1 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:19,119 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. Joe, we like 3 00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 1: to talk about money, don't we. And you know what 4 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 1: I realized the other day, there's Well, we've spoken a 5 00:00:24,320 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: lot about different types of money. So we've done cash, 6 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: We've done historical forms of money, We've done a ton 7 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:36,920 Speaker 1: on bitcoin, ethereum cryptocurrencies. We've even talked about that time 8 00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: you develop your own cryptocurrency. But there's one type of 9 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:44,080 Speaker 1: money that we haven't actually done an episode on yet. 10 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: Tell me more so. There is a type of money 11 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: that sort of straddles the world of digital currencies and 12 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,960 Speaker 1: traditional forms of money, I think, and that is the 13 00:00:57,080 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: central bank digital currency or c d C for short. 14 00:01:03,400 --> 00:01:06,960 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, No, this is an interesting area because, yes, 15 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: alongside the sort of emergence of private, uh independent digital currencies, 16 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: we have seen central banks all around the world do 17 00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 1: some efforts towards implementing their own or creating their own 18 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: piloting projects of essentially having yeah, digital versions of cash. 19 00:01:29,000 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: I guess, I guess you would say. And I think 20 00:01:30,880 --> 00:01:34,080 Speaker 1: China is fairly far along with it's endeavored but I 21 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: don't think any of them have really taken off yet, 22 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,440 Speaker 1: but definitely an area that I think a lot of 23 00:01:39,480 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: people are pretty interested in for a lot of different 24 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: policy And yeah, that's the thing is you wouldn't necessarily 25 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: expect this to be the case, but a lot of 26 00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:54,240 Speaker 1: the digital currency exploration that's going on right now is 27 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: very closely tied to monetary policy. And I have to 28 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: confess before we start, I have never entirely understood the 29 00:02:01,800 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: concept of called central bank digital currencies. I've never quite 30 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 1: understood what the problem central banks are trying to solve is, 31 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,240 Speaker 1: and I've never quite understood how they will function alongside 32 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 1: traditional cash and bank reserves and things like that. But 33 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: I'm happy to say I think we have the perfect 34 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: person to discuss all of this today and to get 35 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 1: into a lot of those themes. So we're gonna be 36 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: talking with Ben Watt. Cray was of course on the 37 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: board of the e c B from two thousand eleven 38 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: to twenty nineteen, and he's now head of the Bank 39 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: for International Settlements Innovation Hub, and that group recently published 40 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:45,920 Speaker 1: a report on cd d c s, part of a 41 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: sort of task force that involved a bunch of central 42 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 1: banks exploring this topic. So I think it's going to 43 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,720 Speaker 1: be a good conversation and hopefully it answers some of 44 00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: the questions that I, at least and probably a lot 45 00:02:58,400 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: of other people have had about central bank digital currencies 46 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 1: for some time. Yeah. No, I'm really excited because I'm 47 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 1: with you in that um, I too have had numerous 48 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: questions about what purpose they serve, what the central banks 49 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 1: see as the reason for launching them. So hopefully we 50 00:03:17,600 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 1: can get a lot of questions answered, and also hopefully, 51 00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:23,000 Speaker 1: you know, maybe we could squeeze in a few questions 52 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:27,399 Speaker 1: about uh just the economy and monetary policy as well, 53 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 1: because of course, Ben, while having served at the ECB 54 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 1: for so long, hopefully we get some thoughts about the 55 00:03:33,880 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: state of the world today, which of course still an 56 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: extraordinary time. Yeah, and I think, weirdly there might be 57 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: some natural overlap between two currencies and what's going on 58 00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:46,520 Speaker 1: right now in the global economy. So, without further ado, 59 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: Ben walk Curay, thank you so much for coming on 60 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: all thoughts welcome. Thank you very much for having me 61 00:03:53,920 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 1: so in the intro. Joe and I both just admitted 62 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:02,480 Speaker 1: to not necessarily understanding digital occurrencies from central banks, maybe 63 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 1: just to begin with, you could sort of explain the concept. 64 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: And maybe one thing that's always confused me is if 65 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:14,120 Speaker 1: we were to see something like a digital dollar or 66 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: a digital euro, how would that differ two For instance, 67 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: me holding a euro or a dollar in a traditional 68 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,880 Speaker 1: electronic bank account, what is it that makes that digital 69 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 1: money different to you know, align in in my bank. 70 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, these are these are excellent questions 71 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: because you may wander, I mean, we're living in a 72 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 1: in the world which is already massively demateralized. Most of money, 73 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 1: I mean more than money is already digital. So might 74 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,480 Speaker 1: wonder why why all of a sudden now we discussing 75 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: digital currency. And so we're here to discuss central bound 76 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 1: digital currency, right CBDC. And so let me focus on 77 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 1: on the on the CB in CBDC, that is a 78 00:05:05,120 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 1: definition of CBDC. It's money that is issued by the 79 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:14,000 Speaker 1: central bank, meaning it's a liability of the central bank. Um, 80 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: it's not the liability of a commercial bank or any 81 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:20,200 Speaker 1: other player. It is digital, so it's not physical like 82 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 1: bank notes, and it's not issued to bonks as part 83 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 1: of monetary policy as we as we know it, which 84 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: is as bank reserves. Right, So bank reserves is as 85 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: if you think about it, it's money that bonks have 86 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 1: on their account with the central bank. It is digital, 87 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:39,280 Speaker 1: so it is central bank digital currency and it has 88 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,400 Speaker 1: been existing for for decades. So here we're talking of 89 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:45,919 Speaker 1: any liability of the central bank which is digital but 90 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 1: not issued to commercial bonks as part of the implementation 91 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: of my type policy, which means to things. Either it 92 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: is digital and issued directly to citizens, so it's a 93 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 1: the equivalent digital equivalent of a bank note, and that 94 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:06,599 Speaker 1: would be entirely new. Or it is issued to commercial bonds, 95 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 1: but not as a deposit on an account, but as 96 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:14,120 Speaker 1: a token for instance, which gives give the answer to 97 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: your initial questions. So what's the what what the question? 98 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:20,640 Speaker 1: We are we're trying to answer what the problem statement? Well, 99 00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 1: there are two problems statements. The first one is what 100 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:27,640 Speaker 1: happens if cash disappears, if citizens don't want to use 101 00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 1: bank notes anymore, and how we happy if the only 102 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:35,359 Speaker 1: way they have to pay for their expenses consumption is 103 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 1: to use commercial money money, should buy bonds to draw 104 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: from their bank accounts? Or do we want to keep 105 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: providing them with central bank money which today doesn't exist 106 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: in a digital form, so that the first question and 107 00:06:48,600 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 1: the second question is what happens if at the core 108 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:56,680 Speaker 1: of the system, banks or financial market infrastructures would need 109 00:06:57,480 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: central mark money to set all the transactions in a 110 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,039 Speaker 1: way that is not an account at the central bank, 111 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:06,280 Speaker 1: and that could be a token for instance. So imagine 112 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 1: a future, maybe a near future, where some financial market 113 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: infrastructures would be um transacting exchanging tokens on on d 114 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: l t s. Right, if you want to keep settling 115 00:07:20,000 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 1: these transactions in central mark money, then you need a 116 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 1: way to either connect the DALT with the traditional payment 117 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:29,920 Speaker 1: infrastructure or to issue a central bank token to the 118 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:33,560 Speaker 1: d LT And that's what we call wholesale CBDC. So 119 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:37,680 Speaker 1: there are two answers. Either it's whole sale CBDC because 120 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: the technology underlying financial infrastructures is changing, or it's retail 121 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 1: CBDC because in some places at least cash may be disappearing. 122 00:07:48,280 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: So these are two separate questions at both ends of 123 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:52,960 Speaker 1: the financial system, at the front end and at the 124 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: back end. First of all, that was very helpful, just 125 00:07:55,600 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 1: sort of overview of what you're doing or what the 126 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: vision is. I guess one way that I sort of 127 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 1: think about it or here, what you're saying is, rather 128 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 1: than seeing the analogy as Okay, here's a money. If 129 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: I have it in a bank, it's a liability of 130 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: a bank. If I have it in some sort of 131 00:08:14,200 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 1: payment app like PayPal or Venmo, that dollar or that 132 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 1: euro is a liability of PayPal or Venmo. This is 133 00:08:21,120 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: more like cash, something that I hold in the wallet, 134 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 1: and something that's a direct liability of the central bank. 135 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:32,320 Speaker 1: So that part makes sense to me. What is the 136 00:08:32,360 --> 00:08:36,160 Speaker 1: fundamental advantage, however, of doing this? So we have cash 137 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 1: that currently exists, we have online money or sort of 138 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: bank liability money as you described it, What from a 139 00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: policy standpoint would in your view, the creation and widespread 140 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: adoption of a digital euro or a digital dollar or 141 00:08:53,520 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: a digital pound. What are the advantages that you see 142 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,960 Speaker 1: for governments and central banks to actually launch them. So 143 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:04,000 Speaker 1: my my answer, and that might might might be surprising 144 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 1: coming from a central banker, but that my answer would 145 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:08,480 Speaker 1: be that it's not even a policy discussion. It is 146 00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: a political discussion. The key question here is are we 147 00:09:13,240 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 1: satisfied if all money used by citizens for their daily 148 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: transactions is commercial money? That is how we satisfied if 149 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 1: the whole functioning, the daily functioning of the economy is 150 00:09:24,679 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: a at the end of conversation between citizens and and banks, 151 00:09:28,760 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 1: right or do we want the central bank as a 152 00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: public institution to be part of it? And what's very 153 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: important here and also for the for the rest of 154 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: our discussion, is that the answer might be different in 155 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,960 Speaker 1: different places. That is, in some places citizens may trust 156 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: and in many places I guess citizens would trust the 157 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: central bank better than visa, master card or Facebook or 158 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 1: city bank. Right in other places or in other corners 159 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: of societies, that might not be the case. And you 160 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: will find many people who who trust city bank more 161 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,280 Speaker 1: better than the central bank, and you would you you 162 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,360 Speaker 1: find people who trust bitcoin more better than the dollars 163 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 1: or the yero. And so the conclusion here is that 164 00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,000 Speaker 1: we have to let to let people decide for themselves 165 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 1: which kind of money they want to use, provided that 166 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: they are well informed on the risks, on the on 167 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:22,839 Speaker 1: what on the implications. But the emerging consensus is that 168 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:27,440 Speaker 1: a substantial fraction of society will ask to keep that 169 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 1: contact with the central bank, which is the ability to 170 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 1: use a direct liability on a public institution under parliamentary 171 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: supervision as part of a political system, and if we 172 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: want to keep that kind of access, then we need 173 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 1: to do CBDC. So that's really interesting because you've framed 174 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,920 Speaker 1: more direct contact between people and the central bank through 175 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 1: cb dcs as an advantage or something desirable. But I 176 00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: know one of the criticisms of digital money is that 177 00:10:57,240 --> 00:11:00,079 Speaker 1: there is a concern that you're in effect reduced in 178 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 1: the role of commercial banks in the economy, and that 179 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 1: might have unintended consequences for the transmission of monetary policy 180 00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: or the way the financial system actually works. Some people 181 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: have talked about the potential to increase bank runs. For instance, 182 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: if people have a central bank issued alternative that's seen 183 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 1: as a safe place to park their money, they might 184 00:11:23,200 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 1: fly fly out of bank deposits and and go into 185 00:11:26,520 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: digital money. How are you thinking about about that particular issue, 186 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 1: How are you thinking about how CBDC might impact the 187 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 1: financial system as it exists today. So that's a that's 188 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: a very important point, Tracy, And that's that's also why 189 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 1: why I'm saying that we need an ecosystem right and contact. 190 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 1: What what people sometimes hear or think the there is 191 00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: no intention by central bonds to to have a monopoly 192 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: on all kinds of money. The economy is are operated 193 00:11:57,320 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: with commercial money today or when you when you when 194 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 1: you buy a beer in a bar, it's very very 195 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 1: likely that you're going to pay either with a credit 196 00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:08,000 Speaker 1: card or with a telephone, and that will be eventually 197 00:12:08,200 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: coming from your bank account, and it's commercial money, that's 198 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:13,439 Speaker 1: not a claim on the central mark, and we're going 199 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 1: to keep it like that, right, So so we'll we'll, we'll, we'll, 200 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:19,240 Speaker 1: we'll keep an ecosystem where you'll have different forms of 201 00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 1: different means of payments, different forms of money, and most 202 00:12:22,600 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: of it will be commercial. The question is do we 203 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: want to keep central mark money at the heart of 204 00:12:26,720 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 1: the system to uh to to to make it stable? Right, 205 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,120 Speaker 1: And one of the of the key considerations that we 206 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: we have in thinking about the future ecosystem is exactly 207 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 1: what you mentioned, which is we don't want CBDC to 208 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: to kill bonks, right. We don't want to go to 209 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: the to the extreme of a system where all economic 210 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: players would use CBDC um and bonds would at best 211 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:56,080 Speaker 1: be kinds of conduits would buy assets or extend credits 212 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: and and fund on the on capital markets, you know, 213 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: narrow banks or or a system of sovereign money at 214 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 1: that it's sometimes called or in Switzerland had a vote, 215 00:13:04,760 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: as you may remember, on some something called Folgal which 216 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 1: was rejected. So that's people that that's something that most 217 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: people don't runt, and that's something that regulators and sattle 218 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:17,319 Speaker 1: bankers don't runt because they see your value in the 219 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:20,800 Speaker 1: existence of commercial bonds as institution who take risk, who 220 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: transform credit, who take maturity risk and credit risk uh 221 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:28,640 Speaker 1: and would do all kinds of financial intermediation in the economy. 222 00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:31,679 Speaker 1: We don't want to kill that system. And so there 223 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,880 Speaker 1: is an active discussion on how to to mitigate the 224 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 1: kind of risks your highlighting treacy, which is that CBDC 225 00:13:39,120 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 1: would take over bank deposits and would would would make 226 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: banks more vulnerable. And there are different answers. We can 227 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: go into the details if you wish, And one of 228 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,439 Speaker 1: the of the important discussions will have in the coming 229 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 1: months and years is what's the best answer if we 230 00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: don't want this to happen. I want to ask take 231 00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: it from the other angle. I mean, one of the 232 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: nie things about cash as we know it. If I 233 00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:06,200 Speaker 1: pay for something in the bar, if I you know, 234 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: go out and meet up with friends and want to 235 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:11,839 Speaker 1: split a check somewhere or anything else. Is that it's 236 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 1: anonymous person a or somewhat anonymous person A can pay 237 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: something to person be without person ce knowing about it. 238 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: And they are all kinds of reasons why people prize privacy. 239 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,000 Speaker 1: I'm curious if in your vision of a c B 240 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 1: d C A, would two people be able to make 241 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 1: a transaction without some third party entity having a sort 242 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: of centralized knowledge about who just made that transaction. And 243 00:14:42,120 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 1: I'm curious in your conversations around with regulators and central bankers, 244 00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: I'm sure you talked to a lot of different groups, 245 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:53,120 Speaker 1: law enforcement agencies about their concerns. Finn send you think 246 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:57,200 Speaker 1: about know your customer, anti monitor uh, anti money laundering laws, 247 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: And I'm curious whether in your converse stations and consultations 248 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: we've also talked to privacy groups about their concern So, UM, yeah, 249 00:15:07,680 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: I mean we've been doing that in particular when last year, UM, 250 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: there was a related discussion not on on CBDC, but 251 00:15:16,080 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 1: on stable coins right um, start starting from liberal right um, 252 00:15:21,280 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: And there has been an active discussion in policy circles 253 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 1: on how to regulate stable coins and the FSB just 254 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 1: came with a report on that with with guidelines on 255 00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:34,560 Speaker 1: on a stable kind of regulation. And privacy is also 256 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 1: a key, a key issue. And by the way, something 257 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: we found out that financial regulators don't often talk to 258 00:15:41,080 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: to privacy regulators or two privacy groups. And so that's uh, 259 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 1: let's say, it might sound like a kind of an 260 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: ancillary discussion, but it's actually very important that this this 261 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: kind of technical innovation forces us to also to read 262 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:57,760 Speaker 1: things the way we we do regulation and to connect 263 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:02,200 Speaker 1: to connect silos right which which until recently weren't connected 264 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: at all. And so and so we are talking now 265 00:16:05,000 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: with privacy regulators and with privacy groups. And that's an 266 00:16:08,920 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 1: instance of choices that have to make that have to 267 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,640 Speaker 1: be made by by society and and and through a 268 00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: political process. Because on the one hand, you have a demand, 269 00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: you have demand for privacy which is there and which 270 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:25,000 Speaker 1: is absolutely legitimate, and which is already in some places 271 00:16:25,040 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: like Europe very much unshrined and had hard wired into 272 00:16:28,720 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 1: lower with with with GDP are in particular. But on 273 00:16:31,960 --> 00:16:34,640 Speaker 1: the other hand, you also have a regulation and and 274 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: and and and laws against money wandering, against the financing 275 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: of terrorism, etcetera, which are equally important, right, and so 276 00:16:43,080 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: so any any CBDC architecture will have to strike a 277 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,720 Speaker 1: balance between these two aspirations and the exact the way 278 00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: we turn the dial. I imagine you should be a 279 00:16:53,160 --> 00:16:56,040 Speaker 1: political discussion, because I I don't see how central bankers 280 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 1: or bank supervisors could decide on on the on that 281 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,040 Speaker 1: kind of things. It has to be political discussion. And 282 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:04,920 Speaker 1: again there are ways to reconcile. So for instance, I'm 283 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,000 Speaker 1: just giving an example, so I'm not I'm not saying 284 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 1: that's the way to go, but just to illustrate, you 285 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 1: could imagine a system where CBDC would be distributed by banks. Right, 286 00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 1: so the front end would be banks. You would keep 287 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,280 Speaker 1: talking to your bank. You wouldn't you wouldn't go directly 288 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:22,480 Speaker 1: to the to the FED or the HKm, MAY or 289 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 1: the or the E c B. You would get your 290 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 1: CBDC from your bank, just as you get your bank 291 00:17:27,440 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: notes from your A T M. So exactly the same 292 00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: as today. Banks would buy a given quantity of CBDC 293 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:37,479 Speaker 1: from the central Bank using their bank reserves, just as 294 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:40,600 Speaker 1: they buy bank knows today. And see, the central bank 295 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,680 Speaker 1: could regulate the amount of CBDC for monetary policy purposes, 296 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: but the central bank would not know exactly to which 297 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 1: CBDC has been distributed, and that would be subject to 298 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: m L and c FT and and generally no customers 299 00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,879 Speaker 1: diligence and I know your client client rules just as 300 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,480 Speaker 1: any transaction today. So that's a possible way that do 301 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: reconcile different aspects. You mentioned Libra briefly, which is Facebook's 302 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:25,640 Speaker 1: attempt at a at a stable coin, and this sort 303 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: of reminds me of of another big discussion when it 304 00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 1: comes to c b d C, and I guess part 305 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: of it is that if you're going to launch digital money, 306 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: even if you're a central bank, you're going to have 307 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 1: to have some sort of payment system that goes along 308 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 1: with it. And so central banks are going to have 309 00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: to decide whether to build and run their own payment 310 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:49,040 Speaker 1: systems or maybe to team up with companies in the 311 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:52,680 Speaker 1: private sector who can do that for them. I'm curious. 312 00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: Private corporations like Facebook are pretty good head technology. How 313 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 1: do central bank compete against companies like that like a Facebook, 314 00:19:04,520 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: or how do they work together with them for the 315 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: payment system. So we shouldn't be competing against against Facebook 316 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:13,919 Speaker 1: because we are not in the same line of business right, 317 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,520 Speaker 1: we're absolutely not in the same line of business and 318 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 1: and in the sense that's so if if I may 319 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 1: take a step back, that's that's exactly why these um 320 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 1: You mentioned the report which was issued by seven central 321 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: banks together with the bis UM, and that's a working 322 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,000 Speaker 1: group I was culturing with a certainty from the Bank 323 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: of England. It started exactly with the consideration that we 324 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,040 Speaker 1: we central bankers, have to come back to first principles 325 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,119 Speaker 1: UM and and too often the discussion on digital money 326 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:47,359 Speaker 1: digital currency UM started from the wrong place, like started 327 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 1: from the technological end of the discussion. Are we going 328 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: to do CBDC using blockchain? And if it's a blockchain, 329 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,400 Speaker 1: is that going to be corder or hyper ledger or 330 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,840 Speaker 1: whatever else, which is an important discussion in due time, 331 00:20:00,400 --> 00:20:02,680 Speaker 1: but it's not it's not the right the right place 332 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: to start from. We want to start from first principles. 333 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 1: And as a central banker, I would say our job 334 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: is to is twofold, is to ensure price stability or 335 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 1: monetized stability, meaning that you should have the ways and 336 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:22,360 Speaker 1: means to implement your monetipe policy, whichever moneytype policy you've decided. 337 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,040 Speaker 1: As a as a Monetipe Policy Committee. That's the first thing, 338 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,119 Speaker 1: and CBDC should not hamper that. And if it can help, 339 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 1: it's even better. We can discuss it later. And the 340 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: second thing is financial stability. And an essential part of 341 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 1: financial stability is the existence of core payment systems at 342 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:43,280 Speaker 1: the heart of the financial infrastructure, which connects financial institutions, 343 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,959 Speaker 1: which connect jurisdictions, and which a low real time settlement 344 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: in central bank money. Right, and so the key role 345 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 1: of the central banks really is at the heart of 346 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: the system to provide stability. And we don't want to 347 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: take over. And there are many many things, most things 348 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,400 Speaker 1: that we we won't we wouldn't do well and we're 349 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 1: not going to do so. To give an obvious example, 350 00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:09,800 Speaker 1: if CBDC comes as as a token, most likely is 351 00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: going to be handled in in wallets, right, So you 352 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,919 Speaker 1: would have a wallet on your phone, say with with 353 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:19,720 Speaker 1: CBDC with central bank tokens in it. That's not something 354 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,359 Speaker 1: central banks should be doing. It's it's very obvious to 355 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 1: all of her. That's wallets are something for the private 356 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,200 Speaker 1: sector to do, right and so and so there there 357 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,600 Speaker 1: there is room for everyone. There is room for everyone. 358 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,560 Speaker 1: The key thing is any form of commercial money has 359 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: to be regulated, right, and there there might be a 360 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:41,439 Speaker 1: financial stability considerations which would lead us to impose some 361 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,040 Speaker 1: requirements like settlement in central bank money. But apart from that, 362 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: we need the private sector to innovate. All that innovation 363 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 1: will come from the friend sector. I'm not I'm not 364 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: aware that central bankers are particularly good that you know, 365 00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: at finding new technologies. That's not what we do. Okay, 366 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: Can I ask you a question? I mean, you mentioned 367 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 1: stable coins. We talked about Libra, and I think that 368 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:08,639 Speaker 1: there is a sort of spectrum of what we see 369 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:13,480 Speaker 1: in the stable coins space, from sort of extremely projects 370 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: that attempt to be very uh legitimate Facebook as Facebook 371 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: Libra is probably one of them, to others that are 372 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 1: probably a little dice here. What is the regulatory case 373 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 1: for the existence of stable clinates because central bankers regulators 374 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,199 Speaker 1: have been pretty permissive it seems of them for a while. 375 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 1: And I'm curious why from your perspective they're beneficial and 376 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,000 Speaker 1: why uh sort of people should be able to use 377 00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:45,919 Speaker 1: a currency on the distributed ledger somewhere that is ultimately 378 00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:51,920 Speaker 1: backed up by a sort of licensed, licensed bank. Well, 379 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,639 Speaker 1: I wouldn't really see um stable coins as currencies, so 380 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 1: it's it's a little bit of a misnomber um. I 381 00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: would see stable coins as um as new payment systems 382 00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:08,040 Speaker 1: which are very well, very integrated, back to end, a 383 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: close loop payment systems. So it's a it's it's a 384 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,160 Speaker 1: little bit different from the kind of innovation that we've 385 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 1: seen until recently in the payment world, which was really 386 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: at the front end, right, it was about, you know, 387 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,960 Speaker 1: providing you with a better interface, providing you with an 388 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 1: interface on your smartphone and son and so forth, And 389 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 1: all of a sudden we see payment architectures which are 390 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:32,840 Speaker 1: entirely private, which which are encompassing and go and include 391 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 1: the the back end, that is the pipeline that will 392 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,440 Speaker 1: that will bring money from one place to another, right, 393 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: which wasn't the case so far, and um, and that 394 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: might be okay. That might be okay if it's well regulated, 395 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: if consumers or investors are protected and know the risk 396 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: the risks they are taking, that might be okay to 397 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,560 Speaker 1: have that kind of payment systems. I don't see I 398 00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,680 Speaker 1: don't really see that as the currency. I think that 399 00:23:57,760 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 1: as a new means of payment which can be convenient, 400 00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,720 Speaker 1: but which also raised as risks. And these risks have 401 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 1: been highlighted last year in the in the G seven 402 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: report and stable coins and and uh and and recently 403 00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,680 Speaker 1: by the by the FSB UM and the risks come 404 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,000 Speaker 1: from the fact that these new projects are are global. 405 00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: Liberal is an obvious example. And so there are risks 406 00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: to the for instance, to the to the functioning of 407 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,560 Speaker 1: the international monetized system which are entirely new, which you 408 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 1: you didn't have with earlier forms of cryptocurrency. Like what 409 00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: happens if you have a major stable coin which is 410 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: being issued and you start to see substitution with with 411 00:24:36,680 --> 00:24:40,199 Speaker 1: local currency in some smaller jurisdiction. That would be a 412 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 1: concern for that jurisdiction, would be a concerned for the 413 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:44,760 Speaker 1: I m F, would be a concern for the World Bank. 414 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:47,359 Speaker 1: And that's something that we want to discuss. So so 415 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 1: you see new risks coming, right, But there is no 416 00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 1: reason why a priori stable coins should be h rejected 417 00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: and and and and and let me let me just 418 00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: as a just for for the record mentioned there are 419 00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: other forms of stable coin which hardly anyone speaks about, 420 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 1: which are wholesale stable coins. Right, imagine a coin that 421 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: would be issued by a by a large commercial bank 422 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: to settle transaction within a few a small group of clients, 423 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,400 Speaker 1: and that would be backed by by central bank money. 424 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: That's a stable coin. It's much less of a discussion 425 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,960 Speaker 1: because it's not going to reach billions of people, but 426 00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:28,400 Speaker 1: only a handful of commercial banks. So that's pretty easy 427 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,760 Speaker 1: to to to understand and to regulate. But it's also coming. 428 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,560 Speaker 1: My understanding is that one of the big debates about 429 00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 1: digital money from central banks is whether it would strengthen 430 00:25:40,080 --> 00:25:43,359 Speaker 1: the transmission of monetary policy. So, on the one hand, 431 00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 1: if you have CBDC, central banks can directly influence interest 432 00:25:49,960 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: rates on digital money and they basically control it. But 433 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 1: on the other hand, your as we discussed potentially setting 434 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,760 Speaker 1: up a competitor to bank deposits, and we're not exactly 435 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,840 Speaker 1: sure whether or not that might change the sensitivity of 436 00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,080 Speaker 1: the demand for that type of money to interest rates. 437 00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,200 Speaker 1: I be curious to get your views on is how 438 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:16,040 Speaker 1: do you see CBDC interacting with monetary policy. That's a 439 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: really good question. It's a little bit the elephant in 440 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: the room because that's a it's a really good question, 441 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:24,199 Speaker 1: and that's it's a it's a question that most central 442 00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:28,400 Speaker 1: banks are working hard to not to answer and see, 443 00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:31,359 Speaker 1: I take the report we've been we've been discussing. We 444 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: we we kind of allude to that, but we are 445 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: very early on the front. We say we're not going 446 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 1: to discuss it, right. And there is a simple reason 447 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: to that that, which is that monetary policy is a 448 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: is a different mandate and it's it's it's very national, 449 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 1: it's very domestic, and it's being decided in different places 450 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:54,679 Speaker 1: like I mean monetary policy committees, um, and so central 451 00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: bonds don't want to mix up the two discussions because 452 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 1: if CBDC comes and the way they will use it 453 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: for money type to do monetype policy is something that 454 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 1: they want to decide for themselves. And so the case 455 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:13,080 Speaker 1: for international cooperation today is not on the monotype policy side. 456 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: It's on the payment side, because we want the payment 457 00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:20,520 Speaker 1: architecture to work smoothly and it is global, right uh. 458 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,880 Speaker 1: And this is why, this is why you already see 459 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: and you're going to see a lot more international coordination 460 00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:30,280 Speaker 1: on CBDC and on digital money generally because payments are 461 00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 1: the the backbone of the of the international financial architecture, 462 00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,080 Speaker 1: and so you won't go to see coordination for the 463 00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: system to be stable. Well. Monetype policy is a sovereign matter, 464 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: is decided locally people and and and governors want to 465 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: talk to their and to report to their to their parliaments, 466 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:50,600 Speaker 1: right to US Congress, to the European Parliament, et cetera. 467 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,320 Speaker 1: That's not something they want to discuss in the open 468 00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 1: air and internationally. So so that was a little bit 469 00:27:56,760 --> 00:28:00,280 Speaker 1: of a sociological or political you know, the tour to 470 00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 1: to to explain, to explain to you why we're not 471 00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,160 Speaker 1: discussing it now. Of course, it is an issue. Of course, 472 00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:06,800 Speaker 1: it is an issue that central banks will have to 473 00:28:07,080 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 1: to decide for themselves. And I really see a key 474 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,840 Speaker 1: question coming for for each and every central bank to decide, 475 00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:20,520 Speaker 1: which is do you want to do CBDC for monetary 476 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,640 Speaker 1: policy reasons or do you want to make it as 477 00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: neutral as possible on the way with respect to the 478 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,400 Speaker 1: way you implement your monetype policy. And that's a decision 479 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,199 Speaker 1: to take early on, because it impacts your architecture, It 480 00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: impacts the way you're going to do CBDC. Right, if 481 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 1: you want CBDC to be accessed by your broad range 482 00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,760 Speaker 1: of economic players and if you want to be able 483 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: to control both the quantity and the price of that 484 00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 1: particular form of money, which is what monet type policy 485 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:55,560 Speaker 1: is about. Then it's different from deciding that you you're 486 00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:58,200 Speaker 1: going to issue a given amount of CBDC and then 487 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,880 Speaker 1: you you don't want to know where it's going, for instance. 488 00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:03,920 Speaker 1: And so there is a potential to use CBDC in 489 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,440 Speaker 1: a kind of tailor made way right in a kind 490 00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:11,360 Speaker 1: of very very granular way to um to bring money 491 00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 1: to particular places, to uh to to to pump money 492 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,560 Speaker 1: down the last mile as a as my colleague I 493 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,480 Speaker 1: was in constance has has one said, that's that's that's 494 00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,360 Speaker 1: something that today's Central Bank is very much want to 495 00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,080 Speaker 1: see money being pumped down the last mile and and 496 00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:30,680 Speaker 1: reaching all players, all corners of society. UM. But if 497 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,440 Speaker 1: you want to do CBDC to do that, then you 498 00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 1: probably have to to design your CBDC in a different way. 499 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 1: And and Central Box have not decided yet really, so 500 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,360 Speaker 1: we're a little bit at a cross roads there, and 501 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:46,640 Speaker 1: different Central box may take different decisions. And so my 502 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,160 Speaker 1: person my personal take if you're which which doesn't commit anyone, 503 00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 1: and I'm not even doing money type policy because I'm 504 00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 1: had the bi s so it's it's really my personal 505 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 1: view is that it is worth reflecting on that because 506 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,840 Speaker 1: we we're kind of at the end of a cycle 507 00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: where monetipe policy. We've made money type policy implementation incredibly 508 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:10,440 Speaker 1: sophisticated since the Great Financial Crisis and again now through 509 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: the years of corner crisis. But most of it, if 510 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,600 Speaker 1: not all of it, he goes through capital markets, right, 511 00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,720 Speaker 1: So we have very different sophisticated ways, complex ways to 512 00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: influence on capital, on financial market expectations, and on and 513 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,560 Speaker 1: and and on pumping money in and I out of 514 00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:31,960 Speaker 1: capital markets. But at some point that's hitting the limits 515 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 1: because our places in the economy where money just which 516 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:38,720 Speaker 1: money just cannot cannot reach. It also might create political 517 00:30:38,760 --> 00:30:43,280 Speaker 1: issues because incredibly incredibly societies see monetype policy as being 518 00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:47,680 Speaker 1: a conversation between central bonks and and capital market participants 519 00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:51,600 Speaker 1: um and they feel excluded from that conversation. So that 520 00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:53,320 Speaker 1: that was my my last word that the e c 521 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:55,360 Speaker 1: B last year, in my last speech in my last 522 00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 1: meeting at the ECB, the conclusion was that if if 523 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: money type policy remains a conversation between central banks and 524 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,960 Speaker 1: capital markets, then we shouldn't be surprised if people don't 525 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:08,120 Speaker 1: trust us, right, And that's a little bit what we've seen. 526 00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,040 Speaker 1: And CBC can be a way to reconnect central banks 527 00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: with with people if it's if he's done well. But 528 00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 1: some central banks might want to go there, so we 529 00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,840 Speaker 1: don't want to go there, and that's fine. They're all different. 530 00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 1: I mean, this might be a good moment to sort 531 00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:22,800 Speaker 1: of seg a little bit to some of the bigger 532 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 1: policy questions that the world faces right now. But it 533 00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,280 Speaker 1: seems to me like a point that you've made which 534 00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 1: I find really interesting, and a few of your answers 535 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,080 Speaker 1: is like a lot of these are just political questions, 536 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,880 Speaker 1: and political questions have to be made to some extent 537 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:39,240 Speaker 1: outside of the central bank. But I guess one of 538 00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 1: them is do we want monetary authorities to have the 539 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: ability to more easily put buying power in the hands 540 00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:52,040 Speaker 1: of normal people, not just functioned through capital markets. And 541 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 1: it sounds like the sort of CBDC conversation that the 542 00:31:56,000 --> 00:32:00,000 Speaker 1: world is having is sort of a parallel potential conversation 543 00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 1: to this question of do we want to expand the 544 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 1: tools that central banks have to get people money? Yeah? 545 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:08,840 Speaker 1: I would, I would agree with that, And I mean 546 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,080 Speaker 1: the fact that there are political dimensions. So it doesn't 547 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: imply that central banks should defer to two politicians, right CBDC. 548 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,040 Speaker 1: CBDC is about the future of money, it's about the 549 00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:23,040 Speaker 1: future of multi policy, it's about the future of payments, 550 00:32:23,400 --> 00:32:25,360 Speaker 1: and so central banks should be on on top of 551 00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 1: that discussion, which which which they are now. But what 552 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,719 Speaker 1: I guess what we're both saying is there are dimensions, 553 00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,239 Speaker 1: there are some trade offs where you need to to 554 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,480 Speaker 1: get a sense of of the preferences of society. You 555 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,800 Speaker 1: need to you need to take the pulse of society. 556 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,840 Speaker 1: And that's why in all places CBDC will require um 557 00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 1: extensive consultations, which is the way the for instance, the 558 00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,440 Speaker 1: Riggs Bank in in Stockholm has taken, which is always 559 00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: easy b now is taking. You need to consult a lot. 560 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 1: That's not something that you want to do under closed 561 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 1: door in a in a central somewhere. You that's something 562 00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 1: where many dimensions where which need their engagements with society 563 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:11,440 Speaker 1: at large. So I know there's been some discussion on 564 00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 1: potentially tearing interest rates when it comes to cb d 565 00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 1: C and and maybe even allowing the Central Bank to 566 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:23,720 Speaker 1: impose negative rates on digital money that they issue. That 567 00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 1: probably says more about where we are in terms of 568 00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,000 Speaker 1: unconventional monetary policy as a whole than it does necessarily 569 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 1: about c B d C. But maybe that should be 570 00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 1: a que too, to broaden the conversation and talk a 571 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:41,200 Speaker 1: little bit about what's going on in the world at 572 00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:43,960 Speaker 1: the moment. I think when you were at the ECB, 573 00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: there was an assumption that monetary policy would eventually get 574 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,239 Speaker 1: back to normal, But it seems increasingly likely now that 575 00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:55,800 Speaker 1: low interest rates and asset purchase programs, things like that 576 00:33:55,840 --> 00:33:59,480 Speaker 1: are here to stay. Do you think we're ever going 577 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:03,240 Speaker 1: to get back to the days of boring central banking 578 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:06,560 Speaker 1: where we would never be talking about negative interest rates 579 00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:11,680 Speaker 1: when it comes to CBDC. Yeah, well that's truely through 580 00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 1: that term. I'm now old enough that I remember the 581 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:19,560 Speaker 1: days where interest rates were positive. Le see, these were 582 00:34:19,600 --> 00:34:22,480 Speaker 1: the good old days. And the year the Corona, the 583 00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:26,320 Speaker 1: Corona crisis, the Corona shock as there has disrupted everything. 584 00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,160 Speaker 1: So I think it's fair to her, it's fair to 585 00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:31,879 Speaker 1: say that there is no prospect, there is no short 586 00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:37,280 Speaker 1: term prospect of money typolicy normalization anytime soon because of 587 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 1: the the amounts extraordinary amount of uncertainty that we have, 588 00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:43,640 Speaker 1: which which comes from from outside the economy, which comes 589 00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:48,440 Speaker 1: from the UM from the cycle of lockdowns and UH 590 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:51,439 Speaker 1: and and waves, etcetera. And so as long as we 591 00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:54,760 Speaker 1: will have this kind of waves and uncertainty on lockdowns, 592 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,239 Speaker 1: there will be the economy will be in a state 593 00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 1: for very high fragility because UH expectations will because there 594 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,360 Speaker 1: is no way that they are that that that businesses 595 00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,440 Speaker 1: or consumers can form expectations about the future, so that 596 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 1: that that that kind of compresses the time horizon of 597 00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,840 Speaker 1: of both businesses and consumers in a way that that 598 00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,000 Speaker 1: makes it very very difficult to to plan for the 599 00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:22,000 Speaker 1: long term, which is what central banks should be doing 600 00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:24,400 Speaker 1: now in there. If you think of the kind of 601 00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:29,520 Speaker 1: assignment of roles in the in the economic policymaking world, 602 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,799 Speaker 1: you would expect central bankers to care for the long term, 603 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,399 Speaker 1: while politicians are kind of prisoners of their of short 604 00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:42,040 Speaker 1: term incentives and constraints and political cycles and underlike UM 605 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:43,920 Speaker 1: and you would like central bankers to think for the 606 00:35:44,040 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 1: for the future. But today's count because it's just too uncertain. 607 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,880 Speaker 1: So it's very difficult to to UH to to to 608 00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,000 Speaker 1: kind of make make plans about the future of my 609 00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,839 Speaker 1: entire policy, and these I think the only year kind 610 00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,920 Speaker 1: of a sensible conclusion is that central banks need my 611 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,120 Speaker 1: semum flexibility to to coop result kind of outcomes, So 612 00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,760 Speaker 1: they need to keep to keep all their options open. 613 00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,400 Speaker 1: So I mean, because of this sort of extraordinary moment, 614 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,279 Speaker 1: and you mentioned it, I think in one of your 615 00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,879 Speaker 1: first answers were in an era in which they're sort 616 00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:20,240 Speaker 1: of a perception but prior also reality that there really 617 00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,160 Speaker 1: is only so much, so many tools at the central 618 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:28,360 Speaker 1: bank's disposal. Right now, we have more people talking about, okay, 619 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:33,240 Speaker 1: we need more aggressive fiscal policy across the developed world. 620 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,320 Speaker 1: Even the I m F has said as such a 621 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: do you believe um that that is the case, that 622 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:43,040 Speaker 1: there is an argument for fiscal authorities to do more? 623 00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,320 Speaker 1: But more importantly, do you think sort of going forward, 624 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,080 Speaker 1: and even as this crisis hopefully sort of phades into 625 00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,279 Speaker 1: the rear view mirror, do you think it's worth a 626 00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:55,040 Speaker 1: sort of broader rethink about a more permanent role for 627 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,200 Speaker 1: UH fiscal policy in terms of macro stabilization, such that 628 00:36:59,239 --> 00:37:03,720 Speaker 1: we're not really depended on central banks to balance the economy. 629 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:08,080 Speaker 1: Every time, you know, things things go bad, it's there. 630 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,640 Speaker 1: It's a pity that you would need their global pandemics 631 00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 1: to to have that discussion, right, I mean, I mean 632 00:37:15,040 --> 00:37:17,440 Speaker 1: it has started a little bit before, but it does 633 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:21,120 Speaker 1: feel as though the pandemic has accelerated the discussion of nothing. Yeah, 634 00:37:21,120 --> 00:37:23,280 Speaker 1: I mean that there are there are I think the discussion. 635 00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,759 Speaker 1: I mean it it looks different in different places, and 636 00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,879 Speaker 1: we're thinking there. In the US, you have a very 637 00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 1: decent tradition of stabilization policies, both on the monetary side 638 00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,879 Speaker 1: and on the fiscal side, and of a good, good 639 00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:42,320 Speaker 1: complimentarity between monetary policy and fiscal policy, and the economy 640 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:46,279 Speaker 1: is flexible and resilient and strong enough that you you 641 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:49,320 Speaker 1: can stay in that mode, right, because the economy always 642 00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:52,080 Speaker 1: comes back, and so you're not stuck in a state 643 00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:54,520 Speaker 1: of the world where you would have to to do 644 00:37:54,640 --> 00:37:57,880 Speaker 1: a very active monetype policy and very active fiscal policy 645 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,200 Speaker 1: at the same time, because the economy it comes back. Right. 646 00:38:01,800 --> 00:38:04,839 Speaker 1: It's more difficult in Europe for different reasons, one reason 647 00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 1: being that we've we've never been able so I say 648 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:11,359 Speaker 1: we as a European right, uh now, we've never been 649 00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,720 Speaker 1: able to find the right fiscal framework, and so fiscal 650 00:38:14,760 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 1: policy has never been has never been very helpful in 651 00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:23,839 Speaker 1: helping the ECB manager cycle, and it's becoming more helpful now. 652 00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:26,840 Speaker 1: And you've discussed it with with my former colleague of 653 00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:30,080 Speaker 1: it or Constanzo, and I agree with with a lot 654 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,360 Speaker 1: of what what he told you that is now happening, 655 00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 1: and it's a it's a very good development. But the 656 00:38:35,320 --> 00:38:37,880 Speaker 1: other reason is that the economy is in Europe is 657 00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:41,399 Speaker 1: not nearly as flexible than the US. So if you're 658 00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:44,520 Speaker 1: into that kind of of extraordinary situation where you need 659 00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:47,759 Speaker 1: to to turn the dial and and have a very 660 00:38:47,800 --> 00:38:50,800 Speaker 1: active type policy and fiscal policy at the same time, 661 00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:54,560 Speaker 1: because the economy is not responding, you don't know how 662 00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:56,480 Speaker 1: much how how much time it will come to go 663 00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:00,000 Speaker 1: back to normal, right, because the economy is not facile 664 00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,319 Speaker 1: bab enough to do it by itself. So that's that's 665 00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:05,799 Speaker 1: a different situation, which also calls for a little bit 666 00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,719 Speaker 1: of caution, right because you can be stuck there in 667 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,480 Speaker 1: that kind of in that kind of state of the 668 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:14,080 Speaker 1: world for much longer. And so so far, so good. 669 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:16,920 Speaker 1: I mean, the what what what fiscal authorities and my 670 00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,360 Speaker 1: entire authorities have done so far is exactly what you 671 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,960 Speaker 1: were suggesting, And what what you what we want to 672 00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,239 Speaker 1: see that is good complimentarity between my entire policy and 673 00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,120 Speaker 1: fiscal policy. Even in emerging markets economy is by the way, 674 00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:32,560 Speaker 1: you are now seeing some I mean many emerging market 675 00:39:32,600 --> 00:39:37,120 Speaker 1: economies UM doing quee and the government is issuing more 676 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,279 Speaker 1: domestic depth I mean domestic currency, the nominated depth, which 677 00:39:40,280 --> 00:39:43,600 Speaker 1: is santral banc and partly buy UM and that's the 678 00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:46,399 Speaker 1: way to kind of strengthen the complimentarity between my Thai 679 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 1: policy and fiscal policy, and that has given them much 680 00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:53,920 Speaker 1: more policy space. So you're seeing that happening in different places. 681 00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,360 Speaker 1: The question is what happens if that is that a 682 00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: situation that can last for many years, because then depth 683 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,960 Speaker 1: public depth will be building up. Private depth will be 684 00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,640 Speaker 1: building up as well. Some of it will be transferred 685 00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,799 Speaker 1: onto the balance sheet of the government UM and at 686 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:15,080 Speaker 1: some point, whatever the efforts of the central bank, the 687 00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:17,520 Speaker 1: depth will be will be will be so high that 688 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,719 Speaker 1: you will need some kind of rescheduling or restructuring. UH. 689 00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,680 Speaker 1: And so if if if the situation with the virus 690 00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:27,480 Speaker 1: states as it is for a number of for another 691 00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:32,520 Speaker 1: a few years, which of course nobody nobody hopes what 692 00:40:32,640 --> 00:40:35,960 Speaker 1: today looks like good corporation between moneti policy and fiscal 693 00:40:36,040 --> 00:40:40,440 Speaker 1: policy and and respectful of everyone's mandate right, not not 694 00:40:40,560 --> 00:40:44,280 Speaker 1: harmful to the independence of central banks. That's something that 695 00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,360 Speaker 1: that would become much more difficult to sustain because you 696 00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:51,040 Speaker 1: will have to start discussions on some some ways to 697 00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:54,080 Speaker 1: to to share the fiscal burden. And these discussions can 698 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:56,880 Speaker 1: be politically very difficult and very harmful. And and it's 699 00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,400 Speaker 1: already starting in the in the developing world. I mean, 700 00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:03,320 Speaker 1: there is an a discussion on depth restructuring and depth 701 00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,480 Speaker 1: depth initiatives in the in the developing world. M if 702 00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,640 Speaker 1: we stay there for a few more years, that will 703 00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:12,719 Speaker 1: gradually come to the developed world, and that will that 704 00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:17,319 Speaker 1: will come with huge political difficulties. So um, I guess 705 00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,200 Speaker 1: the only conclusion is that you want to you want 706 00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,040 Speaker 1: a vaccine to be found very quickly. That's a conclusion. 707 00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,440 Speaker 1: I think we can all agree with that. Definitely, we 708 00:41:25,520 --> 00:41:39,319 Speaker 1: all agree with that. Yeah, you mentioned the interview we 709 00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:43,040 Speaker 1: did with your former colleague bitour Constantio, and one of 710 00:41:43,080 --> 00:41:46,200 Speaker 1: the things that came up quite a bit in that 711 00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:52,040 Speaker 1: conversation was inflation or the lack thereof. Rather than ask 712 00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 1: you the same question that we ask bitore, which is 713 00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,719 Speaker 1: do central banks understand inflation? I want to ask a 714 00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,799 Speaker 1: slightly different one, which is, why do you think that 715 00:42:02,080 --> 00:42:07,000 Speaker 1: consumers or the average person's perception of inflation seems to 716 00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:11,640 Speaker 1: differ from what central banks are looking at? And I 717 00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,360 Speaker 1: think there's a stat out there that um, according to 718 00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:19,120 Speaker 1: European Commission Survey, households thought annual inflation was something like 719 00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:24,399 Speaker 1: nine percent between two thousand four and whereas we all 720 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,440 Speaker 1: know having this conversation now, that inflation was actually below 721 00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:31,000 Speaker 1: the two percent target and quite far below it. So 722 00:42:31,640 --> 00:42:34,839 Speaker 1: where do you think that discrepancy is actually coming from, Well, 723 00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 1: it comes from there. The way statisticians and central and 724 00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,640 Speaker 1: central bankers look at inflation is a is very is 725 00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:44,640 Speaker 1: from a southern feet right. It's a bird's eye view 726 00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:49,120 Speaker 1: on everything that's going on into the economy across social groups, 727 00:42:49,160 --> 00:42:53,000 Speaker 1: across age groups, across different places. And it's so it 728 00:42:53,040 --> 00:42:58,040 Speaker 1: totally kind of ignores the diversity of consumption habits, um 729 00:42:58,160 --> 00:43:00,840 Speaker 1: and the and also the fact that you buy different 730 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:05,080 Speaker 1: different goods and services at different frequencies over time. So 731 00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:11,000 Speaker 1: individuals are are biased towards overweighting goods and services that 732 00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:14,000 Speaker 1: they buy very often like like obviously, I mean food 733 00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:18,640 Speaker 1: and dairy and and transports and and and refueling your 734 00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,600 Speaker 1: car and that kind of things, while and the price 735 00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:25,120 Speaker 1: of her of smartphones might be collapsing. I mean, that's 736 00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:28,239 Speaker 1: not something you buy very often. So when people ask you, 737 00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,759 Speaker 1: come and ask you about inflation, you're not going to 738 00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:33,960 Speaker 1: think about that. So there are huge cognitive biases which 739 00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,279 Speaker 1: which are which are just normal, and central banks have 740 00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:40,319 Speaker 1: not really made the effort to kind of translate their 741 00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:44,319 Speaker 1: concepts into concepts that people can relate to. And I 742 00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:47,480 Speaker 1: think that's a big challenge for the future. That central 743 00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,720 Speaker 1: banks are absolutely right to to look at the economy 744 00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,680 Speaker 1: in the aggregate at a at an aggregate level, but 745 00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:57,040 Speaker 1: when they when they when they formulate their policies and 746 00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,520 Speaker 1: they're and their targets are in terms of inflation, they've 747 00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:03,440 Speaker 1: got to translate it in a way that people can understand. 748 00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:07,319 Speaker 1: And we're not doing that, you know, Without getting too 749 00:44:07,440 --> 00:44:11,880 Speaker 1: much into specific actions being taken by major central banks 750 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,719 Speaker 1: right now, you know, I want to just talk a 751 00:44:13,760 --> 00:44:17,040 Speaker 1: little bit more about this sort of intellectual landscape, and 752 00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:22,160 Speaker 1: we see this movement towards um policies or frameworks that 753 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:26,160 Speaker 1: seek to avoid past mistakes and the FED is engaging 754 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,279 Speaker 1: or and now it's the new framework of average inflation 755 00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:34,759 Speaker 1: targeting UM combined with a sort of more robust forward guidance. 756 00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,760 Speaker 1: You've done a lot of work on these types of things, 757 00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:42,160 Speaker 1: uh in your career. Do you see this as evolution 758 00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:47,080 Speaker 1: average inflation targeting to avoid premature hikes in the future. 759 00:44:47,640 --> 00:44:50,719 Speaker 1: And do you think there's more that central banks can 760 00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:55,400 Speaker 1: do with sort of state contingent for for guidance, very 761 00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,960 Speaker 1: clear levels that they set before which they would consider 762 00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,840 Speaker 1: hiking raids or do you think the sort of current 763 00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:05,600 Speaker 1: or they sort of I guess at the state of 764 00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:07,200 Speaker 1: the art, so to speak, in terms of what can 765 00:45:07,239 --> 00:45:11,120 Speaker 1: be under this tour. Yeah. Look, look, I don't want 766 00:45:11,160 --> 00:45:14,359 Speaker 1: to I don't want to comment on specific decisions by 767 00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,239 Speaker 1: specific central banks. UM. I mean you can you can 768 00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,919 Speaker 1: put very sophisticated words and concepts on that. I think 769 00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,279 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, or it's a lot 770 00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:25,920 Speaker 1: of what is being done today in different places amounts 771 00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,920 Speaker 1: to just making sure that you will have maximum flexibility 772 00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:33,160 Speaker 1: to cope with with economic uncertainty and as you said, UM, 773 00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:37,080 Speaker 1: kind of firm tilting the discussion so that you're on 774 00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,759 Speaker 1: the right side of the discussion, and you prefer you 775 00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,160 Speaker 1: don't want to take the risk of having even lower inflation, 776 00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,800 Speaker 1: given that you're at or close to the lower abound 777 00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,360 Speaker 1: in terms of your interest rates um and and given 778 00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,840 Speaker 1: the the harmful the harmful con sequencers of deflation for 779 00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,080 Speaker 1: the economy, So you want to be in terms of 780 00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,000 Speaker 1: risk management, right, you want to be on the right 781 00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,719 Speaker 1: side of that of that risk. And if you if 782 00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:02,200 Speaker 1: you're going to take a chance, that would be the 783 00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,239 Speaker 1: chance of higher inflation, because then you know what to do. 784 00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:08,040 Speaker 1: That's how I understand what they're all saying, right, And 785 00:46:08,080 --> 00:46:10,920 Speaker 1: then you can put very fancy concepts on it, which 786 00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:13,799 Speaker 1: is which is fine. But as long as you as 787 00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,239 Speaker 1: the outcome is that you keep a lot of flexibility 788 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,520 Speaker 1: and you are on the side of caution in terms 789 00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:23,400 Speaker 1: of not allowing a deflation to happen, I think that's fine. 790 00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,480 Speaker 1: And I don't think the exact framework matters matters too much, 791 00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:31,239 Speaker 1: all right, Well, Ben, what I really enjoyed that conversation, 792 00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:35,600 Speaker 1: and I feel like I actually have a, let's say, 793 00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:40,000 Speaker 1: the start of a good understanding of central bank digital currencies. 794 00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,600 Speaker 1: You did a really good job of framing the discussion. 795 00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,719 Speaker 1: So thank you so much. Okay, very good. So I 796 00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,880 Speaker 1: hope now you know why we are why we're doing it, 797 00:46:50,040 --> 00:47:11,120 Speaker 1: definitely more than before. Thanks. That was great. Thank so. 798 00:47:11,400 --> 00:47:15,880 Speaker 1: I found that conversation very very interesting, And one thing 799 00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:19,719 Speaker 1: that I did appreciate was Ben was framing of a 800 00:47:19,719 --> 00:47:24,280 Speaker 1: lot of these issues or debates not as technological problems, 801 00:47:24,360 --> 00:47:29,120 Speaker 1: but as political problems or political issues that need to 802 00:47:29,120 --> 00:47:34,680 Speaker 1: be decided by governments. Yes, I think to me that 803 00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,839 Speaker 1: was like the big takeaway too. So there's obviously the 804 00:47:38,880 --> 00:47:43,960 Speaker 1: technological side that's interesting. There are some exciting things that 805 00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:49,400 Speaker 1: can theoretically follow from the technological innovations, whether it's advances 806 00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:54,440 Speaker 1: and payments, the ability for people to engage in finance 807 00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:58,080 Speaker 1: outside of just um sort of interface with commercial banks. 808 00:47:58,520 --> 00:48:01,239 Speaker 1: But it does feel like these are all sort of 809 00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,960 Speaker 1: the big questions are still have to be fought over politically, 810 00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:08,560 Speaker 1: how any country actually wants to set these up, and 811 00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:12,200 Speaker 1: the parameters of digital currency. Yeah, and I think that's 812 00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,840 Speaker 1: another thing that came through from the conversation, the idea 813 00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:19,560 Speaker 1: that not every cb d C is going to look 814 00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:23,520 Speaker 1: the same, and countries might have different things or different 815 00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,480 Speaker 1: problems that they're actually looking to solve when they issue 816 00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:29,520 Speaker 1: these and for instance, you brought up the discussion about privacy. 817 00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:33,200 Speaker 1: There might be certain countries in the world, you know, 818 00:48:33,280 --> 00:48:36,040 Speaker 1: I don't know, the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, places like that 819 00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:41,480 Speaker 1: where anonymity of central bank digital money could work and 820 00:48:41,640 --> 00:48:44,799 Speaker 1: could even be valued. Um, but that might not not 821 00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,919 Speaker 1: necessarily be the case in other parts of the world. Yeah, 822 00:48:47,960 --> 00:48:50,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I think this is the question of anonymity 823 00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,640 Speaker 1: is super important because look, that is a really important 824 00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:57,520 Speaker 1: aspect of cash, right, Like people like cash for that reason, 825 00:48:57,920 --> 00:49:00,040 Speaker 1: but cash is going away. It's being used less and 826 00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:03,319 Speaker 1: less because a you know, we have our phones and 827 00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:05,680 Speaker 1: there's all kinds of sort of digital money infrastructure out 828 00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,120 Speaker 1: in the wild, but also just on the internet, there 829 00:49:08,200 --> 00:49:10,880 Speaker 1: is no way to spend cash. And so the question 830 00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,879 Speaker 1: is if there's a if we if we transport sort 831 00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:18,960 Speaker 1: of the concept of cash to the internet and such 832 00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,839 Speaker 1: that I can pay you for something directly without us 833 00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:26,040 Speaker 1: having to use a commercial bank, do I get to 834 00:49:26,200 --> 00:49:30,279 Speaker 1: keep what is a pretty fundamental characteristic of cash, which 835 00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:34,160 Speaker 1: is that privacy? And if not, I think that's like 836 00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,879 Speaker 1: a potentially sort of a loss and a worrisome thing 837 00:49:38,040 --> 00:49:42,320 Speaker 1: for sort of civil liberties and rights. If that goes away. 838 00:49:42,920 --> 00:49:45,080 Speaker 1: You know, one thing that never ceases to amaze me, 839 00:49:45,120 --> 00:49:47,640 Speaker 1: and I was thinking about during that conversation is just 840 00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,880 Speaker 1: how many different types of money there actually are. And 841 00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:55,359 Speaker 1: people say money, but of course, yeah, you know, there's 842 00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:58,480 Speaker 1: so many variations. There's the sort of commercial back end 843 00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,399 Speaker 1: money that been always talking about a lot um, there's 844 00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:06,640 Speaker 1: obviously cash, and I don't know, like, I don't know 845 00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:08,719 Speaker 1: what I'm trying to say, but it's it's just remarkable. 846 00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,640 Speaker 1: You know. What I think is what I always think 847 00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:14,120 Speaker 1: about is interesting, is that like when people think of money, 848 00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,240 Speaker 1: like when they think of like a dollar or a euro, 849 00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,280 Speaker 1: I think the first thing that usually comes to mind 850 00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:23,360 Speaker 1: is the physical version. But I realized what I've like 851 00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:25,839 Speaker 1: sort of like come to appreciate over the years is 852 00:50:26,120 --> 00:50:29,200 Speaker 1: the physical version is like the weird freak show thing 853 00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:32,399 Speaker 1: that doesn't really fit into anything else, so we tend 854 00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:34,920 Speaker 1: to they're not the same. And you know, like the 855 00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:37,920 Speaker 1: physical money, the cash that we have like in our pocket, 856 00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:41,839 Speaker 1: that's like this like narrow slice of the money system. 857 00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:44,480 Speaker 1: It doesn't even really make sense. Most money is credit, 858 00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:47,799 Speaker 1: but it's not it's the direct liability of the central bank. 859 00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:49,560 Speaker 1: But that's also strange, because what does it mean to 860 00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,919 Speaker 1: be a liability all the other forms of money, whether 861 00:50:52,960 --> 00:50:54,960 Speaker 1: it's the money that I have in bank, whether it's 862 00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:57,360 Speaker 1: the money that I have in penmo, whether it's the 863 00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:01,040 Speaker 1: money that banks have held at the central bank at 864 00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:03,840 Speaker 1: the foot of reserve, that all sort of like fits 865 00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:07,680 Speaker 1: into like this sort of like nice sort of like 866 00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:10,759 Speaker 1: framework of like credit money that is essentially the core 867 00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:13,360 Speaker 1: of the system. And so the money that most people 868 00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,600 Speaker 1: think of is like the weird exception and not the 869 00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,920 Speaker 1: rule at all. Yeah, I think when you think about 870 00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,600 Speaker 1: it that way, the discussions around cd DC make a 871 00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:26,640 Speaker 1: lot more sense, like why central banks would be trying 872 00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:30,560 Speaker 1: to solve the problem basically of cash being such a 873 00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:34,000 Speaker 1: weird thing and serving such a unique role, a unique 874 00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:38,160 Speaker 1: all be a changing role in society, you know. The 875 00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,279 Speaker 1: The other thing is, like we talked about privacy. I mean, 876 00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,640 Speaker 1: there are some people who are like really see the 877 00:51:42,719 --> 00:51:47,480 Speaker 1: privacy aspects of cash to be a super negative. I mean, like, uh, 878 00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:50,759 Speaker 1: who is it that um can rogue off? I mean 879 00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:54,360 Speaker 1: he wrote a book basically about how awful cash is, 880 00:51:55,400 --> 00:51:59,960 Speaker 1: how it facilitates crime and tax evasion and corruption other 881 00:52:00,000 --> 00:52:03,440 Speaker 1: and stuff. So while there are some people who are like, okay, 882 00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:07,960 Speaker 1: online digital currencies may solve the problem of anonymous payments 883 00:52:08,000 --> 00:52:10,879 Speaker 1: on the internet in the world without cash. Other people 884 00:52:10,880 --> 00:52:13,520 Speaker 1: will say, like, this is really exciting because we can 885 00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,000 Speaker 1: get rid of cash and then there's no more anonymous 886 00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,560 Speaker 1: payments anymore than we can go against all these ills 887 00:52:18,640 --> 00:52:21,080 Speaker 1: like drug dealing and money laundering and stuff like that. 888 00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:23,640 Speaker 1: So some people see this as a huge opportunity to 889 00:52:23,880 --> 00:52:25,880 Speaker 1: fix what they see is one of the major flaws 890 00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:29,120 Speaker 1: of money right now. I mean. Other people argue also 891 00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,560 Speaker 1: that there are less harmful forms of digital cash already 892 00:52:32,600 --> 00:52:36,400 Speaker 1: in existence, such as gift cards issued by Visa and 893 00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:41,160 Speaker 1: MasterCard things like that. Um, okay. Well, clearly there's a 894 00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:44,000 Speaker 1: lot to unpack when it comes to the very nature 895 00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,000 Speaker 1: of money, and we will of course keep talking about 896 00:52:47,000 --> 00:52:49,560 Speaker 1: it on All Thoughts. It's a perennial favorite of ours. 897 00:52:49,640 --> 00:52:53,000 Speaker 1: But for now, should we leave it there? Let's save 898 00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,200 Speaker 1: it there. This has been another episode of the All 899 00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,080 Speaker 1: Thoughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on 900 00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,160 Speaker 1: Twitter at tre See All the Way, and I'm Joe 901 00:53:02,200 --> 00:53:05,200 Speaker 1: Wisn't Though. You can follow me at the Stalwart and 902 00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:09,280 Speaker 1: follow our guest Benay on Twitter he's at B Currey. 903 00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,080 Speaker 1: Follow our producer Laura Carlson. She's at Laura M. Carlton. 904 00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:16,239 Speaker 1: Follow the Bloomberg had of a podcast francesco Leavi at 905 00:53:16,239 --> 00:53:19,839 Speaker 1: Francesca Today, and check out all of our podcasts under 906 00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,400 Speaker 1: the handle at podcast Thanks for listening.