1 00:00:10,680 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: All right, welcome to La Kick Is Live. It is 2 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: Thursday night, September thirtieth three of Our Lord twenty twenty one. 3 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: This is certainly not Nashville, Tennessee. This is certainly not 4 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: our studio. It is an undisclosed location in an exclusive 5 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: Late kickbunker somewhere in the state of Georgia. That's about 6 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: as specific as I want to get right now. We'll 7 00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: talk about that a little bit more as the show 8 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: goes on, but we don't have time to talk about 9 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: location because the show is as always jam packed tonight. 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,480 Speaker 1: The bad news is my voice is shot. We didn't 11 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 1: even get to do a Late Kick extra podcast day 12 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,440 Speaker 1: because of that, had to save up for tonight. We 13 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:42,919 Speaker 1: plan on doing a normal length show. I've probably got 14 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: like fifteen minutes of voice, which stands to reason. Something's 15 00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: got to give here and we're on the road. So hey, 16 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: a lot different, but what remains the same as is 17 00:00:50,600 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: jam packed. I mean, we've got potentially a historic Saturday ahead. 18 00:00:54,120 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: I think a lot of folks are looking out there 19 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: and they're seeing sort of the undercard. We're gonna touch 20 00:00:57,800 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 1: on a lot of those games tonight, but you see 21 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: the bigger matchups to the Arkansas against Georgia, the Old 22 00:01:02,280 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: Mis against Alabama. The games we already broke down. A 23 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: lot of people are calling for the Dog to cover. 24 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: There aren't nearly as many people calling for the Dog 25 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:12,400 Speaker 1: to win out right, But if that were to happen, 26 00:01:12,959 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: that's really when it's game on. Like if Alabama and 27 00:01:15,720 --> 00:01:17,560 Speaker 1: or Georgia lose, that's really when it's game on. So 28 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: I'm gonna break down some more games because we already 29 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: did those. Around the SEC, Florida's got a big weekend, 30 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: LSU and Auburn have big weekends. Texas A and m 31 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: No one's talking about the Aggies. They're all looking ahead 32 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 1: the next week when they welcome in Bama. They got 33 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 1: a game this Saturday at home where they are favored 34 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 1: by a grand total of one touchdown. You may not 35 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: even know who they play. We'll talk about that in 36 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: just a second. Also several other games around the nation 37 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: that I don't think we've touched on nearly to the three. 38 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,040 Speaker 1: That's what Thursday for. So we're gonna touch on that. 39 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: And also this whole Nick Staven, Lane Kiffin dynamic, a 40 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: lot of people talking about that, a lot of good 41 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 1: writing out there about that because they play this Saturday. 42 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: That's the game will be at by the way. But man, 43 00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:00,360 Speaker 1: I was thinking today as I was driving into if 44 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 1: you want to call this our studio, our studio, and 45 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:05,160 Speaker 1: there's an angle on this, I don't think anyone's picking 46 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:08,240 Speaker 1: up on I mean, everyone talks about how it revitalized Alabama, 47 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: how it really revolutionized offense. There it did all that. 48 00:02:11,440 --> 00:02:14,520 Speaker 1: It saved Lane Kiffin's career, it did all that, but 49 00:02:14,600 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: that all's in the past. There's someone right now. There's 50 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: a program right now that is in dire need of 51 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: what Alabama had injected into that program because in part 52 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: due to Lane Kiffin. So we'll talk about all that. 53 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,080 Speaker 1: Make sure you are subscribed to the YouTube channel we 54 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 1: were about to. Man, we're rapidly closing in on seven 55 00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: seventy thousand subscribers, So thank you for that and continue 56 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 1: that momentum. All right, let's dive in here. We got 57 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: to go all around the SEC. It's a big weekend 58 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: in the SEC because Arkansas plays Georgia. It's a big 59 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,920 Speaker 1: weekend in the SEC because Ole mis plays Bama. But 60 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,079 Speaker 1: we already broke those games down. If you want to 61 00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: see those picks, they are available both in podcast form 62 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,120 Speaker 1: and on the YouTube channel. But let's talk about some 63 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:56,040 Speaker 1: of these other games coming up Saturday. I mean, there's 64 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: a banner day in the SEC, so much so that 65 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: they're pushing one of these games, the one we're about 66 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: to open with all the way to a nine o'clock 67 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: Eastern time kickoff. That is where we begin in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. 68 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,760 Speaker 1: What about this Auburn at LSU game. You know, this 69 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,600 Speaker 1: time last week, I was telling you LSU's gotta win 70 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,800 Speaker 1: at Mississippi State. They've got to win in order for 71 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: that staff to basically salvage their futures into salvage a season. 72 00:03:21,720 --> 00:03:24,200 Speaker 1: And that sounded a little bit stark to the point, 73 00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: but I believed it. They got through that. Well, now 74 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 1: the reward is they get to come home and they 75 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: get to play Auburn. The line on this game is 76 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 1: three and a half. That's what LSU is favored by. 77 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: Auburn hasn't won in Baton Rouge since, like the Clinton administration, 78 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: it's been a long long time. Three and a half. 79 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: What do we think of that's essentially home field? So 80 00:03:42,560 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: what do we think about the fact that oddsmakers are 81 00:03:44,640 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: telling you we kind of think they're even teams. Have 82 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: at it. Take the home field and have at it. 83 00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 1: Look at the play splits in this game at halftime 84 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: if the score is close. I want you to do 85 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:57,160 Speaker 1: something for me, and I want you to just take 86 00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: a look at the box score, and I want you 87 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 1: to see how many plays have been not necessarily time 88 00:04:01,280 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: of possession, how many plays have been run normally they correlate. 89 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,720 Speaker 1: And keep in mind that in route to a win 90 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: last week, LSU's defense was on the field. I think 91 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 1: eighty eight plays they had the old double snowman there. 92 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: Here's my concern for LSU as we dive into this game. 93 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 1: My concern is they have not been able to run 94 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 1: the ball. I don't think they'll magically find their running 95 00:04:20,240 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: game against Derek Mason in this Auburn defense. And so 96 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: there's a lot of volatility. There's a lot of variability here. 97 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: If LSU max Johnson, if they're really in sync on 98 00:04:29,960 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 1: third downs early on, and they sustain some drives and 99 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: put some points on the board, LSU will end up 100 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 1: winning the game. And you can forget what I'm talking about. 101 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 1: But if there's a lot of three and out, if 102 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: there's some clunkiness to LSU's offense early on. Here's the problem. 103 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: The problem is Auburn's They're more than capable of being 104 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: every bit as physical and then some as UCLA was 105 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: in Week one. And remember when those critical metrics started 106 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: to shift. The amount of plays run on top of 107 00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: everything else, That's what I'm concerned with. I'm concerned that 108 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,680 Speaker 1: at halftime, even if the score is close, I'll check 109 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: that box score and Auburn will have already run forty 110 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: four offensive plays to LSU's twenty seven. That's gonna add 111 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:09,680 Speaker 1: up in a fourth quarter game. It's gonna add up. 112 00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: And in the fourth quarter, if Auburn can have this 113 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: thing one possession either way and they've tilted those metrics, 114 00:05:14,680 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: that fourth quarter I think will be there for them. 115 00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: And with that in mind, ran it through the model. 116 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 1: The model put this right at to pick them. I 117 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 1: think Auburn's gonna end up winning this game. In the 118 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: least likely year for them to win the game. In 119 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 1: Baton Rouge, I actually think this is the year Auburn's 120 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:32,760 Speaker 1: gonna win. I don't have a ton of confidence in this. 121 00:05:32,960 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: I have my hands on my hips as I'm making 122 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: this pick. Which of course I never do, but I'm 123 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,159 Speaker 1: gonna take Auburn to win the game. I think last 124 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: week's close call against Georgia State kind of grabbed the 125 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: collar of that program a little bit. And there was 126 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: a firing of a wide receiver coach this week, so 127 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: it feels like they're in turmoil. Nothing solves that and 128 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 1: nothing extinguishes that quite like a win. This would be 129 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: a really big one for that program. Let's talk about Florida. 130 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 1: Florida is on the road. They are favored by somewhere 131 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 1: between eight and nine points, depending on where you're looking 132 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,359 Speaker 1: right now. They're at Kentucky. This is a Saturday five 133 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 1: o'clock Eastern time kickoff. I told you there's some weird 134 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: kickoff windows this Saturday, so you're looking. If you look 135 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: on the screen right now, if you're watching on YouTube, 136 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:14,640 Speaker 1: that numbers at seven and a half. So that's moved 137 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: even since I started taking notes on this thing this morning. 138 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: I told you a couple of times, and I'll tell 139 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,839 Speaker 1: you once more. I think what both of these teams 140 00:06:22,839 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 1: were able to do last week has been very overlooked. 141 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:28,919 Speaker 1: I appreciate the fact that Florida got up off the 142 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: deck in an emotional and physical letdown spot after they 143 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: played Vama and they ended up pulling away from Tennessee. 144 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: That is not a bad thing. That's a very good thing. 145 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: I don't care that it was close at the half 146 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,719 Speaker 1: because every football game we talked about four quarters long. 147 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: That is a feather in the cap of that coaching staff. 148 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: That's something that in the past maybe they wouldn't have 149 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,039 Speaker 1: been able to pull off. And then conversely or not conversely, 150 00:06:50,120 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: kind of on the same side of that coin, Kentucky. 151 00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:55,480 Speaker 1: I think they won by one possession at South Carolina 152 00:06:55,600 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 1: and you may look at that and you may say, well, 153 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 1: big deal. It is a big deal because they were 154 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:03,680 Speaker 1: my US three and turnovers Kentucky on the road in conference. 155 00:07:04,120 --> 00:07:07,159 Speaker 1: Losing the turnover battle by three should mean they lost 156 00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 1: the game by double digits. If you figure every turnover 157 00:07:09,880 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: is worth x number of points. We think somewhere between 158 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: five and a half and six. They should have lost 159 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:15,960 Speaker 1: the game. And not only did they cover, they ended 160 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 1: up winning the game. That's a big deal. And so 161 00:07:18,520 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 1: now we move into this game that everyone's got circled 162 00:07:20,760 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 1: and you don't have to worry about it being off 163 00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: the radar. I'm way more confident in Florida, and the 164 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: confidence grows week by week, not only because of what 165 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: I just talked about, but also because Florida can do 166 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:33,920 Speaker 1: something this year that we have not been able to 167 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: count on them doing. And that's how a really good 168 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 1: offensive line show up and therefore a really good ground 169 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: game show up. When you can do that, that travels, 170 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,280 Speaker 1: It goes with you, doesn't matter if you're playing in 171 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 1: Gainesville or on Neptune, or in this case Lexington, Kentucky. 172 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 1: That'll travel with you. That's very exciting because what that 173 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: also does is it removes the wild swings and the 174 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: ups and the downs, and the ebbs and the flows. 175 00:07:57,920 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: You get a lot more used to seeing one consistent 176 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: product out of them. And so I think that's what 177 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: we'll end up seeing Saturday. And having said that, they're 178 00:08:04,440 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: taking Kentucky's best shot Saturday, please don't misunderstand me. Kentucky 179 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 1: will empty the chambers here. This is a Super Bowl 180 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 1: type game for them. They're getting them at home. It's 181 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,480 Speaker 1: a big recruiting weekend for the Cats. But what I 182 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,680 Speaker 1: think this will end up feeling like is I think 183 00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: it'll feel like Florida's in control the whole game. But 184 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: yet you'll look up in the second half in Kentucky, 185 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: You'll be right there. You will say, probably to someone 186 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: sitting next to you. You'll text your buddy, you'll say, 187 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,240 Speaker 1: it feels like Florida is dominating this game, Like, look 188 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 1: at how many yards they have, Look how many plays 189 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,400 Speaker 1: they've run compared to Kentucky. Because what's gonna happen is 190 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,760 Speaker 1: I think Florida's gonna put together a few long drives 191 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: to score, and I think Kentucky's just gonna They're gonna 192 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: piddle around and then pop the old pitdle and pop 193 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 1: if you will offense, if it hasn't been created already, 194 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 1: it should and they'll pop enough big plays on Florida 195 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,360 Speaker 1: to where they're answering. They're answering in chunk plays, but 196 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: they're answering. In the end, though, I think Florida does 197 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: outlast Kentucky. Now I went with Kentucky in the points 198 00:08:56,720 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: anything over a touchdown, but I do like Florida to 199 00:08:59,559 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: win the game. I think it'll be competitive, but I 200 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: do like Florida to win the game. How about this one, 201 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: This is one that's totally off the radar. What do 202 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: you think about Texas A and M Saturday, And your 203 00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:12,760 Speaker 1: answer right now is half likely to be who they 204 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:15,839 Speaker 1: play in exactly. No one's paying attention to Texas A 205 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 1: and M right now. You saw them lose to Arkansas. 206 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: You know they've got Bama coming up somewhere. That's next week. 207 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,400 Speaker 1: They play Mississippi State Saturday. We told you in July 208 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,320 Speaker 1: this is the biggest ambush spot, perhaps on the entire 209 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: SEC schedule this year. Texas A and M is favored 210 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 1: by seven at home against Mississippi State, so let's counting 211 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 1: for home field. So when we're talking about well under 212 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: a touchdown spread between the two teams on a neutral 213 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: the totals in the mid forties, one of the biggest 214 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: ambush spots because you've got post Arkansas, pre Bama, you 215 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 1: got Mississippi State coming in there. No one expects anything 216 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: from them. They just lost to LSU. So it's season 217 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: salvaging time for both teams. And I'm I'm looking right 218 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,840 Speaker 1: now at what Texas A and M is as an 219 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 1: offensive product. And the problem is when you can't stretch 220 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: the field, when you can't sustain drives, when I cannot 221 00:10:08,200 --> 00:10:11,600 Speaker 1: count on you to put some offense together, you don't 222 00:10:11,640 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: blow anyone out Mississippi State included. You're not gonna blow 223 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: anyone out here. And I'll tell you this too. If 224 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 1: Mississippi State continues to limit the run to the degree 225 00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 1: that they have, they can win this game. This I 226 00:10:22,960 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: don't know if you guys would know or not, because 227 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:27,080 Speaker 1: not a lot of eyeballs are on this game. This 228 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: would not be a shocking upset. You know, we put 229 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: to Louisiana mon Roe last week plus twenty four. They 230 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 1: beat Troy outright, that was pretty surprising. This would not 231 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: be nearly as shocking as that. So here's what Mississippi 232 00:10:38,520 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: State needs. They need to limit that run. They need 233 00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:42,680 Speaker 1: to have A and M, you know, three and a half, 234 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: three point seventy five yards per carry somewhere in that range, 235 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: and then they need to pop them a couple of time. 236 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 1: They basically Mississippi State needs to do to A and 237 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 1: M what Arkansas did last week. Arkansas didn't have a 238 00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: bunch of sustained drives in their own right, but they 239 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:57,200 Speaker 1: popped them over the top a couple of times. Poor 240 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: tackling in the secondary for A and M. If they're 241 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,600 Speaker 1: gonna be lethargic, this is the spot to catch them 242 00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,680 Speaker 1: being lethargic Bay being Texas, A and M. I went 243 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 1: with A and M to win this game. But the 244 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: line seven, I went with Mississippi State to cover. I 245 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:12,960 Speaker 1: think it's that close. I think it's gonna be one 246 00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:17,000 Speaker 1: possession game. So those are some more picks around the SEC. Remember, 247 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,000 Speaker 1: we took Bama to win, we took Bama to cover 248 00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:22,520 Speaker 1: controversially so, and we took Arkansas to cover in Georgia 249 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: to win. This is a great Saturday in the SEC. 250 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:30,360 Speaker 1: You've got from noon until nine Eastern time. You've got 251 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 1: kickoffs happening about every two hours, and it's going to 252 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 1: be really, really fun. I gotta tell you a story 253 00:11:35,760 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: right quick. It's gonna be really quick. So I'm down 254 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,320 Speaker 1: here in Georgia. Just a little while ago. I was 255 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,640 Speaker 1: up at a park that ironically is named Pate Park, 256 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,840 Speaker 1: not named after me, but I lie about it a lot. 257 00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 1: And so I'm watching all the t ball games and 258 00:11:47,800 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: all the baseball games feed, and all the chairs are 259 00:11:51,200 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 1: lined up, and it was so beautiful because there were 260 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 1: academy chairs all over the place, almost like it was 261 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: a late kick ad, almost like we were filming a 262 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: commercial out there. But we weren't. But ma'am, there's a 263 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,679 Speaker 1: lot of Academy gear in Harris County, Georgia, I can 264 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: tell you that, and everywhere you're tailgating this week there 265 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:09,400 Speaker 1: should be as well. Academy dot Com is the website 266 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: if you can't get out of the store. But Academy 267 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: Sports and Outdoors, we are so proud to partner with them. 268 00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:17,640 Speaker 1: They've been great to us, You've been great to them, 269 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: and so in return, we're all just going to be 270 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,200 Speaker 1: more and more great to each other as time goes on, 271 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,920 Speaker 1: the circle of life sort of thing. But Academy Sports 272 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: and Outdoors not only the official sporting goods supplier of 273 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: our show, also the Big twelve, the SEC. It's gonna 274 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: be a phenomenal tailgate scene, especially the next two weeks 275 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:36,959 Speaker 1: and as the weather starts to change, you need to 276 00:12:36,960 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 1: get some new gear. You're gonna get it anyway. Go 277 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 1: to Academy Sports and Outdoors or Academy dot Com and 278 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 1: they will be more than happy to hook you up. 279 00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: I have got one, two, three, I got six games 280 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:50,839 Speaker 1: to talk to you about right here. We're gonna do 281 00:12:50,880 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: it sort of rapid fire. It is a beautiful Saturday again, 282 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: I cannot emphasize this enough. I want you guys to 283 00:12:57,080 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: just think about what could be happening. I mean, we've 284 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:03,320 Speaker 1: got we've got Texas fresh off having hung seventy on someone, 285 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,840 Speaker 1: and they're favored by what five points on the road 286 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: against TCU. This is a noon kickoff. There are a 287 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: couple of players last week if you did not see 288 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:15,199 Speaker 1: the TCU SMU game that did not play. Corey Bethley 289 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: big time nose tackle for TCU, and Cary Coleman is 290 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 1: probably their best edge rusher. They didn't play last week. 291 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 1: They're back. Those are game changers. Please don't be just 292 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: so lazy to look at the finals last week and say, oh, 293 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 1: this is free money. It's not, friends, free money does 294 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,240 Speaker 1: not exist. What is the outlier though? That's what we 295 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: got to ask ourselves because TCU got beat rested, no 296 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: less last week against SMU Texas. We have seen them 297 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: both get blown out and blow someone out. We've got 298 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 1: to figure out what the outliers are and what the 299 00:13:45,880 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 1: norm is. And this is an odds make pretty much 300 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,679 Speaker 1: telling you, well, we think it's somewhere in between, we 301 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:52,760 Speaker 1: don't quite know where. So if you're overly confident in 302 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 1: Texas have at it. Need not remind our Texas fans 303 00:13:57,320 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: out there what this series has been like lately. So 304 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: if you think it's free money, I would just encourage 305 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 1: a little Google search TCU Texas series history, b John Robinson, 306 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: Zach Evans. What a running back match up here? I 307 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 1: am going to go out on a little bit of 308 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 1: a limb, or go out on a limp, as our 309 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:16,960 Speaker 1: brother Lane Kiffin would say, I'm gonna take Texas to win, 310 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: and i am gonna take Texas to cover. It may 311 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 1: be a little bit square in nature. I do think 312 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: they found something with Casey Thompson. He's got some insane 313 00:14:23,200 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 1: streaks going on right now. So give me the Horns 314 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 1: to win, hornse to cover. Michigan is at Wisconsin. This 315 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:32,160 Speaker 1: is a point spread that also does not make sense 316 00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 1: to someone who is not regularly immersed in the odds 317 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,840 Speaker 1: making world or doesn't bet. I'm not encouraging I'm not 318 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: encouraging you to dive in. I'm just trying to explain 319 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: to you what's happening right here. Because you look at 320 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: it and you say Michigan's undefeated, Wisconsin's got two losses. 321 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:47,680 Speaker 1: They can't stop turning the ball over. Why would Wisconsin 322 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:52,080 Speaker 1: be a two point favorite at home or anywhere versus Michigan. Well, 323 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:57,760 Speaker 1: there's the turnover situation. First off, that is never carried 324 00:14:57,800 --> 00:14:59,800 Speaker 1: over Like odds makers will watch you turn the ball 325 00:14:59,800 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: over over and over and over again. They are not 326 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,600 Speaker 1: factoring that into future spreads because there is coming a 327 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: time where that offense will balance out for Wisconsin. And 328 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: the other thing is, for the first time last week 329 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 1: we saw someone limit Michigan on the ground, that being Rutgers. 330 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,400 Speaker 1: The final I think was twenty to thirteen, which was 331 00:15:17,520 --> 00:15:20,960 Speaker 1: well inside the spread, and so annodds Baker's looking to say, well, 332 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 1: if Rutgers did that, wis constantly got one of the 333 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: best run defenses in the country. And that is where 334 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 1: the most interesting facet of this game kind of inserts itself. 335 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: There's this weird split among people who follow Michigan. There's 336 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: a split, and on one side of the fence there 337 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 1: are people who think, well, the reason we're running it 338 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 1: is because that's all we can do effectively, Cade McNamara, 339 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 1: in this offense, we don't have any explosivity, we cannot 340 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: be consistent through the air. Then on the other side 341 00:15:49,400 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: of the fence, there's this other camp that believes, Oh, 342 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:54,480 Speaker 1: it's there, it's there. We just have not had to 343 00:15:54,520 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 1: pull it out yet. I think I'm a lot more 344 00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: in line with Camp A than can't Be. But I 345 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 1: will tell you if can't be is right, they will 346 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 1: be the reason Michigan wins this game. They're not running 347 00:16:05,520 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 1: the ball very successfully on Wisconsin. And what I'm very 348 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:13,080 Speaker 1: interested in is if this becomes a game where you 349 00:16:13,120 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: have to rely on a quarterback to win, which one 350 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: do you trust more? Graham mertz Is turned the ball 351 00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: over left and right. Cave mcnum. We aren't confident what 352 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: he can do with his maximum potential or capability. I 353 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,000 Speaker 1: went back and forth all day on this. I rode 354 00:16:27,040 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 1: Wisconsin last week and they led in the fourth quarter 355 00:16:29,680 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: and lost forty one thirteen. The only way that happens 356 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:35,000 Speaker 1: is turnovers. Very misleading. Final I'm gonna go right back 357 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: to the well. Not betting on them, but I'm gonna 358 00:16:36,920 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: go back to the well. I'm gonna take Wisconsin as 359 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 1: a short underdog to win this game outright in Madison 360 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 1: and Michigan their first loss, if that is to happen. 361 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:48,000 Speaker 1: My favorite Big Ten game of the week is Indiana 362 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: at Penn State. It's a night kickoff. Love love, love 363 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,000 Speaker 1: Penn State. In this spot, it's one of the first 364 00:16:55,200 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 1: best bets we had of the week. We got the 365 00:16:57,800 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 1: game when it was at Penn State minus ten and 366 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 1: a half. I think it's all the way up to 367 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 1: twelve or twelve and a half right now. I love 368 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 1: everything about Penn State in this spot. You remember what 369 00:17:05,200 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: happened in this game last year. It was the first 370 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 1: of you know what became several bumps down a very 371 00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:13,679 Speaker 1: very rocky hill for Penn State. But this is a 372 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:17,120 Speaker 1: superior team. They have got the home advantage, they've got 373 00:17:17,119 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 1: the revenge edge here as you see, the line now 374 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: is twelve and a half. I expect early pressure because 375 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: I think a fast start is in order for Penn State, 376 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: and so I expect early pressure to be placed on 377 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:31,360 Speaker 1: an Indiana team that has been very mistake prom, very 378 00:17:31,359 --> 00:17:34,040 Speaker 1: turnover prom Michael Penick has been very turnover prone in 379 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: his own right. I think it's going to be a really, 380 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 1: really good night for Penn State. I know that number 381 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 1: looks big, it's not nearly big enough. The Penn State's 382 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: gonna win this thing, and they're gonna stretch the margin 383 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: as James Franklin is one to do. If you've ever 384 00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:49,920 Speaker 1: bet against James Franklin, you've had a big underdog against 385 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: James Franklin. There have been more than a few times 386 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,000 Speaker 1: where he's gonna hurry up, you know, up three or 387 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,040 Speaker 1: four touchdowns late, try and get that cover. He knows 388 00:17:58,080 --> 00:18:00,479 Speaker 1: the alumni, he knows who they're betting on. So you 389 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 1: see Indiana at Penn State. This is some of the 390 00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 1: serious history looking forward to that one. Hey, there's an 391 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,480 Speaker 1: undefeated against undefeated matchup in the Big Twelve that we 392 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,119 Speaker 1: need to discuss for just a second here, Baylor in 393 00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:14,360 Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. It kicks off at seven. I can tell 394 00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:16,960 Speaker 1: you that the line right now is I think Oklahoma 395 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: State minus three and a half. I can tell you that. 396 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:20,440 Speaker 1: And the reason I'm telling you what I do know 397 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,040 Speaker 1: it's there's a whole lot we don't know here. It's 398 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,800 Speaker 1: hard to find a discernible ledge. I looked at this 399 00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,600 Speaker 1: game for like thirty minutes today, and you know, they're 400 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: little ones or twos on the one to ten scale. 401 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,200 Speaker 1: Either way, there is no seven or eight. I don't 402 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: really have a heavy lean here. I don't know who 403 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,679 Speaker 1: Oklahoma State is because every game they've had, they've been 404 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 1: a different version of themselves. I don't know if Cowboy 405 00:18:40,680 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 1: fans know who they are. This Baylor defense, I think 406 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:46,959 Speaker 1: is good enough to limit them, and I think it's 407 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: good enough to make them uncomfortable. They're still finding their way. 408 00:18:50,920 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: It's rare. It's rare that you say that four or 409 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: five weeks into the season. I really think that Oklahoma 410 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,159 Speaker 1: State offense for an undefeated team and a Mike Gundy 411 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,280 Speaker 1: team normally, that means it's a known commodity still and 412 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 1: its way love the curve that I think they've turned 413 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 1: under Dave Randa at Baylor. I'm gonna take Baylor to 414 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 1: win the game outright, cover the three and a half, 415 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,800 Speaker 1: win the game outright in the process. I think the 416 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,440 Speaker 1: most underrated game of the weekend is happening at UCLA. 417 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: This is Arizona State at UCLA. Ucla is favored by 418 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: three to me. It's the under the radar game of 419 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: the week. These are really good teams. We have both 420 00:19:23,800 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 1: of them ranked inside the JP Poll Top twenty five. 421 00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: Dorian Thompson Robinson went out of the game last week. 422 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: That's quarterback for UCLA. It looks like he's gonna go. 423 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: Sam Morazzo is a guy I have my eye on. 424 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 1: He is the center for UCLA questionable status right now. 425 00:19:38,760 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 1: Can't really get definitive word out there. Otherwise this is 426 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: a heavy UCLA lean for me. I like the Bruins 427 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: a lot in this game. We added them today to 428 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,120 Speaker 1: the Roman Noudle Express, so I'm taking UCLA minus three. 429 00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,200 Speaker 1: Of course, that means UCLA to win. And Friday night, 430 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,719 Speaker 1: oh man knows, are just Friday night Tomorrow night. If 431 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: you're watching live, this is exciting for Big ten. I 432 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: know I told you Indiana at Penn State's my favorite 433 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: Big ten game, but this one's got a very special 434 00:20:05,320 --> 00:20:07,840 Speaker 1: place in my heart too. It's an eight o'clock kickoff 435 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: Eastern time tomorrow night. Iowa is a three point favorite 436 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 1: at Maryland. Okay, so it's a very, very stark contrast 437 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:20,120 Speaker 1: in styles. It is a classic Tortoise versus Harris scenario here. 438 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 1: I don't have a strong feel on the game. Our 439 00:20:23,600 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 1: numbers indicate the lines pretty much right. I've got a 440 00:20:26,520 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: sneaking suspicion this is gonna be a good night for Maryland. 441 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: A lot of you think I'm an Iowa hater. Because 442 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 1: we have them in the thirteen range and the JP pole. 443 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:37,880 Speaker 1: It's not that, it's not that at all. If you'll 444 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 1: just never mind, it's not a ranking. Guys. If I 445 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: were ranking Iowa, i'd have them inside like the top 446 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,359 Speaker 1: six or seven. But it's a power rating Iowa. I 447 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: think they're gonna go down. I don't have a strong 448 00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,280 Speaker 1: feel on that, but I would take Maryland love the 449 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,439 Speaker 1: edge of quarterback. I would take them to win. And 450 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,040 Speaker 1: that is a loaded schedule telling you now, aside from 451 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: the Marquee games, we got a loaded, loaded college football 452 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: schedule Saturday. But what I wanted to wrap it up with, 453 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,240 Speaker 1: and we got some best bets coming up, so this 454 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:07,879 Speaker 1: isn't quite the end, but I wanted to take a 455 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:11,159 Speaker 1: couple of minutes and I just wanted to talk about something. 456 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,360 Speaker 1: We've got Lane Kiffin versus Nick Saban Saturday. Obviously we're 457 00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:15,560 Speaker 1: going to be in the house. That's where the Late 458 00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: Renaissance Tour is going to take us. We will be 459 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,919 Speaker 1: in tuscaloosas Saturday. But man, what a story this is. 460 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: I have seen some websites out there. I think Alex 461 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 1: Scarborough over on ESPN dot com did a really good 462 00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 1: story about this today. He wasn't the only one, but 463 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 1: he's one that I took some time to read the 464 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: work of about just chronicling where Alabama was when they 465 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: brought Lane Kiffin in, where Lane Kiffen was when Nick 466 00:21:41,080 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 1: Saban brought him in, and where both are now. To me, 467 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: you cannot overstate enough the importance and the magnitude of 468 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,360 Speaker 1: the decision when Nick Saban brought him in. And there 469 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: was a lot of talk in several of these features 470 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 1: about where Alabama's program was. They were still the number 471 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:01,000 Speaker 1: one program or right at the one or two program 472 00:22:01,040 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: mark in the country, but things were changing, things were 473 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,960 Speaker 1: quickly changing. And it was after the twenty thirteen season 474 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 1: and that's the year where the kick six happened and 475 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: Alabama misses out on the playoff, that they end up 476 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:17,199 Speaker 1: bringing Lane kiff and them and what a shift it was. 477 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,359 Speaker 1: And it didn't necessarily happen just like that, but it 478 00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 1: ended up happening. I think they reaped a lot more 479 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,960 Speaker 1: reward after Kiffin left because of the impact he had 480 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: and the ripple effect that it had when Nick Saban 481 00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:29,960 Speaker 1: hired him, But think about where they were, because it 482 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:34,160 Speaker 1: eliminated the biggest remaining edge that a lot of programs had. 483 00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,880 Speaker 1: There was talk around the coaching industry, there was talk 484 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 1: around just the old college football water cooler in general. 485 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: Back then, here's what it sounded like. It went something 486 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:47,199 Speaker 1: like this, We're never going to out recruit Alabama, but 487 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:51,640 Speaker 1: what we can do is we can strain them offensively 488 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: by using scheme rpo game for example, tempo for example, 489 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,600 Speaker 1: and so we can negate some of the talent edge 490 00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,439 Speaker 1: they have over us with our schematic edge. Nick Saban 491 00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 1: made that famous quote. I mean, now it's like etchton Stone, 492 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,679 Speaker 1: it's so famous. But he made the quote back then 493 00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: he said, is this what we want college football to be? 494 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: He was very upset by it. He did not shy 495 00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:14,680 Speaker 1: away from it, said I don't like it, and really 496 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 1: that's where he should have ended it, but he ended 497 00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,240 Speaker 1: up adding some caveats and I don't like it because 498 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:20,680 Speaker 1: a player's safety issues. Our defensive players on the field 499 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 1: too much. But really all he was doing was warning you. 500 00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: He just didn't phrase it as a warning. He didn't 501 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 1: finish the sentence. What he should have said, is is 502 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,159 Speaker 1: this what you want college football to be? Because I 503 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 1: can do it better than any one of you, But 504 00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: that second part he did not add that on, but 505 00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: he should have. Well, then he goes and finds lane Kiffin, 506 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,200 Speaker 1: who is on the ever loving scrap heap after getting 507 00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,680 Speaker 1: tarmaced at USC, which wasn't even a verb until lane 508 00:23:42,720 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: Kiffin got fired at USC, if we're being real with ourselves, 509 00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: and so lane Kiffin comes in, they agree to shift 510 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,679 Speaker 1: and Nick Saban wants to go a different direction. I 511 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 1: think we need to bookmark that because that is a 512 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,879 Speaker 1: critical juncture that they were at that another program is 513 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:00,440 Speaker 1: at right now. But after that happened, and I said, 514 00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:03,119 Speaker 1: it took away a big advantage. Here's the advantage it 515 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,200 Speaker 1: took away. Nick Saban was comfortable not venturing out into 516 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: the waters that a lot of the other offenses out there, 517 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,199 Speaker 1: by necessity, had already ventured out into. And it was 518 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:17,040 Speaker 1: always known if they ever decide to be really good 519 00:24:17,119 --> 00:24:20,960 Speaker 1: at quarterback, if he ever decided to overhaul his offense, 520 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: he can do whatever he wanted to, Like Nick Saban 521 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:26,080 Speaker 1: gets to go in the grocery store first, so he 522 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: can make any meal he wants to, because he can 523 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 1: go get anything off the shelves he wanted to. And 524 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: it was always known in the coaching industry. If he 525 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: were to ever decide to run the kind of offense 526 00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: Hugh Freeze, Rons or Chip Kelly Rod, you can name it, 527 00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:40,320 Speaker 1: whichever one, He'll do it better than them, because he 528 00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,120 Speaker 1: will go hire the most brilliant minds in the game, 529 00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,880 Speaker 1: and he will shift his recruiting philosophy, and he will 530 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:48,720 Speaker 1: shift his competitive and team philosophy. And he did it. 531 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, Alabama was scoring forty 532 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: five every game and the last remaining edge was gone 533 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: because it used to be that huddle up every play 534 00:24:57,080 --> 00:24:59,520 Speaker 1: and they had to execute at a higher level. They 535 00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 1: ran we were plays per game. They were more bunch 536 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: set instead of spread all out over all over the place. 537 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: They did not leverage big time receivers. When they decided 538 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:10,119 Speaker 1: to do that, it took away a lot of the 539 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: remaining edge that some DNC tier teams used to have 540 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,399 Speaker 1: that occasionally they could use to sneak up on Bama 541 00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:19,040 Speaker 1: and beat him with. Now, think about the juncture word 542 00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:23,160 Speaker 1: there a word rarely used on the show, but there's 543 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:27,479 Speaker 1: a program right where Alabama was. Think about where Bama was. 544 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,200 Speaker 1: It was a critical juncture. Nick Saban has since said 545 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:32,479 Speaker 1: as much. He said, I looked around. I saw what 546 00:25:32,560 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: beat us when Manziella was at a and m I 547 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 1: saw what beat us when Marshall was at Auburn. I 548 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:38,639 Speaker 1: saw what beat us when Oklahoma took us down in 549 00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: the Sugar Bowl. I knew we had to do something different, 550 00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: and I did it. That's the best in the game 551 00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 1: telling you my best was no longer good enough. The 552 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: times were changing. The sport never sit still. We had 553 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 1: to evolve, and they did. Nick Saban redefined his program 554 00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,879 Speaker 1: on the fly. He never put Alabama in the shop. 555 00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,120 Speaker 1: There was never a two or three year period where 556 00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:00,680 Speaker 1: they sunk down to eight or nine wins, never had 557 00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,120 Speaker 1: the down year. Their down year was still New year 558 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,400 Speaker 1: six level games. But then what happened When they hit 559 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 1: their next high, it was higher than any high they 560 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 1: had ever hit before. And you watched last year's Alabama team. 561 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:15,040 Speaker 1: You take the twenty twenty BAMA team and put them 562 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,880 Speaker 1: on the same field with twenty eleven or twenty twelve Bama. 563 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: Do you understand what happens? Nick Saban would, He'd never 564 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: tell you, but that's the best team he's ever had. 565 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,919 Speaker 1: These teams now he's putting on the field. They are 566 00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 1: operating at a different level than the teams he had 567 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 1: back in the day. That's exactly where Clemson is. This 568 00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,600 Speaker 1: is the pivot point for Clemson. Clemson is at a 569 00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,919 Speaker 1: place where what they were is stale. They are pond 570 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 1: water and there's nothing fresh coming in. There's no new 571 00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: ideas coming in. It's very closed off. There's no circulation. 572 00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:45,880 Speaker 1: Nick Saban had a lot of tributaries. That's how Lane 573 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,560 Speaker 1: Kiffin rows his boat on into Tuscaloosa, and all of 574 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: a sudden, you've got an injection of fresh ideas, you 575 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:53,639 Speaker 1: got new blood. Nick Saban's been very good about doing that. 576 00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: I don't think Dabo has as much. He found something 577 00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 1: that works, and Dabbo said, I'm not going to change 578 00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,760 Speaker 1: a thing about what worked. That's only sound principle if 579 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,359 Speaker 1: everything around you is static. But this is not a 580 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:08,719 Speaker 1: static environment. College football is always moving, The tides are 581 00:27:08,760 --> 00:27:12,840 Speaker 1: always turning, and everyone's gunning for you. What is Dabos 582 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 1: Swinny gonna do? Because we see what Nick Saban did, 583 00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 1: we see how it paid off. That's the lesson. It's 584 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 1: already been written. You've already seen the results. The question 585 00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 1: for Dabos Swinny at Clemson, is does he have what 586 00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 1: it takes to implement that strategy at Clemson, because it's risky. 587 00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,439 Speaker 1: A lot of these pieces that came out today, they 588 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:33,399 Speaker 1: also included a lot of literature on how uncomfortable it 589 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:38,199 Speaker 1: was and how those two personalities didn't always mesh and 590 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: maybe in order to push a program forward, you don't 591 00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:42,920 Speaker 1: always go out there and find a version of yourself. 592 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: And you know someone that you see when you look 593 00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,119 Speaker 1: in the mirror, not ain'la and Kiffing and Nick Saban, 594 00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:50,080 Speaker 1: not at all. But they're better, each one of them 595 00:27:50,359 --> 00:27:52,640 Speaker 1: for having worked with the other. And so you look 596 00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 1: at Bama and you look at what they did with 597 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,160 Speaker 1: Kiffen and then subsequently when they brought in Steve Sarkisan 598 00:27:57,200 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: and whatnot, and you look at what Daboswinny and clems 599 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,440 Speaker 1: and are right now. That's exactly what they need. Whatever 600 00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:07,320 Speaker 1: that next version of Lane Kiffin's injection is, that's what 601 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 1: colemes In needs right now. Really interesting parallels if you 602 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,320 Speaker 1: think about that a little bit deeper. All right, let's 603 00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 1: wrap the show up with this. We have got countum one, two, three, four, 604 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 1: five's I got seven picks on the Roman Noodle Express 605 00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 1: right now so far, make sure you're tuned in Tomorrow 606 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: night late night. Obviously, the Friday night lines Instagram live 607 00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,600 Speaker 1: chat been going bonkers, doing really good numbers, and those 608 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 1: picks have been doing better than the Romannudal Express, so 609 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 1: we don't want those to cool off. We want to 610 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:37,920 Speaker 1: meet that lofty standard. So what we have right now 611 00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 1: to refresh your memory kent State minus fifteen and a half. 612 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:44,480 Speaker 1: We've got Rice minus two and a half, Penn State 613 00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:47,440 Speaker 1: minus ten and a half, ul Monroe plus thirty four 614 00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: and a half, Kansas State plus ten and a half, 615 00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,959 Speaker 1: and then the two games that we added today Ucla 616 00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 1: minus three, love that one, and Florida and Kentucky a 617 00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: rare total here, but we're taking Gators Cats over fifty five. 618 00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 1: Remember you can find everything on Twitter that happens after 619 00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: this Thursday show calls. This is the last time that 620 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 1: you and I talked before Sunday night, so make sure 621 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: you're following on Twitter and Instagram at late kick, Josh. 622 00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:15,000 Speaker 1: It is imperative because a lot of stuff changes. I 623 00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: can't tell you how much injury information we get, both 624 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:20,840 Speaker 1: publicly and behind the scenes. Some of our biggest wins 625 00:29:20,840 --> 00:29:23,720 Speaker 1: in the past have come on Saturday mornings because of 626 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 1: random text we get, Hey, so and so is not here. 627 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: He's not gonna play. The public will find out in 628 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:30,440 Speaker 1: thirty minutes. Make sure you're following at late kick Josh. 629 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:35,080 Speaker 1: Appreciate so much your ability to tune in our friends 630 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 1: with college football Onlimited dot Com. By the way, this 631 00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 1: is their compound. I'm on a little side set in 632 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 1: their compound, but I appreciate them giving us free rain here. 633 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm it's kind of embarrassing the setup, so 634 00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: I'm not gonna show you, but appreciate the ability to 635 00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 1: do this. I'm home until tomorrow to Tuscaloosa tomorrow night, 636 00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 1: looking very forward to being at the Old Miss Alabama game. 637 00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 1: Remember game days in Athens. SEC Nation is in Tuscaloosa. 638 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 1: I've already gotten copious amounts of you telling me here's 639 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:08,600 Speaker 1: my poster. I'm gonna get you on TV Saturday, so 640 00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 1: much so that I'm starting to get nervous that I 641 00:30:10,600 --> 00:30:13,400 Speaker 1: did not get enough Chali of Supremacy made and we 642 00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 1: may have to issue a second order. But that's okay. 643 00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: That's okay because it's for the best of reasons. So 644 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much for our production team all over 645 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,360 Speaker 1: the place right now, Collins in Nashville, we got our 646 00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,680 Speaker 1: friends down in Fort Lauderdale. We got college football and 647 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:27,959 Speaker 1: women do dot Com here. Thank you so much. Check 648 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 1: their website out by the way, really good stuff there. 649 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: I'm Josh Bate. Have a great start to your weekend. 650 00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, and God bless