1 00:00:02,360 --> 00:00:09,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. I'm Stephen Carroll and 2 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:12,280 Speaker 1: this is Here's Why, where we take one new story 3 00:00:12,320 --> 00:00:14,319 Speaker 1: and explain it in just a few minutes with our 4 00:00:14,360 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 1: experts here at Bloomberg. She told Trump the return of 5 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: Taiwan to China is a key part of the post 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:26,680 Speaker 1: World War two international order. 7 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:29,920 Speaker 2: We've seen a fracturing to some extent of this administration 8 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: on the Russia issue. 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 1: It's not impossible that we'd have a similar fracturing on 10 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: the Taiwan China issue. European country are facing the austraight 11 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:42,479 Speaker 1: from Russia, w China being decisive in abrah. 12 00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: Trump had a very important meeting with President she but 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,760 Speaker 2: crucially the issue of Taiwan did not come up. So 14 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 2: now the issue is back on the table. 15 00:00:50,840 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: Taiwan is one of the most politically sensitive issues in Asia. 16 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 1: It's also a pillar of the global economy, producing around 17 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: ninety percent of the world's most advanced computer chips, so 18 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: any murmuring around Taiwan's future can cause waves. China has 19 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 1: a longstanding objective of reunification with the self governing island, 20 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:12,720 Speaker 1: and now She Jinping is watching Donald Trump's peace plan 21 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:17,479 Speaker 1: for Ukraine closely for any lessons Beijing can learn, Here's 22 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: why Taiwan's future might be tied to Ukraine. Bloomberg opinion 23 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: columnist Karishmavswani has been writing about this, and she joins 24 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: me now for more. Karishma. First of all, how can 25 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,640 Speaker 1: we understand the current state of relations between Beijing and Taipei? 26 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: Well, Stephen, I think you know it would not be 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: unfair to say that the current state of relations are 28 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:42,559 Speaker 2: pretty terrible. In fact, just to lay out the positions 29 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 2: on either side for our audience, China used Taiwan as 30 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: its own territory, which you know it has consistently said 31 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 2: that it plans to unify with through peaceful means or 32 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:57,280 Speaker 2: by force if necessary. That's an all the official documentation 33 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 2: about this issue. Taiwan, for its part, sees itself as 34 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: a self governed, democratic island with its own distinct and 35 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,639 Speaker 2: unique identity. And that's something that has been growing over 36 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 2: the last several years where you see a real move 37 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,680 Speaker 2: towards the definition of what it means to be Taiwanese 38 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 2: versus Chinese. Now, in terms of official communication channels between 39 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: the two governments, those have actually largely been shut down. 40 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:27,120 Speaker 2: Since twenty sixteen, Beijing has been intensifying military pressure around 41 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 2: the island, with near daily incursions into the airspace and 42 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,520 Speaker 2: the seas around the island. It's also been intensifying the 43 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:38,040 Speaker 2: diplomatic pressure on the few allies Taiwan has left, and 44 00:02:38,360 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 2: it gets very very annoyed with the current president, leijingdur 45 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 2: who it views as a separatist. So you've got this 46 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:51,240 Speaker 2: relationship that's defined by strategic mistrust and on the Taiwanese side, 47 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 2: a really precarious position, particularly given the Trump administration's ambiguity 48 00:02:58,200 --> 00:03:00,720 Speaker 2: around what they would do if indeed there is a 49 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 2: conflict around Taiwan. 50 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: Is there any suggestion at the moment that Beijing is 51 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 1: planning any steps in that direction. In addition to all 52 00:03:08,000 --> 00:03:10,720 Speaker 1: that pressure that you're talking about, The sort. 53 00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:14,119 Speaker 2: Of scholarly debate on this is divided, and in my view, 54 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 2: there's no imminent evidence of an invasion. But what I 55 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:22,239 Speaker 2: will say is that China will always want to win 56 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 2: without firing a shot, and that's why you see the 57 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: kind of step up in military activities around the island, 58 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 2: the pressure that it's imposing on diplomatic allies. You see 59 00:03:33,280 --> 00:03:36,560 Speaker 2: the rapid build up of the People's Liberation Army and 60 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 2: all of this is to clearly shape the environment to 61 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: make Taiwan feel more vulnerable over time, and I think 62 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 2: that's the intention. Now. What you are also seeing is 63 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 2: sort of the cyber attacks being ramped up, disinformation campaigns 64 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 2: being ramped up, economic measures that threaten and undermine Taiwan's confidence. 65 00:03:57,440 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: So what this is called a gray zone coersion, and 66 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:03,720 Speaker 2: it sort of falls short of all out war or 67 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:08,120 Speaker 2: a blockade or an invasion, but it does erode Taiwanese security, 68 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 2: and there's no sense that it could be immediate. But 69 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 2: I think it's definitely the picture that we have of 70 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 2: Beijing preparing the political military and sort of laying the 71 00:04:18,920 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 2: groundwork for a confrontation if it chooses to escalate. 72 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 1: So what's the connection then to Ukraine? Why is President 73 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:29,200 Speaker 1: she watching the Trump administrations push to end the war 74 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: in Ukraine so closely? 75 00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 2: So this is really interesting. In a phone call between 76 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:38,520 Speaker 2: President Cjen Ping and Donald Trump recently on the Chinese side, 77 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:42,799 Speaker 2: the Taiwan issue was mentioned quite blatantly, and it's something 78 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 2: that the Chinese feel very strongly about. And I think 79 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 2: you know, in the background of all of this You've 80 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 2: got the ongoing consultations about what will happen with the 81 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: American peace plan for Ukraine, and I think the Chinese 82 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 2: are looking at that and seeing how much or what 83 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: kinds of concessions there might be that Russia gets in 84 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 2: all of this. And it's not the first time that 85 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 2: the parallel has been drawn between Ukraine and Taiwan. Quite famously, 86 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 2: the former Japanese Prime Minister in twenty twenty two, for 87 00:05:13,279 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 2: Meo Kashida said first Ukraine, then East Asia in a 88 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:21,239 Speaker 2: reference that many took to mean Taiwan. And I think 89 00:05:21,600 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 2: that underlines all of this. I think what Sijenping is 90 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 2: looking at is a possible window of opportunity with Donald Trump, 91 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,080 Speaker 2: who is trying to cement better ties with China for 92 00:05:31,160 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: trade and all sorts of other reasons, he wants to 93 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 2: draw the redline around Taiwan. That this is something that 94 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: he sees as part of his legacy. Unification is going 95 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 2: to happen eventually, either you know, as I've said, by 96 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,599 Speaker 2: peaceful means or by force, and he wants to make 97 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 2: sure that nothing gets in the way of that. And 98 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 2: I think the Chinese are looking at whatever peace plan 99 00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 2: comes out of the conversations around Russia and Ukraine as 100 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 2: a possible template in the future. 101 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: What could then prompt Donald Trump to get involved in 102 00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: relations between Beijing and Taipei. Does that look likely? Well? 103 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:08,120 Speaker 2: I think what you have right now is quite a 104 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 2: departure from what we've seen under the Biden administration. The 105 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:16,200 Speaker 2: Trump administration and Donald Trump in particular, has been really 106 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 2: ambiguous about whether, you know, the US will come to 107 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:26,039 Speaker 2: Taiwan's assistance if indeed there is an invasion or any conflict. Instead, 108 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: what it has said, as it has said to many 109 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,240 Speaker 2: of its partners and allies in Asia, that you've got 110 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 2: to cough up more for defense, and Taiwan has been 111 00:06:33,880 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: doing that. 112 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 1: You know. 113 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: Just in the last week we've seen the Taiwanese government 114 00:06:38,120 --> 00:06:41,279 Speaker 2: announce that it plans to spend another forty billion dollars 115 00:06:41,680 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 2: on defense. Of course, that has to go through a 116 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: you know, sort of politically gridlocked parliament, but the intention 117 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: is there, and I think the reason that it's there 118 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 2: is to not just message to Beijing but also to 119 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,640 Speaker 2: Washington that look, we're keen on spending more money on 120 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 2: our defense, but we're going to need help if push 121 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 2: comes to shove is. 122 00:06:58,920 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: That the most that can do at this stage. How 123 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: can Taiwan, I suppose, prepare for any. 124 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 2: Of this, Well, it's already doing that. And I think 125 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 2: what's been remarkable to me just in the last few 126 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 2: years is how much, and in particularly you know, under 127 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: the Trump administration, how much that sense of urgency has increased. 128 00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 2: It wasn't that long ago that military service conscription was 129 00:07:21,240 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 2: only four months. It's now been extended by several months 130 00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 2: to a year, and you have a real sense of 131 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 2: civic responsibility. I think it would be fair to say 132 00:07:31,200 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 2: in Taiwan, where people are waking up to the idea 133 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,640 Speaker 2: that this could happen, that they are sort of at 134 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 2: risk in some shape or form, or at least I 135 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: think the pressure is intensifying on them. On the military front, 136 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 2: you are seeing more money being spent on things like 137 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 2: as they call it, asymmetric defense. These are missiles, drones, 138 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 2: mobile strike systems, and the idea is to provide deterrence 139 00:07:55,200 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 2: and to say, look, China, you know we aren't vulnerable. 140 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 2: We're going to be able to defend ourselves, at least 141 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 2: in the first immediate instance. We're going to put up 142 00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 2: a fight, right like, we're not you can't just march 143 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 2: into this island and take us by force. But the 144 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,600 Speaker 2: most important thing that it needs is a commitment from Washington, 145 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 2: and I think that's the precarious position that Taiwan finds 146 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 2: itself in, and I think with plans from both Siegenping 147 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 2: and Donald Trump to visit each other in twenty twenty six, 148 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 2: those meetings will be watched very very carefully in Taiwan. 149 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: Koreshma Vaswani, Bloomberg opinion columnist. Thank you. For more explanations 150 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 1: like this from our team of three thousand journalists and 151 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: analysts around the world, go to Bloomberg dot com slash explainers. 152 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,880 Speaker 1: I'm Stephen Caroll. This is Here's why. I'll be back 153 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: next week with more. Thanks for listening.