WEBVTT - Amazon Phone Ban Hampers Workers in Warehouse Collapse

0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm

0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.799
<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world to business and finance,

0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.640
<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all furnishing the power of Business

0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.119
<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.000
<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one twenty countries. You can download

0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.239
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.200
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

0:00:25.200 --> 0:00:27.760
<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us

0:00:27.760 --> 0:00:31.840
<v Speaker 1>on YouTube search Bloomberg clovel News. All right, so let's

0:00:32.120 --> 0:00:36.080
<v Speaker 1>talk about the latest when it comes to the coronavirus

0:00:36.360 --> 0:00:38.400
<v Speaker 1>and of course the pandemic. I should point out global

0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:41.200
<v Speaker 1>COVID cases passing two hundred seventy point two million deaths

0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:45.480
<v Speaker 1>topping five point three million. More than eight point shots

0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.479
<v Speaker 1>have been given out seventy point four Now, because that

0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:51.279
<v Speaker 1>was a couple of hours ago, was it? Okay? So

0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:53.800
<v Speaker 1>you just got the latest and I didn't realize, but

0:00:53.840 --> 0:00:55.880
<v Speaker 1>I had heard in a reminder that we've had more

0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:57.680
<v Speaker 1>COVID deaths in the United States this year than we

0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:00.040
<v Speaker 1>did last year, which to me was like shooting with

0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.800
<v Speaker 1>vaccines available. Um, Lucky for us, our team has gotten

0:01:02.880 --> 0:01:05.959
<v Speaker 1>Dr Michelle Longmyer. She's chief executive officer of MEDABAL. She's

0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:08.720
<v Speaker 1>with us on the phone from Palo Alto, California. Hey,

0:01:08.800 --> 0:01:11.880
<v Speaker 1>Dr Longmeyer. Uh so let's talk about it. I think

0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:13.880
<v Speaker 1>it's about a year or so ago that we caught

0:01:13.959 --> 0:01:17.440
<v Speaker 1>up with you. Um, what's what's new in your orbit?

0:01:17.600 --> 0:01:20.199
<v Speaker 1>What lasting changes do you think are going to stay

0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:24.440
<v Speaker 1>with us post pandemic as a result, you know, I

0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:27.840
<v Speaker 1>think everyone is thinking about not only vaccination, right, but

0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.040
<v Speaker 1>boosters were We definitely are seeing the importance of the

0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:34.880
<v Speaker 1>booster shots with the omicron variant. And you know, I

0:01:34.880 --> 0:01:37.720
<v Speaker 1>think in our world where my company it takes part

0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.840
<v Speaker 1>in the development of vaccination or just you know, have

0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.720
<v Speaker 1>a very forward looking perspective on the importance of you know,

0:01:44.760 --> 0:01:47.200
<v Speaker 1>not only the vaccine, the tracing of the variants, and

0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:49.760
<v Speaker 1>then of course the importance of the booster shops. Help

0:01:49.800 --> 0:01:52.520
<v Speaker 1>us understand where things could be right now when it

0:01:52.520 --> 0:01:55.200
<v Speaker 1>comes to vaccines for every American. And again this is

0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.920
<v Speaker 1>my world, so I'm still waiting for those vaccines to

0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:00.240
<v Speaker 1>become available for for kids under five here in the US,

0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.480
<v Speaker 1>help us understand where clinical trials are and where they

0:02:02.520 --> 0:02:05.560
<v Speaker 1>still need to go. Yeah, I mean, it's very important

0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.639
<v Speaker 1>in the vaccine strategy that we really canvass you know,

0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:11.919
<v Speaker 1>the full population. As we see with a variant, anyone

0:02:11.960 --> 0:02:15.640
<v Speaker 1>who's not protected with immunity then becomes, you know, a

0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.760
<v Speaker 1>potential source of not only in section and sickness, but

0:02:18.880 --> 0:02:22.240
<v Speaker 1>also mutation of the virus itself. So, you know, in

0:02:22.280 --> 0:02:25.720
<v Speaker 1>the vaccine strategy, it's incredibly important that we're actually we

0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:27.520
<v Speaker 1>get to a point where we have the clinical data

0:02:27.840 --> 0:02:31.000
<v Speaker 1>to offer the vaccination to people of all ages. You know.

0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.799
<v Speaker 1>In parallel, it's very important that people get the vaccination

0:02:34.240 --> 0:02:36.760
<v Speaker 1>and then follow up with those booster shops because we're

0:02:36.760 --> 0:02:39.679
<v Speaker 1>seeing that the immunity offered by the booster shot is

0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.639
<v Speaker 1>likely extremely you know important when we look at these

0:02:42.760 --> 0:02:46.360
<v Speaker 1>variants where the original vaccination was developed against a slightly

0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:50.840
<v Speaker 1>different strain. Are we and just kind of about uh,

0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:53.560
<v Speaker 1>just kind of about forty seconds left here, um in

0:02:53.680 --> 0:02:56.840
<v Speaker 1>terms of clinical trials, are we all kind of in

0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.280
<v Speaker 1>a clinical trial right now? By taking that third booster

0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.680
<v Speaker 1>shot when it kind to we'll see how effective it

0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:05.800
<v Speaker 1>is against a Macron. Well, it's an interesting question. Certainly,

0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:09.480
<v Speaker 1>we are tracking the efficacy of the booster to this variant,

0:03:09.840 --> 0:03:12.840
<v Speaker 1>and it's something that all vaccine manufacturers and the overall

0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:15.919
<v Speaker 1>clinical trial industry is looking at um and something will

0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:18.120
<v Speaker 1>continue to track. All right, We're gonna leave it on

0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:20.000
<v Speaker 1>that note. So glad we were able to connect Dr

0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.160
<v Speaker 1>Michelle Longmier, she's chief executive officer at METABAL on the

0:03:23.200 --> 0:03:25.800
<v Speaker 1>phone from Palo Alto, California. You know, Tim, Tim, We

0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:27.679
<v Speaker 1>we know it's just we have to see how it

0:03:27.720 --> 0:03:29.320
<v Speaker 1>all plays out and we'll get a better idea of that.

0:03:29.360 --> 0:03:32.080
<v Speaker 1>Have an effective the boosters are essentially or whether or

0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.280
<v Speaker 1>not we're gonna need a whole new booster again question

0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:38.400
<v Speaker 1>by the way, Yeah, it's like, wait a second, kind

0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:41.400
<v Speaker 1>of aren't we No, I mean we've we've been all

0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.120
<v Speaker 1>part of this grand experiment, like, you know, working it

0:03:44.160 --> 0:03:48.200
<v Speaker 1>out together. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer

0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:52.760
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. The

0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.080
<v Speaker 1>nation continuing the damage to really kind of work their

0:03:56.080 --> 0:03:58.640
<v Speaker 1>way through, uh, dealing with the damage and loss caused

0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:02.120
<v Speaker 1>by that historical and catastrophic group of tornadoes. That moved

0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:04.160
<v Speaker 1>across the broad section of the country this weekend in

0:04:04.200 --> 0:04:06.640
<v Speaker 1>a so if that's at times was as wide as

0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:08.760
<v Speaker 1>three quarters of a mile. I mean, I've seen the footage.

0:04:08.800 --> 0:04:11.320
<v Speaker 1>I've looked at a lot of the cover. It's just remarkable, Tim,

0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:15.680
<v Speaker 1>how much and unfortunate how much was impacted as a result.

0:04:15.800 --> 0:04:18.760
<v Speaker 1>It included a tragedy at an Amazon warehouse. And on

0:04:18.800 --> 0:04:21.200
<v Speaker 1>Saturday night, this story caught my eye. It was by

0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:23.760
<v Speaker 1>our own Spencer Soaper, technology and e commerce reporter for

0:04:23.839 --> 0:04:27.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. He joins us now on the phone from Seattle. Spencer,

0:04:27.160 --> 0:04:29.360
<v Speaker 1>before seeing the story, I didn't know that Amazon had

0:04:29.360 --> 0:04:32.160
<v Speaker 1>any sort of policy when it came to having phones

0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:35.560
<v Speaker 1>on people who work in these fulfillment centers. Bring us

0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:39.360
<v Speaker 1>up to speed on on why now the deadly collapse

0:04:39.440 --> 0:04:41.839
<v Speaker 1>at this Amazon warehouse is putting the spotlight on the

0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:45.719
<v Speaker 1>phone band. Okay, yeah, so the phone band goes back

0:04:45.880 --> 0:04:50.440
<v Speaker 1>years and before the pandemic hit. Uh, employees will be

0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:53.560
<v Speaker 1>required to leave their phones in their cars or leave

0:04:53.600 --> 0:04:56.440
<v Speaker 1>them in lockers at the facilities, you know, before checking

0:04:56.480 --> 0:05:01.320
<v Speaker 1>in and going through security. And Amazon relaxed those rules, um,

0:05:01.360 --> 0:05:03.839
<v Speaker 1>you know, because of the pandemic and just the you know,

0:05:03.880 --> 0:05:07.200
<v Speaker 1>the need for people to see alerts and keep in

0:05:07.279 --> 0:05:10.120
<v Speaker 1>contact with loved ones and that sort of thing. UM.

0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:13.400
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, Amazon has been hinting this year

0:05:13.440 --> 0:05:18.320
<v Speaker 1>that they would return UM to this phone band potentially

0:05:18.360 --> 0:05:20.800
<v Speaker 1>at the turn of the year in some places were

0:05:20.839 --> 0:05:24.120
<v Speaker 1>actually some facilities were actually returning to it a little

0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.880
<v Speaker 1>bit earlier than that, just kind of feeling employees out

0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:30.800
<v Speaker 1>on how they'd react. And so obviously after this tornado

0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:35.039
<v Speaker 1>hits UM, people are you know, very keen to have

0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:37.680
<v Speaker 1>their have their phones with them. It's it's something that

0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:41.799
<v Speaker 1>I think many workers want anyway, for a variety of reasons.

0:05:41.839 --> 0:05:45.039
<v Speaker 1>You have kids in daycare or school, you have loved

0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:47.680
<v Speaker 1>ones who have an emergency and might need to contact you.

0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:52.680
<v Speaker 1>But this this uh tornado that collapsed the facility and

0:05:52.839 --> 0:05:56.159
<v Speaker 1>UM in Illinois and killed six people, it just really

0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:01.400
<v Speaker 1>really reinvigorated this. This conversation made me think, too, Spencer,

0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.200
<v Speaker 1>that I think years ago there was a point where

0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:06.880
<v Speaker 1>if you had a cell phone, you wouldn't just pull

0:06:06.920 --> 0:06:09.200
<v Speaker 1>it out in a meeting and like look at what

0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:13.680
<v Speaker 1>was on it, or excuse yourself from a conference room

0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.080
<v Speaker 1>meeting to take a call. And things have certainly changed

0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:20.400
<v Speaker 1>in offices where I see people I've done it like you,

0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:22.919
<v Speaker 1>It's just like we've moved to a different level. Like

0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.400
<v Speaker 1>you have your phone on with you at all times,

0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:30.960
<v Speaker 1>but in warehouses and factories and distribution centers, like, it's

0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:33.880
<v Speaker 1>a realization that that's not necessarily the case for a

0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:37.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of workers. Yeah, and and there has to be

0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:42.000
<v Speaker 1>some differentiation, right, There's a difference between having a device

0:06:42.040 --> 0:06:44.200
<v Speaker 1>in your pocket that kind of a lurkes you to

0:06:44.240 --> 0:06:47.359
<v Speaker 1>an emergency, and there's and there's also a danger of

0:06:47.760 --> 0:06:51.960
<v Speaker 1>wandering an industrial work area with your phone in front

0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:55.320
<v Speaker 1>of you watching Instagram or TikTok, you know. So, um,

0:06:55.400 --> 0:06:58.360
<v Speaker 1>they definitely need rules around these things. But I think

0:06:58.400 --> 0:07:00.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of employees and particularly would come be like Amazon,

0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:03.839
<v Speaker 1>which you know, wants to deliver wants to customers. First,

0:07:04.240 --> 0:07:06.799
<v Speaker 1>there's not a lot of trust. You're in this huge

0:07:06.839 --> 0:07:09.600
<v Speaker 1>facility there, you like, we don't have access to a

0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.640
<v Speaker 1>window or anything or cancer what's going on outside. People

0:07:12.680 --> 0:07:17.080
<v Speaker 1>would prefer to have access to information about you know,

0:07:17.120 --> 0:07:20.120
<v Speaker 1>extreme weather events themselves without having to go through some

0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.760
<v Speaker 1>kind of Amazon filter and without being isolated from it. Right.

0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:25.400
<v Speaker 1>I think about how the times you've been in I

0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:26.960
<v Speaker 1>know we've been in a news room, right Tim and

0:07:27.240 --> 0:07:29.280
<v Speaker 1>send your phone goes off on some kind of weather alert.

0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:33.760
<v Speaker 1>Are some concerns, yeah, he Spencer. I'm wondering if this band,

0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:35.960
<v Speaker 1>if it goes to smart watches as well, because one

0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.480
<v Speaker 1>thing anecdotally that I've noticed, especially for for people who

0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.160
<v Speaker 1>work in situations where they're not really supposed to have

0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:45.239
<v Speaker 1>their phones on them, is that they've resorted to smart watches.

0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.600
<v Speaker 1>And increasingly we've seen the smart watches be able to

0:07:47.640 --> 0:07:50.800
<v Speaker 1>correct connect on their own to cellular right, you don't

0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:53.160
<v Speaker 1>need to have WiFi for it. Are those band as

0:07:53.160 --> 0:07:56.120
<v Speaker 1>well or have where those band during the band? I'm

0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:58.040
<v Speaker 1>not clear about that, but definitely there have been a

0:07:58.080 --> 0:08:01.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of people talking about investing in those devices. Um,

0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:04.920
<v Speaker 1>you know where Amazon employees if this band is to

0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:08.200
<v Speaker 1>is to come back and uh so, yeah, I imagine

0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:11.800
<v Speaker 1>it could be a tricky thing to to enforce. So

0:08:12.000 --> 0:08:18.080
<v Speaker 1>is Amazon gonna do anything differently? No idea, um um,

0:08:18.080 --> 0:08:21.720
<v Speaker 1>trying to hear more from them, you know. Least I

0:08:21.720 --> 0:08:24.760
<v Speaker 1>saw was that this band would this band would come

0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:27.640
<v Speaker 1>back into effect in December, but with with the COVID

0:08:27.720 --> 0:08:30.280
<v Speaker 1>and new variants emerging, who knows if that gets kicked

0:08:30.280 --> 0:08:31.880
<v Speaker 1>down the line again, and who knows if this is

0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:34.120
<v Speaker 1>the kind of incident that gets them to rethink it entirely.

0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.360
<v Speaker 1>Because there are also some like school, some workplace shootings

0:08:37.360 --> 0:08:39.440
<v Speaker 1>and things. There was a big shooting and the FedEx

0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:43.520
<v Speaker 1>facility recently that got them talking about cell phones as well.

0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:45.440
<v Speaker 1>So this is a kind of the kind of event

0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:49.000
<v Speaker 1>that could encourage an employer to do things differently. What

0:08:49.040 --> 0:08:58.280
<v Speaker 1>about other employers, Yeah, um, I don't I didn't do

0:08:58.320 --> 0:09:01.320
<v Speaker 1>a survey of every employer in the in the country,

0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:03.320
<v Speaker 1>but there are places that don't allow them. But also,

0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:06.600
<v Speaker 1>like I said, there's a difference between having a phone

0:09:06.720 --> 0:09:10.080
<v Speaker 1>with you at work and having your phone out in

0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:12.920
<v Speaker 1>front of you and not paying attention when when it's

0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.000
<v Speaker 1>a safety risk. So I think that's the conversation that's

0:09:16.000 --> 0:09:18.600
<v Speaker 1>going to be happening now. And companies also may ban

0:09:18.720 --> 0:09:22.560
<v Speaker 1>them for sake for um uh, to protect sensitive information,

0:09:22.679 --> 0:09:24.840
<v Speaker 1>that sort of thing. So there's just all kinds of

0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:28.400
<v Speaker 1>layers and reasons to do things. But in this particular situation,

0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:32.200
<v Speaker 1>employees are saying, you know what, these devices can be lifesavers.

0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:33.839
<v Speaker 1>I want to have it with me. Spencer just in

0:09:33.840 --> 0:09:35.880
<v Speaker 1>the last thirty seconds that we have with you. M

0:09:36.160 --> 0:09:38.520
<v Speaker 1>Right before you came on, you published a story about

0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:41.480
<v Speaker 1>that the warehouse claps is being investigated by OSHA. What

0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:45.480
<v Speaker 1>are we looking for? What are you following here? Well,

0:09:46.160 --> 0:09:50.280
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty um expected that OSHA will investigate. We had

0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.040
<v Speaker 1>six people die at a workplace, so and it's gonna

0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:55.280
<v Speaker 1>they have up to six months. So imagine they're just

0:09:55.320 --> 0:09:57.040
<v Speaker 1>going to try to see what kind of safety protocols

0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.280
<v Speaker 1>they had in place and that sort of thing. Was

0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:02.960
<v Speaker 1>Amazon doing drills for this type of behavior? Um? But again,

0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.440
<v Speaker 1>OSHA's rules are pretty soft. You know a lot of

0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:09.280
<v Speaker 1>things that they recommend employers do or just recommendations, and

0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:11.560
<v Speaker 1>so there's no penalty for not doing them. So I

0:10:11.600 --> 0:10:14.800
<v Speaker 1>am kind of curious to see what takes up. All right, Spencer,

0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:17.120
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much, Bloomberg News Technology and e Commerce

0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.680
<v Speaker 1>for Porter Spencer Sober Sober that is joining us from

0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:25.200
<v Speaker 1>our Seattle bureau. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:30.640
<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:33.120
<v Speaker 1>it's not been easy running a restaurant during COVID. We

0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:35.920
<v Speaker 1>all know that, right, But for one dining establishment in

0:10:35.920 --> 0:10:38.280
<v Speaker 1>New York City surviving COVID took it to becoming more

0:10:38.280 --> 0:10:40.760
<v Speaker 1>profitable than ever. Tim It's a great story. It is

0:10:40.800 --> 0:10:44.520
<v Speaker 1>a great story, and it's right Joshua Brewstein, Technology editor

0:10:44.520 --> 0:10:47.400
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg business Week. Joshua story is featured in the

0:10:47.480 --> 0:10:49.640
<v Speaker 1>upcoming issue of Bloomberg business Week magazine. You can read

0:10:49.679 --> 0:10:51.760
<v Speaker 1>it now on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com

0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.200
<v Speaker 1>slash business Week. Joshua joins us now also joining us

0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:56.719
<v Speaker 1>as Joel Weber, Editor at Bloomberg business Week. He's with

0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.440
<v Speaker 1>us in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio as well. Twenty

0:11:00.440 --> 0:11:04.360
<v Speaker 1>five dollar an hour minimum wage, No outdoor seating, uh,

0:11:04.480 --> 0:11:07.440
<v Speaker 1>no tipping, uh. The list of things that makes dirt

0:11:07.480 --> 0:11:09.960
<v Speaker 1>Candy in the Lower east Side unique, Joel, it continues

0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:13.240
<v Speaker 1>to go on. Well, the the outdoor seating is actually

0:11:13.240 --> 0:11:15.679
<v Speaker 1>part of that part of that story because when when

0:11:15.760 --> 0:11:18.280
<v Speaker 1>josh first pitched this story, it was sort of like,

0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.000
<v Speaker 1>look like every restaurant, especially New York like kind of

0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:26.400
<v Speaker 1>the Kingdom of of restaurants, um is going through something

0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.560
<v Speaker 1>right now, and and can we use dirt Candy as

0:11:29.600 --> 0:11:33.560
<v Speaker 1>a vehicle to to basically right along and see what

0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:37.800
<v Speaker 1>this is like for for chefs, the employees, everything, and

0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:40.240
<v Speaker 1>and it ended up being sort of this amazing look

0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:44.680
<v Speaker 1>under the hood in the in the kitchen, on the countertop, etcetera.

0:11:44.960 --> 0:11:47.800
<v Speaker 1>As Josh followed it for months. And you know, I

0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.680
<v Speaker 1>think that outdoor seating thing is part of it. And

0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.280
<v Speaker 1>it's the opening anecdote, which is like a lot of

0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.080
<v Speaker 1>these restaurants have those sheds. They came in handy for

0:11:55.120 --> 0:11:56.959
<v Speaker 1>a while, and even when it's cold like now and

0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.760
<v Speaker 1>nobody's really using them, although maybe starting to trickle through,

0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:03.800
<v Speaker 1>you quite fair to bring them tear them down yet. Um.

0:12:03.840 --> 0:12:05.680
<v Speaker 1>And what's amazing about the story is you know that

0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:07.760
<v Speaker 1>that sort of is an embodiment of it. But there

0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:12.400
<v Speaker 1>have been many things that have pushed restaurants as entrepreneurs

0:12:12.440 --> 0:12:15.000
<v Speaker 1>and these chefs to like come up with a new

0:12:15.040 --> 0:12:18.400
<v Speaker 1>way of doing things, and believe it or not, despite everything,

0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:21.320
<v Speaker 1>Dirt Kenny is more profitable than ever. How have they

0:12:21.360 --> 0:12:24.800
<v Speaker 1>done it? Josh? Yeah, I mean it's interesting because, as

0:12:24.840 --> 0:12:28.319
<v Speaker 1>you said, Um, Dirt Candy did a couple of things

0:12:28.360 --> 0:12:31.000
<v Speaker 1>that would seem to make it harder to be um

0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.760
<v Speaker 1>to be more profitable. It raised wages which were already

0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:36.240
<v Speaker 1>pretty high for a restaurant. It was paying eighteen dollars

0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:39.679
<v Speaker 1>an hour before the pandemic UM and then had to

0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:43.600
<v Speaker 1>lay off its entire staff in March. And when they

0:12:43.679 --> 0:12:47.360
<v Speaker 1>reopened UM in May of this year, they came back

0:12:47.400 --> 0:12:50.520
<v Speaker 1>with twenty five dollars um for the opening for the

0:12:50.559 --> 0:12:55.480
<v Speaker 1>opening wage, uh, including health benefits, which is pretty much

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.360
<v Speaker 1>unheard of in the restaurant industry. That was a that

0:12:58.360 --> 0:13:00.400
<v Speaker 1>would ended up being an advantage. Are one of the

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 1>key challenges that restaurants are having right now, which is

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:06.600
<v Speaker 1>hiring people um. And the other thing. It was also

0:13:06.600 --> 0:13:09.439
<v Speaker 1>an advantage when they were laid off, right. Yeah, absolutely

0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:14.199
<v Speaker 1>when UM, when they laid people off in because their

0:13:14.240 --> 0:13:18.840
<v Speaker 1>wages were higher, Uh, the employees got higher unemployment checks,

0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:20.959
<v Speaker 1>which you know, wasn't a direct benefit to the restaurant,

0:13:20.960 --> 0:13:23.240
<v Speaker 1>but did make everyone feel a little bit better about

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:27.040
<v Speaker 1>what was, you know, an unbelievably bad situation. I was

0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.079
<v Speaker 1>particularly surprised that even with all those great benefits that

0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:33.280
<v Speaker 1>you don't typically associate with a job at a restaurant,

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:35.959
<v Speaker 1>she still had a really hard time getting people back

0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.640
<v Speaker 1>to work. Yeah, did you say two out of the

0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:41.160
<v Speaker 1>forty people? Am I getting that stat right, that's about right.

0:13:41.200 --> 0:13:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I think they had thirty five people before the pandemic.

0:13:43.800 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>They laid off about thirty of them and made this

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:49.320
<v Speaker 1>offer when they were going to rehire, Hey, you can

0:13:49.360 --> 0:13:51.319
<v Speaker 1>all come back. We're gonna give you these big races.

0:13:51.559 --> 0:13:53.560
<v Speaker 1>You'll be able to buy into health insurance. And only

0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.760
<v Speaker 1>two people came back, which I think really is a

0:13:56.800 --> 0:13:59.719
<v Speaker 1>testimony to how much people in the restaurant industry just

0:13:59.760 --> 0:14:02.200
<v Speaker 1>don't around anywhere very long. If you let someone in

0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 1>your restaurant like leave at the end of the shift,

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.560
<v Speaker 1>Amanda saying, like, you know, chances are that they might

0:14:06.600 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 1>not come back, coach, So they're just a lot of movement. Um.

0:14:09.960 --> 0:14:11.640
<v Speaker 1>She one thing she was able to do was get

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.120
<v Speaker 1>new people in the door faster than I think some

0:14:14.200 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 1>of her competitors were, just because you know, you pay

0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:19.480
<v Speaker 1>people more money, they're more likely to show up. So actually,

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:21.800
<v Speaker 1>let's just you know, talk about dirt candy in in

0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 1>a bigger sense, which is, you know, this is uh

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.880
<v Speaker 1>revered restaurant among vegetarians. Right, So what has she done

0:14:27.880 --> 0:14:31.560
<v Speaker 1>with the menu during this time? Yeah, So one thing

0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>that she did with the menu, and this was something

0:14:33.720 --> 0:14:38.400
<v Speaker 1>that Amanda said was difficult for her to um to stomach. Basically,

0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.400
<v Speaker 1>was she really paired it down? She simplified it dirt.

0:14:42.440 --> 0:14:44.720
<v Speaker 1>Candy's a tasting menu, which means that you can only

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.760
<v Speaker 1>order one thing. It's a it's a five course tasting menu.

0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:50.440
<v Speaker 1>She used to have multiple tasting menus. But now you

0:14:50.520 --> 0:14:52.640
<v Speaker 1>go in and it's basically, as she put it, as

0:14:52.680 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 1>kind of like an admission. Uh, you know, you pay

0:14:55.320 --> 0:14:59.160
<v Speaker 1>the dollar and you get dinner, and it's a great dinner. Um,

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:01.320
<v Speaker 1>you're not gonna get to choose, you're not gonna be

0:15:01.320 --> 0:15:04.640
<v Speaker 1>able to substitute things. And that does a couple of things.

0:15:04.720 --> 0:15:07.160
<v Speaker 1>It allows her to cut way back on food waste

0:15:07.160 --> 0:15:10.160
<v Speaker 1>because she's able to meticulously plan how much she's going

0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.000
<v Speaker 1>to need. And I was surprised at how much of

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 1>a difference that makes, and just the economics of a restaurant. Um.

0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.480
<v Speaker 1>The other thing it does is if you restaurants have

0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:23.040
<v Speaker 1>a problem typically where if they raise if they raise prices,

0:15:23.440 --> 0:15:26.120
<v Speaker 1>people order less. You know, if if you go in

0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.400
<v Speaker 1>and the entrees costs more, maybe you just don't order appetizers.

0:15:29.400 --> 0:15:31.480
<v Speaker 1>But if it's a tasting menu, you're kind of going

0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 1>in and you're either in or you're out, and so

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>that for her has worked. Can I just say she

0:15:36.040 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 1>get rid of tipping, which I talked about a lot,

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.560
<v Speaker 1>because I just gotten a point where I'm very happy

0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.280
<v Speaker 1>to tip people, but there's tip jars everywhere, and when

0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:46.440
<v Speaker 1>it comes to restaurant space in particular, I think, let's

0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 1>pay people a real wage um, which is an experiment

0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 1>that New York has flirted with before. Right. So the

0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:55.040
<v Speaker 1>fact that we've we've had ebbs and flows and now

0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:59.680
<v Speaker 1>it's back to somebody uh leaning into a different model, right, Yeah. Absolutely.

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean this was a previous question about restaurant labor.

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.400
<v Speaker 1>Amanda wasn't early was an early pioneer in going for

0:16:07.440 --> 0:16:09.480
<v Speaker 1>a service feed instead of tipping, and a lot of

0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 1>people who tried this, other other upscale dining establishments um

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:14.800
<v Speaker 1>gave up on it. But she's stuck with it, even

0:16:14.800 --> 0:16:17.480
<v Speaker 1>though she said it wasn't very good for her business

0:16:17.520 --> 0:16:19.960
<v Speaker 1>for quite some time, but it has. I think it

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 1>earns her some reputation and it does kind of add

0:16:22.720 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 1>to the the just the or of the restaurant, which

0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:26.000
<v Speaker 1>is how you get people in the door to a

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.120
<v Speaker 1>certain extent, So she able to make this work because

0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:31.640
<v Speaker 1>part of your story dives into the idea that she's

0:16:31.680 --> 0:16:34.600
<v Speaker 1>only been able to make this work through consulting fees.

0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.280
<v Speaker 1>And indeed, one time when you were in there talking

0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.440
<v Speaker 1>to her, she was actually working on a consulting project,

0:16:38.480 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 1>I think building a menu for a university. Um. Can

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:46.640
<v Speaker 1>she make this work? Yeah? So that that anecdote, UM,

0:16:46.880 --> 0:16:49.840
<v Speaker 1>was about halfway through my time there. I started spending

0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:53.720
<v Speaker 1>time there in the spring. Um. And but and you've

0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:56.920
<v Speaker 1>just been tell you a lot of everyone of the

0:16:56.960 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 1>same question for the story was when are you going

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:02.720
<v Speaker 1>to take me to the rest anyway? Forgive me good? Um?

0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.400
<v Speaker 1>And so at that point she was saying, it's really tough.

0:17:05.480 --> 0:17:07.080
<v Speaker 1>And by the fall she was like, you know, all

0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:09.960
<v Speaker 1>of a sudden, things are working, are working better. I'm

0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:12.320
<v Speaker 1>able to cut down. She's cutting down on labor costs

0:17:12.359 --> 0:17:15.040
<v Speaker 1>even though wages were up because she employed fewer people.

0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.800
<v Speaker 1>I'm saying with food, prices were up, but the quantity

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:19.920
<v Speaker 1>of food she was using was less, and she raised

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:23.160
<v Speaker 1>her prices. And everyone's been stuck inside and really wants

0:17:23.160 --> 0:17:24.919
<v Speaker 1>to go to a restaurant, so demand was way up.

0:17:26.080 --> 0:17:28.320
<v Speaker 1>So what are the remaining challenges that she's sort of

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:34.160
<v Speaker 1>obsessed with as we're looking at Macron, etcetera. What what

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:35.800
<v Speaker 1>what are the things on the horizon that she's still

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:37.960
<v Speaker 1>stressed about and just got about thirty seconds. Yeah, I

0:17:37.960 --> 0:17:41.479
<v Speaker 1>think the main thing with restaurants is uncertainty. Um, you know,

0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:43.280
<v Speaker 1>who knows what's going to happen with the next wave

0:17:43.280 --> 0:17:45.199
<v Speaker 1>of the pandemic. That's why Joel is you alluded to.

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:48.000
<v Speaker 1>She's uh, you know, doesn't really like the dining Shed,

0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:49.920
<v Speaker 1>but she won't tear it down because who knows what's

0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:54.480
<v Speaker 1>coming next. I like the Dining Shed, even even in

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:57.560
<v Speaker 1>December January. I just think they're great. I really like them.

0:17:57.600 --> 0:18:00.280
<v Speaker 1>All right, Um, thank you so much. And maybe in

0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.880
<v Speaker 1>the new year you'll take us to this restaurant you're invited, Okay,

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:04.679
<v Speaker 1>all right, we're gonna hold you to it. Joshua Brustin

0:18:04.760 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 1>these Technology editor Bloomberg Business Week here in our interactive

0:18:07.480 --> 0:18:10.199
<v Speaker 1>broker studio along with Till Webber, Editor Bloomberg Business Week.

0:18:10.240 --> 0:18:12.840
<v Speaker 1>Check out this story uh in the upcoming issue of

0:18:12.840 --> 0:18:15.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week magazine. It will be on newstands, online,

0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:19.240
<v Speaker 1>and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. This is Bloomberg

0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.920
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:27.440
<v Speaker 1>Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. This story is today's Bloomberg Big Take.

0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:30.240
<v Speaker 1>It's pretty incredible. The question on everyone's mind, what could

0:18:30.280 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 1>possibly go wrong with our economic global economic outlook, our

0:18:33.960 --> 0:18:37.679
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Economics team with the biggest economic risk for two

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:39.479
<v Speaker 1>and here to tell us about them, and there are

0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.880
<v Speaker 1>quite a few. Is Bloomberg Economics chief economis economist Tom

0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.120
<v Speaker 1>or Like He joins us on the phone from Washington. Hey, Tom,

0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:48.359
<v Speaker 1>good to have you here with Tim and myself. So

0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 1>this story pretty incredible. Um, there is quite a bunch

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:58.320
<v Speaker 1>of things that could go wrong in two Is that fair? Well?

0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:00.800
<v Speaker 1>I think if we look back at the experience of

0:19:00.840 --> 0:19:04.080
<v Speaker 1>the last two years, Carol, a lot has gone wrong,

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:11.240
<v Speaker 1>right from the virus to inflation, of flaring geopolitical tensions.

0:19:12.240 --> 0:19:14.800
<v Speaker 1>And I think for economists that means we just have

0:19:14.920 --> 0:19:18.720
<v Speaker 1>to be a bit humble about our capacity to look

0:19:18.760 --> 0:19:22.480
<v Speaker 1>into the future and pay much more attention to the

0:19:22.600 --> 0:19:27.399
<v Speaker 1>risks they're looking into. That means thinking about army cron

0:19:28.040 --> 0:19:32.240
<v Speaker 1>It means thinking about what happens if inflations is high,

0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:36.879
<v Speaker 1>can markets sustain a tightening head? And of course geopolitical

0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:42.000
<v Speaker 1>tensions from Russia, Ukraine to Taiwan, two elections everywhere from

0:19:42.040 --> 0:19:44.560
<v Speaker 1>France to Brazil. Tom, is it fair to say the

0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 1>biggest risk out of all those is is potentially new

0:19:47.680 --> 0:19:52.000
<v Speaker 1>variants and omicron. Yeah, that's right, and we're seeing from

0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:57.479
<v Speaker 1>the consequences of that already with the UK encouraging people

0:19:57.560 --> 0:20:02.359
<v Speaker 1>to work from home, masque restrictions in other parts of

0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:06.080
<v Speaker 1>the world. I think it's important to keep in mind though,

0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:10.440
<v Speaker 1>that there is a Goldilocks scenario for if it turns

0:20:10.480 --> 0:20:14.879
<v Speaker 1>out to be really contagious but not very deadly, then

0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 1>the world could get a low cost inoculation and that

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:22.080
<v Speaker 1>could be a trigger the things that get back to

0:20:22.240 --> 0:20:25.199
<v Speaker 1>some version of pre pandemic normal. This is exactly what

0:20:25.240 --> 0:20:27.680
<v Speaker 1>we talked about last Friday with dr Im las Bader

0:20:27.800 --> 0:20:30.200
<v Speaker 1>from n y U laying gown the idea that if

0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:33.879
<v Speaker 1>this is potentially you know, spreads more easily, but it

0:20:34.000 --> 0:20:37.480
<v Speaker 1>is less deadly and doesn't make us sick, then it

0:20:37.520 --> 0:20:42.200
<v Speaker 1>could be Okay. We just don't know that yet though. Yeah,

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.720
<v Speaker 1>it's still just too early to say. And right now,

0:20:44.760 --> 0:20:48.400
<v Speaker 1>of course, you hear the words new variant and immediate,

0:20:48.560 --> 0:20:52.040
<v Speaker 1>people's minds go to the worst case scenarios if this

0:20:52.160 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>does turn out to be like Delta or even worse

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:58.399
<v Speaker 1>than Delta, and we go into lockdowns again in the

0:20:58.440 --> 0:21:02.800
<v Speaker 1>first part of to and supply chain snile up again.

0:21:03.280 --> 0:21:06.320
<v Speaker 1>We're looking at lower growth, We're looking at higher inflation.

0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:10.440
<v Speaker 1>That's a very challenging environment, one where the FED, the

0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:15.040
<v Speaker 1>TB will not have easy answers. But at this point

0:21:15.280 --> 0:21:18.479
<v Speaker 1>it's really too early to make a definitive judgment, and

0:21:18.560 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 1>there is that sort of tantalizing possibility that this could

0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:26.919
<v Speaker 1>be more contagious, less deadly, and so actually part of

0:21:26.960 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the end game and the return to normal. Hey, Tom,

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:34.000
<v Speaker 1>how how did you guys kind of um theorize around

0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:37.399
<v Speaker 1>all the central banks? We know we've got what twenty

0:21:37.440 --> 0:21:42.080
<v Speaker 1>plus or so making moves or decisions this week. Um

0:21:42.200 --> 0:21:45.320
<v Speaker 1>what we might see in terms of maybe not coordinated

0:21:45.800 --> 0:21:50.120
<v Speaker 1>central bank policies around the globe, and how that disconnect

0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:54.520
<v Speaker 1>the problems that that could potentially cause. So I think

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:58.679
<v Speaker 1>one of the intriguing things looking into Carol is actually

0:21:58.720 --> 0:22:01.439
<v Speaker 1>we're going to have divert and policies for some of

0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:05.760
<v Speaker 1>the world's biggest central banks. The FED, we think is

0:22:05.800 --> 0:22:11.120
<v Speaker 1>now barreling towards an accelerated taper, opening the path potentially

0:22:11.520 --> 0:22:16.040
<v Speaker 1>to a first rate hike as early as March next year. Now,

0:22:16.320 --> 0:22:20.800
<v Speaker 1>historically the People's Bank of China followed the FED. If

0:22:20.800 --> 0:22:24.439
<v Speaker 1>the FED started hiking, the PBOC started hiking, and that

0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 1>was important for China and for the rest of Asia.

0:22:28.000 --> 0:22:31.600
<v Speaker 1>In two for the first time, we think they might

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 1>move in opposite directions. The FED starts to hike combating inflation.

0:22:37.240 --> 0:22:40.480
<v Speaker 1>China is more worried about stress from ever Grand and

0:22:40.560 --> 0:22:43.760
<v Speaker 1>the real estate slum, and that pushes the scent the

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:47.199
<v Speaker 1>People's Bank of China to start adding stimulus. If you've

0:22:47.240 --> 0:22:49.879
<v Speaker 1>got the two of the world's biggest central banks moving

0:22:49.920 --> 0:22:53.800
<v Speaker 1>in opposite directions, that's going to introduce some instant dynamics

0:22:53.840 --> 0:22:59.920
<v Speaker 1>into markets, into currencies, into economic trajectories. Yeah, I think

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.360
<v Speaker 1>will be interesting. I agree with you, like the two

0:23:02.359 --> 0:23:05.280
<v Speaker 1>behemoths when it comes to central banks and they're you know,

0:23:05.400 --> 0:23:10.680
<v Speaker 1>varying policies. What else Tom is on your radar? You know,

0:23:10.760 --> 0:23:15.480
<v Speaker 1>politics looms large parrel. We've got all the tensions between

0:23:15.560 --> 0:23:19.800
<v Speaker 1>Russia and Ukraine, and of course Europe, where energy prices

0:23:19.840 --> 0:23:23.119
<v Speaker 1>are already high and inflation is already high, relies on

0:23:23.280 --> 0:23:26.640
<v Speaker 1>Russia for a lot of its energy imports. If Russia

0:23:26.800 --> 0:23:30.600
<v Speaker 1>Ukraine bubbles over into something that looks like conflict and

0:23:30.640 --> 0:23:34.680
<v Speaker 1>that gas pipeline gets turned off, well that's bad news

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:37.240
<v Speaker 1>for Europe, bad news for the ECB in the Bank

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:41.919
<v Speaker 1>of England as they try and combat inflation. Taiwan is

0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:45.520
<v Speaker 1>a risk near the top of many people's worry lift.

0:23:45.960 --> 0:23:49.120
<v Speaker 1>In a worst case scenario, you get a conflict which

0:23:49.200 --> 0:23:52.639
<v Speaker 1>draws in the two world's two biggest powers, China and

0:23:52.640 --> 0:23:56.240
<v Speaker 1>the United States. But even something which stopped short of

0:23:56.320 --> 0:23:59.639
<v Speaker 1>that could be a blow for semiconductor production. And we

0:23:59.760 --> 0:24:03.719
<v Speaker 1>saw how bad that can be the ship. By the way,

0:24:03.760 --> 0:24:05.119
<v Speaker 1>there is some stuff about what could go right in

0:24:05.160 --> 0:24:07.040
<v Speaker 1>two and here as well, so check it out. On

0:24:07.040 --> 0:24:10.520
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal, you're always the glass huffle. I love

0:24:10.560 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 1>that about your tem or like chief economist of Bloomberg

0:24:12.760 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 1>Economics on the phone from Washington, d C. You're listening

0:24:15.720 --> 0:24:20.159
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. I'm roam. Yeah, I'll bet you

0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:22.600
<v Speaker 1>let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, this is

0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:28.960
<v Speaker 1>not a toy please, I'll do the riding gravels. I

0:24:29.040 --> 0:24:37.199
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. It's a good question. Drive. This is

0:24:37.240 --> 0:24:43.399
<v Speaker 1>the drive to the clothes down on Bloomberg Radio. All Right,

0:24:43.440 --> 0:24:46.200
<v Speaker 1>just about ten minutes left in today's trading session. We

0:24:46.280 --> 0:24:48.840
<v Speaker 1>are seeing the equity averages take another leg down. We're

0:24:48.840 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 1>off our worst levels of the session, but still uh.

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:54.520
<v Speaker 1>In these last few minutes of trading, we are seeing

0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:59.120
<v Speaker 1>investors more on the downside, more selling going into that

0:24:59.200 --> 0:25:02.280
<v Speaker 1>closing bell. So we'll continue to track that in the meantime.

0:25:02.440 --> 0:25:05.720
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to it. Jessica Biemer's portfolio manager at Easterly

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>Investment Partner, and she joins us on the phone from Pennsylvania. Jessica,

0:25:09.359 --> 0:25:11.439
<v Speaker 1>great to have you on the program today. How are you.

0:25:12.359 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well. It's a gorgeous day out here in

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:16.800
<v Speaker 1>western Pennsylvania. How are you, Tim, We're doing pretty well.

0:25:16.800 --> 0:25:18.560
<v Speaker 1>It's well. I mean I haven't been outside, to be honest,

0:25:18.640 --> 0:25:20.399
<v Speaker 1>I don't actually even know. It looks like it's getting

0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:25.520
<v Speaker 1>dark here. Enough, Jessica, talk a little bit about how

0:25:25.520 --> 0:25:28.159
<v Speaker 1>we need to sort of wait await the FED decision here,

0:25:28.200 --> 0:25:30.200
<v Speaker 1>because that certainly seems like what markets are doing. As

0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:32.320
<v Speaker 1>Carol I mentioned, we're seeing a leg lower in the

0:25:32.320 --> 0:25:34.640
<v Speaker 1>equity market, but look at the signal that that we're

0:25:34.640 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 1>seeing right now. Investors are waiting to hear from J. Powell. Certainly,

0:25:39.000 --> 0:25:40.760
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of focus on the FED this week,

0:25:40.800 --> 0:25:42.560
<v Speaker 1>and I think part of that comes from the fact

0:25:42.600 --> 0:25:46.400
<v Speaker 1>that companies are really entering a period of quiet as

0:25:46.400 --> 0:25:48.760
<v Speaker 1>we finished the end of the year. We do have

0:25:48.880 --> 0:25:52.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot more company analyst days this year than last year.

0:25:52.680 --> 0:25:55.640
<v Speaker 1>I think we have something like twenty seven analyst days

0:25:55.640 --> 0:25:58.199
<v Speaker 1>in the month of December. So there are companies that

0:25:58.240 --> 0:26:02.640
<v Speaker 1>are out there talking about two but really there isn't

0:26:02.800 --> 0:26:05.199
<v Speaker 1>much that companies can say as we wait for the

0:26:05.280 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 1>end of the year, and so a lot of the

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.280
<v Speaker 1>focus turns to the macro, and that turns to UM

0:26:10.320 --> 0:26:12.359
<v Speaker 1>certainly what the Fed's going to say this week, and

0:26:12.400 --> 0:26:16.520
<v Speaker 1>that's followed immediately by quadruple witching on Friday. So there's

0:26:16.520 --> 0:26:18.520
<v Speaker 1>going to be a lot more volume this week in

0:26:18.560 --> 0:26:21.359
<v Speaker 1>the options market and in the stock market UM. And

0:26:21.400 --> 0:26:23.520
<v Speaker 1>I think that's really going to be driven by the

0:26:23.560 --> 0:26:26.400
<v Speaker 1>macro at this point because companies are quiet. How much

0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:28.119
<v Speaker 1>profit taking do you think is going on at this

0:26:28.200 --> 0:26:31.440
<v Speaker 1>point that it's been aboutter year on many accounts. Certainly

0:26:31.440 --> 0:26:33.880
<v Speaker 1>if you're in the equity markets, uh, and at this point,

0:26:33.960 --> 0:26:35.399
<v Speaker 1>especially in some of those big tech names. Do you

0:26:35.480 --> 0:26:39.200
<v Speaker 1>just say, I'm good. Yeah. I think it's a fair question,

0:26:39.240 --> 0:26:41.200
<v Speaker 1>and it's something that we're going to be looking at

0:26:41.480 --> 0:26:44.200
<v Speaker 1>even into January, because a lot of investors aren't even

0:26:44.200 --> 0:26:47.920
<v Speaker 1>going to reflect on how strong one was until they

0:26:47.920 --> 0:26:51.280
<v Speaker 1>get their final reports some time in mid to late January.

0:26:51.359 --> 0:26:54.639
<v Speaker 1>But I think certainly we're focused on profit taking, but

0:26:54.640 --> 0:26:57.359
<v Speaker 1>but even some tax flaw selling. Because if you look

0:26:57.359 --> 0:27:00.360
<v Speaker 1>at the SMP, there a d two stock that are

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:03.440
<v Speaker 1>down here to date, UM, and that's sixteen percent of

0:27:03.480 --> 0:27:06.720
<v Speaker 1>the index, and and they're down, you know, twelve and

0:27:06.720 --> 0:27:10.520
<v Speaker 1>a half percent on average, with seven percent decline in

0:27:10.560 --> 0:27:14.159
<v Speaker 1>the last month. What that tells me is that where possible,

0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:18.280
<v Speaker 1>people are going to take tax losses. Now, that's negative

0:27:18.359 --> 0:27:21.119
<v Speaker 1>right now. We're feeling it right now. But my guess

0:27:21.119 --> 0:27:23.320
<v Speaker 1>is over the next couple of weeks that lightens up

0:27:23.320 --> 0:27:25.080
<v Speaker 1>and so hopefully that will be more of a tail

0:27:25.119 --> 0:27:29.120
<v Speaker 1>when going forward. UM. So you know, we're seeing profit taking,

0:27:29.119 --> 0:27:33.480
<v Speaker 1>we're seeing tax law selling. That's very normal, um after

0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:36.720
<v Speaker 1>such a strong year in the market. UM. I think

0:27:36.920 --> 0:27:41.720
<v Speaker 1>there's going to be some very strong conversations going into

0:27:41.800 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 1>next year about what to do with this higher and

0:27:44.880 --> 0:27:49.160
<v Speaker 1>higher equity allocation, and that's where Tina comes in, uh

0:27:49.160 --> 0:27:53.679
<v Speaker 1>with there is no alternative across the asset allocation choice,

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:54.960
<v Speaker 1>and I think a lot of people are going to

0:27:55.040 --> 0:27:57.600
<v Speaker 1>stay in equities. Hey, what what should we keep an

0:27:57.600 --> 0:28:01.399
<v Speaker 1>eye on, Jessica when it comes to learning from companies

0:28:01.400 --> 0:28:03.439
<v Speaker 1>about how their first quarter, fourth quarter is going, and

0:28:03.440 --> 0:28:05.280
<v Speaker 1>when you start expecting to hear from them as we

0:28:05.320 --> 0:28:07.119
<v Speaker 1>get into the holiday season. Are we going to actually

0:28:07.160 --> 0:28:09.960
<v Speaker 1>start to hear from them before the end of Q four?

0:28:10.000 --> 0:28:13.080
<v Speaker 1>Will we hear from them before January? Dan, We're hearing

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:16.560
<v Speaker 1>from some of them now with their scheduled analyst days

0:28:17.000 --> 0:28:19.880
<v Speaker 1>and just a handful left this week, and then they'll

0:28:19.880 --> 0:28:23.000
<v Speaker 1>be radio silence for the next couple of weeks. Um.

0:28:23.040 --> 0:28:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Starting in the first week of January, I expect to

0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:30.040
<v Speaker 1>get a lot of updates on holiday sales. Um. This

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:32.840
<v Speaker 1>was a lot more um, it was a lot more

0:28:32.880 --> 0:28:35.480
<v Speaker 1>widespread a few years ago. But I still expect a

0:28:35.520 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 1>handful of companies to come out that first week and

0:28:38.280 --> 0:28:40.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about their holiday sales. But we're quickly going to

0:28:41.040 --> 0:28:43.760
<v Speaker 1>move into earning season. And my guess is that companies

0:28:43.840 --> 0:28:46.880
<v Speaker 1>cannot wait to talk about earnings because as we saw

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:50.320
<v Speaker 1>during the third quarter. Companies have a lot of positive

0:28:50.360 --> 0:28:53.720
<v Speaker 1>things to say about their strategy, about what they're doing

0:28:53.760 --> 0:28:57.280
<v Speaker 1>to combat all of the macro concerns that we're discussing,

0:28:57.680 --> 0:28:59.240
<v Speaker 1>and they just need to get out in front of

0:28:59.280 --> 0:29:02.479
<v Speaker 1>investors and lay the groundwork for what their plans are

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:05.080
<v Speaker 1>in two Just what are the comparisons. I'm just trying

0:29:05.120 --> 0:29:07.000
<v Speaker 1>to think about it. Right fourth quarter a year ago,

0:29:07.040 --> 0:29:09.360
<v Speaker 1>where we were versus where we are today, the comparison

0:29:09.400 --> 0:29:12.080
<v Speaker 1>is going to be in their favor. Yeah, I mean,

0:29:12.280 --> 0:29:14.920
<v Speaker 1>it's really going to be companied by company Carroll. And

0:29:15.000 --> 0:29:17.560
<v Speaker 1>I think what we've seen this year is that there

0:29:17.560 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 1>were some very high PE ratios this time last year

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.280
<v Speaker 1>UM in the recovery parts of the market. So if

0:29:24.280 --> 0:29:27.480
<v Speaker 1>you look at UM, whether it was consumer discretionary or

0:29:27.480 --> 0:29:30.320
<v Speaker 1>financials or some other parts of the market had higher pas,

0:29:30.680 --> 0:29:34.280
<v Speaker 1>they've actually earned their way into lower pas. What that

0:29:34.320 --> 0:29:37.800
<v Speaker 1>means is that their earnings have accelerated and have delivered.

0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 1>So what we look at today with you know, a

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:45.000
<v Speaker 1>twenty one times forward PE for the SMP five hundred.

0:29:45.440 --> 0:29:48.480
<v Speaker 1>Underneath that twenty one times are lots of companies that

0:29:48.520 --> 0:29:50.880
<v Speaker 1>are trading, you know, in the low teens. The mid

0:29:50.920 --> 0:29:55.400
<v Speaker 1>teens and lots of opportunities for further growth. UM. Year

0:29:55.480 --> 0:29:57.800
<v Speaker 1>of your comparisons are still going to be tough next

0:29:57.880 --> 0:30:02.000
<v Speaker 1>year because this year wasn't normal. All last year wasn't normal,

0:30:02.360 --> 0:30:04.440
<v Speaker 1>and frankly, we don't know if we're going to get

0:30:04.440 --> 0:30:07.600
<v Speaker 1>a normal twenty two UM, so I think we just

0:30:07.600 --> 0:30:12.920
<v Speaker 1>stay focused on individual companies. I think we don't know

0:30:12.920 --> 0:30:15.000
<v Speaker 1>if we're going to get a normal two. This is

0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 1>the quandary that the FED and everybody else and who's

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:20.280
<v Speaker 1>trying to make projections, whether you're a market strategist or

0:30:20.320 --> 0:30:23.800
<v Speaker 1>an economist right like this, we just don't know yet

0:30:23.840 --> 0:30:27.440
<v Speaker 1>what two is going to bring. Yeah, I think that's fair.

0:30:27.800 --> 0:30:29.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean one of the things that I like to

0:30:29.720 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 1>focus on is what companies are doing to face the future.

0:30:34.760 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 1>And a couple of stats that I think are interesting

0:30:37.520 --> 0:30:41.200
<v Speaker 1>is just this significant increase in mergers and acquisitions this

0:30:41.280 --> 0:30:45.080
<v Speaker 1>year obviously versus a year where a little was done,

0:30:45.360 --> 0:30:48.560
<v Speaker 1>but two point two trillion dollars worth of deals five

0:30:48.600 --> 0:30:51.920
<v Speaker 1>percent year to date, and of that seven billion are

0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:54.320
<v Speaker 1>still pending, they haven't closed yet, So we have a

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:57.400
<v Speaker 1>lot of momentum going into next year. And typically when

0:30:57.400 --> 0:30:59.880
<v Speaker 1>you see these deals clothes. There's a lot of synergy.

0:31:00.000 --> 0:31:03.640
<v Speaker 1>These integration creates higher margin and then if there are

0:31:03.880 --> 0:31:07.120
<v Speaker 1>proceeds from a deal, they turn into share buy backs

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:11.720
<v Speaker 1>and other UM shareholder friendly UM allocations. And so I

0:31:11.760 --> 0:31:13.760
<v Speaker 1>think that's a good stat and the I p O

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:15.760
<v Speaker 1>market has taken off, and we see a lot of

0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:18.160
<v Speaker 1>strength going into the end of the year there. So

0:31:18.280 --> 0:31:21.040
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of reasons to be optimistic

0:31:21.040 --> 0:31:25.200
<v Speaker 1>about the opportunities across the market. But I want to

0:31:25.200 --> 0:31:27.800
<v Speaker 1>be very careful and say that this this does start

0:31:27.840 --> 0:31:30.479
<v Speaker 1>to me looking like a more of a stock pickers market,

0:31:30.840 --> 0:31:33.480
<v Speaker 1>where you know, there are parts of the market that

0:31:33.560 --> 0:31:38.120
<v Speaker 1>are still very expensive and have done very well this year, um.

0:31:38.160 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>And so you know, I think you have to be

0:31:39.880 --> 0:31:43.720
<v Speaker 1>very careful making broad statements. Right. Yeah, No, that's a

0:31:43.720 --> 0:31:45.240
<v Speaker 1>really good point. But I agree with you that M

0:31:45.240 --> 0:31:48.080
<v Speaker 1>and A activity And as you said, if there's still

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:51.680
<v Speaker 1>thousands of deals that are just out there, um and

0:31:51.720 --> 0:31:54.600
<v Speaker 1>they have to you know, carry themselves into the new year,

0:31:54.600 --> 0:31:58.840
<v Speaker 1>that does provide some really interesting energy going into Jessica Bimer,

0:31:58.920 --> 0:32:01.520
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much a great holiday A safe holiday

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:05.760
<v Speaker 1>portfolio manager at Easterly Investment Partners. Thanks for listening to

0:32:05.760 --> 0:32:09.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week, download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or

0:32:09.360 --> 0:32:11.560
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to our

0:32:11.640 --> 0:32:14.240
<v Speaker 1>radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio or

0:32:14.240 --> 0:32:16.920
<v Speaker 1>watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News