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Speaker 3: You're at the volume. Have you Friday? Everybody?

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Speaker 2: Hope all of you guys are having an incredible week

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Speaker 2: so far. As we head into this jam packed NBA weekend,

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Speaker 2: we have a very special show today. The guys from

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Speaker 2: nerd Sets, Logan and Carson are coming on. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about all of the big time scenarios that are

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Speaker 2: taking place over the next few days. We have, first

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Speaker 2: of all, our contender lists, and Logan and Carson released

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Speaker 2: their contender lists on their show and also on Instagram

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Speaker 2: the other day and I was looking at it and

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Speaker 2: both of them have the Phoenix Suns.

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Speaker 3: Completely off their list. So we're gonna debate that.

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Speaker 2: Talk about a couple other things on their list, and

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Speaker 2: that they're gonna come at me about things that they

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Speaker 2: disagree about with my list. Also, after that, we're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about the top of the Eastern Conference in light

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Speaker 2: of the Yannis injury. Are the Celtics just gonna kill

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Speaker 2: everybody or is there a threat in there. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about that. After that, we're gonna look at the

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Speaker 2: bottom of the Western Conference because the play in tournament

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Speaker 2: can go in a million different directions. This weekend we're

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Speaker 2: gonna dig into some scenarios and what we expect to

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Speaker 2: see there. And then lastly, today we have one playoff

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Speaker 2: series that is set in stone. Even the Eastern Conference

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Speaker 2: is completely up in flux right now, but in the

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Speaker 2: Western Conference, we are going to get the rematch of

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Speaker 2: the rematch of Clippers versus MAVs, and we're gonna just

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Speaker 2: do a full blown series preview, diving into that series

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Speaker 2: tactically on both ends of the floor, and we will

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Speaker 2: end that segment with us making our predictions. So without

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Speaker 2: any further ado, Carson and Logan, I was shocked when

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Speaker 2: I put my list together and I had Phoenix at five,

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Speaker 2: mainly just because they have two of the top fifteen

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Speaker 2: players in the league on their roster, and a center

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Speaker 2: that can bang bodies with Nicole Jokic and give him

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Speaker 2: some issues. And a ton of off ball talent, including

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Speaker 2: Bradley Beale that can help space teams out. I think

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Speaker 2: they're the best driving kick team in the league, and

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Speaker 2: so I'm higher on them than you guys, And I

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Speaker 2: was stunned to see the teams like, let's just say

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Speaker 2: the Miami Heat if we're above them, and some other

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Speaker 2: examples around the league. So you guys have an opportunity

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Speaker 2: now to defend yourselves, and we'll start with you, Carson.

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Speaker 2: Why are the Phoenix Suns not a top ten contender

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Speaker 2: for you?

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Speaker 4: Specifically on the question of the Heat. That is just

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Speaker 4: a tough one, because I do think that the Suns

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Speaker 4: are better than Miami. I just kind of felt like,

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Speaker 4: if I leave the Heat entirely off of this top

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Speaker 4: ten list, just considering how they have defied their regular

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Speaker 4: season results and how proven their playoff formula of elite defense,

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Speaker 4: Jimmy somehow elevating to this legit offensive number one is

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Speaker 4: and I like their collection of wings and secondary creators

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Speaker 4: more than last year. I felt like putting them in

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Speaker 4: the ten spot was sort of a happy medium between

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Speaker 4: the team they've looked like this regular season and the

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Speaker 4: team that we have seen them capable of ascending to,

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Speaker 4: even though I think they were very fortunate in various

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Speaker 4: respects in terms of last year's playoff run. But on

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Speaker 4: the question of the Suns, I was surprised to see

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Speaker 4: that you have them all the way up at five.

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Speaker 3: I think that they.

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Speaker 4: Belong right around that ten to eleven twelve range. They

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Speaker 4: absolutely do scare me because they have Kevin Durant and

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Speaker 4: Devin Booker and just the pull up shot making, the

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Speaker 4: offensive skill that those guys are capable of putting forth

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Speaker 4: as one of the best scoring duos that we have

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Speaker 4: seen in the history of this league like that is

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Speaker 4: absolutely terrifying, and we saw it against the Nuggets last year.

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Speaker 4: They were the team that was able to steal two

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Speaker 4: games away just because those two would especially book were

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Speaker 4: so unconscious, they were so absurdly good as pull up

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Speaker 4: shooters that they were able to generrate a sort of

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Speaker 4: offensive success that even though the Nuggets were still getting there.

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Speaker 4: Is it just outweighed that. But when I look at

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Speaker 4: the scope of the West this year, I do think

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of really strong teams, and I think

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Speaker 4: there's a decent amount of teams that are a bit

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Speaker 4: more complete at Phoenix, And if we sort of break

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Speaker 4: them into different categories, if I compare them to like

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Speaker 4: these skill based teams, where we have these huge, jumbo

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Speaker 4: sized teams out West that are probably gonna defend at

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Speaker 4: a really high level and have these big physical advantages,

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Speaker 4: and then we have the teams like the Thunder and

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Speaker 4: the Clippers, where the Thunder are obviously uniquely small and slight,

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Speaker 4: but the Clippers, although they play a traditional five like

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Speaker 4: the Suns do, these are skill based teams based on

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Speaker 4: their perimeter shows. And in both the Clippers and Suns cases,

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Speaker 4: it's not about like we have these super high end

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Speaker 4: athletes who are gonna consistently generate this rim pressure. It's

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Speaker 4: about the skilled shotmaking and shot creation of their wings.

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Speaker 4: And I just think we have seen a much higher

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Speaker 4: ceiling from the Clippers. I do think they have a

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Speaker 4: different level of physicality, just when you think about how

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Speaker 4: Kawhi alone can impose himself in those environments. Even though

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Speaker 4: they've been bad defensively for two months, they have shown

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Speaker 4: a higher defensive ceiling, and I like their perimeter talent

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Speaker 4: there and Zubots on the interior more and I think

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Speaker 4: they have the best player in that series. So I

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Speaker 4: like La Moore. I know you agree with that one,

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Speaker 4: and I'm not as high on La as you are, Okay, See,

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Speaker 4: I just think is so much more proven defensively. They're

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Speaker 4: so athletic on the perimeter, they're so pesky, they're so

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Speaker 4: consistently dialed in there. Chet obviously his slightness is an issue,

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Speaker 4: and we saw Nirk get his thirty boards against him

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Speaker 4: because there's just such a massive strength advantage there. But

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Speaker 4: I still think Chet's an elite pure rimper. And then

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Speaker 4: I like the formula that Okse has of multiple dudes

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Speaker 4: who are just so hard to stay in front of.

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Speaker 4: I think they're the best driving kick team in the

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Speaker 4: league just because of the consistent penetration that you get

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Speaker 4: from Jadab and Shay, and they have I would say,

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Speaker 4: a better three point shooting cast overall, but also a

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Speaker 4: higher volume three point shooting cast, So I think there's

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Speaker 4: a higher ceiling there. And then I prefer the Lakers.

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Speaker 4: I think that their formula of two top ten guys

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Speaker 4: with the secondary shot creation we've seen with Ruey and

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Speaker 4: the starting five. They're huge. Their offense has been really good,

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Speaker 4: and I think they clearly have a higher defensive ceiling

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Speaker 4: if Vanda is healthy. And I just like how their

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Speaker 4: two top ten players compliment each other. Eighty dominates defensively,

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Speaker 4: Lebron dominates offensively. They both impose themselves physically, the two Wolves,

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Speaker 4: I just think that defense is so great. So ultimately

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Speaker 4: it comes down to the fact that a lot of

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Speaker 4: these teams have had their moments, They've had their stretches

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Speaker 4: where you're like, boy, they look like Juggernauts, the Clippers

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Speaker 4: when they went twenty six and six, the Lakers, even

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Speaker 4: if it's been in shorter spurts, I would argue mostly

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Speaker 4: post All Star breaking in the Ncason Tournament, the Tea, Wolves,

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Speaker 4: the Thunder, these teams have just consistently won a whole

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Speaker 4: bunch of games. Phoenix hasn't really had that stretch to me,

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Speaker 4: and I think that they're going to be pretty average defensively,

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Speaker 4: and they're going to ask their stars to take on

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Speaker 4: a significant burden there just because of the nature of

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Speaker 4: their roster composition. I think although Book and Kadie are

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Speaker 4: so unbelievable as shot makers, and although they do have

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Speaker 4: good complimentary off ball pieces, there's a reason this team

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Speaker 4: is still eleventh in offensive rating, and it's because they

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Speaker 4: don't really have that ability to just break open a

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Speaker 4: crazy ceiling because of the lack of high end rim

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Speaker 4: pressure for any of their stars and because of the

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Speaker 4: fact that they aren't a high volume three point shooting team.

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Speaker 4: So it may be the reality that these dudes can

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Speaker 4: sit there and make fifty percent of their mid range

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Speaker 4: pull up jumpers over you, night after night, and that's

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Speaker 4: good offense, but it's not great offense in the same

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Speaker 4: way that some of these other teams would more physical

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Speaker 4: advantages than higher shooter ceilings are. I don't love the

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Speaker 4: depth here, and this team has just been so disastrous

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Speaker 4: in fourth quarters on both sides of the ball. I

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Speaker 4: think their offensive process has been bad. They've been sloppy,

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Speaker 4: they've been super turnover prone. So the Suns are still

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Speaker 4: an uncomfortable first round draw to me, absolutely, but I

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Speaker 4: don't view them as being in that contender tier because

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Speaker 4: it's kind of like with their defensive limitations, with the

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Speaker 4: fact that they haven't reached the offensive peaks that some

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Speaker 4: of these other teams have with the fact that they

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Speaker 4: aren't the most physically imposing, it's tough for me to

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Speaker 4: see them stringing together like series after series after series.

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Speaker 1: I think Carson hit on a few key points that

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Speaker 1: I really agree with. On the Miami Phoenix point when

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Speaker 1: he's talking about these teams underperforming in the regular season,

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Speaker 1: I do think Miami just their track record, they've shown

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Speaker 1: us that they can just turn around and flip a

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Speaker 1: switch and be a completely different team in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: when I don't really see that with Phoenix. I think

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Speaker 1: it's they've shown me too many red flags in the

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Speaker 1: regular season. And I also think it's a fundamental roster

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Speaker 1: construction issue. I think you're expecting role players to play

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Speaker 1: above their means when I also don't love their depth,

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Speaker 1: and then I think you're expecting stars to fill roles

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Speaker 1: that they just aren't equipped to phill, where like Carson said,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna ask these guys to go above and beyond

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Speaker 1: defensively and on the glass and just feel things that

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Speaker 1: they're not really equipped to do. The real issue that

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Speaker 1: I have with Phoenix is their late game offense in

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Speaker 1: just late game process in general, like they have been

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Speaker 1: horrid in fourth quarters. They have been horrid in the clutch.

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Speaker 1: They are thirtieth and fourth quarter offensive rating this season

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Speaker 1: one oh four point one. They're twenty second in fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter defensive rating. They have the worst net rating in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter of any team in the NBA, and

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Speaker 1: they're twenty ninth in turnover percentage in the clutch. They're

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Speaker 1: twenty third in offense, they're fourteenth in defense in the clutch.

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Speaker 1: They're nineteenth and net rating in the clutch, And that

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Speaker 1: to me is the real stain for Phoenix personnel wise.

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Speaker 1: You guys are right like big NRK KD Beal book

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Speaker 1: These are guys that can really swing a series and

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Speaker 1: swing games, but they just haven't shown it enough to me. Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm just I'm really scarred by all the late game

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Speaker 1: collapses that I've seen with Phoenix where it's I don't know, man,

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Speaker 1: Eric Gordon trying to push the ball up in transition

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Speaker 1: and you know, Grayson Allen trying to do too much,

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Speaker 1: and I am screaming at my television going, hey, guys,

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Speaker 1: can we get Devin Booker a touch? Like I can't

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Speaker 1: remember what game it was a couple of weeks ago,

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Speaker 1: but it's like the final three minutes, Devin Booker doesn't

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Speaker 1: touch the ball on offense in the fourth quarter, and

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Speaker 1: I don't know there's there's That's my biggest issue is

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Speaker 1: there's not like a hierarchy to this team where the

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Speaker 1: role players really complement the team. And then yeah, in

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Speaker 1: late game scenarios, it's guys trying to do too much.

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Speaker 1: It's them settling for mid range jumpers. Like the Suns

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Speaker 1: just haven't shown it to me enough this season to

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Speaker 1: where I can believe in them and I trust that

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Speaker 1: this is the Suns team that we're gonna get. We're

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Speaker 1: in fourth quarters, they play below their means, we're in

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Speaker 1: the clutch, they perform like this team. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a higher ceiling they can reach. But like I really

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Speaker 1: just I think they've shown us who they are too

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Speaker 1: many times in this regular season, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: this is a switch issue where they can just effort

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Speaker 1: and energy wise and just lock in. I think there's

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Speaker 1: way more issues under the surface.

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Speaker 2: I agree with a lot of what you guys are saying.

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Speaker 2: They've been a jeckal and Hyde team. They are the

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Speaker 2: definition of a team that like when they play basketball

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Speaker 2: the right way, offensively like advantage creation basketball, where their

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Speaker 2: stars just look to get the defense in rotation and

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Speaker 2: then they play drive and kick. They can be devastating.

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Speaker 2: They've had stretches of games they just recently played like

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Speaker 2: a five or six straight Top ten defenses and had

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Speaker 2: like a seventy percent assist percentage in those games, and

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Speaker 2: they lit them all up. But then they'll lose sight

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Speaker 2: of that sometimes and they'll get sloppy. They they struggle

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Speaker 2: to handle ball pressure and apps and things along those lines.

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Speaker 2: They're guys that like to prefer there are guys that

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Speaker 2: prefer to work in the action when they're comfortable, and

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Speaker 2: then as soon as teams really kind of again, like

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Speaker 2: when you trap a team or double team a player,

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Speaker 2: it's a good thing typically, and Phoenix is really good

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Speaker 2: at capitalizing on that. The reason why I think they're

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Speaker 2: a better driving kick team than Oklahoma City is literally

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Speaker 2: because of the fact that they're off bubble.

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Speaker 3: They don't have like a Josh.

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Speaker 2: Giddy or Elude Dort and loud Dort shot the ball

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Speaker 2: really well this year, but he can get a little

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Speaker 2: tunnel vision when he's driving closeouts, and obviously Giddy can

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Speaker 2: is a guy that you typically are leaving open when

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Speaker 2: I try to think of the Suns within the scope

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Speaker 2: of their best five players, which in my opinion, Suns

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Speaker 2: fans disagree about this. Some of them think it should

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Speaker 2: be Royce O'Neil. I personally think it should be Grayson Allen.

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Speaker 2: But when they actually have you know, Booker, Bal Durant, Allen,

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Speaker 2: and Nurkic out there, you're closing out hard basically at

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Speaker 2: everybody except for Nurkic. And Nurkic is such a connective

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Speaker 2: piece in terms of his ability to make reads when

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Speaker 2: he's left open and to quickly turn in pivot into dribble,

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Speaker 2: handoffs and stuff. When they play the right way, they

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Speaker 2: can be very good. That Jekyl and Hyde piece is

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Speaker 2: what I think gets people off of them. I agree

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Speaker 2: as well as it pertains to the physicality, Like Carson mentioned,

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Speaker 2: like Phoenix has a tendency to get punched in the

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Speaker 2: mouth and then struggle, But then I've also seen them

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Speaker 2: rise to the physical challenge of Denver a few times too,

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Speaker 2: and so like it comes to the point of that

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Speaker 2: which team are they? Are they the high end version

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Speaker 2: or are they the low end version. One of the

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Speaker 2: things that I think people have to keep in mind.

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Speaker 2: Is like, for instance, in the Clippers game, Nurkic didn't play. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: that's not an excuse to completely wipe that performance away,

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Speaker 2: But more often than not this year, when they've been

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Speaker 2: down guys is when they've looked bad. As a matter

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Speaker 2: of fact, among all five man lineups in the NBA

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Speaker 2: this year that played at least four hundred minutes, the

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Speaker 2: Durant Beale, Nurkic, Booker Allen lineup has been the fourth

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Speaker 2: best in the entire league, outscoring teams by ten point

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Speaker 2: three points per one hundred possessions and a one to

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Speaker 2: twenty four offensive rating, which is the second best in

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Speaker 2: the league to the classic starting five for Denver, which,

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Speaker 2: by the way, a one to twenty six offensive This season,

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Speaker 2: Lordship outscoring teams by fourteen points per one hundred possessions.

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Speaker 2: So Denver just looking like a complete and total jugger

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Speaker 2: not But again the case the case there is like

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Speaker 2: they're better than they've looked because when they're healthy, they

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Speaker 2: tend to play a certain style and they've been better

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Speaker 2: in those situations. They also have shown really good upside

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Speaker 2: to me in some specific matchups, to me, getting out

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Speaker 2: of the Western Conference, A prerequisite. A prerequisite was Denver,

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Speaker 2: and I almost going into about a week and a

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Speaker 2: half ago, I had Phoenix above Dallas and will kind

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Speaker 2: of flip that dynamic for me was seeing Dallas hold

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Speaker 2: up better physically in some tougher matchups, but like to me,

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Speaker 2: that ability of Nurkic to just kind of make things

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Speaker 2: a little tougher on Jokic, especially in the second Denver game.

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Speaker 2: I thought Kevin Durant was unbelievable defense in that game.

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Speaker 2: And so when Nurkic is bodying Jokic and kd is

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Speaker 2: bringing that kind of back line length that we know

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Speaker 2: can be so devastating, they provide a little bit of

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Speaker 2: a tougher matchup. The other thing, too, Denver is a

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Speaker 2: high drop and tag team for the most part, So

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Speaker 2: what that means is they are pretty consistently leaving someone

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Speaker 2: open on defense, and Phoenix is the type of team

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Speaker 2: that can capitalize that on that in a way that

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Speaker 2: some other teams can't. Like, they're a team that like

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Speaker 2: when they actually handle pressure well and get rid of

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Speaker 2: the ball to the right spots, they're really difficult to guard.

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Speaker 2: And so the case again, I agree with you I

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Speaker 2: have the Clippers above them, I have Dallas above them.

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Speaker 2: But to me, the reason why I have them as

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Speaker 2: high as I do is they match up well with Denver.

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Speaker 2: And it really is that simple in my opinion, all

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Speaker 2: of these other teams, like as good as Dallas is,

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Speaker 2: Jokic is gonna eat their front line alive, you know

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Speaker 2: what I mean in a seven gamer, right, Like as

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Speaker 2: good as the Lakers are, Jamal Murray's gonna eat their

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Speaker 2: best court alive. Right, as good as the Clippers are,

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Speaker 2: they've consistently struggled with Denver and just their ability to

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Speaker 2: pick them apart on offense.

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Speaker 3: So, like I.

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Speaker 2: Understand where you guys are coming from. I just think

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Speaker 2: pure talent matchup advantages in the Western Conference. Kind of

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Speaker 2: sifting through some of their good and bad this year,

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Speaker 2: I still view them as a significant and substantial threat.

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Speaker 3: All right, So I got one.

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Speaker 2: More quick phone to pick with each of you guys,

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Speaker 2: and we'll just go one on one for each of

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Speaker 2: these real quick, and then I'll let you guys go

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Speaker 2: after my list a little bit. So, Carson, you had

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Speaker 2: the Timberwolves at five.

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Speaker 3: If I remember correctly, I think I had them at four. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: you had them way up.

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Speaker 2: I was watching once again the Denver Minnesota game last

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Speaker 2: night two nights ago, and I did a pretty extensive

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Speaker 2: film session on it, and like, I just remain convinced

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Speaker 2: that the Timberwolves are just not going to be able

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Speaker 2: to score consistently when they get into these situations. And

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Speaker 2: there are enough guys in their lineups that you can

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Speaker 2: pick on on the defensive end of the floor that

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Speaker 2: you can find a way to score, which is why

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Speaker 2: Minnesota's clutch time defense has been so bad. I'm just

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Speaker 2: not very high on the Timberwolves. What's your where are

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Speaker 2: you getting your optimism from?

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Speaker 1: So?

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Speaker 4: I think the Timberwolves are like maybe the most interesting

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Speaker 4: team headed into the playoffs because they sort of contradict

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Speaker 4: the various precedents that we have for successful playoff teams.

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Speaker 4: The first box that it feels like you pretty much

367
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Speaker 4: always have to check if you want to make a

368
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Speaker 4: deep playoff run is having a Tier one superstar guy.

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Speaker 4: And I love Amp, but he's just not at that

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Speaker 4: level yet. He's not consistent enough as a playmaker, he's

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Speaker 4: not consistent enough as a pull up shooter. He's just

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Speaker 4: going to continue to refine his game and he will

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Speaker 4: ascend to that level, but he's not there yet. And

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Speaker 4: along with that, you have to have a good offense,

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Speaker 4: and you have to have a good half court offense.

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Speaker 4: And that's a reason that I have been consistently out

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Speaker 4: on a team like the Grizzlies in recent years because

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Speaker 4: they just haven't produced in the half court in the

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Speaker 4: regular season, and then you get into the playoff environments

380
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Speaker 4: and you see that their offensive skill level and half

381
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Speaker 4: court creation isn't quite up to the level of these

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Speaker 4: other teams that maybe they're beating in the regular season.

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Speaker 4: Some of the reasons I feel differently about Minnesota. Number one,

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Speaker 4: I don't think that they have then enough offensive pop

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Speaker 4: to beat Denver, like I definitely wouldn't pick it. I

386
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Speaker 4: also think they make Denver more uncomfortable and defend them

387
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Speaker 4: significantly better than anybody else. And so that alone is

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Speaker 4: just a punch that nobody else can throw because it's

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Speaker 4: so hard trying to figure out how do you beat Denver.

390
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Speaker 4: Is it you just go nuclear offensively or you slow

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Speaker 4: them down offensively enough? Nobody is taking away Denver being

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Speaker 4: a damn good offense, But is it just we take

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Speaker 4: away seven eight percent of their production? And then we

394
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Speaker 4: can grind out enough to outpace that. And that's where

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Speaker 4: I kind of view the MAVs as the best offensive

396
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Speaker 4: threat because Luke and Kyrie are going nuclear that shot creation.

397
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Speaker 4: To me, the ceiling there exceeds what the Suns would

398
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Speaker 4: have in a similar mold. And then I do think

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Speaker 4: Dallas has been defending better and matches up better physically.

400
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Speaker 4: And then the t Wolves are sort of the alternative

401
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 4: where it's just we grind this series down and make

402
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,159
Speaker 4: it ugly and defend them better than anybody else. And

403
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 4: I do think that they're a pretty exceptional team defensively.

404
00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 4: The gap between them and the number two defense in

405
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Speaker 4: the league right now in terms of defensive rating is

406
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Speaker 4: the biggest that we have seen in thirty years and

407
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Speaker 4: entirely different NBA. Yeah, but the last team who had

408
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:34,880
Speaker 4: that big a margin was the ninety four Knicks, who

409
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Speaker 4: were a mediocre offense. They were sixteenth in offensive rating

410
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Speaker 4: and they still made the finals just on the back

411
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Speaker 4: of how great that defense was. So again, different leagues,

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Speaker 4: but generally, that fundamental truth has always been the same.

413
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Speaker 4: You have to produce offensively, and you have to do

414
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Speaker 4: it in the half court. I just wonder if Minnesota

415
00:20:52,920 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 4: is so great defensively, and they're so brutal for anybody

416
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Speaker 4: to play, and they're so physically overwhelming, like that's the

417
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Speaker 4: thing they are going to win on the glass in

418
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Speaker 4: these matchups. I think that defensively they really have an

419
00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 4: answer for anybody because they have such hounds at the

420
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Speaker 4: point of attack. They're so athletic there, they're so consistently

421
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 4: dialed in and they're physical, and then you have the

422
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 4: best rim protector in basketball still the best interior defender.

423
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Speaker 4: I think at his physicality as the four when he's

424
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Speaker 4: back out there, what he can do as a post defender, like,

425
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Speaker 4: I think he's improved substantially defensively. So they do violate

426
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Speaker 4: that principle that you have to produce offensively. But it's

427
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,320
Speaker 4: kind of like, who do I think is going to

428
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Speaker 4: score enough on them for that to matter? And it's

429
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Speaker 4: probably Dallas because I don't know you can really take

430
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: away what they're doing when Luca is on this level

431
00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,399
Speaker 4: and Kyrie is on this level, and then it's the

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Speaker 4: Nuggets everybody else. I think Minnesota grinds their offense to

433
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 4: a halt by enough to where they don't need to

434
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,640
Speaker 4: produce at like the level that we know these other

435
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 4: teams are capable of in their ceilings just because they've

436
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 4: taken such a chunk out of their offensive productions.

437
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: Okay, I have one counter, and I'll give you a

438
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 2: quick opportunity to counter that. I agree with you that

439
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 2: their defense is a huge weapon, and I think it's

440
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,880
Speaker 2: going to keep every game close. M hm, But they

441
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 2: suck in close games.

442
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,600
Speaker 3: Sure, the clutch offense has been bad.

443
00:22:19,760 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 4: The clutch offense has been bad, and like that is

444
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 4: my red flag, but I also don't want to just

445
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 4: like overlook how this defense has made them such a

446
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 4: consistently great team. And it feels very different to me

447
00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:37,240
Speaker 4: in terms of, oh, this is a team that is

448
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 4: winning a bunch of regular season games than Oka see

449
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 4: because both these teams have playoff red flags. But Minnesota

450
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 4: just checks more boxes, more experienced, way more physical, and

451
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,159
Speaker 4: I think that defense as a problem really translates. But

452
00:22:48,840 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 4: I don't disagree in my concern about the late game

453
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,160
Speaker 4: offense and the half court offense. However, I also think

454
00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 4: there will be games that, like they win comfortably just

455
00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 4: because you can't score on them. So that's kind of

456
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 4: what I'm betting on. But I wouldn't be shocked if,

457
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 4: say they drew the Lakers, if they lost that first

458
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:11,160
Speaker 4: round series at all. Even the Suns, it's like if

459
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 4: they go ice cold offensively, if Ant has a bad series,

460
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 4: if Kat doesn't look like himself, like Minnesota could lose

461
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 4: first round. I don't think the gaps are very big

462
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 4: after Denver, but I believe in that defense. I think

463
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 4: that defense translates, and I think they are going to

464
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:29,080
Speaker 4: suck to play.

465
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 2: There's a decent chance that we get Minnesota, that we

466
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 2: get Minnesota versus the Lakers in round one. We'll talk

467
00:23:37,280 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: about some of the scenarios when we get to the

468
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 2: play in bracket. But because the Timberwolves have the tiebreaker

469
00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 2: over the Thunder and they should both win out in theory,

470
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,359
Speaker 2: although the Timberwolves will have a tough game against the Suns, like,

471
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,000
Speaker 2: there's a good chance they end up at two, and

472
00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 2: if things break right for the Lakers tonight, they should

473
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,400
Speaker 2: be at the eight or the seven, which if they

474
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 2: win that game, they would end up that seven seed

475
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: facing off against Minnesota, and so that would be the

476
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 2: interesting thing is like I just imagine Lebron and Ad

477
00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 2: really really baiting Ant into his limitations as a playmaker.

478
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,119
Speaker 2: And then and then just like again that Anthony, that

479
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 2: Anthony Edwards versus Anthony Davis matchup in terms of like

480
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,719
Speaker 2: just kind of shutting off the paint. And again like

481
00:24:23,160 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 2: ad has always given Gobar issues too. That's gonna be

482
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: an interesting series. I again, I want to be clear

483
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 2: to upfront before we move on to Logan. I think

484
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 2: we're splitting hairs for most of these, like I have

485
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 2: the I told you guys that I had the Timberwolves

486
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:40,480
Speaker 2: at nine and the Bucks at eight. But if Giannis

487
00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: misses the first round, there's like a really good chance

488
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 2: they just don't make it out of the first round.

489
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:49,119
Speaker 2: And if that's the case, I'd move the Timberwolves up

490
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,719
Speaker 2: to eight, and I'd probably put the Sixers in at nine.

491
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 2: I don't think that there's much of a gap at

492
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 2: all between the Timberwolves and the MAVs, Like it's an

493
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: imperceptible gap to me, like Dallas, the Clippers, the Suns,

494
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 2: the Lakers, the thunder the Timberwolves. To me, they're all

495
00:25:05,880 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: like neck and neck, and so like you have them

496
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 2: higher than I do. We're arguing about it, but it's

497
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 2: not like we're that far apart in how much we

498
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: perceive them as a threat. Logan, I have won for you, Carson,

499
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 2: I think you had Miami at ten, correct?

500
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:20,680
Speaker 3: Correct?

501
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 2: I had Miami at ten as well, just an obligatory

502
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: I had them and the Warriors just kind of share

503
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 2: that ten spot is like a like we respect you

504
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: by the time a lifetime achievement. So and here's the thing.

505
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 2: The thing with Miami for me, Jimmy's having a war

506
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 2: season than he did last year. BAM's having a war

507
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 2: season than he did last year. There's this perception, and

508
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,600
Speaker 2: it's understood, but there's this perception that the Heat like

509
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 2: just come alive every postseason and go on a run.

510
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 2: And they've been really good. But there also was twenty

511
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 2: twenty one when they went and just got swept. So

512
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:00,000
Speaker 2: like it like what ends up happening is, in my opinion,

513
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:05,400
Speaker 2: like they can expose somebody that is not a real

514
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 2: championship contender, but they when they run into a truly

515
00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 2: great team, they tend to lose.

516
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:13,480
Speaker 3: Who do they lose to?

517
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,440
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty one the team that won the title,

518
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,399
Speaker 2: right they twenty twenty two they lost to that Celtics

519
00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: team that had a two to one lead in the finals,

520
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: they lose to the Nuggets. Like to me, they're like

521
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:28,160
Speaker 2: basically like the bouncer at the club for the championship room,

522
00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: like you got to, you gotta. They're not good enough

523
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: to actually beat any of those teams, but any team

524
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,520
Speaker 2: that runs into them that is fraudulent, they will expose.

525
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,200
Speaker 2: And So while I look at them as a legitimate

526
00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:42,159
Speaker 2: threat to like, you know, let's say Milwaukee ends up

527
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: at two and Miami ends up at seven, Like, yeah,

528
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 2: I viewed them as a threat, but I think putting

529
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: them over some of the teams you have them.

530
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 3: Above, Logan, I struggle with.

531
00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:55,679
Speaker 2: Like seven is high and like Bams still can't make

532
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 2: anything around the basket. Yeah, I get it, he's making

533
00:26:57,920 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 2: a few more threes this year than he did last year.

534
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 2: But like I just but yeah, I'm not I don't

535
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 2: necessarily view Miami as a substantial threat this year. So

536
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 2: Logan defends yourself, why is Miami up at number seven?

537
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 1: Miami to be just has such a high floor that

538
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 1: I can bank on. And I want to be clear too,

539
00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 1: I think Bam is the biggest swing factor for the

540
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 1: Heat once again this postseason. What Bam brings them offensively

541
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 1: is going to determine their ceiling because it's ugly man like.

542
00:27:30,119 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 1: And it's frustrating with Bam because he's such a talented,

543
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 1: like athletic guy. But there's just possessions man in games

544
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 1: to games where like, I just don't ever think BAM's

545
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 1: gonna fully figure it out offensively where he's it'll be

546
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 1: early in the shot clock, man. And it's situational too,

547
00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:48,639
Speaker 1: because some of these games it's without Jimmy or it's

548
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: without heroes. So Bam already has this extra expected load

549
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: on him. But you know, he's taking a post turnaround

550
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 1: fade away with sixteen seconds on the shot clock, and

551
00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 1: it's like, Bam, that's not a good look. Is still

552
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,440
Speaker 1: the biggest swing guy for Miami. Uh the reason they're

553
00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:07,640
Speaker 1: so high For me, I know that I just said

554
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,600
Speaker 1: this about Phoenix, like their track record in the regular season,

555
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 1: I'm not going to bank on it, but Miami has

556
00:28:12,960 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: shown us that they are a different team when the

557
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: playoffs come. And Jimmy Butler, despite him having another injury

558
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,920
Speaker 1: riddled season, another you know downtick in the regular season

559
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 1: where he's not playing up the standard, Jimmy Butler is

560
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 1: one of the greatest playoff risers of all time.

561
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 3: I believe his.

562
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: Career stats twenty six or twenty four and six, twenty

563
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,639
Speaker 1: six and four, one of those stat lines. And the

564
00:28:34,720 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 1: list of the guys to do that as efficiently as

565
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 1: Jimmy has done is like one of seven players. It's

566
00:28:40,160 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 1: like Luca kd Lebron. The list is absurd. So my

567
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: fundamental belief in Miami is that Jimmy Butler is going

568
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 1: to turn into a playoff Jimmy again, and he's gonna

569
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: do it. I just have this faith in Jimmy Butler

570
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 1: that he is gonna rise. And I know he's thirty five,

571
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,440
Speaker 1: I know he's getting up there in age, but Jimmy

572
00:28:58,480 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 1: scares me. Jimmy scare There's me the way that a

573
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: lot of other players in the playoff field don't, where

574
00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: he can exert this level of control on the game

575
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: that other players can't, where he's getting into the teeth

576
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 1: of the defense, he is setting up shots for his teammates.

577
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 1: He is just grinding out these games and controlling them

578
00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 1: on both sides of the floor, where that's what he's

579
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,600
Speaker 1: doing offensively and then defensively. This is one of the

580
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:24,160
Speaker 1: best duos point blank period on the planet on how

581
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: Jimmy can take away the opposing team's best perimeter creator.

582
00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: And then Bam on the inside is just a havocreaker.

583
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 1: So I get a really high baseline with those two guys.

584
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: I get Eric Spolster in that dark voodoo magic that

585
00:29:38,000 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 1: he puts on other NBA teams. And then the crux

586
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: for why I have this team higher than other contenders,

587
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: I just think Miami's better than they've been in years previous.

588
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 1: The Terry Rozier trade matters to me. Rosier may not

589
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: be at his absolute apex here, but to me, he's

590
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 1: a much better shot creator than they've had in years previous.

591
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 1: You're asking Kyle Lowry and Gave Vincent to play well

592
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: above their means. I think Duncan Robinson has gotten better.

593
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: You know, hopefully Toddler hero is available, and I think

594
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:08,479
Speaker 1: they're better on the wings. Like I like Jovic, I

595
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 1: really like Triple J. They're just a better team than

596
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: last year, and last year they went to the finals. Now,

597
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: as we all know, it took a bunch of outlier

598
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: stuff for Miami to handle business forty five percent in

599
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 1: the first round against Milwaukee from deep forty three percent

600
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:28,680
Speaker 1: against Boston, and you know, Caleb Martin just went dumb,

601
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 1: you know, I mean just turned into Andrew Tony for

602
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: a series. It's the track record, man, it's I believe

603
00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: in Jimmy and Bam and Spoe. I think they're a

604
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: better team than last year. I think they've got more

605
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 1: shock creation. I think their wing depth is better. I

606
00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: just think Miami's better than last year. And their defense

607
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 1: gives me such a high base line and it's honestly

608
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 1: the X factor for me. I think you're right, Jason.

609
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: I don't view Miami as a real title contender. I

610
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 1: don't think they can win the championship. But can they

611
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 1: get to the Eastern Conference Final on some BS again?

612
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 3: Probably?

613
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,959
Speaker 1: I mean they've done it before. Like That's the thing

614
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: about Miami is that if you have one flaw, if

615
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: you have that one, you know, uh chink in your armor,

616
00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:16,400
Speaker 1: Spoe is gonna find it and he is gonna pick

617
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: and he is gonna prod and he is gonna find

618
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 1: that and he is gonna pick at it the entire

619
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: series and decimate you with it. You cannot have a

620
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: flaw where Miami is going to find it and expose it,

621
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: and I do think some outlier things have to happen.

622
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,040
Speaker 1: If Jimmy has a bad series, the heater cooked, if

623
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: the Heat shoot poorly from behind the arc, the heater cooked,

624
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 1: They're probably gonna get bounced in the first round. But

625
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: Miami also has the advantage where again, if you have

626
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: that one fatal flaw, I think Miami can expose it

627
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: better than other teams. So that's where I fall down

628
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:48,040
Speaker 1: on them. I don't really view Miami as a team

629
00:31:48,080 --> 00:31:51,719
Speaker 1: that can win the finals, but I think any series

630
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 1: they can beat a team, and I do think they

631
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: can get back to the Eastern Conference Finals again this year.

632
00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 1: So look, guys, I'm just not getting burned again. Man,

633
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna the Miami Heater gonna go on a

634
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: run again this year, and I'm not gonna be the

635
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 1: jackass that left them off my top ten contenders list.

636
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: So I just I'm never gonna count Miami and Jimmy out. Man.

637
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:08,960
Speaker 1: I believe in them too.

638
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:11,560
Speaker 3: That's what the ten spot is for Logan, That's what

639
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: I'm saying.

640
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 4: You had them at six, you don't have to go

641
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:15,080
Speaker 4: that far.

642
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: So so I think we more or less agree Logan,

643
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:21,600
Speaker 2: like I if I had different contender lists, which is

644
00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: like more likely to get out of the first round,

645
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 2: Like the Heat would be pretty high on that list,

646
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:27,400
Speaker 2: because I agree with you, like they're just I have

647
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 2: such a belief in Jimmy and Bam as kind of

648
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: defensive weapons, and Eric Spolster is just schematic competence, is

649
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: like literally better than everybody in the league by a

650
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: sizable gap. Like there's so many different elements that make

651
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: them a threat. But like I would put them on

652
00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: the list of teams that will be in the playoffs

653
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 2: this year that literally cannot win the title, like they

654
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,960
Speaker 2: they do not have the horses, even if like one

655
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: or two of the higher level contenders got eliminated. I

656
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 2: just don't I just don't think they.

657
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:56,120
Speaker 3: Have the horses.

658
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 2: Like even let's say Denver and Boston both got knocked

659
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 2: out by some sort of fluke, one of these other

660
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 2: teams Dallas, the Clippers, the Suns, the Lakers, there, Thunder,

661
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,480
Speaker 2: the Bucks, one of them is gonna be a real team,

662
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 2: you know, in the postseason, and they just wouldn't be

663
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: able to get through that. And like to me, like

664
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: they got to the finals into twenty twenty and got

665
00:33:14,000 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 2: fucking smacked. Like, yeah, there was a couple games there

666
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: where Jimmy went crazy, but anytime the Lakers put their

667
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 2: foot down on their necks, they had no chance and

668
00:33:21,400 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: they got blown out in what three of the six games,

669
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: I think, like the last year in the finals, they

670
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: had a really good performance in Game two where they

671
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:33,520
Speaker 2: finally slowed down the Yokas Murray two man game hit

672
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 2: a bunch of threes, but they kind of got handled

673
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 2: and every other game, like even going back to the

674
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 2: year they lost to Boston, like they lost to Boston

675
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 2: and they did some they dragged the series to seven,

676
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: and yeah, Jimmy had a shot, but like if I

677
00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 2: remember correctly, the Celtics were up by like three possessions

678
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 2: with like a minute and a half left, and it

679
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 2: was just kind of classic Celtics that they toasted it off.

680
00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 2: And that also kind of felt like one of those

681
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 2: series where like when the Celtics were bs saying the

682
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 2: heat would get them, and then when the Celtics would engage,

683
00:34:02,720 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 2: they'd kind of control the game. So like, I never

684
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: have ever really viewed Miami as a team that was

685
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 2: actually within reach of the trophy, and like they're older

686
00:34:12,480 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 2: now and Jimmy has gone down a tiny level from

687
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 2: last year. I'm just not as high on them as

688
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,000
Speaker 2: everyone else is. So h before we move on to

689
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:23,720
Speaker 2: the next segment, I'm gonna we'll start with you, Carson.

690
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 3: What's your biggest gripe on my list?

691
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,560
Speaker 4: I don't even know if I would call it a gripe.

692
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 4: I think this is maybe the biggest difference that we have.

693
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 4: So you have the Clippers at four. I had them

694
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 4: at eight. But I have very mixed feelings about the

695
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 4: Clippers because of the ceiling that we've seen, and like,

696
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 4: for a time I thought they were second out West,

697
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 4: So why are they still that high for you?

698
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 2: So I think that they were the textbook example of

699
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 2: a team that dominated for a few months and then

700
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,759
Speaker 2: all their older players went into chill mode. Yeah, and like,

701
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:56,520
Speaker 2: and I think that's played a big role. They have

702
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 2: some weaknesses. I don't think I think they more or

703
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 2: less are as good as they're wreck shows in the

704
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: sense that, like, I don't view them as in the

705
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 2: Denver Boston tier, whereas like they literally won at a

706
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,359
Speaker 2: Denver Boston level for a couple of months, like they

707
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:12,000
Speaker 2: they were at that level. The thing for me with

708
00:35:12,040 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 2: the Clippers is their weakness to me is foot speed.

709
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 2: Like beyond Terrence Man and Russell Westbrook, most of their

710
00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:20,040
Speaker 2: guys are relatively slow. James Harden pretty slow, Kawhi Leonard

711
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,680
Speaker 2: is not a straight line speed guy. Paul George is

712
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: a finesse pull up shot maker. Zubach is not particularly slow,

713
00:35:26,160 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 2: so like I think are particularly fast. So I think

714
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:31,640
Speaker 2: that there are certain matchups where they'll struggle, like especially

715
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,360
Speaker 2: teams that run a lot like they. That's why they

716
00:35:34,400 --> 00:35:36,400
Speaker 2: can struggle so much in transition defense, That's why they

717
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: struggle with defensive rebound like loose ball situations. They can

718
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: struggle with speed. But one of their advantages is they're

719
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 2: really strong at every position and they can get into

720
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 2: this like physical bullyball type of game. And like, as

721
00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 2: long as Kawhi Leonard is healthy, he's still a top

722
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: three or four playoff player.

723
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 3: In the league.

724
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,760
Speaker 2: I like their matchup with Denver as well as having

725
00:35:57,040 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: Zubach that can kind of sort of fight Jokics for

726
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,960
Speaker 2: position a little bit better than some of the other bigs.

727
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 2: My thing with the Clippers is I more or less

728
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: look at them as closer to the good version of

729
00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: them that we've seen this year as opposed to the

730
00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:12,920
Speaker 2: bad version. I also think there's a good chance that

731
00:36:13,000 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: Tyleru just hunts on James Harden at some point along

732
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:20,000
Speaker 2: this route and goes a different route, maybe with Russell Westbrook,

733
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: and just leans into just bully ball and tries to

734
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,800
Speaker 2: cause all sorts of problems there. Paul George two is

735
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 2: playing some of the best basketball of his career right

736
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 2: now at the right time. And so if Paul George

737
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 2: keeps that level and Kawhi comes in and brings playoff Kawhi,

738
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: I think you're dealing with two top ten ish, top

739
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:40,320
Speaker 2: fifteen ish players there. So that's pretty much my point

740
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 2: of optimism. Do you have any quick counters before we

741
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:42,960
Speaker 2: move on to Logan.

742
00:36:43,680 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 4: Well, I just think it really depends on which version

743
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 4: you think you're getting, because there's no question that they

744
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 4: were a top four team for more than a third

745
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:56,480
Speaker 4: of this season. My concerns are just number one, why's

746
00:36:56,560 --> 00:36:58,640
Speaker 4: health at this stage in the season, Like he's been

747
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 4: so healthy throughout this year, and I'm confident that they're

748
00:37:01,680 --> 00:37:05,400
Speaker 4: just being conservative and careful, But like him missing six games,

749
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,920
Speaker 4: playoff Kawhi is so unbelievably good. But if you get

750
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 4: him for two games, like you did against the Suns

751
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 4: last year, it doesn't matter. He can soundly outplay Kid,

752
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 4: he soundly outplay Devin Booker. If you only get him

753
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 4: for two games, it doesn't matter.

754
00:37:19,520 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 3: And you lose.

755
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 4: My other concern is just how bad Harden has been,

756
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 4: because I think there was a stretch of this year

757
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 4: where he was playing really well and he was taking

758
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 4: advantage of I'm drawing your third best perimeter defender, and

759
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:33,840
Speaker 4: he was facilitating so well. And the facilitating hasn't really changed.

760
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 4: It's just been awful shot making and the fact that

761
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 4: he really can't pressure the rim in the same way

762
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 4: and he can't finish around the rim in the same way,

763
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 4: which is why he had so many clunkers in last

764
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 4: year's playoffs. Of course, his job was way harder, but

765
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 4: there's still a volatility there and an inconsistency that concerns me.

766
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 4: And his last fifteen he's like thirteen points per game

767
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:58,120
Speaker 4: on fifty one percent true shooting. So it's just tough

768
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 4: because the vibes are so bad and they have been

769
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 4: a disaster defensively for two plus months. I agree with you.

770
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 4: To me, that is mostly Hey, our three best players

771
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 4: are in their early in mid thirties. They're not going

772
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:12,200
Speaker 4: to lock in for this stretch of the season. But

773
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 4: I still don't love their ceiling there. I think they

774
00:38:14,840 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 4: have the tools to be a good defensive team, not

775
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 4: a great one, But I do look at the boxes

776
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 4: they check. If Harden is playing well, three high end creators,

777
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:24,799
Speaker 4: if Kawi is out there and healthy, like a top

778
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 4: five playoff performer sort of guy. They do have the

779
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:31,360
Speaker 4: physicality element, but then also this dynamic three point shooting,

780
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 4: Like that's why I really like this team for a stretch,

781
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 4: But I just worry about all their worst tendencies kind

782
00:38:36,760 --> 00:38:40,319
Speaker 4: of popping up right before the most important time of year.

783
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 2: You could not be more accurate about that last part.

784
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 2: Like every every like canned cliche Clipper hate take has

785
00:38:48,719 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 2: like mosen to the surface here down the stretch of

786
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 2: the season. My one last bit of Clipper's optimism. They've

787
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,760
Speaker 2: got a lot of playoff risers. Kawhi is a playoff

788
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 2: riser in my opinion, and then Terrence Man is a

789
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 2: playoff riser in my opinion. His specific archetype, in my opinion,

790
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 2: is one of the most valuable playoff archetypes. It's like

791
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 2: that Bruce Brown, like Alex Caruso, Terrence Man's like six

792
00:39:11,160 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 2: five sixty six guard that's really strong and stocky, that

793
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 2: just is an athletic wrecking ball on both ends of

794
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 2: the floor. And then even Russell Westbrook is one of

795
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: those guys were like in the prime of his career,

796
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 2: I feel like he was a big time playoff dropper

797
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: because the ball was in his hands so much and

798
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 2: he just was such a bad offensive player when he'd

799
00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:32,040
Speaker 2: run into like real playoff defense that could expose his limitations.

800
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,560
Speaker 2: But as in this phase of his career, I almost

801
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,720
Speaker 2: view as a playoff riser because all of a sudden,

802
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: he goes from being like, you know, this kind of

803
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 2: like helter skelter, inconsistent effort guy to like, now he's

804
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 2: one of the best athletes on the floor, and he's

805
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 2: playing his ass off and the ball's not in his

806
00:39:45,920 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 2: hands that much and he's just doing all this dirty

807
00:39:47,880 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 2: work stuff. So that's kind of another point of optimism

808
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 2: for me. But again we're also splitting hairs when we're

809
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 2: getting here.

810
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 3: You also have.

811
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:57,480
Speaker 4: James Harden, though how many playoff risers does he offset,

812
00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,760
Speaker 4: which is dropping.

813
00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:00,960
Speaker 3: We were at least too.

814
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 2: Paul George has his history as well, although I think

815
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 2: he's better now than he used to be. All right, Logan,

816
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 2: what's your biggest bone to pick with my list?

817
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 1: Oh no, we don't even have to we don't even

818
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 1: have to go in a different direction here. I want

819
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: to talk about the coach too, and we're gonna go more.

820
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,760
Speaker 1: We're gonna go more in depth later with Dallas. Jason,

821
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: I think you hit on the key point on why

822
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:23,360
Speaker 1: on what LA needs to do to move up on

823
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 1: my list, because I had them really low. I think

824
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: if he comes out with a couple of stinkers, I

825
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 1: think you have to bench James Harden, and I think

826
00:40:34,080 --> 00:40:37,040
Speaker 1: LA has the depth where they can where they have

827
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: guys that can fill in for Harden, Terrence Man, they

828
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:46,240
Speaker 1: have Russell Westbrook, they have Norman Powell. Like Harden has stunk.

829
00:40:46,520 --> 00:40:49,760
Speaker 1: Like I've read off these numbers over the past fifteen games,

830
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,960
Speaker 1: he has been comically bad. Sixteen percent from the top

831
00:40:54,000 --> 00:40:57,440
Speaker 1: of the key, thirty three percent on wing threes, thirty

832
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 1: one percent in the corner, and the most alarming numbers me,

833
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 1: he is shooting twenty seven percent on catch and shoot threes,

834
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,600
Speaker 1: twenty one percent on open threes in thirty one percent

835
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 1: on wide open threes. If we get this James Harden

836
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, he is unplayable, Like he is going

837
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 1: to well, I walked into this one. He's gonna sink

838
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 1: the Clippers boat. Fellas, he is gonna sink the Clippers boat.

839
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 1: Like that's a real difference maker to me, because, like

840
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:27,359
Speaker 1: you said, Jason, Paul George's capital B ballin right now.

841
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: This may be the best version of Paul George I've seen.

842
00:41:30,200 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 1: I just trust Kawhi Leonard to do his thing. I

843
00:41:34,480 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 1: have zero faith in James Harden, and so if he

844
00:41:36,520 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: comes out of the gate, I think in game one

845
00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 1: or two. You know what, Jason, I didn't even think

846
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: about that, Like James Harden's name brings such a you know,

847
00:41:44,760 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: and he just has such weight to it. You know,

848
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: he's a former NBA MVP. I didn't even think about

849
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:50,880
Speaker 1: the Clippers potentially benching him, considering that they trade it.

850
00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: I think that's what you gotta do. I think that

851
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 1: changes my outlook completely for LA, Like James Harden has

852
00:41:56,520 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: been that bad, that's why they're that low on my lipt,

853
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: Like he sours the Clippers for me. But if they

854
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,840
Speaker 1: turn to other guards who I trust and they have

855
00:42:05,000 --> 00:42:08,120
Speaker 1: the depth to do it, that changes the clips for me.

856
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: But that's why the Clippers, I think they were nine

857
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,000
Speaker 1: on my list all about Harden. I just have so

858
00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 1: little faith in Harden turning it around or looking like

859
00:42:16,120 --> 00:42:18,840
Speaker 1: any different version of a player. They need him to

860
00:42:18,840 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 1: get buckets, and he's just he's not gonna pull his weight.

861
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:25,439
Speaker 2: I think you have to try with Harden and then

862
00:42:25,640 --> 00:42:28,399
Speaker 2: kind of make a read game to game because when

863
00:42:28,400 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: he does have it going, he's a major plus on

864
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:33,319
Speaker 2: the offensive end of the floor. But I agree with

865
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 2: you like there, I've thought, like I've seen lineups in

866
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 2: for instance, just the the game the other night against

867
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 2: the the Suns where like you have Paul George, Terrence

868
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 2: Man and Russell Westbrook all on the floor at the

869
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 2: same time and they're switching, and like there was this

870
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 2: possession where the Sons ran like three screening actions and

871
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 2: then it ended up with the result was Terrence Man

872
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 2: on Bradley Beal at the top of the key, and

873
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:59,359
Speaker 2: you could tell Terrence Bradley Beal was like uh, and

874
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 2: he just ended up throwing a random swing pass that

875
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,280
Speaker 2: just went out of bounce. And I'm like, I'm like okay,

876
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 2: like this is this is the advantage is like they

877
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 2: can they can bring layers of physicality that a lot

878
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 2: of other teams can't can't bring. But I do think,

879
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: I do think you have to try with James Harden.

880
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: All Right, we spent way too long in that segment,

881
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:15,319
Speaker 2: so we're gonna move on

882
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: The volume.