WEBVTT - 5/30/25: Trump Tariffs Back On & Israel Sabotages Ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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<v Speaker 2>Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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<v Speaker 2>Hi, Ryan Grim, how's it going?

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<v Speaker 3>It goes? Got my earbuds figured out?

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<v Speaker 4>Nice.

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<v Speaker 3>The phone kept insisting that it was going to take

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<v Speaker 3>the earbuds, So yeah, I told the phone, guess what,

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<v Speaker 3>no bluetooth for you.

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<v Speaker 2>So yeah, that's it.

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<v Speaker 3>You cut off now that earbuds have no choice.

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<v Speaker 2>When you learn your lesson, they can get a bluetooth back. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>that's well, I was just recounting the travails of my face.

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<v Speaker 2>That's all you missed so far.

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<v Speaker 3>I know that story.

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<v Speaker 2>So anyway, there's a lot to get to you this morning.

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<v Speaker 2>I think what we're probably going to do. We're going

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<v Speaker 2>to go through the LEAs with the terraces, which are

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<v Speaker 2>like on and off again, and who knows what's going

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<v Speaker 2>to happen there. Ryan, have you just give it exactly exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll have Ryan give us big updates on Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>ceasefire negotiations and what's going on there. We've got some

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<v Speaker 2>new Zorah and Mondani pulling out of New York that

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<v Speaker 2>is looking interesting. I'm starting to I'm starting to believe

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<v Speaker 2>he could pull it off. What do you guys think.

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<v Speaker 3>I'll never believe it until it happens.

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<v Speaker 5>I believe it.

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<v Speaker 3>And then and Cuomo will run like buffalo style in

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<v Speaker 3>the general election against him, So he's gonna have to

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<v Speaker 3>beat him twice.

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<v Speaker 2>If what's the name of the woman, what's the name

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<v Speaker 2>of the woman? Forgetting her name?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's a buffalo mayor, that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>I covered that so closely too. But in any case,

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<v Speaker 2>she beats the like corrupt incumbent, major underdog victory, grassroots

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<v Speaker 2>like people powered victory, and then they just turn around

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<v Speaker 2>and run this dude in the general elect Did he

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<v Speaker 2>run as a Republican or an independent, I don't remember.

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<v Speaker 3>I think even a Republican.

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<v Speaker 2>I think he did, and he's able to win in

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<v Speaker 2>the general. So I could see Quomo Pole in the

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<v Speaker 2>same and I think there's a good possibility it would work.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no laws in New York City that would prevent that.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, he already has a ballot line because New York

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<v Speaker 3>has like a hundred different parties and the Constitution Party

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<v Speaker 3>in this party, so he actually he doesn't even have

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<v Speaker 3>to do anything. He's and he's already on the ballot

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<v Speaker 3>for the general if he wants it.

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<v Speaker 2>Damn, that's correct.

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<v Speaker 6>Way a star is born was so wrong. But yes,

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<v Speaker 6>he's been launched.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, his first campaign when he ran for.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh did you really? He was on my radar.

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<v Speaker 3>He was part of this wave of DSA candidates who

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<v Speaker 3>won in the cycle after like AOC and the squad

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<v Speaker 3>one in twenty eighteen, and then this whole wave of

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<v Speaker 3>DSA candidates won state, Senate and state.

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<v Speaker 2>I remember that council seats in twenty Yeah, I remember that,

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<v Speaker 2>and he was.

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<v Speaker 3>One of them.

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<v Speaker 2>DSA and also I'm sure Working Families Party back they had. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>they had a great a great eight track record, a

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<v Speaker 2>great like election season right in that in that era.

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<v Speaker 2>So we'll do all that, I think probably then for

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<v Speaker 2>premiums we're going to do You've got the polster who

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<v Speaker 2>did the like Abundance Versus Populism poll. Yeah, we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to talk to you, which I'm excited about. I need

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<v Speaker 2>to take a look. Have you guys seen the Abundance

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<v Speaker 2>world criticisms of this poll, because I do want to

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<v Speaker 2>ask him about some of those, so I've got to

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<v Speaker 2>take a look.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, so smart. Basically the criticisms are hilarious. One is that, well,

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<v Speaker 3>this is not electoral, it's not supposed to poll.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, but they explicitly say like a political project. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>we've all I've asked Eric about that. I mean they're

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<v Speaker 2>you know, say that quite explicitly. So that's fine.

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<v Speaker 3>And then they say whenever a somebody with an agenda

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<v Speaker 3>designs a poll, you can't trust it. And so what

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<v Speaker 3>they have the people who organized the poll said, okay,

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<v Speaker 3>you like, look at the wording, like it's your wording.

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<v Speaker 3>Tell us precisely how you'd like to do it, and

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<v Speaker 3>we'll redo it so we can talk to tell and

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<v Speaker 3>the polster about that, because they said, give us your words,

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<v Speaker 3>you write another poll that is the most lopsided pro

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<v Speaker 3>abundance poll that you can think of, and we'll test it.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's see.

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<v Speaker 2>I feel that confident, Yeah, in the results, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>I think fairly so. And then this I've I've been

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<v Speaker 2>excited to have this conversation with the two of you guys,

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<v Speaker 2>Ben Shapiro taking shots at the OVONN, I mean, listen,

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<v Speaker 2>obviously it's because he's not happy with the OVONN being like,

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<v Speaker 2>this is a genocide in Kaza and I have a

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<v Speaker 2>problem with it. But I do think some of the content,

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<v Speaker 2>like putting that aside, some of the content of what

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<v Speaker 2>Shapiro said about the number of grown adults who aren't

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<v Speaker 2>acting their age, I thought that was kind of interesting,

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<v Speaker 2>and I wanted to get your thoughts on if there's

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<v Speaker 2>any there there putting aside the like, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>Israel bias, like that piece of it. So wanted to

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<v Speaker 2>get to that as well. But let's go ahead and

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<v Speaker 2>start with what's going on with the tariffs. So last

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<v Speaker 2>week left off, the tariffs were off because the court

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<v Speaker 2>ruled this this what is it Court of International Trade

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<v Speaker 2>rule that the tariffs exceeded the powers of AIPA the

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<v Speaker 2>authority they were using to do the across the board

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<v Speaker 2>Liberation Day tariffs. Now we have another court that has

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<v Speaker 2>weighed that has said, listen, there's an appeal process that

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<v Speaker 2>is going to play out, and in the meantime, we

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<v Speaker 2>are going to reinstate those tariffs for now. So they say.

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<v Speaker 2>A federal appeals court on Thursday granted the Trump administration's

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<v Speaker 2>request to temporarily pause a lower court ruling that struck

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<v Speaker 2>down most of President Trump's terariffs. Trump administration and early

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<v Speaker 2>told the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit

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<v Speaker 2>it would seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court as

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<v Speaker 2>soon as Friday if the tariff ruling was not quickly

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<v Speaker 2>put on pause. So they are headed to the Supreme Court.

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<v Speaker 2>There's one other piece of this I want to put

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<v Speaker 2>up before I get to start with Emily's reaction, because

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<v Speaker 2>I'm very interested in what you have to say about this.

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<v Speaker 2>So Trump, in response to this starts tearing into the

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<v Speaker 2>Federalist Society, which is involved in vetting all of these judges,

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<v Speaker 2>and specifically tears into Leonard Leo, the head of the

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<v Speaker 2>Federal Society, who is so influential in conservative circles and Emily,

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<v Speaker 2>I know you'll be able to speak to that better

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<v Speaker 2>than anyone. Here's Snania's like commentary on this, which I

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<v Speaker 2>also think is sort of a stude. He says, Trump

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<v Speaker 2>now denouncing the Federalist Society, saying he doesn't want their

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<v Speaker 2>judges anymore, pretty much the last tie to conservatism as

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<v Speaker 2>an ideology. We're getting judges from now on who act

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<v Speaker 2>like sickophants in the administration. But anyway, I won't read

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<v Speaker 2>this whole thing, but this is just him like really

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<v Speaker 2>going after Leonard Leo and calling them back room hustlers

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<v Speaker 2>and all these sorts of things. So Emily, tell us,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, how is this being received in conservative world

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<v Speaker 2>and what is your view of the import here?

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<v Speaker 6>This is how a lot of conservatives actually feel about

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<v Speaker 6>Leonard leon now and I shall, oh, really maga conservatives.

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<v Speaker 6>There's a difference between the sort of old conservative movement

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<v Speaker 6>that is still really loyal to the Reagan crew and

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<v Speaker 6>the Reagan years and the Reagan legacy, and then there's

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<v Speaker 6>Maga world, which has been frustrated, particularly by Amy Coney Barrett,

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<v Speaker 6>sometimes by Brett Kavanaugh, and then also by some of

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<v Speaker 6>these lower judges, these lower court judges, and so it's

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<v Speaker 6>not really surprising that Donald Trump has had that planted

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<v Speaker 6>in his ear and that he would even like kind

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<v Speaker 6>of organically feel frustrated by that. It's just a matter

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<v Speaker 6>of time before that, you know, even boils over further.

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<v Speaker 6>But it was interesting in that true Social Post because

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<v Speaker 6>he also says he doesn't even really think it's Leonard Leo's.

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<v Speaker 4>Fault, So like he spends the first half of the

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<v Speaker 4>truth Social Post.

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<v Speaker 6>Unloading on Leonard Leo and then being like, but actually,

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<v Speaker 6>like these judges, it's these these judges are just a

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<v Speaker 6>complete and total disaster.

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<v Speaker 4>So it was weird because.

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<v Speaker 2>Nilla says they're communist judges.

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<v Speaker 6>Communist judges, right, which certainly would have nothing to do

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<v Speaker 6>with Leonard Leo. So anyway, all that is say, it's

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<v Speaker 6>pretty like, I wonder where this goes from here in

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<v Speaker 6>conservative world because the Supreme Court all day the White

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<v Speaker 6>House yesterday was saying we're going to take this up

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<v Speaker 6>to the Supreme Court. Supreme Court we are utterly confident

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<v Speaker 6>will decide in our favor.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, the Supreme Court.

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<v Speaker 6>Donald Trump, when he says Leonard Leo helped him pick judges,

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<v Speaker 6>he's talking about dozens and dozens of people in lower courts,

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<v Speaker 6>but also the Supreme Court. Right, every single person on

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<v Speaker 6>the Supreme Court that is a Trump appointee or Trump

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<v Speaker 6>nominee was picked from the list that Leonard Leo gave

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<v Speaker 6>him in twenty sixteen in order to get conservative votes.

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<v Speaker 6>That's the lore we go back to twenty sixteen. Trump

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<v Speaker 6>needs to get the support of the conservative movement before

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<v Speaker 6>the election, and so Leonard Leo gives him a list

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<v Speaker 6>of judges that he will pick, and Trump picks every

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<v Speaker 6>single judge and justice from that list. And so now

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<v Speaker 6>most of the Conservative majority is Leonard Leo Trump picked,

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<v Speaker 6>and the White House is saying they have every bit

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<v Speaker 6>of confidence in them.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's contradict it's a self contradiction.

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<v Speaker 2>Of course, it's wild to think too. So first of all,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I certainly would not surprise me it's a

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<v Speaker 2>Supreme Court upholds the decision that the tariffs exceed the

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<v Speaker 2>statutory authority. Because part of the federalist society was cultural

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<v Speaker 2>issues and part of it is being very pro business

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<v Speaker 2>and business is not excited about this terror regime. Would

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<v Speaker 2>not surprise me at all if that was the finding.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know. And also I just I mean, I

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<v Speaker 2>think on its face, it is a preposterate. It is

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<v Speaker 2>preposterous to imagine that you can as a executive claim

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<v Speaker 2>this much unilateral power for yourself when the power of

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<v Speaker 2>the person is so clearly busted in the Constitution with

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<v Speaker 2>the UH with the Congress. So putting that aside, it's

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<v Speaker 2>also ironic that, you know, back in twenty sixteen, right

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<v Speaker 2>after the grabber by the pussy fallout is happening, and

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<v Speaker 2>he's at risk of losing the evangelical right and there's

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<v Speaker 2>like a real, you know, potential split in the foundation

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<v Speaker 2>of his coalition. The way he shorees that up is

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<v Speaker 2>by putting out this list of like federalist society, like

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<v Speaker 2>here are the Supreme Court justices I will consider, like

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<v Speaker 2>I'm locking it in now. These are the people, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're your people. And that's a important part of how

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<v Speaker 2>he's able to keep his coalition together and secure victory.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's wild to now fast forward to now and

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<v Speaker 2>see him going after them because they're not just doing

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<v Speaker 2>everything he wants them to do, you know. To Hanania's

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<v Speaker 2>commentary there, I agree and I disagree, because obviously Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is his own animal and is just like the cult

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<v Speaker 2>of Trump. But when you look at the primary accomplishments

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<v Speaker 2>that he has you know, effectuated an office, it's like

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<v Speaker 2>destroying the administrative state. That is a big you know,

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<v Speaker 2>traditional Reagan type conservative goal.

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<v Speaker 4>It was a big Leonard Leo goal.

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<v Speaker 2>Actually, yeah, absolutely, you know russ vote is deeply steeped

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<v Speaker 2>in the conservative movement. Like this is not some rando

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<v Speaker 2>who hasn't been in Washington before.

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<v Speaker 5>Right.

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<v Speaker 2>And then the tax cut from the first administration, which

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<v Speaker 2>is the number one priority right now of the second administration.

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<v Speaker 2>It was literally written by like Paul Ryan and the

0:10:52.720 --> 0:10:56.480
<v Speaker 2>Heritage Foundation, so it's always with him. It's like, well,

0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.400
<v Speaker 2>there is there are differences, but also I don't want

0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:03.200
<v Speaker 2>to overstay the amount of break that Trump is that

0:11:03.240 --> 0:11:07.719
<v Speaker 2>Trump's administration in practice has represented from Republican administrations of

0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:09.480
<v Speaker 2>the past. Ryan, what do you think about that sort

0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:09.720
<v Speaker 2>of thing?

0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:17.200
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, this, like Trump is really going for a basically

0:11:17.240 --> 0:11:21.440
<v Speaker 3>a clean break, not a clean break from, but complete

0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:25.560
<v Speaker 3>domination over you know, all factions of Conservatism.

0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:27.560
<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's the way to put it. So it's not

0:11:27.640 --> 0:11:32.360
<v Speaker 2>before necessarily an ideological break, but he wants complete domination over.

0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.760
<v Speaker 2>I think that's the way the way to put it right, it's.

0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:39.880
<v Speaker 3>Like, Okay, you evangelicals have this these politics, You fed

0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:42.920
<v Speaker 3>SoC people have these politics. You Chamber of Commerce people

0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:47.000
<v Speaker 3>have these politics. You America First or Jendie Vance types

0:11:47.040 --> 0:11:49.680
<v Speaker 3>have this going on. It's like you all serve me.

0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:52.840
<v Speaker 3>And this is and trump Ism is what I say

0:11:52.840 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 3>it is, and that's that's how it's going to be.

0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:59.400
<v Speaker 3>And so yeah, this because if if he gets his

0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:03.600
<v Speaker 3>tariffs shut down by the Supreme Court, that's a pretty

0:12:03.960 --> 0:12:09.600
<v Speaker 3>radical rebuke to him his policy and his domination over

0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 3>the entire coalition. So he seems to be you really going.

0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:16.640
<v Speaker 2>For it here, Emily.

0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:18.920
<v Speaker 6>Oh sorry, I was just gonna say, I forget who

0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:20.840
<v Speaker 6>posted this this week, but someone posted like this is

0:12:20.880 --> 0:12:24.440
<v Speaker 6>Auderborough mob shit. And it's a really good way to

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 6>put it, because I think a lot of people try

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:29.600
<v Speaker 6>to shoehorn what Trump is doing into an ideology, but

0:12:29.640 --> 0:12:33.040
<v Speaker 6>it's actually Trump is trying to sort of shoehorn. Trump

0:12:33.080 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 6>is trying to force the ideology of the right to

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.280
<v Speaker 6>be deference to Trump and there are times where it

0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:41.160
<v Speaker 6>overlaps with the goal of russ vote or the goal

0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.560
<v Speaker 6>of lear Lee or whatever, but particularly Russ and you know,

0:12:43.640 --> 0:12:46.800
<v Speaker 6>creating the unitary executive and restoring executive power and all

0:12:46.840 --> 0:12:48.600
<v Speaker 6>of that. But there are times when it's also just

0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:52.559
<v Speaker 6>like Donald Trump isn't overlapping with the ideological goal. Donald

0:12:52.559 --> 0:12:55.600
<v Speaker 6>Trump is just Roy Kohane as president of the United States.

0:12:55.679 --> 0:13:00.160
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's right, Emily. You had pool duty yesterday and

0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.600
<v Speaker 2>so you were there for all of you know, everything

0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:04.719
<v Speaker 2>there was to get out of this administration in terms

0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:06.880
<v Speaker 2>of the response to this court decision. Let me go

0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:09.960
<v Speaker 2>ahead and play a little bit here of Peter Navarro saying, listen,

0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:12.440
<v Speaker 2>this pause and terrorists doesn't really change anything at all.

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:18.040
<v Speaker 7>These will not affect the negotiations in any way. You

0:13:18.120 --> 0:13:21.559
<v Speaker 7>have people out there in the world. Since we look

0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 7>at the court decisions, the court was clear, as I said,

0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:30.200
<v Speaker 7>that President has brought it forward the post hariffs. They

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:35.360
<v Speaker 7>took issue with the particular statues be used.

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:39.800
<v Speaker 2>So there have been other indications too that they're going

0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:44.280
<v Speaker 2>to try to move forward in some way. You know,

0:13:44.320 --> 0:13:46.320
<v Speaker 2>what did you make of those comments from Navarro and

0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.120
<v Speaker 2>from other administration officials as well.

0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:48.640
<v Speaker 5>Well?

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.720
<v Speaker 6>And that last part there about the particulars of the

0:13:50.720 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 6>statute from Peter Navarro is why the administration is projecting

0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:56.840
<v Speaker 6>utter confidence going into the Supreme Court. They feel like

0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:01.440
<v Speaker 6>they can, they feel like they're coitutional argument will be

0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:06.320
<v Speaker 6>like met with agreement from conservative Supreme Court justices, because

0:14:06.320 --> 0:14:09.600
<v Speaker 6>it's not quite as simple as just oh, you know,

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 6>President doesn't have the ability to do this. But the

0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 6>question that I kept trying to get in both at

0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.439
<v Speaker 6>the briefing and to Navarro, and it's just some kind

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 6>of luck thing. Some people are very skilled at getting

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 6>their questions asked, like their hands super loud, or they

0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:25.280
<v Speaker 6>if you talk to White House reporters about their tricks,

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 6>it comes down to like how they smile and make.

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:29.920
<v Speaker 3>Real craft trying to get a drink.

0:14:30.680 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, exactly, Yeah, Ingram knows what's up. So anyway, it

0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 6>was the question is just if part of the problem

0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 6>from this kicking through the court system is that it

0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:51.680
<v Speaker 6>creates complete uncertainty. Again, you can kill two birds with

0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.360
<v Speaker 6>one stone here and go through Congress, why would the

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 6>administration not pass the slate of tariffs or even like

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 6>a slightly reduced slate of tariffs through Congress, because then

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:05.960
<v Speaker 6>that brings certainty to investors and it removes the problem

0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 6>of the courts. But of course they know that they

0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 6>can't pass these through Congress, they have no confidence that

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 6>they would be able to get you know, Ron Johnson

0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:18.240
<v Speaker 6>and the Susan Collins, they sort of hardcore fiscal conservatives,

0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:19.920
<v Speaker 6>but also moderate conservatives.

0:15:20.360 --> 0:15:23.960
<v Speaker 4>Even this is a perfect continuation what we were just

0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:24.600
<v Speaker 4>talking about.

0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:27.080
<v Speaker 6>Even in the kind of cult of Trump era of

0:15:27.120 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 6>the Republican Party, tariffs are aligned too far for a

0:15:30.760 --> 0:15:34.280
<v Speaker 6>lot of traditional Republicans and moderate Republicans. So they're stuck

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.040
<v Speaker 6>with having to as you have pointed out many times, Crystal,

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 6>rely on Trump kind of waving his magic wand which

0:15:40.040 --> 0:15:43.880
<v Speaker 6>he definitely enjoys. But that's because it's actually this is

0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:47.920
<v Speaker 6>why Congress, why the founders delegated the power to Congress,

0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 6>because it's not supported by the representatives of the public.

0:15:52.680 --> 0:15:54.960
<v Speaker 6>It's just supported by the president. And so it's a

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:55.800
<v Speaker 6>huge problem.

0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 2>And the other reason why this is delegated to Congress

0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.040
<v Speaker 2>is the exact reason Trump doesn't want to have to

0:16:02.080 --> 0:16:04.360
<v Speaker 2>go through Congress, which is he wants people to have

0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:06.840
<v Speaker 2>to go and petition the king. And so if you

0:16:06.960 --> 0:16:10.720
<v Speaker 2>have some stable regime that has to be subject to

0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:15.320
<v Speaker 2>legislative branch scrutiny, then you take all the fun of it.

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:17.560
<v Speaker 2>In terms of what he actually wants to achieve or

0:16:17.640 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 2>not to mention, you know, all the like, oh, potential

0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 2>development deals that can be thrown his way, or if

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:24.440
<v Speaker 2>he wants to do a favor for Elon and make

0:16:24.480 --> 0:16:27.080
<v Speaker 2>sure they get Starlink or they're partnering with Palenteer or

0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.360
<v Speaker 2>whatever it is that's in his basket, you know, of

0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:34.240
<v Speaker 2>Goodie's wish list, then that becomes more much more difficult

0:16:34.280 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 2>to effectuate. If you're actually going through the legislative branch.

0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.400
<v Speaker 6>And just ran you can respond to this, because I

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:42.240
<v Speaker 6>think you might have thought. It's one of the questions

0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 6>people were asking throughout the day is doesn't this destroy

0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:48.800
<v Speaker 6>your leverage? I mean, doesn't going through the courts destroy

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 6>your leverage when you're going to other countries. I mean,

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:53.960
<v Speaker 6>just yesterday Kevin Hassett was saying, they expect many, many

0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:56.520
<v Speaker 6>deals to be coming in the next few weeks. But

0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:58.880
<v Speaker 6>who's going to make a deal with you when they

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:01.440
<v Speaker 6>don't even know whether the courts are going to block

0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.480
<v Speaker 6>your tariffs from being imp Absolutely so, right, I feel

0:17:04.520 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 6>like what leverage India?

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:10.240
<v Speaker 3>I don't. I don't actually think that that's that's significant,

0:17:10.280 --> 0:17:12.240
<v Speaker 3>that plays that significant of a role, because I think

0:17:13.880 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 3>the US has leverage because it's it's an economic superpower.

0:17:18.760 --> 0:17:22.080
<v Speaker 3>At the same time, countries that were already reluctant to

0:17:22.160 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 3>strike deals with US because we just Trump just renegotiated

0:17:28.400 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 3>US MCA with Canada and Mexico just a couple of years.

0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:34.360
<v Speaker 2>Ago, right, and then just already tearing it up and.

0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:37.280
<v Speaker 3>Completely abrogates it. The United States cuts an around deal,

0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.399
<v Speaker 3>they abrogate it, then they're talking about going back into it.

0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:41.960
<v Speaker 3>Like so the idea.

0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:45.320
<v Speaker 2>Ties into Israel and Moss as well, Yeah, make some

0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.040
<v Speaker 2>you know, claims with a mass and then totally turns around,

0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:49.520
<v Speaker 2>does something different when they talk to Israel.

0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.760
<v Speaker 3>So the courts are like the seventieth wild card thrown

0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:55.919
<v Speaker 3>into a deal with the United States, which is just

0:17:56.040 --> 0:17:59.640
<v Speaker 3>becoming like a completely arbitrary and capricious country, and other

0:17:59.680 --> 0:18:04.119
<v Speaker 3>countries are trying to move move away from it, you know,

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:08.399
<v Speaker 3>just real quickly on the Yeah, my take on the founders,

0:18:08.440 --> 0:18:11.480
<v Speaker 3>it's like they never really even thought of the president

0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:13.720
<v Speaker 3>as making policy at all, Like that was supposed to

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.520
<v Speaker 3>come from Congress, and tariffs for the first hundred plus

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 3>years of the US were a were major policy. It's

0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:26.760
<v Speaker 3>like where huge portions of our federal revenue came from

0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:30.919
<v Speaker 3>once we once we kicked in an income tax, and

0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:33.600
<v Speaker 3>we had a federal reserve, like the economy and the

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:37.639
<v Speaker 3>and the treasury were run, you know, with tariffs as

0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:39.560
<v Speaker 3>a real kind of side show. And so that's why

0:18:40.160 --> 0:18:43.159
<v Speaker 3>Congress then delegated, you know, the kind of moving of

0:18:43.160 --> 0:18:45.920
<v Speaker 3>the dial to the executive because the policy was already

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:49.200
<v Speaker 3>set in place. What Trump's doing is a brand new policy.

0:18:49.720 --> 0:18:55.000
<v Speaker 3>It's like, it's like bringing tariffs back to a central

0:18:55.040 --> 0:18:57.879
<v Speaker 3>place in our economic policy making like they were in

0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:03.120
<v Speaker 3>the nineteenth century, and that you can't do unless Congress

0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.480
<v Speaker 3>allows you to do it, would be the argument. It's

0:19:05.480 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 3>just all power though, So.

0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, that's right. I wanted to highlight this just

0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:12.959
<v Speaker 2>to kind of put it on all of our radar.

0:19:13.480 --> 0:19:16.399
<v Speaker 2>Arnot Bertrand was highlighting these deals that are being struck

0:19:16.440 --> 0:19:19.040
<v Speaker 2>outside of the US to your point, Ryan about how

0:19:19.080 --> 0:19:20.800
<v Speaker 2>we're just like this rogue nation at this point and

0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:23.480
<v Speaker 2>every other country is just figuring out how to adapt.

0:19:23.960 --> 0:19:26.919
<v Speaker 2>And he says, this is bizarrely received almost zero coverage

0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.760
<v Speaker 2>in Western media, but it is actually massive deal. China,

0:19:29.840 --> 0:19:32.800
<v Speaker 2>the countries of Southeast Asia, assion and the Arab States.

0:19:32.840 --> 0:19:35.600
<v Speaker 2>GCC just held a summit in Kuala Lumpur to forge

0:19:35.600 --> 0:19:38.800
<v Speaker 2>what could become the world's largest economic block, covering everything

0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:42.840
<v Speaker 2>from free trade agreements and dedollarrization to Belton Road connectivity. Together,

0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:45.440
<v Speaker 2>these countries have over two billion people, thirty percent of

0:19:45.480 --> 0:19:47.800
<v Speaker 2>the world's GDP, and crucially about fifty five percent of

0:19:47.800 --> 0:19:52.840
<v Speaker 2>world GDP growth in PPP terms. Here's their joint statement.

0:19:52.880 --> 0:19:56.399
<v Speaker 2>They agree to massively develop free trade bypass the dollar.

0:19:56.600 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 2>That's an important one. Belton Road expansion, develop across region

0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:04.719
<v Speaker 2>digital economy framework including an AI and energy markets coordination.

0:20:05.160 --> 0:20:07.119
<v Speaker 2>So one more sign that the rest of the world

0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:11.879
<v Speaker 2>is trying to adapt to you know, the US ye

0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:13.280
<v Speaker 2>rogue actions.

0:20:13.640 --> 0:20:15.000
<v Speaker 3>And like I would saying maybe this is a good

0:20:15.040 --> 0:20:18.840
<v Speaker 3>thing for everybody. It in a world where the US

0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:23.520
<v Speaker 3>is still the loan superpower and also sees the rapid

0:20:23.600 --> 0:20:27.280
<v Speaker 3>development of AI, Like we know how that world ends,

0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.960
<v Speaker 3>like with a like just plutocracy of like a few

0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:36.680
<v Speaker 3>trillionaires controlling everything. That's yeah, that like i'd love to

0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:39.439
<v Speaker 3>say that DSA and and the remnants of Bernie are

0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:42.400
<v Speaker 3>going to like put the brakes on that I don't.

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:44.520
<v Speaker 3>I don't see it happening. And so it has to

0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:48.800
<v Speaker 3>be the US like committing suicide and handing over power

0:20:49.280 --> 0:20:52.200
<v Speaker 3>to these other countries who who at least they might

0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:57.600
<v Speaker 3>have a better shot at making a slightly more egalitarian

0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:00.440
<v Speaker 3>world out of this, out of on the other side

0:21:00.480 --> 0:21:02.560
<v Speaker 3>of this, whatever this AI development is.

0:21:03.080 --> 0:21:06.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we need to have Janis fair Faucus back on

0:21:07.160 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 2>because he also is tracking both, you know, the de

0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:13.360
<v Speaker 2>dollarization that ties into this, the deals that are being

0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.560
<v Speaker 2>struck here that Arno is high landing along with the

0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:21.280
<v Speaker 2>US's embrace of quote unquote stable coins, and so he

0:21:21.400 --> 0:21:25.160
<v Speaker 2>sees a world in which you have two competing monetary systems.

0:21:25.640 --> 0:21:28.119
<v Speaker 2>One that is sort of more you know, traditionally im

0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:31.960
<v Speaker 2>backed by governmental central banks like public you know, currencies

0:21:33.000 --> 0:21:35.879
<v Speaker 2>that would be emblematic of like the bricks arrangements and

0:21:35.920 --> 0:21:39.600
<v Speaker 2>what's happening with Asian and China and the Arab nations.

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:44.719
<v Speaker 2>And then one that is this private digital currency, you know,

0:21:44.920 --> 0:21:48.240
<v Speaker 2>and with the quote unquote Genius Act and these stable

0:21:48.280 --> 0:21:51.080
<v Speaker 2>coins which are not stable. Actually, then the trick the

0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:52.960
<v Speaker 2>dollar as the alternative.

0:21:53.320 --> 0:21:56.000
<v Speaker 3>The trick there if people aren't connecting the dots, is

0:21:56.560 --> 0:21:59.080
<v Speaker 3>it buys you say, another ten or twenty years of

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:02.480
<v Speaker 3>being able to kind of float endless amounts of treasuries

0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:07.119
<v Speaker 3>into into circulation because that the bitcoin people, the crypto people,

0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:11.560
<v Speaker 3>will have to buy the treasuries as the collateral for

0:22:11.640 --> 0:22:15.359
<v Speaker 3>their stable coin. So it's it's basically a way to

0:22:15.640 --> 0:22:17.560
<v Speaker 3>it's it's a it's kind of a pump and dump

0:22:17.920 --> 0:22:19.840
<v Speaker 3>for like the entire United States.

0:22:20.119 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 2>That's cool. Yeah, that sounds like it's going to work

0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:23.440
<v Speaker 2>out really great.

0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:25.600
<v Speaker 3>It'll be good for ten or twenty years and that

0:22:25.600 --> 0:22:29.000
<v Speaker 3>that's that that's longer term thinking than our economic planners

0:22:29.000 --> 0:22:32.040
<v Speaker 3>are usually getting into. So let's give them at least

0:22:32.040 --> 0:22:32.600
<v Speaker 3>credit for that.

0:22:32.920 --> 0:22:33.120
<v Speaker 5>Yeah.

0:22:33.119 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 2>I mean, you know, Trump and the other gerontocracy people

0:22:37.320 --> 0:22:39.320
<v Speaker 2>will be dead I guess by the time it collapses,

0:22:39.359 --> 0:22:40.080
<v Speaker 2>So what do they care.

0:22:40.440 --> 0:22:42.520
<v Speaker 6>Yes, this was a good piece from from you honest

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:46.480
<v Speaker 6>that people should check out that he wrote on this recently.

0:22:46.520 --> 0:22:49.159
<v Speaker 4>We should definitely have it. Just closed it.

0:22:49.280 --> 0:22:52.119
<v Speaker 6>Sorry, it was called Trump wants a big tech to

0:22:52.160 --> 0:22:52.800
<v Speaker 6>own the dollar.

0:22:53.960 --> 0:22:54.840
<v Speaker 4>It was really perfect.

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:57.200
<v Speaker 3>Yep, that sounds right.

0:22:57.520 --> 0:23:00.680
<v Speaker 2>One more one more piece on this, again highlighted by

0:23:00.800 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 2>r no So Marco Ruby announce they're going to start

0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:06.359
<v Speaker 2>revoking visas of Chinese students, including those with connections the

0:23:06.640 --> 0:23:10.199
<v Speaker 2>Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields any place

0:23:10.240 --> 0:23:13.359
<v Speaker 2>as rip American AI industry. According to recent study by

0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:15.640
<v Speaker 2>the Paulson Institute, thirty eight percent of the top tier

0:23:15.760 --> 0:23:17.760
<v Speaker 2>AI talent work in the US are Chinese, more than

0:23:17.800 --> 0:23:22.400
<v Speaker 2>Americans themselves. So again, I guess right, that's for those

0:23:22.680 --> 0:23:25.880
<v Speaker 2>they were very concerned by a development. We should be like, yeah,

0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:27.200
<v Speaker 2>I guess good work.

0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:28.600
<v Speaker 3>Crazy times.

0:23:29.560 --> 0:23:32.879
<v Speaker 4>This is Trump's real plan. We didn't even see it coming.

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:35.760
<v Speaker 4>This is the five D chess. Be right, I see

0:23:35.800 --> 0:23:38.560
<v Speaker 4>it coming. This is all a plan to topple.

0:23:38.680 --> 0:23:43.600
<v Speaker 6>The Empire's ability to thrust us into AI, into the

0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:45.000
<v Speaker 6>dystopia of AI.

0:23:45.480 --> 0:23:46.679
<v Speaker 4>So well done, mister president.

0:23:49.920 --> 0:23:52.360
<v Speaker 2>It is it is wild. It is wild to see

0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:55.880
<v Speaker 2>the very obvious consequences of these actions. In any case,

0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:58.080
<v Speaker 2>anything else there, guys, Are you ready to move on

0:23:58.160 --> 0:23:58.600
<v Speaker 2>to Israel?

0:24:00.640 --> 0:24:00.880
<v Speaker 5>Yep?

0:24:02.680 --> 0:24:06.640
<v Speaker 2>So, Ryan, you guys have been doing the best reporting

0:24:07.000 --> 0:24:10.600
<v Speaker 2>on what is going on with the ceasefire deal negotiations.

0:24:10.680 --> 0:24:14.960
<v Speaker 2>So I'll pull up here the framework, the text that

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:17.960
<v Speaker 2>you guys published of the term sheet delivered to Hamas

0:24:18.119 --> 0:24:21.000
<v Speaker 2>by Steve Whitcoff, and you can talk us through some

0:24:21.080 --> 0:24:24.160
<v Speaker 2>of the details here and also the larger context Yeah.

0:24:24.240 --> 0:24:31.000
<v Speaker 3>So the original deal understanding, as Hamas kind of described it,

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:38.040
<v Speaker 3>that Jeremy reported on last week into early this week,

0:24:38.720 --> 0:24:43.119
<v Speaker 3>was that there would be a sixty day ceasefire. The

0:24:43.520 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 3>Israeli forces would withdraw to their March second positions. There

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:52.640
<v Speaker 3>would be five captaves released on day one and then

0:24:52.760 --> 0:24:56.240
<v Speaker 3>five hostages released on day sixty And the idea there

0:24:57.000 --> 0:25:02.200
<v Speaker 3>was that breaking them in half and spreading them out

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:05.320
<v Speaker 3>forces Israel to abide by the ceasefire for that entire

0:25:05.440 --> 0:25:08.720
<v Speaker 3>sixty days, and during that sixty days, the US would

0:25:08.760 --> 0:25:13.919
<v Speaker 3>guarantee the stability of the ceasefire and would pressure Israel

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:18.640
<v Speaker 3>to negotiate towards a long term truce that the war

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 3>would not start up again on day sixty one. The

0:25:21.840 --> 0:25:26.400
<v Speaker 3>new agreement. Oh, and how that unfolded. Jeremy was able

0:25:26.440 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 3>to get the details of this and publish that there

0:25:28.160 --> 0:25:34.879
<v Speaker 3>was an understanding between Hamas and Witkough that the Israel

0:25:34.920 --> 0:25:37.920
<v Speaker 3>immediately comes out and they don't want to do this.

0:25:38.000 --> 0:25:39.280
<v Speaker 3>They don't, they say they don't want to do this.

0:25:39.600 --> 0:25:43.640
<v Speaker 3>Witkoff then calls Axios Barack Revide and says, I'm really

0:25:43.680 --> 0:25:47.840
<v Speaker 3>disappointed in Hamas's reaction to this, and so blaming Hamas,

0:25:47.880 --> 0:25:51.639
<v Speaker 3>even though Hamas had had accepted the terms. So then

0:25:51.640 --> 0:25:53.920
<v Speaker 3>Wikoff goes back and he's like, okay, what can I

0:25:54.640 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 3>what can I tweak in this to get Israel on board,

0:25:56.960 --> 0:26:00.359
<v Speaker 3>which again tells you that Jeremy's reporting was correct because

0:26:00.560 --> 0:26:03.080
<v Speaker 3>the deal would not have gotten more favorable to Israel

0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:07.000
<v Speaker 3>if the original one was okay with Israel but not

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 3>okay with Hamas. So now they have a new deal

0:26:11.119 --> 0:26:14.920
<v Speaker 3>which instead of the five, the second half of the captives,

0:26:14.960 --> 0:26:20.959
<v Speaker 3>and they're believed to be twenty living captives remaining in Gaza,

0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.480
<v Speaker 3>so the five, instead of being released on day sixty,

0:26:24.520 --> 0:26:29.680
<v Speaker 3>would be released on day seven. And the language around Israel,

0:26:29.760 --> 0:26:32.000
<v Speaker 3>kind of withdrawing back to March second, is much vaguer,

0:26:32.680 --> 0:26:39.200
<v Speaker 3>and the language about a long term truce is is vague,

0:26:39.960 --> 0:26:45.920
<v Speaker 3>giving Israel the ability to restart the war. Net Yahoo

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:50.600
<v Speaker 3>met yesterday with hostage families, and audio of it immediately leaked,

0:26:50.920 --> 0:26:55.480
<v Speaker 3>which people in Israel, reporters in Israel were speculating or

0:26:55.600 --> 0:26:58.639
<v Speaker 3>and just guessing like that this was a deliberate Net

0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:03.080
<v Speaker 3>and Yahoo leak. So in his conversation with the hostage families,

0:27:03.160 --> 0:27:05.920
<v Speaker 3>he was telling them we're going we're going to restart

0:27:05.960 --> 0:27:09.600
<v Speaker 3>the war like it's happening, like I'm sorry, like and

0:27:10.040 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 3>we hope we get the rest of the living captives out,

0:27:13.720 --> 0:27:17.120
<v Speaker 3>but we'll see and just letting you know, we're going

0:27:17.200 --> 0:27:17.960
<v Speaker 3>to break this deal.

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:18.680
<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

0:27:18.960 --> 0:27:21.360
<v Speaker 3>And the thinking of Amir ta Bona, a r's columnists

0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:26.040
<v Speaker 3>who's been on our show. His analysis is that Yahoo

0:27:27.119 --> 0:27:29.920
<v Speaker 3>is push is put that out to pressure Hamas to

0:27:30.040 --> 0:27:33.600
<v Speaker 3>reject the deal. Like his preference is that Hamas reject

0:27:33.640 --> 0:27:36.439
<v Speaker 3>the deal rather than accept it, and then nen Yaho

0:27:36.480 --> 0:27:39.399
<v Speaker 3>has to break it because even though he's willing to

0:27:39.480 --> 0:27:43.040
<v Speaker 3>break it, it comes with a political cost, like the

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:45.800
<v Speaker 3>world has completely lost its patience with nen Yahu and

0:27:45.880 --> 0:27:49.080
<v Speaker 3>his genocide. It's like Europe is, you know, it's twenty

0:27:49.119 --> 0:27:53.200
<v Speaker 3>percent of its trade. Even Germany is telling Israel that

0:27:53.359 --> 0:27:55.800
<v Speaker 3>that this is that this has gone too far. So

0:27:55.920 --> 0:27:59.680
<v Speaker 3>on the one hand, you could imagine why Hamas is

0:27:59.720 --> 0:28:01.880
<v Speaker 3>still debating this internally. You can imagine why they would

0:28:01.920 --> 0:28:07.159
<v Speaker 3>reject this deal because it may be seven days of

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:10.120
<v Speaker 3>a ceasefire, right and then right back to where they were.

0:28:10.640 --> 0:28:10.760
<v Speaker 6>Right.

0:28:11.200 --> 0:28:12.680
<v Speaker 3>On the other hand, you can imagine why they would

0:28:12.680 --> 0:28:16.480
<v Speaker 3>accept it because if Netton, now, who wants them to

0:28:16.720 --> 0:28:20.320
<v Speaker 3>reject it. You could think, okay, whatever net Ya, who

0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:22.960
<v Speaker 3>wants us to do like, we should do the opposite,

0:28:23.960 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 3>uh and and and it would further isolate Israel internationally

0:28:29.760 --> 0:28:35.160
<v Speaker 3>if they once again broke another ceasefire. And so the question,

0:28:35.600 --> 0:28:39.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, for Hamas is is you know, what is

0:28:39.320 --> 0:28:41.360
<v Speaker 3>what is a seven day or a sixty day seasefire

0:28:41.400 --> 0:28:45.240
<v Speaker 3>worth to them? If they and if they're because there

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:48.520
<v Speaker 3>as they say their their remaining leverage is is there

0:28:49.720 --> 0:28:51.560
<v Speaker 3>the twenty hostages that they hold if that's down to

0:28:51.640 --> 0:28:56.720
<v Speaker 3>ten and increasingly maybe shrinking, as as Israel's relentless bombing campaign,

0:28:58.160 --> 0:29:00.960
<v Speaker 3>you know, puts the puts their lives at risk on

0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:05.200
<v Speaker 3>a on a minute by minute basis. So there was

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:08.200
<v Speaker 3>a lot of hope in Gaza. You saw people, you know,

0:29:09.280 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 3>almost like pre celebrating the possibility. This was just such

0:29:13.600 --> 0:29:16.440
<v Speaker 3>a just a poignant and painful thing to see because

0:29:16.600 --> 0:29:20.120
<v Speaker 3>the the expressions of joy our reflection of the depth

0:29:20.160 --> 0:29:20.600
<v Speaker 3>of the pain.

0:29:21.120 --> 0:29:21.239
<v Speaker 5>Right.

0:29:21.920 --> 0:29:25.640
<v Speaker 3>But there's what we don't know yet how this will go.

0:29:29.120 --> 0:29:31.880
<v Speaker 3>And it's to me it's pretty hard to hard to predict.

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:37.280
<v Speaker 2>Ryan, what do you make of like what can we

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:41.640
<v Speaker 2>read into wit Coough and the Trump administration's role here

0:29:42.040 --> 0:29:46.200
<v Speaker 2>and their preferences, because I mean, you know, as we

0:29:46.280 --> 0:29:48.480
<v Speaker 2>sort through all these details, which are really important, at

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:51.840
<v Speaker 2>the end of the day, the you know, probably the

0:29:51.960 --> 0:29:54.920
<v Speaker 2>critical factor is what the Trump administration is willing to

0:29:55.040 --> 0:29:57.520
<v Speaker 2>do to compel BB two end the war.

0:29:58.000 --> 0:29:59.440
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, and it doesn't seem like they're willing to do

0:29:59.560 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 3>much because if they had just if they had just

0:30:03.320 --> 0:30:07.840
<v Speaker 3>kept the arrangement something similar to all right, five on

0:30:08.040 --> 0:30:12.000
<v Speaker 3>day one and five on day sixty and net Yahoo

0:30:12.080 --> 0:30:14.800
<v Speaker 3>is publicly saying, screw you, I'm going to restart the

0:30:14.880 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 3>war as soon as I can. At least at least

0:30:18.160 --> 0:30:22.080
<v Speaker 3>you're then forcing ams to ask the question of is

0:30:22.160 --> 0:30:25.680
<v Speaker 3>a sixty day cease fire and a flood of aid

0:30:27.080 --> 0:30:31.360
<v Speaker 3>worth it to this population that is being pushed into

0:30:31.440 --> 0:30:38.560
<v Speaker 3>total anarchy like at this point, whereas when you say,

0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:41.600
<v Speaker 3>is seven days worth it, it's like, well, you know,

0:30:41.640 --> 0:30:43.720
<v Speaker 3>they might not even let much. They'll barely let any

0:30:43.760 --> 0:30:45.720
<v Speaker 3>aid in for seven days and then start bombing again.

0:30:45.920 --> 0:30:49.440
<v Speaker 3>So Okay, they agreed to sixty but like they're being

0:30:49.600 --> 0:30:54.080
<v Speaker 3>very public in their in their you know, confidence that

0:30:54.160 --> 0:30:57.400
<v Speaker 3>they don't have to abide by it. So yeah, without

0:30:59.440 --> 0:31:03.120
<v Speaker 3>you know, without without witcough pushing it for slightly longer.

0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:05.960
<v Speaker 3>It does suggest that they're not willing to do that much.

0:31:07.840 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 6>It's interesting that from let's just say, from Netanyahu's perspective,

0:31:13.200 --> 0:31:15.280
<v Speaker 6>he probably feels like he is on the presspoe of

0:31:15.320 --> 0:31:19.960
<v Speaker 6>a generational opportunity for like Mara Gaza.

0:31:21.280 --> 0:31:21.600
<v Speaker 3>Totally.

0:31:22.360 --> 0:31:25.720
<v Speaker 4>But then also the flip side of that is a.

0:31:27.320 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 6>The alternative is the reconstitution of Hamas with any type

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:34.560
<v Speaker 6>of again, from his perspective, any type of ceasefire. So

0:31:34.640 --> 0:31:37.480
<v Speaker 6>he thinks that he's on He's walking this like very

0:31:37.600 --> 0:31:42.880
<v Speaker 6>very fine line between getting exactly the like fantasy scenario

0:31:43.400 --> 0:31:47.640
<v Speaker 6>from the Israeli far rights perspective, or losing it and

0:31:48.280 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 6>having Trump and the United States go into a future

0:31:51.880 --> 0:31:57.120
<v Speaker 6>that is much more skeptical of Israel and has a

0:31:57.240 --> 0:31:59.880
<v Speaker 6>much more skeptical alliance with this.

0:32:00.960 --> 0:32:02.640
<v Speaker 4>And I guess it's sort of.

0:32:02.760 --> 0:32:07.960
<v Speaker 6>Like they they feel like they're on a tight rope

0:32:09.080 --> 0:32:11.280
<v Speaker 6>and I don't know, I mean, I don't think they

0:32:11.360 --> 0:32:15.240
<v Speaker 6>realized that the more skepticism of the alliance future is

0:32:15.480 --> 0:32:16.360
<v Speaker 6>kind of already here.

0:32:16.920 --> 0:32:19.520
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot to that,

0:32:19.720 --> 0:32:21.840
<v Speaker 2>and I think this ties into it as well. They're

0:32:22.320 --> 0:32:27.960
<v Speaker 2>you know, rapidly moving to enable the additional expansion, major

0:32:28.040 --> 0:32:31.880
<v Speaker 2>expansion of settlements in the occupied West Bank. You know,

0:32:32.000 --> 0:32:35.800
<v Speaker 2>they're worried that there will be international, real international pressure

0:32:36.080 --> 0:32:39.480
<v Speaker 2>for some sort of a you know, Palestinian state to

0:32:39.560 --> 0:32:41.680
<v Speaker 2>be recognized in some sort of a two state solution

0:32:41.800 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 2>to be forced upon them. And so and look like

0:32:45.120 --> 0:32:46.920
<v Speaker 2>BB grew up in the United States, I mean, these

0:32:46.960 --> 0:32:50.560
<v Speaker 2>are people deeply understand American politics. They probably understand it

0:32:50.640 --> 0:32:53.640
<v Speaker 2>better than almost anyone, to be honest with you, and

0:32:53.800 --> 0:32:55.800
<v Speaker 2>where the pressure points are and how to get their

0:32:55.840 --> 0:32:57.880
<v Speaker 2>way and when the clock's ticking and when it's not.

0:32:58.640 --> 0:33:00.720
<v Speaker 2>And so look, they can rit a poll as well

0:33:00.760 --> 0:33:04.480
<v Speaker 2>as anyone else. And see the way that first of all,

0:33:04.640 --> 0:33:11.320
<v Speaker 2>the privilege that they enjoyed of having lockstep unified bipartisan support,

0:33:11.960 --> 0:33:13.760
<v Speaker 2>it is going to come to an end, Like you

0:33:13.880 --> 0:33:16.960
<v Speaker 2>cannot sustain a situation where the base of one party,

0:33:17.000 --> 0:33:20.480
<v Speaker 2>the Democratic Party, is so dramatically at odds with the

0:33:21.320 --> 0:33:23.840
<v Speaker 2>elected leadership of that party. And that's going to come

0:33:23.880 --> 0:33:25.080
<v Speaker 2>to it. I think is going to come to a

0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:26.920
<v Speaker 2>head quickly in twenty twenty eight. I think this will

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.320
<v Speaker 2>be a litmus test and that you will not get

0:33:29.360 --> 0:33:32.400
<v Speaker 2>through a Democratic primary without having a very different position

0:33:32.520 --> 0:33:35.360
<v Speaker 2>on Israel than you know, Joe Biden and every other

0:33:35.440 --> 0:33:40.440
<v Speaker 2>Democratic president has had in modern American history. So they

0:33:40.560 --> 0:33:43.960
<v Speaker 2>know that that bipartisan consensus is going away. And even

0:33:44.000 --> 0:33:47.400
<v Speaker 2>within the Republican Party, you know, older Republicans still have

0:33:47.800 --> 0:33:52.320
<v Speaker 2>very positive views of Israel. Younger Republicans do not. So,

0:33:53.280 --> 0:33:55.600
<v Speaker 2>you know, Ryan, how much of the actions that are

0:33:55.640 --> 0:33:59.880
<v Speaker 2>being taken now, you know, the attempt to actually consolidate

0:34:00.080 --> 0:34:03.960
<v Speaker 2>some sort of like wild Greater Israel project, the dramatic

0:34:04.040 --> 0:34:08.000
<v Speaker 2>expansion and the dramatic escalation and oppression and violence in

0:34:08.080 --> 0:34:11.400
<v Speaker 2>the West Bank, obviously, the attempt to do the final

0:34:11.440 --> 0:34:14.360
<v Speaker 2>solution in Gaza. How much of this is a realization

0:34:14.520 --> 0:34:16.479
<v Speaker 2>of like, this is our moment, and if we don't

0:34:16.560 --> 0:34:20.600
<v Speaker 2>go for everything right now, the landscape is going to

0:34:20.600 --> 0:34:21.760
<v Speaker 2>be different for us in the future.

0:34:22.680 --> 0:34:26.600
<v Speaker 3>Yeah. And I think there's almost a break from reality

0:34:26.840 --> 0:34:30.040
<v Speaker 3>among the political class and a lot of the population

0:34:30.760 --> 0:34:35.120
<v Speaker 3>in that there's a real impulse now of Israeli saying

0:34:35.520 --> 0:34:37.640
<v Speaker 3>we don't need the world. The world has abandoned us,

0:34:39.760 --> 0:34:41.600
<v Speaker 3>And it's a break with reality in the sense that

0:34:42.400 --> 0:34:47.000
<v Speaker 3>for twenty months, the entire world Western world has financed

0:34:47.040 --> 0:34:52.960
<v Speaker 3>and armed their war against this small militia in Gaza

0:34:54.840 --> 0:34:58.560
<v Speaker 3>endlessly like an unlimited capacity in a way that no

0:34:58.719 --> 0:35:03.520
<v Speaker 3>other small country has gotten. Yet they feel like the

0:35:03.600 --> 0:35:06.359
<v Speaker 3>world has abandoned them, that the world has turned against them,

0:35:07.160 --> 0:35:09.440
<v Speaker 3>and so their response to that is, we don't need

0:35:09.480 --> 0:35:12.160
<v Speaker 3>the world. We have a we have this startup nation.

0:35:12.360 --> 0:35:14.839
<v Speaker 3>We've got all these this high tech firms. We make

0:35:14.880 --> 0:35:17.880
<v Speaker 3>a lot of they do make like a non trivial

0:35:17.920 --> 0:35:19.640
<v Speaker 3>amount of their own weapons, like they have their own,

0:35:19.920 --> 0:35:23.200
<v Speaker 3>you know, weapons manufacturing capacity. So they're like, we don't

0:35:23.239 --> 0:35:26.400
<v Speaker 3>need the we don't need the world. We're going to

0:35:26.440 --> 0:35:30.440
<v Speaker 3>go it alone. There are some who are like, we're

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:33.879
<v Speaker 3>just a couple of million people here and we don't

0:35:33.880 --> 0:35:36.520
<v Speaker 3>ever we don't want to like never leave. And also

0:35:36.719 --> 0:35:40.440
<v Speaker 3>like a dependent on international trade. We're dependent on all

0:35:40.480 --> 0:35:43.479
<v Speaker 3>the favorable terms that we get from the from the US.

0:35:44.960 --> 0:35:48.920
<v Speaker 3>We don't have just the demography to keep up endless

0:35:48.960 --> 0:35:52.200
<v Speaker 3>wars on the north and the northeast and the and

0:35:52.280 --> 0:35:55.920
<v Speaker 3>the south. Like, yeah, there were numbers coming out something

0:35:56.000 --> 0:36:00.359
<v Speaker 3>like seventeen thousand wounded, and then they're talking about tens

0:36:00.360 --> 0:36:06.880
<v Speaker 3>of thousands more with debilitating PTSD. They're recruiting people suffering

0:36:07.000 --> 0:36:11.080
<v Speaker 3>from PTSD back into Gaza, like back into service.

0:36:12.280 --> 0:36:15.680
<v Speaker 2>Well, and they have major long term demographic issues because.

0:36:15.480 --> 0:36:17.520
<v Speaker 3>The Palestinians made up a lot of their labor force.

0:36:17.960 --> 0:36:19.520
<v Speaker 2>That's true too, Yeah, people.

0:36:19.280 --> 0:36:24.640
<v Speaker 3>And you know things like the economy is struggling and

0:36:24.800 --> 0:36:27.759
<v Speaker 3>so people, you know, people can't who can leave or leave,

0:36:27.840 --> 0:36:31.279
<v Speaker 3>Like a lot of them have American passports, European passports

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:32.960
<v Speaker 3>and so can can leave.

0:36:33.400 --> 0:36:36.160
<v Speaker 2>And the ultra Orthodox don't want to work, serve in

0:36:36.160 --> 0:36:36.680
<v Speaker 2>the military.

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:38.239
<v Speaker 3>They don't want to work either.

0:36:38.880 --> 0:36:40.640
<v Speaker 2>They have a lot of kids, but they don't want

0:36:40.680 --> 0:36:41.520
<v Speaker 2>to do anything.

0:36:41.719 --> 0:36:45.360
<v Speaker 3>So yeah, it's going to be just them and the

0:36:45.400 --> 0:36:49.680
<v Speaker 3>Palestinians that stay behind. It's like or who who survive.

0:36:50.640 --> 0:36:55.160
<v Speaker 3>It's so the idea of where they're going to take

0:36:55.200 --> 0:36:59.319
<v Speaker 3>this to this like Greater Israel accomplished through endless war

0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:02.719
<v Speaker 3>and the reality of their demography and their economic base

0:37:04.840 --> 0:37:06.919
<v Speaker 3>are very far apart right now, and I think kept

0:37:06.960 --> 0:37:08.319
<v Speaker 3>alive by war.

0:37:08.400 --> 0:37:12.440
<v Speaker 6>Fever, when think of how that's influencing the donor class

0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:17.520
<v Speaker 6>that influences the Trump administration, actually politicians on both sides

0:37:17.520 --> 0:37:19.400
<v Speaker 6>of the aisle. But since they have the keys of

0:37:19.400 --> 0:37:23.520
<v Speaker 6>the car right now, the Trump administration that I don't

0:37:23.520 --> 0:37:26.080
<v Speaker 6>want to say paranoia, because I'm not that would imply

0:37:26.239 --> 0:37:32.080
<v Speaker 6>that it's irrational or unfounded, but that almost desperation you

0:37:32.200 --> 0:37:36.560
<v Speaker 6>can sort of sense it, I think, being pushed to

0:37:37.000 --> 0:37:40.239
<v Speaker 6>the politicians as they're hearing from people who they've taken

0:37:40.480 --> 0:37:42.239
<v Speaker 6>a lot of money from and have seen as great

0:37:42.400 --> 0:37:44.279
<v Speaker 6>allies for a long time. It's sort of been like

0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:47.400
<v Speaker 6>the Republicans, its just sort of been natural and a

0:37:47.600 --> 0:37:51.759
<v Speaker 6>very unquestioned alliance and like a marriage. Really.

0:37:52.239 --> 0:37:55.640
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, And meanwhile, they Notna government announced twenty two new

0:37:55.680 --> 0:37:59.640
<v Speaker 3>settlements in the West Bank yesterday, which the government explicitly

0:37:59.719 --> 0:38:03.120
<v Speaker 3>said the purpose of which was to prevent and make

0:38:03.160 --> 0:38:05.719
<v Speaker 3>impossible the formation of a Palestinian state in the in

0:38:05.800 --> 0:38:08.200
<v Speaker 3>the West Bank. Like they're just saying this out loud. Yeah,

0:38:09.160 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 3>you know, so the one the path they're choosing that

0:38:11.760 --> 0:38:14.440
<v Speaker 3>they want to they they are desperately hoping to go down,

0:38:14.520 --> 0:38:17.640
<v Speaker 3>is this and this one of endless war when you know,

0:38:17.719 --> 0:38:21.719
<v Speaker 3>the world really, despite their paranoia, does not have any

0:38:21.760 --> 0:38:27.200
<v Speaker 3>sympathy for Palestinians. And if Israel today said we accept

0:38:27.239 --> 0:38:32.040
<v Speaker 3>this term and we accept Hamas's long term truce in Gaza,

0:38:32.840 --> 0:38:38.360
<v Speaker 3>and we accept a technocratic government to run Gaza with

0:38:38.480 --> 0:38:42.520
<v Speaker 3>the support of the you know, Gulf countries, and then

0:38:42.600 --> 0:38:45.200
<v Speaker 3>let Ireland and Spain and some others like recognize that

0:38:45.320 --> 0:38:48.759
<v Speaker 3>little rump as as a Palestinian state and they just

0:38:48.800 --> 0:38:53.440
<v Speaker 3>stopped bombing and starving the Palestinians. The world would be like,

0:38:53.520 --> 0:38:57.000
<v Speaker 3>that's fine, Like, well, we're good, that's that's good enough.

0:38:57.840 --> 0:39:00.279
<v Speaker 3>When it from a perspective of global justice, it would

0:39:00.320 --> 0:39:02.480
<v Speaker 3>not remotely be good enough, but the world would be

0:39:02.520 --> 0:39:05.560
<v Speaker 3>fine with that. The world would just like Israel to stop,

0:39:06.239 --> 0:39:08.480
<v Speaker 3>you know, humiliating the West when it comes to its

0:39:08.560 --> 0:39:13.080
<v Speaker 3>hypocritic values but doesn't really have much concern for the

0:39:13.200 --> 0:39:14.480
<v Speaker 3>actual Palestinian people.

0:39:14.920 --> 0:39:17.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I think that's very apparent. But and to Emily's

0:39:17.719 --> 0:39:21.400
<v Speaker 2>point about the you know, increasing desperation here in the

0:39:21.520 --> 0:39:24.400
<v Speaker 2>US include in particular, we have this new announcement for

0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:27.080
<v Speaker 2>Marco Rubio saying the US is implement vigorous new vies

0:39:27.120 --> 0:39:30.120
<v Speaker 2>of policy to prevent foreign nationals with anti Israel views

0:39:30.120 --> 0:39:31.640
<v Speaker 2>from traveling in the US. This is the job that

0:39:31.719 --> 0:39:35.879
<v Speaker 2>Laura Lumer is auditioning for. And at the same time,

0:39:35.960 --> 0:39:39.840
<v Speaker 2>you know, even given the cost of pro Palestinian protests

0:39:39.880 --> 0:39:44.120
<v Speaker 2>at this point, you had a large You've continued to

0:39:44.160 --> 0:39:47.400
<v Speaker 2>have large protests at graduation ceremonies, in particular, this was

0:39:48.160 --> 0:39:50.080
<v Speaker 2>you had one at Hunter College. I can pull this

0:39:50.239 --> 0:39:53.799
<v Speaker 2>up drop site again shared this rely on you guys

0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:56.759
<v Speaker 2>so much. Students protesting the administration.

0:39:57.360 --> 0:39:59.360
<v Speaker 3>You know, if you listen to this tale Jane is

0:39:59.400 --> 0:40:03.400
<v Speaker 3>great Talia Otg, people should follow that one.

0:40:03.520 --> 0:40:07.600
<v Speaker 2>She's yes, absolutely absolutely, and yeah, so they you know,

0:40:07.680 --> 0:40:10.200
<v Speaker 2>this was a quite significant protest if you watch this

0:40:10.400 --> 0:40:12.839
<v Speaker 2>video and the you know the percentage of students who

0:40:12.920 --> 0:40:17.320
<v Speaker 2>were involved here, so even knowing the incredible consequences that

0:40:17.600 --> 0:40:19.120
<v Speaker 2>student have faced.

0:40:19.320 --> 0:40:23.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the MIT speaker like when you've lost Mi T

0:40:24.680 --> 0:40:28.440
<v Speaker 3>and Israel has to be watching this and and and shuddering.

0:40:29.120 --> 0:40:31.640
<v Speaker 3>These are the these are the future elites of this country,

0:40:31.880 --> 0:40:34.120
<v Speaker 3>that's right, who believe that this is there.

0:40:34.880 --> 0:40:37.359
<v Speaker 2>That's why, I mean, that's part of why there's such

0:40:37.360 --> 0:40:43.400
<v Speaker 2>a panicked authoritarian reaction is because it they can. They

0:40:43.520 --> 0:40:45.840
<v Speaker 2>don't see it as just you know, oh, these like

0:40:46.480 --> 0:40:49.080
<v Speaker 2>college kids and they don't really mean it doesn't really matter,

0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:51.480
<v Speaker 2>and this is so impotent. And you know, sometimes it

0:40:51.520 --> 0:40:54.040
<v Speaker 2>does feel impotent because it's not like it has changed

0:40:54.080 --> 0:40:56.719
<v Speaker 2>the policy. But it is again an indication that the

0:40:57.000 --> 0:40:59.320
<v Speaker 2>writing is on the wall and that even in spite

0:40:59.440 --> 0:41:04.920
<v Speaker 2>of your incredibly authoritarian, anti free speech, illegal unconstitutional crackdown,

0:41:05.680 --> 0:41:08.880
<v Speaker 2>that they're still willing to protest and speak out and

0:41:09.080 --> 0:41:10.719
<v Speaker 2>you know, stand for what they see and what I see.

0:41:10.719 --> 0:41:12.800
<v Speaker 3>And it's the most vil it's the most I r

0:41:12.880 --> 0:41:16.760
<v Speaker 3>L version of the beatings will continue until morale improves

0:41:17.360 --> 0:41:21.240
<v Speaker 3>that I've really ever seen. And the more the beatings

0:41:21.840 --> 0:41:26.960
<v Speaker 3>have continued, the worst morale has gotten. That they're willing

0:41:27.080 --> 0:41:31.720
<v Speaker 3>to continue to do push these protests in the face

0:41:31.840 --> 0:41:37.239
<v Speaker 3>of indefinite detention of protesters people, you know, the n

0:41:37.320 --> 0:41:39.880
<v Speaker 3>YU guy losing his diploma. We have a little petition

0:41:39.960 --> 0:41:42.759
<v Speaker 3>going at drop site for the n YU speaker who

0:41:42.880 --> 0:41:44.640
<v Speaker 3>they are withholding his.

0:41:44.680 --> 0:41:51.640
<v Speaker 2>Diploma degree, something very basic thirty seconds.

0:41:51.400 --> 0:41:53.520
<v Speaker 3>Of like don't don't do terrible things to.

0:41:54.080 --> 0:41:57.480
<v Speaker 2>Civilians, how dare you outrageous?

0:41:57.480 --> 0:41:59.360
<v Speaker 3>And in the face of that, to see all of

0:41:59.440 --> 0:42:03.880
<v Speaker 3>these kids still doing that, Yeah, it's like the beatings

0:42:03.880 --> 0:42:05.000
<v Speaker 3>are going to have to really increase.

0:42:05.480 --> 0:42:07.719
<v Speaker 2>Well, I also meant a lot to hear from Abu

0:42:07.800 --> 0:42:11.280
<v Speaker 2>Baker that you know, he and other Palestinians and Gaza

0:42:11.360 --> 0:42:13.680
<v Speaker 2>have been tracking those protests and found it very hardening

0:42:14.000 --> 0:42:18.040
<v Speaker 2>as well. Let's go ahead and talk a little bit. Oh,

0:42:18.080 --> 0:42:20.200
<v Speaker 2>we've got actually, we've got Dan here, So we go

0:42:20.239 --> 0:42:22.880
<v Speaker 2>ahead and talk to Dan about the polling. Then we

0:42:22.960 --> 0:42:26.120
<v Speaker 2>can we can push zoron off until until after we

0:42:26.200 --> 0:42:26.680
<v Speaker 2>talked to Dan.

0:42:26.840 --> 0:42:27.480
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, let's do that.

0:42:27.840 --> 0:42:34.560
<v Speaker 5>Okay, welcome, Hey, thanks for having.

0:42:34.360 --> 0:42:36.640
<v Speaker 2>Me, Thanks for doing it, appreciate it.

0:42:37.960 --> 0:42:38.160
<v Speaker 5>Ryan.

0:42:38.200 --> 0:42:38.960
<v Speaker 2>You want to set this up?

0:42:39.080 --> 0:42:41.960
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, let's do this. Do I do I let me

0:42:42.040 --> 0:42:46.319
<v Speaker 3>find this, let me find this Axios poll. So yeah, Dan,

0:42:46.360 --> 0:42:50.000
<v Speaker 3>Well I'm looking for this pole. So you you were

0:42:50.040 --> 0:42:54.440
<v Speaker 3>the polster basically who ran this, this viral pole that

0:42:54.600 --> 0:42:58.600
<v Speaker 3>was published first in in Axios that has caused all

0:42:58.719 --> 0:43:03.520
<v Speaker 3>sorts of uh discourse back and forth about polling, about abundance,

0:43:03.560 --> 0:43:09.160
<v Speaker 3>about populism. So just frame up for people kind of

0:43:09.200 --> 0:43:12.319
<v Speaker 3>what the question was that you wanted to get from

0:43:13.120 --> 0:43:14.840
<v Speaker 3>from voters, Like what were you trying? What were you

0:43:14.920 --> 0:43:16.880
<v Speaker 3>trying to figure out? And then I'll pull up some

0:43:17.040 --> 0:43:18.000
<v Speaker 3>of the discourse.

0:43:18.400 --> 0:43:22.000
<v Speaker 5>Yeah. So when I was approached by Demand Progress about this,

0:43:22.239 --> 0:43:23.640
<v Speaker 5>the the idea was.

0:43:23.719 --> 0:43:28.719
<v Speaker 3>To andre there are kind of populists like left right,

0:43:29.920 --> 0:43:32.200
<v Speaker 3>like more on the left, but like they work in

0:43:32.239 --> 0:43:33.319
<v Speaker 3>coalition with the right a lot.

0:43:33.760 --> 0:43:37.200
<v Speaker 5>Yep. So the idea was to just test kind of

0:43:37.280 --> 0:43:41.440
<v Speaker 5>the resonance of all of this, you know, the arguments

0:43:41.480 --> 0:43:44.719
<v Speaker 5>around abundance relative to what we look at as more

0:43:44.800 --> 0:43:49.080
<v Speaker 5>traditional populist ideas and look at, you know, in terms

0:43:49.160 --> 0:43:53.440
<v Speaker 5>of people's understanding of why there are economic struggles that

0:43:53.680 --> 0:43:56.600
<v Speaker 5>you know that working class and middle class people are

0:43:56.640 --> 0:43:59.200
<v Speaker 5>dealing with. You know, what do people think is the

0:43:59.280 --> 0:44:01.840
<v Speaker 5>cause of that? Is the cause more within the abundance

0:44:01.840 --> 0:44:05.239
<v Speaker 5>framework or the populist framework, What do people want to

0:44:05.440 --> 0:44:09.520
<v Speaker 5>hear candidates for office or president for Congress talk about,

0:44:09.719 --> 0:44:12.080
<v Speaker 5>you know, the same kind of split, and what do

0:44:12.160 --> 0:44:16.439
<v Speaker 5>people think is the best way to solve those things

0:44:16.520 --> 0:44:18.919
<v Speaker 5>and address the concerns of middle and working class people.

0:44:19.520 --> 0:44:20.520
<v Speaker 6>And we.

0:44:22.120 --> 0:44:25.400
<v Speaker 5>Put it together to just make sense of it. The

0:44:25.719 --> 0:44:29.040
<v Speaker 5>purpose was not to go public to try to prove anything.

0:44:29.560 --> 0:44:33.279
<v Speaker 5>I was skeptical from the beginning because it's not you know,

0:44:33.480 --> 0:44:38.440
<v Speaker 5>they're not usually exclusive concepts, and I you know, it's

0:44:38.560 --> 0:44:39.520
<v Speaker 5>much easy.

0:44:39.600 --> 0:44:42.200
<v Speaker 3>The ultimate goal of populism would be to have abundance

0:44:42.480 --> 0:44:45.239
<v Speaker 3>for all, right, absolutely, so I.

0:44:45.320 --> 0:44:48.200
<v Speaker 5>Was skeptical going in. But the idea we just wanted

0:44:48.239 --> 0:44:50.600
<v Speaker 5>to get a benchmark since people were arguing about it

0:44:50.680 --> 0:44:52.880
<v Speaker 5>and there didn't seem to be some good data, just

0:44:53.000 --> 0:44:56.279
<v Speaker 5>kind of placing where things fall. The interesting thing that

0:44:56.480 --> 0:45:00.600
<v Speaker 5>happened when we got the results back was over helmingly,

0:45:01.520 --> 0:45:07.359
<v Speaker 5>like across the board, the traditional populist ideas resonate far

0:45:07.600 --> 0:45:11.080
<v Speaker 5>more people's sensibilities about the cause of their economic anxiety

0:45:11.480 --> 0:45:15.160
<v Speaker 5>and challenges for working class people completely fall into a

0:45:15.239 --> 0:45:16.880
<v Speaker 5>thing where a lot of us, you know, have been

0:45:16.920 --> 0:45:19.440
<v Speaker 5>talking about a lot. Now, that doesn't mean to the

0:45:19.600 --> 0:45:23.560
<v Speaker 5>exclusion of some of the abundance ideas, and I think

0:45:23.600 --> 0:45:26.320
<v Speaker 5>it's it's important that there are places where people do

0:45:26.520 --> 0:45:32.080
<v Speaker 5>understand that there can be regulation that has unintended consequences

0:45:32.239 --> 0:45:36.959
<v Speaker 5>to hinder, you know, to artificially shift the supply curve

0:45:37.040 --> 0:45:40.960
<v Speaker 5>and cause problems there. So again they're not exclusive. But

0:45:41.120 --> 0:45:46.600
<v Speaker 5>if we're thinking about how to realign where democrats credibly

0:45:46.920 --> 0:45:50.600
<v Speaker 5>talk to the electorate to win elections and implement stuff,

0:45:51.200 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 5>there is no question that that populace framing is the

0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:58.680
<v Speaker 5>stronger way to go about it, and that can access

0:45:58.800 --> 0:45:59.360
<v Speaker 5>of abundance.

0:45:59.800 --> 0:46:01.440
<v Speaker 3>Ye give us the top lines on that and then

0:46:01.480 --> 0:46:03.920
<v Speaker 3>we'll get into some of the criticisms of it.

0:46:05.280 --> 0:46:10.239
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So the most straightforward thing that we did was

0:46:10.280 --> 0:46:14.080
<v Speaker 5>we tested. We laid out the whole framing of what

0:46:14.160 --> 0:46:17.400
<v Speaker 5>the abundance argument is, you know, based on you know,

0:46:17.600 --> 0:46:19.400
<v Speaker 5>the book and the literature, what people are saying. We

0:46:19.480 --> 0:46:22.239
<v Speaker 5>tried to be you know, really good faith capture what

0:46:22.400 --> 0:46:25.400
<v Speaker 5>it is that they're talking about, and we asked the question.

0:46:27.400 --> 0:46:30.800
<v Speaker 2>I pulled it up here at least the first sentence

0:46:30.960 --> 0:46:33.600
<v Speaker 2>of the abundance framing versus the populace framing.

0:46:33.719 --> 0:46:38.400
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, great. So overall, we asked if a candidate for

0:46:38.480 --> 0:46:41.000
<v Speaker 5>Congress or president made that abundance argument, would that make

0:46:41.040 --> 0:46:43.760
<v Speaker 5>you more or less likely to vote for them? Overall?

0:46:44.920 --> 0:46:49.000
<v Speaker 5>Twelve point six percent said much more likely, thirty point

0:46:49.120 --> 0:46:51.840
<v Speaker 5>nine said somewhat more likely. So it's a total of

0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:55.800
<v Speaker 5>forty three point one percent said more likely, almost thirty

0:46:55.840 --> 0:47:00.759
<v Speaker 5>percent said less likely overall, so that's you know, not

0:47:01.120 --> 0:47:06.120
<v Speaker 5>super strong. The populist argument, which focused on you know,

0:47:06.440 --> 0:47:10.400
<v Speaker 5>corporate power primarily. The much more likely to vote for

0:47:10.440 --> 0:47:13.560
<v Speaker 5>a candidate using that rhetoric was twenty six point three percent,

0:47:13.760 --> 0:47:16.480
<v Speaker 5>the somewhat more likely twenty nine point three percent, So

0:47:16.640 --> 0:47:20.480
<v Speaker 5>a total of fifty five point six percent more likely

0:47:20.640 --> 0:47:24.320
<v Speaker 5>and only twenty four point two percent. Now that again,

0:47:24.640 --> 0:47:29.560
<v Speaker 5>like that was primarily among Democrats, but independence very much

0:47:29.719 --> 0:47:34.719
<v Speaker 5>to the extent that there was an appetite for a

0:47:34.800 --> 0:47:38.080
<v Speaker 5>lot of the abundance arguments there it felt not exclusively,

0:47:39.080 --> 0:47:43.440
<v Speaker 5>but disproportionately toward the Republican side, and independents acted more

0:47:43.560 --> 0:47:47.520
<v Speaker 5>like democrats in these frameworks. Interesting, and then one of

0:47:47.560 --> 0:47:51.279
<v Speaker 5>the important things, right, so then we just asked the question, well,

0:47:51.400 --> 0:47:54.360
<v Speaker 5>now that you heard both these perspectives, which one do

0:47:54.480 --> 0:47:58.399
<v Speaker 5>you agree with most, even if neither is exactly right.

0:47:59.320 --> 0:48:02.600
<v Speaker 5>The abundance got twenty nine point two percent, the populace

0:48:02.719 --> 0:48:05.919
<v Speaker 5>got forty two point eight percent. I'm sure got twenty

0:48:05.960 --> 0:48:08.800
<v Speaker 5>eight percent. And that goes back to one of the

0:48:09.080 --> 0:48:12.440
<v Speaker 5>amusing things about how all of this went viral and

0:48:12.520 --> 0:48:14.600
<v Speaker 5>there was all this debate on social media for the

0:48:15.160 --> 0:48:18.080
<v Speaker 5>past couple of days where it's like, this is not

0:48:18.280 --> 0:48:21.600
<v Speaker 5>the end of the story or the end up into

0:48:21.840 --> 0:48:26.320
<v Speaker 5>these issues. This is one poll and they're you know,

0:48:26.440 --> 0:48:27.759
<v Speaker 5>and a lot of the stuff that came up, a

0:48:27.760 --> 0:48:29.960
<v Speaker 5>lot of the critiques people are like, well did you

0:48:30.000 --> 0:48:31.160
<v Speaker 5>try polling this language?

0:48:31.400 --> 0:48:34.840
<v Speaker 8>Like oh, like, we will in the future will continue

0:48:34.920 --> 0:48:36.400
<v Speaker 8>to look at this, and other people will in the

0:48:36.480 --> 0:48:43.200
<v Speaker 8>future as well, but the striking thing is how people

0:48:43.719 --> 0:48:45.799
<v Speaker 8>you know, are are telling us in this.

0:48:46.800 --> 0:48:51.279
<v Speaker 5>They think the cause of their economic anxiety is corporations

0:48:51.520 --> 0:48:53.960
<v Speaker 5>having too much power. They're being too much corruption on

0:48:54.000 --> 0:48:57.120
<v Speaker 5>the levels of government. And then even when we ask

0:48:57.280 --> 0:48:59.120
<v Speaker 5>like later, and this is stuff that hasn't gotten like

0:48:59.200 --> 0:49:03.440
<v Speaker 5>public yet, we asked, to the extent that there's excessive regulation,

0:49:03.880 --> 0:49:06.960
<v Speaker 5>is that the fault of big corporations using their influence

0:49:07.000 --> 0:49:08.880
<v Speaker 5>for their own profit or is that the fault of

0:49:08.960 --> 0:49:13.400
<v Speaker 5>actualist groups? Overwhelmingly more people said it's the fault to

0:49:13.440 --> 0:49:14.439
<v Speaker 5>the big corporations.

0:49:15.520 --> 0:49:21.600
<v Speaker 2>Even interesting into the apportioning the blame for these bottlenecks,

0:49:21.760 --> 0:49:23.120
<v Speaker 2>they're like, corporate power.

0:49:23.600 --> 0:49:27.719
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, right, absolutely, And so that's why we ended up

0:49:27.760 --> 0:49:29.719
<v Speaker 5>going public with this stuff because they're like, actually, these

0:49:29.760 --> 0:49:32.080
<v Speaker 5>results are really striking. Of course, it's not going to

0:49:32.120 --> 0:49:35.319
<v Speaker 5>be the final word on any subject, but it's it's

0:49:35.360 --> 0:49:37.040
<v Speaker 5>a pretty important thing to get out there.

0:49:37.760 --> 0:49:40.560
<v Speaker 2>Ryan, Can you put back up, Yeah, put back up

0:49:40.560 --> 0:49:42.680
<v Speaker 2>the Eric levittz tweet here, and let's just get you

0:49:42.800 --> 0:49:43.360
<v Speaker 2>to respond to.

0:49:43.400 --> 0:49:44.560
<v Speaker 3>This critique thread here.

0:49:44.680 --> 0:49:48.359
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, to this critique. He says, this poll is shamelessly hackish. Yes,

0:49:48.600 --> 0:49:53.840
<v Speaker 2>and populus rhetoric is definitely more resonant the technocratic critiques

0:49:53.840 --> 0:49:56.800
<v Speaker 2>of zoning ANIPA three. The political case for monents is

0:49:56.840 --> 0:49:59.640
<v Speaker 2>that voters will punish you if shit gets expensive, not

0:49:59.760 --> 0:50:03.480
<v Speaker 2>that fight bottle next is a popular message. And this

0:50:03.640 --> 0:50:06.000
<v Speaker 2>is I think consistent with a number of the critiques

0:50:06.040 --> 0:50:08.480
<v Speaker 2>that I saw. You you sort of reference, so there

0:50:08.480 --> 0:50:11.560
<v Speaker 2>were critiques about the language could have been different, or

0:50:12.640 --> 0:50:14.680
<v Speaker 2>you know. Another one we saw is basically like, well,

0:50:14.840 --> 0:50:16.960
<v Speaker 2>this wasn't really meant to be and Eric is kind

0:50:17.000 --> 0:50:19.600
<v Speaker 2>of getting at this like abundance messaging isn't meant to

0:50:19.680 --> 0:50:23.800
<v Speaker 2>be the most politically potent messaging. It's about delivering for people.

0:50:23.880 --> 0:50:26.200
<v Speaker 2>What did you make of some of the points that

0:50:26.280 --> 0:50:28.480
<v Speaker 2>are raised here, though, Well, my favorite is.

0:50:28.520 --> 0:50:31.880
<v Speaker 5>His first point that the poll is, uh, was it

0:50:32.680 --> 0:50:39.040
<v Speaker 5>shames hackish? Yeah? Absolutely, And every single person part of

0:50:39.120 --> 0:50:42.719
<v Speaker 5>this debate on any side is absolutely hackish. This is

0:50:42.800 --> 0:50:47.000
<v Speaker 5>not being discussed in corporate breakrooms, you know, this is

0:50:47.120 --> 0:50:52.399
<v Speaker 5>completely in the realm of hacks. His second point like, okay,

0:50:52.760 --> 0:50:56.080
<v Speaker 5>so then we're in agreement. The populist framings are far

0:50:56.200 --> 0:51:01.839
<v Speaker 5>more resonant than it is rather technical. It's framings, right,

0:51:02.520 --> 0:51:05.400
<v Speaker 5>So like no disagreement there that's what we're saying.

0:51:06.239 --> 0:51:07.960
<v Speaker 2>Right, So then I mean that to me raises the

0:51:08.040 --> 0:51:12.279
<v Speaker 2>question then is the goal to run as a populist

0:51:12.400 --> 0:51:15.279
<v Speaker 2>challenging corporate power, but then to a bate and switch

0:51:15.360 --> 0:51:18.440
<v Speaker 2>where the actual program is like zoning reform, because it

0:51:18.520 --> 0:51:21.359
<v Speaker 2>seems like a recipe for also political disaster of people

0:51:21.440 --> 0:51:24.240
<v Speaker 2>being like you ran on something and you didn't deliver

0:51:24.440 --> 0:51:26.760
<v Speaker 2>on what you promised and the way you positioned yourself.

0:51:27.320 --> 0:51:29.800
<v Speaker 5>When when this poll came out, I had numerous friends

0:51:30.000 --> 0:51:32.239
<v Speaker 5>text me and go, So the solution is to run

0:51:32.320 --> 0:51:34.040
<v Speaker 5>on populism and then do abundance.

0:51:34.080 --> 0:51:34.680
<v Speaker 4>And it's just like.

0:51:36.719 --> 0:51:39.960
<v Speaker 5>I think the reality is. And this is an important

0:51:40.000 --> 0:51:42.120
<v Speaker 5>thing when we talk about what the message should be.

0:51:42.200 --> 0:51:44.640
<v Speaker 5>There's been all this discussion there was during the previous

0:51:44.719 --> 0:51:47.800
<v Speaker 5>presidential race and going to midterms, what should the Democrats

0:51:47.880 --> 0:51:51.600
<v Speaker 5>message be? Message requires that you have credibility, and if

0:51:51.640 --> 0:51:53.759
<v Speaker 5>people don't believe that you're actually going to stand up

0:51:53.800 --> 0:51:57.120
<v Speaker 5>to corporations and fight corporate power do all that, then

0:51:57.160 --> 0:51:59.320
<v Speaker 5>it doesn't matter if you're you know, it might be

0:51:59.440 --> 0:52:03.120
<v Speaker 5>marginally better to say you are, but it doesn't ultimately help.

0:52:03.239 --> 0:52:05.840
<v Speaker 5>You have to be doing it, And I don't know

0:52:06.000 --> 0:52:09.840
<v Speaker 5>anyone who doesn't believe there are some regulatory changes that

0:52:09.960 --> 0:52:15.000
<v Speaker 5>would help in certain industries at certain places to reduce

0:52:15.120 --> 0:52:18.000
<v Speaker 5>the price of things and to create more goods, like

0:52:18.239 --> 0:52:20.400
<v Speaker 5>which is in the abundance wheelhouse. Like I don't know

0:52:20.480 --> 0:52:23.120
<v Speaker 5>anyone who disagrees that there's not places to do that.

0:52:23.960 --> 0:52:27.080
<v Speaker 5>But that has nothing to do with where are you

0:52:28.560 --> 0:52:32.760
<v Speaker 5>insisting taxes come from, you know, relative to the working

0:52:32.800 --> 0:52:35.840
<v Speaker 5>class to you know, the very rich, Like how are

0:52:35.880 --> 0:52:38.399
<v Speaker 5>you dealing with those other policy things? So I think

0:52:38.480 --> 0:52:42.879
<v Speaker 5>the solution is build the confidence of the voters by

0:52:43.760 --> 0:52:50.040
<v Speaker 5>running on populist ideas doing concrete populist things. And also

0:52:50.320 --> 0:52:54.160
<v Speaker 5>when you find that someone who's in the abundance camp goes, hey,

0:52:54.280 --> 0:52:56.719
<v Speaker 5>here's a regulation that's actually like not doing what it

0:52:56.800 --> 0:53:00.000
<v Speaker 5>intended to and is like mucking up some economic system.

0:53:00.000 --> 0:53:02.399
<v Speaker 5>So of course, then take care of that. Yeah.

0:53:02.920 --> 0:53:05.600
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, Here I'm sharing this post from Chris Murphy, Senator

0:53:05.640 --> 0:53:10.160
<v Speaker 6>Chris Murphy, who has dabbled in trying to, I guess,

0:53:10.560 --> 0:53:14.080
<v Speaker 6>make the Democratic Party's message respond to the populist moment.

0:53:14.160 --> 0:53:17.040
<v Speaker 6>He says it's a weird exposition because why not craft

0:53:17.080 --> 0:53:20.000
<v Speaker 6>a message where we aggressively reduce concentrated corporate power and

0:53:20.239 --> 0:53:23.279
<v Speaker 6>we fix bottlenecks and build more stuff. And Dan, this

0:53:23.400 --> 0:53:27.400
<v Speaker 6>brings us to, I think an interesting question as to

0:53:27.560 --> 0:53:31.400
<v Speaker 6>whether sort of mainstream establishment Democrats and I think everyone

0:53:31.719 --> 0:53:35.040
<v Speaker 6>has to include Chris Murphy in that group, are capable

0:53:35.480 --> 0:53:39.600
<v Speaker 6>of adopting the messaging of populism. And you know, we

0:53:39.600 --> 0:53:41.760
<v Speaker 6>could talk about in substance, as you just said, marrying

0:53:41.880 --> 0:53:47.400
<v Speaker 6>it with genuine populism and abundance downstream after being elected

0:53:47.480 --> 0:53:50.480
<v Speaker 6>because voters say, we trust you and that message is.

0:53:50.480 --> 0:53:54.479
<v Speaker 4>Appealing to us. But can they actually pull it off?

0:53:55.080 --> 0:53:58.880
<v Speaker 6>Given the way Democrats tend to approach these questions, do

0:53:58.960 --> 0:54:00.800
<v Speaker 6>you have a take on that, like, what would this

0:54:00.960 --> 0:54:04.760
<v Speaker 6>look like in practice for a mainstream establishment democratic politician

0:54:04.760 --> 0:54:08.000
<v Speaker 6>who's not Bernie Sanders to Kamala Harris tried to do

0:54:08.080 --> 0:54:13.360
<v Speaker 6>this a little bit, to actually embrace that type of messaging.

0:54:13.440 --> 0:54:14.600
<v Speaker 4>It seems pretty hard.

0:54:15.480 --> 0:54:15.680
<v Speaker 6>Yeah.

0:54:15.760 --> 0:54:20.279
<v Speaker 5>I mean, look, ultimately, when elections are happening, they are

0:54:20.440 --> 0:54:24.640
<v Speaker 5>run by candidates and not parties, So it's really case

0:54:24.719 --> 0:54:28.000
<v Speaker 5>by case who would have credibility kind of carrying that

0:54:28.560 --> 0:54:31.239
<v Speaker 5>populist water. And I think that people who have been

0:54:31.320 --> 0:54:34.120
<v Speaker 5>viewed as part of the larger Democratic establishment to date

0:54:34.480 --> 0:54:36.240
<v Speaker 5>are going to have a hard time doing that because

0:54:36.280 --> 0:54:39.400
<v Speaker 5>the voters clearly and we you know, tested some of

0:54:39.440 --> 0:54:40.800
<v Speaker 5>that in the beginning of this just to get some

0:54:40.920 --> 0:54:44.480
<v Speaker 5>benchmarks that people don't have great confidence in either party

0:54:44.719 --> 0:54:47.160
<v Speaker 5>to really carry that water, you know. I think if

0:54:47.160 --> 0:54:53.160
<v Speaker 5>there's an immediate lesson, it's you need new faces talking

0:54:53.160 --> 0:54:59.240
<v Speaker 5>about you know, some really traditional classic ideas, but highlight

0:54:59.440 --> 0:55:03.319
<v Speaker 5>the success us where that's that's working. And I mean

0:55:03.360 --> 0:55:06.040
<v Speaker 5>that would be my advice, like generally, like if you're

0:55:06.160 --> 0:55:09.800
<v Speaker 5>starting from a point where voters have so little confidence

0:55:09.840 --> 0:55:11.919
<v Speaker 5>in you, but you feel like you've got a winning

0:55:11.960 --> 0:55:14.480
<v Speaker 5>message and a winning agenda, you have to first of

0:55:14.480 --> 0:55:17.880
<v Speaker 5>all mean it. And I'm sure everyone could debate for

0:55:17.960 --> 0:55:21.440
<v Speaker 5>hours whether most of the top level Democrats really give

0:55:21.480 --> 0:55:22.680
<v Speaker 5>a shit about this stuff or.

0:55:22.719 --> 0:55:26.080
<v Speaker 4>The senator from Connecticut Yeah, yeah, But.

0:55:26.160 --> 0:55:29.040
<v Speaker 5>It's like, if you really want to build a populist

0:55:29.280 --> 0:55:34.640
<v Speaker 5>based Democratic party, then you need to uplift leaders who

0:55:34.840 --> 0:55:38.320
<v Speaker 5>are credibly carrying that water to some degree already and

0:55:38.480 --> 0:55:41.000
<v Speaker 5>keep kind of amplifying that. Yeah.

0:55:41.000 --> 0:55:43.759
<v Speaker 2>I think that's it's such an important point. Is why

0:55:43.920 --> 0:55:48.200
<v Speaker 2>the Bernie aoc Oligarchy tour has been so effective is

0:55:48.280 --> 0:55:50.440
<v Speaker 2>not only because the message resonates, you know, when it's

0:55:50.440 --> 0:55:53.400
<v Speaker 2>consistent with the populist messaging that you're testing here. But

0:55:53.440 --> 0:55:56.719
<v Speaker 2>they're both people that have, you know, some credibility in

0:55:56.719 --> 0:55:59.680
<v Speaker 2>the space, Bernie Sanders in particular, and so you know,

0:55:59.719 --> 0:56:03.759
<v Speaker 2>I think people sometimes miss that is an important part.

0:56:03.880 --> 0:56:06.920
<v Speaker 2>You can't just you can't just we appreciate posters, appreciate

0:56:06.960 --> 0:56:09.279
<v Speaker 2>the work that you do, but there has to be

0:56:09.360 --> 0:56:12.520
<v Speaker 2>some credibility to back it up. The thing that, you know,

0:56:13.160 --> 0:56:16.400
<v Speaker 2>was the funniest dodge to me was the claim by

0:56:16.480 --> 0:56:19.640
<v Speaker 2>some that abundance in like I said, Eric Levitz and

0:56:19.680 --> 0:56:22.240
<v Speaker 2>his critique, they're kind of gestures at it, that abundance

0:56:22.280 --> 0:56:25.280
<v Speaker 2>isn't really meant to be a political platform.

0:56:25.360 --> 0:56:27.880
<v Speaker 3>Because that's while you're speaking. I'll put up a couple.

0:56:28.560 --> 0:56:32.359
<v Speaker 2>Examples of this. Yeah, because the I mean, I had

0:56:32.440 --> 0:56:35.319
<v Speaker 2>Derek on breaking points. I got to engage with him

0:56:35.360 --> 0:56:37.239
<v Speaker 2>on a bunch of these points. You know, I explicitly

0:56:37.280 --> 0:56:39.279
<v Speaker 2>asked him the question, Okay, well, is this is how

0:56:39.320 --> 0:56:41.640
<v Speaker 2>a policy reforms because that's one thing, or is this

0:56:41.800 --> 0:56:45.279
<v Speaker 2>like a central message and political platform and movement. I've

0:56:45.320 --> 0:56:47.080
<v Speaker 2>read the book, by the way, you know, I read

0:56:47.080 --> 0:56:49.440
<v Speaker 2>the whole book. I've engaged with the critiques, I've engaged

0:56:49.480 --> 0:56:51.759
<v Speaker 2>with the defenses, all of those sorts of things, and

0:56:51.840 --> 0:56:55.880
<v Speaker 2>they're consistent in saying, no, this is yes, it's some

0:56:56.120 --> 0:57:00.400
<v Speaker 2>specific policy ideas, but this is really about how we

0:57:00.520 --> 0:57:03.920
<v Speaker 2>think the National Democratic Party should be oriented. And this is,

0:57:04.120 --> 0:57:05.880
<v Speaker 2>you know, in evidence by the fact that as re

0:57:05.960 --> 0:57:09.480
<v Speaker 2>client is like meeting with the Senate Democratic Caucus. If

0:57:09.520 --> 0:57:12.280
<v Speaker 2>you were most interested in like the you know, local

0:57:12.360 --> 0:57:14.880
<v Speaker 2>level zoning reform, you wouldn't be going to the national

0:57:14.920 --> 0:57:16.640
<v Speaker 2>Political Party. You'd be going, like, you know, to the

0:57:16.680 --> 0:57:20.400
<v Speaker 2>San Francisco board or mayor or you know, other localities

0:57:20.440 --> 0:57:23.240
<v Speaker 2>where you think that this program really needs to be effectuated.

0:57:23.560 --> 0:57:27.200
<v Speaker 2>So that was to me, you know, an interesting almost

0:57:27.240 --> 0:57:31.440
<v Speaker 2>admission that they recognize that well actually as a messaging

0:57:31.560 --> 0:57:35.400
<v Speaker 2>device to organize a political project around there are some

0:57:35.520 --> 0:57:36.200
<v Speaker 2>weaknesses here.

0:57:37.440 --> 0:57:41.680
<v Speaker 5>I think that people were arguing that point from different sides,

0:57:41.720 --> 0:57:44.600
<v Speaker 5>at least in the little firestorm online. Yeah, because there

0:57:44.680 --> 0:57:46.320
<v Speaker 5>was a lot of focus on, oh, if you had

0:57:46.440 --> 0:57:50.880
<v Speaker 5>used this slightly different language, maybe it would have pulled better,

0:57:51.080 --> 0:57:55.560
<v Speaker 5>which was also an amusing criticism because we use the

0:57:55.640 --> 0:57:59.160
<v Speaker 5>exact language that the leading proponents of abundance have been

0:57:59.200 --> 0:58:02.200
<v Speaker 5>putting out there. So if the argument is that that

0:58:02.480 --> 0:58:05.040
<v Speaker 5>language actually sucks, like maybe you should talk.

0:58:04.880 --> 0:58:09.120
<v Speaker 2>About where can you can you just elaborate on that, Dan,

0:58:09.160 --> 0:58:10.440
<v Speaker 2>Where did the language come from?

0:58:10.920 --> 0:58:12.960
<v Speaker 5>So a lot of the frameworks in the book, like,

0:58:13.040 --> 0:58:18.440
<v Speaker 5>for instance, the concern about using bottlenecks and the suggestion

0:58:18.600 --> 0:58:21.360
<v Speaker 5>of using red tape, like a couple things on that

0:58:21.520 --> 0:58:25.320
<v Speaker 5>first off, like sure in future polling, like we'll test

0:58:25.600 --> 0:58:27.600
<v Speaker 5>red tape, like cutting red tape, Like I have no

0:58:27.680 --> 0:58:33.360
<v Speaker 5>problem with that. The language itself came from largely the book,

0:58:33.400 --> 0:58:37.040
<v Speaker 5>which mentions bottlenecks at least a dozen times, and to

0:58:37.360 --> 0:58:41.480
<v Speaker 5>my understanding, does not mention cutting red tape once, and

0:58:41.800 --> 0:58:44.280
<v Speaker 5>we do talk about, you know, reducing regulations. But the

0:58:44.480 --> 0:58:48.200
<v Speaker 5>other point is like in understanding polling, like we're not

0:58:48.680 --> 0:58:55.240
<v Speaker 5>testing words, we're testing a political program that uses those words.

0:58:55.240 --> 0:58:59.440
<v Speaker 5>So if someone reads a full paragraph explaining a policy,

0:58:59.640 --> 0:59:03.160
<v Speaker 5>set up policy ideas and one word is different from

0:59:03.200 --> 0:59:06.280
<v Speaker 5>what you think the ideal word, that's not going to

0:59:06.360 --> 0:59:10.600
<v Speaker 5>substantially change the results because people understand what the concept is.

0:59:11.040 --> 0:59:13.280
<v Speaker 5>So a lot of the focus on that, like one

0:59:13.360 --> 0:59:17.160
<v Speaker 5>word in one term, like sure, we can test things differently,

0:59:17.320 --> 0:59:20.840
<v Speaker 5>But that's really not gonna be like, you know, the

0:59:20.920 --> 0:59:25.200
<v Speaker 5>magic bullet that suddenly makes abundance the thing everyone's clamoring for, because.

0:59:25.080 --> 0:59:27.960
<v Speaker 2>Especially when it wasn't close, you know, if this was

0:59:28.040 --> 0:59:31.720
<v Speaker 2>like a fifty two forty eight kind of a proposition, maybe,

0:59:32.160 --> 0:59:34.880
<v Speaker 2>but it was pretty clear, especially when you're talking about

0:59:34.880 --> 0:59:38.000
<v Speaker 2>a democratic base, which is this is an intrademocratic party

0:59:38.040 --> 0:59:38.800
<v Speaker 2>fight at this point.

0:59:39.800 --> 0:59:42.960
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean, but what's so important and I don't

0:59:43.000 --> 0:59:46.120
<v Speaker 5>think this is like a new addition to the discussion

0:59:46.160 --> 0:59:49.680
<v Speaker 5>about how the Democratic Party should rebuild itself. It's an

0:59:49.680 --> 0:59:55.960
<v Speaker 5>intrademocratic fight right now that requires for ultimate success. That's

0:59:56.080 --> 1:00:01.040
<v Speaker 5>that's credibly resonant with independence along the way right, And

1:00:01.200 --> 1:00:04.400
<v Speaker 5>that's the thing that really stands out, Like the fact

1:00:04.440 --> 1:00:06.720
<v Speaker 5>that the Democrats are falling on like what is like

1:00:06.880 --> 1:00:10.600
<v Speaker 5>a more traditional yet populist liberal. I think that's not surprising,

1:00:10.680 --> 1:00:14.680
<v Speaker 5>but the number among independents are just really clearly falling

1:00:14.680 --> 1:00:16.040
<v Speaker 5>along the populist line as well.

1:00:16.200 --> 1:00:20.200
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that's a great point. That's a great point. Got

1:00:20.280 --> 1:00:23.560
<v Speaker 2>any other questions, guys, you want to throw it Dan, My.

1:00:23.640 --> 1:00:27.040
<v Speaker 3>Last one would be, would you commit to if Jonathan

1:00:27.120 --> 1:00:31.439
<v Speaker 3>Chait or somebody comes to you with a better question, can.

1:00:31.360 --> 1:00:32.800
<v Speaker 5>You Yeah, I mean, if you put it out in

1:00:32.840 --> 1:00:36.320
<v Speaker 5>a poll, I would be more than happy to. I mean,

1:00:36.360 --> 1:00:40.080
<v Speaker 5>I just can't emphasize enough, like my skepticism about this

1:00:40.240 --> 1:00:42.840
<v Speaker 5>initial project from the get go. You know, some people

1:00:43.120 --> 1:00:46.520
<v Speaker 5>were like mocking, like, oh, this is obviously not disinterested.

1:00:46.840 --> 1:00:49.600
<v Speaker 5>I was both disinterested and uninterested. I didn't even want

1:00:49.600 --> 1:00:55.000
<v Speaker 5>to do this whole the perfect combo. So, like, for sure,

1:00:55.160 --> 1:00:58.040
<v Speaker 5>if there's any any subsequent uh, you know, research we

1:00:58.160 --> 1:01:00.640
<v Speaker 5>do on this, like a lot of stuff people have

1:01:00.720 --> 1:01:06.480
<v Speaker 5>brought up, you know, as as suggestions and criticism, like yeah, well, also.

1:01:06.800 --> 1:01:09.360
<v Speaker 3>Can you also pull how many people know the actual

1:01:09.600 --> 1:01:15.400
<v Speaker 3>difference between disinterested and uninterested? Just throw that question in

1:01:16.680 --> 1:01:17.280
<v Speaker 3>I would.

1:01:17.560 --> 1:01:19.640
<v Speaker 5>I think people will get confused answering.

1:01:19.400 --> 1:01:22.600
<v Speaker 3>That though, And for everybody watching, let's do a public

1:01:22.640 --> 1:01:25.800
<v Speaker 3>service here. Disinterests, I mean you're you're like unbiased, You like,

1:01:25.880 --> 1:01:29.200
<v Speaker 3>you don't have an interest. And by interest, it doesn't

1:01:29.240 --> 1:01:32.280
<v Speaker 3>mean you're not excited about the thing, means you don't

1:01:32.320 --> 1:01:35.480
<v Speaker 3>have a financial or personal vested interest in the thing.

1:01:35.520 --> 1:01:41.760
<v Speaker 3>You are disinterested outside as an observers uninterested, which means

1:01:41.760 --> 1:01:44.600
<v Speaker 3>you're bored by it. So just everybody get that.

1:01:44.920 --> 1:01:46.880
<v Speaker 2>We're going to do a special show Jess for Ryan

1:01:46.920 --> 1:01:49.280
<v Speaker 2>where he just spends an hour defining relevant terms.

1:01:49.360 --> 1:01:53.320
<v Speaker 3>Yes, I'll do it. If you do that pole question

1:01:54.800 --> 1:01:55.800
<v Speaker 3>and we'll record on.

1:01:56.080 --> 1:01:57.960
<v Speaker 5>We'll come back and be part of that lesson.

1:02:00.080 --> 1:02:02.360
<v Speaker 2>All right, Thank you, Dan, great chat with you?

1:02:03.400 --> 1:02:03.760
<v Speaker 5>All right?

1:02:04.280 --> 1:02:04.800
<v Speaker 4>He was great?

1:02:05.360 --> 1:02:08.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, he was great. Did you know him, Ryan, you've

1:02:08.840 --> 1:02:09.479
<v Speaker 2>talked to him before?

1:02:09.560 --> 1:02:09.760
<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

1:02:09.760 --> 1:02:11.880
<v Speaker 3>I talked to him about some polling in the past.

1:02:12.120 --> 1:02:14.480
<v Speaker 3>He's done a lot of work with David Siegel in

1:02:14.520 --> 1:02:16.800
<v Speaker 3>the band Progress. But he's he's really good.

1:02:17.440 --> 1:02:19.560
<v Speaker 2>Gotcha nice? Yeah, fun talking to him. We'll have to

1:02:19.600 --> 1:02:23.000
<v Speaker 2>find other excuses to have him back. Should we circle

1:02:23.000 --> 1:02:24.640
<v Speaker 2>back to his arm? Because I actually feel like this.

1:02:24.800 --> 1:02:27.000
<v Speaker 2>All right, guys, thank you so much for watching the

1:02:27.240 --> 1:02:28.920
<v Speaker 2>free portion of the Friday Show. We're going to move

1:02:29.000 --> 1:02:31.760
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1:02:31.920 --> 1:02:34.280
<v Speaker 2>watch that as well, make sure to go and subscribe

1:02:34.400 --> 1:02:37.040
<v Speaker 2>at Breakingpoints dot com. And for all of you guys

1:02:37.040 --> 1:02:39.520
<v Speaker 2>who are already premium subscribers, that portion is going to

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<v Speaker 2>start right now.