WEBVTT - Abortion Rights Win On and Off the Ballot 0:00:03.200 --> 0:00:08.320 This is Bloomberg Law with June Brusso from Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:10.360 --> 0:00:13.880 We did it, We did it. 0:00:14.000 --> 0:00:18.120 Cheers in Ohio last night, a Republican state where voters 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:21.320 approved a ballot measure to enshrine the right to an 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:25.360 abortion in the state constitution that gives abortion rights a 0:00:25.440 --> 0:00:29.080 seven to zero winning streak on state ballots since the 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:33.479 Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Abortion rights may not 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.000 have been on the ballot in other states, but it 0:00:36.080 --> 0:00:39.600 was the driving issue in races in Kentucky and Virginia, 0:00:39.880 --> 0:00:44.159 where it trounced the opposition, beating back an attempted reframing 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:45.919 of the issues by Republicans. 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:46.879 Thank you. 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:53.040 Kentucky Democratic Governor Andy Basher resoundingly won reelection in the 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:58.000 red state of Kentucky. His opponent, Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, 0:00:58.200 --> 0:01:01.800 was endorsed by Trump and parted the state's near total 0:01:01.840 --> 0:01:05.600 ban on abortion, while Basher placed abortion rights front and 0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:06.919 center in his campaign. 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:14.720 Kentucky made a choice, a choice not to move to 0:01:14.800 --> 0:01:18.160 the right or to the left, but to move forward. 0:01:18.240 --> 0:01:20.360 For every single family. 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:25.200 Joining me is Mary Ziegeler, a professor at UC Davis 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:28.360 Law School. Her new book is Roe the history of 0:01:28.400 --> 0:01:32.120 a national obsession. Mary, was the twenty twenty three election 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:35.640 cycle a big test for the question of whether protecting 0:01:35.680 --> 0:01:37.759 abortion rights wins elections? 0:01:38.000 --> 0:01:38.200 Yeah? 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:40.319 Absolutely. I mean, I think there was already a lot 0:01:40.360 --> 0:01:43.560 of evidence that protecting abortion rights wins elections. But I 0:01:43.560 --> 0:01:48.400 think any doubt on that matter was resolved pretty decisively. 0:01:48.760 --> 0:01:52.520 So Ohio, fifty seven percent of Ohio voters cast their 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:56.800 ballot in favor of the constitutional amendment to codify abortion access, 0:01:57.080 --> 0:02:02.000 despite a significant array of obstacle goals in a red state, 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:05.520 purging of twenty six thousand people on the voter rolls, 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:09.440 and the Republican Secretary of State who was anti abortion, 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:13.240 changed the language on the ballot measure referring to a 0:02:13.280 --> 0:02:16.720 fetus as an unborn child. Tell us about the obstacles 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:20.240 that Republicans put in the way of this constitutional amendment. 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:22.919 There have been a lot of obstacles. Republicans began by 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:27.560 trying to lift the threshold for passage of a ballot initiative, 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.560 and that proposal was defeated by Ohio voters in August. 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:37.359 There's been information published on official government websites in Ohio 0:02:37.639 --> 0:02:40.960 giving a misleading account of what issue on the ballot 0:02:41.040 --> 0:02:44.600 initiative would have meant there's been the you know, the 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:49.880 language anti worsion, language used to describe what voters were choosing. 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:52.720 And yet, you know, despite all of that, there's been 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:56.880 pulling on the ballot initiative actually been pretty remarkably consistent 0:02:57.120 --> 0:02:59.840 for some time now, so voters had made up their 0:03:00.480 --> 0:03:05.000 and all of these various strategies by Republicans didn't work. 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:08.200 Yeah, and also making it a no vote in August 0:03:08.240 --> 0:03:11.320 but a yes vote in November. It seems like the 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.880 Republicans were just trying to sow confusion rather than waning 0:03:15.000 --> 0:03:16.880 on the issue. 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:18.919 Yeah, I mean, I think that's one of the things 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:22.680 that's striking. There hasn't really been an effort in Ohio 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:26.080 to convince voters that abortion rights were a bad idea 0:03:26.120 --> 0:03:28.880 on the merits. Instead, there have been efforts to stop 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:33.040 voters either from understanding the issue or deciding it. And 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:36.360 that obviously tells you Ohio Republicans were in trouble. Right, 0:03:36.360 --> 0:03:39.800 if you yourself conceived that your position is that unpopular, 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.440 you're not starting from a position of strength. 0:03:43.400 --> 0:03:46.480 So Susan B. Anthony Pro Life America group is saying 0:03:46.520 --> 0:03:51.120 it lost in Ohio because voters incorrectly believe pregnant patients 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:54.440 could be denied life saving medical care. What do you 0:03:54.480 --> 0:03:58.120 think of the response of the anti abortion groups to this. 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:03.320 I mean, I think that you're seeing a lot of excuses. Really. 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.640 I mean, I think that if you have lost seven 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:10.000 of seven valid initiative fights, the idea that that's all 0:04:10.040 --> 0:04:13.600 based on voters misunderstanding of the issues isn't really a 0:04:13.640 --> 0:04:16.680 credible explanation. I mean, I think it's certainly true that 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.839 the workings of abortion bands have been consequential in the 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:25.320 sense that physicians aren't comfortable applying exceptions to people with 0:04:25.480 --> 0:04:30.240 wanted pregnancies who are in life threatening situations. But I think, 0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.520 by the same token, if you've lost seven of seven 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.120 valid initiative races in the space of a year, the 0:04:36.200 --> 0:04:39.560 problem is not just packaging or funding that the problem 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.240 is substance, and I think that's becoming increasingly clear. 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:46.279 You mentioned the seven to zero winning street on the 0:04:46.320 --> 0:04:50.400 ballot initiative since Roe was overturned. What have the abortion 0:04:50.720 --> 0:04:54.040 rights advocates been doing to be so effective? 0:04:54.360 --> 0:04:56.760 I mean, I think, first of all, they have the 0:04:57.040 --> 0:05:00.800 advantage of what Republicans are doing in a lot of states, right, 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.960 So Republicans in Virginia, for example, tried to say, oh, hey, 0:05:04.000 --> 0:05:06.160 you know, the Democrats are extreme because they don't want 0:05:06.200 --> 0:05:09.200 there to be any restrictions on abortion. And it's been 0:05:09.240 --> 0:05:12.120 easy for Democrats to carry that attack by pointing to 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.200 the bands that are actually on the books and large 0:05:14.200 --> 0:05:16.679 spots of the country that are not, you know, moderate 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:20.040 compromises at all. I think the other thing that abortion 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:24.000 rights supporters have done relatively well is to realize that 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:26.920 ballot initiatives are very much the politics of the local 0:05:27.400 --> 0:05:29.560 So a message that will work in Ohio will not 0:05:29.640 --> 0:05:32.520 necessarily work in California or Kansas. That you have to 0:05:32.600 --> 0:05:36.400 tailor what you're saying, how you write your valid initiative, 0:05:36.480 --> 0:05:39.800 what arguments you make for it, to the audience in 0:05:39.839 --> 0:05:43.279 that state. And I think that's been pretty successfully done 0:05:43.360 --> 0:05:44.039 too so far. 0:05:44.640 --> 0:05:49.000 So you mentioned Virginia, and it seemed like anti abortion 0:05:49.120 --> 0:05:54.480 leaders were testing some new tactics this cycle rebranding. They 0:05:54.480 --> 0:05:58.359 didn't call them abortion bands, but rather limits. And you 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:02.840 mentioned fear mongering about Democrats wanting abortion up until birth, 0:06:03.080 --> 0:06:07.280 and it seemed like Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin used those 0:06:07.360 --> 0:06:11.320 tactics in his campaign to try to get Republican control 0:06:11.440 --> 0:06:15.160 of both state houses, which of course failed. How important 0:06:15.240 --> 0:06:17.719 was the abortion issue there, even though it wasn't on 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:18.960 the ballot. 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:21.120 It was pretty important. I mean, I think Governor Youngkin 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.960 was on the record as saying that he was piloting 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:27.000 what he saw as a potential way forward for Republicans 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:29.880 on abortion in every state, and that was to go 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:33.240 on the offense and essentially accuse Democrats of being the 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:38.119 real extremists on abortion and using, like you said, a limit, 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:42.800 as Youngin would have framed it to rally Republicans around, 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:47.120 and that obviously didn't work, and if anything, it seemed 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.240 that the abortion issue helped Democrats, I think, achieve a 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.480 surprisingly good result in Virginia and taking control of both 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:56.520 houses of the Virginia Legislature. And I think, you know, 0:06:56.560 --> 0:06:59.920 the reason it didn't work is because I think Youngin, 0:07:00.279 --> 0:07:05.160 using an old playbook before Roe was gone, Republicans would 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:09.000 hold up, you know, regulations that were popular in isolation, 0:07:09.320 --> 0:07:11.320 like a fifteen week ban or a ban on so 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.560 called partial birth abortion, and say, you know, aren't you 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:17.680 for this voters, And a lot of voters would say, sure, 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:21.000 you know, that sounds reasonable. But now when Democrats say 0:07:21.080 --> 0:07:23.760 that isn't really what where Glenn Youngkin wants to stop. 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:25.880 That's as much as he thinks he can get today. 0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:28.280 But tomorrow he's going to come back and ask for 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:30.240 a six week ban or a ban at fertilization. That 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.360 argument has a lot more credibility with voters because, of course, 0:07:33.480 --> 0:07:36.200 you know, anti abortion activists are admitting as much, anti 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:39.720 abortion politicians are admitting as much. There's many state bans 0:07:39.760 --> 0:07:42.840 that already go that far. So when Youngkin claims to 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.600 be the voice of moderation and reason, it doesn't have 0:07:45.680 --> 0:07:49.040 the same force it would have before Dobbs. So I 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:51.840 think that's one of the reasons that strategy didn't actually 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:53.760 play out as Youngkin had planned. 0:07:54.160 --> 0:07:59.040 Younkin was pushing this fifteen week abortion ban, why Republicans 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:03.000 think that that's a compromised position that would be acceptable. 0:08:03.240 --> 0:08:05.600 I think where they're getting fifteen weeks is a combination 0:08:05.720 --> 0:08:09.200 of that's just what Dobbs upheld. So it's had some 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.840 sort of resonance for Republicans for that reason, and also 0:08:13.040 --> 0:08:16.760 because there are polls suggesting that as much as Americans 0:08:16.800 --> 0:08:22.480 support for abortion throughout pregnancy has continued in recent years 0:08:23.480 --> 0:08:28.880 that there's still less support later rather than earlier in pregnancy, 0:08:28.960 --> 0:08:33.439 and so I think what you're seeing is Republicans trying 0:08:33.480 --> 0:08:35.840 to leverage that and say, you know, we're going to 0:08:35.880 --> 0:08:39.680 focus on a ban at a point where think Americans 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:42.280 will be more on board, and we're going to say 0:08:42.320 --> 0:08:45.960 that that's actually our focus rather than a ban from fertilization, 0:08:46.559 --> 0:08:50.160 And they're expecting people to credit that right. And I 0:08:50.200 --> 0:08:53.560 think again, the problem is not it's twofold. And one, 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:57.199 I think fewer Americans support a ban at fifteen weeks 0:08:57.240 --> 0:09:00.920 than would have been the case several years ago. And two, 0:09:01.120 --> 0:09:04.400 you're seeing the fact that voters just don't believe that 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:07.000 Republicans are actually interested in a fifteen week ban. They 0:09:07.000 --> 0:09:10.120 see a fifteen week ban as a sort of compromise 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:13.640 that Republicans are forging at the moment because they can't 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.400 get anything more than that, but that they would go 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:19.000 much further in banning abortion if they had the opportunity. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.640 Coming up next, i'll continue this conversation with UC Davis 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.480 professor Mary Ziegler. Will there be more constitutional amendments to 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:30.240 protect access to abortion on the ballots in other states? 0:09:30.240 --> 0:09:33.800 In twenty twenty four, and attempts to stop travel out 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.040 of state to get an abortion. Abortion rights may not 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:39.320 have been on the ballot, but it was the driving 0:09:39.480 --> 0:09:43.280 issue in races in Kentucky and Virginia, where it trounced 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:46.839 the opposition. In Kentucky, a state that Trump won by 0:09:46.920 --> 0:09:52.240 twenty six points, voters resoundingly re elected Democratic Governor Andy Basheer. 0:09:52.559 --> 0:09:56.559 He won over Trump endorsed Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, 0:09:56.800 --> 0:10:00.400 who supports the states near total ban on abortion. Sheer 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:04.040 placed abortion rights front and center in his campaign and 0:10:04.160 --> 0:10:07.439 ran a sharp attack ad against Cameron where a woman 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:11.120 described being raped by her stepfather when she was twelve. 0:10:11.640 --> 0:10:14.760 This is to you, Daniel Cameron. To tell a twelve 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.040 year old girl she must have the baby of her 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:21.720 stepfather who raped her is unthinkable. I'm speaking out because 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:25.400 women and girls need to have options. Daniel Cameron would 0:10:25.440 --> 0:10:26.240 give us none. 0:10:26.679 --> 0:10:29.280 I've been talking to Mary Ziegler, a professor at UC 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:31.960 Davis Law School. Mary, what do you think of the 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:33.680 use of attack ads like that? 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.160 Well, I think what you're seeing in the fight between 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:38.520 Cameron and Sheer is sort of the mirror image of 0:10:38.559 --> 0:10:40.880 what happens when you try to do the opposite of 0:10:40.880 --> 0:10:44.120 what Glenn Youngkin did. So, at least at the beginning 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:46.880 of his campaign, Daniel Cameron said, I'm not going to 0:10:46.960 --> 0:10:49.040 run away from my position on abortion. I'm going to 0:10:49.160 --> 0:10:51.400 make it part of my campaign. I'm going to emphasize 0:10:51.400 --> 0:10:53.680 that I've been in court, I've been the one fighting 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:57.920 for Kentucky's abortion band like I'm mister anti abortion right. 0:10:58.040 --> 0:11:01.720 And Dasher was to have him do that, because then 0:11:01.760 --> 0:11:03.960 Basher could say, you know, I am the voice of 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:06.360 reason right and not even really have to get into 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:09.920 questions about abortion that would be tricky in Kentucky. 0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:10.160 Right. 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:13.199 He could focus on things like victims of sexual assault 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:18.160 and accuse Cameron of being heartless toward those patients and 0:11:18.559 --> 0:11:21.160 leave any of the trickier questions in a red state 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:25.000 like Kentucky off the table. So I think the lesson 0:11:25.240 --> 0:11:28.560 is that whether you're trying to strike a kind of 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:34.120 faux moderate tone like Youngkin, or you're trying to, you know, 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.400 run to energize the base, which I think is what 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:41.839 Cameron was doing, that there are perils either way, and 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.199 that's I think what we saw yesterday. 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:49.120 Constitutional amendments to protect abortion access are already on the 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:52.120 ballot for twenty twenty four in Maryland and New York. 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:57.600 What other states do you see there's momentum to put 0:11:57.640 --> 0:11:59.520 abortion rights on the ballot next year. 0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:04.240 Only the most consequential is Florida. As you mentioned, New 0:12:04.320 --> 0:12:07.839 York and Maryland are not in any real jeopardy of 0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:13.720 changing their abortion policy significantly absent the constitutional amendment, So 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.839 those would be more along the lines of proposals you've 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:20.679 seen in states like California or Vermont, where you're expanding 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:24.960 on existing protections. Florida has a very conservative state Supreme 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.280 Court that is likely to overturn a nineteen eighty nine 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:33.600 precedent recognizing state of worshi rights, So absent intervention by voters, 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:37.679 you're likely to see Florida's six weekman go into effect 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:40.840 in the not too distant future. Florida is more complicated 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:44.880 simply because well, there are two reasons. One, Florida has 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:50.360 a sixty percent threshold for passing ballid initiatives, and second, 0:12:51.000 --> 0:12:55.160 there's already a challenge before the Florida Supreme Court, which 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:58.439 as I mentioned, is very conservative, by the Attorney General 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:02.080 actually Moody that's attempting to get that issue off the 0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:06.040 ballot by essentially arguing it's confusing to voters. So this 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:08.320 is another kind of parallel to what we saw in Ohio, 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.040 where Republicans are trying to keep voters from weighing in, 0:13:11.720 --> 0:13:14.200 but this time they're relying on a very conservative state 0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:17.600 Supreme Court, which may be a more successful strategy. 0:13:18.200 --> 0:13:22.800 Do you see any sort of cracks in the abortion 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:26.839 activists arguments or you know, the way they're framing things 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:31.640 or campaign that Republicans or abortion opponents could use in 0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.440 twenty twenty four to defeat ballot measures or to defeat 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.160 pro abortion candidates. 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.200 I mean, I think the cracks mostly are at the 0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:44.360 federal level, right, So I think the person who's on 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:46.920 the Republican side who's played the abortion issue the best 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.760 so far as Donald Trump. Now, you know, you can't 0:13:49.800 --> 0:13:52.160 praise Donald Trump too much for it, because he's in 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.480 the enviable position of basically having a glide path to 0:13:55.520 --> 0:13:58.360 the nomination regardless of what he says about abortion. So 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.520 he quite simply just doesn't need to worry about offending 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:05.679 primary voters on abortion because he's going to win the 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:09.800 nomination anyway. But I think Trump has convinced a lot 0:14:09.840 --> 0:14:12.439 of Americans. I think inaccurately, in my view, that he 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:16.360 really isn't actually going to do anything on abortion in office, 0:14:16.800 --> 0:14:18.760 and that he thinks it would be a mistake to 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:21.760 do so. And I think, you know, there are plenty 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:25.120 of things Trump would and I think could do without 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:29.440 Congress were he to be elected again. And I think 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:32.680 that's probably the best move Republicans can make, to either 0:14:33.280 --> 0:14:37.120 lie or rely on courts, as you're seeing in Florida, 0:14:37.240 --> 0:14:40.160 essentially takes the ball to another court and blame the 0:14:40.200 --> 0:14:42.880 courts for whatever's going to happen on abortion. I think 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.600 the idea that the question is about fundraising or messaging, 0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:50.160 as various Republican candidates have suggested, kind of misses the point. 0:14:51.240 --> 0:14:56.520 Well, Trump at one point was taking credit for turning 0:14:56.520 --> 0:14:59.800 the Supreme Court so conservative and for a point to 0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.520 sing justices who were anti abortion. 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:05.240 Yeah. Absolutely. And I mean the other thing, too, obviously, 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:07.160 is like if you just think about how Donald Trump 0:15:07.280 --> 0:15:10.320 usually operates, it's based on self interest. So at the moment, 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.720 it's in his self interest to say that abortion is, 0:15:14.840 --> 0:15:17.680 you know, an issue that Republicans need to compromise on 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.800 because Trump needs to get into office. But when Trump 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.560 is in office, the calculus will be very different, right. 0:15:23.600 --> 0:15:26.080 I mean, he'll be still looking to raise money from 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.920 voters who like him, as he has pretty much his 0:15:29.080 --> 0:15:32.280 entire time out of office. He'll be looking for close 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:36.160 allies to join him in his effort to transform the 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.680 DOJ and pursue vendettas against political enemies. He may be 0:15:40.800 --> 0:15:43.600 looking for ways to stay in power after his twenty 0:15:43.600 --> 0:15:46.160 twenty four term is up. And in all of that, 0:15:46.680 --> 0:15:48.640 it's going to make more sense for him to try 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.720 to energize and strengthen ties to the base than it 0:15:51.760 --> 0:15:56.600 would to, you know, essentially appeal to general voters who 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.560 are not going to be interested in his revenge campaign 0:15:59.680 --> 0:16:02.760 or his staying in office permanently. So I think that's 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:05.800 a big part of why you have to take Trump's 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.920 current positioning on this with a grain of salt. 0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:11.440 It's been more than a year since the Supreme Court 0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:16.800 overturned Row and abortion is almost completely outlawed in fifteen states, 0:16:17.040 --> 0:16:21.000 Yet the number of abortions done in the US has, 0:16:21.120 --> 0:16:25.720 by some estimates, fallen by only about twenty nine hundred 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:28.920 procedures per month. Is that due to the abortion pill? 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.400 Yeah, I mean, I think that the data we have 0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:35.400 so far suggests either that patients are crossing state lines 0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:38.520 to get abortions. Essentially, you know, the abortion rate in 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:43.400 states adjacent to BAND states has gone up significantly, and 0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:46.760 they're getting abortion pills online, so part of you know, 0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:49.880 the other thing that's interesting is that the GOP is 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:53.960 really damaging its cause by going to the wall for 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:58.200 these bands, and then ultimately the bands aren't even working 0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:01.360 to lower the rate of ortion, and. 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:04.440 Abortion opponents in some states are trying to find ways 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:07.760 to limit a woman's ability to leave the state to 0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:13.000 access abortion, relying on novel legal strategies and targeting those 0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:16.920 who assist pregnant women in traveling for care. For example, 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:20.359 Alabama's attorney general declared that his office had the power 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:24.000 to prosecute people who help residents leave the state for 0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:28.159 an abortion by using criminal conspiracy laws, and a handful 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:32.160 of counties in Texas have passed ordinances outlawing using their 0:17:32.280 --> 0:17:35.160 roads to drive somewhat out of state for an abortion. 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:39.080 Do you think any of these kinds of measures would 0:17:39.119 --> 0:17:40.960 survive a legal challenge. 0:17:41.000 --> 0:17:43.120 I mean, I don't know, right, and I think this 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:46.480 is the potential ace in the hole for Republicans that 0:17:46.560 --> 0:17:50.920 if they don't have voters, they may have the courts. 0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:54.760 Because some of these questions about the full phrasing, credit, cause, 0:17:54.800 --> 0:17:57.120 and the right to travel, I think many of these 0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:02.040 laws would be unconstitutional. But I also acknowledged that a 0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:05.040 lot of these areas of law are really underdeveloped and 0:18:05.200 --> 0:18:07.440 that there haven't been courts who've weighed in on these 0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:11.440 questions for decades, And so that means that there are 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:14.600 possibilities that you could get conservative federal judges to side 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:17.880 with you when voters will not. And I think that's 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:20.840 really kind of the wild card, one whether courts will 0:18:20.960 --> 0:18:23.680 do that, and two whether Donald Trump can get into 0:18:23.760 --> 0:18:28.800 office as polls suggest he will and then achieve outcomes 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:33.000 that voters would reject just using the executive branch power alone. 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:35.879 These laws are also designed to frighten people, not to 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:40.600 help people get abortions. Have doctors been delaying or denying 0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:44.120 care even in states with exceptions to abortion bans. 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:47.320 Absolutely, I mean in states with abortion bans, we've seen 0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:51.879 a lot of doctors hesitating to provide care, even in 0:18:51.960 --> 0:18:55.600 cases where they would have a very good argument that 0:18:56.400 --> 0:19:02.040 they could act without legal penalty, because the downsides of 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:06.760 being wrong are so significant, right, they're like up to 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.639 life in prison. So and physicians as a group are not, 0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:15.879 you know, particularly risk tolerant. Right, There's a group of 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.119 people who have invested a lot in managing risk and 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:23.200 in their own careers who are not interested in jeopardizing. 0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:22.960 All of that. 0:19:23.480 --> 0:19:27.600 So many unanswered questions in this area. Thanks so much, Mary. 0:19:27.880 --> 0:19:31.399 That's Mary Ziegler, a professor at UC Davis Law School. 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:35.440 Coming up, Well, John Eastman lose his license to practice law. 0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:39.880 This is bloomberg. Ah, we are demanding a vice president. 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:43.000 Pence is this afternoon at one o'clock. 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:46.840 He let the legislators of the state look into this. 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:49.199 So we get to the bottom of it and the 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:52.159 America people know whether we have control of the director 0:19:52.240 --> 0:19:53.480 of our government or not. 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:57.000 That was Trump attorney John Eastman at the rally on 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.800 January sixth, before the march to the Capitol. He was 0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:04.159 one of the chief architects of Trump's failed efforts to 0:20:04.240 --> 0:20:08.159 overturn the twenty twenty presidential election, and he's one of 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:13.000 the eighteen defendants charged along with Trump with racketeering for 0:20:13.119 --> 0:20:17.240 their efforts to overturn the election in Georgia. Eastman is 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:21.880 also fighting to retain his law license in California. There 0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:24.640 have been thirty three days of trial in the California 0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:28.760 State Bar Court, the nation's only court devoted entirely to 0:20:28.880 --> 0:20:33.080 lawyer discipline, and more than eight hundred exhibits have been submitted. 0:20:33.480 --> 0:20:37.520 The Bar's eleven count notice of discipline includes charges that 0:20:37.640 --> 0:20:42.760 Eastman violated ethical and legal obligations for allegedly conspiring with 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:47.080 Trump to disrupt the electoral count on January sixth. Among 0:20:47.119 --> 0:20:50.640 the claims is that Eastman pressured then Vice President Mike 0:20:50.720 --> 0:20:54.359 Pence to violate the law and override every branch of 0:20:54.520 --> 0:20:59.159 government by throwing out electoral votes. Eastman claims he had 0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:01.679 a good faith buil to doubt the results of the 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.800 election and a First Amendment right to speak out as 0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:08.960 a private citizen. Joining me is Joyce Cutler, a correspondent 0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:13.359 for Bloomberg Law. So what started this action by the 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:14.280 California Bar? 0:21:15.119 --> 0:21:18.120 There is a complaints file against John Eastman. Among them 0:21:18.359 --> 0:21:23.760 were twelve hundred attorneys former judges for violating California ethical 0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:27.800 and bar rules. There are several complaints against him, goes 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:30.800 back in a large part to his actions last in 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:34.040 the fall of twenty nineteen and into twenty twenty. There 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:38.080 are comments made that he made to podcast Bannon's war room. 0:21:38.400 --> 0:21:41.960 There were comments he made to the rally on January 0:21:42.080 --> 0:21:45.119 sixth at the Ellipse. There were memos that he wrote, 0:21:45.119 --> 0:21:47.800 two memos he wrote for the Trump campaign. There were 0:21:48.000 --> 0:21:52.480 comments he made about the dominion electronic votings, about emails 0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:55.400 he made to Vice President make Fence's chief counsel, miss 0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:58.879 representations in an article a publication called The American Mind 0:21:59.480 --> 0:22:03.680 regarding alleged fraud in Georgia and Michigan. They all had 0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:08.200 to do with his conduct or comments he made while 0:22:08.600 --> 0:22:10.560 basically acting as a lawyer. 0:22:11.000 --> 0:22:15.320 So he took the stand. Tell us basically, what was 0:22:15.359 --> 0:22:17.439 his argument. He seemed to be saying that, you know, 0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:18.399 what he did was legal. 0:22:18.680 --> 0:22:20.880 Yeah, he said several things. One, he was in good 0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:24.880 conscious acting as a zealous advocate for his client Trump 0:22:24.960 --> 0:22:28.240 and the Trump campaign. And he said he was giving 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:32.640 legal advice, and attorneys should be able to freely give 0:22:32.720 --> 0:22:35.840 legal advice, all forms of it, when you're laying out 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.400 all sorts of scenarios, and should be able to do 0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:41.680 that without being prosecuted. He also said he had a 0:22:41.760 --> 0:22:44.760 First Amendment right to stand up and make those comments. 0:22:44.800 --> 0:22:47.520 On January sixth under the First Amendment. 0:22:48.040 --> 0:22:51.640 So there were what thirty three days of trial? Who 0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:56.080 was would you say, the best witness against him then for. 0:22:56.160 --> 0:23:00.400 Constitutional scholar the name of Matthew Grimmer. He had some 0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:06.960 really impressive testimony about there is no foundation for Eastman's arguments, 0:23:07.040 --> 0:23:11.000 there's no legal basis for alternate electors theory, there is 0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:16.879 nothing in constitutional law, in the Constitution, in the law anywhere. 0:23:17.320 --> 0:23:20.640 Matthew Seligman is a fellow at the Constitutional Law Center 0:23:20.720 --> 0:23:25.119 Stanford Law School, and he said there's nothing in the 0:23:25.160 --> 0:23:28.439 twelfth Amendment or elsewhere in legal principles to back up 0:23:28.440 --> 0:23:31.359 his theories. And Eastman was known as a constitutional a 0:23:31.400 --> 0:23:36.480 conservative constitution law scholar as well, So that you had 0:23:36.520 --> 0:23:39.679 someone who was his equal, shall we say, come up 0:23:39.680 --> 0:23:43.560