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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chadmilman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week seventeen, Thursday and fl episode. This is

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Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys

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Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We make our moneyline Underdog

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Speaker 1: Round Robin, We give out our Fox Little Bet, our

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Speaker 1: Big Balls bet of the week, and we narrow down

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Speaker 1: our picks for the free to play Favorites Podcast one

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest because, as

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Speaker 1: our old pal Colin Coward likes to say, there's a

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Speaker 1: sea of money out there. Because there's a sea of

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Speaker 1: money out there, you want to follow along with our

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Speaker 1: official bets. You can check them out on the contest

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Speaker 1: website Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com when we lock them

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Speaker 1: in before kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using

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Speaker 1: the award winning Action app, you can also track all

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Speaker 1: the bets. Simon and I lock in following two accounts,

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Speaker 1: the Phase five and The Favorites Podcast. Now let's bring

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Speaker 1: in my co host, my companion, my compatre, my BFF,

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Speaker 1: professional better, Simon Hunter, Hello.

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Speaker 2: Solomon, how you doing, brother?

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Speaker 1: I'm good. Listen, Simon. As you know, I've been away

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Speaker 1: with my family for a few days and where we

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Speaker 1: are there happens to be a casino. So last night

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Speaker 1: I had my first casino experience with both of my children,

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Speaker 1: blackjack poker. The younger son, sitting at the blackjack table,

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Speaker 1: was feeling it, figuring it out. We had practiced before

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Speaker 1: we went away. We were practicing poker, playing blackjack at home,

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Speaker 1: you know, decker cars, whatever, and he was getting it.

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Speaker 1: And then at one point he had nineteen he started

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Speaker 1: to tap his fingers on the table like he was

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Speaker 1: going to hit. And you've never seen a group of

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Speaker 1: adult men and the dealer come to the aid of

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Speaker 1: a teenage boy quicker. It was just proved to me

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Speaker 1: that it takes a village to raise children these days,

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Speaker 1: because everyone started screaming no, no, no. Even the dealer

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Speaker 1: was like, no, no, I will not let you do that.

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Speaker 1: Even though the eye in the sky saw that he

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Speaker 1: had already done it, he would not do it. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: my older son playing poker, loves poker. He's a total

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Speaker 1: game guy. At one point, I'm sitting at the blackjack

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Speaker 1: table for a while and he comes up to me

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Speaker 1: and he goes, Dad, I'm going to finish this run.

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Speaker 1: I just need a couple more bucks, So of course

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Speaker 1: I give it to him. And when it's all over,

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Speaker 1: my wife says to my son, so did you win

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Speaker 1: or lose? He goes, I lost about ten bucks, and

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Speaker 1: she looks at him. She goes, well, I know I

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Speaker 1: gave you fifty. I know Dad gave you fifty. He goes, oh, no, no,

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Speaker 1: I just meant I lost ten bucks of my own money,

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Speaker 1: raising him right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing like that first real experience of galin where

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Speaker 3: even if you win, you're gonna give back right, no

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Speaker 3: matter what that first time, no one knows when to

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Speaker 3: walk away, especially your first time.

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Speaker 1: Right now, And it was thrilling and exhilarating. Was fun

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Speaker 1: to see them in that environment is sort of try

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Speaker 1: to do the calculations and see the experience as a reminder.

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Speaker 1: The Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 1: of age and we are in a place where they

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Speaker 1: were allowed to gamble legally. The Favorite Podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off terms.

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Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. All right, simon, We're getting to it

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Speaker 1: week seventeen. We got two more weeks left in the

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Speaker 1: regular season. Opportunities all over the board. It's time four

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Speaker 1: sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe want.

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Speaker 4: To do man.

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Speaker 3: We'll start off with what Chad wants to hear, which

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Speaker 3: is all the pros they love, the Saints who Chad

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Speaker 3: loves and I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm dugged in.

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Speaker 3: I'll let you pick it to do whatever you want

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Speaker 3: with it this week, Chad, but I'm gonna stand by.

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Speaker 2: I think the public is right here, the Bucks of

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Speaker 2: the right side.

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Speaker 3: The Saints are frauds and this is just not a

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Speaker 3: game I would trust them with. If this was three

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Speaker 3: and a half four, I could come around the Saints.

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Speaker 3: But at three two and a half, I just think

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Speaker 3: I just think it's the Bucks. But yeah, a lot

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Speaker 3: of a lot of pushback on that one, Like an

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Speaker 3: absurd amount of people called me and said, I'm making

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Speaker 3: a mistake.

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Speaker 1: But so listen, listen, we're going to get into all

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Speaker 1: these games, including that one. I will tell you when

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Speaker 1: I listed the five that I thought we'd end up

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Speaker 1: with that were sort of trending to my favorite, the

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Speaker 1: Saints were on the outside looking.

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Speaker 2: At That's good. That makes you feel good because.

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Speaker 1: I still like them, but they didn't make me.

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Speaker 3: I might be wrong, but I just I just have

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Speaker 3: zero faith in Derek Carr and you know, the whole team,

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Speaker 3: just everything about it. It's the first outdoor game and like,

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Speaker 3: I dig it three months, all of it. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: we'll talk about it. You know again, we talked about

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Speaker 3: we liked. I can't believe the number moves so much.

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Speaker 3: We both like the Dolphins. It's gone from four to three,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of books brutal, Like was hoping that

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Speaker 3: I was going to keep climbing. They smashed that one.

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Speaker 3: A game I am worried about, which I did love

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Speaker 3: was the Giants. And you know, I do have some

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Speaker 3: smart groups on my side, but there's also some smart

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Speaker 3: groups on the other side that like the Rams, and

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Speaker 3: I think it's all of us fighting over at the six.

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Speaker 3: So I know some guys who love the Giants at

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Speaker 3: six and a half. Six, and you know, this number

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Speaker 3: got to four, four and a half. And I know

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Speaker 3: another group that came in really heavy on the Rams.

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Speaker 3: And now I'm seeing it back some books this morning,

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Speaker 3: five and a half at some off shore books at six.

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Speaker 2: So that's definitely interesting.

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Speaker 3: One where everyone I talked to you for the most

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Speaker 3: part like the Giants, and I talked to maybe two

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Speaker 3: guys who really liked that Rams spot, especially under six.

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Speaker 3: It would just be crazy if this did land six.

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Speaker 3: The books would get absolutely crushed. If this does some

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Speaker 3: land on six. But that's another one we were gonna

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Speaker 3: talk about, because even under six I'm still not too weird.

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Speaker 2: I feel like five and a half is still a.

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Speaker 3: Pretty good number for that Giants game. Another game we

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Speaker 3: didn't talk a crazy amount about, but you know, made

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Speaker 3: sense to me when I talked to people that they

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Speaker 3: were on the same side as us. I think we

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Speaker 3: did talk about that. We like the Colts, talked to

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Speaker 3: plenty of pros. I liked the Colts. It's it wasn't

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Speaker 3: as much I thought I was gonna be. I thought

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Speaker 3: this was gonna be a huge smash spot, and it

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Speaker 3: kind of seems like teams are a little weird. I mean,

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Speaker 3: guys are a little weary of fading this Raiders team,

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Speaker 3: this defense. But I just think the Colts are coaching

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Speaker 3: all of it offensively. They're just they just put Minshew

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Speaker 3: and their players in the right spot. So that's another game.

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Speaker 3: I'm excited for us to break down again. We talked

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Speaker 3: a little bit about, but again we missed the number Houston,

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Speaker 3: like we were probably gonna put that in our contest.

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Speaker 2: It was three, three and a half. Now I'm seeing

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Speaker 2: five and a half.

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Speaker 3: You know, not that this was so much a sharp call,

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Speaker 3: but it was, like, you know, talk to a couple

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Speaker 3: of people it's like you grabbing Houston right just in

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Speaker 3: case CJ comes back, and you know whatever.

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Speaker 2: We did that Tuesday. So that was what eight am,

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Speaker 2: nine am.

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Speaker 3: I think by one o'clock here in Hawaii, the CJ

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Speaker 3: kind of news already leaked that he was on me

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Speaker 3: back practicing.

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Speaker 1: It kind of got in zero expectations we were going

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Speaker 1: to have that, Like that number just wasn't going to

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Speaker 1: work for us. I knew we were never going to

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Speaker 1: get it.

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Speaker 3: Really, I was hoping if it was still three and

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Speaker 3: a half, that had been great, like that had have

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Speaker 3: been a nice spot at the back Houston.

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Speaker 2: That was a nice number to back them.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, the biggest, the biggest two games that I

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Speaker 3: had disagreement with were the Lions. I know a bunch

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Speaker 3: of pros. I love the Lions. I like the Cowboys.

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Speaker 3: And I know a bunch of pros I like the Saints.

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Speaker 3: I like the Bucks. So yeah, an interesting week of

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Speaker 3: you know, some split split people. But I can tell

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Speaker 3: you from most guys I talked to most guys like

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Speaker 3: Chalk this week, Like, I know a bunch of people

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Speaker 3: are I know a bunch of really smart groups betting

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Speaker 3: the Browns. I know a bunch of really smart groups

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Speaker 3: who do like the Raves. I know a bunch of

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Speaker 3: really smart groups that do really like the Seattle Seahawks.

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Speaker 3: So it's it's a interesting week of Usually guys I

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Speaker 3: talked to like the dogs or they stay away, and

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Speaker 3: some guys are biting on these favorites because they think

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Speaker 3: a lot of these dogs are overvalued.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, I'm.

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Speaker 3: Excited to dive into this one. But I'm also like,

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Speaker 3: I got three or four in my mind for us.

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Speaker 3: I don't have a fifth yet for our five, So

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Speaker 3: interesting to see your picks are.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm excited to see if they match. Because there's

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Speaker 1: a couple couple of favorites in here on my list

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Speaker 1: and including one I added and we talked a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the other day that I think is going

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Speaker 1: to make for a good conversation. As a reminder, catch

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Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those

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Speaker 1: enjoying on YouTube right now, don't forget to give us

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Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network you tube page.

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Speaker 1: We will give you a foxhole of big balls bet

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Speaker 1: of the week. Also a reminder, another live show, folks,

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Speaker 1: we're running it back The Favorites Podcast and favorites. Watch

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Speaker 1: Party Sunday, January fourteenth, wild Card Weekend, Me Simon, free entry,

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Speaker 1: free drinks, free sweat, and the bets for the entire

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Speaker 1: weekend with me and Simon during the games and then

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Speaker 1: we go live at seven point thirty Shepherd and the

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Speaker 1: Knucklehead Hoboken, New Jersey RSVP in the description for YouTube

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Speaker 1: and the podcast. Also the day before Wildcard watch Party

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Speaker 1: with Raybound was Stocking Sean Kern or Me, Simon, the

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Speaker 1: whole Gang four pm. Shepherd and the Knucklehead January thirteenth,

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Speaker 1: RSVP for that as well. We want to see everybody there.

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Speaker 1: We had so much fun at the last event. We

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Speaker 1: loved hanging with everybody. It's going to be great.

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Speaker 3: If you want to guarantee, though that I'll be there,

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Speaker 3: make sure you go to the Sunday show. It's guarantee

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Speaker 3: I'll be in Sunday. It's a little up in the

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Speaker 3: airp I'll be there on Saturday, but guaranteed you have

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Speaker 3: my word, people, I will be there Sunday.

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Speaker 2: It's really honestly a good time all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Detroit at Dallas. This game's moved five and a half.

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Speaker 1: You pegged it on Tuesday I kind of love it.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a great spot for the Cowboys and

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Speaker 1: like there has to be some kind of hang over

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Speaker 1: for the Lions right now. And then I was reminded

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Speaker 1: of a stat from Evan Abrams Dak against the spread

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Speaker 1: as a fave six or more so now it's down

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Speaker 1: to five and a half, but there was at six

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Speaker 1: right before the show. Yeah, twelve and one seventy percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread. They just need this game. They need

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Speaker 1: this game more. And the only thing that worries me

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Speaker 1: is Toron Smith still being questionable, did not practice on Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: I think he's the reason they lost that game against Miami,

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Speaker 1: just too many bad sacks and the exact time when

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Speaker 1: they couldn't afford a bad sack. But I also think

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Speaker 1: Mike McCarthy might be coaching for his job.

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Speaker 2: Interesting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I thought it was honestly interesting that I talked

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Speaker 3: to pros who liked the Lions. I just I thought

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Speaker 3: everyone would be on Dallas or you just stay away,

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Speaker 3: and like, you know, the number made sense to me.

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Speaker 2: It should be six, six and a half.

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Speaker 3: That made sense to me, and apparently people smarter than

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Speaker 3: me disagreed, and they came in pretty heavy on this

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Speaker 3: line's team, and they've moved this number, and the public

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Speaker 3: is well, I said they would be right. They're pissed

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Speaker 3: off at Dallas. They're not sold on Dallas at all.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is a team that two huge. You

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Speaker 3: know everyone's watching kind of games. They've laid eggs, right,

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Speaker 3: They've just laid eggs against good teams. So I'm not

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Speaker 3: shocked to see the public split on this one. I

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Speaker 3: am shocked to see the professionals. So I'm with Chad

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Speaker 3: all hold my ground. I like Dallas, And you know,

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Speaker 3: this year has been really hard with this contest where

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Speaker 3: we've liked these games, like these Saturday games, Like we

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Speaker 3: both loved the Chargers last week, we couldn't play it.

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Speaker 3: That's tough. Like a normal contest, we're able to play

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Speaker 3: those ones. So this year, yeah, it's been it's been

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Speaker 3: really tough where you're losing a couple of games, and

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Speaker 3: like this one, I would probably get in a five

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Speaker 3: and a half, right, Like, it feels like we'd probably

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Speaker 3: force this one in. This is kind of a nice number,

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Speaker 3: So yeah, we won't have this in the contest.

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Speaker 2: But I like this game. I think Chad licks as well,

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Speaker 2: So don't share it off by the line movement.

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Speaker 1: I know it couldn't be one of our final five,

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Speaker 1: but I want to make sure we talked about it

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Speaker 1: because it is such a marquee game and was getting

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Speaker 1: so much attention. Another marquee game, as you mentioned, Miami

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Speaker 1: at Baltimore. And this is a bummer, right because this

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Speaker 1: number has bounced around. We saw it when we talked

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Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday at four, it got down to

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Speaker 1: three and a half, It got down to three.

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Speaker 2: Should have made it. Simon says, I was going through

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Speaker 2: but I didn't.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know Jaln Waddle likely not playing. I

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Speaker 1: think it really is about the number here, Like when

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Speaker 1: it's a three, Lamar is a favorite of three or

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Speaker 1: less or an underdog twenty one and six against the spread.

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Speaker 1: Harbaugh as a favorite of three or less or an

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Speaker 1: underdog eighty three, sixty and seven against the spread. That's

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Speaker 1: seventy eight percent and fifty eight percent, respectively. As favorites

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Speaker 1: of three or more. Lamar forty three and a half

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Speaker 1: percent against the spread, Harbaugh forty seven point six percent

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Speaker 1: against the spread. So like, if this gets back to

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Speaker 1: three and a half, you take the Dolphins at three,

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Speaker 1: maybe you take the Ravens or you pass.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I was just saying, if it's two and a

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Speaker 3: half in our contest, like I honestly would be tempted

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Speaker 3: to take the Ravens at that.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I don't think. I don't think that's going to be.

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Speaker 3: The option we'll see, but I would hate it just

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Speaker 3: because I'm heavily invested at this point in Miami at

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Speaker 3: four three and a half. It's just it felt like

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Speaker 3: the right spot to take them. But like Chad's saying

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Speaker 3: right now, it's like it's all about the number. Like

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Speaker 3: this feels like a games can come down to a

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Speaker 3: field goal. One team's kicker is terrible and not trustworthy,

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Speaker 3: the other one is maybe the greatest kicker in NFL

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Speaker 3: history and Tucker. So yeah, it's just when you when

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Speaker 3: you get lower than a three, my value.

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Speaker 2: Is going to definitely shift to the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's such a letdown spot for this

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Speaker 3: Ravens team, even though I know everything that's on, I'm like,

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Speaker 3: did they win this? They pretty much guaranteed the one seed, right,

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Speaker 3: I think I saw something like that Lamar not the.

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Speaker 2: I guaranteed he's gonna get MVP.

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Speaker 3: I still think Josh Allen is an outside shot, but

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Speaker 3: it's like it's hard not to give it to Lamar

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Speaker 3: what he's done this season.

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Speaker 2: You know, off season, this all factor is in.

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Speaker 3: This guy had a really tumultuous offseason dealing with the contract.

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Speaker 3: Then he came in, had to learn a new offense. Right,

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Speaker 3: this is a totally different new scheme and it doesn't

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Speaker 3: seemed that different because they're running the ball so much,

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Speaker 3: but it is different. Yeah, my guy, evn't The Ravens

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Speaker 3: clinched the Nirmer one seed and they get the first

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Speaker 3: round by if they win this, So it's like, doesn't

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Speaker 3: get I mean, this is what the biggest game of

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Speaker 3: Lamar's career, so that that's gotta that's gotta be a

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Speaker 3: real pressure on him. He's not not human, right, Like

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Speaker 3: we've seen Lamar struggle with pressure before.

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Speaker 2: This is as high as it gets. Miami.

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Speaker 3: On the flip side, I don't know if you've watched

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Speaker 3: any of this hard Knocks Chad, but like, I mean,

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Speaker 3: Mike McDaniels might be the most likable dude, and I

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Speaker 3: already loved him, but it's like he is just so

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Speaker 3: good at breaking the tension, Like the everything so serious

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Speaker 3: in life when it really shouldn't be. Like everything we

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Speaker 3: do is ninety nine percent of all we do is

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Speaker 3: just made up bullshit.

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Speaker 2: And I love that by Mking.

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Speaker 3: Mike Daalelds resees through that like that whole I don't

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Speaker 3: know if you saw the clip of who is a

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Speaker 3: Dan Marino is getting like love before the game and

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Speaker 3: he's like talking shit to him. He's getting this word

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Speaker 3: like we're gonna, we're gonna come in for your records.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna break all your records. Dan, like just talking

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Speaker 3: shit to him, but like in a lovey joky way

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Speaker 3: the two in Tyreek, where like they're all standing there together.

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Speaker 3: It's just like I love that so much. So with Miami,

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Speaker 3: they're just this team and a spot of I like

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Speaker 3: them to be able to be to the back door

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Speaker 3: this whole game, right. They have the offensive weapons. I

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Speaker 3: know historically they struggled in this position against Winny teams

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Speaker 3: on the road, but we talked about it. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I've been told us like in his career, he's two

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Speaker 3: and zero against the Ravens. I know they're a little

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Speaker 3: bit of fluky games, but he's played well against them

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Speaker 3: and he hasn't been even on the road. He played

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Speaker 3: in Baltimore. He was able to play well in that stadium.

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Speaker 3: I mean, that's a big deal. He's been there, done that,

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Speaker 3: so I know it's a long way wondered way of

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Speaker 3: saying you can still get three and a half.

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Speaker 2: We like it.

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Speaker 3: Just don't be really pissed at me and Chad Sunday morning.

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Speaker 3: If there's a minus two and a half on the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: it's just we're playing the value the number. We think

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Speaker 3: it should be three. It's sitting on three now, So

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Speaker 3: no play for me if it's three. But if it's

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Speaker 3: three and a half Miami, if it's two and a

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Speaker 3: half Ravens.

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Speaker 1: It was Dolphin super fan producer Tito who reminded us

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Speaker 1: that two was two and zero against Lamar. I think

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Speaker 1: the only thing Tito knows is South Florida sports number one,

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Speaker 1: number two. Ninety nine percent of what we talk about

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Speaker 1: being bullshit, I think is a low estimate on the

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Speaker 1: amount of stuff that we talk about. Bet is bullshit.

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Speaker 1: We talk about sports betting on our internet machines. That's

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Speaker 1: what we do, Simon. That is all bullshit.

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Speaker 2: Brother, important work, important work work.

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Speaker 1: We touch people every day, their lives a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: Speaking of Josh Allen, we touched on this game a

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Speaker 1: little bit. A lot of touch talk, yeah, a lot

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Speaker 1: of touchdown New England at Buffalo Buffalo minus thirteen. I

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Speaker 1: just feel like Buffalo is going to destroy. I know

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Speaker 1: it in my bones, and I see it in the stats.

377
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Speaker 1: Like this Buffalo defense has been getting better right Like

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Speaker 1: they needed time when they lost Milano, they lost your

379
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Speaker 1: Davius White, they lost Daikwon Jones. They needed players to

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Speaker 1: step up. It took a while for them to all

381
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Speaker 1: gel to learn the offense, to learn the defense, to

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Speaker 1: learn their new roles. Guess what we still Douglas has

383
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Speaker 1: been playing great since you've joined the team. On Halloween.

384
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Speaker 1: Daikwan Jones is back the defensive lineman for the Bills.

385
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Speaker 1: Bailey Zappie Bailey Zappi forty seventh out of forty eight

386
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Speaker 1: in EPA per play. We know it's the right thing

387
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Speaker 1: to do here. We know the Bills, even at a

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Speaker 1: big number on the right side, we have not been

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Speaker 1: afraid of this. This is one of the games I

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Speaker 1: wanted to present to you as one of our potential

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Speaker 1: final five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, if you want to get it in there, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I would let you, but you'd have to wear it.

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Speaker 2: It's just it's a big number in the divisional game. Brother.

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Speaker 2: The only reason I'm like want to get on it

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Speaker 2: with you is everything you just said.

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Speaker 1: Though.

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Speaker 3: It's like if Josh Allen brings his a game, which

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Speaker 3: I mean, let's be honest, we haven't seen him what

400
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 3: a couple of weeks now, Like it feels like he's

401
00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 3: hasn't played the games he was playing midway through the season, right,

402
00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:47,320
Speaker 3: he had a lot of games where yeah, he's still

403
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Speaker 3: turning the ball over, but he was putting up crazy numbers.

404
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Speaker 3: I mean, look at what Diggs has done for the

405
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Speaker 3: last month since they've switched OCS.

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Speaker 2: Like, it's just.

407
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Speaker 3: They've changed style. Wh I don't think they're trying to

408
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Speaker 3: blow teams out like they were.

409
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:04,920
Speaker 2: Like, it's they're.

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Speaker 3: Kind of bringing the reins in a little bit on

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen becoming more of a run first team a

412
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Speaker 3: little bit right, Like they want to run the ball.

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Speaker 3: It seems like they'd have found their identity a little

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Speaker 3: bit of running the ball and it works because it

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Speaker 3: brings everything down, like it pulls everyone up where Josh

416
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Speaker 3: Allen he can attack downfield again to guys like Gabe Davis. Yeah,

417
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Speaker 3: it's just been interesting watching their offense change so much,

418
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Speaker 3: which is again why I think Josh Allen she would

419
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Speaker 3: have VP like their offense changed so much. So I'll

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Speaker 3: drink the coolie with you because I have this number

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Speaker 3: right where it is like I think it's like you're

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00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 3: getting no value technically on the Bills. But everything you

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Speaker 3: say is so true of like historically a dog like

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Speaker 3: New England winning a big game on the road, now

425
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Speaker 3: playing another back to back road game against the team

426
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Speaker 3: like the Bills who just played a really wonky, sloppy game.

427
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Speaker 3: The Bills should kill him, like Chad saying here, So

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Speaker 3: I get where you're coming from. I'm just a little

429
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Speaker 3: worried because the Bills have not earned that kind of

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Speaker 3: respect this season. They've never had a game where they've

431
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Speaker 3: dominated from start to finish. Every game sloppy and a

432
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Speaker 3: little close, and that's kind of been the Bills identity

433
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Speaker 3: this rich again, I love them for playoffs because they're

434
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,000
Speaker 3: just this team that knows I pull these wins out,

435
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 3: like they can play in these really tough, sloppy games.

436
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: But you want to bet on them being not perfect

437
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 3: but pretty damn close to it. At this big of

438
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 3: a spread number, I'll ride with it. It'll be fun

439
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 3: to cheer for a thirteen and a half point favorite.

440
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 3: I mean, I usually don't do it all.

441
00:21:31,560 --> 00:21:32,200
Speaker 1: See with the numbers.

442
00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 2: I'm here for it.

443
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,120
Speaker 1: Ay, ay, I'll let you do it, but you got

444
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: to wear it. And then saying you agree with everything

445
00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 1: I said is a bullshit move. Like you can't say

446
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,080
Speaker 1: I agree with everything you said, but then you got

447
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 1: to wear it. Either we're in it together or we're

448
00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: not because you agree with me.

449
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 3: I wouldn't make it one of our five, That's what

450
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,560
Speaker 3: I'm saying. I mean, I'll bet it if you want

451
00:21:52,600 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 3: to take it, but there's other games I'd rather take them.

452
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 2: This for the our five.

453
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,040
Speaker 1: Well, we're not done yet, so we can see if

454
00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 1: you end up with this as one of our five.

455
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 2: You feel this passionate about the bills of thirteen and

456
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: a half, look at you.

457
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: Well, we'll see. I want to see what the number

458
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: is in the contest. It's thirteen, If it's twelve and

459
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,399
Speaker 1: a half in the contest, for sure. If it's thirteen

460
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 1: and a half, I don't know. We'll have to see.

461
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:13,000
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to Hedge, I'm not trying to walk

462
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:15,040
Speaker 1: it back, but I don't know what it is in

463
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 1: the contest yet. The bills make me want to yoke

464
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,359
Speaker 1: heels something, throw your hands something. So throw your hand

465
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 1: back and sack trouble now the bills, I'm making it

466
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:32,960
Speaker 1: happen now. Speaking of games where we were confident on Tuesday,

467
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 1: where you're feeling less confident today. The New York Giants,

468
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 1: they were plus six, they were your Signon says, it's

469
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: now down to five and a half, seventy one percent

470
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: of the money coming into the Giants. We know it's

471
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 1: professional money. You said something during the Sharp Call segment

472
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,359
Speaker 1: that the five and a half didn't really bother you.

473
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 1: Kind of doesn't bother me either, Like I haven't looked

474
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: at the contest lines, but I assumed it would be

475
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,400
Speaker 1: five and a half in the contest where we're taking

476
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: it at five and a half in the contest and

477
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 1: betting it at five and a half if you missed

478
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 1: the Simon says, not that concerned. I like the Giants

479
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 1: better with Tyrod Taylor. The biggest fear I have in

480
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 1: this game is Matthew Stafford. The Rams success throwing the

481
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: ball downfield and how dreadful the Giants' cornerbacks are. And

482
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 1: I was I thought you might say that's why some

483
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: of the wise guys are on the Rams.

484
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 3: I mean definitely the wise guys on the Rams, because

485
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 3: they've played some of the best football. Like speaking of

486
00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 3: teams playing their best football at least last this last month,

487
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 3: the Rams are right up there. Already told you as

488
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,439
Speaker 3: an Eagles fan, I'm dreading the two to seven matchup.

489
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:42,440
Speaker 2: That's how it lays out.

490
00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:44,200
Speaker 3: Where it's Us first, the Rams, Like who wants to

491
00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 3: play the Rams, especially if you have a bad secondary,

492
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 3: which is what you just said's true about the Giants,

493
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,480
Speaker 3: Like I got a bad secondary. This should be easy

494
00:23:52,520 --> 00:23:56,280
Speaker 3: pickings for this Rams team. But I still think this

495
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 3: is just a bad spot for this Rams team, Like

496
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 3: it's sandwich in between, you know, a huge win they

497
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:03,960
Speaker 3: just had and now they're going to play this game,

498
00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 3: they have to go play the forty nine ers the

499
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 3: following week.

500
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 2: It's just a classic letdown game.

501
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 3: But I told you the reason I'm a little hesitant

502
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 3: is I can't believe there's pros and the other side

503
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 3: of it. Like the Rams, I just didn't think they'd

504
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,000
Speaker 3: be pro money coming out. I just felt like that

505
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 3: was gonna be the most public team of the week,

506
00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 3: and I mean it's still looking that way right at

507
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 3: most books, it's still seventy percent of the bets. Over

508
00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: seventy percent of the money is on the Rams. You know,

509
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,920
Speaker 3: despite this number, like Chad said, we gave it out

510
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: six and a half, it went down to four and

511
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 3: a half. Now it's out five and a half. I

512
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,199
Speaker 3: still would take Giants of five and a half. It

513
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 3: just it feels the same spot as we took Carolina

514
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 3: last week. It's like you're playing a number. You're playing

515
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 3: a game they expect to be close, and even when

516
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 3: you know they were down I think two touchdowns Panthers,

517
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 3: I was just like, somehow we're going to get to

518
00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,159
Speaker 3: this number, and I can't believe it did, and it

519
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 3: laid it on three.

520
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:58,480
Speaker 2: But it feels the.

521
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: Same thing here with the Giants of a team that

522
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: you know I can't help, but like, I'm gonna have

523
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: to bet them and I'm gon have to put them

524
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:06,440
Speaker 3: in our money line around Robin.

525
00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 2: It's just a spot we play here. At the end

526
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 2: of the season. You expect a team that you know,

527
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,040
Speaker 2: Stafford and all them how well they've been playing. It's

528
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 2: really hard to keep it up.

529
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 3: And wow, that's a crazy staff from Evan, which if

530
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: you're a Rams backer like this, Rams are ten and

531
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 3: three straight up week before playing the forty nine ers

532
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 3: since twenty seventeen.

533
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: So forget everything I just said.

534
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: No, But well, no, I don't. You know what I

535
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: don't because teams that are in the final two weeks

536
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,440
Speaker 1: of the season that need to win or get into

537
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,280
Speaker 1: the playoffs, that need either to get into the playoffs

538
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 1: or a win to improve their seating. Yeah, facing a

539
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: team with a winning percentage worse than them, in this

540
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: case the Giants and the Rams forty point three against

541
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. That includes this week,

542
00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: by the way, unfortunately, leveland Buffalo, Houston, Rams, Colts, Falcons, Bucks, Chiefs,

543
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 1: Denver So a couple of games that we were talking about.

544
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 1: But certainly it's an indicator for the Giants. It just

545
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:23,159
Speaker 1: feels like this feels like Carolina for the past two weeks.

546
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 1: It's the game you don't want to bet. You're a

547
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:26,879
Speaker 1: little bit afraid of it. I said to you the

548
00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 1: other day, I was really excited about the Rams, about

549
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 1: the rushing game, about Kyrine Williams about the giants inability

550
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,720
Speaker 1: to defend against the run, and I'm like, this Giant,

551
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:39,160
Speaker 1: this RAMS team is a juggernaut, and you were so confident.

552
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,480
Speaker 1: You're like, this is when you bet the Giants. We

553
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: can't let people start chirping. No chirping.

554
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 3: Well that was more about I knew the six and

555
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 3: a half was gonna last. I just knew that number

556
00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:50,919
Speaker 3: was way too big and that the pros would hit it.

557
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 3: I didn't think they'd be hitting as big as they did.

558
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 3: I mean, this number did drop over to four and

559
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 3: a half, which is like, that's real money moving that.

560
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 2: Two points through a couple key numbers.

561
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 3: So the fact that is back to five and a half,

562
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:05,639
Speaker 3: all you people out there, if you didn't miss the

563
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 3: Simon says, I wouldn't let it scare you off. I

564
00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: would still take Giants five and a half. I would

565
00:27:10,359 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 3: take this, honestly, all the way down to four. So yeah,

566
00:27:12,640 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 3: to me, the value for us is still there for

567
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 3: the contest, even at four and a half. I would

568
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 3: still be comfortable putting this in the contest.

569
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:24,359
Speaker 1: New Orleans at Tampa Bay. You're saying Tampa Bay minus

570
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 1: two and a half. I liked the Saints at plus three.

571
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 1: The wise guys have moved this number. It was a

572
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 1: surprisingly public play. Everything you said was square in the

573
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: way you defined what you wanted to do and why

574
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,479
Speaker 1: you like this. Eighty eight percent of the money in

575
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 1: our database right now, wise guy money moving on the Saints.

576
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: One of the biggest luck rankings games we've had all year.

577
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:56,680
Speaker 1: Favoring the Saints. Baker thirteen twenty five against the spread

578
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 1: as a favorite, the fifth lead profitable quarterback as a

579
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 1: spread the past two decades.

580
00:28:06,320 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I got I got nothing for you.

581
00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: I hate it, like I know you're supposed to bet,

582
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 3: like Chad saying you're supposed to bet the Saints. The

583
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 3: numbers are gonna say it, the trends will say it

584
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 3: like as a better I want to be on the Saints.

585
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 3: This is such a spot to take them a fade

586
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,720
Speaker 3: a Bucks team who's just been on a straight roll.

587
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 2: But it's the Dennis Allen Derek Carr effect.

588
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 3: I just don't not I don't trust those guys in

589
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 3: the spot and they break the trends like it's crazy

590
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 3: to say. If they came to me, they said it

591
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 3: was going to be Taysom Hill, I'd feel better about it.

592
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 2: But if it's Derek Carr.

593
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 3: Jamis Winston, I just I can't have faith and these

594
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 3: quarterbacks it's just you know, Derek Carr is just this

595
00:28:48,400 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 3: guy who just breaks the mold where it's I should

596
00:28:51,280 --> 00:28:53,920
Speaker 3: listen to Cres Raybaugh. Like his first season a new offense,

597
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,479
Speaker 3: Chris talked about it. He's just terrible. And this season

598
00:28:57,480 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 3: they had the schedule, they had such an easy schedule.

599
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:02,719
Speaker 3: They have so many good offensive weapons and I just

600
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: never could get it together and figure.

601
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,240
Speaker 2: It out this year.

602
00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:10,680
Speaker 3: And yeah, this is for their season, this is everything.

603
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 3: Like they lose this, I believe they are officially eliminated

604
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: from the playoffs and the Bucks clinch right if they

605
00:29:16,480 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 3: win this in their division.

606
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: So you know, like we talked about earlier, I like backing.

607
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: Back in the road team with the points in this spot,

608
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 3: especially in divisional games. But yeah, I'm dug in, brother,

609
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 3: I'm on on the on the Bucks. But if you

610
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 3: if you want it to be once again, if you

611
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 3: want to be one of our picks, I won't find you,

612
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 3: just because I know the pros love it so much

613
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:40,080
Speaker 3: and I might have a little blind spot here.

614
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,320
Speaker 2: It's just I can't. I can't put faith into this

615
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 2: the SAT team.

616
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: I can't justify putting it in the contest knowing how

617
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 1: much you're against it, because I'm wrong.

618
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:54,840
Speaker 2: I'm human.

619
00:29:55,280 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, but your instinct your instincts, and this tend to

620
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: be right and like and honestly, last week, our instincts

621
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: were both right about Detroit. And this is where this

622
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:08,600
Speaker 1: is where betting just gets hard. Right, Like, even when

623
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: we talk about these trends, even when we talk about

624
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 1: the advantages, the models, the ratings, whatever, you're talking fifty

625
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: six to sixty percent of the time, which means two

626
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 1: out of three times you may win and one out

627
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: of three times you may lose. And that's not a

628
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: huge difference. So like, this could easily be one of

629
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,120
Speaker 1: those games where everyone's wrong about the Saints and you're

630
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 1: right about the Bucks. Right, it could be the thirty

631
00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 1: five percent, the thirty five to forty percent, even those

632
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: margins are small. Also, I don't feel as good about

633
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 1: this one as I do a different game. Okay, Atlantic Chicago,

634
00:30:55,600 --> 00:31:00,120
Speaker 1: and I know you love the Bears here and you

635
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,560
Speaker 1: were admittedly square seventy eight percent of the money on Atlanta.

636
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: This one is not moved off of three, and Atlanta

637
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: just continues to be one of those teams that could

638
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 1: be bad luck, could be bad coaching, definitely bad quarterback play.

639
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 1: But when they're a dog, I am more comfortable with

640
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,320
Speaker 1: them then when they are a favorite. They are getting

641
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: much healthier while the Bears are a little bit unhealthy

642
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: right now. Cole Comett did not practice week. Darnol Mooney

643
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: did not practice this week. Unlikely cole Comette plays DJ

644
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: Moore hobbled with an ankle. Atlanta's whole line, which has

645
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: been unhealthy the past few weeks, is back fully healthy.

646
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: David Donymada nose tackle who helps them dominate the running

647
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 1: game defensively. We'll be playing again, so we better about

648
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:57,120
Speaker 1: Atlanta if we get the number. To me, this is

649
00:31:57,200 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: number dependent, to be honest. If Atlanta's three and a half,

650
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: I feel good about Atlanta right now. Is three.

651
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:05,440
Speaker 2: Now interesting to me? Chad?

652
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 3: Of the last twenty years, who do you think is

653
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 3: the best Chicago Bears player right last twenty years you've

654
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 3: been a fan.

655
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 2: Who is the best player in Chicago bearris in the

656
00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:14,720
Speaker 2: last twenty years?

657
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 1: Probably Brian R.

658
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 3: Locker, and I think it might be Devin Hester and

659
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 3: the reason I bring that up, Chad, is you saw

660
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 3: they announced the Hall of Famers. Oh yeah, And I'm

661
00:32:27,560 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 3: oping Chicago fans like you remember how great this guy

662
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 3: was should be You should be pulling the strings, Chad,

663
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 3: reaching out to everyone, gonna be your first Famer. Yeah,

664
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,480
Speaker 3: And I was thinking about it because I'm with you.

665
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 3: Brian Urca was incredible. I was saying about Bear's history.

666
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 2: I think it might.

667
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 3: I mean again, Erlacker could probably play almost an air

668
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 3: in any era, but Devin Hester and Sweetness, they're probably

669
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 3: the two guys in your guy's history that could play

670
00:32:52,720 --> 00:32:55,440
Speaker 3: literally in enny air. Like you watched us highlight reels

671
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:58,120
Speaker 3: with Devin Hester. He's gonna have that record forever, right,

672
00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:00,560
Speaker 3: no one's ever gonna break that kick return recD. And

673
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,160
Speaker 3: the reason I popped up was just because I wanted to,

674
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: Like I've talked to another Bears fans he said the

675
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 3: same thing you did, like last twenty years, I'd go

676
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 3: Erlacker and it's like, damn, no one, No one remembers

677
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 3: Devin Hester.

678
00:33:11,120 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: He just so so many times. There was a game

679
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals on the Bear when the Bears had

680
00:33:17,320 --> 00:33:19,840
Speaker 1: that run of the Super Bowl where he had a

681
00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: run back that was amazing. And then that was a

682
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: rookie year, right, I think was it too it was

683
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: two thousand and five six.

684
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 3: And either his first year, second year in the league,

685
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 3: because I was I was, I think, uh yeah, because

686
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,880
Speaker 3: I was like my Madden days and like when he

687
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: came into the game, it changed everything.

688
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:38,280
Speaker 1: Look, he also had that amazing runback the opening player

689
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl that I was at where me

690
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,680
Speaker 1: and me and my buddy Matt nearly leapt out of

691
00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 1: our shoes in that game. And it just gets for

692
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 1: that gets forgotten A because it was a monsoon. B

693
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: it was when Prince played Purple Rain in the rain

694
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 1: and see Peyton Manning won his first Super Bowl, But

695
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:03,280
Speaker 1: that Devin Hester back gets forgotten. Are you trying to

696
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: avoid talking about this game?

697
00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 3: No, it's my long way away again. You come back

698
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 3: around the bear. It's like, think about your nostalgia, all

699
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:14,880
Speaker 3: your happiness. Don't jump off the bandwagon yet, And like

700
00:34:14,920 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: this week, it's really this week, I'm betting. Honestly, I'm

701
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 3: going against a lot of things we usually do because

702
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 3: I'm going with what these teams are at this point,

703
00:34:23,520 --> 00:34:25,840
Speaker 3: Like I'm not gonna keep making up my head what

704
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 3: these teams could be and what their potential is and

705
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 3: what they should do in these scenarios. And yeah, the

706
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: value is, like Chad's saying at three and a half, technically, yes,

707
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 3: the value is on Atlanta. But I just I don't

708
00:34:38,680 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 3: believe in them. I don't believe in that team, don't

709
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,840
Speaker 3: believe in the quarterback, don't believe in the coaching, And

710
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: I just think the Bears, I mean, they are due

711
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 3: for a bad game, I suppose, but they've just been

712
00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:52,359
Speaker 3: playing so well. It feels like it's all full into

713
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 3: place with this Bear's team, Like they know exactly who

714
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 3: the identity is on offense right now, and the same

715
00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,439
Speaker 3: goes for their defense, Like they're just so I want

716
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,840
Speaker 3: to say, they're so good right now, it's crazy. Like

717
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 3: this Bears team arguably would be terrifying if you played

718
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,120
Speaker 3: them in the playoffs, right if they could somehow get in,

719
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,480
Speaker 3: they would have been a terrifying matchup for most teams.

720
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 3: So Atlanta outdoors with Heinike on the road, gotta fade.

721
00:35:18,239 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 3: I gotta fade, especially against the Bears defense that turns

722
00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:23,360
Speaker 3: quarterbacks over, like the dude's gonna get turned over, and

723
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,759
Speaker 3: they're gonna make a one dimensional like you don't think

724
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 3: they know like we do that. All the Landa wants

725
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:30,319
Speaker 3: to do is run the ball and then have play

726
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 3: action passes.

727
00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:32,920
Speaker 2: Like Arthur Smith.

728
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 3: The gig feels a little bit up here right Even

729
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 3: their own fan base is kind of turning against them.

730
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm I know it is the professional spot

731
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,719
Speaker 3: to play Atlanta here, but I'm just not buying it.

732
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:44,880
Speaker 3: I'm like, I'm gonna stick on the Bears. I'm gonna

733
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:47,480
Speaker 3: dig in Chad. I know it's a weird week for me,

734
00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 3: but it's just I'm not buying a lot of this bullshit.

735
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 2: These teams are selling.

736
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 1: Very uncomfortable for me right now. I'm not sure who

737
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:59,200
Speaker 1: I'm talking to Carolina at Jacksonville. I feel like this

738
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 1: is one where we can rhon. We liked it at seven,

739
00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 1: it moved to six and a half. Trevor Lawrence injured.

740
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: I don't believe he practiced yesterday. We continue to see

741
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 1: he did not practice yesterday. I'm looking at my notes

742
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: more clearly. Evan last week had a great stat about

743
00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:19,040
Speaker 1: Bryce Young against the spread in the second half, one

744
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 1: of the top four qbs, and we've seen this as

745
00:36:22,160 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: Panthers backers for a couple of consecutive weeks. He just

746
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: ballin in the second half of these games, so you know,

747
00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:35,800
Speaker 1: uh oh, here's a cool stat most turnover turnover worthy

748
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:40,080
Speaker 1: plays since week thirteen. Trevor Lawrence twelve, Nick Mullins nine.

749
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: We're going to get to Nick Mullins and the Vikings

750
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes seven. My point is I'm comfortable with the

751
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: Giants at five and a half. I'm also comfortable with

752
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers at six and a half.

753
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's another again, though I hate because it's something

754
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 3: that we have to take right. It's like this number

755
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 3: is too big. We have to keep back in Carolina.

756
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:02,480
Speaker 3: Funny because every week I'm like, all right, finally the

757
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,399
Speaker 3: market will catch up to Carolina. We need to bet

758
00:37:04,480 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 3: him every week. We have to bet him again. I'm

759
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,880
Speaker 3: with you people, but people keep bitch about it. I

760
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 3: had someone complain They're like, I've been on the sideline

761
00:37:12,040 --> 00:37:14,040
Speaker 3: these last two weeks with Carolina because I just can't

762
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: buy into them. I agree, I understand it, like it's

763
00:37:18,280 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 3: it's not been enjoyable.

764
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: But we've been winning.

765
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,160
Speaker 3: Chad and the number it feels like it's still too big.

766
00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,839
Speaker 3: The market hasn't caught up to it. It's like, even

767
00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 3: if Trevor Lawrence was fully healthy, I honestly could see

768
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 3: this number being seven, Like, I don't see it being

769
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 3: that much higher because that's how bad the Jaguars have

770
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 3: been playing defensively and offensively.

771
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 2: So the fear here is I.

772
00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 3: Don't like back in Carolina on the road, they just

773
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 3: this season have struggled on the road more so than

774
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 3: at home. Like for some reason, at home they do

775
00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 3: rally their defense. I know they didn't show it last week,

776
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,920
Speaker 3: but historically this year they played better at home than

777
00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 3: on the road. So if there was a spot for

778
00:37:56,200 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence to get right, this would be it. But

779
00:37:58,640 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 3: me and Chat talked about that last shows. I got

780
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 3: a bump, shoulder, a bad leg, and he's coming off

781
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 3: a concussion, Like it's it's crazy how banged up and

782
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 3: hell together this guy is. Now he's got burns coming, like,

783
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,920
Speaker 3: you know, the d line of Carolina is not terrible,

784
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 3: Like they can actually get after guys for the most part.

785
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 2: So yeah, ched like.

786
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,120
Speaker 3: Another game where I don't know if we're gonna make

787
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 3: it our foxhole. But you know, I don't hate don't

788
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:26,800
Speaker 3: hate this spot for Carolina at all.

789
00:38:26,880 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 1: I think it needs to be a foxhole or big

790
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 1: balls because right now we are on the Giants, as

791
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: Simon says, and that would be the other contender for

792
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: one of those two. We owe a fox hole in

793
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: big balls. It feels big ballsy to me, because backing

794
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:49,799
Speaker 1: Carolina at any point is big ballsy. This would be

795
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,960
Speaker 1: I think our third time in a row backing the

796
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:54,919
Speaker 1: Panthers as our big balls better the week.

797
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 3: It's probably the right thing, but I don't think it

798
00:38:56,640 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 3: takes that big of balls. I got a bigger balls

799
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:00,360
Speaker 3: back coming up. And if you don't don't like, we

800
00:39:00,360 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 3: can go back to this one. But Wayne, do you

801
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 3: hear the game I like for a big balls game?

802
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 1: All right, well then let's put this in. Why don't

803
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: we just put this in Foxhoult.

804
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 2: You love this game? All right? We'll play in the

805
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:11,280
Speaker 2: Foxhoult Carolina.

806
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: Going to the Foxhoul with Carolina.

807
00:39:13,080 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

808
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 3: foxhole guy.

809
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,759
Speaker 4: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

810
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:18,920
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

811
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: The last game that I want to talk about, green

812
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: Bay and Minnesota is my exact decision. Of course, you

813
00:39:23,960 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: know I made this decision before JayR Alexander, the highest

814
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 1: paid cornerback in the NFL, was suspended. Do you know

815
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:35,000
Speaker 1: why he was suspended, Simon, I do. He was suspended

816
00:39:35,040 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: because in the game against Carolina he is from Charlotte.

817
00:39:38,200 --> 00:39:40,839
Speaker 1: Unbeknownst to anyone on the team, including his head coach,

818
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:43,000
Speaker 1: he walked out for the opening coin toss with the

819
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 1: captains because he decided he should have been honored to

820
00:39:47,840 --> 00:39:51,440
Speaker 1: walk out in a game in Charlotte. And then not

821
00:39:51,480 --> 00:39:54,120
Speaker 1: only did he walk out without telling anybody for the

822
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 1: opening coin toss, he then made the call of what

823
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: the Packers were going to do and made it incorrectly.

824
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: And so so this week he has been suspended for

825
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 1: contact detrimental to the team. He will not be playing

826
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 1: that aside, I think I still like Green Bay here,

827
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: like everyone's got injuries. I like, I don't know who

828
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,040
Speaker 1: the Vikings are playing at quarterback. They will probably without

829
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:22,840
Speaker 1: Jordanette Addison who did not practice. Definitely without TJ. Hockinson.

830
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:27,600
Speaker 1: And most important is it Nick Mullins, Is it Josh Dobbs?

831
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 1: Is it going to be the rookie? Like, who's it

832
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: going to be? So I think we still got to

833
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 1: go to green Bay.

834
00:40:35,880 --> 00:40:37,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say the only pushback that I got

835
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 3: from our pick, like the pros that called me up

836
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 3: and I had said at the time, I hadn't run

837
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 3: the numbers, and I think the number is fair at

838
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:45,160
Speaker 3: this number.

839
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 2: The model agrees with it. But the pushback is, this is.

840
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 3: A defense in green Bay that made Tommy DeVito the

841
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: NFC Offense Spliff Player of the week. It's a defense

842
00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,160
Speaker 3: and made Baker Mayfield the offensive player of the week.

843
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:07,440
Speaker 3: And then last week Panthers, the team that has been

844
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:11,200
Speaker 3: dead all season, put up thirty points. Bry she Young

845
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 3: put up thirty points against this green Bay defense. And

846
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 3: you know, as much as we like the praises green

847
00:41:19,200 --> 00:41:21,400
Speaker 3: Bay team and Jordan Love, which has been incredible, Like

848
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:23,760
Speaker 3: if you're a green Bay fan, you must be a static,

849
00:41:23,840 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 3: Like this guy looks incredible, the defense has just been

850
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,400
Speaker 3: brutal and now we are facing shocking to say, this

851
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: a Nick Mullens guy, who's is it two straight weeks

852
00:41:33,320 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 3: He's throwing for over three hundred yards something crazy like that,

853
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:36,279
Speaker 3: Like we.

854
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: Might not be facing him, That's what I'm saying, Like

855
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: we don't know who they're facing. But whoever they're facing,

856
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 1: it's either going to be a guy who is so

857
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 1: inaccurate he's got the most turnover worthy plays since Week

858
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: thirteen other than Lawrence, or they're playing Josh Jobbs, who

859
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 1: we know is not a quality NFL quarterback, or they're

860
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: playing a rookie who's basically lasted one play before Josh

861
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:04,000
Speaker 1: jobs came in. So we don't know what kind of

862
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: quarterback they're going to be playing, but we do know

863
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,319
Speaker 1: they have a quarterback who's really, really good and really

864
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,279
Speaker 1: good against the blitz, which is what the Vikings are

865
00:42:11,280 --> 00:42:11,719
Speaker 1: best at.

866
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:15,399
Speaker 3: The best case it is Dobbs, though, like we want

867
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,839
Speaker 3: the guy who can't throw the ball, right, Like that's

868
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 3: the weakness of this team. And we said it when

869
00:42:22,280 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 3: Dobbs was playing, like he's gonna eventually turn back into

870
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:27,280
Speaker 3: a pumpkin guy can't throw the ball, Like that's why.

871
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 2: He is what he is.

872
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 3: Nick Bullens can throw the ball. I mean he's has

873
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,120
Speaker 3: turnover where he plays. But like you know, when you

874
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,640
Speaker 3: have justin Jefferson, it's the game changer of game changers,

875
00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:40,840
Speaker 3: Like you can make the most turnover throws ever. And

876
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 3: the guy what was it third and twenty five, he

877
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 3: like pulled it down somehow. It's just it's incredible, like

878
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 3: you forget it because he had been gone for so long,

879
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: but it's like, oh, yeah, that's the guy who was

880
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:53,800
Speaker 3: the best player in the league last year at wide receivers.

881
00:42:53,840 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 3: So nothing changed for me, though, Chad, like, I'm with

882
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 3: you on it. I'm on Green Bay. I'm backing it

883
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 3: for what you just said. It feels like I have

884
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:05,800
Speaker 3: more confidence in Jordan Love and that Green Bay offense

885
00:43:05,840 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 3: in this spot, and I do a Vikings team that's

886
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 3: been playing so above their head, like we already talked

887
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:13,439
Speaker 3: about it on Tuesday show, but like I know they're

888
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: not going to give it to them coach of the Year,

889
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:18,120
Speaker 3: But I mean, this is crazy, Like this Minnesota team,

890
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:21,279
Speaker 3: I cannot believe they're in this position with their fourth quarterback.

891
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:23,640
Speaker 2: The whole thing is so crazy.

892
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: How just football, how dependent it is on the coaching,

893
00:43:27,800 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 3: Like everyone in the town level is so close, but

894
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:32,760
Speaker 3: if you have the right coaching, it can be everything.

895
00:43:32,800 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 3: And this Vikings defense and offense just can't can't hat

896
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:40,239
Speaker 3: tip them enough. But yeah, the pros, like I said,

897
00:43:40,320 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 3: the pros I talked to, they like the Vikings here,

898
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,000
Speaker 3: So don't be shocked if you should see the summer

899
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,600
Speaker 3: go up to two. Me and Chad would be elated

900
00:43:48,600 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 3: if this gets up to two and a half for

901
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 3: us in the contest. But I think it'll stay at

902
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 3: two one and a half. That's where it's gonna sit

903
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 3: to me until kickoff.

904
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 1: All Right, you said you had a big balls that

905
00:43:58,520 --> 00:43:59,400
Speaker 1: we haven't discussed.

906
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to for here.

907
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,280
Speaker 1: All right, let's hear it.

908
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 2: Chad, are we backing the Washington the Commanders? Dude?

909
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:09,279
Speaker 1: I didn't know if you're going to go with the

910
00:44:09,320 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 1: Commanders or the Cardinals. And look, we talked about this

911
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 1: the other day. Jacobe Brissett just getting in his licks

912
00:44:19,040 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: at the end of games when the game is so

913
00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:21,959
Speaker 1: far out of reach.

914
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:23,840
Speaker 2: I know, I know, I don't know what to do

915
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 2: with it.

916
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:32,399
Speaker 1: Is like, is San Francisco in a spot where historically

917
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,600
Speaker 1: they're terrible and you want to fade them, or are

918
00:44:36,600 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 1: they going to be in a spot where they know

919
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 1: they need to get it right and prove they can

920
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,920
Speaker 1: dominate a game. Trent Williams again injured, don't know his

921
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:49,880
Speaker 1: status for the weekend. Could be. Christian McCaffrey rebound grab

922
00:44:50,000 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 1: the MVP away from Lamar Jackson. I mean, it certainly

923
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: takes balls.

924
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 2: So that was one, and then you already said it

925
00:44:58,520 --> 00:44:59,200
Speaker 2: like Arizona.

926
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: That's what we were talking, these big favorites and these

927
00:45:03,160 --> 00:45:06,400
Speaker 3: big dogs, Like I'm with you on Buffalo. I would

928
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 3: just rather take Arizona's a big dog or take Washington

929
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,120
Speaker 3: as a big dog, like either one. To me, I

930
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 3: like them both. If we're saying which one do I

931
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 3: feel more comfortable in, It's got to be Arizona, right

932
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 3: where Eagles team just like the Bills, Who the hell

933
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,839
Speaker 3: are they to be catching this many points? Like they

934
00:45:21,920 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 3: keep having these games of letting these teams back in

935
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,600
Speaker 3: where just like josh Allen Hurts can't stop making stupid turnovers,

936
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 3: like he'll make incredible plays where like plays were only

937
00:45:31,480 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 3: a couple of guys in the league can make those

938
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:36,360
Speaker 3: kind of plays, and then he'll have the most boneheaded turnover.

939
00:45:36,600 --> 00:45:39,760
Speaker 3: And we talked about it to the Shane Stikeen effect,

940
00:45:39,800 --> 00:45:42,520
Speaker 3: like they lost their row. See, their offense hasn't looked

941
00:45:42,560 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 3: right all season, and Arizona is the perfect team to

942
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 3: get right against. Right they are one of the worst

943
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 3: defenses in football. But Kyler on the flip side. I mean,

944
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 3: you said in that Bears game they had tons of opportunities,

945
00:45:54,400 --> 00:45:56,879
Speaker 3: they just couldn't connect on it. And it's like, I'd

946
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 3: rather bet Arizona get unlucky here, because that's I want

947
00:46:00,239 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 3: to take to not cover the summer phelsically Arizona, like

948
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,719
Speaker 3: Arizona should cover this number against this Eagles team. The

949
00:46:04,800 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 3: number is way too big. It's just a classic spot

950
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 3: of the books. They know the ten point teasers are

951
00:46:11,640 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 3: coming in heavy, like this is such a ten point

952
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 3: teaser game, like this game, the forty nine Ers, the Bills.

953
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:19,839
Speaker 3: People love those kind of bets, like string all three

954
00:46:19,840 --> 00:46:22,600
Speaker 3: of them together. That's just it lines up perfectly. So

955
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 3: unfortunate this number has come down, but I would still

956
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: take it at eleven. If you would take the Arizona again,

957
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 3: I'd feel more comfortable to taking this over Washington, just

958
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 3: because we've seen the fortynineers actually play really well this year.

959
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:38,359
Speaker 2: We have not seen that from the Eagles. Well.

960
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 1: Look, remember on Tuesday, I wanted to make Arizona my

961
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: exec decision, and then I got squeamish because the number

962
00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: had moved a point and a half two points from

963
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 1: twelve down to I think ten and a half or ten,

964
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:51,640
Speaker 1: and so I walked away from it and went with

965
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:53,919
Speaker 1: Green Bay in stacks. I like that matchup a little

966
00:46:53,920 --> 00:46:56,399
Speaker 1: bit more just because I think Jordan Love is going

967
00:46:56,440 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: to be the best sort of offensive producer on the

968
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:02,000
Speaker 1: field consistently who has the ball in his hands the most.

969
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 1: But I think the breakdown matchup wise for Arizona in

970
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 1: this game is great for them, And I love Trey

971
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:11,719
Speaker 1: McBride against the middle of this Eagles defense that has

972
00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:15,120
Speaker 1: just not been able to be productive defending against the

973
00:47:15,120 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 1: middle of the field, especially tight ends in the middle

974
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 1: of the field. So Arizona Cardinals against the Philadelphia Eagles

975
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: as underdogs will be our big balls better of the week.

976
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:33,600
Speaker 1: Saying it for the entire hotel to hear. Throw that

977
00:47:33,680 --> 00:47:36,319
Speaker 1: graphic up there, Tito. We are not afraid of it,

978
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 1: not afraid of it at all. It's interesting, Simon, I

979
00:47:39,680 --> 00:47:42,000
Speaker 1: don't know that we have five games right now.

980
00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:44,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got two more games to talk about.

981
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,319
Speaker 1: Oh all right, all right, have you.

982
00:47:46,239 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 2: Come around on the Seahawks?

983
00:47:47,239 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 3: Are you still believing in Pittsburgh and Mason Rudolph on

984
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 3: the road in Seattle?

985
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:54,280
Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph on the road in Seattle.

986
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: I know, I know when you say it like that,

987
00:47:55,760 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 1: I mean, of course, of course I'm going to be like, yeah,

988
00:47:58,360 --> 00:47:59,799
Speaker 1: let's do Seattle.

989
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:00,400
Speaker 2: Do it.

990
00:48:01,360 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 3: Look, you gotta take some of these home chalk, all right.

991
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:08,840
Speaker 3: Not all these road favorites are gonna win. It doesn't

992
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: work that way. Like there's a reason they're sucking you

993
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 3: guys in with these three and a halfs. Yeah, if

994
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:15,520
Speaker 3: you don't want to do that, if you don't want

995
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 3: to do Seahawks, what about Colts? Like I just I

996
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:21,759
Speaker 3: want to take one of these chalky home favorites. I

997
00:48:21,920 --> 00:48:24,919
Speaker 3: just I like them, like I like the chalk this week,

998
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 3: I like some of these home favorites where it's just

999
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:30,440
Speaker 3: it feels like we're getting good value on teams that

1000
00:48:31,000 --> 00:48:35,320
Speaker 3: they're playing against, teams overvalued. Pittsburgh feels overvalued, the Raiders

1001
00:48:35,400 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 3: feel overvalued.

1002
00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 2: So it's like, I don't know.

1003
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 3: Which one of these I'm gonna try to force in

1004
00:48:39,680 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 3: on you, Chad, But it's like, I don't know, just

1005
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:44,759
Speaker 3: feels like a good spot for the Colts, and it

1006
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 3: feels like a great spot for the Seahawks. Like the Seahawks.

1007
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 3: Say what you want about that team. I know they've

1008
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 3: had back to back really close games. It's just like

1009
00:48:54,760 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 3: we've seen them at home when they're playing against inferior talent, which.

1010
00:48:59,160 --> 00:49:00,239
Speaker 2: Mason Rudolph is is.

1011
00:49:00,800 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 3: Their defense can turn teams over, and I feel like

1012
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:05,000
Speaker 3: this is a good spot for their defense, Seahawks wise

1013
00:49:05,040 --> 00:49:08,760
Speaker 3: against Mason rulf and the offense. But it's just crazy

1014
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 3: after one week the fear of the Steelers people have

1015
00:49:12,320 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 3: because you're like I talked to a bunch of pros

1016
00:49:14,400 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 3: who like the Steelers, and I just kept saying, it's

1017
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph in Seattle.

1018
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,880
Speaker 1: I mean, come on, all right, I have no strong

1019
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,439
Speaker 1: opinion on this game as I do and like say

1020
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: the Saints or Atlanta, So let's go with Seattle.

1021
00:49:30,840 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: Well, if I told you a majority of the money

1022
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:34,880
Speaker 3: and the bets right now are coming in on Pittsburgh

1023
00:49:35,000 --> 00:49:36,800
Speaker 3: and this number is not Budge from the three and

1024
00:49:36,840 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 3: a half, well.

1025
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:41,520
Speaker 1: That would tell me there's someone very very sharp coming

1026
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:44,359
Speaker 1: in on Seattle to balance this out, and for all

1027
00:49:44,400 --> 00:49:45,080
Speaker 1: I know, it could be you.

1028
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:48,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, give me gim me Gino Smith at home

1029
00:49:48,520 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 2: with the Twelfth Man.

1030
00:49:49,719 --> 00:49:54,440
Speaker 1: All right, So Seattle's in it. It will go over

1031
00:49:54,480 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 1: the final five before before we before all of said

1032
00:49:57,280 --> 00:50:01,040
Speaker 1: and done, because I feel like there's potential potentially.

1033
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:03,799
Speaker 2: It feels like we got to six or seven of

1034
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 2: them at this point, right.

1035
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:09,479
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so, yeah, I do all right. Before

1036
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:12,320
Speaker 1: we get to our money line, underdog around, Robin reminded

1037
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:14,879
Speaker 1: of the week seventeen contest tiebreaker is total passing yards

1038
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:17,960
Speaker 1: on Monday night, Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward

1039
00:50:18,000 --> 00:50:21,359
Speaker 1: writes a weekly article about tiebreaker strategy, and a link

1040
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,960
Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode description.

1041
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 1: If you want to leg up in the contest, Good

1042
00:50:26,239 --> 00:50:31,760
Speaker 1: luck everybody. All right, let's talk about how we're gonna

1043
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:35,279
Speaker 1: make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor of

1044
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 1: the NFL, part of your game day, Simon. Can I

1045
00:50:39,200 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 1: assume your number one New Year's resolution is to eat

1046
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:47,960
Speaker 1: more Little Caesars pizza. It is order online during our

1047
00:50:48,000 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 1: Pizza Pizza pre game one hour before NFL games and

1048
00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 1: get ready for some football and fun. Choose your favorite

1049
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: Little Caesars pizza or pick the toppings you crave. Sign in.

1050
00:50:56,960 --> 00:50:58,759
Speaker 1: I have a new motto. What do you think about

1051
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,879
Speaker 1: this one? That I invented? If Russell Wilson left your

1052
00:51:01,960 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 1: holidays crushed? Cheer yourself up with crazy crust. I do

1053
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 1: that so fast, don't I like the news about Russell Wilson.

1054
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:13,000
Speaker 1: He's so in the moment, and I just come up

1055
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,600
Speaker 1: with these phrases just like that. However, you are your pizza,

1056
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 1: you win. And speaking of winning, everyone scores with convenient

1057
00:51:19,640 --> 00:51:22,479
Speaker 1: delivery or our in store pizza portal pickup. So grab

1058
00:51:22,520 --> 00:51:24,760
Speaker 1: some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game.

1059
00:51:25,040 --> 00:51:28,279
Speaker 1: Also reminder, for the second time, you can catch every

1060
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:32,280
Speaker 1: episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday Thursday Sunday.

1061
00:51:32,280 --> 00:51:34,520
Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, don't forget to give us

1062
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,200
Speaker 1: a like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page.

1063
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 1: Let's talk about our money line, Underdog Round Robin pot

1064
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 1: dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks bot Dog. Well, shoot,

1065
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:54,640
Speaker 1: we're gonna have to put the giants in there.

1066
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:56,399
Speaker 2: Let's get Arizona in there.

1067
00:51:56,840 --> 00:51:59,319
Speaker 1: Arizona probably Carolina.

1068
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Panthers.

1069
00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 3: Let's see a Green Bay's number, I mean Green Bays

1070
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 3: plus one one ten?

1071
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:10,800
Speaker 1: All right, green Bay? What about Detroit?

1072
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 2: Okay plus plus one eighty?

1073
00:52:14,239 --> 00:52:17,960
Speaker 1: I mean that game you could easily see them running

1074
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 1: Dallas out of the building as easily as we can

1075
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: see Dallas dominating that game.

1076
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:25,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, it's all about what kind of Dak shows up.

1077
00:52:25,680 --> 00:52:28,839
Speaker 3: But historically Dak at home shows up right in these

1078
00:52:28,920 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 3: kind of spots.

1079
00:52:30,120 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 1: It's exactly what I say, who's showing up, who's on

1080
00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 1: both sides? Who's showing up for Detroit? Are they a

1081
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,920
Speaker 1: team that's hungover? Are they a team that's motivated. Are

1082
00:52:38,920 --> 00:52:41,520
Speaker 1: they a team that feels they can grasp the brass

1083
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: ring right now because there's still potential for them to

1084
00:52:44,600 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 1: sneak in with a higher seed. We don't know at

1085
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,800
Speaker 1: this point. At this point, to quote one of the

1086
00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:55,920
Speaker 1: greatest movies ever about last Night, at this point, we

1087
00:52:56,040 --> 00:53:05,000
Speaker 1: just don't know. Detroit, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona, New York

1088
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:06,600
Speaker 1: Football Giants. You feel good about those?

1089
00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:09,000
Speaker 2: Yeah? Right now?

1090
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 3: Looking at money lines, Arizona's only getting five percent of

1091
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 3: the bets and five percent of handle on their money line.

1092
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:20,799
Speaker 1: What are we doing?

1093
00:53:21,400 --> 00:53:21,600
Speaker 2: Hey?

1094
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,880
Speaker 3: If there's only getting ten percent of the bets, ten

1095
00:53:23,880 --> 00:53:26,560
Speaker 3: percent of the money on their money line, and we're

1096
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 3: the Giants. I just love when no one's bet on

1097
00:53:29,160 --> 00:53:31,920
Speaker 3: the Giants six percent of the bets, nine percent of

1098
00:53:31,920 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 3: the money on their money line. So I love those

1099
00:53:34,719 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 3: kind of spots where no one's touching the money lines

1100
00:53:36,760 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 3: and we're taking them.

1101
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:39,879
Speaker 2: So I like this once for this week, our last,

1102
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 2: our last part.

1103
00:53:40,640 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 1: Of the year, Simon, we are going ugly. What are

1104
00:53:43,560 --> 00:53:46,880
Speaker 1: your biggest bets of the week right now? Uh?

1105
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:52,799
Speaker 3: I mean it was definitely Giants. I haven't put too

1106
00:53:52,880 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 3: much x more though since numbers moved to the five

1107
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,400
Speaker 3: and a half. I'll be honest, but I mean I

1108
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 3: slammed it at six six and a half. Same thing

1109
00:54:01,280 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 3: goes for Miami, like love Miami if you can still

1110
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 3: find three and a half four been hitting that For

1111
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:14,280
Speaker 3: the chalk bets, I'm going heavy on so far Colts, Seahawks, Bears,

1112
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 3: and I haven't made a single bet on this Bucks game.

1113
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 3: I might have like a thousand bucks on it. At most.

1114
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 3: I was just waiting to talk to people and figure

1115
00:54:24,160 --> 00:54:26,839
Speaker 3: out what to do it with it. I know I'm

1116
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:28,719
Speaker 3: dug in, so I guess I will eventually bet this

1117
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 3: Bucks game, but it's like a part of me just

1118
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:31,880
Speaker 3: wants to stay away because I have no idea what

1119
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,480
Speaker 3: to do with it. It's like everything like we talked

1120
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 3: about me and chat, I want to take the Saints,

1121
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 3: but I just can't do it, so yeah, I know

1122
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:40,120
Speaker 3: people are shocked here that books are one of my

1123
00:54:40,120 --> 00:54:42,239
Speaker 3: bigger bets are and I just I don't know what

1124
00:54:42,280 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 3: to do with it, Like I just feels so damn chalky.

1125
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: But I know it's the right side.

1126
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 3: So come Sunday, I'm sure bucks will get up there,

1127
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 3: especially if it's still a two and a half.

1128
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:52,759
Speaker 2: But I'm just screaming sh right now trying to bet

1129
00:54:52,760 --> 00:54:53,240
Speaker 2: that number.

1130
00:54:53,880 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 1: Well, that's how we feel about putting in the contest.

1131
00:54:55,920 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 1: As a reminder of the favorite podcast is presented by

1132
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Speaker 1: one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, and

1142
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky

1143
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1144
00:55:29,440 --> 00:55:32,280
Speaker 1: bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioners restrictions apply all right.

1145
00:55:32,640 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here. As always on Thursday,

1146
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,759
Speaker 1: we're joined by Action Network Director of Research, Evan Abrams,

1147
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:40,120
Speaker 1: the man we mentioned so often as the engine behind

1148
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 1: the great stats and nugget you here on the show

1149
00:55:42,239 --> 00:55:46,680
Speaker 1: and across the entire Action Network. Evan, give us something

1150
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 1: to hold on to, really our guard rail on the

1151
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:54,960
Speaker 1: roller coaster of betting life. The last word with Evan Abrams,

1152
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 1: we're finished talking.

1153
00:55:57,200 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 4: When I went into this week fellas, I had to

1154
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 4: come up with a stat for Vikings Packers and Buck

1155
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:02,880
Speaker 4: Saints just because I felt like it was fifty to

1156
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:05,160
Speaker 4: fifty the entire way and everyone had an opinion. So

1157
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 4: this is what I came up with. So both games

1158
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:10,680
Speaker 4: are a win and survive losing go home type of game.

1159
00:56:10,760 --> 00:56:13,359
Speaker 4: So in December or later, when two division teams play

1160
00:56:13,680 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 4: both with win percentage between forty percent and sixty percent,

1161
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,080
Speaker 4: which is literally the fighting zone this time of year,

1162
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 4: home teams forty two, sixty seven and two thirty eight

1163
00:56:22,239 --> 00:56:25,279
Speaker 4: point five percent. Last twenty years, in those games, the

1164
00:56:25,320 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 4: two teams in match, the Minnesota Vikings the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

1165
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:31,480
Speaker 2: Wow, see what we'll see what happens?

1166
00:56:31,520 --> 00:56:33,640
Speaker 1: Alright, Well, I feel better about putting Green Bay in now.

1167
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:35,120
Speaker 3: Yeah that one.

1168
00:56:35,160 --> 00:56:35,719
Speaker 1: I saw that one.

1169
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:37,960
Speaker 4: I was like leading with that, all right. Two totals

1170
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:40,800
Speaker 4: worth talking about Detroit Dallas currently fifty three and a

1171
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 4: half would be the highest closing total of the season

1172
00:56:43,080 --> 00:56:46,960
Speaker 4: so far. Totals of fifty plus actually twenty seven and

1173
00:56:47,160 --> 00:56:50,439
Speaker 4: twelve sixty nine percent to the under last two years.

1174
00:56:50,480 --> 00:56:54,360
Speaker 4: So we'll see which way that goes. Inside indoors fast

1175
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 4: track Jets Browns down to thirty four on Thursday Night

1176
00:56:58,800 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 4: Football with a spread of seven and a half, though

1177
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 4: this would be the first game to close with a

1178
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 4: total below thirty five for the spread of seven or

1179
00:57:06,680 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 4: more since Steelers Broncos twenty twelve playoff game Tim Tebow

1180
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:14,600
Speaker 4: to the Marius Thomas over time shown. So that was

1181
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 4: a fun one. Good memory there. And then I leave

1182
00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 4: you with this, Patrick Mahomes, We have no idea what's

1183
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 4: going on, except here are the numbers. He is thirty five,

1184
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:24,720
Speaker 4: twenty two and one to the under in his home

1185
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:28,840
Speaker 4: starts in his career last two years fifteen and three

1186
00:57:28,880 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 4: to the under in his home starts, going under by

1187
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 4: six point eight points per game, and this season Chiefs

1188
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:40,040
Speaker 4: second half unders thirteen and two fourth quarter unders this year.

1189
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:43,920
Speaker 1: Fourteen and one. Hey, Matt Naggy, huh be Ben's been

1190
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 1: not not been very nice. Oh you had to make

1191
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 1: it about man nagget in gin. Yeah, Well, can't be

1192
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 1: about the receivers. It can't be about Travis Kelce. It

1193
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 1: can't be well, the drops, the wide receiver drops. There

1194
00:57:57,720 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 1: you go exactly all right, if we had to do

1195
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:01,920
Speaker 1: the five, the phase five right now to sign him.

1196
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:08,040
Speaker 1: Here's what I think. We're looking at Carolina, Green Bay Giants, Arizona,

1197
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,080
Speaker 1: and then I think it's coming down to Buffalo or Seattle.

1198
00:58:11,520 --> 00:58:16,640
Speaker 1: And I actually feel like by Sunday this could all change.

1199
00:58:17,200 --> 00:58:17,480
Speaker 2: I'll do.

1200
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 3: We need to get one favorite in though last week

1201
00:58:19,400 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 3: we did five dogs. I told you always want to

1202
00:58:21,400 --> 00:58:22,840
Speaker 3: get one favorite in there. We should have had a

1203
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:26,400
Speaker 3: lane in there last week. So either or Seattle, I'm

1204
00:58:26,400 --> 00:58:27,840
Speaker 3: happy to force in one favorite.

1205
00:58:27,920 --> 00:58:30,480
Speaker 1: Well, let's look, it's Buffalo right now. Buffalo or Seattle

1206
00:58:30,520 --> 00:58:31,919
Speaker 1: are the remaining too.

1207
00:58:32,160 --> 00:58:34,960
Speaker 3: It's someone with tougher skin. I can handle the criticism.

1208
00:58:34,960 --> 00:58:36,480
Speaker 3: I'll take seahawks.

1209
00:58:36,760 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 1: Are you fucking kidding me? O, life is criticism. Do

1210
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 1: you know what it's like. Do you know what it's

1211
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: like to be me? To have been in this business

1212
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:49,880
Speaker 1: for this long, to be raising two sons who spend

1213
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:52,960
Speaker 1: most of their day talking to you the way I

1214
00:58:53,080 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 1: talk to my parents, as if they don't even know

1215
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:58,000
Speaker 1: how to turn on their phone. Don't talk to me

1216
00:58:58,080 --> 00:58:59,440
Speaker 1: about not having a tough skin.

1217
00:59:00,240 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 2: You seem like a hando criticism Really well, right.

1218
00:59:02,000 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: Now, this reaction notwithstanding, do not talk to me. Do

1219
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,680
Speaker 1: not talk to me about not having touch it. Will

1220
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: continue to discuss this as we move forward. Download us

1221
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:17,480
Speaker 1: from Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your pods, Rate review, subscribe,

1222
00:59:17,520 --> 00:59:20,080
Speaker 1: leave us five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is

1223
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:24,040
Speaker 1: a gift. We're off on Sunday until Tuesday one forty

1224
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 1: five pm Eastern. Don't forget RSVP for our events. The

1225
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 1: Favorites event January fourteenth, Wildcard Weekend, Simon and I hanging

1226
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 1: out Sunday afternoon. I can guarantee Simon is there hanging

1227
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,160
Speaker 1: out Sunday afternoon with all of our friends, free entry,

1228
00:59:39,200 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 1: free drinks. Shepherd and the Knucklehead Hoboken, New Jersey Live

1229
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:44,560
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00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 1: you join us again. RSVP in the description for YouTube

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00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:52,200
Speaker 1: and the podcasts until Tuesday one forty five pm Eastern,

1232
00:59:52,720 --> 01:00:03,160
Speaker 1: See you next year, Happy New Year, Love you. Action

1233
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:07,720
Speaker 1: Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone

1234
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,760
Speaker 1: you care about has a gambling problem, help is available

1235
01:00:10,800 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 1: twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler