WEBVTT - What We Oughta Be Worrying About. Ian Bremmer Talks to A&G 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:02.560 The fabulous Ian Bremmer and what we all ought to 0:00:02.600 --> 0:00:05.359 be worrying about. It's Armstrong and Getty extra large. 0:00:05.880 --> 0:00:07.960 Because four hours simply. 0:00:09.400 --> 0:00:14.120 This is Armstrong and Getty extra large. So Ian, we're 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.360 making this part of our podcast. The highlights will air 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:17.880 on the radio show are. 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:20.000 The reason we've had to put you on the podcast 0:00:20.040 --> 0:00:22.480 is because of your merchant Marine foul mouth. I don't 0:00:22.520 --> 0:00:26.279 know if you remember this from years ago. Play the clip, Michael, Yes, 0:00:26.440 --> 0:00:29.160 you dropped an S bomb on our radio show, nearly 0:00:29.200 --> 0:00:30.400 causing us to lose their jobs. 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:33.319 You have no self control. So now we're on. Now 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:34.320 we're on the podcast. 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.040 Wow I want. 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:40.160 Does that mean I can say whatever I want? 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:42.120 You can say shit shit shit? Yes, you're in good 0:00:42.120 --> 0:00:42.760 shape Mouth. 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:47.440 I think you're better than that. But feel free also, 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:49.680 And before we get started in earnest, I don't know 0:00:49.680 --> 0:00:51.239 if you remember this, Ian, but we have a bit 0:00:51.280 --> 0:00:52.320 of unfinished business. 0:00:52.800 --> 0:00:54.440 I remember one half of this. 0:00:54.800 --> 0:00:55.080 Bet. 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:59.000 I bet you my thumbs that Joseph R. Biden would 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:03.040 not be the cannon date in November. I can't remember 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:05.200 if you put anything up, but I'm glad I get 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:06.280 to keep my thumbs. 0:01:06.959 --> 0:01:08.400 I'm glad you get to keep your thumbs. 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:12.319 It was such an embarrassment and so clear that he 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:14.399 should have stepped down so much. 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:15.199 Earlier than he had. 0:01:16.360 --> 0:01:23.720 And you know, the idea that he he somehow voluntarily, 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.240 you know, sort of for the grace of the country abdicated, 0:01:27.319 --> 0:01:31.440 of course, is crazy. He was basically utterly forced and 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:34.039 still was dragging his feet at the very last day. 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:36.200 It was not a great moment for the country. 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.160 Well about you, But as a fan of a history, 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:39.679 I can't wait to read the books that are going 0:01:39.720 --> 0:01:42.040 to be written about a lot of that decision making 0:01:42.120 --> 0:01:44.120 and behind the scenes and people who knew and what 0:01:44.160 --> 0:01:45.800 they knew and what they saw and didn't say, And 0:01:45.959 --> 0:01:48.560 it's going to be unbelievable over the next twenty five 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:49.360 years to read it. 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:49.680 Sure. 0:01:49.840 --> 0:01:53.960 Yeah, George Clooney apparently had the inside information. 0:01:54.440 --> 0:01:56.520 Yeah, no kidding, and was in charge. 0:01:56.680 --> 0:01:59.840 So Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group also its founder 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:02.840 political risk research and consulting firm, and every year they 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:06.600 put up put out the list of global risks which agreed, 0:02:06.640 --> 0:02:09.000 disagree are both. Is just always such a great and 0:02:09.040 --> 0:02:13.440 interesting read and we look forward to chatting with you 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:16.920 about it. Ian. Your first risk is funny because we 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.240 get your newsletter, the G zero, the email every day 0:02:20.919 --> 0:02:23.160 or whatever you put it up. It hadn't occurred to 0:02:23.200 --> 0:02:25.720 me to ask, what does G zero mean? Well, your 0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.800 risk number one is the G zero wins. What are 0:02:28.840 --> 0:02:29.720 we talking about. 0:02:31.000 --> 0:02:33.760 We're talking about the law of the jungle, right, We're 0:02:33.800 --> 0:02:36.400 talking which which, by the way, the jungle is a 0:02:36.440 --> 0:02:39.920 great place for an apex predator, but it's not so 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:43.079 great if you're weak and not and don't have a 0:02:43.120 --> 0:02:43.800 strong government. 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:47.120 And that's what we're seeing play out. We're seeing the. 0:02:47.160 --> 0:02:54.120 United States embrace unilateralism, reject global rule of law, reject 0:02:54.120 --> 0:02:57.280 the idea of being the world's policeman or the architect 0:02:57.320 --> 0:03:01.240 of free trade or the promoter of democracy, and instead 0:03:01.360 --> 0:03:02.320 say we're going to. 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:04.000 Do things the way we want to. 0:03:04.480 --> 0:03:07.680 You guys are weaker, and you better get along with that. 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:13.120 And both America's adversaries and its allies are a lot 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:18.040 weaker right now, economically, technologically, militarily, and also in terms 0:03:18.040 --> 0:03:19.680 of their governments just in trouble. 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:20.640 Right. Look at South. 0:03:20.520 --> 0:03:24.760 Korea and Germany and France and Canada these days. I mean, 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.080 this is a this is a really interesting time to 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:30.519 be someone like Donald Trump coming into power and saying 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:32.200 I'm going to use that power, and I'm going to 0:03:32.320 --> 0:03:36.680 use it in ways it's going to force you to acquiesce. 0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:39.960 So ajzero world is a very volatile it's. 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:45.640 A very unstable world, and it's one that comes from 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:51.800 the Americans and some allies no longer willing to play 0:03:51.840 --> 0:03:53.920 the role they had been. 0:03:53.720 --> 0:03:56.320 Told to in the world over over decades. 0:03:56.360 --> 0:03:59.839 It's come from Russia not being integrated with the West, 0:04:00.000 --> 0:04:03.480 being angry at the US about that, and alliging with 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:06.440 chaos actors like North Korea. And it's come from China 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.720 that was integrated into the global economy, but on the 0:04:09.760 --> 0:04:14.720 presumption that as that happened, they would become more westlike, 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:18.840 you know, more political, open reforms, rule of law, free market. 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:21.919 None of that happened, and now the US is angry 0:04:21.920 --> 0:04:24.599 about it. So you put those things together and you 0:04:24.680 --> 0:04:29.720 get this geopolitical disorder, which is pretty unique, and it's 0:04:29.760 --> 0:04:32.880 pretty unique for a country that created a global order 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:34.720 to start taking its own order apart. 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.080 And that's what we're living through in twenty twenty five. 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:39.400 Nice job not cursing during that answer, by the way, 0:04:39.400 --> 0:04:44.880 good self control. So even if Kamala Harris had won. 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:47.240 Even before we go into the future, where do you 0:04:47.440 --> 0:04:51.960 rank the lack of world order compared to recent history. 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:54.520 I remember I heard hearing Henry Is Kissinger talk about 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:56.240 it back when he was alive. He thought we were 0:04:56.279 --> 0:05:00.039 at a pretty bad point. We are slash were. 0:05:02.560 --> 0:05:06.560 I think that again, bad point depends on whose perspective 0:05:06.640 --> 0:05:09.680 you're taking the I think the United States is going 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:12.039 to get a lot of wins in this environment. We 0:05:12.080 --> 0:05:14.760 say that this is the most dangerous period since the thirties, 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.880 but you know, there was a lot of appeasement going 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:20.000 on in the thirties. There's a lot of appeasement that's 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.240 going to happen in twenty twenty five. I mean, Mark 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:26.640 Zuckerberg looked like he was appeasing yesterday, right, And if 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:29.000 you think that he's in a weak position, you haven't 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:31.880 been talking to the Canadians or the Danes in the 0:05:31.960 --> 0:05:33.239 last forty eight hours. 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:35.640 I think the United States is actually going to get 0:05:35.680 --> 0:05:37.880 a lot of wins in the early days. 0:05:37.880 --> 0:05:41.480 But it's going to be unnerving for people that feel 0:05:41.520 --> 0:05:45.320 like they're being targeted. It's unnerving for countries that feel 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:48.240 like they're on the wrong side of this, and that's 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:52.919 going to lead to a lot of fragmentation and a 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.600 lot of hedging around the world. But the funny thing 0:05:55.640 --> 0:05:57.880 is when we talked about this last year, you and I, 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.560 you know, we were were about these big wars that 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:05.240 were going on in the Middle East, in Ukraine, and 0:06:05.760 --> 0:06:08.200 even the growing fighting happening inside the United States. 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.320 And the interesting thing about twenty twenty five is that 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.480 all of those wars are receding. Right. 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.520 It's a good chance that the Middle East wars are 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:20.160 going to be fought less strongly than they were, in 0:06:20.279 --> 0:06:22.560 part because the Israelis don't have much more to hit 0:06:22.600 --> 0:06:27.359 when it comes to Hamas. Secondly, in the Middle in Russia, Ukraine, 0:06:27.400 --> 0:06:30.560 there's a good likelihood we're going to get a ceasefire 0:06:30.760 --> 0:06:32.920 over the course of the year. And in the US, 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:36.480 despite all of the fighting over the elections, the fact 0:06:36.600 --> 0:06:39.680 is that nobody thinks that Trump stole it. 0:06:39.680 --> 0:06:41.760 It was free, it was fair, it wasn't rigged. 0:06:41.760 --> 0:06:44.279 And whether you like Trump or not, you recognize, yeah, 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:47.400 he won the presidency, he's going to mandate. So those 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.239 things that were bothering us so much in twenty twenty 0:06:50.240 --> 0:06:52.479 four and played out over twenty twenty four in ways 0:06:52.520 --> 0:06:55.520 that we're very damaging for twenty twenty five have actually 0:06:56.040 --> 0:07:00.120 started to started to hit the rear view mirror so well. 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:03.440 Not only am I one of the great prognosticators of 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:05.880 our time or any other ian, I'm also willing to 0:07:05.920 --> 0:07:10.200 offer my services to go abroad and explain Trump's negotiating style, 0:07:10.440 --> 0:07:12.600 because I see on your list of risks several of 0:07:12.640 --> 0:07:15.400 them are related to Trump's governing style, whether the checks 0:07:15.400 --> 0:07:18.720 and balances of the American system will hold, whether alliances 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:22.000 will hold. And you know, I look back to his 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:25.480 first term and he has said some outrageous things about 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:29.880 NATO that bothered me. I don't particularly appreciate his negotiating style, 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.000 but the threats to like disband NATO or let anybody 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.200 attack him or whatever, I found wildly inappropriate. But the 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:41.960 net result was a stronger, more responsible NATO in terms 0:07:41.960 --> 0:07:43.360 of self funding. 0:07:44.240 --> 0:07:47.840 Absolutely and when he said that Mexico was going to 0:07:47.880 --> 0:07:50.720 build a wall and pay for it, they paid for 0:07:50.840 --> 0:07:54.760 absolutely nothing on the border, but they did strengthen their 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.400 own border security in the South, which led to far 0:07:57.520 --> 0:08:01.600 fewer illegal immigrants going through Mexico into the United States 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:02.760 under the Trump administration. 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:03.760 Couldn't agree with you more. 0:08:04.160 --> 0:08:07.800 That is super interesting, And I would also cite China 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:10.800 where Trump was maybe you know, more blunt and hard 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.280 ass than he needed to be, but that relationship really 0:08:13.280 --> 0:08:15.160 need to be turned around. How do you see that 0:08:15.360 --> 0:08:19.280 progressing this year? The US China breakdown as you put it. 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:24.160 Let me say first broadly that Trump is because he's 0:08:24.160 --> 0:08:28.440 in a much stronger position internationally because power is relational 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.960 this time around, and also because he's in a much 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:35.160 stronger position domestically. He's got the House, he's got the Senate, 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:38.199 but he also has the entire GOP that recognizes they 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:42.160 need him and all of his appointees a loyalist that 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.160 you don't see any Nicky Haley's or Mike Pompeo's or 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:49.440 mad Dog Matis's in this bunch. People are not going 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:52.720 to be able to get around him to try to 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:54.280 moderate his impulses. 0:08:54.760 --> 0:08:58.360 So that's going to lead to Trump being able to 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:00.200 do more of what he wants to do. 0:09:00.880 --> 0:09:03.240 And what he wants to do is not make Canada 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:05.600 the fifty first state, but he does want to change 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:09.280 the nature of US trade deficits with countries all over 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.880 the world. He wants to use tariffs to accomplish that. 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:13.760 He also wants to get rid of a lot of 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:15.760 illegal immigrants in the US deport them, and I think 0:09:15.760 --> 0:09:18.520 he's going to do that too with China. 0:09:19.120 --> 0:09:20.000 That means that in. 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:23.000 The early weeks of this relationship, we are going to 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:26.520 see more tariffs from the United States against China. We're 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:30.559 going to see more export controls on semiconductors. And if 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.480 you look at the people that Trump has appointed, like 0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:38.240 Mike Waltz and Marco Arrubio, who I think are quite capable, 0:09:38.440 --> 0:09:42.720 and I'm known for a while, they're very hawkish on China. 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:46.040 They are people that are not trusted by the Chinese 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:50.840 to engage the way that say Jake Sullivan and some 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.800 of his team have been. So I think that the 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:57.320 relationship between the US and China, which has been comparatively 0:09:57.400 --> 0:10:00.680 well managed in the last year and and in a 0:10:00.679 --> 0:10:03.760 way that did not give away the store to the Chinese. So, 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:07.080 I mean, Democrats and Republicans largely think that Biden's done 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:08.480 a pretty good job on China. It's one of the 0:10:08.480 --> 0:10:11.440 few things they agree on when it comes to Biden's 0:10:11.440 --> 0:10:15.439 foreign policy. I suspect that's not going to hold. It's 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.959 going to break down and so we will start slipping 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:21.320 into an active trade war between the US China, and 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.719 we'll see more of an act of decoupling between the 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:26.640 two economies than we've presently had. 0:10:27.520 --> 0:10:27.760 Wow. 0:10:27.800 --> 0:10:29.839 Do you think at some point like Apple can't make 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:31.520 phones there anymore and that sort of thing. 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:33.760 I think that's already happening. 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.160 We already see Apple putting a lot more money into 0:10:37.440 --> 0:10:39.720 India and to Vietnam and to Indonesia. 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:42.719 Now some of that is not political. 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:45.840 Some of that is because the Chinese economy is really underperforming. 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:49.760 Hijinping has made it tougher for the private sector. He's 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.840 supported state owned enterprises, and consumer sentiment in China has 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:57.160 fallen off a cliff, so people aren't buying as much. 0:10:57.480 --> 0:11:00.000 They're not they're they're keeping money in savings because they 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.320 don't really trust the Chinese government to be able to 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.760 perform the way they had. Some of that was the 0:11:04.800 --> 0:11:07.760 pandemic in zero COVID too, which they handled. 0:11:07.360 --> 0:11:08.760 Really badly in my view. 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:13.480 And so when you talk to Western multinationals about China, 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:17.959 they're saying, we're reducing our exposure, we're firing people, we're 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.280 ending strategic partnerships. Then you add on top of that, 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:22.880 Trump saying I'm going to come in and put a 0:11:22.880 --> 0:11:25.520 sixty percent tariff across the board, and even if you 0:11:25.600 --> 0:11:30.120 expect that is exaggerated, and I do, it is hitting 0:11:30.240 --> 0:11:34.040 China at a time that frankly, no one's super excited 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:35.320 about spending more money there. 0:11:36.360 --> 0:11:39.040 You know, anybody who predicts the imminent downfall of the 0:11:39.120 --> 0:11:41.800 Chinese Communist Party as a fool. But they do have 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:47.840 unbelievable headwinds, including demographics. How bearish are you on China 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.760 and xesiin Ping in the medium to long term? 0:11:52.040 --> 0:11:53.800 Well, I mean in a sense. 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:57.800 The fact that chijin Ping reached out to India, had 0:11:57.840 --> 0:12:02.400 a two hour plus summit and and pulled back Chinese 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:06.200 troops from their contested border shows that China knows they've 0:12:06.200 --> 0:12:08.880 got big headwinds and they don't want a big crisis 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:09.680 with India. 0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.600 They reached out to Japan and asked for a summit. 0:12:12.679 --> 0:12:15.400 Usually it's the other way around, and they offered to 0:12:15.480 --> 0:12:19.120 start buying Japanese seafood, which just a few months ago 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.880 they said you can't sell here because it's all radioactive 0:12:21.920 --> 0:12:24.480 because of Fukushima. I've seen them do a lot of 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:27.280 this around the world, Now, some of this is because 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.520 they're worried about Trump and the uncertainty coming from the 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.920 US that they don't think they can manage. But some 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.120 of it is a recognition that they're in a bad position, 0:12:35.360 --> 0:12:41.400 and so frankly, it behooves them to stabilize these relations. 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:44.960 And that comes from a deep concern that you just 0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:45.760 asked about. 0:12:45.960 --> 0:12:49.000 Do I think they're about to fall? No, But I 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:50.080 mean they're demographics. 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.720 They're at what one point four billion people right now, 0:12:52.960 --> 0:12:58.080 and expectations for twenty one hundred, when you know, you 0:12:58.160 --> 0:13:02.360 and I are going to be pretty pretty geezerly is 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:06.560 that they're going to be down to five hundred million 0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:08.880 to seven hundred and fifty million. So I mean a 0:13:09.040 --> 0:13:13.720 significant I mean the biggest contraction of a population that 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.440 you would ever see in an economy outside of like. 0:13:17.640 --> 0:13:18.679 War or famine. 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:21.680 It's peacetime in China, and they're just saying, we just 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.000 don't want to have any kids, and there's nothing the 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.959 Chinese government can do about it. This is not a 0:13:27.520 --> 0:13:31.319 five year a ten year problem. Their retirement age for 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.800 men is fifty five. They can extend that for five 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.640 or ten years. They're not very urbanized. They can move 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:39.600 more people into cities. They can make agriculture more efficient, 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:42.120 they can lean into AI. There's a lot of things 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.000 they can do that can give them a ten year buffer, 0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.600 But they don't have a generational solution here, so long term, 0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:51.080 I think they're in very big trouble. 0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:51.719 Yeah. 0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:53.719 I don't know if you read David Sanger's book New 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.840 Cold Wars, but he opened yeah, great book, but he 0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.679 opened with the quote, which I think is underappreciated. When 0:13:59.679 --> 0:14:02.000 it was hot on a hot mic or on purpose, 0:14:02.040 --> 0:14:04.680 I don't know when she was talking to Putin before 0:14:04.679 --> 0:14:07.520 he got in the car and said basically, you know, 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:09.880 we're gonna change the world order. We're gonna drive, and 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:12.040 we are going to drive these big changes. Do you 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:13.959 think he's still focused on that or are think he's 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.600 gotten so tough internally that he can't be focused on 0:14:16.600 --> 0:14:17.120 that anymore. 0:14:18.240 --> 0:14:23.000 I think that he at a very minimum recognizes that 0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:28.200 the timing for such a statement, for such policies is inopportunite. 0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:32.080 I mean, when I was last in China two. 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:35.440 Months ago, two and a half months ago, they were 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:39.280 telling me that they've pushed out their projections of when 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:43.120 China would become the largest economy overtaking the US by 0:14:43.160 --> 0:14:47.800 five years, so they're not looking at being able to 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:52.680 take over Taiwan by twenty twenty nine the way that 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:57.400 many in the US included had expected was sort of coming. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:14:57.920 Now. 0:14:58.240 --> 0:15:02.760 Does that mean that she Ping actually believes that he 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:07.800 no longer is going to have the ultimately the world's 0:15:07.880 --> 0:15:13.360 leading economy, that his plans for global domination and artificial 0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.280 intelligence are going away. I wouldn't go that far, but 0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:19.960 I mean, he's not getting any younger. I mean, and 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.160 at some point kicking the can down the road does 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:27.720 become a strategic change of mind. I wouldn't dare to 0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:31.960 say how far in his personal mental processes he's traveled 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:35.200 along that road, but I mean he certainly started the path. 0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:39.760 He's no kid either, right, absolutely right. Risk number six 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:43.280 Iran on the ropes. They are a cornered beast. Are 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:45.520 they a dangerous cornered beast? 0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:50.720 I think less so what we have seen over the 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.720 last years, they've been hit pretty hard, particularly by Israel, 0:15:55.160 --> 0:16:00.280 and the response has been very little. You'll remember when 0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:08.920 the head of Hamasa's political division, their leader, was assassinated 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:13.960 by Israel on the day of the Iranian president's inauguration, 0:16:14.200 --> 0:16:19.360 in Tehran, and the Iranian response was essentially nothing. 0:16:20.080 --> 0:16:22.920 They didn't blow up Israel on the back of it. 0:16:22.960 --> 0:16:24.800 They didn't blow up Israel on the back of taking 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.760 out Hazbala, their most important proxy. 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:27.960 They didn't blow up. 0:16:27.880 --> 0:16:31.680 Israel on the back of launching a series of missiles 0:16:32.160 --> 0:16:36.480 against Iran. So I mean, I think the Iranians recognize 0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:40.280 that they've lost their deterrent capability and they just don't 0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:43.160 have an effective way to hit the United States or Israel, 0:16:43.200 --> 0:16:46.400 which has made them very cautious and very risk averse. Now, 0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:49.200 the one thing, of course, they could do, and President 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:51.560 Macron or France has been warning about this in the 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:55.920 past couple of days, is they could significantly ramp up 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.280 their dash to a nuclear bomb. 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:00.240 Okay, I was going to ask you about that. Is 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:02.080 Trump Israel? 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:04.440 From what I read the other day in some publication, 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:06.720 Israel can't do it on the realm, they'd need our help. 0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.200 Is Trump willing to help Israel take out their nuclear 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.359 facilities their bomb making program? 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:13.080 Can we do it? 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.160 There are certainly people around Trump that are coming into 0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:19.600 the administration that believe that is what the US should do, 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:24.280 that this is a historic opportunity to take out America 0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:28.840 and Israel's top enemy in the Middle East. 0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:30.800 Is Trump personally willing to do that. 0:17:30.920 --> 0:17:34.199 I mean, he's very reluctant to use military force. He 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:36.760 doesn't want to get involved in new wars. He's proud 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.800 of ending wars, not starting new ones. And he also 0:17:39.920 --> 0:17:44.040 knows that a war with Iran would lead to significantly 0:17:44.080 --> 0:17:46.320 high oil prices, though they're low right now and there's 0:17:46.320 --> 0:17:48.879 a lot of oil and reserve that's not being produced, 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.040 but it would certainly impact the stock market, all things 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:53.040 that he doesn't really like. 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:54.159 He took out Solem Mooney. 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:57.480 Look he did. 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.520 He did take out Solomoney, the head of the Iranian 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:03.720 defense for but he did it after months of Iranian 0:18:03.800 --> 0:18:08.159 strikes against Saudi Arabia, including their largest refinery in the world, 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:13.280 including the UAE, and including even American bases in the region. 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:16.680 And then finally he hit Sulimani assassinated him. 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:20.159 So again, I think it is possible. 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:23.640 I think at a minimum, Trump is going to put 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:28.040 much more pressure against Iran, including shutting down a lot 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:32.520 of these illegal, non flaged tankers that are helping Iran 0:18:32.600 --> 0:18:35.959 get oil out illegally, which the Chinese will not be happy. 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:37.880 With because they're the ones buying most of it. 0:18:38.800 --> 0:18:40.680 I think he'll do that, so he's gonna put Iran 0:18:40.760 --> 0:18:43.960 under a lot more economic pressure. Would he support nat 0:18:44.080 --> 0:18:47.520 YAHOO directly in strikes against the nuclear facilities? 0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:50.880 I think in the early days the answer is no, But. 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:53.680 I suspect if Iran started to go towards the bomb, 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:54.560 he probably would. 0:18:57.760 --> 0:18:59.600 That's gonna be an interesting one to follow because I 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:01.320 don't know what it's going to happen there. I've listened 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.439 to a bunch of different policy podcasts where people talk 0:19:03.440 --> 0:19:05.320 about it. A round's never going to be in a 0:19:05.359 --> 0:19:08.360 weaker state than they are right now, if not now when, So. 0:19:08.880 --> 0:19:10.880 That's right, that's a good one. Could happen, It could 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:11.440 easily happen. 0:19:11.560 --> 0:19:15.800 I think at the very least, US pressure economically much 0:19:15.840 --> 0:19:19.399 more meaningful. And the Israelis continuing to hit them with 0:19:19.680 --> 0:19:22.360 cyber espionage. 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:23.960 Hit the critical infrastructure assassinations. 0:19:24.440 --> 0:19:28.880 All of that is putting more pressure on the Iranian regime. 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:32.960 And they've lost their empire in the Middle East, they 0:19:33.000 --> 0:19:37.480 lost the axis of resistance, and now there's growing insurgency 0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:42.760 inside Iranian provinces too. So I mean, it's also plausible 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:46.639 that we would see internal regime change. I mean, you know, 0:19:46.840 --> 0:19:48.000 these things happened. 0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:49.240 Very slowly and then very quickly. 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.919 Yeah, no one expected Asad was going to suddenly fall 0:19:51.960 --> 0:19:56.159 after fifty years of dictatorship. And yet two weeks after 0:19:56.680 --> 0:20:00.000 the revolution started with some rebels, suddenly he was fleet 0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.480 being the Moscow where he awaited getting poisoned. 0:20:02.760 --> 0:20:05.120 Hey, it was it last year of the year before 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:08.399 you made some big AI predictions. Is AI further along 0:20:08.560 --> 0:20:10.400 then you thought it would be, or did you think 0:20:10.440 --> 0:20:11.480 it would be further along? 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:15.520 I think it's further along, And we've been pretty bullish 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:17.840 on AI, and yet we continue to be pretty as 0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:23.600 staggered by just how many use cases there are for 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:28.520 industrial innovation in every sector, every company around the world. 0:20:28.560 --> 0:20:31.879 We're pretty staggered by, you know, the fact that you know, 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:35.200 the touring test has basically been shattered, and that human 0:20:35.240 --> 0:20:37.600 beings engaging with boughts can no longer tell if it's 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:39.560 a boud or human being. In fact, the only way 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:42.159 you can really tell is because they're faster and smarter 0:20:42.640 --> 0:20:44.280