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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays

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Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto

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Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever you

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: We talk to a lot of folks at Charles Schwab.

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Speaker 4: You know, a lot of smart people there helping us

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Speaker 4: out thinking about these markets.

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Speaker 3: One of them on the global space is Jeff Clientop.

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Speaker 4: He's chief Global investment strategist, a Charles Schwab joints us

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Speaker 4: here in a Bloomberg Interactive studio.

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Speaker 3: Where's he in Florida?

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Speaker 1: Or yeah, but he's a Nitney Lion's Florida, or he's

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Speaker 1: all over the place.

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Speaker 4: Jeff, thanks so much for joining us here in our studio. Hey, Jeff,

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Speaker 4: we've been talking a lot about France today. You got

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Speaker 4: some political issues over there that they're all trying to

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Speaker 4: figure out here. You think about investment opportunities from a

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Speaker 4: global perspective. When you talk to your Schwab clients these days,

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Speaker 4: where do you tell them some of the best opportunities

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Speaker 4: are globally.

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Speaker 5: You know, I really like what I'm seeing in Europe.

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Speaker 5: I like outside the US for twenty twenty five, And

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Speaker 5: I know you see headlines that say what's going on

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Speaker 5: in Europe and you think, wow, how could you like this?

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Speaker 5: But look, we're likely to see accelerating global economic growth

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Speaker 5: outside the US in China, and that means countries like

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Speaker 5: France better economic growth next year than we saw last year.

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Speaker 5: We've seen rolling recessions through many of these major economies

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Speaker 5: over the last six quarters and earnings recessions as well.

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Speaker 5: That's likely to change in twenty twenty five. So rising

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Speaker 5: economic and earnings growth points me in the direction of

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Speaker 5: some of these economies that are rebounding, like what we're

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Speaker 5: seeing in Europe.

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Speaker 1: Jueff.

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Speaker 6: You know, if we're not going to find growth in

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Speaker 6: the US where China and we know Europe is on it,

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Speaker 6: you know what talk to us about emerging markets. I

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Speaker 6: mean that's right in my wheelhouse. You know, I'm the

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Speaker 6: Beichief emerging market strategist. Is that where you're looking for opportunities.

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Speaker 5: Emerging markets may be a bright spot next year. A

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Speaker 5: lot will depend on China, whether they get their act

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Speaker 5: together on the right amount of stimulus and directed in

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Speaker 5: the right areas. But one thing I'm interested in is

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Speaker 5: if you take a look back to twenty sixteen, after

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Speaker 5: Trump won the f time, what do we see performing

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Speaker 5: well well US small cap stocks. Of course, obviously America

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Speaker 5: first policies what performed the worst emerging markets. But what

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Speaker 5: happened in the first year of Trump's term twenty seventeen

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Speaker 5: the complete opposite. Chinese stocks were up fifty six percent

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Speaker 5: in twenty seventeen, leading emerging markets to be up forty

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Speaker 5: percent or so, and the worst performers were US small caps.

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Speaker 5: So the reason that happened, Sure we got tariff' sure

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Speaker 5: we got a lot of uncertainty around US economic policy,

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Speaker 5: but what we got was better global economic growth, the

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Speaker 5: same recipe WEC for twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 4: So when we think about Europe, I guess, at least

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Speaker 4: when I look at it, I see value, big discount

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Speaker 4: evaluation relative to the S and P five hundred and

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Speaker 4: the US. But I also see the risks of a

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Speaker 4: value trap. They're cheap for a reason, they've got no technology,

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Speaker 4: they're slower growth. So put that value trap risk into

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Speaker 4: perspective for Europe.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, if we continue to see the tech sector lead

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Speaker 5: AI names lead over the course of the next year,

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Speaker 5: then it's hard to see Europe really getting the benefit

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Speaker 5: of those that valuation differential. But I think we're actually

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Speaker 5: starting to see a shift towards leadership in other areas,

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Speaker 5: like financials, the classic Great Cup beneficiary. In fact, in

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Speaker 5: the second half of this year, financials have been outperforming

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Speaker 5: tech in Europe and that's good to see, and I

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Speaker 5: think that's critical. Getting that rotation is really important. And

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Speaker 5: you know, when I think about different factors that I

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Speaker 5: want to focus on next year, values one of those.

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Speaker 5: Cash flow is one of those, and I just see

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Speaker 5: that showing up better and better on my screens as

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Speaker 5: I look at Europe.

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Speaker 6: I mean, Jeff, you're mentioning financials, you're mentioning small caps.

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Speaker 6: I mean, some of these sectors are up twenty twenty

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Speaker 6: plus percent year tod eight, you know, so it's all

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Speaker 6: about entry point right now. I love that you're focusing

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Speaker 6: on factors because for me, it's been a carry story

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Speaker 6: in a lot of our markets. You know, you're talking

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Speaker 6: about a shift here though, from growth to value, a

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Speaker 6: shift from growth to maybe quality. So what factors you're

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Speaker 6: looking for? I mean, there is a difference between the two.

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Speaker 5: Now, Yeah, there is and so you know, I think

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Speaker 5: so I guess one of the examples I might give,

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Speaker 5: and just looking at some of the differentials here when

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Speaker 5: we talk about value, it isn't just sectors. I'd look

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Speaker 5: at let's say Coke versus Nestle. This is just an example.

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Speaker 5: I don't a recommendation on either, but Coke US company,

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Speaker 5: Nestlee is Swiss company. They both sell the same products

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Speaker 5: to the same people around the world, snacks and beverages,

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Speaker 5: geographic footprints, about the same. Coke trades at a four

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Speaker 5: pe premium to the Swiss Nestle, only because US investors,

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Speaker 5: which make up the bulk of coke investors, are just

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Speaker 5: more optimistic about everything than the Swiss investor, who's you know,

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Speaker 5: just gone through a recession in Europe and a war

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Speaker 5: on their border.

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Speaker 4: Fixed income Where does how does that fit into your world?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 5: Kathy Jones covers that primarily for US, but we see,

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Speaker 5: you know, shorter durations makes some sense in the US.

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Speaker 5: Outside the US, with accelerating global growth, expect to see

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Speaker 5: steeper curves as those central banks continue to cut rates.

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Speaker 5: I'd see maybe another five rate cuts by the European

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Speaker 5: Central Bank, which historically has led to a rise in

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Speaker 5: the price to earnings ratio, and that's maybe another way

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Speaker 5: we get around that value trap.

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Speaker 6: Jeff put on your options hat for me. I mean,

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Speaker 6: we're looking at a VIX here at thirteen handle. I mean,

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Speaker 6: come on, the markets are pricing in zero risk into

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Speaker 6: the year end turn. I mean, what's up with that?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know the markets are playing that post

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Speaker 5: election scenario rally, right. Every time we see a new

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Speaker 5: administration come in, from election day to inauguration day, we

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Speaker 5: see this low volatility almost surprisingly and arise in the markets.

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Speaker 5: I think that's a different story as we get closer

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Speaker 5: to January twentieth than inauguration day, where you've got the

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Speaker 5: president with potential day one policies that could really stir

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Speaker 5: things up a little bit. So I think as you

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Speaker 5: look at options volatility, expect that to start baking in

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Speaker 5: higher volatilities we get.

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Speaker 6: Do you think it makes sense maybe to write some

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Speaker 6: calls here, buy some puts, buy some protection taken what

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Speaker 6: the market gives you.

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Speaker 5: It might yeah, I mean, with the price of insuring

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Speaker 5: against that somewhat low, I think it's probably something to

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Speaker 5: look at in portfolios. If you've got a lot of exposure.

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Speaker 4: Jeff, were just about a month removed from the US

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Speaker 4: election here, did you and your team did you wake

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Speaker 4: up the day after the election saying we need to

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Speaker 4: change some of our outlooks.

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Speaker 3: Are just some of our outlooks here? In terms of

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Speaker 3: our global call, we did not.

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Speaker 5: And one of the reasons was we were expecting to

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Speaker 5: shift to greater global tariffs almost matter who won next year.

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Speaker 5: One of the things I think that's interesting is if

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Speaker 5: you look at all the tariffs that Trump has proposed,

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Speaker 5: you could get a weighted average tariff right in the

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Speaker 5: US of twenty six percent, up from two point six percent. Now,

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Speaker 5: that's rivaling the smooth Haully tariffs of nineteen thirty and

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Speaker 5: the Great Depression. But a more realistic scenario, I think

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Speaker 5: the bite is probably not as bad as the bark.

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Speaker 5: Maybe a rise of two and a half percent to

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Speaker 5: ten percent weighted average tariffs in the US. The IMF

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Speaker 5: and the recent World Economic outlook looked at that scenario,

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Speaker 5: what would be a move to a ten percent across

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Speaker 5: the board tariff mean it would only shave zero point

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Speaker 5: one percent off of global growth next year, so still

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Speaker 5: seeing intact a return to better economic performance and eernings

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Speaker 5: performance outside the US.

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Speaker 6: Jeff, you know, you gave that example of Neslie versus

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Speaker 6: Coke a little bit earlier, and your head went to,

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Speaker 6: you know, positioning in the underlying investor base. Mine goes to,

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Speaker 6: you know, those businesses themselves and where they located, right

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Speaker 6: and the actual currency risk there. And so I look

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Speaker 6: at the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index and I see it

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Speaker 6: up five and a half percent year today, and I

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Speaker 6: think to myself, just how much runway is left for

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Speaker 6: dollar strength?

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Speaker 1: Are you focused on that at all?

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Speaker 5: We are, so we're looking at the dollars. So we

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Speaker 5: had a view. This maybe is one way our view change.

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Speaker 5: We were looking for a weeker dollar in twenty five

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Speaker 5: and now maybe seeing the dollar retaining its strength in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty five on the back of these potential tariff threats.

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Speaker 5: I mean that's the textbook reaction company. Put a country

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Speaker 5: puts on a tariff, the currency tends to rise by

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Speaker 5: the amount of that tariff. So that could be a

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Speaker 5: factor already in the market. Pricing in a five percent

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Speaker 5: rise in tariffs. I think that's probably realistic. Maybe we

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Speaker 5: don't see much more beyond that, but maybe a more

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Speaker 5: stable dollar next year in.

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Speaker 4: Your global remit, Jeff, how do you think about Latin America.

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Speaker 5: You know, Latin America is still primarily a commodity based

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Speaker 5: part of the world, and so if we do see

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Speaker 5: a rise in manufacturing activity, we're starting to see some

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Speaker 5: signs of that. China's PMI ticked up a little bit here.

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Speaker 5: Maybe more commodity demand helps to support those Latin American economies,

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Speaker 5: but that's really crucial there.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about Japan?

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Speaker 6: I mean, let's go around the world here, right, I mean,

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Speaker 6: we saw a pretty big stimulus package last week, we

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Speaker 6: got the nineteenth coming up. I think the boj is

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Speaker 6: expected to hike rates. I mean, what do you think about,

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Speaker 6: you know, investing in Japan Japanese equity specifically.

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Speaker 5: I really like it. I think capital could start coming

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Speaker 5: back to Japan in a significant way as you start

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Speaker 5: to see the currency now beginning to appreciate a little

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Speaker 5: bit more. I think, you know, as we got through

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Speaker 5: this little bubble here around the election, I think you

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Speaker 5: start to see the end go up, the cost of

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Speaker 5: borrowing in yen going up, and that's critical to the

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Speaker 5: rest of the carry trade. Yeah, yeah, moving that back in.

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Speaker 5: Remember part of that carriy trade on winding was really

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Speaker 5: around futures that unwound for the most part. But all

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Speaker 5: the borrowing in yend from Japanese banks there's a trillion

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Speaker 5: of it according to the Bank for International Settlements. That's

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Speaker 5: probably still going to get repatriated at least some of

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Speaker 5: it over the course of the next year. So consider

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Speaker 5: that a rising tide for Japanese equities as well.

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Speaker 3: Where are you telling your clients to stay away? Where

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Speaker 3: are some aspects that you just don't like it.

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Speaker 5: I'm still worried about China not delivering enough, over promising

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Speaker 5: and under delivering on stimulus. So while valuations are very

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Speaker 5: low and we know they can bounce whenever there's a

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Speaker 5: new stimulus announcement, I'm still more attracted to other emerging

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Speaker 5: and developed markets than I am in the Chinese equity market.

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Speaker 6: Now, are you on up to two point six percent

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Speaker 6: this year? Stage a pretty sharp post election rally that

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Speaker 6: means weaker ran Nimbi talk to us a little bit

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Speaker 6: about property structor weakness there about more importantly Chinese deflation,

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Speaker 6: whether you expect it to persist as we head into

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Speaker 6: the new year.

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Speaker 5: Oh yeah, this is this is the biggest problem there

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Speaker 5: and I don't see that turning ground anytime soon. Again,

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Speaker 5: just not delivering stimulus. President she is still focused on

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Speaker 5: strategic initiatives, semiconductor self sufficiency, a green tech self sufficiency,

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Speaker 5: and not really focusing on delivering stimulus to the consumer

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Speaker 5: or a housing doesn't want to see capital go back

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Speaker 5: in as it investible. I think with a long enough

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Speaker 5: time horizon it is. But watch out, twenty twenty five

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Speaker 5: made up rule the China investor.

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Speaker 4: So what's the if you guys, you're sitting down with

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Speaker 4: your team here these days, what's kind of ther you

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Speaker 4: think your best, your smartest idea maybe a little non

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Speaker 4: consensus kind of thing.

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Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I have to say Europe, I mean,

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Speaker 5: you know, I mean, in the face of what's been

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Speaker 5: going on, particularly post election, looking at the idea that

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Speaker 5: Europe could accelerate next year. You know, in Q three

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Speaker 5: that just reported Q three earnings for European companies exceeded

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Speaker 5: those for US companies, first time we saw that in

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Speaker 5: five quarters. So I think that's a sign of things

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Speaker 5: to come. This rotation to financials, which make up much

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Speaker 5: larger share of the European equity market than in the US.

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Speaker 5: All these things I think, pointing to a surprise outperformance

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Speaker 5: by international particularly European equities there.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, but Jeff, you know I got to say this.

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Speaker 6: You know, the biggest conviction trade in FX land is

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Speaker 6: a short euro, right. I mean, so talk to me

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Speaker 6: about how you invest in Europe? Do you do it

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Speaker 6: on an FX hedge basis? I mean, do you have

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Speaker 6: to worry about the currency there?

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Speaker 5: I think you have to worry a little bit about

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Speaker 5: the currency there. But again, our outlook is more stability

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Speaker 5: in the dollar rather than an ongoing rise. But you know,

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Speaker 5: if you look back to twenty seventeen, widely expected to

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Speaker 5: hear the dollar would rally, it actually fell in twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 5: And maybe the Trump administration's policy is for a weaker

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Speaker 5: dollar to support you as manufacturing. So we'll have to see.

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Speaker 3: What do you think, Damian, where do you think the

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Speaker 3: euro goes? What's the call in your.

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Speaker 6: I think you got to watch euro yen here, I mean,

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Speaker 6: I think, I mean everything I'm reading from all the

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Speaker 6: experts who are far smarter than I am, are talking

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Speaker 6: weaker euro yen meaning weaker euro, stronger Japanese yen. And

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Speaker 6: you know it makes sense fundamentally. Whether or not the

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Speaker 6: market's agree is a whole different story. But I mean, Jeff,

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Speaker 6: I just have to thank you. I mean, we've been

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Speaker 6: pitching you fastballs here. I mean, these are not softball questions,

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Speaker 6: and I am loving this. I mean, we could do

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Speaker 6: this all day ball.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, when I started in All Wall Street

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Speaker 4: in the mid eighties, you had to do.

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Speaker 3: A tour of duty and Jap and had to. Now

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Speaker 3: for a generation, we've forgotten about Japan, but now it's

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Speaker 3: coming back.

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Speaker 5: It's finally back. Hey, finally last year, you know, across

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Speaker 5: in sineteen eighty nine peak again. So yeah, what's old

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Speaker 5: is new again?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, what's old is new again?

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Speaker 4: Absolutely right, Jeff, Jeff Client, top chief Global investment strategist,

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Speaker 4: Charles Schwap, thanks so much for joining us.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on

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Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app,

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Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: A lot of.

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Speaker 4: News flow coming out of Washington, DC, coming out of

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Speaker 4: Marrow Lago. Ye kind of the I guess the for

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Speaker 4: the president like Trump has been very active here. Let's

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Speaker 4: get kind of a lowdown on what's happening down there

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Speaker 4: on the political front here domestically. Heidi Krebo Redicker, Adjunct

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Speaker 4: Senior Fellow for the Council of Foreign Relations, How do

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Speaker 4: you think so much for joining us here?

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Speaker 3: You know, I love to just get your thoughts on.

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Speaker 4: I think that one of the bigger news items over

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Speaker 4: the past twenty four hours coming out of Washington was

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Speaker 4: the pardon of by President Biden of his son here A.

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Speaker 4: What did you make of that and what might be

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Speaker 4: the political fallout I guess going forward.

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Speaker 7: So I think you're seeing you're seeing it come out

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Speaker 7: in the news that and both Republicans and Democrats have

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Speaker 7: been have been quite critical of the move that President

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Speaker 7: Biden made. I think they are those who are are

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Speaker 7: very sympathetic to him, particularly his own family members. But

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Speaker 7: you know, this will we're it's early. We have to

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Speaker 7: see what the implications are for how some of the

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Speaker 7: personnel and implementation in the Justice in the Justice Department,

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Speaker 7: with the FBI and with some of the some of

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Speaker 7: the important I guess accusations of politicization of the legal

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Speaker 7: system are actually used as an excuse by President incoming

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Speaker 7: President Trump to actually take a harder line.

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Speaker 6: You know, Heidie, I don't have a Trump a truth

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Speaker 6: social account. But you know, last night I heard that

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Speaker 6: Trump was warning of all hell to pay of hamas

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Speaker 6: doesn't release hostages by January twentieth. I mean, do I

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Speaker 6: need a true social account. I mean, talk to me

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Speaker 6: about like how the newsflow out of the White House

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Speaker 6: is going to emanate for the better part of the

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Speaker 6: next four years.

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Speaker 7: So I mean with both foreign policy and domestic policy,

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Speaker 7: certainly for trade policy. It's a buckle your seat belt

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Speaker 7: time right now, because I think we're going to have

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Speaker 7: a bumpy ride at the incoming president and his new

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Speaker 7: cabinet and personnel are dealing with the world that is

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Speaker 7: much different than it was in Trump one point zero.

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Speaker 7: And this includes what you were talking about earlier, in

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Speaker 7: some instability both political and economic in the core of Europe.

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Speaker 7: At the same time, where you have Russia Ukraine, you

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Speaker 7: have you have the unraveling of the situation in the

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Speaker 7: Middle East, all eyes on whether or not the peace

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Speaker 7: between between Lebanon and his Bola and Israel actually managed

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Speaker 7: to manages to you know, to stay just below the

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Speaker 7: line of exploding and now you have Syria that you're

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Speaker 7: throwing into the mix on top of what is the

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Speaker 7: larger picture of the US competition with China. So it's

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Speaker 7: a big complicated world. And I think we have some

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Speaker 7: inexperienced government hands coming coming into the new administration.

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Speaker 4: So let's go to that point, Heidi, kind of let's

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Speaker 4: step back and take a look at some of the

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Speaker 4: cabinet nominees that.

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Speaker 3: Put forward by President Elect Trump.

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Speaker 4: What are your views on some of the ones that

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Speaker 4: presumably might have some challenges getting through Senate confirmation. How

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Speaker 4: do you think that how do you think the Senate's

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Speaker 4: going to really act here in terms of confirmation.

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Speaker 7: So there are definitely some challenging names out there, and

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Speaker 7: I think the the the background investigations that we all

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Speaker 7: are you used to in the context of going into

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Speaker 7: government were not actually done for some of some of

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Speaker 7: the ones that the press is going to be coming

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Speaker 7: out with stories over over the coming days and weeks

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Speaker 7: that will likely be pretty unflattering for a couple a

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Speaker 7: couple of the nominees, particularly for Defense and for Attorney

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Speaker 7: General and uh and I think, you know, Telsea Gabbard

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Speaker 7: in particular, is one that I would I would keep

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Speaker 7: an eye on because she's been criticized by her own

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Speaker 7: party as being treasonous. That were being used by by

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Speaker 7: some Republicans in the past about her to take over

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Speaker 7: an important role at d and I dealing with all

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Speaker 7: the intelligence agencies. On the economic side, I think you

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Speaker 7: have a much better story with with Treasury and with

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Speaker 7: with Kevin Hassett coming into the CEA role. The big

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Speaker 7: question mark and the topic for lots of Washington gossip

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Speaker 7: is sort of what happened to Bob Leithheiser, because the

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Speaker 7: rumors are that he's too scared to go big, and

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Speaker 7: that's you know, that set off all sorts of conversations

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Speaker 7: about is what is too big and why would Bob

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Speaker 7: be scared?

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Speaker 6: Right, Heidi, you know, I let's talk about Scott Besont,

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Speaker 6: you know, Trump's nominee for Treasury secretary. Let's talk about

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Speaker 6: the three three three Plan. I mean, the most important

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Speaker 6: part of which is reducing the federal budgets to three

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Speaker 6: percent of GDP.

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Speaker 1: Talk to us about fiscal discipline under a Trump administration.

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Speaker 8: It's going to be hard.

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Speaker 7: I think that there are a lot of contradictory ambitions

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Speaker 7: that President Elect Trump has coming into his second term,

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Speaker 7: and you know, the issue with the fiscal discipline and

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Speaker 7: anything that requires congressional you know, congressional action, is that

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Speaker 7: you have a very thin, very thin majority in the

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Speaker 7: House and you have a very very slim majority in

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Speaker 7: the Senate as well. So to get everybody on board

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Speaker 7: for the type of massive you know, the the renegotiation

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Speaker 7: of the of the Trump tax cuts from the last administration,

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Speaker 7: and and then some of the spending plans, where is

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Speaker 7: he going to get the funds to actually offset some

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Speaker 7: of the big the big you know, the big tax

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Speaker 7: extension of the tax cuts that he actually wants.

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Speaker 4: Heidi, what's your sense as to how the rest of

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Speaker 4: the world is planning on dealing with a second Trump administration,

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Speaker 4: whether it's our the folks we have some challenges with

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Speaker 4: like China as.

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Speaker 3: Well as our our allies around the world. What's the

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Speaker 3: approach you think they're going to take this time around.

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Speaker 7: So you've already seen early days, you've had a lot

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Speaker 7: of outreach from leaders around the world, not only congratulating

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Speaker 7: and coming President Trump, but also you going to spend

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Speaker 7: some time with him, particularly on the back of the

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Speaker 7: of the the rally, you know, the the throwing around

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Speaker 7: of the of the tariff threat to our closest allies

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Speaker 7: and trading partners to the north and south of US,

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Speaker 7: and so I think you're going to have You're going

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Speaker 7: to have a sit and wait and see with many

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Speaker 7: countries about what, you know, what it is they're going

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Speaker 7: to be able to to trade in order to have

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Speaker 7: tariff relief. But you know, taking a step even further

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Speaker 7: back Trump, I'm not sure if he understands exactly what

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Speaker 7: he wants to use tariffs for. So that is a

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Speaker 7: big question for for both allies. And you know, for China,

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Speaker 7: I think the the EU is probably going to deal

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Speaker 7: unless Chump overreaches, which he's always at a risk of doing.

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Speaker 7: I think Japan as well. China, I think is waiting

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Speaker 7: to see, but they'll push Backack.

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Speaker 4: Heidi Kriber Hticker, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Council Farm Relations, Thanks

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Speaker 4: so much for giving us some of your time. Here

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Speaker 4: is again the rest of the world resets for a

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Speaker 4: second at Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

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Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

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Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,

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Speaker 2: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Ifan Devit joins US senior Family Office strategist for Monetta Group,

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Speaker 4: It's been a.

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Speaker 3: While since we've chatted here.

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Speaker 4: I'd love to get your thoughts on if your views

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Speaker 4: over there at Medeta have changed in the last month, say,

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Speaker 4: since the US presidential election. We now have a much

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Speaker 4: different looking administration coming in a little bit different look

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Speaker 4: to the US Congress and what that means for policy.

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Speaker 4: Has that had any impact on kind of how you

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Speaker 4: guys look at the markets.

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Speaker 9: It's interesting. I'd say it's led to a hardening of

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Speaker 9: conviction around some of the trends that were really already

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Speaker 9: in place. We've been mapping the Trump trade since May.

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Speaker 9: It wasn't saying that we had certainty around the election outcome,

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Speaker 9: but I think it was pretty clear which sectors were

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Speaker 9: going to benefit. There was no surprise in the tariff rhetoric,

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Speaker 9: in any of the discussion around tax cuts. We know

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Speaker 9: about the America First foreign policy preference, so all of

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Speaker 9: that was very much something that we were stacking up for.

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Speaker 9: And now I'd say with the administration now pending. We

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Speaker 9: know that that's likely to harden, and I'd say, what

439
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,719
Speaker 9: we are starting to change a point of view around

440
00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,800
Speaker 9: is exactly the point of your previous discussion. Looking at

441
00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 9: outside the US, the US now represents seventy five percent

442
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 9: of the MSCI world. Any global allocation is US dominant.

443
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 9: It is this economic jugg or not that shows no

444
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:54,840
Speaker 9: signs of stopping, and the fundamentals look very weak outside

445
00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:58,600
Speaker 9: the US. So we generally have a well diversified international portfolio.

446
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 9: When it comes to equities, it's getting increasingly more difficult

447
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 9: to justify some of those non US holdings. We talked

448
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:07,640
Speaker 9: about Europe, but I'd say in emerging markets, you can't

449
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 9: see that area because the pile of towels that are

450
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 9: covering it. Everyone has thrown in the talel at this

451
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 9: point on emerging.

452
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 6: Markets, well, ifan, I'd love to talk to you about

453
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 6: emerging markets, but I can't take this, can't relinquish this

454
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:19,680
Speaker 6: opportunity to really ask you. I mean, look, let's talk

455
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,120
Speaker 6: about what family offices do You have really big ones

456
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 6: that can invest themselves directly into the markets, but most

457
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,200
Speaker 6: of them they invest with other managers. So talk to

458
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:30,080
Speaker 6: us about manager's skill. Talk to us about what strategies,

459
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 6: what sectors, where the racing manager depth. We're family offices

460
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 6: allocating their wealth today, very interesting question.

461
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:39,639
Speaker 9: Certainly, manager's skill is what we're looking for because we

462
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:41,400
Speaker 9: know that the beta, we know that the markets. We're

463
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 9: looking for that differentiated edge.

464
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 3: Now.

465
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 9: I will say that in the public markets arena, that

466
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 9: has been very much a pinning commodity right now, manager's

467
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 9: skilled to perform. Most most of family offices will choose

468
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 9: to get their public equity exposure in just through indoicays

469
00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,120
Speaker 9: and beta because it's increasingly hard to get that active management.

470
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 9: What we're seeing is a lot more focus on the alternatives,

471
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,640
Speaker 9: private credit. You spoke earlier about the deal and HPS

472
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 9: and how that is really that the hottest spot now

473
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 9: in alternatives is private credit. That's very interesting for families.

474
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 9: Contractual cash flows that are not related to market movements.

475
00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 9: We've seen a long interest in real assets, real estate,

476
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 9: some individual deals, private equity, venture capital, very kind of

477
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,719
Speaker 9: very much specific to that family's own set of values

478
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,640
Speaker 9: and their preferences and maybe their geographic location as well.

479
00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 6: And what about capacity with these managers? I mean, are

480
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,120
Speaker 6: we just talking cit adel point seventy two millennium. Elliott,

481
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 6: I mean, are there plenty of managers out there that

482
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 6: you can get capacity with for your smaller midsized family offices.

483
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 9: It's a really good question, and i'd say that actually,

484
00:22:43,480 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 9: what's improved with the recent wave of democratization of alternatives

485
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 9: we have a lot more platforms out there now, is

486
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 9: actually the entry level the bite size is getting a

487
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 9: lot smaller. In some cases that would have been a

488
00:22:54,119 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 9: ten five or ten million minimum, And even though family

489
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,919
Speaker 9: offices can be substantial, they are not at that kind

490
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,480
Speaker 9: of endowment size whereby a single manager could get five million.

491
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,840
Speaker 9: But now that those ticket sizes are coming down, that's

492
00:23:04,880 --> 00:23:08,240
Speaker 9: become very interesting. But actually capacities, particularly the hedge fund arena,

493
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 9: is much less of an issue than it used to

494
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 9: be before. I'd say private capital. There is a desire

495
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 9: to diversify a client base, so family offices are really

496
00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 9: attractive for that reason. So a lot more movement into

497
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,600
Speaker 9: having this multiple tickets.

498
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 4: Even we've had here in the US markets twenty percent

499
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 4: plus gains over the each of the past two years.

500
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 4: How are you kind of positioning twenty twenty five for

501
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 4: your clients?

502
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 9: Well, I think it sounds a little bit uninteresting, but

503
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 9: more of the same in the sense that we are

504
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 9: Our conviction, as I said, has been tested around thinking

505
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 9: like non US investing, but when it comes to US investing,

506
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 9: we do believe in a broad based portfolio. We've been

507
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:45,119
Speaker 9: aware that the tech team has dominated, and certainly the

508
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 9: momentum has been there, but we also feel that having

509
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,879
Speaker 9: this exposure across small and mid cap that's going to

510
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 9: come into play when tariffs come into effect. We think

511
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 9: that that will benefit from if there are tariffs on imports,

512
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,439
Speaker 9: less reliance in imports. So all of that's pretty much

513
00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,920
Speaker 9: the same. I'd say in terms of the cash as

514
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 9: interest rates come down, which we expect them to do,

515
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,399
Speaker 9: it won't be as attractive to whole cash bombs. We're

516
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 9: going to have to be a lot more selective there

517
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 9: and otherwise focusing on these alternatives kind of one at

518
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 9: a time, looking at what comes up, be having an

519
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 9: open door approach, which we always do to new ideas.

520
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 3: Ethan, thank you so much for joining us.

521
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 4: Ethan Devitch, She's a senior family office strategist for a

522
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 4: Meneta Group.

523
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:30,360
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

524
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

525
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

526
00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

527
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: Bloomberg terminal.

528
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 4: All right, folks, your daily look at their front pages

529
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 4: from around the world and Lisa Mittel newspapers, what do

530
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 4: you have for us?

531
00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 8: All right, since you were talking sports, I want to

532
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:47,920
Speaker 8: start there.

533
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:48,200
Speaker 3: Okay.

534
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 10: The president of TKO Group, that's the one who owns

535
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 10: Ultimate Fighting, World Wrestling Entertainment. So he tells the Financial

536
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 10: Times that sports fans want more. They want super access.

537
00:24:58,640 --> 00:24:58,920
Speaker 1: Okay.

538
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 10: They don't just want to sit there like Damien with

539
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 10: a hot dog and that's it.

540
00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:03,120
Speaker 8: Okay, they want more.

541
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 10: They want special treatment, they want to take pictures with

542
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 10: the athletes, they want exclusive access experiences. So because of that,

543
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 10: the president was telling the Financial Times they have to

544
00:25:13,320 --> 00:25:16,280
Speaker 10: do different things. But you remember back in October, Tikyo

545
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 10: said they were buying sports agency IMG hospitality business on locations,

546
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,800
Speaker 10: which is key to give them those experiences. So they're

547
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 10: making all these changes. They're also seeing that potential for

548
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 10: live events. Of course, Netflix WWE's flash of Weekly Show

549
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 10: Raw it's going to be in January in the US,

550
00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:33,800
Speaker 10: So you're starting to see these changes.

551
00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 8: But I don't know, Damon, do you have that?

552
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 10: You know?

553
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,400
Speaker 8: Do you want more as a sports fan?

554
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,040
Speaker 6: Well, I'm gonna tell Mark Shapaire with the UFC and

555
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,080
Speaker 6: what fighting championships need they need body cameras. When I'm

556
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 6: watching from home, I want to be right in there grappling.

557
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 6: I want to when you sweep the leg. I need

558
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 6: to be a part of it. Of course, of course, now,

559
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 6: but I get it. You know, it's all about keeping

560
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 6: all of the fans and the audiences at these arenas,

561
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 6: at these ballparks, at these stadiums from six in the morning.

562
00:25:57,920 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 1: Till eleven at night. You know, you don't want them

563
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: to leave. So so I get it.

564
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 3: I got it.

565
00:26:01,800 --> 00:26:05,439
Speaker 4: TKO Group Holdings publicly traded company. TKO is a ticker

566
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 4: twenty three billion dollar market cap. Stocks up sixty five

567
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 4: percent today. I mean, just extraordinary. That's where that's where

568
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 4: the growth is. So uh And they say, you know,

569
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 4: the Shapiro guy, the head who runs this thing. Half

570
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 4: of our fan base is in the demo of eighteen

571
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 4: to thirty four.

572
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I believe it. Got to get them. On Bloomberg

573
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: Business Sports with Michael Barr exactly.

574
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not in that demo, but I'll take your

575
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 4: word for Financial Times.

576
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 10: What else you got, Okay, I'm not sure if you've

577
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,360
Speaker 10: been to a Subway location lately, but there's a lot

578
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,360
Speaker 10: of controversy. A lot of its franchise owners. They're fed up,

579
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:39,480
Speaker 10: they've had it. You had a lawyer for a few

580
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 10: of those franchise owners who spoke with The New York Post,

581
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 10: and they say that the subway has really ignored their

582
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 10: screams for help.

583
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 8: They say they're at risk of being gobbled up by

584
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,719
Speaker 8: Jersey Mikes. They're they're worried about it.

585
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:52,160
Speaker 10: You think about it, Jersey Mike's has about three loud

586
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 10: three thousand locations. Subway has about twenty thousand.

587
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 3: And by the way, Subway is the most.

588
00:26:56,640 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 4: They have the most locations of any fast food place,

589
00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: more than an okay, of any fast food They're everywhere.

590
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,320
Speaker 3: I mean, you go everywhere around the world, there's a

591
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 3: Subway there.

592
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:04,440
Speaker 8: And it's true.

593
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,960
Speaker 10: But if you notice recently, they've been shrinking, like they

594
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 10: shrunk about fifteen percent over the past four years. And

595
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,440
Speaker 10: the lawyer for these for these Subway franchising not it's

596
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 10: they're being asked for other things. They're being forced to

597
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 10: remodel restaurants, they're being forced to, you know, pay these

598
00:27:18,800 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 10: technology fees and all these things are adding up and

599
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 10: they're just not making the money that they want.

600
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 6: Two words for you, Danny de Vito, I mean I

601
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 6: wonder what he alone is responsible for Jersey Mike Sales.

602
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 6: I mean he is the face of that franchise. And

603
00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 6: that's what Subway needs. They need a Danny de Vito.

604
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:33,640
Speaker 3: Because he is a Jersey guy.

605
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,280
Speaker 4: He's a Jersey Jersey and the you know, the Jersey

606
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 4: Mike's found it Point Pleasant, New Jersey. Now it's headquartered

607
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,240
Speaker 4: in Manasquan, New Jersey.

608
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 3: But it's fast, yeah, it is. It's it is amazing.

609
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,040
Speaker 4: But this I do go to Subway occasionally. There's one

610
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 4: on Electionton Avenue, but it's it's grim when you walk in.

611
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,080
Speaker 3: It's just not a great environment. And I think that's

612
00:27:53,160 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 3: representative of.

613
00:27:54,840 --> 00:27:57,280
Speaker 10: It's not the freshly sliced No.

614
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 5: No, it is not so.

615
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 3: But it's got a you know, if your franchise owner,

616
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 3: you need some help there.

617
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 10: It's a tough time, it is, all right, So we

618
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 10: go from fast food to fine dining. Okay, so a

619
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 10: lot more restaurants.

620
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 8: I'm not sure if you've noticed this.

621
00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:12,000
Speaker 10: They're starting to, you know, fatten your check totals with

622
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 10: these tiny little appetizer. They're like bite size, like this

623
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 10: big if you're on YouTube, okay, no smaller than top us.

624
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 10: It takes you just pick it and your stuff it

625
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 10: in your mouth and it's done, and that's the end

626
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:22,280
Speaker 10: of it.

627
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 8: But the thing is, it costs like twenty to thirty

628
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,560
Speaker 8: dollars each for these little bite sized things. I mean

629
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 8: it's topped with caviaar.

630
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 10: Maybe they use yub from but one restaurant, okay, a

631
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 10: single chicken nugget top with truffle will run you thirty dollars.

632
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 8: So that's to give you an example.

633
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 10: The reason why, as they're saying, diners like the novelty,

634
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,040
Speaker 10: it's a social media hype behind it, you know, all

635
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 10: these influencers posting about it, but also o zembic weight

636
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 10: loss drugs, people are eating less, they want to eat less,

637
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 10: so they want these smaller portions and they still want

638
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 10: the restaurant experience, so they're willing to pay for it.

639
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 10: But it's kind of paying off for these restaurants because

640
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,240
Speaker 10: the check totals are starting to add up. You know,

641
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 10: you add one, two, three for of these little tiny

642
00:29:02,520 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 10: bites and you know, before you know it, your check

643
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 10: tonal is a little bit more than your thought.

644
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is epic.

645
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,080
Speaker 3: Thing is real, it is.

646
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: I mean, the ladies in my town look fantastic.

647
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 6: I'm not kidding you. I mean they've lost so much weight,

648
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 6: and I mean I get it. You know, they just

649
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 6: you know, the drug you just you can't eat, you

650
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 6: can't keep it down.

651
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 3: Well, I mean the side effect is nausea constant.

652
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,239
Speaker 4: So if they can fix that, Yeah, when they get

653
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:27,280
Speaker 4: the oral application of some of these weight lostrucks, then

654
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 4: they're going to have something.

655
00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 1: That's another drug to take care of the nausea. That way,

656
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 1: that's two for one exactly.

657
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 3: All right.

658
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 10: Lastly, this is the season, right, you're getting all these

659
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 10: packages on your porch, but the problem is that thieves

660
00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,320
Speaker 10: are going on your porch and they're taking them. You

661
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 10: got the porch pirates right in full effect. So now

662
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:46,239
Speaker 10: what some companies are doing, like people have tried. You

663
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 10: try the high tech gadgets, right, you do the ring cameras,

664
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 10: and you try to do that.

665
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 4: So I can watch somebody still you can watch it exactly.

666
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 10: You can buy four hundred dollars lockers and the person

667
00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 10: can put the you know in the locker. Some actually

668
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 10: tailors will reimburse you, like Amazon does that. I know

669
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 10: that if something stolen they'll replace it.

670
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 8: But now you can buy insurance for it. So this

671
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 8: is the new thing.

672
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 10: Is this company called porch Pal, subscription based startup. It'll

673
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 10: cover the cost of your stolen packages. How much will

674
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 10: it cost. It's going to cost you one hundred and

675
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 10: twenty dollars a year. It'll cover up to two thousand

676
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 10: dollars of deliveries or up to three claims a year.

677
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 10: So basically, you get this credit card, it's linked to

678
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 10: the account and all deliveries that are paid with that card,

679
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 10: including groceries and takeout are covered under that. So it's

680
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 10: will Are you willing to pay that in order to

681
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 10: have your packages secured?

682
00:30:37,400 --> 00:30:39,479
Speaker 8: I guess is a way to think about it.

683
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 6: But I'm at your location in geography has a lot

684
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,080
Speaker 6: of yeah with it, and you know I would never

685
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:45,960
Speaker 6: pay that, right, you know, I mean probably for me.

686
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 6: The cost of the time, the timehead of trying to

687
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,920
Speaker 6: clean a lost package with the whippery is enough, right,

688
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 6: So so for me, I guess you know, I wouldn't.

689
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 6: It doesn't make sense, but I get it. If you're

690
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 6: in a not so nice neighborhood, you know, and people

691
00:30:58,200 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 6: steal from your front door, then yeah maybe.

692
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 4: Wall Street Journal reporting nearly half of buyers can expect

693
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,560
Speaker 4: to be hit at least once by porch pirates during

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00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 4: this holiday season.

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00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: Lisa Mitteo, Thank you so much. Newspapers with Lisa Mittello.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

697
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:18,880
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698
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,040
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699
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,960
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700
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,280
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00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,000
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