WEBVTT - Ukraine Rebuilding Even as Russian Aggression Continues

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. You know. As the Russian

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<v Speaker 1>War in Ukraine continues on now in its seventh week,

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<v Speaker 1>I couldn't help but being drawn back to the early

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<v Speaker 1>March cover story of Bloomberg Business Week, one in which

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg's Mark Champion wrote about Vladimir Putin and how after

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<v Speaker 1>a quick victory did not seem likely, that his endgame

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<v Speaker 1>seemed to be reducing Ukraine to rubble, and as we

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<v Speaker 1>see the destruction that grows every day, that endgames seems inevitable. Meantime,

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine President Voladimir Zelensky on CBS is sixty minutes last

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<v Speaker 1>night about what NATO nations have done so far for

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<v Speaker 1>his country. I just want to say that for your

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<v Speaker 1>support and support first of all for people, because all

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<v Speaker 1>the people, all the nations, first of all, they push

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<v Speaker 1>their leaders. It's not about it's not only about your country,

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<v Speaker 1>it's about our country, it's about all the world. That

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<v Speaker 1>was President of Ukraine Voladimir Zelinsky on sixty minutes yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get now to a crucial voice. You've heard her

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<v Speaker 1>on our air waves before. We're talking about Natalie Darresco.

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<v Speaker 1>She's former Ukraine finance minister. She served in that position

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<v Speaker 1>from She was born here in the US, but she

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<v Speaker 1>spent her after her twenties. After she was educated here,

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<v Speaker 1>she moved back to Ukraine and lived there. She's now

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<v Speaker 1>executive director of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for

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<v Speaker 1>Puerto Rico. She joins us now on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>San Juan, Puerto Rico. Natalie, good to have you back

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<v Speaker 1>with us. How are you, Thank you, TIV, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for having me. Hey. Well, you know it's been a

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks since we've gotten to speak with you, and

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<v Speaker 1>I just want to start with getting an understanding of

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<v Speaker 1>what you're hearing for your friends who are on the

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<v Speaker 1>ground in Ukraine. You spent so many years of your

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<v Speaker 1>life there and you, you know, presumably continue to talk

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<v Speaker 1>to folks there. What are you hearing? Absolutely, I have

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<v Speaker 1>in touch all the time. I guess it's really important

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<v Speaker 1>to note that with all of the news of the

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<v Speaker 1>horrendous atrocities um and the impending what appears to be

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<v Speaker 1>massive invasion in the East, Ukrainians are actually, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>facing this with immense courage, and that courage is leading

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<v Speaker 1>them to start rebuilding. So even in the towns of

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<v Speaker 1>Ping and Buscha that have been destroyed recently, the work

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<v Speaker 1>has begun already to remove debris, to build back the

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<v Speaker 1>bridge that have been blown up, to restore, rebuild electricity,

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<v Speaker 1>heat and water. The government is focused on getting planting started.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the spring planting season for agriculture. As you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine is one of the largest agricultural exporters in the world,

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<v Speaker 1>and businesses are moving facilities to western Ukraine where the

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<v Speaker 1>war has not had as much of an impact, and

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<v Speaker 1>restarting manufacturing to the extent that they can. And so

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<v Speaker 1>what you're seeing is this kind of response to the

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<v Speaker 1>horrors and the tragedies with even greater courage and intent

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<v Speaker 1>to we build, we knew and normalize, and so I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's it's it's an amazing combination of human dignity encourage.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like hard to even get your head around that, right.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of in awe right that they're planning for

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<v Speaker 1>the future and you know, moving forward, um, with so

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<v Speaker 1>many questions to yet to be answered. Natalie, I know

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<v Speaker 1>your focus is, you know, economic and financial situations, but

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<v Speaker 1>obviously all of that weaves into politics, military, economy, it's

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<v Speaker 1>all interwoven. Having said that, how do you see this

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<v Speaker 1>situation overall? Is the West at war with Russia already? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the important thing, Carol, is that Putin is

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<v Speaker 1>that war with the West already, and he always has been,

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<v Speaker 1>and he's been very here about it. And so whether

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<v Speaker 1>or not any of our Western allies believe that they

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<v Speaker 1>are or not, the fact is that Putin believes he is,

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<v Speaker 1>and so we are all in this together. This is

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<v Speaker 1>about his attempt is not only to destroy Ukraine, which

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<v Speaker 1>is clear a genocide of the Ukrainian people, which he's

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<v Speaker 1>had published in articles, but it's also about destroying the

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<v Speaker 1>liberal world order. The democratic world that we all take

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<v Speaker 1>for granted every day, and that enables us to live

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<v Speaker 1>in in peace and freedom. And so we are fighting

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<v Speaker 1>an autocrat who wishes to destroy our system. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>why that's why you know, in the end, it really

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<v Speaker 1>is up to all of the allies, up to the

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<v Speaker 1>democratic nations of the world, to support Ukraine in this battle,

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<v Speaker 1>because Ukraine has to prevail. If Ukraine does not prevail,

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<v Speaker 1>we as a democratic world do not prevail. Well, that's

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<v Speaker 1>what I wanted to ask you. And I was listening

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<v Speaker 1>to the Ukrainian president on sixty minutes last night, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just is there he can't give in on anything,

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<v Speaker 1>Like I'm thinking if there are talks or peace talks,

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<v Speaker 1>they've already given in right Ukraine. You were there with

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<v Speaker 1>Crimea and the Carimean peninsula. So at this point, can

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<v Speaker 1>the Ukrainian presidents say, yep, I'm willing to give up

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<v Speaker 1>this or if he does, is that a loss for

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<v Speaker 1>the West overall? And and then it just means we

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<v Speaker 1>will probably see President Putin come back in another aggressive

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<v Speaker 1>mood sometime and move and sometime in the future. I

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<v Speaker 1>think that that's exactly what's happened we all kind of said,

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<v Speaker 1>just sit back. After he invaded an illegally annexed Crimea,

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<v Speaker 1>then he invaded Dunbas. We held them to the line

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<v Speaker 1>for eight years, but the war continued and it was

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<v Speaker 1>not enough. Putin's aims are not territorial. Russia's an enormous country.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't require any more territory for its population or

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<v Speaker 1>for its economy. This is not about territory. And um,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the course thing for Western countries and for

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<v Speaker 1>all of us is to enable Ukraine to prevail. And

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<v Speaker 1>and that you know, that doesn't mean that they shouldn't

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<v Speaker 1>be different out of talks, but it means that we

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<v Speaker 1>should focus on giving Ukraine the weapons they need to

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<v Speaker 1>defeat and to prevail in this war, the sanctions to

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<v Speaker 1>reduce uh the Russian ability to finance the war, getting

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<v Speaker 1>our businesses to boycott the Russian economy and not finance

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<v Speaker 1>this war against Ukraine. And then with that leverage, if

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<v Speaker 1>in with that leverage, when they're prevailing, talks can take

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<v Speaker 1>place and something can be achieved in those diplomatic talks.

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<v Speaker 1>So be it piece is always welcome, but the first

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<v Speaker 1>thing to focus on is not the talks and the

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<v Speaker 1>outcome of the talks. The first thing needs to focus

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<v Speaker 1>on getting Ukraine strong enough to prevail with weapons, sanctions

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<v Speaker 1>and boycott and then uh and then hoping that that

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<v Speaker 1>enables talks to be successful. Natalie Darresco stand stand by,

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<v Speaker 1>because we're gonna come back with you. We're gonna do

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<v Speaker 1>some news and then we're gonna come back with the

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<v Speaker 1>former Ukraine finance minister. She served in that role from sixteen.

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<v Speaker 1>She's executive director of the Financial Oversight and Management Board

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<v Speaker 1>for Puerto Rico. Joining us from San Juan in Puerto Rico.

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<v Speaker 1>We're talking Natalie Darresco. Yeah, curious to as the Austrian

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<v Speaker 1>chancellor meeting with President Putin, who are the global leaders

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<v Speaker 1>that he might listen to in this situation. This is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>want to get back to our guest with us is

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<v Speaker 1>Natalie Jarresco, former Ukraine Minister of Finance. That was from

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<v Speaker 1>twenties sixteen. As we remind you, during that initial Russian

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<v Speaker 1>invasion and occupation of Ukraine. She's also the executive director

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<v Speaker 1>of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico.

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<v Speaker 1>And you might recall we mention this too, that she

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<v Speaker 1>was the subject of a Bloomberg Business Week story back

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<v Speaker 1>in It was entitled the American Woman who stands between

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<v Speaker 1>Putin and Ukraine. She's still with us on the phone

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<v Speaker 1>from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Hey, Natalie, does anybody anymore

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<v Speaker 1>stand between the world and Vladimir Putin? Well, Carol, what's

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<v Speaker 1>a good question, Um, does anyone standing between? I think

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<v Speaker 1>that are those who are trying not to choose, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think that it's it's it's quite sad if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at a country like India, one of the largest

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<v Speaker 1>greatest democracies in the world. Um, they're abstaining on critical

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<v Speaker 1>UN votes, and they are continuing to trade with Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>They're continuing to buy Russian oil, They're continuing to avoid

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<v Speaker 1>applying any sanctions. I think closer to home, to be

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<v Speaker 1>frank with you, I'm disappointed that so many companies, so

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<v Speaker 1>many American companies, companies like City and Mars and Coke

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<v Speaker 1>Industries refused to boycott the Russian market, continue to make

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<v Speaker 1>announcements that they feel they have a need to continue

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<v Speaker 1>serving the Russian people in the Russian market at a

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<v Speaker 1>time when their tax revenues are going directly into financing

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<v Speaker 1>this war. And I think that it's it's it's harmful,

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<v Speaker 1>it's pitiful, especially when US taxpayers are being asked to

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<v Speaker 1>contribute to fighting the war and defending Natalie. Do you

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<v Speaker 1>think the sanctions work? And I asked that looking at

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<v Speaker 1>the data we got a couple of weeks ago that

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<v Speaker 1>show how high Putin's approval rating is now more in

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<v Speaker 1>a recent poll, do the sanctions seemed to be working?

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<v Speaker 1>I think the sanctions are working, but we don't have

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<v Speaker 1>enough of them. So the sanctions worked to crimp the

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<v Speaker 1>financial system. Uh, the problem is that we haven't done enough,

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<v Speaker 1>and so we've We've sanctioned a handful of banks. We've

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<v Speaker 1>removed a handful of the banks off the swift system,

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<v Speaker 1>but not all three hundred. I'm of the belief that

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<v Speaker 1>every day counts and we need to do much broader,

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<v Speaker 1>much deeper sanctions. I think it's important the export controls

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<v Speaker 1>are working. You're seeing that in the defense industry in Russia.

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<v Speaker 1>Some um, some items they're not being able to be

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<v Speaker 1>manufactured anymore because they don't have the imported parts. So

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<v Speaker 1>over time some of the sanctions will work. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the challenge is that it's not working fast enough, and

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<v Speaker 1>for for Ukrainians every day thousands of lives and immense destruction.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's much more we can do in sanctions, not

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<v Speaker 1>just in the banking sector, but clearly in the energy sector,

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<v Speaker 1>and that has a lot to do with europe Um

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<v Speaker 1>purchasing oil and gas. US europe purchasing oil and gas

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<v Speaker 1>is the single greatest financing tool of Russia and until

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<v Speaker 1>that ceases, that that that money continues to be used

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<v Speaker 1>to keep the Russian economy alive. I mentioned that the

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<v Speaker 1>Austria Chancellor is meeting with Vladimir Putin. Who if any

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<v Speaker 1>one or of of global leaders that are out there

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<v Speaker 1>does have sway with Vladimir Putin, you know, I haven't.

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<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen anyone to have that kind of sway.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm always hopeful every conversation, uh, you know, has a

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<v Speaker 1>brain of hope. I think President Makhan has faced uh

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<v Speaker 1>you know, had multiple conversations, a long conversations and got nowhere,

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<v Speaker 1>not even in the most basic attempts to establish a

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<v Speaker 1>humanitarian corridor out of Maryupo, a city in the southeast

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine that has been absolutely destroyed and where people

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<v Speaker 1>are unable to leave safely. UM. So I don't believe

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<v Speaker 1>that that the Austrian Chancellor will have a greater effect.

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<v Speaker 1>It doesn't mean you shouldn't try. Everyone's try, But I

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<v Speaker 1>don't believe that those conversations are timely right now, in

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<v Speaker 1>that Putin is not feeling the pressure yet of the sanctions.

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<v Speaker 1>He's not yet feeling the pressure that he needs to

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<v Speaker 1>feel in order to take this conversation seriously, What about

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<v Speaker 1>um President of China Modi of India. Could they have

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<v Speaker 1>some sway? Should they have some sway? I would guess

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<v Speaker 1>the president she had, given the close friendship that he

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<v Speaker 1>and Putin apparently have, UH, potentially could have that type

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<v Speaker 1>of effect. And I would hope that the Chinese over

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<v Speaker 1>time start to see that although they've been more or

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<v Speaker 1>less supportive of of Putin in this war, that this

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<v Speaker 1>is not going to help the Chinese, and that now

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<v Speaker 1>the global economy and the unity that the Western democracies

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<v Speaker 1>have shown is something that I don't think they all expected. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>And I don't believe that this continued war is good

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<v Speaker 1>for the global economy. It's certainly not good for food prices.

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<v Speaker 1>Uh see, it's certainly not good for steel prices, It's

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<v Speaker 1>not good for a variety of things that both the

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<v Speaker 1>Chinese and the Indians US should be looking forward and

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<v Speaker 1>understanding that the cost, the oupen global cost of this

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<v Speaker 1>war is going to be great for them, not only

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<v Speaker 1>for Ukraine. Natalie, we only have thirty seconds left. But

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<v Speaker 1>about six weeks ago you joined us, and you were

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<v Speaker 1>optimistic when a lot of people were pessimistic about the

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<v Speaker 1>Ukrainians defending Kiev. What's the conversation that we're having six

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<v Speaker 1>weeks from now. Uh, definitely optimistic that Ukraine encourage fighting

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:31.920
<v Speaker 1>and Ukrainian forces will prevail. The unfortunate thing is is

0:12:31.920 --> 0:12:33.560
<v Speaker 1>what the cost will be of that prevailing. But the

0:12:33.600 --> 0:12:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian people are fighting for their very existence and there

0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:41.839
<v Speaker 1>is no other route. Thank you so much, Natalie for

0:12:41.840 --> 0:12:44.840
<v Speaker 1>for joining us. And uh, certainly what you are seeing

0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.120
<v Speaker 1>on the ground, what you're hearing. I think it's remarkable

0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:49.560
<v Speaker 1>that they're planting. We've talked about, you know, the importance

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 1>to the grain market right and feeding the world, and

0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:54.320
<v Speaker 1>that's the important part of their economy and interesting to

0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 1>see to him them kind of moving forward there on that.

0:12:56.360 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, I encourage everyone to go back and read

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.720
<v Speaker 1>that cover story that Juan Natalie Duresco just learning so

0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.439
<v Speaker 1>much about what she's done in Ukraine and her background,

0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.320
<v Speaker 1>really gets a good understanding of what her role was

0:13:07.360 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 1>today too. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

0:13:12.280 --> 0:13:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. I

0:13:16.480 --> 0:13:18.800
<v Speaker 1>want to get to today's Bloomberg Big Take. It's a

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>story about how, after billions of dollars being spent in

0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.640
<v Speaker 1>a decade of time, going by the Amazon drone delivery

0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:27.120
<v Speaker 1>programmed him still not off the ground. Yeah. I couldn't

0:13:27.160 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 1>put this one down. It's by Spencer Sober, and it

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:32.000
<v Speaker 1>is I read it last night. It came out yesterday

0:13:32.000 --> 0:13:33.760
<v Speaker 1>at five pm, and I read it. You know, I

0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 1>saved it for last night and I stayed up until

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.520
<v Speaker 1>the end. Uh and Matt Day wrote this story. Spencer

0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.560
<v Speaker 1>Sober is technology and e commerce reporter at a Bloomberg News.

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 1>He joins us now on the phone from Seattle. Spencer,

0:13:43.840 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 1>I actually remember it like it was yesterday. It was

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:48.719
<v Speaker 1>night before Cyber Monday. It was the Sunday after Thanksgiving,

0:13:50.400 --> 0:13:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Jeff Bezos goes on sixty minutes he does an interview

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 1>with Charlie Rose and he says, within the next few years,

0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.479
<v Speaker 1>we are going to be able to get drone packages

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.560
<v Speaker 1>deliver via drones. Yet, Spencer, here we are and it

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:12.120
<v Speaker 1>hasn't happened yet. Yeah, you know what happened? All right? Well? Yeah,

0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they they spent a lot of money, um,

0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 1>and a big part of the problem is that they

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 1>they tried to think of the ideal use case, which

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:23.440
<v Speaker 1>would be a drone that can go about fifteen miles

0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:26.600
<v Speaker 1>around trip and carry a payload of about five pounds.

0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.040
<v Speaker 1>So right now they've got a drone design that's about

0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>eighty five pounds, which is huge compared to some of

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:37.000
<v Speaker 1>the rival things out there that are significantly smaller. But

0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:41.040
<v Speaker 1>they needed that to pack a sufficient battery and sufficient

0:14:41.480 --> 0:14:43.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, with sufficient power to fly that distance and

0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:47.520
<v Speaker 1>carry that payload. And what's happened is that they had

0:14:47.600 --> 0:14:50.200
<v Speaker 1>to go with this tricky design that kind of fluctuates

0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:52.600
<v Speaker 1>between going up and down like a helicopter and going

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.120
<v Speaker 1>forward like an airplane, and they just had a really

0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:58.160
<v Speaker 1>difficult time nailing that design. And one of the things

0:14:58.160 --> 0:15:00.920
<v Speaker 1>we highlighted in the story was a really bad brush

0:15:01.000 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>fire last summer that happened after one of these things malfunctioned.

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:07.720
<v Speaker 1>And then they're supposed to be different safety mechanisms that

0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:11.120
<v Speaker 1>kick in after a motor failure. But this thing has

0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:15.360
<v Speaker 1>six propellers on it, and one of the motors conked

0:15:15.400 --> 0:15:18.960
<v Speaker 1>out and it couldn't recuperate it recuperate from that, and it,

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, carremed a hundred and sixty feet down from

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.400
<v Speaker 1>the sky and crashed into the ground and ignited this

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.480
<v Speaker 1>big brush fire. And this is at a time when

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Amazon is trying to prove to the Federal Aviation Administration

0:15:30.360 --> 0:15:33.400
<v Speaker 1>that these things are safe. So, um, yeah, there's still

0:15:33.720 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 1>still a long way off, a long way off. And

0:15:35.840 --> 0:15:38.400
<v Speaker 1>we know there's a lot of competition because Amazon is

0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.160
<v Speaker 1>not the only one looking to put drones into the sky.

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:42.480
<v Speaker 1>Let's bring in Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Webber here

0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.960
<v Speaker 1>in our interactive broker studio. Uh, what's up to out

0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 1>for you here? Well, you know, I just think it's

0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 1>it is one of those great corporate dramas that you

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:53.840
<v Speaker 1>have to be curious about because it's Amazon, and like

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:58.120
<v Speaker 1>anything happening inside the Amazon Uh, you know, executive suites

0:15:58.120 --> 0:16:04.120
<v Speaker 1>is interesting. But that competition that Carol mentioned Spencer, who

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:07.360
<v Speaker 1>who are the other competitors who are attempting to crack

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:10.960
<v Speaker 1>this or who already have even Well, you have a

0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>ton of startups. Uh, you also have Google, you know

0:16:15.280 --> 0:16:19.240
<v Speaker 1>Google's wing Um, you have ups Walmart. There's a lot

0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:23.240
<v Speaker 1>of deepocketive rivals poking at this and and in fairness

0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>to Amazon, we have to look at the capabilities. So

0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.520
<v Speaker 1>some of the startups and things are looking at maybe

0:16:28.560 --> 0:16:32.400
<v Speaker 1>like a a function where it's on a hospital campus

0:16:32.480 --> 0:16:35.760
<v Speaker 1>or a corporate campus or a college campus, you know,

0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:39.680
<v Speaker 1>where there might be less risk of going over um,

0:16:39.720 --> 0:16:43.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, uninformed participants where which would happen in more

0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.120
<v Speaker 1>of a public setting. But there's just a lot of

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.000
<v Speaker 1>people looking at at the potential use cases. And what

0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:51.480
<v Speaker 1>Amazon is doing is being the most ambitious and saying

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.000
<v Speaker 1>we want to be able to deliver as many people

0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.800
<v Speaker 1>using this technology as possible and deliver the widest variety

0:16:57.840 --> 0:17:01.920
<v Speaker 1>of products as possible. So how does the f feel

0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>about all this? Well, they haven't commented specifically on what's

0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:10.800
<v Speaker 1>happened with Amazon. They certainly had some reports and what

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.480
<v Speaker 1>was telling was the in the brushwire crash. They did

0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.320
<v Speaker 1>question the airworthiness of this, of this vehicle that Amazon's

0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:23.000
<v Speaker 1>put together, this pound um drone with with six propellers,

0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:27.560
<v Speaker 1>because because so many things failed. You know, you generally

0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:31.840
<v Speaker 1>planes are designed to be able to still maneuver after

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:35.919
<v Speaker 1>something fails and still safely land after something fails, and

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 1>this thing was just a complete breakdown of all of

0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:41.000
<v Speaker 1>those all of those systems, which was alarming to the

0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:43.400
<v Speaker 1>f a A. And so that is a big setback

0:17:43.440 --> 0:17:46.680
<v Speaker 1>because basically the the f a A, they they're learning

0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:48.879
<v Speaker 1>from industry right now. They're looking at all the different

0:17:48.880 --> 0:17:53.560
<v Speaker 1>folks that are conducting tests, and they're assessing the safetiness

0:17:53.680 --> 0:17:57.480
<v Speaker 1>of all of the different vehicles and and as they're assured,

0:17:57.520 --> 0:18:00.800
<v Speaker 1>then they'll gradually let these things be tested in more

0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.399
<v Speaker 1>populous areas. But as it stands, Amazon still relegated to

0:18:04.640 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 1>UH to the boonies. You know, it's doing tests out

0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:10.600
<v Speaker 1>in eastern Oregon where you know, which is largely agricultural

0:18:10.640 --> 0:18:13.000
<v Speaker 1>areas surrounding this this airport in a in a very

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:17.399
<v Speaker 1>sterile environment. What did you learn about Amazon's commitment to

0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:21.440
<v Speaker 1>this moving forward? Because the business opportunity spencer, as you write,

0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:24.719
<v Speaker 1>is absolutely huge. What it could do is essentially eliminate

0:18:24.760 --> 0:18:31.240
<v Speaker 1>the need for paying delivery drivers and get consumers getting

0:18:31.280 --> 0:18:34.480
<v Speaker 1>their their packages within thirty minutes or less in much

0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:38.720
<v Speaker 1>of the country. Yeah, I mean that's the big commitment

0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:42.320
<v Speaker 1>is uh. Bezos in particular has always been after this

0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:46.040
<v Speaker 1>notion of making Amazon is as convenient as a quick

0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:49.560
<v Speaker 1>trip to the store. And depending on where you live it, uh,

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:52.600
<v Speaker 1>it still doesn't meet that. You know, I I live

0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:55.880
<v Speaker 1>in the suburbs of Seattle, and I've got a Target,

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.359
<v Speaker 1>and I've actually got two Targets and two Walmarts in

0:18:58.400 --> 0:19:01.880
<v Speaker 1>a costco, all within a fifteen and drive, you know, so,

0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:05.080
<v Speaker 1>so ordering on Amazon is still taking longer to get

0:19:05.080 --> 0:19:07.040
<v Speaker 1>that item if I can find it at a store nearby.

0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:10.159
<v Speaker 1>This is the answer to that. And uh, you know,

0:19:10.160 --> 0:19:12.399
<v Speaker 1>if you can get it down to down to thirty minutes.

0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:16.439
<v Speaker 1>But again it's a question of, um, how broadly it

0:19:16.480 --> 0:19:19.720
<v Speaker 1>can be deploted, deployed, because the only thing that justifies

0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 1>this investment, it's not a worthwhile investment if you can

0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:25.040
<v Speaker 1>deliver something to a farmer here and there. You know,

0:19:25.080 --> 0:19:28.000
<v Speaker 1>you need to be able to deploy this in densely

0:19:28.080 --> 0:19:31.919
<v Speaker 1>populated suburban areas and potentially even cities, and that's the

0:19:31.920 --> 0:19:35.879
<v Speaker 1>only way it makes sense. And so that's the uh,

0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:38.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, the big question right now is will that

0:19:38.640 --> 0:19:42.959
<v Speaker 1>ever happen? Spencer, You guys UM did an investigation thorough

0:19:42.960 --> 0:19:46.639
<v Speaker 1>internal documents, government reports. What was the takeaway? Do you

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.800
<v Speaker 1>feel from the conversations and the stuff that you read

0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:53.520
<v Speaker 1>that you do feel like Amazon is valuing maybe production

0:19:53.560 --> 0:19:57.560
<v Speaker 1>over safety here. Well, that's the feeling of many of

0:19:57.600 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the people who are on the front lines doing these tests.

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:03.639
<v Speaker 1>And that's where there's tension. Is there's people and in

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:07.480
<v Speaker 1>offices who earn the most money, um, and have goals

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.600
<v Speaker 1>that they have to make and they're you know, cracking

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:12.199
<v Speaker 1>the whip. And then there are people out on the

0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.720
<v Speaker 1>front lines who are conducting these tests and seeing these

0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:18.120
<v Speaker 1>things crashing down, and a lot of them are just saying, look,

0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:20.840
<v Speaker 1>I would not want this thing flying over my house

0:20:20.960 --> 0:20:25.199
<v Speaker 1>or my children, um. And and some concerns there and they,

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, they it's the point they even like, we'll

0:20:27.520 --> 0:20:31.119
<v Speaker 1>bring their vehicles and duck into their cars. Uh. You know,

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:33.720
<v Speaker 1>they have their their cars on standby just in case

0:20:33.760 --> 0:20:36.480
<v Speaker 1>they need something to to take cover in. And they

0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:39.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, those are alarming things for something that, um,

0:20:40.040 --> 0:20:43.120
<v Speaker 1>they're trying to get more approval to do testing more

0:20:43.480 --> 0:20:45.840
<v Speaker 1>closer to people and be on the line of site

0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:49.520
<v Speaker 1>of of drone operators and that sort of thing. That it's, uh,

0:20:49.760 --> 0:20:52.480
<v Speaker 1>it's still a long way off. What do you most

0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:58.359
<v Speaker 1>look forward to getting delivered by drone really quickly? I nothing.

0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:03.080
<v Speaker 1>I like to how eighty five pounds flying around me air.

0:21:03.119 --> 0:21:05.679
<v Speaker 1>I'm a little a little caustious to Spencer. Thank you.

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>Spencer Soaper, technology and e commerce reporter at Bloomberg News.

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:10.280
<v Speaker 1>Check out his stories of Bloomberg Big Take in our

0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 1>thanks to Jill Webber, editor of Bloomberg business Week. This

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:18.040
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. You're

0:21:18.080 --> 0:21:22.040
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg

0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:26.880
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. So we've been

0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:29.399
<v Speaker 1>watching shares of Tesla. Let me just bring them. Well,

0:21:29.400 --> 0:21:31.400
<v Speaker 1>they were down pre market on this news you were.

0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:35.000
<v Speaker 1>They're still down about four A few things. We had

0:21:35.200 --> 0:21:38.359
<v Speaker 1>Tesla exporting just sixty cars produced at the shang Hi factory.

0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:40.439
<v Speaker 1>That was in March, a record low, A strong domestic

0:21:40.440 --> 0:21:42.119
<v Speaker 1>demands sucked up most of the output. And then, of

0:21:42.160 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 1>course you have what is a most read on the

0:21:43.840 --> 0:21:46.159
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg about Elon muss saying thanks no thanks to a

0:21:46.160 --> 0:21:49.040
<v Speaker 1>Twitter board seat, Yeah, rejecting that offer to a join

0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:50.959
<v Speaker 1>the board in a surprise twice. So a week ago

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:54.240
<v Speaker 1>we were talking about him buying more than nine percent

0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:56.840
<v Speaker 1>of outstanding shares of Twitter, and a week later a

0:21:56.840 --> 0:21:58.600
<v Speaker 1>lot has changed. Let's get into it with Dana Hole,

0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:00.840
<v Speaker 1>technology reporter at Bloomberg. Here she joins us on the

0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 1>phone from our San Francisco bureau. Okay, Dana, the plot pickens. Uh,

0:22:05.359 --> 0:22:07.320
<v Speaker 1>this is never a dull moment in your world, whether

0:22:07.359 --> 0:22:11.400
<v Speaker 1>it's Tesla, Twitter, or Elon Musk or all of the above. Um,

0:22:11.440 --> 0:22:15.679
<v Speaker 1>what does Elon Musk? What can he do with Twitter

0:22:16.359 --> 0:22:20.160
<v Speaker 1>now that he is no longer? Uh? I don't want

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.159
<v Speaker 1>to say on the board, but like a candidate for

0:22:22.160 --> 0:22:25.119
<v Speaker 1>the board, or we know he's not joining the board now. Well,

0:22:25.160 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 1>now maybe that's a better way to put it. Now

0:22:27.280 --> 0:22:29.199
<v Speaker 1>he can buy a lot more shares. I mean there

0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:31.520
<v Speaker 1>was a you know, so when he was offered the

0:22:31.520 --> 0:22:34.040
<v Speaker 1>board seat, there was a cap in place where he

0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:36.639
<v Speaker 1>could know he couldn't buy more than fourteen point nine percent.

0:22:36.800 --> 0:22:39.440
<v Speaker 1>Now that he's not joining the board, I mean, there's

0:22:39.480 --> 0:22:43.280
<v Speaker 1>no limit to him of buying and buying additional shares.

0:22:43.320 --> 0:22:46.000
<v Speaker 1>So it's led a lot of speculation like what is

0:22:46.040 --> 0:22:48.480
<v Speaker 1>Elon doing? Is he going to do like a hostile takeover?

0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:51.120
<v Speaker 1>Like what you know, I mean, we would we would

0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:53.560
<v Speaker 1>love to know. We're trying to, you know, very eager

0:22:53.600 --> 0:22:55.520
<v Speaker 1>to get to the bottom of what exactly happened. And

0:22:55.520 --> 0:22:57.960
<v Speaker 1>it's the whole timing of everything was just so strange.

0:22:57.960 --> 0:23:01.479
<v Speaker 1>It's like he'd closes the stage in the sec filoting,

0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:04.639
<v Speaker 1>he's offered a board seat, you know, and then late

0:23:04.760 --> 0:23:07.400
<v Speaker 1>last night, the CEO of Twitter says, well, actually he's

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:09.000
<v Speaker 1>not joining the board. But then if he went to

0:23:09.000 --> 0:23:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Twitter's website, they already had him listed as a board member.

0:23:11.840 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 1>And it's like, did he just not want to go

0:23:13.840 --> 0:23:16.240
<v Speaker 1>through the training to be a board member? Did he?

0:23:16.840 --> 0:23:18.840
<v Speaker 1>You know, bristled the idea of a background check, Like

0:23:18.840 --> 0:23:21.600
<v Speaker 1>the whole wording of the state was very odd. Okay,

0:23:21.640 --> 0:23:24.399
<v Speaker 1>so you know, and I look at the rich go

0:23:24.560 --> 0:23:26.760
<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg terminal. Elon Musk is the wealthiest person

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:28.000
<v Speaker 1>in the world. He's got an net worth of two

0:23:28.320 --> 0:23:31.840
<v Speaker 1>sixty point one billion dollars. Just today, with Tesla's decline

0:23:31.840 --> 0:23:34.919
<v Speaker 1>in stock price, he's worth seven point five billion dollars less.

0:23:35.560 --> 0:23:38.680
<v Speaker 1>Does he care about his investment in monetary value or

0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:41.639
<v Speaker 1>is he just having fun here because he has so

0:23:41.760 --> 0:23:44.439
<v Speaker 1>much money he could literally afford to buy all of

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Twitter and do whatever he wants with it. I mean, yeah,

0:23:48.240 --> 0:23:49.879
<v Speaker 1>I think that he's got you know, he's got a

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of money and he has He is very interested

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:55.639
<v Speaker 1>in the media. I mean he always has been. He is,

0:23:56.080 --> 0:23:59.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, he reads a lot. He is the most active,

0:23:59.400 --> 0:24:02.000
<v Speaker 1>one of the most of users of the service. He

0:24:02.080 --> 0:24:06.199
<v Speaker 1>jokes around about having a news site called Pravada. You know,

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 1>he you know, I mean he's he's like, he's you know,

0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:11.880
<v Speaker 1>I think he's he's genuinely interested in this. But why

0:24:11.920 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 1>what led to the turnaround about like thanks but no thanks? Um?

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:18.119
<v Speaker 1>I don't really understand what happened there, Like did he

0:24:18.200 --> 0:24:20.160
<v Speaker 1>just you know, was he just board? I mean, did

0:24:20.200 --> 0:24:22.440
<v Speaker 1>he just sort of decided like, actually, I'm really busy

0:24:22.440 --> 0:24:26.240
<v Speaker 1>writing my other four companies or like or or was

0:24:26.280 --> 0:24:28.960
<v Speaker 1>there such an uproar within Twitter that that that they

0:24:28.960 --> 0:24:30.480
<v Speaker 1>were going to make it tougher for him? I don't

0:24:30.480 --> 0:24:33.760
<v Speaker 1>really know, We don't really know exactly what happened, but

0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:35.720
<v Speaker 1>but this certainly paves the way for him to continue

0:24:35.720 --> 0:24:38.080
<v Speaker 1>to be an influence. I mean, you know, he's not

0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:40.520
<v Speaker 1>encumbered by a board seed. He could just be an

0:24:40.520 --> 0:24:44.160
<v Speaker 1>activist shareholder. Well, you know what exactly happened, Danna, It's

0:24:44.200 --> 0:24:45.760
<v Speaker 1>that he actually now wants to get into mining and

0:24:45.760 --> 0:24:49.760
<v Speaker 1>refining lithium and all that good stuff. I mean, how

0:24:49.800 --> 0:24:52.400
<v Speaker 1>do you What I left talking about you is you're

0:24:52.440 --> 0:24:54.760
<v Speaker 1>someone who has covered him for a long time and

0:24:54.840 --> 0:24:57.800
<v Speaker 1>seeing his trajectory and the growth of him and things

0:24:57.880 --> 0:25:00.520
<v Speaker 1>coming out and or him saying things and trying kind

0:25:00.520 --> 0:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>of weed through to find out what sticks and what doesn't.

0:25:03.119 --> 0:25:06.280
<v Speaker 1>How do you kind of determine what sticks and what

0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:13.480
<v Speaker 1>doesn't in this environment right now? I mean, that's it is.

0:25:13.800 --> 0:25:18.919
<v Speaker 1>It is a challenge because you know, I know as

0:25:19.000 --> 0:25:21.480
<v Speaker 1>much as everyone else does in terms of like, you know,

0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:23.560
<v Speaker 1>there's sort of what he tweets and then there's what

0:25:23.600 --> 0:25:27.040
<v Speaker 1>he says. So for example, I think what's fascinating is

0:25:27.119 --> 0:25:30.200
<v Speaker 1>he spent the whole weekend tweeting about his plans for Twitter,

0:25:30.280 --> 0:25:32.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, the Blue Service and they should turn the

0:25:32.480 --> 0:25:35.880
<v Speaker 1>headquarters into a homeless shelter. And then we find out

0:25:36.119 --> 0:25:38.840
<v Speaker 1>late late Sunday night that he actually turned the board

0:25:38.840 --> 0:25:43.119
<v Speaker 1>seat down on Saturday. And now he's deleted some of

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:46.680
<v Speaker 1>those tweets about Twitter. So, like the whole TikTok on

0:25:46.760 --> 0:25:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the timing of all of this, I just fascinated as

0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:52.840
<v Speaker 1>to what what sort of led him to turn down

0:25:52.840 --> 0:25:55.440
<v Speaker 1>a seat then continue to kind of criticize the platform

0:25:55.880 --> 0:25:59.320
<v Speaker 1>then delete the tweets, like I mean, and I don't

0:25:59.359 --> 0:26:01.159
<v Speaker 1>really know. I mean, it's not like I'm talking to

0:26:01.200 --> 0:26:05.600
<v Speaker 1>him on the phone. I mean, so give the ring um.

0:26:05.760 --> 0:26:07.639
<v Speaker 1>But I just think it's like, you know, this is

0:26:07.680 --> 0:26:11.080
<v Speaker 1>a man who has a wide variety of interests and

0:26:11.280 --> 0:26:14.720
<v Speaker 1>he hyperfixates and but then he also moves on and

0:26:15.080 --> 0:26:17.440
<v Speaker 1>you know it's like flavor of the month. So I mean,

0:26:18.040 --> 0:26:21.800
<v Speaker 1>so that he's always been had his hand in many

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:23.720
<v Speaker 1>different pots and like this is just another one. And

0:26:23.760 --> 0:26:27.399
<v Speaker 1>I think that his wealth and his um, I mean,

0:26:27.440 --> 0:26:30.359
<v Speaker 1>he's definitely empire building for sure. Well, Dan, I'm seeing

0:26:30.359 --> 0:26:33.119
<v Speaker 1>a lot of tweets today from Twitter employees who have

0:26:33.200 --> 0:26:34.960
<v Speaker 1>been holding back with how they felt about it. In

0:26:35.080 --> 0:26:37.399
<v Speaker 1>some primity prominent ones sort of reading a sigh of

0:26:37.440 --> 0:26:41.560
<v Speaker 1>relief here. Can you explain what's going on internally on Twitter? Yeah,

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean I think what you're seeing people saying publicly

0:26:43.840 --> 0:26:45.760
<v Speaker 1>is that they, you know, they're relieved that he's not

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:47.520
<v Speaker 1>joining the board. That he would have had a real

0:26:47.560 --> 0:26:49.960
<v Speaker 1>impact on their culture. And you know that the Twitter

0:26:49.960 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 1>culture is kind of unique, and how do you absorb

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:55.320
<v Speaker 1>a big personality like Ellen. I mean, he's you know,

0:26:55.359 --> 0:26:58.720
<v Speaker 1>he would dominate no matter what. And um, so I

0:26:58.720 --> 0:27:01.960
<v Speaker 1>think that maybe some police who didn't feel didn't feel

0:27:02.000 --> 0:27:05.359
<v Speaker 1>comfortable speaking publicly about him being appointed to the board

0:27:05.440 --> 0:27:08.199
<v Speaker 1>or or uh, you know, nominated for the board, are

0:27:08.240 --> 0:27:11.440
<v Speaker 1>now kind of saying publicly that they're glad it's not happening. Hey,

0:27:11.520 --> 0:27:13.800
<v Speaker 1>just quickly, twenty seconds the news out of China the

0:27:13.840 --> 0:27:16.320
<v Speaker 1>cars produced at the Shanghai factory. Just really quickly. What

0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:18.560
<v Speaker 1>do we need to know? Well, the Shaka factory is

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:20.240
<v Speaker 1>so closed as far as I know, because of this

0:27:20.400 --> 0:27:22.719
<v Speaker 1>COVID lockdown. So I think, um, it'll be really interesting

0:27:22.720 --> 0:27:25.240
<v Speaker 1>to see how that impacts production in the quarter that

0:27:25.240 --> 0:27:28.120
<v Speaker 1>we're currently in. Alright, good stuff as always, Danna, Thank you,

0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:30.919
<v Speaker 1>Danna Hall. She is technology put up Bloomberg News on

0:27:30.960 --> 0:27:33.679
<v Speaker 1>the phone from our San Francisco bureau. As we mentioned,

0:27:33.680 --> 0:27:36.119
<v Speaker 1>watching shares of Twitter just one of the kind of

0:27:36.119 --> 0:27:38.800
<v Speaker 1>big tech if you will, names under pressure stocks down

0:27:38.800 --> 0:27:43.800
<v Speaker 1>about four three seven cents a share. Stock is down

0:27:43.880 --> 0:27:46.720
<v Speaker 1>about seven percent so far this year. You are listening

0:27:46.800 --> 0:28:00.199
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Radio. Yeah, but you let me drive, all right? Please? Right?

0:28:00.440 --> 0:28:09.600
<v Speaker 1>I want to dry good question this drive to the

0:28:09.640 --> 0:28:15.680
<v Speaker 1>clothes on Bloomberg Radio. All right. I'm just gonna say,

0:28:15.680 --> 0:28:17.919
<v Speaker 1>if Monday is any example, we're gonna be like wrecked

0:28:17.960 --> 0:28:19.680
<v Speaker 1>by the time we get to Thursday. It's a short

0:28:19.680 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 1>and holiday week. But you and I are both like

0:28:21.440 --> 0:28:24.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, so the the exchanges are closed on Friday.

0:28:24.160 --> 0:28:26.119
<v Speaker 1>That's why we're not here on Friday. But a lot

0:28:26.160 --> 0:28:27.760
<v Speaker 1>of people, including my wife, who works for the city,

0:28:27.760 --> 0:28:29.840
<v Speaker 1>don't have the day off. Well that's what happens when

0:28:29.840 --> 0:28:33.960
<v Speaker 1>you work in anything connected to the financial market. Yeah, sorry, wife, Yeah, hello,

0:28:34.080 --> 0:28:36.320
<v Speaker 1>But here's here's why that's notable, because I feel like

0:28:36.359 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>she has so many other days off that I don't get. Well,

0:28:39.440 --> 0:28:41.400
<v Speaker 1>it's a market. I always think at the beginning of

0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 1>the year, I'm always like, okay, now what our market days?

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:45.520
<v Speaker 1>Market holidays are like the bare minimum? I mean she

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:47.560
<v Speaker 1>works for the city, so she gets quite a few

0:28:47.560 --> 0:28:50.280
<v Speaker 1>more holidays, but not this one exactly. All right, folks,

0:28:50.360 --> 0:28:52.320
<v Speaker 1>we are hovering near a lowers. You hear Charlie Pellett

0:28:52.400 --> 0:28:54.840
<v Speaker 1>talk about it. We really have seen uh, kind of

0:28:54.880 --> 0:28:57.239
<v Speaker 1>some selling here into the clothes. You've got about nine

0:28:57.280 --> 0:29:00.400
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in the trading session. It's a week that's

0:29:00.400 --> 0:29:04.040
<v Speaker 1>gonna be chock full of economic news. We've talked about

0:29:04.080 --> 0:29:06.239
<v Speaker 1>it a lot. That's cp I print tomorrow. It is

0:29:06.440 --> 0:29:09.000
<v Speaker 1>expected to be a rough one. But as our Bloomberg

0:29:09.000 --> 0:29:11.479
<v Speaker 1>Economics team have been writing, Tim, you and I've been

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:14.400
<v Speaker 1>talking about it, We've read it, uh that this could

0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:16.520
<v Speaker 1>maybe be peak inflation, and then maybe we start to

0:29:16.520 --> 0:29:19.000
<v Speaker 1>see inflations start to normalize. I think certainly a lot

0:29:19.000 --> 0:29:21.200
<v Speaker 1>of whatever that is, we welcome that news. Let's see

0:29:21.200 --> 0:29:22.960
<v Speaker 1>what our next guest has to think about it. Megan

0:29:23.040 --> 0:29:26.800
<v Speaker 1>Hornaman is chief investment officer at Verden's Capital at Advisors.

0:29:27.080 --> 0:29:30.280
<v Speaker 1>Megan joins us on the access line from Hunt Valley, Maryland. Megan,

0:29:30.320 --> 0:29:33.320
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm great, how are you? We're doing well?

0:29:33.360 --> 0:29:36.560
<v Speaker 1>Thanks a lot um markets not doing so well today.

0:29:36.600 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 1>I've seen quite a bit of selling into the clothes here,

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 1>and I'm wondering how you're reading into it. I think

0:29:41.680 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 1>your prior guests also mentioned that that there is a

0:29:43.840 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of economic data coming out this week, not just

0:29:47.120 --> 0:29:50.400
<v Speaker 1>different c p I p p I reports, but also

0:29:50.480 --> 0:29:53.200
<v Speaker 1>keep in mind retail sales will be out later this week.

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:56.160
<v Speaker 1>You combine that with an ECB meeting as well, and

0:29:56.200 --> 0:29:58.240
<v Speaker 1>then the kickoff to earning season, there's a lot for

0:29:58.360 --> 0:30:00.960
<v Speaker 1>investors to digest right now. Well, they've been kind of

0:30:00.960 --> 0:30:03.720
<v Speaker 1>whips all this quarter to start anyway, Megan, earning season

0:30:03.800 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>is definitely on your mind. We were reading through your research, Um,

0:30:07.640 --> 0:30:11.120
<v Speaker 1>how can that? And our Gina Martin Adams of Bloomberg Intelligence,

0:30:11.120 --> 0:30:14.040
<v Speaker 1>who follows the equity markets, she too has been talking

0:30:14.040 --> 0:30:16.040
<v Speaker 1>about earnings estimates, how they've been going up for the

0:30:16.040 --> 0:30:18.400
<v Speaker 1>first quarter but also the second quarter and third quarter,

0:30:18.720 --> 0:30:21.360
<v Speaker 1>and that how this could really be, you know, certainly

0:30:21.400 --> 0:30:23.280
<v Speaker 1>maybe a game change or when it comes to sentiment,

0:30:23.320 --> 0:30:26.840
<v Speaker 1>what are your expectations for earnings as they get underway?

0:30:26.880 --> 0:30:30.120
<v Speaker 1>Of course with a big bank starting this week, so

0:30:30.320 --> 0:30:33.280
<v Speaker 1>the the estimates are for the growth to slow considerably

0:30:33.320 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>compared to what we saw last year. But that's okay. Um,

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:39.080
<v Speaker 1>typically earnings to end up beating by you know, three

0:30:39.080 --> 0:30:41.120
<v Speaker 1>to five percent, so we think it can be a

0:30:41.240 --> 0:30:44.040
<v Speaker 1>solid earning season. But this is really the point where

0:30:44.080 --> 0:30:47.240
<v Speaker 1>investors can also just get back to fundamentals. The first

0:30:47.320 --> 0:30:49.520
<v Speaker 1>quarter and even starting off, you know, the past couple

0:30:49.520 --> 0:30:52.920
<v Speaker 1>of weeks, we've seen sentiment really tested by a complete

0:30:52.920 --> 0:30:55.800
<v Speaker 1>pivot by the Federal Reserve. Um. We've also seen the

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:59.400
<v Speaker 1>war in Russian Ukraine not ending, inflation and issue. So

0:30:59.560 --> 0:31:01.920
<v Speaker 1>we have to get back to the fundamentals and actually

0:31:01.960 --> 0:31:04.040
<v Speaker 1>listen to the CEOs of what they're seeing on the

0:31:04.040 --> 0:31:06.800
<v Speaker 1>grounds as far as the future about corporate earning. Okay,

0:31:06.800 --> 0:31:08.280
<v Speaker 1>so what specifically are you going to be looking to

0:31:08.320 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 1>hear from CEOs? I always like you learn hearing from

0:31:11.080 --> 0:31:13.280
<v Speaker 1>the banks because they have such a good idea of

0:31:13.320 --> 0:31:14.959
<v Speaker 1>how the economy is. They have all that real time

0:31:15.040 --> 0:31:17.800
<v Speaker 1>data that shows credit card spend and what their customers

0:31:17.800 --> 0:31:20.800
<v Speaker 1>are purchasing. What do you look for specifically, Yes, So

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 1>from the bank perspective, we we've already seen consumer credit rise.

0:31:24.840 --> 0:31:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Last week we saw one of the biggest jumps on

0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:30.080
<v Speaker 1>record and consumer credit, so we know that consumers are

0:31:30.080 --> 0:31:32.239
<v Speaker 1>starting to feel the paine of higher prices and they

0:31:32.280 --> 0:31:34.200
<v Speaker 1>are turning to credit card debt, so you get that

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:37.320
<v Speaker 1>indication from financials, and will also look to see what

0:31:37.440 --> 0:31:40.480
<v Speaker 1>kind of losses they take from any exposure to Russian

0:31:40.520 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>businesses as well. But some of the more important things

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 1>that we're going to look at is regarding the supply

0:31:45.960 --> 0:31:48.880
<v Speaker 1>chain or company seeing any thawing in that, because there

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:52.640
<v Speaker 1>have been some initial signs them. Economic data that we've

0:31:52.640 --> 0:31:55.600
<v Speaker 1>seen with some optimism that we might see a turnaround

0:31:55.600 --> 0:31:57.920
<v Speaker 1>here in the second half of this year cannot help

0:31:57.960 --> 0:32:00.360
<v Speaker 1>because that can also maybe helpily be some of the

0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:03.640
<v Speaker 1>inflation pressures. So we'll look from that perspective as well.

0:32:03.640 --> 0:32:09.080
<v Speaker 1>What's unusual in the market trade for you right now? Unusual?

0:32:09.320 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 1>I think right now we're seeing that energy prices have

0:32:12.440 --> 0:32:14.760
<v Speaker 1>really come down quite a bit. You're seeing oil prices

0:32:14.800 --> 0:32:17.680
<v Speaker 1>come down significantly, but you're not seeing that also coincide

0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:21.240
<v Speaker 1>with a decline in inflation expectations. So there's some disconnect

0:32:21.320 --> 0:32:24.280
<v Speaker 1>there just from the economic standpoint, And what does that

0:32:24.360 --> 0:32:26.680
<v Speaker 1>tell you? You You know, there's a little disconnects. It's funny.

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:29.080
<v Speaker 1>I was reading something uh In earlier about just kind

0:32:29.120 --> 0:32:31.920
<v Speaker 1>of various disconnects within the market, whether it's between what

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:34.280
<v Speaker 1>bonds and the stock market are telling you and and

0:32:34.320 --> 0:32:37.720
<v Speaker 1>other things. When we do have kind of disconnections in

0:32:37.760 --> 0:32:40.760
<v Speaker 1>our financial markets, is it just kind of a sign

0:32:40.800 --> 0:32:45.840
<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty, We're just planning, not quite sure what comes next. Well, yes,

0:32:45.920 --> 0:32:48.320
<v Speaker 1>it can be a sign of speculation. But I do

0:32:48.400 --> 0:32:50.800
<v Speaker 1>think if ultimately things revert to where they needed they

0:32:50.840 --> 0:32:53.000
<v Speaker 1>should be. So I do think that if energy prices

0:32:53.040 --> 0:32:56.120
<v Speaker 1>continue to come under pressure, that you will see some

0:32:56.200 --> 0:32:59.160
<v Speaker 1>of the inflation expectations pull back. Right now, there's a

0:32:59.160 --> 0:33:01.200
<v Speaker 1>lot of information this week that will get and more

0:33:01.240 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 1>indication to see where we are in inflation. Your prior

0:33:04.400 --> 0:33:06.240
<v Speaker 1>guests had mentioned that we might be get into the

0:33:06.400 --> 0:33:09.440
<v Speaker 1>peak growth levels. I do think we will see peak

0:33:09.480 --> 0:33:12.880
<v Speaker 1>growth levels this year, but we will be settling into

0:33:12.880 --> 0:33:15.800
<v Speaker 1>a more higher inflationary environment. So you what you used

0:33:15.840 --> 0:33:18.360
<v Speaker 1>to be careful of how you're exposed in your portfolios,

0:33:18.880 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 1>making sure that you're looking at those areas that aren't

0:33:21.640 --> 0:33:24.200
<v Speaker 1>overly priced right now. That's the one thing that we

0:33:24.240 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 1>would recommend investors to do. Uh specific names or or

0:33:28.520 --> 0:33:31.120
<v Speaker 1>or sectors that you can give us, at least in

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:34.040
<v Speaker 1>the short term. I think one thing that you have

0:33:34.120 --> 0:33:36.320
<v Speaker 1>to look at, and this this very high period of

0:33:36.400 --> 0:33:39.520
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty is are you position the true way that you

0:33:39.560 --> 0:33:41.400
<v Speaker 1>want to be. So some of the areas that have

0:33:41.480 --> 0:33:44.240
<v Speaker 1>been really beat up. Look at some of these, you know,

0:33:44.360 --> 0:33:47.600
<v Speaker 1>this small cap area, the mid cap area, the international area.

0:33:47.720 --> 0:33:52.760
<v Speaker 1>These have significantly lagged actually the large cap value side

0:33:52.760 --> 0:33:55.160
<v Speaker 1>of the market this year. Look at those. Make sure

0:33:55.200 --> 0:33:57.600
<v Speaker 1>that your asset allocation is in line with where you

0:33:57.640 --> 0:34:00.520
<v Speaker 1>want to be, because I would guess that the majority

0:34:00.520 --> 0:34:02.200
<v Speaker 1>of these areas are out of line. So it may

0:34:02.200 --> 0:34:04.600
<v Speaker 1>be a good time maybe sell some of those managers

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:06.520
<v Speaker 1>or areas that have done so well to bring them

0:34:06.560 --> 0:34:08.920
<v Speaker 1>back in line with where your asset allocations should be,

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:11.520
<v Speaker 1>and maybe buying some those really beaten down areas of

0:34:11.600 --> 0:34:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the market. What about fixed income, What's what's the smart

0:34:15.160 --> 0:34:18.560
<v Speaker 1>play right now? You gotta stay short and defensive with

0:34:18.640 --> 0:34:21.120
<v Speaker 1>this income. I mean, that's the only thing from a

0:34:21.200 --> 0:34:24.000
<v Speaker 1>duration standpoint. And we have some some weakness in the

0:34:24.040 --> 0:34:27.120
<v Speaker 1>credit markets and investment grade and high yield, but not

0:34:27.360 --> 0:34:30.280
<v Speaker 1>enough to warrant really taking some sort of a tactical

0:34:30.360 --> 0:34:34.560
<v Speaker 1>move there. Eventually yields will rise enough that they'll start

0:34:34.600 --> 0:34:37.200
<v Speaker 1>to compete with some of the returns in the equity market.

0:34:37.239 --> 0:34:39.239
<v Speaker 1>I just don't think we're there right now. So for now,

0:34:39.320 --> 0:34:43.480
<v Speaker 1>stay defensive, sure term floating grain instruments, and then just

0:34:43.560 --> 0:34:45.160
<v Speaker 1>keep an eye on credit to see if that does

0:34:45.280 --> 0:34:49.920
<v Speaker 1>present some opportunities. Okay, Uh, Carol mentioned the CPI. We

0:34:49.960 --> 0:34:52.320
<v Speaker 1>get the number tomorrow? Is this the peak for inflation?

0:34:52.400 --> 0:34:55.560
<v Speaker 1>Do we get it from March? I think that you know,

0:34:55.800 --> 0:34:57.600
<v Speaker 1>whether it's mortar well, I think we still probably have

0:34:57.640 --> 0:34:59.120
<v Speaker 1>a couple of our minds. I mean maybe and with

0:34:59.320 --> 0:35:01.920
<v Speaker 1>with some so i'd surprise. Remember, we're not really rolling

0:35:01.920 --> 0:35:04.360
<v Speaker 1>off the energy yet. That's what second half of the

0:35:04.480 --> 0:35:06.919
<v Speaker 1>year story. But I do think in the second half

0:35:06.920 --> 0:35:08.680
<v Speaker 1>of this year that we'll be looking at very different

0:35:08.960 --> 0:35:12.319
<v Speaker 1>your your growth numbers. Yeah, that's what lorretta meister Mester said,

0:35:12.600 --> 0:35:14.520
<v Speaker 1>maybe later this year and certainly into next year, that

0:35:14.560 --> 0:35:16.640
<v Speaker 1>maybe we start to see kind of a more like

0:35:16.800 --> 0:35:20.200
<v Speaker 1>two percent number, that magic number. Big difference from where

0:35:20.239 --> 0:35:22.520
<v Speaker 1>we are. Hey, we gotta run. Megan Horneman, thank you

0:35:22.560 --> 0:35:24.680
<v Speaker 1>so much, Chief investment officer at the wealth advisory and

0:35:24.719 --> 0:35:28.359
<v Speaker 1>multi family office firm Verdon's Capital, on the phone from

0:35:28.440 --> 0:35:32.359
<v Speaker 1>Hunt Valley, Maryland. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:35:32.440 --> 0:35:36.040
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0:35:36.080 --> 0:35:37.719
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