1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:05,080 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Ryan Gardusky. Happy 2 00:00:05,240 --> 00:00:09,200 Speaker 1: post election Thursday. We're taping some wednes Day, so I 3 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:11,760 Speaker 1: got confused for a second but heavy post election Thursday. 4 00:00:12,520 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: It was a wave. There's no easy way to say it. 5 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: It was a Democratic wave across the whole country. I 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 1: was paying attention to local races and states that we're 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 1: not making the national news. In Kansas, in Connecticut, in 8 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,440 Speaker 1: you know, Georgia, in red states and blue and Democrats 9 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: absolutely had a triumphant night. And there's I think multiple 10 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:41,840 Speaker 1: reasons for that. First, in states without heavy, high profile 11 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 1: elections like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Kansas, Republican turnout was pretty mild. 12 00:00:47,880 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: Republican turnout was very low in some places, and it 13 00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 1: definitely hurt Republicans down ballot. I know, for our school 14 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:59,160 Speaker 1: board campaign in Pennsylvania, we for the very first time 15 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: I had door knockers knocking on doors and we paid 16 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: them to go knock on doors. And the overwhelming response 17 00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: for Republicans was I didn't know there was an election happening, 18 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: And you could tell by the time by the way 19 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:13,360 Speaker 1: that the votes that were coming out in Georgia where 20 00:01:13,400 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 1: Republicans lost the state wide election for the first time 21 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: in twenty years by twenty points. It wasn't a high 22 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,400 Speaker 1: profile position, but they did nonetheless lose it by a 23 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:27,479 Speaker 1: substantial margin in an election they weren't expected to. So 24 00:01:27,720 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: the low turnout from non high profile states definitely hurt, 25 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:38,200 Speaker 1: definitely hit. With this great political realignment that has been happening, 26 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:43,200 Speaker 1: we are seeing college educated whites, high intensity voter. They're 27 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 1: the ones who are shifting further to the left, and 28 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: they showed up in big numbers, big big numbers, no 29 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: King's rally, and was a weird the Kings, No King's rally. 30 00:01:53,400 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: Those groups of voters were showing up in drops, and 31 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't know in the average non Virginia, 32 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: non New York City, non New Jersey state if there 33 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 1: were Republicans even engaged at the same level. So I 34 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: think that that was a big part of it nationwide, 35 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: was just the high propensity turnout, high election, high interest election. 36 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,280 Speaker 1: The independent number, the number of Independence showing up was 37 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:24,359 Speaker 1: particularly low compared to their usual percentage, and many of 38 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: them are probably Trump voters or non committal Republicans. Lower 39 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: propensity people. Independence usually always vote at a lower propensity 40 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: than Republicans and Democrats, but it was very, very low. 41 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:40,200 Speaker 1: So I think that's the overall country to begin with. 42 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: Then when you look at high high high stake states, 43 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: I guess states that the media was covering back and 44 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,000 Speaker 1: forth like Virginia, New York City, and New Jersey. I 45 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 1: think that there was two different things happened. So we'll 46 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 1: start in Virginia. Win some series was a bad candidate, right, 47 00:02:57,840 --> 00:02:59,720 Speaker 1: I'm not going to sugarcoat it. I was hearing from 48 00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: people on other campaigns in Virginia how poorly she was 49 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: running her operation, and it showed she lost by the worst, 50 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: by the worst election results for a Republican in almost 51 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 1: half a century. She just did terribly. She turned people off. 52 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,840 Speaker 1: But there was also the issue of the government shutdown, 53 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: and that definitely affects people in Virginia. There was the 54 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 1: issue of Trump's the incumbent president. Whenever you have the 55 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:30,120 Speaker 1: incumbent president being of one party, Virginia New Jersey goes 56 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,639 Speaker 1: the other way. It's a knee jerk reaction. That's part 57 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 1: of the zeitgeist. So you have the government shutdown, you 58 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: have bad candidate on top of the ticket, and you 59 00:03:39,000 --> 00:03:41,760 Speaker 1: have the Republican being in power in the White House, 60 00:03:41,760 --> 00:03:44,240 Speaker 1: and all those things make up a perfect storm against win. 61 00:03:44,320 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: Some sears Jason mire is losing by I think six 62 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 1: points was way larger than I thought it was. But 63 00:03:50,280 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 1: it shows the intensity to which the anti Republican sentiment 64 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: was there. Remember I said to everybody, if when some 65 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:02,160 Speaker 1: Seers loses by double digits, Jason Mirs is going to lose. 66 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,840 Speaker 1: She lost by fourteen points. Had she lost by eight, 67 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: Jason Mirs would have won. And so what did a 68 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: lot of other Republicans down ballot When it comes to 69 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: New Jersey. I was on Buck and Clay's show on 70 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 1: Tuesday and I was just telling them early numbers coming 71 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: out of New Jersey, and the Democratic turnout was preposterously high. 72 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: It was, It was insanely high. I want you to 73 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 1: think of this that Jack Chitarelli to the Republican nominee 74 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 1: who ran in twenty twenty one. He got one hundred 75 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:37,600 Speaker 1: and twenty two thousand more votes than he received in 76 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,559 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, enough to win in a twenty twenty 77 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: one election. Right, had we done the twenty twenty election, 78 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 1: twenty twenty one election again and Murphy. Governor Murphy had 79 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 1: the same amount of votes that he had gotten that year. 80 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,240 Speaker 1: But Jack Shirelly had gotten twenty twenty five numbers, Chitarelli 81 00:04:54,240 --> 00:04:59,160 Speaker 1: would have beat Murphy. Chitdarelli had that much new voters. Remember, 82 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: I said New Jersey one hundred and sixty thousand new 83 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: registered Republicans. But even though Jack Chitarelli got one hundred 84 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:12,080 Speaker 1: and twenty two thousand new voters, the Democrats, Mikey Cheryl 85 00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:17,560 Speaker 1: had over four hundred thousand new voters. They turned up 86 00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 1: out of the woodwork in remarkable numbers. Right. Jack Chitdarelli 87 00:05:24,080 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 1: got one point two five to five million last time. 88 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: He got one point three seven million this time. One 89 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 1: point three seven million, big number. Murphy got one point 90 00:05:35,200 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 1: three to three million last time. Mikey Cheryl got one 91 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: point seven nine million this time. Huge, huge increase coming 92 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 1: out of South Jersey the Democrat of the average Democrat voter, 93 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,159 Speaker 1: Mikey Cheryl had so many Democrats vote for that she 94 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 1: was only four hundred thousand votes away from hitting Kamala 95 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: Harris numbers. That's remarkable and kudos to her campaign for 96 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: running a good campaign. I mean, there's no shame and 97 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: sing there saying somebody of the opposite party ran a 98 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 1: good campaign, but it also speaks to the environment of 99 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 1: the year. That's part of it, and that's what I 100 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 1: want people who feel deflated to realize the year. Sometimes 101 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 1: there are just bad election cycles, right, Sometimes there are 102 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:23,920 Speaker 1: bad election years. There were I have a friend who 103 00:06:24,080 --> 00:06:28,040 Speaker 1: ran for office in New York in a republic leaning area, 104 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: who had a lot of money campaign money, who had 105 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 1: a ground game, who had an operation, who was really 106 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:43,000 Speaker 1: really working hard for the seat, and the Democrat had 107 00:06:43,040 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: no visible campaign whatsoever, was working out of a U 108 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,799 Speaker 1: haul truck after they were evicted from their campaign office. 109 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 1: That is not a joke. That's really happened. And the 110 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:56,200 Speaker 1: Democrat won. And the Democrat won by big numbers, even 111 00:06:56,240 --> 00:07:00,839 Speaker 1: though the Republican is who's replacing a conservative Democrat. Even 112 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:06,680 Speaker 1: though the Republican got five thousand more votes than the 113 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: incumbent got in the last election, it didn't matter because 114 00:07:11,320 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 1: the turnout was just too high. Right, Democrats were turning 115 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:19,200 Speaker 1: out a probably seventy five to eighty percent of a 116 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: presidential year. Republicans are probably turning out its sixty to 117 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: sixty five percent. Independence were at forty forty five percent 118 00:07:26,200 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: in the New York City mayoral election. And I'm going 119 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: to talk to Zachar Denini later about this because he 120 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: covered the mayor election pretty intensely. The most fascinating and 121 00:07:35,080 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: interesting thing that you are going to maybe not here 122 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: you should hear is that in the Democratic primary, Governor 123 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: Cuomo won the support of Hispanics in the Bronx and Blacks, 124 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: primarily Right Asians, a lot of Whites. They voted against 125 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 1: him in this election. According to the New York Times, 126 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: majority White areas voted overwhelmingly for Cuomo, A majority East 127 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:03,440 Speaker 1: Asian areas vote overhalling for Cuomo. You know who didn't. 128 00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,400 Speaker 1: Blacks and Hispanics, the same people that they thought were 129 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 1: going to be the last ones in his coalition, completely 130 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: abandoned him. They voted entirely for the person with the 131 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: DA at the end of their name, because they are Democrats. 132 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 1: Had Cuomo received the amount of support in the Bronx, 133 00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: Queens and Brooklyn, in the Black and Hispanic areas that 134 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: he won in the Democratic primary, I had those percentages, 135 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: he would be mayor right now and not Zara Mundani. 136 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: That base leaving him and even though he got larger 137 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: amounts of you know, basically the old Bloomberg coalition speaks 138 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: to why he lost and courteously what embarrassed himself. And 139 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:46,760 Speaker 1: I'm so so ashamed of him. He should never show 140 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 1: face in public again. What a complete, complete loser. Anyway, 141 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: that's my initial thoughts, but we're going to hear a 142 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: lot in the next coming weeks and days. Democrats and 143 00:08:58,160 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 1: the media are going to sit there and spin this 144 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 1: and said they're and say this is a complete reflection 145 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,439 Speaker 1: of Donald Trump. This is a rejection of all things Maga. 146 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 1: This is a rejection of everything that twenty twenty four 147 00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 1: was about. This is the re realignment of young people 148 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 1: in Hispanics. Two things on that, the Hispanic numbers. We're 149 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:17,959 Speaker 1: going to wait and see. We're going to find out 150 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:21,199 Speaker 1: what the actual turnout was in place like New Jersey. 151 00:09:21,360 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: I looked at one city ahead of this, ahead of 152 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:28,439 Speaker 1: this podcast, and that was Pi Saic, New Jersey, very Hispanic. 153 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 1: In twenty seventeen and in twenty twenty one, the demo 154 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: the Hispanic vote was D plus fifty four and then 155 00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: D plus thirty eight. In the presidential elections in twenty 156 00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:40,560 Speaker 1: sixteen and twenty twenty it was D plus fifty one 157 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 1: and then DE plus twenty five, you could see the 158 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,520 Speaker 1: trajectory towards Republicans, and then in twenty twenty four was 159 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:48,559 Speaker 1: R plus seven Trump pointed by seven points, and this 160 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 1: year was D plus twenty four. Now that is a 161 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 1: massive thirty points swing towards the Democrats. However, it is 162 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,320 Speaker 1: still to the right of where they were in twenty 163 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: twenty one by fourteen points. I think those comparisons are 164 00:10:02,160 --> 00:10:05,320 Speaker 1: going to be very useful because despite a wave election, 165 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,800 Speaker 1: let's see if the new coalition that Trump built of 166 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: voters is back to where they were before Trump ran 167 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four. I doubt that they are. I 168 00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 1: don't know if they are. But what I want to 169 00:10:17,240 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 1: say to the bigger idea of the of the last 170 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 1: night was there were a couple of bright spots for Republicans. 171 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 1: Nasau County Republicans picked up a important school board Loudon County, Virginia. 172 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,599 Speaker 1: There was a handful of things here and there. For 173 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: the most part that it was horrible. I think Republicans 174 00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 1: and especially Republicans in DC, should have an honest moment 175 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 1: with themselves about the state of the economy. The economy 176 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 1: is not good. We cannot lie and just say it's 177 00:10:46,960 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 1: great because Trump's president. It is not good for young 178 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: people especially, It's not good. There's a lot of anxiety 179 00:10:55,160 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: right now over AI, over the changing in the job market, 180 00:10:59,400 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: over what other people can afford to live. There is 181 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,959 Speaker 1: a housing crisis in this country in a large part 182 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 1: because of immigration. Just saying it like it's saying it, 183 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 1: there is an immigration. The immigration that the Bush and 184 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:18,079 Speaker 1: Reagan coalition supported in this country for decades brought in 185 00:11:18,160 --> 00:11:21,000 Speaker 1: the people I Zora Mandani brought in his family, brought 186 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:24,000 Speaker 1: in the families of people who believe in socialism that 187 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,599 Speaker 1: were elected across the country last night in places like 188 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:30,199 Speaker 1: Saint Paul, almost in Minneapolis. But we'll see if that 189 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 1: election holds out later on. But in all these elections, 190 00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 1: the far left, a lot of them were bolstered by 191 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,559 Speaker 1: the mass immigration of the Third World in our country 192 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:45,199 Speaker 1: who fundamentally believe in socialism. And I don't I think that. 193 00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:47,599 Speaker 1: I think that Republicans need to have a moment and 194 00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: a reflection over what the economy looks like right now, 195 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,480 Speaker 1: what the state of our immigration has done done to 196 00:11:55,559 --> 00:12:01,960 Speaker 1: us in our country, and really make an important pivot. 197 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 1: At the same time, it was a wave year right, 198 00:12:05,880 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: it was a wave year in overwhelmingly blue states. Don't 199 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: set your hair on fire. I always say to candidates, 200 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: if you lose by one vote, you should spend the 201 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:18,000 Speaker 1: entire next six months thinking about how you didn't campaign 202 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:19,679 Speaker 1: hard enough. If you lose by a million votes, it 203 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:22,359 Speaker 1: wasn't about you. And for a lot of these Republicans 204 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: it wasn't about them. There was nothing that they could 205 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 1: done to win, just like there was a lot of Democrats. 206 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:28,559 Speaker 1: There was nothing they could have done to win in 207 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 1: twenty ten or in twenty fourteen, just like for a 208 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:32,599 Speaker 1: lot of Republicans, and nothing they could have done to 209 00:12:32,640 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 1: win twenty oh six or twenty oh eight. Waveyears are 210 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: wave years for a reason. And I think what we 211 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:41,480 Speaker 1: are the most interesting thing that we are seeing is 212 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: if you go through our trajectory, twenty twenty five being 213 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: a wave year, twenty twenty four being basically a wave year, 214 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two not being a wave year that was 215 00:12:51,800 --> 00:12:54,680 Speaker 1: the one exception, but twenty twenty being a waved, twenty 216 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: eighteen being a wave, twenty sixteen being a wave, twenty 217 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 1: fourteen being a wave. The American public for the last 218 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:05,000 Speaker 1: decade is overwhelmingly frustrated with how things are working out, 219 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: and they are just going to the next shiny object 220 00:13:11,480 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: who can sit there and make the economy work for them, 221 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: to make the economy work with their kids, and we'll 222 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:20,959 Speaker 1: see how this all shakes up. I don't think that 223 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 1: it's that bad because you cannot control for a wave. 224 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: And if you ran for office last night and you lost, 225 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:29,599 Speaker 1: I know that that's bruising, but just know it was 226 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,599 Speaker 1: probably nothing that you could do. It was probably the 227 00:13:31,720 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 1: year that it was in, and Republicans have a year 228 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,760 Speaker 1: to make some serious changes in order to avoid a 229 00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:40,960 Speaker 1: catastrophe in the mid terms. With me, coming up next 230 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,400 Speaker 1: is my friend Zachary Danini. He's going to go over 231 00:13:43,480 --> 00:13:45,320 Speaker 1: the data from New York City and show us if 232 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,480 Speaker 1: there's any lessons that we can learn for the nation 233 00:13:47,600 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 1: as a whole from Mandani's win. That's gonna be up 234 00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:57,000 Speaker 1: next with me on today's episode is data Scientists. One 235 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 1: of my therap people on Twitter, Zachary Danini, Thank you 236 00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: for being here, so zach, your coverage of the New 237 00:14:02,240 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 1: York mayor's race is better than almost anybody else's on 238 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 1: social media. Thank you what surprised you because you said 239 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 1: for a while. He was definitely winning, he was winning 240 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:13,439 Speaker 1: a majority. What if anything surprised you, Yeah, I think 241 00:14:13,480 --> 00:14:16,319 Speaker 1: the number one thing that surprised me was that the 242 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: Republicans really, really, really rallied around Cuomo. Right, I think 243 00:14:20,040 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: Curtis Sleewah is going. 244 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 2: To end up with about seven percent of the vote 245 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 2: in polling, he was at fifteen or sixteen for a while. 246 00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:32,440 Speaker 2: The Trump endorsement, I think of Cuomo def definitely helped, right, 247 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 2: because I think Sleewah was at ten or eleven in 248 00:14:35,720 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 2: the early vote and then fell down. He was at 249 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 2: maybe I think six or five and a half in 250 00:14:40,160 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 2: the election day vote. So the Trump endorsement helped a lot. 251 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 2: But yeah, even in that early vote, I think, you know, 252 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:49,760 Speaker 2: a lot of Republicans had the thought process that they 253 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 2: liked Sleewaw more than Quomo. They answered in polling they 254 00:14:53,040 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 2: were going to support Sliwah, and then they came out 255 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: probably held their nose and voted for for Cuomo. 256 00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 1: Yeah. I can tell you anecdote as a New Yorker 257 00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: my whole life, I know probably seven people, seven Republicans 258 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: that stayed with Sliway. But they had made their decision 259 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 1: a long time ago, and they probably all the most. 260 00:15:11,080 --> 00:15:12,920 Speaker 1: They were voting for Sleewa, but they were voting for Cuomo. 261 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 1: What surprised me is is that a lot of people 262 00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: and a lot of people online especially said CMO needs 263 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: these Bronx, Hispanics, Blacks out of burrows to go vote, 264 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: and in the end he lost them. He lost the 265 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 1: establishment Democrat voter Tondanni. Had he had those voters, he 266 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:36,000 Speaker 1: would have beaten Mendonni. Yeah. 267 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 2: If he did how he did with block voters and 268 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 2: Dominican voters in the primary, I think, yeah, he would 269 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 2: have would have been really close with Mom Donnie. 270 00:15:44,880 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 1: It would have been it would have been especially close 271 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: because in the end and in southern Brooklyn, right, it 272 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: was in Brooklyn and the Bronx where his numbers fell 273 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:55,520 Speaker 1: apart and the should and it was almost like the 274 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg coalition very much, because he did far better in 275 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: Manhattan than I thought he was going to Yah. His 276 00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:05,680 Speaker 1: numbers of Manhattan are very strong, and I think that 277 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: what their lesson is for as a political consultant, what 278 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: my lesson is is that these types of voters will 279 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: always vote with the establishment Democrat, even when you are 280 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 1: They'll vote for the Democrat even when you have a 281 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: socialist maybe yeah, yeah. 282 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:32,160 Speaker 2: So I think that the D next to Mam Donnie's name, right, 283 00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 2: that that first column is really really valuable with with 284 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 2: black voters in New York City and across the country, 285 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:40,680 Speaker 2: right right, I mean Cuomo was the establishment D in 286 00:16:40,720 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 2: the primary. 287 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: Black voters broke for Cuomo. 288 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 2: Then Mamdonni won the primary, got the D next to 289 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,600 Speaker 2: his name for the general election, and I think Black 290 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 2: voters really basically kind of respected that and and back 291 00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 2: their nominee. What this reminds me of is oftentimes you 292 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 2: get these elections where you may be a special election 293 00:17:01,320 --> 00:17:03,760 Speaker 2: and then you have a rematch in a general election. 294 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,960 Speaker 2: And what often happens is the person who wins this 295 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 2: special election will win the general election by much much more, 296 00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 2: maybe something like five or six months later, because just 297 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 2: being that incumbent winning the first time getting the D 298 00:17:17,520 --> 00:17:22,000 Speaker 2: next to the name, the Democratic establishment voters who maybe 299 00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 2: vote a little bit less based on ideology and more 300 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 2: on party loyalty, respect that. 301 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: Right. And also what tells me from a national point 302 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:34,959 Speaker 1: is is that you know, if AOC runs for president, 303 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: which who knows if she's going to, but let's say 304 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 1: she does, you know, it's the black vote in South 305 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 1: Carolina and the Deep South and Super Tuesday states that 306 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 1: will stop her, right, they will not support her very 307 00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: likely your weakest demographic right, but they will then turn 308 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: around and support her overwhelmingly in a in a general 309 00:17:54,800 --> 00:17:59,080 Speaker 1: elections mean very little light on it going into and 310 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,760 Speaker 1: also by the thing, the Asian vote voted for. 311 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,400 Speaker 2: So Mom Donnie did really well in South Asian areas, 312 00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 2: but East Asian areas like Flushing and then in Southwest 313 00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:15,640 Speaker 2: Brookland were Cuomo one and those were areas Cuomo flipped 314 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,000 Speaker 2: from the primary, and Mom Donnie did did well with 315 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,920 Speaker 2: the East Asian voters that are still in the Demogracratic coalition. 316 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 2: I think Nate Cohne had a really nice analysis about 317 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 2: how the vast, vast majority of voters in that June 318 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 2: primary were Harris voters, not Trump voters, but when you 319 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 2: added Trump voting Asians to the mix, which those areas 320 00:18:36,080 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: shifted as hard right as almost anywhere in the country 321 00:18:39,440 --> 00:18:42,000 Speaker 2: last November, Cuomo kept those voters. 322 00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:46,320 Speaker 1: I think that when you extrapolate from I know you 323 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,239 Speaker 1: foot focused primarily on New York, when you look at 324 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,960 Speaker 1: New Jersey and Virginia and other races are out most 325 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,200 Speaker 1: of the country. I mean, Democrats had a great night. 326 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:59,960 Speaker 1: I think that it's part of I think that part, 327 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:04,360 Speaker 1: part of what Mandani's wave was was just the overall 328 00:19:04,440 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: wave happening in the nation towards the Democrats. Yeah, and 329 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 1: I know you don't give up opinion about this, but 330 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,520 Speaker 1: what was your If you look at my Latino vote specifically, 331 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 1: which is a lot of focus on it, they definitely 332 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 1: shifted left. But in some parts, especially in New Jersey 333 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: where has been looked at, they did not shift as 334 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:28,680 Speaker 1: left as they had pre twenty twenty. Yes, so they 335 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,960 Speaker 1: were not back to pre twenty tine numbers. Is that 336 00:19:31,040 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: an accurate statement to saying. 337 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I think so. So again, I'm getting my 338 00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 2: hands on a lot of precinct data today. I think 339 00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 2: I'm going to be able to dive into it tonight 340 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 2: and tomorrow and publish more, you know, thought out analyses. 341 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 2: But from the anecdotal stuff I've been seeing online, yeah, 342 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,200 Speaker 2: we're talking about thirty point swings to the to the 343 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 2: left towards Democrats from twenty twenty four. It looks like 344 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: in a lot of North Jersey Hispanic areas, but a 345 00:19:57,280 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 2: lot of those areas, especially Dominican ones where you know 346 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 2: forty or fifty point swings to the right. So that's 347 00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 2: I think going to be the big question heading forward 348 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 2: in national politics. Is Trump proved that there is a 349 00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,000 Speaker 2: Republican candidate who can really really compete and generally, I 350 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 2: would say, narrowly lose Hispanic voters in a place like 351 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,280 Speaker 2: North Jersey and win them in Texas. And it looks 352 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,199 Speaker 2: and you know, there's gonna be downballot lag They're going 353 00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,760 Speaker 2: to stick with the Democratic Party in some elections, but 354 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 2: come twenty twenty eight, I have no idea what North 355 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:31,480 Speaker 2: Jersey Hispanics will look like in the presidential election. 356 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: So how much does how much does the youth turnout 357 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:40,320 Speaker 1: matter for the mayoral election for Mendanni? I mean, obviously 358 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 1: was basically you tracked a big part portion of it. 359 00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,520 Speaker 1: And is it just that his message and his social 360 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,480 Speaker 1: media presence, which is very, very important, His social media 361 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 1: was so exciting rather than the fact that they're all 362 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: socialists now. 363 00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,040 Speaker 2: So I think, first of all, we're talking about you know, 364 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 2: eighteen forty nine year old voters in New York City 365 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,359 Speaker 2: are are probably substantially substantially more socialists than you know, 366 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,640 Speaker 2: the country as a whole. The you know, this isn't 367 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 2: anything new, right. The DSA has been you know, extremely 368 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: strong in New York. They have a lot of boots 369 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:15,240 Speaker 2: on the ground. I think it's one of the cities 370 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: where they're strongest in the US. But anecdotally and through polling, 371 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 2: I can also tell you that a lot of the 372 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,040 Speaker 2: youth were coming out for Mom Donnie against Cuomo. 373 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:25,359 Speaker 1: Right. 374 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 2: I think people see Cuomo with the scandals, the you know, 375 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 2: sexual harassment issues, as you know, a Democratic party that 376 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,040 Speaker 2: they don't like, and Mom Donnie's a fresh face with 377 00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,480 Speaker 2: a great social media presence who I also think, you know, 378 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,359 Speaker 2: kind of you know, a lot of Democrats are talking 379 00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:45,680 Speaker 2: about the lessons they can learn from his campaign, and yeah, 380 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 2: one of those is the youth turnout was was pretty 381 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 2: striking and Mom Donnie really transformed the electorate in a 382 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 2: way I don't think we've seen candidates do other than 383 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:55,880 Speaker 2: Donald Trump in the last ten years. 384 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 1: What lesson is there for Republicans and all that, well, 385 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,239 Speaker 1: lesson is that Democrats. 386 00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 2: And so I think there's going to be a lot 387 00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 2: of discussion, you know, is Mom Donnie strong? 388 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 1: Is he? 389 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 2: And I think this election last Night does not give 390 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:14,240 Speaker 2: us a good data point on that. And my argument 391 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,160 Speaker 2: for why is that, you know, if if Bernie Sanders 392 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,440 Speaker 2: ran against Joe Manchin nationally with a D next to 393 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,600 Speaker 2: his name or something, the that's like a tough election 394 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 2: to part right because we usually talk about Democrats versus Republicans, 395 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 2: and in a Democrat versus Democrat general election, you know 396 00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: Cuomo's going to peel off a lot of those moderate Democrats. 397 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 2: And that's nothing that Mom Donnie is doing wrong, right, 398 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 2: because you know, a progressive Democrat running against a moderate 399 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:47,080 Speaker 2: Democrat is tough because the moderate Democrat should get Republicans 400 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,480 Speaker 2: and Democrats. 401 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,400 Speaker 1: On the flip side. Mom Donni had the D next 402 00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: to his name, and. 403 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 2: We talked about earlier about why you know that's very 404 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 2: good because you get the you know establishment, you know, 405 00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 2: Dominican and Black New Yorkers, you know coming home. 406 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 1: For you right. Well, Zachary, where can people go to 407 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,520 Speaker 1: remar with your stuff and all your things and your 408 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:06,159 Speaker 1: substack and Twitter and whatnot. 409 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,239 Speaker 2: Go to Zachary Danini on Twitter one word and then 410 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,400 Speaker 2: then my stub stack is at Zacharydanini dot com. 411 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,800 Speaker 1: Go check him out. It's so good he's so so smart. Zachary, 412 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:16,639 Speaker 1: thank you for being on. Yeah, thank you so much 413 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:21,880 Speaker 1: for having me on. Now it's time for the Ask 414 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 1: Me Anything segment of this podcast. If you want to 415 00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,040 Speaker 1: part of the Ask Me Anything segment, email me Ryan 416 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 1: at Numbers gamepodcast dot com. That's ryanat numbers Plural Game 417 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,000 Speaker 1: podcast dot com. I love these questions. I think it 418 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,840 Speaker 1: makes a really good show. Our first question comes from Jason. 419 00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 1: He's is there and says thank you that he loves 420 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:39,880 Speaker 1: the true crime content that I did in the last episode. 421 00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:41,919 Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Jason for listening to this podcast 422 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 1: or watch me on YouTube. I uh, maybe I will 423 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,439 Speaker 1: do a whole true crime episode around the holidays when 424 00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:50,440 Speaker 1: there's really not a lot of news going on and 425 00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: there's not a lot of data to sit there and 426 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,639 Speaker 1: pour over. But I really enjoy it. I love that 427 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,760 Speaker 1: kind of those kinds of stories, So I will definitely 428 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,000 Speaker 1: maybe do an episode or just a full Q and 429 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: a true crime stuff in the future. Next question comes 430 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 1: from David. Dave brother says, Hey, Ryan, can you do 431 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 1: an episode about why ninety percent of black people vote 432 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,880 Speaker 1: for Democrats? I don't know if it's a full episode, Dave, 433 00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 1: that could do it. Look, the black vote has been 434 00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,160 Speaker 1: not a completely monolithic vote, but it's been fairly monolithic 435 00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 1: basically since they had the right to vote. They were 436 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,359 Speaker 1: used to be Republican, now they're democrat. I think that 437 00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:30,399 Speaker 1: when you look at there's a lot of things going on. 438 00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:34,399 Speaker 1: There's part of it is, you know, the history of 439 00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: blacks in America, which has been one of immense suffering, 440 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: an immense amount of racism. And you know, even I 441 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 1: who thinks a lot of the DEI stuff is way overblown, 442 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 1: who thinks that a lot of the reparations conversations is 443 00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:52,360 Speaker 1: you know, deliriously stupid. You have to sit there any 444 00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 1: knowledge how bad blacks aded in this country. There was 445 00:24:54,640 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 1: genuine racism against them, and there becomes a mindset in 446 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:03,119 Speaker 1: the black community, especially about like we can all do 447 00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:06,240 Speaker 1: better together, and we can all we could all kind 448 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: of float together. All our ships can float together, all 449 00:25:08,600 --> 00:25:13,160 Speaker 1: our ships can sing together. When the black vote moved 450 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: in nineteen sixty four, I mean it was very coordinated 451 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,360 Speaker 1: by LBJ. LBJ knew when he passed the Civil Rights 452 00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: Act he'd have the blacks voting for the Democratic Party 453 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 1: for the next hundred years. He said it and he said, 454 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 1: explicitly using the N word. And I think that at 455 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 1: this point the reason that you're seeing some kind of 456 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:37,160 Speaker 1: transformation is a lot of the institutions in the black community, 457 00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:42,560 Speaker 1: the black church, black universities, that young blacks are not 458 00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,920 Speaker 1: as part of those institutions as they used to be. 459 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:50,320 Speaker 1: And also they are not parents at a young age 460 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: like they used to be. They're not teenage parents hardly 461 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:56,719 Speaker 1: at all anymore like they used to be. So now 462 00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,280 Speaker 1: that there's some independence from those institutions that kept them 463 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 1: as democrats, that's I think that that is an important reason. 464 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,399 Speaker 1: But yeah, the institutions kept them, kept them democrats. It 465 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 1: was reinforced over and over again. To be a good 466 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 1: black person was to be a Democrat, and they pulled 467 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,000 Speaker 1: the race in the card as frequently and as often 468 00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 1: as they possibly could. So that is uh, yeah, that's 469 00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 1: pretty much why maybe I'll have guests sit there on 470 00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,520 Speaker 1: top of the history of it and the few exceptions 471 00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:26,680 Speaker 1: to black to black candidates and black people and Republicans 472 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,480 Speaker 1: rather who did well with black candidates. My cockpy phenomenously 473 00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: well with black voters in Arkansas nineteen ninety eight. I 474 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:34,400 Speaker 1: think he got fifty percent. I think he's the only 475 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 1: Republican majority of the black vote in any state wide 476 00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:39,639 Speaker 1: office of the last three decades. But I have to 477 00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 1: check on that. Uh. But that's yeah, that's that's really 478 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:45,160 Speaker 1: the real reason why. And that is and maybe I'll 479 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,919 Speaker 1: do a full thing. Maybe I'll do a full episode 480 00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 1: of Republicans who won size on numbers of the black 481 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:54,040 Speaker 1: vote and how they did it, like Arnold Schwartzenegger, like uh, 482 00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: like my cockpy as I said, you know who didn't 483 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 1: was win some series. She did not do it. Nominating 484 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 1: a black Republican does not for any black boats. That 485 00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:04,000 Speaker 1: is the lesson from last night and many other times 486 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,520 Speaker 1: it has been tried. So thank you for listening to 487 00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: this podcast. I'll see you guys next Monday. Have a 488 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,959 Speaker 1: great weekend, don't despair, and if you like this podcast, 489 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,400 Speaker 1: please subscribe on YouTube or the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast, 490 00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. I'll talk to you guys 491 00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:17,400 Speaker 1: next week.