1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the markma Show, 2 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: where we talk about each and every week. We talked 3 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:07,360 Speaker 1: about the decentralized Revolution. Of course, we're talking about the 4 00:00:07,360 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: way the world is changing rapidly right before a very eyes, 5 00:00:10,400 --> 00:00:12,960 Speaker 1: and we look at it through the lens of politics, finance, 6 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: and technology, those three things coming together and converging. Of course, 7 00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:19,000 Speaker 1: through all of history, it's technology that changes the world 8 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: the most, and of course the technology today is bitcoined 9 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: the decentralized technology. I try to bring to you each 10 00:00:24,880 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 1: and every week, you know, some education to help you 11 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 1: see things and understand things a little bit better. Of course, 12 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,240 Speaker 1: some of the latest breaking news to keep you up 13 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:33,680 Speaker 1: to date because this is a fast moving market, and 14 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: of course also bring some of my friends in so 15 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,319 Speaker 1: you can listen to some other interesting people besides just 16 00:00:38,479 --> 00:00:40,800 Speaker 1: me all the time. And so I am in the 17 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,599 Speaker 1: studio right now with Joe Consorti. You can find them 18 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Joe Consorti. Joe, thanks for joining me absolutely, 19 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 1: thanks for having me Mark Round to round two. Uh, 20 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: we're we're laughing. We had a little mixed up in 21 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: the studio before, so we're getting it going again. But 22 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: if you've been following me on YouTube. Well, first of all, 23 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: you're non following me on YouTube? What are you doing? 24 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: Just go to YouTube search Mark Moss and hit that 25 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: subscribe button and that bell notification. The algorithm doesn't always 26 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: like what I'm talking about, so, uh, you know, I 27 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 1: need that help. Go hit there, Go check that out. 28 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 1: And check out Joe on YouTube as well, at the 29 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: Bitcoin Layer. And I said that, right, Joe the Bitcoin Layer, Right. Yeah, 30 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 1: We'll make sure to link that down in the show 31 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 1: notes below. Joe has been helping me out do some research, 32 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: helping me dig up some charts and graphs and share 33 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,760 Speaker 1: this stuff with you guys on YouTube. He's a wizard 34 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 1: on those things. So check those out for sure. But Joe, 35 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,840 Speaker 1: you know, we we've been going back and forth. We've 36 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:34,680 Speaker 1: been sharing a bunch of data back and forth. I 37 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 1: thought would be great for us just to kind of 38 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:38,160 Speaker 1: like talk about it, discuss it. We haven't really got 39 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:39,959 Speaker 1: a chance to do that, and why not do it 40 00:01:40,000 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: on the radio here. So a lot going on in 41 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 1: the financial world. Um, you know, I've been doing content 42 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 1: on YouTube since and I'm sorry, yes, since I started, 43 00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: uh kind of writing that bear market when it started 44 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: and by the man, there was like nothing to talk about. 45 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 1: It was just like dead, you know, and then March 46 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:01,880 Speaker 1: and then it got really excited again. And that's kind 47 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: of where we're still at today. But a couple of 48 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 1: things that I think, uh that will dive through um 49 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 1: topics that you and I have talked about extensively. But 50 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: maybe let's start with the first one, which is this week, 51 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 1: everybody was excited, well maybe not everybody, but a lot 52 00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: of people are waiting to see what this new CPI, 53 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: this new consumer price inflation number was gonna be and 54 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: is inflation still going up or is inflation going down? 55 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:30,119 Speaker 1: And it looks like a year over year it went 56 00:02:30,160 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 1: down in month over a month, it went down. What's 57 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:35,880 Speaker 1: the take on that? Of course, so a lot of 58 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: eyes were on the CPR report coming into the July 59 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:43,600 Speaker 1: CPR report. Obviously, it gets released in August, and estimates 60 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: were looking at it and saying that it was going 61 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 1: to decelerate. It was gonna go from nine point one 62 00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: in June to eight point seven in July, and it 63 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:53,040 Speaker 1: actually fell even further than that, it fell down to 64 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 1: eight point five, which was a huge relief. Um, you know, 65 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:58,679 Speaker 1: looking at what the FETE has been doing. They have 66 00:02:58,760 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: been raising interest rates at a higher rate of change 67 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,840 Speaker 1: than they have since the nineties, and so, you know, 68 00:03:05,360 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: everybody was sort of expecting markets to blow up. People were, 69 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: you know, thinking that they would have to hike even 70 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:13,799 Speaker 1: you know, further than where they are now. But it 71 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: looks like we're already seeing the fruits of the FEDS labor. 72 00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,959 Speaker 1: It looks like inflation is already coming down and sort 73 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: of responding to all these tightening interest rates across the board. 74 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:28,239 Speaker 1: Month over month, the biggest driver of the CPI basket, 75 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 1: it's actually energy. So if you take a look at food, 76 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 1: food prices actually increased slightly a month over month. Good 77 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: prices stay the same, uh, services prices stay the same, 78 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 1: but energy dropped, and that that basically made up entirely 79 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: for um the point six per point six percent down shift, 80 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: and cp I was basically entirely energy prices, which is 81 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:52,320 Speaker 1: good because you know that's sort of what's hurting Americans 82 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:54,600 Speaker 1: the most. And when when you say energy, you're talking 83 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 1: about gasoline. Yeah for the most part, Yeah, for the 84 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: most oil, but really it's aso and that's what people buy. 85 00:04:01,160 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: People buy gas, they don't buy well, so gas dropped 86 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 1: quite a bit, which, of course after going up by 87 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: those astronomical rates, to get a little bit of a pullback, 88 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: I guess is pretty good. You know, one thing I see, 89 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,119 Speaker 1: like you've seen probably the stickers all over the gas 90 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: pumps of Biden saying I did that, right, And so 91 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:19,159 Speaker 1: if like he's out there now saying I did that, 92 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:21,200 Speaker 1: I lowered gas prices, does that mean he has to 93 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,080 Speaker 1: be your sponsor for gas prices going up to like 94 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: you can't take credit for dropping him if he didn't, 95 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: If he doesn't take credit for them going up, right, 96 00:04:27,760 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: I mean, that's what politicians do. They're they're selective about, 97 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:32,599 Speaker 1: you know, just about everything. All the bad things that 98 00:04:32,680 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: was the last guy, and then all the good things 99 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: you gotta take credit for. Yeah, right, right. So I 100 00:04:37,160 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 1: like to call cp I, which again for those listening, 101 00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: is the consumer price index. It's prices going up, you 102 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 1: know how much you pay for as he's as Joe 103 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:47,880 Speaker 1: saying here, gasoline going up, your state going up, and whatever, 104 00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 1: your milk, whatever the stuff is that you buy. Um. 105 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: I like to call it instead of CPI, called cp 106 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,920 Speaker 1: LIE because it's like so heavily manipulated and they can 107 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 1: almost show you whatever they want. And so if you 108 00:04:57,880 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: dig into that data, a couple of things that look 109 00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: that kind of stand out to me. One right off 110 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: the bat, I actually posted on Twitter earlier today. If 111 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 1: you're not following me on Twitter, then what are you 112 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: even doing? Check it out at one Mark Moss. That's 113 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: just the number one Mark Moss, and check out Joe 114 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,719 Speaker 1: while you're there at Joe CONSORTI UM, but I put 115 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: out on Twitter today. UM, year over year rents are 116 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: up on average nationally twenty six point eight percent nationally 117 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:25,960 Speaker 1: in some areas even way higher than that, some some 118 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 1: as much. UM. That's that's year over year. UM. And 119 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,359 Speaker 1: also there's an article that was out on Bloomberg that 120 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:35,440 Speaker 1: says that that home that rents are so tight that 121 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 1: it's that I've run about a nineties six or nineties 122 00:05:37,920 --> 00:05:41,400 Speaker 1: seven percent occupancy rate. People aren't moving out, Um, They're 123 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 1: staying where there are, And so we have this crazy 124 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: high year over year inflation in rates. Homes are extremely tight, 125 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: there's none opening up, and that makes up twenty five 126 00:05:52,400 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: cent of the basket. And I think they showed somewhere 127 00:05:57,680 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 1: around like five or six percent for shelter. Do do 128 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: you know anything about that, right, Yeah, So when it 129 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: comes to when it comes to like home price inflation 130 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: and these rents, a lot of these are a lot 131 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 1: more I wasn't talking about home price inflation. I was 132 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: talking about the rent rent the rent rent price inflation, right, Yeah, 133 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 1: so a lot of these are more sticky for the 134 00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 1: same exact reason that you mentioned. Um, you know, these 135 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:21,479 Speaker 1: are life's necessities. This is where people live, and so 136 00:06:21,760 --> 00:06:25,160 Speaker 1: the likelihood of people moving out and deciding to become homeless, right, 137 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 1: that's sort of the last you know, leg down in 138 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 1: demand instruction that you see. That's sort of the last 139 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 1: decrease across the board and prices that you see is rent, 140 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: right because people can you know, they can forfeit all 141 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:39,320 Speaker 1: of their different luxury goods, they can forfeit going out 142 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: on the weekends. But you know, it's a lot more 143 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,039 Speaker 1: difficult to find a place, you know, that's cheaper than 144 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 1: the place you're already living. Um for families, that's more difficult, etcetera, etcetera. 145 00:06:47,720 --> 00:06:50,359 Speaker 1: And so definitely like the last leg down we're gonna 146 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 1: see when it comes to this demand destruction, price is 147 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,760 Speaker 1: going down across the board. Chances are it's it's it's 148 00:06:55,800 --> 00:06:58,080 Speaker 1: going to be rent that generally lags behind everything else. 149 00:06:58,680 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 1: M M yeah, I just uh so, so you're absolutely right, 150 00:07:01,920 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: and I think we haven't even seen the worst of 151 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: it yet because to your point, it's sticky. So people 152 00:07:06,880 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: typically sign one to your leases, etcetera. And it's not 153 00:07:09,560 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 1: until they move out that they can then raise those rents. 154 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,760 Speaker 1: And so we're seeing all across the nation. We're seeing 155 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:17,080 Speaker 1: um when people move out as a fort increase, you know, 156 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: in a lot of cases, and so a lot of 157 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: that will be happening as we go go along. But 158 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,760 Speaker 1: I'm just saying we saw almost uh and it's the basket, 159 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 1: but somehow they showed like five percent. So that's why 160 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: I call it cp lie um. But that's under this 161 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 1: new FED guideline of being data dependent right there looking 162 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: at that. Another thing they're looking at is the jobs report, 163 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: and you and I we did some work on the 164 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 1: jobs report, and that number is super manipulated. One of 165 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: the things that people need to know about that is 166 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: that there's well, okay, so how do they get the data? 167 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 1: Always always look at the data, like where do they 168 00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 1: get the data? So with the with the with the 169 00:07:55,560 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 1: rent price, where do they get that data. Will they 170 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,600 Speaker 1: do a survey and they ask homeowners, what do you 171 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 1: think you could get for your house if you rented 172 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: it out? Well, I don't know who they survey. They 173 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: didn't survey me. And if you look at rent nationally, 174 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,920 Speaker 1: you'll see some places a percent, some places went down. So, uh, 175 00:08:12,040 --> 00:08:13,800 Speaker 1: depending on where they get that sample size, they get 176 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: a bunch of different answers. UM. Now, going to this 177 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,000 Speaker 1: job's data, they also run two surveys right to get 178 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:24,280 Speaker 1: that jobs data. Yeah, absolutely so, I mean there are 179 00:08:24,320 --> 00:08:27,960 Speaker 1: several several different surveys. UM. You know, you have initial 180 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: jobless claims, and then you have unemployment data, UM, non 181 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:35,120 Speaker 1: farm payrolls, all these different things. UM. You know, basically 182 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: all of it is survey data. UM. One of the 183 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: things that was especially surprising about the jobs data that 184 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: released this last week, UM was non farm payrolls data. 185 00:08:46,120 --> 00:08:49,320 Speaker 1: So unemployment is the tightest it's ever been. Uh, you know, 186 00:08:49,320 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: in the last couple of decades three point five percent. 187 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 1: It hasn't dipped below three point five percent, and you 188 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:56,720 Speaker 1: know several decades this has sort of been in the bottom. 189 00:08:56,800 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 1: And you've got uh, non farm payrolls data coming in 190 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:03,920 Speaker 1: at over double what the expectation was. And so the 191 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: labor market right now is a lot stronger um, you know, 192 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 1: than than the FED would like. We've or so it seems. 193 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: Hold that thought, Joe, we gotta take a break. You're 194 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: listening to the Markma Show. We're talking about the decentralized Revolution. 195 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. We're talking about 196 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:20,520 Speaker 1: the FED data and of course we're gonna talk about 197 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: what it means for markets moving forward and what it 198 00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:24,480 Speaker 1: means for bitcoin. We've got a lot of ground to 199 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:26,719 Speaker 1: cover in a short amount of time, so you do 200 00:09:26,760 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 1: not want to miss this. We're gonna come back finish 201 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: talking about that thought. Um, you're listening to the Markma Show. 202 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: Don't go away, We're gonna be right back. All right, 203 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: Welcome back. You are listening to the Markma Show. We're 204 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized revolution each and every week. Of course, 205 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: we look at it through the lens of politics, finance, 206 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 1: and technology. We're talking about the technology of bitcoin, and 207 00:09:44,200 --> 00:09:47,200 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio today with Joe Consorti. We're talking 208 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: about the FED UM and so we again politics, finance 209 00:09:50,640 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: and technology. We're talking about this finance piece specifically right now. 210 00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 1: And so Joe, Uh, sorry for the abrupt change into 211 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: the commercial, but you were talking about these non farms 212 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,720 Speaker 1: payroll um reports that came out and how it looked 213 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: like the jobs market is extremely strong, and everybody was 214 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: patting themselves on the back over that. Right. Yeah, that's 215 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 1: exactly right, And and some of these numbers are very 216 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 1: miss leading, especially non farm payrolls. Many people who I 217 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: follow have been saying, uh, you know, people like Jeff 218 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: Snyder have been saying that non farm perils have lost 219 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: their credibility through time and taking a look at something 220 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:25,600 Speaker 1: like Okay, there's a you know, there's a literally non 221 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 1: farm payrolls were expected to come in with a two 222 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 1: fifty dollar edition. They came in over double that at 223 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:33,280 Speaker 1: five eight thousand dollars. Uh, you know. But at the 224 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: same time that initial jobless claims are taking higher and 225 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,560 Speaker 1: higher and higher every single month, right. Uh. The you know, 226 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:42,040 Speaker 1: the biggest report you probably want to keep an eye 227 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,280 Speaker 1: on when it comes to leading indicators is as to 228 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,199 Speaker 1: how the job markets doing. Is initial jobless claims and 229 00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:49,560 Speaker 1: continuing claims. You don't want to take a look at, uh, 230 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 1: you know, things like the unemployment rate that lag. You 231 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:53,200 Speaker 1: don't want to take a look at non farm payrolls, 232 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,520 Speaker 1: which have you know, lost their reliability over the last 233 00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 1: decade or so. Um, you really want to look at, 234 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,480 Speaker 1: you know, who is filing for unemployment, who is filing 235 00:11:00,480 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: these initial jobless claims. For me, that's that's sort of 236 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: the highest signal indicator. Um. Of course you'll you'll never 237 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: hear the people in the mainstream highlight that, but as 238 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: of right now, you know, it's been taking up pretty 239 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 1: steadily since March. Yeah, so what I want to really 240 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:17,599 Speaker 1: get to is if the FED is being data dependent 241 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,600 Speaker 1: because everybody unfortunately I had uh I think I talked 242 00:11:20,600 --> 00:11:22,640 Speaker 1: about on the radio a couple of weeks ago, which, 243 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: by the way, if you missed, you can always catch 244 00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 1: my back episodes on the podcast. Just search Mark Mosh podcast. 245 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,880 Speaker 1: You can find it on any podcast player. But I 246 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,960 Speaker 1: I kind of talked about how insane it was for 247 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: us to sit there and watch the FED to come 248 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,680 Speaker 1: out and tell us what the price of money will be, 249 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: and how it's almost as insane as trying to watch 250 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:42,080 Speaker 1: some groundhog come out of the ground and tell us 251 00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:43,840 Speaker 1: what the weather is going to be. But yeah, here 252 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: we are and so everybody wants to hang on the 253 00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: word of the Fed. What are they going to do? 254 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 1: And so looking at those two data points that the 255 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:53,960 Speaker 1: inflation rate, the CPI and now, so we have lower inflation, 256 00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,760 Speaker 1: which is what they want. They're they're making positive progress 257 00:11:56,800 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: down UM, which would then make you think maybe they 258 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: could ease off of their tightening program. We'll call it 259 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: that raising rates UM. But then but then we also 260 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: have this strong jobs report which is manipulated and we 261 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 1: believe it's false, but they've got it, which then gives 262 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: them room to increase. So we kind of have these 263 00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 1: two different data points that let them now go either way. 264 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 1: Now we're kind of like inconclusive. Almost Yeah, that's exactly right. 265 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 1: So I actually, and this is the benefit of of 266 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:30,559 Speaker 1: writing your your newsletter literally the day as the economic 267 00:12:30,559 --> 00:12:32,640 Speaker 1: releases come out, because I was writing a newsletter before 268 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 1: the end, before CPI came out about how the feds 269 00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: runway was extended because with a strong jobs market, if 270 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:41,960 Speaker 1: their goal is detain inflation and the jobs market is 271 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: extremely strong, then they got the green light to extend 272 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,800 Speaker 1: their hiking runway. You know, well passed three, well passed 273 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 1: neutral under restrictive territory. That gives them the green light. 274 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: But then with the CPI release coming in lower than anticipated, 275 00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,200 Speaker 1: that gives them the red light because it shows that 276 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: they're tightening is working. There's no real need to continue 277 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: slamming on the yeah, if inflation is already decelerating, right, 278 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,599 Speaker 1: So you know, it's sort of this, it's this, it's this, 279 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: it's this odd game. At the same time, with the 280 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,960 Speaker 1: strong labor market, they can continue tightening, but with fighting inflation, 281 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,199 Speaker 1: they can't tighten too much. Deflation is already accelerating, and 282 00:13:13,200 --> 00:13:15,719 Speaker 1: the last thing they want is deflation. The last thing 283 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 1: they want to do is go too far and send 284 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 1: markets into a huge deflation. Are deflation? Are eavent? So? Um? 285 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:26,960 Speaker 1: I did a video reason I'm um, maybe it was free. 286 00:13:27,000 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: I do so many of them. But I was talking 287 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: about the difference of deflation versus disinflation. And so that's 288 00:13:33,520 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: two words that are thrown around a lot of people. 289 00:13:35,000 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 1: You don't understand what they are. But deflation is the 290 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,520 Speaker 1: opposite of inflation. So inflation now, first of all, I 291 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,720 Speaker 1: reject the definition of inflation. Inflation is the monetary supply 292 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,599 Speaker 1: going up. That's the Austrian definition of it. Trying to 293 00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 1: use that as consumer prices going up is a little 294 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: bit wrong. But anyway, Um, if if inflation is consumer 295 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,000 Speaker 1: prices going up, then deflation would be the opposite, which 296 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 1: is prices going down, whereas disinflation is still having inflation 297 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:02,760 Speaker 1: but as slow or rate. And so what we're seeing 298 00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 1: right now is disinflation. Instead of going up at nine 299 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: point one percent, it's down to eight point five. But 300 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: nothing goes up and down in a straight line. So uh, 301 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,720 Speaker 1: A lot of people are asking the question has inflation peaked? Um, 302 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,960 Speaker 1: what do you say about that? Of course, so for 303 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: me potential and and I guess I should say, I 304 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,080 Speaker 1: should say over what time frame? You always have to 305 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: ask that question today. Has it peaked for this year 306 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: as it peaked for this this decade? Yeah? For me, 307 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 1: I think it's I think it's it's peaked this year, 308 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: or at least for this cycle. The reason I say 309 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 1: that is because, um, energy is what's really what really 310 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 1: drove these these increases. And of course when you're making goods, 311 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: energy is an input in that. And so basically taking 312 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 1: a look at commodities, especially commodities that are used in 313 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 1: end products, talk about copper, A lot you and I 314 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 1: have talked about copper before because it's used as an 315 00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 1: input in so many end products. You can sort of 316 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 1: look at this as the bell weather of Okay, our 317 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: our price is going to increase across the border, decrease 318 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 1: across the boarding. That's gonna look like. And since June, 319 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: copperas fell very precipitously. I don't know the exact percentage, 320 00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: but it's it's really fallen off of its highs. And 321 00:15:09,720 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 1: so what that tells me is, Okay, if a lot 322 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:15,400 Speaker 1: of this inflation that we've seen since the start of 323 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:20,080 Speaker 1: one has been driven by huge increases in energy energy prices, 324 00:15:20,120 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 1: which in my mind, you know, that's that's a supply issue, 325 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:26,000 Speaker 1: and we're starting to see the commodities that caused that, 326 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:28,640 Speaker 1: um consumer price inflation to come down that I think 327 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 1: that's leading and telling me personally that yeah, for now, 328 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: consumer price inflation this year has peaked and is headed 329 00:15:35,480 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 1: back down. Mm hmm. Now I do want to make 330 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: a note again. I put this on Twitter the other 331 00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 1: day to again follow me on Twitter at one Mark 332 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: Moss and follow Joe at Joe CONSORTI um, but I 333 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,760 Speaker 1: put on Twitter, I said, they just remember for everyone 334 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,240 Speaker 1: who's not not so sure. Uh, just if inflation comes 335 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: down from eight points eight point five now to five 336 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: point five, doesn't mean prices that's the disinflation versus deflation. 337 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,320 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean prices are coming back down. It means they're 338 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 1: still going up, just at a just at a slower rate. Um, 339 00:16:03,960 --> 00:16:06,360 Speaker 1: I might I might agree with that. I think maybe 340 00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 1: we've seen the height of inflation for this cycle, although 341 00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:12,760 Speaker 1: like I said, it's like completely false anyway, because to 342 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: the point of I made of of of the shelter category, 343 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: which is of the basket is up by and we 344 00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: also saw foods up ten percent, So I mean, like, 345 00:16:23,800 --> 00:16:28,800 Speaker 1: how is food up ten percent? Shelters up? But somehow 346 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,280 Speaker 1: gas brought it all the back down. So anyway, it 347 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 1: is what it is. But um, i'd think maybe maybe 348 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 1: for the rest of this year we might see that. 349 00:16:35,560 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: But I've also gone out and said that I think 350 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 1: this might be some of the lowest inflation we see 351 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: for the decade. And so back to this kind of 352 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: nothing goes up and down in a straight line. I think, 353 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 1: you know, we're we're we're retreating, but I think we're 354 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 1: still going to go higher over over time. I think 355 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: it's the only way. I don't know, what do you 356 00:16:49,640 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 1: think about that potentially? I mean there are two narratives. 357 00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 1: There's this narrative of you know, this consumer price inflation 358 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,400 Speaker 1: sort of on like this endless path to infinity because 359 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: you know, high for inflation is the only way. We 360 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: have way too much debt right now. Um, if you 361 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,840 Speaker 1: take a look, if you plot uh gross domestic product 362 00:17:06,880 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: against all of publicly held liabilities, you can see, okay, 363 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 1: So so our debt that we have to pay interest 364 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:17,600 Speaker 1: on is climbing rapidly. In our GDPs is not even 365 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:20,199 Speaker 1: remotely close. So there's this school of thought that we 366 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:22,040 Speaker 1: have too much data as of right now. The only 367 00:17:22,040 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 1: way out is through this implicit default of of printing 368 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: in order to pay for it. There's that school of thought. 369 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: And then there's a school of thought that the inflation 370 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 1: we're seeing now isn't necessarily the It is, of course 371 00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 1: the sim that I'll be better in my words, the 372 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:38,920 Speaker 1: consumer price inflation we're seeing now, um might be partially 373 00:17:38,960 --> 00:17:42,359 Speaker 1: the symptom of you know, injecting the economy with fourteen shilling, 374 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 1: but also partially supply driven. And I think you know, 375 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: we were going to see some relief and cp I 376 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,719 Speaker 1: purely because that supply driven component seems to be alleviated 377 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,880 Speaker 1: for the time being. But I think in the long run, 378 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: um the you know, the debt levels is going to 379 00:17:55,400 --> 00:17:57,400 Speaker 1: be a real concern and I think, you know, one 380 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: of the ways out will be through this continued implay 381 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: and default of inflating the money. So we're gonna talk 382 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 1: about that because we've got some some discussion there when 383 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 1: we get back in a second. You're listening to the 384 00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 1: Mark ma Show. I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti. 385 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: We're talking about the decentralized revolution, politics, finance and technology 386 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:14,400 Speaker 1: coming together and bitcoin. We've got a lot more to discuss. 387 00:18:14,560 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 1: Don't go away, I'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. 388 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:18,920 Speaker 1: You are listening to the Mark Mos Show. If you're 389 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:21,159 Speaker 1: just tuning in, I'm in the studio right now with 390 00:18:21,240 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: Joe Consorti. You can find them on Twitter at Joe Consorti. 391 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 1: Of course I am at one Mark Moss And of course, 392 00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 1: as always, we're talking about the world changing right before 393 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,760 Speaker 1: our very eyes, as we swing, as the pendulum swings 394 00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 1: from centralization to decentralization. We are in the middle of 395 00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 1: a decentralized revolution that will chart out over the next 396 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 1: hundred two hundred years UM. So before we took the break, 397 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 1: we were talking about has inflation peaked or will it 398 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 1: go higher? The question that you always have to ask 399 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: is over what time frame bonds are horrible, bonds are great? 400 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 1: Well over what time frame you know, UM, And so 401 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,800 Speaker 1: you're gonna have to look at that like bullish on 402 00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: bitcoin or barrass on bitcoin, Well over what time frame? UM? 403 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: And so if as I believe that we're in this 404 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 1: d centralized revolution, so the pendulum swings on tune and 405 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: fifty year time frame, and we've maxed out centralization. And 406 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: what we've seen is that over the last really you know, 407 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:12,720 Speaker 1: hundred years, maybe more spectically fifty years UM, we've had 408 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,119 Speaker 1: massive inflation as an Austrian definition of increase in the 409 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 1: money supply, which is inflationary more money chasing, limited goods UM. 410 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 1: To offset that, in the United States specifically, but most 411 00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: of the developed world, the West, we've off shored all 412 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: of our manufacturing, all of our high paying jobs. So 413 00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: now job is eight thousand dollars offshore or hundred dollar 414 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,760 Speaker 1: parts Now eight bucks, you know, made off shore, and 415 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 1: so We've had this deflation because we've been able to globalize. 416 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: But if the world starts to deglobalize, which is already 417 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:44,960 Speaker 1: happening and I believe will continue to happen, and we 418 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: have to now on shore those jobs again and on 419 00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 1: shore that manufacturing again, which again is already happening. They 420 00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: see this with the with the chip manufacturing, and even 421 00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 1: with mining and things like that. Even the US is 422 00:19:55,600 --> 00:19:58,120 Speaker 1: sourcing out lithium I'm sorry, uranium in the US. We're 423 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: starting to see all this happening. So that continues to happen, 424 00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: all of the benefits of the globalism and the deflation 425 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,120 Speaker 1: will then reverse and then we'll have inflation. So that's 426 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,280 Speaker 1: kind of my statement on that. I don't know if 427 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 1: if you have a comment on that, of course, yeah, 428 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: I think what you know, bringing a lot of these 429 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:15,920 Speaker 1: industries back to the United States and in d globalizing, 430 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: we're definitely on the track to that. You're seeing what 431 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,080 Speaker 1: happens when you have too much dependence on one entity. 432 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,880 Speaker 1: You're seeing it in Europe, and you know proliferates everywhere else, 433 00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 1: um you know, in in several other nations, and obviously 434 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:29,640 Speaker 1: that is inherently inflationary. And it's a type of inflation 435 00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 1: that is more entrenched as well. It's a type of 436 00:20:31,960 --> 00:20:34,439 Speaker 1: inflation that doesn't just go away like uh, you know, 437 00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:38,119 Speaker 1: consumer driven inflation or CPI inflation that you can just 438 00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: you know, get away with the snap of a finger, 439 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,760 Speaker 1: with a with a little bit of demand destruction. Um, yeah, No, 440 00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 1: I definitely agree with you there. Yeah, And and you 441 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: know again, I mean the reason why I reject the 442 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: prices going up is because there's there's trillions of prices, 443 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 1: and there's trillions of reasons why those prices could go 444 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: up on certain things or down. Like Walmart now is 445 00:20:57,800 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 1: trying to change over their inventory. They realized they bought 446 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:01,719 Speaker 1: all the wrong inventory. Now they want to get rid 447 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,160 Speaker 1: of a lot of their durable goods and they want 448 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,400 Speaker 1: to move back to kind of consumer staples for example. 449 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 1: And the CEO announced that they're gonna basically fire sell 450 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,880 Speaker 1: all the inventories just to clear it out. So like, well, 451 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,239 Speaker 1: the prices just got marked out on that, Like that 452 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: wasn't on the BINGO card, Like I didn't. I didn't 453 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 1: expect that prices will go down because they overbought and 454 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 1: run category and they need to fire sell it, right, 455 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: So like there's a trillion prices, there's a trillion reasons 456 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: why prices could go up or down on any of 457 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: those trillion things. Um, Which again it's a little bit crazy, 458 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,560 Speaker 1: but again they try to classify in two areas. Right, So, 459 00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: demand pull or cost push. So when the costs go 460 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,840 Speaker 1: up to the points that you made about commodities, when 461 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:39,680 Speaker 1: when the cost to get the commodities out of the ground, 462 00:21:39,760 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 1: the commodities goes up, transportation all that those pushed the 463 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:45,640 Speaker 1: cost of costs of things up. And then there's demand pull. 464 00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: When there's too much demand, then it pulls the price 465 00:21:47,840 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 1: up as well on the cost push side. And back 466 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,000 Speaker 1: to the jobs report. Um, if the Fed seems to 467 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: be trying to crush demand, which is basically what they're 468 00:21:57,080 --> 00:21:58,800 Speaker 1: trying to do, They've they've said it, I've talked about 469 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,359 Speaker 1: it many times. They want to crush the stock market 470 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:04,040 Speaker 1: asset prices to kind of do this reverse wealth effects, 471 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:07,760 Speaker 1: we don't spend as much money. Um. Would you, first 472 00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,159 Speaker 1: of all, would you agree that that they I mean 473 00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 1: they said that right there, trying to demand crush demand, right? So, Um, 474 00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,719 Speaker 1: then you have this job support that came out very 475 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:19,880 Speaker 1: strong and actually wages went up by zero. So wages 476 00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,919 Speaker 1: going up is actually the opposite of what they want, 477 00:22:23,520 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: because wages going up leads to inflation. So it almost 478 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: seems like the Fed, what the Fed and the government 479 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 1: want is for our wages to actually go down, which 480 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:37,400 Speaker 1: is the opposite of what we the people would want. 481 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:40,320 Speaker 1: That's right, Yeah, in order to I mean we talk 482 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:45,920 Speaker 1: about this demand demand pull inflation in when we had 483 00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:49,640 Speaker 1: all this fiscal and monetary stimulus. Now is not only 484 00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,080 Speaker 1: is the labor market rip roaring, but everybody has all 485 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 1: of this income to go out and spend it um 486 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:58,040 Speaker 1: and so that was a component alongside these supply shocks 487 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: which led to this multi decade high and inflation. Now, 488 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: what will continue to allow this to happen a strong 489 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,879 Speaker 1: labor market. Right, if the labor market continues being strong, 490 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: then you know, inflation may stay entrenched. And so what 491 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: the Feed is looking for is the reason they're doing 492 00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 1: this so aggressively is partially to break the back in 493 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,719 Speaker 1: the labor market, to increase the amount of people who 494 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,480 Speaker 1: are out destitute on the street. Uh. And so taking 495 00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:23,200 Speaker 1: a look at a strong labor market with like you mentioned, 496 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,360 Speaker 1: average hour only Erney's going up month over month point 497 00:23:25,440 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: five percent year over year five point two percent. That's huge. 498 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:32,800 Speaker 1: Wage price inflation is one of the parts of inflation 499 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: that they hate the most, and that's one of the 500 00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,840 Speaker 1: ones that they're targeting with this. That's let me just 501 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 1: let me just reiterate what Joe said there. The wage 502 00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:43,520 Speaker 1: price inflation is the one they hate the most. So 503 00:23:43,600 --> 00:23:47,639 Speaker 1: that means your pay going up is what they hate 504 00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:49,880 Speaker 1: the most. That's what they have to stop. So, um, 505 00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:53,359 Speaker 1: the prices of goods are going up. Congratulations, there they 506 00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,480 Speaker 1: went down. Inflation slowed a little bit, so now it's 507 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 1: only going to buy eight point five percent, but your 508 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:01,280 Speaker 1: pay went up by zero point five So that means 509 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,239 Speaker 1: that your cost of living is going up with your 510 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 1: pay isn't keeping up. So you know, that means that 511 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:10,280 Speaker 1: that that your quality of life goes down. That means 512 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 1: you buy less things. At eight point five percent, that 513 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: means on the average, the average American it costs him 514 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:20,200 Speaker 1: about three dollars per month to have the exact same 515 00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: lifestyle they had the month before. So if you make 516 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 1: thirty two dollars an hour, that's ten extra hours in 517 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: the month you have to work just to have the 518 00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,400 Speaker 1: exact same lifestyle. That you had the month before. Those 519 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 1: are ten hours that you could have spent with your 520 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 1: wife or your kids. Ten hours you could have spent 521 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,040 Speaker 1: in the gym with Joe. I know Joe loves to 522 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,240 Speaker 1: be in the gym. Ten hours you could have been 523 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,359 Speaker 1: going to school to increase your education, to start aside business. 524 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 1: That's your life that's been stolen because of the inflation. 525 00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:49,679 Speaker 1: It's that insane. All right, Let's let's reframe this a 526 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 1: little bit, Joe. Um, because other than a couple of 527 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 1: nerds like me and you, Um, what the heck do 528 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 1: most people care about CPI? Right? What does that mean? 529 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:01,840 Speaker 1: They know that prices went up, like that's all they 530 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: really care about, or probably more people that are tuned 531 00:25:04,600 --> 00:25:06,480 Speaker 1: into this. They they're trying to figure out where the 532 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:10,480 Speaker 1: market is going because markets are forward looking, right, so um, 533 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,719 Speaker 1: discounting mechanisms as they're called, Right, So what does this 534 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:18,879 Speaker 1: mean for my retirement account, my stocks, my my house, 535 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 1: my assets? Based off of this information? Does the Fed? Uh? 536 00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,199 Speaker 1: Does the FED have this more neutral position? And now 537 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: maybe there's this soft landing they're able to kind of 538 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,680 Speaker 1: thread the needle to like maybe their backs aren't as 539 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:36,200 Speaker 1: forced as people thought. They were, so potentially that's coming 540 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: off of the CPI report, especially, we saw a lot 541 00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,120 Speaker 1: of moves in forward looking interest rate markets. And I'll 542 00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: explain this in a way that that makes it so like, 543 00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,200 Speaker 1: you know, why should you care about all of this? Well, 544 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: what the Fed is doing right now is they're they're essentially, 545 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:51,840 Speaker 1: in the simplest terms, they're removing liquidity from the economy 546 00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:55,119 Speaker 1: by making it more expensive to borrow um you know, 547 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:57,400 Speaker 1: at in in very lay in terms, and so one 548 00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,760 Speaker 1: of the things more extensive to borrow by pushing their 549 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:05,160 Speaker 1: straight higher. Yes, And so basically there are these futures markets, 550 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:08,440 Speaker 1: particularly federal funds futures, which let you take a look 551 00:26:08,480 --> 00:26:10,679 Speaker 1: at the market is pricing in that the Fed is 552 00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 1: going to do basically, and so Fed funds futures originally 553 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:18,159 Speaker 1: they were at a much higher terminal rates, so they 554 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:20,240 Speaker 1: were predicting the Fed would have to hike much higher 555 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,720 Speaker 1: uh and that it would be much further out. So 556 00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: not only would would it be a higher terminal rate, 557 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: but it will be a slow grind to get there. 558 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: And now with the CPI report, basically the markets are 559 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,560 Speaker 1: saying the Fed is looking at slowing consumer price inflation 560 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,160 Speaker 1: and they're understanding that to some extent, they're cooling the economy, 561 00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:40,720 Speaker 1: which is what they want. And so interest rate futures 562 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: markets are telling us now that they're going to be 563 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,520 Speaker 1: able to get to three point five percent roughly as 564 00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,639 Speaker 1: a terminal rate. Right now, we're at two and a 565 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,720 Speaker 1: half percent FED funds and that terminal rate will be 566 00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:55,280 Speaker 1: reached late this year or Q one next year, which 567 00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 1: means as of right now. Because markets are forward looking, 568 00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,719 Speaker 1: risk markets are forward looking. There taking a look at 569 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 1: what these futures markets are saying because rates are also 570 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 1: forward looking. But essentially the reason risk assets have bottomed 571 00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:12,000 Speaker 1: and they've risen, the NASDAC is up sixteen from the lows. 572 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:13,960 Speaker 1: The reason bitcoin seems to be catching a bit of 573 00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,199 Speaker 1: a bid is because the markets are understanding that the 574 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,640 Speaker 1: FED is going to pause late this year early next year, 575 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:22,840 Speaker 1: and that's what the data is saying. I'm not making 576 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:25,600 Speaker 1: outlandage predictionous that are, you know, not based on data. 577 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: The reason let's let's let's hold let's let's hold that 578 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 1: thought right there, and then I want to come back 579 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: and let's we'll talk about bitcoins specifically. You said it's 580 00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: catching a bid. There was something from a Bloomberg analyst. 581 00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:36,240 Speaker 1: I came out today that I want to talk about 582 00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,640 Speaker 1: as well, Um, and so we'll come back with more. 583 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,199 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Mark ma Show. Of course, we're 584 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 1: talking about the decentralized Revolution. I'm in the studio with 585 00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 1: Joe CONSORTI. Check them out on Twitter at Joe Consorti. 586 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,400 Speaker 1: We got a whole lot to cover when I come back. 587 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 1: Don't go away, We'll be right back, all right, Welcome back. 588 00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,240 Speaker 1: You are listening to the Mark Moa show where we 589 00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 1: talk about each and every week the decentralized revolution, the 590 00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,560 Speaker 1: way the world is changing right before our very eyes 591 00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,320 Speaker 1: through the lens of politics, finance, and tech not ology. 592 00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:04,600 Speaker 1: Of course, that technology being Bitcoin, the decentralized revolution technology. 593 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,960 Speaker 1: I'm in the studio with Joe Consorti and Um, Joey, 594 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 1: I kind of cut you off. Um, you were talking 595 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: about the way that No. Now the market sort of 596 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,119 Speaker 1: thinks the FED will probably raise into next year, and 597 00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:20,320 Speaker 1: risk on assets, or I should say risk risk on 598 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 1: assets are starting to catch a bid. Bitcoin has been 599 00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,080 Speaker 1: catching a bid. It's up from well as low as 600 00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: seventeen thousand now too. I think about twenty four is 601 00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 1: um range um. And so the NASDAC is also pumping 602 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 1: back up, which is also one of those risk on assets. 603 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:37,320 Speaker 1: So you're starting to see that it is coming back 604 00:28:37,320 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 1: to life. UM. I think a question a lot of 605 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:44,719 Speaker 1: people are asking, um, we're back into bull market territory 606 00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 1: that we were. We went went into bear market therey, 607 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 1: now we're supposedly we're back into bull market territory. Um. 608 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,120 Speaker 1: Is this one of those just deep bull bear market 609 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,000 Speaker 1: fake outs? So in my purview though, it is, and 610 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:00,400 Speaker 1: I think we you know, probabilistically, of course, there is 611 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 1: a scenario where, you know, probably probabilistically that's the key word. Yes, 612 00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:06,840 Speaker 1: he says, we can never be definitive. You know, we 613 00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 1: always got to give both scenarios. There's a situation right 614 00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 1: now where the FED comes out later this August Rum 615 00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 1: Powell is going to do some forward guidance. He's speaking 616 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 1: at Jackson Hole. UM. And there there is a scenario 617 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 1: where he says, labor markets too strong. Right now, the 618 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: market's interpreting our our you know, our FED speak as dubbish. 619 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:26,920 Speaker 1: We're not dubbish. We're we're committed to going to three 620 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 1: five and beyond. If that happens, then you know, this 621 00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: is a bear market rally and risk you's a little bit. 622 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: But if you know, let's say, uh, September, CPI again 623 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:39,120 Speaker 1: comes in low fed speak is dubbish once again, then 624 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,440 Speaker 1: you know we could see again a pause late this 625 00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 1: year early next year. And that's what that's what rates 626 00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,400 Speaker 1: markets are telling us. So I'm leaning towards the ladder 627 00:29:46,400 --> 00:29:48,520 Speaker 1: where this is more of a trend shift towards risk 628 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: on than a bear market rally. But of course, you know, 629 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:55,040 Speaker 1: we we've always you got to be probabilistic about these things. Now, 630 00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,640 Speaker 1: bitcoin has been trading like a risk on asset. It's 631 00:29:57,680 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 1: basically been moving just like almost in lock step. Um. 632 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 1: Correlated with the nasdack. Um. You know, we've talked about 633 00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:06,280 Speaker 1: this quite a bit. But Um, there was an article 634 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,520 Speaker 1: I saw of there was a Bloomberg analyst that came 635 00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:14,280 Speaker 1: out and said that he thinks that bitcoin is likely 636 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: to transition to a risk off asset at the second 637 00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:23,719 Speaker 1: half of two. He said it's a likely rally. Bitcoin 638 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,240 Speaker 1: will likely rally alongside golden treasury bonds. According to Michael Glone, 639 00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,640 Speaker 1: a senior commodity strategy at Bloomberg. UM, what do you 640 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 1: say about that? So over at the Bitcoin Lair on 641 00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 1: YouTube and on substack. One of the things that I 642 00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 1: talked about three or four weeks ago was bitcoin tracking 643 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,520 Speaker 1: very closely with global liquidity and sort of moving in 644 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 1: and out with global liquidity. Um. One of the way 645 00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:50,360 Speaker 1: that bitcoin is traded by the guys with all the money, right, 646 00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:52,200 Speaker 1: you know, we we like to think that that you 647 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 1: and I trade inside and we moved the bitcoin price, 648 00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 1: but we don't. Ultimately, it's these huge funds that are trading. 649 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 1: We call that. We call that the difference of dumb money, 650 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,560 Speaker 1: which is Joe and I and you whoever is listening, 651 00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:03,560 Speaker 1: and then the smart money that's the big money. Right, 652 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,360 Speaker 1: that's right. And so right now, this is sort of 653 00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,240 Speaker 1: an informational arbitrage. You and I see bitcoin as debasement insurance, 654 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,480 Speaker 1: where we understand that you know, this, this FIAT system 655 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:15,800 Speaker 1: is sort of program to, you know, debase because of 656 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 1: our debtloads and FIA and bitcoin is absolutely fixed, programmatically scarce. 657 00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,440 Speaker 1: So we understand it as debasement insurance. Big funds don't 658 00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,800 Speaker 1: trade it that way yet, and so there's this informational 659 00:31:25,880 --> 00:31:27,880 Speaker 1: arbitrage that we've been able to catch on for the 660 00:31:27,960 --> 00:31:30,480 Speaker 1: last twelve years. The bitcoin is how a price subscribed 661 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: to it. But the reason that tide might start to 662 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:37,000 Speaker 1: change is you start to see institutions coming into the 663 00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: mix and potentially viewing bitcoin, uh, you know, as something 664 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 1: they like to allocate to as well. You saw black 665 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 1: Rock partner up with coin based specifically to offer not 666 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 1: crypto bitcoin to your clients through private trust, and so 667 00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 1: I think it's a key peace right there, not crypto bitcoin. 668 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,080 Speaker 1: That's exactly right. I think through time that window will 669 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,320 Speaker 1: close and bitcoin will transition into a risk of asset 670 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,239 Speaker 1: because ultimately more people are going to catch on. Uh 671 00:32:02,280 --> 00:32:04,640 Speaker 1: you know, one of the end games is highly inflationary 672 00:32:04,680 --> 00:32:06,600 Speaker 1: for the dollar, and I think over time, more people 673 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 1: are gonna catch on that bitcoin is the solution to that. 674 00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:11,720 Speaker 1: And slowly but surely that gap is starting to change 675 00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,920 Speaker 1: from bitcoin being risk on to bitcoin being risk off. Yeah, 676 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,920 Speaker 1: I would agree. And one thing that you said I 677 00:32:16,960 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 1: think is super crucial for everyone to grasp onto is 678 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:25,280 Speaker 1: that our informational arbitrage and so um, you always need 679 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,440 Speaker 1: to have an edge. If you want to compete in sports, 680 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: or you want to compete in business, or you want 681 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 1: to compete in and investing, you have to have an edge, right, 682 00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,360 Speaker 1: one little thing that makes you better in one area 683 00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,080 Speaker 1: than somebody else. If you don't know what you're investing edges, 684 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: that means you don't have one. And what what I 685 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,160 Speaker 1: think Joe is referring to is as information arbitrage. Is 686 00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,080 Speaker 1: Joe and I we spent a lot of time studying bitcoin, 687 00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:46,800 Speaker 1: and so we have an edge. We see what bitcoin 688 00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,920 Speaker 1: is or could become, while most people don't, and so 689 00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 1: that gives us a little bit of an edge or 690 00:32:51,600 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 1: an advantage there. And so that just think about that, 691 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,520 Speaker 1: and I would agree with you, Joe. I mean, I think, Um, 692 00:32:57,560 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 1: to your point, we've already seen it as that. And 693 00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: to the one of this Bloomberg analyst, he's saying the 694 00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:05,760 Speaker 1: same thing, UM that in a severe recession, bitcoin will 695 00:33:05,800 --> 00:33:08,840 Speaker 1: shine and people start to see that it's this um 696 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,240 Speaker 1: risk off asset moving from risk on risk off, and 697 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,320 Speaker 1: I say, it's it's been trading like a NASDAC stock, 698 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:16,320 Speaker 1: but it's not that. Um. One more thing I want 699 00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 1: to talk about. We have a couple minutes left. Um, 700 00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: have you did you look at that new uh stable stats? 701 00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:22,520 Speaker 1: I know you do. You guys do a lot of 702 00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:26,000 Speaker 1: research into the lightning and stuff like that. Have you 703 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: looked at the El Salvador stable coin that they're trying 704 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 1: to release. Not extensively, I've heard of it. I've seen 705 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,600 Speaker 1: a couple of headlines, but not extensively. Yeah, so they're 706 00:33:34,600 --> 00:33:38,560 Speaker 1: doing something like perpetual swaps, like is what bit mix used, 707 00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:42,000 Speaker 1: so um, if you traded on on bit mix. I'm 708 00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:43,400 Speaker 1: not even sure if they're around anymore. I know they're 709 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:46,400 Speaker 1: closed off to American consumers a while ago. But basically 710 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:49,040 Speaker 1: they had like x btc, so it was like a 711 00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,640 Speaker 1: synthetic BTC and it was like somehow set the price 712 00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:54,720 Speaker 1: off the synthetic purp swaps. I don't really know a 713 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:56,400 Speaker 1: lot about it. I guess you don't. You don't know 714 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 1: that much about it either. Yeah, no, not a whole lot. 715 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:02,440 Speaker 1: I mean, ultimately, the more the more on ramps and 716 00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,960 Speaker 1: the Bitcoin, the better. I think. The development you're seeing 717 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,800 Speaker 1: across Bitcoin Lightning as of right now is quite remarkable. 718 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,480 Speaker 1: You know, over at Lightning Labs of a protocol coin 719 00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:12,680 Speaker 1: called Taro. It's an active development that would allow you 720 00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: to issue assets such as stable coins over Bitcoin and Lightning. 721 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,800 Speaker 1: So somebody in the country like El Salvador would be 722 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,600 Speaker 1: able to hold dollars in bitcoin in the same exact wallet, 723 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:25,640 Speaker 1: like benefiting from the privacy the security of the bitcoin network. 724 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: There are numerous numerous things going on in bitcoin right now. Um, 725 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,640 Speaker 1: that are you know, again slowly inching us towards this 726 00:34:31,760 --> 00:34:36,239 Speaker 1: future where bitcoin is is potentially a base layer money, right. Yeah. 727 00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:37,680 Speaker 1: One of the things I mean I think about with 728 00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,400 Speaker 1: Taro is like before the Internet. I mean, I don't know, 729 00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 1: I need to do some research on this club and 730 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,000 Speaker 1: talk about quite a bit. But um, you know, somewhere 731 00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:47,839 Speaker 1: in the seventies or eighties, I'm guessing stock certificates were 732 00:34:47,880 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 1: actually still certificates that they would send to you. Before 733 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 1: the Internet, we had like actual bearer instruments, um, and 734 00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,600 Speaker 1: I would have the stocks. I remember, I remember having 735 00:34:56,600 --> 00:35:00,680 Speaker 1: stock certificates. Um, I'm not that old. I would have them. 736 00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,279 Speaker 1: And then as a bearer instrument, if I want to 737 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,319 Speaker 1: give you this stock certificate, do you have it? And 738 00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: so like you could almost see like stocks being issued 739 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 1: on that Tarot blockchain, and then I could have custody 740 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 1: over that stock certificate and then I could exchange it 741 00:35:12,640 --> 00:35:14,919 Speaker 1: with you over that lightning layer, which is a layer 742 00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,719 Speaker 1: above the bitcoin network. Something like that that's right. Yeah, 743 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 1: there's a future where that's conceivable. And the and the 744 00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,280 Speaker 1: great thing about that is people who don't have access 745 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 1: to traditional financial rails will now have access to all 746 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,040 Speaker 1: these different instruments that are you know, issued over bitcoin. 747 00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: Anybody who has bitcoin while it has access to these 748 00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,040 Speaker 1: um and even if you're not a fan of these 749 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 1: other assets, even if you don't want, uh, you know, 750 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 1: the doom scenario where people start issuing you know, n 751 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:42,080 Speaker 1: f t s and things on bitcoin. Any increase in 752 00:35:42,080 --> 00:35:44,960 Speaker 1: demand for a transactional capacity, right, will come with an 753 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,319 Speaker 1: increase in liquidity on bitcoin. So let's say the United 754 00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,560 Speaker 1: States tratesury begins issuing, they start, you know, doing treasury 755 00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,400 Speaker 1: options on bitcoin. There's a structural demand for United States treasuries. 756 00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,040 Speaker 1: That liquidity will now come onto bitcoin. And it might 757 00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:00,200 Speaker 1: not be somebody like the United States Treasury. Wuld be 758 00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: a corporation that decides to issue uh, you know, their 759 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,840 Speaker 1: their bonds the top the bitcoin blockchain through something like 760 00:36:05,880 --> 00:36:08,759 Speaker 1: tarot that whatever demand there is for those bonds, which 761 00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:10,600 Speaker 1: I can tell you there's a lot of the United 762 00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 1: the United States dollar capital market is the largest capital 763 00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,720 Speaker 1: market in the world. That would come with increased demand 764 00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,919 Speaker 1: for bitcoin liquidity, and with that, you know, price goes up. Yeah, 765 00:36:19,960 --> 00:36:22,160 Speaker 1: the rising pride and the rising tide lifts all the 766 00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,120 Speaker 1: boats at that point, and I would agree. I mean, 767 00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:25,879 Speaker 1: I know a lot of people in the bitcoin space 768 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,760 Speaker 1: specifically think it's like anything else in the bitcoin is ridiculous. 769 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,400 Speaker 1: That's the only asked you need to own. But the 770 00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:32,880 Speaker 1: reality is is that we still need progress in other areas, 771 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:34,759 Speaker 1: and we still need other types of businesses. We still 772 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,839 Speaker 1: need goods and services, and so people always be willing 773 00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 1: to invest into those those goods and services, and so 774 00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:41,040 Speaker 1: we need a way to figure that out as well. 775 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,840 Speaker 1: I've also seen some stuff about even some governments issuing 776 00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,879 Speaker 1: their currencies on it, so potentially like a Japanese gan 777 00:36:47,120 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 1: or like a euro or something like that, and then 778 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,799 Speaker 1: it could move their own currency could move over a 779 00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,879 Speaker 1: bitcoin rail but still keep their currency in place, which 780 00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:56,839 Speaker 1: is pretty amazing to think about. And if you think 781 00:36:56,840 --> 00:37:00,799 Speaker 1: about the dollar as just a payment network, um, then 782 00:37:00,840 --> 00:37:02,840 Speaker 1: you can start to see how that works out. Anyway, 783 00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 1: that's a whole different conversation. You're listening to the markma show. 784 00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:07,959 Speaker 1: We've been talking about the decentralized revolution, how the world 785 00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 1: is changing from centralization and decentralization, of course, being led 786 00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,400 Speaker 1: by Bitcoin. I've been in the studio with Joe CONSORTI 787 00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:15,919 Speaker 1: choke him out on Twitter at Joe CONSORTI say what's 788 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:18,399 Speaker 1: up that you heard us here? Of course I'm Mark Moss. 789 00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,000 Speaker 1: That's what we got for you today. Thanks so much 790 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:20,480 Speaker 1: for listening.