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Speaker 1: What's up everybody? How are you welcome into a Monday

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Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice podcast. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolt. You can follow me on Twitter at Sports

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Speaker 1: Talk Matt. And we have reached the end of the

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Speaker 1: NCAA tournament. How about that this podcast I was being

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Speaker 1: brought to you by BETMGM, going to offer for you

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Speaker 1: coming up here in just one second from BETMGM that

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Speaker 1: you're gonna like. And I've got three more plays to

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Speaker 1: get to you here for the National Championship game that

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Speaker 1: I will explain coming up here today on the Daily Juice.

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Speaker 1: But a reminder here at the top, we will be

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Speaker 1: doing a live stream at seven thirty Eastern time four

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Speaker 1: thirty Pacific time off the YouTube channel for betting Pros.

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Speaker 1: I will be hosting it today. I will go through

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Speaker 1: all your picks and plays and thoughts. We'll have player props, recommendations.

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Speaker 1: This game is going to be heavily heavily bet The

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Speaker 1: limits are high, so the books are going deep. They're

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Speaker 1: opening up a bunch of different things. There are prop

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Speaker 1: bets available for this game that I've not seen before

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Speaker 1: in college basketball during the regular season. So it's been

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Speaker 1: awesome to kind of sift through them. We'll continue to

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Speaker 1: go through them throughout the entire day. I will have

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Speaker 1: interviews during my radio show during the day. People I'm

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Speaker 1: talking to picks and plays that they like, so I'll

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Speaker 1: pass that along. We'll talk about a couple of in

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Speaker 1: game parlays maybe you want to jump into if you

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Speaker 1: use bet MGM for same game parlays and stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: So that's coming up for about thirty minutes from seven

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Speaker 1: thirty to eight. Coming up tonight on Monday night on

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Speaker 1: the YouTube channel for Gonzaga and Baylor. The Super Game

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Speaker 1: is here, guys, the game we all hoped for, the

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Speaker 1: game we were all waiting for and wondering would we

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Speaker 1: ever get here because they've been on a collision course

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Speaker 1: for the entire year and Baylor had their COVID stoppage,

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Speaker 1: Baylor had, you know, some hiccups. They didn't look like Baylor,

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Speaker 1: but they have really come back strong. And then, my goodness,

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Speaker 1: in time, the Gonzaga Zags get a prayer shot from

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Speaker 1: Sugs from Jalen Suggs that goes in and knocks out

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Speaker 1: UCLA in overtime. We probably go to a double overtime,

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Speaker 1: and who knows what happens in that game to the

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Speaker 1: Bruins get here and we don't get this game. So

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Speaker 1: we'll get into this today a lot on the podcast

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Speaker 1: and break down the three plays and I'm making I've

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Speaker 1: made here on this game. But to remind you, we

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Speaker 1: already have one bet in here half a unit first

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Speaker 1: half over seventy six points that was giving out yesterday.

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Speaker 1: So that's the first play I've got going up today.

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Speaker 1: All right, So last night a two to one in

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Speaker 1: one night last night both player props do hit in

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Speaker 1: the NBA with Aaron Gordon for the revenge game for him,

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Speaker 1: which was really nice. And actually I haven't checked this yet. Well,

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Speaker 1: we'll do this while we're taping. It's I did make

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Speaker 1: a birthday play. You know, I was saying, okay, let's

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Speaker 1: make one crazy bet on my birthday. I bet Aaron

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Speaker 1: Gordon double double at plus eight hundred and am I

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Speaker 1: gonna get there? Probably not. We had Air Gordon over

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Speaker 1: twelve and a half points. He's got twenty two points

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Speaker 1: at the time of taping. Aaron Gordon over five and

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Speaker 1: a half rebounds. He currently has six with four to

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Speaker 1: play in the fourth quarter, So we got that one extra.

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Speaker 1: We just got there, but we cashed it. So both

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Speaker 1: those bets do come in. But the double double birthday

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Speaker 1: bet probably is not gonna hit. The plus eight hundreds

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Speaker 1: probably not going to come in. But the revenge game,

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Speaker 1: if you took points and rebounds, you got there easily

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Speaker 1: in a really big game for Aaron Gordon, although the

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Speaker 1: Magic may actually win. That game is the tight one

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Speaker 1: one point game between Denver and Orlando going on right now.

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Speaker 1: As we as we tape, we got the hockey bet

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Speaker 1: to a push four to two, the win for Mantra

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Speaker 1: for the Maple Leafs over the Calgary Flames. And like

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Speaker 1: I said, I like betting six because six gives us

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Speaker 1: push potential. And there you go. We got six push potential.

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Speaker 1: Five and a half was the number pretty much everywhere

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Speaker 1: else I found six. We jumped on map at Mayasuwan

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Speaker 1: twenty and it goes to a push and then the

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Speaker 1: Braves lose two to one. The Braves scored one run

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Speaker 1: in two games against the Philadelphia Phillies. Now that's just

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure who I'm more angry at right now,

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Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox or the Philadelphia Phillies. I'm oh

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Speaker 1: sorr are the Atlanta Braves. I'm owing to on both

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Speaker 1: those bets on both those teams. So I'm gonna pause

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Speaker 1: baseball for a little bit, and I'm gonna pause hockey

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Speaker 1: as well, and I'm only gonna bet basketball today. Let's

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Speaker 1: just get into the National Championship. Let's just focus on

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Speaker 1: one thing today and maybe we have a horrific day

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Speaker 1: or a really good day. In the Super Bowl, I

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Speaker 1: had a really good day in uh well, the NBA

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Speaker 1: Finals was okay, but with the last one game event,

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Speaker 1: we had a really good day. Let's see if we

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Speaker 1: can recreate the eight and old magic that we got

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Speaker 1: during the Super Bowl here for a four and oh

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Speaker 1: day potentially for the National Championship game. But before I

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Speaker 1: give you the picks and the plays, let me tell

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Speaker 1: you about the bet MGM offer. Here is a one

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Speaker 1: game parlay on the college basketball National Championship. If you

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Speaker 1: wager at least twenty five dollars, you'll receive a free bet.

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Speaker 1: How to get into this, You're going to log onto

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Speaker 1: bet MGM Sports on the app. You opt into the

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Speaker 1: promotion and place a twenty five dollars one game parlay

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Speaker 1: on any bet any college basketball game, which is tonight.

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Speaker 1: The Championship Game. Ten dollars in free bets to use

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Speaker 1: on any sport can be claimed once in the tournament

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Speaker 1: tonight for the National Championship Game. So make sure you

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Speaker 1: read the terms in conditions, the full terms of conditions

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Speaker 1: before you participate in the promotion. But twenty five bucks

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Speaker 1: one game parlay on college basketball will get you a

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Speaker 1: ten buck free bet, win or lose. You hit your

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Speaker 1: twenty five bucks win or lose, you got a ten

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Speaker 1: dollars free bet from bet MGM going on tonight here

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Speaker 1: for the NATTY, the National Championship Game. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: just talk about the side here, and I'm on the

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Speaker 1: first half over seventy six. I don't hate it if

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Speaker 1: you go to the game over. I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: a bad bet to make. But here is what I'm

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Speaker 1: thinking about this game. I think the Zags are running

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Speaker 1: out of gas. I think that. I think Gonzaga destroying people.

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Speaker 1: Think the days of that are kind of over. I

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Speaker 1: think this Baylor Bears team, which is recovered from the

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen crisis, Gonzaga is starting to run. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to say they're running out of gas, all right,

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Speaker 1: But Jalen Suggs is incredible. The kid is I mean, look,

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Speaker 1: if you want to tell me that Suggs is the

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Speaker 1: number one pick and he should be the number one

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Speaker 1: pick in the draft over Cad Cunningham, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to argue he's looked the part. Okay, He's been simply tremendous.

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Speaker 1: And I just think when you look at the way

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Speaker 1: these two teams are matching up with each other, this

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Speaker 1: is going to be a battle of a two point

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Speaker 1: team versus a three point team. And I often say

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Speaker 1: this when it comes to big games, you have to

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Speaker 1: bet the narrative that you're laying out, and the narrative

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Speaker 1: I'm laying out is that Baylor's guards are going to

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Speaker 1: outperform Gonzaga's guards. Yet the bigs for Gonzaga are gonna

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Speaker 1: have have a monster game. The bigs for Gonzaga are

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Speaker 1: why they are number one and two point percentage. They

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Speaker 1: are number one in shooting percentage, they are number one

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Speaker 1: in shooting efficiency, they're number one in field goals made

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Speaker 1: per game. The reason is because they shoot sixty one

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Speaker 1: point one percent effective field goal percentage. Because they've got

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Speaker 1: bunnies all over the place. Drew Timmy underneath on the

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Speaker 1: inside just kills people. He just dominates on the college game.

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Speaker 1: He's unguardable, and he kills the bigs for opposing teams.

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Speaker 1: Now that opens up shots for sugs and shots for

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Speaker 1: the guards. I'm not saying they're a bad three point

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Speaker 1: shooting team. They're not by any means. They shoot thirty

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Speaker 1: seven percent from behind the arc, but Baylor lives behind

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Speaker 1: the arc. Baylor is number one three point percentage in

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Speaker 1: the country at forty one point two percent. They are

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Speaker 1: team that has the number four in effective a feld

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Speaker 1: goal percentage at fifty six point seven percent. Because of

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Speaker 1: their guards. They run and they shoot threes. This is

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Speaker 1: what Baylor does. Zaga kinda. I don't want to say

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Speaker 1: they play slow, because they don't. They play incredibly fast,

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Speaker 1: but they go with backdoor cuts, they go to the lane.

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Speaker 1: They're so efficient. Their points in the paint is so

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Speaker 1: exciting to watch. It's so incredible. I think this is

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Speaker 1: twos versus threes, and I think Baylor is going to

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Speaker 1: have a really good night shooting from behind the ark.

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Speaker 1: If you look at three point percentage defense, Gonzaga gives

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Speaker 1: up thirty two point three percent. That's eighty ninth in

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Speaker 1: the country. Effective field goal percentage, Gonzaga gives up forty

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Speaker 1: seven point five percent. That's fifty fifth best in the country.

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Speaker 1: They've played well in stretches like the second half against

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Speaker 1: the Creighton Blue Jays, Gonzaga played really well. They can

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Speaker 1: play well at times, but they also can give up

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Speaker 1: a lot of open shots. And you look at the

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Speaker 1: game against UCLA, you look at the number of shots

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Speaker 1: the guard's got. I mean again, in the first half.

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Speaker 1: I was not expecting Ucla to be the reason why

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Speaker 1: we cash that over in the first half of that game,

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Speaker 1: and it was. I thought Gonzaga would get out there

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Speaker 1: and score forty five and I need, like, you know,

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Speaker 1: I just needed a good thirty two to thirty three points.

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Speaker 1: I didn't think we're gonna get like thirty six, thirty seven,

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Speaker 1: thirty eight points out of UCLA in the first half,

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Speaker 1: and that's why that went over so Defensively, I just

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Speaker 1: think Baylor can do a lot of the similar things

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Speaker 1: that UCLA can do. And I'm not saying that Baylor

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Speaker 1: wins the game outright. I am saying this though. I'm

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Speaker 1: taking the four and a half points, all right. It's

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Speaker 1: a national championship game. I'm taking the points. I'm on

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Speaker 1: Baylor half a unit at plus four and a half.

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Speaker 1: I would love five. Five's gone opened at five, that

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Speaker 1: number's gone. If it goes back to five during the day,

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Speaker 1: grab it, okay, But I have to bet overnight, so

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Speaker 1: I'm getting a worse night, and I'm not. I don't

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Speaker 1: think I need to buy the half a point. I

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Speaker 1: thought about doing that and going to five, but I

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Speaker 1: just have a sneaking, a sneaky suspicion. This is gonna

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Speaker 1: be an incredible game coming down to the wire, and

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Speaker 1: I think it's a one possision game, and I think

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Speaker 1: it's one way a coin flip Baylor Gonzaga. The thing

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Speaker 1: comes down to whatever team makes the last second shot.

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Speaker 1: Gonzaga got it in the first matchup. I think Baylor's

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Speaker 1: gonna be right there. I think Baylor is peaking. I

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Speaker 1: think Baylor has a really good shot to win this

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Speaker 1: game outright. And I'm not gonna hate it if you

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Speaker 1: come at me and say, Matt, I laid the plus

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Speaker 1: one seventy on the money line, I don't hate it. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this team, I don't want to say they're running on

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Speaker 1: fumes because they're not, but it's so hard. Remember the

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Speaker 1: Patriots in the Super Bowl, Remember that eighteen to zero.

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Speaker 1: It is so hard to run the table and go undefeated.

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Speaker 1: It's just a really incredible mountain to climb. I just

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Speaker 1: think that the Baylor Bears are right there and it's

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Speaker 1: not gonna shock me in the least if Baylor winds

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Speaker 1: up winning this game and Mark Few once again is

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Speaker 1: kept away from a national championship. It's the only thing

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Speaker 1: they haven't done. This is their second time to the

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Speaker 1: national championship game and they haven't won it yet. I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I think Baylor's live here. I think Baylor's

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Speaker 1: really gonna put do some big things here. I like

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Speaker 1: Baylor plus four and a half for a half a unit,

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Speaker 1: So we're going first half over seventy six points, Baylor

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Speaker 1: plus four and a half points for the line for

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Speaker 1: the game here. Two more bets coming up here. As

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Speaker 1: I told you, it's going to be twos versus threes.

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Speaker 1: And that's why I think Baylor is going to be

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Speaker 1: in this game. Told you about the Baylor Bears and

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Speaker 1: their numbers shooting threes this year. Baylor is insane forty

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Speaker 1: forty one point two percent number one three point percentage

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Speaker 1: in the country. Baylor averages ten made threes a game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: the number for Baylor made threes at Circus Sports tonight

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Speaker 1: here in Vegas eight and a half at minus one

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Speaker 1: oh five. I know Gonzaga is going to have to

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Speaker 1: take away the three point shot, and you could say

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Speaker 1: they're going to get out there and really push. But man,

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Speaker 1: I'm just going here with the trends. Like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know, Baylor in the first half scores thirty nine

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Speaker 1: point six points. Gonzaga scores forty five points seven points.

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Speaker 1: That's why we played the over seventy six points. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So if you want to look around and be like, okay,

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Speaker 1: you know, why are you betting what you're betting? That's

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Speaker 1: why I bet the over, same thing here with the

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Speaker 1: numbers I think up, you know, for a national championship game,

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Speaker 1: sometimes the teams shoot differently. Sometimes the site lines and

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Speaker 1: the venues and all the things that can come into

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Speaker 1: play here. But I'm going to go with the Baylor

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Speaker 1: Bears to hit a bunch of threes in Gonzaga to

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Speaker 1: hit a bunch of twos. To the first play is

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Speaker 1: is Baylor over eight and a half threes at minus

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Speaker 1: one oh five out of half a unit, they average ten.

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Speaker 1: I just need an average game, Okay. I don't need

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Speaker 1: an over you know, an incredible game. I just need

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Speaker 1: eight and a half made threes for Baylor here, which

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Speaker 1: I think that's their advantage to shoot threes. Don't go

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Speaker 1: driving in there with the trees of Gonzaga. Five kick

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Speaker 1: to open the shooters and hit threes. Okay, that's over

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Speaker 1: eight and a half for Baylor made threes at mis

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Speaker 1: one oh five. And the last bet, we're going to

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Speaker 1: a player prop. Okay, player prop. How about this Drew

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Speaker 1: Timmy in Vegas, it's twenty one. At other books is

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Speaker 1: twenty one and a half, but in Vegas it's twenty one.

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Speaker 1: Drew Timmy in this tournament against Oklahoma scored thirty, against

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Speaker 1: Creighton scored twenty two, against usc scored twenty three, and

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Speaker 1: UCLA scored twenty five. Baylor's got some bigs, and Baylor's

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Speaker 1: probably gonna double team him. Okay, but if they do that,

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Speaker 1: they're gonna open up shots for Jalen Suggs. And I

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Speaker 1: think the putback game is gonna be big. Like I mentioned,

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Speaker 1: this is twos versus threes. So who's gonna be scoring

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Speaker 1: the twos the most? That would be Drew Timmy. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Drew Timmy averages nineteen point two points per game. I

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Speaker 1: need him to have a better game than that. Numbers

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Speaker 1: twenty one. I need Drew Timmy to get shots into

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Speaker 1: shoot like he's been shooting ten of fourteen, ten of nineteen,

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Speaker 1: eleven of fifteen over the last three games for Drew Timmy.

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Speaker 1: I'm going over twenty one points at minus one ten

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Speaker 1: for Drew Timmy. Player prop half a unit here going

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Speaker 1: on here tonight for the National Championship game. All right,

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Speaker 1: So those are four plays for the National Championship Game

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Speaker 1: coming up tonight. First half over seventy six points, Baylor

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Speaker 1: plus four and a half for the game, Baylor to

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Speaker 1: make more than eight and a half threes at mis

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Speaker 1: one oh five, and Drew Timmy to score over twenty

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Speaker 1: one points out of half a unit. Four plays, two

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Speaker 1: units in play. Speaking of half a units, however, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to attempt something over the next couple of days.

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Speaker 1: You're going to get NBA player props out of me.

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Speaker 1: Coming up tonight in the Discord channel. We are now

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Speaker 1: twenty four and seven after going two and oh yesterday

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Speaker 1: on the player props for Aaron Gordon. So we are

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Speaker 1: twenty four and seven documented here, all on quarter units. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So because of that, we've built up a decent enough

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Speaker 1: cushion that I feel like it's not the end of

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Speaker 1: the world here to try to push this a little bit. Okay.

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Speaker 1: So we're up nearly four units. Okay, we are twenty

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Speaker 1: four and seven. We're approaching like seventy eight percent. Okay, here,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna switch to half of units for a little

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Speaker 1: bit here, Okay, I'm gonna bet a half a unit

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Speaker 1: on the NBA props. I'm gonna put it online like

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Speaker 1: a normal bet here, So the Drew Timmy prop. It's

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a dangerous bet because I'm into

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Speaker 1: college basketball props. But it's just it's easier just to

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Speaker 1: make it a half a unit and let's just have

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Speaker 1: some fun. It's the Championship game. But for NBA player

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Speaker 1: props in the Discord channel. If you're on YouTube, the

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Speaker 1: Discord link is below me. If you're not in there yet,

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Speaker 1: hop in there. Two and oh last night's twenty four

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Speaker 1: and seven. We keep on cashing, We keep on putting

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Speaker 1: up these player props and we keep on cashing. And

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Speaker 1: you guys are are welcome to go to the Bettingpros

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Speaker 1: dot Com NBA player prop cheat sheet on your own

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Speaker 1: and make your own bets. Okay, you can go on

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Speaker 1: there and do it yourself. I mean last night, I

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Speaker 1: was way down in like the teams for what I

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Speaker 1: was looking for, but I found Aaron Gordon for a

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Speaker 1: revenge game and they both cashed. I don't play the

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Speaker 1: number one. I don't play the number two blindly. I

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Speaker 1: look for angles, I look for value. I use it

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Speaker 1: as a guide. It's a great guy to shift to

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Speaker 1: sift through all the clutter that goes onto an NBA

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Speaker 1: prop night, which there's just so many different bets you

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Speaker 1: can make, and I just go and try to find

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Speaker 1: bet props that I like, and so far it's you know,

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Speaker 1: if it's twenty four of our thirty one bets, I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's insane. That's by far my best number on anything

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Speaker 1: on our sheet. The next best thing is now I'm

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Speaker 1: three and two on Nascar. I hit sixty percent on Nascar.

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Speaker 1: Everything else is below that. Everything else is you know,

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Speaker 1: on NFL props for fifty three percent on the NBA

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Speaker 1: we've hit forty fifty six percent and AJIL fifty seven percent.

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Speaker 1: But you know, other things like PGA were two and

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Speaker 1: eight this year. On the PGA, it's twenty percent. That's

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Speaker 1: not good college football. In the last couple of days,

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Speaker 1: last couple of games in the playoffs, we hit four

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Speaker 1: of or we were four and seven, so that's thirty

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Speaker 1: seven percent. So it's just in twenty twenty one NBA

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Speaker 1: player props. Since we started on this run a couple

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Speaker 1: of well two months ago, now, it's been really good.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna shift to half of units for a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Let's see what I do. Let's see if

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Speaker 1: it keeps cashing, if the run continues, because we've clearly

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Speaker 1: showed that, you know, it's worth the experiments. I'll do

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Speaker 1: it for a couple of days. If I fall on

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Speaker 1: my face and we start losing that bank roll fast,

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Speaker 1: that what we've I'll go back to quarter units. But

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Speaker 1: at least for right now, I'm gonna do a little

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Speaker 1: experiment for a couple of days in the Discord channel

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Speaker 1: half a unit for player props. Coming up later today,

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Speaker 1: probably right before the live stream drops, is when I

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Speaker 1: probably will do it. We go at seven thirty Eastern times,

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Speaker 1: so probably somewhere around like six thirty or so. I

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Speaker 1: probably have the player props in there, although I teach, yeah,

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Speaker 1: maybe like four or four fifteen, like probably right before,

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Speaker 1: just because I teach on Mondays at U and LV.

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Speaker 1: So I get back, I'll get here somewhere. Only four

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Speaker 1: o'clock is while I get home from teaching. So that's

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Speaker 1: just kind of my life tho. So how we do it?

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Speaker 1: So just FYI, if you are trailing the player props,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna shift to half a unit bets. You guys

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Speaker 1: may have already done that, but I'm gonna shift it

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Speaker 1: to myself just to see what I do here. After

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Speaker 1: the twenty four and seven start okay SO National Championship

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Speaker 1: live stream seven thirty Eastern on YouTube with myself Map

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Speaker 1: Parolts here on our Betting Pros YouTube channel. First tap

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Speaker 1: over seventy six Baylor plus four and a half, drew

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Speaker 1: Timmy over twenty one points, and Baylor to hit more

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Speaker 1: than eight and a half threes all tonight for the

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Speaker 1: National Championship game for Gonzaga and Baylor. My name is

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Speaker 1: Matt Parolt. I would talk to you for the live

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Speaker 1: stream coming up for bettingpros dot com. We're here every

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Speaker 1: single morning, being brought to you by BETFGM