WEBVTT - Make/Miss/Square | Fri NBA Best Bets

0:00:01.960 --> 0:00:05.519
<v Speaker 1>What these young bloods have to understand, that this game

0:00:06.340 --> 0:00:10.240
<v Speaker 1>has always been and will always be about buckets.

0:00:11.119 --> 0:00:12.320
<v Speaker 2>Just attack the basket.

0:00:12.360 --> 0:00:13.060
<v Speaker 1>Stop it!

0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:16.880
<v Speaker 3>Stop it! You cannot.

0:00:17.579 --> 0:00:19.800
<v Speaker 2>Do it like that! Oh!

0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:21.740
<v Speaker 3>With no regard.

0:00:22.890 --> 0:00:25.230
<v Speaker 1>For human life! Bang!

0:00:25.450 --> 0:00:25.610
<v Speaker 2>Bang!

0:00:25.650 --> 0:00:29.870
<v Speaker 1>I cannot believe you've done it again! Are you kidding me? Oh!

0:00:31.330 --> 0:00:35.310
<v Speaker 2>Welcome to Buckets, brought to you by DraftKings. My name's

0:00:35.370 --> 0:00:38.769
<v Speaker 2>Matt Moore. This is the Action Network's daily NBA betting show,

0:00:38.790 --> 0:00:41.330
<v Speaker 2>brought to you by DraftKings Sportsbook. Glad to have you

0:00:41.350 --> 0:00:44.130
<v Speaker 2>guys with us. This is the future Jays. I got

0:00:44.170 --> 0:00:46.879
<v Speaker 2>Joe Dallara from the Cash That podcast, Jim Turvey from

0:00:46.920 --> 0:00:49.420
<v Speaker 2>Roto Grinders. Make sure to check out all of their

0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:53.980
<v Speaker 2>work across the vast internet. Jim, obviously also the host

0:00:54.140 --> 0:00:58.480
<v Speaker 2>of our WNBA Bucket Show, who has wrapped up a

0:00:58.500 --> 0:01:03.280
<v Speaker 2>phenomenal season. Congrats, Jim, on another season in the WNBA trenches.

0:01:04.040 --> 0:01:06.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was fun. We cashed a ticket that we

0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:10.770
<v Speaker 3>gave out on the season recap last year, Valkyries 30-1,

0:01:11.200 --> 0:01:14.050
<v Speaker 3>and tossed out another long shot there on this year.

0:01:14.130 --> 0:01:16.370
<v Speaker 3>So hopefully we can run that back next year. It'd

0:01:16.390 --> 0:01:17.250
<v Speaker 3>be pretty fun to have that.

0:01:19.890 --> 0:01:21.869
<v Speaker 2>Everything we talk about on tonight's show can be found

0:01:21.910 --> 0:01:24.150
<v Speaker 2>in the award-winning Action Network app. You can track your picks.

0:01:24.170 --> 0:01:26.110
<v Speaker 2>You can find all sorts of cool information on there.

0:01:26.130 --> 0:01:28.030
<v Speaker 2>Make sure to check that out as well. Glad to

0:01:28.069 --> 0:01:31.100
<v Speaker 2>have you guys with us here on A Thursday night.

0:01:31.420 --> 0:01:33.520
<v Speaker 2>We do start Friday night shows this week. So make

0:01:33.540 --> 0:01:35.759
<v Speaker 2>sure to be on the lookout for that. It'll be

0:01:35.800 --> 0:01:38.920
<v Speaker 2>me and Joe DeLera and Andrew O'Connor Watts hanging with you.

0:01:39.030 --> 0:01:41.770
<v Speaker 2>Also very excited to have Doug Zarian joining us on Buckets.

0:01:41.790 --> 0:01:44.390
<v Speaker 2>Probably starting next week. I think it depends on if

0:01:44.510 --> 0:01:46.390
<v Speaker 2>I adjust the schedule or not to get Doug on.

0:01:47.150 --> 0:01:50.090
<v Speaker 2>But the Buckets universe is expanding. On tonight's show, Future Jays,

0:01:50.110 --> 0:01:52.330
<v Speaker 2>we're going to talk about Miss Make Playoffs. That's going

0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:56.540
<v Speaker 2>to be our futures content for the night. No futures

0:01:56.580 --> 0:01:58.240
<v Speaker 2>best bet this week because I don't want to force

0:01:58.260 --> 0:02:00.600
<v Speaker 2>the guys into making something where it's like, Hey, it's

0:02:00.640 --> 0:02:03.710
<v Speaker 2>been two weeks. Where's your fucking futures clowns? Like, I

0:02:03.730 --> 0:02:05.230
<v Speaker 2>don't want to do that. And so we're going to do,

0:02:05.250 --> 0:02:08.190
<v Speaker 2>we're just going to talk through miss make playoffs. I

0:02:08.210 --> 0:02:09.910
<v Speaker 2>do think Jim has some positions that he wants to

0:02:10.270 --> 0:02:12.230
<v Speaker 2>go ahead and at least talk about. And, and, and

0:02:12.570 --> 0:02:14.410
<v Speaker 2>the good thing is that when the three of us

0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.160
<v Speaker 2>get together, we actually, a lot of times we're like, yeah, no,

0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:18.419
<v Speaker 2>we'll just kind of talk about it. And then by

0:02:18.440 --> 0:02:19.880
<v Speaker 2>the end of it, you're like, yeah, that's a really

0:02:19.919 --> 0:02:20.560
<v Speaker 2>good bet.

0:02:20.580 --> 0:02:26.340
<v Speaker 3>I'm actually going to 80 to one coach of the year.

0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.370
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. We just wind up finding it. So, We will

0:02:29.389 --> 0:02:31.290
<v Speaker 2>get into that on today's show. Glad to have you

0:02:31.310 --> 0:02:33.690
<v Speaker 2>guys with us. We'll also do obviously best bets for

0:02:33.710 --> 0:02:36.750
<v Speaker 2>the Friday slate, big slate in the cup on Friday.

0:02:36.870 --> 0:02:39.230
<v Speaker 2>We will do another cup check in next Thursday. I

0:02:39.250 --> 0:02:41.739
<v Speaker 2>will force you guys to have thoughts on where we're

0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.000
<v Speaker 2>at after two weeks of cup play next week. So

0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:46.080
<v Speaker 2>next week on the future Jays, just heads up boys,

0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:48.580
<v Speaker 2>bring your cup stuff for next week.

0:02:48.639 --> 0:02:51.080
<v Speaker 3>Cup check is definitely the name of this. Cup check

0:02:51.120 --> 0:02:51.660
<v Speaker 3>is great.

0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:52.780
<v Speaker 1>Cup check is great.

0:02:54.610 --> 0:02:58.290
<v Speaker 2>All right, let's go ahead and talk mismake playoffs. I'm

0:02:58.330 --> 0:03:00.230
<v Speaker 2>not going to go through all of the odds because

0:03:00.290 --> 0:03:02.710
<v Speaker 2>that would be a lot of odds, the numbers that

0:03:02.730 --> 0:03:04.480
<v Speaker 2>I would just rattle off, and this is not a

0:03:04.500 --> 0:03:10.160
<v Speaker 2>Brandon Anderson podcast. So I went ahead and took a

0:03:10.180 --> 0:03:14.500
<v Speaker 2>position last week, I will go ahead and say, on

0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:20.480
<v Speaker 2>the Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs. So one of

0:03:20.540 --> 0:03:24.210
<v Speaker 2>the things... is that I love the Grizzlies and I

0:03:24.230 --> 0:03:26.410
<v Speaker 2>love watching them and they're so fun and they're so

0:03:26.470 --> 0:03:29.329
<v Speaker 2>cool and they're the coolest kids in all of the town.

0:03:29.750 --> 0:03:33.210
<v Speaker 2>Unfortunately for me, my model says like, yeah, they're going

0:03:33.230 --> 0:03:36.270
<v Speaker 2>to have a really easy schedule until about Christmas and

0:03:36.310 --> 0:03:39.290
<v Speaker 2>then things get bleak and their schedule gets much, much harder.

0:03:40.010 --> 0:03:42.980
<v Speaker 2>And so I think that they're in a range of,

0:03:43.020 --> 0:03:47.260
<v Speaker 2>I think it's like Dallas and Portland and Memphis. I

0:03:47.280 --> 0:03:48.960
<v Speaker 2>think all those three, I think those three teams have

0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:52.520
<v Speaker 2>a very legitimate chance of making the post-season. but Memphis

0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:55.080
<v Speaker 2>is back half of schedule is tougher than I think

0:03:55.100 --> 0:03:57.720
<v Speaker 2>Dallas is. I have Dallas around 500 at Christmas and

0:03:57.740 --> 0:03:59.340
<v Speaker 2>then it gets a little bit easier on the back half.

0:04:00.260 --> 0:04:03.090
<v Speaker 2>I've watched a lot of Maverick stuff over the last

0:04:03.190 --> 0:04:07.070
<v Speaker 2>week and just, I'm really impressed with their offense. So

0:04:08.210 --> 0:04:12.570
<v Speaker 2>dusty may, I'm always very skeptical and very reluctant when

0:04:12.590 --> 0:04:15.510
<v Speaker 2>it comes to college coaches. I've seen them come in

0:04:15.570 --> 0:04:17.590
<v Speaker 2>and just not know what the fuck they're doing. I've

0:04:17.610 --> 0:04:19.350
<v Speaker 2>seen them come in and be like very confused of

0:04:19.370 --> 0:04:22.250
<v Speaker 2>the fact that the the men just don't listen to

0:04:22.300 --> 0:04:25.219
<v Speaker 2>them because they make more money than them. And then

0:04:25.260 --> 0:04:26.880
<v Speaker 2>I've seen like Billy Donovan who came in and like

0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.220
<v Speaker 2>respected everybody and did a really good job. And Donovan

0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:32.060
<v Speaker 2>was honestly a really great coach for OKC and had

0:04:32.100 --> 0:04:33.990
<v Speaker 2>not been for Clay Thompson in game six, he probably

0:04:34.020 --> 0:04:37.010
<v Speaker 2>wins the title. So it's hit or miss. So with

0:04:37.029 --> 0:04:39.130
<v Speaker 2>Dusty May, I was kind of like, yeah, I don't know.

0:04:39.270 --> 0:04:40.630
<v Speaker 2>I don't know. I don't know what to expect. And

0:04:40.650 --> 0:04:41.830
<v Speaker 2>it's one of the reasons why I said I was

0:04:41.890 --> 0:04:44.850
<v Speaker 2>really wide on the Mavericks position of I had their

0:04:44.950 --> 0:04:47.660
<v Speaker 2>floor like 22 and had their ceiling at like 47

0:04:47.660 --> 0:04:49.860
<v Speaker 2>because I was just like, I don't know what to expect.

0:04:51.070 --> 0:04:53.730
<v Speaker 2>Not necessarily the roster, but how the coach is going

0:04:53.750 --> 0:04:56.979
<v Speaker 2>to make it work. May has installed an offense that

0:04:57.480 --> 0:04:59.900
<v Speaker 2>is not only getting Cooper Flagg into such good possessions,

0:04:59.920 --> 0:05:05.020
<v Speaker 2>getting him constantly catches on the move so that Cooper

0:05:05.060 --> 0:05:08.140
<v Speaker 2>doesn't have to face a defense loaded up on him.

0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:11.760
<v Speaker 2>He is constantly getting the ball in positions where the

0:05:11.810 --> 0:05:15.050
<v Speaker 2>defense is already trailing him and basically in panic mode.

0:05:15.390 --> 0:05:18.100
<v Speaker 2>Cooper's obviously taken a step and continues to evolve towards

0:05:18.120 --> 0:05:22.440
<v Speaker 2>what's probably going to be an MVP quality player. But

0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:27.520
<v Speaker 2>they're also using like, it's like nerd stuff out the wazoo. Hey,

0:05:27.540 --> 0:05:29.650
<v Speaker 2>here's an Iverson cut. Hey, here's a back cut. Hey,

0:05:29.690 --> 0:05:33.250
<v Speaker 2>here's split action. They were like the most nerdy of

0:05:33.290 --> 0:05:35.770
<v Speaker 2>the nerd stuff where it's like, Ooh, they ran a

0:05:35.810 --> 0:05:38.010
<v Speaker 2>split action. And when they cleared, they ran a stampede

0:05:38.029 --> 0:05:40.300
<v Speaker 2>with Marcus Sasser. It's the kind of nerd shit that

0:05:40.330 --> 0:05:43.470
<v Speaker 2>makes me just get all excited. the roster is really

0:05:43.529 --> 0:05:45.710
<v Speaker 2>talented they are really sound and they are just like

0:05:45.870 --> 0:05:48.529
<v Speaker 2>they the biggest thing is that he has built an

0:05:48.670 --> 0:05:51.370
<v Speaker 2>offense that takes advantage of his team's strengths and not

0:05:51.410 --> 0:05:54.070
<v Speaker 2>all coaches do that so i like them enough to

0:05:54.110 --> 0:05:55.970
<v Speaker 2>go ahead and i went ahead and bet them they

0:05:56.010 --> 0:05:59.250
<v Speaker 2>are currently plus 190 to make the nba playoffs that

0:05:59.310 --> 0:06:01.670
<v Speaker 2>was uh my i think my number was longer than

0:06:01.690 --> 0:06:02.990
<v Speaker 2>that i don't have it in front of me it

0:06:03.029 --> 0:06:03.670
<v Speaker 2>was longer.

0:06:03.529 --> 0:06:05.950
<v Speaker 3>Even earlier today so that's yeah it's coming.

0:06:05.790 --> 0:06:08.080
<v Speaker 2>Your way yeah they're getting steamed and that makes a

0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:10.169
<v Speaker 2>lot of sense now look kairi I don't really want

0:06:10.190 --> 0:06:13.830
<v Speaker 2>to talk about Kyrie's health. Man, this is the NBA.

0:06:13.930 --> 0:06:15.810
<v Speaker 2>I don't know who's going to be alive by the

0:06:15.850 --> 0:06:17.529
<v Speaker 2>end of the season. I have no idea. I have

0:06:17.570 --> 0:06:22.599
<v Speaker 2>no idea. No clue. But I do like their overall

0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.099
<v Speaker 2>construct enough to go ahead and get in on them.

0:06:24.660 --> 0:06:28.560
<v Speaker 2>Let's start with Joe DeLera. And Joe, what's a position

0:06:28.600 --> 0:06:30.940
<v Speaker 2>that you've kind of spotted as far as at least

0:06:31.050 --> 0:06:33.690
<v Speaker 2>being interested in talking about from a playoff positioning?

0:06:34.390 --> 0:06:34.550
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:06:34.630 --> 0:06:38.450
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I like Dallas too. I'm super high on

0:06:38.470 --> 0:06:41.740
<v Speaker 1>Cooper flag. And I've talked about that kind of in

0:06:41.750 --> 0:06:43.720
<v Speaker 1>the off season too. And I think some of the

0:06:43.740 --> 0:06:46.060
<v Speaker 1>other pivots that you could take for this play too,

0:06:46.100 --> 0:06:49.679
<v Speaker 1>like Dallas is plus like 145 to win 40 games,

0:06:50.020 --> 0:06:53.419
<v Speaker 1>plus 440 to win 45 regular season games. That might

0:06:53.460 --> 0:06:55.760
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit tough, but I think depending on

0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.560
<v Speaker 1>the way the market moves for make miss the playoffs,

0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:01.920
<v Speaker 1>I think that Plus 145 for 40 plus regular season wins,

0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:04.580
<v Speaker 1>probably like a decent pivot on that point. Or, you know,

0:07:04.600 --> 0:07:06.080
<v Speaker 1>you kind of supplement it in both ways.

0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:06.800
<v Speaker 2>So I like that.

0:07:07.900 --> 0:07:12.250
<v Speaker 1>I think this I don't know, like this Orlando match

0:07:12.290 --> 0:07:14.630
<v Speaker 1>team is awful. I think like I just I keep

0:07:14.870 --> 0:07:17.730
<v Speaker 1>feel like I'm getting fooled by them in the offseason,

0:07:17.790 --> 0:07:19.750
<v Speaker 1>like every year. And I'm like, they should be good.

0:07:19.770 --> 0:07:23.450
<v Speaker 1>They're going to be talented. They're coached differently, yada, yada, yada.

0:07:23.990 --> 0:07:27.490
<v Speaker 1>And then they just like they just look bad. I

0:07:27.530 --> 0:07:29.690
<v Speaker 1>don't know how else to describe it. I just am

0:07:29.730 --> 0:07:32.750
<v Speaker 1>disappointed with them, I feel like, all the time. So

0:07:33.170 --> 0:07:35.880
<v Speaker 1>looking at Orlando, and when you kind of look at

0:07:35.940 --> 0:07:39.520
<v Speaker 1>how good I think the Eastern Conference is, it sets

0:07:39.540 --> 0:07:40.900
<v Speaker 1>you up to be in a little bit of an

0:07:40.940 --> 0:07:43.820
<v Speaker 1>interesting scenario because for them to miss the playoffs is

0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:48.030
<v Speaker 1>actually a little bit... like worse priced than for them

0:07:48.050 --> 0:07:50.030
<v Speaker 1>to even be in the play. They're minus one 15

0:07:50.030 --> 0:07:52.570
<v Speaker 1>to be in the play. And they're minus one 25

0:07:52.570 --> 0:07:56.130
<v Speaker 1>to miss the playoffs entirely. And I don't know. Cause

0:07:56.150 --> 0:07:58.670
<v Speaker 1>I think Paolo, I think Paolo is actually a really good,

0:07:58.950 --> 0:08:02.610
<v Speaker 1>like single game playoff type of player. Like he's somebody

0:08:02.650 --> 0:08:05.420
<v Speaker 1>that I would want on my team. If I said like,

0:08:05.540 --> 0:08:06.920
<v Speaker 1>you got to go win a game in the play

0:08:06.950 --> 0:08:09.420
<v Speaker 1>in tournament because he can just take over a game

0:08:09.460 --> 0:08:14.340
<v Speaker 1>and go absolutely crazy. I just, I have no faith

0:08:14.420 --> 0:08:17.000
<v Speaker 1>in them. I just have no faith in them at all.

0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:19.660
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think they're going to be good enough

0:08:19.800 --> 0:08:22.900
<v Speaker 1>in the regular season, especially with the injuries they already have.

0:08:23.810 --> 0:08:26.250
<v Speaker 1>They were an injured team last year. They're getting some

0:08:26.270 --> 0:08:29.510
<v Speaker 1>of these issues. And I know that injuries are not always.

0:08:31.110 --> 0:08:32.070
<v Speaker 3>Indicative.

0:08:32.110 --> 0:08:34.610
<v Speaker 1>They don't transfer year after year after year, except for

0:08:35.010 --> 0:08:38.770
<v Speaker 1>certain players are just often injured. But what we've seen

0:08:38.809 --> 0:08:41.050
<v Speaker 1>from Orlando is just like the whole team just can't

0:08:41.090 --> 0:08:43.030
<v Speaker 1>stay healthy. And it's like over and over and over

0:08:43.070 --> 0:08:46.380
<v Speaker 1>and over again. So I have concerns with them. And

0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:49.219
<v Speaker 1>I think that, you know, at like minus 125 to

0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.099
<v Speaker 1>just miss the playoffs, I have a bunch of outs.

0:08:52.140 --> 0:08:54.600
<v Speaker 1>They can miss the play in entirely. They could lose

0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:58.620
<v Speaker 1>in the play in. I think the minus 125 for

0:08:58.660 --> 0:09:00.300
<v Speaker 1>them to miss the playoffs is where I would be

0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:03.060
<v Speaker 1>looking at. Sorry, Kravitz.

0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:08.510
<v Speaker 2>I don't think he'll take that personally. uh so let's

0:09:08.809 --> 0:09:12.790
<v Speaker 2>do the math on this okay so sixers celtics pistons

0:09:13.210 --> 0:09:17.209
<v Speaker 2>nicks raptors i think we can safely say cavaliers i

0:09:17.230 --> 0:09:19.410
<v Speaker 2>think we can safely say that's six there's your like

0:09:19.450 --> 0:09:21.530
<v Speaker 2>your big six now it comes into the seven and

0:09:21.610 --> 0:09:26.189
<v Speaker 2>eight um your next three are hawks minus 215 pacers

0:09:26.410 --> 0:09:30.530
<v Speaker 2>minus 115 magic plus 110 this is the make um

0:09:31.270 --> 0:09:32.960
<v Speaker 2>and then it drops off to the to the hornets

0:09:33.130 --> 0:09:35.160
<v Speaker 2>who yeah who are awful yeah who.

0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:39.730
<v Speaker 3>Are dead Who are we missing? I thought Hornets were 11th, basically.

0:09:40.490 --> 0:09:43.410
<v Speaker 3>We missed one team there. Oh, the Wizards? Yeah, the

0:09:43.429 --> 0:09:44.670
<v Speaker 3>Wizards are the one.

0:09:46.230 --> 0:09:54.360
<v Speaker 2>I'm going over it again. Sixers, Celtics, Pistons, Knicks, Raptors, Cavs.

0:09:54.860 --> 0:09:56.440
<v Speaker 3>That's the sixth.

0:09:56.860 --> 0:09:59.140
<v Speaker 2>That's the sixth. And then.

0:10:00.760 --> 0:10:06.100
<v Speaker 3>Hawks, Pacers, Magic. Oh, Heat. We didn't say Heat.

0:10:06.340 --> 0:10:07.260
<v Speaker 2>Wizards. Yeah.

0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:09.429
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Because they also kind of suck.

0:10:09.490 --> 0:10:11.250
<v Speaker 2>They're playing right now. So they're not on my draft.

0:10:11.290 --> 0:10:11.709
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:10:11.830 --> 0:10:12.070
<v Speaker 3>Okay.

0:10:12.110 --> 0:10:12.930
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. That's why.

0:10:13.170 --> 0:10:13.589
<v Speaker 3>That's why.

0:10:13.610 --> 0:10:13.990
<v Speaker 2>That's why.

0:10:14.710 --> 0:10:16.650
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, like, I think, I think Miami will

0:10:16.690 --> 0:10:20.710
<v Speaker 1>figure it out. Like they're, You're too good. You have Giannis.

0:10:21.010 --> 0:10:24.150
<v Speaker 2>It doesn't matter. The good news for them is the

0:10:24.170 --> 0:10:28.030
<v Speaker 2>season's too long. Eventually, it will be like, okay. They

0:10:28.110 --> 0:10:29.349
<v Speaker 2>rattle into competency.

0:10:29.970 --> 0:10:33.360
<v Speaker 1>The thing is, even if they aren't really competent, as

0:10:33.380 --> 0:10:35.400
<v Speaker 1>long as they're in the play-in, I'm going to bet

0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:37.939
<v Speaker 1>them against any team that they go to in the

0:10:37.980 --> 0:10:41.840
<v Speaker 1>play-in because you have Giannis. Giannis will score 50 points

0:10:41.920 --> 0:10:44.560
<v Speaker 1>if he has to. They still might lose, but I

0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:46.440
<v Speaker 1>feel okay about the bet.

0:10:47.730 --> 0:10:49.670
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't mind the magic. I am just kind

0:10:49.690 --> 0:10:51.290
<v Speaker 2>of reaching like, yeah, it's just never going to happen

0:10:51.309 --> 0:10:51.550
<v Speaker 2>for them.

0:10:53.320 --> 0:10:55.979
<v Speaker 1>I think it's more likely that somebody gets traded at

0:10:56.020 --> 0:10:59.140
<v Speaker 1>the deadline than them to make the playoffs at this point.

0:10:59.179 --> 0:11:02.300
<v Speaker 1>That's almost how I feel about it because I think

0:11:02.350 --> 0:11:04.750
<v Speaker 1>that when we've looked at this team over and over

0:11:04.770 --> 0:11:07.790
<v Speaker 1>and over again, Like the numbers sort of look good

0:11:08.130 --> 0:11:10.610
<v Speaker 1>when they all are playing together, but they just are

0:11:10.730 --> 0:11:13.450
<v Speaker 1>never playing together. And I don't know, like they're so

0:11:13.690 --> 0:11:16.630
<v Speaker 1>they're so sunk on the Bane stuff because they traded

0:11:16.740 --> 0:11:19.350
<v Speaker 1>so many assets for him. which I think is fine.

0:11:19.400 --> 0:11:22.410
<v Speaker 1>I think he would fit, honestly, a lot of teams,

0:11:22.490 --> 0:11:26.030
<v Speaker 1>and that would be a perfectly fine trade. But you

0:11:26.070 --> 0:11:29.969
<v Speaker 1>can survive it if you're contending. They're not contending. They're

0:11:29.990 --> 0:11:32.620
<v Speaker 1>not even close to really contending. I don't think I

0:11:32.650 --> 0:11:34.479
<v Speaker 1>would take them against any of these top teams in

0:11:34.500 --> 0:11:37.859
<v Speaker 1>the Eastern Conference. So I don't think it's crazy to say,

0:11:38.260 --> 0:11:40.579
<v Speaker 1>do they just blow it up? Do you just blow

0:11:40.620 --> 0:11:42.900
<v Speaker 1>it up and figure a team is going to trade

0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:47.990
<v Speaker 1>you a ton if you put any of Palo, Suggs,

0:11:48.520 --> 0:11:51.260
<v Speaker 1>or Franz on the trade block. Like I, I think

0:11:51.280 --> 0:11:54.250
<v Speaker 1>that a team would give a boatload for that just

0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:55.370
<v Speaker 1>depending on what the role is.

0:11:56.850 --> 0:11:59.850
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Um, I do think that they will hold on

0:11:59.870 --> 0:12:05.949
<v Speaker 2>and they will want to see what the team looks

0:12:06.010 --> 0:12:12.429
<v Speaker 2>like with Palo back. Like they'll just be like, we

0:12:12.470 --> 0:12:15.010
<v Speaker 2>have to see like we at least have to see.

0:12:14.910 --> 0:12:18.980
<v Speaker 3>It, but that's like they keep doing. Yeah, I know.

0:12:19.020 --> 0:12:22.119
<v Speaker 2>But here's the difference is that fans are always not

0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:25.320
<v Speaker 2>even like live and local fans, not even fans of

0:12:25.340 --> 0:12:27.460
<v Speaker 2>the team, just like us, just like people that follow

0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:29.920
<v Speaker 2>the NBA are always like, can you guys just give

0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:31.760
<v Speaker 2>it up and move on already? Like you're clearly never

0:12:31.780 --> 0:12:34.200
<v Speaker 2>going to get it together. Can you just like get

0:12:34.300 --> 0:12:38.449
<v Speaker 2>on with it? And the teams are like, no, I

0:12:38.470 --> 0:12:41.270
<v Speaker 2>lose my job if that happens. So I will continue

0:12:41.290 --> 0:12:42.690
<v Speaker 2>to be like if we could just get healthy.

0:12:43.230 --> 0:12:45.270
<v Speaker 3>So the crazy thing is how much their defense has

0:12:45.309 --> 0:12:48.580
<v Speaker 3>fallen off. Like their defense was their calling card for years.

0:12:48.860 --> 0:12:49.170
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:12:49.500 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 3>And they brought in Sean Sweeney, who's like the defensive guy,

0:12:52.940 --> 0:12:56.120
<v Speaker 3>their bottom seven on offense and defense. It's like, I,

0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.800
<v Speaker 3>something does seem really broken and they just tried the

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:03.699
<v Speaker 3>new coach. I I'm with you, John, thinking that, that

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.540
<v Speaker 3>there could be a mid season trade here. And I

0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:07.880
<v Speaker 3>don't actually know if that's like, bad thing that actually

0:13:07.940 --> 0:13:10.540
<v Speaker 3>like might help there it might help maybe if it's

0:13:10.679 --> 0:13:13.179
<v Speaker 3>like for a picks package maybe not but i kind

0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:16.540
<v Speaker 3>of think that because they're in this like they've still

0:13:16.570 --> 0:13:18.910
<v Speaker 3>got bait like they've got all this money account for

0:13:18.970 --> 0:13:20.989
<v Speaker 3>maybe it's like a we don't see it often but

0:13:21.010 --> 0:13:23.630
<v Speaker 3>like a like a challenge trade of just like you

0:13:23.650 --> 0:13:26.370
<v Speaker 3>know i'm bad at fake trades pal for some you

0:13:26.410 --> 0:13:30.430
<v Speaker 3>know star whatever level you you assigned to palo there

0:13:30.830 --> 0:13:33.250
<v Speaker 3>that that's just like we need to just mix things

0:13:33.370 --> 0:13:35.130
<v Speaker 3>up and and i'm i'm with you matt and that

0:13:35.150 --> 0:13:38.900
<v Speaker 3>teams almost never think that way But, man, it's just been–

0:13:39.190 --> 0:13:41.180
<v Speaker 3>I just don't know how many straight years you can

0:13:41.660 --> 0:13:45.020
<v Speaker 3>do that before you kind of are living the definition

0:13:45.059 --> 0:13:45.679
<v Speaker 3>of insanity.

0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:50.060
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. The answer is forever because people like getting paid.

0:13:50.620 --> 0:13:51.260
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:13:51.600 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 2>And, you know, even beyond that, I think it's just

0:13:54.059 --> 0:13:55.660
<v Speaker 2>really hard to be like, look, we really believed in

0:13:55.710 --> 0:13:58.350
<v Speaker 2>this team. Like, we think Jalen Suggs is a really

0:13:58.450 --> 0:14:01.150
<v Speaker 2>great point guard that can defend and he makes many

0:14:01.190 --> 0:14:03.570
<v Speaker 2>plays for us. And we drafted Powell because we know

0:14:03.590 --> 0:14:04.709
<v Speaker 2>what he's capable of and look what he does in

0:14:04.730 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 2>the playoffs. Yeah. And Franz is playing great. And Tristan's

0:14:08.900 --> 0:14:11.020
<v Speaker 2>shooting the lights out. And Black's playing so well.

0:14:11.780 --> 0:14:14.080
<v Speaker 1>And you're going to be 2-6.

0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:16.120
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 2>And you're going to have been blown out by the

0:14:18.140 --> 0:14:18.730
<v Speaker 2>Phoenix Suns.

0:14:19.710 --> 0:14:19.950
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:14:20.750 --> 0:14:24.530
<v Speaker 2>That's a yikes. That's a big yikes given where they're at.

0:14:25.310 --> 0:14:30.250
<v Speaker 3>Well, that transitions well to my other one because Phoenix

0:14:30.270 --> 0:14:32.430
<v Speaker 3>Suns to miss the playoffs. Now, they look good tonight.

0:14:33.350 --> 0:14:35.230
<v Speaker 3>And I'll actually be curious what this number pops back

0:14:35.450 --> 0:14:38.710
<v Speaker 3>up as, but I am pretty out on this team.

0:14:38.790 --> 0:14:40.930
<v Speaker 3>Obviously probably having their best game of the night of

0:14:40.970 --> 0:14:43.580
<v Speaker 3>the season tonight. They have had a tough schedule to

0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:47.840
<v Speaker 3>start the season. And when you look at the West that,

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:49.300
<v Speaker 3>you know, before the season, it was like kind of

0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 3>the big six, we could be the same in the

0:14:50.660 --> 0:14:52.940
<v Speaker 3>West as, as in the East. It's OKC San Antonio,

0:14:53.020 --> 0:14:58.750
<v Speaker 3>it's Houston, Minnesota, it's LA and it's Denver. But, And

0:14:59.130 --> 0:15:01.490
<v Speaker 3>I'd be curious your take on this, Matt. I think Portland,

0:15:01.510 --> 0:15:03.270
<v Speaker 3>you had them kind of in the tier with like

0:15:03.650 --> 0:15:08.790
<v Speaker 3>Dallas and Memphis. To me, I'm very impressed with Portland

0:15:08.810 --> 0:15:12.630
<v Speaker 3>so far and Mike Inori and what their offense is doing.

0:15:12.790 --> 0:15:14.670
<v Speaker 3>I think they're in like a tier of their own

0:15:14.750 --> 0:15:17.620
<v Speaker 3>in seventh. And then maybe even like, you know, in

0:15:17.630 --> 0:15:20.630
<v Speaker 3>the kind of that lower, if you're lower on the Lakers,

0:15:20.670 --> 0:15:24.660
<v Speaker 3>kind of in that tier, which really only leaves one spot.

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:29.530
<v Speaker 3>And you've got some, I like Dallas as well. Golden State,

0:15:29.770 --> 0:15:33.740
<v Speaker 3>if Yaxel can kind of float them when Curry is injured,

0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:35.580
<v Speaker 3>they'll be there at the end of the year and

0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 3>they'll have Jimmy Butler at that point. um and then

0:15:38.480 --> 0:15:40.760
<v Speaker 3>memphis i if we're going with one of the like

0:15:40.970 --> 0:15:43.970
<v Speaker 3>teams in in that range i would rather memphis than

0:15:44.050 --> 0:15:46.989
<v Speaker 3>phoenix even though phoenix was there last year and did

0:15:47.030 --> 0:15:49.150
<v Speaker 3>get to the postseason but a lot of what made

0:15:49.190 --> 0:15:51.390
<v Speaker 3>that team special it just doesn't seem there this year

0:15:51.430 --> 0:15:53.500
<v Speaker 3>now you're laying uh you're probably gonna lay like a

0:15:53.510 --> 0:15:56.400
<v Speaker 3>pretty juicy number here um so folks might not want

0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.420
<v Speaker 3>to do it or maybe you prefer doing a prediction

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:00.620
<v Speaker 3>market where you can cash it out or it's like

0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:03.830
<v Speaker 3>you know it's just it's it's easier to click like 75%

0:16:03.830 --> 0:16:07.210
<v Speaker 3>then minus 300. There's just something about those two numbers

0:16:07.250 --> 0:16:10.670
<v Speaker 3>that like, Oh, 70%. Yeah. That still seems like, you know,

0:16:10.730 --> 0:16:12.730
<v Speaker 3>it's not like a minus 300, which I think people

0:16:12.770 --> 0:16:15.410
<v Speaker 3>don't like, but I think Phoenix suns to miss the

0:16:15.450 --> 0:16:19.510
<v Speaker 3>post season. The West, you know, I think the, the

0:16:19.550 --> 0:16:23.170
<v Speaker 3>reports of the West demise may have been slightly over-exaggerated

0:16:23.190 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 3>because there's, there's really only like one truly bad team

0:16:26.390 --> 0:16:29.770
<v Speaker 3>in the Kings there. And then, The rest of those

0:16:29.790 --> 0:16:31.730
<v Speaker 3>teams are kind of plucky. Who else would you have

0:16:31.750 --> 0:16:31.990
<v Speaker 3>in that team?

0:16:32.010 --> 0:16:33.830
<v Speaker 1>Klipper's kind of bad. Klipper's kind of bad.

0:16:34.150 --> 0:16:34.990
<v Speaker 3>Klipper's bad. That's fair.

0:16:35.090 --> 0:16:36.670
<v Speaker 2>I wasn't even going to say them. I was going

0:16:36.690 --> 0:16:37.390
<v Speaker 2>to say Utah.

0:16:38.500 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 1>Oh, yeah.

0:16:39.980 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 3>I want to see them with Nurkic back. I want

0:16:41.980 --> 0:16:44.280
<v Speaker 3>to see when Nurkic is back because he's weirdly important

0:16:44.300 --> 0:16:45.900
<v Speaker 3>to them. But that is a fair shout because they

0:16:45.940 --> 0:16:47.580
<v Speaker 3>have looked truly terrible.

0:16:48.400 --> 0:16:52.610
<v Speaker 2>I do like– I am grateful. I've only got so

0:16:52.640 --> 0:16:54.330
<v Speaker 2>many spots on the screen. When you said that you

0:16:54.350 --> 0:16:56.690
<v Speaker 2>want to take a Phoenix Suns to miss the playoffs

0:16:56.750 --> 0:17:00.510
<v Speaker 2>minus 300– I've seen Michael fiddle, which is a pure

0:17:00.530 --> 0:17:05.800
<v Speaker 2>and a puff of smoke. Paying more than my 200.

0:17:05.800 --> 0:17:06.140
<v Speaker 3>I'm here.

0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:09.280
<v Speaker 1>I don't hate the idea. If you can, this is

0:17:09.320 --> 0:17:11.400
<v Speaker 1>one of those, like if you can parlay it with

0:17:12.060 --> 0:17:17.119
<v Speaker 1>other things to happen, I think the correlation is worth it.

0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:19.139
<v Speaker 1>Even if you're taking like a little bit of extra risk,

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:22.120
<v Speaker 1>but like if you could parlay it with like Mavericks

0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:25.060
<v Speaker 1>to make the playoffs, I don't think that that's absurd.

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:29.660
<v Speaker 1>Or honestly, that's probably who I would want. Like Mavericks in,

0:17:29.960 --> 0:17:34.070
<v Speaker 1>Phoenix out, I think would work numbers-wise.

0:17:34.090 --> 0:17:36.869
<v Speaker 3>I'm curious, you guys, if the play-in tournament ends up

0:17:36.890 --> 0:17:42.590
<v Speaker 3>being Portland, Golden State, Dallas, and Memphis, who's the best

0:17:42.670 --> 0:17:44.689
<v Speaker 3>player on those four teams?

0:17:46.650 --> 0:17:48.330
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be Curry.

0:17:48.350 --> 0:17:49.730
<v Speaker 3>No, it's Ty Jerome.

0:17:49.850 --> 0:17:50.650
<v Speaker 2>I'm not even kidding.

0:17:51.250 --> 0:17:55.990
<v Speaker 3>I'm not kidding. You would tie Jerome over Steph and

0:17:56.010 --> 0:17:56.649
<v Speaker 3>Cooper flag.

0:17:56.830 --> 0:17:58.230
<v Speaker 2>I'll take, I'll take tie Jerome.

0:17:58.910 --> 0:17:59.359
<v Speaker 3>I love it.

0:17:59.780 --> 0:18:02.060
<v Speaker 1>Matt is wearing a Grizzlies hat right now for all

0:18:02.080 --> 0:18:02.899
<v Speaker 1>of you. I'm serious.

0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:09.290
<v Speaker 3>I was, I'm, I love Ty Jerome more than almost

0:18:09.330 --> 0:18:10.970
<v Speaker 3>anything in the world. I am a little bit worried

0:18:11.109 --> 0:18:12.780
<v Speaker 3>about if we get a full season out of him

0:18:12.859 --> 0:18:15.800
<v Speaker 3>with the usage rate that he's getting in Memphis at

0:18:15.859 --> 0:18:20.000
<v Speaker 3>his size. I absolutely fucking love that dude. I am

0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:23.000
<v Speaker 3>a little nervous. I'm so high on Memphis. I'm so

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:25.800
<v Speaker 3>high on Ty Jerome. I'm a little bit nervous. I

0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:28.540
<v Speaker 3>want them to ramp down the usage just a little bit.

0:18:28.580 --> 0:18:30.609
<v Speaker 3>I want to keep my baby safe all season.

0:18:31.109 --> 0:18:34.450
<v Speaker 2>So I'm going to push back on one thing here, Jim.

0:18:36.290 --> 0:18:38.920
<v Speaker 2>So I said the two teams that I've been most

0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:41.159
<v Speaker 2>impressed with are Portland and Dallas.

0:18:42.980 --> 0:18:43.590
<v Speaker 3>And I agree with you.

0:18:43.609 --> 0:18:45.409
<v Speaker 2>Mike Inouye, I think, has done a phenomenal job. I

0:18:45.450 --> 0:18:47.389
<v Speaker 2>saw them up close and personal, and they beat the Nuggets,

0:18:48.390 --> 0:18:53.889
<v Speaker 2>came from behind. Donovan Klingin is so good. He is

0:18:53.930 --> 0:18:56.149
<v Speaker 2>the type of player where it's like, you have to

0:18:56.230 --> 0:18:59.210
<v Speaker 2>really watch basketball, and I don't claim to be a

0:18:59.230 --> 0:19:03.090
<v Speaker 2>ball knower, but from how I watch the games at least,

0:19:03.750 --> 0:19:06.909
<v Speaker 2>he makes such a massive difference. There's just all these

0:19:06.950 --> 0:19:10.230
<v Speaker 2>little things that he does. He set a Gortat screen.

0:19:10.810 --> 0:19:13.430
<v Speaker 2>It's a really simple thing. He just set a Gortat

0:19:13.450 --> 0:19:20.150
<v Speaker 2>screen the other night for Denny and just obliterated Jokic

0:19:20.790 --> 0:19:21.710
<v Speaker 2>and the help defender.

0:19:23.130 --> 0:19:23.850
<v Speaker 3>He's huge.

0:19:24.050 --> 0:19:28.889
<v Speaker 2>He's nimble. He understands court positioning. And he sets great screens.

0:19:29.670 --> 0:19:34.930
<v Speaker 2>Donovan Klingon's amazing. I say all this to say Jim,

0:19:35.050 --> 0:19:39.320
<v Speaker 2>this is a betting podcast. Under what situation is this

0:19:40.580 --> 0:19:45.170
<v Speaker 2>not a great position to sell high on Portland? Like

0:19:45.420 --> 0:19:52.720
<v Speaker 2>they are right now, Portland is minus 700 at DraftKings

0:19:52.770 --> 0:19:54.010
<v Speaker 2>to make the playoffs.

0:19:54.750 --> 0:19:56.790
<v Speaker 3>What is the, what's the flip? Is it like plus

0:19:56.790 --> 0:19:57.810
<v Speaker 3>320 or something?

0:19:58.290 --> 0:20:01.699
<v Speaker 2>No, it's it's five to one for them to miss. Yeah.

0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:03.830
<v Speaker 3>I mean, that isn't bad. You are right about that.

0:20:03.850 --> 0:20:06.150
<v Speaker 3>That is a good sell high right there, especially because

0:20:06.210 --> 0:20:08.010
<v Speaker 3>I mean, the injury bug is already, I mean, it's

0:20:08.030 --> 0:20:10.170
<v Speaker 3>hitting ever. Like you said, we also weren't high on them.

0:20:10.670 --> 0:20:12.750
<v Speaker 3>We were, I was, I was out actively out on

0:20:12.790 --> 0:20:15.970
<v Speaker 3>them and like, they're playing like Chris young blood and like,

0:20:16.010 --> 0:20:21.180
<v Speaker 3>like it's getting pretty thin on the wings for them already. Um, it, yeah,

0:20:21.220 --> 0:20:23.060
<v Speaker 3>that's a fair shout. It's a good job.

0:20:24.869 --> 0:20:26.530
<v Speaker 1>I thought Denny was going to come back to earth

0:20:26.550 --> 0:20:29.720
<v Speaker 1>a little bit and he just looks awesome again. Like

0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:31.960
<v Speaker 1>I think he just might just be that good. Like he's,

0:20:32.020 --> 0:20:34.100
<v Speaker 1>that just might be what he is. Like it's just

0:20:34.140 --> 0:20:37.840
<v Speaker 1>this elite like engine that is getting to the rim.

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:40.560
<v Speaker 1>Like I was actually a little concerned with some of

0:20:40.580 --> 0:20:44.239
<v Speaker 1>the rule changes for Denny because he's so like, he

0:20:44.280 --> 0:20:47.100
<v Speaker 1>draws so much contact that like they were going to

0:20:47.240 --> 0:20:49.060
<v Speaker 1>either not call some of it or he's going to

0:20:49.100 --> 0:20:51.360
<v Speaker 1>get some offensive fouls for like the little like kind

0:20:51.400 --> 0:20:54.070
<v Speaker 1>of shoves and stuff like that. The dude is just

0:20:54.430 --> 0:20:56.950
<v Speaker 1>a tank. He gets to the rim and he just

0:20:56.970 --> 0:21:03.020
<v Speaker 1>continues to generate contact. It feels sustainable, which I don't know.

0:21:03.040 --> 0:21:04.780
<v Speaker 1>I didn't really feel that way about him last year.

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think he's taken real leaps and he's been phenomenal.

0:21:10.820 --> 0:21:13.020
<v Speaker 2>Let's put this in number terms because I think this

0:21:13.080 --> 0:21:14.840
<v Speaker 2>is important. We got about 4.5% vague on this. The

0:21:14.859 --> 0:21:24.200
<v Speaker 2>implied is 88% to make. about 17% to miss.

0:21:26.160 --> 0:21:27.540
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, you want to be on the miss side of that.

0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 1>You want to be on the miss.

0:21:28.619 --> 0:21:32.400
<v Speaker 2>See, this is what I love about talking betting. We're

0:21:32.420 --> 0:21:35.850
<v Speaker 2>all like, man, Portland's awesome. Isn't Portland great? Portland's so good.

0:21:36.010 --> 0:21:38.229
<v Speaker 2>I think they're a step above. And then you look

0:21:38.250 --> 0:21:40.110
<v Speaker 2>at the numbers and you're like, oh, there's a real

0:21:40.130 --> 0:21:42.450
<v Speaker 2>opportunity here to go the other way.

0:21:42.910 --> 0:21:44.689
<v Speaker 3>And if they do drop in, they don't even have

0:21:44.710 --> 0:21:46.629
<v Speaker 3>to drop. I think we would all say they're a

0:21:46.650 --> 0:21:50.020
<v Speaker 3>seventh best team in the West. So they're in that play-in.

0:21:51.140 --> 0:21:53.470
<v Speaker 3>like we just said how good Denny is, but like

0:21:53.950 --> 0:21:55.730
<v Speaker 3>we would take Steph over him. We take a flag

0:21:55.750 --> 0:21:57.750
<v Speaker 3>over him. I'd probably take Kyrie over him in like

0:21:57.810 --> 0:22:01.909
<v Speaker 3>a one game, you know, playing type scenario. Matt would

0:22:01.950 --> 0:22:06.130
<v Speaker 3>take Ty Jerome over him. Like even, even with him

0:22:06.210 --> 0:22:08.450
<v Speaker 3>having played so great, he would not be the best

0:22:08.470 --> 0:22:10.619
<v Speaker 3>player in that West play in by a mile.

0:22:11.100 --> 0:22:15.240
<v Speaker 1>There's a lot of like weird scenarios too, because like Minnesota,

0:22:15.300 --> 0:22:19.550
<v Speaker 1>obviously ants hurt right now. uh denver just has kind

0:22:19.570 --> 0:22:22.870
<v Speaker 1>of looked like crap like honestly like they haven't looked

0:22:22.910 --> 0:22:25.750
<v Speaker 1>great but like if you get like imagine if denver's

0:22:25.780 --> 0:22:28.140
<v Speaker 1>in the play-in like you're gonna you're not gonna bet

0:22:28.160 --> 0:22:31.260
<v Speaker 1>against yokich like ever yeah like you're gonna bet you're

0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.100
<v Speaker 1>gonna bet on denver or if minnesota somehow is in

0:22:34.119 --> 0:22:37.120
<v Speaker 1>the play-in like you're gonna want every bit of ant

0:22:37.160 --> 0:22:40.530
<v Speaker 1>lamello in a play-in game so i i don't yeah

0:22:40.650 --> 0:22:44.070
<v Speaker 1>i think that there's a lot of scenarios where portland

0:22:45.580 --> 0:22:47.369
<v Speaker 1>is going to be a dog, I think in the

0:22:47.410 --> 0:22:49.890
<v Speaker 1>play-in if they like assuming they're there.

0:22:49.910 --> 0:22:50.750
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:22:51.150 --> 0:22:53.790
<v Speaker 2>And look, we're early to like, it's, you know, I'm

0:22:55.910 --> 0:22:56.310
<v Speaker 2>trying to think.

0:22:57.410 --> 0:22:57.610
<v Speaker 3>Yeah.

0:22:57.670 --> 0:22:59.619
<v Speaker 2>Hawks are a great example of this. If you tell this,

0:23:00.280 --> 0:23:01.939
<v Speaker 2>that the Hawks were not only going to make, we're

0:23:01.960 --> 0:23:05.460
<v Speaker 2>going to make the playoffs outright. Probably would have been

0:23:05.560 --> 0:23:08.119
<v Speaker 2>pretty skeptical. You know, some teams going to make it

0:23:08.140 --> 0:23:10.159
<v Speaker 2>that late run. So it's important to have kind of

0:23:10.180 --> 0:23:11.219
<v Speaker 2>these liquid positions.

0:23:11.330 --> 0:23:11.530
<v Speaker 3>Go ahead.

0:23:12.090 --> 0:23:14.490
<v Speaker 1>The one thing about Portland, I am kind of looking

0:23:14.550 --> 0:23:17.430
<v Speaker 1>at it now. Um, that's good for that. Like they're,

0:23:17.869 --> 0:23:21.550
<v Speaker 1>they're six and one, they're five and O on the road.

0:23:22.020 --> 0:23:24.280
<v Speaker 1>Like they've played, like the fact that they're played, played

0:23:24.320 --> 0:23:28.020
<v Speaker 1>in one, all five.

0:23:28.300 --> 0:23:31.240
<v Speaker 3>For, for basketball reference, they have played great basketball.

0:23:31.580 --> 0:23:33.670
<v Speaker 2>So this is like the, so this is, there's two

0:23:33.710 --> 0:23:35.810
<v Speaker 2>sides of this that you can go to. You can

0:23:35.830 --> 0:23:38.350
<v Speaker 2>go to, Oh, the numbers actually say this team isn't

0:23:38.390 --> 0:23:40.689
<v Speaker 2>that good. And so we should fade them. And then

0:23:40.710 --> 0:23:42.570
<v Speaker 2>there's the other fun side of this, which is the

0:23:42.609 --> 0:23:44.710
<v Speaker 2>numbers say that this is the best team in the league.

0:23:44.770 --> 0:23:47.110
<v Speaker 2>And we know that's not fucking true. So we should

0:23:47.130 --> 0:23:50.139
<v Speaker 2>probably fade them. Like you can go either way on

0:23:50.200 --> 0:23:53.459
<v Speaker 2>it where it's like either the resume doesn't stack up

0:23:53.500 --> 0:23:55.780
<v Speaker 2>statistically or it does. And you're like, but that can't

0:23:55.800 --> 0:23:57.869
<v Speaker 2>be right. Like, they can't be the best team in

0:23:57.890 --> 0:24:01.050
<v Speaker 2>the Western Conference. But, like, maybe they are. Maybe Portland's, like,

0:24:01.410 --> 0:24:03.530
<v Speaker 2>going to wind up as a one seed. Who knows?

0:24:03.690 --> 0:24:05.649
<v Speaker 2>They're playing great basketball. We'll see what happens. I do

0:24:05.670 --> 0:24:07.690
<v Speaker 2>think Portland may miss the playoffs. Probably will be added

0:24:07.710 --> 0:24:08.780
<v Speaker 2>in the action.

0:24:09.040 --> 0:24:11.219
<v Speaker 1>There's not enough Gortat screens in the world for them

0:24:11.240 --> 0:24:11.980
<v Speaker 1>to be the one seed.

0:24:13.280 --> 0:24:14.820
<v Speaker 3>It's true. It's true.

0:24:14.840 --> 0:24:17.240
<v Speaker 2>I do love a Gortat screen, though. All right. We're

0:24:17.260 --> 0:24:18.700
<v Speaker 2>going to get to some best bets. We'll do the

0:24:18.720 --> 0:24:22.030
<v Speaker 2>best bets for the Friday slate. starting with a three stars,

0:24:22.050 --> 0:24:24.990
<v Speaker 2>two stars, one stars. But first, this message from DraftKings.

0:24:25.230 --> 0:24:27.630
<v Speaker 2>Basketball season is here, and we've teamed up with DraftKings

0:24:27.650 --> 0:24:29.950
<v Speaker 2>to bring you a brand new offer. Whether you're following

0:24:29.970 --> 0:24:32.300
<v Speaker 2>the biggest matchups, keeping up with your favorite team, or

0:24:32.380 --> 0:24:35.580
<v Speaker 2>watching your favorite player all season long, DraftKings is now

0:24:35.640 --> 0:24:38.919
<v Speaker 2>available in all 50 states, from New York to California.

0:24:39.000 --> 0:24:41.200
<v Speaker 2>So no matter where you are, you can stay connected

0:24:41.260 --> 0:24:44.500
<v Speaker 2>to basketball. So if you're new to DraftKings, sign up

0:24:44.580 --> 0:24:47.060
<v Speaker 2>with code BUCKETSPOD, spend $ 5, and get $ 200 in total

0:24:47.080 --> 0:24:54.090
<v Speaker 2>rewards plus three months of NBA League Pass on DraftKings.

0:24:54.590 --> 0:24:59.399
<v Speaker 2>That's code BUCKETSPOD. Download the DraftKings Sports app today and

0:24:59.420 --> 0:25:04.159
<v Speaker 2>keep basketball at your fingertips all season long. DraftKings, the

0:25:04.220 --> 0:25:09.460
<v Speaker 2>crown is yours. Okay, let's get into some best bets

0:25:09.480 --> 0:25:13.429
<v Speaker 2>presented by DraftKings. Let's start with Joe DeLera. What's your

0:25:13.450 --> 0:25:14.730
<v Speaker 2>three-star play of the night, Joe?

0:25:15.530 --> 0:25:18.449
<v Speaker 1>I'm looking at A.J. Mitchell over 18.5 points against the

0:25:18.470 --> 0:25:23.550
<v Speaker 1>Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis has been relatively weak to pick and

0:25:23.590 --> 0:25:25.790
<v Speaker 1>roll ball handlers all season. They're playing at a top

0:25:25.790 --> 0:25:28.730
<v Speaker 1>10 pace. And I think that Shea obviously is going

0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:31.100
<v Speaker 1>to get a lot of the attention here. He's at

0:25:31.100 --> 0:25:34.220
<v Speaker 1>32.5 points for his line. So they obviously got to

0:25:34.480 --> 0:25:37.500
<v Speaker 1>generate offense somewhere else. And one of the players that

0:25:37.680 --> 0:25:39.500
<v Speaker 1>they've kind of been leaning on, obviously, is A.J.

0:25:39.540 --> 0:25:39.879
<v Speaker 3>Mitchell.

0:25:40.240 --> 0:25:42.119
<v Speaker 1>He had the one down game against the Rockets, but

0:25:42.180 --> 0:25:45.670
<v Speaker 1>two really solid games against the Cavs. Then before that,

0:25:45.970 --> 0:25:49.770
<v Speaker 1>good game against Dallas, good game against Phoenix. And that

0:25:49.790 --> 0:25:53.570
<v Speaker 1>was basically those games without Jalen Williams then. So we're

0:25:53.590 --> 0:25:57.629
<v Speaker 1>seeing him really perform pretty well without J-Dub, 21.6 points

0:25:57.710 --> 0:26:01.370
<v Speaker 1>per game in those five games without him. Additionally, you know,

0:26:01.490 --> 0:26:03.550
<v Speaker 1>he kind of is able to attack, get into the paint,

0:26:04.290 --> 0:26:05.990
<v Speaker 1>you know, get into the paint, get to the rim.

0:26:06.750 --> 0:26:09.130
<v Speaker 1>Those are all spots that obviously they have Zach Eadie

0:26:09.170 --> 0:26:11.930
<v Speaker 1>kind of clogging up the paint, but he doesn't need

0:26:11.950 --> 0:26:13.770
<v Speaker 1>to necessarily get all the way to the rack in

0:26:13.810 --> 0:26:16.090
<v Speaker 1>order to be successful. He's good in the paint. He's

0:26:16.130 --> 0:26:19.449
<v Speaker 1>good in like from like mid range or so. And

0:26:19.650 --> 0:26:22.810
<v Speaker 1>he's able to still generate contact and score, create for himself.

0:26:23.609 --> 0:26:26.679
<v Speaker 1>And we've seen some other guards similar to him perform

0:26:26.740 --> 0:26:30.220
<v Speaker 1>really well against Memphis. Like Nemhard played really well. Acuff

0:26:30.300 --> 0:26:33.220
<v Speaker 1>obviously went off for 38 points the other day. We've

0:26:33.260 --> 0:26:36.580
<v Speaker 1>seen Keontae George, Darren Peterson, and Acuff really actually went

0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:39.320
<v Speaker 1>off against them two games so far this season. So

0:26:39.640 --> 0:26:41.740
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a pretty good spot for him against

0:26:41.960 --> 0:26:43.119
<v Speaker 1>this Memphis Grizzlies team.

0:26:43.160 --> 0:26:43.900
<v Speaker 3>Plus the cup game.

0:26:43.920 --> 0:26:45.770
<v Speaker 1>I don't know how much it really matters for Oklahoma

0:26:45.790 --> 0:26:48.650
<v Speaker 1>City at this juncture in terms of caring about the cup.

0:26:49.080 --> 0:26:50.939
<v Speaker 1>but I do think that there is a little bit

0:26:50.960 --> 0:26:55.500
<v Speaker 1>of extra opportunity where maybe they still run that rotation

0:26:55.600 --> 0:26:58.500
<v Speaker 1>through the full thing. If it does go like sideways

0:26:58.580 --> 0:27:00.440
<v Speaker 1>one way or the other, just, you know, kind of

0:27:00.500 --> 0:27:04.270
<v Speaker 1>anticipating some of those potential point differential things that maybe

0:27:04.310 --> 0:27:06.910
<v Speaker 1>matter again. I don't know how much Oklahoma city cares

0:27:06.950 --> 0:27:09.689
<v Speaker 1>about that, especially with their injuries, but I do think

0:27:09.710 --> 0:27:12.250
<v Speaker 1>that there's still just like a little extra opportunity for

0:27:12.290 --> 0:27:16.410
<v Speaker 1>a more stable rotation than would typically be seen. And again, like,

0:27:16.990 --> 0:27:19.260
<v Speaker 1>Oklahoma city is just not as good right now. So

0:27:19.300 --> 0:27:21.020
<v Speaker 1>I think that these games where we'd look at it

0:27:21.100 --> 0:27:24.120
<v Speaker 1>traditionally and say, Oh yeah, like OKC is playing Memphis.

0:27:24.420 --> 0:27:27.020
<v Speaker 1>They should, they should roll. They're three, three and a

0:27:27.020 --> 0:27:28.869
<v Speaker 1>half point favorite. Like these games, I think are going

0:27:28.880 --> 0:27:30.690
<v Speaker 1>to be tight and they don't have a ton of

0:27:30.750 --> 0:27:32.909
<v Speaker 1>depth right now. So I think that you're just going

0:27:32.930 --> 0:27:34.990
<v Speaker 1>to see a lot more usage, a lot more opportunity

0:27:35.010 --> 0:27:36.090
<v Speaker 1>for guys like AJ Mitchell.

0:27:37.050 --> 0:27:38.790
<v Speaker 2>Makes sense. I like this one.

0:27:39.710 --> 0:27:40.350
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. Memphis.

0:27:41.970 --> 0:27:43.340
<v Speaker 2>Memphis has been interesting defensively.

0:27:43.359 --> 0:27:43.679
<v Speaker 4>They are.

0:27:44.930 --> 0:27:48.189
<v Speaker 2>Surprisingly like top half of the league, their 14th schedule adjusted,

0:27:49.190 --> 0:27:50.770
<v Speaker 2>which is not, not bad at all.

0:27:50.910 --> 0:27:51.550
<v Speaker 3>Okay.

0:27:51.570 --> 0:27:54.510
<v Speaker 2>See, like I love them earlier this week versus the

0:27:54.530 --> 0:27:56.639
<v Speaker 2>Cavaliers on the road. I should have played them at home.

0:27:57.200 --> 0:27:59.020
<v Speaker 2>And I was like, Nope, don't want to do the

0:27:59.100 --> 0:28:03.520
<v Speaker 2>two times in a week thing. 12th and offense for okay. See,

0:28:03.680 --> 0:28:05.980
<v Speaker 2>but I do think that you're right. They'll kind of

0:28:06.020 --> 0:28:07.340
<v Speaker 2>settle in, get used to this, but they are going

0:28:07.359 --> 0:28:09.640
<v Speaker 2>to have to lean on these guys a lot and

0:28:09.700 --> 0:28:11.869
<v Speaker 2>they definitely believe in AJ. So AJ over 17 and

0:28:11.950 --> 0:28:14.810
<v Speaker 2>a half points, 18 and a half points. in the market,

0:28:14.830 --> 0:28:17.190
<v Speaker 2>depending on where you get it, is Joe Dallara's three-star.

0:28:18.390 --> 0:28:20.330
<v Speaker 2>Let's do mine real quick. I'm going to go with

0:28:20.350 --> 0:28:23.530
<v Speaker 2>an under play here, and I'm going to go under

0:28:23.810 --> 0:28:31.510
<v Speaker 2>Bucks-Raptors under 230 and a half. I am surprised by

0:28:31.530 --> 0:28:34.090
<v Speaker 2>this line quite a bit, just from the perspective of

0:28:34.710 --> 0:28:39.150
<v Speaker 2>this line is essentially saying, look, the Bucks are terrible defensively.

0:28:40.130 --> 0:28:42.990
<v Speaker 2>The Bucks are awful defensively. I don't know if you

0:28:43.020 --> 0:28:47.050
<v Speaker 2>know this, but That's right. They are terrible defensively. However,

0:28:47.490 --> 0:28:51.050
<v Speaker 2>the biggest thing is that the Bucks are specifically bad

0:28:51.070 --> 0:28:53.730
<v Speaker 2>in two areas, pick and roll and giving up threes.

0:28:53.810 --> 0:28:58.030
<v Speaker 2>They give up an immense number of threes. The Raptors

0:28:58.150 --> 0:29:02.580
<v Speaker 2>can't make them. They don't have the shooting component. Like

0:29:02.640 --> 0:29:04.620
<v Speaker 2>even versus Denver last night, there was a reason I

0:29:04.640 --> 0:29:07.900
<v Speaker 2>didn't play any of the shooters versus versus Denver. And

0:29:07.920 --> 0:29:10.300
<v Speaker 2>I think one of them would have gone over. But

0:29:10.340 --> 0:29:13.490
<v Speaker 2>like in general, they just can't make them. The Raptors

0:29:13.530 --> 0:29:15.350
<v Speaker 2>don't have the personnel. RJ Barrett was taking a bunch

0:29:15.390 --> 0:29:17.780
<v Speaker 2>of threes last night. RJ is not a natural three-point shooter.

0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:18.710
<v Speaker 2>That's not his game.

0:29:18.780 --> 0:29:20.280
<v Speaker 3>Oh, we know. We know, Matt.

0:29:22.220 --> 0:29:26.180
<v Speaker 2>Quickly can't get downhill to be able to attack or

0:29:26.260 --> 0:29:28.680
<v Speaker 2>quickly has to get downhill to attack. Barnes isn't going

0:29:28.700 --> 0:29:30.840
<v Speaker 2>to do it. It's like Jacoby Walter and that's it.

0:29:31.140 --> 0:29:34.650
<v Speaker 2>You don't have enough shooting to punish this Bucs defense

0:29:34.710 --> 0:29:36.910
<v Speaker 2>that way. So it's not that I don't think the

0:29:36.950 --> 0:29:38.470
<v Speaker 2>Raptors are going to have their way with it. They are,

0:29:39.310 --> 0:29:40.570
<v Speaker 2>but they're not going to be able to generate enough

0:29:40.610 --> 0:29:43.570
<v Speaker 2>points to get over this number um based off of

0:29:43.670 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 2>last year's figures this is a composite of last year

0:29:46.970 --> 0:29:50.600
<v Speaker 2>and like a tiny fraction of this year's um i

0:29:50.630 --> 0:29:53.800
<v Speaker 2>went ahead i have this projected at 224.6 so but

0:29:53.820 --> 0:29:59.300
<v Speaker 2>i was like well okay I'm not using this year's

0:29:59.340 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 2>numbers because the sample is too small.

0:30:01.400 --> 0:30:01.620
<v Speaker 4>Right?

0:30:01.720 --> 0:30:04.100
<v Speaker 2>You don't want to use just, I don't want to

0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:05.960
<v Speaker 2>use seven games of data to build a total model.

0:30:05.980 --> 0:30:06.560
<v Speaker 3>Okay?

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:11.620
<v Speaker 2>But if I did, even with this year's numbers, I

0:30:11.660 --> 0:30:14.770
<v Speaker 2>wind up with 225. I'm still five points short. So

0:30:14.850 --> 0:30:17.010
<v Speaker 2>last year's, and the biggest thing here is that without

0:30:17.070 --> 0:30:20.390
<v Speaker 2>Kawhi Leonard, guess what the Raptors are? They're just last

0:30:20.430 --> 0:30:20.990
<v Speaker 2>year's team.

0:30:21.750 --> 0:30:22.100
<v Speaker 3>That's it.

0:30:22.650 --> 0:30:25.260
<v Speaker 2>There's no substantive change here. If it's like, oh, and

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:27.210
<v Speaker 2>they're missing Brandon Ingram, I don't care about That doesn't,

0:30:27.330 --> 0:30:29.110
<v Speaker 2>that doesn't move me positively or negatively.

0:30:29.530 --> 0:30:29.750
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:30:30.010 --> 0:30:31.630
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to actually be like, Ooh, actually. And,

0:30:31.810 --> 0:30:33.910
<v Speaker 2>and they don't even have Brandon Ingram. That's fine. That's okay.

0:30:34.970 --> 0:30:38.380
<v Speaker 2>But the bucks, like are the bucks substantively worse than

0:30:38.440 --> 0:30:42.040
<v Speaker 2>last year? Sands Giannis. Probably not. And it's like, Oh,

0:30:42.060 --> 0:30:43.740
<v Speaker 2>but they might have more offense. Cause they got hot

0:30:43.760 --> 0:30:46.860
<v Speaker 2>guys and, and hero. Not so far. They're 29th and offense.

0:30:47.570 --> 0:30:50.810
<v Speaker 2>And the Raptors defense is their quality. So I wind

0:30:50.850 --> 0:30:54.470
<v Speaker 2>up in on this one. I will say. My actual

0:30:54.550 --> 0:30:57.730
<v Speaker 2>best bet on this was going to be Lakers-Portland under 238.5,

0:30:57.730 --> 0:31:00.620
<v Speaker 2>but that got steamed into oblivion. I lost five points

0:31:00.660 --> 0:31:05.700
<v Speaker 2>of value. I bet it. Sorry, for best bet purposes.

0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:06.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that was crazy.

0:31:07.500 --> 0:31:09.870
<v Speaker 2>Five points of CLV on it. And I'm sure that's

0:31:09.880 --> 0:31:11.470
<v Speaker 2>going to matter since the last game was like 150

0:31:11.470 --> 0:31:13.310
<v Speaker 2>to 140. So I'm sure I'll just be able to

0:31:13.330 --> 0:31:20.880
<v Speaker 2>enjoy this. But still that, that was my actual best bet.

0:31:20.960 --> 0:31:23.140
<v Speaker 2>I apologize if you, if I was, I was so

0:31:23.180 --> 0:31:25.560
<v Speaker 2>excited to give you guys Portland Lakers had built an

0:31:25.640 --> 0:31:27.780
<v Speaker 2>entire complex argument of why that was going to go

0:31:27.840 --> 0:31:29.620
<v Speaker 2>under and the line moved too much. So we can't

0:31:29.640 --> 0:31:31.260
<v Speaker 2>get that, but Bucks Raptors under two 30 and a

0:31:31.280 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 2>half is my three star. I do like it quite

0:31:32.720 --> 0:31:36.370
<v Speaker 2>a bit for Friday night, Jim Turvey, your three-star bet.

0:31:37.470 --> 0:31:40.370
<v Speaker 3>James Harden over 22 and a half points plus rebound.

0:31:40.410 --> 0:31:43.030
<v Speaker 3>So right now, Jared Allen and Peyton Watson are both

0:31:43.050 --> 0:31:46.310
<v Speaker 3>listed questionable and I would be surprised. I'm treating these

0:31:46.430 --> 0:31:49.710
<v Speaker 3>more like 40% to play and for Peyton Watson, maybe

0:31:50.030 --> 0:31:53.340
<v Speaker 3>even 20%. Things are just really tricky. We saw Khan

0:31:53.420 --> 0:31:56.140
<v Speaker 3>come back from one and instantly have to go out.

0:31:57.500 --> 0:32:00.460
<v Speaker 3>This basically is trying to get ahead of that because

0:32:01.320 --> 0:32:03.700
<v Speaker 3>when those guys are out, it just checks every box.

0:32:03.740 --> 0:32:06.570
<v Speaker 3>Like his usage goes up with Allen off the court.

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:08.950
<v Speaker 3>His usage goes up with Watson off the court. His

0:32:08.990 --> 0:32:11.150
<v Speaker 3>rebound rate goes up with Allen off the court. His

0:32:11.250 --> 0:32:13.550
<v Speaker 3>rebound rate goes up with Watson off the court. So yeah,

0:32:14.120 --> 0:32:16.380
<v Speaker 3>it checks like all four of the boxes for both

0:32:16.400 --> 0:32:19.270
<v Speaker 3>these guys. So if either of them miss it's, it's

0:32:19.290 --> 0:32:21.570
<v Speaker 3>a very good play. And if both it's, it's like a,

0:32:21.790 --> 0:32:25.590
<v Speaker 3>you know, it'll be a fourth star on. Yeah. It'll

0:32:25.610 --> 0:32:27.690
<v Speaker 3>be a four star play of the day. So I'm

0:32:27.730 --> 0:32:30.400
<v Speaker 3>hardened over 22 and a half points, kind of points

0:32:30.420 --> 0:32:32.500
<v Speaker 3>and rebounds trying to get ahead of some injury news

0:32:32.540 --> 0:32:34.800
<v Speaker 3>here that I don't think those are real questionable tags,

0:32:35.080 --> 0:32:37.020
<v Speaker 3>but they're real, but I just, I'm treating them more

0:32:37.060 --> 0:32:39.650
<v Speaker 3>like 40%, maybe even less for Watson.

0:32:40.570 --> 0:32:42.430
<v Speaker 1>Also a front end of a back-to-back because they play

0:32:42.450 --> 0:32:45.450
<v Speaker 1>the Knicks on Saturday. So I think you got like

0:32:45.470 --> 0:32:47.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of even extra, like maybe they just,

0:32:47.980 --> 0:32:50.480
<v Speaker 1>maybe they sit like one or if not both.

0:32:51.400 --> 0:32:56.620
<v Speaker 3>Maybe they spread them out or just spread them out. Yeah.

0:32:57.500 --> 0:32:57.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:32:57.960 --> 0:32:58.740
<v Speaker 3>I like that a lot.

0:33:00.120 --> 0:33:03.500
<v Speaker 2>The Sixers are averaging the fewest corner three attempts per

0:33:03.540 --> 0:33:06.790
<v Speaker 2>game in the league. If you wonder what that has.

0:33:06.740 --> 0:33:08.190
<v Speaker 3>To do with allowing the fewest.

0:33:08.680 --> 0:33:12.120
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, they're allowing the fewest. And if you're wondering what

0:33:12.140 --> 0:33:16.250
<v Speaker 2>that has to do with this, Harden is taking 0.9

0:33:16.250 --> 0:33:19.110
<v Speaker 2>of those per game, which is not a lot. I

0:33:19.150 --> 0:33:22.370
<v Speaker 2>do think it's kind of an indicator of you're going

0:33:22.390 --> 0:33:25.490
<v Speaker 2>to need the on-ball creation. It's going to have to

0:33:25.530 --> 0:33:30.260
<v Speaker 2>be him creating and pick and roll, specifically. So you

0:33:30.280 --> 0:33:32.180
<v Speaker 2>said Allen is the one that's questionable for tomorrow?

0:33:32.940 --> 0:33:34.060
<v Speaker 3>And Peyton Watson.

0:33:34.080 --> 0:33:36.700
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't care about Peyton. But are you worried

0:33:36.740 --> 0:33:39.320
<v Speaker 2>about are you worried enough?

0:33:40.300 --> 0:33:40.680
<v Speaker 3>Nice kid.

0:33:41.280 --> 0:33:43.840
<v Speaker 2>Um, are you worried at all about if Alan's out

0:33:43.900 --> 0:33:45.100
<v Speaker 2>hard and being able to generate enough?

0:33:45.900 --> 0:33:49.130
<v Speaker 3>Well, he, I mean with, with Alan on, he's much

0:33:49.170 --> 0:33:50.910
<v Speaker 3>more of a passer with him off. He's much more

0:33:50.930 --> 0:33:52.710
<v Speaker 3>of a scorer. So he, he has to kind of

0:33:52.750 --> 0:33:55.470
<v Speaker 3>generate in a different way. That's, that's like the cap

0:33:55.590 --> 0:33:58.030
<v Speaker 3>basically is that when Alan's off, he goes more to

0:33:58.090 --> 0:33:59.350
<v Speaker 3>his scoring than his creation.

0:33:59.850 --> 0:34:00.110
<v Speaker 2>Okay.

0:34:00.590 --> 0:34:01.110
<v Speaker 3>That makes sense.

0:34:01.430 --> 0:34:03.330
<v Speaker 2>That actually makes a lot of sense. Um, that's a

0:34:03.470 --> 0:34:05.550
<v Speaker 2>good cap because yeah, he'll have to go to the

0:34:05.590 --> 0:34:06.130
<v Speaker 2>step back more.

0:34:06.340 --> 0:34:06.580
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:34:06.960 --> 0:34:08.820
<v Speaker 2>James harden over 22 and a half pr in a

0:34:08.840 --> 0:34:11.299
<v Speaker 2>game where by the way i'm taking the sixers i

0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:13.819
<v Speaker 2>think i think they're gonna win another one i just

0:34:14.640 --> 0:34:18.759
<v Speaker 2>i can't this a general statement that i thought the

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:21.060
<v Speaker 2>sixers were going to take time to figure this out

0:34:21.320 --> 0:34:24.219
<v Speaker 2>and guess what they are i watch these games and

0:34:24.260 --> 0:34:26.460
<v Speaker 2>like zach lois talked about this and like the nerdy

0:34:26.760 --> 0:34:29.200
<v Speaker 2>basketball shows have talked about this they do not know

0:34:29.239 --> 0:34:33.230
<v Speaker 2>what they're doing they are just like um Well, that

0:34:33.250 --> 0:34:36.629
<v Speaker 2>didn't work, and we can't really get this screen angle. Ah, crap,

0:34:36.650 --> 0:34:39.890
<v Speaker 2>we missed that one. Here, I'm going to give it

0:34:39.910 --> 0:34:43.200
<v Speaker 2>to you, and you just cook your guy, okay? Cool. Profit.

0:34:43.739 --> 0:34:46.700
<v Speaker 3>I cannot believe they have the second-best defense.

0:34:47.440 --> 0:34:50.080
<v Speaker 1>It feels fake. Some of it feels fake.

0:34:50.860 --> 0:34:53.299
<v Speaker 2>How many times have they played the Knicks, though? Because

0:34:53.320 --> 0:34:53.899
<v Speaker 2>that probably helps.

0:34:53.920 --> 0:34:57.260
<v Speaker 1>Well, they've played the Bulls. So this is actually hilarious.

0:34:57.340 --> 0:34:59.710
<v Speaker 1>I saw this tweet, and then I quote-tweeted it. The

0:34:59.750 --> 0:35:03.730
<v Speaker 1>Bulls have had the most hilarious schedule. It's like they're

0:35:03.750 --> 0:35:09.270
<v Speaker 1>playing six straight games against the Knicks, the Celtics, and

0:35:09.310 --> 0:35:13.170
<v Speaker 1>the Sixers, and they're through five of them. They've gotten

0:35:13.510 --> 0:35:19.270
<v Speaker 1>absolutely steamrolled in all of those games. So I think, honestly,

0:35:20.030 --> 0:35:24.570
<v Speaker 1>all the stats for all three of the Knicks, the Celtics,

0:35:24.610 --> 0:35:27.660
<v Speaker 1>and the Sixers are hilarious because they've gotten two games

0:35:27.680 --> 0:35:31.219
<v Speaker 1>where they have just gotten to literally just dump on

0:35:31.239 --> 0:35:33.580
<v Speaker 1>the bulls for 48 minutes it's.

0:35:33.840 --> 0:35:38.190
<v Speaker 2>Unbelievable the bulls are just like that the soldier shell-shocked

0:35:38.870 --> 0:35:41.070
<v Speaker 2>yeah i mean that's just what they are just staring

0:35:41.090 --> 0:35:42.170
<v Speaker 2>into the distance.

0:35:42.010 --> 0:35:45.170
<v Speaker 1>It's caleb williams like his intro to the nba it's

0:35:45.210 --> 0:35:46.690
<v Speaker 1>like hello sir.

0:35:47.430 --> 0:35:50.350
<v Speaker 2>Welcome in kid i hope you enjoyed it uh let's

0:35:50.370 --> 0:35:53.029
<v Speaker 2>do some two stars let's snake this uh jim give

0:35:53.050 --> 0:35:53.690
<v Speaker 2>me your two-star.

0:35:54.719 --> 0:35:57.600
<v Speaker 3>My favorite guy here, your favorite, super favorite guy, I'm

0:35:57.620 --> 0:35:59.379
<v Speaker 3>taking it under, Ty Jerome, under 22. No!

0:35:59.400 --> 0:35:59.560
<v Speaker 1>No.

0:35:59.600 --> 0:36:05.160
<v Speaker 3>Boo! Boo! He played a very friendly schedule for a guard.

0:36:06.120 --> 0:36:08.700
<v Speaker 3>He's boosted a bit by that opening night game and

0:36:08.719 --> 0:36:11.600
<v Speaker 3>then the overtime game last night. Probably the toughest opponent

0:36:11.620 --> 0:36:15.000
<v Speaker 3>you can have as a guard going against that OKC defense. Obviously,

0:36:15.020 --> 0:36:17.160
<v Speaker 3>they got a few guys out, but they're still a

0:36:17.200 --> 0:36:20.190
<v Speaker 3>hell of a backcourt to go against. His toughest opponents

0:36:20.230 --> 0:36:22.570
<v Speaker 3>he did play was Portland. He scored 10 points in

0:36:22.590 --> 0:36:25.840
<v Speaker 3>that game. um the line is lower than a season

0:36:25.940 --> 0:36:27.899
<v Speaker 3>average i would this would have been a three star

0:36:27.940 --> 0:36:29.640
<v Speaker 3>if it was you know hovering a little bit higher

0:36:29.700 --> 0:36:31.590
<v Speaker 3>especially 24 and a half would have been really nice

0:36:32.700 --> 0:36:35.850
<v Speaker 3>listen he is playing incredible he's also shooting like an

0:36:36.170 --> 0:36:39.470
<v Speaker 3>irrational number on twos um those are even like crazier

0:36:39.510 --> 0:36:42.530
<v Speaker 3>than the threes uh but the the shots are very

0:36:42.570 --> 0:36:44.430
<v Speaker 3>if you watch these games part of why we love

0:36:44.469 --> 0:36:46.969
<v Speaker 3>him is because the shots are so hard and they

0:36:46.989 --> 0:36:50.239
<v Speaker 3>still somehow go in it doesn't really make sense I

0:36:50.260 --> 0:36:52.520
<v Speaker 3>think against OKC, that dries up a little bit. So

0:36:52.580 --> 0:36:55.900
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to take the under 22.5 for Ty Jerome, sadly.

0:36:56.760 --> 0:36:59.040
<v Speaker 2>How dare you? How dare you come on this podcast

0:36:59.060 --> 0:37:00.080
<v Speaker 2>with me wearing this hat?

0:37:00.520 --> 0:37:02.200
<v Speaker 3>Disrespectful.

0:37:02.570 --> 0:37:04.950
<v Speaker 2>So I said, I made a passing comment last week.

0:37:05.150 --> 0:37:07.529
<v Speaker 2>We were talking about Luka's MVP chances, and I was like, yeah, look,

0:37:07.550 --> 0:37:08.950
<v Speaker 2>if Luka keeps it up, he might be able to

0:37:09.010 --> 0:37:12.710
<v Speaker 2>be up there with Ty Jerome. Mavericks and Lakers fans

0:37:12.950 --> 0:37:17.779
<v Speaker 2>lost their shit. They lost their minds on me. They

0:37:17.800 --> 0:37:23.290
<v Speaker 2>were like, You are comparing Ty Jerome to Luka Doncic?

0:37:23.350 --> 0:37:25.089
<v Speaker 2>And I was like, no, technically I was comparing Luka

0:37:25.130 --> 0:37:26.140
<v Speaker 2>Doncic to Ty Jerome.

0:37:27.860 --> 0:37:29.420
<v Speaker 3>Get him.

0:37:29.840 --> 0:37:31.939
<v Speaker 2>I can't believe you're taking the under. I'm so offended

0:37:31.960 --> 0:37:36.109
<v Speaker 2>at you. How dare you? We do not take Ty

0:37:36.130 --> 0:37:38.989
<v Speaker 2>Jerome unders on this show. That's the last one of

0:37:39.190 --> 0:37:40.189
<v Speaker 2>the year.

0:37:40.489 --> 0:37:44.290
<v Speaker 3>I've even got the UVA representation with Don Staley right there.

0:37:44.650 --> 0:37:46.569
<v Speaker 3>I've got the Wahoos in the house and I've got

0:37:46.590 --> 0:37:49.690
<v Speaker 3>to go Ty Jerome under 22.

0:37:49.690 --> 0:37:51.370
<v Speaker 2>Joe, save us from this awfulness.

0:37:51.989 --> 0:37:55.410
<v Speaker 1>We're going to take the better player here, Luka Doncic

0:37:55.430 --> 0:37:57.810
<v Speaker 1>over 34.

0:37:57.810 --> 0:37:58.770
<v Speaker 2>Mad at both of you.

0:37:58.790 --> 0:38:06.370
<v Speaker 1>This is admittedly like a ridiculous line here um 34

0:38:06.489 --> 0:38:10.130
<v Speaker 1>and a half is just it feels it feels insane

0:38:10.690 --> 0:38:13.420
<v Speaker 1>it reminds me of that like one stretch where i

0:38:13.430 --> 0:38:15.600
<v Speaker 1>think james harden had a points prop like 39 and

0:38:15.620 --> 0:38:17.620
<v Speaker 1>a half um there were a couple games in a

0:38:17.660 --> 0:38:21.459
<v Speaker 1>row where he was just like on another planet but

0:38:22.180 --> 0:38:25.180
<v Speaker 1>luca has been so absurd.

0:38:25.960 --> 0:38:26.560
<v Speaker 3>This season.

0:38:27.780 --> 0:38:30.060
<v Speaker 1>He's hit this now in six straight games, including a

0:38:30.040 --> 0:38:34.020
<v Speaker 1>41 point performance against the same Portland trailblazers. He is

0:38:34.100 --> 0:38:37.600
<v Speaker 1>taking just an outrageous number of threes. So I don't

0:38:37.620 --> 0:38:39.180
<v Speaker 1>mind if you're like, all right, Joe, like I can't

0:38:39.200 --> 0:38:41.560
<v Speaker 1>do 34 and a half. You can take four and

0:38:41.580 --> 0:38:43.140
<v Speaker 1>a half. You can take four and a half threes.

0:38:43.820 --> 0:38:48.010
<v Speaker 1>He is taking it made at least six in seven

0:38:48.050 --> 0:38:51.390
<v Speaker 1>of eight games this season, or I'm sorry, taking a

0:38:51.410 --> 0:38:53.710
<v Speaker 1>made at least five in seven of eight games this season.

0:38:54.110 --> 0:38:56.739
<v Speaker 1>But the last couple games, he's taken 13, 15, 12, 16, 15,

0:38:56.739 --> 0:39:06.819
<v Speaker 1>18 threes. The volume is absurd. And I know that

0:39:06.900 --> 0:39:12.160
<v Speaker 1>Portland generally is good at limiting three-point opportunities. It just

0:39:12.200 --> 0:39:14.420
<v Speaker 1>doesn't matter. It doesn't really matter overall.

0:39:14.440 --> 0:39:19.000
<v Speaker 2>I got to break it in here because you're absolutely right, Joe,

0:39:19.060 --> 0:39:21.359
<v Speaker 2>that they're great at containing threes. And this is where

0:39:21.380 --> 0:39:24.530
<v Speaker 2>the tactical side comes in. Portland is, in my opinion,

0:39:24.630 --> 0:39:27.060
<v Speaker 2>the most dedicated drop team in the league. They are

0:39:27.200 --> 0:39:30.080
<v Speaker 2>absolutely militant about drop. don they are never going to

0:39:30.100 --> 0:39:32.040
<v Speaker 2>bring donovan clinging out to the out to the perimeter

0:39:32.060 --> 0:39:33.960
<v Speaker 2>it does it's not fair to him he's not good

0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:36.940
<v Speaker 2>at it he's x he's too good dropping to the

0:39:36.980 --> 0:39:39.310
<v Speaker 2>rim yep okay so what does that do that allows

0:39:39.350 --> 0:39:42.870
<v Speaker 2>your wings to stay home you don't have to come

0:39:42.930 --> 0:39:45.330
<v Speaker 2>down and help because you're never you're never in rotation

0:39:45.750 --> 0:39:48.290
<v Speaker 2>The good thing about drop much like switch is nobody

0:39:48.350 --> 0:39:51.070
<v Speaker 2>has to help down. You can stay home on shooters,

0:39:52.280 --> 0:39:55.060
<v Speaker 2>but the cost of this is if you have a

0:39:55.120 --> 0:39:59.100
<v Speaker 2>guy who shoots threes off the dribble, the Portland trailblazers

0:39:59.140 --> 0:40:04.279
<v Speaker 2>via synergy sports allow the highest number per game of

0:40:04.380 --> 0:40:07.719
<v Speaker 2>three point attempts off of pick and roll in the

0:40:07.800 --> 0:40:12.549
<v Speaker 2>national basketball association, the national football league, the national basketball association.

0:40:12.969 --> 0:40:17.630
<v Speaker 2>Now they're allowing only 29% on them. And honestly, Luka

0:40:17.670 --> 0:40:22.330
<v Speaker 2>might shoot 29% on threes. He also might shoot 15

0:40:22.330 --> 0:40:22.629
<v Speaker 2>of them.

0:40:23.610 --> 0:40:26.090
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. So like, and that's the thing, because they're actually,

0:40:26.150 --> 0:40:28.489
<v Speaker 1>they're not good against pick and roll ball handlers. They're

0:40:28.550 --> 0:40:31.090
<v Speaker 1>not good on pull up opportunities and they allow a

0:40:31.170 --> 0:40:34.450
<v Speaker 1>ton of free throw attempts because they're a super physical team.

0:40:34.910 --> 0:40:37.049
<v Speaker 1>So I think you kind of lend your, it kind

0:40:37.090 --> 0:40:41.220
<v Speaker 1>of blends itself into this situation where players like Luka,

0:40:41.280 --> 0:40:46.540
<v Speaker 1>these super high usage ball dominant guards get what they want. Um,

0:40:46.860 --> 0:40:49.620
<v Speaker 1>and like Devin Booker went off against them. Jamal Murray

0:40:49.660 --> 0:40:52.420
<v Speaker 1>has gone off against them. Austin Reeves and Luca went

0:40:52.440 --> 0:40:55.120
<v Speaker 1>off in the same game against them. A cuff went

0:40:55.160 --> 0:40:57.920
<v Speaker 1>off against them. It's all like the same type of like,

0:40:57.980 --> 0:41:00.520
<v Speaker 1>not exactly the same type of player, but ball dominant

0:41:00.540 --> 0:41:03.550
<v Speaker 1>guys that will pull up from anywhere on the court.

0:41:04.010 --> 0:41:06.620
<v Speaker 1>And yes, a cuff is somebody that will do that

0:41:06.780 --> 0:41:08.890
<v Speaker 1>as a rookie. We already know that that's, that's what

0:41:08.930 --> 0:41:11.770
<v Speaker 1>he's going to do. Um, and to me, I just

0:41:11.790 --> 0:41:15.029
<v Speaker 1>think that this Lakers defense is not like really good

0:41:15.090 --> 0:41:17.620
<v Speaker 1>enough to And I don't think the offense is really

0:41:17.660 --> 0:41:20.859
<v Speaker 1>that good without Luca. Like Reeves, it looks like he's not,

0:41:21.180 --> 0:41:24.359
<v Speaker 1>he doesn't look exactly the same as he's had. He

0:41:24.430 --> 0:41:27.009
<v Speaker 1>has in like the past couple of seasons and like

0:41:27.070 --> 0:41:30.350
<v Speaker 1>Luca's plus minuses are absurd. The season is basically when

0:41:30.370 --> 0:41:32.710
<v Speaker 1>he's on the court, they're amazing. And when he's off

0:41:32.730 --> 0:41:35.610
<v Speaker 1>the court, they're either like, yeah, or, or they're just

0:41:35.700 --> 0:41:37.980
<v Speaker 1>a negative. So I think that this is a spot

0:41:38.020 --> 0:41:40.700
<v Speaker 1>where the Lakers obviously want this game. I think that

0:41:40.760 --> 0:41:43.589
<v Speaker 1>Luka in any type of tournament, you know, always kind

0:41:43.620 --> 0:41:45.069
<v Speaker 1>of takes like a little bit of a step forward.

0:41:45.300 --> 0:41:46.969
<v Speaker 1>And this is a cup game. And I could see

0:41:47.030 --> 0:41:50.810
<v Speaker 1>this mattering to him. And again, like he just dropped

0:41:50.810 --> 0:41:53.390
<v Speaker 1>41 against the same Blazers team a couple weeks ago.

0:41:53.489 --> 0:41:56.530
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's a great spot. The line is absurd,

0:41:56.910 --> 0:41:59.609
<v Speaker 1>but it's Luka Doncic. I'm going to go on this over.

0:42:00.270 --> 0:42:03.020
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, now I don't like my under. It's just the

0:42:03.040 --> 0:42:04.580
<v Speaker 2>more I think about it, I'm just like, how am

0:42:04.620 --> 0:42:07.089
<v Speaker 2>I going to get under when Lucas scores 50 points?

0:42:07.680 --> 0:42:09.850
<v Speaker 2>How did that happen here? I'm going to really need

0:42:09.890 --> 0:42:10.210
<v Speaker 2>a lot.

0:42:10.230 --> 0:42:11.890
<v Speaker 1>The Lakers score 100.

0:42:11.890 --> 0:42:16.770
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, exactly. That's the hope here. All right, my two-star

0:42:16.810 --> 0:42:19.610
<v Speaker 2>play of the night is going to be Jalen Wells

0:42:19.770 --> 0:42:26.540
<v Speaker 2>over one and a half threes. So OKC allows the

0:42:26.620 --> 0:42:29.969
<v Speaker 2>highest number of corner threes ever. per game in the league.

0:42:30.030 --> 0:42:31.719
<v Speaker 2>If you've been following the show, you know, this is

0:42:31.800 --> 0:42:35.140
<v Speaker 2>something that I play pretty consistently is I just like

0:42:35.180 --> 0:42:37.580
<v Speaker 2>taking these teams. They give up a lot of corner threes.

0:42:37.940 --> 0:42:40.040
<v Speaker 2>You find the guy that takes a lot of corner

0:42:40.060 --> 0:42:42.720
<v Speaker 2>threes and you play them over because of the opportunity here.

0:42:44.030 --> 0:42:47.569
<v Speaker 2>Same kind of deal here. I think with OKC, her

0:42:47.730 --> 0:42:49.589
<v Speaker 2>perimeter rotations are going to be worse because of the

0:42:49.650 --> 0:42:51.450
<v Speaker 2>guys that they're missing. Case and Wallace, J-Dub, those are

0:42:51.570 --> 0:42:53.569
<v Speaker 2>great help defenders. They have to help more, which at

0:42:53.590 --> 0:42:55.820
<v Speaker 2>home right now, defensively, they're not going to be the

0:42:55.860 --> 0:42:57.719
<v Speaker 2>same team. They're just not going to be the same team.

0:42:58.190 --> 0:43:00.310
<v Speaker 2>And that's going to open up more opportunities for cleaner passes.

0:43:00.350 --> 0:43:03.240
<v Speaker 2>This is the biggest thing is that case in case

0:43:03.280 --> 0:43:06.600
<v Speaker 2>of Wallace will sometimes make rotations that I do not

0:43:06.640 --> 0:43:10.060
<v Speaker 2>think are humanly possible. Like he just like appears in

0:43:10.100 --> 0:43:12.299
<v Speaker 2>a puff of smoke off of ball movement where I'm

0:43:12.320 --> 0:43:13.980
<v Speaker 2>like that, he can't get there. And then he gets

0:43:14.000 --> 0:43:16.750
<v Speaker 2>there and he can test it. And it's uncomfortable. Wells

0:43:16.870 --> 0:43:18.370
<v Speaker 2>over one and a half threes, I think is a

0:43:18.430 --> 0:43:20.989
<v Speaker 2>really good spot here versus this OKC team. I think

0:43:21.010 --> 0:43:22.930
<v Speaker 2>they are going to, I do think it's likely that

0:43:22.969 --> 0:43:24.489
<v Speaker 2>they clamp down on Ty Jerome. I think they're actually

0:43:24.510 --> 0:43:26.169
<v Speaker 2>going to send quite a bit of help up top

0:43:26.350 --> 0:43:28.950
<v Speaker 2>at him. I do think though that Cameron Boozer is

0:43:28.969 --> 0:43:30.720
<v Speaker 2>going to be loose on the short roll quite a bit.

0:43:30.760 --> 0:43:32.340
<v Speaker 2>Hartenstein is probably going to play off of him if

0:43:32.840 --> 0:43:34.719
<v Speaker 2>they're matched up. If it's a power forward, I don't

0:43:34.739 --> 0:43:38.080
<v Speaker 2>know who's power forward right now for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

0:43:38.100 --> 0:43:39.920
<v Speaker 2>And if that's the case, then they're going to probably

0:43:39.940 --> 0:43:41.940
<v Speaker 2>have to be a little cautious with Boozer to try

0:43:41.980 --> 0:43:44.250
<v Speaker 2>and contain him. And Boozer will absolutely hit the kick

0:43:44.290 --> 0:43:46.870
<v Speaker 2>to the corner over and over and over again. So

0:43:46.950 --> 0:43:48.910
<v Speaker 2>Jalen Wells over one and a half threes is going

0:43:48.930 --> 0:43:52.629
<v Speaker 2>to be my two-star play of the night. I love

0:43:52.650 --> 0:43:57.190
<v Speaker 2>these three-point props on Teams allow him a lot, and

0:43:57.230 --> 0:43:58.870
<v Speaker 2>I know that it should be baked into the number.

0:43:58.890 --> 0:44:01.530
<v Speaker 2>I think it's baked into the number on some guys.

0:44:01.860 --> 0:44:03.400
<v Speaker 2>I don't think it's baked into the number on all

0:44:03.420 --> 0:44:03.739
<v Speaker 2>the guys.

0:44:04.360 --> 0:44:07.540
<v Speaker 1>No. No, I was going to say, Wells, he's also

0:44:07.580 --> 0:44:10.100
<v Speaker 1>coming off a really bad game. He could not make

0:44:10.140 --> 0:44:12.240
<v Speaker 1>a shot against the Pacers.

0:44:12.440 --> 0:44:13.520
<v Speaker 3>So I think you're.

0:44:13.400 --> 0:44:17.400
<v Speaker 1>Kind of getting a little bit of a buy-low opportunity here, too,

0:44:17.469 --> 0:44:21.790
<v Speaker 1>just on Wells generally. And I think Memphis wants this

0:44:21.830 --> 0:44:23.610
<v Speaker 1>to work. So I think they're going to give him

0:44:23.650 --> 0:44:24.109
<v Speaker 1>plenty of run.

0:44:24.310 --> 0:44:24.710
<v Speaker 4>He's been good.

0:44:25.370 --> 0:44:25.609
<v Speaker 1>Okay.

0:44:27.090 --> 0:44:29.670
<v Speaker 2>Those are our two-star plays. Let's rattle into our one-star plays,

0:44:29.770 --> 0:44:33.969
<v Speaker 2>and we'll snake once again. I'm going to lay 15.5

0:44:33.969 --> 0:44:38.120
<v Speaker 2>points in an NBA game. That's the thing I'm going

0:44:38.200 --> 0:44:40.239
<v Speaker 2>to do. Yeah. I thought about pulling a fiddle here

0:44:41.020 --> 0:44:45.459
<v Speaker 2>and laying the money line. And just being like, look,

0:44:46.080 --> 0:44:48.640
<v Speaker 2>do you want to make a little bit or not?

0:44:49.160 --> 0:44:52.440
<v Speaker 2>Because they're not losing this game. The Spurs, since the

0:44:52.460 --> 0:44:55.239
<v Speaker 2>beginning of last season... when they are favored by more

0:44:55.280 --> 0:44:57.480
<v Speaker 2>than 14 points and when they are favored by 15

0:44:57.480 --> 0:45:00.260
<v Speaker 2>or more or 11 and Oh, they have not lost

0:45:00.280 --> 0:45:00.939
<v Speaker 2>a game yet.

0:45:01.460 --> 0:45:02.100
<v Speaker 1>Oh, that's good.

0:45:03.420 --> 0:45:05.420
<v Speaker 2>When they're dead, but I will not give out a

0:45:05.460 --> 0:45:08.560
<v Speaker 2>minus 900. I do like if Matt Mitchell were still,

0:45:08.580 --> 0:45:11.319
<v Speaker 2>we're still our producer. I would be under threat of

0:45:11.440 --> 0:45:14.160
<v Speaker 2>like mortal existence. Gifford ghoul would just make fun of me.

0:45:14.480 --> 0:45:17.100
<v Speaker 2>That's the difference is like Mitchell would try and harm

0:45:17.160 --> 0:45:21.400
<v Speaker 2>my body. Gifford would just be like, really, really? You

0:45:21.420 --> 0:45:24.640
<v Speaker 2>went on a show. You actually used resources and went

0:45:24.700 --> 0:45:26.299
<v Speaker 2>on our channel and gave out a minus 900.

0:45:26.300 --> 0:45:26.900
<v Speaker 1>I do.

0:45:28.640 --> 0:45:31.560
<v Speaker 2>Think that there's value on it. I think that that

0:45:31.620 --> 0:45:36.969
<v Speaker 2>number is wrong. So yeah, that's what I think, but

0:45:37.030 --> 0:45:38.709
<v Speaker 2>I will go ahead and lay the 15.5. I have

0:45:38.830 --> 0:45:42.130
<v Speaker 2>it 18.5. The Kings are horrendous. The Spurs are the

0:45:42.150 --> 0:45:44.330
<v Speaker 2>type of team that does beat these teams pretty consistently.

0:45:44.650 --> 0:45:47.009
<v Speaker 2>They are slightly above 500 when favored by this much.

0:45:47.110 --> 0:45:49.690
<v Speaker 2>It's not a huge margin. This is mostly, I do

0:45:49.730 --> 0:45:52.330
<v Speaker 2>not think that I think the books are a little

0:45:52.350 --> 0:45:54.710
<v Speaker 2>bit behind the Spurs on power rating. I think the

0:45:54.750 --> 0:45:56.950
<v Speaker 2>Spurs actually threw us off the scent with the first

0:45:56.989 --> 0:45:59.990
<v Speaker 2>like two games. And since then they've been an absolute

0:46:00.030 --> 0:46:03.550
<v Speaker 2>destroyer of worlds. And that's like De'Aaron Fox is playing great.

0:46:03.610 --> 0:46:05.520
<v Speaker 2>And Dylan Harper's playing great. And I don't know if

0:46:05.560 --> 0:46:07.680
<v Speaker 2>you know this, but Victor Weminyama is terrifying. That game

0:46:07.719 --> 0:46:10.480
<v Speaker 2>last night was absolutely horrifying to watch. It was just like,

0:46:10.520 --> 0:46:14.020
<v Speaker 2>Oh my God, it was a horror film. Amazing, amazing

0:46:14.060 --> 0:46:18.000
<v Speaker 2>performance from Wemby, all pick and roll stuff. So love,

0:46:18.840 --> 0:46:20.739
<v Speaker 2>The Spurs, minus 15 and a half. I'm going to

0:46:20.760 --> 0:46:22.380
<v Speaker 2>go ahead and lay the wood here with my one star.

0:46:22.780 --> 0:46:24.279
<v Speaker 2>It's just a one star, but it's minus 15 and

0:46:24.300 --> 0:46:27.660
<v Speaker 2>a half for my final play of the night. Let's

0:46:27.700 --> 0:46:30.739
<v Speaker 2>go to Jim Turvey for his last play.

0:46:31.420 --> 0:46:34.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I joked at the Harden. If those guys are out,

0:46:34.219 --> 0:46:36.340
<v Speaker 3>turns into a four star. This one is going to

0:46:36.390 --> 0:46:39.410
<v Speaker 3>be a half star. This is a one star that

0:46:39.739 --> 0:46:41.850
<v Speaker 3>even though it's a decent size slate, I was struggling

0:46:41.870 --> 0:46:45.190
<v Speaker 3>to find stuff. So my one slash half star is

0:46:45.230 --> 0:46:47.990
<v Speaker 3>Zach Eadie over 16 and a half points plus rebounds.

0:46:48.960 --> 0:46:50.920
<v Speaker 3>The cap here is kind of light, to be honest.

0:46:51.000 --> 0:46:53.700
<v Speaker 3>It's mostly that we saw him play 25 minutes last game.

0:46:53.719 --> 0:46:56.960
<v Speaker 3>His best game of the season, probably. I do think

0:46:57.000 --> 0:46:58.480
<v Speaker 3>that they're starting to ramp him up. We were talking

0:46:58.520 --> 0:47:03.040
<v Speaker 3>about before the show and Joe's mentioned how they're kind

0:47:03.060 --> 0:47:04.819
<v Speaker 3>of like saving him. I do think that they are

0:47:05.440 --> 0:47:08.700
<v Speaker 3>kind of doing this slow ramp up to seeing him

0:47:09.260 --> 0:47:14.240
<v Speaker 3>play bigger minutes. His impact numbers are still really, really strong. Obviously,

0:47:14.280 --> 0:47:16.219
<v Speaker 3>don't love the opponent here. I've got the under on

0:47:16.480 --> 0:47:18.870
<v Speaker 3>Ty Jerome. It's still a tough front court in the,

0:47:19.050 --> 0:47:21.870
<v Speaker 3>in the thunder. Um, but I think this is just

0:47:21.910 --> 0:47:25.359
<v Speaker 3>low enough. I'm, I think the minutes will roll back. Um,

0:47:25.800 --> 0:47:28.700
<v Speaker 3>and you know, she's there to potentially have foul trouble,

0:47:28.719 --> 0:47:31.240
<v Speaker 3>but in Hartenstein, they don't really have an opposing center.

0:47:31.260 --> 0:47:33.419
<v Speaker 3>That's going to get him in foul trouble. So unless,

0:47:33.760 --> 0:47:35.879
<v Speaker 3>as long as he's avoiding, you know, some of the,

0:47:35.980 --> 0:47:38.100
<v Speaker 3>the shape outbite stuff, which I feel like tends to

0:47:38.120 --> 0:47:41.440
<v Speaker 3>happen more in the mid range. Um, I think Edie

0:47:41.520 --> 0:47:43.080
<v Speaker 3>should be able to clear this 16 and a half

0:47:43.120 --> 0:47:47.250
<v Speaker 3>points plus rebounding 24 last game. Um, obviously he's been,

0:47:47.290 --> 0:47:49.610
<v Speaker 3>he's gotten under several times. He's averaging around 15 and

0:47:49.650 --> 0:47:51.430
<v Speaker 3>a half and tough opponent, which is kind of why

0:47:51.469 --> 0:47:53.400
<v Speaker 3>I'm a little bit lower on it. Um, but I

0:47:53.420 --> 0:47:55.279
<v Speaker 3>still think, uh, that he'll be able to clear this

0:47:55.400 --> 0:47:57.980
<v Speaker 3>against the thunder on a Friday. I like this.

0:47:58.000 --> 0:47:59.920
<v Speaker 2>I think, I think this is a better captain than

0:47:59.940 --> 0:48:01.420
<v Speaker 2>you're giving it credit for. I think this is a

0:48:01.440 --> 0:48:04.200
<v Speaker 2>really good play. Hardenstein does not want to deal with

0:48:04.239 --> 0:48:07.330
<v Speaker 2>guys this size. He doesn't want, like he struggles when

0:48:07.390 --> 0:48:10.730
<v Speaker 2>it's like Hardenstein's a really good defender, but this is

0:48:10.770 --> 0:48:13.089
<v Speaker 2>a monster of a human. Edie is so present all

0:48:13.150 --> 0:48:18.319
<v Speaker 2>the time. Um, I think it's more likely that his

0:48:18.440 --> 0:48:21.500
<v Speaker 2>numbers are probably something that they will look to correct

0:48:21.800 --> 0:48:23.450
<v Speaker 2>rather than it being something where that's going to be

0:48:23.489 --> 0:48:27.630
<v Speaker 2>his role. And what did you, you talked about the

0:48:27.690 --> 0:48:30.569
<v Speaker 2>minutes there. They're starting to finally take a little bit.

0:48:30.910 --> 0:48:31.129
<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

0:48:31.230 --> 0:48:35.330
<v Speaker 2>Okay. So that's like the biggest concern here should be okay.

0:48:35.410 --> 0:48:38.290
<v Speaker 2>Unless they get absolutely smoked, which is a possibility though, Casey, they're,

0:48:38.350 --> 0:48:40.390
<v Speaker 2>they're pretty good, but as long as they don't get smoked,

0:48:40.410 --> 0:48:42.009
<v Speaker 2>I actually, I like this cap a lot, Jim, I

0:48:42.030 --> 0:48:43.600
<v Speaker 2>think you should feel better about this, this one star.

0:48:44.350 --> 0:48:47.029
<v Speaker 3>We'll lock it in. No half-star nonsense. We're stamping it

0:48:47.070 --> 0:48:47.969
<v Speaker 3>with the full star.

0:48:48.230 --> 0:48:51.410
<v Speaker 2>There you go. No Brian Pasek on the show. Joe,

0:48:51.450 --> 0:48:52.450
<v Speaker 2>take us home with your one-star.

0:48:53.950 --> 0:48:56.570
<v Speaker 1>My one-star, he kind of let me down last game,

0:48:56.650 --> 0:48:59.670
<v Speaker 1>but I'm going back to Cooper Flagg over 25.5 points.

0:49:00.110 --> 0:49:01.609
<v Speaker 1>I don't really know how much he let me down

0:49:01.670 --> 0:49:05.040
<v Speaker 1>as Wemby just swatted a couple shots out of the

0:49:05.120 --> 0:49:05.900
<v Speaker 1>middle of the air.

0:49:05.920 --> 0:49:09.620
<v Speaker 3>Bro, that one clip with the eight different dudes just like,

0:49:09.640 --> 0:49:14.719
<v Speaker 3>and he's just like, To everyone, that game was insane.

0:49:14.719 --> 0:49:15.359
<v Speaker 3>It's nuts.

0:49:15.360 --> 0:49:18.650
<v Speaker 1>And I mean, the thing about Flag, though, that I

0:49:18.650 --> 0:49:20.820
<v Speaker 1>that I like is he still just is continuing to

0:49:21.070 --> 0:49:23.919
<v Speaker 1>take an outrageous amount of shots. Like he again, took

0:49:23.920 --> 0:49:26.319
<v Speaker 1>19 shots last game and he's missed this now two

0:49:26.340 --> 0:49:28.960
<v Speaker 1>in a row against the Kings and the, against the

0:49:29.000 --> 0:49:31.120
<v Speaker 1>Kings and the Spurs Spurs, a better team, obviously, but

0:49:31.140 --> 0:49:34.300
<v Speaker 1>he's played 40 minutes in both games. So the minutes

0:49:34.320 --> 0:49:36.940
<v Speaker 1>are up. He's been like, that's actually basically 40 minutes

0:49:36.980 --> 0:49:41.120
<v Speaker 1>in three games in a row, Utah, Awful. Terrible against

0:49:41.160 --> 0:49:45.540
<v Speaker 1>pick and roll. Terrible defensive rating. They're not good in

0:49:45.560 --> 0:49:47.760
<v Speaker 1>the paint. They allow a ton of free throw attempts.

0:49:47.820 --> 0:49:50.550
<v Speaker 1>They allow a lot of shots from pull-up opportunities.

0:49:52.030 --> 0:49:52.810
<v Speaker 2>Other than that, though.

0:49:53.550 --> 0:49:58.330
<v Speaker 1>Other than that, though, they play at a moderate pace,

0:49:58.370 --> 0:50:00.729
<v Speaker 1>so you have that. But the thing that I like

0:50:00.870 --> 0:50:03.549
<v Speaker 1>is that they don't really help a ton, and they

0:50:03.590 --> 0:50:05.450
<v Speaker 1>kind of are in a situation where they're going to

0:50:05.469 --> 0:50:07.830
<v Speaker 1>try to cover you straight up. And I don't know

0:50:07.890 --> 0:50:11.020
<v Speaker 1>who on Utah is going to cover Cooper flag. Like,

0:50:11.120 --> 0:50:13.340
<v Speaker 1>I just don't think that there is somebody capable of

0:50:13.400 --> 0:50:15.660
<v Speaker 1>covering him straight up right now. Like maybe if they

0:50:15.700 --> 0:50:17.700
<v Speaker 1>had Jaron, you could say like he could do it,

0:50:17.739 --> 0:50:19.100
<v Speaker 1>or at least as a floater, but we've kind of

0:50:19.120 --> 0:50:22.899
<v Speaker 1>seen Jaron not be like super effective in like straight

0:50:22.940 --> 0:50:25.279
<v Speaker 1>up one-on-one situations for a whole game. He's better in

0:50:25.320 --> 0:50:27.950
<v Speaker 1>that like kind of roaming type of role anyway. So

0:50:28.050 --> 0:50:30.850
<v Speaker 1>I think for me, it's an opportunity where I feel

0:50:30.870 --> 0:50:32.370
<v Speaker 1>like I'm trying to get a little bit back off

0:50:32.390 --> 0:50:34.330
<v Speaker 1>the past couple of games to a degree, but I

0:50:34.370 --> 0:50:36.950
<v Speaker 1>also think that the cap has been, the volume is there.

0:50:36.989 --> 0:50:40.310
<v Speaker 1>He's getting plenty of opportunity to, and some of the

0:50:40.350 --> 0:50:43.189
<v Speaker 1>shots just aren't necessarily falling. So I like Cooper Flagg

0:50:43.230 --> 0:50:47.190
<v Speaker 1>here again, 25.5 points against Utah in what I think

0:50:47.210 --> 0:50:48.350
<v Speaker 1>is a plus matchup for him.

0:50:49.370 --> 0:50:50.970
<v Speaker 2>I just want to say how much I love that

0:50:51.070 --> 0:50:54.080
<v Speaker 2>Joe is now– I love this new version of Joe.

0:50:55.280 --> 0:50:58.080
<v Speaker 2>You needed to rock a porn star mustache a lot

0:50:58.520 --> 0:51:01.680
<v Speaker 2>sooner because I used to have to be like, Joe,

0:51:02.320 --> 0:51:07.160
<v Speaker 2>we don't have to play– Landry Shamit over four and

0:51:07.180 --> 0:51:08.239
<v Speaker 2>a half points.

0:51:08.320 --> 0:51:11.719
<v Speaker 3>I was thinking the same thing Luca and Cooper over points.

0:51:11.620 --> 0:51:15.200
<v Speaker 4>Luca and Cooper over points my guy you know what's

0:51:15.260 --> 0:51:18.320
<v Speaker 4>funny is last against the Bulls I bet on Landry

0:51:18.340 --> 0:51:20.690
<v Speaker 4>Shamit over points and he went under and it was

0:51:20.710 --> 0:51:22.850
<v Speaker 4>like one of the I went like four and two

0:51:22.910 --> 0:51:25.390
<v Speaker 4>on the night and that was my last ad because

0:51:25.410 --> 0:51:25.830
<v Speaker 4>I was like.

0:51:25.810 --> 0:51:28.469
<v Speaker 1>Alright great I can get a nice 10 plus here

0:51:28.650 --> 0:51:32.590
<v Speaker 1>and it lost so here I am just betting on Luca.

0:51:32.290 --> 0:51:38.770
<v Speaker 2>Non-stop amazing amazing it's a great turnaround it's awesome.

0:51:38.530 --> 0:51:40.440
<v Speaker 1>Yeah you got me.

0:51:40.060 --> 0:51:43.540
<v Speaker 2>Taking jaylen wells over one and a half threes yeah

0:51:43.739 --> 0:51:45.980
<v Speaker 2>and joe's out here rocking the superstar props it's excellent

0:51:46.000 --> 0:51:48.580
<v Speaker 2>all right let's go over our card once again uh

0:51:49.480 --> 0:51:51.450
<v Speaker 2>well first we'll do our best bets for the night

0:51:51.530 --> 0:51:53.910
<v Speaker 2>we'll go ahead and get hit those uh here real

0:51:53.950 --> 0:51:56.530
<v Speaker 2>quick these are our three-star plays all the night presented

0:51:56.550 --> 0:52:00.419
<v Speaker 2>by draft king sports book I like bucks Raptors under

0:52:00.480 --> 0:52:03.899
<v Speaker 2>two 30 and a half Joe's on AJ Mitchell over

0:52:03.900 --> 0:52:05.820
<v Speaker 2>18 and a half points. I love that one. The

0:52:05.840 --> 0:52:08.680
<v Speaker 2>more I've looked at it and James Harden over 22

0:52:08.680 --> 0:52:10.960
<v Speaker 2>and a half points and rebounds is going to be

0:52:11.020 --> 0:52:16.550
<v Speaker 2>Jim Turvey's three-star play. Just go ahead. We are past

0:52:16.590 --> 0:52:19.550
<v Speaker 2>the jinxing point. So I just get to like, just

0:52:19.630 --> 0:52:23.150
<v Speaker 2>list what we're at because regression is inevitable because we

0:52:23.170 --> 0:52:25.930
<v Speaker 2>passed that point. Our three-star plays on the year are

0:52:25.930 --> 0:52:30.170
<v Speaker 2>18 and nine. We are 18-9 on three stars. So

0:52:30.190 --> 0:52:33.130
<v Speaker 2>you can catch those in the Action Network app and

0:52:33.170 --> 0:52:36.950
<v Speaker 2>in the episode description as well. Those are our best

0:52:36.989 --> 0:52:44.300
<v Speaker 2>bets presented by DraftKings. Make sure to use code BUCKETSPOD. BUCKETSPOD, P-O-D.

0:52:44.680 --> 0:52:48.580
<v Speaker 2>When signing up for a great offer, DraftKings, the crown

0:52:49.800 --> 0:52:53.819
<v Speaker 2>is yours. All right, that's our best bets for the

0:52:53.860 --> 0:52:59.580
<v Speaker 2>Friday slate. Jim Turvey's got James Harden over 22... 22.5 PR.

0:52:59.760 --> 0:53:02.219
<v Speaker 2>Ty Jerome under 22.5 points because he's a son of

0:53:02.260 --> 0:53:06.140
<v Speaker 2>a bitch. And Zach Eadie over 16.5 PR. Joe Dallara's

0:53:06.180 --> 0:53:10.750
<v Speaker 2>got AJ Mitchell over 17.5 points. Luka Doncic over 34.5 points.

0:53:11.070 --> 0:53:16.790
<v Speaker 2>And Cooper Flagg over 25.5 points. Super Square Joe D.

0:53:16.810 --> 0:53:17.830
<v Speaker 3>It's amazing.

0:53:18.570 --> 0:53:20.009
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's one of those days.

0:53:20.030 --> 0:53:21.720
<v Speaker 3>It's one of those days.

0:53:22.430 --> 0:53:24.930
<v Speaker 2>I'm on Bucks Raptors under 230 and a half. Jalen

0:53:24.969 --> 0:53:27.410
<v Speaker 2>Wells over one and a half threes and Spurs minus

0:53:27.410 --> 0:53:31.149
<v Speaker 2>15 and a half. I can't call you. I'm laying

0:53:31.150 --> 0:53:34.049
<v Speaker 2>15 and a half points with Spurs. So that's how

0:53:34.090 --> 0:53:36.290
<v Speaker 2>that goes. Appreciate you guys being with us. Hope you

0:53:36.310 --> 0:53:38.049
<v Speaker 2>guys have a great night. We'll see you guys again

0:53:38.090 --> 0:53:41.029
<v Speaker 2>next time. Tomorrow night, Buckets on Friday night. Come join us.

0:53:41.070 --> 0:53:43.170
<v Speaker 2>We'll be hanging out with Andrew O'Connor-Watts and Joe DeLera.

0:53:43.469 --> 0:53:45.870
<v Speaker 2>Make sure to follow Jim Turvey over at Roto Grinders.

0:53:45.890 --> 0:53:48.050
<v Speaker 2>We'll see you guys again next time. Until then, let's

0:53:48.070 --> 0:53:56.380
<v Speaker 2>get buckets. Action Network reminds you, please gamble responsibly. If

0:53:56.460 --> 0:53:59.020
<v Speaker 2>you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

0:53:59.340 --> 0:54:00.600
<v Speaker 2>help is available 24-7 at 1-800-GAMBLER.