WEBVTT - Talking with Joe Consorti 0:00:00.000 --> 0:00:02.560 Hello, and welcome to another episode of the markma Show, 0:00:02.560 --> 0:00:04.480 where we talk about each and every week. We talked 0:00:04.519 --> 0:00:07.360 about the decentralized Revolution. Of course, we're talking about the 0:00:07.360 --> 0:00:10.400 way the world is changing rapidly right before a very eyes, 0:00:10.400 --> 0:00:12.960 and we look at it through the lens of politics, finance, 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:16.120 and technology, those three things coming together and converging. Of course, 0:00:16.440 --> 0:00:19.000 through all of history, it's technology that changes the world 0:00:19.000 --> 0:00:21.759 the most, and of course the technology today is bitcoined 0:00:21.760 --> 0:00:24.880 the decentralized technology. I try to bring to you each 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:27.080 and every week, you know, some education to help you 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:29.440 see things and understand things a little bit better. Of course, 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:31.240 some of the latest breaking news to keep you up 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:33.680 to date because this is a fast moving market, and 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:35.920 of course also bring some of my friends in so 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:38.319 you can listen to some other interesting people besides just 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:40.800 me all the time. And so I am in the 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:43.599 studio right now with Joe Consorti. You can find them 0:00:43.600 --> 0:00:48.279 on Twitter at Joe Consorti. Joe, thanks for joining me absolutely, 0:00:48.280 --> 0:00:52.360 thanks for having me Mark Round to round two. Uh, 0:00:52.440 --> 0:00:54.200 we're we're laughing. We had a little mixed up in 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:56.640 the studio before, so we're getting it going again. But 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.000 if you've been following me on YouTube. Well, first of all, 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:01.720 you're non following me on YouTube? What are you doing? 0:01:02.040 --> 0:01:04.760 Just go to YouTube search Mark Moss and hit that 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:08.160 subscribe button and that bell notification. The algorithm doesn't always 0:01:08.200 --> 0:01:10.000 like what I'm talking about, so, uh, you know, I 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:12.520 need that help. Go hit there, Go check that out. 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.840 And check out Joe on YouTube as well, at the 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:19.280 Bitcoin Layer. And I said that, right, Joe the Bitcoin Layer, Right. Yeah, 0:01:19.319 --> 0:01:20.800 We'll make sure to link that down in the show 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.520 notes below. Joe has been helping me out do some research, 0:01:23.560 --> 0:01:25.480 helping me dig up some charts and graphs and share 0:01:25.520 --> 0:01:27.760 this stuff with you guys on YouTube. He's a wizard 0:01:27.760 --> 0:01:30.440 on those things. So check those out for sure. But Joe, 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:32.840 you know, we we've been going back and forth. We've 0:01:32.840 --> 0:01:34.680 been sharing a bunch of data back and forth. I 0:01:34.680 --> 0:01:36.080 thought would be great for us just to kind of 0:01:36.120 --> 0:01:38.160 like talk about it, discuss it. We haven't really got 0:01:38.160 --> 0:01:39.959 a chance to do that, and why not do it 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:43.840 on the radio here. So a lot going on in 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:47.440 the financial world. Um, you know, I've been doing content 0:01:47.440 --> 0:01:51.160 on YouTube since and I'm sorry, yes, since I started, 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.840 uh kind of writing that bear market when it started 0:01:53.840 --> 0:01:57.000 and by the man, there was like nothing to talk about. 0:01:57.200 --> 0:01:59.240 It was just like dead, you know, and then March 0:02:00.000 --> 0:02:01.880 and then it got really excited again. And that's kind 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:04.680 of where we're still at today. But a couple of 0:02:04.680 --> 0:02:07.800 things that I think, uh that will dive through um 0:02:07.920 --> 0:02:10.080 topics that you and I have talked about extensively. But 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:12.840 maybe let's start with the first one, which is this week, 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.480 everybody was excited, well maybe not everybody, but a lot 0:02:16.520 --> 0:02:18.480 of people are waiting to see what this new CPI, 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:22.280 this new consumer price inflation number was gonna be and 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:26.919 is inflation still going up or is inflation going down? 0:02:27.000 --> 0:02:30.119 And it looks like a year over year it went 0:02:30.160 --> 0:02:32.560 down in month over a month, it went down. What's 0:02:32.600 --> 0:02:35.880 the take on that? Of course, so a lot of 0:02:35.919 --> 0:02:39.840 eyes were on the CPR report coming into the July 0:02:39.919 --> 0:02:43.600 CPR report. Obviously, it gets released in August, and estimates 0:02:43.639 --> 0:02:45.800 were looking at it and saying that it was going 0:02:45.840 --> 0:02:47.840 to decelerate. It was gonna go from nine point one 0:02:47.840 --> 0:02:50.920 in June to eight point seven in July, and it 0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.040 actually fell even further than that, it fell down to 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:56.640 eight point five, which was a huge relief. Um, you know, 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:58.679 looking at what the FETE has been doing. They have 0:02:58.760 --> 0:03:01.240 been raising interest rates at a higher rate of change 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:04.840 than they have since the nineties, and so, you know, 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:08.480 everybody was sort of expecting markets to blow up. People were, 0:03:08.760 --> 0:03:11.560 you know, thinking that they would have to hike even 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:13.799 you know, further than where they are now. But it 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.400 looks like we're already seeing the fruits of the FEDS labor. 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:18.959 It looks like inflation is already coming down and sort 0:03:18.960 --> 0:03:23.600 of responding to all these tightening interest rates across the board. 0:03:24.040 --> 0:03:28.239 Month over month, the biggest driver of the CPI basket, 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:30.760 it's actually energy. So if you take a look at food, 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:34.640 food prices actually increased slightly a month over month. Good 0:03:34.680 --> 0:03:37.960 prices stay the same, uh, services prices stay the same, 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:41.480 but energy dropped, and that that basically made up entirely 0:03:41.600 --> 0:03:46.240 for um the point six per point six percent down shift, 0:03:46.280 --> 0:03:49.600 and cp I was basically entirely energy prices, which is 0:03:49.640 --> 0:03:52.320 good because you know that's sort of what's hurting Americans 0:03:52.360 --> 0:03:54.600 the most. And when when you say energy, you're talking 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:58.480 about gasoline. Yeah for the most part, Yeah, for the 0:03:58.480 --> 0:04:01.000 most oil, but really it's aso and that's what people buy. 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:03.480 People buy gas, they don't buy well, so gas dropped 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:05.840 quite a bit, which, of course after going up by 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.400 those astronomical rates, to get a little bit of a pullback, 0:04:08.480 --> 0:04:10.800 I guess is pretty good. You know, one thing I see, 0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:13.119 like you've seen probably the stickers all over the gas 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:16.120 pumps of Biden saying I did that, right, And so 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:19.159 if like he's out there now saying I did that, 0:04:19.279 --> 0:04:21.200 I lowered gas prices, does that mean he has to 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.080 be your sponsor for gas prices going up to like 0:04:23.120 --> 0:04:25.359 you can't take credit for dropping him if he didn't, 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:26.960 If he doesn't take credit for them going up, right, 0:04:27.760 --> 0:04:30.480 I mean, that's what politicians do. They're they're selective about, 0:04:30.560 --> 0:04:32.599 you know, just about everything. All the bad things that 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:34.240 was the last guy, and then all the good things 0:04:34.240 --> 0:04:37.039 you gotta take credit for. Yeah, right, right. So I 0:04:37.160 --> 0:04:39.520 like to call cp I, which again for those listening, 0:04:39.560 --> 0:04:42.560 is the consumer price index. It's prices going up, you 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:44.480 know how much you pay for as he's as Joe 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:47.880 saying here, gasoline going up, your state going up, and whatever, 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.440 your milk, whatever the stuff is that you buy. Um. 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:52.320 I like to call it instead of CPI, called cp 0:04:52.640 --> 0:04:55.920 LIE because it's like so heavily manipulated and they can 0:04:55.920 --> 0:04:57.839 almost show you whatever they want. And so if you 0:04:57.880 --> 0:04:59.960 dig into that data, a couple of things that look 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:01.920 that kind of stand out to me. One right off 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:04.800 the bat, I actually posted on Twitter earlier today. If 0:05:04.800 --> 0:05:06.080 you're not following me on Twitter, then what are you 0:05:06.080 --> 0:05:08.640 even doing? Check it out at one Mark Moss. That's 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:10.480 just the number one Mark Moss, and check out Joe 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.719 while you're there at Joe CONSORTI UM, but I put 0:05:13.720 --> 0:05:18.160 out on Twitter today. UM, year over year rents are 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:23.120 up on average nationally twenty six point eight percent nationally 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:25.960 in some areas even way higher than that, some some 0:05:26.000 --> 0:05:29.360 as much. UM. That's that's year over year. UM. And 0:05:29.400 --> 0:05:31.359 also there's an article that was out on Bloomberg that 0:05:31.400 --> 0:05:35.440 says that that home that rents are so tight that 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:37.919 it's that I've run about a nineties six or nineties 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:41.400 seven percent occupancy rate. People aren't moving out, Um, They're 0:05:41.440 --> 0:05:44.600 staying where there are, And so we have this crazy 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:49.039 high year over year inflation in rates. Homes are extremely tight, 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:52.000 there's none opening up, and that makes up twenty five 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:57.680 cent of the basket. And I think they showed somewhere 0:05:57.680 --> 0:06:01.719 around like five or six percent for shelter. Do do 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:04.800 you know anything about that, right, Yeah, So when it 0:06:04.839 --> 0:06:07.080 comes to when it comes to like home price inflation 0:06:07.120 --> 0:06:09.680 and these rents, a lot of these are a lot 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:11.480 more I wasn't talking about home price inflation. I was 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:14.760 talking about the rent rent the rent rent price inflation, right, Yeah, 0:06:14.760 --> 0:06:16.279 so a lot of these are more sticky for the 0:06:16.320 --> 0:06:19.040 same exact reason that you mentioned. Um, you know, these 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:21.479 are life's necessities. This is where people live, and so 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:25.160 the likelihood of people moving out and deciding to become homeless, right, 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:28.080 that's sort of the last you know, leg down in 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:30.760 demand instruction that you see. That's sort of the last 0:06:31.320 --> 0:06:34.520 decrease across the board and prices that you see is rent, 0:06:34.880 --> 0:06:37.240 right because people can you know, they can forfeit all 0:06:37.240 --> 0:06:39.320 of their different luxury goods, they can forfeit going out 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:41.520 on the weekends. But you know, it's a lot more 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.039 difficult to find a place, you know, that's cheaper than 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:47.520 the place you're already living. Um for families, that's more difficult, etcetera, etcetera. 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:50.359 And so definitely like the last leg down we're gonna 0:06:50.400 --> 0:06:53.000 see when it comes to this demand destruction, price is 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:55.760 going down across the board. Chances are it's it's it's 0:06:55.800 --> 0:06:58.080 going to be rent that generally lags behind everything else. 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:01.880 M M yeah, I just uh so, so you're absolutely right, 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:04.680 and I think we haven't even seen the worst of 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:06.880 it yet because to your point, it's sticky. So people 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.440 typically sign one to your leases, etcetera. And it's not 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.800 until they move out that they can then raise those rents. 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:13.760 And so we're seeing all across the nation. We're seeing 0:07:14.080 --> 0:07:17.080 um when people move out as a fort increase, you know, 0:07:17.160 --> 0:07:19.320 in a lot of cases, and so a lot of 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:21.440 that will be happening as we go go along. But 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:25.760 I'm just saying we saw almost uh and it's the basket, 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:28.000 but somehow they showed like five percent. So that's why 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:32.080 I call it cp lie um. But that's under this 0:07:32.120 --> 0:07:35.760 new FED guideline of being data dependent right there looking 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:39.040 at that. Another thing they're looking at is the jobs report, 0:07:39.080 --> 0:07:40.360 and you and I we did some work on the 0:07:40.440 --> 0:07:43.240 jobs report, and that number is super manipulated. One of 0:07:43.280 --> 0:07:45.600 the things that people need to know about that is 0:07:45.640 --> 0:07:50.600 that there's well, okay, so how do they get the data? 0:07:51.600 --> 0:07:53.160 Always always look at the data, like where do they 0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:55.520 get the data? So with the with the with the 0:07:55.560 --> 0:07:57.920 rent price, where do they get that data. Will they 0:07:57.960 --> 0:08:00.600 do a survey and they ask homeowners, what do you 0:08:00.680 --> 0:08:02.840 think you could get for your house if you rented 0:08:02.840 --> 0:08:05.240 it out? Well, I don't know who they survey. They 0:08:05.280 --> 0:08:07.800 didn't survey me. And if you look at rent nationally, 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:11.920 you'll see some places a percent, some places went down. So, uh, 0:08:12.040 --> 0:08:13.800 depending on where they get that sample size, they get 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:16.040 a bunch of different answers. UM. Now, going to this 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:20.000 job's data, they also run two surveys right to get 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:24.280 that jobs data. Yeah, absolutely so, I mean there are 0:08:24.320 --> 0:08:27.960 several several different surveys. UM. You know, you have initial 0:08:28.000 --> 0:08:31.280 jobless claims, and then you have unemployment data, UM, non 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:35.120 farm payrolls, all these different things. UM. You know, basically 0:08:35.160 --> 0:08:37.920 all of it is survey data. UM. One of the 0:08:38.040 --> 0:08:41.080 things that was especially surprising about the jobs data that 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:46.000 released this last week, UM was non farm payrolls data. 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:49.320 So unemployment is the tightest it's ever been. Uh, you know, 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:51.520 in the last couple of decades three point five percent. 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.120 It hasn't dipped below three point five percent, and you 0:08:54.160 --> 0:08:56.720 know several decades this has sort of been in the bottom. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.880 And you've got uh, non farm payrolls data coming in 0:09:00.480 --> 0:09:03.920 at over double what the expectation was. And so the 0:09:03.960 --> 0:09:07.720 labor market right now is a lot stronger um, you know, 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:11.040 than than the FED would like. We've or so it seems. 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:13.240 Hold that thought, Joe, we gotta take a break. You're 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:16.160 listening to the Markma Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:18.800 I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. We're talking about 0:09:18.800 --> 0:09:20.520 the FED data and of course we're gonna talk about 0:09:20.559 --> 0:09:22.280 what it means for markets moving forward and what it 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:24.480 means for bitcoin. We've got a lot of ground to 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:26.719 cover in a short amount of time, so you do 0:09:26.760 --> 0:09:28.439 not want to miss this. We're gonna come back finish 0:09:28.480 --> 0:09:31.000 talking about that thought. Um, you're listening to the Markma Show. 0:09:31.040 --> 0:09:33.400 Don't go away, We're gonna be right back. All right, 0:09:33.440 --> 0:09:35.520 Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. We're 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:39.080 talking about the decentralized revolution each and every week. Of course, 0:09:39.240 --> 0:09:41.200 we look at it through the lens of politics, finance, 0:09:41.240 --> 0:09:44.200 and technology. We're talking about the technology of bitcoin, and 0:09:44.200 --> 0:09:47.200 I'm in the studio today with Joe Consorti. We're talking 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:50.600 about the FED UM and so we again politics, finance 0:09:50.640 --> 0:09:53.280 and technology. We're talking about this finance piece specifically right now. 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:56.199 And so Joe, Uh, sorry for the abrupt change into 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.720 the commercial, but you were talking about these non farms 0:09:58.720 --> 0:10:02.720 payroll um reports that came out and how it looked 0:10:02.840 --> 0:10:06.040 like the jobs market is extremely strong, and everybody was 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:09.160 patting themselves on the back over that. Right. Yeah, that's 0:10:09.160 --> 0:10:11.360 exactly right, And and some of these numbers are very 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:14.880 miss leading, especially non farm payrolls. Many people who I 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:17.440 follow have been saying, uh, you know, people like Jeff 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.560 Snyder have been saying that non farm perils have lost 0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:22.679 their credibility through time and taking a look at something 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.600 like Okay, there's a you know, there's a literally non 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.040 farm payrolls were expected to come in with a two 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:29.960 fifty dollar edition. They came in over double that at 0:10:30.000 --> 0:10:33.280 five eight thousand dollars. Uh, you know. But at the 0:10:33.320 --> 0:10:36.120 same time that initial jobless claims are taking higher and 0:10:36.200 --> 0:10:39.560 higher and higher every single month, right. Uh. The you know, 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.040 the biggest report you probably want to keep an eye 0:10:42.040 --> 0:10:44.280 on when it comes to leading indicators is as to 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:47.199 how the job markets doing. Is initial jobless claims and 0:10:47.240 --> 0:10:49.560 continuing claims. You don't want to take a look at, uh, 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:51.319 you know, things like the unemployment rate that lag. You 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:53.200 don't want to take a look at non farm payrolls, 0:10:53.240 --> 0:10:55.520 which have you know, lost their reliability over the last 0:10:55.520 --> 0:10:57.719 decade or so. Um, you really want to look at, 0:10:57.760 --> 0:11:00.480 you know, who is filing for unemployment, who is filing 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:03.080 these initial jobless claims. For me, that's that's sort of 0:11:03.080 --> 0:11:06.400 the highest signal indicator. Um. Of course you'll you'll never 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:09.400 hear the people in the mainstream highlight that, but as 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:10.959 of right now, you know, it's been taking up pretty 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:14.679 steadily since March. Yeah, so what I want to really 0:11:14.720 --> 0:11:17.599 get to is if the FED is being data dependent 0:11:17.840 --> 0:11:20.600 because everybody unfortunately I had uh I think I talked 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:22.640 about on the radio a couple of weeks ago, which, 0:11:22.679 --> 0:11:24.400 by the way, if you missed, you can always catch 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:28.280 my back episodes on the podcast. Just search Mark Mosh podcast. 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:30.880 You can find it on any podcast player. But I 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:32.960 I kind of talked about how insane it was for 0:11:33.040 --> 0:11:34.880 us to sit there and watch the FED to come 0:11:34.880 --> 0:11:36.680 out and tell us what the price of money will be, 0:11:37.120 --> 0:11:39.800 and how it's almost as insane as trying to watch 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:42.080 some groundhog come out of the ground and tell us 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:43.840 what the weather is going to be. But yeah, here 0:11:43.880 --> 0:11:45.600 we are and so everybody wants to hang on the 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:47.160 word of the Fed. What are they going to do? 0:11:47.640 --> 0:11:49.920 And so looking at those two data points that the 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:53.960 inflation rate, the CPI and now, so we have lower inflation, 0:11:54.000 --> 0:11:56.760 which is what they want. They're they're making positive progress 0:11:56.800 --> 0:11:59.679 down UM, which would then make you think maybe they 0:11:59.720 --> 0:12:03.600 could ease off of their tightening program. We'll call it 0:12:03.640 --> 0:12:06.880 that raising rates UM. But then but then we also 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:10.400 have this strong jobs report which is manipulated and we 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:13.560 believe it's false, but they've got it, which then gives 0:12:13.600 --> 0:12:16.640 them room to increase. So we kind of have these 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:19.680 two different data points that let them now go either way. 0:12:19.800 --> 0:12:23.439 Now we're kind of like inconclusive. Almost Yeah, that's exactly right. 0:12:23.480 --> 0:12:26.440 So I actually, and this is the benefit of of 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:30.559 writing your your newsletter literally the day as the economic 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:32.640 releases come out, because I was writing a newsletter before 0:12:32.679 --> 0:12:36.160 the end, before CPI came out about how the feds 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.640 runway was extended because with a strong jobs market, if 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:41.960 their goal is detain inflation and the jobs market is 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:44.480 extremely strong, then they got the green light to extend 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:47.800 their hiking runway. You know, well passed three, well passed 0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:50.439 neutral under restrictive territory. That gives them the green light. 0:12:50.760 --> 0:12:54.000 But then with the CPI release coming in lower than anticipated, 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.200 that gives them the red light because it shows that 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.120 they're tightening is working. There's no real need to continue 0:12:59.160 --> 0:13:02.400 slamming on the yeah, if inflation is already decelerating, right, 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.599 So you know, it's sort of this, it's this, it's this, 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.360 it's this odd game. At the same time, with the 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.960 strong labor market, they can continue tightening, but with fighting inflation, 0:13:10.200 --> 0:13:13.199 they can't tighten too much. Deflation is already accelerating, and 0:13:13.200 --> 0:13:15.719 the last thing they want is deflation. The last thing 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.000 they want to do is go too far and send 0:13:18.000 --> 0:13:21.920 markets into a huge deflation. Are deflation? Are eavent? So? Um? 0:13:21.960 --> 0:13:26.960 I did a video reason I'm um, maybe it was free. 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:28.360 I do so many of them. But I was talking 0:13:28.360 --> 0:13:33.360 about the difference of deflation versus disinflation. And so that's 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:34.920 two words that are thrown around a lot of people. 0:13:35.000 --> 0:13:36.960 You don't understand what they are. But deflation is the 0:13:37.000 --> 0:13:40.520 opposite of inflation. So inflation now, first of all, I 0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:43.720 reject the definition of inflation. Inflation is the monetary supply 0:13:43.920 --> 0:13:46.599 going up. That's the Austrian definition of it. Trying to 0:13:46.679 --> 0:13:48.720 use that as consumer prices going up is a little 0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:51.880 bit wrong. But anyway, Um, if if inflation is consumer 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:54.000 prices going up, then deflation would be the opposite, which 0:13:54.040 --> 0:13:59.319 is prices going down, whereas disinflation is still having inflation 0:13:59.360 --> 0:14:02.760 but as slow or rate. And so what we're seeing 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:05.560 right now is disinflation. Instead of going up at nine 0:14:05.559 --> 0:14:08.800 point one percent, it's down to eight point five. But 0:14:09.000 --> 0:14:12.760 nothing goes up and down in a straight line. So uh, 0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:16.720 A lot of people are asking the question has inflation peaked? Um, 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.960 what do you say about that? Of course, so for 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:24.000 me potential and and I guess I should say, I 0:14:24.000 --> 0:14:26.080 should say over what time frame? You always have to 0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:28.200 ask that question today. Has it peaked for this year 0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:31.240 as it peaked for this this decade? Yeah? For me, 0:14:31.320 --> 0:14:33.560 I think it's I think it's it's peaked this year, 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:35.320 or at least for this cycle. The reason I say 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.680 that is because, um, energy is what's really what really 0:14:38.760 --> 0:14:42.280 drove these these increases. And of course when you're making goods, 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:44.680 energy is an input in that. And so basically taking 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:47.320 a look at commodities, especially commodities that are used in 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:49.960 end products, talk about copper, A lot you and I 0:14:50.040 --> 0:14:53.240 have talked about copper before because it's used as an 0:14:53.280 --> 0:14:54.920 input in so many end products. You can sort of 0:14:54.960 --> 0:14:56.840 look at this as the bell weather of Okay, our 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.240 our price is going to increase across the border, decrease 0:14:59.280 --> 0:15:02.600 across the boarding. That's gonna look like. And since June, 0:15:03.200 --> 0:15:06.600 copperas fell very precipitously. I don't know the exact percentage, 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:09.680 but it's it's really fallen off of its highs. And 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:12.280 so what that tells me is, Okay, if a lot 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:15.400 of this inflation that we've seen since the start of 0:15:16.120 --> 0:15:20.080 one has been driven by huge increases in energy energy prices, 0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.800 which in my mind, you know, that's that's a supply issue, 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.000 and we're starting to see the commodities that caused that, 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:28.640 um consumer price inflation to come down that I think 0:15:28.640 --> 0:15:31.960 that's leading and telling me personally that yeah, for now, 0:15:32.080 --> 0:15:35.480 consumer price inflation this year has peaked and is headed 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:38.280 back down. Mm hmm. Now I do want to make 0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:39.960 a note again. I put this on Twitter the other 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:41.960 day to again follow me on Twitter at one Mark 0:15:42.040 --> 0:15:45.280 Moss and follow Joe at Joe CONSORTI um, but I 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:47.760 put on Twitter, I said, they just remember for everyone 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:51.240 who's not not so sure. Uh, just if inflation comes 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:53.960 down from eight points eight point five now to five 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:57.480 point five, doesn't mean prices that's the disinflation versus deflation. 0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.320 Doesn't mean prices are coming back down. It means they're 0:15:59.320 --> 0:16:04.160 still going up, just at a just at a slower rate. Um, 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.360 I might I might agree with that. I think maybe 0:16:06.400 --> 0:16:10.200 we've seen the height of inflation for this cycle, although 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:12.760 like I said, it's like completely false anyway, because to 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:16.040 the point of I made of of of the shelter category, 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:20.720 which is of the basket is up by and we 0:16:20.760 --> 0:16:23.760 also saw foods up ten percent, So I mean, like, 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:28.800 how is food up ten percent? Shelters up? But somehow 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:31.280 gas brought it all the back down. So anyway, it 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:33.320 is what it is. But um, i'd think maybe maybe 0:16:33.400 --> 0:16:35.040 for the rest of this year we might see that. 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:37.360 But I've also gone out and said that I think 0:16:37.600 --> 0:16:39.400 this might be some of the lowest inflation we see 0:16:39.400 --> 0:16:42.240 for the decade. And so back to this kind of 0:16:42.240 --> 0:16:44.040 nothing goes up and down in a straight line. I think, 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.640 you know, we're we're we're retreating, but I think we're 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:48.440 still going to go higher over over time. I think 0:16:48.440 --> 0:16:49.640 it's the only way. I don't know, what do you 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.560 think about that potentially? I mean there are two narratives. 0:16:52.600 --> 0:16:55.720 There's this narrative of you know, this consumer price inflation 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:59.400 sort of on like this endless path to infinity because 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:01.240 you know, high for inflation is the only way. We 0:17:01.280 --> 0:17:03.600 have way too much debt right now. Um, if you 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:06.840 take a look, if you plot uh gross domestic product 0:17:06.880 --> 0:17:11.320 against all of publicly held liabilities, you can see, okay, 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:13.399 So so our debt that we have to pay interest 0:17:13.480 --> 0:17:17.600 on is climbing rapidly. In our GDPs is not even 0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:20.199 remotely close. So there's this school of thought that we 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.040 have too much data as of right now. The only 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.720 way out is through this implicit default of of printing 0:17:24.720 --> 0:17:27.080 in order to pay for it. There's that school of thought. 0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:28.800 And then there's a school of thought that the inflation 0:17:28.840 --> 0:17:32.679 we're seeing now isn't necessarily the It is, of course 0:17:32.720 --> 0:17:35.119 the sim that I'll be better in my words, the 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.920 consumer price inflation we're seeing now, um might be partially 0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.359 the symptom of you know, injecting the economy with fourteen shilling, 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:45.520 but also partially supply driven. And I think you know, 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:47.520 we were going to see some relief and cp I 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:50.719 purely because that supply driven component seems to be alleviated 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:52.880 for the time being. But I think in the long run, 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.320 um the you know, the debt levels is going to 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:57.400 be a real concern and I think, you know, one 0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.960 of the ways out will be through this continued implay 0:18:00.080 --> 0:18:02.320 and default of inflating the money. So we're gonna talk 0:18:02.359 --> 0:18:04.800 about that because we've got some some discussion there when 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:06.119 we get back in a second. You're listening to the 0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.280 Mark ma Show. I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.840 We're talking about the decentralized revolution, politics, finance and technology 0:18:11.880 --> 0:18:14.400 coming together and bitcoin. We've got a lot more to discuss. 0:18:14.560 --> 0:18:17.000 Don't go away, I'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:18.920 You are listening to the Mark Mos Show. If you're 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:21.159 just tuning in, I'm in the studio right now with 0:18:21.240 --> 0:18:23.880 Joe Consorti. You can find them on Twitter at Joe Consorti. 0:18:23.960 --> 0:18:26.320 Of course I am at one Mark Moss And of course, 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:29.399 as always, we're talking about the world changing right before 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:31.760 our very eyes, as we swing, as the pendulum swings 0:18:31.800 --> 0:18:35.359 from centralization to decentralization. We are in the middle of 0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:38.720 a decentralized revolution that will chart out over the next 0:18:38.760 --> 0:18:42.080 hundred two hundred years UM. So before we took the break, 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:44.000 we were talking about has inflation peaked or will it 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.440 go higher? The question that you always have to ask 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:49.280 is over what time frame bonds are horrible, bonds are great? 0:18:49.320 --> 0:18:51.879 Well over what time frame you know, UM, And so 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:53.800 you're gonna have to look at that like bullish on 0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.560 bitcoin or barrass on bitcoin, Well over what time frame? UM? 0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:59.639 And so if as I believe that we're in this 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.280 d centralized revolution, so the pendulum swings on tune and 0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:04.800 fifty year time frame, and we've maxed out centralization. And 0:19:04.800 --> 0:19:08.119 what we've seen is that over the last really you know, 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:12.720 hundred years, maybe more spectically fifty years UM, we've had 0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.119 massive inflation as an Austrian definition of increase in the 0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:20.560 money supply, which is inflationary more money chasing, limited goods UM. 0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.200 To offset that, in the United States specifically, but most 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.520 of the developed world, the West, we've off shored all 0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.600 of our manufacturing, all of our high paying jobs. So 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:31.640 now job is eight thousand dollars offshore or hundred dollar 0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:33.760 parts Now eight bucks, you know, made off shore, and 0:19:33.800 --> 0:19:37.840 so We've had this deflation because we've been able to globalize. 0:19:38.520 --> 0:19:42.520 But if the world starts to deglobalize, which is already 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:44.960 happening and I believe will continue to happen, and we 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:47.520 have to now on shore those jobs again and on 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:50.240 shore that manufacturing again, which again is already happening. They 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.080 see this with the with the chip manufacturing, and even 0:19:53.119 --> 0:19:55.560 with mining and things like that. Even the US is 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:58.120 sourcing out lithium I'm sorry, uranium in the US. We're 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:01.040 starting to see all this happening. So that continues to happen, 0:20:01.400 --> 0:20:04.320 all of the benefits of the globalism and the deflation 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:07.120 will then reverse and then we'll have inflation. So that's 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:09.280 kind of my statement on that. I don't know if 0:20:09.359 --> 0:20:11.520 if you have a comment on that, of course, yeah, 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:13.280 I think what you know, bringing a lot of these 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:15.920 industries back to the United States and in d globalizing, 0:20:15.920 --> 0:20:18.280 we're definitely on the track to that. You're seeing what 0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:21.080 happens when you have too much dependence on one entity. 0:20:21.160 --> 0:20:23.880 You're seeing it in Europe, and you know proliferates everywhere else, 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:27.080 um you know, in in several other nations, and obviously 0:20:27.160 --> 0:20:29.640 that is inherently inflationary. And it's a type of inflation 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:31.960 that is more entrenched as well. It's a type of 0:20:31.960 --> 0:20:34.439 inflation that doesn't just go away like uh, you know, 0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.119 consumer driven inflation or CPI inflation that you can just 0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:39.760 you know, get away with the snap of a finger, 0:20:39.840 --> 0:20:42.760 with a with a little bit of demand destruction. Um, yeah, No, 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.280 I definitely agree with you there. Yeah, And and you 0:20:45.280 --> 0:20:48.000 know again, I mean the reason why I reject the 0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.200 prices going up is because there's there's trillions of prices, 0:20:51.480 --> 0:20:54.119 and there's trillions of reasons why those prices could go 0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.760 up on certain things or down. Like Walmart now is 0:20:57.800 --> 0:20:59.800 trying to change over their inventory. They realized they bought 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:01.719 all the wrong inventory. Now they want to get rid 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:03.160 of a lot of their durable goods and they want 0:21:03.160 --> 0:21:05.400 to move back to kind of consumer staples for example. 0:21:05.560 --> 0:21:07.720 And the CEO announced that they're gonna basically fire sell 0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:09.880 all the inventories just to clear it out. So like, well, 0:21:09.880 --> 0:21:12.239 the prices just got marked out on that, Like that 0:21:12.320 --> 0:21:14.200 wasn't on the BINGO card, Like I didn't. I didn't 0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:16.440 expect that prices will go down because they overbought and 0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:18.280 run category and they need to fire sell it, right, 0:21:18.520 --> 0:21:21.359 So like there's a trillion prices, there's a trillion reasons 0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:23.600 why prices could go up or down on any of 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:28.240 those trillion things. Um, Which again it's a little bit crazy, 0:21:28.320 --> 0:21:30.560 but again they try to classify in two areas. Right, So, 0:21:30.760 --> 0:21:35.560 demand pull or cost push. So when the costs go 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:37.840 up to the points that you made about commodities, when 0:21:37.960 --> 0:21:39.680 when the cost to get the commodities out of the ground, 0:21:39.760 --> 0:21:42.879 the commodities goes up, transportation all that those pushed the 0:21:42.920 --> 0:21:45.640 cost of costs of things up. And then there's demand pull. 0:21:45.640 --> 0:21:47.760 When there's too much demand, then it pulls the price 0:21:47.840 --> 0:21:50.440 up as well on the cost push side. And back 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:54.000 to the jobs report. Um, if the Fed seems to 0:21:54.040 --> 0:21:57.080 be trying to crush demand, which is basically what they're 0:21:57.080 --> 0:21:58.800 trying to do, They've they've said it, I've talked about 0:21:58.800 --> 0:22:01.359 it many times. They want to crush the stock market 0:22:01.400 --> 0:22:04.040 asset prices to kind of do this reverse wealth effects, 0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:07.760 we don't spend as much money. Um. Would you, first 0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:09.159 of all, would you agree that that they I mean 0:22:09.160 --> 0:22:12.920 they said that right there, trying to demand crush demand, right? So, Um, 0:22:13.040 --> 0:22:14.719 then you have this job support that came out very 0:22:14.720 --> 0:22:19.880 strong and actually wages went up by zero. So wages 0:22:19.960 --> 0:22:22.919 going up is actually the opposite of what they want, 0:22:23.520 --> 0:22:27.600 because wages going up leads to inflation. So it almost 0:22:27.640 --> 0:22:30.600 seems like the Fed, what the Fed and the government 0:22:30.680 --> 0:22:34.560 want is for our wages to actually go down, which 0:22:34.600 --> 0:22:37.400 is the opposite of what we the people would want. 0:22:38.320 --> 0:22:40.320 That's right, Yeah, in order to I mean we talk 0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:45.920 about this demand demand pull inflation in when we had 0:22:45.960 --> 0:22:49.640 all this fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now is not only 0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:52.080 is the labor market rip roaring, but everybody has all 0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:54.520 of this income to go out and spend it um 0:22:54.640 --> 0:22:58.040 and so that was a component alongside these supply shocks 0:22:58.080 --> 0:23:00.840 which led to this multi decade high and inflation. Now, 0:23:01.200 --> 0:23:03.680 what will continue to allow this to happen a strong 0:23:03.800 --> 0:23:06.879 labor market. Right, if the labor market continues being strong, 0:23:07.359 --> 0:23:10.320 then you know, inflation may stay entrenched. And so what 0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:12.720 the Feed is looking for is the reason they're doing 0:23:12.720 --> 0:23:15.440 this so aggressively is partially to break the back in 0:23:15.520 --> 0:23:17.719 the labor market, to increase the amount of people who 0:23:17.760 --> 0:23:20.480 are out destitute on the street. Uh. And so taking 0:23:20.480 --> 0:23:23.200 a look at a strong labor market with like you mentioned, 0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:25.360 average hour only Erney's going up month over month point 0:23:25.440 --> 0:23:28.480 five percent year over year five point two percent. That's huge. 0:23:28.880 --> 0:23:32.800 Wage price inflation is one of the parts of inflation 0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:34.080 that they hate the most, and that's one of the 0:23:34.080 --> 0:23:36.840 ones that they're targeting with this. That's let me just 0:23:36.920 --> 0:23:40.199 let me just reiterate what Joe said there. The wage 0:23:40.240 --> 0:23:43.520 price inflation is the one they hate the most. So 0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:47.639 that means your pay going up is what they hate 0:23:47.680 --> 0:23:49.880 the most. That's what they have to stop. So, um, 0:23:50.040 --> 0:23:53.359 the prices of goods are going up. Congratulations, there they 0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:55.480 went down. Inflation slowed a little bit, so now it's 0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:57.400 only going to buy eight point five percent, but your 0:23:57.440 --> 0:24:01.280 pay went up by zero point five So that means 0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:03.239 that your cost of living is going up with your 0:24:03.240 --> 0:24:06.000 pay isn't keeping up. So you know, that means that 0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:10.280 that that your quality of life goes down. That means 0:24:10.280 --> 0:24:13.159 you buy less things. At eight point five percent, that 0:24:13.200 --> 0:24:15.760 means on the average, the average American it costs him 0:24:15.800 --> 0:24:20.200 about three dollars per month to have the exact same 0:24:20.320 --> 0:24:22.600 lifestyle they had the month before. So if you make 0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:26.119 thirty two dollars an hour, that's ten extra hours in 0:24:26.160 --> 0:24:27.800 the month you have to work just to have the 0:24:27.840 --> 0:24:30.400 exact same lifestyle. That you had the month before. Those 0:24:30.400 --> 0:24:32.000 are ten hours that you could have spent with your 0:24:32.000 --> 0:24:34.360 wife or your kids. Ten hours you could have spent 0:24:34.359 --> 0:24:36.040 in the gym with Joe. I know Joe loves to 0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:38.240 be in the gym. Ten hours you could have been 0:24:38.240 --> 0:24:41.359 going to school to increase your education, to start aside business. 0:24:41.840 --> 0:24:46.320 That's your life that's been stolen because of the inflation. 0:24:46.359 --> 0:24:49.679 It's that insane. All right, Let's let's reframe this a 0:24:49.720 --> 0:24:52.760 little bit, Joe. Um, because other than a couple of 0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:55.240 nerds like me and you, Um, what the heck do 0:24:55.320 --> 0:24:59.960 most people care about CPI? Right? What does that mean? 0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:01.840 They know that prices went up, like that's all they 0:25:01.880 --> 0:25:04.560 really care about, or probably more people that are tuned 0:25:04.600 --> 0:25:06.480 into this. They they're trying to figure out where the 0:25:06.520 --> 0:25:10.480 market is going because markets are forward looking, right, so um, 0:25:10.600 --> 0:25:13.719 discounting mechanisms as they're called, Right, So what does this 0:25:13.800 --> 0:25:18.879 mean for my retirement account, my stocks, my my house, 0:25:18.960 --> 0:25:23.359 my assets? Based off of this information? Does the Fed? Uh? 0:25:23.680 --> 0:25:26.199 Does the FED have this more neutral position? And now 0:25:26.280 --> 0:25:28.760 maybe there's this soft landing they're able to kind of 0:25:28.800 --> 0:25:31.680 thread the needle to like maybe their backs aren't as 0:25:31.800 --> 0:25:36.200 forced as people thought. They were, so potentially that's coming 0:25:36.200 --> 0:25:39.000 off of the CPI report, especially, we saw a lot 0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:42.120 of moves in forward looking interest rate markets. And I'll 0:25:42.119 --> 0:25:44.040 explain this in a way that that makes it so like, 0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:46.200 you know, why should you care about all of this? Well, 0:25:46.440 --> 0:25:49.000 what the Fed is doing right now is they're they're essentially, 0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:51.840 in the simplest terms, they're removing liquidity from the economy 0:25:51.880 --> 0:25:55.119 by making it more expensive to borrow um you know, 0:25:55.160 --> 0:25:57.400 at in in very lay in terms, and so one 0:25:57.440 --> 0:25:59.760 of the things more extensive to borrow by pushing their 0:26:00.240 --> 0:26:05.160 straight higher. Yes, And so basically there are these futures markets, 0:26:05.240 --> 0:26:08.440 particularly federal funds futures, which let you take a look 0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:10.679 at the market is pricing in that the Fed is 0:26:10.720 --> 0:26:15.320 going to do basically, and so Fed funds futures originally 0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:18.159 they were at a much higher terminal rates, so they 0:26:18.160 --> 0:26:20.240 were predicting the Fed would have to hike much higher 0:26:20.640 --> 0:26:23.720 uh and that it would be much further out. So 0:26:23.800 --> 0:26:25.320 not only would would it be a higher terminal rate, 0:26:25.320 --> 0:26:27.000 but it will be a slow grind to get there. 0:26:27.200 --> 0:26:29.679 And now with the CPI report, basically the markets are 0:26:29.680 --> 0:26:33.560 saying the Fed is looking at slowing consumer price inflation 0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:38.160 and they're understanding that to some extent, they're cooling the economy, 0:26:38.160 --> 0:26:40.720 which is what they want. And so interest rate futures 0:26:40.720 --> 0:26:43.280 markets are telling us now that they're going to be 0:26:43.320 --> 0:26:46.520 able to get to three point five percent roughly as 0:26:46.520 --> 0:26:48.639 a terminal rate. Right now, we're at two and a 0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:51.720 half percent FED funds and that terminal rate will be 0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:55.280 reached late this year or Q one next year, which 0:26:55.280 --> 0:26:58.040 means as of right now. Because markets are forward looking, 0:26:58.400 --> 0:27:00.719 risk markets are forward looking. There taking a look at 0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:04.240 what these futures markets are saying because rates are also 0:27:04.359 --> 0:27:08.280 forward looking. But essentially the reason risk assets have bottomed 0:27:08.280 --> 0:27:12.000 and they've risen, the NASDAC is up sixteen from the lows. 0:27:12.160 --> 0:27:13.960 The reason bitcoin seems to be catching a bit of 0:27:14.000 --> 0:27:17.199 a bid is because the markets are understanding that the 0:27:17.240 --> 0:27:20.640 FED is going to pause late this year early next year, 0:27:20.840 --> 0:27:22.840 and that's what the data is saying. I'm not making 0:27:22.840 --> 0:27:25.600 outlandage predictionous that are, you know, not based on data. 0:27:25.880 --> 0:27:28.320 The reason let's let's let's hold let's let's hold that 0:27:28.359 --> 0:27:29.920 thought right there, and then I want to come back 0:27:29.960 --> 0:27:32.320 and let's we'll talk about bitcoins specifically. You said it's 0:27:32.359 --> 0:27:34.720 catching a bid. There was something from a Bloomberg analyst. 0:27:34.800 --> 0:27:36.240 I came out today that I want to talk about 0:27:36.280 --> 0:27:38.640 as well, Um, and so we'll come back with more. 0:27:38.680 --> 0:27:40.199 You're listening to the Mark ma Show. Of course, we're 0:27:40.200 --> 0:27:42.320 talking about the decentralized Revolution. I'm in the studio with 0:27:42.400 --> 0:27:45.000 Joe CONSORTI. Check them out on Twitter at Joe Consorti. 0:27:45.480 --> 0:27:47.400 We got a whole lot to cover when I come back. 0:27:47.720 --> 0:27:50.200 Don't go away, We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. 0:27:50.240 --> 0:27:52.240 You are listening to the Mark Moa show where we 0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:54.879 talk about each and every week the decentralized revolution, the 0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:57.560 way the world is changing right before our very eyes 0:27:57.600 --> 0:28:00.320 through the lens of politics, finance, and tech not ology. 0:28:00.320 --> 0:28:04.600 Of course, that technology being Bitcoin, the decentralized revolution technology. 0:28:04.800 --> 0:28:06.960 I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti and Um, Joey, 0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:08.800 I kind of cut you off. Um, you were talking 0:28:08.840 --> 0:28:13.240 about the way that No. Now the market sort of 0:28:13.240 --> 0:28:16.119 thinks the FED will probably raise into next year, and 0:28:16.280 --> 0:28:20.320 risk on assets, or I should say risk risk on 0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:22.600 assets are starting to catch a bid. Bitcoin has been 0:28:22.600 --> 0:28:25.080 catching a bid. It's up from well as low as 0:28:25.119 --> 0:28:27.639 seventeen thousand now too. I think about twenty four is 0:28:28.119 --> 0:28:33.600 um range um. And so the NASDAC is also pumping 0:28:33.640 --> 0:28:35.560 back up, which is also one of those risk on assets. 0:28:35.600 --> 0:28:37.320 So you're starting to see that it is coming back 0:28:37.320 --> 0:28:39.080 to life. UM. I think a question a lot of 0:28:39.080 --> 0:28:44.719 people are asking, um, we're back into bull market territory 0:28:45.080 --> 0:28:47.200 that we were. We went went into bear market therey, 0:28:47.200 --> 0:28:50.120 now we're supposedly we're back into bull market territory. Um. 0:28:50.240 --> 0:28:53.120 Is this one of those just deep bull bear market 0:28:54.000 --> 0:28:57.000 fake outs? So in my purview though, it is, and 0:28:57.160 --> 0:29:00.400 I think we you know, probabilistically, of course, there is 0:29:00.400 --> 0:29:04.920 a scenario where, you know, probably probabilistically that's the key word. Yes, 0:29:05.000 --> 0:29:06.840 he says, we can never be definitive. You know, we 0:29:06.840 --> 0:29:09.560 always got to give both scenarios. There's a situation right 0:29:09.560 --> 0:29:12.040 now where the FED comes out later this August Rum 0:29:12.080 --> 0:29:14.400 Powell is going to do some forward guidance. He's speaking 0:29:14.400 --> 0:29:17.440 at Jackson Hole. UM. And there there is a scenario 0:29:17.480 --> 0:29:20.320 where he says, labor markets too strong. Right now, the 0:29:20.400 --> 0:29:24.720 market's interpreting our our you know, our FED speak as dubbish. 0:29:24.720 --> 0:29:26.920 We're not dubbish. We're we're committed to going to three 0:29:27.040 --> 0:29:29.360 five and beyond. If that happens, then you know, this 0:29:29.440 --> 0:29:31.680 is a bear market rally and risk you's a little bit. 0:29:31.880 --> 0:29:35.920 But if you know, let's say, uh, September, CPI again 0:29:36.000 --> 0:29:39.120 comes in low fed speak is dubbish once again, then 0:29:39.240 --> 0:29:41.440 you know we could see again a pause late this 0:29:41.520 --> 0:29:43.720 year early next year. And that's what that's what rates 0:29:43.720 --> 0:29:46.400 markets are telling us. So I'm leaning towards the ladder 0:29:46.400 --> 0:29:48.520 where this is more of a trend shift towards risk 0:29:48.600 --> 0:29:51.040 on than a bear market rally. But of course, you know, 0:29:51.120 --> 0:29:55.040 we we've always you got to be probabilistic about these things. Now, 0:29:55.080 --> 0:29:57.640 bitcoin has been trading like a risk on asset. It's 0:29:57.680 --> 0:30:00.400 basically been moving just like almost in lock step. Um. 0:30:00.400 --> 0:30:03.920 Correlated with the nasdack. Um. You know, we've talked about 0:30:03.920 --> 0:30:06.280 this quite a bit. But Um, there was an article 0:30:06.360 --> 0:30:10.520 I saw of there was a Bloomberg analyst that came 0:30:10.560 --> 0:30:14.280 out and said that he thinks that bitcoin is likely 0:30:14.320 --> 0:30:18.320 to transition to a risk off asset at the second 0:30:18.360 --> 0:30:23.719 half of two. He said it's a likely rally. Bitcoin 0:30:23.760 --> 0:30:27.240 will likely rally alongside golden treasury bonds. According to Michael Glone, 0:30:27.240 --> 0:30:30.640 a senior commodity strategy at Bloomberg. UM, what do you 0:30:30.640 --> 0:30:34.920 say about that? So over at the Bitcoin Lair on 0:30:34.960 --> 0:30:37.000 YouTube and on substack. One of the things that I 0:30:37.080 --> 0:30:40.360 talked about three or four weeks ago was bitcoin tracking 0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:43.520 very closely with global liquidity and sort of moving in 0:30:43.560 --> 0:30:47.200 and out with global liquidity. Um. One of the way 0:30:47.200 --> 0:30:50.360 that bitcoin is traded by the guys with all the money, right, 0:30:50.400 --> 0:30:52.200 you know, we we like to think that that you 0:30:52.280 --> 0:30:54.400 and I trade inside and we moved the bitcoin price, 0:30:54.400 --> 0:30:57.080 but we don't. Ultimately, it's these huge funds that are trading. 0:30:57.120 --> 0:30:59.400 We call that. We call that the difference of dumb money, 0:30:59.440 --> 0:31:01.560 which is Joe and I and you whoever is listening, 0:31:01.600 --> 0:31:03.560 and then the smart money that's the big money. Right, 0:31:03.960 --> 0:31:06.360 that's right. And so right now, this is sort of 0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:10.240 an informational arbitrage. You and I see bitcoin as debasement insurance, 0:31:10.440 --> 0:31:13.480 where we understand that you know, this, this FIAT system 0:31:13.480 --> 0:31:15.800 is sort of program to, you know, debase because of 0:31:15.800 --> 0:31:20.000 our debtloads and FIA and bitcoin is absolutely fixed, programmatically scarce. 0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:23.440 So we understand it as debasement insurance. Big funds don't 0:31:23.440 --> 0:31:25.800 trade it that way yet, and so there's this informational 0:31:25.880 --> 0:31:27.880 arbitrage that we've been able to catch on for the 0:31:27.960 --> 0:31:30.480 last twelve years. The bitcoin is how a price subscribed 0:31:30.520 --> 0:31:33.320 to it. But the reason that tide might start to 0:31:33.440 --> 0:31:37.000 change is you start to see institutions coming into the 0:31:37.040 --> 0:31:41.160 mix and potentially viewing bitcoin, uh, you know, as something 0:31:41.200 --> 0:31:43.480 they like to allocate to as well. You saw black 0:31:43.560 --> 0:31:46.400 Rock partner up with coin based specifically to offer not 0:31:46.520 --> 0:31:50.560 crypto bitcoin to your clients through private trust, and so 0:31:50.880 --> 0:31:53.360 I think it's a key peace right there, not crypto bitcoin. 0:31:53.720 --> 0:31:57.080 That's exactly right. I think through time that window will 0:31:57.080 --> 0:31:59.320 close and bitcoin will transition into a risk of asset 0:31:59.320 --> 0:32:02.239 because ultimately more people are going to catch on. Uh 0:32:02.280 --> 0:32:04.640 you know, one of the end games is highly inflationary 0:32:04.680 --> 0:32:06.600 for the dollar, and I think over time, more people 0:32:06.600 --> 0:32:08.880 are gonna catch on that bitcoin is the solution to that. 0:32:09.120 --> 0:32:11.720 And slowly but surely that gap is starting to change 0:32:11.720 --> 0:32:14.920 from bitcoin being risk on to bitcoin being risk off. Yeah, 0:32:15.000 --> 0:32:16.920 I would agree. And one thing that you said I 0:32:16.960 --> 0:32:19.560 think is super crucial for everyone to grasp onto is 0:32:19.600 --> 0:32:25.280 that our informational arbitrage and so um, you always need 0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:27.440 to have an edge. If you want to compete in sports, 0:32:27.600 --> 0:32:29.680 or you want to compete in business, or you want 0:32:29.680 --> 0:32:32.000 to compete in and investing, you have to have an edge, right, 0:32:32.480 --> 0:32:34.360 one little thing that makes you better in one area 0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:37.080 than somebody else. If you don't know what you're investing edges, 0:32:37.160 --> 0:32:39.880 that means you don't have one. And what what I 0:32:39.880 --> 0:32:42.160 think Joe is referring to is as information arbitrage. Is 0:32:42.240 --> 0:32:44.080 Joe and I we spent a lot of time studying bitcoin, 0:32:44.120 --> 0:32:46.800 and so we have an edge. We see what bitcoin 0:32:47.160 --> 0:32:49.920 is or could become, while most people don't, and so 0:32:49.960 --> 0:32:51.600 that gives us a little bit of an edge or 0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:54.680 an advantage there. And so that just think about that, 0:32:54.760 --> 0:32:57.520 and I would agree with you, Joe. I mean, I think, Um, 0:32:57.560 --> 0:32:59.520 to your point, we've already seen it as that. And 0:32:59.600 --> 0:33:01.560 to the one of this Bloomberg analyst, he's saying the 0:33:01.560 --> 0:33:05.760 same thing, UM that in a severe recession, bitcoin will 0:33:05.800 --> 0:33:08.840 shine and people start to see that it's this um 0:33:09.120 --> 0:33:11.240 risk off asset moving from risk on risk off, and 0:33:11.320 --> 0:33:13.320 I say, it's it's been trading like a NASDAC stock, 0:33:13.720 --> 0:33:16.320 but it's not that. Um. One more thing I want 0:33:16.320 --> 0:33:18.280 to talk about. We have a couple minutes left. Um, 0:33:18.400 --> 0:33:21.080 have you did you look at that new uh stable stats? 0:33:21.240 --> 0:33:22.520 I know you do. You guys do a lot of 0:33:22.560 --> 0:33:26.000 research into the lightning and stuff like that. Have you 0:33:26.000 --> 0:33:28.520 looked at the El Salvador stable coin that they're trying 0:33:28.560 --> 0:33:31.680 to release. Not extensively, I've heard of it. I've seen 0:33:31.720 --> 0:33:34.600 a couple of headlines, but not extensively. Yeah, so they're 0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:38.560 doing something like perpetual swaps, like is what bit mix used, 0:33:38.960 --> 0:33:42.000 so um, if you traded on on bit mix. I'm 0:33:42.040 --> 0:33:43.400 not even sure if they're around anymore. I know they're 0:33:43.400 --> 0:33:46.400 closed off to American consumers a while ago. But basically 0:33:46.400 --> 0:33:49.040 they had like x btc, so it was like a 0:33:49.080 --> 0:33:51.640 synthetic BTC and it was like somehow set the price 0:33:51.680 --> 0:33:54.720 off the synthetic purp swaps. I don't really know a 0:33:54.720 --> 0:33:56.400 lot about it. I guess you don't. You don't know 0:33:56.400 --> 0:33:59.680 that much about it either. Yeah, no, not a whole lot. 0:33:59.720 --> 0:34:02.440 I mean, ultimately, the more the more on ramps and 0:34:02.480 --> 0:34:04.960 the Bitcoin, the better. I think. The development you're seeing 0:34:04.960 --> 0:34:07.800 across Bitcoin Lightning as of right now is quite remarkable. 0:34:08.320 --> 0:34:10.480 You know, over at Lightning Labs of a protocol coin 0:34:10.560 --> 0:34:12.680 called Taro. It's an active development that would allow you 0:34:12.719 --> 0:34:16.480 to issue assets such as stable coins over Bitcoin and Lightning. 0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:18.800 So somebody in the country like El Salvador would be 0:34:18.880 --> 0:34:21.600 able to hold dollars in bitcoin in the same exact wallet, 0:34:21.719 --> 0:34:25.640 like benefiting from the privacy the security of the bitcoin network. 0:34:26.120 --> 0:34:28.920 There are numerous numerous things going on in bitcoin right now. Um, 0:34:28.920 --> 0:34:31.640 that are you know, again slowly inching us towards this 0:34:31.760 --> 0:34:36.239 future where bitcoin is is potentially a base layer money, right. Yeah. 0:34:36.280 --> 0:34:37.680 One of the things I mean I think about with 0:34:37.760 --> 0:34:40.400 Taro is like before the Internet. I mean, I don't know, 0:34:40.440 --> 0:34:41.759 I need to do some research on this club and 0:34:41.800 --> 0:34:45.000 talk about quite a bit. But um, you know, somewhere 0:34:45.040 --> 0:34:47.839 in the seventies or eighties, I'm guessing stock certificates were 0:34:47.880 --> 0:34:50.560 actually still certificates that they would send to you. Before 0:34:50.600 --> 0:34:53.960 the Internet, we had like actual bearer instruments, um, and 0:34:54.040 --> 0:34:56.600 I would have the stocks. I remember, I remember having 0:34:56.600 --> 0:35:00.680 stock certificates. Um, I'm not that old. I would have them. 0:35:00.680 --> 0:35:02.279 And then as a bearer instrument, if I want to 0:35:02.480 --> 0:35:04.319 give you this stock certificate, do you have it? And 0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:07.080 so like you could almost see like stocks being issued 0:35:07.160 --> 0:35:10.120 on that Tarot blockchain, and then I could have custody 0:35:10.160 --> 0:35:12.640 over that stock certificate and then I could exchange it 0:35:12.640 --> 0:35:14.919 with you over that lightning layer, which is a layer 0:35:14.920 --> 0:35:17.719 above the bitcoin network. Something like that that's right. Yeah, 0:35:17.719 --> 0:35:19.560 there's a future where that's conceivable. And the and the 0:35:19.560 --> 0:35:22.280 great thing about that is people who don't have access 0:35:22.320 --> 0:35:26.040 to traditional financial rails will now have access to all 0:35:26.080 --> 0:35:29.040 these different instruments that are you know, issued over bitcoin. 0:35:29.080 --> 0:35:32.000 Anybody who has bitcoin while it has access to these 0:35:32.280 --> 0:35:34.040 um and even if you're not a fan of these 0:35:34.040 --> 0:35:36.560 other assets, even if you don't want, uh, you know, 0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:39.239 the doom scenario where people start issuing you know, n 0:35:39.320 --> 0:35:42.080 f t s and things on bitcoin. Any increase in 0:35:42.080 --> 0:35:44.960 demand for a transactional capacity, right, will come with an 0:35:45.040 --> 0:35:48.319 increase in liquidity on bitcoin. So let's say the United 0:35:48.320 --> 0:35:51.560 States tratesury begins issuing, they start, you know, doing treasury 0:35:51.560 --> 0:35:55.400 options on bitcoin. There's a structural demand for United States treasuries. 0:35:55.600 --> 0:35:58.040 That liquidity will now come onto bitcoin. And it might 0:35:58.040 --> 0:36:00.200 not be somebody like the United States Treasury. Wuld be 0:36:00.239 --> 0:36:03.000 a corporation that decides to issue uh, you know, their 0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:05.840 their bonds the top the bitcoin blockchain through something like 0:36:05.880 --> 0:36:08.759 tarot that whatever demand there is for those bonds, which 0:36:08.760 --> 0:36:10.600 I can tell you there's a lot of the United 0:36:10.800 --> 0:36:13.360 the United States dollar capital market is the largest capital 0:36:13.360 --> 0:36:15.720 market in the world. That would come with increased demand 0:36:15.719 --> 0:36:19.919 for bitcoin liquidity, and with that, you know, price goes up. Yeah, 0:36:19.960 --> 0:36:22.160 the rising pride and the rising tide lifts all the 0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:24.120 boats at that point, and I would agree. I mean, 0:36:24.320 --> 0:36:25.879 I know a lot of people in the bitcoin space 0:36:25.880 --> 0:36:28.760 specifically think it's like anything else in the bitcoin is ridiculous. 0:36:28.800 --> 0:36:30.400 That's the only asked you need to own. But the 0:36:30.400 --> 0:36:32.880 reality is is that we still need progress in other areas, 0:36:32.920 --> 0:36:34.759 and we still need other types of businesses. We still 0:36:34.760 --> 0:36:36.839 need goods and services, and so people always be willing 0:36:36.880 --> 0:36:39.040 to invest into those those goods and services, and so 0:36:39.360 --> 0:36:41.040 we need a way to figure that out as well. 0:36:41.239 --> 0:36:43.840 I've also seen some stuff about even some governments issuing 0:36:43.880 --> 0:36:46.879 their currencies on it, so potentially like a Japanese gan 0:36:47.120 --> 0:36:49.040 or like a euro or something like that, and then 0:36:49.040 --> 0:36:51.799 it could move their own currency could move over a 0:36:51.800 --> 0:36:54.879 bitcoin rail but still keep their currency in place, which 0:36:54.920 --> 0:36:56.839 is pretty amazing to think about. And if you think 0:36:56.840 --> 0:37:00.799 about the dollar as just a payment network, um, then 0:37:00.840 --> 0:37:02.840 you can start to see how that works out. Anyway, 0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:05.080 that's a whole different conversation. You're listening to the markma show. 0:37:05.080 --> 0:37:07.959 We've been talking about the decentralized revolution, how the world 0:37:08.000 --> 0:37:11.160 is changing from centralization and decentralization, of course, being led 0:37:11.160 --> 0:37:13.400 by Bitcoin. I've been in the studio with Joe CONSORTI 0:37:13.440 --> 0:37:15.919 choke him out on Twitter at Joe CONSORTI say what's 0:37:16.000 --> 0:37:18.399 up that you heard us here? Of course I'm Mark Moss. 0:37:18.440 --> 0:37:20.000 That's what we got for you today. Thanks so much 0:37:20.040 --> 0:37:20.480 for listening.