1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: It's the favorites podcast presented by Fanduel. Football season is 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: here and there's no better place to get in on 3 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: the action than fanduel. I love betting at Fanduel because 4 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: they've got an APP that's safe and easy to use. 5 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: Plus they have all the markets I'm looking to bet, 6 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,079 Speaker 1: like spreads, life betting, player props, same game parlays and 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:22,000 Speaker 1: more so. Use Promo Code favorites and download the FANDUEL 8 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:25,919 Speaker 1: APP today to make every moment more this football season. 9 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: You must be one and over in select states. Call 10 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or visit fanduel dot com slash 11 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 1: rg in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia. 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:42,160 Speaker 1: One eight hundred next step, or text next step to five, three, three, 13 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,000 Speaker 1: four two in Arizona. One eight eight eight seven, eight 14 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: nine seven seven seven seven, or visit c CPG dot 15 00:00:48,880 --> 00:00:52,559 Speaker 1: org slash chat in Connecticut. One eight hundred nine with 16 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:56,840 Speaker 1: it in Indiana. K S gambling help dot com in Kansas. 17 00:00:57,040 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 1: One eight seven seven seven seven zero stop in Louise, Sianna. 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 1: One eight seven seven eight hope, N Y, or text 19 00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 1: hope and why in New York Tennessee redline is one 20 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:10,119 Speaker 1: eight hundred, eight eight nine, eight nine, one hundred five 21 00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:15,640 Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming, or visit www one eight hundred gambler 22 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to the favorites, the 23 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: podcast from the volume podcast network. I am Chad Mollman, 24 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 1: chief content officer of the Action Network. I am joined, 25 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: as I am every episode, by my co host, my companion, 26 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: my compadre, my bff, professional better time in hunter. Sad 27 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: it moved so fast. We're already in a week three. 28 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: I'm trying to have it slow down a little bit. 29 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: Even this week I was just thinking about I was 30 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:57,880 Speaker 1: like man, this is flying by. Already, already almost in 31 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: the week three. How's this happen? Is that just life 32 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: or is that just football mode? I can't believe it's 33 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:05,440 Speaker 1: week three. Like I looked up at the calendar. I'm 34 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: like what, it's late September. It's week three of the NFL. 35 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: I feel like we were just celebrating the beginning, we 36 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: just got into the start of the year and now 37 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 1: we're in week three and every line is cock eyed. 38 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 1: Whereas last week everything felt so clear, this week every 39 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: game feels like a struggle I've been researching and studying 40 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: and we've made some bets and I still can't wrap 41 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 1: my head around half of these games. But you know what, today, Simon, 42 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: we're going to do our best. We're gonna try to 43 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: get to our final five. Again, reminder, these are final 44 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,960 Speaker 1: five as of a Thursday afternoon. Simon and I the contest. 45 00:02:48,000 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: We are in the lines lock midweek. We do not 46 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:54,520 Speaker 1: have to put our picks in until Sunday at noon. 47 00:02:54,880 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 1: So Simon and I, after we do the show convinced me, 48 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: which you can watch on the Action Network Youtube, Channe, 49 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:03,480 Speaker 1: in all the action network APP and on Action Network Twitter, 50 00:03:03,600 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: at twitter, at action network HQ. We do that eleven 51 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: am eastern on Sunday. We will do that show. Than 52 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 1: Simon and I will talk, will make our final five. 53 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,519 Speaker 1: We will put those in the APP, action network APP. 54 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,120 Speaker 1: Follow it. Phase Five. We got to do our big 55 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: balls better the week. Last week it was the New 56 00:03:19,720 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 1: York jets. Look at us. We gotta do some Scootch Roulette, 57 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: we gotta do some round Robin. But first, before we 58 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 1: get to it, let's do shark calls. Hello, WHO's there? 59 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:42,480 Speaker 1: I'm talking day maybe. What are the people calling you? 60 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: Saying this week. I feel like people are just trying 61 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 1: to get me down Chack, because I'm just feeling so good. 62 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: I mean there's Matt Mitchell, knows there's two. There's a 63 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: few better feelings in that too, and oh feeling just 64 00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: walk around this week to and I feel like Philadelphia 65 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: especially was a buzzing. I'm feeling good. Me and child 66 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,839 Speaker 1: have had two back to back winning weeks, obviously way 67 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 1: better than we started last last year. So I'm trying 68 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: to not let the negative to get me down. But Man, 69 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: I did not think this colts chiefs game would be 70 00:04:07,840 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: so split. I thought all the pros would be on 71 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 1: the colts. They love the chiefs and I've already seen 72 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 1: the stats. I think Evan put out the Evan Abrahams 73 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,920 Speaker 1: put out the article. It's basically trends. A lot of 74 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:20,719 Speaker 1: stuff points to the chief so I get where these 75 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:23,000 Speaker 1: these pros are coming from. But then, just like me 76 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: and you chat, I think a lot of guys were 77 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,400 Speaker 1: from the other side of like you wanted to grab 78 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:27,920 Speaker 1: that seven, you want to grab the six and a half. 79 00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 1: You wanted to grab the six, now the five. It 80 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:34,120 Speaker 1: happens there. I don't see the pros really taken that Um. 81 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: So it's interesting the books did that because they know, 82 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:39,599 Speaker 1: again we already talked about, everyone's teaser is gonna have 83 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: the chiefs in it. Everyone's bet in the chiefs right like, 84 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: especially now that it's under six. That's such a key number. Um. 85 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: Interesting and again one of the more games I'm more 86 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: excited to watch this weekend because we just we already 87 00:04:50,880 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 1: took a position we don't go back to seven and 88 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: went to complete opts away again. That's probably more shocking 89 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,080 Speaker 1: things that happened this week and books are clearly taking 90 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: a stand. Like some number nerds gonna get fired if 91 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: the chiefs win this game by twenty one, because the 92 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,080 Speaker 1: books they're just gonna have everyone in the world having 93 00:05:08,080 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: to some teaser and parlays. Everyone's gonna all over the chiefs. 94 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: So definitely the more interesting calls I got. The next 95 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,240 Speaker 1: one is they want to stay away chat from the 96 00:05:16,279 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: bills Miami Game. I'm with you about loving Miami. We 97 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 1: love this spot, divisional home dog man. Could could they 98 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: not want us to stay away more? Um? So I 99 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:29,560 Speaker 1: think that will be one we won't put our contest now. 100 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 1: I took it out. Um, just just because there's other 101 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,760 Speaker 1: games I like more. I think I'm still gonna Bet Miami. 102 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: But interesting here that pros are really back in this 103 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,800 Speaker 1: bill's team in this position. I think historically, maybe they're 104 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 1: looking at what Josh Allen's done in this position. But Man, 105 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,359 Speaker 1: I don't I just feel like again. I know people 106 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: keep rating that the bills beat the defending super bowl 107 00:05:50,400 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: champion and then the one seed from the NFC last year, 108 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:54,600 Speaker 1: but come on, man, it's like a New Year. I 109 00:05:54,600 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: don't know really how much weight I hold to the 110 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 1: fact that they dominated those two teams. I am it 111 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:01,159 Speaker 1: will be a great test for both team so again 112 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:04,599 Speaker 1: talking about the most exciting game this week, I would say, 113 00:06:04,600 --> 00:06:07,640 Speaker 1: just from a fan perspective, Miami bills for me, for 114 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: professional bettings perspective, colts and chiefs. And then the one 115 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: we already talked about and we'll talk about more today, Patriots. 116 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: The pros love the Patriots. They hit that number big time. 117 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 1: Seen it down to two and a half in a 118 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 1: lot of books now. Interesting, interesting, interesting. Interesting. I think 119 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 1: of all the things again, of all the line movements, 120 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: those two ones popped out right. The colts and this 121 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: patriots one shock. They took it off the three. That 122 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: means they are more than happy for people to keep 123 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: coming in and taking this ravens number. Um. So I 124 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:37,480 Speaker 1: love that. At three, I mean, we'll talk about it 125 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 1: if it's doing happen the contest, I don't feel as 126 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 1: great because again we got burned with Carolina Panthers last week. 127 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: We both loved them, especially at three. We took it 128 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 1: a two and a half. The number landed on three. 129 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: So again that one we'll have to think about for 130 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 1: contests of its two and a half. But Patriots, I 131 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:53,440 Speaker 1: just feels like again a huge pros versus show's game. 132 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,400 Speaker 1: A bunch of really sharp groups have hit that number 133 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,559 Speaker 1: and you've seen the result. It's drop down to split 134 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 1: all this money and all the tickets coming the ravens. 135 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: So definitely those three games were the most talked about 136 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 1: to me for the last two days. Two things. Um, 137 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 1: on the colts, I'm shot the number moved to five 138 00:07:12,520 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: and a half. That tells me that, even though you're 139 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,240 Speaker 1: getting sort of whispers on both sides, that tells me 140 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: the majority of the professionals like the colts at seven. 141 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: They like the colts at six and a half, they 142 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 1: like the colts at six, no matter what the sample 143 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: size is saying about mahomes. In this situation there's there's 144 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: more than enough data, historical data, to bet the other side, 145 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: both in a micro point of view. On Andy Reid. 146 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: He's actually ah he's actually under five hundred against the 147 00:07:47,800 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 1: spread when he's on ten days of rest. So in 148 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,280 Speaker 1: this scenario, everyone always talks about Andy Reid being the 149 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,000 Speaker 1: guy who gained plans so well with a bye week. 150 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: This is extra rest, but it's not a bye week. 151 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: He's under five dred against the spread in these Thursday Games, 152 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:08,640 Speaker 1: ten day, ten day windows scenarios number one, number two, 153 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 1: there's so much more data since two thousand ten from 154 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 1: Evan Abrahams, director of Research Action Network. When this teams 155 00:08:16,600 --> 00:08:20,040 Speaker 1: have gone fifty seven, forty one and one against the spread. 156 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: In Week three, when they face a team that is 157 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: not winless, one against the spread, sixty eight. Okay, since 158 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: two thousand ten winless teams, both straight up and against 159 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: the spread, a thirty nine and twenty four against spreading. 160 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: Week three again, Indianapolis falls into both of those. If 161 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 1: you got the colds, plus seven, and that was available 162 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 1: for a hot minute. If you've got the cold, six 163 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,720 Speaker 1: and a half, I'd still feel good about this. Five 164 00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 1: and a half, you're starting to fall into that I 165 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 1: don't have the best of the number scenario anymore, and 166 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 1: that's when the percentages start to work against you. Um. 167 00:09:03,440 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 1: So I can understand why people wouldn't want to bet 168 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 1: the cults at five and a half, but I'm very 169 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: comfortable with the cult of plus seven. Yeah, and again 170 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,640 Speaker 1: we I felt like we both kind of agreed that 171 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: was gonna be automatically kind of locked in at seven, 172 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: six and a half. For us, we just we have 173 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: to play this number. We don't honestly have a choice. 174 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: What you guys all do have a choice now because 175 00:09:22,920 --> 00:09:24,439 Speaker 1: it is five and a half. We talked that's a 176 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: key number. Like if you got the seven, you're trying 177 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,760 Speaker 1: to be a genius and hit that middle. Can't faulter. 178 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 1: You literally are getting a point and a half of 179 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 1: lineman through two key numbers of six and a half 180 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:37,120 Speaker 1: and six. So I get the play of why guys 181 00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,240 Speaker 1: like the Kansas City on the other side, but to 182 00:09:39,280 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 1: me I feel like everything me and Chad talked about sound. 183 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:43,800 Speaker 1: With the cults, are getting back two major guys from injury, 184 00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: Leonard and Pittman, Pittman, and why receiver Leonards are a Linebacker, 185 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: and it's two guys that are crucial to their teams. 186 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,599 Speaker 1: Like do we think that they're better than the Jaguars? 187 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 1: I still can't think of Jaguars would have beat him 188 00:09:56,360 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: last week. So I think there are twenty four to 189 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,960 Speaker 1: nothing bad. No, that was just all their red zone 190 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,080 Speaker 1: trips were just a complete failure in that Ryan he 191 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: just looked just like he didn't know where to go 192 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 1: with the ball because again, hedn't Pittman. So this week 193 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: I just think the chiefs, we've seen this kind of 194 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 1: position before. They're playing against a team that we don't 195 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 1: know if. We don't care if the colts win, right, 196 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: I mean we probably arguing to put them in the 197 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: money line around Robin, but just in this position against 198 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,080 Speaker 1: his chiefs team, we've seen teams that are run dominant 199 00:10:24,080 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 1: had success against this chief's team and just through two 200 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: weeks I've seen teams pick up big gains on the 201 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 1: ground against his chiefs team. So to me, I know 202 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: it's a lot to bank on, but I just think, 203 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: like we talked about, people are under rating this cold's team, 204 00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:40,040 Speaker 1: but the numbers out five and a half. Now it's 205 00:10:40,080 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 1: it's hard for me chat now tell you guys to 206 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: take it where. I looked even twenty four hours after 207 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:46,199 Speaker 1: we did our show and we talked about that one 208 00:10:46,200 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 1: book hanging that seven. That seven was still there twenty 209 00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:51,480 Speaker 1: four hours later. So the value was there. It was 210 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 1: sitting there. It's just unfortunate that it dropped so heavily 211 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 1: before the week to five and a half. Like it's 212 00:10:56,800 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 1: just hard to give that out when we're sitting on 213 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,080 Speaker 1: six and a half and seven. And it also it 214 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:02,760 Speaker 1: dropped like in the last twelve hours. It was a 215 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: six and a half into late into Wednesday night. So, uh, 216 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:11,040 Speaker 1: the other game you talked about built dolphins. Look, I 217 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: think this is almost one of those things where it's 218 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,200 Speaker 1: shaping up. The bills have been so dominant and the 219 00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: bills historically, if the bills win, they cover. If otherwise 220 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: bet the dolphins on the money line. It almost feels 221 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,400 Speaker 1: like you should do that right then. Obviously you can 222 00:11:29,400 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: play the six and a half because that's the right 223 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,120 Speaker 1: number to play, but the bills have been one of 224 00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: those teams that are covering juggernauts and if they're gonna win, 225 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: they're gonna dominate and again we're all gonna be on 226 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,199 Speaker 1: the over. Like I would love the company and be 227 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: that guy to like no bet this under. It's just 228 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 1: I love both these offenses and I've see weaknesses on 229 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,880 Speaker 1: both defenses. Again, the bills have had injuries to their secondary. 230 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: Zavian Howard popped up with the injury list this week 231 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,480 Speaker 1: and again if he's got a groin injury. You know 232 00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: I got Gabe Davis coming back to join Stefon Diggs 233 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:06,240 Speaker 1: to me again. We can all talk about one two COMBOS. 234 00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: I've even coming this year. I loveday Davis, that one 235 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: to Combo Him and digs with Alan like scrambled mode. 236 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 1: It's just it's uncoverable, especially if you have your number 237 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: one corner hasn't a pulled groin. So yeah, something to 238 00:12:18,360 --> 00:12:20,839 Speaker 1: keep your eye on Um. But I just there's other 239 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,439 Speaker 1: games like I can see it has in the contest. 240 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:24,440 Speaker 1: The fact that I already heard a couple of pros 241 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 1: really come in and really vouch for this bill's team. 242 00:12:27,559 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 1: Now we saw the number jump from four and a 243 00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:30,960 Speaker 1: half the five and a half to six and a half. 244 00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: That's pro money. That's a real groups making real noise 245 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: on this bill's team. So it's just hard for us 246 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:38,320 Speaker 1: to kind of go against that. Where in this position 247 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 1: we always take Miami. It's just like a home divisional dog, 248 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: and a lot of the trends back it up. Like 249 00:12:43,600 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 1: in this position, a team like the bills, who have, think, 250 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:51,000 Speaker 1: won both games by over twenty points, they don't fare 251 00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 1: well in week three. They usually do not cover. So again, 252 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: Chad and are already talking. Now you're gonna get an 253 00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: inflated line of the bills every week just because they're 254 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:01,120 Speaker 1: the most publicly favorite team right now. He's got a 255 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: good groin injury. Groin injury. Shout out heres. You know, 256 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: I got a phone call today. I'm a teenagers, saying 257 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:15,440 Speaker 1: that old squares like me he shouldn't be doing the sports. Well, 258 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 1: Quirky gets my guy like he, who knows what it's 259 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:28,880 Speaker 1: like to heaven grown. Yeah, we gotta think about who 260 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: we're putting in our final five here. We love the 261 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 1: colts at six and a half or seven. If we 262 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:34,839 Speaker 1: open it up and it's five and a half, I 263 00:13:34,880 --> 00:13:37,280 Speaker 1: don't know if I can get down on that exactly. Uh. 264 00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:41,560 Speaker 1: We love the Jags a plus seven. Yeah, no brainer. Seven, 265 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 1: seven a half. Six and a half. I saw chefter 266 00:13:44,679 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: put it out. He's Day to day right now, Herbert. 267 00:13:47,040 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: Then you see Winston might not even play. They're saying 268 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,400 Speaker 1: expect to see Andy Dalton for the saints team. They 269 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,240 Speaker 1: pretty much had the same injury. If anything, herberts might 270 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: might be a little worse because I don't think he's 271 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:01,240 Speaker 1: taking the drugs like Winston. Seemed like he'd steaken. Uh Again, Herbert, 272 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: I love You's trying to tough it out, but that's 273 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: a real serious injury. They said he is four crack 274 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,319 Speaker 1: cartilage ribs. I think that's code for four cracked ribs. 275 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 1: Like yeah, like, that's what that pretty much means. So 276 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: to me I love the position right again. Weird number. 277 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,560 Speaker 1: The fact that it hasn't moved in the public and 278 00:14:18,600 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: the professionals. I've taken a seven a little interesting. In 279 00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: the books haven't moved it. I guess that's just the 280 00:14:23,080 --> 00:14:25,560 Speaker 1: respect to Herbert. But yeah, I feel like we're in 281 00:14:25,600 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: a great position. They're getting seven and a half, seven 282 00:14:27,680 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 1: or six and a half with the Jacks here. So, UH, 283 00:14:32,440 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 1: another game. That I think is fascinating that we should 284 00:14:35,760 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: talk about Tampa Bay and Green Bay. We love this. 285 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 1: When it was Tampa Bay and minus two. It's down 286 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:49,480 Speaker 1: to minus one. Yeah, Mike Emmons got suspended. Yeah, but 287 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 1: he was out when we talked about it the other 288 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: he appealed. I thought he was gonna win, honestly, the 289 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,360 Speaker 1: appeal because again, I don't know, it didn't seem like that. 290 00:14:58,400 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 1: They think you didn't throw punches. He just kind of 291 00:15:00,240 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 1: took a cheap shop pushing the guy. But I didn't. 292 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 1: I I bet at bucks minus too, assuming he'd be 293 00:15:06,160 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: out completely comfortable. I bet bucks minus two and a half. Jeff, 294 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 1: I just feel like, what are we looking at here? 295 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 1: We've got two teams that are essentially the same. Good quarterbacks, 296 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,920 Speaker 1: no receivers. So then which team has the better defense, 297 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: and which team is at home and which team has 298 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,240 Speaker 1: Tom Brady? Like, what am I missing here that people 299 00:15:28,280 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: all of a sudden have a lot of faith in 300 00:15:30,760 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: the packers? Mike Evans? Is that much of a difference 301 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 1: maker there? Are they so? Are they so enamored with 302 00:15:37,000 --> 00:15:40,280 Speaker 1: what the packers did against a terrible bears team that 303 00:15:40,440 --> 00:15:43,800 Speaker 1: everybody was overvaluing except for you and me, and what 304 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,840 Speaker 1: the bucks did against a really good saints team that 305 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: is sound defensively? In his spot where they always play badly. Like, 306 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: what are we missing here? I kind of want this 307 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,400 Speaker 1: game to get to pick so I can bet the 308 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: bucks again. It could be teaser protect and right the 309 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 1: one and a half was hanging up there. That means 310 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:03,680 Speaker 1: everyone in the world was grabbing the seven a half 311 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: in their teasers. Um, to me, it's just nothing's changed. 312 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 1: Like I still keep betting this number. I love everything 313 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: Tampa does well against everything that is a weakness to 314 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 1: green back Green Bay. Right now they're two living receivers. 315 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: They're one and two. Number two target share receivers is 316 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:23,480 Speaker 1: a j dillon and Jones, two running backs. Okay, I'm 317 00:16:23,520 --> 00:16:26,000 Speaker 1: going against a team that has arguably the best, some 318 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: of the best linebacking corps and some the quickest D 319 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: ns in football on Tampa. Um, I just love the 320 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: scheme too. Of Brady has been running the ball. He's 321 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,720 Speaker 1: trying to get four net involved. They could not run 322 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 1: the ball at all against the saints. That did not 323 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,680 Speaker 1: deter them at all. They just kept running it. The 324 00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: bears are picking up chunks and chunks of yards running 325 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: against the Green Bay team. Sam was U Minnesota Vikings. 326 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:53,760 Speaker 1: So again it's about matchup and you can factor into historically, 327 00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,600 Speaker 1: Rogers and Florida it's always bad right. We've we've looked 328 00:16:57,600 --> 00:17:00,080 Speaker 1: at it. I think he is in his career just 329 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 1: against Tampa is one in three. And think about all 330 00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 1: those bad teams he played against the mid two thousands. 331 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,200 Speaker 1: Still it just has not performed well when he goes 332 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: down there. So nothing's changed. I mean, I'm not shocked. 333 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 1: I honestly the publics come in again another offensive linement 334 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 1: for the Tampa as well. Guy I added to the 335 00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: four week I r. So it's like they just keep 336 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: adding guys from that oldligned. People are gonna see that. 337 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 1: Like I get it. Um maybe I'm not gonna make this, 338 00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: you know, one of my bigger bets of the week, 339 00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: but I can still see us maybe getting this one 340 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 1: in the contest because it's just a really nice spot 341 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: for this Tampa team. First home game against Green Bay 342 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: after a divisional win on the road and just against 343 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,200 Speaker 1: a defense they're they're not gonna face really this year. 344 00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 1: This will probably one of the best defenses they'll play 345 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 1: all year in Green Bay, honestly, just because we've seen 346 00:17:43,200 --> 00:17:45,199 Speaker 1: their division. It's just bears don't have a great defensive 347 00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: lines and have a great defense and the Vikings really 348 00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 1: don't either. So to me this is a nice position 349 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: of being getting Tampa, where I think people are just 350 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 1: doubting on him because the injuries, where it's just they're 351 00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 1: not it's not that big of a deal, like Julio 352 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 1: is gonna be back. I just think they're gonna be 353 00:17:57,960 --> 00:17:59,800 Speaker 1: able to survive in advance. In this kind of matchup, 354 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:02,159 Speaker 1: it's me a fight, but to me I think we're 355 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: getting great value on this Tampa team. I have them 356 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:08,359 Speaker 1: in the contest right now. I have them. I would 357 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: say that we have two teams, the bucks and the Jags, 358 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: where the number is going to be where we wanted 359 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: to be. So that's sort of what I'm going with. 360 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:26,000 Speaker 1: And then the colts were waiting to see. Um. Let's 361 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,879 Speaker 1: talk about the panthers for a second. You just mentioned 362 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 1: Jamis Matt Rule, who I've been a big believer in. 363 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 1: Maybe terrible. So I'm a little frustrated, but it feels 364 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:43,760 Speaker 1: like the right spot. Again. We're owing two in the panthers. 365 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: Either we're seeing something nobody else is seeing or we're 366 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:53,639 Speaker 1: suckers and we believe we're smarter than everybody else. Throwing 367 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 1: a lot of weeds in their chat. This is your disaster. 368 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 1: You're the guy coming to the season that was high 369 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,320 Speaker 1: on them. I'm just have been getting sucked and by 370 00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: your love. He's two and fourteen. A Ts his last sixteen. Um, 371 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:07,160 Speaker 1: I don't care. I don't care what you were gonna say. 372 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,119 Speaker 1: There's no world we put this in. I don't care 373 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 1: if this never got the four and a half. I'll 374 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:13,879 Speaker 1: bet caroline at three. Happy to take, especially against an 375 00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:16,920 Speaker 1: overrated saints team. But no, no way this gets into 376 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 1: my contest. I'm sick of backing and losing money on Baker. Wow, 377 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,920 Speaker 1: no way it gets into the contest. Even no, because 378 00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:25,720 Speaker 1: if we're gonnat a ship numbers, they're gonna GI US 379 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:26,959 Speaker 1: two and a half again. I'm just I'm just not 380 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:28,919 Speaker 1: doing it with Baker at two and a half. Like, 381 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:30,159 Speaker 1: give me the three and a half and I'll think 382 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 1: about it. At two and a half to zero chance, 383 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: all right, well, I feel like Um that. Just give 384 00:19:38,119 --> 00:19:39,760 Speaker 1: up on them, Chad. They're they're no good to you. 385 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 1: They keep screwing you. You know what, they give me 386 00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: nothing in return. I keep loving them, they keep hurting me. 387 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:49,920 Speaker 1: This is no good. This is like like when Jessica 388 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: Segal broke up with me when I was at junior 389 00:19:52,040 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: in high school. We can't see good God a bad 390 00:20:01,359 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: God's only we just I just love that name too, 391 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:17,840 Speaker 1: because she sounds like she'd be good looking. She beautiful. 392 00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 1: Crush me Um. All right. Well, then, they're out. The 393 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,840 Speaker 1: start of the NFL season is here. In the best 394 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:30,480 Speaker 1: place to practice your touchdown dance is on Fanduel, America's 395 00:20:30,560 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 1: Number One sports book. Fanduel was kicking off week one 396 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: with a no sweat bet for everybody. 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I haven't gone back to 425 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: the Patriots yet. I want to save that one holts 426 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 1: is sort of in there, but we got to see 427 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 1: the number vikes minus six. It's like I got a 428 00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 1: lot of back and forth on this one to not 429 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: so much for mother pros, but just just in daily 430 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: life and social media. Of like I get it again. 431 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 1: We already talked with the lines. Offense looks incredible like 432 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 1: but the hardest party is they've had two games at home. 433 00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 1: Now you're going on our road against the Minnesota and 434 00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:47,200 Speaker 1: the historically their defense placed so well at that one 435 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:50,320 Speaker 1: pm slot with that crowd noise. We have to fact 436 00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,199 Speaker 1: out it in. So it's not shocking that tons of 437 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,879 Speaker 1: public money is coming in after a big fade, you know, 438 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,120 Speaker 1: of Kirk. Like they lost money on Kirk on Monday 439 00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: night and now they just hate him. But X and 440 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: knows wise. Kind of scary like this. This line's team. 441 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:05,880 Speaker 1: I talked coming to the season. I had them great 442 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 1: as my second offensive line or third offensive line. They've 443 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: played that out. They've been absolutely dominant in the trenches 444 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: their offensive line. Um, so I get what people are saying. 445 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:18,719 Speaker 1: Right this is a huge number for Kirk and this 446 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,120 Speaker 1: offense to be favored by against a team that puts 447 00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 1: up points. Um, I agree six is a lot. I'm 448 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,000 Speaker 1: seeing some five and a halfs out there. So clearly 449 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: the pros are coming in on the lines as well. 450 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: So I probably will, probably will end up wavering on 451 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: this one, being talked off of it, but I still 452 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: believe this is a good spot to take. Kirk and 453 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 1: the fact that the lines again, they've looked well against 454 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,439 Speaker 1: an eagles team and a Washington team. I don't know, 455 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,919 Speaker 1: I thought Minnesota had the opportunities but they kind of 456 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: blew it. And what would this number have been if 457 00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: you say that Minnesota did lose just by three? Would 458 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 1: this still be sitting at seven? And the public will 459 00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:56,320 Speaker 1: kind of be back in on the Minn a little bit, 460 00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,800 Speaker 1: most likely. So I just had to take the value 461 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 1: where it comes and the lines team again, big believer 462 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 1: in them. We already talked about this is kind of 463 00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,200 Speaker 1: their moment in this division. Like you want to win 464 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 1: this division or you know, shock people make the playoffs, 465 00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,280 Speaker 1: you gotta go to Minnesota Win this game. I just 466 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: I can't see how they do it unless jared golf 467 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,399 Speaker 1: really has a moment again on the road with that 468 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 1: crowd noise. I just can't see it happening. So here's 469 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:26,640 Speaker 1: our problem right now. There's a lot of games we're 470 00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: not feeling very confident about. We're like five games in Chad, 471 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:33,440 Speaker 1: but I'm looking at the list of games that we 472 00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,199 Speaker 1: sort of pinpointed. The Panthers was on the list, the 473 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,120 Speaker 1: Vikings was on the list, the dolphins was on the list, 474 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 1: all games that we just talked ourselves out of. The jags. 475 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,879 Speaker 1: We like the bucks, we like the Falcons, we liked 476 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Oh, dude, that numbers down to one. Yeah, 477 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,560 Speaker 1: you know why? The Silent Hawaiian Chad. You gotta believe 478 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: in Marcus Mariota. I tried convincing you knows two you 479 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,680 Speaker 1: just wouldn't bite listen to I realize something here about 480 00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:05,480 Speaker 1: this guy, the silent Hawaiian. Okay, this man, he's a 481 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,400 Speaker 1: kind of friend. He texted you, he says come over. 482 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,200 Speaker 1: You head over to his house. You get there, it's 483 00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,760 Speaker 1: eight thirty o'clock at night. All the lights are off right. 484 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 1: You walk in, Hey Marcus, you hear nothing. You keep walking. 485 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:16,439 Speaker 1: All of a sudden you see a flicker of a 486 00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 1: TV light in the back room. You walk back there. 487 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: What do you find? Mariotta with a TV on muted 488 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:25,479 Speaker 1: TV not's saying a word, just sitting there watching in 489 00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:29,520 Speaker 1: silence game film. This guy is a work aholic. Doesn't 490 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: speak much, but everything you hear he's the ultimate leader, 491 00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: by in brother by hate on this Atlanta team. I 492 00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,880 Speaker 1: can't get over a hype time about this matchup. See, 493 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: how's the worst? This this? If we'RE NOT gonna take 494 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 1: Atlanta here, we're frauds. If we don't take them back 495 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: them to beat the worst team of football, we're frauds. 496 00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: We'd have to take Atlanta here. I don't know what 497 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: else to do. I mean this number is basically flipped. Yeah, 498 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:55,560 Speaker 1: it's a ship number. I'M NOT gonna lie to you, 499 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:57,880 Speaker 1: but we're it's like we talked about earlier. You don't 500 00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,399 Speaker 1: want to take it because it was like literally a 501 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: pick that they have to win, and I've I've come 502 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,520 Speaker 1: to terms with it. I'm back in Atlanta to win 503 00:26:04,560 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: this game against Seattle. I do. I think Seattle is 504 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 1: the worst team in football and like again them in 505 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:10,439 Speaker 1: the bears. I talked coming to you. I just had 506 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 1: them the lowest rated. I gotta put my money in 507 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 1: my mouth is. It's like Atlanta. I'm with you. I 508 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: feel disgusting doing this. This is where they always burn us. 509 00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 1: I gotta do it, like I just believe in this 510 00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: offensive scheme and I like what they can do against 511 00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:28,679 Speaker 1: the Seattle run defense. So we're thinking about them for 512 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: the contest. We're putting them back in. Yeah, again, there's 513 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 1: gonna be a couple like you're gonna hate that. I've 514 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,200 Speaker 1: kind of flipped on where it's like I just feel 515 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 1: like I can't put the professional I gotta take the 516 00:26:37,840 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: professional part. I have it where it's like, what do 517 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,400 Speaker 1: the numbers say and what have we seen so far 518 00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:45,760 Speaker 1: this season? Um, because some of these teams, again, I 519 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,040 Speaker 1: don't want to react, a week one and week two 520 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,280 Speaker 1: a lot of these teams weaknesses really popped out and 521 00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 1: it's like, I don't think it's how to think you 522 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,399 Speaker 1: can fix in one week. You kind of have to 523 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 1: take advantage of it here early on. So we'll put 524 00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 1: the Falcons in. So right now, here's what's amazing. You 525 00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: know how I feel about a F C south and 526 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,240 Speaker 1: NFC south, and I feel like every single week we're 527 00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: betting a F C south and NFC south. Right now, 528 00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:10,320 Speaker 1: the Games we like the most. Right now, the Games 529 00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: were like the most bucks jags Falcons and hopefully the colts. 530 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: Hopefully the Colts at Oh and two against Patrick Mahomes. 531 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,240 Speaker 1: We're praying we can get the number that we want 532 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: on the colts because we think we're so fucking smart. Simon. 533 00:27:28,640 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: It's a disgusting life Chab, but this is where the 534 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: value is, these teams that no one cares about. All 535 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:34,520 Speaker 1: right then, let me let me throw something out at you. 536 00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 1: New York football giants at home almost a pick right now. 537 00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:47,520 Speaker 1: I know it feels like a no brainer. We take 538 00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,959 Speaker 1: fading Cooper Rush on the road after you just one 539 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,159 Speaker 1: at home. I'm with you. I hate it, though. It 540 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:55,199 Speaker 1: just feels like all the guys I talked to they 541 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,600 Speaker 1: like this cowboys defense. I just think that's the big 542 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,520 Speaker 1: advantage in this game. It's cowboys defense to look like 543 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,040 Speaker 1: world beaters through two weeks against the bucks team and 544 00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:06,359 Speaker 1: then the Bengals last week. I don't know, I felt 545 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,119 Speaker 1: like I really love the giants and we talked about 546 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: it on Tuesday and Um again the numbers back it 547 00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:13,159 Speaker 1: up where it's like, yeah, you're getting a really good 548 00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,280 Speaker 1: value play and you might be able to get them 549 00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: as a dog come Monday night again, if the public 550 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:21,399 Speaker 1: keeps smashing this Green Bay team, I mean cowboys team. 551 00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,400 Speaker 1: Why wouldn't they move the line? I mean the book 552 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 1: is more than happy to let people pouring the money 553 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:29,000 Speaker 1: here on a road, road divisional favorite. So interesting line. 554 00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: I'm with you. Like say we could get it at one, 555 00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: maybe minus one and a half. I would take it. 556 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 1: But again there's just other games in the dock I 557 00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 1: like a little more than this one, where again it's 558 00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: my blind spot. This season. Me Chad talked about it. 559 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,600 Speaker 1: I I was dead wrong about this giants team and 560 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 1: I'm over two against them and they're two and oh 561 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 1: straight up in a t s. So we'll keep an 562 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,240 Speaker 1: eye on the giants. We've both been feeling that way. 563 00:28:54,680 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 1: I got one more for you. Actually, why don't you go? 564 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 1: You go because, like everything I look at, is Ross 565 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: and there's reasons to not do it. So you make 566 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,440 Speaker 1: make a make a suggestion. I have a bunch of 567 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 1: lines I love this week, but it's scary R I'm 568 00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:10,160 Speaker 1: on a lot of public sides where it feels like 569 00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: I'm walking into it. The biggest one is that forty 570 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,920 Speaker 1: niners game and again the broncos. It's more about me 571 00:29:17,000 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: fading their head coach and Russ that it is so 572 00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,040 Speaker 1: much playing the spot, where like usually always be taking 573 00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: the broncos. Here a team that's somebody being talked about 574 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,360 Speaker 1: on like the view about how stupid their head coach is. 575 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 1: Like that's usually we go against everyone when they're getting 576 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 1: national attention. But the more I look into this team 577 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,960 Speaker 1: they just seem like an absolute train wreck. And again, 578 00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 1: I don't worry people. I'M gonna give Chad tons of 579 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,960 Speaker 1: ship later in the season if Russ Wilson's really bad, 580 00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,320 Speaker 1: because your high horse for your Russell Wilson take was 581 00:29:47,440 --> 00:29:51,320 Speaker 1: unbelievable this summer. So I'm saving it. Don't worry people, 582 00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 1: I just I can't do it after two weeks. But 583 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 1: I don't really understand what's happened. I didn't understand this 584 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 1: line when it opened. It's kind of the same thing 585 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: where I looked at the coltslane right and then winger 586 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 1: line I was like, okay, I do see where they're 587 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: coming from, where the books are doing here, like we're 588 00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: overvaluing these teams. I do not think we're overvaluing this 589 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: four Nintis team. Again, maybe it's because it's a tray 590 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,200 Speaker 1: lands line, who knows? But with Jimmy. It does feel 591 00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,560 Speaker 1: different where I know exactly what I'm getting on this offense. 592 00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: I know exactly what the defense can do right again, 593 00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 1: one of the best defenses in football. We knew that 594 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: coming into this year. Dominant through two weeks. Now they 595 00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:26,480 Speaker 1: playing against a team that's just been dysfunctional against Seattle 596 00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:29,760 Speaker 1: in Houston. If this was week eight, maybe I'd get benefited. 597 00:30:29,880 --> 00:30:31,800 Speaker 1: Doubt to the broncos because they've had weeks to work 598 00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,040 Speaker 1: on it. It doesn't feel that way. It feels like 599 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 1: it's a quick turnaround here. Now they're playing a team 600 00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:38,960 Speaker 1: that just knows exactly they are, where the Broncos are 601 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,120 Speaker 1: still trying to figure out in this head coach doesn't 602 00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: know how to manage games like it's just again I'll 603 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 1: be on a public game with all the other with 604 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: everyone been on Sunday night. I hating in that position, 605 00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:52,440 Speaker 1: but I think they got one wrong here. I think 606 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 1: the books hung a bad line and they didn't account 607 00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 1: for Jimmy g coming in and just everything points is 608 00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 1: four owners team. I like what they can do defensive 609 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,840 Speaker 1: against the dumb very and offensively I like the weapons 610 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 1: they have the counter. A Denver defense that just doesn't 611 00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:07,160 Speaker 1: look that good two weeks into the season. Also, don't 612 00:31:07,160 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 1: forget Kyle Shanahan. He's actually better on the road than 613 00:31:11,120 --> 00:31:14,480 Speaker 1: he is at home. Yeah, yeah, I mean again. I 614 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 1: try to look at his record because I know he's 615 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: a blow uh five coach. I know I know the 616 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,200 Speaker 1: stuff back in it and I'm sure in primetime it's 617 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 1: no better. But I know for a fact that you're 618 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,400 Speaker 1: talking a MOUs true, he's historically been better on the 619 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:30,200 Speaker 1: road than he has been at home. And we also 620 00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:33,680 Speaker 1: know that I have a in the same way that 621 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:37,200 Speaker 1: I have a irrational love for an irrational love for 622 00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:42,640 Speaker 1: the panthers and irrational love for Kyle Shanahan. It wavered, though. 623 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,280 Speaker 1: I remember wavered a little bit last year and the 624 00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:47,680 Speaker 1: Fournai were kind of the dumps and people are talking 625 00:31:47,720 --> 00:31:49,760 Speaker 1: about we both agreed, though, we would give up everything 626 00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:51,880 Speaker 1: that happened as our head coach. So have you seen 627 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,720 Speaker 1: him waiver completely there? But we were you. You said, 628 00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,000 Speaker 1: do you think he should be fired, and I was 629 00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 1: like no, you'd be picked up in literally one minute. Listen, 630 00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: as my good friend Dave X is right now, the 631 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 1: three teams that the people who produced this podcast every 632 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:12,000 Speaker 1: week root for the bills, the Eagles and the bears 633 00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:18,560 Speaker 1: all in first place. Enjoy this moment. Chat enjoy it. 634 00:32:18,560 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: Could be it could be it for us. All right. 635 00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:24,440 Speaker 1: So I'm putting the niners in right now. The niners 636 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:28,800 Speaker 1: are one and a half point favorites, uh, against the 637 00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 1: Denver broncos. Um again, if someone fills a pillow case 638 00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,080 Speaker 1: full of bars of stoups and beats the crap out 639 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:37,160 Speaker 1: of me to take not take that, I won't take it. 640 00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 1: But for right now I just it feels really hard 641 00:32:40,240 --> 00:32:41,680 Speaker 1: that that someone's gonna talk to me about taking this 642 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,280 Speaker 1: for downers and I just think they're getting the hung 643 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 1: a ship number and we're getting a good line. It 644 00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:49,240 Speaker 1: is strange. Let me scroll all the way down here. 645 00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 1: Hold on, I want to see what what the money 646 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 1: is doing. The public wow of the money right now 647 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:01,720 Speaker 1: is on the forty niners. Yeah, so, I mean that's 648 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 1: the fear. Like I feel like I'm walking into it, 649 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: but it's just it just feels like it's such a 650 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,680 Speaker 1: bad number, like the look ahead was only two, was 651 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: two and a half again it slipped three and a half. 652 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 1: For me, that's good reason. Like the broncos are not 653 00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,040 Speaker 1: what people envisioned coming to the season. Yeah, me and 654 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,800 Speaker 1: Ted talked all summer. Who the hell, where the Bronco 655 00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:21,880 Speaker 1: was be getting all that Super Bowl money? m VP 656 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:25,400 Speaker 1: MONEY TO RUSS? It's like these are just unproven factors. 657 00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 1: And the coach that hasn't been a play car since, 658 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:31,120 Speaker 1: or maybe it was even worse, and he's looked like 659 00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,120 Speaker 1: a disaster two weeks in, just an absolute disaster. Zero 660 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 1: touchdowns on the red zone. Zero. All right, who else 661 00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,840 Speaker 1: you want to throw out there? I mean, we're gonna 662 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 1: get to the big balls, better the week or what? 663 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:48,960 Speaker 1: Let's do it. It's time for the big ball. Better 664 00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 1: the week. People already knew. Soon as his number came out. 665 00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: People thought it was in the colts, which I wanted 666 00:33:55,880 --> 00:33:58,760 Speaker 1: to but the number win against us. It's the Patriots. 667 00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: They get three, get two and a half. You just 668 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,560 Speaker 1: take it down to a pick. This is just a 669 00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:08,280 Speaker 1: game that bill always wins. It feels gross. I'm with everyone. 670 00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,840 Speaker 1: I I do not feel good doing this. It takes balls. 671 00:34:11,000 --> 00:34:13,560 Speaker 1: You have to really bet this one and believe that 672 00:34:13,600 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 1: you're getting an overrated ravens team against a patriots team 673 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,719 Speaker 1: that again, they don't look don't look great this year. 674 00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: But to me their strength is that defense and that 675 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,680 Speaker 1: run defense. So I like this matchup for this New 676 00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,400 Speaker 1: England team at home. We'll see. It might be a 677 00:34:28,400 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 1: little weather as well. Um, which again I think would 678 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,000 Speaker 1: favorite this New England team, because you wouldn't believe about 679 00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,640 Speaker 1: this ravens team is starting to become a past happy 680 00:34:35,680 --> 00:34:37,480 Speaker 1: team like that seems like where their strength as well. 681 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:41,080 Speaker 1: These running backs all banged up. So Um, interesting line 682 00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 1: movement in this one, but I've seen a couple of 683 00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,759 Speaker 1: threes still hanging out there. Hopefully you can find that three. UH, 684 00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,720 Speaker 1: love it down to two to one and a half. Wow, 685 00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 1: even that kind of move, you're gonna like it. Yeah, 686 00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 1: because just because I made this game one. So it's 687 00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 1: like if someone makes it a pick, I understand, but 688 00:34:59,280 --> 00:35:01,480 Speaker 1: to me I still give a little more respect to 689 00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:04,040 Speaker 1: this ravens team. But at three points it was just 690 00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:07,320 Speaker 1: it was just an inflated line of simple fact. The 691 00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:09,200 Speaker 1: Ravens coming to the year, we were on the train, 692 00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:10,880 Speaker 1: like we just thought they'd be much better than this 693 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,879 Speaker 1: New England team. Now we're three weeks in, they don't 694 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,160 Speaker 1: look that much different. Like they both have their strengths 695 00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,719 Speaker 1: and glaring weaknesses. The biggest one is the secondary, for 696 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 1: the Ravens are giving up the most receiving yards. They 697 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,640 Speaker 1: played two and Joe Flacco the first two weeks, like 698 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,640 Speaker 1: Mac Jones. If he can't step up in this matchup, 699 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:34,120 Speaker 1: patriots fans better start getting worried. I hate this bet. 700 00:35:37,320 --> 00:35:41,680 Speaker 1: I understand why we're doing it. Uh, it makes total sense, 701 00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:47,520 Speaker 1: but I'm I'm truly disgusted by it, more so than 702 00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:52,719 Speaker 1: the jets last week. No, well, the jets honestly look 703 00:35:53,960 --> 00:35:56,359 Speaker 1: this is this is a bias thing, right. I think 704 00:35:56,400 --> 00:36:00,720 Speaker 1: the Patriots have looked really, really bad. UH, the jets, 705 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:06,840 Speaker 1: I know, are bad, and the Ravens, I almost feel 706 00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 1: like here's what's hard about this. I feel like I'm 707 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:17,640 Speaker 1: betting against the second half Ravens, and I'm is that 708 00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:23,520 Speaker 1: of making me have a bias that shouldn't be there 709 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:28,240 Speaker 1: because of what I saw in the second half, instead 710 00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,239 Speaker 1: of betting the number. Do you know what I mean? Yeah, 711 00:36:30,239 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 1: but I'm telling you, it's not just that. It's two 712 00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,600 Speaker 1: weeks like flacco tore them up and their offense didn't 713 00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:38,759 Speaker 1: look right against the jets, and then to uh, in 714 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,719 Speaker 1: their first half without those two interceptions, he was going 715 00:36:41,760 --> 00:36:43,520 Speaker 1: up and down the field in this ravens defense, like 716 00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,439 Speaker 1: he just gave them the ball to make a look. 717 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 1: You know, it was thirteen because of his two turnovers. 718 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,080 Speaker 1: So I get where you're coming from. But yeah, I'm 719 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:52,560 Speaker 1: with you. I didn't overrate too much of just that 720 00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,320 Speaker 1: one half. I'm just worried about the way this ravens 721 00:36:56,320 --> 00:36:59,240 Speaker 1: teams played. I think Belichick is kind of the perfect 722 00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 1: guy of scheme up against one more kind of player 723 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,360 Speaker 1: like this is kind of where he shines in these moments. 724 00:37:06,120 --> 00:37:09,520 Speaker 1: Belli check, but you're right. Like I I honestly feel 725 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,520 Speaker 1: gross doing it. But again, I feel like we're playing 726 00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 1: the number. It's you're getting a good number here in 727 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:16,440 Speaker 1: a matchup that does mean much closer than general public 728 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:21,960 Speaker 1: really realizes. All right, well, I have now bet the 729 00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:27,560 Speaker 1: Patriots uh, plus two and a half. So there you go. 730 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,200 Speaker 1: You know, that's what's available at say. If you can't wait, 731 00:37:32,200 --> 00:37:33,799 Speaker 1: wait for the three. I just I couldn't. I can't 732 00:37:33,800 --> 00:37:36,400 Speaker 1: see this number getting below two. So like two and 733 00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,360 Speaker 1: a half I feel like as low as I'll get. Okay, 734 00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,799 Speaker 1: so the Patriots are in there. One of the game. 735 00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:48,440 Speaker 1: I think we should talk about uh. I don't like 736 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,480 Speaker 1: it at all. But it's the commanders plus six and 737 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:58,120 Speaker 1: a half. Yeah, again. I think the big reason will 738 00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,120 Speaker 1: be on this one is a simple fact that this 739 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:04,880 Speaker 1: team dominant first half, second half. Both Games, their offense 740 00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:08,440 Speaker 1: did nothing and their defense looked vulnerable. So to me, 741 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,759 Speaker 1: Washington their first two games they just keep fighting like 742 00:38:12,840 --> 00:38:15,919 Speaker 1: whence kind of has that level never die attitude. He's 743 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,279 Speaker 1: got great weapons the receiver position, like the kid they 744 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,640 Speaker 1: drafted this year, this rookie this year, is great. We 745 00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:24,960 Speaker 1: know about mclauren. I like well Washington has on offense. 746 00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:27,479 Speaker 1: The reason I'm just not, like so fared up about 747 00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,960 Speaker 1: this one is that their defense is just bad. Like 748 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,279 Speaker 1: the Eagles are gonna to be able to move the 749 00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:36,360 Speaker 1: ball for sure on this Washington team. So yeah, my 750 00:38:36,360 --> 00:38:38,799 Speaker 1: my one biggest claring thing where I like Washington here 751 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:40,520 Speaker 1: is just because this is way too many points in 752 00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:44,279 Speaker 1: divisional rivalry, especially when they're at home. But the fact 753 00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:46,800 Speaker 1: that the eagles team has lets teams back in again. Kirk, 754 00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:48,920 Speaker 1: that was on him. They should have came back in 755 00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:51,600 Speaker 1: that game. He just could not capitalize on turnovers or 756 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:55,279 Speaker 1: in the reds on at all. So Washington here six 757 00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:58,080 Speaker 1: and a half. I hated to chat but I'm gonna 758 00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:01,759 Speaker 1: be betting it. Maybe we're able to commit it. Yeah, 759 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:03,719 Speaker 1: you have to do it. It's just gonna be hard 760 00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:05,680 Speaker 1: for me to put in the contest. But like again, 761 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 1: if it comes Sunday and the same numbers, it's like 762 00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,480 Speaker 1: the tickets and money is on the forty nine and 763 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,480 Speaker 1: we have this Washington team here, I'd probably flip the 764 00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,440 Speaker 1: takedom or forty nine. Is just because I hate being 765 00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:20,520 Speaker 1: on the public side like that. But both, both these 766 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:21,800 Speaker 1: teams are on the fence to me where it's like 767 00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:23,920 Speaker 1: I want them both in. Um, I'll be able to. 768 00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:28,040 Speaker 1: I could flip either way come Sunday. Okay, all right, 769 00:39:28,400 --> 00:39:30,719 Speaker 1: we'll put it. We'll put a stick in there, a 770 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,839 Speaker 1: stake in it, a pin and it whatever it is 771 00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:37,239 Speaker 1: right now, I can tell you right now we love 772 00:39:37,280 --> 00:39:41,480 Speaker 1: the bucks, we love the Jags, I guess we love 773 00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:47,000 Speaker 1: the Falcons, uh, and we're keeping an eye right now 774 00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:53,040 Speaker 1: on the giants, niners, paths and commanders. Those are the 775 00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:57,560 Speaker 1: final games we're keeping an eye on. So two of 776 00:39:57,600 --> 00:40:00,720 Speaker 1: those four will be in our final five, most likely, 777 00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:06,920 Speaker 1: less something changes between now and Thursday. And again I 778 00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,799 Speaker 1: would think about the bangles because Chad liked it at 779 00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,480 Speaker 1: four and a half. I didn't hate that, it just 780 00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:13,239 Speaker 1: felt a little chalky. Um. Now it's of the five 781 00:40:13,280 --> 00:40:15,919 Speaker 1: and a half. So it depends what number you could get. 782 00:40:16,000 --> 00:40:17,920 Speaker 1: But I wouldn't put them the contest of five and 783 00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:19,640 Speaker 1: a half. I would maybe think of four and a half, 784 00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:21,480 Speaker 1: but that's that's a little, a little too rich of 785 00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:25,720 Speaker 1: five and a half. Now Chad's super smart. He knows 786 00:40:26,280 --> 00:40:28,440 Speaker 1: which way the numbers are gonna go. He tends to 787 00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:30,480 Speaker 1: be right on these things. He did win Scooch Roulette 788 00:40:30,520 --> 00:40:33,400 Speaker 1: last week. Executive decision was right because, I mean, you 789 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,680 Speaker 1: get to go first this week on Scooch Roulott, I 790 00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:39,560 Speaker 1: might as well. When all hope is lost, all that's 791 00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:47,360 Speaker 1: left is relief. Let's play scoots roulette. Well, I'm not 792 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:50,880 Speaker 1: going to take the bengals because I took the bengals 793 00:40:50,880 --> 00:40:54,040 Speaker 1: in my exact decision at four and a half. Reminder, 794 00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:58,279 Speaker 1: the foxhole was vikings minus six and the Simon says, 795 00:40:58,320 --> 00:41:00,920 Speaker 1: was bucks minus two. So if I'm doing scooch roulette 796 00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,000 Speaker 1: right now, you know what I'm doing. Going back to 797 00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:08,279 Speaker 1: the well, Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven. I was gonna do 798 00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 1: that one too. All Right, I'M gonna put my money 799 00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,160 Speaker 1: where my mouth is. Give me Atlanta. All in on 800 00:41:18,200 --> 00:41:23,319 Speaker 1: the Silent Hawaiian? Wow, what number? Plus One? I don't care. 801 00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,000 Speaker 1: Give it to me a minus one. I'm all in, Dude, 802 00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:28,960 Speaker 1: you are. I'm sucked in. This is usually when I 803 00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,759 Speaker 1: get burned bad by Atlanta, but I just watching the 804 00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,200 Speaker 1: film like they left so many plays on the field 805 00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,160 Speaker 1: against the rams. I just see, against even a worst defense, 806 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:38,680 Speaker 1: they're just gonna be able to make those plays. I 807 00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:43,719 Speaker 1: got Cordell Patterson, drake, London, cow pits, all very good weapons. 808 00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,840 Speaker 1: Um and Mariote is better than Gino, in my opinion. 809 00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,680 Speaker 1: They wrote me off. I ain't right back, though. That's 810 00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:54,000 Speaker 1: the problem. Al Right back, let's go. Our next partner 811 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:56,760 Speaker 1: has a product I've tried and loved because I wanted 812 00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,960 Speaker 1: to improve my gut health and get more energy. Listen, Guy, 813 00:42:00,200 --> 00:42:03,439 Speaker 1: everybody knows how into my health I am. We talked 814 00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 1: about it on the podcast. All the time I've had 815 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,359 Speaker 1: this first thing in the morning after I wake up, 816 00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:12,840 Speaker 1: and I love the mild tropical taste. 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To make it easy, 832 00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,399 Speaker 1: Athletic Greens is going to give you a free one 833 00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:11,839 Speaker 1: year supply of immutants supporting vitamin D and five free 834 00:43:11,880 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 1: travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to 835 00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:18,840 Speaker 1: do is visit Athletic Greens dot com slash favorites again. 836 00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:22,399 Speaker 1: That is Athletic Greens dot com slash favorites to take 837 00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:26,160 Speaker 1: ownership over your health and pick up the ultimate daily 838 00:43:26,280 --> 00:43:32,839 Speaker 1: nutritional insurance. All right, reminder, big balls better. The week 839 00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,840 Speaker 1: was the New England patriots. Here's the final rundown of 840 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:40,800 Speaker 1: all the branded bets that we've made Tuesday and Thursday. 841 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,840 Speaker 1: Foxel likes minus six, exact decision. Bengals minus four and 842 00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:50,319 Speaker 1: a half. Uh Simon says bucks minus two. Bengals are 843 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:54,960 Speaker 1: the survivor pick that we made scoot roulette. Chad likes 844 00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:58,200 Speaker 1: the Jacks plus seven. Simon likes the Falcons at any number. 845 00:43:58,840 --> 00:44:04,480 Speaker 1: And the big balls of the week the New England patriots. Simon, 846 00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:08,719 Speaker 1: give us a round robin here on money line. Round 847 00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:14,719 Speaker 1: Robin Parlay. All right. Unfortunately, showing two and three last week, 848 00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:19,279 Speaker 1: Landa didn't come through. I was a heartbreaker. Um this 849 00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,200 Speaker 1: week I wanted to give out the colts but, like again, 850 00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:24,880 Speaker 1: our guy everyone scared me off of it. Apparently my 851 00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,799 Speaker 1: homes doesn't lose in the spot, so we're open for 852 00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,719 Speaker 1: the cover. I'M NOT gonna waste your money to take 853 00:44:29,760 --> 00:44:32,759 Speaker 1: the all there. So we talked about Miami. Already. Screw 854 00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,160 Speaker 1: the points. Take the moneyline. So first one in Miami, 855 00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 1: second one in New England, third one in Washington. Fourth 856 00:44:39,120 --> 00:44:42,040 Speaker 1: one in Jaguars Chad. Chad. We already talked that. We 857 00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:45,200 Speaker 1: love it. The last one, I gotta do it and 858 00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:49,440 Speaker 1: again I'll never take them on the spread or anything. Arizona. 859 00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:53,040 Speaker 1: I don't know how the rams are the kind of 860 00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:56,000 Speaker 1: team that can ever stat like, you know, have a 861 00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,120 Speaker 1: lead and protect it. They just can't run the ball. 862 00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,480 Speaker 1: So I have a team in Arizona where I know 863 00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:04,160 Speaker 1: color American video game mode. I'll take it three and 864 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:05,719 Speaker 1: a half, whatever the money line is. I'll throw it 865 00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,040 Speaker 1: in the round robin just because this, to me, is 866 00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,280 Speaker 1: a coin flip game. That's why that number is so perfect. 867 00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:12,240 Speaker 1: A three and a half. There is no real reason 868 00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,000 Speaker 1: to take either side. It's truly who the hell knows. 869 00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:17,120 Speaker 1: You're dealing with anither of these teams. So I love 870 00:45:17,160 --> 00:45:20,000 Speaker 1: that to cap out around Robin. It's just a gross 871 00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:24,320 Speaker 1: finish taking this car cardinals team. All right, money line, 872 00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:29,920 Speaker 1: round robin, parlay, Miami Dolphins, New England, patriots, Washington commanders, 873 00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:36,640 Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars, the Arizona cardinals. That doesn't my brother that survivor. 874 00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:40,440 Speaker 1: Let's gotta lock it in. Well, we said Bengals. Is 875 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,120 Speaker 1: that and we're good with that. I don't see any 876 00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:46,440 Speaker 1: game on this board. That makes me feel better. Yeah, alright, 877 00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:49,160 Speaker 1: bengals it is. We live and die. Bengals going three 878 00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:52,080 Speaker 1: and me and chatter out. Simon, we will be together 879 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:55,840 Speaker 1: again and convinced me. Sunday morning, eleven a m eastern me. You, 880 00:45:56,480 --> 00:46:00,399 Speaker 1: Sean Croner, Chris Raybon, Dan rival, Samantha Pavidi to great show. 881 00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: People should watch it at action network, HQ on the twitter, 882 00:46:03,760 --> 00:46:07,160 Speaker 1: Action Network on the Youtube. Download the action network APP. 883 00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:10,239 Speaker 1: Follow everything we're talking about in the action network gap 884 00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:14,840 Speaker 1: phase five. You'll get our final five on Sunday. Everything 885 00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:17,200 Speaker 1: else follow the favorites podcast. That's where you can track 886 00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 1: the Foxhole, the exact decision. This, Simon says, the Scooch Roulette, 887 00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,280 Speaker 1: all that big balls, better the week, all that good stuff. 888 00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,760 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Melman. He's Simon Hunter. Producer is Matt Mitchell. 889 00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:30,760 Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the volume podcast network. 890 00:46:30,800 --> 00:46:33,720 Speaker 1: Download us from spotify, up a podcast wherever you get 891 00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:38,600 Speaker 1: your podcasts. Rate, review, subscribe, give us five stars, say 892 00:46:38,600 --> 00:46:42,080 Speaker 1: whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time, 893 00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:43,080 Speaker 1: I love you.