Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and
Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm
Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course, the first GOP debate versus
Speaker 1: the Guy who wasn't there. I've said it before and
Speaker 1: I'll say it again. Anytime I see a Republican presidential
Speaker 1: candidate other than Donald Trump on television, I'm reminded that
Speaker 1: they and their party look like they're in a hostage video.
Speaker 1: They are all trapped by Trump, and none of them
Speaker 1: have convinced me that they can escape his. Republican Challengers
Speaker 1: held their first national debate recently, offering an array of
Speaker 1: paul's trying to make a case for themselves and the
Speaker 1: GOP's future. The group included Ron DeSantis, Nikki Hailey, Mike Pence,
Speaker 1: Chris Christy, Tim Scott, Asia Hutchinson, Doug Burgham, and the
Speaker 1: one and only Vivek Ramaswami. Ramaswami offered the most transparent approach,
Speaker 1: contending with Trump. Recast yourself as a chat ter, grinning
Speaker 1: alternate version of Donald Trump light. The others followed different
Speaker 1: paths to making cases for themselves. Meanwhile, Trump counterprogrammed he
Speaker 1: sat down with former Fox News propagandist and conspiracy theorist
Speaker 1: Tucker Carlson to chat about election fraud and, among other things,
Speaker 1: his unfounded belief that China controls the Panama Canal. The
Speaker 1: interview aired on social media and was timed to distract
Speaker 1: voters from the Republican debate, which Trump chose not to attend.
Speaker 1: Joining me to make sense of this Carnival is Susan
Speaker 1: del Percio, a Republican political strategist and an advisor to
Speaker 1: a variety of political and corporate campaigns. She also once
Speaker 1: worked in former New York Mayor Rudi Giuliani's administration. Susan
Speaker 1: is savvy and insightful and always a treat to talk to.
Speaker 2: Hey, Susan hate tim It's great to be with you today.
Speaker 1: It's really great to be with you. So let's do
Speaker 1: the big picture. What's your big takeaway from the first
Speaker 1: Republican debate?
Speaker 2: My first big takeaway is, boy, the Republicans blew it.
Speaker 2: They had an opportunity to present a platform of ideas,
Speaker 2: a vision for the country where they want to take it,
Speaker 2: which would obviously stand and start contrast to Donald Trump
Speaker 2: because he is only about Donald Trump. As we know
Speaker 2: and is just doing grievance. But all eight of these candidates,
Speaker 2: I was waiting for them to be whatever they are,
Speaker 2: not trying to deal with the man not in the room.
Speaker 2: And that was so disappointing because there are a lot
Speaker 2: of Republicans out there that want to move on from Trump,
Speaker 2: even those who voted for Trump twice want to move
Speaker 2: on from Trump. And I just I feel like the
Speaker 2: ideas and even the way it was moderated just did
Speaker 2: not bring that forward.
Speaker 1: So you know, if you could have waived your magic
Speaker 1: wand across the event, what would you have done differently?
Speaker 2: Then I probably would have said it up first of all,
Speaker 2: in issue format in a pretty tight way, and also
Speaker 2: not let the candidates get too out of control, if
Speaker 2: you will, because they were all over the place, and
Speaker 2: I know we're going to talk about the Ramasami, but
Speaker 2: he was like a fly that just gets swattered around.
Speaker 2: I mean, everyone was taking their shot at of Nikki Hally,
Speaker 2: Chris Chrissy. He just buzzed around, and really they should
Speaker 2: have stopped.
Speaker 1: It, especially because I mean, we'll get into him later,
Speaker 1: but he just backed actually, I think in the attention
Speaker 1: even while he was getting squatted.
Speaker 2: At exactly other than him.
Speaker 1: You know who stood out to you and why among
Speaker 1: the whole collection of people up on that stage.
Speaker 2: I would say the two standouts, the three standouts, two
Speaker 2: for good, one not good for me were on the
Speaker 2: positive side. Nikki Halley, she at least really tried to
Speaker 2: talk about foreign policy and you know her credentials. And
Speaker 2: Mike Pence. I didn't agree with some of what he said,
Speaker 2: but he was pretty aggressive in getting his comments out there.
Speaker 2: He's also the most experienced in this form of debate.
Speaker 2: The person who was so disappointing to me was Senator
Speaker 2: Tim Scott from South Carolina. A lot of people recognize
Speaker 2: that Ron DeSantis, the governor from Florida, is on his
Speaker 2: way out. He's been, in my opinion, he's done, and
Speaker 2: they're giving Tim Scott another look. They want to give
Speaker 2: someone a look and see what they have, and all
Speaker 2: eyes have been on Tim Scott. This was his time
Speaker 2: to shine.
Speaker 1: Particularly the Republican establishment. I think you saw this sort
Speaker 1: of movement after Desantists stumbled so badly out of the gates.
Speaker 1: People were attuned to that in the GOP. I think
Speaker 1: both among powerbrokers in the party and big money donors.
Speaker 1: And then there was this movement towards Tim Scott, and
Speaker 1: we'll talk more about him in a minute, but I
Speaker 1: agree with you he was essentially on her from on
Speaker 1: that stage, and I don't think that's how he needed
Speaker 1: to position himself during that debate exactly. Let's focus on
Speaker 1: Nicki Haley for a minute only because I found her
Speaker 1: to be the most substantive of the contenders up there,
Speaker 1: even if Pole suggests she's least likely to get the nomination.
Speaker 1: And you know, I like how we got into this
Speaker 1: of you expressing your disappointment. You're a Republican. You want
Speaker 1: it to be a party of ideas. You want it
Speaker 1: to be a party of policy, party of solution. I
Speaker 1: think in an ideal world democrats want that for the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party too. That they may get to there in
Speaker 1: different ways, but people want politicians to be serious actors
Speaker 1: and not just buffoons.
Speaker 2: But they also want I'm sorry to interrupt, but this
Speaker 2: was in particularly important because of Donald Trump. These Republicans
Speaker 2: seem to be a stark difference from Donald Trump, not
Speaker 2: from the Democrats. The Democrats have never had to deal
Speaker 2: with what the Republicans are dealing with, so.
Speaker 1: Why can't Nicki Haley break out. You know, She's interesting
Speaker 1: to me in the way that Chris Christie is, but
Speaker 1: interesting solely because both of them I think, sold a
Speaker 1: little bit of their soul to join the Trump administration
Speaker 1: after Trump emerged in twenty sixteen as the obvious front runner.
Speaker 1: Hailey was the UN ambassador, Christy was an advisor. They
Speaker 1: both had been vocal about being critical of him prior
Speaker 1: to Trump getting out in front of twenty sixteen, and
Speaker 1: now they're both pretty vocal about trying to carve out
Speaker 1: some sort of a position apart from him. But she
Speaker 1: really hasn't broken out with Republican voters. And what do
Speaker 1: you attribute that to?
Speaker 2: A few things? One is, in politics, there is is,
Speaker 2: and was is. And Ron DeSantis is the governor. He
Speaker 2: wasn't was the governor. And so it's very hard to
Speaker 2: do things and get the press attention because you're not
Speaker 2: an elective office. All you can do is try and
Speaker 2: get earned media. That's the first thing in general. But
Speaker 2: for Nick Haley specifically, and it applies to a couple
Speaker 2: of others. For folks who came out early in this primary,
Speaker 2: you had to come out swinging against Trump. I mean,
Speaker 2: one of the things that all of these candidates wasted
Speaker 2: was looking at Trump and taking them on in January,
Speaker 2: February up to March actually probably up to that first indictment,
Speaker 2: that's when he was the weakest. Ron DeSantis was pretty
Speaker 2: strong at that point too, coming out of an election
Speaker 2: before he did some really bad legislative stuff. But Nikki Haley,
Speaker 2: you know, her line was, I don't kick sideways, so
Speaker 2: that's stuck with me. But I don't know what else
Speaker 2: she's done now apparently she had her.
Speaker 1: For a second. Do you think voters tune in to
Speaker 1: that exact phenomenon you just identified that a candidate who
Speaker 1: isn't currently holding an office is less attractive than one who.
Speaker 2: Is, only because they don't have the press corps of
Speaker 2: their home state. For example, people aren't writing about you
Speaker 2: can't see what legislation they're doing. It's not that the
Speaker 2: people actually care so much, it's what comes with being
Speaker 2: a current office holder.
Speaker 1: The power of the incumbency exactly.
Speaker 2: And I think with Nikki Haley, she could have come out,
Speaker 2: she could have gone after Trump. She has a really
Speaker 2: good line in the debate is we have to be
Speaker 2: honest with the American people, and she should have been
Speaker 2: using that to go after Donald Trump the way she
Speaker 2: did on debate night. By the way, that debate was
Speaker 2: the single largest fundraising night for Governor Halley, so there.
Speaker 1: Are people paying attention. Do you think she has a
Speaker 1: chance to break out or do you think this is
Speaker 1: just a sideshow given how far Trump is ahead in
Speaker 1: the polls right now.
Speaker 2: I think there's always a chance to break out, But
Speaker 2: it's what she does. You need a combination for someone
Speaker 2: to beat Trump. You need them to look good and
Speaker 2: be a strong, viable alternative. And even if you have that,
Speaker 2: that's not going to help you a lot in the polls.
Speaker 2: But what you really need is to have Chris Christy
Speaker 2: keep banging away at Donald Trump, because when you start
Speaker 2: looking at the poll numbers and those numbers spread Joe
Speaker 2: Biden to Donald Trump go from it. Now they're pretty
Speaker 2: close to three four points, but what happens if they
Speaker 2: go to five, six, seven, eight points, then there's a
Speaker 2: hard electability fact there that people can't ignore.
Speaker 1: You mentioned that DeSantis stumbled because of poor legislative judgment,
Speaker 1: but one of the things I feel that he stumbled
Speaker 1: around on was he tried to nationalize what had worked
Speaker 1: for him in Florida, which was to pursue this quote
Speaker 1: unquote woke agenda on education, on public health, on any
Speaker 1: number of issues where it was easy for him to
Speaker 1: sell that relatively easy for him to sell that to
Speaker 1: Florida voters because he was doing it in very programmatic
Speaker 1: public settings that were very controlled. He wasn't giving himself
Speaker 1: access to the press. He had the state legislature behind him,
Speaker 1: He was in tune with the mood in Florida. But
Speaker 1: none of that necessarily transports into a national campaign. And
Speaker 1: I think to me, once he began campaigning nationally, it
Speaker 1: was like the Emperor has no clothes.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And usually you use the chance to have a
Speaker 2: legislative agenda passed for what would help you in a
Speaker 2: general election you want to become That's how I govern
Speaker 2: and use the rhetoric during the primary, and he just
Speaker 2: blew it. I'll tell you. Everyone makes a big deal
Speaker 2: about how many points DeSantis won by. He won by nineteen.
Speaker 2: Huge win, absolutely huge. But it's not that he got
Speaker 2: so many more Republican votes. It's at nine hundred thousand
Speaker 2: fewer Democrats showed up to vote on that line, and
Speaker 2: that was what made the difference. Now I'm not saying
Speaker 2: he wouldn't have won. But the other thing is I
Speaker 2: saw an Emerson College poll in February March with Florida
Speaker 2: voters independent women gave him a disapproval of sixty one percent.
Speaker 2: That's sky high, especially coming after a win. And that's
Speaker 2: because one of the reasons is he moved from saying oh,
Speaker 2: I passed a fifteen week abortion ban, which could fall
Speaker 2: in line with the conservative Republicans, to an extremist position
Speaker 2: of a six week abortion ban, which is basically banning
Speaker 2: abortion in his state. Oh and by the way, he
Speaker 2: did make an exception for rape and incests, but only
Speaker 2: if you file the police report. Who does that.
Speaker 1: Hold rape and incest exception to your draconian view of
Speaker 1: women's access to reproductive health. I think Pence is the
Speaker 1: only other person sort of charting that out on abortion
Speaker 1: among the current Republican I think most of the other
Speaker 1: Republicans are at fifteen weeks, but the Santis and Pencer,
Speaker 1: I think at this very extreme edge of that policy debate.
Speaker 1: He's also just not a great public speaker. He's a
Speaker 1: tree stump. I think he's odd with people. He doesn't
Speaker 1: make eye contact, he's not a buncular I don't think
Speaker 1: he enjoys being with other people too much.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what happens if when you're governing, you put
Speaker 2: yourself in a bubble and you only speak to Fox News.
Speaker 2: You have a press conference and you only let one
Speaker 2: media outlet in. You don't speak to the reporters in Tallahassee,
Speaker 2: where the capital is for legislative needs. He also just
Speaker 2: ticked off a lot of people, and you didn't hear
Speaker 2: the glowing endorsements that you typically do. People were off
Speaker 2: the bat, even if they were off the record going
Speaker 2: after him. But even in the debate, did you notice
Speaker 2: he gave his answer. He kind of had a scowl
Speaker 2: most of the time, but when he was done with
Speaker 2: his answer, you could see his teeth. I mean he
Speaker 2: was smiling like Okay, oh I'm done. Huh pause, smile.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I just kept looking at him and thinking tree stump,
Speaker 1: you know, the entire time he was up there. I
Speaker 1: think Pence is a more outgoing person than DeSantis. I
Speaker 1: think Penn enjoys talking to other people. But I also
Speaker 1: think he exists in a charisma free zone, which is
Speaker 1: an obvious factor dealing with Donald Trump. Trump has a
Speaker 1: million flaws. I think he's a dangerous figure on our
Speaker 1: public landscape. But for the people who adhere to his
Speaker 1: vision and support him, he's got authentic charisma and he's
Speaker 1: had it. He had it in television, charisma for a
Speaker 1: certain kind of thing, and Pence lacks that. Where do
Speaker 1: you see Pence breaking out of the pack after watching
Speaker 1: these debates?
Speaker 2: Well, first, that's why I think Trump picked Mike Pence
Speaker 2: because he was never going to be someone who is
Speaker 2: going to upstage him in any shape or form, not
Speaker 2: just with his words, but like you said, with the charisma.
Speaker 2: People weren't going to talk about Mike Pence with excitement.
Speaker 2: He's gradually going after Donald Trump. Very little, not enough.
Speaker 2: He did a great job of setting up the question,
Speaker 2: well who here doesn't think I did the right thing
Speaker 2: on January sixth, I mean, he basically threw it out there.
Speaker 2: But then something I just can't forget, and it's been
Speaker 2: with me and I think it's one of the legacies
Speaker 2: of trump Ism within the party. When it comes to
Speaker 2: being elected and serving in government, I can't use governance
Speaker 2: because the Republicans elective office have shown no interest in
Speaker 2: governance except for very, very few so Nikki Halen had
Speaker 2: given her answer on abortion, and she said, we have
Speaker 2: to agree on this, and so forth she went through
Speaker 2: her steps and she said, because we have to get
Speaker 2: a consensus, there's no way you're going to get sixty
Speaker 2: senators to ban abortion, and Mike Pence fire back saying
Speaker 2: consensus is the opposite of leadership. That is a mindset.
Speaker 2: That is a Donald Trump mindset. I will lead, I
Speaker 2: will lead you, I will lead you into so we
Speaker 2: fall off the cliff because he won't make the term
Speaker 2: because he wants to look like a leader. And it
Speaker 2: didn't get a lot of pick up in the media coverage,
Speaker 2: but it's something that's stuck with me because if that's
Speaker 2: where we are, if that's where the Republican Party is,
Speaker 2: they're not going to be governing for a very very
Speaker 2: long time.
Speaker 1: And that was clearly one thing I thought about that
Speaker 1: line was it was rehearsed before the debates. They gave
Speaker 1: him that line, They maybe gave him some thoughts about
Speaker 1: when he should deploy it, and the fact that he
Speaker 1: chose to deploy it then after having practiced in debate
Speaker 1: prep with it was very telling to me too. Yeah,
Speaker 1: especially because you know his former boss tried to have
Speaker 1: him murdered, so you would think that he'd be a
Speaker 1: little more strident in criticizing some of the decisions Donald
Speaker 1: Trump makes.
Speaker 2: And he has the record. Well that's the thing. Just
Speaker 2: take on Donald Trump. You're never going to get those
Speaker 2: Trump people, So just put him away, don't even try
Speaker 2: and use your record and go forward because otherwise Pence
Speaker 2: is nothing there because he has nothing to do and.
Speaker 1: To reach out to that other seventy percent of Republicans
Speaker 1: who want something other than Donald Trump. M that Ramaswami.
Speaker 1: You know, I just sort of see him as a
Speaker 1: tireless cartoon figure who's basking in the attention presidential candidates
Speaker 1: get when they have no experience, but by virtue of
Speaker 1: quirks in our system and their own odd magnetism or
Speaker 1: points of view, they get a moment in the sun
Speaker 1: that happens with both parties. What do you make of
Speaker 1: him and the fact that they gave him a pole
Speaker 1: position essentially almost directly at center stage during the debate,
Speaker 1: Hi wil.
Speaker 2: Tim, we're both old enough to remember that. In twenty twelve,
Speaker 2: Michelle Bachman won the Iowas straw pol when she was
Speaker 2: running in twenty eleven. I remember when Ben Carson was
Speaker 2: at the head of the polls back in twenty fifteen.
Speaker 2: These things happen. If Ramaswami makes it to the third debate,
Speaker 2: he will probably be the very end of the stage.
Speaker 2: This is his time in the sun. He's entertaining for
Speaker 2: no other reason. I think people talk about him because
Speaker 2: he was entertaining his debate prep was apparently playing tennis shirtless.
Speaker 2: I don't understand how anyone could take him seriously. He
Speaker 2: is just a cartoon figure to me.
Speaker 1: I think he's trying out to be Trump's VP. I
Speaker 1: feel like that's his agenda.
Speaker 2: Which we just discussed that. One of the reasons why
Speaker 2: Penn Scott it was because he had no personality and
Speaker 2: the last thing Donald Trump wants is someone who could
Speaker 2: out charisma him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this guy clearly does not understand who Donald Trump is.
Speaker 1: He actually wants tree stumps in the White House. He
Speaker 1: doesn't want people who've got magnetism at all. Lastly, Chris Christy,
Speaker 1: I get you know, he played the role of flamethrower.
Speaker 1: I have been happy to see him be willing to
Speaker 1: speak his mind about Trump and trump Ism, but he
Speaker 1: hasn't really carved out much on a policy path beyond
Speaker 1: being the most open Trump critic. I guess during the
Speaker 1: campaign season thus far, what do you think of his
Speaker 1: performance on the debate stage and his possibilities.
Speaker 2: I think you laid it out perfectly, and with Chris Christie.
Speaker 2: He can't be the prosecutor going after Donald Trump without
Speaker 2: Donald Trump there, so he made the lines he had to.
Speaker 2: He did play some good defense at points, like when
Speaker 2: ran Assami was going after him. I just think that
Speaker 2: there's no way the Republicans are going to give him
Speaker 2: the nomination. He could come in though in New Hampshire
Speaker 2: he could come in second or third. It wouldn't surprise me,
Speaker 2: mostly because in New Hampshire they have an open primary
Speaker 2: where Republicans vote in the Republican primary, but independents can
Speaker 2: vote in the Democrat or Republican primary. And since there's
Speaker 2: no real Democratic party in New Hampshire, because they're changing
Speaker 2: when the elections are being held, you may see a
Speaker 2: flood of independence, which is about thirty eight in the state,
Speaker 2: come into that and that could help Christy, but I
Speaker 2: don't think it gets into where he needs to go.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to dwell on Hutchinson and Bergham. I'm
Speaker 1: sorry our show's short and no one really seems to
Speaker 1: care enough about them, But I think we've zeroed in
Speaker 1: on the people who may or may not mount a
Speaker 1: challenge to Trump. I want to ask you to focus
Speaker 1: on that moment during the debate when all of the
Speaker 1: candidates were asked if they would support the indicted former
Speaker 1: president if he was the Republican nominee. Everyone raised their hands,
Speaker 1: but Hutchinson, bless his law abiding soul, Chris Christy did
Speaker 1: a weird like half hand raised, and DeSantis actually looked
Speaker 1: around to see what everyone else was doing before he
Speaker 1: raised his hand, which I just thought was a pathetic
Speaker 1: lack of courage, especially given how he's been trying to
Speaker 1: carve out this place as the guy who's strong and wilful.
Speaker 1: But what did that moment tell you about what you
Speaker 1: were seeing on the debate stage.
Speaker 2: I couldn't vote for any of those candidates, huh, by
Speaker 2: the way him. I want to be able to vote
Speaker 2: for a Republican I just haven't been able to because
Speaker 2: I haven't found any that are credible and running serious
Speaker 2: campaigns and doing serious things. They all are following Trump
Speaker 2: and if you follow Trump. In my world, I consider
Speaker 2: that disqualifying.
Speaker 1: I admire you, Susan, in this crazy age we're in
Speaker 1: because the primary voter in the Republican Party writ large
Speaker 1: doesn't care if Donald Trump is burning the Constitution or
Speaker 1: targeting the vulnerable. They just wanted to be present again regardless. Obviously,
Speaker 1: there's I think a majority of other Americans who think
Speaker 1: differently about it. But my thesis of the case has
Speaker 1: been that this works for him in the primary. It's
Speaker 1: going to be tested sorely in the national election, and
Speaker 1: the Republicans are and that's why I keep calling it
Speaker 1: a hostage video, because they're not taking the steps they
Speaker 1: need to break out of his grip, and they're going
Speaker 1: to pay a price, I think at the netal level
Speaker 1: if the Democrats are smart about how they campaign.
Speaker 2: Great point on that note.
Speaker 1: Let's take a break, and then I want to come
Speaker 1: back and talk with you about Donald Trump's vaudeville act.
Speaker 1: With Tucker Carlson on Debate Night, We're back with the
Speaker 1: wonderful Susan del Percio, a Republican strategist and always a
Speaker 1: treat to talk to. We've been talking about the first
Speaker 1: Republican debate, Susan, I now want to turn to the
Speaker 1: Trump Carlson gabfest that was meant to bigfoot the Republican debate.
Speaker 1: But just to get us off theme for one second,
Speaker 1: I want to ask you about Rudy Giuliani, who's now
Speaker 1: been indicted along with Trump, was a mastermind of the
Speaker 1: dangerous and Bonker's effort to steal the twenty twenty election
Speaker 1: for Trump. As someone who once worked closely with America's
Speaker 1: mayor saw him become a fixture in the American imagination
Speaker 1: after nine to eleven. What do you make of what's
Speaker 1: happened to him?
Speaker 2: Well, I've consistently just felt like, what a shame, what
Speaker 2: a downfall. He has changed so much, I can't describe it.
Speaker 2: It's every aspect of him. It's not just that he
Speaker 2: defended Trump, it's how he defended Trump. It's the nastiness.
Speaker 2: He now goes around with just a mean scowl all
Speaker 2: the time. He's stuck in Trump World. And I've got
Speaker 2: to tell you, I know people disagreed with Rudy Giuliani
Speaker 2: when he was mayor, but most people I know this
Speaker 2: because he got elected with sixty percent of the vote reelected.
Speaker 2: They thought he was doing a good job and making
Speaker 2: the city manageable. He did clean up New York City,
Speaker 2: and on nine to eleven, he was there as a
Speaker 2: true leader should be. And it was a result, I believe,
Speaker 2: of Trump giving him a little hat on the back
Speaker 2: in twenty fifteen when he said something really nasty about
Speaker 2: Hillary Clinton and then he invited Rudy to be on
Speaker 2: the plane. And then Rudy's like, oh, relevant again, and
Speaker 2: that's what started to turn him.
Speaker 1: It's sad, so that deep neediness to be in the spotlight,
Speaker 1: to be needed, to be seen as a player. He's
Speaker 1: that insecure.
Speaker 2: And that being said, I think if it wasn't enough
Speaker 2: that Donald Trump has spent twenty million dollars on lawyers
Speaker 2: and still hasn't paid Rudy Giuliani, I think going through
Speaker 2: that jail the other day for Rudy was devastating. And
Speaker 2: I do believe. I believe this before he went to
Speaker 2: the jail to get booked. I think he's a perfect
Speaker 2: case for flipping. He does not want to go to prison.
Speaker 2: And you know there's even talk among like inner circle
Speaker 2: people like he remembers who he put.
Speaker 1: Away and how he went about it, which was to
Speaker 1: squeeze the people at the bottom to go after the
Speaker 1: people at the top. So he knows he's going to
Speaker 1: get squeezed.
Speaker 2: And he also knows who's in the prison system and
Speaker 2: that he's vulnerable.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that Trump's really not going to help him.
Speaker 1: Trump has an helping him with his legal bills. Trump
Speaker 1: will cut him loose as soon as he can.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Speaking of Trump, he's been indicted four times ninety one
Speaker 1: felony counts, including trying to sabotage the election. He decides
Speaker 1: not to attend the first Republican debate. Fox courts him
Speaker 1: mightily to become part of the political process. He ignores
Speaker 1: it and instead does a little sit down in a
Speaker 1: cabin with Tucker Carlson. And it was about forty five
Speaker 1: minutes long. I'm sorry to say I watched the whole
Speaker 1: thing because I had to. But I'd really love to
Speaker 1: know what your big takeaway was from the Trump Carlson
Speaker 1: puppet show.
Speaker 2: Oh, there's so many And again, I like, you had
Speaker 2: to watch it, so it was not something I enjoyed
Speaker 2: in any shape or measure. But first of all, originally
Speaker 2: I thought it was going to be true counterprogramming, meaning
Speaker 2: it would be live so he can respond to what's
Speaker 2: going on in the debate. Now, that could have had
Speaker 2: a lot of fireworks. But I think one of the
Speaker 2: reasons he had to tape it and also wipe on
Speaker 2: Trump was not on that debate stage is his lawyers.
Speaker 2: Just like the lawyers prevented him from doing a big
Speaker 2: press conference on Monday to reveal all that was canceled,
Speaker 2: that was him listening to his lawyers. I think he's
Speaker 2: got to be surrounded all the time. And that interview,
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's an interview, that discussion that war.
Speaker 1: Comody had come.
Speaker 2: Yeah, my guess is that the lawyers were like right
Speaker 2: next to him, like, don't say that, don't say.
Speaker 1: That, especially because also he's gotten in trouble because of
Speaker 1: his offhand remarks on TV and the EG and Carol
Speaker 1: case and in the federal prosecutions around nine to eleven
Speaker 1: and the classifyed documents. So he's already created defense problem
Speaker 1: for himself by being on TV.
Speaker 2: So if we would have seen that conversation ten years
Speaker 2: ago among two people maybe of some prominence, but not
Speaker 2: the level of Tucker and Trump, we would have said,
Speaker 2: oh my god, right room, conspiracy what rabbit hole did
Speaker 2: you go down to find that wacky video?
Speaker 1: Do you know? I was talking to someone in the
Speaker 1: office about old Saturday Night Live skits, and I remember
Speaker 1: one like right after Henry Kissinger's memoir came out of
Speaker 1: his time in the White House with Nixon, and he
Speaker 1: revealed that Nixon was drinking too much during the Watergate
Speaker 1: crisis and at one point asked him to kneel and
Speaker 1: pray with him, and Saturday Night Live did just this
Speaker 1: spoof of that of you know, I think it was
Speaker 1: Dan Ackroyd as Richard Nixon going, you know, Henry kneel
Speaker 1: down next to me and pray, and they're in front
Speaker 1: of a Abraham Lincoln portrait that begins talking to them,
Speaker 1: and everyone was like, gosh, this is so crazy. Look
Speaker 1: what was going on in the White House and that era,
Speaker 1: Like it's so quaint and silly, because in the Trump era,
Speaker 1: these looney bizarre things happened publicly all the time, including
Speaker 1: during the Carlson Trump conversation.
Speaker 2: Yeahs Luoneyton. And again, I think a conversation is just
Speaker 2: I wish there was a better word I could use,
Speaker 2: because a conversation means an exchange of ideas of some sort.
Speaker 2: But this was just full of hate and anger. And
Speaker 2: I will say this, There's one thing that I'm always
Speaker 2: aware of, and it really irks me, or I shouldn't
Speaker 2: say it's beyond irks me, it concerns me. Is the
Speaker 2: talk of violence that was used. You know, we're talking
Speaker 2: about elections. We know what happens when we talk about violence.
Speaker 2: We've seen you know, Ruby the election worker in Georgia,
Speaker 2: like people going after we know what it is to
Speaker 2: see people showing up with guns in front of Supreme
Speaker 2: Court justices home. These are things that truly concern me
Speaker 2: because they're right at that pillar of like shaking the
Speaker 2: foundation of our democracy.
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you focused on that because I think
Speaker 1: that is the core takeaway from their exchange, because Carlson
Speaker 1: came at it in three different ways. You know, he said,
Speaker 1: early on the left protested against you, and then they
Speaker 1: impeached you, and now they've indicted you. It's not gonna work.
Speaker 1: They're probably just going to kill you, right, And Trump
Speaker 1: didn't really bite fully, he went off into one of
Speaker 1: his weird meandering in the forest thoughts, and then Carlson
Speaker 1: came back to it again and said, you know, don't
Speaker 1: you think they really want to kill you? And Trump
Speaker 1: kind of well, they're all animals, and then he moved on.
Speaker 1: And then towards the very end of the interview, he
Speaker 1: asked Trump if he thought there'd be a civil war,
Speaker 1: and Trump finally bit and he engaged with him, and
Speaker 1: that gave him a moment to reflect on January sixth,
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, which Trump called a sort of a loving,
Speaker 1: beautiful moment, which it was certainly not. But then went
Speaker 1: on to say that among his supporters he sees both
Speaker 1: passion and hatred and he thinks that's a bad combination.
Speaker 1: And Tucker Carlson agrees and said, you're right, that is
Speaker 1: a bad combination. But of course, Tucker Carlson and Donald
Speaker 1: Trump jointly have fattened their wallets, their egos, and their
Speaker 1: influence by stoking hatred and passion among viewers and listeners.
Speaker 1: Do you think we're headed for.
Speaker 2: Violent Well, let me give you this number. Thirty three percent.
Speaker 2: That number is the amount of people who believe it
Speaker 2: is okay to sometimes engage in violence political violence. That
Speaker 2: came from the Common Good. It's a nonprofit, nonpartisan group
Speaker 2: that looks for solutions to problems, works with independence.
Speaker 1: And that's a survey of voters recently of Bipartisan survey.
Speaker 1: What was the sample group.
Speaker 2: So here's what I can tell you. It was their
Speaker 2: first annual index. They did it in October and it
Speaker 2: was basically starting to quantify and track levels of division
Speaker 2: in our country. It was conducted by Emerson College of
Speaker 2: a national multi model survey of one thousand people. Data
Speaker 2: was collected October eighth through eleventh, twenty twenty two. But
Speaker 2: thirty three percent like that was jarring to me. By
Speaker 2: the way, forty three percent believe a civil war is likely.
Speaker 2: That's the thinking. Yeah, that's why it so dangerous to
Speaker 2: keep lighting these matches. It's going to cause a wildfire
Speaker 2: at some point. And it may not be a huge
Speaker 2: group this time, but there are going to be a
Speaker 2: lot along Wilfs out there and people thinking about crazy stuff.
Speaker 1: We should remember that there are more weapons in the
Speaker 1: hands of individuals in the United States than the police
Speaker 1: force has.
Speaker 2: I mean, I just go back to Gretchen Whitmore and
Speaker 2: how there was an assassination tempt basically being plotted away
Speaker 2: and it was stopped, thankfully, But they were moving along
Speaker 2: with that plan, and in Michigan you can carry long
Speaker 2: guns to the.
Speaker 1: Capitol, which in fact they did exactly.
Speaker 2: So the potential for violence in this country is just
Speaker 2: right there every time. But more importantly, going back to
Speaker 2: the conversation, the fact that that's how they think. I
Speaker 2: don't know if they do it for ratings or just
Speaker 2: to excite people, but they both care about what sells,
Speaker 2: and they believe that violence sells also.
Speaker 1: I think they believe that creating the idea that Trump
Speaker 1: is somehow a martyr right and the possible victim of
Speaker 1: a legal system that's holding him accountable, because by all accounts,
Speaker 1: he looks like a serial criminal and he's an insurrectionist,
Speaker 1: and the system has finally come around to holding him
Speaker 1: into account. Carlson and Trump have an interest in saying, oh,
Speaker 1: he's just a martyr for the cause, the MAGA cause.
Speaker 2: Can you do me a favor please. As I was
Speaker 2: listening to it, I was kind of doing a few
Speaker 2: other things, cleaning up whatever. And this whole thing with
Speaker 2: the Panama Canal and China is so bewildering to me
Speaker 2: because I just know it, like in my sense of
Speaker 2: living in this world that it's not true. But what
Speaker 2: kind of craziness is this?
Speaker 1: Well again, you know you were talking about how smart
Speaker 1: and shrewd and important is Carlson and Trump to sell things.
Speaker 1: And Trump came back to that in this conversation in
Speaker 1: twenty sixteen. Well, actually in twenty fifteen when he rolled
Speaker 1: down the escalator at Trump Tower, Remember he sort of
Speaker 1: laid out this very racist and dark vision about immigrants,
Speaker 1: their criminals, their rapists, some of them might be nice people.
Speaker 1: And during the Carlson conversation he said his primary issue
Speaker 1: was border. He didn't call it the border or immigration,
Speaker 1: he just said border, said that it basically everyone coming
Speaker 1: from Latin America, primarily Guatemala, were criminals. So he was
Speaker 1: ringing that bell again. And I think he got a
Speaker 1: lot of traction at twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen around
Speaker 1: the Yellow Menace scare with China, as well as the
Speaker 1: fact that a lot of working class jobs did go overseas.
Speaker 1: And I think working class Americans feel deeply aggrieved that
Speaker 1: neither Republicans nor Democrats have authentically provided solutions to folks
Speaker 1: who are in industries that have gotten chewed up amid
Speaker 1: the technological revolution. And so I think Trump came back
Speaker 1: to that on China, but only as Trump could to
Speaker 1: say that China controls the panelm Canal. That is not true.
Speaker 1: China runs a couple of businesses that handle services at
Speaker 1: either end of the canal itself, but Panama itself, the
Speaker 1: country where the canal is, controls the Panama Canal. And
Speaker 1: it's just untrue. But I think Trump doesn't count on
Speaker 1: his closest supporters getting to the facts. He counts in
Speaker 1: them being alarming. The idea that China controls a transit point,
Speaker 1: and that was shocking to me. It was very shocking.
Speaker 1: And in the same way that they started, the departure
Speaker 1: point for their conversation was talking about Jeffrey Epstein, And
Speaker 1: as Tucker Carlson said, you know, I'm not someone who
Speaker 1: traffics and conspiracy theories, but boy, don't you think Jeffrey
Speaker 1: Epstein was murdered in jail? And that's a nuts way
Speaker 1: to begin a conversation with someone running for president?
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, I think while it was leading to
Speaker 2: the bigger question, do you think they'll come after you.
Speaker 1: Susan, I want to take another quick break and then
Speaker 1: we'll come right back. We're back with Susan del Percio,
Speaker 1: a veteran Republican strategist. We've been talking about the First
Speaker 1: Republican Debate, the Trump Carlson Vaudeville Act, and Trump's firm
Speaker 1: hold on the GOP's primary voters. So Sudan, how do
Speaker 1: you think this is all going to shake out for
Speaker 1: the Republican Party short.
Speaker 2: Term twenty twenty four. If Trump's the nominee, he loses,
Speaker 2: I think it could be so bad. Between trumping at
Speaker 2: the top of the ticket and the issue of women's
Speaker 2: healthcare and their right to control their body is the
Speaker 2: only issue that can turn Mitch McConnell from potentially being
Speaker 2: majority leader, which is thought quite possible because of the
Speaker 2: way the map works. The Democrats need to win six seats,
Speaker 2: is basically what they're fighting for, and the Republican should
Speaker 2: take control of the Senate. But under these circumstances, I
Speaker 2: think it's possible that the Democrats sweep immediately all three House,
Speaker 2: Senate and White House. Because Donald Trump is a problem
Speaker 2: for every rept Republican running. And it doesn't matter if
Speaker 2: you say I don't believe in conspiracy theories, I believe
Speaker 2: that Biden won. If you go against Trump on every issue,
Speaker 2: But you're running down ticket from him, You're still lassoed
Speaker 2: with Trump, and you're still talking about it because people
Speaker 2: are going to always ask you, oh, Trump said this,
Speaker 2: do you agree? Because you're a Republican now Looking a
Speaker 2: little long term, I used to say twenty twenty eight
Speaker 2: was going to be the year we'd see a lot
Speaker 2: to shake out. But I also back then didn't see
Speaker 2: Donald Trump running for president again. So Donald Trump, when
Speaker 2: he was elected did something very smart. He reached out
Speaker 2: to all the Republican state committees. And it didn't matter
Speaker 2: if it was an important state or New York or California,
Speaker 2: places where Republicans have no chance of winning any statewide races.
Speaker 2: But he reached out to the Republican committee members and
Speaker 2: the chairman, chair members and base. He got them to
Speaker 2: stack because he had the support, you know, or they
Speaker 2: supported him. I should say that's who's running state government,
Speaker 2: that's who's choosing local candidates, that's who's getting you know,
Speaker 2: whether it's congress or city council. I thought enough losses
Speaker 2: would cycle those people out because people are going to
Speaker 2: screen for better candidates and stronger leadership. But they're still
Speaker 2: there and they're going to be there in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 2: They're just runing twenty twenty four out. So I think
Speaker 2: it's going to take another eight years to really flush
Speaker 2: out the system. But it doesn't mean incremental changes can't
Speaker 2: happen and certain states can't change, you know, maybe a
Speaker 2: Senate seat here or there, and maybe get someone with
Speaker 2: some common sense. It's okay to be super conservative as
Speaker 2: long as you're not, you know, in the steps.
Speaker 1: Of just principled and law abiding about it.
Speaker 2: Imagine that be lawbin. But so I think that's where
Speaker 2: it's possible. But like people always say, Susan, you always
Speaker 2: trust the Republican Party, and yet you call yourself a
Speaker 2: Republican strategist. Why aren't you a Democrat or at least
Speaker 2: an independent. I'm like, because this is a two party
Speaker 2: system country, whether you want it to be or not.
Speaker 2: I understand the independent and third party candidates, but really
Speaker 2: it's run by Democrats and Republicans. And if there are
Speaker 2: no Republicans talking about governance, at least speaking up and
Speaker 2: having a voice out there, then we all lay down.
Speaker 2: And what's the point of that?
Speaker 1: And presumably some of the values you hold we've never
Speaker 1: gotten specifically into sort of the laundry list of why
Speaker 1: you consider yourself a Republican. But if it's classic Republican
Speaker 1: values lower taxes, less regulation, a strong foreign policy, tilting
Speaker 1: towards conservative uncertain social issues, or a plurality of them,
Speaker 1: maybe not.
Speaker 2: Okay, maybe not. But I actually think like.
Speaker 1: For example, so you're maybe a Rockefeller Republican.
Speaker 2: Exactly, but I would argue that for example, gay marriage
Speaker 2: or abortion. I'll take the libertarians stand on that, saying
Speaker 2: it's actually conservative to say stay out of my bedroom
Speaker 2: and stay out of my body. That's actually a very
Speaker 2: conservative point of view. I know, it's not what the.
Speaker 1: Last conservatism, yea, not contemporary conservative. What are Republican voters
Speaker 1: get from the GOP that they aren't getting from Democrats?
Speaker 1: Do you think there's something that Democrats could do without
Speaker 1: giving up their core value to court Republicans or is
Speaker 1: that just always going to be a bridge too far
Speaker 1: on both sides.
Speaker 2: No. I think you could see democrats moderate Democrats start
Speaker 2: making inroads, but it has to be in a way
Speaker 2: where frankly, the top of the tickets not Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: I mean right now, the leadership there with Biden at
Speaker 2: the top is something that is going to hurt turnout
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. And I'm so who did Republicans
Speaker 2: and independence for Biden in the Lincoln Project. So I
Speaker 2: was trying to get those Republicans to say, like, I
Speaker 2: know you voted fir him twenty sixteen, but you can't
Speaker 2: do it again. You know what he is, vote for Biden.
Speaker 2: That was the difference in the election. I'm not say
Speaker 2: my effort like there were a lot of groups doing.
Speaker 1: When I'm getting theme that I that theme.
Speaker 2: And frankly, now what concerns me is that those people
Speaker 2: aren't going to show up in twenty twenty four because
Speaker 2: they really can't stand Biden. They really can't. They said,
Speaker 2: I'll give him four years. I don't like him, but
Speaker 2: I'll give him my vote. There's no way I could
Speaker 2: vote for Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: And they can't stand him. Why.
Speaker 2: It's a great question. I think they take the most
Speaker 2: liberal policies he has and amplifies them. I don't think
Speaker 2: they realize that Joe Biden has been one of the
Speaker 2: most bipartisan presidents.
Speaker 1: And a moderate, a moderate certainly with his own party.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I do think age is a problem for him.
Speaker 2: But I also could say.
Speaker 1: There's a lack of confidence Kamala Harris as his potential successor.
Speaker 1: I think that's also a problem they're dealing with.
Speaker 2: And ask Democrats why they're not excited to go out
Speaker 2: and vote for them. I mean, if you can't get
Speaker 2: a lot of Democrats excited, it's gonna be a lot
Speaker 2: harder to get a couple of Republicans now.
Speaker 1: Having said all that, it wasn't like Joe Biden in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty was a young man ball of fire tyro
Speaker 1: rushing across the political landscape, and people still voted for
Speaker 1: him for the reason. I think one of the reasons
Speaker 1: they voted for him was what you just identified that
Speaker 1: it also was a vote against another Trump term. Why
Speaker 1: should we think that voted are any less alarmed by
Speaker 1: Trump now than they were in twenty twenty If they
Speaker 1: were willing to sort of hold their noses and vote
Speaker 1: for someone they didn't have complete confidence in II Joe
Speaker 1: Biden in twenty twenty, Why isn't it incredible argument to
Speaker 1: be made that the House is burning justice ferociously right now.
Speaker 1: Plus Trump's been indicted, his methods and his predilections have
Speaker 1: all been made very public again. Why wouldn't that message
Speaker 1: work now?
Speaker 2: Well, is it enough to get people to turn out? No,
Speaker 2: that's the problem.
Speaker 1: Why not?
Speaker 2: Some of it is going after Trump is but I
Speaker 2: actually think the abortion issue will be the factor that
Speaker 2: helps Democrats get over the line. That will be the
Speaker 2: primary issue and democracy. But the other thing was people said,
Speaker 2: all right, we need to change this. Joe Biden will
Speaker 2: basically be the pivot to normalcy. Not Joe Biden's fault.
Speaker 2: But we are not in normalcy. So then you give
Speaker 2: up on it. So you say, you know what, maybe
Speaker 2: this whole system has gone to hell in a handbasket
Speaker 2: and that's it, Like I give up, or I just
Speaker 2: can't vote for Biden. It in no way I'm voting
Speaker 2: for Trump. But I'm just gonna sit this one out.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Biden's messengers have been focusing properly
Speaker 1: on where the economy is. You know, job growth has
Speaker 1: been great, Inflation has been a nightmare, but that is cooling.
Speaker 1: And the US has proved to be the most resilient
Speaker 1: global post COVID economy of any And I think they've
Speaker 1: run good foreign policy in Ukraine, et cetera, et cetera.
Speaker 1: I agree, but I think Republicans have successfully weaponized wokeism,
Speaker 1: and some of that gets I think, ruthlessly and inaccurately
Speaker 1: deployed nationally, and Biden suffers from some of that.
Speaker 2: And another thing that I believe you're going to see
Speaker 2: happen and it's going to hurt turnout for Democrats is
Speaker 2: the mortgage rates. They're the highest they've been in twenty
Speaker 2: four years, and that means people can't buy a home.
Speaker 2: That to them is the sense of am I doing well?
Speaker 2: And it's not because for the price of the house,
Speaker 2: but with the mortgage, it's just too much of a
Speaker 2: heavy lift. And when I did a lot of polling
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, I was surprised to see affordable
Speaker 2: housing creeping up there. And then we broke it out
Speaker 2: and saw home ownership, and then we focus groups on it,
Speaker 2: and when you saw people frustrated they can't afford a home,
Speaker 2: like they're working two jobs and I can't like it's
Speaker 2: what breaks them, and it's what says, like the system,
Speaker 2: who cares? They're all bad.
Speaker 1: We could do a whole show on housing. I will
Speaker 1: point out that even with these escalated interest rates on houses,
Speaker 1: the rates twenty years ago were considered historically low at
Speaker 1: the time. We've just been through this era of such
Speaker 1: rock bottom rates that everyone could get mortgages. I mean,
Speaker 1: we would go down a rabbit hole on that as
Speaker 1: a topic, but it's a great one for you to
Speaker 1: bring up. I want to ask you one last question.
Speaker 1: I always like to ask people at the end of
Speaker 1: the show what they've learned, and I wanted to ask
Speaker 1: you what you've learned from this recent round of Republican
Speaker 1: debates and Trump's side show that you didn't know prior
Speaker 1: to that occurring.
Speaker 2: I know now that the Republicans, other than Trump running
Speaker 2: will not offer a vision of their own or for
Speaker 2: the country's future. Sure, I was really hoping to see
Speaker 2: that in the debate. I really thought that was a
Speaker 2: great opportunity, and I realized they just aren't the caliber
Speaker 2: of people we need running this country. When it comes
Speaker 2: to that Tucker Carlson interview with Donald Trump, the violence,
Speaker 2: I didn't expect it to be so violent. Like the
Speaker 2: talk it was threaded throughout, and even Trump's responses, you know,
Speaker 2: the way he spoke, I knew it would be him
Speaker 2: just spouting off and saying, you know, I did everything perfectly.
Speaker 2: I just didn't quite expect.
Speaker 1: That, Susan. We are out of time and I could
Speaker 1: have kept talking to you for at least another hour.
Speaker 1: So I'm grateful that you came and spent a little
Speaker 1: bit of time with me today.
Speaker 2: Oh great to be with you, Tim, Thank you for
Speaker 2: having me.
Speaker 1: Susan Delpercio is a Republican political strategist and an advisor
Speaker 1: to a variety of political and corporate campaigns. You can
Speaker 1: find her on LinkedIn and on Twitter at del Percio
Speaker 1: s Here at Crash Course, we believe the collisions can
Speaker 1: be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising, and always instructive. In today's
Speaker 1: Crash Course, I learned that at least six of the
Speaker 1: seven Republican challengers to Donald Trump for the presidential nomination
Speaker 1: lack the courage to stand up for their own convictions
Speaker 1: and condemn Donald Trump for being a serial lawbreaker. What
Speaker 1: did you learn? We'd love to hear from you. You
Speaker 1: can tweet at the Bloomberg Opinion handle at Opinion or
Speaker 1: me at Tim O'Brien using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course.
Speaker 1: You can also subscribe to our show wherever you're listening
Speaker 1: right now, and please leave us a review, it helps
Speaker 1: more people find the show. This episode was produced by
Speaker 1: the indispensable Anna Maserakas, Moses Ondem and me. Our supervising
Speaker 1: producer is Magnus Henrickson, and we had editing help from Sagebauman,
Speaker 1: Katie Boyce, Jeff Grocott, Mike Nize, and Christine Dandon by Lart.
Speaker 1: Blake Maples does our sound engineering and our original theme
Speaker 1: song was composed by Luis Garra. I'm Tim O'Brien. We'll
Speaker 1: be back next week with another Crash course