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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action also.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go from growing aspect. We're saying

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Speaker 2: it's a cash touchdown that fall.

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Speaker 3: We see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win. That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combition if you want

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Speaker 3: to pull, and we are underway. Welcome into the Action

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Speaker 3: Network Podcast presented by bet MGM. I'm your host today,

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Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen. Today's episode NFL Week two best Vets joining

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Speaker 3: us each week through with us last week. Thank you.

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Speaker 3: If you are new to us, welcome Brandon Anderson, Luke

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Speaker 3: Swain aka Vegas Refund. They will be with us throughout

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Speaker 3: the course of the season. A rotating third expert and

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Speaker 3: today we've got grant Me from Scores and Odds scoresanodds

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Speaker 3: dot Com. He will join us for our week two

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Speaker 3: episode the show five and four. After Week one, shout

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Speaker 3: out to our rotating analyst Anthony Dbundo, who went three

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Speaker 3: to Ohero Dallas delivered on Sunday Night Football to put

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Speaker 3: us over five hundred. As a reminder, you can follow

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Speaker 3: each of these guys individually in the free award winning

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Speaker 3: Action Network app for their best bets that they give

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Speaker 3: out today and anything else that we do give out.

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Speaker 3: So be sure to have a look at not just

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Speaker 3: the bets they give out on this show, but anything

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Speaker 3: else they might add for the rest of the week. Brandon,

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Speaker 3: let's get started. Best bet number one for week two.

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Speaker 4: All right, Well, you guys know I'm usually a sides guy,

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Speaker 4: but today I'm doing three totals, three unders in fact,

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Speaker 4: so let me start with Cowboys Jets under thirty eight

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Speaker 4: and a half. Week one was about unders twelve and

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Speaker 4: four to the under. In Week one, we saw a

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Speaker 4: lot of defense, and I think that's starting to be

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Speaker 4: a theme. We get some kind of ugly football in September. Really,

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Speaker 4: we're starting to see preseason five ball still a little

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Speaker 4: bit right. We didn't really play a lot of these

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks and offenses, and we're still catching up the defenses already.

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Speaker 4: And honestly, after we got that huge offensive explosion, we're

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Speaker 4: seeing the touchdown rates drop. We're seeing the defenses catch

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Speaker 4: up and start to dictate things a little bit too.

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Speaker 4: So I got three unders today here, Cowboys Jets. These

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Speaker 4: defenses are buzz good as anyone of football, right, We

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Speaker 4: saw Dallas roll up the Giants forty to nothing. That's

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Speaker 4: a team that won a playoff game and they shut

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Speaker 4: them out. Opening day, the Jets hold the Bills to sixteen.

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Speaker 4: They got four turnovers on Josh Allen. Both of these

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Speaker 4: defenses have great pass defense, both have nasty pass rush,

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Speaker 4: really good corners. And then obviously I got the bast

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Speaker 4: signal out today, guys because Mike Carson o wentz Jersey.

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Speaker 2: He looks good in green.

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Speaker 4: Get him in for the Jets because Zach Wilson socks.

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson is not good and a big part of

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Speaker 4: the under here, and I wanted to figure out how

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Speaker 4: do I bet against Zach Wilson. I don't think it's

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Speaker 4: necessarily to take the cow boy spread because maybe the

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Speaker 4: Jets defense does what it did Monday and keeps things close.

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Speaker 4: So I'm betting against Zach Wilson and kind of betting

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Speaker 4: on the Jets by thinking their defense hangs around here.

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Speaker 4: Zach Wilson in his career, when the totals forty four

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Speaker 4: below which it is well below here, eight and four

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Speaker 4: to the under, he's at eleven starts where the Jets

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Speaker 4: scored seventeen or last So the Jets last year were

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Speaker 4: forty year blow on a total in twelve of their

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Speaker 4: seventeen games, seventy one percent. That's the formula. We kind

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Speaker 4: of saw it Monday Night. I like and usually if

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Speaker 4: I'm playing a total, I like it because I see

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Speaker 4: multiple outs. So maybe we get a Monday night football

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Speaker 4: type game here. The Jets keep it close, it's that

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Speaker 4: annoying defensive game. It's Mike McCarthy doing McCarthy things, or

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Speaker 4: the Jets just suck and the offensive line is terrible,

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Speaker 4: Zach is bad. Cowboys win big thirty one six. Hey,

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Speaker 4: we're still under, so I like that here. And then

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Speaker 4: a key trend that I'm gonna be using an all

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Speaker 4: three picks Week two unders. So when we see that

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Speaker 4: the total is going to be low, Week two under

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Speaker 4: is when the total is forty year below since two

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Speaker 4: thousand and four, forty five, sixteen and three to the

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Speaker 4: under seventy four percent under hit rate. We have six

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Speaker 4: games this week with a total of forty year below.

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Speaker 4: I'm going under on three of them today. So give

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Speaker 4: me Cowboys Jets under thirty eight and a half to

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Speaker 4: start out.

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Speaker 3: I can't say I blame you going to the full

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Speaker 3: game because there were some Jets team totals out there

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Speaker 3: at just over two touchdowns. Now that numbers dropped beneath

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Speaker 3: two touchdowns, that's that's risky business. I feel like to

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Speaker 3: bet on the Jets to go under two touchdowns despite

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Speaker 3: the fact that the quarterback sucks. To use your use

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Speaker 3: your delivery there, Brandon. So I understand going to a

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Speaker 3: full game and there are outs. As you said, Luke,

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Speaker 3: what's going on? First pick for you today? Please for

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Speaker 3: Week two?

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Speaker 1: So the common theme you're probably gonna be saying across

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Speaker 1: anyone who gives out picks or just yourself is the

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Speaker 1: week two bounce back back angle, which is very fair

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Speaker 1: and very valid and it's really what I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be doing as well. But it is starting to lose

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Speaker 1: some traction, I think with books, everything sports betting wise

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Speaker 1: becoming way more mainstream. It never was a secret, but

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Speaker 1: I do think it is somewhat of the public side

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Speaker 1: at this point and it is not a quote unquote

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Speaker 1: as sharp in an angle.

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Speaker 2: As it used to be.

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Speaker 1: With that being said, my first pick is going to

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Speaker 1: be the Bengals playing three hosting the Ravens, and this

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Speaker 1: one is the Bengals coming off of a blowout against

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Speaker 1: the Browns, and I think the Browns defense is going

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Speaker 1: to do that to a lot of people this year.

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Speaker 1: And the Browns defense is very improved. And Joe Burrow

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Speaker 1: didn't play in the preseason. He was coming off of

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Speaker 1: that injury that he set out a lot of the

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Speaker 1: training camp. And if there is a bounce back spot

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Speaker 1: for anyone, this Bengals offense is done. Ravens are going

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Speaker 1: to be missing two corners Marcus Williams Marlin Humphrey. And

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Speaker 1: then on the other side of the Ravens are going

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Speaker 1: to be without Linderbaum and Staley most likely, So injuries

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Speaker 1: are piling up for the Ravens.

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Speaker 2: Those are all key guys. So you got a.

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Speaker 1: Secondary that is weak against probably one of the better

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Speaker 1: aerial attacks in the league. Then you got a Cincinnati

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Speaker 1: D line who is coming in Hungary going against a

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Speaker 1: Ravens O line that is a portion of themselves normally.

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Speaker 1: So this is just a bounce back spot for one

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Speaker 1: of the best teams in the league that is definitely

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Speaker 1: a super Bowl contender, it is a divisional favorite. That

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Speaker 1: is the one catch. But at the same time, this

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Speaker 1: was three and a half. I thought it would be

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Speaker 1: a little bit lower based off of last week, but

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Speaker 1: at three, yeah, I'll definitely take that.

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Speaker 3: I'm also curious Todd Monkin's still trying to install a

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Speaker 3: new offense with the Baltimore Ravens and with JK. Dobbins

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Speaker 3: out for the year, they're rotating backs. Now. Are is

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Speaker 3: laarat Old tempted to just say screw it, I'm just

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Speaker 3: going to start running around. Is there not necessarily infighting?

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Speaker 3: It's too early to predict that. But do the Ravens

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Speaker 3: get tempted to go back to their old ways, because well,

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Speaker 3: Lamar is really their only true backfield option that is

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Speaker 3: consistent until he gets hurt.

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Speaker 2: So and in the.

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Speaker 1: One I forgot to mention my trend which via Evan

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Speaker 1: Abrams saw this this morning. Teams off a double digit

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Speaker 1: loss in week one are thirty two and sixteen against

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Speaker 1: the spread in week two.

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Speaker 3: All right, very good gret Ney for welcome to our

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Speaker 3: Best Bets Pod. Great to have you joining us. What

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Speaker 3: do you got for your first best bet?

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Speaker 5: So my first bet is really a bounce back spot,

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Speaker 5: although not like he played terribly in the first matchup.

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Speaker 5: It's justin Herbert under two hundred and eighty two and

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Speaker 5: a half passing yards. He hit the under and the

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Speaker 5: first game, but I mean they still put up thirty

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Speaker 5: four points. It was just it was a fun game,

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Speaker 5: to say the least. But this number is just a

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Speaker 5: bit too high. So Herbert always a guy that think

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Speaker 5: one of the best passing quarterbacks in the league. He's

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Speaker 5: put up solid numbers, but he actually hasn't been great

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Speaker 5: going all the way back to last year, or at

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Speaker 5: least not great enough to justify this number. Two eighty

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Speaker 5: two is a lot. He's hit this under in five

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Speaker 5: games in a row going back to Week sixteen, I

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Speaker 5: think of last season. He does have a lot of

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Speaker 5: offense weapons. But we just actually got news that Eckler

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Speaker 5: has an ankle injury might be hindered. And why you

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Speaker 5: might think that might make him rely more on the

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Speaker 5: passing game, it actually means that the running game is

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Speaker 5: going to be used more. I mean they do a

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Speaker 5: lot of dump offs for Eckler. Eckler is a fantastic

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Speaker 5: receiving back now that he even played into came into

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Speaker 5: play for this bet when I made it. But can

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Speaker 5: only help and if the yard to if the number

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Speaker 5: drops a few yards. Then I'm still fine with that.

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Speaker 5: But he said this under in twelve out of his

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Speaker 5: last nineteen games. I believe he's going up against the Titans,

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Speaker 5: and Titans are a team that are going to slow

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Speaker 5: down the pace a little bit, twenty third pace last year.

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Speaker 5: They're going to give the ball to Derrick Henry a lot,

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Speaker 5: They're going to run the ball a lot. Clock is

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Speaker 5: going to be going for most of the game here,

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Speaker 5: going up against Tennessee, and while the not a good offense,

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Speaker 5: they're not really gonna have the ball in their hands

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Speaker 5: a ton. The Chargers are a three point favorite here,

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Speaker 5: which just adds to the under being a better play.

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Speaker 5: And so two eighty two is about ten fifteen yards

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Speaker 5: more than I haven't projected for, especially if Eckler doesn't

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Speaker 5: end up playing. So I'm rolling with the under in

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Speaker 5: the spot.

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Speaker 3: And to your point, Eckler was the second leading receiver

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Speaker 3: in that Miami game last week, had forty seven yards

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Speaker 3: four catches on five targets. Herbert passed for two twenty nine,

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Speaker 3: So yes, Eckler matters to that passing game for the Chargers. Brandon,

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Speaker 3: and you teed this up before. You're sticking with the

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Speaker 3: unders for week two? What do you go for your

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Speaker 3: second one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna go back to the Texans this week.

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Speaker 4: By this time, I'm taking the under. Gave me the

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Speaker 4: Colts Texans under thirty nine and a half. Look we

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Speaker 4: let off this season with Texans plus ten against the

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Speaker 4: Ravens last week. It did not go well for me,

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Speaker 4: but I'm not that discouraged. They played the Ravens about

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Speaker 4: even in yards and first downs. I thought the defense

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Speaker 4: in particular is really good. The problem is the Texans

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Speaker 4: could not score. The offense was in big trouble, particularly

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Speaker 4: the line. They are missing three starters on the line.

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Speaker 4: Josh Jones they traded for. He's a very good tackle.

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Speaker 4: They already have a very good left tackle. He's playing

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Speaker 4: left guard and he was not a very good left guard.

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Speaker 4: We got George Pant out of retirement, basically starting at

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Speaker 4: right tackle. I am not pleased with the offensive line

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Speaker 4: for the Texans right now, so.

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Speaker 2: CJ.

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Speaker 4: Stroud. He was fine, but he's not necessarily ready to

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Speaker 4: put up big numbers here. Texans scored nine last week,

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Speaker 4: So I still like the Texans. If you're curious about

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Speaker 4: the futures and all the Texans love that I've had.

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Speaker 4: I'm still on it. I'm not hedging out. I'm not

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Speaker 4: buying out, but I'm not gonna double invest in. I

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Speaker 4: think the under is the better play here because I

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Speaker 4: do believe in the defense. I do like what's happening here.

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Speaker 4: We have Anthony Richardson for the Colts, who look pretty good,

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Speaker 4: but now it's on the road. Now it is on

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Speaker 4: the road in a row debut in a pretty loud stadium,

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Speaker 4: usually against the defense that I thought was really good

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Speaker 4: last week, as good as I'd hoped they'd be. Dimiko

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Speaker 4: Ryan's had them playing well. Will Anderson was excellent, and

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Speaker 4: that pass rush was getting through, but it's Lamar Jackson,

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Speaker 4: so we didn't see a lot of results on it.

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Speaker 4: I think that they make life difficult on Richardson here

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Speaker 4: much more than the Jaguars did last week, AKA not

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Speaker 4: really at all. On the other side, Colts defensive line

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Speaker 4: to Forest Backner Grover Stewart, they played a really good

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Speaker 4: game last week, and I think that's trouble against the

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Speaker 4: Texans O line. So the way to hurt the Colts

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Speaker 4: is pass on them. That's really not a thing that

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Speaker 4: the Texans are built to do. Right now, I just

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Speaker 4: don't see a lot of points in this one, so

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Speaker 4: I would lean Texans here, but I'd rather play again

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Speaker 4: like the other game I said. I think the Texans

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Speaker 4: can win with a close, low scoring game or maybe

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Speaker 4: a one sided game. But either way, I'll just take

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Speaker 4: the under and give me multiple outs here. So three

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Speaker 4: of the last four matchups these teams were at forty

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Speaker 4: or below. Texans scored nine last week, the Colts offense

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Speaker 4: scored fourteen. The headed defensive touchdown in there. It's not

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Speaker 4: a lot of offense here right now. It's two roky quarterbacks.

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Speaker 4: It's a pretty easy read on that front. Week two

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Speaker 4: forty and below under, same as the trend that said

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Speaker 4: last ten seventy four percent. There Colts Texans under thirty

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Speaker 4: nine and a half.

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Speaker 3: Two rookie quarterbacks, and Brandon is aiming under. Makes sense

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Speaker 3: to me if you just leave it at the two

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks playing in just their second NFL game. Luke your

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Speaker 3: second pick for Week two.

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Speaker 1: So my second one, I actually saw the injury report

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Speaker 1: and flipped from a different pick that I had, And

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Speaker 1: this one's going to be the Falcons money line right now.

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Speaker 1: It is, I believe minus one to eighteen and I

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Speaker 1: do expect this one to continue to go up. The

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Speaker 1: line is one and a half at the moment, where

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Speaker 1: all week the Falcons have been a small dog plus

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Speaker 1: one plus one and a half until Aaron Jones and

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Speaker 1: Christian Watson are both trending towards not playing someday, which

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Speaker 1: I would definitely lean on the side of precautionary, especially

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Speaker 1: with Aaron Jones and up being a hamstring, I mean

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Speaker 1: Christian Watson as well, which without those two it really

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Speaker 1: leaves the Packers with.

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Speaker 2: No explosiveness, like they have no weapons.

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Speaker 1: They have AJ Dillon, Romeo Dobbs, who also is coming

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Speaker 1: off of a hamstring, and AJ Dillon, I just he's

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Speaker 1: just never been in it.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he is it. I'm not worried about

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Speaker 2: him at all.

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Speaker 1: Jordan Love looked fantastic last week, but again it's one week.

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Speaker 1: It's Week one against an awful Bears defense, and now

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Speaker 1: we're going on the road in to Atlanta against a

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Speaker 1: team that's definitely gonna be able to run on them.

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Speaker 1: Desbon Ritter not great, but at the same time, Falcons

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Speaker 1: run game is great, and the Packers are a siev

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Speaker 1: up front. They give up rushing yards, and I just

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Speaker 1: see this one without Aaron Jones and Watson, and honestly,

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Speaker 1: quarterback is the only one that really matters in the end.

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Speaker 1: But when you get a couple guys and there are

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Speaker 1: two of your three or maybe four offensive weapons, I

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Speaker 1: just I don't know what this offense is gonna look like,

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Speaker 1: and I don't think it's gonna look good against a

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Speaker 1: very improved Falcons defense.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, this was your look aheadline last week when we

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Speaker 3: concluded the show. Care to follow up on this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, obviously I like this pick. Part of the look

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Speaker 4: on the look ahead was in case the Bears beat

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Speaker 4: up on the Packers by running on them, and this

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Speaker 4: line moved and obviously didn't happen. The Packers looked really good,

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Speaker 4: but I think Luke nailed it here. Packers looked really

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Speaker 4: good because their defense was leaving dudes wide open by

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Speaker 4: like ten yards, or that the Bears defense was so

295
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Speaker 4: Jordan Love looked good, of course, but you're gonna look

296
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Speaker 4: pretty good when you're gonna just dial it deep and

297
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Speaker 4: hit guys in stride. So I think when you see

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Speaker 4: it against the Falcons defense, now, that really looked quite good.

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Speaker 4: In Week one, Jesse Bates. We talked about him two

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Speaker 4: interceptions in Week one. He was all over the place,

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Speaker 4: and I think they're gonna be a good test. And

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Speaker 4: really that run game is the key for me. Like

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Speaker 4: Luke said, I think Atlanta will run all over this

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Speaker 4: Green Bay defense and that's why I like this one still.

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Speaker 3: Okay, a couple of picks for that Falcons defense as

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Speaker 3: well of Bryce Young And look, I know Jordan Love's

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Speaker 3: been in the league now for four years since he

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Speaker 3: was drafted, but he's still getting his first reps as

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Speaker 3: an NFL starter. To Luke's point, grant your second one.

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Speaker 3: You're going back to the quarterback position player prop angle.

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Speaker 5: Yep, Yeah, this is one that I got it two

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Speaker 5: forty four and a half. I think it's up to

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Speaker 5: two fifty one and a half. I still like that.

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Speaker 5: I think it should be at two sixty five to

315
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Speaker 5: sixty at least in this spot. And it's Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if they're not incorporating any It just

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Speaker 5: seems like a neutral game line to me. Uh. He's

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Speaker 5: going up against the Chiefs, though Chiefs obviously going to

320
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Speaker 5: be a high scoring affairs should be a close game

321
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Speaker 5: with a three and a half point spread should be

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Speaker 5: high scoring. With fifty one and a half point total here,

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Speaker 5: I don't see why they wouldn't let him air the

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Speaker 5: ball out in this spot going up against the Chiefs,

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Speaker 5: they're a below average pass defense. Lawrence now another year

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Speaker 5: under Doug Peterson, another year of experience, he should only

327
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Speaker 5: be better. He didn't hit the over in the first

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Speaker 5: game this season, but it was a weird match going

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Speaker 5: up against the Colts with Richards in the first start

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Speaker 5: and just the strange overall this spot. I'm almost certain

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Speaker 5: it's going to be a barnburner here, Like I see

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Speaker 5: Lawrence having a big game, and we haven't even taken

333
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Speaker 5: into account the fact that he has Calvin Ridley in

334
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Speaker 5: the offense. Down Ridley was solid in Week one. He's

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Speaker 5: one of the better pass catchers in the league, and

336
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Speaker 5: people forget that because of his suspension. So Lawrence positive matchup,

337
00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 5: high scoring game, better receiving core than last year, another

338
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Speaker 5: year of experience, and we're getting the line that he

339
00:16:34,440 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 5: basically hit a fifty percent clip last year. So none

340
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Speaker 5: of this really makes sense to me. So I really

341
00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 5: really like the over in the spot.

342
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Speaker 3: Quick thought on Chris Jones being back for the Chiefs,

343
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Speaker 3: that would be my only question.

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Speaker 5: It definitely hurts, but I mean he's not going to

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Speaker 5: be fully ready to go because of the holdout, so

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Speaker 5: I mean it's not great, but still it's not the

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Speaker 5: Chiefs pasity. He's not at best their average, I would say,

348
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Speaker 5: but they're probably above average matchup, and because of the

349
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Speaker 5: game pace, I'm not really paying too much attention to that,

350
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Speaker 5: and I think there's a decent chance that Chiefs get

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Speaker 5: out to in early lead here, and even if Kelsey

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Speaker 5: doesn't play, then Chiefs Mahomes can get it done pretty

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Speaker 5: much anytime. Just disregard the last week matchup versus the Lions,

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Speaker 5: where that was just one of the funnest games I've

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Speaker 5: seen all year. Well it's a short year, but I've

356
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Speaker 5: seen in a while.

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Speaker 3: Okay, good stuff. The Action Network podcast is presented by

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00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:35,399
Speaker 3: BETMGM used bonus code Action when signing up to get

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00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:39,520
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Speaker 3: if your first bet loses. For new users in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan,

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Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, and Wyoming.

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Speaker 3: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 3: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler snake draft style.

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00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,639
Speaker 3: We're going back to grant and your pick, your final

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Speaker 3: pick is related to Sunday Night football? What can you

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Speaker 3: tell us?

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's gonna be a fun game, Dolphins going up

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Speaker 5: in the Patriots. And this is an exciting bet. It's

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Speaker 5: not one you're gonna want to watch, but I mean

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Speaker 5: I find it excited amorong with the under of five

371
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 5: and a half rushing yards for Tua. It is fun

372
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Speaker 5: just watching every single play, like, don't scramble, don't scramble,

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Speaker 5: don't scramble. But this is a high ev bet in

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Speaker 5: my opinion. Tua well early on in his career, first

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Speaker 5: one two years he was in there, he was scrambling

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Speaker 5: a little bit more. But we saw what happened last

377
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Speaker 5: year multiple concussions. Like they're worried about his health status,

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Speaker 5: so I don't think they're gonna have him running a

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00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 5: whole lot. And that kind of shows last year since

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00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 5: the beginning of the season, he wasn't running it on

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00:18:46,920 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 5: he only had positive yards. I think five out of

382
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Speaker 5: fourteen games last season, and he only hit the over

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00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 5: and four of those games. This first game of the season,

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00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 5: he did brush the ball a couple of times, but

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00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 5: still only ended up a five yards. I'm assuming he

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00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:04,920
Speaker 5: only gets maybe one carry on the ground. His median

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00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,520
Speaker 5: outcome I think is less than one carry. So five

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00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 5: and a half yards for a guy that might not

389
00:19:10,359 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 5: take a single rushing attempt the entire game seems too high.

390
00:19:13,600 --> 00:19:15,679
Speaker 5: The Patriots are probably going to try and contain him

391
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Speaker 5: a little, but yes they have to worry about obviously

392
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 5: Waddle and Tyler reek Hill in this spot, but two

393
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,760
Speaker 5: us probably in all likelihood not going to rush the

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00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,680
Speaker 5: ball once. So you're just hoping that if he does,

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Speaker 5: doesn't go for more than five and a half yards.

396
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,439
Speaker 5: Plus the fact that they're likely going to be winning

397
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Speaker 5: in this game, keep the ball on the ground, be

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00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 5: a little bit more conservative, and potentially need the ball

399
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,080
Speaker 5: out at the end of the game. This line is

400
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 5: just too high. I haven't projected to hit this under

401
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,640
Speaker 5: at over a sixty percent clip here.

402
00:19:45,359 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, these are the ones that are like.

403
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 1: The two good to be true ones, where like everyone's

404
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,960
Speaker 1: like five and a half and you just want to

405
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,359
Speaker 1: bet the over and like the lower the over under

406
00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:57,120
Speaker 1: on a yard is like usually the better. The under

407
00:19:57,280 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 1: is where I used to do it tom Brady all

408
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 1: the time, and then like the under would hit with

409
00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,320
Speaker 1: like the kneeing, like he'd be over, like he'd get

410
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 1: like two yards and then he'd knee it at the

411
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:11,399
Speaker 1: end of the game and go under, which it's insane

412
00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 1: to me that like kneeing is a rushing yard or

413
00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: minus one or whatever it is.

414
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Speaker 2: But uh, yeah, this one's fun.

415
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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's always my favorite. Last year is taking Tom

416
00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,679
Speaker 5: Brady under rushing yards, having him sneak the ball in

417
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,000
Speaker 5: get to one and being pissed off until the end

418
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 5: of the game and he knees it back down to

419
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 5: zero and you gotta.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, let me add two things. Number one, I'm

421
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Speaker 3: going to the game, so now I'm excited. I'm inclined,

422
00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 3: so I will be one that will watch Grant. I

423
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,439
Speaker 3: will watch like you probably will because you're betting it.

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Speaker 3: And number two, there was a moment Granted he like

425
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Speaker 3: you said, he ran the ball a couple times against

426
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Speaker 3: the Chargers. There was a moment at the end of

427
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 3: that game on a third and ten where he hit

428
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 3: Tyreek Hill down the right sideline where I think two

429
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 3: has got some confidence now to step up in the

430
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 3: pocket and not just completely run with it like a

431
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 3: chicken with his head cut off, and actually step up

432
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Speaker 3: in the pocket and make throws off. So if he's

433
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Speaker 3: got any of that confidence carrying into week two, I

434
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: like the angle as well.

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Speaker 2: He couldn't run it on that. He could have run

436
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:07,840
Speaker 2: it on that play too, and he didn't.

437
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 3: He didn't, right, so and it worked. So point being

438
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 3: is I think he's gonna have some confidence to to

439
00:21:12,920 --> 00:21:15,240
Speaker 3: step up in that pocket now. Grant will probably be

440
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,679
Speaker 3: pissing his pants, but hey to his good confidence in

441
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 3: that regard, at least going from last week to this week.

442
00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:24,119
Speaker 3: Uh luke, yours second or part of me your third

443
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:25,840
Speaker 3: best bet, And we're gonna go to Monday Night.

444
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,000
Speaker 1: We're gonna go with the Steelers as a two and

445
00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 1: a half point underdog hosting the Browns. I'm gonna night football,

446
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: which this is going to be a bounce back spot

447
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: going against the Browns defense that just made the Bengals

448
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:45,560
Speaker 1: offense or pedestrian. But this one, it's it's really pretty simple.

449
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,800
Speaker 1: You have a divisional underdog coming off of a blowout

450
00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: loss last week, which we were on them last week,

451
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 1: and it's just on Monday Football and Week one usually

452
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: the home teams are they're really hyped up, and then

453
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 1: when you see them go on the road the very

454
00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,840
Speaker 1: next week, vice versa. I mean, you can tend to

455
00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: see someone of a letdown historically, at least from my perception.

456
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,880
Speaker 1: And the Browns just had a fantastic win, which all

457
00:22:10,920 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: these divisional games week one two are crazy to me,

458
00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:15,919
Speaker 1: but they have a second divisional game in a row.

459
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: I'm going to Pittsburgh Mike tom win home Dog and

460
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 1: then Pickett. And this is purely I don't know, conspiracy,

461
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:28,960
Speaker 1: whatever it is, but Pickett like halfway through that game,

462
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: like he didn't look great.

463
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 2: And I'm not Gonvins.

464
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 1: He wasn't concussed the majority of that game, which we

465
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:37,119
Speaker 1: would hope that he's okay because he isn't on the

466
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,680
Speaker 1: injury report. But they're down Deyonte. That's okay.

467
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 2: They have other weapons and this is just a spot

468
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 2: that you just take it in principle.

469
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 3: Okay.

470
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 2: So Steelers plus two and a half.

471
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 3: Mike Tomlin raw raw. I know Brandon said this last week.

472
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 3: He's better as a raw Rod Dog later in the year.

473
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,800
Speaker 3: Last twenty years has a dog Mike Tomlin fifty three

474
00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 3: thirty one and one against the spread, courtesy of Evan Abrams,

475
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 3: our director of research. Brandon, you're on this game too,

476
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 3: but I think we're gonna have a consistency here for your.

477
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 4: Three picks, I am, I'll take the under. Give me

478
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 4: the Steelers Browns under thirty nine, and man, I spent

479
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:14,359
Speaker 4: the last four days trying to talk myself into just

480
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,720
Speaker 4: taking the Steelers like Luke did. I almost came here

481
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 4: today with Texans, Falcons, Steelers, the exact same free picks

482
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 4: I made last week, but I lost two of them.

483
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 4: Glad it sound a little better for today, But man,

484
00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 4: my trends love the Steelers, the raw Ras spots Stefanski's

485
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 4: badge a favorite bad in the division. Luke, your stat

486
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 4: earlier about teams coming off a double digit loss, that

487
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,359
Speaker 4: one hits here. It all lines up for the Steelers.

488
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 4: But then I watched the game and I did not

489
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 4: like Kenny Pickett, and I do not like that offensive line,

490
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 4: and I do not like Matt Canada. Matt Canna get

491
00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 4: out of here, like this offense and running what they're

492
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 4: running in Pittsburgh.

493
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 2: This doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

494
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 4: And now you lose Deontay Johnson, who is a really

495
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: important security blanket type receiver. I think that's going to

496
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,560
Speaker 4: make passing game a bit more one dimensional. And then

497
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:06,640
Speaker 4: you got Cleveland, whose defense was awesome last week. Their

498
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 4: defense I was very high on coming to there. I

499
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 4: had them seventh in my preseason rankings, and man, they

500
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 4: look the part. Jim Schwartz has that defense flying around

501
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:17,240
Speaker 4: the field. He's moving guys into different roles than they've been.

502
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,399
Speaker 4: Miles Garrett like lines up an inside linebacker for a

503
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 4: little bit. He's coming off the edge and going all

504
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 4: over the place. The d backs, they are really good.

505
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 4: Cleveland held the Bengals, who were a lot of people's

506
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 4: Super Bowl champion pick, to three points, right, Joe Burrow's

507
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,600
Speaker 4: worst game of his career. Constant pressure. So I do

508
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 4: not like this Pittsburgh offense, even in a good spot.

509
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 4: I don't like them at home against the Browns. But

510
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 4: I don't like the Browns offense here either. Deshaun Watson,

511
00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 4: despite the easy win last week, I'm not seeing it

512
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: like we got a lot more of last year. Deshaun

513
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 4: Watson and not a lot of Houston Deshaun Watson. So

514
00:24:56,720 --> 00:24:59,960
Speaker 4: now we're on the road in Pittsburgh in this division

515
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,360
Speaker 4: the road spot and Jack Conklin the right tackle out

516
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 4: for the season, So now Cleveland will start a rookie

517
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 4: right tackle, Dwan Jones, who I like. We've got a

518
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 4: rookie fourth rounder against guess what, DJ Watt and Hi

519
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 4: Smith and all the guys from Pittsburgh, probably the best

520
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: pass rush in the league. Watson eats sacks like it's lunch,

521
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 4: so he's gonna just keep getting sacked and under pressure

522
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 4: all game long. I just don't see a lot of

523
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:30,680
Speaker 4: points here. This is one of those like classic AFC

524
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 4: North thirteen to fourteen or seventeen to sixteen or whatever.

525
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 4: Like we're grinding out down toward the end. And while

526
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 4: I have a lot of trends on Pittsburgh, I have

527
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:45,440
Speaker 4: just so many trends toward the under. Here again Week two,

528
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 4: forty and below, seventy four percent to the under. We

529
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,160
Speaker 4: talked about that one, but primetime unders, we know that's

530
00:25:52,200 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 4: been a thing. Sixty percent to the under over the

531
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 4: last four years. Home underdog unders sixty one percent to

532
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:02,479
Speaker 4: the under the last two years Stefanski when the totals

533
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 4: forty three or below sixty nine percent to the under

534
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, who remember most of this is not with

535
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 4: Stefanski forty two or below his under seventy eight percent.

536
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 4: Lots of trends line up here. Steelers Brown's average total

537
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: of the last two years when they've played is just

538
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:19,600
Speaker 4: under forty one.

539
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 3: I do have a little djivu here.

540
00:26:21,880 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 4: I believe about this time last year, I gave out

541
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 4: a Monday Night Steelers Browns under and victory elapsed and

542
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,200
Speaker 4: celebrated it, and then we had the most awful ending

543
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,360
Speaker 4: like ky Wo wo touchdown walk off that went over

544
00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 4: on the last play. So I will be waiting until

545
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 4: after the game and all zero's on the clock to

546
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 4: celebrate when the Steelers win or cover by two and

547
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 4: get Luke's pick and hit the under thirty nine against

548
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:50,880
Speaker 4: the Browns.

549
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 3: Wow, I remember that now that you said that.

550
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: You're same boy, I'd forgotten. Don't remind people you got.

551
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 3: Chirped to death and you really I deserved it good too.

552
00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 3: Steelers as a home dog under Tomlin sixteen four and

553
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:08,880
Speaker 3: three against the spread. All right, gentlemen, more memories are

554
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,600
Speaker 3: made when you're there for live NFL action and when

555
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: you need tickets, our friends at Ticketmaster have got you covered.

556
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 3: As the official marketplace of the NFL. Ticketmaster gives you

557
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Speaker 3: more ways to find your perfect seat. Their interactive seat

558
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,800
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559
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: your section to make sure you have the best view

560
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 3: of those pivotal plays and if your plans change. Ticketmaster

561
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,240
Speaker 3: gives you more flexibility to sell or transfer your tickets.

562
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:38,800
Speaker 3: Plus mobile tickets make getting in on game day a breeze.

563
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: You can even customize your Ticketmaster app to rep your

564
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 3: team's colors. Find tickets today at ticketmaster dot com. Slash

565
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 3: NFL the rap as we always do with Brandon's look aheadline,

566
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: what do you got for Week three?

567
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 4: Week three? This one was super easy, jumped off the

568
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 4: page for me. Give me the Buffalo Bills minus five

569
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 4: at the commanders. Here's the case. The Buffalo Bills are

570
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 4: minus five at the commanders. What are we doing? What

571
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 4: is this pick? The Buffalo Bills are about to roll

572
00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 4: up the Raiders and restore faith in them. Josh Allen

573
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 4: doesn't turn it over four times every week, but he

574
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 4: does like once every six weeks. Right, we did the bad.

575
00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:17,760
Speaker 4: Now we're gonna get too good again. The Bills will

576
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 4: be fine. Everyone will believe in them again. The Commanders

577
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 4: are one to o and looked awful. They were so

578
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 4: bad against the Cardinals. I thought they basically played the Cardinals,

579
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 4: even who we all agree are the worst team in football.

580
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 4: Sam Howell, I thought was pretty terrible in that game.

581
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:36,159
Speaker 4: The offense didn't move the ball. I dropped the Commanders

582
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 4: to thirtieth in my power rankings after a win. They're

583
00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 4: one to oh and I dropped them to thirtieth. Five

584
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,480
Speaker 4: points five and a half at some books is crazy.

585
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 4: This line gets to six easily. I think saven I

586
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked if he gets past seven even as

587
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 4: quickly as Sunday Night. Last three seasons, the Bills win,

588
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 4: they win. Have covered this line thirty one out of

589
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 4: thirty nine times, seventy nine percent they win. They're gonna

590
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 4: win big. Here Bill's minus five at Commanders.

591
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 3: All right, that is gonna do it. Here on the

592
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast for our NFL Week two Best Bets

593
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: episode presented by bet MGM. If you missed the full

594
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 3: betting preview with Raybond and Stucky. That episode is also

595
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 3: out now. You can tune in for our weekly recap

596
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 3: episodes every Monday morning. Jill Galant, Evan Abrams, they'll be

597
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 3: on that show for you. That'll release first thing Monday morning.

598
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 3: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network

599
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: app to see all of the guys picks, so you

600
00:29:31,680 --> 00:29:34,360
Speaker 3: can also track your own best of luck with your

601
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: best this weekend for Brant need for Luke Swain, Brandon Anderson,

602
00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen. We'll see you here next time on the

603
00:29:40,360 --> 00:29:58,520
Speaker 3: Action Network podcast and presented by that MGM.

604
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

605
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

606
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607
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