Speaker 1: Check it down Man Now Down Now. Tuesday morning, August
Speaker 1: twenty Reading the Book podcast Fantasy Football Special, Warren Sharp
Speaker 1: on the show to talk about the schedules faced doing
Speaker 1: it his way, Which are the most difficult, which are
Speaker 1: the easiest. Then we'll hear from Jeff Ratlin from Pro
Speaker 1: Football Focus. He's got answers to some big fantasy questions
Speaker 1: going into the fantasy football season. We'll close it out
Speaker 1: with her old friend Todd Right, He's got perspective as well.
Speaker 1: It's all brought to you today by The Football Analytics Show.
Speaker 1: It's a podcast run by Ed Fang, frequent guests on
Speaker 1: the Megapod, and during the final two weeks of August
Speaker 1: he's doing the Preview Series. It's a set of ten
Speaker 1: episodes of ten minutes each that previews the season. Ten
Speaker 1: episodes of ten minutes each. I like them kind of nuggets.
Speaker 1: Both college football and fil will be covered. Of course.
Speaker 1: It's The Football Analytics Show. You can find it on
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. Check that out.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, enjoy the Fantasy Football Special on the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book podcast and won those gidiots and believe
Speaker 1: in analytics, analytics, statistics and more are used to win wagers,
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Speaker 1: Perhaps you prefer Foobo TV or Sling or Game Plus
Speaker 1: throughout Canada New York City. I like, I'm just happy
Speaker 1: you're on any of them, tuning us in. We appreciate
Speaker 1: it here. Jeff Parls, producing number five is here as well. Uh, Jeff,
Speaker 1: always a treat when we bring in this gentleman. He
Speaker 1: has his own professional football preview guide each and every offseason,
Speaker 1: and that's about thing number ten in his world these days,
Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen, it's the great Warren Sharp. Good morning
Speaker 1: to you. Warren Hey, good morning Gil. Happy to join
Speaker 1: you again. I'm looking forward to the start of the
Speaker 1: season and hopefully the first of many conversations I hope. So, Warren,
Speaker 1: first of all, before you even got on Airge, the
Speaker 1: last segment I just went through the Doctor David Chow
Speaker 1: portion of your preview guide, and I was reading off
Speaker 1: his thoughts on on injuries of certain players Cam Newton,
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley, Sony Michelle, and Darius Guys. Good lord man,
Speaker 1: that put me in a bad mood as a Redskin fan. Well,
Speaker 1: that coupled with you know the fact that this has
Speaker 1: been the most injured team in the NFL for the
Speaker 1: last five years. Uh, their field is a terrible travesty.
Speaker 1: And uh they don't do a very good job of
Speaker 1: resigning players. You know, if there's plenty to uh to
Speaker 1: check into some counseling over other than that, Mrs Lincoln,
Speaker 1: what happened at the play? Um? Before we get to
Speaker 1: the strength of schedule stuff from you, I just want
Speaker 1: to cherry pi because now your preview guys. First of all,
Speaker 1: how long does it take you to put together your preview? Guy,
Speaker 1: Because it would take me from now to like mid
Speaker 1: August to fully digest every nugget in there. What's that process? Like? Yeah,
Speaker 1: and and that's actually not a bad thing, Um to
Speaker 1: spend some time with it and dive in. So I
Speaker 1: pretty much you know, the Super Bowl is the beginning
Speaker 1: of February. I took a little bit of time off
Speaker 1: immediately thereafter, and then I start going through updating statistics,
Speaker 1: updating metrics that are going to be used for the
Speaker 1: guide comprising the entire season, updating all of the visualizations
Speaker 1: that are in here. And that's one of the things
Speaker 1: for listeners. You can't see it. You know, it's it's
Speaker 1: full color. It's full color. Every team has seven pages
Speaker 1: devoted to metrics that are color coded and coordinated, so
Speaker 1: it's easy for you to see which players in which
Speaker 1: which areas your team is doing well in and poorly
Speaker 1: in UM And never came that it's a visualized uh
Speaker 1: learning tool, uh from the color coding perspective at any rate. Yeah,
Speaker 1: then pretty much working on it UM from i'd say,
Speaker 1: like early March all the way through till the end
Speaker 1: of June when I publish it, and especially the last month.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm working just as much as I am
Speaker 1: during the season when I'm consulting for some teams, and
Speaker 1: and that's pretty much until like three am every night. Uh,
Speaker 1: So I don't get a whole lot of sleep, you know.
Speaker 1: In in the month of May. It's tough because you
Speaker 1: have to incorporate NFL draft related information, and that sometimes changes, uh,
Speaker 1: some of your perspectives on the direction of team is heading.
Speaker 1: As you know, Gil, you know, certain draft picks apart
Speaker 1: from quarterback don't actually modify a team's win total. That addically, however,
Speaker 1: it sort of impacts your thought process on what this
Speaker 1: team is valuing and what direction they're headed, and some
Speaker 1: of the trades they might make in the draft and
Speaker 1: players they might acquire in exchange for picks, and so
Speaker 1: there's a lot of you know, the right up is
Speaker 1: in the narrative, forces a lot of theoretical dis rushing
Speaker 1: about the team's philosophies, and so you can't do any
Speaker 1: of that until the draft has occurred. Alright, let me
Speaker 1: try to try to address a couple of dangling participles
Speaker 1: there which which we brought up. One. First of all,
Speaker 1: where do people get the preview guide? So the best
Speaker 1: place for me to get it is if you go
Speaker 1: to short Football Analysis dot com. We completely revamped that
Speaker 1: site and we've brought in on a lot of new
Speaker 1: writers or providing content. We're really excited about the website.
Speaker 1: But you could buy the PDF version there um and
Speaker 1: the other way you can get it if you want
Speaker 1: to have the printed copy, which I makes per copy
Speaker 1: on by the way, is over at Amazon, and that's
Speaker 1: the way that you can get the full color book. Now,
Speaker 1: I will admit, even though I make a lot more
Speaker 1: money on you purchasing it from the website. Uh, I
Speaker 1: love having a printed copy to to just thumb through
Speaker 1: and have my fingertips on. But there are those people
Speaker 1: that for PDF, and so we certainly are offering that
Speaker 1: as well. All right, the PDF option and then the
Speaker 1: hard copy, which makes warrant twenty one cents per per issue.
Speaker 1: You decide whichever one you want. And the other thing
Speaker 1: there is you threw it in. You did very casually
Speaker 1: their warrant Before we get into this, you threw it.
Speaker 1: I will be consulting for NFL teams plural. Uh. Please
Speaker 1: explain what you can about that? Well, yeah, I was.
Speaker 1: I was then approached this offseason by almost ten teams
Speaker 1: to do consulting workforce. Some we're interested in full time
Speaker 1: roles that would have required me to, you know, jump
Speaker 1: off everything Twitter, social media, leave the this world and
Speaker 1: go live in their city and work for their team.
Speaker 1: And I got to need a lot of different people
Speaker 1: with those teams from you know, the GM to the
Speaker 1: head coach to the offense coordinated, all the all the
Speaker 1: people founded, the strength and conditioning guys, and it was
Speaker 1: a great process. UM. Ultimately, I'm still remaining in a
Speaker 1: in a consulting role for UM a couple of different
Speaker 1: teams UH this upcoming season, and I'm super excited about
Speaker 1: doing that kind of kind of trying to implement some
Speaker 1: of the strategies that I've come up with UH and
Speaker 1: actually make them have real success on the field on
Speaker 1: Sundays and and that's always a challenge, but it's very
Speaker 1: rewarding at the same time when it works. Man, Congratulations
Speaker 1: to you Warrant. I know this is a long time coming.
Speaker 1: It's been a it's been hard work through the years,
Speaker 1: and no one deserves it more than you do. So Mozel,
Speaker 1: top to you on that. As far as your guide
Speaker 1: is concerned, here, there's no way we can do it
Speaker 1: justice here in two segments. But let me just let
Speaker 1: me throw out a few nuggets here before we get
Speaker 1: to some strength of schedule stuff. Let me throw out
Speaker 1: a few nuggets and this is just from the very
Speaker 1: first section of your book, UM, and I'm gonna try
Speaker 1: to aggravate a few fan bases here, Buffalo Bills. This
Speaker 1: might even be from from your first section in the book,
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. Uh. The Bills called the most runs on
Speaker 1: second and ten plus yards plays to go in the
Speaker 1: NFL last year, running the ball on forty percent of
Speaker 1: those play calls. Those runs produced a successful gain just
Speaker 1: twenty one percent of the time. Because of their early
Speaker 1: downplay calling, the Bills faced third and eight point three
Speaker 1: yards to go on average, the longest distance to go
Speaker 1: in the National Football League. Now, correct me if I'm wrong,
Speaker 1: but didn't Lashawn McCoy the previous year just do unbelievable
Speaker 1: things with the Bill's offense, putting him in the worst
Speaker 1: possible situations. I think that. I think I recall that
Speaker 1: as well. Is there any hope for you? Given that?
Speaker 1: And again so much what you and I talked about
Speaker 1: with Crackman through the football season is all right, You've
Speaker 1: identified the problem. Do you have any confidence in the
Speaker 1: coaching staff figuring that out right? Well? The you know,
Speaker 1: the bigger kind of underlying steam here is that, unfortunately
Speaker 1: a lot of coaches believe that they're going to quote
Speaker 1: unquote protect their rookie quarterbacks by running the ball a
Speaker 1: lot by being conservative on early downs and will only
Speaker 1: pass the ball when we need to, which is when
Speaker 1: we're in third and long situations. Well, you know, when
Speaker 1: when you get in these second inten situations you gotta
Speaker 1: try to pass the ball. You can't You're not gonna
Speaker 1: get enough efficiency running it, and then you're going to
Speaker 1: be stuck in situations where you're being predictable on third
Speaker 1: and long. And the key for offenses you must realize.
Speaker 1: Offensive coordinators must realize that all the chips are in
Speaker 1: your stack. Like you control so much and dictate so much,
Speaker 1: the rules are explaanted in your favor. The one thing
Speaker 1: you can't give up is predictability towards the defense. When
Speaker 1: you do that, you're just giving them portions of your chips.
Speaker 1: And uh, you cannot be in predictable situations. So uh,
Speaker 1: voluntarily choosing to be in third and long situations because
Speaker 1: you're calling run plays on second intent is a terrible decision.
Speaker 1: They thought they were protecting Josh Allen. They actually compounded
Speaker 1: this situation and made it worse on Josh Allen because
Speaker 1: of these third and very long situations. It can improve
Speaker 1: if they feel like Josh Allen is no longer a rookie,
Speaker 1: maybe we can put a little bit more are on
Speaker 1: his plate. So in this situation, I think it could
Speaker 1: improve a little bit for Bill's fans, But I still
Speaker 1: think at their core they're probably going to be to
Speaker 1: run oriented than I would prefer. Denver Broncos war And
Speaker 1: we're talking to Warren Sharp at Sharp Football on Twitter,
Speaker 1: Great Great Football follow through the season. I mean sometimes
Speaker 1: Warren's rants on Twitter or epic Uh, Denver Broncos. Uh,
Speaker 1: your point, arm strength does not equate to efficient deep
Speaker 1: passing and twenty eighteen, Joe Flacco ranked thirty second of
Speaker 1: thirty three quarterbacks on deep passes. His thirty four percent
Speaker 1: completion rate was also thirty second. In seventeen, Flacco ranked
Speaker 1: thirty one thirty two quarterbacks on deep as is. His
Speaker 1: thirty two percent completion rate was also thirty one. Flacco
Speaker 1: twenty nine thirty one quarterbacks on deep asses completion rate
Speaker 1: ranked thirty over the last three years combined of twenty
Speaker 1: seven qualifying quarterbacks with enough deep attempts, Flacco's deep passing
Speaker 1: ranks dead last in the NFL. As you point out,
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco may have a big arm but it hasn't
Speaker 1: held at all with his ability to make deep throws yet.
Speaker 1: And by the way, the bill season win total, who
Speaker 1: we just talked about with seven, So is the Broncos
Speaker 1: right at seven um still better off with Flacco or
Speaker 1: or are we trying to say maybe not so much? Well,
Speaker 1: if you're I think John Elway. The problem with John
Speaker 1: Alway is he's so infatuated with arm strength, right Like,
Speaker 1: that's the number one that he talks about when he's
Speaker 1: looking at quarterback prospects is arm strength because he had
Speaker 1: a decent arm and so that's what he thinks makes
Speaker 1: a great quarterback. In Joe Flacco's case, yes, he can
Speaker 1: throw the ball far, he's got a good arm, but
Speaker 1: his accuracy, his success on this passes is terrible. So
Speaker 1: what are you actually getting. You're getting a guy you
Speaker 1: can throw it far but not well. Um, I don't
Speaker 1: think that's beneficial. And the other thing that we know
Speaker 1: is that it's not about your arm. Mike Leach talked
Speaker 1: about it at slow in this pass off season. It's
Speaker 1: about your accuracy. That's the number one. Uh. You know,
Speaker 1: there's a number of tenants that Mike Leach, professor, is
Speaker 1: that the quarterback must have an accuracy is the best one.
Speaker 1: And you can't teach accuracy. You just are accurate or
Speaker 1: you're not. You just have that kind of ability to
Speaker 1: judge depth, perception and speed and you know distance and
Speaker 1: how you got to pass the football. Joe Flacco is
Speaker 1: not that accurate. So um, I'm not saying he's a
Speaker 1: downgrade over what they've had in the past few years.
Speaker 1: There he could be an upgrade, but he's certainly not
Speaker 1: a good quarterback just because he has arm strength. And
Speaker 1: I think you know, John Alway continues to fail and
Speaker 1: draft these big, tall guys with strong arms like brock
Speaker 1: all Swiler who have been colossal disasters and he hasn't
Speaker 1: learned his lesson. We'll see how Joe Flacco pans out
Speaker 1: for him. Man, I'm sitting here, Smiley Warren because I
Speaker 1: can't wait for football season because we you me crack
Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi when he's on this show. We spend so
Speaker 1: much time talking about the mind boggling thing my modeling
Speaker 1: things that coaches and organizations doing the National Football League.
Speaker 1: Let me pick on just and more. The Oakland Raiders,
Speaker 1: UH soon to be in Las Vegas. Uh, there's a
Speaker 1: note here Tom Cable, and again we're just cherry picking
Speaker 1: stuff from about Warren's Pro Football Guide, his twenty nineteen
Speaker 1: Pro Football preview. Guy Tom Cable's an offensive line coach.
Speaker 1: Here's his lines, rankings and pass protection during Tom Cable's
Speaker 1: NFL career. Again, Tom Cable with the Oakland Raiders. Now
Speaker 1: UH six Atlanta thirty one? Is that a thirty two?
Speaker 1: UH seven, Oakland seven, OAKLANDTE nine, oaklandte Oakland Silen, Seattle, Seattle,
Speaker 1: U Seattle thirty second, dead last Seattle, Seattle, Seattle seventeen,
Speaker 1: Seattle twenty five. Last year, Oakland twenty five. And it
Speaker 1: should be pointed out in many of these cases, the
Speaker 1: year prior to his arrival, the team's offensive lines and
Speaker 1: pass protection were top ten operations in many cases. And
Speaker 1: then he took over. And yet here he is offensive
Speaker 1: line coach with the Oakland Raiders. When you see stuff
Speaker 1: like that, are you just like what's going on here? Yeah?
Speaker 1: I mean we too Many fans assume that the coaching
Speaker 1: staff understands everything, the owners are making good decisions, that
Speaker 1: if the team isn't winning, it's largely because players aren't executing.
Speaker 1: Players are making mistakes the reality is that oftentimes the
Speaker 1: person in charge of hiring some of these people just
Speaker 1: doesn't have the numbers at their fingertips. They don't have
Speaker 1: the understanding, nor do they care. And a perfect example
Speaker 1: is Tom Cable. I mean, this guy, he's made four
Speaker 1: different stops. He's bottomed ten virtually everywhere he's been. He
Speaker 1: makes offensive lines worse when he starts coaching them, and
Speaker 1: the longer he's with them, oftentimes they get worse. So
Speaker 1: this guy is a problem as a NFL offensive line coach. Um,
Speaker 1: And you know, it's just mind boggling, nothing more to say.
Speaker 1: I don't know why he keeps getting jobs. Greater season
Speaker 1: win total six um again over slightly juiced minus one thirty.
Speaker 1: These courtesy of the Westgate season win totals in the lines.
Speaker 1: The individual game lines you see on the screen all
Speaker 1: courtesy of CG Technology. I could go on and on,
Speaker 1: but again it's just a flavor for what you can
Speaker 1: find nuggets in Warren Sharp's Pro Football preview guide. UM, So,
Speaker 1: just generally speaking that because I won't pick on anyone
Speaker 1: individually here anymore, but generally speaking, what are the teams Warren?
Speaker 1: The team war teams that you feel shuns analytics the
Speaker 1: most or just has the most general lack of awareness
Speaker 1: of most of the tenants that you point out in
Speaker 1: your guide at chart football Stats and a chart Football Analysis. Uh, well,
Speaker 1: there's there's a couple of teams that, um, you know,
Speaker 1: have talent and they're not using analytics enough to help
Speaker 1: get them over the edge. The two teams that perhaps
Speaker 1: are the most talented but aren't using enough analytics out there,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, are the Seattle Seahawks in the l
Speaker 1: A Chargers. I mean, these are perennial playoff contenders, um,
Speaker 1: and over the last several years. You know, in the
Speaker 1: Chargers case longer than that, they can't get over that hump.
Speaker 1: And you know for the Chargers their cases, they just
Speaker 1: don't do enough there. They've started to throw the football
Speaker 1: to the running backs more so. That's great, that's perfectly
Speaker 1: in line on early downs with what you're supposed to
Speaker 1: be doing. But I mean, I just wrote an article
Speaker 1: up at her Football Analysis earlier today. Philip Rivers has
Speaker 1: started every single game since Deal, every single game. No
Speaker 1: quarterback has started more games than him. The best play
Speaker 1: on short yard is is a quarterback sneak. They convert
Speaker 1: about seventy eight percent at a time running back you
Speaker 1: hand off to them about worse conversion rate. How many
Speaker 1: quarterback sneaks does Philip Rivers have in those four years
Speaker 1: since two thous of fifteen when he started every single
Speaker 1: game one one sneak? It makes no sense. Brady's got
Speaker 1: like thirty eight. Even a guy like Drew Brees, shorter,
Speaker 1: smaller than both Uh Brady and Philip Rivers, has attempts
Speaker 1: and he's converted twenty six of them into first dound that.
Speaker 1: The fact that Philip Rivers refuses two quarterbacks snake the
Speaker 1: ball in these short yard of situations, it's amazing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's almost worn, like it's written into his
Speaker 1: contract if you didn't know any better. Right, Like, you
Speaker 1: never see Philip Rivers quarterback sneake, You never see Ben
Speaker 1: Roethlisberger run play action like it just doesn't happen like
Speaker 1: as often as it should. And you point out at
Speaker 1: some point in the book to Uh, these are two
Speaker 1: things we've talked about on the show before. But that's
Speaker 1: a thing with the Steelers. They just don't Why aren't
Speaker 1: they running more play action? Play action helps tremendously in
Speaker 1: certain situations with the Seahawks. So you mentioned it's all
Speaker 1: about they run too much. Uh, it's just so many
Speaker 1: fascinating tidbits. We'll come back, war We'll take a break.
Speaker 1: I want to get into some strength schedule stuff because
Speaker 1: you do that very well. It's Warren Sharp from at
Speaker 1: Sharp Football on Twitter, Sharp football stats dot com, Sharp
Speaker 1: football Analysis dot com. We'll talk more about his preview
Speaker 1: guide straight the schedule. Next on a Numbers game at Visa.
Speaker 1: Down Back to a Numbers game with your host, Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: broadcasting live from our Visa in studios in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Back on the Numbers game, Sports Betting Analytics Live Gil
Speaker 1: Alexander right here at Visa in Series XM, Channel two.
Speaker 1: Oh for Warren Sharp, kind enough to join us this
Speaker 1: morning for a spell. Warren, just before the break, I
Speaker 1: asked you, what are the team war teams in the
Speaker 1: National Football League that are least embracing of analytics, And
Speaker 1: you said, of the teams with talent it would have
Speaker 1: of a lot of talent, would be the Chargers in
Speaker 1: the Seahawks. If we took away that qualifier of the
Speaker 1: teams with talent, and let's just set all thirty two teams,
Speaker 1: with the Redskins being number one on that list. Well,
Speaker 1: they would be close. Um. They certainly are problematic with
Speaker 1: their run rate on early downs. It got worse with
Speaker 1: the Dream Peterson. You know, Jake Gruten's infatuated with that,
Speaker 1: and uh, it's very unproductive. And the problem is that
Speaker 1: now they may be starting. I mean, for while you
Speaker 1: thought there he was doing it because he didn't love
Speaker 1: his quarterbacks, but I mean Kirk Cousins was giving him
Speaker 1: a certain level of play. Uh. And you know, they
Speaker 1: continue to run the football stage. Maybe it was maybe
Speaker 1: Jay didn't think as highly as Kirk. Okay, Well, so
Speaker 1: they brought in Alex Smith to hand picked them. They
Speaker 1: still were doing it. Without Alex Smith, they still were
Speaker 1: doing it. And now you've got either case Keenum or
Speaker 1: possibly a rookie, and I think they're probably still going
Speaker 1: to continue to run too much. Now. They did hire
Speaker 1: an analytics guy, uh this this upcoming season to try
Speaker 1: to assist them. How much though influence he will be
Speaker 1: able to have over like play calls in that capacity,
Speaker 1: uh is I'm skeptical of. But we'll see. I Mean,
Speaker 1: I always hope that teams change their ways and do
Speaker 1: things more intelligently. But I take a realistic approach to it,
Speaker 1: a pragmatic approach. And you know, Jake Gluten, you know
Speaker 1: it can't change his stripes back quickly. I don't think. Yeah,
Speaker 1: if they push Scott mcluin out, they can push anybody
Speaker 1: out in d C. Uh famous Sloan sports conference with you.
Speaker 1: By the way, we're on a panel for this past year,
Speaker 1: so it congratulates to you on that, but a famous one.
Speaker 1: A couple of years ago, few years back, I ran
Speaker 1: into Matthew Berry from ESPN Fantasy Guy, who of course
Speaker 1: is a huge Redskin fan as well for those who
Speaker 1: don't know, from d C, and I said, does it
Speaker 1: bother you, like the the only NFL team not here
Speaker 1: of the Redskins, and and he looked around, he goes, yeah,
Speaker 1: actually it does. So just not very exciting for those
Speaker 1: of us who would like the Redskins to approach things
Speaker 1: perhaps with a little more brain power. All right, So, Warren,
Speaker 1: strength of schedule, we talked about this every year, and
Speaker 1: we talked a little bit about it earlier in the
Speaker 1: off season when season win totals were first coming out.
Speaker 1: But break this down for us in terms of the
Speaker 1: easiest and hardest past defenses run defenses faced. However, you
Speaker 1: wanna to parse it out right, So I think first,
Speaker 1: I mean, we have to understand just who who are
Speaker 1: you facing? Um and the team that has the most
Speaker 1: interesting schedule variants from the team season is the Houston Texans,
Speaker 1: and we talked about that before. They have my number
Speaker 1: one easiest schedule last year. They have the number one
Speaker 1: most difficult UH schedule this year, and other teams that
Speaker 1: are grouped near them are the Broncos, the Raiders, and
Speaker 1: now the Dolphins. The Dolphins as I've adjusted my strength
Speaker 1: of schedule analytics based on some tweaks that Vegas has
Speaker 1: made to the season win totals. By the way, there
Speaker 1: really hasn't been a whole lot of movement which season
Speaker 1: totals since they've opened. It's a it's been a kind
Speaker 1: of a unique year. Imagine we'll see more as training
Speaker 1: camps open and injuries start to occur. But Um and
Speaker 1: the Titans also have a very difficult schedule. On the
Speaker 1: flip side of that, the teams that I projected, what
Speaker 1: a month or two ago with you to have the
Speaker 1: easiest schedule still have the easiest schedules. Of Patriots, of course,
Speaker 1: because they play in the NFC starr of the FC East.
Speaker 1: The Jets also have a very easy schedule. How do
Speaker 1: the Bills? So the a f C East plays the
Speaker 1: easy schedule of opponents throwing there the Eagles and the Browns.
Speaker 1: That's your top five easiest to overall schedules. Uh, if
Speaker 1: we want to talk about from a fantasy perspective, um
Speaker 1: as well as you know what's going to help quarterback play.
Speaker 1: And I think you've known this for a while now.
Speaker 1: We've kind of alluded to it. But when teams are
Speaker 1: when when fans are looking at, what's my team? How
Speaker 1: are we going to do this year? Keep in mind
Speaker 1: offense is more important to your wins and losses than
Speaker 1: his defense, and passing offense is more important to your
Speaker 1: wins and losses than rushing offense. To the first place
Speaker 1: you might want to start with strength of schedule is
Speaker 1: just analyzing um which teams are going to face easier,
Speaker 1: tough schedules of opposing past defenses. Taking the mind these
Speaker 1: are projections. Also taken to mind that great quarterbacks and
Speaker 1: passing offenses can overcome tough schedules. Where it hurts is
Speaker 1: where mediocre passing offenses face a tough schedule, and where
Speaker 1: it really helps is when a good passing offense faces
Speaker 1: a really easy schedule. So let's run through the five
Speaker 1: easiest schedules of passing defenses this year. Arizona partners with
Speaker 1: Cliff Kingsbury. They're going to face the number one easiest
Speaker 1: schedule of past defenses, which should be really interesting and
Speaker 1: makings fun out in Arizona with Kyler Murray obviously growing pains,
Speaker 1: but they will face the easiest schedule of past defenses.
Speaker 1: Carolina with Cam Newton. How's the should they're going to do?
Speaker 1: That's going to be interesting. The forty Niners with Jimmy
Speaker 1: Garoppolo at number three, obviously getting him back is valuable.
Speaker 1: That offense was way beyond expectations in terms of doing
Speaker 1: really good last year with backup caliber quarterbacks. I love
Speaker 1: the job that Kyle Shanahan did. Number four is the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Vikings Kirk Cousins getting another shot at having a
Speaker 1: good season this year with the new offensive coordinator. And
Speaker 1: tied at fifth are the Saints and the Bucks, two
Speaker 1: teams from the NFC South. Bruce Arians now coaching the Buck.
Speaker 1: That offense should be interesting. Obviously lost Sehn Jackson, but UH,
Speaker 1: Sean Payton and Drew Brees. Fifth easiest schedules. Look at
Speaker 1: the most difficult schedules the top five. The Chiefs hardest
Speaker 1: past schedule of any team this upcoming season. But I
Speaker 1: mentioned in the past, a great offense can overcome that,
Speaker 1: and they certainly do have a great offense and a
Speaker 1: great quarterback. But it's going to hurt teams like uh,
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Miami Dolphins, the Oakland Raiders. Those
Speaker 1: are numbers two through four in terms of the most
Speaker 1: difficult schedule of past defenses, and rounding out the rear
Speaker 1: is the Cleveland Browns. So Baker Mayfield, he struggled last
Speaker 1: year against good past defenses, but he was a rookie
Speaker 1: and he was modifying into a system that he wasn't
Speaker 1: taught in training camp because Freddie Kitchens took over. So
Speaker 1: he's gonna strike, you know, will he adapt to that
Speaker 1: in year two and play better against his tough defenses.
Speaker 1: Time will tell, But he's going to face a much
Speaker 1: more difficult schedule than he did last year. That is
Speaker 1: fascinating stuff right there, and you're right, especially the past
Speaker 1: defenses faced, especially for fantasy purposes. Uh, is really good
Speaker 1: stuff right there. Um, your fantasy guy who's also in
Speaker 1: your preview guy, is it rich Rebar? Is that how
Speaker 1: you pronounced his name? Yeah? He he also uh he
Speaker 1: he likes Jamis Winston and the Bucks did show up
Speaker 1: on your five top easiest past defenses faced. He thought
Speaker 1: that was a breakout possibility for Winston, which I found interesting.
Speaker 1: But yeah, so much of that is great fantasy information
Speaker 1: because you're right not to be taken as the gospel.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say Patrick Mahomes is going all of
Speaker 1: a sudden crater because of that. But for the other
Speaker 1: teams there, the Dolphins and the Raiders, little Baker Mayfield perhaps, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, dousing of the flame there, and then on
Speaker 1: the easiest side, you're right, Kyler Murray maybe a flyer
Speaker 1: there under Cliff Kingsbury as a very easy group of
Speaker 1: fast defenses faced, you know, assuming he'll play all all
Speaker 1: sixty games. But I mean, that stuff is great. How
Speaker 1: do you do this for rush defenses as well? Yes,
Speaker 1: definitely for rush defenses. We can run through that quickly
Speaker 1: because it's it's not gonna have as many implications for
Speaker 1: your overall, um, you know, win losses, but let's hit
Speaker 1: it anyways. The easiest schedule is going to be for
Speaker 1: the forty Niners, So um, that's going to be interesting
Speaker 1: because they have a big running back by committee there
Speaker 1: and they've got Kevin Coleman now Jacks and Kennan is healthy.
Speaker 1: They brought him in last year but towards a c
Speaker 1: L so he missed the whole year. How will he perform?
Speaker 1: Very interesting situation. Maybe not a lot of fantasy value
Speaker 1: to chew on until we see who's gonna actually take
Speaker 1: the bulk of those carries. Another team that's really interesting
Speaker 1: is the Baltimore Ravens. That number two EASIESTU team obviously
Speaker 1: loves to run the football, so they've got an easy
Speaker 1: schedule this year. Uh. This Seattle Seahawks, another team ran
Speaker 1: too much last year, but how are they going to
Speaker 1: get away from it when they've got an easier schedule
Speaker 1: of run defenses this year? And then Arizona another team
Speaker 1: they got they just have an easier schedule of overall
Speaker 1: defense UM and easy schedule run. And then number five
Speaker 1: is the Pittsburgh Steelers. So James Conner year two with
Speaker 1: him as a starter, That should be interesting. Overall the
Speaker 1: most difficult schedule of run defenses, UH, Kansas City Chiefs.
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs just played like the most difficult overall
Speaker 1: schedule of opposing defenses. UM, and it's very tough against
Speaker 1: run defenses. I still think that Damian Williams what he
Speaker 1: does in the past game and what he can contribute
Speaker 1: in the run game, couple with how terrible Carlos Hide
Speaker 1: really is. I mean, look at the stats. I had
Speaker 1: a tweet about him yesterday. Guys terrible, He's I doubt
Speaker 1: he's going to take away substantial carries from Damian Williams.
Speaker 1: So I still like him in fantasy a lot. Um
Speaker 1: green Bay, you know it's going to be interesting now
Speaker 1: before wants to start running the football more and being
Speaker 1: a little up more balanced. But Green Bay faces the
Speaker 1: second most difficult schedules run defenses. Your team the Washington
Speaker 1: Redskins Tennessee for the third most difficult schedule of run defenses.
Speaker 1: And of course, you know Jake Gruden likes to run
Speaker 1: the football lot. So does the Tennessee Titans, and they're
Speaker 1: gonna have to do so against tough schedule run defenses.
Speaker 1: In the Atlanta Falcons Round, up the bottom five as
Speaker 1: the most difficult run defensive space warrant. That is outstanding stuff.
Speaker 1: Last question before I let you go, though Chief's toughest
Speaker 1: they're in They're among the toughest when they face past defenses.
Speaker 1: They're also among the toughest rush defense schedules they're facing.
Speaker 1: I have to word that properly. So Chiefs once again,
Speaker 1: the past defenses and rush defenses they face, uh, their
Speaker 1: number one in the toughest in those categories. But yet
Speaker 1: they're not in the top five of the toughest overall schedules. Uh.
Speaker 1: In terms of the defenses they face. They are in
Speaker 1: terms of the schedule. In terms of the overall schedule,
Speaker 1: they ranked twenty if so they have what is that like,
Speaker 1: the eight toughest schedule of overall opponents they face based
Speaker 1: on wind totals, But they will be facing the most
Speaker 1: difficult schedule of opposing defenses this year based on my projection.
Speaker 1: Got you Okay? That clarifies it for me? Okay, same thing,
Speaker 1: by the way, I was gonna ask for the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: but I guess that was the distinction. It's it's tough,
Speaker 1: it's really easy defense as they face, but not necessarily overall.
Speaker 1: Is their schedule that easy? It's really on that side
Speaker 1: of the ball. Um Warren Sharp again at Sharp Football,
Speaker 1: Sharp Football Analysis dot Com, Sharp Football Stats dot Com,
Speaker 1: and again the preview guide for everybody on the way out,
Speaker 1: warrant work. Can they get that Sharp Football Analysis dot
Speaker 1: Com if you want the pdf or Sharp or just
Speaker 1: go on Amazon if you want the printed book and
Speaker 1: just search for Warren Sharp's football Preview. All right, Warrant
Speaker 1: appreciate it. We'll talk to you during the season, my friend.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Joe Warren Sharp, best in the business, right there,
Speaker 1: kind enough to join us in years past each and
Speaker 1: every Thursday with Bill Crackenburger round table here on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game at Visa, and we go through that week's
Speaker 1: NFL schedule and we of course rail on stuff we
Speaker 1: saw the previous season. Hopefully we can get Warred to
Speaker 1: do that this year. He's a busy man, though. We'll
Speaker 1: try to, uh, we'll try to get him to do
Speaker 1: it again, back for another season. Support for today's show
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Speaker 1: with your host Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our visa
Speaker 1: in studios in Las Vegas. Back on the numbers game.
Speaker 1: Right here at Visa were sports betting analytics live accitable
Speaker 1: sports betting information here at Serious except Channel two four. Uh,
Speaker 1: first time on the show. Real happy to have this
Speaker 1: gentleman on from Pro Football Focus, also a serious XM
Speaker 1: host himself. Ladies and gentlemen, Jeff Radcliffe, good morning to you, Jeff,
Speaker 1: Good morning, glad to be here. I appreciate it, man, Jeff.
Speaker 1: I have a buddy who's in the Mountain time zone
Speaker 1: who told me before the show, when I told him
Speaker 1: you were coming on, he said, please tell Jeff. I'm
Speaker 1: a little upset because his time slot changed for him.
Speaker 1: So now he like he doesn't hear you going into work.
Speaker 1: Now he has to play you in a podcast as motive.
Speaker 1: When can people hear you? Right now? We are on
Speaker 1: at one eastern on Serious x M Fantasy Sports Radio.
Speaker 1: So that's to ten on sirius and x M A
Speaker 1: D seven And hey to my friend in the Mountain
Speaker 1: time zone. I I wish I had to stay I'm
Speaker 1: on the air, but we know it doesn't work that way. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we do. Well. He well, he'll appreciate the person to
Speaker 1: person Uh message back, that's for sure, all right. So, Jeff,
Speaker 1: there's so much I want to ask you here, so
Speaker 1: much and maybe even trying to coax the player prop
Speaker 1: out of you or two. Uh, after all this is done,
Speaker 1: But first thing is, I'm just curious how does one
Speaker 1: get into being the fantasy guy? Like, how was it?
Speaker 1: What were you doing before this? And then how did
Speaker 1: you finagle your way into being expert in this subject?
Speaker 1: So I actually have a PhD in anthropology and so too.
Speaker 1: I've had two jobs in my lifetime that people have
Speaker 1: no idea what I do because fantasy certainly, Uh, that
Speaker 1: through a lot of people for a loop initially, but
Speaker 1: you know, it was back I received that in two
Speaker 1: thousand twelve, and uh, it was back at two thousand
Speaker 1: ten when I was really just looking for ways to procrastinate.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie. And uh, Unfortunately at the time
Speaker 1: it was right before you know, the the industry kind
Speaker 1: of grew and developed into what it is today. And
Speaker 1: I reached out to the right person at the right time.
Speaker 1: Happened to be Mike Clay who's now at ESPN, and um,
Speaker 1: you know, fortunately for me, Mike saw something and said, hey,
Speaker 1: you can write. I'm not gonna pay you, but you
Speaker 1: can write. Uh. So, um, you know, we started from
Speaker 1: there and honestly, nobody was paying attention and and and
Speaker 1: really for me, it wasn't about uh, you know, getting
Speaker 1: any accolades or anything. I just wanted to talk about
Speaker 1: football because I love this game, and fantasy has been
Speaker 1: an outlet for that. Gambling has been an outlet for
Speaker 1: that as well. And you know, over enough time, if
Speaker 1: you work hard at something, you can you can kind
Speaker 1: of get your way in there. So you know, timing,
Speaker 1: of course everything in life. Uh. And of course it
Speaker 1: was right before the big DFS boom that we saw
Speaker 1: in fourteen and fifteen. But yeah, that's that's the story.
Speaker 1: It's a weird story. It's not what I expected to
Speaker 1: do with myself. No. I love it though because some
Speaker 1: people are gonna be like, oh, it's the old cliche,
Speaker 1: it really is true, Like I mean, you you work
Speaker 1: for nothing. I mean so many of us have that
Speaker 1: similar story where I used to say, by my podcast,
Speaker 1: you're lucky. If I was wearing pants, right, I wasn't
Speaker 1: making any money doing the podcast, but you just you
Speaker 1: had a passion you went for it. Yeah, a little
Speaker 1: timing perhaps, but you know what's the saying. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: luck is where preparation meets opportunity and Mike Clay, who
Speaker 1: we've had on this show and on the podcast before.
Speaker 1: UH saw what he saw in you, and you have
Speaker 1: made the most of it. So let so let me
Speaker 1: ask you this. Jeff again, talking to Jeff Ratcliffe, who
Speaker 1: you can find on Twitter at Jeff Ratcliffe r A
Speaker 1: T C L I F E on Twitter, the director
Speaker 1: of Pro Football Focus Fantasy. UM, I'm curious when you're
Speaker 1: making your rankings, and we'll dive into some of these,
Speaker 1: but your top sixty rankings, which you're a proponent for
Speaker 1: everybody to make their own top sixty rankings, but you
Speaker 1: provide it will actually show it up on the screen.
Speaker 1: What Jeff has his top sixty? How much of this
Speaker 1: is based on your own proprietary stats, how much of
Speaker 1: this is Pro Football Focus stats per se? And then
Speaker 1: to what extent are you incorporating day to day NFL
Speaker 1: news into this? So I won't take like an obvious
Speaker 1: thing like an injury like Tyrek the other day, what
Speaker 1: was was reheeled off the practice squad and then he
Speaker 1: came back. I'm talking more like a Redskins Trent Williams
Speaker 1: thing as it applies to say, Darius, guys, are you
Speaker 1: watching that kind of thing very actively to monitor how
Speaker 1: you would put a guy like guys up and down
Speaker 1: the board. Yes, Now there's a lot of a lot
Speaker 1: of inputs in football. That's the that's the challenge. So
Speaker 1: you know, I am fortunate enough to have a lot
Speaker 1: of cool stats at my disposal from working for PFF.
Speaker 1: But you know, I have my own model that I
Speaker 1: used to to really establish a baseline. So I always
Speaker 1: say projections. A lot of people take projections at gospel,
Speaker 1: but really what they are is averages, right, so there
Speaker 1: are a good starting spot, they're really not the end
Speaker 1: point because they don't show you ceiling and floor, uh
Speaker 1: you know. Whereas with with like gambling, for example, I
Speaker 1: think it's great to use projections. Sometimes with fantasy it
Speaker 1: can be a little it can be a little uh off,
Speaker 1: you know, especially when you're looking at season long I
Speaker 1: much rather prefer weekly projections to season long projections because
Speaker 1: the season long don't show you the ups and downs
Speaker 1: throughout the course of the season. Like you get a
Speaker 1: guy like DeShawn Jackson who any week he could go
Speaker 1: for a buck fifty and two scores and he could
Speaker 1: also go for fifteen yards right for weeks on end, Yeah, yeah, exactly,
Speaker 1: and that doesn't show up in the season long projection,
Speaker 1: so I start there. But then there's there's an art
Speaker 1: to it. There's subjectivity to all of this, and and
Speaker 1: that the aspect of news is very important. You know,
Speaker 1: back in the day, used to work for Rhoto World,
Speaker 1: so I know what you know goes into creating the
Speaker 1: news feed at Rhoto World. And the biggest lesson I
Speaker 1: learned was to react and not overreact. You know, I've
Speaker 1: seen people already moving Ezekiel Elliott down the board. We're
Speaker 1: not at August six yet. You know, August six is
Speaker 1: a date. If he's not there, if he's hanging out
Speaker 1: in Mexico in August six, yes, now we need to react.
Speaker 1: But right now moving him down our board isn't really
Speaker 1: doing anything because I think it's just posturing. I think
Speaker 1: ultimately we do see him get paid. But then again,
Speaker 1: I didn't think Leviian Bell was gonna sit out the
Speaker 1: entire season last year. So we got to get to
Speaker 1: August six first. If Zeke is not in camp, then
Speaker 1: we adjust. So that's the sort of the the art
Speaker 1: to it, not overreacting to news. Pre August six, you've
Speaker 1: got Zeke is your number one player on your top
Speaker 1: six ranking, se Kwon, Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, no surprise
Speaker 1: to three four there um. But as far as you
Speaker 1: have your status or is it PF stats, like, what's
Speaker 1: what's in this mix? Well, it's it's a lot of
Speaker 1: stuff that I use from PFF. So over the years
Speaker 1: now I'm I'm this is my tenth NFL season with PFF.
Speaker 1: I've been able to kind of work through all the
Speaker 1: data and that was the beautiful thing. In the beginning.
Speaker 1: We have all these numbers and nobody knew what had
Speaker 1: to do with them. So, you know, when Mike Clay
Speaker 1: worked for us and I was working with him, we
Speaker 1: were tinkering with things and figuring out what what meant
Speaker 1: something and what was just you know, noise, and uh
Speaker 1: so I use a lot of that stuff. It's nothing,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm not compiling anything necessarily on my own,
Speaker 1: just from a time standpoint, but I do have a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of sheets that I can input data into
Speaker 1: and then start to make sense of it pretty quickly.
Speaker 1: People loving these rankings on the screen. I'm sure fantasy heads,
Speaker 1: all right. So there's a couple of Jeff Radcliffe tenants
Speaker 1: that I love to pass along as sort of fantasy
Speaker 1: one on one to people. Um, one of which is,
Speaker 1: let's start here. The difference between PPR and non PPR
Speaker 1: isn't often as significant as many make it out to be.
Speaker 1: We all have our friends, they're always the PPR. Is
Speaker 1: it not PPR and you're saying, you know, not the
Speaker 1: most important thing in the world, exactly exactly. I think
Speaker 1: sometimes we get bogged down by the microcosm and and
Speaker 1: the reality is we just want to make the best
Speaker 1: decisions possible. And you know, I get it, because hey,
Speaker 1: everybody's ramped up for fantasy, especially right now. If you're
Speaker 1: drafting like three weeks, you're thinking about that thing every day,
Speaker 1: and second is thinking about that thing. He's gonna get
Speaker 1: the paralysis by over analysis. And the reality is like
Speaker 1: a running back like James White, is he more valuable
Speaker 1: in PPR than he is in non PPR. Yes, but
Speaker 1: not as significantly as as a lot of people think.
Speaker 1: He was seventh in PPR last year he was eleventh
Speaker 1: and non PPR. So that's the difference of only a
Speaker 1: few spots. The thing about it is a back like
Speaker 1: James White, I don't think we should be looking at
Speaker 1: him as like, oh, well, we can't draft him in
Speaker 1: PPR or not or in non PPR. That is the
Speaker 1: thing we have to realize is his his fantasy production
Speaker 1: comes from catches. You know, he's not a high floor
Speaker 1: running back. He may have a high feeling on a
Speaker 1: weekly basis, but he also has a low floor given
Speaker 1: the volatility of touches. It's all about touches in fantasy football,
Speaker 1: and James White, you can't guarantee that he's going to
Speaker 1: go out and have like a seven, eight, nine catch
Speaker 1: game every week. It's just not gonna happen. So you know,
Speaker 1: it's it's a little bit of a bump your ride
Speaker 1: with those sorts of backs, and I tend to fade
Speaker 1: them even across the board, even if PPR. I tend
Speaker 1: to say, guys like that, Jeff, two of your big tenants,
Speaker 1: I think these are the macro ones draft for value,
Speaker 1: don't reach, don't overlook the importance of roster construction though
Speaker 1: as well early in your draft. So I put those
Speaker 1: two together. M my oldest friend in the world, My
Speaker 1: best friend in the world, Tommy back in d C.
Speaker 1: He's got the old Booby Prize he's got twelve in
Speaker 1: a twelve team Snake draft, So he's got twelve and thirteen.
Speaker 1: So what do you say to someone like him if
Speaker 1: a lot of the running backs are off the board
Speaker 1: and he's staring at say, I don't know, looking at
Speaker 1: your rankings. Let's say Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelsey, who
Speaker 1: many would say is head and shoulders above any other
Speaker 1: tight end in football, they're on the board. Do you
Speaker 1: say to someone like him, you know what, grab those
Speaker 1: two guys, Kelsey being the best tight end, Hill being
Speaker 1: the ultimate game changer in fantasy? Or are running backs?
Speaker 1: You know? And again you've got to watch what your
Speaker 1: opponents are doing. What would you tell someone who's got
Speaker 1: number twelve right now? In that case? Well, I think
Speaker 1: my number one objective here this season is to get
Speaker 1: one of the top ten running backs. I was saying
Speaker 1: top eleven, but Melvin Gordon situation bumps him out of there.
Speaker 1: Right now. It could change, we could go back to
Speaker 1: top eleven, but I want to get at least one
Speaker 1: of those guys, because I'm telling you, if you went
Speaker 1: Kelsey Hill, you feel really good. You you know, you
Speaker 1: put those stickers on the board, you get the ooze
Speaker 1: and odds you get the all man tight ends off
Speaker 1: the board already. But then in round three when it
Speaker 1: rolls back to you, and that's a long wait, who
Speaker 1: is on the board at running back? Now you're looking
Speaker 1: at probably like the twentieth running back on the board,
Speaker 1: And I don't feel that comfortable there because running back
Speaker 1: is gonna spin out really quickly. So in an optimal world,
Speaker 1: and I do not think at twelve that you're gonna
Speaker 1: have all of the top ten running backs taken already
Speaker 1: an ossible world, what I would do, It's very likely
Speaker 1: take one of those top ten, fade Kelsey and take
Speaker 1: Hill because you can get a good tight end. I'm
Speaker 1: drafting Jared Cook in the seventh round and twelve team
Speaker 1: leagues every draft I can this year, you can get
Speaker 1: a good tight end between rounds five and seven. You
Speaker 1: get Hunter Henry, get O J. Howard, you get Evan Ingram,
Speaker 1: you get Jared Cook, you can get Dance McDonald, you
Speaker 1: get Eric Ebron. And I like that roster construction a
Speaker 1: lot more having that top end running back than having Kelsey.
Speaker 1: So fade Kelsey in that case, fade Kelsey because there
Speaker 1: are so many tight ends available. You can get great
Speaker 1: value laid. Perhaps take hill and perhaps take a running back.
Speaker 1: That is probably very sound advice. And that is sort
Speaker 1: of the corollary to the whole quarterback thing. And I
Speaker 1: think this is like, this is a massive thing, right
Speaker 1: because people are so tempted by a Patrick Mahomes early, um,
Speaker 1: by a you know, I don't know, pick your quarterback
Speaker 1: by an Aaron Rodgers early, but quarterbacks, that's the key
Speaker 1: to all these drafts. In your opinion, just wait, just
Speaker 1: wait as long as you can. Absolutely, there is so
Speaker 1: much value nited in mock draft yesterday for CBS, and
Speaker 1: you're talking industry. People are gonna wait very long. But
Speaker 1: this got out of control. I had Russell Wilson in
Speaker 1: the twelfth round and Ben Rowl the Spurker in the
Speaker 1: thirteenth round. And I know people are kind of running
Speaker 1: away from Ben and because of no way B. But
Speaker 1: that's just crazy, doll. And it just shures you the
Speaker 1: depth of the position. I mean, Mahomes went relatively early,
Speaker 1: but you're talking you can get guys who are legit
Speaker 1: fantasy starters as the twentie quarterback off the board. Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins is going twenty. He had another four thousand yard
Speaker 1: season and its first third touchdown past season, you know
Speaker 1: of his career, and people are acting like, you know,
Speaker 1: he's the plague at this point. I love the value.
Speaker 1: You could just totally wait, and if you're in a
Speaker 1: ten team league, you could legitimately not draft a quarterback
Speaker 1: and still be fine. You could stream all season long
Speaker 1: and still be fine. If you're an eight team league,
Speaker 1: you don't have to drag quarterback. So it's just so
Speaker 1: much depth the position in this past happy NFL that
Speaker 1: we have right now just makes more sense to wait.
Speaker 1: So many great fantasy tenants that might be the greatest
Speaker 1: of them all. I got Jared Golf in the twelfth
Speaker 1: round last year, Jeff twelfth round. You know, so it's
Speaker 1: so true, Yeah, so true, beautiful number two quarterbacks through
Speaker 1: the first eleven weeks of the season. Yeah, and you know,
Speaker 1: and you haven't recommended. We just flashed on screen about
Speaker 1: ninth tenth round this year. Kind of thing for Jared
Speaker 1: goff Um. So many things to ask you about fantasy Um,
Speaker 1: I'll save them for another time. Will you hang out
Speaker 1: right here after the break, real quick segment. I want
Speaker 1: to ask you about a few NFL player props if
Speaker 1: you would, Jeff Sure, Jeff Radcliffe, Pro Football Focus coming
Speaker 1: back on a Numbers game at Visa. It's a Numbers
Speaker 1: Games live from the Tip of the Strip in Las Vegas.
Speaker 1: Gets your films Numbers even after the show is over
Speaker 1: by following the crew on Twitter at Beating the Book
Speaker 1: and at beast in Live this week, here's some of
Speaker 1: what you missed. We have to wait to the end
Speaker 1: of these fights to see these scorecards. Why please tell
Speaker 1: me why we don't get to see this after every round?
Speaker 1: I think about how how much better as betters first
Speaker 1: of all, as as people who wager on these, and
Speaker 1: as just viewers and fans of boxing, if we could
Speaker 1: see the scorecard after every single round, how much more
Speaker 1: fair all of this would seem, how much more exciting
Speaker 1: it would be because and the boxers would know. I
Speaker 1: heard somebody And when I said that on the air
Speaker 1: the other day, somebody on Twitter at Beating the Book said, well,
Speaker 1: they're worried that one of the boxers that if he's
Speaker 1: way up, he wouldn't have to go all out and fight.
Speaker 1: We'll go book. That's the case in every other sport.
Speaker 1: If a team's up seventeen points, they can alter their
Speaker 1: strategy accordingly, Why don't we have that for boxing? You're
Speaker 1: concerned about the cowboys here with guy. I want to
Speaker 1: get paid all I want to get paid. I want
Speaker 1: my money cash. Zeke wants it, but they have the
Speaker 1: fifth year option for him. They don't have a fifth
Speaker 1: year option of Deck because he was in the first round.
Speaker 1: So he's gonna have to get his money too. So
Speaker 1: what do you do? Kellen Moore calling the place about
Speaker 1: that first year off and coordinator will help from John
Speaker 1: Kitna apparently Lenahan was not well, like he's out the door.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of changes in the dells. Are
Speaker 1: you going to fall up your chair when they give Deck?
Speaker 1: How much every money they're gonna give him, because you
Speaker 1: know Paulie, it's gonna be pushing probably what thirty million
Speaker 1: dollars a year. I'll tell you I know this. His
Speaker 1: stats stink. When Zeke's not on the field, they're horrible.
Speaker 1: Talk about a running back that's worth a point or
Speaker 1: two to line. It's seek, it's night and day. His
Speaker 1: numbers was was Zeke on and off the field? It's crazy.
Speaker 1: So I know Jerry got him some new toys at
Speaker 1: least with the uh he lost Beasley, though he gets
Speaker 1: Witten back, and then they made the big trade last
Speaker 1: year to which I didn't like, but it worked out
Speaker 1: for the short term. We'll see Cooper does again this year.
Speaker 1: I will ask you this in a day and age
Speaker 1: where running backs are inevitably replaceable almost on every single team,
Speaker 1: and quarterbacks are supposed to be, you know, the crown
Speaker 1: jewel for every team, not this guy. If you could pay,
Speaker 1: if you could, if they could only pay one guy
Speaker 1: the money, Dad Prescott, Zeke, who do you give it to?
Speaker 1: I'd have to go Zeke, and on have to uh
Speaker 1: maybe sign like a case Cam or somebody like that.
Speaker 1: I'd go Zeke and I try to replace dat. I
Speaker 1: just can't WoT. You can't. You can't beat your chest
Speaker 1: and say how great ye are, but then you have
Speaker 1: horrific numbers when the guy's not on the field, and
Speaker 1: then when he was just spended, how bad it was.
Speaker 1: You can't do it. Now, back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with your host, Gil Alexander, broadcasting live from our VS
Speaker 1: IN studios in Las Vegas. We've got a few good
Speaker 1: minutes left here. With Jeff Ratcliffe from Pro Football Focus again,
Speaker 1: you can follow him on Twitter at Jeff Ratcliff. That's
Speaker 1: r A T C L I F F E. Just
Speaker 1: a couple other tenants of drafting at your fantasy drafts.
Speaker 1: Ceiling more important than floor. So, in other words, what
Speaker 1: was the comparison used, Jeff, between the two wideouts that
Speaker 1: you cited in your last article. Do you remember to
Speaker 1: give a good example of that? Oh, man, off the
Speaker 1: top of my head, I'm not really it was the
Speaker 1: Tyler Tyler Lockett versus somebody versus Larry Fitzgerald. That was it? There,
Speaker 1: you go, yeah, yeah, So it's Larry Fitzgerald is obviously
Speaker 1: one of those name brand guys, and we see this
Speaker 1: year in and year out. Everybody knows him. It's sort
Speaker 1: of comfortable, you like, you know he's older, but you
Speaker 1: still draft him anyway. But there's almost no ceiling with
Speaker 1: Larry Fitzgerald at this point. Hall of famer, you know,
Speaker 1: future Hall of famer, one of the best fantasy options
Speaker 1: all the time at the position. But Tyler Lockett has juice.
Speaker 1: You know, he has major upside. Now granted it's a
Speaker 1: run heavy offense, but he still scored ten touchdowns. I
Speaker 1: expect that that, you know, efficiency to regress this year
Speaker 1: because he took that on fifty seven catches. But you
Speaker 1: know he's got so much more upside, especially you know,
Speaker 1: figuring to be the number one target now with Doug
Speaker 1: Ball went out in the mix. So if you might
Speaker 1: have him ranked closely, well, the reality is you should
Speaker 1: lean towards a guy with the higher ceiling all right now,
Speaker 1: as you select players from the top sixty, don't worry
Speaker 1: about bye weeks or players on the same team, at
Speaker 1: least not that high in the draft. So again, great
Speaker 1: stuff from Jeff. Check out the articles Pro Football Focus, Um.
Speaker 1: Such great work and there's so many fantasy questions I
Speaker 1: could ask you, but our raining time here, let me
Speaker 1: just throw a player proper to it you or maybe
Speaker 1: you have one that you want to throw out. This
Speaker 1: is from DraftKings Jeff about Lamar Jackson specifically. I'm curious
Speaker 1: if you have any thoughts on this total rushing attempts
Speaker 1: on the regular season for Lamar Jackson of the Ravens.
Speaker 1: It set a one ninety and a half. The over
Speaker 1: is the dog at plus one ten, the under juiced
Speaker 1: as the favorite about minus one thirty four on that one.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts there? I mean, I can't see him getting
Speaker 1: close to that number. I know a lot of people
Speaker 1: are looking at at the over seventeen it was just
Speaker 1: over seventeen attempts per game for week eleven on. We're
Speaker 1: not gonna get close to that at all. And we
Speaker 1: actually currently haven't projected a hundred and sixty four rushing attempts,
Speaker 1: so that'd be a big time under. I just you know,
Speaker 1: the team wants if they want to make it through
Speaker 1: the season, uh, you know, with him under center, they
Speaker 1: can't be given him that sort of volume as a
Speaker 1: the runner. So I think that I would take the
Speaker 1: under on that one, and that that's what I'm comfortable on.
Speaker 1: Like with player props. And by the way, like if
Speaker 1: you're listening to this, you're a fantasy player, player props
Speaker 1: is the natural. Like for me, I always was a
Speaker 1: little intimidated by by going, you know, picking games against
Speaker 1: the spread or or money line or or over under.
Speaker 1: But player props, I mean, we're studying these players anyway,
Speaker 1: and I think it's one of the bigger advantages that
Speaker 1: you're gonna have over sports books. So I like, you know,
Speaker 1: when I'm not right on that line, when I'm you know,
Speaker 1: way under like this. I'm like with Lamar, I am gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, take that action real quick here, Jeff, And
Speaker 1: in our remaining few seconds, is there a player or
Speaker 1: a player that you think is overrated or underrated by
Speaker 1: the market, whether it's a quarterback, running back, or receiver
Speaker 1: yardage wise, you know, I haven't really seen much that
Speaker 1: would be too overrated. Uh, there are some that I
Speaker 1: think are a little underrated. I keep seeing Antonio Brown's
Speaker 1: yardage total just feels a little little under and I
Speaker 1: know people are are you know, downgrading him because Derek
Speaker 1: Carr from Ben Roethlisberger thing. But the reality is he's
Speaker 1: gonna see volume in that offense and a b could
Speaker 1: still go out and put up a fourteen hundred yards season.
Speaker 1: So I've seen that. I've seen that over unto around
Speaker 1: about twelve hundred yards for much of the off season. Yeah, twelve, yeah,
Speaker 1: twelve twenty five over at draft King, So big over
Speaker 1: for you on that, Jeff. We've gotta get you back
Speaker 1: because we're running out of time. But this is great
Speaker 1: stuff again at Jeff Radcliffe on Twitter. Jeff, good luck
Speaker 1: with all your drafts and uh, we'll be watching you
Speaker 1: at Pro Football Focus. My friend. Thank you appreciate it.
Speaker 1: Thanks Jeff Radcliffe debut performance here on a Numbers game
Speaker 1: and visit welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill
Speaker 1: Alexander and more about that golf we just before, we'll
Speaker 1: get the Todd Right here because you make a good
Speaker 1: point also, Jeff all fair, which is you might want
Speaker 1: to take a flyer one of the long shots. It
Speaker 1: should be pointing out that if it wasn't kept us specifically,
Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't go plus two hundred, right, But it's
Speaker 1: Kepka talking to Todd Right. By the way, the greatest
Speaker 1: radio host there ever was ladies and gentlemen. By my money,
Speaker 1: I will not be debated on this. Uh. Former host
Speaker 1: of the All Night with Todd Right showed ESPN Radio
Speaker 1: back in the day, and as I mentioned, the Todd
Speaker 1: Right Fantasy Football podcast and the Todd Right Toddcast. Uh
Speaker 1: these days, so um, Todd, before we get into specific
Speaker 1: fantasy football questions, you are a noted commissioner who runs
Speaker 1: his his leagues with an iron fist. I'm playing with that,
Speaker 1: but maybe maybe you do this of the extent you
Speaker 1: wanted to say something about those who are setting up leagues.
Speaker 1: You had something to say, Well, what I've been doing
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Football podcast since we came back for
Speaker 1: the season for the first time in four years. We
Speaker 1: took a little bit of a hiatus with a fantasy podcast,
Speaker 1: so I wasn't talking fantasy football from say February until June.
Speaker 1: Is set up your league's properally, and I've I've you've
Speaker 1: given me a forum deal to talk to a lot
Speaker 1: of fantasy the owners about this. I've even had some
Speaker 1: of your listeners say, hey, we want to adopt some
Speaker 1: of the things that you talk about, but we're having
Speaker 1: a tough time convincing our commissioner. So many commissioners are
Speaker 1: stuck in the past. They haven't evolved their leagues. And
Speaker 1: I get help now when I even see some other
Speaker 1: fantasy people writing columns on major website saying time to
Speaker 1: fix fantasy football now, they don't do enough. So just
Speaker 1: a few of the things I say. First of all,
Speaker 1: I say PPRS outdated. Now I'm not expecting everyone to
Speaker 1: drop PPR, but here is the simple argument. Running backs
Speaker 1: in the nineties, when you had Emmett Smith and Thurman
Speaker 1: Thomas and Barry Sanders and Chris Warren, and they dominated
Speaker 1: the game they touched the ball so much. Now you
Speaker 1: don't have. I mean, really, Ezekiel Elliott. And that's a
Speaker 1: whole other issue again. Right now I feel like I'm
Speaker 1: covering Hivin Smith again. Um, running backs don't dominate the
Speaker 1: game like they used to, so so they don't dominate
Speaker 1: fantasy football like they used to. If you use a
Speaker 1: yardage base league, and you use fractions where every game
Speaker 1: of yardage by every player ultimately produces points, I don't
Speaker 1: understand why, say, uh, anyone who catches a ball and
Speaker 1: doesn't gain yards should earn a point. The running back
Speaker 1: doesn't earn a point for handing him the ball. In
Speaker 1: most leagues, the quarterback doesn't earn anything for simply throwing
Speaker 1: the ball or having it caught. So I've never understood that.
Speaker 1: So again I'm losing this battle. But I think overturing
Speaker 1: people will see PPR is too much of a reward
Speaker 1: for just catching a ball and doing nothing with it.
Speaker 1: If the player does something with it in a yardage
Speaker 1: base league, you are rewarded with the yards. Just as
Speaker 1: the player helps his team game yardage, he helps your
Speaker 1: fantasy team. Why should any player receive a point for
Speaker 1: reception that gains no yards. And it's not just those
Speaker 1: zero yards, just in general the other things that I've
Speaker 1: talked to you about very quickly. There aren't enough tight
Speaker 1: ends to go around, and once the bye week start hitting,
Speaker 1: it's almost an every week thing. I got sick of
Speaker 1: answering all these well, I need a tight end this week. No,
Speaker 1: you don't change your lead. Make the tight end voluntary,
Speaker 1: it's not mandatory. You simply use a wide receiver slash
Speaker 1: tight end flex. You replace the tight end position with
Speaker 1: a wide receiver or a tight end. So if you
Speaker 1: do have, say Zach Ertz, or you have Travis Kelsey,
Speaker 1: you can play him, or you have or you're big
Speaker 1: on Evan Ingram, that's fine. But you could go the
Speaker 1: entire year not touch the tight end position and doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: You just play a third wide receiver in that spot.
Speaker 1: It impacts your league, not at all negatively, unless you're
Speaker 1: forcing tight ends down people's throats, which you shouldn't do
Speaker 1: because there aren't enough to go around. The Other thing
Speaker 1: that I really really wish more leagues would do is
Speaker 1: modify kicker scoring, because, let's say, in a standard scoring league,
Speaker 1: even with the yardage incentives. I've never understood why a
Speaker 1: fifty yard field goal should be worth five points and
Speaker 1: a forty nine yard touchdown isn't worth I'm sorry, a
Speaker 1: twenty four yard touchdown pass isn't worth five points. Uh
Speaker 1: So I eliminate any field goal being worth more than three.
Speaker 1: I don't think your kicker should be able to roll
Speaker 1: up twenty points in a week, so you make every
Speaker 1: field goal worth three. And for those who say, well, wait,
Speaker 1: you know that, what about the incentive for anything from
Speaker 1: outside of forty while you put in a penalty for
Speaker 1: anything inside of forty. So it's basically this simple. If
Speaker 1: your kicker makes any field goal, just like in an
Speaker 1: NFL game, it's worth three points. But if he misses
Speaker 1: anything from thirty nine and in, you lose one point,
Speaker 1: and the same on extra points. You get one if
Speaker 1: he makes it, minus one if he misses it. This
Speaker 1: curbs kicker scoring, and I think then falls more in
Speaker 1: line with the actual game itself. Those are my biggest ones.
Speaker 1: Another one I'm on is the dropping of dst Entirely.
Speaker 1: I've never played the I d P, but by dropping
Speaker 1: D S T Gill is just two random it is.
Speaker 1: It's just so random how the points are accumulated, and
Speaker 1: so many smart owners can just throw a dart each
Speaker 1: week and mix and match and look for matchups, And
Speaker 1: to me, that takes away from the value of building
Speaker 1: a season long team. So in my podcast league and
Speaker 1: in my personal league, I've eliminated defense special teams altogether.
Speaker 1: None of us stare up there who are fantasy football fans.
Speaker 1: You're not staring up there rooting for your defense, and
Speaker 1: if you are, to me, it's pretty pathetic. So I
Speaker 1: think you're eliminated as the most random element of fantasy football.
Speaker 1: You know. It's a great point about that. One Todd though,
Speaker 1: is there's always a guy in everybody's league who makes
Speaker 1: hay on the waiver wire defensive pickup based on the
Speaker 1: matchup every every week. And it occurs to me that
Speaker 1: it penalizes people who have lives, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: who aren't as sharp on the waiver while it's just
Speaker 1: there's that. And the last one about the PPR non
Speaker 1: PPR thing. Jeff Radcliffe from ProFootball Focus. I'm not sure
Speaker 1: if you're familiar with him. He was on the show
Speaker 1: last week talking about this. He said he's actually run
Speaker 1: the numbers on that stuff. He goes, even if you
Speaker 1: have that distinction, it ultimately doesn't really matter that much
Speaker 1: in the end. That's what his point was. So that
Speaker 1: would just sort of Butcher's your point from his perspective
Speaker 1: as well. Um, I have so many questions about individual
Speaker 1: players before we go to break though, let me just
Speaker 1: actually one generally. Let's let's talk about just mistakes. General
Speaker 1: mistakes that people make that you just want people to
Speaker 1: stop doing. Give me those. Well, well, first of all,
Speaker 1: is don't be a homer in your fantasy league. Generally,
Speaker 1: it's not gonna work. Now, there are examples where it can.
Speaker 1: I have a Philadelphia Eagle homer. I don't know Gil.
Speaker 1: I know, well, he's the assistant pro at a private club,
Speaker 1: so I let him in the league so I can
Speaker 1: play there. That's a cowboy fan talking to a red
Speaker 1: skin fair right there by the way right, and he's
Speaker 1: an Eagles fan. So two years ago he went all
Speaker 1: in on the Eagles. It actually were the only Eagles
Speaker 1: he didn't known were the two eye drafted arts and foals.
Speaker 1: But he had other ones and it did work out
Speaker 1: for him because they won the Super Bowl and they
Speaker 1: were good all year and he didn't lose Wentz until
Speaker 1: right about the time the fantasy playoffs began, but he
Speaker 1: got by because he had somebody named Homes on his
Speaker 1: bench that all said, don't be at Homer. I don't
Speaker 1: know about you, Gil, I mean, we've all been there,
Speaker 1: whether whether we're losing against the spread or we're losing
Speaker 1: our favorite team is losing. I like to separate. So
Speaker 1: I'm a Cowboys fan. If the Cowboys blank the bed
Speaker 1: one week, I want to bounce back with my fantasy team.
Speaker 1: I can't do that if I have a bunch of
Speaker 1: Cowboys on my fantasy team. So I think you split
Speaker 1: your loyalties and you limit yourself to one player, one
Speaker 1: player where you didn't overdraft for that player off your
Speaker 1: favorite team, and that's it. I also think you're a
Speaker 1: smarter football fan and you know more about the thirty
Speaker 1: two team NFL for gaming purposes, betting purposes, and overall knowledge.
Speaker 1: If you force yourself to combine a fantasy football team
Speaker 1: from around the league and not just your favorite team,
Speaker 1: I like it. That's your a number one. That's the
Speaker 1: that's the number one mistake to avoid. That's the biggest,
Speaker 1: the biggest one. Because everybody plays in a league where
Speaker 1: there's an obvious homer or two, and when they make
Speaker 1: a pick like that, they'll say homer. But what it
Speaker 1: does is you let those homers be homers because that
Speaker 1: elevates the value of the player they should have picked,
Speaker 1: and it keeps them in the draft pool for uh,
Speaker 1: fantasy owners who aren't homers and aren't filling their team
Speaker 1: with their their players on their favorite team. Makes sense
Speaker 1: to me, makes sense to me. And thank you for
Speaker 1: using the word blank as well, Todd. I appreciate that
Speaker 1: in that uh. Uh. So we'll come back hanging height
Speaker 1: because I want to ask you about specific things. One, uh,
Speaker 1: your take on drafting quarterbacks high that some people seem
Speaker 1: to want to do this year. Um, and specifically you
Speaker 1: mentioned Ezekiel Elli. We'll talk about him, Antonio Brown, Melvin
Speaker 1: Gordon uh and then the Travis Kelsey conundum A conundrum
Speaker 1: rather for those who are having tight ends rammed down
Speaker 1: their throats. As you say, Todd, I want to ask
Speaker 1: you all these questions. It's Fantasy Football with Todd Wright,
Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, host of the Todd Right Fantasy Football podcast.
Speaker 1: By the way, UH answers all your fantasy football questions
Speaker 1: at Todd Wright Fantasy Football at gmail dot com. Coming
Speaker 1: right back all those questions and more on a numbers
Speaker 1: game at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with
Speaker 1: Jill Alexander. Thank you. Ron flatter Ban is back on
Speaker 1: the Numbers Game, Gil Alexander, Jeff Parls is here and
Speaker 1: Todd Wright from the Todd Right Fantasy Football podcast, and
Speaker 1: Todd writes, toddcast kind enough to join us once again.
Speaker 1: All right, Todd, you're ready for some fantasy football speed
Speaker 1: round sir? Ready for that? Yes? And also at the end,
Speaker 1: asked me about the FedEx Cup Final again. I misunderstood
Speaker 1: your question about changes. I want to address that again
Speaker 1: at the end, I apologize I misunderstood the question. No problem,
Speaker 1: no problem, we would do that. Uh. Let's take someone
Speaker 1: you just mentioned from your beloved Dallas Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott.
Speaker 1: I am still of the mindset that he that they
Speaker 1: get this worked out. He's Zeke after all, and he's
Speaker 1: the engine for the Cowboys. But you know, people's fantasy
Speaker 1: drafts are starting to come now, Um, what do you do?
Speaker 1: We had this, you know on Draft Eve with Levian
Speaker 1: Bell last year. How how do you handle this with
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Elliott with the sort of the question mark that
Speaker 1: he is. The way I would handle it is here
Speaker 1: how I handled it two years ago, and also employing
Speaker 1: my Homer theory. When there was this thought he'd be
Speaker 1: suspended for the first six games, and when that was pending, UM,
Speaker 1: I went out in the first round. Uh, and I
Speaker 1: drafted then a solid RB one middle of the first round,
Speaker 1: and Shady McCoy, and then we wrapped around snake draft too,
Speaker 1: and ironically I took Melvin Gordon. By the time it
Speaker 1: got around to me in the third round, Elliott was
Speaker 1: still on the board because he had scared so many
Speaker 1: owners away. I took him then, um, because now he's
Speaker 1: a bonus to me. I already have my RB one
Speaker 1: and I have my RB two. So even if Elliott
Speaker 1: missed the first six games, if I've drafted properly at
Speaker 1: one and two, I didn't need him anyway because none
Speaker 1: of those by weeks came into play. Now. That ironically
Speaker 1: was a season also where I picked up Alvin Kamara
Speaker 1: on waivers. I think after week one it might have
Speaker 1: been weak two. So even when Elliott hit his six
Speaker 1: week suspension, I was prepared so I think you have
Speaker 1: to treat an Elliott, and you have to treat a
Speaker 1: Gordon that way if you're drafting before their holdouts ultimately end. Uh. Look,
Speaker 1: other owners are probably going to jump in front of you,
Speaker 1: but that's the way I would treat it is, don't
Speaker 1: treat them like a starter. But if they fall into
Speaker 1: their lap and you can put them on your bench,
Speaker 1: they have great value the minute this is all resolved.
Speaker 1: But otherwise, let somebody else draft him. In other words,
Speaker 1: if somebody wants to overdraft him by your standards there,
Speaker 1: let him, let him do it. So Melvin Gordon, who
Speaker 1: you brought up there, ironically you went with the last
Speaker 1: time this this uh happened in one of, if not
Speaker 1: the most ill conceived holdout in my opinion, of of
Speaker 1: all time. I guess you just completely ignore him for
Speaker 1: a while. Let someone else deal with that headache, because
Speaker 1: he's got backups in in in Los Angeles, Austin Ekeler
Speaker 1: being the biggest example of that. Melvin Gordon may never
Speaker 1: be the Melvin Gordon this year that last too long. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's not very pensible to me. I understand
Speaker 1: what he's personally trying to do. There is no trade
Speaker 1: market for him unless, say, within this week, in a
Speaker 1: non contact injury or a scrimmage or a week two
Speaker 1: exhibition game, some Super Bowl contenders running back goes down
Speaker 1: and they feel the need to make that deal. Ultimately,
Speaker 1: I think Gordon will be in for the Chargers. It
Speaker 1: does help Gordon's case that here we go again with
Speaker 1: Austin Ekeler, who had some nice touches on the opening
Speaker 1: drive of the exhibition game against the Cardinals, and then
Speaker 1: inside the five yard line the ball gets yanked out
Speaker 1: of his hands. That's why Eckler didn't get more touches
Speaker 1: last year, because he can't keep the football off the ground.
Speaker 1: So that helped Gordon a little bit. But yes, I
Speaker 1: would ultimately treat that the same way, although I think
Speaker 1: Gordon gets in before Elliott. Okay, what about Antonio Brown.
Speaker 1: This is a developing situation, Todd. Uh. First, it's the foot.
Speaker 1: Now it's listen. I'm not playing football, per Antonio Brown,
Speaker 1: he says, until I am allowed to use my old helmet,
Speaker 1: which the NFL has now banned. And so he didn't
Speaker 1: show up for the first preseason game, and we don't
Speaker 1: know really what the story is with him, given that
Speaker 1: the Raiders are the Raiders and that there is at
Speaker 1: least some question mark as do how well their offense
Speaker 1: will do? Do you also let somebody else in fantasy
Speaker 1: deal with that headache? Yeah? I do. Yeah. Where Antonio
Speaker 1: Brown for the last on three four years has been
Speaker 1: the first wide receiver on the board, and even last
Speaker 1: year I talked to you at this time about the
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown dilemma. How do you are you that owner
Speaker 1: in the first round that selects Antonio Brown but by
Speaker 1: the time it wraps around to you in the second round?
Speaker 1: Are there any RB one's left? Are you chasing RB
Speaker 1: one points the whole season because you took Antonio Brown
Speaker 1: where everybody else was taking RB one. Look, I try
Speaker 1: to stay away from rookies and I stay away from
Speaker 1: free agents because we we just there's the unknown. I
Speaker 1: to use a common term, I like to draft chalk
Speaker 1: in fantasy. I think later rounds or waivers are where
Speaker 1: you ultimately start taking some chances because there's less downside.
Speaker 1: I take the established the sample size and once played.
Speaker 1: Look Levy on bells in this category to me too,
Speaker 1: like I don't know where he's going to be on
Speaker 1: third down? Until I'll know maybe by week three, week four.
Speaker 1: Where when he was in Pittsburgh, we knew where he'd
Speaker 1: be on third down, he'd be split out as a
Speaker 1: wide receiver on third down. With the Jets, I don't
Speaker 1: know where he's going to be, So how does that
Speaker 1: impact his value? And with Antonio Brown, there are at
Speaker 1: least four, if not five, other wide receivers that right
Speaker 1: now look like they're worth more of a wide receiver
Speaker 1: one investment than Antonio Brown. Who correct me if I'm
Speaker 1: wrong you It seems like Antonio Brown is just making
Speaker 1: up any excuse he can to not play football anymore,
Speaker 1: totally totally for training camp at the very minimum, right,
Speaker 1: but I mean maybe maybe even more. Um, all right,
Speaker 1: we close out with two more broad ones here. If
Speaker 1: I have if if I'm gonna snake draft twelve thirteen
Speaker 1: is let's say I'm somewhere in that area. Let's say
Speaker 1: I've got twelve thirteen or I've got eleven fourteen, whatever
Speaker 1: it is in a twelve team league. Uh, and then
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey is available. I know that the tears of
Speaker 1: tight ends is probably there's probably Kelsey, two others and
Speaker 1: then everybody else. Um, are you a guy that believes
Speaker 1: because he's that. And again, I know your general philosophy
Speaker 1: on tight ends, but in leagues where tight ends are
Speaker 1: still happening, uh, do you grab Travis Kelsey or do
Speaker 1: you or do you just not care about Titan at
Speaker 1: that point? Just wait for the masses of them. I
Speaker 1: owned him last year and I loved him, and I
Speaker 1: was in a non mandatory tight end league and I
Speaker 1: love him. I mean, everything sort of fits here that
Speaker 1: he's on a big time offense without Drownk, he's a
Speaker 1: big time tight end um and you know it basically
Speaker 1: plays like he basically plays like a wide receiver. We've
Speaker 1: talked about that before in your show. Look, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: be drafting him in the second round, but I think
Speaker 1: some will overdraft him this year, probably more so him
Speaker 1: than Arts, because basically, as Gronk used to be overdrafted,
Speaker 1: Kelsey will now be overdrafted. And honestly, Gil Kelsey will
Speaker 1: probably give you more on the investment because Gronk didn't
Speaker 1: play sixteen games. He you know, was kind of a
Speaker 1: he played two and then miss one or play having
Speaker 1: one big game and one as game. With Kelsey, it's
Speaker 1: more consistent. Although I've talked to you about this too.
Speaker 1: You sort of analyze each Chief's game. Is it a
Speaker 1: big Kelsey game? Or is a big Tyree Kill game?
Speaker 1: If Hill had been suspended, then Kelsey's value probably is
Speaker 1: in the second round and up with some of those
Speaker 1: top five, top six wide receivers. Hill wasn't suspended, But yes, uh,
Speaker 1: Kelsey is likely worth the investment because he's attached to
Speaker 1: Mahomes and he stays healthier than gronked It Kelsey, Earth's
Speaker 1: Kittle probably the top three tight ends that I was
Speaker 1: referring to, probably probably, although Evan Angraham has a lot
Speaker 1: of value all of a sudden because the Giants lose
Speaker 1: a wide receiver every ten minutes. That's very, very true,
Speaker 1: every ten minutes, exactly on the clock. All right. Last thing,
Speaker 1: then quarterbacks. And I've talked about this with previous guests,
Speaker 1: um the very few that I have talking about fantasy football,
Speaker 1: But yours is an opinion that that I value perhaps
Speaker 1: more than anyone's quarterback. There's so many of them. I
Speaker 1: drafted Jared Golf in the twelfth round for God's sakes
Speaker 1: last year, Todd, But there's Patrick Mahomes. You let somebody
Speaker 1: else have him, and you just wait for quarterback. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you do, Um, if you're in a one quarterback league,
Speaker 1: and what I mean by that is you only start
Speaker 1: one quarterback. More and more leagues, even my personal league,
Speaker 1: use two quarterbacks or the super flex, which allows you
Speaker 1: to play a second quarterback or a running back, or
Speaker 1: a wide receiver or a tight end. That's why it's
Speaker 1: called super flex. You can play anything you want in
Speaker 1: that spot. In two quarterback leagues or leagues with a
Speaker 1: super flex, the value of the quarterbacks in the draft
Speaker 1: are elevated. You can get Patrick Mahomes going in the
Speaker 1: first round. You can get Aaron Rodgers going in the
Speaker 1: second round. You get Drew Brees going maybe third round.
Speaker 1: That's going to happen. But in single quarterback leagues, UM,
Speaker 1: And I recently did a television feature with a friend
Speaker 1: down here for a station that I'm on in the
Speaker 1: greater Tampa Bay area. He did a mock draft and
Speaker 1: I kept telling him wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait
Speaker 1: until all the other teams in the league picked a quarterback.
Speaker 1: You will still have value there. And then you take two.
Speaker 1: And he took back to back after everyone else had
Speaker 1: their quarterback. Big Ben and Philip Rivers. The downside is
Speaker 1: those guys give you no rushing yards or no rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 1: But we both know any week Roethlisberger and Rivers can
Speaker 1: put up four hundred yards, so the value is there.
Speaker 1: Later in the single Quarterback League Todd Right from the
Speaker 1: Top Right Fantasy Ball podcast. In the Tod Right podcast,
Speaker 1: m