1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. This 5 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: is important on an election day, We're gonna recalibrate with 6 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: Kathleen Fisher of Bernstein. Kathy, it's a single digit world 7 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: one year trailing SMP up six percent. If I bought 8 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:43,600 Speaker 1: the footsie and dollars that'd be negative eight as well. 9 00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:47,159 Speaker 1: Maybe on an election day, have to recalibrate. What do 10 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 1: I recalibrate too? In equities, bonds, in cash. You know, 11 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 1: we've been saying for some time that investors should expect 12 00:00:57,120 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 1: mid single digit returns. Were there. That's what's new, you know. 13 00:01:00,520 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: That's when you think of the past few years. We've 14 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 1: had some great years. Last year was very, very strong 15 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: across global equity markets. It's not surprising this year is 16 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,640 Speaker 1: less good because we do think you're going to get 17 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: roughly six percent compound returns on US stocks over the 18 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: next decade or so and maybe seven ish outside the 19 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: US UM which is one of the reasons. We're really 20 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: encouraging clients to stick with a non US allocation, maintain 21 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:30,039 Speaker 1: lobal equity allocation because non U s docks are cheaper. Right, 22 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:32,679 Speaker 1: We're wanted to go, and we're beginning to hear a 23 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:36,959 Speaker 1: real percolation of getting back in non US. Is that 24 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:39,520 Speaker 1: Semens of Germany or is that a company I don't 25 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:43,800 Speaker 1: know in Cambodia? Which is it? It's both? Um. Clearly, 26 00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 1: the problems that Europe has are well understood. Um the 27 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 1: problems emerging markets have are perhaps less well understood because 28 00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: they're not a monolithic group. Each country is very different 29 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 1: and they've pretty much been sold off in tandem. So 30 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: I think the key thing is to look at companies 31 00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 1: that are located outside the US, understand what their business 32 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: model is, who their customers are, and make a decision 33 00:02:07,800 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: about the valuation of those companies independent of where they're located. 34 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 1: Let's talk about where the customers are located themselves. In 35 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 1: the way you're looking for the companies to be located. 36 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: When do you want the client based to be located 37 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: off those companies? Do you want it to be a 38 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 1: European story or an international story that gets the European valuation. 39 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: So this is the really important question. Is all of 40 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:33,160 Speaker 1: the trade um discussions, the trade problems, the trade skirmishes 41 00:02:33,600 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 1: are causing all of that to be less clear than normal. Right. 42 00:02:36,960 --> 00:02:39,640 Speaker 1: We would argue that in China, for example, you want 43 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,800 Speaker 1: to be in Chinese companies that are selling to Chinese 44 00:02:42,840 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: local consumers because they are of course having the ability 45 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 1: to spend more money on goods and services right there. Um, 46 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,840 Speaker 1: that is still true. Um, But with the perception of 47 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: China slowing down, a lot of those stocks have sold 48 00:02:56,040 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: off as well. So there's a lot of idiosyncratic issues 49 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: have to look at in each situation. So it's not 50 00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: a model alnel with the issue. But in terms of multinationals, 51 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,640 Speaker 1: I would argue if you're thinking, if you're worried about 52 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 1: a country in Europe that's not as robust as it 53 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:13,239 Speaker 1: might be, But there's a company that's a multinational selling 54 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 1: to company to consumers all around the world, you can 55 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,600 Speaker 1: get discounted stocks um that are very attractive. Think going 56 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 1: to get to the top story of the day, the 57 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,639 Speaker 1: midterm elections. There's a view that gridlock is good for markets. 58 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:30,519 Speaker 1: Historically it's gridlock good for markets. Now it will be 59 00:03:30,520 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: because people assume little change. But going back to I 60 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: said before, Um, nothing in the elections is going to 61 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 1: change the fact that we still have to deal with 62 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: these trade issues and the fact that interest rates are rising, 63 00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: and all these things will be sources of volatility for 64 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: stock markets. Um. But gridlock is the expectation and would 65 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: probably be the best outcome for the election. Cathy Fisher, 66 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 1: great to have you with us on Bloombock Surveillance on 67 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:58,920 Speaker 1: an important day as the midterm results approaches. Bernstein's head 68 00:03:58,960 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: of Wealth and Strategies. What we're trying to do today 69 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:07,839 Speaker 1: on this election day is give you smart coverage from 70 00:04:08,000 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 1: deeply experienced political types. One of those would be Douglas 71 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 1: High Here, of course is uh some of the public 72 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 1: service to the Republicans and particularly the President Bush the younger, 73 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 1: and of course with his work of the Republican National Committee. Uh, 74 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,600 Speaker 1: and now, and I should say with Eric Canter as well. 75 00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: He's out of Chapel Hill years ago. And Doug, the 76 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: reason I'm field you're on is you have an encyclopedic 77 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:37,839 Speaker 1: knowledge of Iowa. What do the pundits get wrong about 78 00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 1: the changes of Iowa, of which you know every square 79 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 1: acre well Iowa is a growing and changing state. At 80 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,559 Speaker 1: the state with a with an economy that's doing better 81 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: than the national average. Obviously that the whole country is 82 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: doing pretty well right now, but I always been at 83 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,520 Speaker 1: the leading edge of that. Right now and because it's changing, 84 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,840 Speaker 1: we we have a couple of races that that people 85 00:05:01,880 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: are looking at. David Young's congressional race, who has been 86 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: in um Um Congress for a couple of years now, 87 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:12,520 Speaker 1: is arguably the most vulnerable race um that any Republican 88 00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: has right now is expected to be a pickup. And 89 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: then another race that people weren't looking at as recently 90 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: is say a month ago, um is Steve King, who, 91 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: after controversy after controversy m has really put himself behind 92 00:05:28,640 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: in eight ball. And I should say these are two 93 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 1: very you know, people tend to think of Iowa's being 94 00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,600 Speaker 1: the same thing, but these are are very homogenious place. 95 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: These are very different congressionals. Doug, your claimed, Doug is 96 00:05:42,440 --> 00:05:46,000 Speaker 1: somebody could talk to all sides, all parties within the 97 00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:50,600 Speaker 1: internicing battle of American politics is the activities of Mr 98 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:54,159 Speaker 1: King of Iowa. Is it past its cell by date? 99 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,719 Speaker 1: I mean, is that the past history and it's going 100 00:05:56,760 --> 00:06:00,800 Speaker 1: to end with this election, all of them hatred. But 101 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: the anger that we see out there, Oh, I think 102 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 1: the anger that we've seen is here to stay for 103 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,679 Speaker 1: a while. Unfortunately. UM. But what we've seen with Steve 104 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 1: King is so many times he said so many outrageous 105 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,119 Speaker 1: things that it's given his Democrat an opportunity here to 106 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:21,120 Speaker 1: to knock him off by surprise. It is a very 107 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: heavily Republican and Republicans tend to vote Republican regardless, just 108 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: as Democrats tend to do. UM. He's northwestern um Iowa's 109 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 1: places like Sioux City and Emmitsburg. He still should win, 110 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: but he's gonna have a closing here. And if Steve 111 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 1: King loses, that means it's not going to be a 112 00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: good night for Democrats, It's gonna be a great night 113 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:47,160 Speaker 1: for DA. On a broader basis, other Republicans migrating over 114 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 1: time towards a Whig outcome, are they becoming so narrow 115 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 1: and their number of registered voters in their need to 116 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 1: pull over disaffected Democrats and independence that they I don't 117 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: them what flavor of Wig in my history, but they 118 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 1: risk eighteen we do? You know? We we have Unfortunately, 119 00:07:10,040 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: and I say as a Republican. We have repelled a 120 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 1: lot of voters who are are looking in different directions 121 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: right now because of what they've seen coming from the 122 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: Republican Party. And that that really speaks to what this 123 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 1: entire election, at least on the House side is going 124 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: to be. If you look at what President Trump has 125 00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: done over the past couple of days or weeks, even 126 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: they've made a strategic decision that this is not about 127 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:39,000 Speaker 1: persuading anybody to vote Republican. It's about motivating Republicans to 128 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: get to the poll. We're not trying to appeal to 129 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: new voters here. We want our voters to get to 130 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: the But don't you need that? That's critical? I don't 131 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:51,160 Speaker 1: you need new voters to survive, to live, to prosper Yes. 132 00:07:51,200 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: And how do you get them when you've got when 133 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 1: you've got ads? For example, what we've seen in the 134 00:07:56,040 --> 00:07:59,560 Speaker 1: last twenty four hours ripped off the network by us 135 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:02,760 Speaker 1: Why set of networks? I should point out, I mean, 136 00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: how do you go out and get marginal new voters? Yeah? 137 00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 1: I think the answer is you dolt. And Democrats aren't 138 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:12,080 Speaker 1: just appealing to new voters, I think very smartly they've 139 00:08:12,120 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: appealed to get new candidates, better candidates, more experienced and 140 00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: differently experienced candidates. Se if female veterans who are running 141 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: as Democrats right now, that is a prototype of a 142 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: candidate that can appeal to a much broader swath of 143 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: voters than you know, what we typically have seen from 144 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 1: Republicans in the past, and certainly discycle it's a problem 145 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: for them. Douga, thank you so much, greatly appreciative, too 146 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,080 Speaker 1: quick as stuff. Douglas high with his work as a 147 00:08:39,120 --> 00:08:42,240 Speaker 1: former RNC communications director and of course working closely with 148 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 1: Eric Cantor. On this election day, it is good to 149 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: speak to someone who has taken a different road in 150 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,760 Speaker 1: a time where all sorts of Americans um maybe separate 151 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 1: uh faith from the daily grind of Washington. Joe Lieberman 152 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,959 Speaker 1: has pushed against that, of course a Senator from ken Connecticut, 153 00:09:01,320 --> 00:09:03,839 Speaker 1: but far more his public service to the nation of 154 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,240 Speaker 1: Vice President of candidate as well, Senator Lieberman, wonderful to 155 00:09:07,280 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: have you with us. Pim and I are going to 156 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,839 Speaker 1: jump into the election, but I must ask you about Pittsburgh, 157 00:09:12,880 --> 00:09:14,960 Speaker 1: and I want to ask you through the prism of 158 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 1: your son. You know your father was a liquor store owner, 159 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,800 Speaker 1: you went to Yale. Your son wandered through New Haven 160 00:09:20,840 --> 00:09:24,559 Speaker 1: as well, right, and he went to green He went 161 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: to be a headmaster at Greenfield Hebrew Academy. We always 162 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: do our background at Pomberg Surveillance in Atlanta. In Atlanta, 163 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,719 Speaker 1: what do you say to the kids in the Greenfield 164 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: Hebrew Academy or any other Jewish school in this station 165 00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,560 Speaker 1: after what we just saw on forget about the media 166 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: frenzy and adults pressing it. What is your son, as 167 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: a former headmaster there, what does he say to the kids. Yeah, 168 00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,600 Speaker 1: so I'll say I think my son, matt Um would say, 169 00:09:55,640 --> 00:09:58,200 Speaker 1: and I certainly say I would say to the kids, 170 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 1: believe in America. Um, the Jewish people have never lived 171 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 1: in a country outside of Israel where uh we have 172 00:10:07,400 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 1: had as much respect, opportunity, freedom, etcetera. And uh this 173 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:18,200 Speaker 1: act and uh there've always been anti Semites, but we've 174 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:22,720 Speaker 1: gone through a period of remarkable acceptance and openness in 175 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: our country where the anti Semites have really felt they 176 00:10:26,520 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 1: had to stay quiet. And look, I'm here. I ran 177 00:10:29,600 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: for a vice president thanks to Al Gore asking me 178 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: to go on the ticket. There never was any anti 179 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 1: Semitism in that campaign. And Uh, we did get half 180 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: a million more votes than the other ticket. So I'm 181 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:46,480 Speaker 1: not relitigating the Supreme Court decision. I'm just saying, what 182 00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,160 Speaker 1: a statement about the fairness of the American people. Now 183 00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:52,840 Speaker 1: there's an been an uptick in anti Semitic acts, there's 184 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,440 Speaker 1: still a minority. What happened in Pittsburgh and Squirrelville into 185 00:10:56,520 --> 00:11:00,800 Speaker 1: Synagogue was really the work of a lone wolf who 186 00:11:00,880 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: was uh, who was fed anti Semitism, semitism which he 187 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: wanted over social media. So I'd say to those kids, 188 00:11:10,320 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 1: Jewish kids, Okay, stay alert, but don't but get involved 189 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 1: in America. It's it's the great It really is the 190 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 1: greatest country in the world. It is a lone wolf. 191 00:11:19,320 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: And if it is a narrow segment of society, how 192 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: do all of us reaffirm and push against that danger? Well, 193 00:11:28,880 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: great question, I mean, I think in every way, and 194 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: I must say it began in Squirrel Hill in Pittsburgh. 195 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: The reaction to of the of the non Jewish neighbors 196 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: uh in Squirrel Hill, to the of the non Jewish 197 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: elected officials was so uh to me, moving in genuine UH. 198 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 1: There was a man I never met him, Rich Fitzgerald 199 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 1: County Executive in uh squirrel Hill, he says, these are 200 00:11:59,840 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: my neighbors, these are my friends. In other words, these 201 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,319 Speaker 1: aren't the Jews. These are my neighbors, my friends. So 202 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 1: each of us has to do that obviously, not just 203 00:12:09,600 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: what Jews with everybody else, um who is maybe a 204 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 1: little different. And you know, I always say, if you're 205 00:12:15,280 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: Jewish and or a Christian or Muslim and you believe 206 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,520 Speaker 1: in the Bible, you gotta remember that over and over 207 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:26,240 Speaker 1: it again. It says, never forget that you were strangers 208 00:12:26,320 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: meaning foreigners or immigrants or minority in the land of Egypt, 209 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:33,439 Speaker 1: and you better be nice to strangers who are around 210 00:12:33,440 --> 00:12:35,839 Speaker 1: you today. Are we broadcast in Egypt? I think we're 211 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: in right now. It's around the world. Senator Lieberman, I'm 212 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: wondering if you have any concrete advice or guidance for 213 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:50,599 Speaker 1: the new senators, because there will be some new senators 214 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 1: based on today's election. What guidance would you give them. 215 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:57,319 Speaker 1: I know that when you entered the Senate, George Mitchell, 216 00:12:57,679 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: I believe told you to folk gus on one or 217 00:13:00,920 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 1: two things. And when you left the Senate you had 218 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:11,840 Speaker 1: some words about bipartisanship, which ring true today, Well, it's 219 00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,280 Speaker 1: true that. Look, i'd say to the new centator most 220 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: important of all, because Congress has really let down the 221 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:21,480 Speaker 1: American people, because they really have put party in ideology 222 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: and interest group ahead of of solving America's problems, ahead 223 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 1: of the best interests of the country. And I would, 224 00:13:29,080 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: I would really say and plead with new centators, don't 225 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: let that happen. Uh makes I never introduced a piece 226 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:40,160 Speaker 1: of legislation that I cared about without finding a Republican 227 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 1: co sponsor because I knew if I did that, the 228 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: odds were would never get it done. And that's the 229 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: way things generally have worked in Congress since the very beginning, 230 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,800 Speaker 1: back in the eighteenth century. So to me, that's the 231 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:57,320 Speaker 1: critical challenge for new centers. I I'm co chair of 232 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: a group called No Labels, were involved in this campaign. 233 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: Everybody else seems to be talking about Republican, Democrat, red blue, liberal, Conservative. 234 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:09,240 Speaker 1: We're actually we raised over fifteen million dollars and we're 235 00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 1: supporting Republicans and Democrats if they give us reason to 236 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 1: believe they're going to get into Congress and solve some 237 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 1: problems instead of just screaming at each other and hopefully 238 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:22,760 Speaker 1: they'll they'll win today A Senator Lieberman just quickly. The 239 00:14:22,840 --> 00:14:28,640 Speaker 1: seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution pertains to the popular election 240 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 1: of senators. Do you think it would make any sense 241 00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: to have the senators elected by the state legislators, so 242 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: that the people who go to Washington specifically represent the 243 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: interests of their states. Interesting, I don't now, As you know, 244 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 1: for us an amazingly long time, right into the early 245 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: years of the twentieth century, about a hundred years ago, 246 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: a little more. Uh, it was the state legislators that 247 00:14:57,520 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: elected the senators. Now that began, I think because our founders, 248 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:06,960 Speaker 1: who were revolutionaries and and fought against the King of 249 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: England established a new country, of free country. They were 250 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: still a bit they were elitists. They were a bit 251 00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: worried about what the people would if you let them go. 252 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:22,360 Speaker 1: So instead they said that the state legislator, which was 253 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: likely to be the elite of the state, would choose senators. Uh, 254 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 1: that's not the way. We We've got to let the 255 00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:35,560 Speaker 1: people decide very quickly. Here won by less than eleven 256 00:15:35,600 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 1: thousand votes, eight tens of a percent against Mr Whicker. 257 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,160 Speaker 1: Did you have your did you have your acceptance speech 258 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 1: already or was it? Oh, I gotta make this up fast. 259 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 1: How that worked that even? Yeah? No, I'll tell you 260 00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: a quick story about that night. Um so we wrote 261 00:15:51,440 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 1: an acceptance speech in a concession speech. I pretty much 262 00:15:55,040 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 1: did that every race I was, including the ones that 263 00:15:57,760 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: I was um uh favorite, heavily to win. But here's 264 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: the story I want to tell you. The post close 265 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:06,560 Speaker 1: at eight o'clock. Around nine o'clock, my Press secretary comes 266 00:16:06,560 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 1: in and says, Peter Jennings will go live if you 267 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:13,960 Speaker 1: declare victory. Now what do you think I said? I 268 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: haven't won one yet. Okay, Senman, take you so much 269 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: of Connecticut, Thank you so much. Worldwide vote This is 270 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg pulls open nicely across much of the nation and 271 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 1: closing six pm mission Kentucky and parts of Indiana as well. 272 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: It is good to catch up with the former chairman 273 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,360 Speaker 1: of the President's Council of Economic Advisors. This for the 274 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:44,000 Speaker 1: Democrat Barack Obama. Austin Gouldsby joins us from Chicago this morning. Austin, 275 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: you've done a lot of work in economics and internet, 276 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,240 Speaker 1: in technology, you did a lot of work for Slate 277 00:16:50,320 --> 00:16:52,320 Speaker 1: sort of the hipper. You mean you're the hipper kind 278 00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:54,720 Speaker 1: of guy. You know, you're in the groove. Is there 279 00:16:54,760 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 1: a generational change today for the Democratic Party? Well, first 280 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,280 Speaker 1: of all, thanks for had me back, Tom. Uh. I 281 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: think there's some you can feel there is some generational 282 00:17:08,040 --> 00:17:13,080 Speaker 1: change taking place in the Democratic Party. I don't know 283 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 1: how that plays out, but I think you're you're definitely 284 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: seeing a lot of different types of candidates, uh, for 285 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:27,560 Speaker 1: running running for Congress, running for state reps, um as 286 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 1: the higher up you go to, and even for governor. 287 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 1: As you start getting to the presidential candidates and the senators, 288 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 1: maybe a little less um change. Yeah, and and Pim, 289 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: this goes back to the incredibly important internet commerce tech 290 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: sensitivity and the generation gap. Gooulesby. The Supreme Court just 291 00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 1: upheld the state's version of net neutrality. But but Austin Googlesby, 292 00:17:54,640 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: does the economy still determine election outcome? Doesn't seem like it. 293 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: You know, that's kind of the puzzle. Uh. You would 294 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 1: have thought that the sitting president and if the economy 295 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: is doing this well at the mid term, that we 296 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: all he talked about the fact that he didn't might 297 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 1: be because his mind is elsewhere but it might be 298 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 1: because the economy isn't what's leading people to vote. And 299 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:26,640 Speaker 1: you know, the President Trump himself put it when he said, well, 300 00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: we can talk about the economy, but but that's kind 301 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 1: of boring. So it seems like most of the older 302 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,480 Speaker 1: rules are off, where where the how the economy was doing, 303 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: how the income growth was in the last year um 304 00:18:41,920 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 1: is not the main determinant. Maybe that's a sign that 305 00:18:45,880 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: the income growth for for regular people hasn't been as 306 00:18:49,480 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: great as as you know, what if I told you 307 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate was this low and I told you 308 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:59,040 Speaker 1: we were growing at a decent clip in the old bag, 309 00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: probably would have said, well, people's incomes must be rising 310 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 1: like crazy like they did at the end of the nineties, 311 00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 1: but they kind of have not been. All right. But 312 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 1: if that's the case, and let's just take that as 313 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 1: uh something that you posit, does that indicate then that 314 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 1: the tone in Washington, in the Senate and in the 315 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: House will change. I don't necessarily mean that they're going 316 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:25,679 Speaker 1: to do anything bipartisan, but the focus what they focus 317 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 1: on is going to be different. Because if the focus 318 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:31,120 Speaker 1: is no longer on the economy to win votes, it's 319 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: got to focus on something else. You know, that's a 320 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: nice theory, but it actually turns into a dart theory, 321 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: which is I think it is going to focus on 322 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 1: something else, but it's not going to be something fun 323 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: and light. It's gonna be nasty. Uh. Cultural battles, and 324 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:56,679 Speaker 1: we have seen play out in the past as you 325 00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: run up to a presidential election, most lee Washington doesn't 326 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: get anything done, but they set up a series of 327 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:08,439 Speaker 1: show votes to try to embarrass and humiliate the other side. 328 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: And I bet for sure they're going to do that. 329 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean when I make jokes Austin about 330 00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,320 Speaker 1: your work on technology and the generation gap, but actually 331 00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: it's serious. Way back in the nineties early internet, you 332 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 1: were one of the first people to say, Okay, how 333 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: do we use the internet if we're old or young? 334 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:33,400 Speaker 1: Do you see a change in our consumption of political 335 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,119 Speaker 1: messages during an election? And I say this with a 336 00:20:37,160 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 1: gentleman from Chicago being path breaking on use of social 337 00:20:41,000 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: media a few years back, I mean, is there a 338 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: shift now in our consumption of social stuff for politics? 339 00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:53,680 Speaker 1: The first of all time? I appreciate that there's somebody 340 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: who still remembered what I did back in the day. 341 00:20:56,880 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: I mean, we're gonna be I'm gonna be a old 342 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:04,200 Speaker 1: man said that the bar. Remember that paper that you 343 00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:10,160 Speaker 1: can't have viewed sixteen election outcome and the way it's 344 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,640 Speaker 1: surprised everybody, or the way of surprise posters and others 345 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 1: and not recognize whoa something's going on with technology and 346 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: elections that that we never had before. So what's your 347 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:26,520 Speaker 1: two cents right now? Yeah? Look, I think that continues 348 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 1: the medians. That's that's a different way in my view, 349 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: a different way of saying. The media environments completely changing 350 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 1: and we're catching up to that. And that's that has 351 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: happened before. First came in radio, then TV, than the cable, 352 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: than the internet, now the social media, and it will 353 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:51,080 Speaker 1: probably change two or three more times, but it takes 354 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 1: you one to three election cycles to catch up to 355 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 1: the new technologies. I'm hoping that voters will becoming cre 356 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:06,600 Speaker 1: seemingly sophisticated and skeptical of what they're seeing on social 357 00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,480 Speaker 1: media and on the Internet. That certainly happened to TV 358 00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 1: ads that politicians ran, It certainly happened on cable, It 359 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,960 Speaker 1: certainly happened on the regular internet. It kind of hasn't 360 00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,639 Speaker 1: happened so far. We you know, we're getting ourselves worked 361 00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: up into these memes, oftentimes that are proved to be 362 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 1: completely false. Um. I feel like, within you know, one 363 00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,400 Speaker 1: to two more cycles, people are going to be saying, oh, 364 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: social media doesn't work. People aren't aren't listening to that anymore? 365 00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:39,159 Speaker 1: In one or two more cycles. Do you think that 366 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: we're going to be able to vote online? Maybe? I 367 00:22:46,440 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 1: still kind of feel like everybody's got the not unfounded 368 00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: fear that what if you will? I mean, I mean, 369 00:22:55,240 --> 00:22:57,159 Speaker 1: because it's not as if the voting booth is all 370 00:22:57,200 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: that secure these days. I mean, think of all the 371 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:03,440 Speaker 1: things that your phone does that you're like, why why 372 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,919 Speaker 1: I can't get a signal here? What's that happening? And 373 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: then apply that to voting. I think it's still going 374 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 1: to be some nervousness. Austin, tell me about turnout, I mean, 375 00:23:12,359 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: Mike Gallen Polish today from another source, a good source, 376 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 1: I should say that under thirty turnout pre election is 377 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 1: eight up to two point three million. Does a guy 378 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 1: a season guy like you do you just assume that's Democrats? Uh? 379 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: You know, my basic model of turnout as people turn 380 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: out when they're pissed, and people the Democrats are pissed, 381 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,239 Speaker 1: So there's gonna be a lot of turnout. Now that 382 00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,800 Speaker 1: usually sparks the And if you think the other people 383 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: are all turning out, then you're gonna turn out to Uh. 384 00:23:47,800 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: It feels like there's a lot more close contests this 385 00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,320 Speaker 1: time than in the normal mid term where it's kind 386 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 1: of a politburo and nine of the incumbents just um 387 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: get re elected. Uh. And we know the close races 388 00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:04,560 Speaker 1: leads to turn out too. So I don't think those 389 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,359 Speaker 1: are all Democrats. It might be the early vote is 390 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:11,359 Speaker 1: more disproportionately Democrats, but I think a lot of early 391 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: voters are are just regular voters. They just they don't 392 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,440 Speaker 1: want to go on a Tuesday, so they went on Austin. 393 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,240 Speaker 1: None of this matters. You're out of Milton Academy, the 394 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: hockey combine of Milton Academy? Are you slotted into take 395 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: over for Joel Quinnville? I was fired by the black Hawks. 396 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: That's that's a plus. Actually they grew up in California, 397 00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,640 Speaker 1: so I was there and they'd be like, Oh, we're 398 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: gonna go see the hockey game. I'll be like, which 399 00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,600 Speaker 1: are they trying to get that in the net. What 400 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: do they do? So you're not in the shortlist to 401 00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:45,480 Speaker 1: take over for Joel Quinnville in Chicago. No, but I 402 00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: but I uh, I would be open to if somebody 403 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 1: was going to give me a ticket that was good. 404 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: Black Hawks maype Leefe should be a very good ticket. 405 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 1: Always are Red Wings. Austin goes by hockey aficionado, thank 406 00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,240 Speaker 1: you so much. He's a former chairman talking Presidents Council 407 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,960 Speaker 1: of Economic Advice is seriously pim You know, people go 408 00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,399 Speaker 1: Austin goals be like, okay, what's the deal? And the 409 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: deal is At an exceptionally young age, he did original 410 00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: work on wait a minute, what is this thing the internet? 411 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: And you go yeah, yeah, yeah, except it was truly 412 00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:23,560 Speaker 1: first out of the box, was like this thing doesn't matter. 413 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 1: What do you think Do you think in maybe two 414 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: election cycles will have online voting. I don't think so, 415 00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: because I think that the local prerogative and state prerogative 416 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: will slow the whole process down. What I think is 417 00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:40,640 Speaker 1: dumb our lengthy lines at six pm and the children 418 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:44,520 Speaker 1: are hungry and I gotta get home and the line 419 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 1: is long, and will they keep the polls open? That 420 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: seems to be happening a lot coast to coast. Thanks 421 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen 422 00:25:55,359 --> 00:26:00,160 Speaker 1: to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast as 423 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 424 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 425 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 1: Radio