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Speaker 1: All right, and welcome into the Betting Pros Podcast. It's

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Speaker 1: time to place your bets for the twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: Belmont Stakes. That's right, it's the third leg of the

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Speaker 1: Triple Crown going down this weekend. I'm ros Seth Wilcock

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Speaker 1: and I'm joined by a couple of the best railbirds

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Speaker 1: in the business, including the host of the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast, Matt Brawl. Matt, how are you if

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Speaker 1: you round out the horse racing majors for twenty twenty five?

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Speaker 2: You know, I'm excited and this is actually going to

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Speaker 2: be I think a more interesting race than the Preakness,

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Speaker 2: even though we had the craziness with the Preakness and

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Speaker 2: how journalism came from behind to win the race. We

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Speaker 2: have two horses in an environment where we haven't seen

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Speaker 2: this really in terms of now a rematch a one

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Speaker 2: v one.

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Speaker 3: I'm psyched.

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Speaker 2: I think this is going to be a really interesting

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Speaker 2: betting opportunity, and I think the handle is going to

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Speaker 2: be up because the preck Die handle was way down.

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Speaker 1: Well, I'm happy to have you on board today. We're

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Speaker 1: also once again tapping into the big brain of Luke Minaldo. Luke,

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Speaker 1: Thanks for linking up with us. How are you today,

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Speaker 1: my friend?

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Speaker 4: Hey, thanks for having me on. I'm doing great. I'm

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Speaker 4: excited for a great Belmont, even with a small field.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of different possibilities for the

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Speaker 4: final outcome, which is incredible. I think it's really going

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Speaker 4: to come down to a couple of the big horses,

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Speaker 4: journalism and sovereignty like Matt alluded to, and just a

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Speaker 4: rematch like this is really cool when it's a rubber match.

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Speaker 1: One hundred percent agreed with you man. Before we jump

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Speaker 1: into the program, I first wanted to shout out everyone

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Speaker 1: who's watching and listening. If you're joining us on the

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Speaker 1: BP YouTube channel, thank you. Please give this video a

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Speaker 1: thumbs up if you enjoy this type of content. Also

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel if you're new. We're trying to

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Speaker 1: hit one hundred thousand subscribers this year and with your

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Speaker 1: help we can get there. And let's go ahead and

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Speaker 1: dive in, starting with post positions and what they mean. Luke,

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Speaker 1: two questions for you right off the rip man. One

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Speaker 1: for those newer tibetting ponies, can you explain how the

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Speaker 1: Belmont maybe differs from the Derby and the Preakness, and

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Speaker 1: also can you please break down some of these certain

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Speaker 1: gates and how they historically help or hurt when it

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Speaker 1: comes to the Belmont, and how they might impact betting

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Speaker 1: cards this weekend.

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Speaker 4: It's an interesting year because it's the second year in

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Speaker 4: a row that the the Belmont will be run at

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Speaker 4: the Big A instead of Big Sandy, while the renovations

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Speaker 4: are going.

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Speaker 5: On over at Elmont Park.

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Speaker 4: So usually it's it's a mile and a half, which

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Speaker 4: is why it's a test of the champion.

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Speaker 5: It's the hardest, longest race. This time it's gonna be or.

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Speaker 4: This year again it's gonna be a mile and a quarter,

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Speaker 4: which is.

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Speaker 5: It's just a different race.

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Speaker 4: It has everything to do with the smaller track at Aqueduct,

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Speaker 4: but I think it's gonna play into that's that's actually

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Speaker 4: that's why there's a lot of different scenarios.

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Speaker 5: Because it's not as long.

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Speaker 4: If it was just the original setup, I would think

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Speaker 4: it's gonna come down to just sovereignty or journalism, the

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Speaker 4: two late closers really battling it out. But because it's

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Speaker 4: a mile and a quarter, I think it opens up

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Speaker 4: to a lot of the front runners being to have

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Speaker 4: openings to have get out in front like Rodriguez, to

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Speaker 4: get out in front and just run away with it,

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Speaker 4: whereas you might not have the opportunity at the the

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Speaker 4: longer format. In terms of post positions, everything inside of seven.

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Speaker 4: All the winners have come from inside seven.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Matt. With this being said, are there any big

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Speaker 1: name horses and keyslots that you're fading or backing this weekend?

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Speaker 2: I mean, I wouldn't say that post position is a

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Speaker 2: monster deal with only eight horses in the field for

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Speaker 2: me at least, I mean, I think with the mile

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Speaker 2: on a quarter. The thing about the Belmont is that

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Speaker 2: it's been so chalky over history, but that's a different track.

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Speaker 2: Like generally speaking, the Belmont has been won by the favorites.

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Speaker 2: So if you look at this field and you talk

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Speaker 2: about sovereignty and you talk about journalism, I think you

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Speaker 2: have to look past those two and I'm not sure

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Speaker 2: there's a horse that has a bad post pasion and

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Speaker 2: say like, Okay, I couldn't bet that horse because they're

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Speaker 2: too far on the outside. Just given the fact that

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Speaker 2: this hole, as we talked about it is looking to

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Speaker 2: the inside, there's a lot of horses that have decent

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Speaker 2: post positions that are not journalism and not sovereignty that

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Speaker 2: I don't think you exclude them just because of where

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Speaker 2: they pulled the number.

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Speaker 1: Okay, it seems like the Derby is probably the most

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Speaker 1: impactful when it comes to post positions. Matt, is that

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Speaker 1: what kind of what you would agree with?

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Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's the field, right, I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: twenty horses in the Derby. This is such a smaller field, Like,

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Speaker 2: you're not gonna have the same problems getting around if

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Speaker 2: you need to navigate and get through traffic.

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Speaker 3: You don't have that same problem here at the Belmont.

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Speaker 1: Okay, And before we get to the odds, be sure

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Speaker 1: download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android.

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Speaker 1: bets across all major books in one spot. Easily monitor

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Speaker 1: your bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props,

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Speaker 1: and of course some parlays as well. Create custom betting

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Speaker 1: systems to find winning trends and profitable opportunities. Get a

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Speaker 1: free trial of Betting Pros Premium by downloading the app

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com, slash apps and activating your trout

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Speaker 1: on the upgrade screen. Now let's go ahead. General, Let's

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Speaker 1: break down the field. Coming off his win at the Preakness,

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Speaker 1: it's Journalism, who is eight to five currently as the favorite,

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Speaker 1: plus one sixty in American onds. We also have Kentucky

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Speaker 1: Derby winner Sovereignty back in the mix at two to one,

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Speaker 1: Bieza four to one, Rodriguez is six to one, hill

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Speaker 1: Road coming in at ten to one, Crudo at fifteen

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Speaker 1: to one, and uncaged the long shot at thirty to one.

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Speaker 1: Let's start by breaking down the overlays and the underlays.

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Speaker 1: Matt in your eyes, do you see any overlays offering

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Speaker 1: value or maybe some underlays that you're avoiding this weekend?

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Speaker 2: I mean, Bids is gonna be an interesting horse and

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Speaker 2: third in the Derby did not raise the Preakness. Have

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Speaker 2: brother of Mazed won theer three Derby Belmont Steaks winner

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Speaker 2: Door Knock as well with Living Pratt rioting. I really

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Speaker 2: want to see what that horse looks like. And in

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Speaker 2: terms of like value, it's tough, because again I think

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Speaker 2: it's Chalky. I think it's the two horses, and I

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Speaker 2: think we're gonna wind up seeing another battle between journalism

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Speaker 2: and sovereignty.

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Speaker 3: And so that's one two in a lot of ways

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Speaker 3: to me.

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Speaker 2: And then if you're looking for a trifecta, I'm looking

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Speaker 2: for the third place horse on this So to me,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I want to see where the odds go

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Speaker 2: four to one, five to one. What do we get

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Speaker 2: out of a besa as terms of as we get

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Speaker 2: closer to post position, then you can try to add

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Speaker 2: that in.

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Speaker 3: But given value, I mean there's some long shots. I mean,

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Speaker 3: Crudo's interesting.

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Speaker 2: I mean, if you like Bobby Flay, you want to

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Speaker 2: go with that whole angle you want to go, you

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Speaker 2: want to go with that. I mean, could be fifteen,

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Speaker 2: could be twenty to one, not a bad post vision,

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Speaker 2: right at number in, right in the middle of the pack,

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Speaker 2: not horrible.

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Speaker 3: But I really feel like this is going to be

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Speaker 3: a chalky race.

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Speaker 1: Luke, do you have similar feelings that it really will

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Speaker 1: come down to sovereignty and journalism at the end of

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Speaker 1: this thing.

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Speaker 5: I really do.

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Speaker 4: And I think Baeza will come down there and he'll

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Speaker 4: probably end up being the third that Matt was talking

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Speaker 4: about as he as he has been to these horses

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Speaker 4: in the derby, I really think maybe Crudo I've something

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Speaker 4: to justify, could be the value in this race. As

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Speaker 4: Matt was talking about the Bobby Flay Angel, Bobby Flay

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Speaker 4: has been in the winner's circle at Belmont before, and

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Speaker 4: Crudo is a Pletcher trained horse, and Todd Pletcher as you.

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Speaker 5: Know, on Belmont Day past amount of Belmont's.

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Speaker 4: There's been sixty horses that have either one placed or

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Speaker 4: show and he's been responsible for twenty six and a

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Speaker 4: half percent of them. So his horses will finish in

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Speaker 4: the money. And so I think Crudo it's going to

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Speaker 4: bring the value to this trifecta super efector and if

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Speaker 4: he were to go off and somehow win, then the

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Speaker 4: exotics just exponentially increase.

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Speaker 1: Matt, is that how you're pretty much playing it when

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Speaker 1: it comes to the exotics. Not everyone wants to get

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Speaker 1: invested in outrights, but exotics have become wildly popular over

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Speaker 1: the years. Is that what you're doing? Are you putting

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Speaker 1: journalism sovereignty? And then Beza maybe is that third horse

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Speaker 1: or do you have any other exotics that you are

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Speaker 1: going to be playing this weekend?

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Speaker 2: I mean this, this is I don't want to sound boring,

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Speaker 2: because no one likes chalk, right, everybody likes the bomb.

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Speaker 2: Everybody wants to see, you know, somebody come from the outside.

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Speaker 2: Everyone wants to see the long shot come in and

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Speaker 2: cast your ticket. But forty two point six percent of

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Speaker 2: the time the favorite has won the Belmont. So I

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Speaker 2: think if you're talking about who's favored sovereignty or journalism,

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Speaker 2: you can take your pick there and as you rotate

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Speaker 2: around if you want to do exactly doesn't have different tickets.

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Speaker 2: With those two at the top, you can rotate them.

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Speaker 2: But I really do think those are your two best horses.

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Speaker 2: And you're talking about third place, that is Crudo in Beza,

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Speaker 2: And yes, those are the two horses that I would

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Speaker 2: look to if you're gonna go for a superfecta, if

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Speaker 2: you're going to go for a trifectaga, what are you

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Speaker 2: gonna play out?

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Speaker 3: Those are the two horses I think can have a

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Speaker 3: say as this goes.

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Speaker 2: But just I know, this is only the second race

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Speaker 2: you know that we've seen outside of the Belmont at Saratoga.

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Speaker 3: But it's still got going to be chalky with these

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Speaker 3: two horses.

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Speaker 2: And frankly, the Belmont wants that, I mean the Belmont

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Speaker 2: wants to They're pitting this as a heavyweight fight between

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Speaker 2: two contenders.

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Speaker 3: And the field.

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Speaker 2: Not to say that they're not going to be involved,

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Speaker 2: but it really does feel like we've got two horses

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Speaker 2: on the collision course.

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Speaker 1: Okay, question for you here, Luke, like gun to the head,

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Speaker 1: is there a difference for you in the two heavy hitters,

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Speaker 1: Like is there one way you would lean or is

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Speaker 1: it just a sprinkle on both of them and hoping

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Speaker 1: you can make some type of money because it feels

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Speaker 1: like it's gonna be tough at plus one sixty right

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Speaker 1: now for journalism and two to one for sovereignty to

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Speaker 1: make really anything if you do go with both of

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Speaker 1: them on the outright.

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Speaker 4: You know, when we talked before the Derby, I said

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Speaker 4: that if journalism could win the Derby, he could win

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Speaker 4: the triple Crown. I would like to stand by that.

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Speaker 4: I think the biggest thing against journalism is the head

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Speaker 4: to head at the Derby. It's there's not a lot

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Speaker 4: of horses that could take Journalism's kick like that and

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Speaker 4: stare him down eye to eye and beat him. So

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Speaker 4: the mental edge would go to Sovereignty a little bit

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Speaker 4: bit bit there as well as the rest because he's

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Speaker 4: been off since the derby, whereas this will be journalism's

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Speaker 4: third race in five weeks. While and while that is

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Speaker 4: the true spirit of the Triple Crown, without the Triple

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Speaker 4: Crown on the line and without sovereignty having to have

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Speaker 4: run at the Preakness, I just it'll be interesting to

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Speaker 4: see if journalism can really find find that late kick

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Speaker 4: to battle them. And it would be cool to see

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Speaker 4: something kind of like Aladar in a firms where it

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Speaker 4: was just the last half mile or last quarter mile,

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Speaker 4: just neck and neck, just pace for pace.

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Speaker 5: And it'll be really cool to see if we can

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Speaker 5: get a photo.

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Speaker 1: Finish like that year you kind of on that same

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Speaker 1: wavelength there, Matt.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think that's a dream, right.

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Speaker 2: I mean that's if you, as the volks at the Belmont,

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Speaker 2: you know, what do you want out of this race?

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Speaker 2: I think it's exactly that where you have these two

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Speaker 2: horses battling it out down the stretch and you get

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Speaker 2: really exciting last quarter quarter mile between these two horses

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Speaker 2: and they get to stare each other down and go

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Speaker 2: after it. I mean, these horses are competitive, they both

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Speaker 2: want to want to win. They know what they're in

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Speaker 2: and the jacket and the jockeys do as well well.

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Speaker 2: I mean I think if you're a horse racing fan,

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Speaker 2: this race has far more intrigue. And even if you're

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Speaker 2: a casual, this race will bring you to the television

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Speaker 2: set before the Preakness, because all that cold water got

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Speaker 2: thrown on there. The second that sovereignty said I'm not

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Speaker 2: running and I'm looking ahead to the Belmont, it was

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Speaker 2: like okay, But then the Belmont, the preak This rather,

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Speaker 2: it turned out to be one of the most insane

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Speaker 2: races we've seen in recent memory, with the amount of

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Speaker 2: contact in weaving through traffic.

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Speaker 3: So I think we're set up.

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Speaker 2: The hope is that the race will deliver because of

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Speaker 2: the excitement that's going to be built up towards it.

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Speaker 1: and move into some long shot picks. Luke, do you

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Speaker 1: have any sleeper picks that we should consider jumping on

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Speaker 1: ahead of first call? Or is this just hey, we're

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Speaker 1: completely betting the chalk and leaving all the long shots

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Speaker 1: for another race.

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Speaker 4: I really think the long shots are kind of donations

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Speaker 4: in this you know, in this race, it's just it's

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Speaker 4: not you might you might get lucky, like like people

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Speaker 4: did with Dorknock last year. I think he went off

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Speaker 4: at seventeen to one. But you know, like Matt said,

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Speaker 4: historically the Belmont has been a favorites race, and especially

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Speaker 4: with these two, I guess you could see a long

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Speaker 4: shot would be like I said earlier, Rodriguez, and that

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Speaker 4: would take him. He's not even a long shot, but

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Speaker 4: that would take him. Bob Baffort, That's another thing. One

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Speaker 4: thing that gets lost in the controversy surrounding Bob Baffort

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Speaker 4: is that he raced. He trains all of his horses

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Speaker 4: to be as fast as they can be, and he

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Speaker 4: loves to get his horses out in front and knows

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Speaker 4: that the simplest way to win a race is get

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Speaker 4: out in front and hold the lead. And if Rodriguez

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Speaker 4: can do that, especially in the shorter format, I really

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Speaker 4: think that that would be the biggest most likely I

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Speaker 4: guess horse to outside of the top two to finish

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Speaker 4: number one.

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Speaker 1: What about for you, Matt, do you have a yolo ticket,

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Speaker 1: any big payout play that we're not gonna hold you

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Speaker 1: to that you might be sprinkling a little bit on

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Speaker 1: this weekend.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, not to tell like a parrot to Luke, but

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Speaker 2: I think he's absolutely right about the Rodrigaez thing. The

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Speaker 2: question is what do you consider a long shot? Because

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Speaker 2: where are the odds gonna go come post time for

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Speaker 2: Rodriguez five to one, four to one, I mean, is

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Speaker 2: that really a long shot per se as to what

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Speaker 2: we're considering winning the Wood Memorial. The problem is we

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Speaker 2: haven't seen but Reguez run, so like, we haven't seen

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Speaker 2: him in a race up against the two favorites in

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Speaker 2: journalism and sovereignty, So that's kind of an x factor.

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Speaker 2: So how does that horse run because he hasn't run

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Speaker 2: the two previous triple Crown legs. Maybe fresher, maybe you know,

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Speaker 2: more energy kicked down the stretch, So that would be

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Speaker 2: a horse I would look to. I mean, if you

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Speaker 2: want a Yolo ticket, leave sovereignty and leave journalism off.

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Speaker 2: I mean, you want to go crazy, just no take take.

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Speaker 2: If you knock off those two horses, you have six

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Speaker 2: horses left. Find a couple that you like, Crudo, Beza

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Speaker 2: and Rodriguez. I mean, find some order to go ahead

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Speaker 2: and maybe a box those three horses, and you're gonna get

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Speaker 2: crazier odds. I mean that's how I think if you're

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Speaker 2: looking for the most like shocking out of outcomes, neither

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Speaker 2: one of those two top horses place.

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Speaker 3: But again I think Luke's right. I mean, that's basically

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Speaker 3: a donation.

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Speaker 2: You're you're creating a ticket just for the fun of it,

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Speaker 2: knowing it's gonna lose.

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Speaker 1: No shot for on cage thirty to one. Is that

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Speaker 1: also a donation in your guys's eyes kind of?

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Speaker 2: I mean it's I think there's problems again, there's going

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Speaker 2: to be long shots. The Peter Pan Steaks came in six.

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Speaker 2: I mean it's it's Pletcher, so obviously you have a

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Speaker 2: name horse there. It did not run in either of

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Speaker 2: the races, so uncaged maybe. I mean again, it feels

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Speaker 2: like a donation. You can take the flyer if you want,

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Speaker 2: but I don't think. I don't want to completely throw

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Speaker 2: water on it. But yeah, kinda no.

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Speaker 1: The same for you, Luke.

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Speaker 4: I think if you wanted to go with a long

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Speaker 4: shot and only bet one, it would be on cage

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Speaker 4: just because of like the lottery ticket of odds.

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Speaker 5: I liked him a lot more before the Peter Pan.

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Speaker 4: I was looking at him looking towards this race. I

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Speaker 4: had my eye on him as because the Peter Pan,

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Speaker 4: you know, can be a good feeder into this race.

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Speaker 4: But I was very disheartened by his six plates run there,

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Speaker 4: and I was really actually surprised that they ran them

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Speaker 4: out here again for the Belmont.

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Speaker 5: Because of that.

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Speaker 4: To what Matt said, because it's such a small field,

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Speaker 4: if you did take journalism in sovereignty, album wanted to

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Speaker 4: do that moonshot, you could do a twenty cent trifecta box.

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Speaker 4: I think it would only be thirty six dollars and

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Speaker 4: it's most likely going to lose because both those guys

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Speaker 4: aren't probably going to fail to hit the board. But

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Speaker 4: it's not as expense to play what the lottery ticket

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Speaker 4: and Matt said, and you know, for thirty six bucks,

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Speaker 4: if those both those horses fail to hit, it's gonna

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Speaker 4: be way more than thirty six dollars.

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Speaker 1: Okay, well, gentlemen, it was an absolute pleasure chopping up

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Speaker 1: with you once again on this episode. That's going to

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Speaker 1: do it for us today on the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: Thank you so much for watching. Please be sure to

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Speaker 1: give this video a thumbs up if you enjoyed it.

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00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,120
Speaker 1: Also subscribe if you're new and don't forget to download

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00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,080
Speaker 1: that BP app and sink your sportsbooks today. For Luke

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00:17:28,119 --> 00:17:31,720
Speaker 1: Minaldo and Matt Pearl, I'm Seth Wilcock take care of y'all.

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Speaker 3: Also subscribe to our YouTube channel

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