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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud read enough? They're running a game so smooth,

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Speaker 2: so sweet, splendid, sixteen glorious extrocution. Guys, all I'm looking

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Speaker 2: for is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shut with that shop with mind bog, buddy, And that's.

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Speaker 2: Why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 2: the most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up.

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Speaker 2: I'm a love it left to one the wide eyed

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Speaker 2: drill refuge. How old earth that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to Wondergul, a new soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 3: from the Action Network. I'm your host, Michael Lieba, and

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Speaker 3: every Monday and there's I'll be joined by my Action

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Speaker 3: colleagues BJ Cunningham and ANTHONYA.

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Speaker 1: Bundo. Together, the three of us will.

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Speaker 3: Handicap games from the Champions League to Premier League, Bundesliga, Siria,

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Speaker 3: La Liga and even legal. Before we get to the board,

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Speaker 3: I do have one piece of business to attend to.

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Speaker 3: To celebrate this new journey we're all on, We're holding

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Speaker 3: a contest and all you need to do to enter

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Speaker 3: said contest is leave us a nice review on the

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Speaker 3: Wonder Gold podcast feed. If you do that and leave

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Speaker 3: your Twitter handle in the review, you will be entered

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Speaker 3: to win the soccer jersey of your choice from this season. Now,

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Speaker 3: with that out of the way, let's get to this

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Speaker 3: week's headliner, which is taking place at Old Trafford, the

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Speaker 3: Theater of Dreams. It features Liverpool There plus one twenty

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Speaker 3: five favorites on the road at man United plus two

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Speaker 3: ten the draws plus two sixty. This is the eleven

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Speaker 3: thirty ams kickoff on Sunday. BJ Let's break it down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Liverpool is gonna mollywop Manchester United on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: I mean Manchester United's offensive progression is very bad right now.

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Speaker 2: I mean they've scored sixteen goals off of nine point

34
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Speaker 2: one post shot expected goals. That really doesn't even begin

35
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Speaker 2: to tell the story with how hot Oldgunner Shall starter

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Speaker 2: seat is right now. I mean Manchester United is the

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Speaker 2: most pressured team in the Premier League and Leicester last

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Speaker 2: weekend had the most pressures of anybody in any match

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Speaker 2: in the Premier League this season, and Manchester United really

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Speaker 2: struggled against that. Well, guess what now they're facing Uren

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Speaker 2: klop and Liverpool's high press that is going to cause

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Speaker 2: so many problems. Liverpool is second the season and passes

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Speaker 2: for defensive action first in ball recoveries. Now, with that

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Speaker 2: being said, Liverpool's defense has been pretty shaky. We saw

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Speaker 2: that in the Champions League on Wednesday against Athletico Madrid.

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Speaker 2: They lost on expected goals and they haven't really faced

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Speaker 2: any halfway decent attacks in the Premier League outside of

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Speaker 2: you know, Manchester City. So I'm going to trust Liverpool's

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Speaker 2: offense here because it looks pretty much unstoppable right now,

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Speaker 2: averaging two point six five non penalty expected goals for match,

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Speaker 2: which is first in the Premier League over twenty shots

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Speaker 2: per ninety minutes. They've created twenty three big scoring chances

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Speaker 2: already in eight matches, and they're second in the league

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Speaker 2: in box entries and crosses completed in the eighteen yard box.

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Speaker 2: And Manchester United's defense really honestly just got exposed against

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Speaker 2: Lester this past weekend and against Atlanta on Wednesday in

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Speaker 2: the Champions League. So they haven't been that great so

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Speaker 2: far this season. Eleventh in non penalty goals expected goals

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Speaker 2: allowed and eleventh and big scoring chances allowed. So I'm

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Speaker 2: gonna go Liverpool over one and a half goals at

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Speaker 2: minus one fifteen. I'm gonna trust their offense given their

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Speaker 2: defensive regression, that's probably gonna happen. So I really just

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Speaker 2: don't see how Liverpool's not going to put two on

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Speaker 2: the board here at Old Trafford.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, another interesting performance from Manchester United. Their game plan

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Speaker 3: seems to just be to hang around in games and

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Speaker 3: then hope that they get enough moments of magic from

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Speaker 3: either Bruno Fernandez, Christiano Ronaldo, Marcus Rashford, because they do

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Speaker 3: have a ton of talent, right, so they're never really

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Speaker 3: out of a game, and that seems to be what

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Speaker 3: all a gunners sell Shires plan is, Like, you guys,

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Speaker 3: just hang around in this game somehow and then hopefully

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Speaker 3: in the eighty second minute we'll score. Well, you know,

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Speaker 3: Ronaldo Topoka goal in in the six yard box. Both

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Speaker 3: teams to score in this game is minus one ninety five,

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Speaker 3: So that tells you that bookmakers are expecting so at

77
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Speaker 3: least a little back and forth. So I actually like

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Speaker 3: the over. It's over three plus one ten. I think

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Speaker 3: this game, Like BJ said, I don't see Liverpool having

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Speaker 3: many problems getting at least one or two. I think

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Speaker 3: United will get on the board. I could see this being,

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Speaker 3: you know, a two two three two kind of game,

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Speaker 3: So I like to over it three and if I

84
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Speaker 3: I'm kind of tempted by United, but I want to

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Speaker 3: see if this number ticks up a little bit before

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Speaker 3: the game, before game time, you know, maybe play plus

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Speaker 3: two thirty plus two fifty in that range, and then

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Speaker 3: I'll definitely be interested in in a team that I

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Speaker 3: really don't want to bet and a team that I

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Speaker 3: don't want to bet against. But hell, if we're not

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Speaker 3: doing this for the pain, what are we doing it before, right, Anthony?

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Speaker 4: And there's actually a case to be made for this

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Speaker 4: not quite being as open as as you know the

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Speaker 4: numbers which suggest it is. And then the one argument

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Speaker 4: for that is that going to Soli Shar in the past,

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Speaker 4: when he's played up against some of the bigger Premier

97
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Speaker 4: League sides, has often tended for a very conservative, very

98
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Speaker 4: pragmatic approach. I think there was some record of like

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Speaker 4: a dozen six or a half dozen six straight zero

100
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Speaker 4: zero games involving Manchester United with Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester

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Speaker 4: City last season.

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Speaker 1: There was not a lot of goals to be had.

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Speaker 4: They're going to bunker in and in a lot of

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Speaker 4: ways it actually suits Manchester United a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not going to get and backed a defense.

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Speaker 4: Like Bja mentioned, They're eleventh and non penalty xg allowed

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Speaker 4: their eleventh and big scoring chances, eighth in shots, pretty

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Speaker 4: mediocre numbers across the board defensively, and that's playing teams

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Speaker 4: that are much worse than Liverpool offensive and they have

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Speaker 4: not played any attack that I would consider in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League's Elite two best attacks. They have played at

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Speaker 4: in Leicester City in West Ham we're probably in that

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Speaker 4: second tier. But they haven't played Chelsea, they have not

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Speaker 4: played City, they have not played Liverpool, Tottenham, Arsenal, any

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Speaker 4: of those teams who you would consider in the Big six.

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Speaker 4: So this is really going to be their first true

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Speaker 4: challenge and they have not even passed their minor challenges

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Speaker 4: so far. I'm staying away from this one right now.

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Speaker 4: I may look for a live over. I think that

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Speaker 4: this is a situation where we may see a slow

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Speaker 4: start from soul Shar's men and then they bunker in

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Speaker 4: and try to defend and hit on the counter, and

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Speaker 4: then this game really opens up later on, so I'm

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Speaker 4: gonna probably not play it before the match, but look

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Speaker 4: to play it live.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and he's got so much talent coming off the bench.

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Speaker 1: That's the week.

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Speaker 3: This team is so weird that they could they You

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Speaker 3: can be watching two completely different games like we saw

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Speaker 3: against Adelanta, the first half and the second half for

131
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Speaker 3: completely different games.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on that. There is a Friday kickoff.

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Speaker 3: We always loved those three pm Eastern time featuring Arsenal

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Speaker 3: minus one ten at home against aston Villa plus three

135
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Speaker 3: hundred the draw plus two seventy. I was on Crystal

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Speaker 3: Palace on the money line against Arsenal this past Monday.

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Speaker 3: Of course, Arsenal would get the draw in the last

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Speaker 3: minute of that game. As soon as I came out

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Speaker 3: of the fetal position, which was in for a couple hours,

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Speaker 3: first thing I did was bet aston Villa at three

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Speaker 3: to one on the money line. It's simple as this.

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Speaker 3: Arsenal is a mid table side. Aston Villa they're also

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Speaker 3: a mid table side. I'll take the plus three hundred

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Speaker 3: b J.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I guess full to so we might as

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Speaker 2: well get this out there. Full disclosure. If you're listening

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Speaker 2: to us for the first time. I am an Arsenal fan.

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Speaker 2: Anthony is a Tottenham fan, so everything he says is

149
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Speaker 2: just drenched in bias, so you really shouldn't take it

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Speaker 2: for any type of value. But I mean, listen, I mean,

151
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Speaker 2: are titleble is not going well right now. I mean

152
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Speaker 2: they they weren't as bad as it seemed against Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 2: You know, they won unexpected goals two point one five,

154
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Speaker 2: two point five to nine. They didn't allow Palace to

155
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Speaker 2: register and shot with next year rating higher than point

156
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Speaker 2: one three. But it doesn't really look like kay Osaka

157
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Speaker 2: is going to play in this match, or he's the

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Speaker 2: least questionable to play. And I'd also like to say,

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Speaker 2: as an Armis fan, whoever made the Premier League schedule

160
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Speaker 2: should be fired for having us play on Monday and

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Speaker 2: then on Friday. But Astonville is dealing with some injury issues.

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Speaker 2: Bersch On Treiore is questionable or he's out, He's going

163
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Speaker 2: to miss this match. Mattie Cash and Leon Bailey are

164
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Speaker 2: both questionable. Arsenal's defense has not been good at all

165
00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:08,040
Speaker 2: fifteenth and non penalty XG nineteenth and passes perfect defensive

166
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Speaker 2: action fifteenth in box entries. But aston Villa's offense hasn't

167
00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:14,520
Speaker 2: been that great either. I mean they're sixteenth in non

168
00:08:14,560 --> 00:08:18,720
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals, eighteenth and big scoring chances, so it's

169
00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:20,960
Speaker 2: not just a given that Arsenal is going to concede

170
00:08:21,000 --> 00:08:23,920
Speaker 2: a bunch of high quality chances. So this is a

171
00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:26,360
Speaker 2: stay away for me as a fan. I really hope

172
00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:28,120
Speaker 2: they can just take all three points and make both

173
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,560
Speaker 2: you lose your bets, but right now it's no play

174
00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:31,800
Speaker 2: for me.

175
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:33,959
Speaker 3: I gets you alluded to it, Anthony, I think you're

176
00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,360
Speaker 3: going to be riding on Aston Villa with me for

177
00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:37,600
Speaker 3: this one. Yeah.

178
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,440
Speaker 4: I'll have a full preview in the Action Network app

179
00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,360
Speaker 4: and on the website so you can read on more

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00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,000
Speaker 4: on this match. But my projection makes Villa minus one

181
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 4: twenty five to get a point of that Arsenal plus

182
00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,040
Speaker 4: one twenty five take all three at home. So I

183
00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:52,439
Speaker 4: like anything minus one ten or better. The reality is

184
00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 4: that Arsenal scored or created a lot of chances off

185
00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,080
Speaker 4: of set pieces against Palace. That was how they got

186
00:08:57,160 --> 00:08:58,760
Speaker 4: most of their chances. So they got the goal that

187
00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:02,080
Speaker 4: you know, it was kind of a beat popping around

188
00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:04,400
Speaker 4: the box that led to a goal from Lacazette.

189
00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,800
Speaker 1: But they really weren't great from open play. They looked

190
00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:08,560
Speaker 1: very vulnerable.

191
00:09:08,800 --> 00:09:10,959
Speaker 4: The thing about Arsenal is they were very vulnerable to

192
00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,480
Speaker 4: direct attacks and counter attacks, which is exactly how they'll

193
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:15,760
Speaker 4: likes to play, especially on the road. They like to

194
00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:17,600
Speaker 4: get it up to Ings and up to Watkins up

195
00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:20,199
Speaker 4: there and try to play off of them as hold

196
00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,880
Speaker 4: up guys. The reality is that Arsenal also doesn't create

197
00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:26,120
Speaker 4: a lot of high quality chances. Their bottom half of

198
00:09:26,160 --> 00:09:29,080
Speaker 4: the league in average shot distance. The Villa defense doesn't

199
00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,480
Speaker 4: concede a ton of high quality chances there. Average shot

200
00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:34,760
Speaker 4: distance allowed is fourth lowest in the league. So that's

201
00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:36,520
Speaker 4: going to lead to a lot of periods of Arsenal

202
00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,160
Speaker 4: possession where they get a lot of low quality shots,

203
00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,200
Speaker 4: and with Amy Martinez is one of the better goalkeepers

204
00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:42,600
Speaker 4: in the Premier League, it's going to be very hard

205
00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:45,640
Speaker 4: to score on those lower quality shots. And Villa actually

206
00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,720
Speaker 4: creating a decent amount of high quality chances when they played,

207
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:51,400
Speaker 4: for example, Manchester United, who have had issues defensive transition.

208
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:53,400
Speaker 4: I think there's going to be similar issues for Arsenal

209
00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:55,959
Speaker 4: and dismatch, so I like Villa to get a point here.

210
00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,760
Speaker 4: Don't hate a look on the money line either. But

211
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:00,520
Speaker 4: I think that this is going to be another tight

212
00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,719
Speaker 4: match and a tricky one for Arsenal, and then we'll

213
00:10:02,760 --> 00:10:06,120
Speaker 4: move on to Saturday morning, seven thirty am. This one's

214
00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:06,640
Speaker 4: going to be fun.

215
00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:09,439
Speaker 3: Chelsea minus six hundred at home against Norwich at the

216
00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 3: foot of the table. They're fifteen to one on the

217
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,280
Speaker 3: money line. The draw is seven to one Norch. They

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Speaker 3: haven't been ahead in any of their eight games this season.

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Speaker 3: They only have two goals a minus fourteen goal differential.

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Speaker 3: Chelsea has not been that impressive lately. They looked good

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Speaker 3: against Malmo, but you know that's playing a Swedish team,

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Speaker 3: so I don't really think there's anything to look into that. However,

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Speaker 3: Ramululu Kaku came off injured in that game.

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Speaker 2: Chelsea.

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Speaker 3: As we've talked about in the Champions League preview we

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Speaker 3: did earlier this.

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Speaker 1: Week, Chelsea has looked a little bit vulnerable as of late.

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Speaker 3: I want to call it a wobble. This is still

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Speaker 3: a very good team. They're still at the top of

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Speaker 3: the Premier League. This is first against twentieth.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to do it.

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Speaker 3: I really wish I had the Colones two, but I

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Speaker 3: do like both teams to score here. Norch does deserve

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Speaker 3: a little bit offensive regression. They do have a couple

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Speaker 3: of finishers. I can't see them pulling a result out

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Speaker 3: of Stanford Bridge, but I do think that this Chelsea

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Speaker 3: defense can be beat, so I like both teams to score.

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Speaker 1: It's a plus one fifty five right now.

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Speaker 3: I think that's good enough to pray that Norwich is

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Speaker 3: able to get lucky and poke one pissed one of

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Speaker 3: the best goalies in the world right now, Edward Mendy Anthony,

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Speaker 3: what about you? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Bet?

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Speaker 4: Worst call from the Champions League was definitely Mamo over

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Speaker 4: half a goal plus two twenty Shore, which is a shop,

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Speaker 4: but never had a chance.

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Speaker 1: They had two shots point seven expected goals. Bad call.

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Speaker 4: But this week timo Verner and Remel Lucaku both getting injured.

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Speaker 4: Timo Verner looks like he's going to be out a

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Speaker 4: while Lukaku may not be, but he's definitely going to

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Speaker 4: be questionable on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Not not sure what the injury prognosis is.

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Speaker 4: We're recording on Wednesday night, but I think that that

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Speaker 4: really changes the calculus for this Chelsea attack, which was

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Speaker 4: already running quite a bit hot and over in their

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Speaker 4: expected goals numbers for the season Chelsea plus one point

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Speaker 4: eight expected goal difference plus thirteen actual goal difference. Anytime

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Speaker 4: you see a gap that big, you're going to look too,

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Speaker 4: you know, be a little skeptical of those numbers.

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Speaker 2: Per se.

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Speaker 4: Norwich is the worst team in the league. Like Michael said,

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Speaker 4: They're worse than pretty much any metric you can look at.

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Speaker 4: The line is still inflated though, with Chelsea at home here,

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Speaker 4: my numbers make the minus one point seven to eight.

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Speaker 4: Norwich has only scored two goals from six point four

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Speaker 4: expected as well. I'm not going to say Norwich is

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Speaker 4: going to keep this game competitive necessarily, but it's a

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Speaker 4: very chance.

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Speaker 1: It's a very decent chance.

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Speaker 4: It's a sleepy noon kickoff where Chelsea gets up a

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Speaker 4: goal and kind of sits on the lead here and

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Speaker 4: tries to protect it. Norwich may even get on the board.

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Speaker 4: Could be a two to one type game. I really

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Speaker 4: don't see Norwich losing this game by three goals with

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Speaker 4: Chelsea's attacking issues, and so I'm gonna just eat it

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Speaker 4: here and take Norwige plus two at minus one ten.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, not a fun one to sit back and watch

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Speaker 3: for sure. At seven thirty in the morning with your coffee.

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Speaker 3: Good lord, ever did this is a ten am kickoff.

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Speaker 3: They are minus one sixty five favorites at home against Watford.

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Speaker 3: Claudio Ranieri's Watford his debut with the Horne, and it's

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Speaker 3: to not go well. They lost fight nothing to Liverpool

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Speaker 3: last weekend their plus four seventy five they draw plus

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Speaker 3: three ten. The Tafies are dealing with a host of injuries.

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Speaker 3: Dominic Calvert, Lewin Abdulah decore both out, so Ralpa Benitez

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Speaker 3: does have some work to do with this team sheet.

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Speaker 3: But I still think that the Tafies are deserving of

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Speaker 3: this number right now, They're expected goals numbers are good.

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Speaker 3: This is a very well organized team. But Ranieri and

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Speaker 3: Ralpha Benitez both kind of has similar philosophies on how

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Speaker 3: to get results. They both like to ping on the counter.

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Speaker 3: Everton has more talent and more attacking talent in that way.

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Speaker 3: I mean, as Malasar great striker, but I still think

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Speaker 3: that the Tapies have enough to get it over. This

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Speaker 3: number is a little little too high for me. I

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Speaker 3: might look to play Everton on a minus one and

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Speaker 3: a half or even like minus two and a half

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Speaker 3: if if I want to just sit back and have

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Speaker 3: action on the game, because I'll be watching it as

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Speaker 3: an Everden fan.

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Speaker 1: But for right now, it's a pass for me, BJ.

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Speaker 1: What about you.

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Speaker 2: I actually do like Everton in this match. Like you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: they do have a couple of injury issues. Beber Charlson

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Speaker 2: will be back, it looks like for this match, which

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Speaker 2: would be a big boost to their offense and more,

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Speaker 2: It's gonna be kind of a bet against Watford, who

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Speaker 2: has looked really bad defensively. I mean they have a

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Speaker 2: lot of one point eight seven expected goals for match.

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Speaker 2: They're eighteenth in box entries allowed. But the biggest problem

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Speaker 2: for Watford in this match is they are horrible against pressure,

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Speaker 2: and we saw it last week when they faced off

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Speaker 2: against Liverpool. I mean Liverpool basically just whenever Watford got

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Speaker 2: the ball, Liverpool just took it away and ran right

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Speaker 2: down the field and scored. Watford is dead last and

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Speaker 2: offensive passes per defensive action they're eighteenth and pressure success

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Speaker 2: rate allowed. Everton is pressing quite a bit. They're eighth

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Speaker 2: in pressures and have the sixth best pressure success rates.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is a play on Everton at

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Speaker 2: minus one fifty because also Watford has not looked good

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Speaker 2: offensively in their last two matches. They haven't created over

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Speaker 2: one expected goal and in so I think going up

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Speaker 2: against a Neverton defense that's sixth in expected goals allowed

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Speaker 2: in seventh and big scoring chances allowed, I think it's

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Speaker 2: gonna be a really a big problem for Watford. You know,

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Speaker 2: I have Everton projected at minus to twelve. You know,

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Speaker 2: you bring that down a little bit for Dominque, Calvert

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Speaker 2: Lunn being out, but still I think there's some value

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Speaker 2: on Everton at Godison Park. You can find them below

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Speaker 2: minus one and sixty right now. There's a couple one

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Speaker 2: fifties out there. So Everton money line will be my

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Speaker 2: pick for this match.

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Speaker 3: Then we'll head south to the South Coast another ten

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Speaker 3: am kickoff on Saturday morning, Southampton minus one oh five

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Speaker 3: against Burnley, who are plus three hundred the draw sitting

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Speaker 3: at plus two fifty. I love Burnley in this match,

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00:15:31,920 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 3: I really do. This is another team that's due for

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Speaker 3: some offensive regression. Right Like they are more open than

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Speaker 3: we've ever seen them in an undershwan ditsche like they

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Speaker 3: are allowing chances, they are creating more, They're not putting

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Speaker 3: any away. Unfortunately, not saying they're a good team, but

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Speaker 3: at some point this offense is going to catch up

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Speaker 3: slightly to its expected goals numbers, so I think that

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Speaker 3: they can get the job done here.

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Speaker 1: The press of.

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Speaker 3: Ralph Hassen Hudle Southampton against the stoic four to four

347
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Speaker 3: to two off Sean Ditsche is Burnley is I mean,

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Speaker 3: that is a beautiful, beautiful soccer match to watch it.

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Speaker 3: It's something that is just not going to register with

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Speaker 3: a lot of people on these ten am kickoffs. But

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Speaker 3: if you wanted to watch a tactical two tactical opposites

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Speaker 3: go at it right now, and neither neither of whom

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Speaker 3: neither of whom are very good, this is the This

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Speaker 3: is the match to watch. I like Burnley plus three hundred.

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Speaker 3: I really think that they'll finally get their first win

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Speaker 3: of the season.

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Speaker 1: This is what they do every year.

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Speaker 3: The people start counting them out and then all of

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00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,840
Speaker 3: a sudden they rattle off a few strong results. So

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Speaker 3: give me the Claritz, give me Sean ditsch give me

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Speaker 3: plus three hundred on Burnley, Anthony, are you joining me

362
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Speaker 3: in this one?

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Speaker 4: Not quite, but I do think there's gonna be some

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Speaker 4: goals at both ends of the pitch over two and

365
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 4: a half goals actually my favorite bet of the weekend

366
00:16:46,080 --> 00:16:49,000
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. It's all about positive offensive regression

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Speaker 4: for both teams. Southampton a team I think all of

368
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Speaker 4: us were low on coming into the year, struggling to

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Speaker 4: create chances, even struggling even more to finish said chances.

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Speaker 4: The the latter tends to regress they have created or

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Speaker 4: they have the lowest XG to goal difference in the league,

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Speaker 4: so there's six goals behind what their expected goal numbers are.

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Speaker 4: They've had a lot of clear cut chances they've missed

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Speaker 4: so far this season.

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Speaker 1: Same thing can be said.

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Speaker 4: For Burnley, who are four and a half goals below

377
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Speaker 4: their expected goals numbers. So some real positive aggression coming

378
00:17:20,520 --> 00:17:22,680
Speaker 4: for both sides here. Only Norwich is worse in terms

379
00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 4: of underperformance by XG. Burnley also a team, as we

380
00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 4: know that loves to rely on crossing. Southampton not terrible

381
00:17:30,080 --> 00:17:32,399
Speaker 4: against crosses, but has conceded a lot of high quality

382
00:17:32,520 --> 00:17:35,160
Speaker 4: chances once they get through that Southampton press. Their defense

383
00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 4: has been extremely vulnerable, as most pressing teams are, and

384
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Speaker 4: they've created a lot of high quality chances or conceded

385
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Speaker 4: a lot of high quality chances. So I think there's

386
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Speaker 4: going to be chances at both ends of this match here.

387
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,440
Speaker 4: Any real magic that Burnley has defensively, which is something

388
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Speaker 4: that's kind of befuddled the analytics people for years, doesn't

389
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,200
Speaker 4: really seem to be there this year. They're just not

390
00:17:52,640 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 4: blocking as many shots. Nick Pope has not turns out

391
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Speaker 4: as not the best goalie in the world. The way

392
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Speaker 4: he was playing for a little while there made it

393
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Speaker 4: seem like he was, but he's kind of regressed back

394
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Speaker 4: to the mean and back to what his real talent

395
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Speaker 4: level is. So they're not quite overperforming defensively either. So

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be a high scoring game.

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Speaker 4: I've got two point six expected so I'm okay playing

398
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Speaker 4: two and a half at even.

399
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Speaker 2: I have a Burnley stat that's just maybe the most

400
00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 2: Burnly stat of all time. They have created more expected

401
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 2: goals off of corners this season than from.

402
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:25,440
Speaker 4: Open play, and Southampton's really struggled defensively on set pieces

403
00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,760
Speaker 4: as well. Manchester United created a bunch of chances off

404
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,840
Speaker 4: of set pieces, Leeds created almost nothing, but almost everything

405
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:32,479
Speaker 4: they did create came from set pieces.

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Speaker 1: Last week.

407
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Speaker 4: So definitely some set piece defensive issues for Southampton as well.

408
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Speaker 3: And that's why we love Burnley. I never I always

409
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 3: root for them to not be relegated because they're such

410
00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:42,399
Speaker 3: an outlier.

411
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Speaker 1: They're fun to have in the Premier League. I don't

412
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Speaker 1: care what anybody says.

413
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Speaker 3: Another ten am kickoff Leeds at home plus one forty

414
00:18:48,720 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 3: five favorites against Wolves plus one ninety five the draw

415
00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 3: plus two forty five Wolves four and four wins, four losses,

416
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:57,960
Speaker 3: eight goals for, eight goals against, but a plus three

417
00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 3: and a half expected goal differential bija this match. If

418
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:03,920
Speaker 3: this happened in like week one or week two, I

419
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 3: think we'd see a very different line. But these two

420
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Speaker 3: teams have trended in opposite directions to start this season, right.

421
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:13,720
Speaker 2: I think you dubbed our first YouTube show Leeds plays

422
00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:16,239
Speaker 2: cocaine ball, and that's just exactly what they do. I mean,

423
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 2: it's a full court press all the time, trying to

424
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Speaker 2: get five or six guys on the ball, trying to

425
00:19:21,320 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 2: get in go forward. Well that sounds great, but for

426
00:19:24,119 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 2: Marcelo Bielsa that leaves you really exposed at the back

427
00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,480
Speaker 2: and going up against a team like Wolves who has

428
00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:32,760
Speaker 2: looked really good on the attack. That's a big problem.

429
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,680
Speaker 2: I mean, Wolves is eighth in the Premier League and

430
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 2: non penalty expected goals shots per ninety they are top

431
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:43,359
Speaker 2: ten in big scoring chances, box entries and actually, like

432
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: you mentioned, they have the fourth best non penalty expected

433
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Speaker 2: goal de Frenchill have plus five point one six and

434
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,720
Speaker 2: the main reason for that it's because they've been one

435
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:51,640
Speaker 2: of the best defensive teams in the Premier League. They've

436
00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,680
Speaker 2: only allowed zero point eighty seven non penalty expected goals

437
00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:56,920
Speaker 2: per match, only ten point three shots per ninety that's

438
00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,840
Speaker 2: second to only Manchester City, and they've allowed only four

439
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,800
Speaker 2: big scoring chances. So it's an incredible defense paired with

440
00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: an offense that really can just break down Leeds defense

441
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 2: like that, especially with adamatra Ari going forward. So Leeds

442
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,879
Speaker 2: hasn't looked great defensively. Fourteen point eight expectacles allowed, second

443
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 2: most in the league this season, and also they've allowed

444
00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:21,200
Speaker 2: the most shots per ninety minutes, so it's a really

445
00:20:21,800 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 2: big mismatch I think. So I really don't think Wolves

446
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 2: should be underdogs in this one. I think that they

447
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:32,560
Speaker 2: should be able to get all three points or at

448
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,560
Speaker 2: the very least they should be able to get a

449
00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:37,280
Speaker 2: draw from this one, So give me their drawn no

450
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 2: bet line at plus one ten.

451
00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:39,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna be with you.

452
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:43,160
Speaker 3: I like the money line plus one ninety five with Wolves. Oh,

453
00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:47,280
Speaker 3: this is a team that is really good in transition

454
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 3: to because of players like Adam Montroori, and they have

455
00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:52,360
Speaker 3: a finisher in real him and as who Yeah, sure,

456
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,600
Speaker 3: he's still struggling to get back to the form he

457
00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 3: was at before he had a horrific skull injury, but

458
00:20:57,119 --> 00:20:58,760
Speaker 3: we can kind of give him an excuse for that.

459
00:20:58,880 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 1: But I still believe in him.

460
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 3: I believe in their midfield, and like you said, their

461
00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 3: defenses has been really impressive. And I think that's an

462
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:08,679
Speaker 3: interesting point that maybe we as handicappers and all sports

463
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,879
Speaker 3: kind of overlook is when there's a coaching change, so

464
00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 3: much attention is paid to the new coach that nobody

465
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,680
Speaker 3: really kind of works in what the old coach, maybe

466
00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:20,080
Speaker 3: the kind of characteristics of his coaching style, which is

467
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,280
Speaker 3: new to Spiritu Santo, who plays a much more compact

468
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:26,160
Speaker 3: style compared to his success at Bruno Lodge. So these

469
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:29,200
Speaker 3: and basically this roster has not changed that much. There's

470
00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 3: They've added a couple attacking players, but not too much

471
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 3: on the back end. So this is a team that

472
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 3: was defensively responsible already, and now they're learning to play

473
00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 3: a little bit more with a little bit more freedom

474
00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 3: while still being pretty compact defensively. I like Wolves plus

475
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 3: one ninety five. They should be able to get a

476
00:21:45,200 --> 00:21:48,040
Speaker 3: couple past this leads defense, which is leaking like a sieve,

477
00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:50,520
Speaker 3: and you have to wonder. I mean, they've they've been

478
00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 3: banged up all season. If they're the I don't want

479
00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 3: to say it because it's such a soccer cliche that

480
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:59,920
Speaker 3: Bielsa burnout is starting to rear its head for this team. Anthony,

481
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:01,639
Speaker 3: are you making a three for three elm Wolves?

482
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 4: I am in a different way. Team total over one

483
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 4: and a half plus one point forty. I agree one

484
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:09,879
Speaker 4: hundred percent on Bielsa burnout. I don't know how they

485
00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 4: did it last year. Every team in the league last

486
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,720
Speaker 4: year really struggled to cope with kind of the fixture congestion,

487
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 4: the fact there was no off season. After the players

488
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 4: came back after the COVID pandemic shut football down for

489
00:22:21,359 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 4: three months, everybody came back and like played a ton

490
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 4: and everybody was dead and Leads at the end of

491
00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 4: the season were flying, flying and had an incredible end

492
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 4: of the season. And year two regression for them has

493
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 4: been notable and every way. The defense is still just

494
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 4: as bad as it was last year. Their bottom three

495
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,239
Speaker 4: in a lot of defensive categories that we look at.

496
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 4: The offense just isn't producing quite as much. The team

497
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: they rolled out against Southampton, that was my worst call

498
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: of last weekend was Leads. That team they rolled out

499
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 4: against Southampton was so bad. I mean I had to

500
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,320
Speaker 4: go start looking up, like, you know, the histories on

501
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 4: some of these players, because of the guys you know they.

502
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 1: Had on that bench, some academy guys.

503
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 4: It was really bad and so Lead now may have

504
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 4: Bamford back, but they're still missing some guys defensively. Ailing

505
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:06,639
Speaker 4: is going to be out a while. Robin Cock may

506
00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,159
Speaker 4: be back, but probably not. They are going to get

507
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 4: Ruffinia back, which definitely helps their attacks. But I really

508
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:13,880
Speaker 4: think Wolves is gonna be able to get at this team.

509
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 4: I think Wolves has created a ton of chances and

510
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 4: not quite finished them, and what we've seen is that

511
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 4: that will regress. They had three goals and an incredible

512
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 4: comeback win against Villa A couple of lucky bounces for

513
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 4: sure went their way, but two of those goals were

514
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 4: pretty big chances they created through crossing and through cutbacks.

515
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 4: So this Bruno Las team is really good in space

516
00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 4: and there's going to be a lot of space when

517
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:35,840
Speaker 4: you play Leads, so I think there's going to be

518
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 4: two goals at least for Wolves.

519
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:39,159
Speaker 1: So I like over one and a half on the

520
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: team total, and.

521
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 3: That would I think that would make warn Zyvon happy.

522
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:45,960
Speaker 3: It's too bad that Leads isn't in London because I

523
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,200
Speaker 3: would love to be able to drop in the dun

524
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 3: Dun dun Du. Next Crystal Palace, another ten am kickoff

525
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 3: hosting Newcastle Palace minus one oh five Newcastle coming back

526
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 3: at plus two eighty to draw plus two sixty. Just

527
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 3: a wild couple of weeks for Newcastle, just absolute, like

528
00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 3: you can't make it up kind of a couple of weeks.

529
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 3: It's half Middle Eastern spy thriller, half you know, I

530
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 3: don't know, underdog story. Who knows what's going on with

531
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 3: this team? The Saudi Arabian takeover took place last week.

532
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: They get a goal two minutes in against Tottenham.

533
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,719
Speaker 1: It looks like a party next thing.

534
00:24:22,760 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 3: You know, three to one, Spurs are up, they end

535
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 3: up winning three to two, and this Newcastle team, it

536
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,680
Speaker 3: would be kind of hilarious if the Crown Prince of

537
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia buys them only to watch them get relegated.

538
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 3: But that's for another time.

539
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: I like to over in this game. Newcastle leads the league.

540
00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:42,960
Speaker 3: I guess you could say it in total goals per

541
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 3: match three point sixty three. Crystal Palace not too far

542
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:48,480
Speaker 3: behind them. I think they're in six. I really really

543
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 3: liked this Crystal Palace team, but minus one of five

544
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 3: is a little I'm asking a little bit too much

545
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,720
Speaker 3: of them for me right now. Connor Gallagher has been

546
00:24:56,760 --> 00:24:59,040
Speaker 3: a revelation in the midfield. Petroviira seems to have sorted

547
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 3: it out. The whole problem with this team forever was

548
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 3: that they relied so heavily on Wilfrid Zaha. But with

549
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 3: Gallagher and players like at least say like taking some

550
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 3: pressure off him Austin Edward, like all of a sudden,

551
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 3: Zaja doesn't have to carry this team on his own

552
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 3: and he gets a little bit of breathing room. Palace

553
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 3: has only lost two games this year, Liverpool and Chelsea.

554
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 3: Everything else they've been able to get a result from.

555
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: So I think that they're gonna score.

556
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:25,359
Speaker 3: They'll do the heavy lifting for this over, hopefully maybe

557
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,239
Speaker 3: two or three past the Newcastle defense, which has been

558
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,639
Speaker 3: leaky leaky. The only thing that does scare me, and

559
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 3: the reason I'm not betting the Palace money line is

560
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 3: that Newcastle did switch coaches. I am a little bit

561
00:25:36,840 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 3: afraid of the new manager bounce here, so I'm gonna

562
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 3: stay away from the money line and just back to

563
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 3: Over and hope that both teams can can get it done.

564
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 3: BJ do you see anything in this one?

565
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, Steve Bruce got sacked, resigned. I don't know if

566
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 2: he pulled doll. You can't fire me.

567
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 3: I quit all politics and Newcastle even firing their managers

568
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 3: handled right, Yeah, So.

569
00:26:00,840 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 2: I mean I'm gonna make a little bit of a

570
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:07,040
Speaker 2: case for Newcastle here. Listen, their defensive numbers are really

571
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 2: bad and there's really it's really hard to get behind

572
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 2: them with how bad they've been defensively. But Crystal Palace's

573
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,680
Speaker 2: offensive metrics haven't been that much better. I mean, they're

574
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,360
Speaker 2: only averaging point eight seven non penalty expected goals per match,

575
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,159
Speaker 2: only ten point seven to five shots per ninety eleven

576
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: point one three bucks entries per match and like I

577
00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 2: mentioned against Arsenal, they didn't register a shout with the

578
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 2: next year rating over point one five. And defensively they've

579
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:33,199
Speaker 2: been better than years past, you know, ninth in expected

580
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 2: goals allowed, fifth and big scoring chances allowed. But they're

581
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: not that great of a pressing team. And you know

582
00:26:39,560 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: they're fourteenth and passes per defense faction and pass and

583
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 2: pressure success rate in Newcastle is one of the worst

584
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,919
Speaker 2: teams against pressure. So I only have Crystal Palace projected

585
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 2: at plus one forty eight. You know, if you'll get

586
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 2: other projection sites like five thirty eight, they only have

587
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,320
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace at forty five percent. So I do like

588
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 2: Newcastle at plus half a goal at minus one ten

589
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 2: to get a result for new inter manager Graham Jones,

590
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: who still to this day holds a scoring record for

591
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 2: goals in a season for Wigan Athletic.

592
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 3: That is a beautiful piece of soccer trivia for you,

593
00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 3: courtesy of BJ Cunningham. All right, let's move on twelve

594
00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,919
Speaker 3: thirty pm kickoff Brighton plus six fifty home underdogs against

595
00:27:17,960 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: Manchester City coming back at minus two forty five to

596
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: draw off four to one. City just pants Club Bruges

597
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 3: in the Champions League. They look like they're firing and

598
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: all cylinders, but we see them kind of have hiccups

599
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 3: during the season against teams like Brighton. They just had

600
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 3: wing at Southampton BJ. Do you think that this is

601
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 3: another potential banana skin for Manchester City?

602
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,199
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, they're playing our Brighton Seagulls. If you're new

603
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:44,240
Speaker 2: to our podcast, we're big fans of Brighton On. Here

604
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 2: where the expected goals kings of the Premier League last season.

605
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I don't have to mention it,

606
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 2: but you know, fifth best expected goal to evental but

607
00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 2: finished in sixteenth place. But you know this season their

608
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 2: offensive numbers have really regressed. They're not creating much going forward,

609
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 2: but their defense is still there and it's actually just

610
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 2: as good. Despite selling Ben White to Arsenal, Brighton's third

611
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:06,200
Speaker 2: in the Premier Premier Leagugain non penalty expected goals allowed

612
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,879
Speaker 2: at point nine to one their fifth and shots allowed

613
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: per ninety their third and big scoring chances allowed. They

614
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 2: have played an easy schedule, but you know, you can

615
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 2: only play the teams that are in front of you.

616
00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 2: But what makes Brighton's defense so good as they're pressing.

617
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 2: They have the third most pressures in the Premier League

618
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 2: and they have the number one pressure success rate. But

619
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 2: they are so are going up against the best team

620
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 2: in the Premier League against pressure, which is Manchester City.

621
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 2: You know, and you know, like I mentioned, the Brighton

622
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 2: offense hasn't been that great at all. You know, They've

623
00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 2: only created five big scoring chances thirteenth and shots per ninety.

624
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,360
Speaker 2: But they're all going to have a lot of difficulty

625
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,480
Speaker 2: scoring against Manchester United or Manchester City's defense that is

626
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: one of the best in the world and only allowed

627
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,479
Speaker 2: four point seven one non penalty expected goals in eight matches.

628
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 2: But even though the City offense has been prolific, I

629
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: do think Brighton is organized disciplined enough to hold them

630
00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 2: in check and keep this match from getting out of hands. Also,

631
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 2: both these teams play really slow in their build up play.

632
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 2: I only have two point two one goals projective for

633
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 2: this match, so I'm going to take a shot at

634
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 2: under two and a half goals at even money and

635
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 2: hope that City doesn't turn this into a route.

636
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 3: Yeah.

637
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you.

638
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:12,920
Speaker 3: This game feels like a big ten football match.

639
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: It's just going to be too key.

640
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, two beautiful defenses going at it. Like you said,

641
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 3: City is the best, maybe the best defense in the world.

642
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 3: Bright and fourth in the Premier League. According to understats

643
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: Expected goal model. Betting a City under is never fun

644
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: because they can score four goals in eight minutes. But

645
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: I'll be on it, Anthony, what about you?

646
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely lean to the under. I'll decide on

647
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: Saturday if I'm going to end up on it. These

648
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 1: two teams played twice last year.

649
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 4: The one game was the end of the season, so

650
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 4: you can't really read much into it because City had

651
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 4: already clinched the title and there was a tenth minute

652
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 4: red card when they played early in the year. Brighton

653
00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 4: really struggled to get through the City press, which.

654
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 1: Was unusual for them.

655
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 4: They were on the road, to be fair, but Brighton

656
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 4: allowed two point six expected goals. They really You know,

657
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,320
Speaker 4: of all the teams that I like to back Brighton

658
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 4: against City is probably the one I don't help. Guardiola

659
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 4: has sung the praises of Graham Potter in the past,

660
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 4: but I think this is probably gonna up being a

661
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 4: stay away lean towards the under two and a half.

662
00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,000
Speaker 4: Like Bja mentioned, the offensive regression this year for Brighton.

663
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 4: It's not that they're in the XG department, it's regression.

664
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 4: It's just the fact that they're forwards. Last year, guys

665
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 4: who you don't really expect to have all these great

666
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 4: shot numbers all of a sudden started putting up really

667
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,400
Speaker 4: great shot numbers and it has not sustained this season.

668
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 4: Neil Malpey has actually improved a little bit, but everybody

669
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 4: else other than him has regressed. And that's where most

670
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 4: of the Brighton You know, their offense is not as

671
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:37,880
Speaker 4: good as last year. They're done almost a quarter goal

672
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 4: and expected per match, so not a ton of faith

673
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 4: in them to even get on the board here. And

674
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 4: like you mentioned, Cities attack can go off at any time.

675
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 4: But you know, the question is is the Brighton defense legitimate.

676
00:30:50,960 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 4: I don't think they've really been tested, so it's probably

677
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: gonna up being a stay away, but I lean towards

678
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 4: the uner two and a half.

679
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 3: All right, we'll flip the page to Sunday morning. The

680
00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: nine am kickoff a London Derby west Ham plus one

681
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 3: forty five home favorites Tottenham coming back plus one ninety five.

682
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 3: The draw plus two forty five. These two teams, they're

683
00:31:07,480 --> 00:31:11,120
Speaker 3: separated by one point in the standings, but spurs a

684
00:31:11,240 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 3: minus three gold differential. West Ham at plus five. David

685
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: Moyes has just done such a spectacular job with the Hammers.

686
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 3: It's he deserves Manager of the Year, and just because

687
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 3: of the way he's been treated by the soccer media forever,

688
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 3: like he was just made fun of for the job

689
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,360
Speaker 3: he took it when he took this job back after

690
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 3: having some trouble with with other clubs, like we also

691
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 3: see your dad in Sunderland and west Ham in his

692
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: first stint, but he's he's learned to adapt and he's

693
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 3: done such a good job.

694
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: I like west Ham plus one forty five.

695
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 3: There's an eight and a half goal differential in these teams,

696
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 3: expect a gold differential. I think that's enough to take

697
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 3: a shot on the Hammers at a number like this.

698
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 3: I kind of like if you are betting, like something

699
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 3: the college football on Saturday, or excuse me, in the

700
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 3: NFL on Sunday, if you have like another team you're

701
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: building around Robin, I like the number on this plus

702
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 3: one forty five to maybe as a sprinkle and if

703
00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 3: you're having trouble to figure out maybe the last like

704
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 3: of year round robin for Sunday BJ.

705
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: What about you?

706
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:10,880
Speaker 2: In total agreement, I think this west Ham's really undervalued

707
00:32:10,920 --> 00:32:12,440
Speaker 2: in the spot. It's a mixture of two things. First,

708
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 2: their offense hasn't been great. I mean, Mikhaal Antonio has

709
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 2: been awesome up front five goals, already has a point

710
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,760
Speaker 2: e three expectable per ninety minute scoring rate. West Ham's

711
00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 2: top five in non penalty expectables per match, big scoring chances,

712
00:32:25,280 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: box entries. And they're also one of the best teams

713
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 2: against pressure well, which is good because Tottenham, although they

714
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,000
Speaker 2: press a ton, they're sixth and pressures they only have

715
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:36,960
Speaker 2: the eighteenth best pressure success rate. So west Ham should

716
00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:39,280
Speaker 2: be able to just breeze right through their defense. And

717
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 2: if you're going against west Ham you have to have

718
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 2: a really good midfield because Declan Rice and Toma Schoichek

719
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: will just boss you the entire match. And I don't

720
00:32:47,680 --> 00:32:50,480
Speaker 2: know if Todham really has that to go up against

721
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 2: those two guys. And you know, yeah, Todam has this

722
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,080
Speaker 2: guy named Harry Kane and this other guy named young

723
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 2: Men's Son. But they are sixteenth and shots per ninety

724
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 2: fifteenth and non penalty expected goals for match sixteenth and

725
00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:06,000
Speaker 2: big scoring chances twelfth in box entries. This is not

726
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: a good offense and they're not that great against pressure either,

727
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: and west Ham has the second best pressure success rate,

728
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 2: so you know, both these teams are gonna be playing

729
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 2: in Europe on Thursday. West Ham is at home. Tottenham

730
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 2: has to travel to the Netherlands, so it's been a

731
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 2: lot of travel for Spurs, so had to travel all

732
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 2: the way up to Newcastle, then back to London, then

733
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 2: over to the Netherlands. So yes, I'm in totally agreement

734
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 2: with you, Michael. I have west Ham projected at minus

735
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 2: one oh seven, so I love their drawn no bet

736
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,280
Speaker 2: line at minus one thirty.

737
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 3: Anthony, I know you're a Spurs fan, so I'll let

738
00:33:35,680 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: you get in thirty seconds of what you see in

739
00:33:38,920 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 3: this match.

740
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:42,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I definitely probably would lean towards west Ham. I

741
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 4: think the number is about right. West Ham and Tottenham

742
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 4: are pretty comparable teams. West Ham maybe slightly better based

743
00:33:47,840 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 4: on the numbers, but you know, and at home. But

744
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:52,400
Speaker 4: I'm not laying minus one thirty on their drawn no

745
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 4: bet line Tottenham. There are a lot of concerns about

746
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 4: a lot of their numbers, but I've seen improvement in

747
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 4: the last two weeks. They started playing Tangy and Dumble

748
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 4: more and playing him more in a ball progressor role.

749
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 4: Him kind of running the show offensively has made for

750
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,360
Speaker 4: an uptick in numbers. West Ham playing more like a

751
00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: true top five to sixteen this year than they were

752
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 4: last year. Last year much more of a counter attacking

753
00:34:14,600 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 4: type team where Soychuk was getting forward.

754
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: A lot more.

755
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 4: This year they're actually you know, have the box entry

756
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 4: numbers and the ball progression numbers. Is just they're actually

757
00:34:23,160 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 4: possessing the ball more too, which might play into the

758
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,839
Speaker 4: Tottenham hands here where Tottenham will be happy to sit

759
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 4: back and counter. But overall, I'm gonna sit and pass

760
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 4: on this match, you know. I'm sure we'll have the

761
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 4: same song of nance about Tottenham about a dozen times

762
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 4: in the next.

763
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 2: Few weeks, I hope.

764
00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 1: So they're not very good. I'm not a new no

765
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 1: a spirito Santo guy, but here I think the numbers

766
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 1: about right.

767
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 2: No, don't agree.

768
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 3: I heard not described once as a sad Jedi. He

769
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 3: does look incredibly wise and he seems like just that.

770
00:34:51,800 --> 00:34:52,560
Speaker 1: Yes, terrific.

771
00:34:53,040 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 2: It's the beard for him.

772
00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 3: I think he's got a great look, handsome dude as

773
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 3: the David Moyes Coach of the year.

774
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 4: Talk is extremely disrespectful to Thomas Frank of Brentford just putting.

775
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: So let's get to Brentford.

776
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 3: They're plus one seventy against at home against Lester, also

777
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: plus one seventy the draw plus two thirty. This is

778
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 3: the other nine am Sunday kickoff. Lester looked good against

779
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:17,839
Speaker 3: Manchester United this weekend. The three of us have kind

780
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 3: of been against them all season, waiting for maybe their

781
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 3: results to kind of plummet. I'm going to go back

782
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 3: to fading them again this week, though. I'm in love

783
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: with just betting this Brentford team. They treated me right

784
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 3: once and they haven't really treated me right since they

785
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 3: keep losing on last second draws, on the money line

786
00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 3: or whatever whatever.

787
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,279
Speaker 1: I'll go back to the bas plus one seventy. I

788
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: like the matchup.

789
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 3: Lester struggles defensively. They are a team that is their

790
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:47,600
Speaker 3: strength is their offense. Brentford's defense is still holding up.

791
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,240
Speaker 3: I'll trust that defense to be able to handle Jamie

792
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 3: Vardi in company. And then conversely, i'man Tony and at Buemo. Like,

793
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 3: that's a great, great strike force against a really, really

794
00:35:57,480 --> 00:36:00,800
Speaker 3: susceptible defense. So I think Brentford can can pull a

795
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 3: job here. Plus one seventy I think is a good

796
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 3: number at home on Sunday morning.

797
00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: BJ, What about you.

798
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 2: I don't want to do this, but I gotta throw

799
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,759
Speaker 2: some cold water on Brentford right now. I mean, yeah,

800
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,960
Speaker 2: they're fifth and expected goal differential, Yes, they should have

801
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:18,760
Speaker 2: beaten Chelsea last week, but their offense is just entirely

802
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 2: built on creating big chances. You know, they're averaging one

803
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 2: point five eight expected goals for match, which is what

804
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 2: they They have the fifth most big scoring chances, but

805
00:36:27,200 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: they're only allowing them. Are They're only averaging eleven shots

806
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,959
Speaker 2: per ninety minutes, which is sixteenth in the Premier League,

807
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 2: nine point seventy five box entries per match, which is eighteenth.

808
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 2: And now Lester's defense hasn't been great so far, but

809
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,720
Speaker 2: they are tied with Wolves for the fewest big scoring

810
00:36:40,800 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: chances allowed. And Brentford is also the most pressured team

811
00:36:44,280 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 2: in the Premier League and they're allowing the highest pressure

812
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 2: success rate. And like I already mentioned, Lester had the

813
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 2: most pressures of anybody in a Premier League match this

814
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 2: season last weekend against Manchester United, and I do think

815
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:57,319
Speaker 2: Lester has kind of turned a corner, especially offensively. They

816
00:36:57,400 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 2: torched Manchester United three point one expected goals. They have

817
00:37:00,320 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: a ton of depth at the striker position, and they're

818
00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:05,320
Speaker 2: not just completely reliant on Jamie Vardi colecchian Accho and

819
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,120
Speaker 2: Pats and Daka are two really talented strikers. In fact,

820
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 2: Daca just scored four goals against Spartak Moscow on Wednesday

821
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 2: in the Europa League, and that's the Spartak Moscow defense

822
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: that's only allowing point six expected goals for match in

823
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: the Russian Premier League. So I do think they're able

824
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:20,799
Speaker 2: to be able to create a lot of chances now

825
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,600
Speaker 2: that they are actually finally fully healthy for the first time.

826
00:37:23,600 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 2: They've been dealing with a ton of entries early on

827
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:29,160
Speaker 2: this season. I have Lesser projected at plus one thirty nine,

828
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:31,359
Speaker 2: So I think there's some value right now in their

829
00:37:31,480 --> 00:37:33,480
Speaker 2: drawing up bet line at minus one oh five.

830
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really I don't feel that great about this bet,

831
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:41,280
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, just less their performance against Man's Manchester

832
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 3: United last week it did as you said, did seem

833
00:37:43,400 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 3: like a kind of season changer a little bit. They

834
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 3: did look really good, basically in all three phases of

835
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 3: the game. Anthony, how do you see this one shaking out? GI?

836
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 1: Give me the over again? Look Lester overs.

837
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 4: Early in the season, they were bad. The market was

838
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 4: overvaluing them quite a bit. I think we all cash

839
00:37:59,160 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 4: tickets against them, But the market hasn't really cut up

840
00:38:02,239 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 4: caught up to their improved attack.

841
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 1: BJ mentioned it.

842
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 4: They've scored or created a lot more chances their last

843
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,840
Speaker 4: five matches if you cut their season into two, the

844
00:38:09,920 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 4: first five matches, including one game against Napoli in the

845
00:38:12,239 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 4: Europa League.

846
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:16,320
Speaker 1: Really concerning scarily bad underlying numbers.

847
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 4: They were one of the worst teams in shot creating

848
00:38:18,280 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 4: actions and shots and in progressive passes.

849
00:38:21,480 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: They they had nothing.

850
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 4: But they're starting to get there. They're getting there in

851
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,960
Speaker 4: the last five matches, including a Europa League game and

852
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 4: now two Europa League games with the win today.

853
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:31,840
Speaker 1: They're starting to turn the corner.

854
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 4: And I agree with BJ that the offense there was

855
00:38:35,080 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 4: always way too much talent for them to stay this

856
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 4: bad offensively, but defensively, there's still major concerns about Lester,

857
00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:44,279
Speaker 4: who as bj mentioned hasn't conceded a ton of big

858
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,719
Speaker 4: scoring chances, but the other underlying numbers are kind of

859
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 4: concerning with the fact they're not offering a ton of

860
00:38:49,239 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 4: resistance in defensive transition, which is where Brentford will thrive.

861
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,320
Speaker 4: I mean, Brentford, you mentioned their numbers not great in

862
00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:58,200
Speaker 4: terms of box entries. That's because they're extremely efficient. They

863
00:38:58,280 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 4: get a lot of counters and Boeimu and Tony are

864
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,080
Speaker 4: very good at combining and creating high quality chances.

865
00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:05,120
Speaker 1: That's what Brentford's done all year. That's what I expect

866
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 1: them to continue to do here.

867
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 4: I think it's gonna be a wide open game where

868
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,960
Speaker 4: both teams are kind of vulnerable defensively in certain spots,

869
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 4: and I think it's gonna be a lot of back

870
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 4: and forth transition here.

871
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 1: So with Brnford at home, I.

872
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 4: Think there's going to be an inspired effort over two

873
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 4: and a half goals as even money.

874
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 3: I like that too, And that wraps up the Premier

875
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 3: League portion.

876
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:23,560
Speaker 2: Of our show.

877
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: So we will move on to Europe proper.

878
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 3: Perhaps outside of Liverpool Man United, which is one of

879
00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 3: the great rivalries in sports, is El Classico probably the

880
00:39:34,520 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 3: co headliner for this weekend. It's not your dad's Graham,

881
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 3: it's not your dad's ELK Classico will say that with

882
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 3: the way that Barcelona kind of struggle this year, but

883
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:46,640
Speaker 3: they are plus one seventy at home Real Madrid plus

884
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: one sixty that draw plus two to fifty five. This

885
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: is a ten am kickoff on Sunday. Just because I'm

886
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:53,439
Speaker 3: going to be watching this game, this is I'm probably

887
00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 3: going to be betting Real Madrid. I think the numbers

888
00:39:55,080 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 3: good enough to once again go against Barcelona. They did

889
00:39:57,520 --> 00:40:00,839
Speaker 3: look good better, I guess in the the Champions League

890
00:40:00,880 --> 00:40:04,720
Speaker 3: on Wednesday, in a one zero win against dinam O Kiev,

891
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:05,040
Speaker 3: so not.

892
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 1: Really a giant killing.

893
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 3: But I don't know, I don't I would be a

894
00:40:09,760 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 3: small bet for fun bet. I want action on the game.

895
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,319
Speaker 3: I want action on L Classico. It's hard to stop

896
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,399
Speaker 3: Kareem Benzima, So plus one sixty for me on Real

897
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:19,239
Speaker 3: Madrid BJ.

898
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:19,800
Speaker 1: What about you.

899
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:21,880
Speaker 2: I'm going to make a case for Barcelona. Yeah, they

900
00:40:21,920 --> 00:40:25,520
Speaker 2: haven't looked great at all. You know, their offensive numbers

901
00:40:25,600 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 2: have dipped quite a bit since Leonnel Messi has left.

902
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,680
Speaker 2: They're down twenty two percent non penalty expected goals. But defensively,

903
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,440
Speaker 2: Barcelona has been really good. I mean in the Champions

904
00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 2: League Matchgiins dinam o'kief, I mean they're not a great offense,

905
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 2: but they only allow them to register point one expected

906
00:40:38,480 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 2: goals total for the match, and this season in La

907
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 2: Liga they're only allowing point eight nine non penalty expected

908
00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 2: goals for match and have allowed the third fewest shock

909
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: crating actions and the fewest touches in their own final third.

910
00:40:48,600 --> 00:40:50,640
Speaker 2: Now they will be without Pedri for this match, but

911
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 2: I mean Barcelona, I think they are improving and they're

912
00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 2: running into a Real Madrid side that's been running incredibly

913
00:40:56,360 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 2: hot and lucky offensively twenty two goals off fifteen point

914
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 2: one seven expected goals and this is by far the

915
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 2: best defense that they've played all season long, and their

916
00:41:04,080 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 2: law of league schedule has been relatively easy. They haven't

917
00:41:06,840 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: faced Athletico Rial, Soocidad or Sevilla, and Real Madrid defensively

918
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:16,000
Speaker 2: hasn't been a juggernaut either, by their seventeenth and non

919
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals allowed tenth and being scoring chances to

920
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,880
Speaker 2: allow thirteenth and pressure success rates. So I have Barcelona

921
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 2: projected at plus one thirty three and I do think

922
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:27,000
Speaker 2: there's a little value in their drawn a bet line

923
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 2: at plus one oh five. I do think, like Anthony

924
00:41:29,239 --> 00:41:32,520
Speaker 2: mentioned our Champions League pod, Barcelona hasn't hit the basement yet.

925
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: They definitely could, but they haven't got there yet, and

926
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 2: I do think they're maybe starting to turn a little

927
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 2: bit of a corner. I know Anthony also mentioned that

928
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:41,359
Speaker 2: in the Champions League pod, but I think this might

929
00:41:41,400 --> 00:41:44,360
Speaker 2: be the match where they maybe finally turn that corner

930
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:48,600
Speaker 2: and maybe get all three points against their hated rival.

931
00:41:49,040 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 1: It would be quite the match for them to do it. Anthony,

932
00:41:51,760 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: what do you see on this one?

933
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,760
Speaker 4: You know, I really want to get behind Barcelona again,

934
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 4: but I can't hear big game Barcelona.

935
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 1: It's become like a running thing here where.

936
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,640
Speaker 4: Look, Barcelona looks good when they play teams that they're

937
00:42:04,640 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 4: able to boss, don't have a ton of ability and transition,

938
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 4: that aren't able to really break through their.

939
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 1: Press and possessed kind of style.

940
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 4: This Barcelona team when they went to ADLETI, I mean,

941
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,720
Speaker 4: it was one of the most shocking defensive transition performances

942
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 4: I've ever seen. I mean, at LETI would stringing together

943
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 4: two passes and they were in the penalty area with

944
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 4: a clear cut chance to score, and so Barcelona will

945
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 4: probably have the ball here, They'll probably be expected to

946
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,160
Speaker 4: have the ball being the home team here, and Real

947
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 4: Madrid will probably look to counter a little bit. I

948
00:42:32,960 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 4: just really don't have enough faith in Barcelona in that

949
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 4: spot against another team who's a very capable counterattacking side.

950
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 1: So I'm going to pass.

951
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 4: But I agree with PJ and directionally in the fact

952
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:47,279
Speaker 4: that I think Barcelona is improving. They've got too much

953
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,680
Speaker 4: young talent to stay as bad as I think. The

954
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 4: narrative has gotten on them because they've looked so bad

955
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 4: in the big games. They've looked terrible against PSG last year,

956
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,640
Speaker 4: they got crushed in both out Classico's last year. They

957
00:42:57,800 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 4: didn't look good against Atletia a couple weeks ago. So

958
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 4: every time the spotlight's been on Barsa they have not

959
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,120
Speaker 4: been good. And the reason for that, I think is

960
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 4: just that they're very vulnerable in defensive transition.

961
00:43:07,280 --> 00:43:07,959
Speaker 1: So I'm going to pass.

962
00:43:08,400 --> 00:43:10,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, Kareem Benzima might be part of the reason that

963
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 3: they're over performing. They're expected goals he doesn't miss, so.

964
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: Neither is Venetias Junior.

965
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:18,879
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah, right, now a scoring goals for fun now,

966
00:43:19,160 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 4: which is not good for people who bet under in

967
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 4: the Champions League game one team.

968
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think this is also the first time

969
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 2: that camp new will be at full capacity since the pandemic,

970
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:29,720
Speaker 2: so it'll be a good atmosphere on Sunday.

971
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 1: Yes, definitely.

972
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 3: I want to watch after West Ham puts it away

973
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 3: against Tottenham in the first half. After that, like fayhing

974
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:35,959
Speaker 3: or something.

975
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 4: What about the restauram first half team anyway? We're a

976
00:43:38,640 --> 00:43:40,120
Speaker 4: first half team anyway.

977
00:43:40,920 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 3: So what about the rest of Aliga BJ, what's your

978
00:43:44,120 --> 00:43:44,959
Speaker 3: favorite bet if.

979
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: You got one in Spain's top flight?

980
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like my mark up plus half a goal

981
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,120
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty. They're facing off against Valencia, who

982
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,240
Speaker 2: I don't think should be this big of a favorite.

983
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 2: I mean, offensively, they're only averaging point nine nine or

984
00:43:57,160 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 2: point nine to eight non penalty expected goals for match

985
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,720
Speaker 2: eleven eleventh and shots for ninety eleventh in box entries.

986
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 3: You know.

987
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 2: My Orca, on the other hand, has run into some

988
00:44:04,880 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 2: horrible luck. If you go through the results, you'll see

989
00:44:07,560 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 2: a six to one loss to Real Madrid. They only

990
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,879
Speaker 2: allowed two point three to seven expected goals in that match,

991
00:44:12,320 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 2: A two to three loss at home to Osasuna. They

992
00:44:15,120 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 2: won the expected goals battle four point zero three to

993
00:44:17,280 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 2: one point three to three, and they even played Real

994
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: Sociate that had tough on the weekend, lost one nothing,

995
00:44:21,680 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 2: but the expected goals battle was only point four nine

996
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 2: to zero point four to three. And you know, Valencia

997
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: last season had one of the worst expected goal of

998
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 2: differentials in La Liga, so I'm not really convinced that

999
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,760
Speaker 2: they've turned a corner. And I only have Valencia projected

1000
00:44:34,800 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: at plus one twelve. You know, if you look at

1001
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:38,840
Speaker 2: five thirty eight, they only have them at fifty one percent.

1002
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 2: So I do like my orka plus half a goal

1003
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:41,759
Speaker 2: at plus one twenty.

1004
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: Anthony, what's your favorite bet in La Legua this weekend?

1005
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 1: I know we're on the same side here. It's our

1006
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 1: Socia DoD boys.

1007
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 4: We hype them up a little bit on our preseason

1008
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 4: pod when we talked about kind of how to get

1009
00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 4: at this this Spain situation where Real Madrid is not

1010
00:44:57,520 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 4: as good as they've been, Barcelona is not as good

1011
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 4: as as they've been. Obviously losing Messi and ed Letti.

1012
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 4: We know got very lucky and fortunate to win the

1013
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 4: league last year. How about sociodod Why not us, right,

1014
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: they are second in the league maybe third now in

1015
00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 4: expect a goal difference plus point six y two. That

1016
00:45:14,040 --> 00:45:16,040
Speaker 4: includes a game against Barcelona in the first match where

1017
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 4: they got absolutely destroyed. So since that they've been even better.

1018
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 4: Atletico Madrid continues to be me you know, in terms

1019
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 4: of print the goals and look, we expect Diego Simone

1020
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:27,160
Speaker 4: team to overperform.

1021
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: That's just what they always do.

1022
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 4: They have plus finishers on offense and they have one

1023
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 4: of the best goalies in the world. I'd argue the

1024
00:45:33,840 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 4: best goal in the world and Yon oblock defensively, but

1025
00:45:37,040 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 4: still overvalued here at home. So I'll take a shot

1026
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,680
Speaker 4: plus a half Rialso Siadad plus one twenty. I think

1027
00:45:42,719 --> 00:45:46,000
Speaker 4: Sociodad is undervalued. They have some really good, fun young

1028
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:49,279
Speaker 4: attackers that we happen to like on this podcast. Alexander Esak,

1029
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,600
Speaker 4: who's the official striker of this podcast, I believe, and

1030
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,759
Speaker 4: so he's really taking the step forward this year in

1031
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 4: terms of his not only his shot numbers, but his

1032
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,400
Speaker 4: chance creation and kind of facilitating the attack. Is very

1033
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,680
Speaker 4: good at that, very good at the ball at his feet,

1034
00:46:03,880 --> 00:46:06,120
Speaker 4: so I think he can create chances against this a

1035
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 4: lety team, especially in transition. So I like Socidad to

1036
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:11,960
Speaker 4: get a point or more here.

1037
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:14,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like soci Dad on the money line plus

1038
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:16,440
Speaker 3: four twenty five obviously at Letti.

1039
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:18,400
Speaker 1: This week just head love box.

1040
00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a kind of like a flat spot

1041
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,160
Speaker 3: for them after a highly emotional game against Liverpool over

1042
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 3: on Tuesday in Champions League. All right, let's move on

1043
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:31,839
Speaker 3: to Germany Bundesliga. My favorite bet is Dortmund minus one

1044
00:46:31,880 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 3: and a half goals against bael Field. It's at plus

1045
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 3: one hundred right now. Dortmund, we know, great offense, bad defense,

1046
00:46:38,200 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 3: bl Field terrible, terrible offense, can't really take advantage of

1047
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:44,719
Speaker 3: the black and yellows biggest weakness. So I think, don't

1048
00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 3: even overthink this one. Lay the minus one and a

1049
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 3: half with Earling Holland and Dortmund BJ.

1050
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:50,839
Speaker 1: What do you got?

1051
00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Colonne plus half a goal minus

1052
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,160
Speaker 2: one twenty five against Leverkusen. Colonne offensively has actually been

1053
00:46:57,160 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 2: pretty good in the Bundesliga. One point four to three

1054
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,720
Speaker 2: expected goals per match, fourth, most shots per ninety minutes,

1055
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: fourth most box entries, fifth, most scoring, big scoring chances,

1056
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 2: and the last time they were on the field, they

1057
00:47:08,520 --> 00:47:11,840
Speaker 2: didn't look good. They got destroyed five nothing by Hoffenheim.

1058
00:47:12,400 --> 00:47:15,759
Speaker 2: But their defense, while it hasn't been that great, it's

1059
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 2: pretty much all due to the fact that they just

1060
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 2: allow one or two big scoring chances to match because

1061
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 2: they're only allowing the seventh most shots per ninety minutes

1062
00:47:24,120 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 2: and fifth most box centries and they have the third

1063
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 2: best pressure success. Right, they're going to get to a

1064
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 2: lever Couson team that's been incredibly lucky. Offensively, they've scored

1065
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:35,840
Speaker 2: twenty one goals off of twelve point zero seven expected goals.

1066
00:47:35,960 --> 00:47:38,640
Speaker 2: They are thirteenth in shots per ninety ninth and big

1067
00:47:38,719 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 2: scoring chances, fifteenth in box centries. This is not a

1068
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,640
Speaker 2: good offense. It's just been incredibly lucky. I mean, they

1069
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:46,480
Speaker 2: have my guy Patrick Schick, who's my official striker of

1070
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 2: the podcast, and he has a point seven to eight

1071
00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 2: expected gole per minty minute scoring rate. But outside him,

1072
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 2: nobody's really creating anything for lever Cousen. And defensively they've

1073
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 2: been they've been pretty shaky, one point five to four

1074
00:47:56,760 --> 00:48:00,399
Speaker 2: expected goals allowed. They're traveling on Thursday to go play

1075
00:48:00,440 --> 00:48:04,279
Speaker 2: Europa League match against Real Bettis so gonna have some

1076
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:07,280
Speaker 2: jet lag or maybe some tired legs there on Sunday.

1077
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:09,799
Speaker 2: So yeah, give me Colon plus half a goal at

1078
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:12,399
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five, Anthony, where are you going?

1079
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 1: The Bach is back?

1080
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:20,600
Speaker 4: Look glad Bach money line even money right now like

1081
00:48:20,680 --> 00:48:22,839
Speaker 4: anything plus, I probably play it to minus one ten.

1082
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 4: They're trending up significantly in attack. They're into the top

1083
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:29,080
Speaker 4: four in expected goal difference now there difference in the

1084
00:48:29,120 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 4: last few matches one point five against Dortmund, three point

1085
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 4: one expected goals against Wolfsburg, two point six against Stuttgart.

1086
00:48:35,200 --> 00:48:39,040
Speaker 4: The difference the return of braille En Below, the other

1087
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:43,440
Speaker 4: official striker of the podcast, braill Enblow, has been incredible.

1088
00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:44,880
Speaker 1: He is just awesome.

1089
00:48:44,960 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 4: He led the Euros an expected threat, which is basically

1090
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:51,920
Speaker 4: chance creation around the box, dribbling, passing, ball progression shots.

1091
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 4: He's done in all for this attack and Jonis Hoffman

1092
00:48:56,200 --> 00:48:58,040
Speaker 4: is back on the right wing to kind of facilitate

1093
00:48:58,120 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 4: with En Below. They've switched up how they're playing in

1094
00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,720
Speaker 4: the midfield a little bit. They've they've kind of shuffled

1095
00:49:02,760 --> 00:49:04,759
Speaker 4: Flori and Nohas out for the moment. He's been really

1096
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 4: struggling this season after a great leader last year. Gladbach

1097
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,560
Speaker 4: is a huge mismatch here though, against a HAIRTA team

1098
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 4: who is really bad, relegation level bad. There's five teams

1099
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 4: in the Bundesliga that look absolutely awful. They look like

1100
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:17,640
Speaker 4: they're going to be competing for those two and a

1101
00:49:17,680 --> 00:49:21,720
Speaker 4: half relegation spots. Glad Bock top five and shots expected, goals,

1102
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 4: box entries and big scoring chances. At the other end,

1103
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:27,960
Speaker 4: Hairta is bottom four out of eighteen in shots allowed,

1104
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:31,400
Speaker 4: box entries, ball recoveries, so they don't really press a

1105
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:33,040
Speaker 4: ton and don't really win the ball off.

1106
00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:33,879
Speaker 1: Glad Black a lot.

1107
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 4: They've been pummeled by every decent team they've played. Leipzig

1108
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 4: beat him by six, Byron beat him by five. This

1109
00:49:39,520 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 4: hair to to team has had a couple of luck

1110
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:45,279
Speaker 4: wins against relegation fodder and has otherwise been awful. So

1111
00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,719
Speaker 4: I think Gladbach here. I faded him last week, got

1112
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 4: pretty lucky. I'm on him this week. Back to back,

1113
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,680
Speaker 4: back to back Berussio much in Gladbach money line.

1114
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 2: Also pain trained Bat of the week Hoffenheim plus two

1115
00:49:56,719 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: and a half against.

1116
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, who cares, not even get into it, Let's just whatever. Yeah,

1117
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:02,880
Speaker 1: I don't know how many to play it.

1118
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,360
Speaker 4: Yet Hoffenheim actually has a really fun, really good attack.

1119
00:50:06,800 --> 00:50:08,480
Speaker 4: It's going to be a really interesting match. It's when

1120
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:11,280
Speaker 4: I will be watching because I think they can absolutely

1121
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:12,560
Speaker 4: create chances against Byron.

1122
00:50:12,600 --> 00:50:14,040
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be a really interesting test.

1123
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:20,280
Speaker 4: Buttenheim Hoffenheim's defense is bad, bad, and they're at Byron,

1124
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:22,280
Speaker 4: and so I'm gonna.

1125
00:50:22,040 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 1: Have to think about how I'm gonna play this. I

1126
00:50:23,480 --> 00:50:26,800
Speaker 1: might do a team total, but we'll see. Yeah, just

1127
00:50:26,880 --> 00:50:27,320
Speaker 1: keep an eye on.

1128
00:50:27,440 --> 00:50:31,720
Speaker 4: Benfica was just awful. I mean they'll know. For seventy

1129
00:50:31,800 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 4: minutes and then completely folded like a beach chair.

1130
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,760
Speaker 2: They almost scored like a minute before Byron.

1131
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, and then four goals of course, So all right,

1132
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 4: that was a painful Losso please can we stop talking

1133
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 4: about Byron Munich please?

1134
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 2: I hate them, Siria.

1135
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:46,439
Speaker 1: I like Roma plus one eighty.

1136
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 2: Uh.

1137
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 3: They're taking on Napoli and probably the game of the

1138
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 3: weekend over in in Italy. Jose Mourinho's team they've been

1139
00:50:53,080 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 3: pretty good. Napoli has been really really good. Their defense

1140
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:59,959
Speaker 3: is clicking on all levels, but their strength of schedu

1141
00:51:00,360 --> 00:51:02,879
Speaker 3: is a not all that impressive. At some point they're

1142
00:51:02,880 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 3: going to lose Luciano Spiletti's team, So I'm going to

1143
00:51:05,920 --> 00:51:08,279
Speaker 3: try to beat him with Jose Marino plus one eighty

1144
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 3: and hopefully he's running down a touch line at Stadio

1145
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:15,960
Speaker 3: Olympico at you know, two thirty pm Eastern on Sunday, Anthony,

1146
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:16,440
Speaker 3: what about you?

1147
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to go under two and three quarter

1148
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 4: goals in Lazio and Verona. It's it's just a matter

1149
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 4: of both teams being a little bit overrated. Lotsio is

1150
00:51:25,120 --> 00:51:28,440
Speaker 4: fourth and big scoring chances despite pretty mediocre crossing and

1151
00:51:28,480 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 4: ball progression numbers. Marisio, sorry managing there, They're just not

1152
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:35,920
Speaker 4: a great attack the twelfth in shots. They like to

1153
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,239
Speaker 4: pass the ball around. That's kind of how sorry does it.

1154
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:42,040
Speaker 4: But Verona also has above average pressing numbers. They should

1155
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 4: be able to kind of disrupt sorry ball a little bit.

1156
00:51:44,239 --> 00:51:47,000
Speaker 4: Both teams are wildly overforming XG, so under two and

1157
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 4: three quarter goals is good for me.

1158
00:51:48,760 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 3: B J.

1159
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:50,280
Speaker 1: Where are you taking us in Italy?

1160
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna be following Fiorentine around the country. I mean,

1161
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:56,200
Speaker 2: they're they're so overrated. Minus four point four expected gold

1162
00:51:56,239 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 2: evential second worst in Syria. But they're somehow in the

1163
00:51:59,400 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 2: top half of the table. They're dead last in non

1164
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 2: penalty expected goals four. They do have a good striker

1165
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 2: in dou Son Lahovic, but he's outside him. They have

1166
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,680
Speaker 2: nothing kagiliaries. You know, they're not as bad as they seem. Yeah,

1167
00:52:13,719 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 2: I'll take Kagilari plus half a goal plus one twenty five.

1168
00:52:17,440 --> 00:52:22,359
Speaker 3: With all the enthusiasm of like a rhinoceros charging something there.

1169
00:52:22,680 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 3: That sounds like a great bet. All right, leg this

1170
00:52:25,800 --> 00:52:28,920
Speaker 3: is uh for the top flight in France. This is

1171
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 3: Bjay's area of expertise, so we'll let him serve as

1172
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 3: our guide right now.

1173
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, Lens minus one against De Brestwas. This Lens team

1174
00:52:37,080 --> 00:52:39,440
Speaker 2: is really really good outside of the big clubs in France.

1175
00:52:39,520 --> 00:52:42,239
Speaker 2: They're top five and pretty much every offensive metric that

1176
00:52:42,320 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 2: you look at, and defensively they're juggernaut as well. They

1177
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 2: play out of the same formation that Chelsea plays out

1178
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 2: of three four to two one. They all allow point

1179
00:52:49,600 --> 00:52:51,799
Speaker 2: eight eight expected goles for for ninety minutes when playing

1180
00:52:51,840 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 2: out of it. So De Brestwas is a relegation team.

1181
00:52:55,200 --> 00:52:58,680
Speaker 2: They're bottom five and every offensive and defensive metric you

1182
00:52:58,719 --> 00:53:00,279
Speaker 2: look at. They haven't won a match you have this

1183
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,799
Speaker 2: season love lens minus one at.

1184
00:53:02,719 --> 00:53:05,120
Speaker 1: Plus one fifteen, Anthony, Do you have anything for us

1185
00:53:05,320 --> 00:53:07,840
Speaker 1: in France? Yeah, the game of the weekend in France.

1186
00:53:07,880 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 1: I'm actually going to tune in for this one.

1187
00:53:09,440 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 4: Look, I'm not a huge League guy, but there's one

1188
00:53:12,360 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 4: team that I love in League on this year, and

1189
00:53:14,120 --> 00:53:14,800
Speaker 4: it's Marseille.

1190
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 1: Not just because BJA has been betting against them and losing, not.

1191
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:20,760
Speaker 4: Just because of that, but because they have two former

1192
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 4: arsenal well ones on loan, two guys who have been

1193
00:53:23,520 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 4: absolutely transforming this team in Miteo Gendouzi in the midfield

1194
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:30,160
Speaker 4: and Williams Saliba, who have taken leaps this year, both

1195
00:53:30,239 --> 00:53:32,920
Speaker 4: under the age of twenty three. Striker Bamba Diang averaging

1196
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:35,200
Speaker 4: three point three shots for ninety and point sixty six

1197
00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 4: xg p ninety.

1198
00:53:36,040 --> 00:53:38,399
Speaker 1: He's under twenty three. The team is getting better.

1199
00:53:38,440 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 4: They're trending up their fourth and expected goal third and

1200
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 4: shots third and box entries.

1201
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,680
Speaker 1: They're playing a PSG team who is.

1202
00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 3: Not that good.

1203
00:53:47,040 --> 00:53:48,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to bang the drum on that.

1204
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,839
Speaker 4: All year they played level with Leipzig, got a luck

1205
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:53,400
Speaker 4: penalty that m Bape totally flopped to get there was

1206
00:53:53,440 --> 00:53:56,879
Speaker 4: another late penalty that was pretty questionable too. PSG dead

1207
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,320
Speaker 4: last in ball recoveries, very Unpoachatino, like Poctino for his

1208
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 4: pressing at Tottenham, not pressing at all because he doesn't

1209
00:54:02,520 --> 00:54:04,960
Speaker 4: have the horses to press fourteenth and pressing success rate.

1210
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:06,680
Speaker 4: They will not be able to win the ball off Marseille,

1211
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,799
Speaker 4: especially in transition. Marseille will score and keep this game close.

1212
00:54:10,080 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 4: Marseille plus one minus one twenty more like in Floppe.

1213
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:17,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, the end on Twitter.

1214
00:54:18,280 --> 00:54:20,879
Speaker 3: I will probably end up on the Marseille money line

1215
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:24,080
Speaker 3: just because of that. All right, this is the part

1216
00:54:24,120 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 3: of the show where we have to give you a warning.

1217
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:28,399
Speaker 3: This part is not for the faint of heart. It's

1218
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 3: our underdog money line, Parlay. Don't expect this thing to

1219
00:54:32,640 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 3: come through because it's going to be north of forty

1220
00:54:35,239 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 3: to one. Sometimes it gets as high as like one

1221
00:54:37,160 --> 00:54:40,399
Speaker 3: hundred to one some weeks. My favorite underdog this week,

1222
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:41,160
Speaker 3: I typed.

1223
00:54:40,960 --> 00:54:41,560
Speaker 1: Him up earlier.

1224
00:54:41,640 --> 00:54:44,399
Speaker 3: I like Burnley plus three hundred at Southampton. Don't think

1225
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 3: Southampton is very good. I think Burnley and the Saints

1226
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 3: are really there's not that much that separates them. They

1227
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:53,520
Speaker 3: play things very differently. But I like the offensive regression

1228
00:54:53,560 --> 00:54:56,320
Speaker 3: to come for the Clarits this weekend. Plus three hundred

1229
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:58,760
Speaker 3: give me Sean Deitsch, BJ.

1230
00:54:58,920 --> 00:54:59,400
Speaker 1: What about you?

1231
00:55:00,480 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 2: If you've listened to our YouTube show before, you'll know

1232
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:04,480
Speaker 2: that I have a vendetta against a few teams and

1233
00:55:04,560 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 2: this is one of them, Troyes plus two fifty against

1234
00:55:07,520 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 2: Dodd de Reims. I'm not going to go into it,

1235
00:55:10,080 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 2: but if you want to go look at understad or

1236
00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 2: info goal or fbref dot com, go ahead, because this

1237
00:55:15,040 --> 00:55:19,120
Speaker 2: SOTD de Reams team was incredibly overvalued last season and

1238
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:21,400
Speaker 2: this season they haven't been great as well. They're bottom

1239
00:55:21,480 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 2: five and pretty much every single offensive quite a category.

1240
00:55:24,080 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 2: And yeah, Troyes is a newly promoted team and they're

1241
00:55:26,239 --> 00:55:30,479
Speaker 2: not that great, But there is no reason why Stodd

1242
00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:32,399
Speaker 2: Reims should be this big of a favor over really

1243
00:55:32,480 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 2: anybody in France right now. And I just have had

1244
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:37,919
Speaker 2: a vendett against them for a long time. I can't

1245
00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 2: beat them, and this is another situation where I'm just

1246
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:45,399
Speaker 2: going to bite the bullet and hopefully I finally defeat them.

1247
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:47,440
Speaker 1: Sounds wonderful, Anthony, What about you?

1248
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 4: Well, if BJ's bogie team is Soddreams, then my bogie

1249
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:56,399
Speaker 4: team is Buyer Leverkusen. Cashed a Buyer Leverkusen fade last

1250
00:55:56,440 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 4: week on Buyer Munich, which I another team I don't

1251
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:00,919
Speaker 4: like butting on, but I bet on them last week.

1252
00:56:01,440 --> 00:56:03,399
Speaker 1: Cohn is plus two to twenty on the money line.

1253
00:56:03,480 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 1: I like them.

1254
00:56:04,360 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 4: Bj already talked about this in his Benesliga section when

1255
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 4: he made the pick on Coln to get at least

1256
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:10,319
Speaker 4: a point here. I think they have a good shot

1257
00:56:10,360 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 4: to win this match. Cohn one of the more improved.

1258
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:13,600
Speaker 1: Teams in the Bundesliga.

1259
00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 4: They were really struggling during the pandemic year, but they've

1260
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,560
Speaker 4: been much better this year and pretty much everything metrics wise.

1261
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 4: Leverkusen getting a ton of xgover performance from their secondary

1262
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 4: guys like Florian Verts who I like but is not

1263
00:56:24,080 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 4: as good as his finishing suggests, and mushad Abi who

1264
00:56:27,040 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 4: has scored six goals from like two expected. It's just

1265
00:56:29,680 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 4: not going to continue. Leverkusen will fade, and hopefully the

1266
00:56:33,360 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 4: fade starts and continues after the beatdown at Byron, hopefully

1267
00:56:36,480 --> 00:56:39,959
Speaker 4: continues against con So. I like Coln plus two twenty

1268
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,760
Speaker 4: if you wrap all three of those teams together that's Burnley,

1269
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:46,280
Speaker 4: Cohn and Troyes. That's a forty five to one payout

1270
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,000
Speaker 4: should they win, which they won't. All right, let's move

1271
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:53,239
Speaker 4: on to our favorite bet of the weekend. Anthony will

1272
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 4: start with you. Who is your favorite bet? Yeah, we're

1273
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 4: going back to the Premier League. I mentioned it during

1274
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 4: that section. Southampton and only over two and a half goals.

1275
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:03,880
Speaker 4: We've got two teams in Southampton and Burnley, who are

1276
00:57:03,960 --> 00:57:07,439
Speaker 4: massively underperforming they're expected goals numbers going forward. We also

1277
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:09,560
Speaker 4: have a Southampton team that's conceding a lot of high

1278
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:12,760
Speaker 4: quality chances, especially from set pieces. We've got a Burnley

1279
00:57:12,840 --> 00:57:15,759
Speaker 4: offense that has a lot of success with crosses, a

1280
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,560
Speaker 4: lot of success with corners that create a lot from

1281
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:20,920
Speaker 4: set pieces and crosses, which is where Southampton can be

1282
00:57:21,000 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 4: vulnerable here. I think both defenses are pretty mediocre to bad,

1283
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 4: not quite the same Brandy magic as the past. So

1284
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 4: I think there's gonna be goals in this game, over

1285
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,280
Speaker 4: two and a half goals at even money.

1286
00:57:32,080 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 2: B J.

1287
00:57:32,480 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 1: What about you?

1288
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's West tam droon obem minus one thirty. I

1289
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:39,680
Speaker 2: mean the Hammers are really good offensively, top five and

1290
00:57:39,720 --> 00:57:42,320
Speaker 2: pretty much every offensive metric. You look at. What I

1291
00:57:42,400 --> 00:57:44,760
Speaker 2: really like in this matchup though, is Tottenham is one

1292
00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:46,680
Speaker 2: of the worst pressing teams in the Premier League and

1293
00:57:46,720 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 2: the west Ham is fantastic against pressure. Tottenham somehow offensively

1294
00:57:51,080 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 2: can't seem to put the ball in the back of

1295
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:54,560
Speaker 2: the net even though they have guys like Harry Kane

1296
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 2: and Hung vin Son. I mean, fifteenth and non penalty

1297
00:57:57,760 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 2: expected goals per match with those two guys is just pathetic.

1298
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:05,360
Speaker 2: So I love west Ham at home Dronto bet minus

1299
00:58:05,400 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 2: one thirty and let's make it a party.

1300
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,880
Speaker 3: My favorite bet this weekend. I like west Ham plus

1301
00:58:09,960 --> 00:58:11,960
Speaker 3: one forty five on the money line. I would honestly

1302
00:58:12,000 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: play it down to plus one twenty. They are the

1303
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:16,000
Speaker 3: better team, They're at home. This is a pretty good

1304
00:58:16,080 --> 00:58:18,160
Speaker 3: number against a pretty mediocre.

1305
00:58:17,840 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: Team in Tottenham, so I'll take the Hammers.

1306
00:58:20,640 --> 00:58:23,400
Speaker 3: David Moyes's Hammers plus one forty five is my favorite

1307
00:58:23,440 --> 00:58:26,440
Speaker 3: bet in soccer this weekend. Gentlemen, it's been a pleasure

1308
00:58:26,840 --> 00:58:29,920
Speaker 3: for BJ Cunningham. For Anti di Dubundo, I'm Michael lebuff.

1309
00:58:30,120 --> 00:58:34,120
Speaker 3: This has been wonderful and please remember to rate, review

1310
00:58:34,360 --> 00:58:37,400
Speaker 3: and subscribe to our podcast and if you do, leave

1311
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 3: us a review. Make sure to leave your Twitter handle

1312
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 3: to be entered in a contest to win a soccer

1313
00:58:42,560 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 3: jersey of your choice from this season.