Speaker 1: I miss a green, for example, I'm already upset. When
Speaker 1: I find my ball in the bunker, I'm really upset.
Speaker 1: And when I find my ball in a brid egg
Speaker 1: Frida Egg, the dreaded Frida Egg, Frida Egg Egg brid
Speaker 1: Egg brid Egg, Lie, I'm about ready to run off
Speaker 1: of the up course. Welcome back to another edition of
Speaker 1: the Frida Egg Podcast. Today's episode is with Joseph Lamania.
Speaker 1: Joseph is a golf statistician. He consults with PGA Tour
Speaker 1: players as well as writes sometimes on The Friday Egg
Speaker 1: as well as his newsletter Finding the Edge, which you
Speaker 1: can search on substack for it is a great bread
Speaker 1: that's free, highly recommend So we chat every once in
Speaker 1: a while pretty regularly, and one thing that is always
Speaker 1: on my mind every year as we get kicked off.
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty three is who can win a major championship?
Speaker 1: So that was the exercise. Joseph and I each wrote
Speaker 1: out who we think can win major championships, the players
Speaker 1: that have this requisite skills to win major championships, and
Speaker 1: we kind of talked about, you know, the tiers that
Speaker 1: they're in and the skill sets of players, and you
Speaker 1: know what puts them in certain places. So this was
Speaker 1: a fun chat. Didn't touch on everyone in great detail,
Speaker 1: but talked about a lot of different players. So without
Speaker 1: further ado, here is just a philamonia. Joseph, welcome back.
Speaker 1: How are you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm great, Thanks for having me Andy, I'm looking forward
Speaker 2: to this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I have to apologize. I'll probably apologize multiple times,
Speaker 1: but my mic just like crapped out on me. I
Speaker 1: don't know what happened, and so I'm using the air pods.
Speaker 1: We'll see the audio will be will be fine, it
Speaker 1: will be listenable, but not our usual standards. What have
Speaker 1: you made of Week one of the PGA to our calendar.
Speaker 2: I think it's given people a lot of reasons to
Speaker 2: be optimistic about the future. Still have my reservations about
Speaker 2: if they're going to fall through with what I think
Speaker 2: needs to be done, but I think the first week
Speaker 2: of an elevated event gave people a feel for what
Speaker 2: what it looks like when every golf when all the
Speaker 2: top golfers are teeing it up at the same time.
Speaker 2: So a lot of reasons to be optimistic about the
Speaker 2: PGA Tour.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it seems like we're going to get
Speaker 1: a better feel of who the best players are because
Speaker 1: when you kind of look at I mean, it's like,
Speaker 1: how do we classify Tony finals two wins last year
Speaker 1: when he went back to back at three M and
Speaker 1: Rock and Mortgage and there was you know, three or
Speaker 1: four top fifty players in the world at the event.
Speaker 1: You know, how do we how do we grade that
Speaker 1: out in comparison to a second place finish at a
Speaker 1: you know, WGC, Right, you know which one's better? Yep.
Speaker 2: And I'm sure you can maybe guess what I'm about
Speaker 2: to say. But the last step of this is being
Speaker 2: able to see who's doing well for the season. So
Speaker 2: having a a season long standings that actually makes sense.
Speaker 2: So let's uh, let's restrict FedEx cut points to just
Speaker 2: those events. Please.
Speaker 1: Well, that's another topic for another day and one I
Speaker 1: think we've touched on before on this podcast. What I
Speaker 1: wanted to talk to you today about and this is
Speaker 1: something that I kind of think about all the time,
Speaker 1: and it's it's kind of a derivative off of Brooks
Speaker 1: and what he said about like I'm competing against I
Speaker 1: can't remember the exact quote, eight players or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: And it's kind of also derivative off of, like if
Speaker 1: you're a competitive golfer and playing qualifiers, it's you know,
Speaker 1: half the people shouldn't be there, half the people of
Speaker 1: the people that should be there are going to play bad,
Speaker 1: and then that leaves a lot smaller pool of people
Speaker 1: you're actually playing a tournament against. So with that in mind,
Speaker 1: but the topic that I think a ton about is
Speaker 1: who can actually win a major championship. And you know,
Speaker 1: we go into a new year of majors, I think
Speaker 1: there are some players that, like, for example, that now
Speaker 1: are on my list that weren't last year, Cameron Young,
Speaker 1: you know, players that moved way up on my you know,
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick would be a player that wasn't on my list
Speaker 1: last year that's on my list and pretty high up
Speaker 1: this year. And you know, so that's the topic. I
Speaker 1: kind of put them into tiers. I think you put
Speaker 1: them into tears too, And we each created a list
Speaker 1: to go off of, and you know, I think we
Speaker 1: should start at the bottom. I kind of like created
Speaker 1: some like catch lightning in a bottle, some players that
Speaker 1: I want to see some stuff from, but from it,
Speaker 1: from my I've got four tiers. How many tiers do
Speaker 1: you have.
Speaker 2: That's funny say that I have five tiers and I'm
Speaker 2: not kidding My fifth tiers called Lightning in a Bottle.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you got to cover your basis, Like
Speaker 1: I mean the reality. I don't want to call Phil's
Speaker 1: when at a fluke, but it was.
Speaker 2: A fluke, I guess.
Speaker 1: And I think you know there's there's a bunch of
Speaker 1: things in Tier five, like you know if mine, mine
Speaker 1: didn't officially make the list, but like a name in
Speaker 1: there is Patrick Reed. I don't really think he's a
Speaker 1: major championship player that you would like consider being like
Speaker 1: a winner, you wouldn't be I think you'd be surprised
Speaker 1: if Patrick Reed wins a major championship. And the point
Speaker 1: of this list is like the names on this list
Speaker 1: and my tiers are names, I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: they want a major.
Speaker 2: Yes, So on that Patrick Reed is one of my
Speaker 2: four names and Lightning in a Bottle important note on him.
Speaker 2: He's not qualified for all the majors this year, right,
Speaker 2: So you're mainly talking about Augusta, which is irrelevant topic.
Speaker 2: As we go through a lot of these very relevant
Speaker 2: which players are actually qualified for the majors? I think
Speaker 2: before we get into the tiers. One difference between our
Speaker 2: lists will be that I think mine may be a
Speaker 2: little longer, and that's that's probably representative of how I
Speaker 2: view golf and thinking about a lot of this in
Speaker 2: ranges of outcomes, Like there's I think there are so
Speaker 2: many players could they win? Of course, I think it'd
Speaker 2: be I wouldn't want to leave out some of those
Speaker 2: names that are like fifty to one, eighty to one
Speaker 2: to win a tournament they could win. We're really deep
Speaker 2: right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be clear, my Tier five isn't in
Speaker 1: my list. It's like my it's like catch Lightning and
Speaker 1: a bottle. So we're in the same boat here. Who
Speaker 1: else do you have in this tier?
Speaker 2: Sure? Yeah, I have four names in the Lightning and
Speaker 2: a Bottle. Again, part of this is the golf courses
Speaker 2: that we're going to see, So I think throughout the
Speaker 2: pod I may reference some of the skills that'll be
Speaker 2: required at some of these courses.
Speaker 1: This year, you went way deeper than me. Yeah, more
Speaker 1: of an eye test guy.
Speaker 2: Hey, that's fair. It'll be interesting to see how the
Speaker 2: stack up.
Speaker 1: Then.
Speaker 2: So my four names and the lightning in a Bottle
Speaker 2: are Bryson, Patrick Reid, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyroll Hatton.
Speaker 1: All right, I don't have I have Bryson in my tears,
Speaker 1: and my kind of like writing is about him. Like
Speaker 1: my one line about him is are you still a golfer.
Speaker 2: Again? I'm with you, And I think a relevant, irrelevant
Speaker 2: piece of Bryson is that the way his game is
Speaker 2: currently built and how much he sprays the ball, he
Speaker 2: has almost no chance of winning at Augusta or at LACC.
Speaker 2: And I feel pretty confidently saying that.
Speaker 1: It's interesting with him because for a lot of my research,
Speaker 1: the way I kind of base this and move guys
Speaker 1: around was really off of you know, what have you
Speaker 1: done in the last five years at majors And that
Speaker 1: kind of became the thing that I built this off of.
Speaker 1: And Bryson, based off of what he's done in majors
Speaker 1: in the last five years, should be in like Tier
Speaker 1: two or Tier three, but he's in tier He's in
Speaker 1: Tier four for me because like exactly what you point,
Speaker 1: like the way his game is constituted, Now what is
Speaker 1: he You know, he went to live and it's not
Speaker 1: a deep or really that strong of a competition and
Speaker 1: was completely irrelevant like, you know, that's been the interesting thing.
Speaker 1: Like there's some players on here that we'll talk about
Speaker 1: that are to live players, but like, I'm just so
Speaker 1: shocked at how irrelevant some really big names were in
Speaker 1: a small, watered down field of golfers with no cut,
Speaker 1: Like I'm shocked at how bad they were last year.
Speaker 2: Hey, if we're gonna talk about the majors, the live
Speaker 2: impact is a relevant part of the discussion. Not only
Speaker 2: I think in terms of what it does to you
Speaker 2: when you receive a huge check to go play on
Speaker 2: that tour and maybe how that affects your motivation, not
Speaker 2: for all players but for some of them. But I
Speaker 2: think it also is an indication what those players are
Speaker 2: signaling by going. I genuinely do think that. So we'll
Speaker 2: see when we get to the majors how it impacts them.
Speaker 2: I think it will impact those players differently. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I think a lot of those players was a little
Speaker 2: bit of a sailing into the sunset to take that money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think, you know, if I was going
Speaker 1: to agree, I agree with you your players being in
Speaker 1: there with like Fleetwood, and I think Fleetwood and Hatton
Speaker 1: those are you know, players that won big events I
Speaker 1: mean Terrel Hatton cantankerous and I think he'll be happy
Speaker 1: with some of the golf courses this year. I think
Speaker 1: Terrel Hatton will have no complaints at oh Kill, you know,
Speaker 1: and from vast standpoint, it's probably good. And Tommy Fleetwood
Speaker 1: he'd be an interesting one. It'll kill too if I
Speaker 1: had to zero in on on guys that might play
Speaker 1: well there because of this narrow it's you know, it's
Speaker 1: gonna require some really good second shots. I had in
Speaker 1: my catch Lightning in a Bottle that you didn't have.
Speaker 1: I had. Davis Riley and Cam Davis. I'm like, Irra,
Speaker 1: I've been the last three weeks really since he won that.
Speaker 1: I think it was the Australian Open that he won,
Speaker 1: the Australian PGA.
Speaker 2: Sam Belt Invitational, is that what you're talking about.
Speaker 1: Sam Bellumvitational. I've just been talking myself more and more
Speaker 1: into especially with the way you played in the Presidence
Speaker 1: Cup Cam Davis breakout year, and I just am like
Speaker 1: irrationally confident in Cam Davis. I don't know why.
Speaker 2: Well, I've been like shouting from the rooftops about Cam
Speaker 2: Davis going back to last fall. To be honest, Andy,
Speaker 2: I think I think there are a lot of people
Speaker 2: with you. It's almost to me becoming like when you
Speaker 2: like a musical artist and then you start to hear
Speaker 2: them played on the radio and you get disappointed. I
Speaker 2: feel like that's kind of where I am with Cam Davis,
Speaker 2: and it's not that much of a sleeper pick. So
Speaker 2: I don't have him in my lightning in the bottle
Speaker 2: because I have him higher than.
Speaker 1: That you have him higher? What about Davis Riley?
Speaker 2: He didn't make my list, but I have a lot
Speaker 2: of respect for his game.
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, I don't want to take too much
Speaker 1: time on Tier five. You know, Tier four? Who's in
Speaker 1: your Tier four?
Speaker 2: Okay? Do you want me to give you at all,
Speaker 2: like how many I have in each tier before going
Speaker 2: into this or do you just want me to go
Speaker 2: right into the Tier four?
Speaker 1: Just go right into it. I've got I've got six guys.
Speaker 1: How many guys do you have?
Speaker 2: So I have twelve twelve names and Tier four.
Speaker 1: So I in this I just kind of like the
Speaker 1: way I would put these guys in here is like
Speaker 1: they're either guys that would have been like have fallen
Speaker 1: down but have like major pedigrees or guys that I
Speaker 1: think are really good that haven't done anything.
Speaker 2: Okay, So for me, I'm labeled it can win. And
Speaker 2: what I meant by that was wouldn't surprise me if
Speaker 2: any of these players wins a Major. But they're not
Speaker 2: to me, like a top fifteen threat that I'd expect
Speaker 2: to be in contention at multiple of them. So kind
Speaker 2: of a step up from the lightning in a bottle
Speaker 2: for sure, but not somebody that I'm expecting to be
Speaker 2: in the top ten and two or three of the majors.
Speaker 2: So I can go and rattle mof if you're ready, Yeah,
Speaker 2: rattle off. So I have Sam Burns in here.
Speaker 1: I have him too.
Speaker 2: I have Hideki, who hopefully we can talk a little
Speaker 2: bit about. I think he's one of the most in
Speaker 2: the world.
Speaker 1: I had him in here and then I looked at
Speaker 1: his numbers and I moved him up to Tier two.
Speaker 2: I actually Thinkdki is one of the most underrated players
Speaker 2: in the world.
Speaker 1: Has him with Tier four.
Speaker 2: Well, he has some injuries, so I'm not expecting him
Speaker 2: to be relevant in all four of the majors. But
Speaker 2: I don't want to go underweight on Hideki. I think
Speaker 2: he's an absolutely elite player.
Speaker 1: He has a win in four top fives in the
Speaker 1: last five years, which like that's a top ten major player.
Speaker 2: He's won eight tournaments since he's been on tour. I'm
Speaker 2: really high on Hideki. Maybe that says more about the
Speaker 2: players I have rated ahead of him.
Speaker 1: But I just don't know how how many guys you
Speaker 1: got ahead of him.
Speaker 2: Fifty guys he got ahead of him, fifteen.
Speaker 1: Fifteen, Holy cow. That's the thing is when I initially
Speaker 1: did it, I did it without stats. I just like
Speaker 1: kind of went down the owgr and I threw guys
Speaker 1: down and I had Hideki in Tier four. And one
Speaker 1: of the reasons is like I just never feel good
Speaker 1: about Hideki. One of the things about Hideki is like,
Speaker 1: if he's in contention, I don't ever think he's going
Speaker 1: to win. And I think that's because of the potter I.
Speaker 2: Can go with you to an extent, except that I
Speaker 2: actually think he's a sneaky like would not want to
Speaker 2: go head to head with Hideki. Not a lot of
Speaker 2: emotion there. And he is absolutely one of the best
Speaker 2: iron players in the world with a really underrated short game,
Speaker 2: and this year in particular, I think the may your
Speaker 2: championships will require iron tests, your irons to be tested
Speaker 2: more heavily than in years prior. So I really like
Speaker 2: Kideki's chances. Me putting him in Tier four was not
Speaker 2: a slight to his game.
Speaker 1: Feels like it.
Speaker 2: Well, we'll get to the other names. H Do you
Speaker 2: want me to go through my rests of Tier four?
Speaker 2: I can. I can just rattle them off.
Speaker 1: We got to see something from Sam Burns in a
Speaker 1: major this year, right.
Speaker 2: I agree, Yeah, that's why he's in my like could win.
Speaker 2: But if he's not relevant in any of the four majors,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be shocked. Maybe that's the best way to
Speaker 2: characterize this tier for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good that's a good thing.
Speaker 1: That's a good way to classify it.
Speaker 2: So with that in mind, Sam Burns, Hideki, Max Homa,
Speaker 2: Shane Lowry, Tom Kim, Joaque Neeman Berger, Adam Scott, Sung,
Speaker 2: JM cam Davis, Brooks, Kofka, and Aaron Wise.
Speaker 1: All right, we have a lot of the same. So
Speaker 1: my six worse Sung J Bryson, Adam Scott, Burned, Tom Kim,
Speaker 1: and Louis Us Stayson.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Louis Stayson did not make my list.
Speaker 1: Well, I just like, I've never seen somebody go from
Speaker 1: one year being so relevant to so like, you know,
Speaker 1: this falls in the same kind of bucket of Bryson right,
Speaker 1: and Bryson and Louis in twenty twenty would have been
Speaker 1: if you were drafting players at majors, would have been
Speaker 1: top ten picks both of them, and then in the
Speaker 1: last year it was just like complete irrelevant.
Speaker 2: I do think a key difference between Bryson and Louis.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at Louie's age right now, but I think
Speaker 2: the go to live plus being forty years old and
Speaker 2: being somebody who made their have their best year when
Speaker 2: they put the absolute lights out, that's a really bad combination.
Speaker 2: So I actually expect Louis to be irrelevant.
Speaker 1: There's also there's also been a long rumored apthy about
Speaker 1: Louis Sayson and professional golf, you know, and I imagine that,
Speaker 1: you know, getting a bit giant check dropped into your
Speaker 1: bank account might make that apathy grow a little bit
Speaker 1: more too, so I could easily drop Louis. Louis was
Speaker 1: like the last guy I added in here because I
Speaker 1: was like, oh, you know, he had such a good
Speaker 1: twenty twenty it would, and he's such a good major
Speaker 1: player that it seems like it would be silly to
Speaker 1: be to drop drop him down there. You know, somebody
Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about was like, does Tom Kim
Speaker 1: have enough pop for major championships?
Speaker 2: Here we go, Tom Kim. So I've been I hate
Speaker 2: being on the side of you know, I don't think
Speaker 2: this person is going to do well because I want
Speaker 2: Tom Kim to have an illustrious career. But I do
Speaker 2: think every time I think we've learned a lot about
Speaker 2: golf stats, how short term people's brains tend to be
Speaker 2: flares up again, and I think Tom Kim is like
Speaker 2: the perfect example where when this really hot streak came
Speaker 2: about and he wasn't doing it in a way that's
Speaker 2: necessarily sustainable. He's short off the tee, he's an unbelievable putter.
Speaker 2: I thought more people would kind of go the route
Speaker 2: of like this is going to come to an end
Speaker 2: at some point, and that is where I stand. So
Speaker 2: I think he'll settle into being a player who's ranked
Speaker 2: like fifteen to twenty fifth in the world. Not that
Speaker 2: optimistic about what his majors will look like this year,
Speaker 2: But I really hope he does some speed training, puts
Speaker 2: on some speed and then maybe he can ascend to
Speaker 2: like a Colin Morikawa level. I think that's the right comparison.
Speaker 1: He is a great iron player. I think that's the
Speaker 1: thing that gives me a little bit of hope he is.
Speaker 1: In terms of Tom Kim is that he's such a
Speaker 1: good iron player. That's sad about his Part three scoring
Speaker 1: average is impressive. I always like think that, like when
Speaker 1: he played Part three as well, it's usually like a
Speaker 1: sign that you're playing really good golf because you know
Speaker 1: it's a you got to kind of like you have
Speaker 1: to hit a lot of different iron shots on Part
Speaker 1: Three's so I like Tom Kim, I do. The thing
Speaker 1: I worry about is distance especially. I think he has
Speaker 1: a better chance at I think like LACC would be
Speaker 1: the place that I would most like his chances. I
Speaker 1: would really not like his chances at Okill is so narrow,
Speaker 1: it's just gonna be punishing, and I just don't think
Speaker 1: you can drive it well enough to be short, Like
Speaker 1: you're gonna miss some fairways and it's just gonna kill
Speaker 1: you if you have six iron in hand.
Speaker 2: Can I make a crazy comparison on Tom Kim. Yeah,
Speaker 2: because some people asked me, like, who's who's his statistical profile,
Speaker 2: and I don't really think there is a great one,
Speaker 2: but one one name that kind of comes to mind,
Speaker 2: and this might be disrespectful to Tom Kim, so I
Speaker 2: do think he's better than this player. But there was
Speaker 2: a stretch at the end of twenty seventeen where Brian
Speaker 2: Harmon was liked. Look, I have a lot of respect
Speaker 2: for Brian Harmon's game. He went top tens like plane.
Speaker 1: Junior golf I was in the same era. He was
Speaker 1: one of the greatest junior golfers of all time. I'm
Speaker 1: the same age as I have a lot of respect.
Speaker 1: That's disrespectful. My point is he's twenty years old.
Speaker 2: I agree. I think Tom Kim is going to be
Speaker 2: better than Brian Harmon. My point is Brian Harmon went
Speaker 2: through this red hot stretch right, and then he was
Speaker 2: completely irrelevant in the majors that year, in part because
Speaker 2: major championships are generally much more events that you got
Speaker 2: to hit the ball along off the tee and Tom Kim,
Speaker 2: if he puts on some speed, I will completely revisit
Speaker 2: this position. I think he's a better golfer than Brian Harmon,
Speaker 2: but I think there's some regression in store, especially when
Speaker 2: he gets to some courses where you really got a vomit.
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, Like is he like maybe like the
Speaker 1: extraordinarily wealthy Kevin Kissner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think he's better than that, but yeah,
Speaker 2: extremely well Brian Harmon.
Speaker 1: You know, a good question is like who's better Brian
Speaker 1: Harmer Harmon or Kevin kiss That'd be a good player
Speaker 1: at com Yeah, because like Brian Harmon has been more
Speaker 1: relevant in majors. I feel like, I mean, Kissner had
Speaker 1: Quil Hollow and the U which trooon.
Speaker 2: I think Brian Harmon finished second Aaron Hills and has
Speaker 2: not done much besides that. But he's had a phenomenal career.
Speaker 2: Brian Harmon's ranked like twenty fourth in the world right now,
Speaker 2: he's a great player.
Speaker 1: OWG Hars is kind of like not real right now,
Speaker 1: it's here we go, Now we're well. Sepstraca is twenty
Speaker 1: seventh in the world, texted Brenda last night. I'm like,
Speaker 1: did you know Sepstraca is twenty seven in the world.
Speaker 1: Guy wearing squares is twenty seven in the world. Any
Speaker 1: other notes on your guys in Tier four that you
Speaker 1: you want to get off.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm incredibly high on cam Davis, so I think
Speaker 2: we're aligned on that one. So that was one of
Speaker 2: my notes. One of my main notes was that I
Speaker 2: was going to be extremely complimentary of Hedeki Matsuyama. I
Speaker 2: think you think I'm under rating him. I have fifteen
Speaker 2: golfers ahead of him. But I did want to say
Speaker 2: I think Kadeki Matsuyama is poised for an amazing major
Speaker 2: run this year as long as he's healthy. He's battling
Speaker 2: a neck injury and that's worrisome. But other than that,
Speaker 2: I think I'm good On notes.
Speaker 1: I said one thing I had, you know, one big
Speaker 1: discrepancy is Brooks Kopka, Yeah, I had Brooks. This was
Speaker 1: another one. I had Brooks down here, and then I
Speaker 1: couldn't ignore, like, you know, just a year last year
Speaker 1: he was bad. The year before he had three top
Speaker 1: five You know.
Speaker 2: My own opinion, and I think people we may just
Speaker 2: not see eye to eye one hundred percent on this one.
Speaker 2: I don't put that much stock in how somebody's done
Speaker 2: in a major in the past. That may be relevant
Speaker 2: when we talk about somebody like Patrick Cantley, who I'm
Speaker 2: very high on, but Brooks having having major success in
Speaker 2: the past. If he's spraying his driver like he is
Speaker 2: right now, like, that's not it's not just going to
Speaker 2: magically change. So I'm a little bit lower on Brooks.
Speaker 2: The injuries are concerned. If he wins one, it wouldn't
Speaker 2: shock me. But if you told me that this upcoming
Speaker 2: year he's gonna have three top tens in a major
Speaker 2: I would be shocked.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know what you've illuminated with Bryson and Brooks
Speaker 1: is the driver getting crooked. And I think, like you,
Speaker 1: if you think about it, is like those were the
Speaker 1: two of the skills that really set them apart. Bryson
Speaker 1: in particular, set them out apart completely. Brooks was all
Speaker 1: around great during his run, but the driver was such
Speaker 1: a weapon, and it's it's kind of like, in a way,
Speaker 1: it's rare to see. I mean, I think one of
Speaker 1: the things you could point to is like Bubba Watson.
Speaker 1: You know, Bubba's great years correlite really strongly with when
Speaker 1: he drove it really well, you know, like when the
Speaker 1: driver got a little squirrely. But a lot of guys
Speaker 1: are that are great drivers, it's hard to not be
Speaker 1: a great driver once you're a great driver. Does that
Speaker 1: makes sense? Well?
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think one maybe obvious point about a
Speaker 2: driver is it's the only time every person has the
Speaker 2: same lie the ball is on a tee. And I
Speaker 2: think that that does actually provide some information about how
Speaker 2: a player is truly hitting the ball right when you
Speaker 2: that's the only time we're actually comparing apples to apples
Speaker 2: on any shot. Other point I would make though on
Speaker 2: when I'm talking about Bryson, like Bryson, how much he's
Speaker 2: sprang it, We're talking like he is literally dead last
Speaker 2: in any kind of accuracy stat I have. So when
Speaker 2: I say Brooks and Bryson are both spraying it, it's
Speaker 2: still they're on different planets. Brooks can at least keep
Speaker 2: it in bounds. Bryson right now cannot keep the golf
Speaker 2: ball like remotely remotely online.
Speaker 1: Who would have thought that chasing trying to be a
Speaker 1: long drive guy would have an adverse effect on your
Speaker 1: ability to be one of the best professional golfers in
Speaker 1: the world. I think people would be disappointed to see
Speaker 1: Sung Jay here, But I you know, what is it?
Speaker 1: I think obviously Sung Jay I was extremely high on
Speaker 1: like three years ago, and at this point I kind
Speaker 1: of feel like he's developing into just another guy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I wrote a piece for the Frida
Speaker 2: egg on Sung Jay. He doesn't have a ton of
Speaker 2: pop with his driver, hits it really straight, but the
Speaker 2: difference between hitting it dead straight and just a little
Speaker 2: bit off isn't as significant at a place like Augusta
Speaker 2: or at LACC. So I think some of these guys
Speaker 2: who hit the ball really short, not Sody's not really short,
Speaker 2: but who don't bomb the ball but hit it dead online,
Speaker 2: that's not going to be as much of an advantage
Speaker 2: at a gout Star LACC as it would be somewhere
Speaker 2: like Sedgefield. So I'd throw Billy Horshell in that category.
Speaker 2: He did not make my list. Tom Kim's in that category.
Speaker 2: Song Jy's in that category as well.
Speaker 1: M h. That's uh all right. I have some guys.
Speaker 1: I didn't have Homa, I didn't have Niemen, I didn't
Speaker 1: have Burger. I think, uh, I mean, I just I'm not.
Speaker 1: I need to see a lot more from them. They'd
Speaker 1: be in the like I need see. That's I guess
Speaker 1: that's where I differ with you. Is like, I think
Speaker 1: majors are completely different animals than tour events, and I
Speaker 1: correlate nothing, no, nothing with like what you did at
Speaker 1: the Safe Way or you know, the butterfield Bermuda with
Speaker 1: what's going to happen in a major championship. I just
Speaker 1: think it's like a completely different form of golf.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so that's where at Riviera is just another another
Speaker 2: butterfield to you.
Speaker 1: Huh, that's not what I said. But Neiman, I just
Speaker 1: I don't know. I maybe actould. I thought about putting
Speaker 1: Nemen in one of these groups, but again I I
Speaker 1: just didn't don't think he would win one of these.
Speaker 1: I would almost say that I'd expect Mito to win
Speaker 1: more than Niemen, but Meto is not going to be
Speaker 1: exempt to like anything.
Speaker 2: You getting bailed out then, because I do not agree.
Speaker 1: I think he's just better Te de Green.
Speaker 2: Than Joaquin Nemon. I'll take Juaquin Demon Te de Green
Speaker 2: over over Meeto Praira.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, my guy, my guy had a
Speaker 1: chance to win a major. So all right, Tier three.
Speaker 1: These are guys that you know, I in my my thing, like,
Speaker 1: would not it all be surprised if they won? Kind
Speaker 1: of all of them, I would like hope they would
Speaker 1: win one, and I think they can compete at just
Speaker 1: about any course, but some of them have greatly underachieved.
Speaker 1: And leading that list is Patrick Cantley. For me, I've
Speaker 1: got Victor Hovland, Cam Young, Final and Shane Lowry in
Speaker 1: this group. Who's in your Tier three?
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have some overlap here, but I have I
Speaker 2: have ten names in Tier three, that meaning I only
Speaker 2: have five that are ahead of them total. And my
Speaker 2: definition of the third tier was if they're not in
Speaker 2: contention and at least one major this year, probably two,
Speaker 2: it's a disappointing year, like they can win anywhere. Never
Speaker 2: surprised to see them in contention. That's my definition. I
Speaker 2: have can't Ley like you do. I've got Shoftley. I
Speaker 2: viewed those golfers very similarly. Xalatorus Fitzpatrick see now who
Speaker 2: I am incredibly high on. Think he could burn everything
Speaker 2: down this year, Cam Young, Morikawa, Speeth Hoveland and Dustin Johnson.
Speaker 1: Dj I. It's interesting my Tier two and Tier one
Speaker 1: are significantly bigger than your years, and I think my
Speaker 1: Tier three is really small because I ended up putting
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys up into Tier two. After I
Speaker 1: I looked a lot of past success. I think that's
Speaker 1: where the different differentiation is, right. I find it interesting
Speaker 1: that Colin Morikawa is here. That would be the number
Speaker 1: one name that pops off the page, and that is
Speaker 1: based off of his past success. Two wins, five top fives,
Speaker 1: and twelve starts in major championships, and I don't know
Speaker 1: how he doesn't get bumped up to at least Tier
Speaker 1: one or Tier two based off of that.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, to an extent, I think it depends
Speaker 2: on how many people you have in those tiers. When
Speaker 2: I view the landscape of golf right now, I do
Speaker 2: think there are five golfers who are above any of
Speaker 2: the rest, and I do not think Calmar Kaba is
Speaker 2: currently in that category, but he's really good. He and
Speaker 2: Fi now are really close to jumping up there, as
Speaker 2: Alexander and Patrick Cantlay. But I think there are five
Speaker 2: golfers that I would take. I would give you more
Speaker 2: Kawa versus any one of them head to head for
Speaker 2: the Majors this year.
Speaker 1: So it's interesting I move Markawa up from Tier two
Speaker 1: to Tier one when I looked at the stats and
Speaker 1: my five were the same five as your top two
Speaker 1: and the Tier one, and I do agree with that
Speaker 1: premise to a certain extent. I just think that right now,
Speaker 1: the cold takes on Marikawa are a bit of an overreaction.
Speaker 1: And you know, I think like at Kapellua, he showed
Speaker 1: like through sixty three holes. How like, I think he's
Speaker 1: about as good of a golfer as there is when
Speaker 1: he's on, and I think that that would put him
Speaker 1: into that same bucket as all the other guys. So
Speaker 1: Finaw is the guy that you're you're high on and
Speaker 1: if you you know, like, what, what's the statistical case
Speaker 1: for Tony Finow?
Speaker 2: Yeah, the statistical case for Tony Finow who has been
Speaker 2: fine in majors. He has been since last May one
Speaker 2: of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world.
Speaker 2: He became an extremely accurate driver going back to right
Speaker 2: about last mid May, really long hits, good irons, has
Speaker 2: a great short game. He's been putting well. He has
Speaker 2: been one of the best golfers in the world over
Speaker 2: the past six to eight months. He's won a couple
Speaker 2: of times. I don't I don't really see any holes
Speaker 2: in his game. He's basically become like a rom off
Speaker 2: the tee, a little shorter, but pretty much a rom
Speaker 2: off the tee, and if he I think the only
Speaker 2: reason he's shorter is because he restrains himself a little bit.
Speaker 2: I think Tony fen Now, there are a million reasons
Speaker 2: to be bullish. Wouldn't be surprised if you want a
Speaker 2: major this year at all. I'm so high on him.
Speaker 1: The thing that always goes overlooked, And I think this
Speaker 1: happens with a lot of like great players, you know,
Speaker 1: if you think down the line of like he's not
Speaker 1: a great player anymore, but Sergio Garcia, Hideki Mastayama would
Speaker 1: fall into this bucket, Brooks Kopka would fall in this bucket,
Speaker 1: and Tony Finow is like terrific short games, like those
Speaker 1: guys around the Greens are are like world class, but
Speaker 1: they it never gets talked about because of other ancillary skills.
Speaker 1: And with Fenw it's always the thing that people are
Speaker 1: always going to talk about is the driver. But he
Speaker 1: drives it well. He's a really good iron player and
Speaker 1: he's got great short game, and I think, you know,
Speaker 1: like when you put that together, he kind of falls
Speaker 1: into that bucket of like if the putter's okay, he's
Speaker 1: going to be in in the top five, like that's
Speaker 1: Almos It's almost like his week is determined by the
Speaker 1: relative nature of his putter, and it just has to
Speaker 1: be a little bit better than average for him to
Speaker 1: pile up wins.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think they're too many golfers, even if
Speaker 2: it's not the strongest field. Who can blow a field
Speaker 2: out right now, Tony Fenales on that list.
Speaker 1: Who else would be on that list?
Speaker 2: Rory Rahm, justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler.
Speaker 1: I think Mori Kawa has to be. He was blowing
Speaker 1: out of the field of the century.
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's He's right there. He's in the back of
Speaker 2: my mind. To be clear, I came away with a
Speaker 2: much more positive with a positive impression from Marikawa after
Speaker 2: Kapa Loua. I am not going down though, like he
Speaker 2: choked it away. I'm worried about him. I have a
Speaker 2: very high opinion of Mari Kaala. I think part of
Speaker 2: where this comes from is he's giving up a lot
Speaker 2: of distance off the tea to these guys. I understand
Speaker 2: that he's an e lee iron player, but when you
Speaker 2: are playing from behind names like Rory John Rahm and
Speaker 2: the putter, it can be pretty inconsistent. Man, iron game's
Speaker 2: got to be really on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it can be like That's the thing about
Speaker 1: it is like it can be so good that it,
Speaker 1: you know, it renders everything kind of irrelevant because of
Speaker 1: how good the iron play can be. Now for a
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Speaker 1: egg to check it out. Now back to Joseph Lamanna,
Speaker 1: it's you know, the tears are it makes an interesting thing.
Speaker 1: And I guess like I had separated can't Lay and
Speaker 1: Xander based off of just purely what they've done in majors.
Speaker 1: You know, one of the things I think was Xander
Speaker 1: I wonder about was like, was his first you know,
Speaker 1: four years of majors more of an aberration and last year,
Speaker 1: you know, it was the worst major year he's ever had,
Speaker 1: Like where's the balance? Was that just a you know
Speaker 1: that that was just bound to happen was he going
Speaker 1: to have a mediocre major year or and then the
Speaker 1: other thing with can't le It's like, you know, is
Speaker 1: this just a statistical anomaly that he's been completely irrelevant
Speaker 1: given that, Like he's been a top ten player in
Speaker 1: the world now for four years in a row running, but.
Speaker 2: We're not talking about that many events. I will die
Speaker 2: on the hill that Patrick Cantlay is fine in majors
Speaker 2: going forward, And if somebody wants to take the other
Speaker 2: side of that, have at it. What is the thesis
Speaker 2: for why Patrick Cantlay doesn't play well in majors? Is
Speaker 2: it that he shows up and he gets so nervous
Speaker 2: he can't play. Like, if somebody can't give me a
Speaker 2: reason for why he's not going to play well in majors,
Speaker 2: I'll take give me the can't lay side. He's fine.
Speaker 1: Well. I was with a major champion once and I
Speaker 1: asked him about, you know, this was a player that
Speaker 1: no longer is on these lists, and he said, some
Speaker 1: guys just don't have it, some guys just can't get
Speaker 1: it done when it really matters. And I think if
Speaker 1: you look at like Davis Love obviously got it done,
Speaker 1: but I think everybody would say that Davis Love's career
Speaker 1: in majors was like a disappoint which is crazy because
Speaker 1: he won twice, right, but like one of the things,
Speaker 1: he won a ton the week after, and for some
Speaker 1: people it's like that moment is too big and something
Speaker 1: about it psychs them out. And I get it, like that,
Speaker 1: there is like a certain gravity of it, right, It's
Speaker 1: really hard, and I think that's where like you've seen
Speaker 1: Rory go through these mental gymnastics, right, the juggling, the
Speaker 1: reading a lot of books, the different things, like all
Speaker 1: the different ways that he's tried to prep for AUGUSTA.
Speaker 1: It's really hard when you have to prep for something
Speaker 1: and you and some people prep differently and it works
Speaker 1: for him, but others, like when you put so much
Speaker 1: weight on it, they need to treat it just like
Speaker 1: another week. And I sometimes wonder if that is something
Speaker 1: that like with can't lay like it doesn't make any sense.
Speaker 1: I'm totally with you, and like it's frustrating because he
Speaker 1: came out of the gates. He had that t three
Speaker 1: early in his career in majors, and you're like, Okay,
Speaker 1: this guy is going to be like a major champion,
Speaker 1: like specialist like you look at his game and you
Speaker 1: don't know why it would ever not work at a major,
Speaker 1: Like I tend to believe, and I think this is
Speaker 1: a pretty common thread through all of the players that
Speaker 1: you know, the top five players really that we've highlighted
Speaker 1: which we haven't gotten to, but are Rory John Rahm,
Speaker 1: Justin Thomas Scheffler, camp Smith. Like those guys, if you
Speaker 1: look at their games, it's very hard to find like
Speaker 1: a discernible weakness. Obviously Putter can be a little bit
Speaker 1: of an issue for JT and Ram, but outside of that,
Speaker 1: like camp Smith can be a little squirrely with the driver.
Speaker 1: For the most part, those guys don't have weaknesses. And
Speaker 1: you think about Cantlay, it's like that's who Patrick Cantlay is.
Speaker 1: He is like just a very very well rounded player.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I will not push back on there being something
Speaker 2: different about major championships. I'm not trying to equate BMW
Speaker 2: championships with majors. Believe me, I do not feel that way.
Speaker 2: But I think the assumption then is that Patrick Canlay
Speaker 2: is psyching himself out, and so that that's where I
Speaker 2: would say, are you willing to say Patrick Cantlay is
Speaker 2: psyching himself out he doesn't have it, he doesn't have
Speaker 2: what it mentally takes. Because to me, he does have it,
Speaker 2: and he talks like a person that has it, and
Speaker 2: I have a lot of confidence when he tees it up.
Speaker 2: So I think sometimes somebody's only played fifteen majors, like
Speaker 2: why that's not that's not one hundred, that's not two hundred,
Speaker 2: Like give him a chance.
Speaker 1: I think this is like something that has really changed
Speaker 1: about professional golf. Also is the instant gratification, the instant success,
Speaker 1: and you know, like the idea that these guys now,
Speaker 1: you know, it used to be that like you're fully
Speaker 1: formed golfer when you're thirty five, and now like at
Speaker 1: this point now in golf, if you're thirty five year old,
Speaker 1: you know. And I think that's something to keep in mind,
Speaker 1: is that I think we're going to see late bloomers still,
Speaker 1: Like there is going to be major champions that pop
Speaker 1: up that weren't great at age twenty five or great
Speaker 1: major players at twenty five and figure it out later.
Speaker 1: Like somebody that jumps to mind for me is he's
Speaker 1: thirty three, Tom Hogy. I think it's a really good golfer.
Speaker 1: And I didn't want to, you know, Like, I just think,
Speaker 1: like you know, if Tom Hogy's in the hunt at
Speaker 1: a major, I'm not surprised at all because he's he's
Speaker 1: a very good iron player and stuff. But he's thirty three,
Speaker 1: and nobody is like excited and hyped on him the
Speaker 1: way they are with Tom Kim right because he's thirty three.
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm gonna I'm not letting you off the hook here,
Speaker 2: all right. If what's if what's so big to you
Speaker 2: is is success in major champion and you're this high
Speaker 2: on Tom Hogy, help me get there to where you
Speaker 2: will not be surprised to see him on the first
Speaker 2: page of a leader board come Sunday this year.
Speaker 1: He's a late bloomer. He doesn't fight in any majors,
Speaker 1: all right, so he's just getting his feet wet. It's
Speaker 1: like the tour, his tour career. I think, like some
Speaker 1: guys like and I think this is what's gonna be
Speaker 1: this guy. I don't think like you know, I think
Speaker 1: there are gonna be guys that have Like if you
Speaker 1: look at the careers of guys, right, there's like a
Speaker 1: lot of buckets of there's you have, like your all
Speaker 1: time greats, and that's like Rory is in there where
Speaker 1: they span decades, and I think John Rahm is probably
Speaker 1: a guy that's heading there. JT is heading there. I
Speaker 1: don't know about Scheffler, Like I don't think we've seen
Speaker 1: enough of the body of work from Scheffler. But you
Speaker 1: have these guys that span decades. Then you have guys
Speaker 1: that are like they had a nice ten year run.
Speaker 1: Then you have guys that have like really nice five
Speaker 1: year runs, and then you have guys like Nick Watney
Speaker 1: where for three years they were a top ten player
Speaker 1: in the world, right, And I think like from that standpoint,
Speaker 1: you're going to have late bloomers that pop in in
Speaker 1: their their thirties, like early thirties, that have really good
Speaker 1: three year runs. And that's my case for a guy
Speaker 1: like Tom Hoky. So I would believe that I'm making
Speaker 1: this case.
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the other side of this, and
Speaker 2: I'm going to say high conviction. I think something that's
Speaker 2: happening across sports, and I would love to see a
Speaker 2: robust study on this unpack this further. I think you
Speaker 2: are seeing people in their late thirties in particular across
Speaker 2: sports with the speed revolution in every sport, their careers ending,
Speaker 2: and you've got Tom Brady. I don't Aaron Rodgers right,
Speaker 2: not great years.
Speaker 1: Lebron is obviously the outliar.
Speaker 2: And I think in golf something that's happened is that
Speaker 2: it's becoming.
Speaker 1: Hold on Tom Brady. Tom Brady's forty six. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: understand it's forty six playing football. All I'm saying.
Speaker 2: My only point is in golf there has been a
Speaker 2: speed revolution. I think it's gotten a little bit easier
Speaker 2: to optimize some of the other parts of your game
Speaker 2: with things like track man, and you have to have
Speaker 2: everything to win a major. Now you have to have
Speaker 2: the speed, you've got to be an elite iron player,
Speaker 2: and you've got a putt well that week. I don't
Speaker 2: think you're going to see too many players who find
Speaker 2: it between the age of thirty two and thirty eight
Speaker 2: and then have success in majors. It's not impossible, but
Speaker 2: I would give another example like Jason Day. I don't
Speaker 2: think Jason Day is going to rEFInd things and then
Speaker 2: win a major again in the next couple of years.
Speaker 2: I really think it's it's much harder to be somebody
Speaker 2: who's on in your mid thirties.
Speaker 1: I would you know, I guess one of the things
Speaker 1: I would think I would think about with that is
Speaker 1: Pebble Beach where it's shorter. And you know, you like,
Speaker 1: different different major setups might yield different things, right, So
Speaker 1: like this year at Okhill, I don't and and I
Speaker 1: mean l A is gonna play super short. That's the
Speaker 1: one thing I will say is that golf course is
Speaker 1: not going to play long.
Speaker 2: There's some yeah, there's there's some long holes out there,
Speaker 2: but I'm with you. Conditions are going to be a
Speaker 2: really big part of how l a CC plays.
Speaker 1: Whether or not rain. I think, yeah, it's gonna be firm.
Speaker 1: There's it's not going to rain. It doesn't rain in June, right,
Speaker 1: I think the big one of the big things with
Speaker 1: l A is going is there going to be are
Speaker 1: you gonna get that marine layer? You know, are you
Speaker 1: gonna get that June gloom that keeps moisture in the
Speaker 1: golf course in the mornings in particular, And that'll be
Speaker 1: a big, big factor. But I think that golf course
Speaker 1: plays pretty short, to be completely honest. I mean it,
Speaker 1: the ball moves out there, right, and there's some big
Speaker 1: slopes and uh, and I don't like that one. I
Speaker 1: think that's going to be such a different US Open.
Speaker 1: I think it might play a little bit more Augustina
Speaker 1: nationally for sure than US Opening.
Speaker 2: Where for me this is I'm viewing the US Open
Speaker 2: and the Masters very similarly this year. To me, that's
Speaker 2: a Cam Smith golf course. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Cam Smith is such a man. He he's such a
Speaker 1: fun player. I'm curious this is they'll be seeing him
Speaker 1: play the majors after a seasonal Live and like I
Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be one of the big
Speaker 1: storylines I think going into every major because you know, like,
Speaker 1: how do you I mean, if he doesn't dominate on LIV,
Speaker 1: how do you feel about him going into these these events? Right?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's going to be very difficult to
Speaker 2: know with all of these guys. And if there are
Speaker 2: three players, I think there are three live players that
Speaker 2: I don't really worry about this affecting their mentality. Stustin Johnson,
Speaker 2: Cam Smith, and Patrick Reid. I don't think they play
Speaker 2: any differently whether they're on Live or on the PGA Tour.
Speaker 2: If they're keeping their games sharp everyone else like a
Speaker 2: Taylor Dutch, I'd be shocked if he keeps his game
Speaker 2: up to snuff.
Speaker 1: So DJ's in your third bucket and he's in my second.
Speaker 1: But my kind of notes on him are are we
Speaker 1: in the decline of his career at this point? We're
Speaker 1: definitely on the backside of DJ. I thought I thought
Speaker 1: we were there three years ago that he won the Masters,
Speaker 1: and I kind of felt like an idiot and had
Speaker 1: a great year. But you started to see is it
Speaker 1: just that he's losing his like kind of unicorn status
Speaker 1: of a driver of golf ball.
Speaker 2: I think it's a fascinating question. This is something I
Speaker 2: wanted to bring up, Like, I think one of the
Speaker 2: most interesting questions this year is how motivated is Dustin
Speaker 2: Johnson to golf? I actually think it's a really interesting question.
Speaker 2: And if you if you were, like, win the Masters
Speaker 2: this year and be like, hell, yeah, I care, like
Speaker 2: I've been grinding. I think that would be such a
Speaker 2: cool insight into who DJ is because I actually think
Speaker 2: he does care more than he maybe lets on. I
Speaker 2: don't think he's done, but he was spraying the ball
Speaker 2: last year. I could see a lot of different outcomes
Speaker 2: for DJ this year. He easily easily could be in
Speaker 2: contention come Sunday at either LACC or a gust that
Speaker 2: wouldn't shock me. The other two would surprise me a
Speaker 2: little bit more. But one of those first two I
Speaker 2: think he could be there.
Speaker 1: The what's what's this correlation with going to live and
Speaker 1: then also not being able to control the driver?
Speaker 2: That's they they were having that issue before they went
Speaker 2: to live. This is I hope we don't have some
Speaker 2: kind of revisionist history where people forget that almost all
Speaker 2: of the players who went to live were seeing downturns
Speaker 2: in their career before they signed.
Speaker 1: So with Fitzi, he's a guy. He's a perfect example
Speaker 1: of a guy that you want Sung Dam and Tom
Speaker 1: Kim to become game speed and you know, retain what
Speaker 1: made you really good golfer before. And I guess, like,
Speaker 1: how close is FITZI to moving up into the upper
Speaker 1: ash line of golf.
Speaker 2: He's minor improvement with his irons away from moving up
Speaker 2: into that upper a schelane of golf. I have said
Speaker 2: that I think at the end of this year he
Speaker 2: will be in the top five of the official World
Speaker 2: Golf rankings. Yet I don't have him in my top
Speaker 2: five year. The reason for that is that major championships
Speaker 2: are going to be more demanding on your irons than
Speaker 2: a lot of other courses he's going to see throughout
Speaker 2: the year. So I like Matt Fitzpatrick on a PGA
Speaker 2: Tour schedule more than I like him at LACC.
Speaker 1: Still has a lot of PGA Tour event.
Speaker 2: Give he's he hasn't been an absolutely elite golfer for
Speaker 2: very long. Give him a year.
Speaker 1: Xalataurus obviously three runner ups in nine starts in majors
Speaker 1: is you know, I guess like he's one that I
Speaker 1: would look at in terms of jumping up to this.
Speaker 1: This is I think this is the quinn essential major player. Though,
Speaker 1: like where you say you don't put much stock in
Speaker 1: major championships, I think like when a golf course is
Speaker 1: more difficult, he is a player that becomes, you know,
Speaker 1: when it becomes more of a test. Compared to like
Speaker 1: TPC Craig ranch zal Taurus is going to fare better.
Speaker 2: To be clear, I put stock in major championships skill sets.
Speaker 2: It's I just don't put as much stock in the
Speaker 2: numbers that are next to their Wikipedia page for results
Speaker 2: in major championships. I think will zala Trus is an
Speaker 2: excellent player, he will play well in majors. His back
Speaker 2: injury legitimately scares me like that. I know he said
Speaker 2: he felt okay and he's playing when he played at Cappalua,
Speaker 2: and I think he's playing at American Express, like clearly
Speaker 2: things are feeling better. But that is frightening to me
Speaker 2: that any swing he could keel over and beholding his back.
Speaker 2: That really frightens me with zal Taurus.
Speaker 1: See, I'd put him at this point and it's really
Speaker 1: early and your tears and we didn't even get through
Speaker 1: this exercise, which is you know, the fall of the host.
Speaker 1: But you had if not in contention major failure. You
Speaker 1: had Rory and Rahm if not in contention disappointed, cam Smith,
Speaker 1: Scottie Scheffler and JT. And I think, like I think
Speaker 1: I put zeal Torus in that if not in contention
Speaker 1: disappointed and I point to the Open Championship at Saint Andrews.
Speaker 1: It was like he wasn't in contention, And I found
Speaker 1: myself very disappointed that he wasn't in contention and like surprised,
Speaker 1: I hear you.
Speaker 2: I mean, look, I could put everybody in that tier
Speaker 2: and then nobody would feel bad. But I do think
Speaker 2: when I view the professional landscape, the I think Rory
Speaker 2: and John Rahm have are clearly above everyone else. They
Speaker 2: have ascended, and I think Cam Smith, Scottie Scheffler, and JT,
Speaker 2: especially given their iron play, are on that second tier
Speaker 2: and those five guys belong ahead of everybody else.
Speaker 1: JT question two top fives and five years of major championships,
Speaker 1: one of them being a win a back door win
Speaker 1: at Southern Health. Do you is there something about majors
Speaker 1: that gives it like, I mean, perfect example of a
Speaker 1: guy that's always like he should play great at Augusta,
Speaker 1: but never does. And I've always been a little bit
Speaker 1: confounded by I was confounded until I think last year.
Speaker 1: It was a big year for JT to get one,
Speaker 1: but at the same time he wasn't really around the
Speaker 1: other ones, you know.
Speaker 2: I feel obligated that to say that. I think there's
Speaker 2: a huge storyline that never gets talked about at Augusta
Speaker 2: with JT, and it is how much he has struggled
Speaker 2: with the drive on thirteen, which is a huge shot.
Speaker 2: He's gone in the creek left, he goes way out right.
Speaker 1: Try to hit that snapper.
Speaker 2: He can't hit the T shot he's given. It's his
Speaker 2: worst hole on the course by far strokes gained. I
Speaker 2: think he's losing like a quarter of a stroke to
Speaker 2: the field on that hole.
Speaker 1: Well, that was the one year that he was the
Speaker 1: one year he looked like he was going to win.
Speaker 1: On Saturday, he made a triple there.
Speaker 2: I'm telling you it's a it's a really it gives
Speaker 2: him fits. And I think he finished like tied for
Speaker 2: eighth in this past Masters. So I'm telling you you're
Speaker 2: talking about if he can figure this hole out, like
Speaker 2: a two to three shot gap between you know, losing
Speaker 2: strokes to the field versus picking up a couple birdies
Speaker 2: or an eagle. Like this is a huge story that
Speaker 2: doesn't really get talked about because Justin Thomas is very
Speaker 2: well equipped for Augusta and this one hole gives him fits.
Speaker 2: He's got to figure it out, maybe hit threewood off
Speaker 2: the tee. But now now we have a little bit
Speaker 2: of a different hole that it's been lengthened, so that
Speaker 2: might work to his benefit if you don't have to
Speaker 2: hook it quite as much.
Speaker 1: And you know, like people talk about how it's going
Speaker 1: to make it harder for guys, but that is it
Speaker 1: is changing the dynastic, like you are going to be
Speaker 1: able to hit it longer now without turning it over.
Speaker 1: I still think you're gonna have to turn it over
Speaker 1: a little. But it's funny because like that, I mean, people,
Speaker 1: here's the thing. People fell in love with that snap
Speaker 1: hook that he hits. But the ball should have gone
Speaker 1: in the water at Sawgrass, the one on eighteen. It
Speaker 1: was a lucky bounce that he got that kept it
Speaker 1: out of the water. Like, that's not a good shot.
Speaker 2: To hit a snaphook with a driver is not something
Speaker 2: you want to be doing in controlled snapler.
Speaker 1: I think it's controlled snaphook control Like this what shot?
Speaker 1: It's like, that's a controlled snaphook.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure how controlled it is. I think it's
Speaker 2: really hard to control a snaphook with a driver.
Speaker 1: Are we overrating Scheffler.
Speaker 2: I don't think we're overrating Scotti Scheffler. His iron play
Speaker 2: is unbelievable. I was too slow to see Scheffler coming,
Speaker 2: but I do believe he belongs in that top five.
Speaker 2: And if you wanted to take more Kawa Verus Scheffler
Speaker 2: for this year's Majors, I would take it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he had such a good year. But
Speaker 1: then I go back and like, the one thing that
Speaker 1: worries me about putting him so high, and I have
Speaker 1: him in my tier one, So the thing that I
Speaker 1: was like, he hasn't done it for very long. But
Speaker 1: then you go back and it's like, well, like he
Speaker 1: almost won the first major he played in. It's a
Speaker 1: pro you know, and he played well. He if you
Speaker 1: go back to his college career, he was such a
Speaker 1: great player and big events, like he didn't show up
Speaker 1: all the time, but then when it was a big
Speaker 1: time event, he was always there. And it's it's he's
Speaker 1: another guy that like when you look at his game,
Speaker 1: like what's his weakness? What would you say, is like
Speaker 1: the one thing that he doesn't do well? It's like,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think he does everything really really well.
Speaker 2: His driver can get away from him a little bit
Speaker 2: at times. But the one note I have in here
Speaker 2: about Scotti Scheffler is I genuinely believe he has the
Speaker 2: best mental game in golf. I think he has the
Speaker 2: best attitude, the best mental game in golf. I genuinely
Speaker 2: believe that. And I also think having Ted Scott on
Speaker 2: his bag has been a significant benefit to him. So
Speaker 2: I'm very optimistic about what Scotti Scheffer's majors will look
Speaker 2: like this year.
Speaker 1: Would you who would you say is closest to ascending you?
Speaker 1: You have a top bucket of Rory and Rahm, and
Speaker 1: then your your next the next buckets obviously camp Smith,
Speaker 1: Scheffler and j T. Who's the closest to going up
Speaker 1: to tier one?
Speaker 2: JT?
Speaker 1: Interesting, I think I might go, I might lean Scheffler.
Speaker 2: I think Justin Thomas what he can do with his
Speaker 2: irons nobody else can really do. Mar Cow is the
Speaker 2: only name. Tom mor cow is the only other player
Speaker 2: that can hit irons like Justin Thomas. And I think
Speaker 2: at LACC and at Augusta in particular, that's that is
Speaker 2: an iron test hardcore. JT's also amazing at chipping, so
Speaker 2: is Scheffler. They're close, But when JT's on, I don't
Speaker 2: think there's anybody that can really get quite that hot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, And this is the thing with
Speaker 1: the with the year. What makes me so excited, and
Speaker 1: you know, kind of the why I wanted to put
Speaker 1: this together is like we've never seen these guys play
Speaker 1: twenty times in the same place or sixteen or whatever
Speaker 1: it ends up shaking out to be. And this is
Speaker 1: gonna be the first time where we see that, and
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna paint like it's gonna start to
Speaker 1: paint a much clearer picture, you know. I guess like
Speaker 1: we have the one person we haven't talked about that
Speaker 1: probably we obligated are obligated to talk about, is Jordan Spieth.
Speaker 1: He's in your third tier.
Speaker 2: I thought you were gonna say Tiger Woods.
Speaker 1: No, No, I mean, come on, I don't. I love
Speaker 1: I've one of the biggest fans of Tiger Woods. But
Speaker 1: like we could, he cannot be seriously talked about at
Speaker 1: this point, like he might win. I've said, this is
Speaker 1: my Stanta Tigers. Nothing he does will ever surprise me
Speaker 1: again ever. But that's all that needs to be said.
Speaker 1: I like, I think he struggles to walk two days
Speaker 1: in a row, and I think, you know, until we
Speaker 1: get to the point where he's physically able to really
Speaker 1: like walk seventy two holes, it's kind of a moot
Speaker 1: point to talk to him. But Jordan Speed, obviously everybody's darling.
Speaker 1: I see him. I hope he pulls off this sony
Speaker 1: win and sets everybody into a speedmaster's hysteria, but like,
Speaker 1: it's been a really interesting career because he's you know,
Speaker 1: I think he's getting back to the guy he was,
Speaker 1: you know, when he was in twenty fourteen or twenty fifteen,
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but he had has like a dip. Like
Speaker 1: it's it's been a very interesting career, and I think
Speaker 1: the last five years aren't really the same as the
Speaker 1: first three or four years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree he's always been odd and that he's
Speaker 2: like one of the best fifteen to twenty five foot
Speaker 2: putters like ever, and then when he's hitting a three footer,
Speaker 2: I never think it's gonna go in, so that there
Speaker 2: is a weird obviously everyone knows like watching Jordan Speath
Speaker 2: is quite the experience. But I am really high on
Speaker 2: Jordan Speith. Hits it longer off the tea. Now, he's
Speaker 2: got a little firepower. Played unbelievably through the early summer
Speaker 2: last year. He's playing well again at Sony. Like I'm
Speaker 2: I'm buying Jordan Speith. But again, there's so many golfers.
Speaker 2: I think we have this youth explosion over the past
Speaker 2: couple of years. This year, I don't think there's kind
Speaker 2: of there's not really a newcomer this year. It's just
Speaker 2: a bunch of guys who are twenty five to thirty
Speaker 2: three years old in the primes of their careers battling
Speaker 2: it out.
Speaker 1: So that's what I'm I think there will be a
Speaker 1: newcomer who we just don't know who it is.
Speaker 2: Yeah, maybe somebody's gonna pop up, somebody's.
Speaker 1: Gonna get high, But I think, yeah, I you know,
Speaker 1: the speed thing, the short putting. I honestly, I think
Speaker 1: there's a scar tissue, you know, like you go. That's
Speaker 1: the thing with golf is like it could go a
Speaker 1: lot of ways, but like when you go as low
Speaker 1: as he went, there's something like he's come back from
Speaker 1: it obviously really well. And I think there was a
Speaker 1: period of time when you were kind of like whoa,
Speaker 1: and it was a testament like he completely lost it,
Speaker 1: but he still was like a top one hundred player
Speaker 1: like that. That's crazy. You know, when you don't know
Speaker 1: which way the ball's going off the tee and you're
Speaker 1: still a top one hundred, it shows how good you
Speaker 1: are at everything else. But the short putting, it's just weird, man.
Speaker 1: And then like if he gets in the hunt sometimes
Speaker 1: I like some of his like failed to close out
Speaker 1: tournaments have been alarming to me, you know, like I'll
Speaker 1: never forget the Sunday where he just got smoked by
Speaker 1: Jason Kokrack and it's like whoa, Like, this's not you know,
Speaker 1: it's just I think he's further away from that top
Speaker 1: five then, And I think this is partly part of
Speaker 1: the what you hit on the youth youth explosion, Like
Speaker 1: he was almost like the first part. Obviously Rory, I
Speaker 1: think would be like the start of the second youth
Speaker 1: way like Tiger had the youth was the youth invasion,
Speaker 1: but Rory kind of started it. But Speef was parts
Speaker 1: like the cog like he was like, oh wow, golf's
Speaker 1: changing because here comes this and now a lot of
Speaker 1: guys are are better than him. I think he's really good,
Speaker 1: but I think that he's at like a very he's
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the full suite of skills that some
Speaker 1: of these other guys have.
Speaker 2: I'm with you, he's not nearly as good of a
Speaker 2: driver of the golf ball as any of the other
Speaker 2: names that we're talking about. He's gone longer. He's fine,
Speaker 2: but he's not around. He's not a rary right, not
Speaker 2: a Cam Young doesn't leave a lot of doesn't leave
Speaker 2: a lot of margin for air, and if his irons
Speaker 2: aren't quite up to snuff and there's the risk of
Speaker 2: missing a four and a half foot or like, it
Speaker 2: gets a little scary. But I'm very high on Jordan speed.
Speaker 2: I think l acc and the Gusta set up very
Speaker 2: well for him. Would not expect to see him in
Speaker 2: contention at Okill and Liverpool.
Speaker 1: Maybe who's the best driver of the golf ball? Young
Speaker 1: driver of the golf ball?
Speaker 2: Am I am? I allowed to say rom or Cam
Speaker 2: Young because it's one of the two. Are you saying?
Speaker 1: But I think it's Cam Young, right.
Speaker 2: It's one of the two. I mean they are very similar.
Speaker 2: I wouldn't trying to choose between rom And and cam
Speaker 2: Young's is pretty tough. They're both. They look very similar
Speaker 2: off the team.
Speaker 1: I mean Cam Young to me has like a gear.
Speaker 1: He's got like a I mean, it's scary how far
Speaker 1: he hits it.
Speaker 2: Same with Rom.
Speaker 1: I feel like Rom hits a lot of that squeeze
Speaker 1: cut though, just to keep it in play. I think
Speaker 1: Ron has that extra gear. I feel like Cam Young
Speaker 1: kind of goes at it all the time a little
Speaker 1: bit more.
Speaker 2: Maybe I don't know Rom's been training to those guys
Speaker 2: are neck and neck. I wouldn't if you in a
Speaker 2: driving contest. That's close to a coin flip for me.
Speaker 1: Mm hmm. All right, well, predictions, you want to put
Speaker 1: your predictions out there? If if you had to pick
Speaker 1: the four majors.
Speaker 2: Oh, I mean the I think the right answer, which
Speaker 2: is the lame answer, is like if I'm not saying that,
Speaker 2: I think Rory is the favorite at each of these,
Speaker 2: like he he is, So I would say a prediction
Speaker 2: is that Rory wins a major this year. I do
Speaker 2: think Rory wins a major this year. But I think
Speaker 2: if I was to start just picking, like, oh, and
Speaker 2: this guy at Oak Hill and this guy Augusta and
Speaker 2: this guy at LACC, Like, why are you picking them
Speaker 2: over Rory? Like that doesn't You're just trying to get
Speaker 2: cute at that point.
Speaker 1: So Rory for the sweep.
Speaker 2: No, see, I don't know obviously, I don't think he's
Speaker 2: gonna win all four, but I think Rory will win
Speaker 2: a major. And if you said you wanted to take
Speaker 2: a player right now against Rory any major, I'd take
Speaker 2: the other side. Happily give me Rory and against somebody
Speaker 2: else had to head it all.
Speaker 1: Four interesting the only guy, Yeah, I think I think
Speaker 1: there's a real argument that Rom is the best the
Speaker 1: best player too. I think that's the only other guy
Speaker 1: that you could defensively say and I'll take him against
Speaker 1: it because if you if you zoom out a little
Speaker 1: bit further, if you say two years is two and
Speaker 1: a half years instead of you know, two years, Rom
Speaker 1: probably has a better profile.
Speaker 2: Right yeah, quickly, huge story on Rom that I wanted
Speaker 2: to bring up. His wedge play really bad last year,
Speaker 2: wasn't really discussed. His wedge play was awful last year.
Speaker 2: I think that's a huge story to watch this year
Speaker 2: as Rory and Rom kind of duke out that number
Speaker 2: one spot. Rom's amazing with a long iron, not good
Speaker 2: with a wedge. Looked like he turned it around a
Speaker 2: little bit of kapalua. But that's something to watch. So predictions,
Speaker 2: I'll say, I.
Speaker 1: Think that could be a part of like you're talking
Speaker 1: about him speed training. Do you think that could be
Speaker 1: a a back like it because he was a really
Speaker 1: good wedge player.
Speaker 2: I think he started speed training. I don't want to
Speaker 2: say when he when he started speed trainings. I don't
Speaker 2: really know. I've just been seeing the videos from this offseason,
Speaker 2: but his bad wedge play goes all the way back
Speaker 2: to the beginning of last year. So no, I don't
Speaker 2: know that that wasn't necessarily related. Interesting all right, well
Speaker 2: he is always camp Smith at LACC. How about that.
Speaker 1: Camp Smith at LACC. I'm trying to think, if you
Speaker 1: can miss it left there a lot, then it's a
Speaker 1: good spot for him, and I think you can a
Speaker 1: lot of plays.
Speaker 2: Actually you can. You can miss it left there a
Speaker 2: lot thirteen fourteen.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the same thing with the old course, right,
Speaker 1: you could just hit it one way all day. I
Speaker 1: mean that he's that was he's about the most fun
Speaker 1: to watch. I think, you know he's got he's got
Speaker 1: a little bit of the Jordan Spiths relatability that in
Speaker 1: his game where he hit some squirrely shots. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not just like a a auto like you know,
Speaker 1: rom Like, there's no relatability with John Rohm the way
Speaker 1: he plays with like a normal person, right, but cam
Speaker 1: Smith has like a little bit of relatability because that
Speaker 1: driver can get squirrely and you can be like, oh,
Speaker 1: I could hit that shot, you know, and.
Speaker 2: The play is James Han But that's just me. Let's
Speaker 2: talk about their golf game.
Speaker 1: James. Hopefully nobody takes away the takes away the Twitter
Speaker 1: password from him.
Speaker 2: That's any any predictions from you, I mean.
Speaker 1: I'm the host, I don't have to. I think I
Speaker 1: was really out on cantle a last year, and I've
Speaker 1: worked my way back in on him. I think it
Speaker 1: is a statistical anomaly, and so I think he's going
Speaker 1: I'll say, Patrick Cantley is gonna win a major.
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? You're coming all
Speaker 2: the way back to that. After just talking about how
Speaker 2: he doesn't have it, I.
Speaker 1: Just I myself back into him this offseason. I felt
Speaker 1: I thought about the year and I thought, you know what,
Speaker 1: I think I was too hard on Patrick Cantley, and
Speaker 1: I think that this, like I believe that it's just
Speaker 1: I do believe it's a statistical anomaly that he's not playing.
Speaker 1: He hasn't played well at majors. I like camp Smith
Speaker 1: at Augusta.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean yeah, I.
Speaker 1: Feel like he kind of, like Sneaky, has the case
Speaker 1: of like if anybody has the case of like I
Speaker 1: should have won last year's Masters, as camp Smith like
Speaker 1: he had like some disastrous holes and he still was.
Speaker 1: I mean when he was on the twelfth tee, Scotty
Speaker 1: got really lucky with his chip shot on three. That
Speaker 1: was really lucky. If that ball doesn't hit the hit
Speaker 1: the cup, he's probably making a bogie there and the
Speaker 1: wheels are off, like and we've seen that the wheels
Speaker 1: go off moment, and I felt like we were staring
Speaker 1: that right in the face when he chipped in. Also
Speaker 1: like then we're on twelve t and you're thinking camp
Speaker 1: Smith might win this or like it, and then he
Speaker 1: hit like a bad shot, you know, and he went
Speaker 1: for it. And so to me, like I look at
Speaker 1: camp Smith's major year last year and it was like
Speaker 1: the Masters, you could easily create a path that he
Speaker 1: wins that. And then the PGA he's one of the
Speaker 1: five to ten best putters in the world and he
Speaker 1: finished last and putting that week the first. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: I think, like, you know, there's a world in the
Speaker 1: easy world where things go a little bit differently, where
Speaker 1: camp Smith wins two majors last year easy, And so
Speaker 1: with that in mind, I kind of think like he's
Speaker 1: been really close to Augusta a few times. This is
Speaker 1: the year he gets it done.
Speaker 2: I think the way I tend to think about Augusta
Speaker 2: is like on each te box, what happens if he
Speaker 2: hits it well, and what happens if it gets a
Speaker 2: little bit offline into the trees. And cam Smith's kind
Speaker 2: of fine in either situation. He's one of the best
Speaker 2: from the fairway, and he's one of the best at
Speaker 2: getting himself out of trouble from the trees. That's kind
Speaker 2: of a big part of Augusta. And that's why I'm
Speaker 2: really never worried about cam Smith on any of the
Speaker 2: holes out there. But there are other guys where if
Speaker 2: they're hitting it a little bit crooked, they're not the
Speaker 2: scrambler that cam Smith is, So he's almost can't have
Speaker 2: a terrible day out there.
Speaker 1: Well, it's the same thing with Speed, right, Why does
Speaker 1: Speed play so well in Augusta. It's like, oh, like
Speaker 1: if he gets squirrely, it's not a big deal, you know,
Speaker 1: because he's like it's so hard. If Speth or cam
Speaker 1: Smith can hit the ball, can get out of the
Speaker 1: trees and hit it just short of the green, you
Speaker 1: know out there they're gonna get up and down almost
Speaker 1: every time because it's short grass, like those guys like,
Speaker 1: I think that's the beauty of short grass, right, is
Speaker 1: like the very best guys from short grass. And you'll
Speaker 1: probably disagree with me here, but the very best guys
Speaker 1: from short grass, like they're hard shots, but those guys
Speaker 1: are so good they're gonna get up and down the
Speaker 1: vast majority of the time. And then you get guys
Speaker 1: like Lee Westwood who are putting, and it's like then
Speaker 1: it becomes like more of a fifty to fifty proposition, right,
Speaker 1: I think it. That's the thing with Augusta is that
Speaker 1: making par from the trees for somebody that's really good
Speaker 1: at scrambling is not very hard. But for and it's
Speaker 1: the underrated skill out there, right, is the ability to
Speaker 1: just string together pars and avoid because you can make
Speaker 1: so many birdies out there, but bogies are waiting and
Speaker 1: those scramblers, like the bogies just aren't is readily available
Speaker 1: if you're really good around the greens.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. And when I think about cam Smith Augusta,
Speaker 2: my mind goes back to shots like out of the
Speaker 2: trees on the left on hold nine that he jammed
Speaker 2: to like three, and it's like there's just other guys
Speaker 2: can't do that, They really can't. So Cam Smith, Yeah,
Speaker 2: if he's wearing a green jacket in a few months,
Speaker 2: I don't think we're going to be surprised, be quite
Speaker 2: the noisy. Uh maybe that'd be.
Speaker 1: A disaster, disaster for the PTA tour. If Cam Smith
Speaker 1: is the is the is holding the green jacket and
Speaker 1: the cleric drug at the same time. And you know
Speaker 1: the players Champion that didn't get to defend you know.
Speaker 2: Well, talent is talent.
Speaker 1: It's it's crazy. It should be a really funny year.
Speaker 1: I I I'm excited for more of these designated events too.
Speaker 1: That's the one of the things I'm didn't know that
Speaker 1: I was going to be this excited about.
Speaker 2: Yep, A lot of reasons to be excited as a
Speaker 2: golf fan. So it should be an interesting major season.
Speaker 1: All Right, we'll talk again soon. We'll see you, see
Speaker 1: you next week actually, but thanks for coming on, Joseph.
Speaker 1: People can find you on Twitter. They can also read
Speaker 1: your writing at the edge dot or on substack. Finding
Speaker 1: that Edge on substack and that's free to subscribe you
Speaker 1: You put up a put out a newsletter every once
Speaker 1: in a while with lots of good stuff and thanks
Speaker 1: for coming on.
Speaker 2: Thanks so much for having me Andy, I really appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to another episode of the Friday Podcast.
Speaker 1: Today's podcast was edited and produced by Matt Russ's Thank you, Matt.
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