1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:04,520 Speaker 1: Hello and welcome to the Betting pros PGA Podcast. I'm 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Pat Fitzmorris, joined as always by Bau mcbraer, my tag 3 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:12,240 Speaker 1: team partner. Next up on the PGA Tour schedule the CJ. 4 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: Copp Byron Nelson, which will be played at TPC Craig 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,279 Speaker 1: Ranch in McKinney, Texas, just north of Dallas. Boe and 6 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,600 Speaker 1: I are going to preview the Byron Nelson from Betting perspective. 7 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: We'll also do a very very quick recap of the 8 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The Betting pros PGA Podcast 9 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: is sponsored by Underdog Fantasy. Underdog is the place to 10 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,319 Speaker 1: go for best ball fantasy football contest, but you might 11 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:40,520 Speaker 1: not have known that Underdog has golf contest too. Sign 12 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:43,560 Speaker 1: up for Underdog if you haven't already with the promo 13 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:46,640 Speaker 1: code BP Golf to get your first deposit matched up 14 00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: to one hundred dollars plus there's a special pick available 15 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,319 Speaker 1: for you in the lobby. More on Underdog and its 16 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: golf contests a little later. The Zurich Classic of New 17 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 1: Orleans is in the books. This is the unusual two 18 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,319 Speaker 1: man event where two of the rounds are best ball. 19 00:01:02,400 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: Two of the rounds are alternate shot. It was an 20 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 1: Irish triumph at this year's Zurich Classic, with the team 21 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: Irishman there. That's right, Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowery beating 22 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: Chad Ramie and Martin Traynor the first hole of a 23 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: sudden death playoff to win the events. Rory and Lowry 24 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,520 Speaker 1: finished twenty five under par, and they were really the 25 00:01:21,560 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: only big name team to seriously contend. The runners up, 26 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:29,480 Speaker 1: Ramy and Trainer, not exactly household names, Ryan brem and 27 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: Mark Hubbard, were one shot back at minus twenty four, 28 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,800 Speaker 1: and there were four teams two shots back Garrick Higo 29 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: and Ryan Fox, Sam Stevens and Paul Barjean Zach Blair 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 1: and Patrick Fishburne and Nico Etchiavaria and Max Grazerman. I 31 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: will freely admit, though, that I did not watch a 32 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: minute of the Zeri Classic. 33 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 2: You missed out. 34 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: I was pretty preoccupied with the NFL draft and had 35 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: to do a lot of writing before, during, and after. Plus, 36 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,600 Speaker 1: the Zeri Classic is not exactly one of the four 37 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:01,080 Speaker 1: star events of the PGA two calendar. Do you have 38 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 1: any takeaways from the Zurich Classic or should we just 39 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:05,360 Speaker 1: move on to the Byron Nelsony. 40 00:02:05,480 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 2: Other than it was the exact crapshoot we expected it 41 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 2: to be. I mean, we got a little bit of 42 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 2: chock winning the thing, but other than a couple long 43 00:02:13,200 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 2: shot picks that cracked placement bets, for me, it was 44 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 2: just kind of a low risk type of Oh cool, 45 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 2: the PGA Tours having a thing this week. I was 46 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:25,679 Speaker 2: actually more locked into the corn Ferry Tour this last week. 47 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: So we're getting ready to call some bomb long shots 48 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 2: in the next few weeks. So stay tuned for all 49 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 2: of those. Because I've been scouting. 50 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,000 Speaker 1: A scouting mission. I like it in the spirit of 51 00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,919 Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. He's checking out the corn Ferry Tour, 52 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:43,359 Speaker 1: beating the bushes for not. 53 00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:47,040 Speaker 2: Just about football. We can always scout who's on the 54 00:02:47,120 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 2: horizon on the PGA Tour. Well. 55 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,120 Speaker 1: We will get to the Byron Nelson in just a moment, 56 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: but first, our friends at Underdog Fantasy are letting you 57 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:58,880 Speaker 1: make picks on your favorite golfers all season long. Just 58 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: pick higher or lower on selected stats for two to 59 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: five golfers and you can win up to twenty times 60 00:03:04,160 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: your money in a single day. You can also make 61 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: rivals picks choosing, for instance, which are two golfers will 62 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,440 Speaker 1: shoot a better score in a round. Golf picks can 63 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: be combined with player stats from other sports too. Go 64 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:18,639 Speaker 1: sign up at Underdog Fantasy with the promo code BP 65 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,400 Speaker 1: Golf to get your first deposit match up two one 66 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: hundred dollars plus there's a special pick available for you 67 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: in the lobby. The host course for the Byron Nelson 68 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: is TPC Craig Ranch. It is a par four measuring 69 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:34,480 Speaker 1: seventy four hundred and fourteen yards. The course is a 70 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 1: little on the longer side, but the fairways are wide. 71 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,120 Speaker 1: The rough is forgiving, so players can hit driver pretty 72 00:03:41,160 --> 00:03:43,840 Speaker 1: much with impunity here on most of the par fours 73 00:03:43,880 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: and par fives. The three par fives i'll measure less 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,840 Speaker 1: than five hundred and seventy yards, so all very reachable. 75 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 1: This is a good course for the bombers. The greens 76 00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 1: at TPC Craig Ranch are bent grass and they are big. 77 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,920 Speaker 1: The metrics suggests that these greens are slightly easier than 78 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 1: average to put on, and recent winners had good weeks 79 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: with the flat sticks. Jason Day is the defending champ. 80 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 1: He was minus twenty three last year. One stroke better 81 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 1: than Sewu Kim and Austin Ekrotz. It was an emotional 82 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:15,760 Speaker 1: win forer day. It was his first win since the 83 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: passing of his mom. Kh Lee got back to back 84 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:23,359 Speaker 1: wins at the Byron Nelson in twenty one twenty twenty 85 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: two with scores of minus twenty five and minus twenty six. 86 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: Do you notice a theme with these winning scores? Bow 87 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:35,719 Speaker 1: really low? This is a birdie fest and those two wins, 88 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,960 Speaker 1: by the way, the only tour wins for kh Lee, 89 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 1: so obviously this course suits his eye. The forecast says 90 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,159 Speaker 1: there's thunderstorm chances all four days of the tournament, so 91 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:52,200 Speaker 1: possible this could wind up being a rain shortened affair, 92 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: and which means the course could play a little longer 93 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:57,479 Speaker 1: than usual and the greens could be even more receptive 94 00:04:57,520 --> 00:05:00,960 Speaker 1: than usual. Nothing real noteworthy as far wind, even though 95 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: it is a Texas course. Ooh, any thoughts on TPC 96 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 1: Craig Ranch and what kind of players might have an 97 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:07,560 Speaker 1: edge here. 98 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:10,799 Speaker 2: It's among the three easiest courses on the entire PGA 99 00:05:10,920 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 2: to our rotation, So get ready for lots and lots 100 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: of birdies. And that's what I'm looking for when I'm 101 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 2: modeling I'm I'm mainly looking at scoring opportunities gained and 102 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:25,520 Speaker 2: then how well they convert those opportunities. So if you're 103 00:05:25,600 --> 00:05:28,239 Speaker 2: if you're just looking for it's a glorified putting contest. 104 00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,039 Speaker 2: We get a couple of these every year where it's 105 00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: the off the tee. There's no penalties for being wayward 106 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 2: off the tee. So your bombers that are come out 107 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 2: of the woodworks that just yanked down their three hundred 108 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 2: and fifty yards, they're going to have shorter approach distances. Hopefully 109 00:05:43,279 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 2: that means they're closer on approach, But mainly whoever makes 110 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 2: the most birdie putts is going to win this saying 111 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:51,040 Speaker 2: Jason Day was fortunate last year, and then kh Lee 112 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 2: the Panda with his wins in twenty one and twenty two. 113 00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 2: He's a bomber, he's he's just poking it out there, 114 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 2: put the put the ball on the green somewhere and 115 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 2: and hopefully the ball goes in, because if the ball 116 00:06:02,160 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 2: doesn't go in, you have no chance. Here. The twenty 117 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: five to twenty six hundred par is pretty regular here, 118 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 2: and I think this year if we see softer conditions 119 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:14,279 Speaker 2: from passing thunderstorms, which I think is more of the case. 120 00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:17,920 Speaker 2: Being Texas late spring, you're gonna get some passing thunderstorms 121 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 2: in the late afternoon, so maybe if it's a little softer, 122 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,680 Speaker 2: we could see closer to thirty underpar. That's how easy 123 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:27,840 Speaker 2: this golf course is by tour standards. So yeah, we're 124 00:06:27,839 --> 00:06:29,600 Speaker 2: gonna have some favorites that we want to line up, 125 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 2: but we're also gonna have plenty of long shots because 126 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: this type of tournament really brings out the darker dusty 127 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 2: cobwebs of the PGA Tour, because some of these guys 128 00:06:40,200 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 2: are seeing this has a real opportunity to enhance their 129 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 2: status for the next coming seasons, keeping their card. All 130 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 2: of that is at play here, so buckle up. 131 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,719 Speaker 1: Yeah, let's get to those odds in just a minute. 132 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: But first, if you want a chance to win a 133 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:58,800 Speaker 1: free one year premium Betting Pro subscription, you need to 134 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting pros you Tube channel right now, 135 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 1: comment below on this video and that's it. We'll be 136 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 1: announcing a winner right here on the channel, so make 137 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:08,920 Speaker 1: sure to turn on those notifications so you can be 138 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. 139 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: Let's get to the odds. They are all courtesy of 140 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: Draft Kings as of Monday afternoon. No Scottie Scheffler this week, 141 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:23,119 Speaker 1: so Jordan Speith is the favorite at minus fourteen hundred. 142 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: He's a Dallas native, Speith is so this tournament is 143 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: always sort of a homecoming weekend for him. Jason Day 144 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: and Seawoo Kim or minus eighteen hundred, Will Zalatorus minus 145 00:07:33,080 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: twenty two hundred, Sung jm Alex Norrin and Adam Scott 146 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: minus twenty five hundred, Min Wu Lee minus twenty eight hundred, 147 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: Tom Kim, Tom Hogy and Steven Jaeger and Ben On 148 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 1: are all plus three thousand, Keith Mitchell plus thirty five 149 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: hundred and Thomas Dtree plus four thousand. How do you 150 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:52,679 Speaker 1: feel about the favorites? 151 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 2: Bo pretty strongly. There are all guys that have shown 152 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 2: up here before. Jordan Speith, of course, is a native 153 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 2: to the area. He's no stranger to places that don't 154 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: penalize wayward t shots. It seems like if Jordan Speeth 155 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:11,360 Speaker 2: doesn't have any consequences to spraying drivers all over the course, 156 00:08:11,400 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 2: then he can really win here. Sixteen to one for 157 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 2: a favorite's the best we've seen all season. That's gonna 158 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 2: be excellent odds for him. Seewoo Kim always shows up here. 159 00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:24,960 Speaker 2: He's a birdie making machine. Another one that I'm interested in, 160 00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 2: but may maybe more appropriate at sixteen to one than speed. 161 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,040 Speaker 2: I think Speth could be shorter, probably will be shorter 162 00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,719 Speaker 2: as we get closer to Locke. So Jordan Speith right 163 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 2: now at sixteen to one is the preferred pick. And 164 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 2: then I'm going down just a little ways to let's see, 165 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 2: I got Steven Jaeger. Jaeger bombs at thirty to one. 166 00:08:44,160 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 2: That guy is the perfect fit for this golf course. 167 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 2: He hits the ball a mile off the tee. He's 168 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: a birdie machine. He's a par five assassin. Steven Yeger 169 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,199 Speaker 2: is playing great golf this year, and thirty to one 170 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 2: is an insult to what he's put together the season 171 00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 2: so far. 172 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:02,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, Jaeger finished eleventh in this tournament last year. And oh, 173 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: by the way, he's already won in Texas this year. 174 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,559 Speaker 1: He won the Houston Open. The only thing I'm a 175 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: little worried about about Speeth and his recent form. He yeah, 176 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: he's played well here. He was second in twenty twenty two, 177 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,679 Speaker 1: ninth and twenty twenty three. This course does suit him 178 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: for sure, But in his last seven starts, one top ten, 179 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 1: three missed cuts and a DQ. 180 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 2: That's why the odds are so soft for us. 181 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,240 Speaker 1: That is true. They are softer than you would think 182 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: considering we have no Scheffler, no Shaffley, no can't lay. 183 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, the way I'm waiting my metrics, he's third in 184 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: this field and birdies are better gained and second in 185 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 2: stokes gain on part fives. As far as what I'm 186 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: measuring that, he's checking all the boxes for me. Maybe 187 00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 2: other than being just kind of middle of the pack 188 00:09:46,960 --> 00:09:49,960 Speaker 2: and driving distance and middle of the pack putting, he's 189 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 2: got everything else down top five in this field. 190 00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: No, bo, you said you were scouting the corn Ferry Tour. 191 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:59,240 Speaker 1: Were you scouting the Korean Tour this past week? Because 192 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:02,319 Speaker 1: Sung JM is coming in hot, having won the Worry 193 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: Financial Group Championship in Korea and that came right after 194 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 1: his twelfth place finish at the RBC Heritage. Yeah, so 195 00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: Jay's on kind of a heater right now. 196 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 2: He is, and I just worry about his approach. His 197 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,440 Speaker 2: approach game has been really off this year. That's the 198 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:21,080 Speaker 2: reason why he's not quite scoring as well as we've 199 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 2: seen him. If he can pull it together and get 200 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 2: closer to the pin here, he can make some noise. 201 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 2: He's still top ten in my model, so nothing to 202 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: shake stick at. He's actually a very short hitter by 203 00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 2: tour standards, but he's so accurate, so if his approach 204 00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 2: game is on point, we could definitely see Sung jam. 205 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 2: He's extremely talented. 206 00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 1: Can I talk you into minwou Lee? I mean, it's 207 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: kind of a bomber's paradise, and it seems like Minwu's 208 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:47,760 Speaker 1: the kind of guy who's going to play well on 209 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: this sort of a setup. 210 00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 2: I thought he would read out better than he did. 211 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,040 Speaker 2: I think what we're running into is it's not just 212 00:10:54,120 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 2: a bomb and gouge course. It's very much a second 213 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:00,160 Speaker 2: shot course. And or he has struggled the most is 214 00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 2: on approach. His approach game is abysmal this year, and 215 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 2: that's going to be very important. So unless he unless 216 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 2: he finds something as to get closer to the pen 217 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 2: and give himself more birdy opportunities, I just don't see it. 218 00:11:13,880 --> 00:11:16,360 Speaker 2: His odds this week obviously is a big name. He 219 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:18,160 Speaker 2: hits the hell out of the ball at twenty eight 220 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:21,280 Speaker 2: to one. I guess it's appropriate, but he's just not 221 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:22,120 Speaker 2: on my radar. 222 00:11:23,040 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: That's fair. I mean, I know a higher percentage of 223 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,520 Speaker 1: approach shots on this course are from one hundred and 224 00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,719 Speaker 1: fifty yards or further out, or you. 225 00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:30,839 Speaker 3: Know, he's. 226 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:34,720 Speaker 2: Forty ninth in this field and strokes again out approach 227 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 2: and one hundred and fifteenth and birdy are better gained, 228 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 2: not great. So number six in driving distance doesn't really 229 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 2: doesn't really help out when everything else is above or 230 00:11:44,679 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: outside of the top sixty. 231 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 1: What about ben On? You finished fourteenth here last year 232 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 1: and maybe it won't I don't know. You look at 233 00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: some of the guys who won here, they had good 234 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,439 Speaker 1: putting weeks, but they weren't necessarily guys known as as 235 00:11:58,559 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: lights out potters. 236 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:02,560 Speaker 2: And he's definitely not a lights hop putter. He's a 237 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 2: dreadful putter. He's also been kind of lackluster on approach 238 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,440 Speaker 2: this season, but he seems to make up for it. 239 00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:12,040 Speaker 2: He's another bomber third in this field and driving distance. 240 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 2: He's great on longer approach shots. It just hasn't been 241 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 2: there on that second shot. So yeah, he's in the 242 00:12:20,120 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 2: pool for sure. I just don't know if I want 243 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 2: to bet him, especially when he's getting premium odds here 244 00:12:24,640 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 2: at twenty eight to one. I think I'd rather see 245 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 2: him around thirty five to forty. If he slips there, 246 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,160 Speaker 2: then sure fair. 247 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:33,679 Speaker 1: All right, let's look at some of the mid range options. 248 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:37,079 Speaker 1: We've got Mackenzie Hughes and Adam Shank at plus forty 249 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: five hundred, Patrick Rogers, Maverick McNeely and k h Lee 250 00:12:40,920 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: at plus five thousand, Seamus Power, Bow Hostler and Aaron 251 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: Raye at plus fifty five hundred, Mark Hubbard and Davis 252 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:52,040 Speaker 1: Thompson at plus six thousand, Luke Liszt and Doug gimm 253 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:54,800 Speaker 1: at plus seven thousand, and Ryan Fox, Kevin Hugh and 254 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: Ben Griffin at plus seventy five hundred. To any of 255 00:12:58,200 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: the mid range guys appeal. 256 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:02,040 Speaker 2: To you, This is the range where I'm having to 257 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,880 Speaker 2: restrain myself because there's so many guys I really like. 258 00:13:05,600 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 2: I think I narrowed it down to two guys that 259 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,920 Speaker 2: I really want to bet on this week. Adam Shank 260 00:13:09,960 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 2: at forty to one, number one, very very top of 261 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 2: my model, So that got my attention when I kept 262 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 2: rearranging it for different numbers of rounds going back farther, 263 00:13:20,160 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 2: going back shorter, changing the weights on the stats that 264 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 2: I'm looking at, He's still number one no matter how 265 00:13:25,760 --> 00:13:28,320 Speaker 2: I shake it. I couldn't shake Adam Shank from the 266 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 2: top of my rankings. So he's getting a bed at 267 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:34,600 Speaker 2: forty to one. Let's go Adam Shank. I'm really hoping 268 00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 2: that you're not just a stat darling like some of 269 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 2: the other guys in this field. But and then the 270 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,720 Speaker 2: other one is Doug Gim. Doug Gim is a scoring machine. 271 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:45,120 Speaker 2: He looked great last week and in the team event. 272 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 2: This guy can make birdies and bunches, and this course 273 00:13:48,920 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: demands it. This course demands converting on birdie opportunities and 274 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 2: playing aggressively. Doug Gim is aggressive to a fault. He's 275 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,720 Speaker 2: the most volatile player we have on the PGA Tour, 276 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 2: and I think that there's not as much penalty for 277 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 2: how aggressive he plays. This guy goes after every pin 278 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: every time, no matter what, and sometimes it blows up 279 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 2: in his face. There's just not a lot of blow 280 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,480 Speaker 2: up places on this golf course. So I think Doug 281 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 2: Gimm has the firepower a seventy to one. I've done 282 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 2: dumber things with ten bucks. 283 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,440 Speaker 1: No interest in two times by Ray Nelson Champ kh 284 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:23,680 Speaker 1: Lee at fifty to one. I mean he has not 285 00:14:23,760 --> 00:14:26,200 Speaker 1: been in bad form since the start of March. He's 286 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: at a fourth place finish at the Cognazan Classic, a 287 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: ninth at the Valspar Championship, and eleventh two weeks ago 288 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 1: at RBC Heritage. 289 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 2: I like kh Lee, I just don't love him. I 290 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 2: don't love the way he showed up last year and 291 00:14:39,880 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 2: got eleventh. I think, so he's not in the same 292 00:14:44,080 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 2: player he was three years ago or two years ago. 293 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna skip him at fifty to one, just 294 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 2: not because I don't like him, but because there's other 295 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,640 Speaker 2: options in that same range I'd rather go for. Yeah. 296 00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 2: I'm always a big, big fan of kh Lee. The 297 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:58,400 Speaker 2: Panda is live. 298 00:14:59,560 --> 00:15:02,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, other guys who come in with some momentum. Mackenzie 299 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 1: Hughes has a third place finish in a fourteenth place 300 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: finish over his last three events. Also finished fourteenth here 301 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: a year ago. Davis Thompson has three top twenty fives 302 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 1: in his last four events. Any long shots you want 303 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 1: to recommend bo, I mean we were talking about this 304 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: off stage. We've got we've got some of our old buddies. 305 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:21,120 Speaker 3: Here. 306 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: We've got Jake Napp, We've got Alejandro Toasty, We've got 307 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: real He'satsuni. Let's see Nap is ninety to one, an 308 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,160 Speaker 1: absolute bomber one on a bomber's course. Earlier in the 309 00:15:33,200 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: year at the Mexico. 310 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 2: It's of course too. Mexico is a compcourse for here 311 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 2: is it. 312 00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: Let me throw Maddy Schmid at one hundred to one, 313 00:15:41,400 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 1: big hitter and after opening the season with six straight cuts, 314 00:15:45,520 --> 00:15:47,640 Speaker 1: he's finished twenty six. They're better in five of his 315 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:48,360 Speaker 1: last seven. 316 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll see your I'll see your Maddy Schmidt, and 317 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 2: I'll raise you. A guy who's blazing hot putting right now, 318 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,240 Speaker 2: along with being the longest hitter in this field period, 319 00:15:58,320 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 2: Peter Quest, both he and Jake Napper at ninety to one. 320 00:16:02,480 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: I think I'll double up on a half unit bed 321 00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 2: on both Jake Nap and Peter Quest because they have 322 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,080 Speaker 2: the distance, but they're also strong in other areas. I 323 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 2: think Maddy Schmidt gets a lot of credit because he's 324 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,640 Speaker 2: a long hitter, but the rest of his game still 325 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,320 Speaker 2: isn't quite there yet. We've seen other things work for 326 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 2: Quest and Nap in this season. More recently with Quest 327 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 2: just being on fire with the putter Monday qualifying and 328 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,960 Speaker 2: then turning it into a top five finish a couple 329 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 2: of weeks ago, and then my deep deep shot two 330 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 2: hundred to one Dylan wu Is. We haven't seen Dylan 331 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,000 Speaker 2: Wu's best form this season, but this is the kind 332 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 2: of place where he shows up where he's the middle 333 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 2: of the pack in driving distance. But this guy puts 334 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 2: the lights out. This guy is great on approach, this 335 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 2: guy's great at converting birdie opportunities. Dylan wu is mispriced 336 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:52,080 Speaker 2: at two hundred to one. 337 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, you've been sort of adamant about him, and so 338 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:58,040 Speaker 1: I am kind of expecting a breakthrough since you've been 339 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: pretty key on these long shot this year. Bow any interesting. 340 00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: He's Satsuni. I mean, we've talked about him being maybe 341 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: a star in the making. Hits it a long long way. 342 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,199 Speaker 2: I really am a big fan of him, and and 343 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:13,119 Speaker 2: he's kind of like Kevin You for me, where his 344 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 2: ball striking so good that you can't ignore it. But 345 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 2: what we haven't seen he sat Sunni or you is 346 00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 2: is the short game to back it up where you 347 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:25,000 Speaker 2: actually score even though these guys are hitting it a 348 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:28,000 Speaker 2: mile they're hitting it close and then they just don't convert. 349 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 2: I want to see that from those guys. It's it's 350 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: very possible. I would I wouldn't fault anybody for playing 351 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: Rio this week because he's got so much talent and 352 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 2: he's fun to watch. If you, if you, if you 353 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:44,600 Speaker 2: were wanting to key in on a couple relatively unknown players, Rio, Heit, 354 00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 2: Satsuni and h and Kevin You. Kevin You is the 355 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 2: most fun shot tracer guy you're ever going to see. 356 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:55,080 Speaker 2: This dude absolutely pulverizes the ball, especially on approach. That's 357 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 2: where he popped up for me. He just can't put 358 00:17:57,760 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 2: and that's he's Satsuni. Kind of a week week short 359 00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 2: game so far, but he gets hot. When it really 360 00:18:04,720 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 2: gets hot, he makes a ton of birdies. Kevin You 361 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 2: just needs to hit the ball super duper close because 362 00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,639 Speaker 2: the dude's putting is so abysmal. 363 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, So what does your betting card look like as 364 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 1: a now bow? 365 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,160 Speaker 2: So so far, I have Jordan Spieth at sixteen to one, 366 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 2: Steven Yaeger thirty to one, Adam Shank forty to one, 367 00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 2: Doug Gimms seventy. I have both Jake Knapp and Peter 368 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 2: Quest at ninety and Dylan Woo at two hundred. 369 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,080 Speaker 1: I have Min Wu Lee at plus twenty eight hundred. 370 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: I know you make a really good point about the 371 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: approach game, but I'm just having a feeling about Min 372 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: Wou this week Yaeger at plus three thousand kh Lee. 373 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,199 Speaker 1: I got to go back to him at fifty to 374 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 1: one to win. And then I'm also throwing down on 375 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,159 Speaker 1: Jake Nap at ninety to one, Maddy Schmidt at one 376 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:58,360 Speaker 1: hundred to one, and Rio Hi Satsuni at uh one 377 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 1: and ten to one. So and I'm gonna have to 378 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna have to throw a buck or 379 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:06,920 Speaker 1: two down on Peter Quest too. Go maybe and maybe 380 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: Dylan Woo. You're talking me into him? Into him? 381 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 2: Yeah, I met Peter Quest. He's an outstanding human. I 382 00:19:14,160 --> 00:19:16,439 Speaker 2: would always advocate for betting on him, even if a 383 00:19:16,480 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 2: little If it's a little bit. 384 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 1: Now before we get to our one and done picks, 385 00:19:20,760 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: if you are playing in a one and done golf pool, 386 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 1: or if you're playing in any sort of tears based 387 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,399 Speaker 1: majors pool. 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For ten percent off on the Majors 397 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,600 Speaker 1: and Masters Majors tool, and for up to fifty five 398 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: percent off on yearly packages that include all golf, football 399 00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 1: and March Madness tools, visit poolgenius dot com slash Fantasy 400 00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 1: Pros again. That's poolgenius dot com slash Fantasy Pros now 401 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,720 Speaker 1: for the one and done picks. Last week of Dessert 402 00:20:17,760 --> 00:20:19,600 Speaker 1: Classic Bow, you told me you wanted to go with 403 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,480 Speaker 1: Rory McElroy and Shane Lowry, but you had already burned Lowry, 404 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 1: so you went with Saheith Degala and will Zalatorus instead. 405 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:32,000 Speaker 1: They missed the cut. No soup for you, I Adam 406 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: hadwinning Davis Riley. They finished in tenth place, good for 407 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two thousand, three hundred and seventy 408 00:20:38,040 --> 00:20:40,840 Speaker 1: five dollars. I continue to claw my way back, but 409 00:20:40,880 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: I'm still about one point nine million dollars behind you. 410 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:44,399 Speaker 3: Bo. 411 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: I'm up first this week. I'm all in on min 412 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: Wu all right, Bo against against my better judgment. I 413 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: just feel like the bombs away motif is going to 414 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: work to his advantage. We're got the talent. 415 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,320 Speaker 2: We just need to see it come all the way together. 416 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,240 Speaker 2: And I will mention it since I think it's pretty remarkable. 417 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,359 Speaker 2: But I started the season with sixteen straight one and 418 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,560 Speaker 2: done picks making the cut until last week. Of course, 419 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:14,960 Speaker 2: it's the team event. With the two guys, I really 420 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:18,720 Speaker 2: didn't have a choice but to take with their firepower there, 421 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 2: and of course they didn't make any birdies on the 422 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 2: second day an alternate shot, So yeah, I'll take my 423 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 2: l there in the zero for the first time this 424 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 2: season out of seventeen weeks. One miscut. It didn't burn 425 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 2: me too bad. I'm glad you didn't have Rory and 426 00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:36,879 Speaker 2: Lowry because that would have been a quick catch up. 427 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,240 Speaker 2: Let me, I'm gonna go with Jaeger bombs Steven Yeger. 428 00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 2: I just think he's a great Texas players. He's from Germany, 429 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 2: but he grew up in Texas. So I think that 430 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,119 Speaker 2: having Steven Yeger here is going to be it's going 431 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 2: to be a good one because he does all the 432 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,960 Speaker 2: things that Minwu Lee does, except he's more well rounded 433 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 2: and of course has more experience. So I think that 434 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,919 Speaker 2: I think go with Dieger here is a really solid 435 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 2: pick where I don't think even if Minwu does well, 436 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna you're not going to gain 437 00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:07,840 Speaker 2: any ground on me this week. 438 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,359 Speaker 1: What a coup that would be for you, Bo if 439 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:14,080 Speaker 1: Steven Dieger did the Texas two Step and won the 440 00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: Houston Open and the Byron Nelson and that's going to 441 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: do it for this week's show. I'm going to thank 442 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,119 Speaker 1: our sponsor, Underdog Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog with the 443 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,480 Speaker 1: promo code BP Golf to get your first deposit match 444 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: up two hundred dollars plus a special pick available for 445 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: you in the lobby, and please come join Bo and 446 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,000 Speaker 1: I again next week when we'll be previewing the Wells 447 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:38,360 Speaker 1: Fargo Championship, the last tournament before the PGA Championship. Until then, 448 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: so long everyone. 449 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the betting Pros podcast. 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