1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:05,960
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:04,280
Speaker 2: About that action.

3
00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:10,520
Speaker 3: All right, here we go from the test throwing in

4
00:00:10,720 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 3: so spect we're saying it's a cash touchdown.

5
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,079
Speaker 2: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

6
00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:19,360
Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to win.

7
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: That's incredible.

8
00:00:22,760 --> 00:00:24,919
Speaker 4: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

9
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,960
Speaker 1: All right, this is the ultimate combine.

10
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:35,760
Speaker 4: You want to and we are underway. Welcome to the

11
00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,640
Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

12
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:40,640
Speaker 2: I am your host, Evan Abrams.

13
00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,760
Speaker 4: And I'm joined, of course by the one, the Only,

14
00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,760
Speaker 4: the man himself, BA Brandon Anderson. For some best bets

15
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:50,080
Speaker 4: for NFL Week eighteen, last week of the regular season.

16
00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,360
Speaker 4: But hey, we got beautiful playoff football on the horizon.

17
00:00:53,360 --> 00:00:55,440
Speaker 4: We will get to those bets shortly. For first, I

18
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 4: just want to talk about some fun trends and talking

19
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:01,040
Speaker 4: points kind of entering week eighteen, And for me, it's

20
00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:02,320
Speaker 4: just about the playoff field.

21
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,760
Speaker 2: So if the Ravens do happen to lose.

22
00:01:04,520 --> 00:01:07,000
Speaker 4: On Sunday Night Football to the Steelers, eliminating them from

23
00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,800
Speaker 4: the playoffs, we would see a very rare playoff field

24
00:01:09,880 --> 00:01:12,440
Speaker 4: without some real heavy hitters. We would see two teams

25
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 4: who entered the season with eleven plus win totals, missed

26
00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,360
Speaker 4: the playoffs in the Ravens and Chiefs, the first time

27
00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,240
Speaker 4: we have seen that since two thousand with Washington and Jacksonville.

28
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,000
Speaker 4: So long it's been in that front. Obviously with an

29
00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 4: extra game, higher win totals, but nonetheless still crazy enough,

30
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:31,560
Speaker 4: and we would see a bunch of teams ten to one,

31
00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,919
Speaker 4: eight to one missing the playoffs. So with this expanded field,

32
00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:40,720
Speaker 4: pretty crazy nonetheless. And also of course we reached week eighteen,

33
00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 4: which means win totals. We have four win totals actually

34
00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,560
Speaker 4: in the balance heading and heading into Week eighteen with

35
00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:50,840
Speaker 4: the Eagles, the Cowboys, the Dolphins, and the Browns all

36
00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 4: needing wins to go over. So we will see how

37
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,560
Speaker 4: that comes into play. But Brandon, before we get into this,

38
00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:58,080
Speaker 4: what's your thoughts on Week eighteen.

39
00:01:58,320 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's interesting that you know, normally, with the expanded

40
00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,960
Speaker 5: field and the extra game, now you would think initially,

41
00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,320
Speaker 5: at least I would think, well, that may be, seems

42
00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 5: more volatility, more time for underdogs and make around. Well, really,

43
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:14,560
Speaker 5: what it's been historically and not this year, is more

44
00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,160
Speaker 5: chances for the good teams to be the better team.

45
00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,840
Speaker 5: And usually it's meant that the favorites are even better

46
00:02:20,880 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 5: at getting into the playoffs. That's just one extra game

47
00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:24,959
Speaker 5: for them to make up the ground for that one

48
00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:27,400
Speaker 5: game they blew back in Week seven or Week eleven.

49
00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:30,200
Speaker 5: You know, So this year really is an exception to that.

50
00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,079
Speaker 5: We really are just seeing a very topsy turvy year.

51
00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:35,920
Speaker 5: And yeah, I want to talk just about like Week

52
00:02:35,960 --> 00:02:38,960
Speaker 5: eighteen is such a unique animal in the NFL. We

53
00:02:39,040 --> 00:02:41,720
Speaker 5: kind of saw this already with Week seventeen, where a

54
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,679
Speaker 5: lot of the games didn't matter. And to me, I

55
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:46,680
Speaker 5: want to just chat a little bit about like, how

56
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,240
Speaker 5: do you approach Week eighteen?

57
00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:48,880
Speaker 1: What do you do?

58
00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,280
Speaker 5: How do you bet it? When look, you don't want

59
00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:53,320
Speaker 5: to just not bet. It's the last full slate of

60
00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:54,640
Speaker 5: the year, so you want to be able to have

61
00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,160
Speaker 5: some fun. But some of these games, man, they just

62
00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,080
Speaker 5: look this absolutely unplayable.

63
00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:00,960
Speaker 1: But look, we've we've bet.

64
00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,440
Speaker 5: Jets money lines this year, We've bet Panthers money lines.

65
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:07,880
Speaker 5: Like unplayable games can turn playable. So for me personally,

66
00:03:08,440 --> 00:03:12,560
Speaker 5: I'm looking more long shots underdogs in Week eighteen. There

67
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:15,680
Speaker 5: are going to be more teams at long odds that

68
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,120
Speaker 5: might just accidentally try or maybe the favorite ends up

69
00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,960
Speaker 5: resting or pulling guys halfway through the game. So I'm

70
00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:24,760
Speaker 5: looking at that, I'm looking at motivation. I'm looking a

71
00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 5: lot at correlation. If X team loses, what does that

72
00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:32,120
Speaker 5: mean for wise teams playoff chances? So we got a

73
00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,720
Speaker 5: couple of correlated angles. And I think too For me,

74
00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:38,520
Speaker 5: of course, I'm the futures guy. This is a great

75
00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:42,560
Speaker 5: chance to take a future swing before the game to say, Okay,

76
00:03:43,040 --> 00:03:45,600
Speaker 5: if I like this team, what does that mean for

77
00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,160
Speaker 5: them to win the game? How does that help their path?

78
00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,120
Speaker 5: And then is the path better? So I can skip

79
00:03:51,160 --> 00:03:54,400
Speaker 5: the money line now invest straight into the Super Bowl

80
00:03:54,480 --> 00:03:58,480
Speaker 5: OS or something like that. Incentives, I know you've got

81
00:03:58,520 --> 00:04:00,760
Speaker 5: to call them up on incentives. I'd like to hear

82
00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:03,240
Speaker 5: what you think about them. I personally don't do a

83
00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,760
Speaker 5: ton with incentives. I think that the cat's a bit

84
00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:07,839
Speaker 5: out of the bag. I think that's mostly baked into

85
00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,000
Speaker 5: a lot of those prop lines. For me, it's more like, okay, well,

86
00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,240
Speaker 5: if I know Jamar Chase wants to get a few

87
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,320
Speaker 5: of these lines that he's trying to hit a great well,

88
00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 5: I'm gonna assume he's gonna play all game then and

89
00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:20,680
Speaker 5: try hard. Maybe I can like the Bengals better, but

90
00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:23,320
Speaker 5: I'm not sure about the prop lines necessarily, And an

91
00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:27,640
Speaker 5: overall last note, probably just less aggressive on units like

92
00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 5: these maybe are half unit plays versus full unit plays.

93
00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,680
Speaker 5: Today it's the last full slate, so I'm gonna give

94
00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,880
Speaker 5: you all sorts of best bets. We'll do the three

95
00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:37,479
Speaker 5: kind of playoff games early and have some fun with

96
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,279
Speaker 5: some other stuff. But you know, don't go too crazy.

97
00:04:40,320 --> 00:04:42,640
Speaker 5: If you think you know something about Week eighteen, you

98
00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,440
Speaker 5: probably don't. So that's what I think about Week eighteen.

99
00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:47,880
Speaker 5: Where are you out on Week eighteen? On the slate,

100
00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:49,720
Speaker 5: on the player incentives, all that kind of stuff.

101
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, there is just a lot of nuance to week eighteen.

102
00:04:53,600 --> 00:04:55,600
Speaker 4: And I think it's also, like you said, bleeding into

103
00:04:55,640 --> 00:04:58,320
Speaker 4: week seventeen a little bit, which is extending the regular season,

104
00:04:58,320 --> 00:04:59,640
Speaker 4: but it already feels a little long.

105
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:00,160
Speaker 2: But I think I.

106
00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,400
Speaker 4: Think between practice reports and playing time and actually figuring

107
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:06,400
Speaker 4: out who's gonna be on the field so you can

108
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,039
Speaker 4: weigh snacks, which is basically opportunities this time of year,

109
00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:11,920
Speaker 4: Like if there's no a Chan and all of a

110
00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,080
Speaker 4: sudden you have Donovan Edwards and Ali Gordon and Juliet

111
00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:17,800
Speaker 4: like there's just a lot of options for who's going

112
00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:20,920
Speaker 4: to be on the field, which inherently tries to lean

113
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,159
Speaker 4: into how you should be betting props. So I think

114
00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:26,440
Speaker 4: that's one angle of this. I think the incentives is

115
00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:30,279
Speaker 4: way out of the bag. Like my opinion on a

116
00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,360
Speaker 4: gambling perspective would be to be very aware of them,

117
00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:38,400
Speaker 4: check out where those lines opened, where they've gone, and

118
00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:43,039
Speaker 4: then Saturday Sunday even potentially look at going the other

119
00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,120
Speaker 4: way if they've moved way too much. I think another

120
00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,440
Speaker 4: thing which is starting to be talked about a little

121
00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:52,360
Speaker 4: bit more but is probably more interested to players is

122
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:56,880
Speaker 4: these stat milestones, getting to one thousand yards, getting to

123
00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,360
Speaker 4: fifteen hundred, screaming, like these different things seem like things

124
00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:02,800
Speaker 4: that they are talking about more in the media. I

125
00:06:02,800 --> 00:06:05,480
Speaker 4: think it's good for publicity for them in contracts, it's

126
00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:08,040
Speaker 4: good for the agents. So I think incentives is one

127
00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:12,599
Speaker 4: thing which also teams, coaches, owners don't necessarily also want

128
00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:15,159
Speaker 4: to be giving these players sometimes. So I think these

129
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,560
Speaker 4: things work a lot of different ways, and it's a

130
00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,640
Speaker 4: little convoluted, especially now that the cat is so much

131
00:06:20,640 --> 00:06:23,880
Speaker 4: out of the bag and it's so publicly available as well.

132
00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,480
Speaker 4: I think the other thing before we move on here

133
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 4: is the data does say that the big underdog, the

134
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:35,440
Speaker 4: random big underdog does come through every once in a

135
00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:37,200
Speaker 4: blue moon. Here and I put this in my article,

136
00:06:37,200 --> 00:06:40,279
Speaker 4: but week seventeen and eighteen dogs have over a full touchdown.

137
00:06:40,320 --> 00:06:42,640
Speaker 4: So seven and a half or more are sixteen and

138
00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:44,920
Speaker 4: fifty three on the money line over the last decade.

139
00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,120
Speaker 4: You see all that sounds like crap. Well, I mean

140
00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 4: it is almost a ten percent return on investment. They've

141
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,800
Speaker 4: been profitable in three straight seasons and seven of the

142
00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:56,360
Speaker 4: last ten. Now this week we've got a lot. I mean,

143
00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:57,920
Speaker 4: I believe if I look at it right now, there

144
00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,080
Speaker 4: are seven teams currently it's seven and a half or more.

145
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,000
Speaker 4: So we kind of have to see what line movement

146
00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:05,120
Speaker 4: looks over the next twenty four to forty eight hours.

147
00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,440
Speaker 4: But blindly betting dogs has come to the window, which

148
00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,840
Speaker 4: goes a little bit into what you said. And then finally,

149
00:07:10,880 --> 00:07:13,320
Speaker 4: I think you're really smart about this. It's looking ahead

150
00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,120
Speaker 4: to the next step. It's okay, I think I like

151
00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,000
Speaker 4: Tampa Bay this week, but also I have them flaming out,

152
00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 4: so let's look at elimination stage or let's there's just

153
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:24,560
Speaker 4: a lot of ways to kind of attack this. So

154
00:07:24,840 --> 00:07:27,320
Speaker 4: this is probably my favorite week of the year because

155
00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,680
Speaker 4: I love digging into data having different angles, and this

156
00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:33,720
Speaker 4: might be the biggest data angle week of the year.

157
00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:36,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I agree, And well we'll get to some of

158
00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,560
Speaker 5: those futures angles. So format for today, We're gonna kind

159
00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:41,520
Speaker 5: of start out a little bit like what our format

160
00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,400
Speaker 5: will be I think during the playoffs, which is just

161
00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:46,480
Speaker 5: go through the playoffs slate in order, game by game,

162
00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:48,440
Speaker 5: kind of like when we do our Monday night preview

163
00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,000
Speaker 5: of just like, okay, here's the matchup, here's the line

164
00:07:51,000 --> 00:07:52,520
Speaker 5: of the total, what do we think about the matchup?

165
00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:54,560
Speaker 5: And then what are the bets? So we basically have

166
00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:57,720
Speaker 5: three effective playoff games this weekend. We've got two for

167
00:07:57,760 --> 00:07:59,840
Speaker 5: the division, We've got the game for the one. See

168
00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:02,400
Speaker 5: it's so that's the main course today. We'll go through those.

169
00:08:02,440 --> 00:08:04,640
Speaker 5: But I'll just tell you up front, I'm not really

170
00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:07,160
Speaker 5: picking a side in those games. I know that that's

171
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:09,280
Speaker 5: the sexy thing to do, is come out firing with

172
00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:11,960
Speaker 5: one of those teams. But to me, it's what you

173
00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 5: just said, it's playing futures angles. It's if I like

174
00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 5: the side, then the what if you give them out

175
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 5: a cookie. What happens after that, So that's more than

176
00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,040
Speaker 5: angles we'll get to and I'll have you know, props

177
00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,280
Speaker 5: and some of the things within those games. And then

178
00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,680
Speaker 5: once we get past those main three, what kind of

179
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 5: lightning round through some of the other games on the slate.

180
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:34,120
Speaker 5: Look the main three games, those are all the Island games.

181
00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,920
Speaker 5: This weekend, we still have a whole NFL Red Zone

182
00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,079
Speaker 5: on Sunday with seven hours, so don't worry, we'll have

183
00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:41,280
Speaker 5: a few bets for that as well, and even a

184
00:08:41,320 --> 00:08:43,679
Speaker 5: look ahead this week. Still thought we wouldn't have one

185
00:08:43,720 --> 00:08:46,120
Speaker 5: because there's no look ahead yet, but there is. Some

186
00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:50,400
Speaker 5: books are posting potential look ahead lines for playoff matchups,

187
00:08:50,400 --> 00:08:51,480
Speaker 5: so we'll get to that as well.

188
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm the one that with a few other people

189
00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,400
Speaker 4: who update the quarterbacks on action Labs, and I've been

190
00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,920
Speaker 4: going back and forth between this guys starting and TBD.

191
00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,080
Speaker 4: It's been a while the week, and I think it's

192
00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,200
Speaker 4: just going to continue over the next twenty four hours

193
00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:04,679
Speaker 4: or so. But if you'd like to tell some of

194
00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,959
Speaker 4: the bets we're about to discuss, find the quick slip

195
00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 4: link in the podcast and video description, or visit actionwork

196
00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,840
Speaker 4: dot com. Slash Bet now, or even better, sign up

197
00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:15,520
Speaker 4: for Action Pro. Action Pro users get real time alerts

198
00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:19,120
Speaker 4: as soon as experts like Stucky, Brandon Anderson Chris rabund

199
00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:21,560
Speaker 4: All track their picks in the Action app. You'll also

200
00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:24,960
Speaker 4: get real time money percentages to see where the smart

201
00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,200
Speaker 4: money is flowing. Access to our NFL player prop projection

202
00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,760
Speaker 4: powered by the one and only Sean Kerner. Just go

203
00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:33,280
Speaker 4: to Action hour dot com slash Pro to get started.

204
00:09:33,360 --> 00:09:36,440
Speaker 4: Use a promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off

205
00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:40,080
Speaker 4: an annual subscription. That's Promo Code Pod twenty po d

206
00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:44,600
Speaker 4: twenty twenty dollars off holiday special Action hour dot Com

207
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 4: slash Pro.

208
00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:46,560
Speaker 2: Jump in now.

209
00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 4: All right, it's time to get to those Week eighteen

210
00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:59,320
Speaker 4: best bets, this future best we talked about Week eighteen.

211
00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,440
Speaker 4: We talked about all the different things that come with

212
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:03,680
Speaker 4: this week. So let's start with the main course here.

213
00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,000
Speaker 4: Carolina Tampa Bay kick us off. It feels like a

214
00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:09,800
Speaker 4: Saturday playoff game, just giving us, you know, a little

215
00:10:09,800 --> 00:10:12,599
Speaker 4: bit of crapola. I've seen everybody saying, you know, we

216
00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:14,760
Speaker 4: should have just played this at nine am on Wednesday

217
00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,160
Speaker 4: and got it over with. But no, it's four point

218
00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:20,240
Speaker 4: thirty on Saturday. So what are you doing with Carolina, Tampa.

219
00:10:20,760 --> 00:10:23,720
Speaker 5: What's funny is, in classic NFC South style, it's not

220
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:27,800
Speaker 5: even a real playoff game anymore, because now if Carolina

221
00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,960
Speaker 5: loses the game, they might still backdoor into the playoffs

222
00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:34,520
Speaker 5: if Atlanta beats New Orleans on Sunday. So you know,

223
00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:36,880
Speaker 5: I'm sure NFL execs are kind of hoping for that

224
00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:38,760
Speaker 5: outcome just because we have to tune in more to

225
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:42,319
Speaker 5: another game on Sunday, a full playoff game, I suppose.

226
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,800
Speaker 5: I do wonder could that allow Carolina to perhaps play

227
00:10:45,840 --> 00:10:48,839
Speaker 5: slightly more aggressively here, knowing that they do have a

228
00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 5: little bit of a margin for error if they lose,

229
00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:53,120
Speaker 5: maybe they go for a couple extra fourth downs or

230
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,960
Speaker 5: something like that. We've seen that come through for Carolina

231
00:10:56,040 --> 00:10:59,920
Speaker 5: this year. So Tampa Bay nine of eleven against Carolina,

232
00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:03,880
Speaker 5: but last five wins by single digits. Probably this is

233
00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,000
Speaker 5: going to be a playoff sort of feel a low

234
00:11:06,080 --> 00:11:09,640
Speaker 5: scoring close game. These teams stink. Tampa Bay has won

235
00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,440
Speaker 5: one of their last seven games. Carolina. You had this

236
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,800
Speaker 5: in your column. Minus sixty seven point differential would be

237
00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:17,439
Speaker 5: the worst ever by any playoff team.

238
00:11:17,480 --> 00:11:20,959
Speaker 1: And by the way, the record was the ninety nine Dolphins.

239
00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 5: That team made the playoffs and lost in the playoffs

240
00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,240
Speaker 5: in Dan Marino's last game ever, sixty two to seven.

241
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 5: So something to look forward to. If Carolina does get

242
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,280
Speaker 5: into the playoffs. Here Trends would go under. It's a

243
00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,480
Speaker 5: windy game. Looks like our winniest game of the weekend.

244
00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 5: We know about windy unders. There's some division under Trends.

245
00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:42,120
Speaker 5: I can't get to the under. These defenses are terrible,

246
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,240
Speaker 5: both bottom five defenses the last six weeks. It feels playoffyest.

247
00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:48,760
Speaker 5: So that makes me think under. I just don't trust

248
00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,719
Speaker 5: the defenses. Carolina wants to run the football. Tampa Bay

249
00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:55,520
Speaker 5: is good stopping the run but invites you to pass

250
00:11:55,600 --> 00:11:58,960
Speaker 5: the ball. So to me, if you want Carolina, you

251
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,600
Speaker 5: want Bryce Young, and I don't want Bryce Young in

252
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:03,800
Speaker 5: my life or in this game. I can't totally get

253
00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:07,920
Speaker 5: there to trust Bryce. But with Tampa, Tristan Wurfs has

254
00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:11,440
Speaker 5: the turf toe injury. Top cornerback Jamel Dean is injured.

255
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:13,760
Speaker 5: That team might just be cooked, like they might have

256
00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,959
Speaker 5: just quit eight weeks ago already, And we just haven't

257
00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:19,240
Speaker 5: really been able to write the final funeral for them

258
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:22,720
Speaker 5: yet because the division is so bad. So I can't

259
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,120
Speaker 5: even say go back and forth. It's like would you rather?

260
00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:28,320
Speaker 5: And I don't want either one of the options here

261
00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:28,840
Speaker 5: on the game.

262
00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:31,160
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna just go back to what we played

263
00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:31,840
Speaker 1: two weeks ago.

264
00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,720
Speaker 5: I'm gonna play a prop. Give me a Mike Evans,

265
00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:38,640
Speaker 5: give me a touchdown. It's plus one seventy to Mike Evans.

266
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,200
Speaker 5: This is what he does. He just hit this against

267
00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:44,000
Speaker 5: Carolina two weeks ago and we played it. Panthers third

268
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,960
Speaker 5: to worse dv away against wide receiver one now nine

269
00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:49,800
Speaker 5: touchdowns to the top touchdown threat receiver in the last

270
00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:53,839
Speaker 5: twelve games. So Evans his last eleven versus Carolina A

271
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,600
Speaker 5: were just seven catches one hundred yards on eleven targets,

272
00:12:56,920 --> 00:12:59,760
Speaker 5: twelve touchdowns in those eleven games, at least one in

273
00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:02,960
Speaker 5: a seventy three percent of them, and multiple in three

274
00:13:03,000 --> 00:13:05,960
Speaker 5: of those games. So give me an Evans touchdown plus

275
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,880
Speaker 5: one seventy obligatory two at thirteen to one for Mike Evans,

276
00:13:11,240 --> 00:13:13,360
Speaker 5: and I'll give you a futures angle here as well.

277
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,400
Speaker 5: But thoughts on that game or pick overall?

278
00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, if I was forced to pick a side.

279
00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:20,440
Speaker 4: I'd probably lean on Tampa. I was looking at the

280
00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,560
Speaker 4: under two and a half. You know, you could also

281
00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,320
Speaker 4: mix the money line with like Denver money line. You

282
00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:27,960
Speaker 4: get it down to like minus one ten. Certain things

283
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 4: like that I think could be intriguing. I think the

284
00:13:30,880 --> 00:13:33,719
Speaker 4: total would be an underside, but people are starting to

285
00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:36,079
Speaker 4: get a little bit of the win there as it's

286
00:13:36,120 --> 00:13:38,040
Speaker 4: gone down a full point now down to forty three

287
00:13:38,120 --> 00:13:40,280
Speaker 4: and a half, So by the time we hit game time,

288
00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:42,920
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be shocked to see forty three's in the market.

289
00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,320
Speaker 4: I think the Evans look is right. I'm only just

290
00:13:46,440 --> 00:13:51,200
Speaker 4: scared of they've got like four or five different targets now,

291
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,320
Speaker 4: like Abuka is almost a fourth or fifth option at

292
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:58,679
Speaker 4: this point. McMillan's stepping up like Baker doesn't have a

293
00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 4: favorite except for Evans, where it just looks like he

294
00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,760
Speaker 4: gives him first reads. It looks like he tries to

295
00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:07,160
Speaker 4: force it there a little bit sometimes, so I see

296
00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,839
Speaker 4: where the play is coming from.

297
00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:11,680
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that that sounds about right, and I

298
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:13,880
Speaker 5: would be with you. I would lean bucks here if

299
00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:17,120
Speaker 5: I had to play aside. I think it's probably wrong

300
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 5: to trust this, but I still trust Baker right now,

301
00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:23,520
Speaker 5: given the two options, I still trust the veteran playoff experience.

302
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:27,240
Speaker 5: Like we'll talk with this with wildcard round in round one.

303
00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:29,880
Speaker 5: When the playoffs start, you want the veteran experienced team.

304
00:14:29,920 --> 00:14:31,720
Speaker 5: You don't want the team new on the scene. So

305
00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 5: if this is a playoff type game, you want the

306
00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,760
Speaker 5: experience here. But it's a minus three. If it's under

307
00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:39,880
Speaker 5: the three, maybe I would have got there. I know

308
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,280
Speaker 5: it was for a lot of the week. I can't

309
00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:46,680
Speaker 5: play with the line at three, and so now we

310
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,160
Speaker 5: do the if you give him ouse a cookie, so

311
00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,200
Speaker 5: play it out. So I kind of like Tampa here,

312
00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,680
Speaker 5: I like the Saints in Atlanta. We're gonna get to

313
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,040
Speaker 5: that one in a little bet. So if Tampa does

314
00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 5: win and the Saints win, now the Bucks are in

315
00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,480
Speaker 5: the playoffs. Okay, Now what the Bucks are in the

316
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,080
Speaker 5: playoffs as the four seed a home game, but they're

317
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,880
Speaker 5: playing Seattle or the Rams and only they get demolished

318
00:15:07,880 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 5: in that game. They are the way worse team that matchup.

319
00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 5: It's the most lopsided matchup in the playoffs. So here's

320
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:17,520
Speaker 5: the angle on the game. As a future Bucks to

321
00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:20,800
Speaker 5: lose in the wild card round at DraftKings. That's under

322
00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:25,320
Speaker 5: stage elimination plus five hundred. It's five to one odds.

323
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:29,040
Speaker 5: That's seventeen percent. My numbers would make that about twenty

324
00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,440
Speaker 5: two percent. It's effectively it's a three game parlay. It's

325
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,720
Speaker 5: Bucks to win this game. It's Atlanta to lose to

326
00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:39,040
Speaker 5: the Saints on Sunday, so that Tampa gets in and

327
00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:42,960
Speaker 5: then you got a five to one on essentially Seattle

328
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 5: or the Rams money line against Tampa Bay once we

329
00:15:46,400 --> 00:15:46,880
Speaker 5: get there.

330
00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:47,920
Speaker 1: So that's the upside.

331
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,200
Speaker 5: You're gonna feel really good about that ticket once we

332
00:15:50,280 --> 00:15:52,800
Speaker 5: get there. You just got to escape out of the weekend.

333
00:15:53,160 --> 00:15:55,640
Speaker 5: So that's my last angle here. Bucks to lose in

334
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,600
Speaker 5: the wild card round five to one at DraftKings.

335
00:15:58,920 --> 00:16:00,560
Speaker 2: And you had mentioned the mic out and stuff.

336
00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:02,520
Speaker 4: I also looked at a few things at him at home,

337
00:16:02,600 --> 00:16:05,320
Speaker 4: which has been really good since twenty nineteen. Six plus

338
00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:08,760
Speaker 4: receptions against Carolina in six straight home games, touchdown in

339
00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:11,560
Speaker 4: five straight, eighty nine plus receiving yards in six straight

340
00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,320
Speaker 4: so at home he's actually looked better. And then listen,

341
00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:18,040
Speaker 4: I'm never going to talk you out of Todd Bowles exiting.

342
00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:18,560
Speaker 2: The playoffs early.

343
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,640
Speaker 4: I mean, he's one in three straight up in ats

344
00:16:20,640 --> 00:16:23,520
Speaker 4: in the playoffs, it's never a bad idea, it's just

345
00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,280
Speaker 4: how you get there. And I honestly see Atlanta potentially

346
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,600
Speaker 4: showing up and winning that game, which just causes more

347
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,080
Speaker 4: absurdity in this one. But we'll talk about that again

348
00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,640
Speaker 4: in a minute. So that's Are we ready for Seattle

349
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,560
Speaker 4: San fran Yeah, let's do it all right? So what's

350
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:42,960
Speaker 4: your thought process here? I mean this to me for

351
00:16:43,040 --> 00:16:45,520
Speaker 4: the one seed versus like the five seed, So this

352
00:16:45,560 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 4: one has a lot on the line, like it did

353
00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 4: last year for Donald in that Minnesota Detroit game, but

354
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:53,480
Speaker 4: with San Francisco's defense, I do feel like this is

355
00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 4: a different matchup for him, a more positive matchup. So

356
00:16:57,160 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 4: if he would to play bad in this game, I

357
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,960
Speaker 4: would probably put that as way more of a red flag.

358
00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,240
Speaker 2: But how do you handicap this one?

359
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 1: Yeah?

360
00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 5: So look, we just talked about a playoff game. We're

361
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,640
Speaker 5: gonna get to the playoff game to end a week

362
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:14,320
Speaker 5: eighteen Baltimore Pittsburgh. To me, this game is way more important.

363
00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,199
Speaker 5: This is the most important game of the regular season.

364
00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 5: It's all cute who gets in the other divisions, but

365
00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 5: they're just gonna lose pretty quick. Anyways, this game swings everything.

366
00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 5: I have the winner of this game thirty percent ish

367
00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:28,879
Speaker 5: to win the NFCED to go to the Super Bowl.

368
00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,000
Speaker 5: Loser it drops down to fifteen percent. So this is

369
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:34,680
Speaker 5: a double Yurod's outcome to make.

370
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,360
Speaker 1: The Super Bowl. This effectively is like.

371
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,800
Speaker 5: A conference championship level importance of game. For Seattle, they

372
00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 5: cannot drop below the five seeds, so they're a little

373
00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,919
Speaker 5: bit more insulator. Remember five seed plays the teams we

374
00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 5: just talked about. That's not so terrible. That's as close

375
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,479
Speaker 5: as you get to a first round by the Niners

376
00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:54,040
Speaker 5: can still drop to the sixth seed depending on the

377
00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,879
Speaker 5: Rams game. If the Rams lose two, san Fran is

378
00:17:56,880 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 5: the five with the lost, but obviously you want the

379
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,320
Speaker 5: one seed. San Fran has won some of the last

380
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,480
Speaker 5: eight matchups against Seattle, but Seattle won fifteen of seventeen

381
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,480
Speaker 5: before that, so look at the matchup. My first thought

382
00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,000
Speaker 5: was Seattle minus one and a half on the road.

383
00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:16,439
Speaker 5: Oh boy, that feels a bit surprising as hot as

384
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,320
Speaker 5: san Fran's offense has been for Seattle be a road favorite,

385
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 5: but that's pretty much my number. I have it Seattle

386
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 5: minus one point eight, so I don't really see a

387
00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 5: big edge there looking at offense defense, Seattle defense, San

388
00:18:29,080 --> 00:18:32,239
Speaker 5: Fran offense. Man, you can't get a better matchup than that.

389
00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 5: We got Seattle defense rams offense a couple times already,

390
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 5: and we've enjoyed that matchup all the way. I think

391
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 5: this one is just as good, maybe better. Seale's defense

392
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,000
Speaker 5: has been better on the road this year, and this

393
00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,000
Speaker 5: is why they went out and got Mike McDonald specifically

394
00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 5: for Shanahan and McVeigh offenses. These are the things Seattle's

395
00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 5: defense does best. What does Shanahan offense do? They go motion,

396
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 5: they go under center, they do play action, all those

397
00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 5: gadgety types that make his offense so good. Well, what's

398
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:06,080
Speaker 5: Seattle good at top seven by EPA per play against motion,

399
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:09,560
Speaker 5: play action, under center. These are the things they're taking

400
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:13,200
Speaker 5: away from you, and by DVA, Seattle is the number

401
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:16,719
Speaker 5: one defense defending the middle of the field. That is

402
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:20,399
Speaker 5: Shanahan football. You attack the middle of the field, and

403
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,480
Speaker 5: that is what Seattle's done. Good job taking away. Seattle

404
00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,440
Speaker 5: is great at pressuring the quarterback. Okay, that was less

405
00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,200
Speaker 5: of a deal against Mac Jones. He can't move as much,

406
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:32,919
Speaker 5: but Brock Purdy can create we saw him have some

407
00:19:33,000 --> 00:19:36,240
Speaker 5: big plays in the last couple of weeks, creating extending

408
00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,440
Speaker 5: the play. How much does that matter? And the big

409
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 5: injury to watch here to me huge Trent Williams. We

410
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 5: saw him get hurt on the first play, first hamstring injury.

411
00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 1: Of his career.

412
00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 5: Supposedly, if he's out, that is, and I don't say

413
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,360
Speaker 5: this lightly, as big of a loss to any non

414
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,840
Speaker 5: quarterback on any team, on any player in the league.

415
00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 5: I have that a full point to the spread, and

416
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,159
Speaker 5: that's probably under what it should be. Huge splits for

417
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 5: San Fran on and off with Trent Williams, so that

418
00:20:04,880 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 5: matters for the pass and the run game. Seattle plays

419
00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 5: the second most light box defense in the league and

420
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 5: their number one EPA per play. When they do that,

421
00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 5: they want to have their defensive backs on the field

422
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 5: and dare you to.

423
00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: Beat them that way.

424
00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:21,119
Speaker 5: Most years San Fran would kill you doing that. Most

425
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 5: years they would have run the ball all over you.

426
00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 5: But they have been bottom three EPA per play against

427
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 5: light box this season. They have not punished that well,

428
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:31,520
Speaker 5: but are running a little better lately. So on the

429
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,680
Speaker 5: flip side, the only team that plays more light box

430
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 5: defense is the niners. So we're gonna get a lot

431
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,640
Speaker 5: of I dare you to beat me in your run game.

432
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,199
Speaker 5: You're not beating me by passing. I dare you to

433
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 5: run the ball and beat me with twelve fourteen play drives.

434
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,199
Speaker 5: And Seattle has not been good at that either. The

435
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:52,359
Speaker 5: early Rams game Seattle played, I think it was like

436
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 5: week eleven or week ten, somewhere in there, the Rams said,

437
00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,040
Speaker 5: we're not going to match your personnel, Seattle.

438
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 1: We're gonnacies. Now here's what that means.

439
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 5: Seattle Clint Kubiak offense had all been about, we're gonna

440
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:08,720
Speaker 5: look like we're running the ball and we're gonna pass

441
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 5: out of heavy. We're gonna put tight ends and extra

442
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,520
Speaker 5: bodies on the field, and all we need is jaysn

443
00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 5: go deep.

444
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 1: Jasn.

445
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 5: Donald will find you because you're running against all these

446
00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 5: bigger dudes stacked into the box to stop the run,

447
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,280
Speaker 5: but we're not running anyway. And the Rams said, all right,

448
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:26,720
Speaker 5: bet we know you're not running. We're gonna defend all

449
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,360
Speaker 5: your big boys as though you're passing anyway, because that's

450
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 5: what your tendencies tell us. And since that happened, everyone

451
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 5: else is copying that and Seattle's offense has gone from

452
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 5: like top three to five to very league average or

453
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 5: worse in a lot of metrics. So can they run

454
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:45,120
Speaker 5: the ball against san Fran? Who's gonna say go ahead,

455
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,200
Speaker 5: you want to run the ball on us? We don't

456
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 5: think you can beat us that way. And I think

457
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 5: that's what we're gonna get both teams both ways in

458
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 5: this game is kind of a big game of chicken.

459
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 5: Can you run the ball and beat us? Because we

460
00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 5: don't really want you passing on us. Can Donald the secondary?

461
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,159
Speaker 5: I think he can. There's not a lot of pressure

462
00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 5: from san Fran. If he gets some time, he can

463
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 5: hit throws down the field. So to me, I get

464
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,560
Speaker 5: stuck a little bit on a side, and I'll give

465
00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 5: your prop in a second. I'm curious what you think

466
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,600
Speaker 5: about I don't know. I don't know if I trust

467
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,920
Speaker 5: Darnald or Purty in the matchup. I think I trust

468
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 5: them enough, But to me, I don't really trust the

469
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,119
Speaker 5: run games. And I think this comes down to who

470
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,679
Speaker 5: can actually run the ball better. And I don't know

471
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 5: if I have a good conclusion on that. What do

472
00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 5: you think about all that?

473
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 4: I think it's confusing because Seattle is much much more

474
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,120
Speaker 4: the well rounded team. I think the biggest achilles heel

475
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 4: in the game is between the Trent Williams injury and

476
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:45,200
Speaker 4: San Francisco's defense. If either of those things become even

477
00:22:45,240 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 4: close to a positive, I think San Francisco has a

478
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,920
Speaker 4: decent edge. Also being at home in this one. I

479
00:22:50,960 --> 00:22:52,760
Speaker 4: don't know, it's a tough one. I mean, the line

480
00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,320
Speaker 4: is kind of right and telling you the story here.

481
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 4: I mean San Francisco opened very very early in that

482
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 4: minus two range and they've seen literally no line movement

483
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 4: in their direction since. And I see this even getting

484
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 4: closer to two from Seattle's standpoint. But if I had

485
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,640
Speaker 4: to pick a quarterback in the game, I would probably

486
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 4: take Purty. It just feels like his efficiency, his cool

487
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 4: and calmness, Like there is going to be a point

488
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 4: in this game where Sam Darnold is going to need

489
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 4: to make a play, and I think I would rather

490
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:27,280
Speaker 4: see Brock Purty in that situation than Sam. So I

491
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 4: think I'm going to wait and see and potentially lock in.

492
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 2: Some San Francisco stuff.

493
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,359
Speaker 4: But it's hard because Seattle is a much much more

494
00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 4: complete team all around, like they have Maybe I mean,

495
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 4: Kittle's gonna play he's banged up, but Barner is great

496
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 4: and is barely even used in this offense. So I mean,

497
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 4: I think what Seattle has, especially with the experience of

498
00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 4: Cooper Cup too, like he's barely used in some of

499
00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 4: these situations. So I think this is truly a bit

500
00:23:57,560 --> 00:23:59,959
Speaker 4: of a pick hum game with Seattle getting you know,

501
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,200
Speaker 4: a point point and a half based off of their

502
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:03,359
Speaker 4: history this season.

503
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so.

504
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 5: And it's really crazy to me Seattle's defense and don't

505
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 5: forget special teams. They have a historically good special teams.

506
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 5: Those two units are so strong that even with the

507
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:17,879
Speaker 5: offense falling down to league average, Seattle still is number

508
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,879
Speaker 5: one DVOA team second half of the season, even with

509
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:23,240
Speaker 5: a very average offense, And that is not how things

510
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 5: work usually.

511
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 1: You are going to be really, really.

512
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 5: Good on defense and special teams to be the best

513
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 5: team in the league despite that, And look, the parody

514
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:31,600
Speaker 5: is helping that as well.

515
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:33,119
Speaker 1: So I don't know.

516
00:24:33,200 --> 00:24:35,280
Speaker 5: On the side, I can't really talk myself into Darnald

517
00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:37,239
Speaker 5: on the Road. I'm a Vikings fan. I had this

518
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 5: exact game last year the one seed in Week eighteen.

519
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,359
Speaker 5: Darnold on the Road did not go well for me.

520
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,359
Speaker 5: But I don't really want to bet the Niners with

521
00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 5: no Trent Williams.

522
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:47,200
Speaker 1: I don't love that either.

523
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 5: I will say Niners defense clearly the weak link among

524
00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 5: the units in the game. Seattle's offense has been better early,

525
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 5: better on script. If it's Seattle, I think you'll know early.

526
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 5: I think Seattle will look the part and then maybe

527
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:04,399
Speaker 5: need to hold on defensively from there. If Seattle doesn't

528
00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 5: look the part early offensively, I will be very worried

529
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 5: for them pretty quickly. So that's kind of my take

530
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 5: on the game. I'm gonna play a prop here. I'm

531
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 5: the guy we all know is gonna do.

532
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: A lot of stuff.

533
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 5: It's Christian McCaffrey. I'm gonna play Christian McCaffrey. Receptions escalator.

534
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 5: Seattle allows the lowest fantasy points in the league to

535
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 5: running backs, but the most running back receptions. We've played

536
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:27,480
Speaker 5: this a couple times with them. They've allowed at least

537
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:31,080
Speaker 5: four receptions running back six straight games six or more,

538
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:32,200
Speaker 5: and four of those six.

539
00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 1: Eight or more twice. Earlier.

540
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 5: Before that stretch, they allowed seven, seven, seven, and eleven

541
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,840
Speaker 5: running back receptions. So on the season at least six catches.

542
00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 5: Half their games at least seven, almost half the games. McCaffrey.

543
00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 5: We know he's gonna run the ball, we know he's

544
00:25:46,280 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 5: gonna catch, he's gonna do everything in this game for them.

545
00:25:49,440 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 5: Six catches are more ten games out of sixty in

546
00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 5: this season, though admittedly not great lately, mostly early in

547
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 5: the season, and a lot more with mac Jones, But

548
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:00,880
Speaker 5: I think this is a good matchup for him.

549
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: Take the escalator.

550
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 5: Five and a half receptions are more is plus one

551
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 5: twenty five. I like that part best, and then just

552
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 5: kind of nibbling on the way up seven catches plus

553
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 5: two ten, and then just a bit on eight for

554
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 5: plus three ninety. And then here's the real escalator. I

555
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 5: think we hit this a few weeks ago. I still

556
00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 5: think McCaffrey is live for Offensive Player of the year.

557
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 5: This was Jonson Taylor all season. It's not anymore now.

558
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 5: Jsen's the favorite minus three hundred. But he's really fallen

559
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 5: off last five games under eighty yards a game, only

560
00:26:31,840 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 5: one hundred yard game. He was on a two thousand

561
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:36,920
Speaker 5: yard pace. This five games, he's down to about a

562
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 5: thirteen hundred and fifty yard pace, So that's about a

563
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,080
Speaker 5: third less on production on the season, and here he

564
00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 5: is head to head if the Niners win, and if

565
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 5: McCaffrey outplays JSN, here's a head to head spot to

566
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 5: take away the Offensive Player of the Year. And I

567
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,159
Speaker 5: think McCaffrey is a really strong bet for that plus

568
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 5: three eighty. I think those odds are badly misrepresenting the

569
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 5: chance he has in the biggest game of the season

570
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 5: to go be the guy in a good matchup. And

571
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,440
Speaker 5: if you like the futures angles, if you're on Seattle,

572
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 5: Mike McDonald plus seven to fifty Coach of the Year, Hey,

573
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 5: if Seattle wins and gets the one seed, maybe JSN

574
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 5: gets the award, But why not Mike McDonald, Like, for

575
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:18,960
Speaker 5: what he's done in Seattle, and as good as that

576
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 5: defense specifically has been, why wouldn't he be in the mix?

577
00:27:22,320 --> 00:27:24,719
Speaker 5: Seven to fifty feels too long for that, And then

578
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,320
Speaker 5: we continue to talk about Nicky manor a ten to

579
00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 5: one for defense Rookie of the Year just feels a

580
00:27:30,040 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 5: touch long, one big play, one interception, one swing play

581
00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 5: in a huge game and a race that's been very

582
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,920
Speaker 5: blaw and wide open. I feel like that could hit

583
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 5: as well. And then this last thing on futures to me,

584
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 5: if you want a side in this game. If you

585
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 5: like a side, you gotta go big because the side

586
00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 5: that wins is the one seed, and the one seed

587
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 5: is such a huge swing.

588
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 1: So to me, the only way.

589
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 5: To better side here is futures, and I think the

590
00:27:57,320 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 5: prices are way off for one of the teams. Your

591
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 5: chance is to make the Super Bowl literally double if

592
00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 5: you win this game. So if you're the Niners, if

593
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 5: you win this game, you not only get it by

594
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,159
Speaker 5: a week, then you might get to play the injured

595
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 5: Packers if they get the upset early, or you might

596
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,880
Speaker 5: even get to play NFC South team if that upset happens.

597
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 5: And don't forget super bowls in San Francisco this year.

598
00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 5: So if San Fran wins this game, they're two more

599
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 5: home games away from a home super Bowl. So we're

600
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 5: sitting before the season a Niners twenty to one, Seahawks

601
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 5: seventy to one.

602
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: So we're in good shape.

603
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 5: But whether you're there or not, I think the play

604
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,679
Speaker 5: here is Niners, NFC and Super Bowl tickets plus four

605
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 5: forty to win the NFC, plus nine point fifty to

606
00:28:41,200 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 5: win the Super Bowl. I think if San Fran wins

607
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 5: this game, which we're saying we kind of agree mostly

608
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 5: a coin flip slightly to Seattle. But if san Fran

609
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 5: wins a mostly coin flip game, they're the super Bowl favorite.

610
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 5: They are the super Bowl favorite. Not the best team

611
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 5: in the league, but the best path as a very

612
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 5: good team. I have them like a third to fifth

613
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,640
Speaker 5: best team. I would put them close to thirty percent

614
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 5: to win the NFC. We're playing nineteen percent here on

615
00:29:07,200 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 5: this ticket, and about fifteen percent to win the super Bowl.

616
00:29:10,200 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 5: And here's the thing, if they lose, I have them

617
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 5: dropping down pretty significantly, but to about twelve percent NFC

618
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,840
Speaker 5: six percent super Bowl. That's a big drop from what

619
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 5: we hope, but it's not that far off from the

620
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 5: price we're buying the ticket on right now. Six percent

621
00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 5: versus plus nine to fifty super Bowl is not a

622
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 5: huge risk that we're taking on here, and san Fran's

623
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:32,600
Speaker 5: offense has been good enough to still make up that ground.

624
00:29:32,720 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 5: So I think Seattle, you're basically paying for them winning

625
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 5: the game in advance. If you buy Seattle futures now,

626
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 5: I think you want san Fran futures NFC super Bowl.

627
00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 5: I got the Trey Lance Jersey on Trey starring this weekend,

628
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 5: so I got double use out of it. We're not

629
00:29:48,120 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 5: betting Trey Lance, don't worry. But I think Niners Futures

630
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 5: is the one team to invest in for big stuff

631
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 5: this week right now.

632
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: Yeah.

633
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,160
Speaker 4: I was gonna say more to come on Denver in

634
00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: the charges, but that's not true all right in this

635
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 4: match though, Christian McCaffrey, I'll take this one at a time.

636
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 2: I'll treat this like a playoff game.

637
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,320
Speaker 4: So if you do look at playoff games with San

638
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:10,480
Speaker 4: Francisco twenty nine receptions last five playoff games, about six

639
00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 4: per game. Then you look at the last game against

640
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 4: Seattle and you had mentioned this nine receptions on ten targets,

641
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,840
Speaker 4: So obviously that was something that, even with the quarterback

642
00:30:18,880 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 4: situation in that game, something they were looking to attack.

643
00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 4: In terms of the award market, Coach of the Year

644
00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 4: scares the living poop out of me. I want absolutely

645
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 4: nothing to do with that market unless you already have

646
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 4: invested in it, because I feel like this is a

647
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,520
Speaker 4: year where you'll bet four of them in the fifth

648
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 4: guy will win. I think it can go any number

649
00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 4: of five ways. I think it's going to be difficult

650
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 4: for it not to be either Vrabel or Shanahan. Even

651
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 4: if that, I think it's going to go to Vrabel.

652
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 4: I think they're going to beat Miami Drake. I think

653
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,479
Speaker 4: it's going to go to both of them. Like New

654
00:30:52,520 --> 00:30:55,000
Speaker 4: England was in a situation where they just shouldn't have

655
00:30:55,040 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 4: been here, like this is the Indiana story in college football,

656
00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: Like this is really an incredible that New England's in

657
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 4: this position. I think he's probably gonna win. I still

658
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 4: like the nick Emon Worry bet. I see it at

659
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 4: even twelve to one in the market. I think, listen,

660
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 4: I think Questionnger is gonna win the award. He's minus

661
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 4: fifteen hundred and most of these books.

662
00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:14,479
Speaker 2: But you're right.

663
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,240
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a primetime game where you know,

664
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 4: a fumble recovery, a pick six. Like, to me, if

665
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 4: you're gonna bet on even morey things in the game,

666
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 4: you might as well take the twelve to one because

667
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 4: it's an interesting look. Especially if Miles Garrett does something

668
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 4: in that Cincinnati Cleveland game, the story is gonna be him.

669
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 4: So maybe he catch lightning in a bottle there and

670
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 4: then I'll just say this, obviously, the San Francisco bet

671
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 4: is great if they win, right, I mean, that's you know,

672
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:43,200
Speaker 4: that's an easy thing to look at if they lose.

673
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 4: I mean, Shanahan is two to zero straight up ats

674
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 4: in the wildcard round. He's pretty decent advancing, So I mean,

675
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:51,800
Speaker 4: either way you look at it, I do feel like

676
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:56,720
Speaker 4: it's time to invest in San Francisco versus Seattle, especially

677
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 4: to the fact that road game everyone's kind of roll

678
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 4: in that direction. I think San Francisco's probably the better call.

679
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 4: If they win the game, They've got all the home

680
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 4: coming up, like, it just kind of makes sense to me.

681
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:08,480
Speaker 4: So that's the way I look at this matchup.

682
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, you do not want Donald on the road three

683
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 5: times to get to the super Bowl. Obviously, you want

684
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:16,880
Speaker 5: neither one of these guys on the road that much.

685
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 5: But I think you trust San Franz offense with Shanahan

686
00:32:19,640 --> 00:32:22,720
Speaker 5: a lot more than you trust Donald Road three games

687
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 5: to get there. To me on my Seattle super Bowl ticket,

688
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,400
Speaker 5: I feel like I'm close to drawing dead. Like it's

689
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 5: not really, but my gut is gonna tell me, Seattle.

690
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 5: If you want Seattle super Bowl, they got to win

691
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,760
Speaker 5: this game. San France still alive. If Seattle loses this game,

692
00:32:38,920 --> 00:32:41,000
Speaker 5: I think I'm done. Investing in Seattle this year. They

693
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:43,720
Speaker 5: need a huge market adjustment for me to get back

694
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 5: in on them, even though they're my number two team.

695
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 5: I just don't know if I get there on the

696
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:47,800
Speaker 5: trust again.

697
00:32:48,200 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep moving here.

698
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 4: This one has all sorts of implications that coaches could

699
00:32:53,440 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 4: be mutually gone. One quarterback could be making his final

700
00:32:57,080 --> 00:32:59,720
Speaker 4: start in the NFL. One quarterback could make his final

701
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 4: start Baltimore. It's gonna be great, Ravens Steelers for all

702
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 4: the marbles Sunday Night football? How do you read this one? Also,

703
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 4: just to remind people, he took the hot red under

704
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: forty three and a half. Now at forty one, you

705
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,560
Speaker 4: also did like Pittsburgh at the three and a half.

706
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 4: Still sitting there at three and a half with Lamar

707
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,600
Speaker 4: now probable in playing, seems like that society will take.

708
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: But what else are you looking at in this matchup?

709
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:26,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm really just kind of running back the hot

710
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,440
Speaker 5: red angle here, So a lot of what you've heard already,

711
00:33:29,600 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 5: just to rehash. Lamar looks ready to go, but don't

712
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,200
Speaker 5: forget so too with TJ Watt and I think that's

713
00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 5: the most important player for both teams. TJ Wa back

714
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 5: in the field, probably with Trent Williams, the other most

715
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 5: important player in big line swing for a team, even

716
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:47,440
Speaker 5: at the age for both those guys, Pittsburgh kind of

717
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:48,240
Speaker 5: exactly what we thought.

718
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: They were. Pretty good but not great.

719
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 5: Defense, very blah offense has gotten a lot worse of

720
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 5: the year went on the Ravens. I don't think people

721
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 5: have totally adjusted on what they're They're just a very

722
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 5: mid team last seven games defense and better than it

723
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 5: was early, but still pretty average mostly offense bottom ten

724
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 5: by DVAA bottom five passing. Just not a great football

725
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 5: team right now. And I know we saw them beat

726
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 5: up on the Packers. We saw them run all over them.

727
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 5: That was a specific matchup thing and that wasn't even

728
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 5: Lamar Jackson in that game. So to me, both defense

729
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 5: is a little bit better than they were early on.

730
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:23,160
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh's defense top five at home versus.

731
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 1: Bottom five on the road.

732
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:27,120
Speaker 5: That was the read on the hot read under forty

733
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 5: three and a half. I don't mind the forty one

734
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 5: last eleven matchups thirty four and a half points a game.

735
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 5: So this is definitely a mind shaft type look on

736
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,440
Speaker 5: the game. Hopefully you got it earlier, but I went

737
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 5: mine an Understill now, I'm not going to bet the

738
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 5: forty one because I've got the best of the line already.

739
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 5: But to me, Pittsburgh plus three and a half. If

740
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,919
Speaker 5: you like the defense, if you like them at home,

741
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 5: you should like them here. And it's really all about

742
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,800
Speaker 5: the trends. You can't really do all the matchup stuff

743
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 5: in this game because this is one of the best

744
00:34:56,160 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 5: trend spots of the year. Pittsburgh Baltimore last twelve games,

745
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 5: ten one score games out of the twelve. You play

746
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:05,920
Speaker 5: the history here, it's all as close, and you just

747
00:35:05,960 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 5: take the underdog. Here are some of the trends you've

748
00:35:08,520 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 5: heard over and over again, but they're worth hearing. Harbovers

749
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,919
Speaker 5: is Tomlin. The underdog is twenty five seven and three

750
00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,640
Speaker 5: against the spread seventy eight percent, including when the dog

751
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 5: is three points are higher twenty three and three eighty

752
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 5: seven percent ats nearly invincible. This is exactly a raw

753
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 5: ra Tomlin spot. We like them with its when they're underdogs,

754
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:35,959
Speaker 5: better at home, better in a division game, better after

755
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 5: a lost, better as a touchdown underdog or less. All

756
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 5: the check marks line up here. This is the spot

757
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 5: to bet a Tomlin team. And it doesn't have to

758
00:35:44,200 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 5: make sense. It's not supposed to make sense. It never

759
00:35:46,800 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 5: makes sense. And then here it's halftime, it's like, waw,

760
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 5: look at that crazy kick return and can you believe

761
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 5: that fumble bounced off the guy's helmet, hit the camera

762
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:57,800
Speaker 5: in the air and landed in somebody's arms were a touchdown?

763
00:35:57,880 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 5: Like this is what happens in these games. That never

764
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 5: makes sense. And some team agnostic trends AFC North Underdogs

765
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 5: week fourteen forward sixty percent just any division underdog in

766
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 5: that division, and Ravens seventeen point winners are better as underdogs.

767
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: Of seven or less since twenty ten.

768
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 5: That's Baltimore thirty six percent ats in the next game,

769
00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 5: this is a cell high in Baltimore spot.

770
00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: It's a give Pittsburgh and.

771
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:27,840
Speaker 5: Raw Rao Tomlin one more chance, and look, Tomlin loses

772
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 5: playoff game. So if this is a playoff game, this

773
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 5: bet could go very ugly, very quickly. He's lost six

774
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:37,720
Speaker 5: straight playoff games, the last four by eleven or more points,

775
00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 5: including one to Baltimore where this trend clearly didn't help,

776
00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 5: and the defense gave up thirty nine points a game.

777
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,560
Speaker 5: So we might get Baltimore Green Bay again. If this

778
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 5: goes badly, it's gonna go very badly. I don't blame

779
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 5: you if you're like no, I like Baltimore great, like

780
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 5: Baltimore by like twenty or thirty, like Baltimore doing all

781
00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,239
Speaker 5: the things. If you want to go a matchup, that's

782
00:36:56,280 --> 00:36:59,359
Speaker 5: the way you go. I'm gonna go trends Pittsburgh plus

783
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 5: three and a half. I can't blame you for taking

784
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 5: the money line.

785
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:05,799
Speaker 1: Feels goofy and late if it's If it's close like.

786
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 5: That, I'm just gonna stick with Pittsburgh three and a

787
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,319
Speaker 5: half and play the trends and then the future's angle here,

788
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 5: I'm surprise you a little bit rather than money line.

789
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:15,800
Speaker 1: Okay, what's the setup.

790
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 5: One team gets in they're the four seed, You get

791
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,840
Speaker 5: the home game, probably against Houston, who we know. I like,

792
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,879
Speaker 5: But my numbers say that's close to a coin flip game,

793
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 5: that Pittsburgh would be more of an underdog. I like

794
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:32,320
Speaker 5: Baltimore slightly better, but we're gonna have a lot of

795
00:37:32,400 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 5: trends that say you bet the home underdogs in the

796
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 5: wildcard round, especially Baltimore, they would be fifteen percent or

797
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:42,960
Speaker 5: less worse on the win rate than Houston seventy five

798
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 5: percent ats in that spot. So here's where I'm at.

799
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,040
Speaker 5: I don't think this is what happens, but I like

800
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:53,760
Speaker 5: the line. Whoever wins Baltimore Pittsburgh has a real chance

801
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 5: to upset Houston, presumably in the next round. It's probably

802
00:37:57,280 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 5: like a total of thirty seven, scoring ugly close.

803
00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 1: You get the lucky kick late and get.

804
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 5: Over the line. Give me Baltimore and Pittsburgh. I'll play

805
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 5: both of them to lose, not in the wild card round,

806
00:38:11,600 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 5: in the divisional round. Baltimore plus four to sixty, Pittsburgh

807
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 5: plus seven to fifty. We're getting both those teams together.

808
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 5: It's about thirty percent combined odds. Here's what that means.

809
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:25,439
Speaker 5: Whoever wins this game, I don't know. I don't really

810
00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 5: care who wins the game. I can't figure it out.

811
00:38:27,560 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 5: Hopefully Pittsburgh covers, but if they win in round one

812
00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:35,480
Speaker 5: of the playoffs. Now I have a plus four to

813
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,800
Speaker 5: sixty or plus seven to fifty money line on the

814
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 5: Patriots or Jaguars at home against them.

815
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: I love that for me.

816
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 5: I'm gonna love that ticket sitting on that against Baltimore

817
00:38:45,880 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 5: and Pittsburgh who I just don't think are very good.

818
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,960
Speaker 5: Can they hang in whoever wins this one and beat Houston.

819
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:54,600
Speaker 5: That's the look ahead angle there, That's the way I

820
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:55,399
Speaker 5: play this game.

821
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll take these a few at a time. So

822
00:38:57,960 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 4: in terms of the under, I found this kind of intrigue.

823
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 4: So since twenty twenty one, they've played eight games where

824
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 4: the total has decreased from opening to closing line, it's

825
00:39:06,280 --> 00:39:08,239
Speaker 4: still gone seven and one to the under on that

826
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 4: close which is obviously a lot lower than where it

827
00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:13,880
Speaker 4: had been middle of the week. So if that's the

828
00:39:14,000 --> 00:39:16,239
Speaker 4: type of game we get here, I think it's the

829
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,600
Speaker 4: right angle. Also, I put this a little bit in

830
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 4: my primer this week, but without DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh does

831
00:39:22,080 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 4: seem like a completely different offense. The A dot was low,

832
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 4: Rogers was struggling down the field like there was all

833
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 4: sorts of different things that was impacting what that offense

834
00:39:32,239 --> 00:39:34,759
Speaker 4: looked like. And I think that is a big thing.

835
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:37,320
Speaker 4: Even if they do get TJ. Watt, like, all the

836
00:39:37,480 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 4: different things on the other side of the ball, no

837
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 4: Dk Metcalf seemed to really impact them, especially to the

838
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 4: fact that Rogers is so damn stubborn. I mean going

839
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 4: to mvs like four or five times in those final droves, Like,

840
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 4: I have no idea what he is going to want

841
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 4: to do late in this game based on who he trusts.

842
00:39:57,880 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: That's who he throws the ball. Like if Allan Lazard

843
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 4: was out there, he'd gets seven targets in this game.

844
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 4: Like that's just who Aaron Rodgers is at this time

845
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 4: in his career. And I think that's a very difficult

846
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,439
Speaker 4: thing to try to handicap. So that's number one. Number

847
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 4: two the undergoing angle with Tomlin, Like it's completely understandable.

848
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:18,640
Speaker 4: He is seven and one straight up as an underdog

849
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 4: versus the Ravens since twenty twenty, Like pretty ridiculous to

850
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 4: be able to come forward and do that every single

851
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 4: time in that span. The other one, which I thought

852
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 4: was interesting is obviously as a home underdog he's performed well.

853
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,680
Speaker 4: But how about this one as a home dog where

854
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 4: Tomlin has a better record than his opponent. He's never

855
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 4: lost by more than three points and nine games, so

856
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:41,759
Speaker 4: he's got some two point losses, he's got a three

857
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 4: point loss, but he's either winning the game or it's

858
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 4: a short, tight loss. So yeah, the three and a

859
00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 4: half does sound absolutely fantastic. But if you're looking matchup wise,

860
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,920
Speaker 4: what I saw last week again to Cleveland really really,

861
00:40:56,520 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 4: really bad. And again you're also handicapping. Are they going

862
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 4: to give the ball to Derek Henry a ton?

863
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 2: Like?

864
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 4: It feels like the offense completely different with Lamar than

865
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,120
Speaker 4: it was with Huntley. With Hunley it was easy, like, Okay,

866
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 4: Derek Henry's gonna get the rock a ton. With Lamar,

867
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 4: they could try to get cute. And if they take

868
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 4: the ball out of Henry's hands and they rely on

869
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 4: a guy who's lost his burst, isn't playing well like

870
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:21,520
Speaker 4: this could be a disaster. I think the actual game

871
00:41:21,640 --> 00:41:24,920
Speaker 4: handicap here super difficult, and that's just the way I

872
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:28,480
Speaker 4: look at it. I do like the idea of Pittsburgh

873
00:41:28,640 --> 00:41:32,080
Speaker 4: if they win the game losing in the next round Baltimore.

874
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:34,319
Speaker 4: I just kind of tossed my hands in the air.

875
00:41:35,040 --> 00:41:37,160
Speaker 4: It would be interesting to see Pittsburgh win the game

876
00:41:37,200 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 4: and get DK back because I feel like two games

877
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 4: without him, even if this doesn't go well, it would

878
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 4: be a nice upgrade to an offense. It almost feels

879
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,880
Speaker 4: like adding a player later in the season, which is

880
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 4: always an intriguing angle to take Yeah.

881
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 5: And the one note too, New England or Jacksonville, who

882
00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 5: would be the presumed divisional round matchup, both really good

883
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 5: run defenses, so I do like the setup for that

884
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 5: against either one of these teams as well. So yeah,

885
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 5: it's interesting. We got three huge games and can't really

886
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:08,560
Speaker 5: make a pick on either one of them. Thank good

887
00:42:08,600 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 5: on NFL, we got some good games to watch that

888
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:12,560
Speaker 5: we don't really know what's gonna happen. Let's get to

889
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 5: some of the other goofy Sunday games now in the

890
00:42:14,480 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 5: Lightning Round instead.

891
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:20,320
Speaker 1: Lightning Round.

892
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 4: All right, it is Lightning Round time. We're we have

893
00:42:26,760 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 4: seven games here. We're gonna go through them very quickly,

894
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,360
Speaker 4: with an angle or two on each. We will start

895
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 4: with the battle for the AFC South title, or at

896
00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 4: least it should be Saints and Falcons. What are you

897
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:39,719
Speaker 4: doing in this one with a three and a half

898
00:42:39,760 --> 00:42:40,320
Speaker 4: point spread?

899
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you know how the ACC had a Duke

900
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 5: Virginia Conference championship, And then I was like, yeah, let's

901
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 5: just send Miami to the playoffs. Can we put the

902
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 5: Saints in the playoffs? I think the Saints are the

903
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 5: best team of the division. I think they have been

904
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 5: for like half the season already. I like the Saints here.

905
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 5: I don't know why they're such big underdogs. Give me

906
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 5: Saints plus three and a half Saints money line plus

907
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 5: one sixty. New Orleans has won five of seven in

908
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 5: that stretch. They're three to one against the division, their

909
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,359
Speaker 5: top twelve team in the last eight weeks. That's two

910
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 5: months worth by EPA and DVOA defense especially good number

911
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,479
Speaker 5: one success rate in that stretch, number two EPA per play.

912
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 5: Basically that's Seattle. That's what the Saints defense has been.

913
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 5: Look those factors are not counting strength to schedule, but

914
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,520
Speaker 5: Atlanta is not exactly a top strength to schedule here either.

915
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:28,720
Speaker 5: So I like the Saints here. Great all year against

916
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 5: the run, that sets up well against Atlanta, and this

917
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 5: game matters potentially if the Bucks beat the Panthers, we

918
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,080
Speaker 5: actually have to pay attention here. Kyler Schuck looks pretty

919
00:43:37,120 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 5: good plus one ninety five Rookie of the Year. That

920
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 5: to me is maybe a money line bet for the

921
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 5: Saints to end the year on like a six game

922
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 5: winning streak in a game we might actually have to

923
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:49,600
Speaker 5: pay attention to. I don't mind kind of substituting that

924
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 5: in either Atlanta to me as the highest ceiling we've

925
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 5: seen them hit that in a couple key moments, cry

926
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 5: for me on Monday night, that was one of them.

927
00:43:57,040 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 5: But I think the Saints are the better team. Gave

928
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:01,279
Speaker 5: me the Saints plus three and a half plus one

929
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 5: sixty money line.

930
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 4: Saints are the first team since nineteen ninety to have

931
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 4: a four plus game straight up win streak with a

932
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:10,960
Speaker 4: five plus game ATS win streak and still have a

933
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,080
Speaker 4: season win percentage below forty percent. I mean, they are

934
00:44:14,680 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: unlike anything we've seen in terms of how hot they've

935
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,640
Speaker 4: been later in the season. And it is Tyler Shuck.

936
00:44:20,680 --> 00:44:22,960
Speaker 4: I mean six and two against the spread and eight starts.

937
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,479
Speaker 4: But the issue has been early and we've talked about

938
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 4: the Saints all season long in the first quarter, but

939
00:44:27,960 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 4: it bleeds it to the first half. Shuck is two

940
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 4: and six first half ats and six and two second

941
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,480
Speaker 4: half ats, so they have been a better second half team.

942
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,319
Speaker 4: My biggest worry here, and I guess the toss back

943
00:44:38,360 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 4: to you would be a lave without him out there

944
00:44:41,360 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 4: this weekend, do you've I think that's also why you're

945
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,959
Speaker 4: getting the other half point. Is that something you're worried

946
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 4: about in the offense like you know it is it's Austin.

947
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 2: Is it tipped in?

948
00:44:50,800 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 4: Like they do have a you know, fewer targets out

949
00:44:53,640 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 4: there for him to work with.

950
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:57,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, I certainly I'd rather have a Lave playing here,

951
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 5: as the Saints just don't have a lot of weapons.

952
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:02,360
Speaker 5: Laughed and already were short. Anyways, I don't love it,

953
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 5: but you're right. I think that is probably why we're

954
00:45:04,239 --> 00:45:06,360
Speaker 5: getting the three and a half. I still think the

955
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 5: Saints are the better team. I'm betting the Saints more

956
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 5: on their defense overall, which I think can hang with Atlanta,

957
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 5: and I'm gonna trust Tyler Shock and Kellen Moore to

958
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 5: kind of find enough answers and get over the line.

959
00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 2: All right, let's keep rolling here.

960
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:19,879
Speaker 4: I will say that since his first starting week eight,

961
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:24,239
Speaker 4: Shuck is eighth in completion percentage over expected and fourteenth

962
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:28,440
Speaker 4: and averaged up to target. Both those things together extremely impressive.

963
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:29,279
Speaker 2: All right.

964
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 4: Lions Bears, obviously for Detroit eliminated, and a loss here

965
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,080
Speaker 4: would make them fourth in the standings, which is good

966
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 4: for the schedule next year. Chicago planned for the two

967
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 4: to three seed depending on different things. So we will

968
00:45:44,760 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 4: see golf, we will see Calebs. How you handicapping this one.

969
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, we kind of tease this on the Sunday Show.

970
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 5: I just really like the Lions here. I'll take the

971
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 5: plus three, I'll take the money line plus one P forty.

972
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 5: To me, it's not really number. This is about the

973
00:45:56,840 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 5: right number. But this is about matchup and motivation. Detrey

974
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,040
Speaker 5: fifty two on this defense all the way back in

975
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 5: Week two. Chicago's defense was a lot more banged up then,

976
00:46:05,120 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 5: but still pretty gettable as we've seen multiple times lately.

977
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 5: And I know the whole fourth place schedule thing. This

978
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,799
Speaker 5: is Dan Campbell. If anything, I think Dan Campbe would

979
00:46:13,840 --> 00:46:16,040
Speaker 5: want it harder, like he'd prefer the harder schedule to

980
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 5: go earn it the hard way. Next year, He's gonna

981
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 5: want this game against Ben Johnson, the guy that left

982
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,759
Speaker 5: them for the divisional job. He's gonna want the team

983
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 5: to get above five hundred. He does not want to

984
00:46:25,880 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 5: end the season on a four game losing streak. I

985
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 5: guarantee the Lions actually care about this game, wanted to

986
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 5: come out and playing, and.

987
00:46:32,280 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: The Bears might not really need to.

988
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:36,920
Speaker 5: It looks like the Eagles may be resting key guys.

989
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,480
Speaker 5: If the Eagles lose the Bears are locked in at

990
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 5: two either way, so this game may not matter before

991
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:45,439
Speaker 5: it starts or maybe halfway through. I think both teams

992
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 5: are kind of mirror images. You have loaded offense, you

993
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 5: have not really great defenses. Detroit's falling apart with all

994
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 5: their injuries, but Chicago's still not any good. But Detroit

995
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 5: still has won six of sound against the Bears. There's

996
00:46:57,520 --> 00:47:00,440
Speaker 5: still fourteen and three ats coming off the loss. That

997
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,920
Speaker 5: three is ticking up the last few weeks because that's

998
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 5: all that's happening lately with the Lions. But still a

999
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 5: pretty good spot to back. Goff back Campbell as an

1000
00:47:08,600 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 5: underdog against teams above five hundred to me, just motivational spot.

1001
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 5: I just trust the fighting kneecap Dan Campbell's to come

1002
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 5: out here and give it a shot in a game

1003
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 5: that ultimately may not matter for Chicago. So I'll take

1004
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 5: Detroit with the three and the plus one forty money line.

1005
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, overall, Dan Campbell with the Lions four and oh

1006
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 4: straight up ats in week eighteen, and even after the

1007
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,319
Speaker 4: loss of the Vikings, he's eight and two ats week

1008
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 4: seventeen and eighteen, so seems to be finishing the season

1009
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:37,879
Speaker 4: pretty decently, and this one actually kind of like Goff

1010
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 4: and Campbell nineteen to nine against the spread when the

1011
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:41,720
Speaker 4: opponent has the better record.

1012
00:47:42,000 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 2: So a true biting kneecap spot.

1013
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,360
Speaker 4: Where you want to, you know, hurt your opponent.

1014
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 2: And you're right. The Ben Johnson stuff definitely in the

1015
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:49,600
Speaker 2: back of their mind.

1016
00:47:49,640 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 4: He wouldn't mind going to and Oh against him this season,

1017
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 4: So we will see how that goes. All right, let's

1018
00:47:55,160 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 4: keep rolling here. Washington and Philadelphia. Whoof So I believe

1019
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 4: at this point it looks like Philly is resting everyone.

1020
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:06,040
Speaker 4: So we thought hurts early, but it looks like it's

1021
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:08,160
Speaker 4: gonna be Tanner McKee and I think they're just going

1022
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:11,520
Speaker 4: to give themselves a nice break. So with that being said,

1023
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,359
Speaker 4: you got Josh Johnson on the other side. That line

1024
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:16,080
Speaker 4: has come down to about four to four and a

1025
00:48:16,120 --> 00:48:18,200
Speaker 4: half when it was much higher earlier in the week,

1026
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 4: about seven to eight range. So what are you doing

1027
00:48:20,719 --> 00:48:21,680
Speaker 4: with Washington and Philly?

1028
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, that line move is the entire angle for me

1029
00:48:24,600 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 5: in this game. I have to play a Washington. There's

1030
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 5: a four and a half out there. Gave me the

1031
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:30,680
Speaker 5: Commanders four and a half and I'm not gonna tell

1032
00:48:30,719 --> 00:48:33,160
Speaker 5: you one reason why the bet the commanders, I'm gonna

1033
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 5: tell you why the line has to be wrong.

1034
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 2: Here.

1035
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 5: If this move from seven and a half to now

1036
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 5: four and a half, that's basically a three point swing.

1037
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 5: The total also dropped down three points, same sort of thing.

1038
00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,160
Speaker 5: Three points is nowhere near enough for the Eagles, who

1039
00:48:46,200 --> 00:48:48,799
Speaker 5: are the top heaviest team in the entire league. Their

1040
00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,840
Speaker 5: entire roster, his stars and scrubs. The whole thing with

1041
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:55,080
Speaker 5: them is when they're healthy, things can look really good.

1042
00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:58,279
Speaker 5: But when you take Saquan out, who's the backup running back?

1043
00:48:58,400 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 5: When we take out aj or Devonte got it, who

1044
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 5: do they have as st up? Nothing behind those guys

1045
00:49:03,560 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 5: my Latta and Lane Johnson, who's out already the tackles.

1046
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 1: Then a line drops way off after that.

1047
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 5: On defense, they got the star corners, the star defensive tackles,

1048
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 5: rest a couple.

1049
00:49:12,840 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 1: Of those guys, well, who's left?

1050
00:49:14,360 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 5: Like, this is not a team culture team, This is

1051
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 5: a we have invested like eighty percent of our salary

1052
00:49:20,120 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 5: cap into the top like ten dudes on the roster

1053
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 5: who aren't playing on Sunday anymore. So to me, if

1054
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 5: I go through position by position and kind of project

1055
00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:31,200
Speaker 5: if I'm sitting guys, who am I sitting out? I

1056
00:49:31,360 --> 00:49:34,320
Speaker 5: dropped the Eagles down by almost ten points. Off of that,

1057
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,799
Speaker 5: it's hurts, but all those other guys and this line

1058
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,440
Speaker 5: moved about three points. Now, I will say I think

1059
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 5: seven and a half was probably a bit of a hedge.

1060
00:49:42,600 --> 00:49:45,040
Speaker 5: I think that was not the full game line out

1061
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 5: of at Philly minus nine and a half full game,

1062
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 5: so I think there was a little bit baked in

1063
00:49:49,400 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 5: already of we think they might rest guys, now we

1064
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,879
Speaker 5: know they're resting guys. I still think best I could

1065
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 5: do for Philly would be like a coin flip here.

1066
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,279
Speaker 5: I'm not afraid of Tanner McKee Commanders. The one thing

1067
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:04,160
Speaker 5: I will say about them huge special team's edge here

1068
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 5: for them. This is just fully a line play. I'm

1069
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 5: gonna play it aggressively because I think the line is

1070
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:11,759
Speaker 5: very bad, and I think the Eagles don't care if

1071
00:50:11,760 --> 00:50:14,360
Speaker 5: they win this game other than maybe trying to make Tanner.

1072
00:50:14,239 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 1: McKee look good for trades in the future.

1073
00:50:16,520 --> 00:50:18,879
Speaker 5: Give me the Commanders plus four and a half, give

1074
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 5: me them at plus one to eighty on the money line,

1075
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 5: and if they win, why not win comfortably? Washington minus

1076
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:26,719
Speaker 5: six and a half plus three seventy. Who would have

1077
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 5: ever thought that's the game I'm coming at you with

1078
00:50:29,200 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 5: Week eighteen. I just think the line is bad, so

1079
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,319
Speaker 5: that means all the lines are bad, and then last one.

1080
00:50:34,800 --> 00:50:37,480
Speaker 5: If you like the Commanders here, then the Bears game

1081
00:50:37,520 --> 00:50:42,359
Speaker 5: doesn't matter anymore. Commanders lines, money line parlay. That's correlated

1082
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 5: plus five thirty six. So I just think if the

1083
00:50:46,080 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 5: Eagles truly fully rest, they don't really care if they

1084
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 5: win or lose this one. They're just gonna treat it

1085
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,360
Speaker 5: as a bye week, and if Washington gets an advantage,

1086
00:50:54,520 --> 00:50:56,239
Speaker 5: they can win, and that sets up a lot of

1087
00:50:56,320 --> 00:50:59,719
Speaker 5: good numbers advantage here. So fully just numbers play for

1088
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:03,040
Speaker 5: me having the line moved anywhere near correctly on the sut.

1089
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:04,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, Sirianni's been in the spot a few times. It

1090
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 4: feels like later in the season. I mean week sixteen

1091
00:51:07,560 --> 00:51:10,120
Speaker 4: to eighteen. He's just five and nine against the spread,

1092
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:12,480
Speaker 4: second worst of any head coach since he got the job.

1093
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 4: Shane Stikeen is one in seven in that spot.

1094
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 2: Philly.

1095
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,879
Speaker 4: They've blown out a few people, but they've only won

1096
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:20,800
Speaker 4: three of those fourteen games by nine plus, so you know,

1097
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 4: no one's playing I just think they're scared of the

1098
00:51:24,560 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 4: line falling too much lower when you did get some

1099
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,320
Speaker 4: people on the seven and a half's and this and

1100
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,000
Speaker 4: that early in the week, So I think it probably

1101
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:35,440
Speaker 4: either way will close in that three or four ringe,

1102
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 4: even with Josh Johnson on the other side, I mean,

1103
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:41,320
Speaker 4: on the favorites. Earlier today they took Washington on the forest.

1104
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 4: Seems like everyone is intrigued by that side, especially it

1105
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:47,880
Speaker 4: looks like they're playing hard. For Quinn, They've been eliminated

1106
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:50,200
Speaker 4: for a few weeks, but when they went out there

1107
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 4: against Denver early in the season and they went for

1108
00:51:52,800 --> 00:51:54,800
Speaker 4: the two point conversion, like it does feel like no

1109
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:58,040
Speaker 4: matter what the circumstances is, that team is playing hard.

1110
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 4: And all you can really ask for in Week eighteen

1111
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:04,360
Speaker 4: in this spot is you know a team cares, because

1112
00:52:04,400 --> 00:52:06,480
Speaker 4: I think at this moment that's something we all kind

1113
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:09,359
Speaker 4: of question. So with the play, I like it at

1114
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:12,359
Speaker 4: four higher. So I'm with you on Washington, But Josh

1115
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 4: Johnson is Josh Johnson, so you kind of just take

1116
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,759
Speaker 4: it with what you will. He might scramble a little bit,

1117
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 4: but not terrible. So I'm with you on Washington. Stay

1118
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:26,440
Speaker 4: in the NFC East here Giants and Cowboys. I mean,

1119
00:52:26,840 --> 00:52:29,160
Speaker 4: this line has also crashed a bunch, But we were

1120
00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:32,480
Speaker 4: told a few weeks ago Dallas is playing their people

1121
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:35,000
Speaker 4: like they're treating this as if they need the game,

1122
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:39,080
Speaker 4: and et cetera, et cetera. We saw maybe the Giants

1123
00:52:39,160 --> 00:52:43,600
Speaker 4: peak last week like they completely dominated the Raiders. They said,

1124
00:52:43,640 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 4: screw the draft pick. This is a bit of a

1125
00:52:45,880 --> 00:52:48,799
Speaker 4: different spot as Dallas is a bit emotional for them.

1126
00:52:48,880 --> 00:52:50,320
Speaker 4: So what do you think we do with Dallas and

1127
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:50,680
Speaker 4: New York.

1128
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm so mad that this line is sitting at

1129
00:52:53,560 --> 00:52:55,919
Speaker 5: minus three and a half that I have to play

1130
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,439
Speaker 5: this line. It's begging me to go Dallas. I'm gonna

1131
00:52:58,480 --> 00:53:01,400
Speaker 5: invest in a little Cowboys here. I don't understand I

1132
00:53:01,400 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 5: would make this Cowboys a nine and a half. Like

1133
00:53:03,560 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 5: I'm texting people saying, is Dallas tanking?

1134
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 4: Like?

1135
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 5: What am I missing on this line? We literally talked

1136
00:53:08,840 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 5: about this Evan on our last podcast, like, be careful

1137
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:14,360
Speaker 5: with week eighteen. If a lion looks goofy, probably somebody

1138
00:53:14,440 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 5: knows something you don't. But it sure looks like Dallas

1139
00:53:17,320 --> 00:53:20,200
Speaker 5: is trying. Dak wants to win the passing yardage crown.

1140
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:21,960
Speaker 5: He's just a little bit of had of Stafford here.

1141
00:53:22,400 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 5: Pickens has got some incentives. I think Dallas's offense is

1142
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:27,359
Speaker 5: gonna go here. They're gonna rest their defense for all

1143
00:53:27,400 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 5: like here, Dallas the rest of their defense the entire season.

1144
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:32,360
Speaker 5: I don't really hear what happens on that side. Dallas

1145
00:53:32,480 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 5: is already on extra rest. I think Brian Schottenhrmer would

1146
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 5: like to get to five hundred, which they do with

1147
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 5: the win here exactly five hundred because they had the

1148
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,120
Speaker 5: tie in there. And the Giants don't tell me that

1149
00:53:42,160 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 5: they're just gonna go back to winning.

1150
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:43,759
Speaker 2: Now.

1151
00:53:44,160 --> 00:53:46,800
Speaker 5: We just saw last year they won and cost themselves

1152
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 5: a number one pick and then immediately lost to the

1153
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:51,239
Speaker 5: Eagles backups in Week eighteen. So it's not like the

1154
00:53:51,320 --> 00:53:53,239
Speaker 5: Giants are just a winning team now. The Giants has

1155
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,120
Speaker 5: played the Raiders last week. They need to learn nothing

1156
00:53:55,160 --> 00:53:58,000
Speaker 5: about that. So we know what these teams are. Both

1157
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,839
Speaker 5: awful defenses, both better offense. Dallas has obviously the way

1158
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:04,719
Speaker 5: better offense. Clayton Adams. We've talked about him a lot.

1159
00:54:05,080 --> 00:54:07,280
Speaker 5: They're gonna be able to run all over on the Giants.

1160
00:54:07,320 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 5: I think they'll pass enough. The receivers can beat those cornerbacks.

1161
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:12,440
Speaker 5: This is when you back Dak and when you back

1162
00:54:12,520 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 5: Dallas as favorites in the division against bad teams.

1163
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:16,280
Speaker 1: This is the spot.

1164
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:19,480
Speaker 5: So maybe it's a bad spot because there's something we

1165
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:21,880
Speaker 5: don't know, but if Dallas tries at all, I have

1166
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:24,920
Speaker 5: to like them here. They've won sixteen of seventeen against

1167
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,320
Speaker 5: the Giants thirty points or more, and over half of

1168
00:54:27,400 --> 00:54:30,120
Speaker 5: those thirty six or more in six of those fourteen

1169
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:33,759
Speaker 5: of their last fourteen. So to me, Dallas minus three

1170
00:54:33,800 --> 00:54:35,759
Speaker 5: and a half is literally a criminal line if this

1171
00:54:35,880 --> 00:54:38,280
Speaker 5: is a full strength game, So I'm playing the Cowboys.

1172
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 5: The Giants have allowed twenty nine points a game in

1173
00:54:40,520 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 5: their losses, thirty three or more and almost half of them.

1174
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:46,400
Speaker 5: So my escalator here here we are Cowboys escalator in

1175
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,440
Speaker 5: Week eighteen over thirty three and a half points for

1176
00:54:49,600 --> 00:54:53,320
Speaker 5: the Cowboys plus three thirty if they try offensively, I

1177
00:54:53,360 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 5: think they could just name their number and end the

1178
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:55,680
Speaker 5: season on the high.

1179
00:54:55,680 --> 00:54:57,520
Speaker 1: And I think Dallas would like to deal that, honestly.

1180
00:54:58,160 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, you had mentioned the success.

1181
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 4: I mean DA fourteen and two straight up ten and

1182
00:55:02,360 --> 00:55:04,760
Speaker 4: six against the spread versus the Giants. He's won fourteen

1183
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 4: straight against them and here's the one I take away.

1184
00:55:07,840 --> 00:55:10,959
Speaker 4: Dallas has lost four straight against the spread entering this game,

1185
00:55:11,040 --> 00:55:13,959
Speaker 4: but who cares. I mean, they've scored twenty six points

1186
00:55:14,000 --> 00:55:16,719
Speaker 4: per game in those games, and the reason why they're

1187
00:55:16,760 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 4: own four against the spread their defense has allowed thirty

1188
00:55:19,680 --> 00:55:22,680
Speaker 4: four points per game during that stretch. That's not what

1189
00:55:22,800 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 4: you're going to get from the Giants here. So I mean,

1190
00:55:25,280 --> 00:55:28,400
Speaker 4: as long as that twenty six steams kind of consistent,

1191
00:55:28,800 --> 00:55:30,919
Speaker 4: I don't expect them to allow that type of game.

1192
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:33,080
Speaker 4: And I do see Dallas's offense getting a little bit

1193
00:55:33,160 --> 00:55:37,720
Speaker 4: back on track. So this is the normal letdown spot

1194
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:41,120
Speaker 4: after the massive Raiders win, which I know that locker

1195
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,359
Speaker 4: room was like, screw the draft pick, let's show up,

1196
00:55:44,719 --> 00:55:46,040
Speaker 4: let's show everyone what we got.

1197
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:47,359
Speaker 2: And then this one.

1198
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 4: I think they got their flights already booked.

1199
00:55:50,320 --> 00:55:52,000
Speaker 2: So I'm with you on Dallas.

1200
00:55:52,800 --> 00:55:57,759
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep rolling here. Bengals and Browns. We

1201
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:00,520
Speaker 4: had talked about this earlier as well in the Favorites

1202
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:06,520
Speaker 4: like the Browns might have the craziest home field advantage

1203
00:56:06,719 --> 00:56:09,839
Speaker 4: in terms of their home road splits than we really seen,

1204
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,759
Speaker 4: like they are a much better home team, which I

1205
00:56:12,840 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 4: do sometimes I do feel like is the handicap in

1206
00:56:15,880 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 4: this game. So how are you taking Cincinnati and Cleveland?

1207
00:56:18,719 --> 00:56:18,919
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1208
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 5: I think again, we kind of know what these teams

1209
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:23,000
Speaker 5: are at this point. The Bengals defense is terrible, but

1210
00:56:23,080 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 5: not as bad lately, but we know their offense is

1211
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 5: going to score points. They're going to score points all

1212
00:56:27,080 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 5: season long. Brown's awful offense, awful special teams worse than

1213
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 5: the league. Both of those Bengals big special teams advantage

1214
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 5: should set them up for some easy scores here. And yeah,

1215
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 5: the whole thing is this crazy home road split for

1216
00:56:39,840 --> 00:56:43,120
Speaker 5: the Browns defense. Defense is already falling in the last

1217
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 5: six weeks. They're only kind of fringe top ten, still

1218
00:56:46,360 --> 00:56:48,200
Speaker 5: very good, as bad as the rest of the team is.

1219
00:56:48,840 --> 00:56:51,040
Speaker 5: That's a far cry from like top three earlier in

1220
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:53,319
Speaker 5: the year. And they've been way worse on the road

1221
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,600
Speaker 5: this season. When they have played on the road against

1222
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:59,680
Speaker 5: a top half of the league offense by DVOA, Cleveland

1223
00:56:59,719 --> 00:57:03,080
Speaker 5: allow thirty one, thirty two, thirty four and forty one points.

1224
00:57:03,520 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 5: This is not new, We've had this on the pod before.

1225
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 5: Trend from Klevda since twenty twenty three. The opponent is

1226
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 5: now twenty two and four to the team total when

1227
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 5: the Browns are on the road, they're at twenty two

1228
00:57:15,719 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 5: and four by almost a full touchdown and game, including

1229
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:21,800
Speaker 5: over a third of those by more than ten points

1230
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:24,880
Speaker 5: a game. So I think the Bengals can possibly hang

1231
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 5: a huge number here without Jake Browning, who we know

1232
00:57:27,840 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 5: is terrible this year. Twelve other Bengals games, Bengals scored

1233
00:57:31,840 --> 00:57:34,000
Speaker 5: thirty one or more and over half of those games

1234
00:57:34,080 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 5: thirty seven or more in four of their last nine games,

1235
00:57:37,240 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 5: even though they had the weird goofy shutout shutout in

1236
00:57:39,760 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 5: there as well. So again, what makes sense from a

1237
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:46,480
Speaker 5: narrative standpoint here? The Browns finally got that big win

1238
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,560
Speaker 5: all right, Well they lose again too late to tank.

1239
00:57:49,680 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 5: That's classic Browns, and the Bengals score big, too late

1240
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:55,480
Speaker 5: to matter. Yet again the team nobody wants to play

1241
00:57:55,480 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 5: in the playoffs and doesn't have to. So give me

1242
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 5: a Bengals team total escalator over twenty six and a half.

1243
00:58:01,400 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 5: That's the line is too low, and then thirty one

1244
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 5: or more points plus one sixty five and just in

1245
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 5: case they get a biggest closion late, I know Jamar

1246
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 5: Chase has some good incentives. He's gonna win another big

1247
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:14,960
Speaker 5: game forty or more points for the Bengals plus six

1248
00:58:15,120 --> 00:58:17,920
Speaker 5: twenty five. I think the Browns and the Bengals go

1249
00:58:18,000 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 5: out exactly like we've seen them all season.

1250
00:58:20,160 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, And obviously Brown's off the win. They are zero

1251
00:58:22,440 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 4: and six against the spread after a straight up win

1252
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,000
Speaker 4: this year, filling the cover by eleven point four points

1253
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 4: per game. And in those six games after the win,

1254
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:32,880
Speaker 4: their opponents are scoring thirty point two points per game.

1255
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:35,440
Speaker 4: And I think the other interesting angle, which we always

1256
00:58:35,520 --> 00:58:38,640
Speaker 4: talk about is Burrow against the Browns. He's had his

1257
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 4: struggles before, but it's mostly on the road. On the

1258
00:58:41,360 --> 00:58:44,800
Speaker 4: road against Cleveland, he averages sixteen point eight points per game.

1259
00:58:44,880 --> 00:58:47,360
Speaker 4: At home, it's up to twenty four point three, almost

1260
00:58:47,400 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 4: a six point i'm sorry, eight point difference. So to me,

1261
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:53,640
Speaker 4: it's the right play and I do feel like both

1262
00:58:53,640 --> 00:58:56,600
Speaker 4: of those storylines will continue. Cleveland will struggle after the win,

1263
00:58:57,000 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 4: the Bengals will look great, the offense will look fantastic,

1264
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:02,800
Speaker 4: and they will continue to miss the playoffs entering the offseason.

1265
00:59:03,120 --> 00:59:07,440
Speaker 4: All right, let's keep rolling here, New England and Miami. Obviously,

1266
00:59:07,560 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 4: nothing on the road here. For Miami, it looks like

1267
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:11,240
Speaker 4: a lot of people are going to sit in this game.

1268
00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:13,320
Speaker 4: A lot of people not practicing this week. Seems like

1269
00:59:13,400 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 4: eight chan waddle might have some be out of this game.

1270
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 4: And on the other side, Drake May playing for the

1271
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 4: MVP basically in this situation, obviously the cold weather for

1272
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 4: Miami as well, a lot of different factors.

1273
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 2: So how are you handicapping this one?

1274
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,240
Speaker 5: I'm gonna play a little, Drake May. I think it's

1275
00:59:30,280 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 5: finally a time to admit I think the MVP is over.

1276
00:59:32,920 --> 00:59:36,280
Speaker 5: We watched it die on Monday Night. Stafford three interceptions

1277
00:59:36,400 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 5: was terrible and a lot of folks tailed fifty to

1278
00:59:39,240 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 5: one before the season. Want in my comment on it,

1279
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 5: I think it's fifty to one Stafford now rip along

1280
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 5: with in the last five years alone Perty fifty to one.

1281
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 5: Two years ago, we had that ticket December favorite and

1282
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:55,800
Speaker 5: then lost that big Lamar game on Christmas Tom Brady

1283
00:59:55,880 --> 00:59:58,800
Speaker 5: fourteen to one before the season, had the Thursday Night

1284
00:59:58,920 --> 01:00:02,200
Speaker 5: nine to six loss in December lost it. Look, if

1285
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 5: your a future is better, if you're good at your job,

1286
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 5: you should have heartbreak like this. It stinks, but you

1287
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:10,240
Speaker 5: should have tickets that get all the way there and

1288
01:00:10,320 --> 01:00:12,560
Speaker 5: almost cash and then don't quite get there. That's how

1289
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:14,920
Speaker 5: long shot bets go. You kind of have to live

1290
01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:16,960
Speaker 5: with it. I didn't cash any of these out. I'm

1291
01:00:16,960 --> 01:00:18,480
Speaker 5: just kind of playing it out. And if you want

1292
01:00:18,520 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 5: to hit the fifty to one, you got to lose

1293
01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:21,480
Speaker 5: some close fifty to ones.

1294
01:00:21,600 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 1: But am I investing a.

1295
01:00:23,040 --> 01:00:25,320
Speaker 5: Little bit Drake May here to get a little bit

1296
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 5: back on the MVP push. Yes, absolutely, Dolphins pass defense,

1297
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 5: even as they got better this season elsewhere never pass

1298
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:36,120
Speaker 5: defense seventh and pass touchdowns allowed one point seventy five

1299
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,440
Speaker 5: a game, two or more and ten of sixteen. But

1300
01:00:38,960 --> 01:00:41,400
Speaker 5: look a little closer to the schedule. They only played

1301
01:00:41,440 --> 01:00:44,360
Speaker 5: the QB one on the other team eleven times. All

1302
01:00:44,520 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 5: ten games that they gave up two touchdowns or more

1303
01:00:47,200 --> 01:00:50,440
Speaker 5: passing was against the QB one, So ten of eleven

1304
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,160
Speaker 5: two touchdowns are more against QB one. And then look

1305
01:00:53,240 --> 01:00:53,840
Speaker 5: at who.

1306
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,080
Speaker 1: They face as the top guys.

1307
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:58,280
Speaker 5: If you take guys that are consensus top ten quarterbacks

1308
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 5: Josh Allen twice for Myami, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert and of

1309
01:01:02,400 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 5: course May once before six games Miami's played a top

1310
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:09,600
Speaker 5: ten quarterback, they allowed eighteen total touchdowns to those quarterbacks,

1311
01:01:09,640 --> 01:01:13,400
Speaker 5: so three per game, including three three four and four

1312
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:17,000
Speaker 5: in those six games to those quarterbacks. Drake May two

1313
01:01:17,120 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 5: touchdowns are more eleven times already a couple threes, and

1314
01:01:20,080 --> 01:01:23,480
Speaker 5: then five last week, the perfect stat padding time against

1315
01:01:23,520 --> 01:01:26,520
Speaker 5: the Jets. Well, guess what, Miami's a stat padding team

1316
01:01:26,600 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 5: two And if we're gonna lose MVP, we may.

1317
01:01:29,080 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 1: As well lose it in style.

1318
01:01:30,440 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 5: So over one and a half touchdowns for Drake May,

1319
01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:35,760
Speaker 5: it's minus one sixty. But I think we're drinking the

1320
01:01:35,840 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 5: juice because that is kind of the baseline against Miami.

1321
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:42,400
Speaker 5: Three touchdowns passing plus two to sixty four at plus

1322
01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 5: eight fifty, I'd play five, honestly if I haven't seen

1323
01:01:45,400 --> 01:01:48,360
Speaker 5: a line out there, But we probably get one by Sunday,

1324
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 5: And look, we might not need the whole game because

1325
01:01:51,320 --> 01:01:53,640
Speaker 5: probably this could be a blowout and then the Patriots

1326
01:01:53,680 --> 01:01:56,560
Speaker 5: maybe rest a little bit. Drake May threw five touchdowns

1327
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 5: last week, playing one drive I think of the second half,

1328
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 5: so we might I not even need the whole gaming

1329
01:02:01,160 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 5: if we don't get it. Drake made touchdowns escalator and

1330
01:02:04,000 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 5: that just last note, no pick six this week because

1331
01:02:06,600 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 5: it was Week eighteen. But if you just look back

1332
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 5: at the games we just talked about Patriots, Bengals, Cowboys, favored, Commanders, Lions,

1333
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:16,960
Speaker 5: Saints as underdogs. There is your pick six for the week.

1334
01:02:17,040 --> 01:02:19,920
Speaker 5: Three dogs, three favorites. It's about thirty six to one.

1335
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 5: If you want to go pick six, that would be

1336
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:23,480
Speaker 5: my play for the week as well.

1337
01:02:23,840 --> 01:02:26,120
Speaker 4: The one thing I did see with Drake may last

1338
01:02:26,200 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 4: seven starts on normal seven day rest, you know, Sunday

1339
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:33,720
Speaker 4: to Sunday nineteen passing touchdowns two point seven per game

1340
01:02:34,280 --> 01:02:38,120
Speaker 4: in that stretch, so you know that is absolutely in fuego.

1341
01:02:38,680 --> 01:02:40,800
Speaker 4: And this was in the primer. But as a favorite

1342
01:02:40,800 --> 01:02:42,360
Speaker 4: of three points and more, he is nine and oh

1343
01:02:42,600 --> 01:02:44,600
Speaker 4: straight up seven to two against the spread. So he

1344
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,880
Speaker 4: has been very very good as a good favorite. And

1345
01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 4: Patriots are ten and oh this season versus teams under

1346
01:02:51,200 --> 01:02:54,120
Speaker 4: five hundred, winning by fourteen to eight per game, which

1347
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:57,200
Speaker 4: is crazy in itself. Brayble ain't letting up here. There's

1348
01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 4: a lot on the line. He could win Coach Coach

1349
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:01,920
Speaker 4: of the Year. Patriots want momentum heading into the playoffs.

1350
01:03:02,080 --> 01:03:04,240
Speaker 4: They want to lock up the MVP. This feels like

1351
01:03:04,360 --> 01:03:08,680
Speaker 4: a statement blowout Miami kind of and everything going into

1352
01:03:08,720 --> 01:03:12,440
Speaker 4: the playoffs. Your pick six you already mentioned let's do

1353
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:13,480
Speaker 4: it playoff time.

1354
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,439
Speaker 2: Let's talk ahead, skim a shot. How about next week?

1355
01:03:19,000 --> 01:03:27,560
Speaker 4: Buset mindset, so you got look aheads here. There are

1356
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:30,440
Speaker 4: spreads for some of these wildcard matchups, and then obviously

1357
01:03:30,520 --> 01:03:33,880
Speaker 4: there's things like elimination stages, like all sorts of different

1358
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 4: ways to play this.

1359
01:03:34,840 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 2: So talk to me about the playoffs.

1360
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:41,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, just really quickly wrapping up these playoff contingent matchups,

1361
01:03:41,360 --> 01:03:44,560
Speaker 5: Like we've got like a Rams Eagles matchup. If that

1362
01:03:44,720 --> 01:03:47,080
Speaker 5: game doesn't happen, you just get your money back, so

1363
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:50,680
Speaker 5: there's no real concern of you're not betting on this

1364
01:03:50,880 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 5: is the matchup, and here's who I think. Make sure

1365
01:03:53,800 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 5: to kind of check your books for those details. But

1366
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:57,960
Speaker 5: the main thing I wanted here on the game next

1367
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 5: week is that four C NFC is going to be

1368
01:04:01,560 --> 01:04:03,920
Speaker 5: the Bucks of the Panthers by far, my worst team

1369
01:04:03,960 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 5: in the playoffs, in in all likelihood they're gonna play

1370
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:09,520
Speaker 5: either the Seahawks or the Rams, who are my two

1371
01:04:09,600 --> 01:04:12,240
Speaker 5: best teams in the playoffs. That's the game I want.

1372
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 5: I wanted anywhere I can find it Seahawks or Rams

1373
01:04:15,920 --> 01:04:18,520
Speaker 5: at Panthers or Bucks under touchdown? Can you give me

1374
01:04:18,680 --> 01:04:21,200
Speaker 5: any combo like that anywhere on the board in a

1375
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:24,000
Speaker 5: one major book out there, I see a Seattle minus

1376
01:04:24,000 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 5: six and a half at Tampa Bay. That's look ahead

1377
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:29,720
Speaker 5: pick for this week. I make both of those Seahawks

1378
01:04:29,840 --> 01:04:33,640
Speaker 5: Rams teams closer to more than a touchdown at Tampa,

1379
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 5: closer to double digits at Carolina. It's my top two teams.

1380
01:04:37,520 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 5: I have Carolina and the Buccaneers. Here's kind of where

1381
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 5: I put them in my power ratings right now. For comparison,

1382
01:04:43,360 --> 01:04:48,360
Speaker 5: they're below Dallas, Indy, This Indy, Cincinnati and Minnesota, then

1383
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:51,080
Speaker 5: Tampa and Carolina. That's what we're looking at. I have

1384
01:04:51,240 --> 01:04:55,480
Speaker 5: Seattle and La plus eight on a neutral field compared

1385
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:58,600
Speaker 5: to a neutral team have the Bucks and Panthers negative

1386
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:01,840
Speaker 5: minus one, minus two. And by the way, nobody else

1387
01:05:01,880 --> 01:05:03,720
Speaker 5: is even above a plus five. That's how far ahead

1388
01:05:03,720 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 5: to have Rams and Seahawks from the field. So this

1389
01:05:06,040 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 5: is the biggest matchup we'll get in the playoffs, the

1390
01:05:08,600 --> 01:05:12,400
Speaker 5: biggest matchup difference, I should say, so Seattle under touchdown

1391
01:05:12,800 --> 01:05:15,040
Speaker 5: and you know, check your books any other matchup like

1392
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:18,840
Speaker 5: that in that combination, either of those teams below a touchdown.

1393
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:20,800
Speaker 5: I'd love to get money on that. Just two other

1394
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 5: lines quickly that caught my eye. Bears minus one oh

1395
01:05:24,040 --> 01:05:27,920
Speaker 5: six as money line underdogs home against the Packers. I

1396
01:05:28,080 --> 01:05:30,040
Speaker 5: make the Bears favored by more than the field goal

1397
01:05:30,200 --> 01:05:34,120
Speaker 5: with all those Packers' injuries, So not comfortable Chicago Green

1398
01:05:34,160 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 5: Bay if we get it, but minus one of six

1399
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:38,800
Speaker 5: money line, and then Rams money line minus one twenty

1400
01:05:39,280 --> 01:05:41,760
Speaker 5: at the Eagles. Again, I have the Rams by overfield

1401
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:44,439
Speaker 5: goal in that matchup, and those are both uncomfortable matchups there.

1402
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:46,920
Speaker 5: We've seen Rams Eagles play earlier this year and the

1403
01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 5: playoffs last year. But the Rams are my top team.

1404
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:51,960
Speaker 5: So just a team that I would have to bet

1405
01:05:52,040 --> 01:05:54,640
Speaker 5: as a basically a coin flip sort of money line.

1406
01:05:55,000 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 5: So Bears home versus Packers, Rams home at the Rams

1407
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:02,240
Speaker 5: at the Eagles, but the main one Seattle minus six

1408
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:05,040
Speaker 5: and a half at Tampa. That's the line for look ahead,

1409
01:06:05,160 --> 01:06:06,800
Speaker 5: and I'll get to the playoffs and go from there.

1410
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:09,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I guess at that point with Seattle,

1411
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:10,959
Speaker 4: I mean a big favorite. It's been a good spot

1412
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:13,440
Speaker 4: for Donald. He's thirteen and oh straight up ten and

1413
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:15,200
Speaker 4: three on the number. When he is a favorite of

1414
01:06:15,280 --> 01:06:17,920
Speaker 4: six points or more so in that spot that is

1415
01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:20,600
Speaker 4: where he would be with Tampa Bay. The great thing

1416
01:06:20,640 --> 01:06:22,760
Speaker 4: about that Rams Philly game, like there is going to

1417
01:06:22,840 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 4: be a bunch of revenge on the table. Like McVeigh

1418
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:27,919
Speaker 4: first of all, Rams one in ten straight up versus

1419
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:30,120
Speaker 4: Philly since two thousand and five. McVeigh is one and

1420
01:06:30,320 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 4: six in those games. So he will definitely know his

1421
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:36,560
Speaker 4: struggles and be prepared. And that is a very short line.

1422
01:06:36,720 --> 01:06:38,760
Speaker 4: Just pick your winner, which is intriguing enough.

1423
01:06:39,160 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 2: All right, that'll do it.

1424
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:44,080
Speaker 4: Here on the Action Hour podcast for NFL Week eighteen

1425
01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:48,120
Speaker 4: Best Bets episode presented by DraftKings. If you want instant

1426
01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:51,200
Speaker 4: notifications when action experts track their bets, go to Action

1427
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:54,320
Speaker 4: hour dot com slash Pro use a promo code pod

1428
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:57,120
Speaker 4: twenty Pod twenty for twenty dollars off a year of

1429
01:06:57,240 --> 01:06:59,600
Speaker 4: Action Pro. If you haven't yet, check out our new

1430
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:02,960
Speaker 4: a I Quick slipot on x just tag playbook at

1431
01:07:03,040 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 4: playbook tell it to grab whatever bets you're looking for.

1432
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 4: It'll create a quick slip link for you in a

1433
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:12,440
Speaker 4: matter of seconds. Whether it's straight wagers, parlays, props, whatever

1434
01:07:12,520 --> 01:07:14,760
Speaker 4: you need, it is there for you. And again, if

1435
01:07:14,800 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 4: you want to tell some of the bets we gave

1436
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:17,960
Speaker 4: out today, make sure to look for the quick slip

1437
01:07:18,040 --> 01:07:21,600
Speaker 4: link and in the video description or podcast link.

1438
01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:24,120
Speaker 2: Go to Action hower dot com slash bet Now.

1439
01:07:24,600 --> 01:07:28,400
Speaker 4: We'll be back Sunday night for our NFL recap show

1440
01:07:28,600 --> 01:07:33,120
Speaker 4: after Steelers and Ravens to recap everything and talk about

1441
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:34,400
Speaker 4: the playoff picture coming up.

1442
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:36,200
Speaker 2: Give you some bets and some leans.

1443
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 4: We will be live on Action Networks YouTube page shortly

1444
01:07:38,800 --> 01:07:41,600
Speaker 4: after Sunday Night football. Look for the link on Action

1445
01:07:41,720 --> 01:07:45,440
Speaker 4: Networks Twitter page. We will have it retweeted. Be very

1446
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,880
Speaker 4: easy to access and come hang out with us.

1447
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 2: Thank you for.

1448
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:51,520
Speaker 4: Listening, enjoy the slate, Good luck with all your bets

1449
01:07:51,560 --> 01:07:53,600
Speaker 4: this weekend. It is going to be a fun one

1450
01:07:53,680 --> 01:07:54,520
Speaker 4: and it's the last.

1451
01:07:54,960 --> 01:07:55,680
Speaker 2: Thank you. Scotti.

1452
01:08:11,120 --> 01:08:14,520
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1453
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:17,759
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1454
01:08:18,120 --> 01:08:20,720
Speaker 4: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1455
01:08:20,800 --> 01:08:21,559
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler