any relationship or the government. 57 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: The government really sationship, isn't there right? That is correct. 58 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: Roger Stone resigned from any formal world with the campaign 59 00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: in two thousand and fifteen abruptly, as our story says, 60 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 1: but as the indictment spells out, he kept an informal 61 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: relationship with high ranking officials of the campaign throughout the campaign. 62 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: And one part of that indictment that's interesting to me 63 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 1: is that a senior member of the Trump campaign who 64 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:30,119 Speaker 1: was not identified, instructed roger Stone to go back to 65 00:04:30,200 --> 00:04:34,719 Speaker 1: his source, which we assume as Wiki Leaks, to find 66 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: out if more damaging information was coming on Clinton. What 67 00:04:39,279 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 1: does the organization one? Are we guessing? Yeah, that's Wiki Leaks. 68 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: I mean it's described in the indictment as being run 69 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 1: by an individual who are residing in the Ecuadorian embassy 70 00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:56,599 Speaker 1: in London. I can't imagine it's anybody else but Julius Asange. Yes, 71 00:04:56,600 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: it mentiones here under um John this is pace Evan 72 00:05:00,760 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: section fifteen, item E talking about quote outside the Ecuadorian 73 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,240 Speaker 1: embassy and Monty. Is this a sign that this investigation 74 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: is closer to an endgame or a sign that has 75 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 1: just got it started? You know? That there's been a 76 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:18,320 Speaker 1: lot of narrative lately that he is winding up. I 77 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: don't know that that is true. What is clear is 78 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 1: that Bob Mueller's strategy, and it's a classic one when 79 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 1: you're talking about organized crime. You start from the outside 80 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: and you move your way in. And that is exactly 81 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: what Robert Mueller is doing. He's moving closer and closer 82 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 1: to the inner circle. Whether that Trump's family or Trump 83 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: himself remains to be seen. Well, Mary, I don't mean 84 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 1: to catch you on where is if you're not briefed 85 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 1: on this, but how close is Mr Stone to the 86 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 1: Proopher family, to Mr and Mrs Kushner to the Trump sons. 87 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,520 Speaker 1: Is there a close Florida let's let's hang out together 88 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 1: relationship or was it a what I would perceive from 89 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: Mr Manaford, a more business reach. I Tom, I, I 90 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: can't speak to that directly, but I do think that 91 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: you know, Roger Stone was in the orbit of the 92 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: Trump campaign very early, and so to the extent that 93 00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,920 Speaker 1: the family was deeply involved in the campaign, it's hard 94 00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,280 Speaker 1: to imagine that there there there wasn't a personal relationship 95 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: as well. Marty, this is a final question for you Washington, 96 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 1: d C. Of course, is going to have a very 97 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: very different story to get into today compared to the 98 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: obsession of the government shutdown of the last few weeks. 99 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: Do you just assume that the likelihood of reopening the 100 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: government anytime soon just got kicked down the road a 101 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 1: little bit. I don't know that this has a direct impact, 102 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:46,800 Speaker 1: but you know, independently of this, it was my feeling that, uh, 103 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:50,160 Speaker 1: while we got a glimmer of hope yesterday, I think 104 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: we're still in for at least weeks of shutdown. That's 105 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,240 Speaker 1: a that's a key question, I mean, John, I think 106 00:06:56,279 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: it's a brilliant question. Very quickly, Marty, can we link 107 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 1: the show down to legal actions against Mr Stone? I 108 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,719 Speaker 1: don't think we can do that. No, you can't know 109 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: you can't, but you can make it the observation, as 110 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: you did earlier, that this is just another distraction that 111 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 1: is keeping us from moving forward. Have an eventful day, 112 00:07:15,600 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 1: Martin Shrunker with us out of all of our content. 113 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,880 Speaker 1: He'll be spending of the majority of his day no 114 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: coordinating a multi article response to dive deeper into this indictment. 115 00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: With the Economy Minister of Russia. Here he is John Farrow. 116 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 1: Thank you very much. As we wrap up our week 117 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,800 Speaker 1: in Demo, Switzerland to the World Economic Forum, I'm pleased 118 00:07:48,800 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: to say that I am joined by the Russian Economy 119 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 1: Minister Maxim, Minister great to catch out with you. Initially 120 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 1: we didn't think he'd becoming because the committee here at 121 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: Davos were banning three from Russian businessman. And here you are. 122 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 1: You are, i believe, the leader of the delegation here 123 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: for Russia. Have you been received through the way? Has 124 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: it pay? Well? Everything was perfect, a lot of blitoral 125 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: meetings with other countries, with companies, so everything's good. The 126 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: sanctions on Russia from the Europeans and the United States 127 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: are still there. What kind of impacted it's it's a 128 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: different story of these sanctions, uh, And you know the 129 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: moved from the U S. SAT and from the European State. 130 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: It's already different because you know, Europe is trying these 131 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 1: days to be more independent CAF its independent policy, so 132 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: it's already different stories. Well do you see that planning 133 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,319 Speaker 1: gat in terms of removal of sanctions. Do you think 134 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 1: the Europeans will move them back? Well, we're not talking 135 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:39,920 Speaker 1: about that, we're talking about improving our relations improving our trade. 136 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: If you look at the past couple of years, the 137 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:44,720 Speaker 1: wenume of trade between Russian and Europe plus foot so 138 00:08:44,760 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: it's a positive dynamics. It's also investments. It's also you know, 139 00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: comparation technological on technological agenda, so it's moving on. So 140 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: you're clearly during a clear distinction between the approach of 141 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,400 Speaker 1: the Europeans and the United States. Are you're more hopeful 142 00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 1: about the relationship with Europe than the out of States? Well, 143 00:09:02,040 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 1: what we see is that Europe is becoming much more pragmatic. 144 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 1: Of course, you know, two main factors are behind that, 145 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: the Brexit on one side and the actions from the 146 00:09:10,880 --> 00:09:14,440 Speaker 1: U S side, for example, the terriers that they implemented 147 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: on the Europe in terms of steel and aluminium. So 148 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 1: all those steps, you know, forces the Europe to be 149 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 1: more pragmatic and more oriented on its own goals. So 150 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: the objects might look better. What does it mean for 151 00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:25,920 Speaker 1: the substance? What's your base case for what's going to 152 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: happen the relationship as well? Up in Russia, what what 153 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 1: we're doing is actually, like I've said, trade and always growing. 154 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,080 Speaker 1: We have you know a number of big investment projects 155 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 1: in Europe, which we're doing with European partners. It's the 156 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: non stream we're building building a couple of nuclear plants. 157 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 1: It's in Finland, it's in Hungary. We're doing enjoint project 158 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 1: with mainly French companies and other companies. In Russian North 159 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,680 Speaker 1: it's the article energy. So you know, corporation is growing 160 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,040 Speaker 1: step by step. Some people from the out side looking 161 00:09:54,040 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 1: at might say that the Russian economy, the trend of 162 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: where things are heading isn't great at the moment. What 163 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 1: would you sign back to that. What's your read on 164 00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 1: the economy at the moment. Well, our estimate of the 165 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: gross for twenty eighteen it's two percent grows. And what 166 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,199 Speaker 1: we have created in the past several years is that 167 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: we have sustainable and stable growth going forward on per 168 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 1: capita basis. It's the same place as the world is growing. 169 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:17,960 Speaker 1: So it's more than two percent because we have a 170 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 1: negative demography tendency in Russia and we actually prefer to 171 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 1: have a stable then the longer term dynamic rather than 172 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: to have plus seven minus six volatility. Do you have 173 00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 1: accommodative monitory policy at the moment? Well, the Mine three 174 00:10:31,000 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: policy is purely aimed at the delivering stable and facion dynamics. 175 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: We have a target of four percent. There isn't data 176 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 1: of what twenty eighteen four point three, so we are 177 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: at at the target level. There's often downsid rusted rights 178 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 1: as well. You see them in Russia too. You've had 179 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 1: a couple of right hikes at the back end of 180 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: last year coming into this year as well. Is that helpful. Well, 181 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: we expect that this year gross in Russia will be weaker, 182 00:10:52,320 --> 00:10:54,800 Speaker 1: so we expect only one point three percent because there 183 00:10:55,080 --> 00:10:58,199 Speaker 1: of course external factors. The global growth is slow and substantially, 184 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,079 Speaker 1: but there are also some internal factors with for example, 185 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:05,000 Speaker 1: addressing long term issues. We have increased VT beginning with 186 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 1: Junary the first, so it's we'll be wing negatively on 187 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: the gross dynamics, especially in the first. One of the 188 00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: global factors is oil. Oil is stabilized. Russia has quite clearly. 189 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 1: Oil is not you know, a story anymore for Ussia 190 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,079 Speaker 1: because you know four years ago it was one hunded 191 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 1: fifteen dos per bottle oil. Brace that that is needed 192 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 1: for us. Well, minister, let me get to the question first. No, no, 193 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: it's forty five. So let me get to the question 194 00:11:25,920 --> 00:11:29,120 Speaker 1: first and talk about the relationship with opec Um. Clearly, 195 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: it's a relationship that has built up over the last year. 196 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 1: It's a relationship that you see working in the future 197 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: as well, something that we can solidify the come of years. 198 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 1: It's definitely a long term relations We always for long 199 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:43,080 Speaker 1: term relations with any partner that we have one different 200 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,200 Speaker 1: than generals. So I pick up pick is not, you know, 201 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,439 Speaker 1: something unique, so we will be doing long term relations 202 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: with it. So I want to talk about your relations 203 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: with another big oil producer, Venezuela. The United States no 204 00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: longer recognizing Madua as a leader of that country. Some 205 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: reports this morning suggesting that the Europeans are moving towards 206 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,800 Speaker 1: doing the same thing. Russia has said to the United 207 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: States not to intervene in the situation with Venezuela. What's 208 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:07,800 Speaker 1: the economic relationship with Venezuela at the moment? How much 209 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 1: money do they are you? So you actually ask the 210 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 1: question that should not be asked to the Ministry of Economy, 211 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 1: but more to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Of course, 212 00:12:15,360 --> 00:12:18,960 Speaker 1: there are some relations in terms of caperation between especially 213 00:12:19,040 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 1: the oil industry, between Russia and Venezuela. So that's only 214 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,319 Speaker 1: I'm asking the economy minister, what the economic relationship is 215 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: with Venezuela, well, in terms of what impact it will 216 00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: have on Russia's growth close to you, Yeah, and the 217 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: old price, what could happen now Venezuela, Well, they ultimately 218 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,160 Speaker 1: if dagastafled a lot of factors which are impacting the 219 00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,600 Speaker 1: you know, dynamics of the oil market. What we expect 220 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: is that all prices of course will not go up, 221 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:47,120 Speaker 1: but unlikely they will go dramatically lower than what we 222 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 1: see these these But but for us it's not that 223 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 1: important anymore because the oil price that is needed for 224 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: the Russian economies around forty five, profol And the relationship, 225 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,120 Speaker 1: the economic relationships and maybe you're not that important to 226 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 1: you either from what you've just relations is Europe of course, 227 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: or with China, with Japan, was India. That is a 228 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:08,480 Speaker 1: big list of contress ahead of Manezuela. The Russian economy 229 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: minister that Maxim Moreskin joining us in Dallas, Switzerland. Thank 230 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: you very much, guys. Thanks John Farrell, thank you so much, 231 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate that this morning speaking with the Economy Minister 232 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: of Russia. I'm not sure this was our interview of 233 00:13:34,080 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 1: the day four days ago. It is the Interview of 234 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: the Day for the United States of America, for Canada, 235 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: for North America, and for all of South America. Is 236 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: Venezuela unwined. Ricardo Housman is a definitive Latin American economist 237 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 1: of his Venezuela or. He's a former Venezuelan Minister of Planning, 238 00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: former head of the Presidential Office a co ordination and 239 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: planning and at short notice, the gentleman who founded the 240 00:13:59,040 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: phrase original sin with Barry I. Green joins us. What 241 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: was Mr Maduro's original sin? Well, he has many, but 242 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,559 Speaker 1: his latest one and the one that is most significant 243 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: for the present, is the fact that he stole the 244 00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 1: election in May of this year for a second term 245 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: that was supposed to start on January ten. Because no country, 246 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: no decent country, recognized that election. As of January ten, 247 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: he's no longer perceived as a legitimate president of Venezuela. 248 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 1: And according to the constitution, if there is no president, 249 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: the President of the National Assembly has to take over 250 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: on an interim basis to organize a transition back to 251 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: an electoral solution you were wired into. This is no 252 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 1: one I know. Let me get the score right now, 253 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,200 Speaker 1: Mr Maduro has the support of the generals, the senior 254 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 1: general's and the gentleman taking over has the support of 255 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: America Canada and does he have the support of the 256 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:06,359 Speaker 1: mill military. So the president who's taking over has the legitimacy, 257 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: the institutional legitimacy of having been elected by a national 258 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:16,280 Speaker 1: Assembly that was popularly elected, has original legitimacy. So first, 259 00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,800 Speaker 1: he has that support. He has the institutional support of 260 00:15:18,840 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: the only elected power in the country right now. Number two, 261 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: he has massive popular support. You've seen these enormous demonstrations 262 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,560 Speaker 1: on January the military away from the general. One. Second, 263 00:15:30,600 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 1: he has massive international support. I just heard a few 264 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: minutes ago that the EU decided to recognize Guido as 265 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 1: the president of the country. That follows on Canada, the 266 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: U S, Costa Rica, Panama, Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Brazil, 267 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: even Albania has come out in support of Guido. So 268 00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: so he has massive international support. The only support that 269 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,400 Speaker 1: he's lacking at the present is military support. And the 270 00:16:00,480 --> 00:16:03,960 Speaker 1: military are several hundred thousand people. They live in Venezuela. 271 00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: They on average think like Venezuelans. So this is the 272 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,120 Speaker 1: attempt of Maduro and his top clique to maintain over 273 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 1: power because this they are essentially a criminal. Professor, let 274 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: me bring in my collegue professor reports. I'm saying from 275 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: Europe at the moment is that Spain will recognize Guado 276 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: if Maduro does not called a vote. I assume you 277 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: think that he's not going to call about any time soon? 278 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: Could I be right? Well? I wouldn't like to see 279 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:32,520 Speaker 1: a vote that is called is called with Maduro in power. 280 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: In Maluro already organized elections while he was in power, 281 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: and we know what they look like. The last election, 282 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:46,120 Speaker 1: he had the main political parties outlawed. He had the 283 00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: main candidates either in jail or in exile. So it 284 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: if it's an election called by Maluro, it won't be 285 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 1: a free and fair election. That's why we need President 286 00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: Guido on a transitional basis to be the one who 287 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:05,320 Speaker 1: is in power while elections are being organized. Military support, 288 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: as Tom points, sound, is what president Maduro has. Is 289 00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: that sufficient to keep power? I don't think so. I 290 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 1: don't think that the military can defend a president that 291 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,439 Speaker 1: has no legitimacy, no popular legitimacy, that has no international support, 292 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: and has no popular support. This is a very very 293 00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:29,640 Speaker 1: dangerous course for the armed forces, and if I were 294 00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: to bet, it's a course that they will not be 295 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: able to sustain. So how do you see this plan 296 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: gat in the coming weeks. I pray for a Ferdinand 297 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,040 Speaker 1: Marcos solution where they just decide to leave. There is 298 00:17:42,080 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 1: a Monroe doctrine which I believe is from a few 299 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 1: years ago. James Monroe John was on the boat when 300 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: Washington cross the Delaware. He was holding the flag. Okay, 301 00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 1: President states, we hear of Russia coming to the rescue 302 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:00,480 Speaker 1: of Mr Maduro, maybe even China. I'm speculating there, but 303 00:18:00,560 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: there is a Monroe doctrine. Can Russia project their opinion 304 00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: on the collapse of destination in the Caribbean against the 305 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 1: Monroe doctrine? Say? What I can say about Russia is 306 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:18,360 Speaker 1: that the Venezuelan debt to the Russian government is relatively small, 307 00:18:18,760 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 1: and it went into funding arms, the Sukoi vire jets 308 00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 1: and submarines and stuff like that. The bulk of the 309 00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: interest of Russia is interested by Russian oligarchs like Rosneft 310 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: and some mining shady mining companies that want to do 311 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: some shady deals in Venezuela by getting allocations of of 312 00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:45,160 Speaker 1: concersions that we don't know about. Russia is supporting Maduro 313 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,000 Speaker 1: and they've said so. China has said that they are 314 00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,480 Speaker 1: going to sit on defense they always do on the 315 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:54,520 Speaker 1: international stage seemingly well. I don't think they could have 316 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: taken a different position. I appreciate the fact that they've 317 00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:59,679 Speaker 1: decided to sit on defense for the Russians when they 318 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:04,439 Speaker 1: sound us not to intervene. Does that achieve anything? I 319 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:09,199 Speaker 1: think in this is just political and it's pr But 320 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,520 Speaker 1: they cannot. They cannot bail out Venezuela. Innezuela's too big 321 00:19:13,560 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: for for Russia's difficult financial situation. Let's go back to 322 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: my childhood. We know of no more important problems anywhere anytime, 323 00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: then the problems of our neighbors. We want to see 324 00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: our relations with them be the very best. Linden Baines 325 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: Johnson December of nineteen sixty three. Is he tried to 326 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 1: figure out what to do and then two years on 327 00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:38,520 Speaker 1: in the Dominican Republic as well? Why is this different 328 00:19:38,560 --> 00:19:42,440 Speaker 1: as America projects to Caracas than all the other attempts 329 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:46,159 Speaker 1: we've made in the twentieth century. I I think We 330 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: shouldn't play the US as a main actor here. The 331 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: main actors here are it's the whole of Latin America. 332 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: I would even say that it is because the economic 333 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,919 Speaker 1: catastrophe of Venezuela has transformed into human Italian catastrophe that 334 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,880 Speaker 1: has led to what I estimated be over five million 335 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 1: Venezuelans to have left the country. That means that it 336 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,680 Speaker 1: is now the Venezuela refugees are a top issue in Colombia, 337 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,480 Speaker 1: in equal or Peru. So it's the read. The whole 338 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 1: region needs a political transition in Venezuela because Venezuelans cannot 339 00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 1: take it, and the rest of lastin American critical Ricardo House. 340 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: But you're gonna be on every committee to get this solved. 341 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: Which global institutions come to the rescue to rebuild a 342 00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:35,920 Speaker 1: totally fractured economy I m F, World Bank, so that 343 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: the US once again we have been in touch with 344 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,400 Speaker 1: all of them. I have been in touch with all 345 00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,880 Speaker 1: of them. I've been working for the last three years 346 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 1: on a morning after plan for Venezuela. The President Guido 347 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,800 Speaker 1: has a morning after plan. You can elaborate it. We've 348 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 1: talked to I m F, We've talked to World Bank. 349 00:20:53,720 --> 00:21:01,399 Speaker 1: We've talked absolutely now recently recently, Yes, he said about 350 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,120 Speaker 1: what about the situation and what he wants to do next? Well, 351 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,479 Speaker 1: I mean what he wants. He referred him as President Guado, 352 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 1: but of course we have President Madeuau at the same time, 353 00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,040 Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering what he thinks he can achieve 354 00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,359 Speaker 1: in the very next sound. Well, if you if you 355 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: don't want to confuse them, call Maduda the dictator so 356 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:24,959 Speaker 1: um and that Folcus is classic house. President Guido is um. 357 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:30,119 Speaker 1: He has appointed charge affairs in the countries that have 358 00:21:30,200 --> 00:21:32,919 Speaker 1: recognized him. The first roar of business as we speak, 359 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:38,920 Speaker 1: is to stop the Maluda government from liquidating international assets 360 00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:42,160 Speaker 1: of the country and steal them. They're trying to move 361 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: one point two billion dollars in folds in London as 362 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,360 Speaker 1: we speak. So it's very important that all the countries 363 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 1: that have recognized President Guido don't allow this illegitimate agency. 364 00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,719 Speaker 1: This is important. John Taylor, Stanford University was an expert 365 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,280 Speaker 1: on this. After nine eleven, How does United States assist 366 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:05,199 Speaker 1: Venezuela and as you say, the theft of this gold? 367 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 1: What do we do right now? What what the US 368 00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 1: has to do was the I m F has to do? 369 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,159 Speaker 1: Was whe the UK have to do? Is not transfer 370 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: assets that are owned by the Republic or Venezla of 371 00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: Venezuela on orders of people who do not represent the 372 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 1: government of Venezuela. They should be on orders of people 373 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,800 Speaker 1: who are the legal representatives of President. Why though that 374 00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,719 Speaker 1: they recognize as the legitimate president of House And we're 375 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: gonna run out of time. One final question. Investors desperately 376 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 1: are needed to come back to Venezuela. How does that happen? Well? 377 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 1: How do you get the catalyst to get the wonderful 378 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: Venezuela of old back again. We need to empower Venezuelans 379 00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 1: with economic freedoms and economic rights, and we need international 380 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:54,040 Speaker 1: financial support to eliminate the balance of payments constraints so 381 00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: we can get more intermediate inputs, more raw materials, so 382 00:22:57,960 --> 00:22:59,960 Speaker 1: that we can get more output and we cover the 383 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,879 Speaker 1: as Ricardo Housman thank you so much of Harvard University, 384 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: of course formally with an earlier government in Venezuela. And 385 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 1: we need to thank our Eric Martin, with his years 386 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 1: of experience in Latin America for arranging this interview on 387 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:30,320 Speaker 1: very very short notice. This is what we love to 388 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,840 Speaker 1: do at Bloomberg Surveillance. We were honored to have Ricardo 389 00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 1: Husman with us from Harvard University earlier today. He has 390 00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: served in public office in his Venezuela and now the 391 00:23:41,440 --> 00:23:46,159 Speaker 1: authority in America on Venezuela, Shannon O'Neil, the Council on 392 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,399 Speaker 1: Foreign Relation's wonderful. Dr O'Neil, thrilled to have you with us. 393 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:52,399 Speaker 1: I go back to your Bloomberg opinion piece UH of 394 00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: September of last year. US military intervention in Venezuela would 395 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,280 Speaker 1: be a disaster with a black and white picture of 396 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: my childhood. We always get it wrong. How can we 397 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 1: help the new Venezuela and not do what we've done 398 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: time after time after time. Well, this is a big challenge. 399 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 1: Right now. We have a Trump administration that's coming out 400 00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: and recognizing an individual ahead of the Congress as the 401 00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 1: legitimate president of Venezuela, while we have Maduro still in 402 00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 1: firm control of the reigns of power there with the 403 00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 1: military backing him at least so far. So the question 404 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,320 Speaker 1: here is where can the United States come in? And 405 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: as you mentioned that our bed I don't think it's 406 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: a military intervention. It is really to help with the 407 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,560 Speaker 1: Venezuelan people, three million of whom have left the country 408 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,480 Speaker 1: in the last few years, helping them where they're going, 409 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: rather than looking internally, particularly in the military way to Venezuela. 410 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,600 Speaker 1: Professor House been literally on the phone here in dav 411 00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,639 Speaker 1: Ocean and talking to the new leadership of Venezuela if 412 00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,600 Speaker 1: they finally completely take over. Daniel Jurgen with us on 413 00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:03,040 Speaker 1: the ve Pezuela that once was in the challenges of oil. 414 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 1: Where do you presume the billions of dollars would come 415 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:12,639 Speaker 1: from to assist this nation forward? Now, some of it 416 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,719 Speaker 1: would come from the United States when we see if 417 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,920 Speaker 1: we see a new leadership there and a new government 418 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 1: come in, some would come from that oil sector. Venezuela 419 00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,320 Speaker 1: has reserved larger than those of Saudi Arabia, so there 420 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:28,600 Speaker 1: is wealth there to bring out into help rebuild that nation. 421 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: But it would have to be an international commitment as well, 422 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:36,000 Speaker 1: both financially but also in rebuilding the basic infrastructure of 423 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: the bureaucracies. There's so many things to rebuild in Venezuela 424 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 1: that have been destroyed over the last twenty years. So Shannon, 425 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 1: one of the unique aspects of this situation right now 426 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,399 Speaker 1: is that Venezuela in effect has two presidents, which almost 427 00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: as like you have no president. I'm not really sure 428 00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: how the company, how the country goes from here next steps, 429 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:56,720 Speaker 1: But what do you think has to happen out of 430 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,639 Speaker 1: Venezuela in the near term to give the rest of 431 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: the world some clarity on maybe how the rest of 432 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:06,120 Speaker 1: the world can help. We need to see where these 433 00:26:06,240 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 1: two competing forces go. So right now we have a 434 00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,880 Speaker 1: des jury president Guido, who has announced themselves as head 435 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: of the Congress, but we have a de facto president 436 00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 1: Maduro who is still in the presidential palace and at 437 00:26:17,920 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: least so far with the military behind them. So what 438 00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 1: we should be watching over the next hours and days 439 00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:26,000 Speaker 1: and weeks is what happens to the protests in the streets. 440 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 1: Do people continue to come out, and what happens with 441 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 1: the security forces, with the military, with the National Guard, 442 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 1: with others. Do they stay with the Maduro or do 443 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 1: they begin to break off and support the new government. 444 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 1: If they do the latter, If we see support for 445 00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,760 Speaker 1: this new government, then I do think there may be 446 00:26:42,880 --> 00:26:45,640 Speaker 1: things that the United States and other nations can do 447 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 1: outside We've condemned them, as have many other nations, seeing 448 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 1: Madure as an illegitimate president. But there's very little we 449 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: can do inside Venezuela. It's really up to the Venezuelan 450 00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,720 Speaker 1: people and in the end, the military. Well, I think 451 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,240 Speaker 1: the new president, well, I guess it's I wonder were 452 00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:03,359 Speaker 1: you surprised that the military did not go with the 453 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,119 Speaker 1: new president at the get go? It seems like that 454 00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:10,720 Speaker 1: is the time when we typically see military arms make 455 00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:14,240 Speaker 1: their choice. Now, I was not surprised because when we 456 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 1: look at Maduro's government, it is in many ways already 457 00:27:17,720 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 1: a military government. You see a whole host of governors 458 00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 1: or military officers. The military controls the energy sector, it 459 00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 1: controls the distribution of food within Venezuela. They are really 460 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,560 Speaker 1: this is a military government anyways, in many ways, even 461 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,400 Speaker 1: though Maduro himself is not a military man. So I'm 462 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: not surprised that the leadership hasn't left him. How about 463 00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 1: the other neighboring countries in Latin America, UM, not that 464 00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,800 Speaker 1: they're in the you know, pillars of strength themselves, but 465 00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:50,119 Speaker 1: is there anything they can do? Um besides you know, 466 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 1: welcoming the three million refugees that have that have fled 467 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,400 Speaker 1: to Venezuela. Well, you've seen most of these other governments 468 00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 1: around Venezuela denial of Demoscive Maduro as well. So come 469 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,880 Speaker 1: out for Guidos as the president of the legitimate presidents, 470 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 1: interim president. Um. You know. The other thing that Latin 471 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: American nations could do, which the United States has done, 472 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 1: is put sanctions, put sanctions on individuals in Venezuela for 473 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:17,680 Speaker 1: human rights, abuses, for corruption and the like. Not let 474 00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: these people spend their money or their families spend their 475 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: money in Latin American countries or go through their banks. 476 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 1: Um to you, the Latin America could step up that 477 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:31,159 Speaker 1: financial pressure, that economic pressure on Venezuela along with the 478 00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: rhetorical condemnation that we've seen. Shannon, we have to have allies. 479 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,320 Speaker 1: I would suggest that this is a United States. Oh 480 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 1: here's a headline that's out right now. This is exceptionally important, 481 00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,880 Speaker 1: Shannon O'Neill. Let me please interrupt. The Federal Aviation Agency 482 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,040 Speaker 1: has announced that they have halted flights into New York 483 00:28:52,120 --> 00:28:58,680 Speaker 1: City's LaGuardia Airport on an a TC staff shortage and Davos. 484 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:02,360 Speaker 1: That's all I have. The Federal Aviation Administration holding flights 485 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 1: into New York's LaGuardia on a t C staff shortage. 486 00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 1: Will have much more on that on Bloomberg Radio. Are 487 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,320 Speaker 1: Michael Barr and John Tucker no doubt working on that 488 00:29:11,960 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 1: carefully here in New York. It will distribute that to 489 00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: our audience worldwide and coast to coast, just so many 490 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:21,200 Speaker 1: come into LaGuardia, Shannon, I hope you weren't going out 491 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,600 Speaker 1: of LaGuardia today. I just got back yesterday, so I'm good. 492 00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,280 Speaker 1: That's good. You're good, and I'm coming in. I don't 493 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 1: know at some point, but the golf stream doesn't go 494 00:29:29,160 --> 00:29:33,080 Speaker 1: into Laguardias. I'll be I'll be okay, Shannon, you need 495 00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:35,960 Speaker 1: to write a new book on Latin America. I'm gonna 496 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:39,800 Speaker 1: give you an open questionnaire. One final question. You have 497 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 1: such a scope and scale, Which nation besides Venezuela has 498 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:48,920 Speaker 1: the O'Neill attention right now? We know I just returned 499 00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:51,680 Speaker 1: from Argentina yesterday, and so I'm thinking a lot about 500 00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:54,680 Speaker 1: Argentina looking at Makri two thousand, nineteen of the year 501 00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:57,240 Speaker 1: he's going to face a presidential election. We've seen the 502 00:29:57,280 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 1: I m F down there, giving them not one but 503 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 1: to agree months and some fifty seven billion dollars that's 504 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 1: coming into that nation. So watching what happens there with 505 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,800 Speaker 1: the economy, with the elections come next October, and then 506 00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 1: what happens to Argentina after the elections, whoever wins, whether 507 00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 1: it's Maki or one of the parentifts. So I've been 508 00:30:15,600 --> 00:30:19,720 Speaker 1: watching that very good. I'm gonna be very direct, folks. 509 00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,880 Speaker 1: This single red headline across the Bloomberg f A flights 510 00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:26,360 Speaker 1: in the New York's Leaguardia. We'll get to in a moment. 511 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 1: Shannon O'Neil on short notice, we are thrilled at you, 512 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,520 Speaker 1: and Ricardo Houseman and Daniel Jurgen could join us today 513 00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,320 Speaker 1: with perspective on Hydrocarbon's Houseman's Venezuela, and of course Shannon 514 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 1: on neil let's seefr on all of her abilities on 515 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: Latin America. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 516 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:57,320 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 517 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane. 518 00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,400 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm 519 00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:07,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio