WEBVTT - Benoît Cœuré On Central Bank Digital Currencies And The Future Of Monetary Policy

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. Joe, we like

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about money, don't we. And you know what

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<v Speaker 1>I realized the other day, there's Well, we've spoken a

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<v Speaker 1>lot about different types of money. So we've done cash,

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<v Speaker 1>We've done historical forms of money, We've done a ton

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<v Speaker 1>on bitcoin, ethereum cryptocurrencies. We've even talked about that time

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<v Speaker 1>you develop your own cryptocurrency. But there's one type of

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<v Speaker 1>money that we haven't actually done an episode on yet.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me more so. There is a type of money

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of straddles the world of digital currencies and

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<v Speaker 1>traditional forms of money, I think, and that is the

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<v Speaker 1>central bank digital currency or c d C for short.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, No, this is an interesting area because, yes,

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<v Speaker 1>alongside the sort of emergence of private, uh independent digital currencies,

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<v Speaker 1>we have seen central banks all around the world do

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<v Speaker 1>some efforts towards implementing their own or creating their own

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<v Speaker 1>piloting projects of essentially having yeah, digital versions of cash.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess, I guess you would say. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>China is fairly far along with it's endeavored but I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think any of them have really taken off yet,

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<v Speaker 1>but definitely an area that I think a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people are pretty interested in for a lot of different

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<v Speaker 1>policy And yeah, that's the thing is you wouldn't necessarily

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<v Speaker 1>expect this to be the case, but a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the digital currency exploration that's going on right now is

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<v Speaker 1>very closely tied to monetary policy. And I have to

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<v Speaker 1>confess before we start, I have never entirely understood the

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<v Speaker 1>concept of called central bank digital currencies. I've never quite

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<v Speaker 1>understood what the problem central banks are trying to solve is,

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<v Speaker 1>and I've never quite understood how they will function alongside

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<v Speaker 1>traditional cash and bank reserves and things like that. But

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<v Speaker 1>I'm happy to say I think we have the perfect

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<v Speaker 1>person to discuss all of this today and to get

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<v Speaker 1>into a lot of those themes. So we're gonna be

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<v Speaker 1>talking with Ben Watt. Cray was of course on the

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<v Speaker 1>board of the e c B from two thousand eleven

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<v Speaker 1>to twenty nineteen, and he's now head of the Bank

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<v Speaker 1>for International Settlements Innovation Hub, and that group recently published

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<v Speaker 1>a report on cd d c s, part of a

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<v Speaker 1>sort of task force that involved a bunch of central

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<v Speaker 1>banks exploring this topic. So I think it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a good conversation and hopefully it answers some of

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<v Speaker 1>the questions that I, at least and probably a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of other people have had about central bank digital currencies

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<v Speaker 1>for some time. Yeah. No, I'm really excited because I'm

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<v Speaker 1>with you in that um, I too have had numerous

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<v Speaker 1>questions about what purpose they serve, what the central banks

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<v Speaker 1>see as the reason for launching them. So hopefully we

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<v Speaker 1>can get a lot of questions answered, and also hopefully,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe we could squeeze in a few questions

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<v Speaker 1>about uh just the economy and monetary policy as well,

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<v Speaker 1>because of course, Ben, while having served at the ECB

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<v Speaker 1>for so long, hopefully we get some thoughts about the

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<v Speaker 1>state of the world today, which of course still an

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<v Speaker 1>extraordinary time. Yeah, and I think, weirdly there might be

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<v Speaker 1>some natural overlap between two currencies and what's going on

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<v Speaker 1>right now in the global economy. So, without further ado,

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<v Speaker 1>Ben walk Curay, thank you so much for coming on

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<v Speaker 1>all thoughts welcome. Thank you very much for having me

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<v Speaker 1>so in the intro. Joe and I both just admitted

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<v Speaker 1>to not necessarily understanding digital occurrencies from central banks, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>just to begin with, you could sort of explain the concept.

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<v Speaker 1>And maybe one thing that's always confused me is if

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<v Speaker 1>we were to see something like a digital dollar or

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<v Speaker 1>a digital euro, how would that differ two For instance,

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<v Speaker 1>me holding a euro or a dollar in a traditional

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<v Speaker 1>electronic bank account, what is it that makes that digital

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<v Speaker 1>money different to you know, align in in my bank.

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<v Speaker 1>So yeah, I mean, these are these are excellent questions

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<v Speaker 1>because you may wander, I mean, we're living in a

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<v Speaker 1>in the world which is already massively demateralized. Most of money,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean more than money is already digital. So might

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<v Speaker 1>wonder why why all of a sudden now we discussing

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<v Speaker 1>digital currency. And so we're here to discuss central bound

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<v Speaker 1>digital currency, right CBDC. And so let me focus on

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<v Speaker 1>on the on the CB in CBDC, that is a

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<v Speaker 1>definition of CBDC. It's money that is issued by the

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<v Speaker 1>central bank, meaning it's a liability of the central bank. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not the liability of a commercial bank or any

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<v Speaker 1>other player. It is digital, so it's not physical like

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<v Speaker 1>bank notes, and it's not issued to bonks as part

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<v Speaker 1>of monetary policy as we as we know it, which

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<v Speaker 1>is as bank reserves. Right, So bank reserves is as

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<v Speaker 1>if you think about it, it's money that bonks have

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<v Speaker 1>on their account with the central bank. It is digital,

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<v Speaker 1>so it is central bank digital currency and it has

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<v Speaker 1>been existing for for decades. So here we're talking of

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<v Speaker 1>any liability of the central bank which is digital but

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<v Speaker 1>not issued to commercial bonks as part of the implementation

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<v Speaker 1>of my type policy, which means to things. Either it

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<v Speaker 1>is digital and issued directly to citizens, so it's a

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<v Speaker 1>the equivalent digital equivalent of a bank note, and that

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<v Speaker 1>would be entirely new. Or it is issued to commercial bonds,

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<v Speaker 1>but not as a deposit on an account, but as

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<v Speaker 1>a token for instance, which gives give the answer to

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<v Speaker 1>your initial questions. So what's the what what the question?

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<v Speaker 1>We are we're trying to answer what the problem statement? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>there are two problems statements. The first one is what

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<v Speaker 1>happens if cash disappears, if citizens don't want to use

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<v Speaker 1>bank notes anymore, and how we happy if the only

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<v Speaker 1>way they have to pay for their expenses consumption is

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<v Speaker 1>to use commercial money money, should buy bonds to draw

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<v Speaker 1>from their bank accounts? Or do we want to keep

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<v Speaker 1>providing them with central bank money which today doesn't exist

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<v Speaker 1>in a digital form, so that the first question and

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<v Speaker 1>the second question is what happens if at the core

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<v Speaker 1>of the system, banks or financial market infrastructures would need

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<v Speaker 1>central mark money to set all the transactions in a

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<v Speaker 1>way that is not an account at the central bank,

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<v Speaker 1>and that could be a token for instance. So imagine

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<v Speaker 1>a future, maybe a near future, where some financial market

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructures would be um transacting exchanging tokens on on d

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<v Speaker 1>l t s. Right, if you want to keep settling

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<v Speaker 1>these transactions in central mark money, then you need a

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<v Speaker 1>way to either connect the DALT with the traditional payment

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<v Speaker 1>infrastructure or to issue a central bank token to the

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<v Speaker 1>d LT And that's what we call wholesale CBDC. So

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<v Speaker 1>there are two answers. Either it's whole sale CBDC because

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<v Speaker 1>the technology underlying financial infrastructures is changing, or it's retail

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<v Speaker 1>CBDC because in some places at least cash may be disappearing.

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<v Speaker 1>So these are two separate questions at both ends of

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<v Speaker 1>the financial system, at the front end and at the

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<v Speaker 1>back end. First of all, that was very helpful, just

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<v Speaker 1>sort of overview of what you're doing or what the

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<v Speaker 1>vision is. I guess one way that I sort of

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<v Speaker 1>think about it or here, what you're saying is, rather

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<v Speaker 1>than seeing the analogy as Okay, here's a money. If

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<v Speaker 1>I have it in a bank, it's a liability of

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<v Speaker 1>a bank. If I have it in some sort of

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<v Speaker 1>payment app like PayPal or Venmo, that dollar or that

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<v Speaker 1>euro is a liability of PayPal or Venmo. This is

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<v Speaker 1>more like cash, something that I hold in the wallet,

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<v Speaker 1>and something that's a direct liability of the central bank.

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<v Speaker 1>So that part makes sense to me. What is the

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<v Speaker 1>fundamental advantage, however, of doing this? So we have cash

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<v Speaker 1>that currently exists, we have online money or sort of

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<v Speaker 1>bank liability money as you described it, What from a

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<v Speaker 1>policy standpoint would in your view, the creation and widespread

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<v Speaker 1>adoption of a digital euro or a digital dollar or

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<v Speaker 1>a digital pound. What are the advantages that you see

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<v Speaker 1>for governments and central banks to actually launch them. So

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<v Speaker 1>my my answer, and that might might might be surprising

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<v Speaker 1>coming from a central banker, but that my answer would

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<v Speaker 1>be that it's not even a policy discussion. It is

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<v Speaker 1>a political discussion. The key question here is are we

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<v Speaker 1>satisfied if all money used by citizens for their daily

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<v Speaker 1>transactions is commercial money? That is how we satisfied if

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<v Speaker 1>the whole functioning, the daily functioning of the economy is

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<v Speaker 1>a at the end of conversation between citizens and and banks,

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<v Speaker 1>right or do we want the central bank as a

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<v Speaker 1>public institution to be part of it? And what's very

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<v Speaker 1>important here and also for the for the rest of

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<v Speaker 1>our discussion, is that the answer might be different in

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<v Speaker 1>different places. That is, in some places citizens may trust

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<v Speaker 1>and in many places I guess citizens would trust the

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<v Speaker 1>central bank better than visa, master card or Facebook or

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<v Speaker 1>city bank. Right in other places or in other corners

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<v Speaker 1>of societies, that might not be the case. And you

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<v Speaker 1>will find many people who who trust city bank more

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<v Speaker 1>better than the central bank, and you would you you

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<v Speaker 1>find people who trust bitcoin more better than the dollars

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<v Speaker 1>or the yero. And so the conclusion here is that

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<v Speaker 1>we have to let to let people decide for themselves

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<v Speaker 1>which kind of money they want to use, provided that

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<v Speaker 1>they are well informed on the risks, on the on

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<v Speaker 1>what on the implications. But the emerging consensus is that

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<v Speaker 1>a substantial fraction of society will ask to keep that

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<v Speaker 1>contact with the central bank, which is the ability to

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<v Speaker 1>use a direct liability on a public institution under parliamentary

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<v Speaker 1>supervision as part of a political system, and if we

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<v Speaker 1>want to keep that kind of access, then we need

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<v Speaker 1>to do CBDC. So that's really interesting because you've framed

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<v Speaker 1>more direct contact between people and the central bank through

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<v Speaker 1>cb dcs as an advantage or something desirable. But I

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<v Speaker 1>know one of the criticisms of digital money is that

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<v Speaker 1>there is a concern that you're in effect reduced in

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<v Speaker 1>the role of commercial banks in the economy, and that

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<v Speaker 1>might have unintended consequences for the transmission of monetary policy

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<v Speaker 1>or the way the financial system actually works. Some people

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<v Speaker 1>have talked about the potential to increase bank runs. For instance,

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<v Speaker 1>if people have a central bank issued alternative that's seen

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<v Speaker 1>as a safe place to park their money, they might

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<v Speaker 1>fly fly out of bank deposits and and go into

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<v Speaker 1>digital money. How are you thinking about about that particular issue,

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<v Speaker 1>How are you thinking about how CBDC might impact the

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<v Speaker 1>financial system as it exists today. So that's a that's

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<v Speaker 1>a very important point, Tracy, And that's that's also why

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<v Speaker 1>why I'm saying that we need an ecosystem right and contact.

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<v Speaker 1>What what people sometimes hear or think the there is

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<v Speaker 1>no intention by central bonds to to have a monopoly

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<v Speaker 1>on all kinds of money. The economy is are operated

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<v Speaker 1>with commercial money today or when you when you when

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<v Speaker 1>you buy a beer in a bar, it's very very

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<v Speaker 1>likely that you're going to pay either with a credit

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<v Speaker 1>card or with a telephone, and that will be eventually

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<v Speaker 1>coming from your bank account, and it's commercial money, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not a claim on the central mark, and we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to keep it like that, right, So so we'll we'll, we'll, we'll,

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<v Speaker 1>we'll keep an ecosystem where you'll have different forms of

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<v Speaker 1>different means of payments, different forms of money, and most

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<v Speaker 1>of it will be commercial. The question is do we

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<v Speaker 1>want to keep central mark money at the heart of

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<v Speaker 1>the system to uh to to to make it stable? Right,

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<v Speaker 1>And one of the of the key considerations that we

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<v Speaker 1>we have in thinking about the future ecosystem is exactly

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<v Speaker 1>what you mentioned, which is we don't want CBDC to

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<v Speaker 1>to kill bonks, right. We don't want to go to

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<v Speaker 1>the to the extreme of a system where all economic

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<v Speaker 1>players would use CBDC um and bonds would at best

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<v Speaker 1>be kinds of conduits would buy assets or extend credits

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<v Speaker 1>and and fund on the on capital markets, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>narrow banks or or a system of sovereign money at

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<v Speaker 1>that it's sometimes called or in Switzerland had a vote,

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<v Speaker 1>as you may remember, on some something called Folgal which

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<v Speaker 1>was rejected. So that's people that that's something that most

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<v Speaker 1>people don't runt, and that's something that regulators and sattle

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<v Speaker 1>bankers don't runt because they see your value in the

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<v Speaker 1>existence of commercial bonds as institution who take risk, who

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<v Speaker 1>transform credit, who take maturity risk and credit risk uh

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<v Speaker 1>and would do all kinds of financial intermediation in the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't want to kill that system. And so there

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<v Speaker 1>is an active discussion on how to to mitigate the

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<v Speaker 1>kind of risks your highlighting treacy, which is that CBDC

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<v Speaker 1>would take over bank deposits and would would would make

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<v Speaker 1>banks more vulnerable. And there are different answers. We can

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<v Speaker 1>go into the details if you wish, And one of

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.439
<v Speaker 1>the of the important discussions will have in the coming

0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:53.680
<v Speaker 1>months and years is what's the best answer if we

0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.520
<v Speaker 1>don't want this to happen. I want to ask take

0:13:57.559 --> 0:13:59.640
<v Speaker 1>it from the other angle. I mean, one of the

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.880
<v Speaker 1>nie things about cash as we know it. If I

0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:06.200
<v Speaker 1>pay for something in the bar, if I you know,

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.400
<v Speaker 1>go out and meet up with friends and want to

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:11.839
<v Speaker 1>split a check somewhere or anything else. Is that it's

0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:16.400
<v Speaker 1>anonymous person a or somewhat anonymous person A can pay

0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:20.520
<v Speaker 1>something to person be without person ce knowing about it.

0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:25.800
<v Speaker 1>And they are all kinds of reasons why people prize privacy.

0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious if in your vision of a c B

0:14:29.160 --> 0:14:33.000
<v Speaker 1>d C A, would two people be able to make

0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:37.480
<v Speaker 1>a transaction without some third party entity having a sort

0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of centralized knowledge about who just made that transaction. And

0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:46.640
<v Speaker 1>I'm curious in your conversations around with regulators and central bankers,

0:14:46.640 --> 0:14:49.200
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure you talked to a lot of different groups,

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:53.120
<v Speaker 1>law enforcement agencies about their concerns. Finn send you think

0:14:53.120 --> 0:14:57.200
<v Speaker 1>about know your customer, anti monitor uh, anti money laundering laws,

0:14:57.440 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 1>And I'm curious whether in your converse stations and consultations

0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:07.680
<v Speaker 1>we've also talked to privacy groups about their concern So, UM, yeah,

0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:11.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean we've been doing that in particular when last year, UM,

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.920
<v Speaker 1>there was a related discussion not on on CBDC, but

0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>on stable coins right um, start starting from liberal right um,

0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:25.000
<v Speaker 1>And there has been an active discussion in policy circles

0:15:25.120 --> 0:15:28.000
<v Speaker 1>on how to regulate stable coins and the FSB just

0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:31.800
<v Speaker 1>came with a report on that with with guidelines on

0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>on a stable kind of regulation. And privacy is also

0:15:34.600 --> 0:15:37.320
<v Speaker 1>a key, a key issue. And by the way, something

0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.920
<v Speaker 1>we found out that financial regulators don't often talk to

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:45.360
<v Speaker 1>to privacy regulators or two privacy groups. And so that's uh,

0:15:45.440 --> 0:15:47.800
<v Speaker 1>let's say, it might sound like a kind of an

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:51.080
<v Speaker 1>ancillary discussion, but it's actually very important that this this

0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:54.600
<v Speaker 1>kind of technical innovation forces us to also to read

0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.760
<v Speaker 1>things the way we we do regulation and to connect

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:02.200
<v Speaker 1>to connect silos right which which until recently weren't connected

0:16:02.200 --> 0:16:04.920
<v Speaker 1>at all. And so and so we are talking now

0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:08.920
<v Speaker 1>with privacy regulators and with privacy groups. And that's an

0:16:08.920 --> 0:16:12.360
<v Speaker 1>instance of choices that have to make that have to

0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:14.640
<v Speaker 1>be made by by society and and and through a

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.920
<v Speaker 1>political process. Because on the one hand, you have a demand,

0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:21.200
<v Speaker 1>you have demand for privacy which is there and which

0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:25.000
<v Speaker 1>is absolutely legitimate, and which is already in some places

0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.640
<v Speaker 1>like Europe very much unshrined and had hard wired into

0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:31.920
<v Speaker 1>lower with with with GDP are in particular. But on

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.640
<v Speaker 1>the other hand, you also have a regulation and and

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:37.840
<v Speaker 1>and and and laws against money wandering, against the financing

0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of terrorism, etcetera, which are equally important, right, and so

0:16:43.080 --> 0:16:45.680
<v Speaker 1>so any any CBDC architecture will have to strike a

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 1>balance between these two aspirations and the exact the way

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 1>we turn the dial. I imagine you should be a

0:16:53.160 --> 0:16:56.040
<v Speaker 1>political discussion, because I I don't see how central bankers

0:16:56.480 --> 0:16:58.760
<v Speaker 1>or bank supervisors could decide on on the on that

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.040
<v Speaker 1>kind of things. It has to be political discussion. And

0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.920
<v Speaker 1>again there are ways to reconcile. So for instance, I'm

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.000
<v Speaker 1>just giving an example, so I'm not I'm not saying

0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:09.919
<v Speaker 1>that's the way to go, but just to illustrate, you

0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:15.120
<v Speaker 1>could imagine a system where CBDC would be distributed by banks. Right,

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:17.840
<v Speaker 1>so the front end would be banks. You would keep

0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:20.280
<v Speaker 1>talking to your bank. You wouldn't you wouldn't go directly

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 1>to the to the FED or the HKm, MAY or

0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:24.840
<v Speaker 1>the or the E c B. You would get your

0:17:24.880 --> 0:17:27.400
<v Speaker 1>CBDC from your bank, just as you get your bank

0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:30.080
<v Speaker 1>notes from your A T M. So exactly the same

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.400
<v Speaker 1>as today. Banks would buy a given quantity of CBDC

0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.479
<v Speaker 1>from the central Bank using their bank reserves, just as

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:40.600
<v Speaker 1>they buy bank knows today. And see, the central bank

0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:44.680
<v Speaker 1>could regulate the amount of CBDC for monetary policy purposes,

0:17:44.680 --> 0:17:47.560
<v Speaker 1>but the central bank would not know exactly to which

0:17:47.600 --> 0:17:51.840
<v Speaker 1>CBDC has been distributed, and that would be subject to

0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:55.440
<v Speaker 1>m L and c FT and and generally no customers

0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:58.879
<v Speaker 1>diligence and I know your client client rules just as

0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:01.480
<v Speaker 1>any transaction today. So that's a possible way that do

0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 1>reconcile different aspects. You mentioned Libra briefly, which is Facebook's

0:18:22.040 --> 0:18:25.640
<v Speaker 1>attempt at a at a stable coin, and this sort

0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:28.560
<v Speaker 1>of reminds me of of another big discussion when it

0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:32.080
<v Speaker 1>comes to c b d C, and I guess part

0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:34.600
<v Speaker 1>of it is that if you're going to launch digital money,

0:18:34.640 --> 0:18:36.639
<v Speaker 1>even if you're a central bank, you're going to have

0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.320
<v Speaker 1>to have some sort of payment system that goes along

0:18:39.359 --> 0:18:41.639
<v Speaker 1>with it. And so central banks are going to have

0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:45.399
<v Speaker 1>to decide whether to build and run their own payment

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 1>systems or maybe to team up with companies in the

0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.680
<v Speaker 1>private sector who can do that for them. I'm curious.

0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>Private corporations like Facebook are pretty good head technology. How

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:04.199
<v Speaker 1>do central bank compete against companies like that like a Facebook,

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.960
<v Speaker 1>or how do they work together with them for the

0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:11.680
<v Speaker 1>payment system. So we shouldn't be competing against against Facebook

0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:13.919
<v Speaker 1>because we are not in the same line of business right,

0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.520
<v Speaker 1>we're absolutely not in the same line of business and

0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:19.159
<v Speaker 1>and in the sense that's so if if I may

0:19:19.160 --> 0:19:22.199
<v Speaker 1>take a step back, that's that's exactly why these um

0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>You mentioned the report which was issued by seven central

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:29.200
<v Speaker 1>banks together with the bis UM, and that's a working

0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 1>group I was culturing with a certainty from the Bank

0:19:32.040 --> 0:19:36.640
<v Speaker 1>of England. It started exactly with the consideration that we

0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:40.040
<v Speaker 1>we central bankers, have to come back to first principles

0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:43.119
<v Speaker 1>UM and and too often the discussion on digital money

0:19:43.160 --> 0:19:47.359
<v Speaker 1>digital currency UM started from the wrong place, like started

0:19:47.359 --> 0:19:50.000
<v Speaker 1>from the technological end of the discussion. Are we going

0:19:50.040 --> 0:19:53.320
<v Speaker 1>to do CBDC using blockchain? And if it's a blockchain,

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.400
<v Speaker 1>is that going to be corder or hyper ledger or

0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.840
<v Speaker 1>whatever else, which is an important discussion in due time,

0:20:00.400 --> 0:20:02.680
<v Speaker 1>but it's not it's not the right the right place

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:05.360
<v Speaker 1>to start from. We want to start from first principles.

0:20:06.000 --> 0:20:10.360
<v Speaker 1>And as a central banker, I would say our job

0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:14.320
<v Speaker 1>is to is twofold, is to ensure price stability or

0:20:14.359 --> 0:20:18.040
<v Speaker 1>monetized stability, meaning that you should have the ways and

0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:22.360
<v Speaker 1>means to implement your monetipe policy, whichever moneytype policy you've decided.

0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:25.040
<v Speaker 1>As a as a Monetipe Policy Committee. That's the first thing,

0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:28.119
<v Speaker 1>and CBDC should not hamper that. And if it can help,

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:30.960
<v Speaker 1>it's even better. We can discuss it later. And the

0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:34.600
<v Speaker 1>second thing is financial stability. And an essential part of

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:38.440
<v Speaker 1>financial stability is the existence of core payment systems at

0:20:38.480 --> 0:20:43.280
<v Speaker 1>the heart of the financial infrastructure, which connects financial institutions,

0:20:43.320 --> 0:20:47.959
<v Speaker 1>which connect jurisdictions, and which a low real time settlement

0:20:48.480 --> 0:20:51.720
<v Speaker 1>in central bank money. Right, and so the key role

0:20:51.760 --> 0:20:54.639
<v Speaker 1>of the central banks really is at the heart of

0:20:54.640 --> 0:20:57.480
<v Speaker 1>the system to provide stability. And we don't want to

0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:00.240
<v Speaker 1>take over. And there are many many things, most things

0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:02.400
<v Speaker 1>that we we won't we wouldn't do well and we're

0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:04.760
<v Speaker 1>not going to do so. To give an obvious example,

0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:09.800
<v Speaker 1>if CBDC comes as as a token, most likely is

0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.600
<v Speaker 1>going to be handled in in wallets, right, So you

0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:15.919
<v Speaker 1>would have a wallet on your phone, say with with

0:21:16.000 --> 0:21:19.720
<v Speaker 1>CBDC with central bank tokens in it. That's not something

0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:22.359
<v Speaker 1>central banks should be doing. It's it's very obvious to

0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:24.760
<v Speaker 1>all of her. That's wallets are something for the private

0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 1>sector to do, right and so and so there there

0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:30.600
<v Speaker 1>there is room for everyone. There is room for everyone.

0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:33.560
<v Speaker 1>The key thing is any form of commercial money has

0:21:33.600 --> 0:21:37.560
<v Speaker 1>to be regulated, right, and there there might be a

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:41.439
<v Speaker 1>financial stability considerations which would lead us to impose some

0:21:41.520 --> 0:21:45.040
<v Speaker 1>requirements like settlement in central bank money. But apart from that,

0:21:45.680 --> 0:21:49.320
<v Speaker 1>we need the private sector to innovate. All that innovation

0:21:49.359 --> 0:21:51.879
<v Speaker 1>will come from the friend sector. I'm not I'm not

0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:55.040
<v Speaker 1>aware that central bankers are particularly good that you know,

0:21:55.280 --> 0:21:59.879
<v Speaker 1>at finding new technologies. That's not what we do. Okay,

0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Can I ask you a question? I mean, you mentioned

0:22:01.960 --> 0:22:04.840
<v Speaker 1>stable coins. We talked about Libra, and I think that

0:22:04.880 --> 0:22:08.639
<v Speaker 1>there is a sort of spectrum of what we see

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:13.480
<v Speaker 1>in the stable coins space, from sort of extremely projects

0:22:13.480 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 1>that attempt to be very uh legitimate Facebook as Facebook

0:22:17.640 --> 0:22:20.040
<v Speaker 1>Libra is probably one of them, to others that are

0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:24.240
<v Speaker 1>probably a little dice here. What is the regulatory case

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 1>for the existence of stable clinates because central bankers regulators

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.199
<v Speaker 1>have been pretty permissive it seems of them for a while.

0:22:32.320 --> 0:22:37.160
<v Speaker 1>And I'm curious why from your perspective they're beneficial and

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:41.000
<v Speaker 1>why uh sort of people should be able to use

0:22:41.240 --> 0:22:45.919
<v Speaker 1>a currency on the distributed ledger somewhere that is ultimately

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:51.920
<v Speaker 1>backed up by a sort of licensed, licensed bank. Well,

0:22:51.920 --> 0:22:55.639
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't really see um stable coins as currencies, so

0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:59.200
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a little bit of a misnomber um. I

0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 1>would see stable coins as um as new payment systems

0:23:04.000 --> 0:23:08.040
<v Speaker 1>which are very well, very integrated, back to end, a

0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:11.080
<v Speaker 1>close loop payment systems. So it's a it's it's a

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:13.160
<v Speaker 1>little bit different from the kind of innovation that we've

0:23:13.200 --> 0:23:16.560
<v Speaker 1>seen until recently in the payment world, which was really

0:23:16.600 --> 0:23:18.439
<v Speaker 1>at the front end, right, it was about, you know,

0:23:18.920 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 1>providing you with a better interface, providing you with an

0:23:22.000 --> 0:23:25.080
<v Speaker 1>interface on your smartphone and son and so forth, And

0:23:25.160 --> 0:23:28.000
<v Speaker 1>all of a sudden we see payment architectures which are

0:23:28.119 --> 0:23:32.840
<v Speaker 1>entirely private, which which are encompassing and go and include

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the the back end, that is the pipeline that will

0:23:36.200 --> 0:23:38.440
<v Speaker 1>that will bring money from one place to another, right,

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:42.320
<v Speaker 1>which wasn't the case so far, and um, and that

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.040
<v Speaker 1>might be okay. That might be okay if it's well regulated,

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:50.720
<v Speaker 1>if consumers or investors are protected and know the risk

0:23:51.080 --> 0:23:53.520
<v Speaker 1>the risks they are taking, that might be okay to

0:23:53.560 --> 0:23:55.560
<v Speaker 1>have that kind of payment systems. I don't see I

0:23:55.560 --> 0:23:57.680
<v Speaker 1>don't really see that as the currency. I think that

0:23:57.760 --> 0:23:59.680
<v Speaker 1>as a new means of payment which can be convenient,

0:24:00.560 --> 0:24:03.720
<v Speaker 1>but which also raised as risks. And these risks have

0:24:03.800 --> 0:24:06.600
<v Speaker 1>been highlighted last year in the in the G seven

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:09.640
<v Speaker 1>report and stable coins and and uh and and recently

0:24:09.680 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 1>by the by the FSB UM and the risks come

0:24:12.720 --> 0:24:15.000
<v Speaker 1>from the fact that these new projects are are global.

0:24:15.280 --> 0:24:18.280
<v Speaker 1>Liberal is an obvious example. And so there are risks

0:24:18.280 --> 0:24:21.119
<v Speaker 1>to the for instance, to the to the functioning of

0:24:21.160 --> 0:24:24.560
<v Speaker 1>the international monetized system which are entirely new, which you

0:24:24.560 --> 0:24:28.840
<v Speaker 1>you didn't have with earlier forms of cryptocurrency. Like what

0:24:28.920 --> 0:24:33.320
<v Speaker 1>happens if you have a major stable coin which is

0:24:33.359 --> 0:24:36.600
<v Speaker 1>being issued and you start to see substitution with with

0:24:36.680 --> 0:24:40.199
<v Speaker 1>local currency in some smaller jurisdiction. That would be a

0:24:40.200 --> 0:24:42.919
<v Speaker 1>concern for that jurisdiction, would be a concerned for the

0:24:42.960 --> 0:24:44.760
<v Speaker 1>I m F, would be a concern for the World Bank.

0:24:45.160 --> 0:24:47.359
<v Speaker 1>And that's something that we want to discuss. So so

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.359
<v Speaker 1>you see new risks coming, right, But there is no

0:24:50.400 --> 0:24:55.000
<v Speaker 1>reason why a priori stable coins should be h rejected

0:24:55.920 --> 0:24:57.760
<v Speaker 1>and and and and and let me let me just

0:24:57.880 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>as a just for for the record mentioned there are

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:03.960
<v Speaker 1>other forms of stable coin which hardly anyone speaks about,

0:25:04.040 --> 0:25:07.679
<v Speaker 1>which are wholesale stable coins. Right, imagine a coin that

0:25:07.720 --> 0:25:10.119
<v Speaker 1>would be issued by a by a large commercial bank

0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:15.480
<v Speaker 1>to settle transaction within a few a small group of clients,

0:25:15.800 --> 0:25:18.400
<v Speaker 1>and that would be backed by by central bank money.

0:25:18.760 --> 0:25:21.080
<v Speaker 1>That's a stable coin. It's much less of a discussion

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:23.960
<v Speaker 1>because it's not going to reach billions of people, but

0:25:24.080 --> 0:25:28.400
<v Speaker 1>only a handful of commercial banks. So that's pretty easy

0:25:28.440 --> 0:25:31.760
<v Speaker 1>to to to understand and to regulate. But it's also coming.

0:25:32.600 --> 0:25:35.560
<v Speaker 1>My understanding is that one of the big debates about

0:25:35.560 --> 0:25:39.760
<v Speaker 1>digital money from central banks is whether it would strengthen

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:43.359
<v Speaker 1>the transmission of monetary policy. So, on the one hand,

0:25:44.359 --> 0:25:49.880
<v Speaker 1>if you have CBDC, central banks can directly influence interest

0:25:49.960 --> 0:25:53.800
<v Speaker 1>rates on digital money and they basically control it. But

0:25:53.840 --> 0:25:57.480
<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, your as we discussed potentially setting

0:25:57.560 --> 0:26:00.760
<v Speaker 1>up a competitor to bank deposits, and we're not exactly

0:26:00.800 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 1>sure whether or not that might change the sensitivity of

0:26:05.040 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>the demand for that type of money to interest rates.

0:26:08.560 --> 0:26:11.200
<v Speaker 1>I be curious to get your views on is how

0:26:11.240 --> 0:26:16.040
<v Speaker 1>do you see CBDC interacting with monetary policy. That's a

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:18.119
<v Speaker 1>really good question. It's a little bit the elephant in

0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:20.600
<v Speaker 1>the room because that's a it's a really good question,

0:26:20.680 --> 0:26:24.199
<v Speaker 1>and that's it's a it's a question that most central

0:26:24.240 --> 0:26:28.400
<v Speaker 1>banks are working hard to not to answer and see,

0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:31.359
<v Speaker 1>I take the report we've been we've been discussing. We

0:26:31.359 --> 0:26:33.840
<v Speaker 1>we we kind of allude to that, but we are

0:26:34.040 --> 0:26:35.920
<v Speaker 1>very early on the front. We say we're not going

0:26:35.960 --> 0:26:39.160
<v Speaker 1>to discuss it, right. And there is a simple reason

0:26:39.200 --> 0:26:42.000
<v Speaker 1>to that that, which is that monetary policy is a

0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:46.800
<v Speaker 1>is a different mandate and it's it's it's very national,

0:26:46.880 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 1>it's very domestic, and it's being decided in different places

0:26:50.640 --> 0:26:54.679
<v Speaker 1>like I mean monetary policy committees, um, and so central

0:26:54.720 --> 0:26:58.080
<v Speaker 1>bonds don't want to mix up the two discussions because

0:26:58.200 --> 0:27:01.760
<v Speaker 1>if CBDC comes and the way they will use it

0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:04.000
<v Speaker 1>for money type to do monetype policy is something that

0:27:04.040 --> 0:27:07.760
<v Speaker 1>they want to decide for themselves. And so the case

0:27:07.880 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 1>for international cooperation today is not on the monotype policy side.

0:27:13.119 --> 0:27:15.760
<v Speaker 1>It's on the payment side, because we want the payment

0:27:15.840 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 1>architecture to work smoothly and it is global, right uh.

0:27:20.560 --> 0:27:22.880
<v Speaker 1>And this is why, this is why you already see

0:27:22.880 --> 0:27:25.960
<v Speaker 1>and you're going to see a lot more international coordination

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:30.280
<v Speaker 1>on CBDC and on digital money generally because payments are

0:27:30.359 --> 0:27:34.480
<v Speaker 1>the the backbone of the of the international financial architecture,

0:27:35.040 --> 0:27:37.080
<v Speaker 1>and so you won't go to see coordination for the

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:40.720
<v Speaker 1>system to be stable. Well. Monetype policy is a sovereign matter,

0:27:40.960 --> 0:27:44.639
<v Speaker 1>is decided locally people and and and governors want to

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:47.400
<v Speaker 1>talk to their and to report to their to their parliaments,

0:27:47.480 --> 0:27:50.600
<v Speaker 1>right to US Congress, to the European Parliament, et cetera.

0:27:51.040 --> 0:27:53.320
<v Speaker 1>That's not something they want to discuss in the open

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:56.720
<v Speaker 1>air and internationally. So so that was a little bit

0:27:56.760 --> 0:28:00.280
<v Speaker 1>of a sociological or political you know, the tour to

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:02.240
<v Speaker 1>to to explain, to explain to you why we're not

0:28:02.280 --> 0:28:05.160
<v Speaker 1>discussing it now. Of course, it is an issue. Of course,

0:28:05.160 --> 0:28:06.800
<v Speaker 1>it is an issue that central banks will have to

0:28:07.080 --> 0:28:11.720
<v Speaker 1>to decide for themselves. And I really see a key

0:28:12.000 --> 0:28:15.840
<v Speaker 1>question coming for for each and every central bank to decide,

0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:20.520
<v Speaker 1>which is do you want to do CBDC for monetary

0:28:20.560 --> 0:28:23.640
<v Speaker 1>policy reasons or do you want to make it as

0:28:23.760 --> 0:28:27.359
<v Speaker 1>neutral as possible on the way with respect to the

0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:31.400
<v Speaker 1>way you implement your monetype policy. And that's a decision

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:34.199
<v Speaker 1>to take early on, because it impacts your architecture, It

0:28:34.240 --> 0:28:37.080
<v Speaker 1>impacts the way you're going to do CBDC. Right, if

0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:40.400
<v Speaker 1>you want CBDC to be accessed by your broad range

0:28:40.400 --> 0:28:42.760
<v Speaker 1>of economic players and if you want to be able

0:28:42.840 --> 0:28:47.960
<v Speaker 1>to control both the quantity and the price of that

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:50.800
<v Speaker 1>particular form of money, which is what monet type policy

0:28:50.840 --> 0:28:55.560
<v Speaker 1>is about. Then it's different from deciding that you you're

0:28:55.560 --> 0:28:58.200
<v Speaker 1>going to issue a given amount of CBDC and then

0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:00.880
<v Speaker 1>you you don't want to know where it's going, for instance.

0:29:01.600 --> 0:29:03.920
<v Speaker 1>And so there is a potential to use CBDC in

0:29:03.960 --> 0:29:07.440
<v Speaker 1>a kind of tailor made way right in a kind

0:29:07.440 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 1>of very very granular way to um to bring money

0:29:11.400 --> 0:29:15.600
<v Speaker 1>to particular places, to uh to to to pump money

0:29:15.600 --> 0:29:18.560
<v Speaker 1>down the last mile as a as my colleague I

0:29:18.720 --> 0:29:21.480
<v Speaker 1>was in constance has has one said, that's that's that's

0:29:21.280 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 1>something that today's Central Bank is very much want to

0:29:23.360 --> 0:29:26.080
<v Speaker 1>see money being pumped down the last mile and and

0:29:26.160 --> 0:29:30.680
<v Speaker 1>reaching all players, all corners of society. UM. But if

0:29:30.720 --> 0:29:33.440
<v Speaker 1>you want to do CBDC to do that, then you

0:29:33.560 --> 0:29:36.680
<v Speaker 1>probably have to to design your CBDC in a different way.

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:40.120
<v Speaker 1>And and Central Box have not decided yet really, so

0:29:40.160 --> 0:29:42.360
<v Speaker 1>we're a little bit at a cross roads there, and

0:29:42.400 --> 0:29:46.640
<v Speaker 1>different Central box may take different decisions. And so my

0:29:46.720 --> 0:29:50.160
<v Speaker 1>person my personal take if you're which which doesn't commit anyone,

0:29:51.040 --> 0:29:52.920
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not even doing money type policy because I'm

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:54.760
<v Speaker 1>had the bi s so it's it's really my personal

0:29:54.840 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 1>view is that it is worth reflecting on that because

0:29:59.280 --> 0:30:01.840
<v Speaker 1>we we're kind of at the end of a cycle

0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:06.080
<v Speaker 1>where monetipe policy. We've made money type policy implementation incredibly

0:30:06.120 --> 0:30:10.440
<v Speaker 1>sophisticated since the Great Financial Crisis and again now through

0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:14.120
<v Speaker 1>the years of corner crisis. But most of it, if

0:30:14.120 --> 0:30:16.600
<v Speaker 1>not all of it, he goes through capital markets, right,

0:30:16.720 --> 0:30:20.720
<v Speaker 1>So we have very different sophisticated ways, complex ways to

0:30:21.760 --> 0:30:25.640
<v Speaker 1>influence on capital, on financial market expectations, and on and

0:30:25.640 --> 0:30:28.560
<v Speaker 1>and and on pumping money in and I out of

0:30:28.600 --> 0:30:31.960
<v Speaker 1>capital markets. But at some point that's hitting the limits

0:30:32.040 --> 0:30:35.320
<v Speaker 1>because our places in the economy where money just which

0:30:35.320 --> 0:30:38.720
<v Speaker 1>money just cannot cannot reach. It also might create political

0:30:38.760 --> 0:30:43.280
<v Speaker 1>issues because incredibly incredibly societies see monetype policy as being

0:30:43.600 --> 0:30:47.680
<v Speaker 1>a conversation between central bonks and and capital market participants

0:30:47.880 --> 0:30:51.600
<v Speaker 1>um and they feel excluded from that conversation. So that

0:30:51.720 --> 0:30:53.320
<v Speaker 1>that was my my last word that the e c

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:55.360
<v Speaker 1>B last year, in my last speech in my last

0:30:55.360 --> 0:30:58.760
<v Speaker 1>meeting at the ECB, the conclusion was that if if

0:30:58.760 --> 0:31:02.160
<v Speaker 1>money type policy remains a conversation between central banks and

0:31:02.200 --> 0:31:04.960
<v Speaker 1>capital markets, then we shouldn't be surprised if people don't

0:31:05.000 --> 0:31:08.120
<v Speaker 1>trust us, right, And that's a little bit what we've seen.

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 1>And CBC can be a way to reconnect central banks

0:31:11.080 --> 0:31:13.400
<v Speaker 1>with with people if it's if he's done well. But

0:31:13.520 --> 0:31:15.400
<v Speaker 1>some central banks might want to go there, so we

0:31:15.480 --> 0:31:17.840
<v Speaker 1>don't want to go there, and that's fine. They're all different.

0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:20.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this might be a good moment to sort

0:31:20.560 --> 0:31:22.800
<v Speaker 1>of seg a little bit to some of the bigger

0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.040
<v Speaker 1>policy questions that the world faces right now. But it

0:31:26.120 --> 0:31:28.280
<v Speaker 1>seems to me like a point that you've made which

0:31:28.320 --> 0:31:30.240
<v Speaker 1>I find really interesting, and a few of your answers

0:31:30.320 --> 0:31:33.080
<v Speaker 1>is like a lot of these are just political questions,

0:31:33.080 --> 0:31:35.880
<v Speaker 1>and political questions have to be made to some extent

0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:39.240
<v Speaker 1>outside of the central bank. But I guess one of

0:31:39.240 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 1>them is do we want monetary authorities to have the

0:31:44.120 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 1>ability to more easily put buying power in the hands

0:31:48.320 --> 0:31:52.040
<v Speaker 1>of normal people, not just functioned through capital markets. And

0:31:52.080 --> 0:31:56.000
<v Speaker 1>it sounds like the sort of CBDC conversation that the

0:31:56.000 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 1>world is having is sort of a parallel potential conversation

0:32:00.160 --> 0:32:03.560
<v Speaker 1>to this question of do we want to expand the

0:32:03.600 --> 0:32:06.640
<v Speaker 1>tools that central banks have to get people money? Yeah?

0:32:06.680 --> 0:32:08.840
<v Speaker 1>I would, I would agree with that, And I mean

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:11.080
<v Speaker 1>the fact that there are political dimensions. So it doesn't

0:32:11.120 --> 0:32:16.960
<v Speaker 1>imply that central banks should defer to two politicians, right CBDC.

0:32:17.280 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 1>CBDC is about the future of money, it's about the

0:32:20.040 --> 0:32:23.040
<v Speaker 1>future of multi policy, it's about the future of payments,

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:25.360
<v Speaker 1>and so central banks should be on on top of

0:32:25.400 --> 0:32:28.520
<v Speaker 1>that discussion, which which which they are now. But what

0:32:28.680 --> 0:32:31.719
<v Speaker 1>I guess what we're both saying is there are dimensions,

0:32:31.720 --> 0:32:34.239
<v Speaker 1>there are some trade offs where you need to to

0:32:34.280 --> 0:32:38.480
<v Speaker 1>get a sense of of the preferences of society. You

0:32:38.560 --> 0:32:40.800
<v Speaker 1>need to you need to take the pulse of society.

0:32:41.320 --> 0:32:44.840
<v Speaker 1>And that's why in all places CBDC will require um

0:32:45.080 --> 0:32:49.440
<v Speaker 1>extensive consultations, which is the way the for instance, the

0:32:49.520 --> 0:32:52.440
<v Speaker 1>Riggs Bank in in Stockholm has taken, which is always

0:32:52.520 --> 0:32:55.680
<v Speaker 1>easy b now is taking. You need to consult a lot.

0:32:55.840 --> 0:32:58.320
<v Speaker 1>That's not something that you want to do under closed

0:32:58.320 --> 0:33:02.280
<v Speaker 1>door in a in a central somewhere. You that's something

0:33:02.320 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 1>where many dimensions where which need their engagements with society

0:33:07.000 --> 0:33:11.440
<v Speaker 1>at large. So I know there's been some discussion on

0:33:12.080 --> 0:33:15.040
<v Speaker 1>potentially tearing interest rates when it comes to cb d

0:33:15.040 --> 0:33:18.120
<v Speaker 1>C and and maybe even allowing the Central Bank to

0:33:18.320 --> 0:33:23.720
<v Speaker 1>impose negative rates on digital money that they issue. That

0:33:23.880 --> 0:33:28.080
<v Speaker 1>probably says more about where we are in terms of

0:33:28.600 --> 0:33:32.000
<v Speaker 1>unconventional monetary policy as a whole than it does necessarily

0:33:32.040 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 1>about c B d C. But maybe that should be

0:33:34.800 --> 0:33:38.360
<v Speaker 1>a que too, to broaden the conversation and talk a

0:33:38.360 --> 0:33:41.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit about what's going on in the world at

0:33:41.200 --> 0:33:43.960
<v Speaker 1>the moment. I think when you were at the ECB,

0:33:44.680 --> 0:33:48.520
<v Speaker 1>there was an assumption that monetary policy would eventually get

0:33:48.560 --> 0:33:52.239
<v Speaker 1>back to normal, But it seems increasingly likely now that

0:33:52.440 --> 0:33:55.800
<v Speaker 1>low interest rates and asset purchase programs, things like that

0:33:55.840 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 1>are here to stay. Do you think we're ever going

0:33:59.520 --> 0:34:03.240
<v Speaker 1>to get back to the days of boring central banking

0:34:03.360 --> 0:34:06.560
<v Speaker 1>where we would never be talking about negative interest rates

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:11.680
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to CBDC. Yeah, well that's truely through

0:34:11.719 --> 0:34:15.160
<v Speaker 1>that term. I'm now old enough that I remember the

0:34:15.239 --> 0:34:19.560
<v Speaker 1>days where interest rates were positive. Le see, these were

0:34:19.600 --> 0:34:22.480
<v Speaker 1>the good old days. And the year the Corona, the

0:34:22.480 --> 0:34:26.320
<v Speaker 1>Corona crisis, the Corona shock as there has disrupted everything.

0:34:26.520 --> 0:34:29.160
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's fair to her, it's fair to

0:34:29.200 --> 0:34:31.879
<v Speaker 1>say that there is no prospect, there is no short

0:34:31.960 --> 0:34:37.280
<v Speaker 1>term prospect of money typolicy normalization anytime soon because of

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:40.799
<v Speaker 1>the the amounts extraordinary amount of uncertainty that we have,

0:34:40.920 --> 0:34:43.640
<v Speaker 1>which which comes from from outside the economy, which comes

0:34:43.680 --> 0:34:48.440
<v Speaker 1>from the UM from the cycle of lockdowns and UH

0:34:48.560 --> 0:34:51.439
<v Speaker 1>and and waves, etcetera. And so as long as we

0:34:51.440 --> 0:34:54.760
<v Speaker 1>will have this kind of waves and uncertainty on lockdowns,

0:34:55.000 --> 0:34:57.239
<v Speaker 1>there will be the economy will be in a state

0:34:57.320 --> 0:35:03.719
<v Speaker 1>for very high fragility because UH expectations will because there

0:35:03.760 --> 0:35:06.360
<v Speaker 1>is no way that they are that that that businesses

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:09.440
<v Speaker 1>or consumers can form expectations about the future, so that

0:35:09.560 --> 0:35:13.320
<v Speaker 1>that that that kind of compresses the time horizon of

0:35:13.320 --> 0:35:16.840
<v Speaker 1>of both businesses and consumers in a way that that

0:35:16.960 --> 0:35:20.000
<v Speaker 1>makes it very very difficult to to plan for the

0:35:20.040 --> 0:35:22.000
<v Speaker 1>long term, which is what central banks should be doing

0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:24.400
<v Speaker 1>now in there. If you think of the kind of

0:35:24.440 --> 0:35:29.520
<v Speaker 1>assignment of roles in the in the economic policymaking world,

0:35:30.120 --> 0:35:32.799
<v Speaker 1>you would expect central bankers to care for the long term,

0:35:32.880 --> 0:35:36.399
<v Speaker 1>while politicians are kind of prisoners of their of short

0:35:36.520 --> 0:35:42.040
<v Speaker 1>term incentives and constraints and political cycles and underlike UM

0:35:42.040 --> 0:35:43.920
<v Speaker 1>and you would like central bankers to think for the

0:35:44.040 --> 0:35:48.080
<v Speaker 1>for the future. But today's count because it's just too uncertain.

0:35:48.960 --> 0:35:51.880
<v Speaker 1>So it's very difficult to to UH to to to

0:35:51.960 --> 0:35:54.000
<v Speaker 1>kind of make make plans about the future of my

0:35:54.120 --> 0:35:56.839
<v Speaker 1>entire policy, and these I think the only year kind

0:35:56.840 --> 0:35:59.920
<v Speaker 1>of a sensible conclusion is that central banks need my

0:36:00.000 --> 0:36:03.120
<v Speaker 1>semum flexibility to to coop result kind of outcomes, So

0:36:03.280 --> 0:36:05.760
<v Speaker 1>they need to keep to keep all their options open.

0:36:07.840 --> 0:36:11.400
<v Speaker 1>So I mean, because of this sort of extraordinary moment,

0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:13.279
<v Speaker 1>and you mentioned it, I think in one of your

0:36:13.280 --> 0:36:16.879
<v Speaker 1>first answers were in an era in which they're sort

0:36:16.880 --> 0:36:20.240
<v Speaker 1>of a perception but prior also reality that there really

0:36:20.360 --> 0:36:24.160
<v Speaker 1>is only so much, so many tools at the central

0:36:24.160 --> 0:36:28.360
<v Speaker 1>bank's disposal. Right now, we have more people talking about, okay,

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:33.240
<v Speaker 1>we need more aggressive fiscal policy across the developed world.

0:36:33.320 --> 0:36:36.320
<v Speaker 1>Even the I m F has said as such a

0:36:36.920 --> 0:36:39.480
<v Speaker 1>do you believe um that that is the case, that

0:36:39.560 --> 0:36:43.040
<v Speaker 1>there is an argument for fiscal authorities to do more?

0:36:43.480 --> 0:36:46.320
<v Speaker 1>But more importantly, do you think sort of going forward,

0:36:46.360 --> 0:36:49.080
<v Speaker 1>and even as this crisis hopefully sort of phades into

0:36:49.120 --> 0:36:51.279
<v Speaker 1>the rear view mirror, do you think it's worth a

0:36:51.360 --> 0:36:55.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of broader rethink about a more permanent role for

0:36:55.360 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 1>UH fiscal policy in terms of macro stabilization, such that

0:36:59.239 --> 0:37:03.720
<v Speaker 1>we're not really depended on central banks to balance the economy.

0:37:03.760 --> 0:37:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Every time, you know, things things go bad, it's there.

0:37:08.400 --> 0:37:11.640
<v Speaker 1>It's a pity that you would need their global pandemics

0:37:11.680 --> 0:37:15.000
<v Speaker 1>to to have that discussion, right, I mean, I mean

0:37:15.040 --> 0:37:17.440
<v Speaker 1>it has started a little bit before, but it does

0:37:17.480 --> 0:37:21.120
<v Speaker 1>feel as though the pandemic has accelerated the discussion of nothing. Yeah,

0:37:21.120 --> 0:37:23.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean that there are there are I think the discussion.

0:37:23.320 --> 0:37:26.759
<v Speaker 1>I mean it it looks different in different places, and

0:37:26.880 --> 0:37:29.879
<v Speaker 1>we're thinking there. In the US, you have a very

0:37:29.920 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 1>decent tradition of stabilization policies, both on the monetary side

0:37:34.120 --> 0:37:36.879
<v Speaker 1>and on the fiscal side, and of a good, good

0:37:37.760 --> 0:37:42.320
<v Speaker 1>complimentarity between monetary policy and fiscal policy, and the economy

0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:46.279
<v Speaker 1>is flexible and resilient and strong enough that you you

0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:49.320
<v Speaker 1>can stay in that mode, right, because the economy always

0:37:49.360 --> 0:37:52.080
<v Speaker 1>comes back, and so you're not stuck in a state

0:37:52.120 --> 0:37:54.520
<v Speaker 1>of the world where you would have to to do

0:37:54.640 --> 0:37:57.880
<v Speaker 1>a very active monetype policy and very active fiscal policy

0:37:57.880 --> 0:38:01.200
<v Speaker 1>at the same time, because the economy it comes back. Right.

0:38:01.800 --> 0:38:04.839
<v Speaker 1>It's more difficult in Europe for different reasons, one reason

0:38:04.960 --> 0:38:07.680
<v Speaker 1>being that we've we've never been able so I say

0:38:07.719 --> 0:38:11.359
<v Speaker 1>we as a European right, uh now, we've never been

0:38:11.400 --> 0:38:14.720
<v Speaker 1>able to find the right fiscal framework, and so fiscal

0:38:14.760 --> 0:38:18.400
<v Speaker 1>policy has never been has never been very helpful in

0:38:19.120 --> 0:38:23.839
<v Speaker 1>helping the ECB manager cycle, and it's becoming more helpful now.

0:38:24.400 --> 0:38:26.840
<v Speaker 1>And you've discussed it with with my former colleague of

0:38:26.840 --> 0:38:30.080
<v Speaker 1>it or Constanzo, and I agree with with a lot

0:38:30.120 --> 0:38:32.360
<v Speaker 1>of what what he told you that is now happening,

0:38:32.400 --> 0:38:35.279
<v Speaker 1>and it's a it's a very good development. But the

0:38:35.320 --> 0:38:37.880
<v Speaker 1>other reason is that the economy is in Europe is

0:38:37.880 --> 0:38:41.399
<v Speaker 1>not nearly as flexible than the US. So if you're

0:38:41.400 --> 0:38:44.520
<v Speaker 1>into that kind of of extraordinary situation where you need

0:38:44.560 --> 0:38:47.759
<v Speaker 1>to to turn the dial and and have a very

0:38:47.800 --> 0:38:50.800
<v Speaker 1>active type policy and fiscal policy at the same time,

0:38:50.840 --> 0:38:54.560
<v Speaker 1>because the economy is not responding, you don't know how

0:38:54.640 --> 0:38:56.480
<v Speaker 1>much how how much time it will come to go

0:38:56.560 --> 0:39:00.000
<v Speaker 1>back to normal, right, because the economy is not facile

0:39:00.000 --> 0:39:02.319
<v Speaker 1>bab enough to do it by itself. So that's that's

0:39:02.320 --> 0:39:05.799
<v Speaker 1>a different situation, which also calls for a little bit

0:39:05.800 --> 0:39:08.719
<v Speaker 1>of caution, right because you can be stuck there in

0:39:08.800 --> 0:39:10.480
<v Speaker 1>that kind of in that kind of state of the

0:39:10.480 --> 0:39:14.080
<v Speaker 1>world for much longer. And so so far, so good.

0:39:14.160 --> 0:39:16.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, the what what what fiscal authorities and my

0:39:17.040 --> 0:39:19.360
<v Speaker 1>entire authorities have done so far is exactly what you

0:39:19.400 --> 0:39:21.960
<v Speaker 1>were suggesting, And what what you what we want to

0:39:22.000 --> 0:39:25.239
<v Speaker 1>see that is good complimentarity between my entire policy and

0:39:25.360 --> 0:39:29.120
<v Speaker 1>fiscal policy. Even in emerging markets economy is by the way,

0:39:29.520 --> 0:39:32.560
<v Speaker 1>you are now seeing some I mean many emerging market

0:39:32.600 --> 0:39:37.120
<v Speaker 1>economies UM doing quee and the government is issuing more

0:39:37.120 --> 0:39:40.279
<v Speaker 1>domestic depth I mean domestic currency, the nominated depth, which

0:39:40.280 --> 0:39:43.600
<v Speaker 1>is santral banc and partly buy UM and that's the

0:39:43.640 --> 0:39:46.399
<v Speaker 1>way to kind of strengthen the complimentarity between my Thai

0:39:46.480 --> 0:39:49.680
<v Speaker 1>policy and fiscal policy, and that has given them much

0:39:49.719 --> 0:39:53.920
<v Speaker 1>more policy space. So you're seeing that happening in different places.

0:39:54.400 --> 0:39:57.360
<v Speaker 1>The question is what happens if that is that a

0:39:57.400 --> 0:40:01.680
<v Speaker 1>situation that can last for many years, because then depth

0:40:01.719 --> 0:40:04.960
<v Speaker 1>public depth will be building up. Private depth will be

0:40:05.000 --> 0:40:07.640
<v Speaker 1>building up as well. Some of it will be transferred

0:40:07.640 --> 0:40:10.799
<v Speaker 1>onto the balance sheet of the government UM and at

0:40:10.840 --> 0:40:15.080
<v Speaker 1>some point, whatever the efforts of the central bank, the

0:40:15.120 --> 0:40:17.520
<v Speaker 1>depth will be will be will be so high that

0:40:17.560 --> 0:40:20.719
<v Speaker 1>you will need some kind of rescheduling or restructuring. UH.

0:40:20.760 --> 0:40:23.680
<v Speaker 1>And so if if if the situation with the virus

0:40:23.800 --> 0:40:27.480
<v Speaker 1>states as it is for a number of for another

0:40:28.239 --> 0:40:32.520
<v Speaker 1>a few years, which of course nobody nobody hopes what

0:40:32.640 --> 0:40:35.960
<v Speaker 1>today looks like good corporation between moneti policy and fiscal

0:40:36.040 --> 0:40:40.440
<v Speaker 1>policy and and respectful of everyone's mandate right, not not

0:40:40.560 --> 0:40:44.280
<v Speaker 1>harmful to the independence of central banks. That's something that

0:40:44.080 --> 0:40:47.360
<v Speaker 1>that would become much more difficult to sustain because you

0:40:47.400 --> 0:40:51.040
<v Speaker 1>will have to start discussions on some some ways to

0:40:51.040 --> 0:40:54.080
<v Speaker 1>to to share the fiscal burden. And these discussions can

0:40:54.080 --> 0:40:56.880
<v Speaker 1>be politically very difficult and very harmful. And and it's

0:40:56.920 --> 0:40:59.400
<v Speaker 1>already starting in the in the developing world. I mean,

0:40:59.440 --> 0:41:03.320
<v Speaker 1>there is an a discussion on depth restructuring and depth

0:41:03.640 --> 0:41:07.480
<v Speaker 1>depth initiatives in the in the developing world. M if

0:41:07.520 --> 0:41:09.640
<v Speaker 1>we stay there for a few more years, that will

0:41:09.640 --> 0:41:12.719
<v Speaker 1>gradually come to the developed world, and that will that

0:41:12.760 --> 0:41:17.319
<v Speaker 1>will come with huge political difficulties. So um, I guess

0:41:17.320 --> 0:41:19.200
<v Speaker 1>the only conclusion is that you want to you want

0:41:19.239 --> 0:41:22.040
<v Speaker 1>a vaccine to be found very quickly. That's a conclusion.

0:41:22.960 --> 0:41:25.440
<v Speaker 1>I think we can all agree with that. Definitely, we

0:41:25.520 --> 0:41:39.319
<v Speaker 1>all agree with that. Yeah, you mentioned the interview we

0:41:39.400 --> 0:41:43.040
<v Speaker 1>did with your former colleague bitour Constantio, and one of

0:41:43.080 --> 0:41:46.200
<v Speaker 1>the things that came up quite a bit in that

0:41:46.239 --> 0:41:52.040
<v Speaker 1>conversation was inflation or the lack thereof. Rather than ask

0:41:52.120 --> 0:41:55.279
<v Speaker 1>you the same question that we ask bitore, which is

0:41:55.640 --> 0:41:58.719
<v Speaker 1>do central banks understand inflation? I want to ask a

0:41:58.719 --> 0:42:01.799
<v Speaker 1>slightly different one, which is, why do you think that

0:42:02.080 --> 0:42:07.000
<v Speaker 1>consumers or the average person's perception of inflation seems to

0:42:07.320 --> 0:42:11.640
<v Speaker 1>differ from what central banks are looking at? And I

0:42:11.640 --> 0:42:14.360
<v Speaker 1>think there's a stat out there that um, according to

0:42:14.480 --> 0:42:19.120
<v Speaker 1>European Commission Survey, households thought annual inflation was something like

0:42:19.280 --> 0:42:24.399
<v Speaker 1>nine percent between two thousand four and whereas we all

0:42:24.440 --> 0:42:28.440
<v Speaker 1>know having this conversation now, that inflation was actually below

0:42:28.640 --> 0:42:31.000
<v Speaker 1>the two percent target and quite far below it. So

0:42:31.640 --> 0:42:34.839
<v Speaker 1>where do you think that discrepancy is actually coming from, Well,

0:42:34.880 --> 0:42:38.600
<v Speaker 1>it comes from there. The way statisticians and central and

0:42:38.640 --> 0:42:41.640
<v Speaker 1>central bankers look at inflation is a is very is

0:42:41.680 --> 0:42:44.640
<v Speaker 1>from a southern feet right. It's a bird's eye view

0:42:44.760 --> 0:42:49.120
<v Speaker 1>on everything that's going on into the economy across social groups,

0:42:49.160 --> 0:42:53.000
<v Speaker 1>across age groups, across different places. And it's so it

0:42:53.040 --> 0:42:58.040
<v Speaker 1>totally kind of ignores the diversity of consumption habits, um

0:42:58.160 --> 0:43:00.840
<v Speaker 1>and the and also the fact that you buy different

0:43:01.000 --> 0:43:05.080
<v Speaker 1>different goods and services at different frequencies over time. So

0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:11.000
<v Speaker 1>individuals are are biased towards overweighting goods and services that

0:43:11.080 --> 0:43:14.000
<v Speaker 1>they buy very often like like obviously, I mean food

0:43:14.040 --> 0:43:18.640
<v Speaker 1>and dairy and and transports and and and refueling your

0:43:18.640 --> 0:43:21.600
<v Speaker 1>car and that kind of things, while and the price

0:43:21.640 --> 0:43:25.120
<v Speaker 1>of her of smartphones might be collapsing. I mean, that's

0:43:25.120 --> 0:43:28.239
<v Speaker 1>not something you buy very often. So when people ask you,

0:43:28.320 --> 0:43:30.759
<v Speaker 1>come and ask you about inflation, you're not going to

0:43:30.800 --> 0:43:33.960
<v Speaker 1>think about that. So there are huge cognitive biases which

0:43:34.080 --> 0:43:37.279
<v Speaker 1>which are which are just normal, and central banks have

0:43:37.360 --> 0:43:40.319
<v Speaker 1>not really made the effort to kind of translate their

0:43:40.360 --> 0:43:44.319
<v Speaker 1>concepts into concepts that people can relate to. And I

0:43:44.360 --> 0:43:47.480
<v Speaker 1>think that's a big challenge for the future. That central

0:43:47.520 --> 0:43:49.720
<v Speaker 1>banks are absolutely right to to look at the economy

0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:53.680
<v Speaker 1>in the aggregate at a at an aggregate level, but

0:43:54.160 --> 0:43:57.040
<v Speaker 1>when they when they when they formulate their policies and

0:43:57.040 --> 0:43:59.520
<v Speaker 1>they're and their targets are in terms of inflation, they've

0:43:59.520 --> 0:44:03.440
<v Speaker 1>got to translate it in a way that people can understand.

0:44:03.520 --> 0:44:07.319
<v Speaker 1>And we're not doing that, you know, Without getting too

0:44:07.440 --> 0:44:11.880
<v Speaker 1>much into specific actions being taken by major central banks

0:44:12.080 --> 0:44:13.719
<v Speaker 1>right now, you know, I want to just talk a

0:44:13.760 --> 0:44:17.040
<v Speaker 1>little bit more about this sort of intellectual landscape, and

0:44:17.080 --> 0:44:22.160
<v Speaker 1>we see this movement towards um policies or frameworks that

0:44:22.200 --> 0:44:26.160
<v Speaker 1>seek to avoid past mistakes and the FED is engaging

0:44:26.239 --> 0:44:29.279
<v Speaker 1>or and now it's the new framework of average inflation

0:44:29.400 --> 0:44:34.759
<v Speaker 1>targeting UM combined with a sort of more robust forward guidance.

0:44:35.080 --> 0:44:37.760
<v Speaker 1>You've done a lot of work on these types of things,

0:44:38.160 --> 0:44:42.160
<v Speaker 1>uh in your career. Do you see this as evolution

0:44:42.360 --> 0:44:47.080
<v Speaker 1>average inflation targeting to avoid premature hikes in the future.

0:44:47.640 --> 0:44:50.719
<v Speaker 1>And do you think there's more that central banks can

0:44:50.760 --> 0:44:55.400
<v Speaker 1>do with sort of state contingent for for guidance, very

0:44:55.400 --> 0:44:58.960
<v Speaker 1>clear levels that they set before which they would consider

0:44:59.040 --> 0:45:01.840
<v Speaker 1>hiking raids or do you think the sort of current

0:45:03.080 --> 0:45:05.600
<v Speaker 1>or they sort of I guess at the state of

0:45:05.640 --> 0:45:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the art, so to speak, in terms of what can

0:45:07.239 --> 0:45:11.120
<v Speaker 1>be under this tour. Yeah. Look, look, I don't want

0:45:11.160 --> 0:45:14.359
<v Speaker 1>to I don't want to comment on specific decisions by

0:45:14.360 --> 0:45:17.239
<v Speaker 1>specific central banks. UM. I mean you can you can

0:45:17.280 --> 0:45:20.919
<v Speaker 1>put very sophisticated words and concepts on that. I think

0:45:20.920 --> 0:45:23.279
<v Speaker 1>at the end of the day, or it's a lot

0:45:23.280 --> 0:45:25.920
<v Speaker 1>of what is being done today in different places amounts

0:45:25.920 --> 0:45:28.920
<v Speaker 1>to just making sure that you will have maximum flexibility

0:45:28.960 --> 0:45:33.160
<v Speaker 1>to cope with with economic uncertainty and as you said, UM,

0:45:33.680 --> 0:45:37.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of firm tilting the discussion so that you're on

0:45:37.120 --> 0:45:39.759
<v Speaker 1>the right side of the discussion, and you prefer you

0:45:39.800 --> 0:45:42.160
<v Speaker 1>don't want to take the risk of having even lower inflation,

0:45:42.800 --> 0:45:45.800
<v Speaker 1>given that you're at or close to the lower abound

0:45:45.880 --> 0:45:49.360
<v Speaker 1>in terms of your interest rates um and and given

0:45:49.400 --> 0:45:52.840
<v Speaker 1>the the harmful the harmful con sequencers of deflation for

0:45:52.880 --> 0:45:55.080
<v Speaker 1>the economy, So you want to be in terms of

0:45:55.200 --> 0:45:57.000
<v Speaker 1>risk management, right, you want to be on the right

0:45:57.040 --> 0:46:00.719
<v Speaker 1>side of that of that risk. And if you if

0:46:00.719 --> 0:46:02.200
<v Speaker 1>you're going to take a chance, that would be the

0:46:02.280 --> 0:46:05.239
<v Speaker 1>chance of higher inflation, because then you know what to do.

0:46:05.680 --> 0:46:08.040
<v Speaker 1>That's how I understand what they're all saying, right, And

0:46:08.080 --> 0:46:10.920
<v Speaker 1>then you can put very fancy concepts on it, which

0:46:10.960 --> 0:46:13.799
<v Speaker 1>is which is fine. But as long as you as

0:46:13.840 --> 0:46:16.239
<v Speaker 1>the outcome is that you keep a lot of flexibility

0:46:17.120 --> 0:46:19.520
<v Speaker 1>and you are on the side of caution in terms

0:46:19.520 --> 0:46:23.400
<v Speaker 1>of not allowing a deflation to happen, I think that's fine.

0:46:23.760 --> 0:46:27.480
<v Speaker 1>And I don't think the exact framework matters matters too much,

0:46:28.120 --> 0:46:31.239
<v Speaker 1>all right, Well, Ben, what I really enjoyed that conversation,

0:46:31.360 --> 0:46:35.600
<v Speaker 1>and I feel like I actually have a, let's say,

0:46:36.719 --> 0:46:40.000
<v Speaker 1>the start of a good understanding of central bank digital currencies.

0:46:40.239 --> 0:46:42.600
<v Speaker 1>You did a really good job of framing the discussion.

0:46:42.680 --> 0:46:45.719
<v Speaker 1>So thank you so much. Okay, very good. So I

0:46:45.960 --> 0:46:47.880
<v Speaker 1>hope now you know why we are why we're doing it,

0:46:50.040 --> 0:47:11.120
<v Speaker 1>definitely more than before. Thanks. That was great. Thank so.

0:47:11.400 --> 0:47:15.880
<v Speaker 1>I found that conversation very very interesting, And one thing

0:47:15.920 --> 0:47:19.719
<v Speaker 1>that I did appreciate was Ben was framing of a

0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:24.280
<v Speaker 1>lot of these issues or debates not as technological problems,

0:47:24.360 --> 0:47:29.120
<v Speaker 1>but as political problems or political issues that need to

0:47:29.120 --> 0:47:34.680
<v Speaker 1>be decided by governments. Yes, I think to me that

0:47:34.920 --> 0:47:38.839
<v Speaker 1>was like the big takeaway too. So there's obviously the

0:47:38.880 --> 0:47:43.960
<v Speaker 1>technological side that's interesting. There are some exciting things that

0:47:44.000 --> 0:47:49.400
<v Speaker 1>can theoretically follow from the technological innovations, whether it's advances

0:47:49.440 --> 0:47:54.440
<v Speaker 1>and payments, the ability for people to engage in finance

0:47:54.520 --> 0:47:58.080
<v Speaker 1>outside of just um sort of interface with commercial banks.

0:47:58.520 --> 0:48:01.239
<v Speaker 1>But it does feel like these are all sort of

0:48:02.120 --> 0:48:04.960
<v Speaker 1>the big questions are still have to be fought over politically,

0:48:05.200 --> 0:48:08.560
<v Speaker 1>how any country actually wants to set these up, and

0:48:08.600 --> 0:48:12.200
<v Speaker 1>the parameters of digital currency. Yeah, and I think that's

0:48:12.239 --> 0:48:15.840
<v Speaker 1>another thing that came through from the conversation, the idea

0:48:15.960 --> 0:48:19.560
<v Speaker 1>that not every cb d C is going to look

0:48:19.600 --> 0:48:23.520
<v Speaker 1>the same, and countries might have different things or different

0:48:23.560 --> 0:48:26.480
<v Speaker 1>problems that they're actually looking to solve when they issue

0:48:26.520 --> 0:48:29.520
<v Speaker 1>these and for instance, you brought up the discussion about privacy.

0:48:29.640 --> 0:48:33.200
<v Speaker 1>There might be certain countries in the world, you know,

0:48:33.280 --> 0:48:36.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, places like that

0:48:36.440 --> 0:48:41.480
<v Speaker 1>where anonymity of central bank digital money could work and

0:48:41.640 --> 0:48:44.799
<v Speaker 1>could even be valued. Um, but that might not not

0:48:44.880 --> 0:48:47.919
<v Speaker 1>necessarily be the case in other parts of the world. Yeah,

0:48:47.960 --> 0:48:50.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think this is the question of anonymity

0:48:50.960 --> 0:48:53.640
<v Speaker 1>is super important because look, that is a really important

0:48:53.680 --> 0:48:57.520
<v Speaker 1>aspect of cash, right, Like people like cash for that reason,

0:48:57.920 --> 0:49:00.040
<v Speaker 1>but cash is going away. It's being used less and

0:49:00.160 --> 0:49:03.319
<v Speaker 1>less because a you know, we have our phones and

0:49:03.360 --> 0:49:05.680
<v Speaker 1>there's all kinds of sort of digital money infrastructure out

0:49:05.719 --> 0:49:08.120
<v Speaker 1>in the wild, but also just on the internet, there

0:49:08.200 --> 0:49:10.880
<v Speaker 1>is no way to spend cash. And so the question

0:49:10.960 --> 0:49:14.879
<v Speaker 1>is if there's a if we if we transport sort

0:49:14.920 --> 0:49:18.960
<v Speaker 1>of the concept of cash to the internet and such

0:49:19.000 --> 0:49:22.839
<v Speaker 1>that I can pay you for something directly without us

0:49:22.880 --> 0:49:26.040
<v Speaker 1>having to use a commercial bank, do I get to

0:49:26.200 --> 0:49:30.279
<v Speaker 1>keep what is a pretty fundamental characteristic of cash, which

0:49:30.320 --> 0:49:34.160
<v Speaker 1>is that privacy? And if not, I think that's like

0:49:34.200 --> 0:49:37.879
<v Speaker 1>a potentially sort of a loss and a worrisome thing

0:49:38.040 --> 0:49:42.320
<v Speaker 1>for sort of civil liberties and rights. If that goes away.

0:49:42.920 --> 0:49:45.080
<v Speaker 1>You know, one thing that never ceases to amaze me,

0:49:45.120 --> 0:49:47.640
<v Speaker 1>and I was thinking about during that conversation is just

0:49:48.160 --> 0:49:51.880
<v Speaker 1>how many different types of money there actually are. And

0:49:51.880 --> 0:49:55.359
<v Speaker 1>people say money, but of course, yeah, you know, there's

0:49:55.400 --> 0:49:58.480
<v Speaker 1>so many variations. There's the sort of commercial back end

0:49:58.719 --> 0:50:02.399
<v Speaker 1>money that been always talking about a lot um, there's

0:50:02.440 --> 0:50:06.640
<v Speaker 1>obviously cash, and I don't know, like, I don't know

0:50:06.640 --> 0:50:08.719
<v Speaker 1>what I'm trying to say, but it's it's just remarkable.

0:50:09.000 --> 0:50:10.640
<v Speaker 1>You know. What I think is what I always think

0:50:10.680 --> 0:50:14.120
<v Speaker 1>about is interesting, is that like when people think of money,

0:50:14.200 --> 0:50:16.240
<v Speaker 1>like when they think of like a dollar or a euro,

0:50:16.560 --> 0:50:19.280
<v Speaker 1>I think the first thing that usually comes to mind

0:50:20.200 --> 0:50:23.360
<v Speaker 1>is the physical version. But I realized what I've like

0:50:23.440 --> 0:50:25.839
<v Speaker 1>sort of like come to appreciate over the years is

0:50:26.120 --> 0:50:29.200
<v Speaker 1>the physical version is like the weird freak show thing

0:50:29.280 --> 0:50:32.399
<v Speaker 1>that doesn't really fit into anything else, so we tend

0:50:32.400 --> 0:50:34.920
<v Speaker 1>to they're not the same. And you know, like the

0:50:35.280 --> 0:50:37.920
<v Speaker 1>physical money, the cash that we have like in our pocket,

0:50:38.200 --> 0:50:41.839
<v Speaker 1>that's like this like narrow slice of the money system.

0:50:41.880 --> 0:50:44.480
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't even really make sense. Most money is credit,

0:50:44.560 --> 0:50:47.799
<v Speaker 1>but it's not it's the direct liability of the central bank.

0:50:47.880 --> 0:50:49.560
<v Speaker 1>But that's also strange, because what does it mean to

0:50:49.560 --> 0:50:52.919
<v Speaker 1>be a liability all the other forms of money, whether

0:50:52.960 --> 0:50:54.960
<v Speaker 1>it's the money that I have in bank, whether it's

0:50:54.960 --> 0:50:57.360
<v Speaker 1>the money that I have in penmo, whether it's the

0:50:57.400 --> 0:51:01.040
<v Speaker 1>money that banks have held at the central bank at

0:51:01.040 --> 0:51:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the foot of reserve, that all sort of like fits

0:51:03.880 --> 0:51:07.680
<v Speaker 1>into like this sort of like nice sort of like

0:51:07.840 --> 0:51:10.759
<v Speaker 1>framework of like credit money that is essentially the core

0:51:10.840 --> 0:51:13.360
<v Speaker 1>of the system. And so the money that most people

0:51:13.400 --> 0:51:16.600
<v Speaker 1>think of is like the weird exception and not the

0:51:16.719 --> 0:51:19.920
<v Speaker 1>rule at all. Yeah, I think when you think about

0:51:19.960 --> 0:51:23.600
<v Speaker 1>it that way, the discussions around cd DC make a

0:51:23.600 --> 0:51:26.640
<v Speaker 1>lot more sense, like why central banks would be trying

0:51:26.719 --> 0:51:30.560
<v Speaker 1>to solve the problem basically of cash being such a

0:51:30.600 --> 0:51:34.000
<v Speaker 1>weird thing and serving such a unique role, a unique

0:51:34.000 --> 0:51:38.160
<v Speaker 1>all be a changing role in society, you know. The

0:51:38.160 --> 0:51:40.279
<v Speaker 1>The other thing is, like we talked about privacy. I mean,

0:51:40.280 --> 0:51:42.640
<v Speaker 1>there are some people who are like really see the

0:51:42.719 --> 0:51:47.480
<v Speaker 1>privacy aspects of cash to be a super negative. I mean, like, uh,

0:51:48.000 --> 0:51:50.759
<v Speaker 1>who is it that um can rogue off? I mean

0:51:50.760 --> 0:51:54.360
<v Speaker 1>he wrote a book basically about how awful cash is,

0:51:55.400 --> 0:51:59.960
<v Speaker 1>how it facilitates crime and tax evasion and corruption other

0:52:00.000 --> 0:52:03.440
<v Speaker 1>and stuff. So while there are some people who are like, okay,

0:52:03.560 --> 0:52:07.960
<v Speaker 1>online digital currencies may solve the problem of anonymous payments

0:52:08.000 --> 0:52:10.879
<v Speaker 1>on the internet in the world without cash. Other people

0:52:10.880 --> 0:52:13.520
<v Speaker 1>will say, like, this is really exciting because we can

0:52:13.520 --> 0:52:16.000
<v Speaker 1>get rid of cash and then there's no more anonymous

0:52:16.000 --> 0:52:18.560
<v Speaker 1>payments anymore than we can go against all these ills

0:52:18.640 --> 0:52:21.080
<v Speaker 1>like drug dealing and money laundering and stuff like that.

0:52:21.160 --> 0:52:23.640
<v Speaker 1>So some people see this as a huge opportunity to

0:52:23.880 --> 0:52:25.880
<v Speaker 1>fix what they see is one of the major flaws

0:52:25.880 --> 0:52:29.120
<v Speaker 1>of money right now. I mean. Other people argue also

0:52:29.239 --> 0:52:32.560
<v Speaker 1>that there are less harmful forms of digital cash already

0:52:32.600 --> 0:52:36.400
<v Speaker 1>in existence, such as gift cards issued by Visa and

0:52:36.480 --> 0:52:41.160
<v Speaker 1>MasterCard things like that. Um, okay. Well, clearly there's a

0:52:41.200 --> 0:52:44.000
<v Speaker 1>lot to unpack when it comes to the very nature

0:52:44.120 --> 0:52:47.000
<v Speaker 1>of money, and we will of course keep talking about

0:52:47.000 --> 0:52:49.560
<v Speaker 1>it on All Thoughts. It's a perennial favorite of ours.

0:52:49.640 --> 0:52:53.000
<v Speaker 1>But for now, should we leave it there? Let's save

0:52:53.040 --> 0:52:56.200
<v Speaker 1>it there. This has been another episode of the All

0:52:56.200 --> 0:52:59.080
<v Speaker 1>Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on

0:52:59.120 --> 0:53:02.160
<v Speaker 1>Twitter at tre See All the Way, and I'm Joe

0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:05.200
<v Speaker 1>Wisn't Though. You can follow me at the Stalwart and

0:53:05.360 --> 0:53:09.280
<v Speaker 1>follow our guest Benay on Twitter he's at B Currey.

0:53:09.719 --> 0:53:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Follow our producer Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlton.

0:53:13.360 --> 0:53:16.239
<v Speaker 1>Follow the Bloomberg had of a podcast francesco Leavi at

0:53:16.239 --> 0:53:19.839
<v Speaker 1>Francesca Today, and check out all of our podcasts under

0:53:19.880 --> 0:53:22.400
<v Speaker 1>the handle at podcast Thanks for listening.