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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day

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Speaker 1: for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and

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Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. For the

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Speaker 1: entire half hour, No Rubini, Damian, I'm gonna tell this

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Speaker 1: story as quickly as I can. You brought it up earlier,

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Speaker 1: which is the idea of where doctor Rubini was in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and five. One night at Davos, at the

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Speaker 1: Belvedere Hotel. I sat in the old bar, not before

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Speaker 1: they they fancyized it. It was the old wooden bar

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Speaker 1: with dust and you know Velderie veldera and doctor Obini

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Speaker 1: and I sat there by ourselves, and just around the

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Speaker 1: corner of the bar was a guy named Geitner. And

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Speaker 1: Geitner just listened. He didn't participate in a conversation. And

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Speaker 1: Norah and I went through the excesses of two thousand

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Speaker 1: and five, two thousand and six, and within that folks

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Speaker 1: and figured about interviews and speeches and all that over

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Speaker 1: a quiet beverage of our choice. He laid out the

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Speaker 1: next seventy two months like nobody I've ever seen. That's right.

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Speaker 1: It was such a privilege to have Mike Bloomberg pick

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Speaker 1: up the bar tab as. I met with Nora Rabini

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Speaker 1: in two thousand and five or six, Why don't you

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Speaker 1: bring up the esteemed Rubine.

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Speaker 2: Doctr Ubani probably don't remember this, but in two thousand

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Speaker 2: and seven, when I was at City Group, I was

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Speaker 2: working for Mark Borr and Chris Paisk shout out to

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Speaker 2: you two. We had some traders in from Tutor, from Soros,

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Speaker 2: and we were at mister Childs Downtown and Tribeca, and

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Speaker 2: you were talking about this. Now, fast forward, this is

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Speaker 2: not two thousand and five, this is two thousand and seven.

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Speaker 2: You're talking about the global financial crisis, your call, and

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Speaker 2: these traders were all over you, saying you've been called

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Speaker 2: on to do this forever, you know whatever. So talk

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Speaker 2: to us now, you know, talk to us about where

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Speaker 2: we are now in the economy. Where's group expectations now?

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Speaker 2: With disinflation, every pressure is kind of bubbling up here.

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Speaker 2: Where are we in the cycle.

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Speaker 3: Well we are in the cycle. Depends on whether you're

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Speaker 3: in the United States, in Europe, in Japan, or China.

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Speaker 3: Probably cannot generalize it, but I would say if we

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Speaker 3: start with the US. It's been an interesting evolution because

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Speaker 3: about a year ago most economs thought that we'll have

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Speaker 3: a hard landing. Then people said there'll be a bumpy

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Speaker 3: or softish landing with a shortened shallow recession. Now the

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Speaker 3: baseline became one of a soft landing, but the economic

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Speaker 3: data on growth have a surprise on the upside, and

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Speaker 3: I would say that paradoxically, the biggest risk today to

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Speaker 3: the market is actually is a case of no landing

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Speaker 3: where growth could continue to be above potential. And why

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Speaker 3: it's going to be inactive for the markets, because if

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Speaker 3: growth remains above potential, the FED is not going to

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Speaker 3: cut rates starting the middle of the year. It's not

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Speaker 3: going to cut rates three times easy. They could cut

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Speaker 3: on it two one, maybe even zero. And I would say, paradoxically,

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Speaker 3: the best news for the economy maybe the worst use

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Speaker 3: for the market. So we've gone from hard landing to

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Speaker 3: bumpy to soft to maybe no landing.

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Speaker 2: For our audience, let's just be clear here this is

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Speaker 2: Professor Norio Rubini talking actually bush at growth expectations on

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Speaker 2: the US economy, on US exceptionalism, Let's talk about some

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Speaker 2: of those other.

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Speaker 3: Elements optimistic about growth. But paradoxy that opting is about

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Speaker 3: growth implies inflation more sticky and bad news for the market.

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Speaker 3: It's on a cyclical basis.

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Speaker 2: So you were just going to take me there, right,

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Speaker 2: I mean, seventy five pips priced in now three year

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Speaker 2: and here in the US, I mean, as the market

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Speaker 2: got it right, or I mean, should we expect perhaps

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Speaker 2: the risk and the pain trade markets being that the

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Speaker 2: markets are pricing in still a bit too much.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the markets are always too dolviish.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: Last year, as you remember that we're expecting the FED

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Speaker 3: would cut rights or even in the second half the year,

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Speaker 3: the Fed said no, and the markets were pushing the Fed.

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Speaker 3: And then the economy data remains strong and actually you

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Speaker 3: got the correction ten percent in August September. Then this

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Speaker 3: year of the year saying six rate cuts, the Fed

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Speaker 3: old US three. Now they moved to three rate cuts

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Speaker 3: like the FED does. But as I said, the possibility

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Speaker 3: is that if economy remains stronger, general data on inflation

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Speaker 3: were strong that then the Fed doesn't cut in June,

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Speaker 3: doesn't cut in July or later. It doesn't cut three

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Speaker 3: times this year could be less than three times, and

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Speaker 3: that could be the negative surprise for the markets.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to go to some of the glooma is

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Speaker 1: out there, and that is a build up in our

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Speaker 1: friscal position. You advise Bill Clinton in another time, or

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Speaker 1: we measure billions. We now measure doctor Rabini in trillions.

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Speaker 1: We have American exceptionalism, we have our technology. I've got

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Speaker 1: the IMF with a growth view out three years. That

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Speaker 1: looks Rubini like to be honest. But the elephant in

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Speaker 1: the room is the debt build up in America. Miami guinnis,

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Speaker 1: among others, expert honest. Do you study the debt and say, well,

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Speaker 1: upset the Apple car or can the debt be tolerated

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Speaker 1: by American productivity and growth?

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Speaker 3: Well, the first two chapters of my new Mega Threats

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Speaker 3: are about debt and that crisis. Actually first chapter is

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Speaker 3: called the Model All that Crisis, and I point out

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Speaker 3: that not just the US, but also globally there's been

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Speaker 3: a rising private and public debt as a short GDP

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Speaker 3: in the US, the sum of the two is four

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Speaker 3: hundred and twenty percent of GDP, And while the average

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Speaker 3: that race for the public sector as one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: of GDP in advanced econom that's the official debt on

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Speaker 3: top of the implicit liability coming from aging of population

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Speaker 3: and social security pays you go systems or healthcare system

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Speaker 3: also pays you go, so that implicit debt is another

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Speaker 3: one hundred percent of GDP. Now, the paradox for the

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Speaker 3: US is the following one. If you're another country Greece, Italy,

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Speaker 3: then UK, and you are fiscally deviant, you have right

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Speaker 3: away market punishing you. Your spreads go higher, if you

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Speaker 3: have exchanges.

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Speaker 1: Why don't we face that discipline?

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Speaker 3: We don't face it the because you have the exorbitant

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Speaker 3: privilege of being the largest reserve currency in the world.

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Speaker 3: And that paradoxically means that we can borrow longer and

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Speaker 3: cheaper to finance our fiscal and external defice. And one

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Speaker 3: of them means that eventually the markets giving us enough

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Speaker 3: rope to hang ourselves even longer.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I want to, I want to.

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Speaker 3: Eventually want shop occurs, It'll be true.

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Speaker 1: We're going to finish with it, Doctor Ebinion and comeback.

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Speaker 1: Damien's got a loaded in the next hour. Doctor Ebini,

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Speaker 1: you just talk about exorbitant privilege, which is just started

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Speaker 1: the staying of old word France. It's berry, I can

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Speaker 1: green out of Berkeley, And critically, it's a Laureate's stigletz,

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Speaker 1: where there's an implied assumption our growth rate will stay

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Speaker 1: ahead of our real rate. However you want to measure

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Speaker 1: it that the growthiness will be there. Do you suggest

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Speaker 1: our American growthiness will still be there.

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Speaker 3: It's a mixed bag because on one side, I think

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Speaker 3: that technology AI innovation could increase potential growth. But in

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Speaker 3: my book Mega Threats, I talk about ten medium long

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Speaker 3: term negative aggregate supplies, shocks that can reduce growth and

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Speaker 3: increase inflation that are stackflationary, and whether technology is going

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Speaker 3: to dominate probably over the medium long term, yes, but

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Speaker 3: for the next decade, I think these mega threads, whether

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Speaker 3: it's global rivalries, the globalization, climate change, pandemics, high private

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Speaker 3: and public debts, the return of inflation, those are all

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Speaker 3: risks to economic growth.

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Speaker 1: Neialbini quote the Looney Tunes road runner could sniff our

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Speaker 1: dynamics in gift raving. Why can't we Neualbini. They're starting

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Speaker 1: mega threats strong with the Looney tune as well. What

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Speaker 1: about the road runner in China? With these two meetings

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Speaker 1: coming up, Damian Sasar, you wonder what our intelligences are

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Speaker 1: knowledge of present in future China.

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean in a time you'd like to reference

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Speaker 2: dour you on which is treading seven twenty one on

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Speaker 2: the offshore. But what I like to look at in

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Speaker 2: China is the tenure yield. The tenure yield that are

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Speaker 2: two thirty five I have two point three five percent.

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Speaker 2: That's one of the lowest fielders world in the world,

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Speaker 2: and so I want to ask you about that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: talk to us about Chinese deflation. What does that mean

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Speaker 2: for somebody sitting here in New York City, or more importantly,

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Speaker 2: somebody sitting you know, elsewhere in this country, because New

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Speaker 2: York is very unimportant at this point in time. Talk

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Speaker 2: to us a little bit about what it means for

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Speaker 2: your average, everyday American deflation coming out of China.

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Speaker 3: Well, it means a few things. There is deflation in

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Speaker 3: China because there is excess supply of good services real

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Speaker 3: estate compared to demand, and implication for both Chinese inflation

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Speaker 3: and global inflation or deflationary through three channels. Channel number

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Speaker 3: one is that China is going to unquote dump this

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Speaker 3: excess capacity of goods in global markets and that puts

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Speaker 3: a downward pressure on global prices. Secondly, the Chinese currency

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Speaker 3: is weakening, means that dollar and other currencies are strengthening.

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Speaker 3: You import less inflation from China. And three, Chinese growth

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Speaker 3: is two three percent effectively implies less demand for commodities

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Speaker 3: that put downward pressure on commodity prices. So weakness of

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Speaker 3: Chinese growth is this inflationary not just for China, but

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Speaker 3: there's also this inflationary for the global economy. Now you

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Speaker 3: could say it's good news, but the bad news is

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Speaker 3: that this excess capacity is being unquote a dumped in

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Speaker 3: global market. There is already protection is pressures, and this

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Speaker 3: protection pressure are going to become more severe because the

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Speaker 3: last thing that the US Europe are going to be

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Speaker 3: accepting is Chinese exporting their excess capacity by ever widening

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Speaker 3: trade deficits with these countries.

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Speaker 2: Well, doctor Vivini, I mean take me through this. I mean,

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Speaker 2: is disinflation enough. I mean you've pretty much said it.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's disinflation enough to move to your Powell's hand,

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Speaker 2: to move the Fed's hand here in the US and

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Speaker 2: get them to start cutting rates, say by the middle

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Speaker 2: of the year, which is what markets are sort of

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Speaker 2: projecting right now.

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Speaker 3: Well, the channels through China don't have a huge impact

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Speaker 3: yet because we're not important as much. I think what

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Speaker 3: matters for the US is going to be headline inflation.

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Speaker 3: And as I pointed out, if we're going to be

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Speaker 3: in a no landing scenarios opposed to a soft landing,

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Speaker 3: growth is going to remain above potential. Inflation's a going

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Speaker 3: to mean sticky and the generary number confirm that. And

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Speaker 3: that means that the fact may not cut trades even

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Speaker 3: in June, and may not cut it three times this year.

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Speaker 3: And if that happens, actually the stock market is going

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Speaker 3: to correct. That's the biggest risk in the market. Actually,

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Speaker 3: no landing trade.

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Speaker 1: We had globalization with a few people discontented. I would

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Speaker 1: suggest many more discontented, including the leadership in Beijing. What's

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Speaker 1: the next globalization look like for you?

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Speaker 3: Well, I think we're in a process of gradually less globalization.

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Speaker 3: We went to hyperglobalization. Now even if we don't have

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Speaker 3: real g globalization, we're going to have French shoring, We'll

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Speaker 3: have reshorting. We'll talk more about a fair trade and

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Speaker 3: security trade rather than a free trade. We'll have some

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Speaker 3: fragmentation of the global economy. We'll have just in case

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Speaker 3: rather than just in time. Global supply chains will have

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Speaker 3: reshoring and French shoring rather than off shoring. We'll have

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Speaker 3: emphasis on economics security rather than efficiency. So the process

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Speaker 3: call it off the risking of decoupling. But this is ongoing,

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Speaker 3: It's going to continue over time.

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Speaker 1: Just thought it just because of the huge response. Are

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Speaker 1: particularly a YouTube live chat nor Roubini right now on

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Speaker 1: the dash of bitcoin. The idea of it's in ETFs

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Speaker 1: we can put in our retirement accounts. I believe it's

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Speaker 1: a limited, scarce resource. Obviously the price is going up.

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Speaker 1: What's the quality of the price increase in bitcoin right now?

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Speaker 1: The nature of it.

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Speaker 3: Listen, bitcoin used to be ten thousand, when to a

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Speaker 3: pick of sixty nine thousand late in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 3: then fell to fifteen thousand. Now it's above sixty thousand.

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Speaker 3: It's so volatile they can go higher, it can go

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Speaker 3: over and by the way, not just bitcoin, but the

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Speaker 3: entire crypto space. They call them cryptocurrencies. But anybody who

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Speaker 3: knows anything about currencies, money, monetary policy knows these are

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Speaker 3: not currencies. For some t be currency, there's to be

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Speaker 3: a unit of account. Nothing is priced in bitcoin. There's

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Speaker 3: to be a scalable means of payment. You can do

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Speaker 3: only six transactions per second with bitcoin, you can do

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Speaker 3: fifty thousand with divis a network. There's to be a

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Speaker 3: stable store of value. Can go up by ten percent

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Speaker 3: one day, can go down twenty percent another day. And

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Speaker 3: there's to be a single numeror so we can compare

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Speaker 3: prices of different goods and services. It's not a unit

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Speaker 3: of account. It's not the scalable means of payment. It's

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Speaker 3: not the stable store of value. It's not a single

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Speaker 3: numeror so. Whatever they are, you cannot call them currencies.

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Speaker 3: They are not currencies.

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Speaker 2: No, I agree with that.

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Speaker 3: So that's a fact. And even the supporters of bitcoin

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Speaker 3: don't anymore believe that's going to become a means of payment.

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Speaker 3: Nobody's using it as a means of payment nowhere around

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Speaker 3: the world, even El Salvador, where bitcoin was made legal tender,

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Speaker 3: the amount of transactions and goods and services are using

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Speaker 3: bitcoin is less than one percent. This is a legal tender.

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Speaker 3: People are not going to use it for transactions period.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, doctor Ribini, you said, Ol Salvadore, You're taking me

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Speaker 2: exactly where I want to go. I want to talk

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Speaker 2: about the geopolitical risk premium that is or is not

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Speaker 2: embedded in market, specifically as it relates to these elections

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Speaker 2: we're seeing, right, I mean, we've seen quite a few

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Speaker 2: elections already here to date, and we're going to see

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Speaker 2: some big ones coming through. I'm thinking India, I'm thinking

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Speaker 2: South Africa. I mean, talk to us a little bit

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Speaker 2: about election risk in the market. Should investors be concerned

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Speaker 2: about that?

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Speaker 3: Well, there are tons of elections, even in important countries,

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Speaker 3: but let's say in India, mode is going to get

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Speaker 3: re elected. The only issues by which margin? And I

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Speaker 3: think that the global impact, even of stuff happening in

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Speaker 3: South Africa is going to be minimum day and seem

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Speaker 3: I have less power or more power, We don't know.

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Speaker 3: The only election that matters for the global economy and

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Speaker 3: markets is the US election. And it matters not just

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Speaker 3: because of geopolitics of what are going to be the

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Speaker 3: foreign policy of Trump Biden on China, Russia, Ukraine, on Europe,

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Speaker 3: on the Middle East. But most importantly is the economic policy. Yes,

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Speaker 3: said I'm going to impose a ten percent time if

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Speaker 3: on all imports come in the US when the average

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Speaker 3: tart is two percent. He said, I'm going to impost

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Speaker 3: tariffs in China of up to sixty percent. And he said, well,

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Speaker 3: I'm going to also renew the tax cuts that passed

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Speaker 3: to another one point five three do dollar deficits over

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Speaker 3: the next decade when the deficit are out of control.

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Speaker 3: So I think the fiscal risk and the trade protection

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Speaker 3: we risk could really derail the market and slow down

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Speaker 3: economic growth and increase inflation. That's the biggest stories coming

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Speaker 3: from Trump.

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Speaker 1: I got forty two seconds. What was the book when

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Speaker 1: you were a kid, the gut you going in economics

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Speaker 1: and international finance? What was the book that changed or

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Speaker 1: obinion when you were.

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Speaker 3: A Well, there was a book by Jeffrey Sachs that

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Speaker 3: was on this tacktlation of the nineteen seventies where we

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Speaker 3: had the old Shock of seventy three seventy nine. Was

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Speaker 3: the first book that spoke about the terms tactlation and

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Speaker 3: was the period of time exactly where you had lower growth,

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Speaker 3: recession and inflation and now we're facing fifty years later.

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Speaker 3: There seems I'm gonna.

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Speaker 1: Put that book out on Twitter and LinkedIn, and I've

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Speaker 1: got another Jeff six book where he was way out

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Speaker 1: front on the dumbing down of America. Noi Roubini thinks

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Speaker 1: it's been way too long now that you're Professor Emeritis.

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Speaker 1: He's holding court. He's over at the Samet Regius breakfast

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Speaker 1: or the Regency Hotel breakfast. He's he's very eretis. This

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Speaker 1: is a early hallmark to get us started in a week,

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Speaker 1: and it is Jim Bianco of Chicago's Bianco Research, who

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Speaker 1: has a research note that the entire street hangs on,

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Speaker 1: and they do because he synthesizes us together. Our economics

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Speaker 1: are finance, our investment, and indeed pulls in some international

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Speaker 1: relations as well. Jim, you talked about resilient rates. It

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Speaker 1: was an Arch call six months nine months ago or so.

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Speaker 1: I would suggest we've gotten a Bianco market where there's

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Speaker 1: disinflation ory tendencies and then rates don't come down. How

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Speaker 1: do you recalibrate that into the second quarter of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four.

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be recalibrated by people changing

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Speaker 4: their expectations about the Fed. You know, the old line

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Speaker 4: on Wall Street was the Fed hikes until something breaks.

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Speaker 4: And the assumption six or nine months ago was all

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Speaker 4: the hiking and those high interest rates obviously broke something right. Well,

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Speaker 4: turns out maybe it didn't. We thought for a moment

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Speaker 4: a year ago was the banking system, but it survived

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Speaker 4: that as well. So now we're starting to see everybody

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Speaker 4: push off those rate cuts into the future. March is

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Speaker 4: now priced out as a rate cut meeting. May has

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Speaker 4: priced out as a rate cut meeting. June is still

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Speaker 4: a rate cut meeting, but that's the four months away

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Speaker 4: or three months away. Excuse me. There's a lot of

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Speaker 4: data that could come, and the data recently has been

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Speaker 4: very strong. So the recalibration, I think, is going to be,

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Speaker 4: as I like to jokingly say, the rate cuts are

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Speaker 4: going to always be sixty or ninety days away, and

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Speaker 4: in sixty or ninety days, they're going to be sixty

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Speaker 4: to ninety days away.

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Speaker 2: Jim, you know, I'm wondering, you know, wack when the

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Speaker 2: market was pricing in something on the out of one

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty basis points of cuts only a few

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Speaker 2: months back. Do you think that the market was pricing

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Speaker 2: in the risk that something would break, And in your opinion,

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Speaker 2: have we gotten past that? I mean, should we not

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Speaker 2: be concerned about you know, reserve repo facilities, the plumbing,

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Speaker 2: the TGA and the US Treasury market. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: something were to break, what do you think that might

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Speaker 2: happen here in the US?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? No, I think that the market was pricing in

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Speaker 4: this idea back in January when we had six rate cuts,

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Speaker 4: that the rate hikes had broken something, that we were

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Speaker 4: going to have a soft landing, inflation was going to

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Speaker 4: go down to two percent, or maybe we were even

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Speaker 4: going to have a recession. And now the reality is

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Speaker 4: that that isn't happening. Sure, we should be always concerned

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Speaker 4: that there is going to be a problem in the

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Speaker 4: plumbing of the financial system, or some geopolitical event or

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Speaker 4: something else that's unforeseen. But that's not how this FED works.

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Speaker 4: They work on data dependency. Show me data that shows

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Speaker 4: that things have turned south. Don't give me a narrative

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Speaker 4: that there's a problem out there. And the show me

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Speaker 4: data is not there right now. It's actually pretty strong.

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Speaker 4: And the inflation rate in the inflation data I've been

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Speaker 4: arguing might be bottoming right now, somewhere in the high

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Speaker 4: twoes to low threes on a year over year basis

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Speaker 4: on most of the headline numbers.

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Speaker 1: And that's the second time we've heard that this morning. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean this is you know, people are catching up

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Speaker 1: with Bianco.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they're no landing scenario, right. I mean, look, I

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Speaker 2: mean that's really where I'm My question for you, Jim,

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Speaker 2: is where are we in the interest rate cycle here?

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Speaker 4: I mean are we?

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Speaker 2: I mean we've seen this backup here in US Treasury

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Speaker 2: deals that's largely driven by real rates, by growth expectations.

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Speaker 2: You know, what are your thoughts on growth as we

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Speaker 2: look ahead into the end of really into March.

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Speaker 4: Well, if potential growth is two and a half percent,

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Speaker 4: we've had six quarters in a row now where we've

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Speaker 4: been at potential or above it. There has been no

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Speaker 4: soft landing, there has been no recession. And it looks

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Speaker 4: like the first quarter is tracking to be at potential

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Speaker 4: or potentially above it too for a seventh quarter. And

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Speaker 4: I think that that's going to continue, as I like

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Speaker 4: to jokingly say, unless I wake up someday and my

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg is full of red headlines and everybody's hyperventilating. Well,

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Speaker 4: then I'll change my forecast if that happens. But short

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Speaker 4: of that, we're going to continue with this no landing,

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Speaker 4: and we're going to continue with what looks like bottoming inflation,

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Speaker 4: and slowly we're going to drag more and more people

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Speaker 4: into this camp.

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Speaker 1: In the original medical moment we were in, and I

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Speaker 1: think we still we don't know where we were in

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Speaker 1: the pandemic coming out of it. I got too many

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Speaker 1: people Jim Bianco telling me the pandemic's over, and I

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Speaker 1: just don't buy it. I look at the stimulus that

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Speaker 1: was derived from multiple stimuli, and also I look at

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Speaker 1: the debt build up of the federal government. Are we

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Speaker 1: getting a nominal GDP group that makes everybody feel good

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Speaker 1: simply because we've had a debt overlay over seventy two months?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think so. I mean, if you really want

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Speaker 4: to boil it down, there's two many main drivers of

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Speaker 4: higher nominal GDP. The first one is big government spending

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Speaker 4: of the deficit. The government is just spending so much

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Speaker 4: money right now, it's almost going to be hard to

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Speaker 4: have a recession. And the second one is the savings

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Speaker 4: rate ran it around six percent a pre pandemic that

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Speaker 4: means that for every dollar somebody made, they spent ninety

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Speaker 4: four cents of it. Today, the savings rate is running

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Speaker 4: at four percent. For every dollar they make, they spend

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Speaker 4: ninety six percent of it. That increased consumption is what's

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Speaker 4: been pushing the economy too, and has been providing support

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Speaker 4: for the inflation story. People are spending more money on things,

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Speaker 4: and this is after inflation, so it's more units of

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Speaker 4: things are buying. It's not just that the prices are higher.

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Speaker 4: That is going to keep the economy strong until those

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Speaker 4: two dynamics change. Either the government spends less money and

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Speaker 4: they're not going to unless there's a crisis that forces them,

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Speaker 4: or people's propensity to spend slows down. And I just

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Speaker 4: don't see that happening right now.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean the nominal GDP. What's your GDP

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Speaker 1: run rate? Giving your idea that rates will stay high

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Speaker 1: or will be resilient, what is your real GDP? A

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Speaker 1: nominal GDP call forward.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's on my headstone right now because I've got

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Speaker 4: three percent on inflation, two and a half percent on

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Speaker 4: nominal GDP, two and a half percent on growth real growth,

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Speaker 4: three percent in inflation five and a half on nominal GDP,

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Speaker 4: and ultimately I think that that's where interest rates are

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Speaker 4: going to go. It's to five and a half percent.

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Speaker 4: And that's what's on my headstone. That everybody's freaking out

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Speaker 4: that the rates could go that high. I think they

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Speaker 4: can and they won't break anything if they get that high.

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Speaker 4: That's the part that everybody seems to miss about that call.

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Speaker 1: Uh fascinating and folks, I can't say enough about a

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Speaker 1: five percent plus nominal GDP just solves a lot of

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Speaker 1: problems corporations. It's just it's just like the beautiful, wonderful thing.

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Speaker 2: I can't believe we're talking about a five percent nominal GDP.

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Speaker 1: I cannot.

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Speaker 2: Trying to ask.

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Speaker 1: Jimaco way out in front of this Bianco research there

433
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:05,400
Speaker 1: from spring training for the White Sox and the Cubs.

434
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,160
Speaker 1: Mick Moory joins us right now. He's former US Deputy

435
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 1: Assistant Secretary of Fence. Damien is going to dive here

436
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 1: into Gaza in Ukraine and arrest Nick. I want to

437
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:23,919
Speaker 1: talk to you about your philanthropy, which is something that

438
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: is hugely Germane and that is child soldiers. How pervasive

439
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:37,320
Speaker 1: is it that we have incredibly young people in various

440
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: nations military.

441
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 5: Also good to be with you, guys, and I really

442
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 5: appreciate you bringing that up. So it is one of

443
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 5: those stories of conflicts that doesn't get told enough because

444
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,679
Speaker 5: it is not only pervasive, but it's increasing rapidly. Because

445
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 5: what we see is essentially these wars start generally speaking,

446
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,479
Speaker 5: adults fight them, sometimes not, but over time it's there

447
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 5: is a lot of kids on the battlefield and they

448
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 5: are expandable. Quite frankly, these wars happen in countries where

449
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:12,280
Speaker 5: not a lot of people to pay attention to, and

450
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,960
Speaker 5: the people that actually populate these militias in these in

451
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 5: these armies are from the places where people don't in

452
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,879
Speaker 5: the country, don't play much attention to. So this is

453
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 5: a really bad problem. In twenty nineteen alone, it doubled

454
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 5: in the Middle East, so Syria and Theemen are big examples,

455
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 5: and it is it is just one of those things

456
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 5: that you know, quite frankly, if adults want to start

457
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 5: the wars, they should They should be the ones fighting

458
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,400
Speaker 5: and dying in it, and not some twelve year old

459
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 5: kid that was forced to do that.

460
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 2: Well, Mick, the American war machine is appears to be

461
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 2: in a state of disrepair right, and time is running short.

462
00:23:46,320 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: You know, I'm curious to hear thoughts on that. You know,

463
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 2: what must the US do in order to rate the

464
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,240
Speaker 2: ship there and you know, get funding to you know,

465
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: places like Ukraine and Israel.

466
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 5: So it's absolutely essential, and it is in charity, you know.

467
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,080
Speaker 5: You hear people say like, oh, I, we've just given

468
00:24:01,119 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 5: this money away. This is in our own national security interest. Yes,

469
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 5: it is the right thing to do. When a partner

470
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:11,600
Speaker 5: is in harm's way, you support them. But it's not

471
00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:17,080
Speaker 5: just for that. The United States relative strength is compared

472
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:21,760
Speaker 5: to our adversary. So Ukraine, for example, has caused up

473
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 5: to three hundred thousand casualties of the Russian military. I mean,

474
00:24:26,880 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 5: just think about how much that actually is. And they've

475
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 5: depleted the Russian military force by over fifty percent. So

476
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,200
Speaker 5: they are basically fighting one of our most significant adversary

477
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 5: and probably our most dangerous and unpredictable one. So by

478
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,679
Speaker 5: doing this, our forces, our troops don't need to be

479
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 5: on the ground and fighting them should they go past Ukraine,

480
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,920
Speaker 5: which of course the next stop is a NATO country

481
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 5: in Poland. So this is something that is completely within

482
00:24:57,240 --> 00:25:00,480
Speaker 5: the US's national security interest. To do, and we need

483
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:03,639
Speaker 5: to do it now because essentially there's parts of the

484
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 5: battle space right now where the Ukrainians are running out

485
00:25:06,880 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 5: of ammunition and that can't happen. They obviously they have

486
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 5: all the fighting will in the world. We've seen that,

487
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 5: they prove that, but if they don't have the means,

488
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 5: then they won't be able to fight long.

489
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:20,399
Speaker 2: Israel has really lost control of the narrative in the

490
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 2: Middle East. I'm curious to hear thoughts on what they

491
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,680
Speaker 2: can do, at least from a pr perspective to write

492
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: the ship with players such as Turkey, Brazil, the United

493
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,879
Speaker 2: Nations itself, the rest of the Middle East. You know,

494
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on what Israel is doing today

495
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 2: and what it can be doing differently?

496
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 5: So I do think, you know, obviously they're strategic objective

497
00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:43,239
Speaker 5: of the military destruction or at least the degradation of

498
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,719
Speaker 5: Hamas makes sense to anybody that I think is fair minded.

499
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 5: They can't have that tinme of attack and that kind

500
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 5: of element that they saw in October seventh and that

501
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 5: we see in Hamas, which by the way, claims to

502
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 5: care about the Palestinian people, but they obviously do not.

503
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 5: They amongst them, They try to keep aid from them,

504
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 5: They try to actually create, in my opinion, a worst

505
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 5: situation that already is for their own political aims. But

506
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:12,120
Speaker 5: what kin Israel do. I think the first thing they

507
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 5: can do is to increase the flow of the humanitarian

508
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 5: aid into Gaza. We are at a starvation level, especially

509
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 5: in the north where there's around three hundred thousand people

510
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 5: that are living in the rubble that are have gone

511
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 5: to eating animal feed, grass, flower mixed with salt water.

512
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 5: It is a crisis level and that is something I

513
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 5: think they could do right now. I don't know if

514
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 5: they'll get credit for it. They should if they do,

515
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 5: but that is something that needs to happen.

516
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 1: What's so important here, and whether we're talking to General Ki,

517
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:49,600
Speaker 1: General Hodges or you, it's the idea that, Okay, we

518
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 1: have a Pentagon that we can deploy, but in the

519
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 1: case of Ukraine, we've got to deploy it within a

520
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 1: mix of allies with different opinions, including our own, particularly

521
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: with an isolation as to the marrit and then with Gaza,

522
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: we've got a deploy to do an ally, it really

523
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 1: doesn't want us to deploy it. What do we do

524
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 1: with mister Netnahu in domestic political israel Is, we're dropping

525
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:17,760
Speaker 1: parachutes and boxes on the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.

526
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 5: Right, And I think everybody would recognize that that is

527
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 5: largely symbolic. It was about a truck and a half

528
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 5: worth of material that was dropped in those air drops.

529
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 5: Obviously for the people who received it, it was good.

530
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 5: But that's not even going to come close to meeting

531
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 5: the demand, so we have to go beyond that. I

532
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 5: think there's obviously a tension between the current administration in

533
00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:47,119
Speaker 5: Israel and ours, and I think that and that's something

534
00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 5: that's going to make it even more difficult when it

535
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,400
Speaker 5: comes to how we work together to both allow Israel

536
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 5: to defeat Hamas but also put it on a track

537
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 5: so this doesn't continuously happen. And I think most would

538
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,280
Speaker 5: say that would be forty two state solution, but one

539
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 5: in which the Israelis have a partner in a revitalized

540
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 5: Palestinian authority, and obviously not one in which Hamas is

541
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 5: in charge of any kind of future Palestinian state. But

542
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 5: I do think that tension is we're seeing it right now.

543
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 5: We see Benny Gantz in the United States, somebody who's

544
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 5: very well known to American policymakers. He was the Defense

545
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 5: AA for Israel in Washington, and that is a very

546
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:30,680
Speaker 5: significant role. It usually leads right into being the chiefest

547
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 5: staff of the Israeli defense forces. So he is well

548
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 5: known and he is somebody I think that both sides

549
00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 5: of the Aisle feel like they can work with very closely.

550
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 5: But reportedly that really enraged Prime Minister ned Yahoo. So

551
00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 5: obviously the Israelis have to decide who's going to be

552
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 5: their leader. But that is a tension that I think

553
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 5: will exist until there's a switch at the top.

554
00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: Nick, Thank you so much, greatly appreciated. Today they're on

555
00:28:54,400 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: our international relations Now A look at the front pages.

556
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 5: What's making news around the world.

557
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,200
Speaker 1: Your daily roundup of today's headlines from major publications. Your

558
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,000
Speaker 1: daily look at the front pages around the world, brought

559
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: to you by Damien Sassar and Interactive Brokers IBKRS Redesigned

560
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: Fundamentals Explorer. It provides comprehensive worldwide fundamentals data to clients

561
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: at no cost. Take your research, take your research to

562
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 1: the next level. Visit ibkr dot com Fundamentals Explore ibkr

563
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 1: dot com. The newspapers this weekend, Lisa had like eight choices.

564
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 1: Where'd you go with, kiddo?

565
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 6: All right, we're starting with space SPACEXS Falcon rocket that

566
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 6: had gonna blasted off over the weekend. Kennedy Space Center

567
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 6: was carrying four astronauts headed to the International Space Station.

568
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 6: They're going to stay there for six months, and they

569
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,800
Speaker 6: say they're going to oversee the arrival of two new

570
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 6: rocket chips. So they should re that orbiting lab tomorrow.

571
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 6: But pretty interesting more from SpaceX kind of blasting these

572
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 6: astronauts out.

573
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 2: There's only six months, huh only I mean, I mean

574
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 2: compared to the Russians way there.

575
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: For six years, right, But this is the difference between

576
00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: man and unmanned. The last unmanned to the Moon that

577
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 1: landed what two weeks ago?

578
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 6: Yes, it was a sobering fell over the tip.

579
00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:26,280
Speaker 1: Yeah I fell over this weekend too. But the answer

580
00:30:26,400 --> 00:30:28,960
Speaker 1: is man just is different, isn't it. What do you

581
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: got next?

582
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 6: All right, Tesla? When you drive cars, do you have

583
00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 6: a certain loyalty to the brand. That's what this new

584
00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 6: study is about. So more than half of people who

585
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 6: brought a new car in twenty twenty three bought the

586
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:44,480
Speaker 6: same brand they had last time, Tesla actually claimed that

587
00:30:44,760 --> 00:30:47,959
Speaker 6: higher loyal owenty than any other brand. So people love

588
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 6: their Tesla's now if you go to automakers, not individual brands,

589
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 6: GM got that top spot, you know, the Buick, Cadillac,

590
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 6: Chevy GMC, so it's all about the loyalty. Like me personally,

591
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 6: it's a hard Tesla.

592
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean Elon must started this. Everybody's cutting

593
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 1: their cost and I saw some used card depreciation of

594
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 1: a Tesla of forty or fifty percent.

595
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 2: Tom My close friend rented a Tesla when we were

596
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,680
Speaker 2: in Florida. I didn't I'm afraid to rent any sort

597
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 2: of electronic vehicle.

598
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 7: That's just me.

599
00:31:15,000 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 2: But he rented one and it just conked out on

600
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 2: him and in the middle of his vacation he had

601
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 2: to go change his car with the rental company, like

602
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,600
Speaker 2: something went wrong there. It was a Tesla, unfortunately. I

603
00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: hate to say that, but you know, I'm still scared

604
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 2: of electronic vehicles.

605
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 1: I have to say, Lisa, what do you think would

606
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: you run it? Would you run an ag?

607
00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 6: No, I'm going to stick. I love Hondas like they

608
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 6: go hundreds of thousands of miles and they keep on ticking.

609
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 6: That's why I love them, and.

610
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: They're bringing their old Hondas back to twenty eighteen in.

611
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 5: For a car play upgrade. Oh on Apple Car playing.

612
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: A Honda up. I believe it's twenty eighteen. You can

613
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: bring it in like Lisa Mantello, wait Hers is two thousands,

614
00:31:54,080 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 1: one thousand.

615
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 4: Nineteen, way back.

616
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 6: Sure tell you they keep going next. Do you remember Clippy? Okay?

617
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 6: Clippy was from Microsoft. It was this little paper clip

618
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 6: that like would pop up and tell you things that

619
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 6: you already knew, like it looks like you're writing a letter,

620
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 6: would you like help or you know? It was all

621
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 6: those certain things. It was forced into retirement.

622
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 7: Okay, So y'all said.

623
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 6: It is experiencing a comeback. Okay. So in June, this

624
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 6: software developer he rebooted him as an AI chatbot, hench Ai.

625
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: There you go.

626
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:28,440
Speaker 6: Thousands of people downloaded his app. But the problem is

627
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 6: that he put its chatting capabilities on open ais GPT software.

628
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 6: Microsoft didn't like that very much. So now it's rebranded.

629
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:39,719
Speaker 6: It's called paper Clip instead of Clippy.

630
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:42,680
Speaker 2: At least I love to be interrupted when I'm working,

631
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 2: you know, I mean Clippy used to come on every

632
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,479
Speaker 2: single time I was doing anything I couldn't get him

633
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 2: off my screen.

634
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: And if you had an underpowered computer, I mean Damien

635
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: d he had the Mac computer.

636
00:32:54,920 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 7: Was at Soltram sixteen megabisons Ram Folks, those of you younger,

637
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,800
Speaker 7: you have no idea how police the scene or mezzo

638
00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:06,719
Speaker 7: scene it was with Clippy.

639
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 1: Clippy would literally crash your computer. We had a lot

640
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 1: I do want to say quickly here. Yes, we had

641
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: a huge announcement coming up on what we're going to

642
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 1: ford here on technology and some of my conductors. I'll

643
00:33:17,520 --> 00:33:19,320
Speaker 1: be making that in the next I got to hold

644
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: meetings with important people.

645
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 6: That's right.

646
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 1: You have one more?

647
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 6: One more? What's how did you ever notice how much

648
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 6: you pay for a cheeseburg? What's the left cheeberg?

649
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 5: Your order?

650
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 6: How much you pay for it?

651
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 1: After thought gets you know? I don't.

652
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 6: I just bugs they're saying it's going for like sixteen dollars.

653
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you get the people would smoke bacon and

654
00:33:37,960 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: the fried egg and the whole smash.

655
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 4: I mean, which is what I like to do?

656
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 6: Would you like to go for the one?

657
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: Really like it? Like a loaded burger now at McDonald's

658
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: is double digits, it's over ten bucks.

659
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 6: Not so much the facts, but like if you go

660
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,960
Speaker 6: to a restaurant, so the restaurant would say down and

661
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 6: you enjoy it. You know, the big, healthy, juicy burgers.

662
00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 6: They're costing more. Restaurants say they're struggling, so they got

663
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 6: to jack up the prices. But they're also starting to

664
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 6: do other things too. They are switching to cheaper shoe

665
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 6: string potatoes instead of the thick cut fries, so you

666
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,320
Speaker 6: might not get those big thick cut from anywhere.

667
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:16,840
Speaker 1: Good morning, Michaels over fifty. Michaels is not switching the flies.

668
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 6: They're keeping the thick cut. Have either of you?

669
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:22,280
Speaker 2: Who ever been to White Man at Hackensack Burger's best Burgers?

670
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: Oh my god, white Man at Hackensack, New Jersey. For

671
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 2: you Bergen County guys in the now, you gotta go,

672
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 2: gotta go.

673
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,959
Speaker 6: You're just a fun I do wonder how much those

674
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 6: are Lisa Tao going forward.

675
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 1: Thank you so much the newspapers here. Subscribe to the

676
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,640
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you

677
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:43,959
Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven

678
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot com. The iHeartRadio app tune

679
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: in and the Bloomberg Business App. You can watch us

680
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 1: live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal.

681
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keene and this his Bloomber