WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2019 Fantasy Football preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.160 Check it down Man Now Down Now. Tuesday morning, August 0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:18.400 twenty Reading the Book podcast Fantasy Football Special, Warren Sharp 0:00:18.520 --> 0:00:22.239 on the show to talk about the schedules faced doing 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:24.520 it his way, Which are the most difficult, which are 0:00:24.560 --> 0:00:27.480 the easiest. Then we'll hear from Jeff Ratlin from Pro 0:00:27.520 --> 0:00:32.000 Football Focus. He's got answers to some big fantasy questions 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:34.760 going into the fantasy football season. We'll close it out 0:00:35.080 --> 0:00:38.160 with her old friend Todd Right, He's got perspective as well. 0:00:38.360 --> 0:00:40.800 It's all brought to you today by The Football Analytics Show. 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:44.360 It's a podcast run by Ed Fang, frequent guests on 0:00:44.400 --> 0:00:47.080 the Megapod, and during the final two weeks of August 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:50.239 he's doing the Preview Series. It's a set of ten 0:00:50.280 --> 0:00:53.800 episodes of ten minutes each that previews the season. Ten 0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:58.720 episodes of ten minutes each. I like them kind of nuggets. 0:00:58.920 --> 0:01:01.160 Both college football and fil will be covered. Of course. 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.440 It's The Football Analytics Show. You can find it on 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:07.720 Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. Check that out. 0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.959 In the meantime, enjoy the Fantasy Football Special on the 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:14.399 Beating the Book podcast and won those gidiots and believe 0:01:14.440 --> 0:01:19.280 in analytics, analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers, 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.000 and Gil has every number you need to cash your 0:01:22.040 --> 0:01:25.040 tickets now live from the Visa in studios in the 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:28.880 South Point Hotel and Casino. It's Gil Alexander, our number 0:01:28.920 --> 0:01:30.800 two of a numbers game right here in Visa. We're 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:34.120 sports betting analytics, live, actionable sports betting information. Serious except 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:36.240 Channel two O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App. 0:01:36.400 --> 0:01:40.200 Perhaps you prefer Foobo TV or Sling or Game Plus 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:43.839 throughout Canada New York City. I like, I'm just happy 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:46.080 you're on any of them, tuning us in. We appreciate 0:01:46.120 --> 0:01:49.320 it here. Jeff Parls, producing number five is here as well. Uh, Jeff, 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.880 always a treat when we bring in this gentleman. He 0:01:51.880 --> 0:01:56.120 has his own professional football preview guide each and every offseason, 0:01:56.360 --> 0:02:01.040 and that's about thing number ten in his world these days, 0:02:01.320 --> 0:02:03.520 ladies and gentlemen, it's the great Warren Sharp. Good morning 0:02:03.520 --> 0:02:06.920 to you. Warren Hey, good morning Gil. Happy to join 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.080 you again. I'm looking forward to the start of the 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:13.480 season and hopefully the first of many conversations I hope. So, Warren, 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.359 first of all, before you even got on Airge, the 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:18.880 last segment I just went through the Doctor David Chow 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:21.440 portion of your preview guide, and I was reading off 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.200 his thoughts on on injuries of certain players Cam Newton, 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:29.440 Todd Gurley, Sony Michelle, and Darius Guys. Good lord man, 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:33.560 that put me in a bad mood as a Redskin fan. Well, 0:02:33.600 --> 0:02:36.280 that coupled with you know the fact that this has 0:02:36.320 --> 0:02:38.519 been the most injured team in the NFL for the 0:02:38.600 --> 0:02:43.000 last five years. Uh, their field is a terrible travesty. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.320 And uh they don't do a very good job of 0:02:45.360 --> 0:02:49.360 resigning players. You know, if there's plenty to uh to 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:52.560 check into some counseling over other than that, Mrs Lincoln, 0:02:52.560 --> 0:02:55.239 what happened at the play? Um? Before we get to 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:57.480 the strength of schedule stuff from you, I just want 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:59.440 to cherry pi because now your preview guys. First of all, 0:02:59.440 --> 0:03:01.960 how long does it take you to put together your preview? Guy, 0:03:02.040 --> 0:03:05.720 Because it would take me from now to like mid 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:10.960 August to fully digest every nugget in there. What's that process? Like? Yeah, 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.240 and and that's actually not a bad thing, Um to 0:03:14.280 --> 0:03:17.120 spend some time with it and dive in. So I 0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.359 pretty much you know, the Super Bowl is the beginning 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:21.320 of February. I took a little bit of time off 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:25.519 immediately thereafter, and then I start going through updating statistics, 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:29.400 updating metrics that are going to be used for the 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:34.040 guide comprising the entire season, updating all of the visualizations 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:35.680 that are in here. And that's one of the things 0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:38.440 for listeners. You can't see it. You know, it's it's 0:03:38.720 --> 0:03:42.480 full color. It's full color. Every team has seven pages 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:46.040 devoted to metrics that are color coded and coordinated, so 0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:48.960 it's easy for you to see which players in which 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.480 which areas your team is doing well in and poorly 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:54.800 in UM And never came that it's a visualized uh 0:03:55.240 --> 0:03:59.200 learning tool, uh from the color coding perspective at any rate. Yeah, 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:02.760 then pretty much working on it UM from i'd say, 0:04:02.800 --> 0:04:06.560 like early March all the way through till the end 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:10.000 of June when I publish it, and especially the last month. 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.400 I mean, I'm working just as much as I am 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.360 during the season when I'm consulting for some teams, and 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:18.520 and that's pretty much until like three am every night. Uh, 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:20.920 So I don't get a whole lot of sleep, you know. 0:04:21.040 --> 0:04:23.240 In in the month of May. It's tough because you 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:28.680 have to incorporate NFL draft related information, and that sometimes changes, uh, 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.360 some of your perspectives on the direction of team is heading. 0:04:32.400 --> 0:04:35.120 As you know, Gil, you know, certain draft picks apart 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:41.600 from quarterback don't actually modify a team's win total. That addically, however, 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:46.440 it sort of impacts your thought process on what this 0:04:46.480 --> 0:04:49.480 team is valuing and what direction they're headed, and some 0:04:49.520 --> 0:04:51.400 of the trades they might make in the draft and 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:53.960 players they might acquire in exchange for picks, and so 0:04:54.320 --> 0:04:56.240 there's a lot of you know, the right up is 0:04:56.640 --> 0:05:00.360 in the narrative, forces a lot of theoretical dis rushing 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:04.279 about the team's philosophies, and so you can't do any 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.880 of that until the draft has occurred. Alright, let me 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.520 try to try to address a couple of dangling participles 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:11.400 there which which we brought up. One. First of all, 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:15.360 where do people get the preview guide? So the best 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:17.159 place for me to get it is if you go 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:20.479 to short Football Analysis dot com. We completely revamped that 0:05:20.600 --> 0:05:22.800 site and we've brought in on a lot of new 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:26.800 writers or providing content. We're really excited about the website. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:31.159 But you could buy the PDF version there um and 0:05:31.720 --> 0:05:33.680 the other way you can get it if you want 0:05:33.680 --> 0:05:36.960 to have the printed copy, which I makes per copy 0:05:37.000 --> 0:05:40.280 on by the way, is over at Amazon, and that's 0:05:40.320 --> 0:05:42.440 the way that you can get the full color book. Now, 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:44.440 I will admit, even though I make a lot more 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:48.440 money on you purchasing it from the website. Uh, I 0:05:48.520 --> 0:05:51.520 love having a printed copy to to just thumb through 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.479 and have my fingertips on. But there are those people 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:58.160 that for PDF, and so we certainly are offering that 0:05:58.200 --> 0:06:00.240 as well. All right, the PDF option and then the 0:06:00.720 --> 0:06:03.760 hard copy, which makes warrant twenty one cents per per issue. 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:06.520 You decide whichever one you want. And the other thing 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:09.400 there is you threw it in. You did very casually 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.560 their warrant Before we get into this, you threw it. 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:16.440 I will be consulting for NFL teams plural. Uh. Please 0:06:16.480 --> 0:06:20.400 explain what you can about that? Well, yeah, I was. 0:06:20.560 --> 0:06:24.600 I was then approached this offseason by almost ten teams 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:28.800 to do consulting workforce. Some we're interested in full time 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:32.119 roles that would have required me to, you know, jump 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:37.120 off everything Twitter, social media, leave the this world and 0:06:37.160 --> 0:06:39.520 go live in their city and work for their team. 0:06:39.520 --> 0:06:41.239 And I got to need a lot of different people 0:06:41.240 --> 0:06:44.320 with those teams from you know, the GM to the 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.120 head coach to the offense coordinated, all the all the 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:50.520 people founded, the strength and conditioning guys, and it was 0:06:50.560 --> 0:06:55.520 a great process. UM. Ultimately, I'm still remaining in a 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:59.120 in a consulting role for UM a couple of different 0:06:59.120 --> 0:07:03.880 teams UH this upcoming season, and I'm super excited about 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:07.920 doing that kind of kind of trying to implement some 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:10.680 of the strategies that I've come up with UH and 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:14.920 actually make them have real success on the field on 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:19.240 Sundays and and that's always a challenge, but it's very 0:07:19.280 --> 0:07:22.480 rewarding at the same time when it works. Man, Congratulations 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:24.640 to you Warrant. I know this is a long time coming. 0:07:24.680 --> 0:07:27.040 It's been a it's been hard work through the years, 0:07:27.040 --> 0:07:29.680 and no one deserves it more than you do. So Mozel, 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.280 top to you on that. As far as your guide 0:07:32.360 --> 0:07:34.800 is concerned, here, there's no way we can do it 0:07:34.880 --> 0:07:37.000 justice here in two segments. But let me just let 0:07:37.080 --> 0:07:39.120 me throw out a few nuggets here before we get 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:40.640 to some strength of schedule stuff. Let me throw out 0:07:40.640 --> 0:07:42.920 a few nuggets and this is just from the very 0:07:43.080 --> 0:07:46.400 first section of your book, UM, and I'm gonna try 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:49.640 to aggravate a few fan bases here, Buffalo Bills. This 0:07:49.720 --> 0:07:52.120 might even be from from your first section in the book, 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.320 Buffalo Bills. Uh. The Bills called the most runs on 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:58.040 second and ten plus yards plays to go in the 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.920 NFL last year, running the ball on forty percent of 0:08:01.960 --> 0:08:05.480 those play calls. Those runs produced a successful gain just 0:08:05.640 --> 0:08:08.520 twenty one percent of the time. Because of their early 0:08:08.600 --> 0:08:11.960 downplay calling, the Bills faced third and eight point three 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:15.280 yards to go on average, the longest distance to go 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.960 in the National Football League. Now, correct me if I'm wrong, 0:08:19.000 --> 0:08:23.320 but didn't Lashawn McCoy the previous year just do unbelievable 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.040 things with the Bill's offense, putting him in the worst 0:08:26.080 --> 0:08:28.840 possible situations. I think that. I think I recall that 0:08:28.880 --> 0:08:31.720 as well. Is there any hope for you? Given that? 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:33.679 And again so much what you and I talked about 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:36.520 with Crackman through the football season is all right, You've 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:38.840 identified the problem. Do you have any confidence in the 0:08:38.880 --> 0:08:43.520 coaching staff figuring that out right? Well? The you know, 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:47.200 the bigger kind of underlying steam here is that, unfortunately 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.240 a lot of coaches believe that they're going to quote 0:08:50.280 --> 0:08:54.560 unquote protect their rookie quarterbacks by running the ball a 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:58.000 lot by being conservative on early downs and will only 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:00.280 pass the ball when we need to, which is when 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:03.200 we're in third and long situations. Well, you know, when 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:06.360 when you get in these second inten situations you gotta 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.960 try to pass the ball. You can't You're not gonna 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:11.480 get enough efficiency running it, and then you're going to 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:14.720 be stuck in situations where you're being predictable on third 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:17.720 and long. And the key for offenses you must realize. 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:21.320 Offensive coordinators must realize that all the chips are in 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:25.120 your stack. Like you control so much and dictate so much, 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:28.080 the rules are explaanted in your favor. The one thing 0:09:28.200 --> 0:09:32.160 you can't give up is predictability towards the defense. When 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:35.200 you do that, you're just giving them portions of your chips. 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:39.280 And uh, you cannot be in predictable situations. So uh, 0:09:39.520 --> 0:09:42.840 voluntarily choosing to be in third and long situations because 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:46.720 you're calling run plays on second intent is a terrible decision. 0:09:46.800 --> 0:09:49.760 They thought they were protecting Josh Allen. They actually compounded 0:09:49.760 --> 0:09:52.120 this situation and made it worse on Josh Allen because 0:09:52.160 --> 0:09:55.880 of these third and very long situations. It can improve 0:09:55.960 --> 0:09:58.800 if they feel like Josh Allen is no longer a rookie, 0:09:58.840 --> 0:10:00.200 maybe we can put a little bit more are on 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:03.920 his plate. So in this situation, I think it could 0:10:03.920 --> 0:10:07.160 improve a little bit for Bill's fans, But I still 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:09.839 think at their core they're probably going to be to 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:13.520 run oriented than I would prefer. Denver Broncos war And 0:10:13.559 --> 0:10:16.360 we're talking to Warren Sharp at Sharp Football on Twitter, 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:20.120 Great Great Football follow through the season. I mean sometimes 0:10:20.200 --> 0:10:24.400 Warren's rants on Twitter or epic Uh, Denver Broncos. Uh, 0:10:24.679 --> 0:10:27.200 your point, arm strength does not equate to efficient deep 0:10:27.200 --> 0:10:30.280 passing and twenty eighteen, Joe Flacco ranked thirty second of 0:10:30.360 --> 0:10:34.280 thirty three quarterbacks on deep passes. His thirty four percent 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:38.280 completion rate was also thirty second. In seventeen, Flacco ranked 0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.880 thirty one thirty two quarterbacks on deep as is. His 0:10:40.920 --> 0:10:44.760 thirty two percent completion rate was also thirty one. Flacco 0:10:44.840 --> 0:10:48.600 twenty nine thirty one quarterbacks on deep asses completion rate 0:10:48.840 --> 0:10:51.800 ranked thirty over the last three years combined of twenty 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:55.520 seven qualifying quarterbacks with enough deep attempts, Flacco's deep passing 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.160 ranks dead last in the NFL. As you point out, 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.280 Joe Flacco may have a big arm but it hasn't 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:03.080 held at all with his ability to make deep throws yet. 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:05.000 And by the way, the bill season win total, who 0:11:05.000 --> 0:11:07.560 we just talked about with seven, So is the Broncos 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:11.880 right at seven um still better off with Flacco or 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:15.439 or are we trying to say maybe not so much? Well, 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:18.640 if you're I think John Elway. The problem with John 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:21.679 Alway is he's so infatuated with arm strength, right Like, 0:11:21.720 --> 0:11:24.400 that's the number one that he talks about when he's 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:28.760 looking at quarterback prospects is arm strength because he had 0:11:28.840 --> 0:11:31.520 a decent arm and so that's what he thinks makes 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:34.439 a great quarterback. In Joe Flacco's case, yes, he can 0:11:34.480 --> 0:11:36.920 throw the ball far, he's got a good arm, but 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:41.280 his accuracy, his success on this passes is terrible. So 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:43.240 what are you actually getting. You're getting a guy you 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:45.640 can throw it far but not well. Um, I don't 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.120 think that's beneficial. And the other thing that we know 0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.400 is that it's not about your arm. Mike Leach talked 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:54.160 about it at slow in this pass off season. It's 0:11:54.160 --> 0:11:57.560 about your accuracy. That's the number one. Uh. You know, 0:11:57.600 --> 0:12:00.160 there's a number of tenants that Mike Leach, professor, is 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:04.040 that the quarterback must have an accuracy is the best one. 0:12:04.440 --> 0:12:07.480 And you can't teach accuracy. You just are accurate or 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.120 you're not. You just have that kind of ability to 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:14.120 judge depth, perception and speed and you know distance and 0:12:14.360 --> 0:12:17.840 how you got to pass the football. Joe Flacco is 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:21.680 not that accurate. So um, I'm not saying he's a 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.520 downgrade over what they've had in the past few years. 0:12:24.559 --> 0:12:28.040 There he could be an upgrade, but he's certainly not 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.959 a good quarterback just because he has arm strength. And 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.439 I think you know, John Alway continues to fail and 0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:37.400 draft these big, tall guys with strong arms like brock 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:41.360 all Swiler who have been colossal disasters and he hasn't 0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.079 learned his lesson. We'll see how Joe Flacco pans out 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.120 for him. Man, I'm sitting here, Smiley Warren because I 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.439 can't wait for football season because we you me crack 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:51.600 Michael Lombardi when he's on this show. We spend so 0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:55.080 much time talking about the mind boggling thing my modeling 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:58.880 things that coaches and organizations doing the National Football League. 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.000 Let me pick on just and more. The Oakland Raiders, 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:04.600 UH soon to be in Las Vegas. Uh, there's a 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.000 note here Tom Cable, and again we're just cherry picking 0:13:07.040 --> 0:13:09.560 stuff from about Warren's Pro Football Guide, his twenty nineteen 0:13:09.559 --> 0:13:12.440 Pro Football preview. Guy Tom Cable's an offensive line coach. 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:17.679 Here's his lines, rankings and pass protection during Tom Cable's 0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.199 NFL career. Again, Tom Cable with the Oakland Raiders. Now 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.360 UH six Atlanta thirty one? Is that a thirty two? 0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:35.559 UH seven, Oakland seven, OAKLANDTE nine, oaklandte Oakland Silen, Seattle, Seattle, 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:45.520 U Seattle thirty second, dead last Seattle, Seattle, Seattle seventeen, 0:13:45.520 --> 0:13:48.679 Seattle twenty five. Last year, Oakland twenty five. And it 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.920 should be pointed out in many of these cases, the 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.679 year prior to his arrival, the team's offensive lines and 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:58.719 pass protection were top ten operations in many cases. And 0:13:58.800 --> 0:14:01.199 then he took over. And yet here he is offensive 0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:03.559 line coach with the Oakland Raiders. When you see stuff 0:14:03.600 --> 0:14:07.480 like that, are you just like what's going on here? Yeah? 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:13.040 I mean we too Many fans assume that the coaching 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:18.360 staff understands everything, the owners are making good decisions, that 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.800 if the team isn't winning, it's largely because players aren't executing. 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:28.720 Players are making mistakes the reality is that oftentimes the 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.480 person in charge of hiring some of these people just 0:14:31.840 --> 0:14:34.920 doesn't have the numbers at their fingertips. They don't have 0:14:35.000 --> 0:14:39.400 the understanding, nor do they care. And a perfect example 0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:42.760 is Tom Cable. I mean, this guy, he's made four 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:46.840 different stops. He's bottomed ten virtually everywhere he's been. He 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:50.960 makes offensive lines worse when he starts coaching them, and 0:14:51.200 --> 0:14:54.520 the longer he's with them, oftentimes they get worse. So 0:14:55.320 --> 0:15:00.360 this guy is a problem as a NFL offensive line coach. Um, 0:15:00.560 --> 0:15:04.040 And you know, it's just mind boggling, nothing more to say. 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.680 I don't know why he keeps getting jobs. Greater season 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:12.680 win total six um again over slightly juiced minus one thirty. 0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:15.720 These courtesy of the Westgate season win totals in the lines. 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:17.760 The individual game lines you see on the screen all 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.640 courtesy of CG Technology. I could go on and on, 0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:23.120 but again it's just a flavor for what you can 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:28.640 find nuggets in Warren Sharp's Pro Football preview guide. UM, So, 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.040 just generally speaking that because I won't pick on anyone 0:15:31.080 --> 0:15:36.040 individually here anymore, but generally speaking, what are the teams Warren? 0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:40.360 The team war teams that you feel shuns analytics the 0:15:40.480 --> 0:15:44.320 most or just has the most general lack of awareness 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.120 of most of the tenants that you point out in 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:51.960 your guide at chart football Stats and a chart Football Analysis. Uh, well, 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.920 there's there's a couple of teams that, um, you know, 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:59.200 have talent and they're not using analytics enough to help 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.800 get them over the edge. The two teams that perhaps 0:16:02.840 --> 0:16:07.120 are the most talented but aren't using enough analytics out there, 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.280 in my opinion, are the Seattle Seahawks in the l 0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:15.400 A Chargers. I mean, these are perennial playoff contenders, um, 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.440 and over the last several years. You know, in the 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.320 Chargers case longer than that, they can't get over that hump. 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.800 And you know for the Chargers their cases, they just 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:28.240 don't do enough there. They've started to throw the football 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:31.280 to the running backs more so. That's great, that's perfectly 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:33.200 in line on early downs with what you're supposed to 0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.560 be doing. But I mean, I just wrote an article 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:39.160 up at her Football Analysis earlier today. Philip Rivers has 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:43.360 started every single game since Deal, every single game. No 0:16:43.520 --> 0:16:47.240 quarterback has started more games than him. The best play 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:50.160 on short yard is is a quarterback sneak. They convert 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:52.440 about seventy eight percent at a time running back you 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:56.120 hand off to them about worse conversion rate. How many 0:16:56.200 --> 0:16:59.920 quarterback sneaks does Philip Rivers have in those four years 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:02.200 since two thous of fifteen when he started every single 0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.840 game one one sneak? It makes no sense. Brady's got 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:09.800 like thirty eight. Even a guy like Drew Brees, shorter, 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:15.960 smaller than both Uh Brady and Philip Rivers, has attempts 0:17:16.000 --> 0:17:18.399 and he's converted twenty six of them into first dound that. 0:17:20.000 --> 0:17:23.119 The fact that Philip Rivers refuses two quarterbacks snake the 0:17:23.119 --> 0:17:26.200 ball in these short yard of situations, it's amazing. Yeah, 0:17:26.280 --> 0:17:29.320 it's it's it's almost worn, like it's written into his 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.840 contract if you didn't know any better. Right, Like, you 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:35.040 never see Philip Rivers quarterback sneake, You never see Ben 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:39.119 Roethlisberger run play action like it just doesn't happen like 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.199 as often as it should. And you point out at 0:17:41.280 --> 0:17:43.520 some point in the book to Uh, these are two 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:45.680 things we've talked about on the show before. But that's 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:47.680 a thing with the Steelers. They just don't Why aren't 0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:50.879 they running more play action? Play action helps tremendously in 0:17:50.960 --> 0:17:52.960 certain situations with the Seahawks. So you mentioned it's all 0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:55.600 about they run too much. Uh, it's just so many 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.480 fascinating tidbits. We'll come back, war We'll take a break. 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:00.880 I want to get into some strength schedule stuff because 0:18:00.880 --> 0:18:04.000 you do that very well. It's Warren Sharp from at 0:18:04.040 --> 0:18:06.680 Sharp Football on Twitter, Sharp football stats dot com, Sharp 0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:09.800 football Analysis dot com. We'll talk more about his preview 0:18:09.800 --> 0:18:12.160 guide straight the schedule. Next on a Numbers game at Visa. 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.640 Down Back to a Numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander, 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:18.800 broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas. 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.080 Back on the Numbers game, Sports Betting Analytics Live Gil 0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.560 Alexander right here at Visa in Series XM, Channel two. 0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:26.879 Oh for Warren Sharp, kind enough to join us this 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:29.760 morning for a spell. Warren, just before the break, I 0:18:29.800 --> 0:18:31.720 asked you, what are the team war teams in the 0:18:32.000 --> 0:18:37.639 National Football League that are least embracing of analytics, And 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.960 you said, of the teams with talent it would have 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:42.480 of a lot of talent, would be the Chargers in 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.399 the Seahawks. If we took away that qualifier of the 0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:48.200 teams with talent, and let's just set all thirty two teams, 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:52.000 with the Redskins being number one on that list. Well, 0:18:52.119 --> 0:18:56.520 they would be close. Um. They certainly are problematic with 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.879 their run rate on early downs. It got worse with 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.240 the Dream Peterson. You know, Jake Gruten's infatuated with that, 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:08.119 and uh, it's very unproductive. And the problem is that 0:19:08.280 --> 0:19:11.320 now they may be starting. I mean, for while you 0:19:11.400 --> 0:19:12.959 thought there he was doing it because he didn't love 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.280 his quarterbacks, but I mean Kirk Cousins was giving him 0:19:15.280 --> 0:19:18.320 a certain level of play. Uh. And you know, they 0:19:18.560 --> 0:19:21.040 continue to run the football stage. Maybe it was maybe 0:19:21.320 --> 0:19:23.119 Jay didn't think as highly as Kirk. Okay, Well, so 0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:24.959 they brought in Alex Smith to hand picked them. They 0:19:25.000 --> 0:19:27.479 still were doing it. Without Alex Smith, they still were 0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:30.879 doing it. And now you've got either case Keenum or 0:19:31.080 --> 0:19:34.719 possibly a rookie, and I think they're probably still going 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:37.560 to continue to run too much. Now. They did hire 0:19:37.960 --> 0:19:41.480 an analytics guy, uh this this upcoming season to try 0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:44.440 to assist them. How much though influence he will be 0:19:44.520 --> 0:19:47.879 able to have over like play calls in that capacity, 0:19:48.520 --> 0:19:51.360 uh is I'm skeptical of. But we'll see. I Mean, 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:54.080 I always hope that teams change their ways and do 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:58.280 things more intelligently. But I take a realistic approach to it, 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:01.879 a pragmatic approach. And you know, Jake Gluten, you know 0:20:02.080 --> 0:20:04.640 it can't change his stripes back quickly. I don't think. Yeah, 0:20:04.640 --> 0:20:06.840 if they push Scott mcluin out, they can push anybody 0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:10.000 out in d C. Uh famous Sloan sports conference with you. 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:12.120 By the way, we're on a panel for this past year, 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:14.320 so it congratulates to you on that, but a famous one. 0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:16.000 A couple of years ago, few years back, I ran 0:20:16.040 --> 0:20:19.040 into Matthew Berry from ESPN Fantasy Guy, who of course 0:20:19.119 --> 0:20:21.840 is a huge Redskin fan as well for those who 0:20:21.880 --> 0:20:24.000 don't know, from d C, and I said, does it 0:20:24.119 --> 0:20:26.520 bother you, like the the only NFL team not here 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:28.800 of the Redskins, and and he looked around, he goes, yeah, 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.600 actually it does. So just not very exciting for those 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.400 of us who would like the Redskins to approach things 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.359 perhaps with a little more brain power. All right, So, Warren, 0:20:39.640 --> 0:20:42.200 strength of schedule, we talked about this every year, and 0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:44.000 we talked a little bit about it earlier in the 0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:47.640 off season when season win totals were first coming out. 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:51.520 But break this down for us in terms of the 0:20:51.880 --> 0:20:56.879 easiest and hardest past defenses run defenses faced. However, you 0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:02.320 wanna to parse it out right, So I think first, 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:05.080 I mean, we have to understand just who who are 0:21:05.160 --> 0:21:09.120 you facing? Um and the team that has the most 0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:14.840 interesting schedule variants from the team season is the Houston Texans, 0:21:14.920 --> 0:21:17.000 and we talked about that before. They have my number 0:21:17.040 --> 0:21:19.119 one easiest schedule last year. They have the number one 0:21:19.200 --> 0:21:22.320 most difficult UH schedule this year, and other teams that 0:21:22.400 --> 0:21:26.960 are grouped near them are the Broncos, the Raiders, and 0:21:27.080 --> 0:21:30.040 now the Dolphins. The Dolphins as I've adjusted my strength 0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.320 of schedule analytics based on some tweaks that Vegas has 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:35.520 made to the season win totals. By the way, there 0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:38.040 really hasn't been a whole lot of movement which season 0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:40.320 totals since they've opened. It's a it's been a kind 0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:43.879 of a unique year. Imagine we'll see more as training 0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:47.000 camps open and injuries start to occur. But Um and 0:21:47.119 --> 0:21:49.200 the Titans also have a very difficult schedule. On the 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:51.800 flip side of that, the teams that I projected, what 0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:53.760 a month or two ago with you to have the 0:21:53.800 --> 0:21:57.160 easiest schedule still have the easiest schedules. Of Patriots, of course, 0:21:57.160 --> 0:21:59.680 because they play in the NFC starr of the FC East. 0:22:00.119 --> 0:22:02.240