WEBVTT - C-Suite Insights From Mattel, Chipotle Executives

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Wait inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Messer and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>We did see Mattel. We talked about it actually after

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<v Speaker 2>the post yesterday because they came out with their earnings

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<v Speaker 2>and man, the stock really rallied big time today on

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<v Speaker 2>heavy volume, and this is after the company reported it

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<v Speaker 2>actually rallied earlier in the day. I think by the

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<v Speaker 2>end of the day it was lower like the overall market.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it ended up finishing the day up by about

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<v Speaker 3>four tens of one percent, so like a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>the stocks out there today, kind of all over the place.

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<v Speaker 2>Right up six percent earlier. So let's get to it.

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<v Speaker 2>Because the company did report sales and profit that beat

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<v Speaker 2>Alice expectations with us and delighted to have us back

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<v Speaker 2>with us. Is Enon cries, chairman and CEO of Mattel,

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<v Speaker 2>on the phone in Elsugundo, California. Forgive me, Ino, there's

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<v Speaker 2>a lot going on. Try to keep track of it.

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<v Speaker 2>I know you've had a busy plate as well, first

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<v Speaker 2>of all, congratulations on Barbie, because we have been talking

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<v Speaker 2>about that with you for a while. I almost feel

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<v Speaker 2>like since the beginning and your strategy of bringing Mattel

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<v Speaker 2>Toys to life, what does the success of the movie

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<v Speaker 2>mean to you and the company.

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<v Speaker 4>Yes, that's right, Carol, and thank you for having me

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<v Speaker 4>on the show. As you remember from the very beginning,

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<v Speaker 4>this was never about just making a movie. This was

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<v Speaker 4>about creating a cultural event, a societal moment, and we

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<v Speaker 4>could not be happier where we are today with such

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<v Speaker 4>strong performance right out of the gate the first week,

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<v Speaker 4>with over five hundred million dollars in growth in box

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<v Speaker 4>office receipts, and more importantly the audience reaction with people

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<v Speaker 4>going too and even three times already in the first

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<v Speaker 4>week to see the movie, a very broad audience including men,

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<v Speaker 4>and very strong performance internationally that is stronger than than

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<v Speaker 4>the US. And it's not because the US is not

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<v Speaker 4>doing well. It's just a very strong performance across the world.

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<v Speaker 4>And all in all, it really is, uh, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>an exciting moment and a showcase for the cultural resonance

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<v Speaker 4>of our brands, our ability to attract and collaborate with

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<v Speaker 4>top creative talent and our marketing and demand creation capabilities

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<v Speaker 4>to create what is now you know, a cultural phenomenon.

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<v Speaker 2>You know what does it mean for merchandise? I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I've actually bought some Barbie products. To be quite honest,

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<v Speaker 2>I grew up with Barbie's, introduced them to my daughter,

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<v Speaker 2>My older sisters introduced me to them, and it's nostalgic

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<v Speaker 2>for me. But I also have been in the stores

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<v Speaker 2>where all ages are snapping out products. How how does

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<v Speaker 2>that move the needle for you guys financially as well?

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<v Speaker 4>All those Yeah, we did see incredible take up of

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<v Speaker 4>the movie related merchandise. We we have a having been

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<v Speaker 4>sixty more than a hundred and sixty five different consumer

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<v Speaker 4>product partners, different different industry, different products, all over the world,

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<v Speaker 4>and we're seeing incredible excitement and as you say, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>product is selling out quickly. Yeah, this is movie related merchandise.

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<v Speaker 2>Doesn't financially have a material financial material impact on you guys.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, we haven't broken it out, but this is already

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<v Speaker 4>part of what we expect will be an uplift in

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<v Speaker 4>Barbie sales in the second half. This is where really

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<v Speaker 4>where it kicked in. And of course don't forget the

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<v Speaker 4>Helo effect on the overall Barbie brand, with the significant

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<v Speaker 4>improvement in consumer demands already in the third quarter, and

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<v Speaker 4>expect Barbie to grow in the third quarter and for

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<v Speaker 4>and the full year.

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<v Speaker 3>Nan you called it a cultural moment, and certainly that

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<v Speaker 3>means that it can polarize some people, at least here

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<v Speaker 3>in the United States. Got to ask about the high

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<v Speaker 3>profile people on the right who've criticized the film. Ben

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<v Speaker 3>Shapiro made this forty minute YouTube video. It's been viewed

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<v Speaker 3>nearly two million times. He says he destroys the movie.

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<v Speaker 3>He actually burns Barbie's in it. Elon Musk says, if

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<v Speaker 3>you take a shot every time Barbie says the word patriarchy,

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<v Speaker 3>you'll pass out before the movie ends. How do you

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<v Speaker 3>react to that criticism?

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<v Speaker 4>So, Barbie has been a flag carrier for diversity and inclusivity.

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<v Speaker 4>Barbie inspired the limitless potential in Every Girl, and the

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<v Speaker 4>genius of Greta is what she did. She took this

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<v Speaker 4>message you know that focuses on female empowerment and made

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<v Speaker 4>this movie appealing and relevant to everyone and people who

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<v Speaker 4>go to the movie, you know, whether you're a Barbie

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<v Speaker 4>fan or or you know or looking to be entertained

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<v Speaker 4>and inspired by by a modern day interpretation of one

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<v Speaker 4>of the most iconic brands in modern culture. This movie

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<v Speaker 4>Will Will Will Be, Will Be, Will be an experience

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<v Speaker 4>for you. And what we believe is this movie will

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<v Speaker 4>recontextualize the way people think of Barbie and what Barbie

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<v Speaker 4>means for the world. And we could not be more

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<v Speaker 4>proud of of the of the messages, uh and the

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<v Speaker 4>unique voice that Greta has in this movie.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, and I'm curious to does it mean that we're

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<v Speaker 2>going to see a Barbie sequel or is it a

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<v Speaker 2>case of you guys move on to other toys.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, we have an announcer sequel, and you know

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<v Speaker 4>we're still barely a week into the religion.

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<v Speaker 2>But how we journalists are, We're like, okay, now, now,

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<v Speaker 2>what what's next?

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<v Speaker 4>You know, you're not alone, You're not alone and asking

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<v Speaker 4>the question. But of course, you know, it's such a success,

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<v Speaker 4>such a phenomenal success. You know, of course we'd be

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<v Speaker 4>looking to extend, extend this. And we've always said that

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<v Speaker 4>our goal is not this is broadly not just about Barbie.

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<v Speaker 4>Is We're not looking to create single movies, but to

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<v Speaker 4>build film franchises for the long term. And of course

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<v Speaker 4>this is part of our strategy in terms of capturing

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<v Speaker 4>the full value from our intellectual properties.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, does that intellectual property be it in movies

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<v Speaker 2>or streaming series or what have you. How you guys,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, whichever ways you go, does that ultimately become

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<v Speaker 2>a big generator of revenues.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, we absolutely said that our strategy in capturing the

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<v Speaker 4>full value of our ip outside the toy isle can

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<v Speaker 4>be meaningful in success, you know, and we're looking to

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<v Speaker 4>scale this. This is not just about a movie or

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<v Speaker 4>a TV series. This is about participating in the highly

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<v Speaker 4>accreative business verticals outside the toy isle that are all

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<v Speaker 4>driven by big franchises, big brands, and in some cases

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<v Speaker 4>these verticals are larger than the toy industry. So we

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<v Speaker 4>believe that we have you know, the assets, the capabilities,

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<v Speaker 4>the relationship and with the Barbie movie, this really positions

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<v Speaker 4>us in a very strong way as a key player

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<v Speaker 4>that can participate in this in these verticals and create

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<v Speaker 4>meaningful shareholder value and build a meaningful business out of this.

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<v Speaker 3>You know. It's like Carol said, this has been a

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<v Speaker 3>busy week for you. Got to ask about the big

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<v Speaker 3>news yesterday the co president and CEO Richard Dixon moving

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<v Speaker 3>on to be CEO of the Gap. Let's get your

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<v Speaker 3>comments on that. How big of a loss is this

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<v Speaker 3>for the company?

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<v Speaker 4>Richard is a friend and has been a great colleague

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<v Speaker 4>and partner for me since I joined the company. But

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<v Speaker 4>one of Richard's biggest accomplishments is that we built a

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<v Speaker 4>very very strong team of leaders, of designers, of innovators,

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<v Speaker 4>of creative talent within the company and the executives who

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<v Speaker 4>take over from Richard. Between Lisa McKnight, who has been

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<v Speaker 4>the head of Barbie since twenty and sixteen and very

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<v Speaker 4>much manage the transformation together with Richard and the head

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<v Speaker 4>of Dogs in twenty nineteen. And Josh Silverman, who has

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<v Speaker 4>been at Disney for twenty years that is now where

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<v Speaker 4>he oversaw all of Disney's third party relationships with licenses

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<v Speaker 4>now running our non toy commercial activities.

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<v Speaker 2>So you're not worried.

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<v Speaker 4>Two world class leaders really taking charge, and we could

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<v Speaker 4>not be more confident of our team that he's running

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<v Speaker 4>this business.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, in ten seconds, gott to be correct, did

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<v Speaker 2>you give tips to Will Farrell? I'm playing a CEO

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<v Speaker 2>of Mattel.

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<v Speaker 4>I can learn a lot from him on the comedy side,

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<v Speaker 4>but I'm a big fan and it's great to see

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<v Speaker 4>him playing the role.

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<v Speaker 2>We congratulations and we're looking forward to following more of

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<v Speaker 2>this story and what comes next. Inon Cris, chairman and

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<v Speaker 2>chief executive officer at Mattel, on the phone from elsin Gundo, California.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>We do want to get to another company in stock

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<v Speaker 2>that was certainly in the news today, and we're talking

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<v Speaker 2>about Chippotle Mexican Grill. The stock under pressure today, down

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<v Speaker 2>the most since March of twenty twenty after second quarter

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<v Speaker 2>sales fell short of expectations and third quarter outlooks suggested

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<v Speaker 2>maybe momentum is slowing. So keep in mind that the Little

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<v Speaker 2>perspective stock has been on a run in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 2>It's still up what about thirty five percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, expectations, it's fair to say we're very high going

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<v Speaker 3>into this print. We got with us right now and

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<v Speaker 3>we're very happy to have him. Here is Chipotle COO,

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<v Speaker 3>Scott Boat. He's the chief operating officer there. He's with

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<v Speaker 3>us on zoom from Newport Beach, California. Scott, how are

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<v Speaker 3>you this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm well, thank you for having us on this afternoon.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's go through yesterday's numbers and you know what

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<v Speaker 3>did disappoint analysts? Give us your take on the quarter.

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<v Speaker 6>You know, we still feel like we had a really

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<v Speaker 6>strong quarter, up seven point four percent in comparable sales,

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<v Speaker 6>the highest margins margin numbers we have produced as an

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<v Speaker 6>organization at quite some time, coming in at twenty seven

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<v Speaker 6>point five diluted innings per share at twelve thirty two,

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<v Speaker 6>all really in line with consensus. We felt great about

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<v Speaker 6>the quarter, specifically that the comp number was driven primarily

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<v Speaker 6>by transaction growth, and so we're still excited about Q

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<v Speaker 6>three as we look at what Q three will be

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<v Speaker 6>for end up for our organization, where we're trending and

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<v Speaker 6>what we anticipate. It's still driven by healthy transaction growth,

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<v Speaker 6>and so our full year guidance still remains unchanged. I

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<v Speaker 6>think analysts were.

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<v Speaker 5>A concerned about the estimate comp sales estimate for Q three.

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<v Speaker 6>But keep in mind, there's there are other things that

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<v Speaker 6>we have in the pipeline. You know we have We

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<v Speaker 6>still have pricing leverage, which we believe as our economic

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<v Speaker 6>model still holds up.

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<v Speaker 5>We feel like the Chipotle.

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<v Speaker 3>Meanings you can use. You're confident you could still raise prices.

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<v Speaker 5>I think there's I say that to say, I think

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<v Speaker 5>there's still a room yet.

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<v Speaker 6>And then we have a fourth quarter lt O promotion

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<v Speaker 6>that we will launch sometime probably around the September time frame,

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<v Speaker 6>and so I say that to say, we still feel

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<v Speaker 6>great about the year. We feel great about the healthy

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<v Speaker 6>transaction growth that's happening, that's driving our comparable sales growth.

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<v Speaker 5>Uh, and the story still holds for the year. So

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<v Speaker 5>we feel still feel confident.

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<v Speaker 2>How much. Listen, you're the chief operating officer, so how

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<v Speaker 2>things work and operate is really important, and how you

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<v Speaker 2>can make the systems more productive and more efficient. Talk

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<v Speaker 2>to us a little bit about some of the automation

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<v Speaker 2>technology that you guys are doing and playing with. About

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<v Speaker 2>years ago, I caught up with your CFO, Jack Hartung

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<v Speaker 2>and talked about the amount of hours and how labor

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<v Speaker 2>intensive it was dealing with avocados, because you guys are

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<v Speaker 2>all about fresh guacamole and fresh avocados. So talk to

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit about automation and how that helps the

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<v Speaker 2>growth story going forward.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, it's a great question, Carol. I think there are

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<v Speaker 5>a couple of things that really fuel our economic model.

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<v Speaker 5>One of those, I'll speak to you very quickly is

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<v Speaker 5>around throughput.

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<v Speaker 6>And we still have throughput advantages that have yet to

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<v Speaker 6>be pulled through, and so we're working aggressively as an

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<v Speaker 6>organization to get back to the throughput levels and efficiency

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<v Speaker 6>levels we experienced in the brand back in twenty seventeen

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<v Speaker 6>through twenty nineteen, really pre pandemic, before there was this

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<v Speaker 6>massive shift to digital, and the new people in our

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<v Speaker 6>organization today aren't accustomed to the speed at which we

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<v Speaker 6>could deliver the Chipotle experience, and so we're really leveraging

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<v Speaker 6>that and flexing that muscle here in the upcoming quorder

0:12:57.280 --> 0:12:59.720
<v Speaker 6>to really get back to our throughput prowles.

0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:00.280
<v Speaker 5>Again.

0:13:00.800 --> 0:13:03.880
<v Speaker 6>It's also leveraging cobotics, where it makes sense to really

0:13:03.920 --> 0:13:08.120
<v Speaker 6>remove some of the routine, mundane tasks like coring and

0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:11.560
<v Speaker 6>fitting avocados each day in our restaurant to really move

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 6>that labor to more consumer facing engagement and creates a

0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 6>better experience for the team member and a better experience

0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:19.400
<v Speaker 6>for the consumer as well.

0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:21.880
<v Speaker 3>Can Scott, can your partner, Can you just give us

0:13:21.880 --> 0:13:25.040
<v Speaker 3>some numbers behind the automation the automation process when it

0:13:25.040 --> 0:13:28.800
<v Speaker 3>comes to peeling or incoring avocados for that guacamole, Like,

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:30.520
<v Speaker 3>how how long does it take a person to do it?

0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.240
<v Speaker 3>And how long does it take a machine to do it?

0:13:33.320 --> 0:13:36.560
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, it takes one individual about fifty minutes to complete

0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.720
<v Speaker 6>one batch of guacamole. That's starting with a fresh k

0:13:40.000 --> 0:13:43.280
<v Speaker 6>K case of ripe avocados all the way through.

0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:44.360
<v Speaker 5>The hand mashing process.

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.720
<v Speaker 6>So we think autocado can remove about fifty percent.

0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 5>Of that time. Wow, and really make it.

0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:54.480
<v Speaker 6>Increasingly more efficient to get through that process and get

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 6>towards more guest facing activity.

0:13:57.040 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 2>But you're watching on streaming and YouTube that can see

0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:01.199
<v Speaker 2>some of okado. First of all, I just love the

0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:03.160
<v Speaker 2>name of it, but they're actually seeing the process of

0:14:03.160 --> 0:14:04.000
<v Speaker 2>how do you.

0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.680
<v Speaker 3>Lose do you lose some of that vegetable? Do you

0:14:06.679 --> 0:14:08.880
<v Speaker 3>lose a little bit of it with the automated process.

0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:11.880
<v Speaker 6>You know, that's one of the things that we are

0:14:11.920 --> 0:14:16.360
<v Speaker 6>testing for jam is we think about autocado's effectiveness in restaurant,

0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.360
<v Speaker 6>It's got to be able to deliver on a few things. Hey,

0:14:19.400 --> 0:14:22.080
<v Speaker 6>it has to be able to protect this incredible ingredient

0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:23.840
<v Speaker 6>as we bring it into our restaurant.

0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.000
<v Speaker 5>It has to continue to be as food safe as.

0:14:27.920 --> 0:14:30.120
<v Speaker 6>It can and should be in our restaurants, and it

0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 6>has to deliver on our specification. And so if it

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:35.240
<v Speaker 6>doesn't beat that criteria, then it doesn't move forward.

0:14:35.280 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 5>And it's testing protocols.

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 6>But early days, we're very excited about the opportunity and

0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:42.920
<v Speaker 6>feel good about what the product is today.

0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:44.960
<v Speaker 2>All Right, what about workers? That's the other thing, right,

0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.160
<v Speaker 2>You don't want turnover. You want to train people and

0:14:47.200 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 2>have them stay. So one of the things many years ago,

0:14:52.120 --> 0:14:54.640
<v Speaker 2>I was very impressed with what was done by the

0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:58.920
<v Speaker 2>company to hold on to workers, to promote workers, to

0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:01.240
<v Speaker 2>keep them in the system them. So talk to us

0:15:01.240 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 2>a little bit about manager turnover and what you guys

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:04.960
<v Speaker 2>are seeing in the hourly turnover.

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:07.640
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, great question.

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:11.400
<v Speaker 6>I think those early investments that you're referencing, Carol, have

0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 6>paid huge dividends for our organization as it relates to

0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.640
<v Speaker 6>retention and turnover specifically, and then overall development.

0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:20.600
<v Speaker 5>For the organization. As you think about the growth that

0:15:20.680 --> 0:15:22.920
<v Speaker 5>is ahead of us. We are currently.

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:27.200
<v Speaker 6>Experiencing all time low turnover numbers for the brand and so,

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.480
<v Speaker 6>and that's throughout our salary rates and our hourly team members.

0:15:30.880 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 6>And so we feel like more and more team members

0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 6>are coming into the organization. They see the opportunity for growth,

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 6>advancement and to hit their career goals, and they're met

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 6>with an organization that has very competitive wage rates across

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.960
<v Speaker 6>the industry, across the United States, and is very competitive

0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:48.920
<v Speaker 6>in the industry and what I believe to be industry

0:15:49.000 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 6>leading benefits in total that really capture things around financial health,

0:15:53.920 --> 0:15:56.280
<v Speaker 6>mental health, and personal health.

0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:59.160
<v Speaker 2>Is there still pressure though to raise wages? Give us

0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:00.880
<v Speaker 2>an idea? I mean that such a big part of

0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:02.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, we're coming off of FED meeting yesterday and

0:16:03.160 --> 0:16:05.200
<v Speaker 2>we talked a lot about wage inflation and that is

0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 2>still sticky. Is that still you can't back off? It's

0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.200
<v Speaker 2>are you paying up more or is it leveling off?

0:16:13.480 --> 0:16:13.760
<v Speaker 5>Carol?

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 6>There's always inflation in the wage markets, as you're well aware,

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.360
<v Speaker 6>and we do we go through an air twice annual

0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:25.040
<v Speaker 6>merit process for our team members and that's a practice

0:16:25.080 --> 0:16:27.680
<v Speaker 6>we've had for many, many years in the organization. We're

0:16:27.680 --> 0:16:32.480
<v Speaker 6>experiencing about five percent wage inflation, which has anticipated and

0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.600
<v Speaker 6>built into our annual plan, but nothing extraordinary.

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 3>Do those benefits that you talked about that are not

0:16:40.280 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 3>directly impacting a higher hourly wage? Do those?

0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:45.600
<v Speaker 1>Do those work?

0:16:45.880 --> 0:16:50.280
<v Speaker 3>Do those create a stickier workplace? It's a great question

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:51.680
<v Speaker 3>is people at the end of the day, people are

0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 3>gonna people are gonna want more money.

0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:55.720
<v Speaker 5>It's a philosophical question.

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:57.920
<v Speaker 6>It's one that I talk about often, So thanks for

0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:01.640
<v Speaker 6>asking you question the question. If your wage rates aren't

0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.840
<v Speaker 6>working hard enough for you, then the benefits conversation never

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 6>comes into play. And it's Maslow's hierarchy. If you're not

0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.960
<v Speaker 6>meeting the basic needs of your team members and your workforce,

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:13.639
<v Speaker 6>you can have all the benefits in the world, but

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.919
<v Speaker 6>if they're not able to meet the needs of making rent,

0:17:17.200 --> 0:17:19.880
<v Speaker 6>having food on the table for their families, then those

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:21.920
<v Speaker 6>benefits can't work for you and your behalf.

0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:23.720
<v Speaker 5>And so what we try to do.

0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:26.520
<v Speaker 6>Is maintain a competitive wage no matter what market we

0:17:26.600 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 6>operated in the country, and that allows us to have

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:33.399
<v Speaker 6>a robust benefits conversation that really creates the employee. Value

0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:37.439
<v Speaker 6>proposition keeps people engaged, keeps them bought into our vision,

0:17:37.720 --> 0:17:40.679
<v Speaker 6>our purpose of cultivating a better world and looking for

0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.760
<v Speaker 6>more opportunity within the Chipotle brand.

0:17:43.040 --> 0:17:45.959
<v Speaker 2>All right, so just got about thirty seconds left here, Scott,

0:17:46.000 --> 0:17:48.959
<v Speaker 2>when you look at the horizon six to twelve months

0:17:50.560 --> 0:17:54.680
<v Speaker 2>feels a beat, a little cautious. How would you describe it?

0:17:56.440 --> 0:17:58.520
<v Speaker 5>I'll tell you, Carol, I'm really bullish.

0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.560
<v Speaker 6>I know this summer there a lot of US travelers

0:18:01.560 --> 0:18:03.399
<v Speaker 6>that are out of the country, so we're seeing a

0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:06.879
<v Speaker 6>little bit of softening and demand across retail and in

0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:10.119
<v Speaker 6>the hospitality space. I think it rebounds very quickly in

0:18:10.160 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 6>the fall. Consumer spending is still obviously a big part

0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:16.720
<v Speaker 6>of our economy, is still driving our economy.

0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:17.760
<v Speaker 5>I feel good.

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:21.440
<v Speaker 6>About where we're situated from our value proposition perspective. We're

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 6>still a low cost provider that provides abundance, variety and

0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 6>a very high quality, great tasting meal and affordable price.

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:28.840
<v Speaker 7>All right.

0:18:28.880 --> 0:18:30.600
<v Speaker 2>Well, so glad we got some time with you, and

0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.800
<v Speaker 2>our best to Brian as well as Jack Scott boat right,

0:18:33.840 --> 0:18:36.800
<v Speaker 2>Thank you so much. Chief Operating officeerch Potle Mexican Grill

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.880
<v Speaker 2>joining us on zoom from Newport Beach and why.

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:42.639
<v Speaker 3>Do these interviews always make me hungry?

0:18:43.760 --> 0:18:47.360
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us

0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:51.479
<v Speaker 1>live weekday afternoons from three to six Easter on Bloomberg Radio,

0:18:51.600 --> 0:18:54.879
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business app and YouTube. You can also listen

0:18:54.960 --> 0:18:58.080
<v Speaker 1>live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.280
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.

0:19:03.400 --> 0:19:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Kind of reading for this segment, I came across Tim

0:19:06.720 --> 0:19:09.200
<v Speaker 2>something from Voice of America and it talked about how

0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 2>climate change gives rise to increase precipitation, higher tempts, higher humidity,

0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:18.960
<v Speaker 2>conditions under which mosquitoes thrive and multiply. And so it

0:19:19.000 --> 0:19:21.679
<v Speaker 2>got into some new research from the World Health Organization

0:19:21.760 --> 0:19:26.440
<v Speaker 2>that even dry weather enables mosquitoes to breed, and so

0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:30.119
<v Speaker 2>getting into just a lot more mosquitos out there and

0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:32.440
<v Speaker 2>the implications of it with these weather patterns.

0:19:32.440 --> 0:19:34.760
<v Speaker 3>Here's something I didn't know until you told me. Scientists

0:19:34.800 --> 0:19:36.960
<v Speaker 3>say that dry weather makes mosquitos thirsty, and when they

0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.959
<v Speaker 3>become dehydrated, they want to feed on blood more often.

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:43.080
<v Speaker 2>Love That creeps me out a little bit, all right,

0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:45.920
<v Speaker 2>So let's get more on the implications of mosquitos and

0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:49.360
<v Speaker 2>their attraction to us All Connor McMahon. He is Professor

0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 2>of molecular microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:55.399
<v Speaker 2>School of Public Health, which of course is supported by

0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 2>Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg ELP and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 2>Connor is with us on Zoom from Baltimore. Connor, we

0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:04.880
<v Speaker 2>all know mosquitoes. We all hate them. They drive us crazy.

0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:07.520
<v Speaker 2>Tell us a little bit about the report that you

0:20:07.560 --> 0:20:10.400
<v Speaker 2>guys just did there over at Hopkins.

0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:17.480
<v Speaker 8>Yes, so we recently in Zambia actually created the world's

0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:22.720
<v Speaker 8>largest multi choice small test for mosquitoes. We all know

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:27.679
<v Speaker 8>from our backyard barbecues and picnics that mosquitoes tend to

0:20:27.760 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 8>target some humans more than others, and some of us

0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:37.440
<v Speaker 8>more alluring to mosquitoes than say, our partners or our

0:20:37.480 --> 0:20:40.680
<v Speaker 8>family members, and so we were really interested to create

0:20:40.720 --> 0:20:44.720
<v Speaker 8>a way to firstly test this. And what we found

0:20:45.040 --> 0:20:49.479
<v Speaker 8>was the scent of certain humans, the chemistry of the

0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:54.120
<v Speaker 8>scent of certain humans actually dictates how attractive we are

0:20:54.280 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 8>to the mosquito. And in this particular interest, in the instance,

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:02.680
<v Speaker 8>it was the mosquito that transmits malaria in Africa.

0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:05.119
<v Speaker 3>So it's not as my mom always said when I

0:21:05.119 --> 0:21:07.760
<v Speaker 3>was growing up, if you eat sweet things, you know

0:21:07.760 --> 0:21:10.280
<v Speaker 3>have sugary blood, and you know the mosquitoes, well we'll

0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:13.960
<v Speaker 3>get you. I'm sure you've heard that before, Professor. In

0:21:14.000 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 3>all seriousness, though, this is a huge issue around the

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:20.199
<v Speaker 3>world because of malaria, because of mosquito born illnesses that

0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:23.239
<v Speaker 3>affects so many people each and every year. So I'm

0:21:23.280 --> 0:21:25.439
<v Speaker 3>wondering what the implications of this study are for the

0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:27.840
<v Speaker 3>way that people can protect themselves. If we know what

0:21:27.960 --> 0:21:31.560
<v Speaker 3>attracts and what doesn't attract mosquitoes, how do we extrapolate

0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:33.560
<v Speaker 3>that data and put it to use in the real world.

0:21:34.760 --> 0:21:40.320
<v Speaker 8>Yeah. Absolutely, I think a really molecular understanding of the

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:45.080
<v Speaker 8>chemistry of mosquito attraction to human scent could be really

0:21:45.200 --> 0:21:50.440
<v Speaker 8>used to effectively inform the risk of being bidden by mosquitoes.

0:21:50.880 --> 0:21:55.560
<v Speaker 8>And as you pointed out, malaria still kills around six

0:21:55.720 --> 0:22:00.480
<v Speaker 8>hundred thousand people per year, mostly in Sub Saharan Africa,

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 8>children aged under the five years and also pregnant women.

0:22:06.119 --> 0:22:10.359
<v Speaker 8>So in addition to perhaps in forming a way to

0:22:10.440 --> 0:22:16.360
<v Speaker 8>prevent nuisance biting, we could also potentially use an understanding

0:22:16.440 --> 0:22:21.960
<v Speaker 8>of the chemistry of attraction in mosquitoes towards humans to

0:22:22.040 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 8>develop new solutions to combat mosquito born diseases and also

0:22:28.119 --> 0:22:31.160
<v Speaker 8>make new methods to stop them biting us here within

0:22:31.200 --> 0:22:32.120
<v Speaker 8>the United States.

0:22:32.480 --> 0:22:33.680
<v Speaker 2>So do we know exactly?

0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:34.439
<v Speaker 5>All right?

0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:36.679
<v Speaker 2>First of all, you're saying, if the mosquitoes don't come

0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:38.800
<v Speaker 2>after us, lucky for us. And it's not like that

0:22:38.840 --> 0:22:40.760
<v Speaker 2>there's something wrong with us in terms of how we smell.

0:22:40.840 --> 0:22:44.159
<v Speaker 2>But I'm just curious, is there something specific in particular

0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:47.560
<v Speaker 2>of what really does attract attract a mosquito to one

0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:48.720
<v Speaker 2>individual versus another.

0:22:49.880 --> 0:22:55.520
<v Speaker 8>Yes, So, our research suggests that individuals who have body

0:22:55.560 --> 0:22:59.800
<v Speaker 8>odor signatures that are enriched for our class of molecules

0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:09.639
<v Speaker 8>called carboxilic acids, which are typically chemicals produced by the

0:23:10.119 --> 0:23:15.600
<v Speaker 8>natural microbiota or bacteria that live in our skin. Individuals

0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:20.680
<v Speaker 8>with high levels of these airborne carboxilic acids, particularly light

0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:25.840
<v Speaker 8>forms of these corboxilic acids, are actually more alluring to mosquitoes.

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:29.480
<v Speaker 8>On the flip side, we also find individuals that are

0:23:29.520 --> 0:23:34.600
<v Speaker 8>not so alluring to mosquitoes, Individuals who seem to be

0:23:34.680 --> 0:23:38.639
<v Speaker 8>depleted of a lot of these corboxilic acids and also

0:23:38.800 --> 0:23:43.879
<v Speaker 8>enriched for some other chemicals that are also putatively acquired

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:47.320
<v Speaker 8>through the diet. I think this is a really exciting

0:23:47.359 --> 0:23:48.800
<v Speaker 8>area for future research.

0:23:51.000 --> 0:23:54.080
<v Speaker 3>What should so is there a simple message to what

0:23:54.119 --> 0:23:56.440
<v Speaker 3>people should and should need to make themselves less or

0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:57.840
<v Speaker 3>more attractive to mosquitoes?

0:23:58.520 --> 0:23:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Yeah?

0:23:58.800 --> 0:24:00.800
<v Speaker 8>So, I think this is still in a merging area

0:24:00.920 --> 0:24:05.879
<v Speaker 8>for research. The molecule that we found enriched in the

0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:10.280
<v Speaker 8>sense signature of an individual that wasn't very attractive to

0:24:10.640 --> 0:24:14.880
<v Speaker 8>the malaria mosquito was actually a chemical called eucalypto, which

0:24:14.960 --> 0:24:18.760
<v Speaker 8>is found in a wide variety of herbs and also spices.

0:24:19.640 --> 0:24:22.080
<v Speaker 8>This is an emerging area of research. I think that

0:24:23.080 --> 0:24:26.879
<v Speaker 8>we definitely need to perform future research and perhaps clinical

0:24:26.960 --> 0:24:31.200
<v Speaker 8>trials to actually evaluate the impact of eating certain foods

0:24:31.240 --> 0:24:35.640
<v Speaker 8>on how attractive we are to mosquitoes. And a lot

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:38.480
<v Speaker 8>of this is, you know, the source of a lot

0:24:38.520 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 8>of anecdotes that also get flown around as we were

0:24:41.720 --> 0:24:46.320
<v Speaker 8>talking about earlier. So there is no simple solution at

0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:49.880
<v Speaker 8>the moment, but there are protective measures we can implement

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:52.840
<v Speaker 8>in the interim to protect our cells against mosquitoes.

0:24:53.040 --> 0:24:56.240
<v Speaker 2>Is climate change making your job even busier?

0:24:58.400 --> 0:25:01.880
<v Speaker 8>Yes, I would say so. Actually here within the United States,

0:25:01.920 --> 0:25:06.520
<v Speaker 8>I think the the eight recent acquired cases of malaria

0:25:06.600 --> 0:25:10.240
<v Speaker 8>that we've seen in the southern part of the United

0:25:10.280 --> 0:25:14.280
<v Speaker 8>States tends to suggest that we name we need to

0:25:14.320 --> 0:25:20.280
<v Speaker 8>remain continually vigilant against mosquitoes. They do like warm tropical

0:25:20.680 --> 0:25:24.440
<v Speaker 8>weather many of the species that transmit diseases around the world,

0:25:25.280 --> 0:25:28.760
<v Speaker 8>So I think we need to maintain sort of continual

0:25:28.920 --> 0:25:31.240
<v Speaker 8>vigilance against mosquitoes.

0:25:31.480 --> 0:25:35.520
<v Speaker 3>Is the is the solution today, The best solution today

0:25:35.600 --> 0:25:39.120
<v Speaker 3>still sort of the most mundane, just mosquito nets.

0:25:40.600 --> 0:25:45.040
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, so mosquito nets are one potential way to stop

0:25:45.119 --> 0:25:50.119
<v Speaker 8>mosquitoes biting us, you know, screening your home, also cleaning

0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:54.920
<v Speaker 8>up debris and potential breeding sites in your backyard where

0:25:54.920 --> 0:25:58.280
<v Speaker 8>they might like to sort of hang out and sort

0:25:58.280 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 8>of relax. Perhaps the most practical way we can use

0:26:03.720 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 8>to prevent mosquitos from boding us is applying an EPA

0:26:07.200 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 8>registered insect repellent y e p A registered because they're

0:26:11.880 --> 0:26:16.000
<v Speaker 8>being tested for efficacy and also safety. There's a range

0:26:16.000 --> 0:26:20.000
<v Speaker 8>of different synthetic compounds like guns that are really effective.

0:26:20.080 --> 0:26:22.919
<v Speaker 8>The cardon IR thirty five to thirty five is an

0:26:23.080 --> 0:26:24.080
<v Speaker 8>active ingredients hunter.

0:26:24.200 --> 0:26:26.560
<v Speaker 2>We get to run unfortunately, but a lot of good

0:26:26.560 --> 0:26:30.400
<v Speaker 2>advice there Connor mc mannon over at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:33.480
<v Speaker 2>School of Public Health. This is Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:34.560 --> 0:26:38.600
<v Speaker 1>Room, a journal.

0:26:39.600 --> 0:26:40.600
<v Speaker 7>How about you let me drive?

0:26:40.880 --> 0:26:47.000
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no, no, please, I'll do gravel. Excuse me,

0:26:47.400 --> 0:26:48.120
<v Speaker 1>I want to drive.

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:56.560
<v Speaker 5>It's a good question, which is the drive to the

0:26:56.600 --> 0:26:59.560
<v Speaker 5>globe effect each other?

0:26:59.720 --> 0:27:01.480
<v Speaker 1>On on Bloomberg Radio.

0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:04.040
<v Speaker 2>All right, everybody, just about eighteen minutes left in today's

0:27:04.080 --> 0:27:06.639
<v Speaker 2>trading session, getting ready to wrap up the Thursday trade.

0:27:06.640 --> 0:27:08.920
<v Speaker 2>And what a different picture, certainly on the equity side

0:27:08.920 --> 0:27:11.240
<v Speaker 2>of things from where we were a few hours ago.

0:27:11.280 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 2>Had to rally and then it just kind of came undone,

0:27:15.960 --> 0:27:18.080
<v Speaker 2>and so we're looking at stocks pretty much at their lows,

0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:20.000
<v Speaker 2>and you know, there's a couple of things going on.

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:22.560
<v Speaker 2>Katie talked about Japan earlier, the Bank of Japan, but

0:27:22.640 --> 0:27:25.359
<v Speaker 2>also you know, we had some upbeat economic news here

0:27:25.359 --> 0:27:27.400
<v Speaker 2>in the United States and have a ten year at

0:27:27.440 --> 0:27:29.960
<v Speaker 2>four percent, so that's a big move up.

0:27:30.119 --> 0:27:32.600
<v Speaker 3>Let's get into all of this with Sarah Ponsik, financial

0:27:32.600 --> 0:27:35.480
<v Speaker 3>advisor at UBS Private Wealth Management. She joins us on

0:27:35.560 --> 0:27:37.399
<v Speaker 3>Zoom in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. And No, I don't know

0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:39.879
<v Speaker 3>if everybody listening and watching knows this. But Sarah used

0:27:39.920 --> 0:27:41.760
<v Speaker 3>to be our colleague here at bloom Curser.

0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:46.240
<v Speaker 7>I did. And I've got to say really quickly, I'm

0:27:46.280 --> 0:27:48.600
<v Speaker 7>so lucky that I'm here with both of you, because Carol,

0:27:48.640 --> 0:27:51.560
<v Speaker 7>I hear your checked out going on vacation, and Tim,

0:27:51.600 --> 0:27:52.760
<v Speaker 7>I know you just got back.

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:55.920
<v Speaker 2>I yeah, like passing a baton for a little while.

0:27:56.400 --> 0:27:59.119
<v Speaker 7>Yeah, great to see you, Bote.

0:27:59.280 --> 0:28:02.680
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so let's talk markets here because for as Carol said,

0:28:02.680 --> 0:28:05.199
<v Speaker 3>there was a big reversal today. Let's get into today's

0:28:05.240 --> 0:28:08.400
<v Speaker 3>trade because of the economic data that we saw. There

0:28:08.480 --> 0:28:11.159
<v Speaker 3>was a lot to love in there earlier today with

0:28:11.280 --> 0:28:14.439
<v Speaker 3>inflation coming down another signal there some good numbers when

0:28:14.480 --> 0:28:17.640
<v Speaker 3>it comes to the jobs front, some good numbers when

0:28:17.640 --> 0:28:20.720
<v Speaker 3>it comes to GDP. What do you make of today's reversal?

0:28:22.600 --> 0:28:24.960
<v Speaker 7>So when you look at the market reaction today, some

0:28:25.080 --> 0:28:27.240
<v Speaker 7>might question, Okay, are we back to a world in

0:28:27.280 --> 0:28:30.880
<v Speaker 7>which good news is bad news? And that sounds very strange,

0:28:30.880 --> 0:28:32.880
<v Speaker 7>but we all know what that means is just that

0:28:33.119 --> 0:28:35.600
<v Speaker 7>when we get good economic data, does that mean that

0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:38.200
<v Speaker 7>it gives the Fed more clout to keep interest rate

0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:41.600
<v Speaker 7>higher for longer, which the market might not like. So

0:28:41.800 --> 0:28:43.800
<v Speaker 7>that might have a little bit at play with what

0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:46.200
<v Speaker 7>we're seeing with the market reversal. But I would point

0:28:46.240 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 7>out that you really don't want to extrapolate too much

0:28:48.760 --> 0:28:51.160
<v Speaker 7>from one day's trade, because if we look at how

0:28:51.200 --> 0:28:53.800
<v Speaker 7>markets have been trading over the last month or so,

0:28:54.520 --> 0:28:57.120
<v Speaker 7>as you know, recession risk has been receding. I know,

0:28:57.160 --> 0:29:01.240
<v Speaker 7>we hear many more people nowadays talk about a potential

0:29:01.360 --> 0:29:04.719
<v Speaker 7>soft landing, can the FED pull it off? But the

0:29:04.760 --> 0:29:07.680
<v Speaker 7>market has been trading as though that might be the case.

0:29:07.960 --> 0:29:09.760
<v Speaker 7>So you know, all year long we've been talking about

0:29:09.800 --> 0:29:12.840
<v Speaker 7>this really top heavy market growth leading the way, tech

0:29:12.960 --> 0:29:17.320
<v Speaker 7>leading the way, small caps for example, underperforming. But if

0:29:17.320 --> 0:29:20.480
<v Speaker 7>you look at the last month, it's actually pretty interesting.

0:29:20.880 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 7>The Russell two thousand small caps have outperformed the Russell

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:27.880
<v Speaker 7>two thousand, up about nine percent. Meanwhile, the SMP, the

0:29:27.960 --> 0:29:30.240
<v Speaker 7>market cap weighted version of the S and P, which

0:29:30.280 --> 0:29:33.920
<v Speaker 7>really takes technology stocks, those megacat techniques and to effect

0:29:34.160 --> 0:29:37.000
<v Speaker 7>up about five and a half percent. And this hasn't

0:29:37.000 --> 0:29:39.200
<v Speaker 7>been the case all year long. If you look at

0:29:39.200 --> 0:29:42.520
<v Speaker 7>that equal weighted version of the SMP that takes financials,

0:29:42.720 --> 0:29:46.040
<v Speaker 7>energy industrials into account just as much as those tech

0:29:46.120 --> 0:29:49.040
<v Speaker 7>names it's actually outperforming the SMP. And we see those

0:29:49.080 --> 0:29:54.000
<v Speaker 7>more cyclical sectors of the economy like energy, financials, industrials

0:29:54.080 --> 0:29:57.720
<v Speaker 7>actually performing as the best performing sectors in the S

0:29:57.800 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 7>and P five hundred. So today, you know, it's a

0:30:00.480 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 7>little bit wonky seeing the overall reversal in the market.

0:30:04.080 --> 0:30:06.880
<v Speaker 2>Tim's but it's interesting, Tim is Mathew me so broadening out,

0:30:06.880 --> 0:30:08.880
<v Speaker 2>which is something we've been talking about, like over the

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.440
<v Speaker 2>last week or so, broaden out. But having said that,

0:30:12.000 --> 0:30:14.080
<v Speaker 2>you know, when you've got a ten year at four percent,

0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:16.000
<v Speaker 2>we'll see whether or not it stays there. I mean,

0:30:16.400 --> 0:30:19.000
<v Speaker 2>you know, moving into the fixeding, comes out of the market,

0:30:19.040 --> 0:30:21.720
<v Speaker 2>moving into cash, you can actually make some money here

0:30:22.080 --> 0:30:24.560
<v Speaker 2>when we're still not quite sure what the way forward

0:30:24.920 --> 0:30:25.720
<v Speaker 2>maybe might be.

0:30:26.720 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 7>One hundred percent. Look, we're big proponents of the fixed

0:30:30.000 --> 0:30:33.360
<v Speaker 7>income market right now and of bonds. We feel as

0:30:33.440 --> 0:30:35.160
<v Speaker 7>though there's still a good amount of risk in the

0:30:35.160 --> 0:30:37.080
<v Speaker 7>stock market, in the equity market. Yeah, a lot of

0:30:37.080 --> 0:30:38.880
<v Speaker 7>people are getting a little bit more comfortable with it,

0:30:39.480 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 7>but bonds right now are a great place to park

0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:46.520
<v Speaker 7>your cash. And you mentioned bonds and cash, Carol, I

0:30:46.560 --> 0:30:49.719
<v Speaker 7>would really caution investors if you have a lot of

0:30:49.720 --> 0:30:53.160
<v Speaker 7>cash on the sidelines. Great, you're getting five plus percent

0:30:53.280 --> 0:30:56.560
<v Speaker 7>right now probably on your cash, but remember that rate

0:30:56.680 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 7>is not going to be there forever. Reinvestment risk is very,

0:31:00.720 --> 0:31:02.640
<v Speaker 7>very real. So right now, if you look at the

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:05.760
<v Speaker 7>bond market, you know, all in yields look really attractive

0:31:05.800 --> 0:31:09.840
<v Speaker 7>across municipals, corporate bonds, and government bonds. So it makes

0:31:09.880 --> 0:31:13.720
<v Speaker 7>sense to spread yourself out, extend your duration a little

0:31:13.760 --> 0:31:16.880
<v Speaker 7>bit more, lock in those all in yields, and then

0:31:16.920 --> 0:31:19.600
<v Speaker 7>not only are you locking in those rates for years

0:31:19.600 --> 0:31:22.520
<v Speaker 7>to come, but remember, if we do see a reversal

0:31:22.560 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 7>in yields, yields coming down, you'll also get that price appreciation,

0:31:26.520 --> 0:31:29.480
<v Speaker 7>that negative correlation to the stock market potentially should we

0:31:29.560 --> 0:31:32.080
<v Speaker 7>see a recession or some type of softness there.

0:31:32.240 --> 0:31:34.120
<v Speaker 3>I'm wondering if there's sort of a flip side to

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:37.440
<v Speaker 3>Carol's question, which is this money on the sidelines now

0:31:38.000 --> 0:31:40.680
<v Speaker 3>having FOMO and saying, wait a second, I missed out

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:42.880
<v Speaker 3>on this twenty percent rally. I've been in fixed income,

0:31:42.920 --> 0:31:45.280
<v Speaker 3>I've been in cash. Now that money being put to

0:31:45.320 --> 0:31:47.600
<v Speaker 3>work and extending this rally in the stock market.

0:31:48.200 --> 0:31:50.959
<v Speaker 7>I think many people would argue that the twenty percent

0:31:51.160 --> 0:31:53.480
<v Speaker 7>almost rally we've seen in the s and P five

0:31:53.560 --> 0:31:57.120
<v Speaker 7>hundred is due to just that, tim. You're very very right.

0:31:57.520 --> 0:31:59.960
<v Speaker 7>I think we've already seen FOMO take place in the market,

0:32:00.120 --> 0:32:02.640
<v Speaker 7>and that's why we have seen performance chasing in some

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:05.800
<v Speaker 7>of the best performing stocks and best performing industries and

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:08.400
<v Speaker 7>sectors in the market. They just continue to lead and

0:32:08.520 --> 0:32:11.040
<v Speaker 7>lead and lead, and that's why we were talking about

0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:13.920
<v Speaker 7>this broadening. Now you question, okay, allre we going to

0:32:13.920 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 7>see more flows into the laggards because people feel as

0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:20.160
<v Speaker 7>though maybe you can't keep cha chasing those names quite

0:32:20.200 --> 0:32:22.600
<v Speaker 7>as much. And yes, if you look at the flow data.

0:32:22.760 --> 0:32:25.400
<v Speaker 7>I've looked at the flow data before, you know, across ets,

0:32:25.520 --> 0:32:29.200
<v Speaker 7>mutual funds, there's definitely been evidence of that tim of

0:32:29.640 --> 0:32:33.320
<v Speaker 7>money flowing from cash into stocks. Because yes, you know,

0:32:33.440 --> 0:32:35.920
<v Speaker 7>while it's great that you can get a five percent

0:32:35.960 --> 0:32:39.360
<v Speaker 7>returning cash, if you're someone who last year got nervous

0:32:39.360 --> 0:32:42.400
<v Speaker 7>at the lows you sold when say your stock portfolio

0:32:42.560 --> 0:32:46.640
<v Speaker 7>was down fifteen to twenty five percent, you went to cash. Well, congratulation,

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:48.800
<v Speaker 7>you've made five percent on your cash, but you've also

0:32:48.960 --> 0:32:52.560
<v Speaker 7>missed out on this twenty percent rally and comeback and

0:32:52.600 --> 0:32:54.480
<v Speaker 7>you actually end up in a worse position by just

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:55.760
<v Speaker 7>sitting in cash for so long.

0:32:55.840 --> 0:32:58.120
<v Speaker 2>You sound like somebody who's managing money. I'm just gonna say,

0:33:00.000 --> 0:33:02.440
<v Speaker 2>he's why. What's the big risk right now?

0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:02.720
<v Speaker 1>Though?

0:33:04.320 --> 0:33:08.040
<v Speaker 7>The biggest risk I think, you know, I would say

0:33:08.040 --> 0:33:11.880
<v Speaker 7>the biggest risk is probably that inflation does not continue

0:33:11.920 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 7>to come down. And inflation is a lot stickier than

0:33:16.000 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 7>most people expect it to be, meaning that the Fed

0:33:19.160 --> 0:33:20.960
<v Speaker 7>is going to have to continue to hike interest rates.

0:33:21.000 --> 0:33:23.280
<v Speaker 7>That's what the market is most scared at this point

0:33:23.320 --> 0:33:25.640
<v Speaker 7>in time, and if that's the case, it also presents

0:33:25.680 --> 0:33:27.080
<v Speaker 7>a risk for bond markets as well.

0:33:27.240 --> 0:33:28.840
<v Speaker 2>I think that's a really good point, especially when you

0:33:28.880 --> 0:33:31.520
<v Speaker 2>have you know, Jay Powell yesterday saying, hey, folks, you

0:33:31.520 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 2>know two percent inflation, Maybe we don't get to that

0:33:35.040 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 2>about two percent until twenty twenty five. So I'm looking

0:33:38.200 --> 0:33:40.280
<v Speaker 2>at a calendar. It's twenty twenty three and we're just

0:33:40.320 --> 0:33:42.640
<v Speaker 2>halfway through. So that's a long ways away.

0:33:43.760 --> 0:33:46.320
<v Speaker 7>It is a very long ways away, and even just

0:33:46.360 --> 0:33:49.080
<v Speaker 7>to the next meeting, we have this very rare eight

0:33:49.200 --> 0:33:52.720
<v Speaker 7>week stretch. We've all learned over the past two years

0:33:53.280 --> 0:33:56.280
<v Speaker 7>that a lot can change really quickly, you know, when

0:33:56.280 --> 0:33:58.360
<v Speaker 7>it comes to data and for the FED because, as

0:33:58.360 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 7>we all know, fet your Powell loves to say that

0:34:00.560 --> 0:34:02.760
<v Speaker 7>they're data dependent. He said it again yesterday. He'll say

0:34:02.760 --> 0:34:05.000
<v Speaker 7>it over and over and over again until it's drilled

0:34:05.040 --> 0:34:07.800
<v Speaker 7>into everyone's minds that they're going to watch GPI data,

0:34:07.800 --> 0:34:10.000
<v Speaker 7>They're going to watch the employment data. And although what

0:34:10.040 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 7>they said yesterday might stick today if the data changes,

0:34:13.080 --> 0:34:15.000
<v Speaker 7>so too, well their message two months from now, I.

0:34:14.960 --> 0:34:16.680
<v Speaker 2>Think I can't remember. I think it was on surveillance

0:34:16.719 --> 0:34:18.799
<v Speaker 2>this morn whether it was Lisa Bramowitz or one of

0:34:18.800 --> 0:34:22.200
<v Speaker 2>their guests, said that it's almost like j Powell when

0:34:22.239 --> 0:34:24.440
<v Speaker 2>he was at the podium, had a little yelly yellow

0:34:24.480 --> 0:34:27.759
<v Speaker 2>sticky that said data dependent, data dependent, Like.

0:34:28.840 --> 0:34:32.200
<v Speaker 7>I would say at every at every meeting, every press conference,

0:34:32.239 --> 0:34:35.080
<v Speaker 7>he gives it's it's it's ingrained into his mind. I

0:34:35.080 --> 0:34:37.120
<v Speaker 7>think it's ingrained in my mind. It's probably ingrained into

0:34:37.160 --> 0:34:38.839
<v Speaker 7>your minds now too. We hear it over and over

0:34:38.880 --> 0:34:40.879
<v Speaker 7>and overcap that and long and very old.

0:34:40.920 --> 0:34:42.760
<v Speaker 3>I was just going to say that, Sarah, long invariable

0:34:42.840 --> 0:34:43.400
<v Speaker 3>leg that's.

0:34:43.480 --> 0:34:44.160
<v Speaker 7>You read my mind.

0:34:44.239 --> 0:34:47.680
<v Speaker 2>He's called like garage bands, right, long and variable legs, And.

0:34:47.760 --> 0:34:50.240
<v Speaker 7>Could we could make a song exactly.

0:34:51.640 --> 0:34:54.960
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, Sarah Ponza, I have a great weekend. She's financial

0:34:54.960 --> 0:34:59.279
<v Speaker 2>advisor UBS Private Wealth Management Order Board.

0:34:59.360 --> 0:35:01.480
<v Speaker 3>Of course, Bloomberg aid great to check in.

0:35:01.680 --> 0:35:02.360
<v Speaker 5>This is Blomboy.

0:35:03.840 --> 0:35:08.520
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

0:35:08.640 --> 0:35:12.360
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0:35:12.360 --> 0:35:16.000
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0:35:16.040 --> 0:35:19.359
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0:35:19.400 --> 0:35:22.360
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0:35:22.600 --> 0:35:24.560
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