1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:14,280
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, the.

2
00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:19,319
Speaker 2: Single best idea with a bonus explanation. Today we're going

3
00:00:19,400 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 2: to talk about what's going on in Europe, and we're

4
00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:24,079
Speaker 2: going to talk about what's going on in America. This

5
00:00:24,200 --> 00:00:28,080
Speaker 2: strange thing uncertainty. And instead of diving right into the

6
00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:33,800
Speaker 2: absolute brilliance of Catherine Nice of Pgium, out of Queen Victoria,

7
00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,279
Speaker 2: out of London, I should say she was in our

8
00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,159
Speaker 2: studios in New York and she's just absolutely definitive on

9
00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,560
Speaker 2: the continent of Europe. A little bit of explanation. Europe

10
00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:47,880
Speaker 2: in the modern form has a monetary union, the European

11
00:00:47,960 --> 00:00:50,479
Speaker 2: Central Bank. It's like the FED. It's not what it

12
00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,760
Speaker 2: is like the FED. All agree that what is missing

13
00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,960
Speaker 2: in Europe, much like a modern system, is some form

14
00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 2: of fiscal union. Mississippi and Michigan are on the same page.

15
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:08,000
Speaker 2: Finland and Spain are not on the same fiscal page.

16
00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,600
Speaker 2: And with all that's going on, pushed by the Trump

17
00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:16,320
Speaker 2: administration on Ukraine with a needed budget expansion in Europe,

18
00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:22,400
Speaker 2: they don't have the apparatus in place to affect whatever

19
00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:25,480
Speaker 2: the fiscal outcome is. And that was the heat of

20
00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:29,800
Speaker 2: the discussion today. I want to emphasize the Bloomberg coverage.

21
00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:34,240
Speaker 2: The German yields did move out priced down, yield higher,

22
00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:39,400
Speaker 2: but it wasn't in an inflammatory manner. The entry Europe

23
00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:45,160
Speaker 2: spreads did not move. This is critical. Germany, Italy didn't move.

24
00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 2: They all sort of lifted away from however you want

25
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:53,320
Speaker 2: to measure their yields, say against the United States yields.

26
00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:57,800
Speaker 2: The press conference at laguard Gave was absolutely fascinating and historic.

27
00:01:57,880 --> 00:02:00,000
Speaker 2: Back to whe jackson Hole speech of two years ago

28
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,520
Speaker 2: on my conversation with her at that time. Here now

29
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 2: from Pgium, Catherine Nice.

30
00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,120
Speaker 3: The issue for Europe is not the lack of money.

31
00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,680
Speaker 3: The issue in Europe is not the lack of you know,

32
00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:16,640
Speaker 3: general consensus about how these funds should be spent. The

33
00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 3: problem in Europe is there is no fiscal mechanism in

34
00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:24,920
Speaker 3: place to allow this spending to happen. So what is

35
00:02:25,000 --> 00:02:28,399
Speaker 3: so important about this signal that we're seeing from Germany

36
00:02:28,840 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 3: is not just the size, but what it means for

37
00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:37,640
Speaker 3: Europe working together, having leadership in its largest, most economically

38
00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:40,959
Speaker 3: important economy in terms of going forward, and I think

39
00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:45,359
Speaker 3: everything else. You know, provided this is planned and executed,

40
00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,399
Speaker 3: you know, properly. There there are risks clearly around doing

41
00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,480
Speaker 3: big stuff. I think everything else is going to fall

42
00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:52,160
Speaker 3: into line.

43
00:02:52,440 --> 00:02:55,760
Speaker 2: Catherne Nice, doctor Nie out of the University of British

44
00:02:55,760 --> 00:02:58,560
Speaker 2: Columbia working with PGUM and just thank you, thank You're

45
00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,800
Speaker 2: just brilliant today on the cacophity of Europe that's so

46
00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:06,080
Speaker 2: foreign to so many of us here in America. The

47
00:03:06,200 --> 00:03:09,200
Speaker 2: number one book I give to the kids is Against

48
00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 2: the Gods Peter Bernstein, and it is a tour to

49
00:03:12,600 --> 00:03:18,880
Speaker 2: force as we stagger from risk to uncertainty and then

50
00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,960
Speaker 2: in a more modern sense, this word ambiguity. And I'm

51
00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:24,320
Speaker 2: going to go into the details right now, but all

52
00:03:24,320 --> 00:03:26,680
Speaker 2: you need to know is risk is some form of

53
00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:35,040
Speaker 2: measurable mystery. Uncertainty is basically not measurable. Uncertainty is something

54
00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:37,880
Speaker 2: that we really can't get our hands on. For Constance

55
00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 2: Hunter expert on this EIU, the uncertainty now is a

56
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:45,720
Speaker 2: changing landscape. Just as I tape this, I see that

57
00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:49,600
Speaker 2: the Secretary of Commerce says the President quote likely to

58
00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:55,280
Speaker 2: defer tariffs on all US MCA goods. I would suggest

59
00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,200
Speaker 2: that's a game changer. We'll let you decide after you

60
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:02,160
Speaker 2: listen to single best idea. Here's Constance Hunter of EIU.

61
00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:05,960
Speaker 4: We don't know where we're going to land, and until

62
00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,000
Speaker 4: that point, we have to come up with another way

63
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,760
Speaker 4: to ascertain the impact of all of this uncertainty on

64
00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,320
Speaker 4: how households and businesses are going to behave. And one

65
00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,640
Speaker 4: thing that we look at is an uncertainty index that

66
00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:24,680
Speaker 4: has been extremely good at forecasting recessions. And it is

67
00:04:24,880 --> 00:04:28,240
Speaker 4: presently not as high as it was right before the pandemic,

68
00:04:28,560 --> 00:04:32,159
Speaker 4: but it is higher than the global financial crisis, the

69
00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:35,880
Speaker 4: dot com bubble bursting, and the SNL loan crisis. Right,

70
00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,960
Speaker 4: so we know that this level of uncertainty is going

71
00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 4: to eventually cause a pullback in household spending in corporate capbex.

72
00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:47,040
Speaker 2: Constance Hunter with EIU there and the changing landscape, and

73
00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,880
Speaker 2: let me tell you it changes line by line in

74
00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:54,000
Speaker 2: press release. Is I tape this over four minutes thirty

75
00:04:54,080 --> 00:04:57,479
Speaker 2: nine seconds, the Dow has gone up almost two hundred

76
00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:01,279
Speaker 2: points off of one line item out of sixteen hundred

77
00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:05,560
Speaker 2: Pennsylvania Avenue, Thank you for your support on your commutes

78
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 2: across the nation. Special thank you to Apple CarPlay. The

79
00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,839
Speaker 2: Bentley was in the garage today. My driver had Apple

80
00:05:11,880 --> 00:05:13,920
Speaker 2: CarPlay I thought that was a good and beautiful thing.

81
00:05:14,279 --> 00:05:17,159
Speaker 2: Android auto as well, and of course we say thank

82
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:20,120
Speaker 2: you on YouTube. Growing each and every day, look to

83
00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:24,560
Speaker 2: the wide set of podcasts. Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway

84
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:28,320
Speaker 2: out with a superb podcast. I'm not going to tell

85
00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,000
Speaker 2: you what it is. I think it's already. It's not

86
00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,839
Speaker 2: out yet, I should say, but it'll be must listen

87
00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:39,080
Speaker 2: for those interested in the equity market. Subscribe to Bloomberg

88
00:05:39,200 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 2: Podcasts and we're on YouTube podcasts. This is single best

89
00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:55,800
Speaker 2: idea