1
00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:09,880
Speaker 2: Joining us now, I'm very pleased to say is the

3
00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:13,600
Speaker 2: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassid, following the jobs report

4
00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:16,000
Speaker 2: earlier on this morning. Kevin, welcome to the program sir.

5
00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:18,000
Speaker 2: It's always great to get your thoughts. I just want

6
00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:19,640
Speaker 2: to take a beat and take a big step back

7
00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:21,760
Speaker 2: and just think about where we are and the moment

8
00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,000
Speaker 2: we're in. This is what we've heard from the administration

9
00:00:24,079 --> 00:00:26,320
Speaker 2: over the past few days. The President has said there

10
00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,800
Speaker 2: will be a little short term interruption. The Treasury Secretary

11
00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:31,840
Speaker 2: Skoll Bess and spoke this morning, had said there's going

12
00:00:31,880 --> 00:00:34,519
Speaker 2: to be a detox period. You said last month the

13
00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:38,600
Speaker 2: jobs market was worse than market's thought. What exactly are you,

14
00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:42,400
Speaker 2: together with other officials and the president this administration, what

15
00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:43,480
Speaker 2: are you preparing us for.

16
00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:47,200
Speaker 3: Oh, we're preparing you for news like today the great

17
00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:47,920
Speaker 3: jobs report.

18
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:49,239
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that you.

19
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,160
Speaker 3: See if you look at it, is exactly the objectives

20
00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:53,880
Speaker 3: of the Trump administration, of the fact that even though

21
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:54,960
Speaker 3: we got a lot of work to do, we got

22
00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 3: to pass the tax cuts and get this deregulation train rollin,

23
00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,880
Speaker 3: is that we're going to be reducing government employment and

24
00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:06,760
Speaker 3: reducing government spending and increasing manufacturing employment. And as you

25
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:08,920
Speaker 3: can see in the jobs report today, you're already seeing

26
00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:10,640
Speaker 3: a pivot in that direction.

27
00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:11,960
Speaker 1: That's a huge one.

28
00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,600
Speaker 3: So last year, one hundred and eleven thousand manufacturing jobs

29
00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,720
Speaker 3: were destroyed by the Biden administration's policies. And in this

30
00:01:18,800 --> 00:01:21,919
Speaker 3: month alone, in February, we got ten thousand manufacturing jobs

31
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,440
Speaker 3: and nine thousand auto jobs. And as you know, those

32
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,040
Speaker 3: auto jobs are here, they're going to be paid well,

33
00:01:28,040 --> 00:01:30,120
Speaker 3: and they're here for a good long time. And that's

34
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,480
Speaker 3: really just sort of a down payment on the Trump

35
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:35,040
Speaker 3: policies that get a skyrocket into a golden AGUSUS we

36
00:01:35,040 --> 00:01:35,960
Speaker 3: get the tax cuts pass.

37
00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,640
Speaker 2: So, Kevin, I hope you're right. But what I've heard

38
00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:39,920
Speaker 2: over the last week or so regarded the Economics eights,

39
00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:42,640
Speaker 2: when I spoke to the COMMAS Secretary Hammard Lutnek, Secretary

40
00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,080
Speaker 2: Lutnik said that this was Biden data over the last month,

41
00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,080
Speaker 2: that this was not Trump data. So if it's good,

42
00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:49,880
Speaker 2: if it's is it Trump data? And if it's bad,

43
00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:51,680
Speaker 2: is it Biden data? How does this work?

44
00:01:52,800 --> 00:01:54,160
Speaker 1: Let's go into the specifics.

45
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:59,040
Speaker 3: So what specifically has happened is President Trump has made

46
00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,559
Speaker 3: a big effort, along with Elon Musk, to find workers

47
00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:03,960
Speaker 3: that are unproductive and to get them off the payrolls.

48
00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 3: So we see government spending going down. So is that

49
00:02:06,080 --> 00:02:06,840
Speaker 3: a Trump effect?

50
00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:07,120
Speaker 1: Yes?

51
00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,720
Speaker 3: Manufacturing, well, manufacturing, a job creation in the auto sector

52
00:02:11,960 --> 00:02:14,560
Speaker 3: is happening because people are anxious about future tariffs and

53
00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 3: they're already on shoring production.

54
00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:17,560
Speaker 1: Is that a Trump effect?

55
00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,400
Speaker 3: Yes, But it's true that we've inherit a lot of

56
00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:23,799
Speaker 3: terrible Biden policies. They want to get expensing go on

57
00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:25,720
Speaker 3: and so on, and that's bad for capital formation.

58
00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:26,760
Speaker 1: We're going to fix that.

59
00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:28,959
Speaker 3: So we haven't fixed everything, but already the things that

60
00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:30,320
Speaker 3: we're fixing you can see in the data, and I

61
00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:31,560
Speaker 3: think it's really quite remarkable.

62
00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,560
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about the manufacturing data as well. We

63
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 2: haven't that over the past few weeks. You're familiar with

64
00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,640
Speaker 2: ICM manufacturing. You're familiar, I'm sure with the respondents in

65
00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:40,400
Speaker 2: the surveys, and this is what they had to say.

66
00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:44,320
Speaker 2: The uncertainty about tariff keeps us cautious on spending. Customers

67
00:02:44,320 --> 00:02:46,640
Speaker 2: are pausing on new orders as a result of uncertainty

68
00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,760
Speaker 2: regarding tariffs. The incoming tarifts are causing our products to

69
00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,760
Speaker 2: increase in price. Are you hearing the same message from businesses?

70
00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:55,079
Speaker 2: Are you hearing something different?

71
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:58,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, what I'm hearing is a massive amount of onshoring.

72
00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:01,239
Speaker 3: We've got more of the and what a trillion and

73
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,079
Speaker 3: a half dollars in commitments for new factories, and you're

74
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,040
Speaker 3: already seeing it in the auto data. I mean, think

75
00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:08,880
Speaker 3: about it, how hard it is to create a job

76
00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,160
Speaker 3: in the auto sector. To have ten thousand in a

77
00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,720
Speaker 3: month means that the attempt to onshore activity, to make

78
00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 3: it so that the jobs are created here and the

79
00:03:16,639 --> 00:03:19,480
Speaker 3: money isn't just, you know, frittered away to foreign countries,

80
00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:21,400
Speaker 3: is exactly what President Trump's objective is.

81
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:22,840
Speaker 1: And it's right there in the data. Now.

82
00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,080
Speaker 3: I know that it's one month and the data can

83
00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,239
Speaker 3: blip around, but I was really really stunned. And the

84
00:03:27,320 --> 00:03:29,280
Speaker 3: other thing I was stunned about, which I know you

85
00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:31,680
Speaker 3: guys follow this a lot. In fact, you know, Anna

86
00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:34,480
Speaker 3: Wong at Bloomberg is one of the best young economists

87
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,080
Speaker 3: I know it looking at the numbers is that it

88
00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,200
Speaker 3: was a really bad flu season, and so when I

89
00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,080
Speaker 3: adjusted for the flu, what I thought this number was

90
00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:41,560
Speaker 3: going to be, it was way below the number that

91
00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,920
Speaker 3: we got, and so I was very positively surprised by

92
00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:45,600
Speaker 3: this number. Once you adjust for flu and then you

93
00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,640
Speaker 3: see that all the jobs, all these jobs that are

94
00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:50,720
Speaker 3: created and manufacturing. And finally, if you go back and

95
00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,480
Speaker 3: look at the Biden job record, mind flow the fact

96
00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,880
Speaker 3: that they revised it down a million jobs last year.

97
00:03:55,960 --> 00:03:57,800
Speaker 3: Don't forget that a lot of the job creation was

98
00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:00,360
Speaker 3: government workers. It wasent workers. About a core order of

99
00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:02,240
Speaker 3: the job creation over the last two years was an

100
00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:04,520
Speaker 3: increase in government workers. And so if you take those

101
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:06,920
Speaker 3: out and then still have a strong jobs number, that's

102
00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:08,960
Speaker 3: a great, great economic outcome.

103
00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:10,840
Speaker 2: I'm pleased you're in a good mood because that's refreshing,

104
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,360
Speaker 2: because I have to tell you, over the past week

105
00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:14,560
Speaker 2: or so, Wall Street is full of a lot of gloom.

106
00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:16,560
Speaker 2: Right now, Kevin, I'm sure you've heard some of it.

107
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:18,440
Speaker 2: So here's some of it for our audience that not

108
00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:22,120
Speaker 2: just for you. Barkley say, US recession no longer unthinkable

109
00:04:22,320 --> 00:04:25,920
Speaker 2: more can Stanley. This morning, dan Gredit growth forecast upgraded

110
00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:27,960
Speaker 2: the inflation outlook and this is the why this came

111
00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 2: from Deutsche Bank. Another talented economist Matlazetti considerable downside risk

112
00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:35,560
Speaker 2: of the growth outlook amounting trade policy uncertainty is hit

113
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,919
Speaker 2: historical levels, Financial conditions are tighter, sentiment indicators signal weaker

114
00:04:39,960 --> 00:04:43,360
Speaker 2: growth and more trade actions are likely to come. Kevin,

115
00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,680
Speaker 2: the people that we've been speaking to want clarity on trade.

116
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,760
Speaker 2: They want to understand that maybe in a month or

117
00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:51,400
Speaker 2: so this will be done. Whether the tariffs is ten, fifteen,

118
00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,800
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. When can they expect that much needed clarity.

119
00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:55,960
Speaker 1: Oh?

120
00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,360
Speaker 3: Absolutely, I think in some sense that you've got quite

121
00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:01,159
Speaker 3: a bit of clarity already. Oh, uncertainty. There's going to

122
00:05:01,160 --> 00:05:03,520
Speaker 3: be some tariff. It's going to be reciprocal. If you

123
00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:06,680
Speaker 3: don't like terifs very much, then reciprocal could be a

124
00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:08,880
Speaker 3: great thing for you, because then countries around.

125
00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:10,200
Speaker 1: The world will be lowering their tariffs.

126
00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:12,920
Speaker 3: But the President believes that if we replace income tax

127
00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,400
Speaker 3: revenue with tariff revenue, we can make everybody better off.

128
00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,560
Speaker 3: So if we take a dollar away if you buy

129
00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:19,160
Speaker 3: a foreign good and then give you a dollar back

130
00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,080
Speaker 3: at an income tax, you're going to be better off,

131
00:05:21,120 --> 00:05:22,719
Speaker 3: is what he believes. And I think what's going to

132
00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:25,000
Speaker 3: happen is that markets are going to watch numbers like

133
00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:27,120
Speaker 3: the numbers we see today, and they gradually see that

134
00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:28,160
Speaker 3: President Trump is right.

135
00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:29,960
Speaker 1: This is how you build a golden age.

136
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,599
Speaker 2: All these companies against be worried about what's still to come,

137
00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:34,960
Speaker 2: and we'll hold off on making these decisions because they

138
00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,480
Speaker 2: don't know what policy actually is. A month from now,

139
00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:39,479
Speaker 2: we'll get more detail on tariffs on the likes of

140
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,800
Speaker 2: the Europeans. We'll also get an update on what's going

141
00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:44,040
Speaker 2: to happen with Mexico and Canada. Kevin, can you share

142
00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,599
Speaker 2: with us whether the President has provided any metrics to

143
00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:48,560
Speaker 2: the Canadians, to the Mexicans on what they need to

144
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:50,600
Speaker 2: get down between now and next month.

145
00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:53,800
Speaker 3: I can tell you that we've been in the situation

146
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,480
Speaker 3: room looking at the very best info we could get

147
00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,520
Speaker 3: from our intel agencies on the progress that's being made

148
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,960
Speaker 3: the drug war. And that's what this whole Canada Mexico

149
00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,680
Speaker 3: thing is about. It's about a drug war, and there

150
00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:07,880
Speaker 3: have been some parameters that have moved because it's an

151
00:06:07,920 --> 00:06:12,040
Speaker 3: active negotiation. And President Trump is seeing progress of the

152
00:06:12,120 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 3: drug war both in Canada added Mexico, and he's in

153
00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,840
Speaker 3: the end trying to save the tens of thousands of

154
00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:21,200
Speaker 3: American lives with this drug war, and that's why he's

155
00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,719
Speaker 3: adjusted when you see progress. But yeah, we've got people,

156
00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:26,560
Speaker 3: satellites and everything looking at where the federal labs are

157
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,279
Speaker 3: and we're making progress. And I think that that's separate

158
00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,120
Speaker 3: from what we're going to see at April, where uncertainty

159
00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 3: will be resolved because we'll have a report on the

160
00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:35,560
Speaker 3: Reciprocal Trade Act.

161
00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:38,160
Speaker 2: The European issue is different. You've been clear about that.

162
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,200
Speaker 2: I think we all understand it. There's been a big

163
00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:42,880
Speaker 2: change this week over in Europe and potentially in the

164
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,159
Speaker 2: months and years to come. The Germans are getting ready

165
00:06:45,200 --> 00:06:48,560
Speaker 2: to spend on infrastructure and on defense. Do you in

166
00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,080
Speaker 2: the administration like what you're hearing from the Europeans in

167
00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:52,960
Speaker 2: the past few days, and do you think that would

168
00:06:53,040 --> 00:06:55,040
Speaker 2: lead to a different approach when it comes to tariff

169
00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:56,320
Speaker 2: in the next few months.

170
00:06:57,200 --> 00:07:00,560
Speaker 3: Right, Absolutely, the Europeans need to make a lot of

171
00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:03,280
Speaker 3: progress on defense that they've been free riding on America

172
00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:04,320
Speaker 3: for a long long time.

173
00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:05,400
Speaker 1: But there are friends.

174
00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:09,560
Speaker 3: That's a foreign policy issue, but on an economic policy issue,

175
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,720
Speaker 3: think about it this way that in a typical month,

176
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,320
Speaker 3: we're importing about thirty five billion dollars worth of autos

177
00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 3: and exporting about thirteen billion worth of autos, and that's

178
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,880
Speaker 3: because of all of the non tariff barriers and tariffs themselves,

179
00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,440
Speaker 3: like the Europeans have a ten percent terrified autos that

180
00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,480
Speaker 3: President Trump's views is unfair. And so against that backdrop,

181
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:29,080
Speaker 3: the idea that we created almost ten thousand auto jobs,

182
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 3: this fund shows that he's on the case and he's

183
00:07:32,400 --> 00:07:35,160
Speaker 3: fixing these things that are unfair for American workers, and

184
00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,000
Speaker 3: he's making progress already in February.

185
00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:39,280
Speaker 2: Kevin, do you think the reciprocal tariffs the focus of

186
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:41,320
Speaker 2: them will be on autos or is it much broader

187
00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:41,680
Speaker 2: than that.

188
00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 1: Oh, be much broader than that.

189
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, we basically want trade to be fair for Americans

190
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,280
Speaker 3: across everything, across everything, Kevin.

191
00:07:49,280 --> 00:07:50,960
Speaker 2: As you know, there's been some jitters on Wall Street,

192
00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:53,520
Speaker 2: so let's finish there. In the equity market, we've seen

193
00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:56,440
Speaker 2: a pull back of five six percentage points, not too dramatic,

194
00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,400
Speaker 2: but there's certainly some fear out there, and you see

195
00:07:58,440 --> 00:08:02,200
Speaker 2: that in sentiment indicates us with a Trump administration, particularly

196
00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,559
Speaker 2: in the first term, we became accustomed to what became

197
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,320
Speaker 2: known as the Trump put in the equity market. Secrety

198
00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:09,840
Speaker 2: Beston says there isn't one anymore. He says, it's all

199
00:08:09,880 --> 00:08:12,440
Speaker 2: about the upside, and there's a big call. I understand that.

200
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,240
Speaker 2: But the President said just yesterday, I'm not even looking

201
00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:18,760
Speaker 2: at the stock market, Kevin. What is the president looking at?

202
00:08:18,840 --> 00:08:20,880
Speaker 2: And if I can leave the interview here just with

203
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,320
Speaker 2: this final question, what is his metric for success through

204
00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:26,560
Speaker 2: this year? What's that number one data point that we

205
00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:28,280
Speaker 2: should be judging this administration by.

206
00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,960
Speaker 3: Well, I think that obviously, when you're looking at the economy,

207
00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:33,480
Speaker 3: there are lots and lots of different things that we

208
00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,160
Speaker 3: care a heck of a lot about. For the drug war,

209
00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,280
Speaker 3: the thing we care about is reduction and death of feednol.

210
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:42,400
Speaker 3: In the economy, what we want to do is see

211
00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,840
Speaker 3: a creation of manufacturing jobs, especially auto jobs, and we

212
00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,040
Speaker 3: want to see a successful tax bill. And I think

213
00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 3: that all of that is going to give us the

214
00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,520
Speaker 3: three or four percent growth that we're all hoping for,

215
00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,400
Speaker 3: that we got in the first term and that we'll

216
00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,680
Speaker 3: get again. But I think that just picking one metric

217
00:08:57,320 --> 00:08:59,280
Speaker 3: is not enough for the president. But I can tell

218
00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:00,880
Speaker 3: you that last night, when I was in the Oval

219
00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,120
Speaker 3: late at night talking about the jobs numbers, would have

220
00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:06,160
Speaker 3: been telling him about the ten thousand manufacturing jobs and

221
00:09:06,280 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 3: nine thousand autoworker jobs.

222
00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,480
Speaker 1: He was really really pleased to see the numbers.

223
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:11,520
Speaker 2: Kevin, we'll please to catch up with you. I appreciate

224
00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:13,679
Speaker 2: the spirits of conversations, sir, enjoy the weekend.

225
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:14,640
Speaker 1: Thank you. Great to be here.

226
00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:17,560
Speaker 2: Kevin Hasset, the National Economic Council Director, Thank you,