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Speaker 1: We get right to our guest, Lorene Gilbert's CEO at

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Speaker 1: Wealthwise Financial. So Lorene, we can get to the Fed

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Speaker 1: minutes in the market reaction. I want to go to

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Speaker 1: the technical standpoint first, because it was probably pretty natural

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Speaker 1: that the SMP five would bump up against the two

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Speaker 1: hundred day moving average and pause for a bit. Obviously

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Speaker 1: what happens next could be interesting, but hard to really

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Speaker 1: see a lot of conviction ahead of another CPI report

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Speaker 1: and a Job's report on what the Fed might do,

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Speaker 1: So is sideways the most likely at the moment. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and to clarify, it's the fifty day moving average. SMP

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Speaker 1: has moved above that, it is now trading above that.

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Speaker 1: Another technical that we've seen is that there's been a

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Speaker 1: retractment from the lows of the SMP and it's retraced

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Speaker 1: that by about half. So both of those are good

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Speaker 1: technical indicators looking at a kind of the momentum behind

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Speaker 1: that next bull market run. And until you get above

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Speaker 1: the two hundred day, you can hardly argue outside of

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Speaker 1: a bear market, this is a bear market rally until

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Speaker 1: that happens, I agree that we still that's another big

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Speaker 1: milestone for sure. Um So it's a good indicator right now,

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Speaker 1: but the better indicator certainly would be a two hun

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Speaker 1: day average. But we think that a lot of investors

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Speaker 1: will be missing out on some of this rally that

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Speaker 1: we've seen since the lows of the market because there

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Speaker 1: is so much concern and so much talk about a recession,

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Speaker 1: which we don't see imminently as a threat. Lourene David here,

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Speaker 1: So what would leads assuming do we we break at

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Speaker 1: least well in terms of price there of course that

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Speaker 1: moving average on on the index, and certainly we do

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Speaker 1: need to see more market positive breath really in this

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Speaker 1: market to take as above sustainably. What do you think

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Speaker 1: the next catalyst would be end? Is it necessarily the Fed? Well,

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Speaker 1: the Fed is really key here and that's what was

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Speaker 1: so good about hearing the FEDS minutes, the f O

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Speaker 1: m C minutes today because in you know, even though

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Speaker 1: the market was you know, we saw negativity in the

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Speaker 1: market today, in my opinion, it is positive and that

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Speaker 1: they didn't say anything that was shocking, So there was

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Speaker 1: nothing shocking about what they said. I mean, persistent inflation.

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Speaker 1: We know that they're concerned about it, we know that,

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Speaker 1: but really what it pointed to was them staying the

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Speaker 1: course number one, but to also taking pauses after each

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Speaker 1: rate increase. So it does put that probability of the

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Speaker 1: next rate increase at fifty basis points and then probably

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Speaker 1: two more basis points. So I would not expect a

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Speaker 1: pause before we have another probably one percent increase. Lorene.

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Speaker 1: So in the previous segment we talked about essentially the

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Speaker 1: sort of hurdles this this you as equity market will

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Speaker 1: need to get over. Let's extend the time horizon here.

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Speaker 1: When do you think we'll be able to retrace all

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Speaker 1: the way back to all time highs? And what conditions

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Speaker 1: need to be in place? Well, that's tough to determine,

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Speaker 1: but here's what I'll tell you, Um when we look

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Speaker 1: at some other statistics, for instance, that we're coming up

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Speaker 1: on a mid term election cycle, and we look at

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Speaker 1: the SMP one year from that point, and not anything

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Speaker 1: to do with politics. It just has to do every

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Speaker 1: time there's a mid term which seems to change things

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Speaker 1: and and what happens then the markets become more positive.

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Speaker 1: So when we look at those one year numbers out

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Speaker 1: for the mid term elections, they tend to be good.

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Speaker 1: So if we give you know, given that we also

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Speaker 1: see the first half of the year being as negative

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Speaker 1: as it was second and a half the year will

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Speaker 1: probably be more positive. And then we have the mid

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Speaker 1: terms as well, so that a boats for a positive.

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Speaker 1: You know, we can't tell you exactly when it's going

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Speaker 1: to happen when we get back up to those highs again,

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Speaker 1: as you say, since it takes a while for the

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Speaker 1: story to unfold, is this almost a time when you

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Speaker 1: can play government policy more than than the macro Well,

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Speaker 1: I think we have to look at all factors, right

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Speaker 1: We have to look at the macro economics for sure,

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Speaker 1: I have to look at um specific You know what's

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Speaker 1: hard right now is you know where do you go

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Speaker 1: as far as investing. And it's not so clear as

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Speaker 1: far as any particular industry per se or sector in

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Speaker 1: a sense. But certainly we do think value continues to

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Speaker 1: be a place to be for a higher inflationary period

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Speaker 1: of time. Dividend paying companies tend to do well in

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Speaker 1: that kind of environment. So when we're looking at the

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Speaker 1: domestic equity markets in the United States, we would favor

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Speaker 1: that value trade over the growth. Not that we give

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Speaker 1: up growth, but more of a tilt towards the value. Loreen,

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Speaker 1: what about income and I'm talking fixed income here. I

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Speaker 1: mean it's almost a lifetime opportunity that you get triple

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Speaker 1: A sovereigns at what three, triple A investment grade corporate

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Speaker 1: corporates here at what seven? What do you think about

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Speaker 1: that space? Yeah, I think that we've had a significant

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Speaker 1: move a year to date that's frightened people on the

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Speaker 1: fixed income side. And that's understandable given that we look

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Speaker 1: to fix income to moderate our overall portfolios. But as

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Speaker 1: you said, this is an opportunity. So when we look

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Speaker 1: from here, we like the longer end of the curve.

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Speaker 1: We like municipal municipalities. Um, So we like a lot

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Speaker 1: of things about fixing come and I think once again,

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Speaker 1: fixing income will start to be that ballast that we're

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Speaker 1: looking for in overall portfolio. The reason I mentioned government

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Speaker 1: policy was it's actually in your notes, um looking at

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Speaker 1: the Inflation Reduction Act with some some ideas there. Do

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Speaker 1: you want to share those? Sure? So? You know, I

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Speaker 1: think with the Inflation Reduction Act, we're looking at utilities

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Speaker 1: being that is one area we do think will benefit

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Speaker 1: specifically because those tax credits can be realized directly by

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Speaker 1: me by the utilities, whereas they weren't able to be

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Speaker 1: directly they used to have to partner with private sector.

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Speaker 1: So that can help in the utility space. And then

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at the clean energy tax cuts, looking

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Speaker 1: at some of the components that would help on the

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Speaker 1: front end of some of those companies. So we're looking

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Speaker 1: down the value chain because in the front end a

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Speaker 1: lot of that has already been UH had quite a

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Speaker 1: run up year to date. So with that, looking for

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Speaker 1: what goes behind that. The other thing I've mentioned is

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Speaker 1: that corporations are going to probably push back those buybacks

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Speaker 1: into two given that that tax starts in Lorine very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Give us a non consensus goal. What are we not

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Speaker 1: talking about that we should We're not talking about China,

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Speaker 1: and we think that China is still a huge global

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Speaker 1: risk because we don't think we're getting all the information.

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Speaker 1: The property implosion is still a huge issue. There has

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Speaker 1: not really been absorbed to the Chinese economy or the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world, and so when you hear UH

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Speaker 1: of all of this is going on, it's still a risk. Loreen,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much. Loreen Gilbert, their CEO of wealth

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Speaker 1: Wise Financial this is Bloomberg,