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Speaker 1: Do Do Do Do did it? Dude? You're listening the
Speaker 1: best of the Fantasy best Friends for Ever with Mike Florio,
Speaker 1: Frank Stample and me Greg Sausman. Thanks so much for
Speaker 1: listening and we'll be back soon. We hope is that
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz and Deshan de Sean Jackson Deshaun Watson both
Speaker 1: returning from major a c L injuries. And Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: lit the world on fire last year before his a
Speaker 1: CIL injury, and the same can be said for Carson Wentz.
Speaker 1: Both of these guys were in Live for major awards,
Speaker 1: Watson certainly the Rookie of the Year and went to
Speaker 1: the NFL m v P both through touchdowns at remarkable
Speaker 1: rates really unseen of, unheard of the obvious question is
Speaker 1: can they do it again. Deshaun Watson's being picked earlier
Speaker 1: and rightfully so he's coming back. The surgery was much
Speaker 1: much earlier in this season than Wentz's. Watson's touchdown percentage,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, literally out of control, but he can
Speaker 1: run a little bit, certainly has the deep arm. But
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is done before. It's two years in a row.
Speaker 1: We saw steady improvement. I have to ask from their
Speaker 1: draft price, Frank, which one d other have? This is
Speaker 1: tough because I think at their price, I want to
Speaker 1: say neither, because someone who's going in that range right
Speaker 1: now is Cam Newton, and I think i'd rather have
Speaker 1: Cam Newton just in a vacuum. I have Cam Newton
Speaker 1: ranked higher than these quarterbacks right now, and then if
Speaker 1: I want to wait a couple of rounds, I can
Speaker 1: grab and Andrew look. Like Mike mentioned earlier on if
Speaker 1: I had to choose one of them, I have Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz ranked higher one spot than Deshaun Watson, and I
Speaker 1: have walked warmed up to Deshaun Watson a little bit.
Speaker 1: I know I was very harsh on him a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, but I am worried. I mean, he
Speaker 1: tore his a c L last year. He's now torn
Speaker 1: a c ls in both of his knees. So you know,
Speaker 1: he is a mobile quarterback who has to get out
Speaker 1: of the pocket and make plays. And he's gonna be
Speaker 1: on the run this year. Greg The offensive line of
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans is not good. But that being said,
Speaker 1: I understand the opportunity that's presented right in front of him.
Speaker 1: He has DeAndre Hopkins, he has Will Fuller, so he
Speaker 1: has legitimate weapons. I mean DeAndre Hopkins, pound for pound,
Speaker 1: one of the best wide receivers in the game. Um again,
Speaker 1: Watson's gonna be able to make plays with his legs.
Speaker 1: That's what we hope. But you know, coming back over
Speaker 1: the to the torn a c L, maybe he's a
Speaker 1: little bit apprehensive. I just think where he's going you
Speaker 1: have to pay that price. You know, six seventh, even
Speaker 1: eighth round range. They're just running backs wide receiver I'd
Speaker 1: rather take, or if I'm gonna take a quarterback, I'd
Speaker 1: rather take Cam Newton. You know, a guy that we've
Speaker 1: seen do it year in and year out. Outside of
Speaker 1: that one terrible season two years ago, the guy has
Speaker 1: finished QB seven or higher in points per game every
Speaker 1: single season. The rushing floor that he gives you. He
Speaker 1: was number one across the board in every single rushing
Speaker 1: statistic for quarterbacks last season. Cam Newton. So that's why
Speaker 1: if I'm just putting these guys in a vacuum, they're
Speaker 1: going in similar range. I'll pass on those guys. I'll
Speaker 1: take a Cam Newton um and then Carson wentz Is.
Speaker 1: You know, we're hearing more and more now he might
Speaker 1: not be ready for a week one one. He actually
Speaker 1: had surgery early December, and it takes about, you know,
Speaker 1: nine to twelve months to heal from an a c
Speaker 1: L injury. Come September, it's gonna be around nine months.
Speaker 1: So maybe he doesn't start the year off. That's there's
Speaker 1: a chance that he can bust, just because where he's
Speaker 1: being drafted right now. Maybe he doesn't play the first month,
Speaker 1: maybe he lands on the publist. We just don't know
Speaker 1: as of right now if you're doing drafts. So there's
Speaker 1: definitely a lot of risk involved with both of these guys, again,
Speaker 1: a lot of upside, But in a vacuum, I'll take
Speaker 1: Cam Newton over both of them. Who is being drafted
Speaker 1: in a similar range. Okay, so that wasn't the question, Frank,
Speaker 1: But then sorry, you know, I love Cam Newton, give you,
Speaker 1: give it like I think Carson Wentz. But I'd rather
Speaker 1: have Cam Newton not in the poll for a reason
Speaker 1: because the answer is I don't really want either one
Speaker 1: of them. There you go, that's the answer. You don't
Speaker 1: want to you don't really want either of them. Florio,
Speaker 1: I turned it over to you because we haven't really
Speaker 1: heard a negative word when it comes to Carson Wentz, right, Like,
Speaker 1: he's gonna be fine, he's gonna be healthy, he's working
Speaker 1: his way back. Yeada, YadA, YadA. Obviously, Nick Foles proved
Speaker 1: more than capable last year, winning the Super Bowl UM
Speaker 1: for the Eagles. But I do take some solace into
Speaker 1: the fact that went like showed that jump in the
Speaker 1: year to you, like that efficiency, like Peterson knows what
Speaker 1: he's doing. And maybe I just think Bill O'Brien is
Speaker 1: like an idiot, but like he started Tom Savage last year, right,
Speaker 1: like this is the same dude that was like all
Speaker 1: right then with Shaun Watson in and maybe that efficiency
Speaker 1: was just way out of whack. I think I'd really
Speaker 1: have wentzton DeShawn Watson. I guess I'm going to be
Speaker 1: the only one that has Watson ranked higher. And it's
Speaker 1: a number of reasons. First, what Frank said is a
Speaker 1: hundred percent true. There's a chance that Carson Wentz miss
Speaker 1: his week one. There's a chance that he misses more
Speaker 1: time than that. And like you said, they have a
Speaker 1: comminent backup who won the Super Bowl for them, won
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl m v P. So I think they're
Speaker 1: okay saying, hey, Carson Wentz take a couple of weeks off.
Speaker 1: We have Nick Foles here for a reason. That's one thing.
Speaker 1: The other thing is, I think, first of all, Texas
Speaker 1: Houston's defense is going to be worse than Phillies, So
Speaker 1: I think Watson is going to be have to put
Speaker 1: up some more points than Wentz will have to. I
Speaker 1: think that also O'Brien is actually there. The talk is
Speaker 1: this year that they're drawing up plays for Watson similar
Speaker 1: to like what he did in college, because last year
Speaker 1: he kind of had to conform to their playbook. Now
Speaker 1: this year they're doing it the other way around, because
Speaker 1: last year they didn't expect him to be their sudn quarterback,
Speaker 1: like you said also, I expect touchdown regressions for both
Speaker 1: of these guys. It was something I said last year
Speaker 1: once DeShawn Watson towards a c L that I thought
Speaker 1: he was gonna be overrated because I said, since two
Speaker 1: thousand ten, no quarterback had a higher touchdown percentage. I
Speaker 1: went all the way back to the post merger year
Speaker 1: Greggy nineteen seventy. Deshaun Watson is tied last year minimum
Speaker 1: two hundred passing attempts all time. Since nineteen seventy, he's
Speaker 1: tied for the second highest touchdown percentage of all time,
Speaker 1: behind only Payton Manning. In two thousand four, his was
Speaker 1: Watson's was nine point four percent, Payton Mannings was nine
Speaker 1: point nine percent. But you look at Carson Wentz in
Speaker 1: those same two spans, since two thousand ten, Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: I shared a seven point five touchdown percent Since two
Speaker 1: doesn't tend that ranked six and since nineteen seventy, the
Speaker 1: post merger that was the twenty six highest. So obviously
Speaker 1: both of these guys are going to suffer some touchdown regression.
Speaker 1: I think. So if if Carson Wentz isn't throwing touchdowns
Speaker 1: like he was he was on pace last year for
Speaker 1: forty one. That would have been seven more than Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson who was second. So obviously he was on pace
Speaker 1: by far to to set the touchdown record last season.
Speaker 1: You take you scale those back a little bit. Do
Speaker 1: you know how any games he had with less than
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty passing yards last year? Again, he
Speaker 1: played thirteen games, seven of them he failed to reach
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty yards, and that's half more than
Speaker 1: half the games. He only had four games at over
Speaker 1: three hundred passing yards, So he was either throwing for
Speaker 1: over three hundred or less than two fifty. There was
Speaker 1: two games in between there, but so we know how
Speaker 1: much up and down. The yardage was more down than up.
Speaker 1: So to me, if he is going to lose some
Speaker 1: of those touchdowns and I don't bank on him to
Speaker 1: have the yardage that some of these other quarterbacks going
Speaker 1: around that range can. And we're talking about this was
Speaker 1: a guy who contributed with his legs last year. Why
Speaker 1: are they going to let him run especially early on
Speaker 1: in the season. We just said he might miss time
Speaker 1: to start the year. I don't have any confidence at
Speaker 1: all that they're going to let him run the ball.
Speaker 1: And extend plays with his legs, whereas with DeShawn Watson
Speaker 1: he's had more time to heal. They're already saying he's
Speaker 1: playing without a brace and they are going to let
Speaker 1: him to continue to make plays with his legs. I'm
Speaker 1: with Frank on the fact that I don't want to
Speaker 1: draft either of these guys, and I said it when
Speaker 1: I walked in today to you guys, I said, I
Speaker 1: have these guys ranked fifth and six, with Watson being
Speaker 1: five once being six, and I don't feel great about it.
Speaker 1: I might lower them just because I would never take
Speaker 1: them at their current price, so it's hard for me
Speaker 1: to advocate others to do the same. But while I
Speaker 1: have them ranked highly, I'm not targeting them. I would
Speaker 1: take Cam Newton over them. Like Frank said, I will
Speaker 1: wait and take Andrew Luck. There's other quarterbacks I like later,
Speaker 1: but if you had, if I had to pick one
Speaker 1: of the two, I think the Shawn Watson is safer,
Speaker 1: so I'm taking him. I will say this. You mentioned
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz is touched on rate seven point five percent,
Speaker 1: not nearly as high as Shaun Watson, and I do
Speaker 1: think that some regression would be there with him. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't project him to throw more than forty touchdowns over
Speaker 1: a sixteen game span, but it's a lot more manageable
Speaker 1: than de Shaun Watson nine point three. But they're both
Speaker 1: gonna get hit with it. No, yeah, absolutely, But I
Speaker 1: do think, you know, there's something to what Gregg said about,
Speaker 1: you know, Doug Peterson putting his players in the right
Speaker 1: position to make plays where you know, even when Carson
Speaker 1: Wentz wasn't throwing for that many yards, once he got
Speaker 1: into the red zone, got into the you know, right
Speaker 1: parts of the field to get things done, like Doug
Speaker 1: Peterson put him in that position and they you know,
Speaker 1: he was able to do the same thing with Nick Foles.
Speaker 1: Across the border. Are gonna see touchdown regression this year,
Speaker 1: Like you've already poo pooed al Sean Jeffrey and you
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna repeat the nine touchdowns he had
Speaker 1: last year. Zach Ertz had eight touchdowns, something that he's
Speaker 1: never done in his career. He had never had more
Speaker 1: than five. I believe he might be able to get
Speaker 1: So I think there's gonna be some regression across the
Speaker 1: board for this team, not just with Carson Wentz. Like
Speaker 1: I think Philly's offense last year was amazing. It was
Speaker 1: off the charts good to me. I don't like to
Speaker 1: bank on history repeating itself, though, so like I think
Speaker 1: across the board, especially when Wentz is coming off of
Speaker 1: such a severe injury, it might not fully be ready
Speaker 1: to start the season at the very best we're gonna
Speaker 1: see him with limited time and preseason. To me, it
Speaker 1: just it screams that there's going to be regression for
Speaker 1: both of these guys. So I'll just go with the
Speaker 1: guy who I think is safer and going to start
Speaker 1: the season healthy. If Watson and Wentz were being drafted
Speaker 1: at the same point as guys like Andrew Luck and
Speaker 1: Ben robs Burger, let's say in a vacuum, would you
Speaker 1: still would you still pass on those guys to draft
Speaker 1: like an Andrew Luck Because I like Andrew Luck a
Speaker 1: lot as well. The reason why I would take him
Speaker 1: is because you're getting the round, You're getting a couple
Speaker 1: of round discount. If you're all going around the same range,
Speaker 1: would you still pass on those quarterbacks? No, I would
Speaker 1: probably take the Shawn Watson because I think he is
Speaker 1: the upside to be the number one quarterback. I think
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck has that upside as well. He does. Let's
Speaker 1: talk about Luck here for a second before we move
Speaker 1: on to Kirk Cousins. You want to do after the break? Um, So,
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck supposed to be a full go. He talked
Speaker 1: about that briefly last week week Frank Um supposed to
Speaker 1: just be a full go throwing. He's not on the
Speaker 1: pup list. He's not gonna throw over seven straight days.
Speaker 1: But that's fine. But we don't need an throw over
Speaker 1: seven straight days. You needn't be able to throw and
Speaker 1: be normal in what was the last time, guys, that
Speaker 1: he was truly healthy. We're looking at fifteen then, because
Speaker 1: he always played seven games, so you're looking at that
Speaker 1: was a long time since he was really really healthy.
Speaker 1: What did he do? We know what? He finished that
Speaker 1: in twenty four I know I can tell you his stats.
Speaker 1: Well finished that f completions, he played fifteen games. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but he wasn't healthy though, Like I mean, that was
Speaker 1: it was very bad. He finishes QB five and points
Speaker 1: per game. That's not even being healthy. So that's fine.
Speaker 1: Have his finishes and points per game QB eleven and
Speaker 1: when he was injured QB two, And that's that's why
Speaker 1: I wanted that's where I wanted to get too, because
Speaker 1: in sixteen he finished the top five quarterback and talking
Speaker 1: with the naked eye, he was he wasn't good like
Speaker 1: he was not and I remember the offensive line was horrific,
Speaker 1: the coaching staff was horrific. All this stuff built in.
Speaker 1: I get it. It was bad. He still finishes QB
Speaker 1: five back. Was this the year with Braisarians? Do we
Speaker 1: know that? Yeah? I believe so. Yes, it might even
Speaker 1: it might not have before. I believe it was. Okay,
Speaker 1: So that was the first last time he had a
Speaker 1: real opensive coordinator because it let him throw the ball
Speaker 1: down the field when he was the last time Bruce
Speaker 1: arians is with the okay, So it was after the
Speaker 1: braz Arians then, but the last time he was really
Speaker 1: healthy and he was down he was number two, And
Speaker 1: this is why he was one of the first quarterbacks
Speaker 1: off the board in If he truly is healthy now,
Speaker 1: Andrew Luck has the ability to finish the top three
Speaker 1: quarterback because he's gonna we know what it is with
Speaker 1: the legs. It's just being able to push the all
Speaker 1: time Frank Reich one second Frank Reich put Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: into or helped put Carson Wentz into a position to succeed.
Speaker 1: He did the same with Philip Rivers before that. I
Speaker 1: think Andrew Luck is in a much better place than
Speaker 1: he was since two thousand and fourteen, and where he's
Speaker 1: going off the board costing you nothing prett damn good.
Speaker 1: And I know I promised never to be injury optimistic.
Speaker 1: Ever again, I'm injury optimistic on injury lock. So I
Speaker 1: have him currently at QB nine, and a big part
Speaker 1: of it is because not only do I want to
Speaker 1: see if he's healthy as we get closer to the season,
Speaker 1: but I want to see him play a little bit
Speaker 1: and make sure that you know, given all this time
Speaker 1: off and all the injuries he's had to that on,
Speaker 1: that he is still the same player. If he starts
Speaker 1: to show us a little bit in preseason, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: move him ahead of Watson and Wentz and he will
Speaker 1: be my QB five. That's that's as high as I'm
Speaker 1: gonna put him if he shows us that he is healthy,
Speaker 1: uh in preseason. Yeah, I agree, that's the highest I
Speaker 1: would put him as well. And you know something we
Speaker 1: haven't even mentioned yet, the cult's offensive line got a
Speaker 1: lot better in the off season. You know, they used
Speaker 1: that high draft pick on Quentin Nelson. Pro Football Focus
Speaker 1: has already released their offensive line rankings. Last year, at
Speaker 1: season's end, they were twenty five. As of today their seventeen,
Speaker 1: so they moved up eight spots there. You know about
Speaker 1: an average offensive line now that's much better than than
Speaker 1: what Andrew Luck had had in years past. So you
Speaker 1: want to see him throw a football, You want to
Speaker 1: see him get out there during the preseason. But I've
Speaker 1: said this before, going to continue to say it, there's
Speaker 1: no better year to take a shot on Andrew Luck because, um,
Speaker 1: there's just so the position is so deep that like
Speaker 1: if he if he gets hurt or he bust, I mean,
Speaker 1: there's so many guys you can pick up or you
Speaker 1: know even just draft Stafford Rivers, Eli Manning of all
Speaker 1: these like Tyrod Taylor. I mean, they have all these
Speaker 1: weapons at the quarterback positions, just so deep. This is
Speaker 1: the year that if you wanted to take the shot
Speaker 1: with all the insurance policies, it makes sense to do
Speaker 1: so with Andrew Luck. Okay, they don't have a run game.
Speaker 1: They have coordinators who love to pass, especially when they
Speaker 1: get near the end zone. It is all lining up
Speaker 1: for Andrew Luck to have a phenomenal season. My only
Speaker 1: pause right now is I want to see if he
Speaker 1: like once I see like footage of him throwing the
Speaker 1: ball and he looks like the old guy. I told you, Boom,
Speaker 1: I'm putting in five but ahead of Wins, ahead of Watson,
Speaker 1: and I would take him then over those guys in
Speaker 1: that range. Yeah, just like I don't know, like that's
Speaker 1: there's more. No, It's just it's a matter of seeing
Speaker 1: I want to see, not like, oh, I don't want
Speaker 1: to see him do it for this whole season, But
Speaker 1: I just want to see him on the football field
Speaker 1: with his teammates throwing the ball. There's no reason, by
Speaker 1: the way, Andrew Luck shouldn't be in priesas and football
Speaker 1: this year. He already been cleared of everything. He's don't
Speaker 1: even need to see him like play well. I just
Speaker 1: need see him on the field. And I'm telling you
Speaker 1: he's going to be the biggest climber from now until
Speaker 1: draft Day of all players. I truly believe. I don't
Speaker 1: get that. What do you think it's gonna be higher? Um?
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see who's the dude Ronald Jones more.
Speaker 1: I already have Ronald Jones like sixteen at running back,
Speaker 1: so's something like that. I have him in my top twenty.
Speaker 1: You have him there, most people don't as of nowhere
Speaker 1: where he's going drafted. I think Andrew Luck, like I know,
Speaker 1: he's number eleven, we said for Fantasy pros, and he's
Speaker 1: eleven quarterback off the board. I don't know what the
Speaker 1: discrepancy is between five and eleven. Have Ronald Jones twenty,
Speaker 1: but I've debated putting him higher. So we we were
Speaker 1: talking two weeks ago now that we think Ronald Jones
Speaker 1: is going to be like wherever Sean Penny is going
Speaker 1: in the fourth round, Like, Ronald Jones will be right there,
Speaker 1: and I think he should be. We agree, that's why
Speaker 1: he said he's gonna be THEES riser during draft season.
Speaker 1: I still think Andrew lucktill can because right now he's
Speaker 1: going and like you can get him pretty late, like
Speaker 1: you're geting him like tant eleven, twelfth quarterback off the board.
Speaker 1: I don't think Frank and I are alone and saying
Speaker 1: once people start seeing him and because then there's that
Speaker 1: you get rid of the old man. What if Andrew
Speaker 1: luck is is he's still gonna be hurried, or if
Speaker 1: he's never gonna be the same, you put that to bed.
Speaker 1: People are gonna start looking at what he did when
Speaker 1: he was healthy, in my opinion, and start ranking him
Speaker 1: as highly as we said we would. But he's the
Speaker 1: eleventh quarterback off the board right now. According to Fantasy
Speaker 1: pros at pick Well Nitchiel Droubisky take the step that
Speaker 1: Carson Wentz did in his second year, right both second
Speaker 1: year guys too. Will Drubisky take that step? A lot
Speaker 1: of people believe he will, like Floria, are you one
Speaker 1: of them? Yes? And I think that first of all,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start this off by saying he is my
Speaker 1: pick to be this year's Carson Wentz of these four quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: With that being said, though, I do think the other
Speaker 1: three are all safer than him. They're all more proven.
Speaker 1: We've seen them do it at the NFL level, so
Speaker 1: but I do think Trubisky has the higher upside, highest
Speaker 1: ceiling of them all to be that come out of nowhere.
Speaker 1: Well he's not really coming out of nowhere, but to
Speaker 1: be that breakout quarterback this season and it's more than
Speaker 1: I'm buying into the system and the supporting cast than
Speaker 1: I am just Shrubisky. We look at it, they got
Speaker 1: rid of John Fox, like you said, Greggy, he was
Speaker 1: a dinosaur. They brought in Naggie from the from Kansas
Speaker 1: City and their offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich from Oregon. He
Speaker 1: was Chip Kelly's heir to the Oregon Ducks. So right there,
Speaker 1: I believe those two minds. We've seen Naggie get a
Speaker 1: lot out of the Kansas City offense last season, and
Speaker 1: years before we saw we know Oregon as one of
Speaker 1: the was at least one of the best offensive schools
Speaker 1: in college football. So I think there's gonna be a
Speaker 1: lot of creativity between those two offensive minds right there.
Speaker 1: And then the popular narrative that and I'm buying into
Speaker 1: it is that he's going to be this year's golf
Speaker 1: And it makes sense. He put young, innovative offensive coaches
Speaker 1: around him and a great supporting cast. You look at it,
Speaker 1: what Shrubisky was playing with last year compared to what
Speaker 1: he's playing with, we'll we'll be playing with this season.
Speaker 1: Josh Bell and me and Don Chell Edman is now
Speaker 1: Allen Robinson and Zach Miller or Dion Sims is now
Speaker 1: Trey Burton, who Frank and I both think he's gonna
Speaker 1: break out this year. I agree with what Frank said
Speaker 1: last week. I love Alan Robinson in the fourth round.
Speaker 1: Kendall Wright is now Anthony Miller, and I like Anthony
Speaker 1: Miller a lot, and early beat reporters and reports from
Speaker 1: training camp is that Anthony Miller can do it all.
Speaker 1: He's apparently even a great threat inside the red zone,
Speaker 1: so I love the the offensive weapons there. You have
Speaker 1: Trea Cohen, who Naggie continuously is talking up and saying
Speaker 1: that they're going to find creative ways to get him
Speaker 1: the ball. You have Jordan Howard, who not only is
Speaker 1: a great runner, who you know defenses are going to
Speaker 1: have to pay attention to and it's gonna help open
Speaker 1: things up for Trubisky. But now we're seeing him catch
Speaker 1: passes and stuff in training camp. So if he can
Speaker 1: even just improve on that a little bit, not saying
Speaker 1: he's ever gonna get confused with with Christian McCaffrey, but
Speaker 1: if he can just become a competent pass catcher, that's
Speaker 1: only going to help Mitchell Trubisky. And in fact, the
Speaker 1: biggest thing to me is that when Rubinsky came out
Speaker 1: of college, what was it that we heard He has
Speaker 1: all the physical tools in the world, but he does
Speaker 1: not have a lot of experience under his belt. He
Speaker 1: played the one year UNC and that was it. And
Speaker 1: in that one season, the offense was primarily ran exclusively
Speaker 1: out of the shotgun. So what does John Fox do
Speaker 1: last year when he gets this young quarterback and throws
Speaker 1: him into the mix, makes him call almost every single
Speaker 1: play from under center. You look at last season, the
Speaker 1: Browns ran just fort pent in their plays from the shotgun,
Speaker 1: and thtent of their passing plays were Uh, we're only
Speaker 1: from the shotgun. Both ranks twenty two in all of football.
Speaker 1: So you have a quarterback who you know has limitations
Speaker 1: as to the experience he has, and you try to
Speaker 1: make him into something he's not. And not only that,
Speaker 1: they tried to limit him throwing as much as possible.
Speaker 1: Just run the ball with Jordan Howard over and over again.
Speaker 1: We've already heard the new regime say that's not what
Speaker 1: they're gonna do. They're gonna open things up, they're gonna
Speaker 1: be creative. So you're giving me a better coaching system.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna put a scheme into place that
Speaker 1: fits their young quarterback and his strengths better than what
Speaker 1: John Fox did. Plus you give me that supporting cast
Speaker 1: there is he the safest of the four? No, but
Speaker 1: who I think he has the highest upside. Yes, And
Speaker 1: it's more because I'm buying into everything around him than
Speaker 1: I am the player himself. And I think those are
Speaker 1: all great points. And you know, you didn't even get
Speaker 1: to the fact that, I mean, a guy can make
Speaker 1: plays with his legs as well. I mean we just
Speaker 1: spoke about Mariota. Mariota viewed as a you know, running
Speaker 1: quarterback at the NFL level, or you know, certainly a
Speaker 1: guy that can make plays with his legs. Michel Trobiski
Speaker 1: average twenty point seven rushing yards per game last year.
Speaker 1: That's just a tick under what Mariota is that for
Speaker 1: his career. During his his final season at U n
Speaker 1: C before he left for the NFL Draft, he averaged
Speaker 1: twenty three rushing yards per game in his final season
Speaker 1: at U n C as well. So I think you
Speaker 1: know a guy who they can He can make plays
Speaker 1: with his legs, he can get outside the pocket, he
Speaker 1: can make throws down the field as well if you
Speaker 1: need to take off and run a little bit. I
Speaker 1: think he adds a little bit of rushing production there
Speaker 1: as well. I mean, for all the reasons Mike mentioned, right,
Speaker 1: if we're excited about Trey Burton, if we're excited about
Speaker 1: Alan Robinson coming back, if we're excited about Tarik and
Speaker 1: excited about Anthony Miller, that's all you hear everyone excited
Speaker 1: about the Chicago Bears. That means you have to like
Speaker 1: the guy who's throwing them the ball as well. And
Speaker 1: and that's going to be Mitch Rabinsky. I do have
Speaker 1: some post for concern with the volume, and I mentioned
Speaker 1: that um last week as well. With the Bears, I
Speaker 1: don't know. I think they want to be a more
Speaker 1: balanced attack. And they have Jordan Howard, so we've seen
Speaker 1: him get the ball a lot. He can handle a
Speaker 1: big workload. If they want to, you know, take him
Speaker 1: off the field for a bit, they could do things
Speaker 1: with Treekoh and I think that their defense is going
Speaker 1: to be improved as well this year. Uh, they could
Speaker 1: end up at some shootouts playing against the Lions, Packers,
Speaker 1: teams like that in the division. But I do think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be a more balanced attack. So that's not
Speaker 1: only concerned with Ribsky, but everything is there in terms of,
Speaker 1: you know, getting a new you know, offensive minded coach,
Speaker 1: and there not only the head coach. The offensive coordinator
Speaker 1: you mentioned coming over from Oregon told you last week
Speaker 1: they're going to run some more r p O s
Speaker 1: this year as well as something that we saw the
Speaker 1: Eagles do very successfully. So you bring in a college
Speaker 1: mind who can work well with you know, some of
Speaker 1: the concepts that Trabinsky had at U n C. You
Speaker 1: put all those things together and it's a recipe for success.
Speaker 1: To me, the only thing I worry about is maybe
Speaker 1: volume here. But if I had to choose someone other
Speaker 1: than Marcus Mariotta of this group to make that step,
Speaker 1: maybe not inside the top five, but top twelve, top ten,
Speaker 1: I think True Whisky is that guy. Not sure he
Speaker 1: has the same ceiling, but outside of Mariota, he would
Speaker 1: be my second next vote of the poll of the
Speaker 1: guys that we spoke about today, Greg. So to me,
Speaker 1: True Whisky maybe one. But I do have this question.
Speaker 1: You get a lot of great statistics there, Mikey. Is
Speaker 1: there a chance that Mitchell True Whisky becomes this year's
Speaker 1: Jared Goff rather than becoming this jewics question Wentz, Yes,
Speaker 1: I think that is a better comparison, and Jared Goff
Speaker 1: last year was QB nine and points per game. I
Speaker 1: think that is a realistic expectation for Mitch tru Whisky
Speaker 1: if everything hits two Frank's point, everyone loves all the weapons.
Speaker 1: There is no way that Tarik Cohen is worth the
Speaker 1: fifth round pick. Allen Robinson is a wide receiver to
Speaker 1: Anthony Miller is everyone's favorite, you know, late round wide
Speaker 1: receiver Trede and it is a top ten tight end.
Speaker 1: There's no way all of that happens and Mitts dr
Speaker 1: Whisky bust. So we believe in all the talent around him,
Speaker 1: and we believe in the head coach and all that
Speaker 1: we naturally have to believe in Mitts Dr Bisky. There's
Speaker 1: no way one can go without the other. Totally agree
Speaker 1: with that now, I totally totally agree with that. I
Speaker 1: was like, ye, guy, Matt Ryan, you hated him last year.
Speaker 1: He were very out on him. First year in a
Speaker 1: new offense, chief Star Kasian Atlanta. Everything went right for
Speaker 1: them two years ago. Matt Ryan was the m v P.
Speaker 1: They go all the way to the Super Bowl before
Speaker 1: the Monstros collapsed against the Patriots. But Matt Ryan had
Speaker 1: a what a hell of a season, Damante Freeman, Julia Jones,
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody together, just the monsters. Monsters year. Last
Speaker 1: year they fall back down to earth and Matt Ryan,
Speaker 1: as you described throughout the year, Frank, You're like, hey,
Speaker 1: this guy sinks. He shouldn't be started. Much old, much
Speaker 1: less started. You want nothing to do with Matt Ryan.
Speaker 1: Why is it different? Well, last year was just based
Speaker 1: on the price that you had to pay for him.
Speaker 1: So you know he was getting drafted as a top
Speaker 1: five quarterback last season he was, you know, just behind
Speaker 1: the Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, who another one
Speaker 1: who disappointed us last season. Um, But you know, you
Speaker 1: look at Matt Ryan's career and there's a lot of
Speaker 1: up and down. It's from twenty sixteen to seventeen, Falcons
Speaker 1: went from first in points per game, they dropped all
Speaker 1: the way down to fifteenth in points per game last year.
Speaker 1: And you look at his fantasy finishes too, in points
Speaker 1: per game just in his career, You've been nineteen last
Speaker 1: season QB two and twenty sixteen. That was the MVP
Speaker 1: year phenomenal. He'd be twenty two and twenty fifteen, he'd
Speaker 1: be seven and fourteen, he'd be sixteen and thirteen, he'd
Speaker 1: be seven and twenty twelve. So it just seems that
Speaker 1: there's a lot of inconsistency from year to year with
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan. It just seems like you want to buy
Speaker 1: him after the down years because you're getting such a
Speaker 1: big discount on him for fantasy football. So that's why
Speaker 1: again you're seeing him draft around QB fifteen, QB sixteen.
Speaker 1: We know what his upside can be. I think some
Speaker 1: natural regression is in order for Matt Ryan as well.
Speaker 1: He had only twenty touchdowns last year. Greg, I mean
Speaker 1: with the weapons that he has, Julio Jones, we talked
Speaker 1: about him another one natural regression. He only had three
Speaker 1: touchdowns last year. They still have Julio Jones. They bring
Speaker 1: in Calvin Ridley, they have Mohammed Sano, they have Austin Hooper.
Speaker 1: We're hoping DeVante Freeman Kevin Coleman are more involved in
Speaker 1: the past game. This year's second season in Steve Sarkisian's offense,
Speaker 1: but the touchdowns had to come up last season, the
Speaker 1: final eight games, including the playoffs. He didn't throw multiple
Speaker 1: touchdowns in any game, one touchdown or less in eight
Speaker 1: straight games from Matt Ryan. You asked me there's natural
Speaker 1: regression coming. I will say this, I don't think it
Speaker 1: fits the bill either of the guy that we're looking for,
Speaker 1: the next Carson Wentz. I know that. I said he
Speaker 1: has the upside, but if you look at it the
Speaker 1: m v P season, thirty eight touchdowns, that was a
Speaker 1: phenomenal season. He's only had more than thirty touchdowns twice
Speaker 1: in his career and that's two, four or six eight,
Speaker 1: that's ten seasons. So I don't think that's the quarterback
Speaker 1: he yes, I think thirty touchdowns, that's what you should expect.
Speaker 1: More so out of Matt Ryan. I think the natural
Speaker 1: positive regression is coming. He probably closer to like a
Speaker 1: high m QB two, maybe sneaks in that that top twelve.
Speaker 1: But again, I don't think he's the guy. I don't
Speaker 1: think he's top five worthy this year. I wouldn't have
Speaker 1: him as my my Carson Wentz. He will be better
Speaker 1: than last year, but he's not getting back to m
Speaker 1: v P format. I'll say that about Matt Ryan. Matt
Speaker 1: Ryan almost reminded me of his teammate DeVante Freeman. We
Speaker 1: talked about that on the Todd Gurley Show, right like
Speaker 1: who could be the next Todd Gurley and DeVante Freeman
Speaker 1: seemed like the obvious answer. He was a guy that
Speaker 1: we've seen do it before, find the end zone quite
Speaker 1: a bit. It was being taken after a lot of
Speaker 1: guys that just aren't better than him. And the injuries
Speaker 1: are concerned. They're injuries are und concerned, Mike. When it
Speaker 1: comes to Matt Ryan, it's really just production and performance,
Speaker 1: and ultimately he's gonna go back to where he was
Speaker 1: two years ago. He was the number one guy. No,
Speaker 1: he's not. Is he as bad as he was last year?
Speaker 1: Probably not? No, And the injury is not concerned at
Speaker 1: always two games in his NFL career, and I figue
Speaker 1: what Frank said. I think the touchdowns are a big factor,
Speaker 1: and I think there are natural regression coming because you
Speaker 1: look at it. In only sixteen he had ninety six
Speaker 1: passing attempts inside the twenty yard line and fifty one
Speaker 1: inside the ten, which both would have led the league
Speaker 1: last year. By the way, because we saw across the board,
Speaker 1: I think it's worth mentioning fewer passing attempts inside the
Speaker 1: red zone than we did in previous seasons, so that
Speaker 1: is worth noting. But last season the number inside the
Speaker 1: twenty drop from ninety six to seventy five and inside
Speaker 1: the tan drop from fifty one to thirty five, so
Speaker 1: we could see that climb up a little bit closer
Speaker 1: to what it was in sixteen. That could be one
Speaker 1: way whether those touchdowns start to increase. Also, his completion
Speaker 1: percentage dropped from inside the twenty from sixty one point
Speaker 1: seven six to forty six point one, and then last
Speaker 1: year inside the tan from fifty seven point four one
Speaker 1: in sixteen to just fifty in uh inside the ten
Speaker 1: yard line last year. So if we're expecting Julio Jones
Speaker 1: to suffer some positive touchdown regressions, I think it only
Speaker 1: goes hand in hand with Matt Ryan seeing an uptick
Speaker 1: in his touchdowns. You know who Matt Ryan reminds me
Speaker 1: of from a couple of years ago, Matt Ryan. So
Speaker 1: coming into sixteen, I thought Matt Ryan was a good
Speaker 1: quarter value at the quarterback position because the year before
Speaker 1: that the touchdowns were down in he threw just twenty
Speaker 1: one touchdowns, but he had four thousand, five hundred and
Speaker 1: ninety one passing yards that ranked fifth in the NFL.
Speaker 1: So my thinking that year was if the yards could
Speaker 1: be there, even if I didn't expect thirty eight touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say that I did, but I thought, hey,
Speaker 1: if he gets back into that twenty five through twenty
Speaker 1: eight range, he is going to provide a good value
Speaker 1: because he already has all the passing yards. Now, the
Speaker 1: yards are down from what it was in fifteen, but
Speaker 1: last year he threw four thousand and ninety five yards
Speaker 1: that ranked sixth in all of football. Passing yards are down,
Speaker 1: we're down. Last year across the board he ranked six.
Speaker 1: So if he can get that touchdown percentage, which was
Speaker 1: three point eight last year, if he gets step back
Speaker 1: to his career norm of four point six, or maybe
Speaker 1: he even builds on that just a little bit, because
Speaker 1: we've seen him have multiple seasons where he was over five,
Speaker 1: if he can get back into that twenty five to
Speaker 1: twenty nine touchdown range, he's going to provide good value.
Speaker 1: He's a guy right now who if I'm in a
Speaker 1: Best Ball draft, or even if I'm in a regular draft,
Speaker 1: if I'm waiting on quarterback, and I'm taking like a
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers or whatever, or if I'm taking one of
Speaker 1: the upside guys and like Andrew Luck or Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan is the perfect one pair there because he's
Speaker 1: going to outlive his a DP. In my opinion, he's
Speaker 1: looking about pairs and maybe he is. Maybe that is
Speaker 1: a fine pair of Mahomes and Ryan. Maybe Ryan can
Speaker 1: certainly do better. But maybe I'm just looking at this wrong.
Speaker 1: But I'm looking for a break out. I'm looking for
Speaker 1: a dude. And maybe Matt Ryan does have the ability
Speaker 1: to finish the top five quarterback because he's done it before,
Speaker 1: Like we've seen that. He's only done it once though,
Speaker 1: but he's done it the other years that he's performed well,
Speaker 1: He's been around like QB seven in points per game.
Speaker 1: That's solid. That's fine. If you got out of him,
Speaker 1: that's fine. I'm I'm okay with that. But I'm trying
Speaker 1: to find a guy's gonn make the jump out of
Speaker 1: thin Matt Maryan is making the jump. And maybe again
Speaker 1: that Ryan is almost like a slightly better version of
Speaker 1: about X Smith. To me agree with you two, I
Speaker 1: would expect more in the QB seven through ten range
Speaker 1: rather than I would top five. And you think Smith's
Speaker 1: quarterback eighteen. That's what I haven't ranked currently, Mike, where
Speaker 1: do you have Met Ryan ranked? If you've done that
Speaker 1: portion of your rank I have Matt Ryan I do sixteen, okay,
Speaker 1: So we're both gonna be the number thirty seven rankers
Speaker 1: this year. I have met Ryan sixteen, okay. So so
Speaker 1: that's very interesting to me. So you had Alexmith a
Speaker 1: eighteen max, Alex Smith at eight teen, Matt Ryan sixteen.
Speaker 1: Not dissimilar, right, both quarterbacks? Things go right. You believe
Speaker 1: that Alex Smith can finish QB twelve thirteen is kind
Speaker 1: of what you said, and Matt Ryan seven to ten
Speaker 1: range a little crazy, but that's fine. That's not dissimilar
Speaker 1: these two guys. But those aren't necessarily the guys that
Speaker 1: are making this jump. Yeah, you can draft the Matt
Speaker 1: Ryan whenever, you can draft an Alex Smith whenever. And
Speaker 1: there's always a million quarterbacks out there. I get that.
Speaker 1: Let I'm looking for the best. This is a little
Speaker 1: bit different than the Todd Gurley episode where the DeAndre
Speaker 1: Hopkins up, so where there's all these talented guys, there's
Speaker 1: so many quarterbacksually be starting a one quarterback league. I
Speaker 1: get that, but I'm looking for the next Carson Wentz,
Speaker 1: the undrafted guy that is going to finish as a
Speaker 1: top five performer. And that leads me to Marcus Mariota.
Speaker 1: Because it was two years ago. We all picked up
Speaker 1: mac Marcus Mariota and we loved them right, and a
Speaker 1: lot of that was certainly due to the schedule. Every
Speaker 1: week he was facing a bottom five, bottom ten defense,
Speaker 1: and he tore them apart. As we got closer to
Speaker 1: the Fantasy playoffs, it was a disaster. His schedule got
Speaker 1: much much worse, and he was much worse in general.
Speaker 1: Last year, I remember him being one of the two
Speaker 1: players that I think we're people were on polar opposite
Speaker 1: sides of the conversation. Either you loved Marcus Mariota last
Speaker 1: year or you hated Marcus Mariotta last year. I was
Speaker 1: on the hate side. Personally, you are the love side,
Speaker 1: if I remember correctly, I think I had all right.
Speaker 1: You were pretty high on it. I was much I was.
Speaker 1: I was more optimistic than you, but I was not
Speaker 1: as high on him as I was a Damnus Winston,
Speaker 1: who I had in my top five but you were
Speaker 1: definitely a Mariota guy. If I you know, if I
Speaker 1: remember number seven, and that's pretty high. That was pretty
Speaker 1: high for me. It closed my rankings because unprepared um.
Speaker 1: But for me, Marcus Mariota was much was much lower.
Speaker 1: He was for me a number I wasn't lower as
Speaker 1: I thought. That's nine. Uh, he wasnub eleven and I
Speaker 1: thought I thought it was gonna be even lower. That's
Speaker 1: somewhat lower than the consensus. I came in in the
Speaker 1: middle of you two. I at first was kind of
Speaker 1: when I before I did my rankings, I thought I
Speaker 1: was going to be closer to Frank. But I don't
Speaker 1: have mind in front of me, but I believe I
Speaker 1: had him like nine or ten. I think as we
Speaker 1: got closer to the season, I think you started to
Speaker 1: lower him. Yeah. I think that was something that we
Speaker 1: all realized, like, Okay, he took advantage of a great
Speaker 1: schedule year before. We all thought that they were going
Speaker 1: to run the ball a bunch exotic smash mouth. So
Speaker 1: I think we all kind of like started to sour
Speaker 1: a little bit. I didn't do it as much, but
Speaker 1: I think I think that was the thinking heading into
Speaker 1: last year with Mariota fair enough. Now this year, it
Speaker 1: seems like the narrative itself, Frankie has changed a bit
Speaker 1: because Marcus Mariota. The use of his legs were still
Speaker 1: there last year. You can know these guys are gonna
Speaker 1: diamond on the numbers. I have a few myself, but
Speaker 1: the use of his legs were still there. But everybody
Speaker 1: blamed the coaching staff for his inability to improve as
Speaker 1: a passer. Mike Malarkey, he's old, no doubt about it.
Speaker 1: Terry Rubiski even older. These two dudes were exotic, smash mouth,
Speaker 1: but barely letting Marcus Mariota do anything. Incomes to Mike Rabele.
Speaker 1: Offensive coordinator is Matt Lafleour. Certainly everybody knows him as
Speaker 1: being the opensive coordinatre with the Rams last year, and
Speaker 1: now he comes in and this is his offense and
Speaker 1: people expect Marcus Mariota to have this major, major jump,
Speaker 1: but last year he was just eighteen in deep balls attempted.
Speaker 1: Are we blaming the coaching or are we blaming Marcus Mariota.
Speaker 1: That's the question we're going to need to answer before
Speaker 1: we know how high his ceiling could be. Mike, what
Speaker 1: do you think about Marcus Marietta. I think he'll be
Speaker 1: better than last year, obviously, but to me, he we
Speaker 1: need to see him do something that he's never done before,
Speaker 1: and we need to see him see a lot of volume.
Speaker 1: You look at it, his hot career high and passing
Speaker 1: attempts was last season at four hundred and fifty three.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. If you're not throwing the ball at least
Speaker 1: five hundred times, I don't think you can be a
Speaker 1: top five quarterback. And I know he gives you a
Speaker 1: lot with his legs. I'm not going to take that
Speaker 1: away from him. He does. But another thing I noticed
Speaker 1: about him that I didn't like last year as they
Speaker 1: got closer to the end zone, he didn't throw the
Speaker 1: ball much. Last year. He had forty nine attempts inside
Speaker 1: the red zone, not even inside the ten, where he
Speaker 1: only had eighteen forty nine attempts inside the red zone.
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks who had more uh it includes Trevor Simeon, Jay Cutler,
Speaker 1: Case Kingdom, Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor, Dak Prescott, not guys
Speaker 1: that you know we're extremely high on this season, But
Speaker 1: they were still throwing the ball more as they got
Speaker 1: closer to pay dirt. Than Marcus Mariota was. So for me,
Speaker 1: I do think Marcus Mariota has a lot of upside,
Speaker 1: but we have to see him do something. And maybe
Speaker 1: he does because they brought in a new head coach,
Speaker 1: a new offensive coordinator, and I know while none of
Speaker 1: them have ever called UH plays before, they both do
Speaker 1: come from systems that rely heavily on the past. So
Speaker 1: maybe that is something that they're going to implement. They're
Speaker 1: gonna be like, hey, we think that we trust Marcus Mariota,
Speaker 1: and we come from offenses and from teams that have
Speaker 1: had a lot of success being passed first teams. And
Speaker 1: I do think it is words bringing that up because
Speaker 1: the whole exotic, smash mouth and everything from the previous
Speaker 1: regime that's all gone. But they do have Dean Lewis here,
Speaker 1: they have Derrick Henry. I do think they are going
Speaker 1: to rely on the run a lot, maybe not as
Speaker 1: much as in years past. So I do think Marcus
Speaker 1: Mariota has a lot of upside, but he's gonna have
Speaker 1: to do a lot of things that we have yet
Speaker 1: to see him do at the NFL level. Yeah, that's
Speaker 1: exactly right. Um, you know, my pick to be this
Speaker 1: year's Carson Wentz would be Marcus Mariota. And you know
Speaker 1: he's actually leading the right now, and he does have
Speaker 1: to do something we've never seen before. QB twenty last
Speaker 1: year in points per game, q'd be eleven the year before,
Speaker 1: and QB fifteen as a rookie. So he hasn't finished
Speaker 1: higher than QB eleven. Yet you know we're saying that
Speaker 1: he has the upside to finishes a top five quarterback. Well,
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna put words in your guys mouth, but
Speaker 1: I do think of all the guys that we've mentioned
Speaker 1: so far kind of in this you know, QB QB
Speaker 1: twenty range, I think he is the guy because you know,
Speaker 1: completely new offense. Like you mentioned, you get Mike Malarkey
Speaker 1: out of here, you bring in Roger la Flour who
Speaker 1: worked under Sean McVeigh. What am I saying? Er? Was that?
Speaker 1: Was that from Dodgeball? Is that with Peter le fleur
Speaker 1: er we used to work with us. Oh, he was
Speaker 1: feels like a subconscious thing. I mean to write Matt
Speaker 1: la Floor Roger la Flour because it was like from
Speaker 1: emails from back in the day. I don't tell anyone
Speaker 1: I did that, but nobody but Matt Lafleur. You're right,
Speaker 1: greg Is, Matt la Floor takes over the offense. So
Speaker 1: I think we'll see some new concepts here for sure.
Speaker 1: Mike Freebel, the head coach here, you know, had worked
Speaker 1: with Dan Lewis when they were in New England. Obviously
Speaker 1: didn't actually work together, but he knows about Dan Lewis,
Speaker 1: so you bring that, You bring that versatility here to
Speaker 1: the run game, where you know you don't know what's
Speaker 1: gonna happen when Dean Lewis is in the backfield. A
Speaker 1: lot went wrong for Marcus Mariota last year. He was injured.
Speaker 1: We know he was coming back from the broken leg
Speaker 1: the year before. Then he suffered the hamstring injury in
Speaker 1: Week four. He was never the same after that. Corey
Speaker 1: Davis missed a lot of the season. So yeah, it
Speaker 1: sounds like I'm just making excuses for Marcus Mariotta, but
Speaker 1: there were a lot of excuses to be made, And
Speaker 1: you know, we would have made excuses for Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: from his rookie season to his second season as well.
Speaker 1: The same thing for the year Matt Ryan broke out
Speaker 1: and was the m v P. We would have made
Speaker 1: excuse for him from one year to the next as well.
Speaker 1: There were legitimate excuses with Mariotta. He had that old
Speaker 1: style offense. He was hurt last year, didn't have his
Speaker 1: number one target in Corey Davis, who we are all
Speaker 1: very excited about this season. Still has the Laney Walker,
Speaker 1: still has Rachardon Matthews has the running backs that you
Speaker 1: guys have mentioned. Has that rushing floor as well, three
Speaker 1: hundred and four rushing yards perse per season. That's twenty
Speaker 1: one point seven rushing yards per games. So you know,
Speaker 1: if he turns the ball over he kind of had,
Speaker 1: it gets mitigated by those rushing yards. And then I
Speaker 1: mean the touchdown percentage last year was two point nine percent.
Speaker 1: His first and second year it was five point one
Speaker 1: percent and five point nine percent, respectively. If that touchdown
Speaker 1: percentage was just five percent last year, you would have
Speaker 1: had twenty two passing touchdowns. And again you want more
Speaker 1: than that. But his path to being Carson Wentz is
Speaker 1: being exactly what Carson Wentz was last year, efficient making
Speaker 1: touchdown throws in the red zone, not doing it with
Speaker 1: a lot of passing yards per game. But we're gonna
Speaker 1: have to see a real touchdown efficiency out of Marcus Mariotta,
Speaker 1: and I think with the weapons they have new offensive
Speaker 1: minds that they have there. If anyone's going to do
Speaker 1: it from this group that we're talking about, it is
Speaker 1: Marcus Mariot. So today we're not going to do busts. Instead,
Speaker 1: we are going to do Bush tomorrow the quarterback like
Speaker 1: so would whoever busted last year that I was completely
Speaker 1: off of. Drew Brees also not good. Jabres massive bust
Speaker 1: last year. So we're gonna talk about that tomorrow. But
Speaker 1: today we're gonna do it. But differently, we're gonna talk
Speaker 1: about the player that broke out that cost you absolutely
Speaker 1: nothing but finished as a top five quarterback, and that
Speaker 1: was Carson Wentz, which I draft the Carson Wentz around
Speaker 1: after we draft the Carson Palmer I think last year
Speaker 1: in the GSD league, and he was a savior, I
Speaker 1: mean Carson Carson. Yeah, Carson Carson, and he was let's
Speaker 1: put your elbow out of my shot, thank you. Um.
Speaker 1: He was a superstar for a superstar for all fantasy players,
Speaker 1: and ultimately he would have been the most valuable player
Speaker 1: had he not gotten hurt. Obviously he did, and he
Speaker 1: crushed a lot of fantasy owners as well. Fantasy experts
Speaker 1: tell you all the time you don't need the draft
Speaker 1: a quarterback early, Carson Wentz being a prime example of that. Well,
Speaker 1: the experts don't always tell you, though, is which quarterback
Speaker 1: do you draft? Which one of these guys are going undrafted?
Speaker 1: Are costing you basically nothing in draft? Is the guy
Speaker 1: that you really want? Is the guy that cannot just
Speaker 1: be suitable weekend and week out, but finished as a
Speaker 1: top five player at his position. That's what we're trying
Speaker 1: to uncover this week. That's where we're trying to uncover today.
Speaker 1: So I want to get to that. On the Fantasy
Speaker 1: pof of Twitter account, we launched the pole as we
Speaker 1: do as we do each and every day during this series,
Speaker 1: and today which quarterback would be this year's Carson went
Speaker 1: Here are your options Number one Marcus Mariota, number two
Speaker 1: Alex Smith, number three Matt Ryan, or number four Mitchell
Speaker 1: true Bisky. Which of those four have the best chance
Speaker 1: this year to become Carson Wentz? We try to answer
Speaker 1: that right now. All right, gentlemen, I want to start
Speaker 1: off with the guy that I wanted on this poll,
Speaker 1: and that was Alex Smith. We can all laugh. You
Speaker 1: all cry, I understand, White, but go ahead. I can't
Speaker 1: do that, laugh Frank, And that that sounds like it's
Speaker 1: straight out of Grandma's Boy. It's still it's fine, it's fine.
Speaker 1: But Alex Smith, hold on last year finishes the number
Speaker 1: five top five quarterback. What is all said and done?
Speaker 1: Right now? Year about rushing quarterbacks, you mentioned DeShawn Watson
Speaker 1: and and and certainly Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins,
Speaker 1: and Marcus Mariota, who will get to but Alex Smith
Speaker 1: has the fifth most rushing yards of any quarterback over
Speaker 1: the last three years. All right, So that's that's that's
Speaker 1: pretty solid, nothing spectacular, no doubt, three of them. And
Speaker 1: all these statistics are about to read you come from
Speaker 1: Matthew Berry's article. Three of the past four years, a J.
Speaker 1: Gruden offense has been top twelve in the NFL in
Speaker 1: past percentage. All right, it's pretty solid. Jay Gruden offense
Speaker 1: has finished top tens in terms of total quarterback fantasy
Speaker 1: to fantasy points four times in the last five years.
Speaker 1: And Alex Smith, who was quarterback four overall, is being
Speaker 1: drafted as quarterback eighteen. Now you may ask, we've done
Speaker 1: this oxy thing before. He's not fantasy friendly. He's a
Speaker 1: fine NFL quarterback, but he's not a good fantasy football quarterback.
Speaker 1: And you maybe right, But as I said last year,
Speaker 1: he was QB four overall, he's going to an offense
Speaker 1: that is quarterback friendly. Was it Kirk Cousins that was
Speaker 1: really that good? Or was it the system? People love
Speaker 1: Jamison Crowder this year? Why dunt buff don't buff don't
Speaker 1: buff dub offf Well, dumb buff ub buff up off
Speaker 1: leads the yards and at least the fantasy points. The
Speaker 1: running game for Washington over the past couple of years
Speaker 1: have been pretty non existent. I get that. And the
Speaker 1: thought process here is Darius Guys is going to fix that,
Speaker 1: and maybe he will. But Alex Smith, he's going to
Speaker 1: do exactly what Kirk Cousins did in my opinion, And
Speaker 1: I love Kirk Cousins last year, and I love Alex
Speaker 1: Smith this year. Frankie, Yeah, Alex Smith, it's interesting. I
Speaker 1: feel like he's being a little bit disrespected. One of
Speaker 1: the first things when I came in today, you read
Speaker 1: me some of these Alex Smith's status. You're very excited
Speaker 1: about him. Of the Matthew Barrio, I want, yes, absolutely, um,
Speaker 1: But I mean I still do have questions because they
Speaker 1: draft Darius guys very early in the draft. Their offensive
Speaker 1: line I think is better than people realize. So I
Speaker 1: think I think that they are I think they want
Speaker 1: to be more of a balanced attack, and they use
Speaker 1: a high draft pick for a reason on Darius guys,
Speaker 1: so I think that you know they're gonna run the
Speaker 1: ball quite often. The defense, I think there's still some
Speaker 1: question marks, so they could find themselves in some shootouts.
Speaker 1: But you look at the last four years, and I
Speaker 1: know it's a completely new system. But Alex Smith last
Speaker 1: year QB four and points per game, great phenomenal, his
Speaker 1: best fantasy season ever three years before that QB twenty,
Speaker 1: KB seventeen, QB eighteen. You're right that he adds some
Speaker 1: um rushing floor because of those rushing yards. He add
Speaker 1: some fantasy floor, so I could cancel out any interceptions.
Speaker 1: But you know he's not that aggressive down the field.
Speaker 1: I don't think the weapons are amazing there. He's got
Speaker 1: Jamison Crowder, Jordan Reed went healthy, if healthy, Paul Richardson
Speaker 1: they bring him in, Josh Doson. They have some guys
Speaker 1: I don't I don't I'm not a name with his weapons,
Speaker 1: but you know I said too, I'm fine with him
Speaker 1: as my QB two. Just me personally, I don't think
Speaker 1: that there's enough upside here. I don't know that they're
Speaker 1: going to I feel like they want to be a
Speaker 1: more balanced offense. I'm gonna keep beating that one into
Speaker 1: the ground. I just don't know that there's enough upside
Speaker 1: here with Alex Smith. I think he's being I think
Speaker 1: he's being drafted adequate. He might be a little bit undervalued.
Speaker 1: He's quarter back eighteen. You don't think he finishes a
Speaker 1: QB one this year? Really, no, I think he's got
Speaker 1: I think he's got a long way to climb. I
Speaker 1: have him as I actually haven't a way to a
Speaker 1: long way to climb. He's never four overall quarterback last week,
Speaker 1: and the guys that have ranked right ahead of him though,
Speaker 1: Jared Goff, Matt Ryan, Marcus, Mariota, Matt Stafford, Philip Rivers
Speaker 1: and alexand could beat a lot of those guys. I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm I'm down to here your take on it, but
Speaker 1: I just feel like I currently have Smith eighteen as well.
Speaker 1: So you guys are underrating them this year. I'll tell
Speaker 1: you this, Greggy. So at first I looked into it
Speaker 1: and I thought, maybe, like am I Could I be
Speaker 1: wrong about this and you'd be a d percent right,
Speaker 1: can't I see that receiver target separation? Yes, last season
Speaker 1: was the best in the league for Alex Smith. So
Speaker 1: he was throwing two wide open receivers. It was almost
Speaker 1: two yards of separation per target. So I looked at
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins because it's a lot of the same weapons.
Speaker 1: He ranked seventh in that al right, not a huge
Speaker 1: fall off, so he his guys are getting open as well.
Speaker 1: Then I look at it. Alex Smith. Last year his
Speaker 1: a DOT at seven point nine, which is high for him,
Speaker 1: ranked thirty third out of forty quarterbacks the year before that.
Speaker 1: What a dot his average depth of target? I know
Speaker 1: what that means, I was explaining to everybody. Yes, so
Speaker 1: it's how far down the field his target is, not
Speaker 1: including like he could throw in a one yard to
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill and he could take it the distance that
Speaker 1: counts as a one yard a dot because that is
Speaker 1: where the target was to brank it down for those
Speaker 1: six point nine ranked thirty five or thirty six quarterbacks
Speaker 1: from fifteen he ranked dead last and a dot every
Speaker 1: single season, and he topped out at six point nine.
Speaker 1: He's not a guy who throws down the field at all.
Speaker 1: And he does and have Tyreek Hill. He doesn't have
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey, Kareem Hunt, guys like that who Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: We saw it against the Cowboys. He threw a short
Speaker 1: pass and he took it and somehow got in between
Speaker 1: three defenders and scored a touchdown on that And I
Speaker 1: wish I remember who tweeted it, but it's it shows
Speaker 1: you just how volatile fantasy is. They tweeted the two
Speaker 1: plays and it was that Tyreek Hill one member against
Speaker 1: the Cowboys where he somehow at the end of the
Speaker 1: half broken in between three defenders and scored a touchdown,
Speaker 1: and another one where Smith threw deep and the defensive
Speaker 1: back smacked the ball up in the air and it
Speaker 1: ricochet to Albert Wilson for a touchdown. He said, if
Speaker 1: you take those two plays away, because they were both
Speaker 1: like sixty yard touchdowns, Alex Smith goes from QB five
Speaker 1: to like I think it was borderline top twelve. I
Speaker 1: can't remember who tweeted it out, but I just in
Speaker 1: my opinion on Alex Smith is last year, everything broke
Speaker 1: right for him and he doesn't have the playmakers that
Speaker 1: he had last year on this team. Do I think
Speaker 1: he can be an efficient quarterback? Yes? Do I think
Speaker 1: he is the safest of the four guys that we
Speaker 1: were talking about day probably arguably only Matt Ryan. You
Speaker 1: can make that argument, I think. But the upside, I
Speaker 1: do not think he is the highest upside of these
Speaker 1: four quarterbacks. I don't. So Listen, there's no argument that
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the highest upside, right like obviously, but
Speaker 1: I think of the four quarterbacks we listed, if I
Speaker 1: told you he finished the best out of any of
Speaker 1: the four of them, that shock you. It wouldn't shock me. No, no, no,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't shock me either. But like again, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be high end QB two, and I think that's fine.
Speaker 1: That's where he is. But if we're talking about who
Speaker 1: can be this year's Carson Wentz, I don't. And it's
Speaker 1: crazy to say because he just finished QB four, But
Speaker 1: Mike laid out all the numbers gracefully, and that you know,
Speaker 1: he doesn't have the weapons he had last year, and
Speaker 1: he's not an aggressive quarterback downfield. So the possibility of
Speaker 1: him finishing as a top five quarterback again this year.
Speaker 1: I mean to me, it's like under ten percent.