1 00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance just certainly a heightened set of 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:10,080 Speaker 1: risks in the U. S economy right now. And that's 3 00:00:10,160 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 1: because the United States isn't an island. We're part of 4 00:00:12,880 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: a global economy. We're on healthcare in ways that no 5 00:00:18,040 --> 00:00:21,480 Speaker 1: other country does. The big argument about accessible low interest 6 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 1: rates for very long during the time is that warps 7 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: the investment pattern, real investment. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to 8 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. 9 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: Good morning everyone, Michael McKee and Tom Kane from Washington, 10 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: d C. After Super Tuesday. We've had some fabulous moments 11 00:00:42,120 --> 00:00:45,879 Speaker 1: here the last few days. Coming up the American economy 12 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: and our economic politics. Jared Bernstein joined us, joining us 13 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: with terrific research over the years on our dynamics of 14 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: inequality of income and wealth. Jared Bernstein, of course, UH 15 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: with a public service tenure with Vice President Biden as well. 16 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance this morning and brought you by Cone RESNEC Accounting, 17 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,360 Speaker 1: tax advisory, regulatory changes can impact your business. See how 18 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:13,240 Speaker 1: the experts at Cone RESNEC can help you navigate these complexities. 19 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 1: Find out more at Cone RESNEC, UH dot com and 20 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:22,440 Speaker 1: Michael McKee. Uh. It's always a shock when you see it. 21 00:01:22,680 --> 00:01:25,760 Speaker 1: You never get over it. But earthquake news again, and 22 00:01:25,840 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 1: not of the funny kind whatsoever. No, this is a 23 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: magnitude eight point two quake some seven sixty three miles 24 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:38,520 Speaker 1: southwest of Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. There is the possibility 25 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:42,040 Speaker 1: of a tsunami. We are waiting to find out whether 26 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: that is happening now. Magnitude eight point to earthquake is 27 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: about the size that struck Tokyo, uh and Japan a 28 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:54,080 Speaker 1: couple of years ago. However, um it all depends on 29 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 1: how deep it was and how far away it was 30 00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:59,560 Speaker 1: from land, and whether there's a tsunamic or not. So 31 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:01,800 Speaker 1: we know there's big earthquake, we do not know what 32 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: the outcome is going to be. Stay tuned. We'll bring 33 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: it the headlines as as soon as we get them. Yeah, 34 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,639 Speaker 1: and looking at the map, still trying to locate any 35 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: number of them today. But this is again near UH 36 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: in the broader vicinity of Singapore as well. We'll give 37 00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 1: you more details on that. This is just coming out now. 38 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: An earthquake near Malaysia with tsunami warning. It was a 39 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: tsunami yesterday in politics, we thought we would give you 40 00:02:25,600 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: economic perspective. Jared Bernstein joins us. Now he's been such 41 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: a benefit to us with the Center on Budget and 42 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:37,080 Speaker 1: Policy Priorities. Jared Burnstein, let me start first with Secretary Clinton. 43 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: You had service with Vice President Biden. Is there a 44 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:46,519 Speaker 1: rationality to Secretary Clinton's budget promises? Oh? Yes, I think 45 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 1: there is. Uh. She is I think pretty disciplined in 46 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 1: her proposals in terms of figuring out how you raise 47 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 1: what we call here in Washington the pay for us, 48 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: that is, the revenues to pay for or the ideas 49 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: that she's espousing. Now, what she can tell us, and 50 00:03:03,840 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: I don't know that anyone could, is how she's going 51 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,760 Speaker 1: to get a gridlocked Congress to get behind her. These 52 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 1: are not the kinds of ideas that you can do 53 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,160 Speaker 1: by executive order or rule change, the kind of thing 54 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: the president can do herself. So there is the political dimension. 55 00:03:17,639 --> 00:03:22,040 Speaker 1: But I think it's actually interesting people don't typically accuse 56 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 1: Zi Clinton's numbers of not adding up, because I think 57 00:03:25,600 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 1: they probably do. So Much of the critique on the 58 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 1: other side has been a budget policy of fiction, and 59 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 1: I think that's coming really from all angles. I remarkable, 60 00:03:37,720 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: Jared All people that you don't speak to agree with 61 00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: Jared Bernstein on this matter. What is the level of 62 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: fiction you here in Republican budget rhetoric right now? Is 63 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: it worst ever? Or is this just a normal process. 64 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:53,120 Speaker 1: It's worst ever? And I can actually quantify that. I 65 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: mean everyone always says worst ever, but I can actually 66 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: quantify it. If you look at the largest tax cuts 67 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:03,360 Speaker 1: that have ever occurred, they are significantly smaller as a 68 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 1: share of GDP than any of the ones the Republican 69 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: candidates are proposing. Now. That might be fine if if 70 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 1: you really want to cut the heck out of taxes, 71 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 1: if that's where you're coming from, and some people are, 72 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: But in order to not explode the deficit, you'd have 73 00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:21,000 Speaker 1: to cut so much other spending literally up to under 74 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: some of these plans, and nobody will ever accomplish that. 75 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: It simply won't happen. So yes, uh, deep fantasies on 76 00:04:28,880 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: on the on the on the Republican side in terms 77 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: of taxes, and to be fair and nonpartisan here, um 78 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders plan involves a level of tax increases that 79 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:41,719 Speaker 1: we haven't seen in the past, such that governments as 80 00:04:41,760 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 1: a share of the economy would go from its kind 81 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: of traditional level of about one may to something closer. Now, 82 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: that's not uncommon in European social democracy. Said, in fact, 83 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:56,080 Speaker 1: the candidate tells you that that's where he's coming from, 84 00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: so he's not trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes. 85 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: But that's a very, very different the sort of relationship 86 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:06,279 Speaker 1: between government and the economy than we've historically had. But 87 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 1: as you try to put together UH an economic program 88 00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: for a candidate for an administration, it's easy to move 89 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: the numbers around, but it's very hard to move public 90 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:21,039 Speaker 1: opinion around. Americans, UH tax burden is much lower than 91 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:23,440 Speaker 1: it has been in a very long time, and yet 92 00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:27,400 Speaker 1: people would totally disagree with what I just said and 93 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: think that they are overtaxed and underappreciated by their government. 94 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,160 Speaker 1: And you see the Trump people, the Trump fans don't 95 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: care that his numbers make no sense. So how do 96 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: you deal with that part of it? Well, you are 97 00:05:42,160 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 1: kind of telling the story of my life right now. Uh, 98 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: not to get down in the psychiatrist couch, but it 99 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: is pretty hard for those of us who in the 100 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 1: facts business to be operating in a world where facts 101 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: don't have a lot of of traction. I will say this, though, 102 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,560 Speaker 1: it's easy need to kind of cast the spur. I'm 103 00:06:01,560 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: not saying you were doing this, but it's easy to 104 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 1: cast dispersions at at people for their misperceptions. But I 105 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 1: think you have to admit that federal the federal government 106 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,839 Speaker 1: is uniquely dysfunctional and not working in any way that 107 00:06:14,880 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: any of us would recognize. I mean, you guys, go 108 00:06:16,720 --> 00:06:18,719 Speaker 1: to work and do your job. I go to work 109 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,159 Speaker 1: and do my job. Lots of people who are angry 110 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:23,159 Speaker 1: right now go to work and do their jobs. And 111 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:25,280 Speaker 1: yet for all the taxes they're paying, and you're right, 112 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,279 Speaker 1: in historical terms, they're not particularly high. Uh may spiel 113 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 1: that the people on the other side of that of 114 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: those tax receipts and don't go to work and do 115 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: their job. And then that source of days Jared to 116 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 1: switch gears. So much of it is about economic growth. 117 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 1: I believe somebody long ago said, morning in America. What 118 00:06:44,080 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: part of the day is it in America? Right now? 119 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:48,919 Speaker 1: It seems like a lot of people are doing better, 120 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: are we really? I wouldn't say a lot of people 121 00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:54,440 Speaker 1: are doing better. I would say it's kind of maybe 122 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: mid afternoon. Um, it's hard to say because we don't know, 123 00:06:58,640 --> 00:07:01,159 Speaker 1: uh where the extras is. All we know is that 124 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: this expansion is about six and a half years old, 125 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 1: and that's longer than the average expansion. I think the 126 00:07:07,920 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: idea of morning in America kind of comes from the 127 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,320 Speaker 1: early nineteen eighties being a period after a pretty deep recession, 128 00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: and it was it looked, I think, very plausible that 129 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 1: growth was going to I was going to increase what 130 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 1: they didn't see then, and what we know now is 131 00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: that that growth is going to be highly unequal. So yes, Well, 132 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:26,920 Speaker 1: the economy has been growing consistently for six and a 133 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: half years. The labor market is particularly strong, with low 134 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: unemployment and decent job growth. The benefits of growth are 135 00:07:34,200 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: only now beginning to reach more people, and that's pretty 136 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,800 Speaker 1: late in the game for that to be occurring. Well, 137 00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:45,560 Speaker 1: I go back to, Um, what I was asking earlier 138 00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: about how you deal with that, is there is there 139 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: a carrot that you offer people? Uh, do you have 140 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: to be willing at this point to accept some additional 141 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: deficit spending to cut taxes again or as cutting taxes 142 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,360 Speaker 1: just uh not gonna work given the level of expenditure 143 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 1: we have. Well, Frankly, I don't think we can afford 144 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: to be cutting taxes given what we're looking at, even 145 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,480 Speaker 1: just in terms of demographics. If we want to have 146 00:08:12,600 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: a sustainable UH budget going forward, we know that folks 147 00:08:17,600 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: like me and maybe you guys, I can't see you. 148 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:23,360 Speaker 1: It's it's the radio are aging baby boomers, and based 149 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: on demographics alone, we're going to need to a somewhat 150 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: ratchet up our expenditures to meet the entitlement programmer, social Security, 151 00:08:33,440 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 1: medicare to meet those demands. So I don't see a 152 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: rationale towards, you know, certainly large or significant tax cuts. 153 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: I know that I suspect Canada Hillary Clinton has talked 154 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:48,120 Speaker 1: about at some point coming forward with some sort of 155 00:08:48,160 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 1: a tax cut for the middle class. We'll see what 156 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 1: that looks like. But I kind of walk around thinking 157 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: that the way forward is not so much to contemplate 158 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: cutting taxes. It's to think about an agenda that will 159 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:02,400 Speaker 1: help reconnect people prosperity to the growing economy. So it's 160 00:09:02,440 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: really focused more on pushing back on these inequality trends 161 00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 1: we've been discussing. Let's come back with Jared Bernstein with 162 00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 1: the Center on Budget policy priorities. Will continue our discussion 163 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:16,880 Speaker 1: here of the fiscal side and economic side. UM is 164 00:09:16,920 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: the auction process gets interesting to Michigan and then onto Florida. 165 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,079 Speaker 1: Two weeks from yesterday, Mike McKie, I've never seen an 166 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 1: earthquake announced with so little information on the internet. It 167 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 1: is Mentawei. This is off of Bloomberg News. It is 168 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:38,680 Speaker 1: a huge earthquake near Mentai m E n t a 169 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:47,239 Speaker 1: w a I southwest seven sixty three miles from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 170 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:52,520 Speaker 1: and it's just original. How little information there is on 171 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: this right now. I'm finding very interesting because there is 172 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: there are headlines out from the Malaysians and from the 173 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 1: Indonesian quake agencies, but nothing on the U S. Geological 174 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 1: Survey earthquake site yet. So um Usually the U S 175 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: g S is sort of the worldwide authority and you 176 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: look to them first. So this is an interesting situation. 177 00:10:13,520 --> 00:10:16,160 Speaker 1: We will of course continue to monitor this and bring 178 00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:18,959 Speaker 1: you any news that we can as soon as we can, 179 00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: and we want to be careful on that because again 180 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 1: the news flow off of this is very very very 181 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: very challenging. Will continue to give you headlines because off 182 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: the bloomberg an eight point two, a very large earthquake 183 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 1: UH in the vicinity of Malaysia and Singapore as well. 184 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 1: Futures of negative four down, futures of negative thirty oil 185 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:43,040 Speaker 1: finally weaker after two three good days. Brent crude thirty 186 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 1: six seventy per barrel down oh ten cents this morning. 187 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 1: Now let's bring in Michael R. With the latest world 188 00:10:55,120 --> 00:10:58,079 Speaker 1: in national headlines. Michael, thank you very much. Mike and Tom. 189 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,760 Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton have wide their leads after 190 00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 1: Super Tuesday contest. Overall, Trump and Clinton each one seven states. 191 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 1: As you had mentioned earlier, there is word of an 192 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: eight point to earthquake that has hit off Kuala Lumpur, 193 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,640 Speaker 1: Malaysian authorities. They're checking to see if there are any casualties, 194 00:11:14,679 --> 00:11:17,880 Speaker 1: but nothing yet so far from the U S Geological survey. 195 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: The U N Security Council votes today on the resolution 196 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:23,680 Speaker 1: that would impose the toughest sanctions on North Korea in 197 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: two decades. The US and North Korea's traditional ally China, 198 00:11:28,080 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 1: spent seven weeks negotiating the new sanctions in response to 199 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: be Young Yang's latest nuclear test and rocket launch. Both 200 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:39,160 Speaker 1: are in defiance of previous Council Resolutions. Global News twenty 201 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred 202 00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around 203 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 1: the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike, Tom and Michael. Thank 204 00:11:48,120 --> 00:11:50,880 Speaker 1: you so much seen weeker one four twenty nine. That's 205 00:11:50,880 --> 00:11:54,199 Speaker 1: a big move over three days, one four nine from 206 00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:58,320 Speaker 1: one twelve handle earlier eurosurance of one O eight fifty 207 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:02,160 Speaker 1: seven as well from wash Ington. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. 208 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: The news update brought to you by the Town of 209 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:10,599 Speaker 1: Hempstead Industrial Development Agency. Find out how to put the 210 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: Town of Hempstead idea to work for your business called 211 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,520 Speaker 1: one five three seven zero or visit t O h 212 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:24,200 Speaker 1: I d A dot org. Global business News twenty four 213 00:12:24,200 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 1: hours a day at Bloomberg dot com, the radio plus 214 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: mobile app and on your radio. This is a Bloomberg 215 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. Breaking economic news crossing 216 00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg. We go to Vinnie Dell Judais with the 217 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:41,760 Speaker 1: latest Vinny Karen Moore. Progress in the US labor market. 218 00:12:41,760 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 1: Payroll provider a DP reporting business is at a two 219 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: hundred fourteen thousand jobs in February, topping forecast January revised 220 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:55,959 Speaker 1: higher again the ADP report showing private payrolls top forecast 221 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: in February up two hundred fourteen thousand. At the Bloomberg 222 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: First Work Desk on the del Karen, alright, thanks, Vinny, 223 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:06,200 Speaker 1: and futures are made lower following that report, Let's go 224 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: to the First Word Breaking news desk for today's morning call, 225 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:12,079 Speaker 1: and here's Bill Maloney. Good morning, Bill, Good morning, Karen. 226 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: We are seeing small losses in the US futures Dow. 227 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:17,440 Speaker 1: If you're just currently lower by nineteen points, Sespes drop 228 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,560 Speaker 1: three and as the futures are lower by two, the 229 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 1: US ten yield at one point eight five per cent. 230 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: In Europe, Spaning gains one point one percent, and Italy 231 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 1: is higher by point seven percent. On the US economic front, 232 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,839 Speaker 1: At ten thirty, look for energy inventory numbers, and at 233 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,240 Speaker 1: two o'clock FED releases Beige Book. In other news, Weatherford 234 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,199 Speaker 1: prices a hundred million shares at five sixty five a share. 235 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,520 Speaker 1: Sports Authority files for chapter eleven, and Transocean CFO sees 236 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: no rig market recovery in the next twelve to twenty 237 00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:49,440 Speaker 1: four months. In deal news, i f r Age reports 238 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:53,600 Speaker 1: IBM seeks to sell entire steak in Lenovo CCL Industries 239 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:57,520 Speaker 1: to buy Checkpoints Systems for ten fifteen a share. Regarding 240 00:13:57,520 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 1: airings this morning, Abercrombie and fit GPS eat Brown inform 241 00:14:01,040 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 1: A EPs inline revenue missed, and Monsanto cut your ongoing 242 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,839 Speaker 1: EPs views shares it down six percent pre market found me. 243 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 1: Samuel Walshe upgrades and downgrades e q T cut the 244 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: equate over at Morgan Stanley, Dolatry cut your market perform 245 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: at Raymond James, and finally, Universal Health raised the neutral 246 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,640 Speaker 1: over at stern A g with a price target of 247 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: one forty four. Live in the first breaking news Scombill Maloney, Karen, alright, 248 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 1: thanks to bailan to hear live breaking news over your 249 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg type squawk and go on your termental that's s 250 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 1: uu a w K go and that's a Bloomberg business flash. 251 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 1: Tom and Mike, Karen, thank you so much. Bloomberg Surveillance 252 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,680 Speaker 1: this morning from Washington, brought to you by Investco. Investco 253 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:43,920 Speaker 1: believes it's time to bench the benchmarks and to consider 254 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: active management and factor based strategies. Find out more investco 255 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:54,000 Speaker 1: dot com slash high conviction that's investco dot com slash 256 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: high conviction. We're sulled to bring to Jared Bernstein uh 257 00:14:57,440 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 1: from the Center and Budget and policy priorities. But Mike, first, 258 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: I've never seen Mike an earthquake was such a little information. Well, 259 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: it's just beginning to come out now and maybe partly 260 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:09,479 Speaker 1: because of the location with the U. S Geological Survey 261 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:11,760 Speaker 1: does have it on their maps now they're calling it 262 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: a seven point nine earthquake some point nine magnitude. If 263 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 1: you draw line draw triangle, uh, sort of south southwest 264 00:15:22,360 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore out into the Javasea, the 265 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 1: Indian Ocean, you will see where the earthquake is. It's 266 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:36,080 Speaker 1: off the coast of Indonesia at this point and no 267 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,600 Speaker 1: reports of damage yet. There is a tsunami warning, which 268 00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: would be normal for this magnitude of an earthquake, but 269 00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 1: no sign of one yet, so again we continue to monitor. 270 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 1: We do know it was about six miles deep, which 271 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: is uh not particularly deep, so it could have an impact. Um, well, 272 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: we don't know yet. Yeah, Sumatra quickly here. Sumatra is 273 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:01,520 Speaker 1: protecting Singapore from large ways at least that's the theory 274 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 1: right now. Somatra with the southern coast of Somatra with 275 00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:10,760 Speaker 1: a tsunami. Uh, the tsunami warning. Jared Bernstein with us. 276 00:16:10,800 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: He never thought he'd gets so much earthquake and geology. 277 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: Uh within his is it to Bloomberg's yeah something something. 278 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: But jaredy goes to a budget reality, which is somebody 279 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: pays for the U S G S. Don't they? We 280 00:16:24,320 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: like to talk about spending it now. It's a great point. Uh. Interestingly, 281 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: in our last bit of conversation, I mentioned that suppose 282 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: you wanted to really pursue some of these big tax 283 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,960 Speaker 1: cut ideas. It's not uncommon, by the way, for someone 284 00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,080 Speaker 1: campaigning for presidents say they want to cut taxes. What 285 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: they never tell you is that if you want to 286 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,240 Speaker 1: prevent a real budget debacle, then you're going to have 287 00:16:47,360 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: to cut spending to balance out the tax cuts. Well, 288 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 1: the only type of spending that people want to cut 289 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:55,360 Speaker 1: these days. They don't want to cut entitlements, they don't 290 00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,360 Speaker 1: want to cut the fense is the part of the 291 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: budget that supports things exactly like the geological survey, but 292 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,320 Speaker 1: also some infrastructures, some education and training, health and research. 293 00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:10,719 Speaker 1: The non discretionary defense, part of the non defense discreptionory 294 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: part of the budget. We we did this with Jason 295 00:17:13,840 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 1: Furman yesterday. Let's do it with you again. The review. 296 00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: What have we cut in our budget given our Democratic 297 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:27,040 Speaker 1: president's austerity review for US entitlement cuts versus usgs kind 298 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:31,120 Speaker 1: of cuts exclusively the ladder. That is, if you look 299 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:35,919 Speaker 1: at where the spending cuts have occurred, they're almost exclusively 300 00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:39,760 Speaker 1: on what's called the non defense discretionary side of the budget. 301 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 1: So this is the part of the budget that helps 302 00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,600 Speaker 1: states pay for education, It pays for some infrastructure, It 303 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,720 Speaker 1: pays for the kinds of weather of fore testing roles 304 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:54,640 Speaker 1: that we were just discussing, the geological seminary, the geological survey. 305 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: It pays for um as I mentioned, medical research. Uh 306 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: and and this is now down as a share of 307 00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 1: GDP to its lowest level on record, going all the 308 00:18:05,119 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: way back to the nineteen sixties. That's where the cuts 309 00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:10,000 Speaker 1: have been concentrated, because that's where the cuts are the 310 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,920 Speaker 1: least politically insulated people are. People don't want to see 311 00:18:13,960 --> 00:18:17,440 Speaker 1: cuts to entitlement programs, and there's lots of hawks who 312 00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:19,400 Speaker 1: don't want to see cuts the defense. So what's left 313 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: what I've been describing then that that famous Wall Street 314 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,680 Speaker 1: Journal aadline of a year and a half two years 315 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: ago of bombing the Pentagon back to eight or ninety 316 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,639 Speaker 1: percent of GDP? Are we getting there? Are we going 317 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: to have a Pentagon budget that takes us back for Eisenhower? Well, 318 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: I actually think that the Penta, the Pentagon budget is 319 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 1: kind of holding constant to the level of GDP that's 320 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 1: not particularly high. Interestingly, h defense haven't been um completely spared, 321 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,959 Speaker 1: but it's mostly not growing as much as it is 322 00:18:55,200 --> 00:18:58,000 Speaker 1: getting cut. Where we're really cutting is on the non 323 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:03,480 Speaker 1: defense discretionary party of bud IT that has very few protectors. Jared, 324 00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,520 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Jared Bernstein with us with the 325 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: Center and budget and policy priorities, and uh we had 326 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 1: him on for too short a time. As we look 327 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 1: at the news of the earthquake far to the south 328 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:17,399 Speaker 1: of Singapore and Kuala Lumpour out off the southern coast 329 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,800 Speaker 1: of Somatra, a little bit of exposure to Australia very 330 00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:25,399 Speaker 1: far away again, a seven point nine earthquake according to 331 00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:28,280 Speaker 1: the u s g S let's review the view forward 332 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 1: for surveillance here in support of FM Washington. Thank you 333 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:36,960 Speaker 1: for the many notes of listeners in the Washington and 334 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:42,480 Speaker 1: Baltimore area with FM. We greatly appreciate your comments and 335 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: joining us today as well. Lonnie Chen will join us. 336 00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,800 Speaker 1: He is with the Rubio campaign advising. Then we've spoken 337 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: to him many times before. Captain Hassett, Kevin Hassett with 338 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 1: a E. I will talk to him about what the 339 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,959 Speaker 1: establishment will do. And also Livery Cantroll will join us 340 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:03,520 Speaker 1: from Pimpkull. I'm policy moving forward. This is Bloomberg Surveillance 341 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: coming up there with all due respect, highlight brought to 342 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: you by land Rover. If it's in your nature to 343 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,360 Speaker 1: call off the every day and seek adventure, the Discovery 344 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 1: Sport was built to help your search. Visit land Rover 345 00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: try state dot com for special offers during the only 346 00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:24,520 Speaker 1: Adventure Sales event. Landrover Above and Beyond broadcasting live to 347 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: New York, Gloomberg eleventh wo to Washington, d C, Bloomberg 348 00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:34,200 Speaker 1: to Boston, Bloomberg twelve hundreds to San Francisco, Bloomberg to 349 00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,919 Speaker 1: the Country Series Exam Channel one nine and around the 350 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,640 Speaker 1: globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This 351 00:20:41,840 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Surveillance. Good morning, eight thirty on Wall Street. 352 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,040 Speaker 1: I'm Michael McKee along with Tom Keane. We are in Washington, 353 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,159 Speaker 1: d C. Today. Super Wednesday are follow up to the 354 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:56,640 Speaker 1: Super Tuesday voting. Good morning to everyone here listening on 355 00:20:56,920 --> 00:21:00,959 Speaker 1: FM in the Washington and Baltimore air He is uh. 356 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: The focus in the political world is on the Super 357 00:21:04,040 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 1: Tuesday primaries on Wall Street. It is on the economic data. 358 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: And we have some new numbers out this morning. Our 359 00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: Economic indicators brought to you by Commonwealth Financial Network. When 360 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: it's time to change the conversation, talk with a broker 361 00:21:15,400 --> 00:21:17,800 Speaker 1: dealer r I A that's ready to listen, call eight 362 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,680 Speaker 1: six six four six two three six three eight or 363 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Number of the 364 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: morning a DP out fifteen minutes ago. They found, according 365 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,719 Speaker 1: to their calculations, two hundred and fourteen thousand more private 366 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,200 Speaker 1: sector jobs were added in the month of February. That 367 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,440 Speaker 1: is more than the one hundred and ninety thousand forecast 368 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: by economists and more than the one and ninety three 369 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: thousand revised estimate for January. So good news on the 370 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: employment front if you believe a DP is a measure 371 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:52,840 Speaker 1: of anything, and economists are divided about that, but it 372 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 1: is another strong number along with the better number not 373 00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,880 Speaker 1: strong but better number from I s M yesterday. Dean 374 00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:03,119 Speaker 1: Maggie is a chief in chief economists for point seventy 375 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:08,160 Speaker 1: two Asset Management. He joins US now. Dean, Uh, if 376 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:11,679 Speaker 1: it were not for the heart attack that the stock 377 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 1: market had at the first of the year, would the 378 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: FED be raising rates at the March meeting. I think 379 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:21,960 Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that if you only looked at the 380 00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: economic data and not at the markets, the FED would 381 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: be raising rates in March. The job growth has you know, 382 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,400 Speaker 1: sod a bid in the payroll numbers, but it kind 383 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,200 Speaker 1: of had to after plus thousand in the fourth quarter 384 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:39,439 Speaker 1: on average, But nothing worries. Some jobless claims look fine, 385 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:43,359 Speaker 1: and uh, the I s M looks to bottomed, doubt 386 00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: and and and seems to be picking up some steam. 387 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 1: So there's nothing in the economic datas and further inflation, 388 00:22:50,119 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: core inflation has picked up as well, So if if 389 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: the Fed were not paying attention to markets, they certainly 390 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:01,400 Speaker 1: would be raising rates. In my view, well, do they 391 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: need How much attention do they need to pay to markets, 392 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 1: especially since we've seen markets sort of rebound over the 393 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:12,120 Speaker 1: next last few days. I think that the risk there's 394 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: a risk that the said pays too much attention to 395 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 1: market volatility and and you know, responds too quickly when 396 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 1: when markets run into difficulty. UM. Now, the FED would 397 00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 1: say they need to do that because that market volatility 398 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:32,320 Speaker 1: could affect economic growth. I myself, I'm a little skeptical 399 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,480 Speaker 1: that the kind of volatility we've seen is really going 400 00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,879 Speaker 1: to cause a severe slowdown in the economy. Where are 401 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 1: we on calculating exports and imports into what our central 402 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: bank will do? Are we using a purely domestic prison 403 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:48,560 Speaker 1: or do they have to worry about trade and for 404 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 1: that matter, inventory adjustments. I think they do need to 405 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: worry about all of that. But the way I look 406 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,560 Speaker 1: at the US right now, sumer spending looks to be 407 00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 1: on a solid growth track. It looks like it's going 408 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: to be three percent or or possibly even better in 409 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,360 Speaker 1: the first quarter. And as long as you have that, 410 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: you know trade can be a drag, inventories can be 411 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,879 Speaker 1: somewhat of a drag, then you still get two to 412 00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,000 Speaker 1: two and a half percent growth um. That's more than 413 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:20,640 Speaker 1: enough to keep pushing the unemployment right down, to keep 414 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:25,159 Speaker 1: job growth solid UM. So with consumer spending on that 415 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: kind of a track. It's it's very difficult for the 416 00:24:27,800 --> 00:24:32,240 Speaker 1: economy to fall below below its potential growth rate. What 417 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:36,440 Speaker 1: are the ramifications if the said plauses, if they're under 418 00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: the kind of pressure that Mike and I see in 419 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:41,840 Speaker 1: our mail from people, Let's say d Mack, he's out 420 00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:45,240 Speaker 1: of his mind, they shouldn't raise rates. What what is 421 00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:51,280 Speaker 1: the price if they pause? Well, I think the one 422 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 1: reason they will pause is the price is lower than 423 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,119 Speaker 1: it than it is at certain points in the cycle. 424 00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,560 Speaker 1: So while inflation has ris then it is below target still, 425 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,560 Speaker 1: and the Fed doesn't mind if it goes somewhat above 426 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: target as long as it's under control. So I don't 427 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 1: think there's a huge cost to the feed of waiting. 428 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,880 Speaker 1: I think the risk really is down the road, as 429 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 1: if the unemployment rate keeps falling in the way that 430 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,080 Speaker 1: I think it will, at some point the feed is 431 00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: probably going to have to tighten more aggressively than they 432 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 1: than they expect. But and the more they pause and 433 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:29,120 Speaker 1: the longer they wait, the more likely that outcome becomes. 434 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 1: When is down the road though, because the markets seem 435 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:37,320 Speaker 1: to be discounting that well into the future. Yeah, I 436 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,359 Speaker 1: would say you know, I think the unemployment rate is 437 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 1: going to be close to four percent by the end 438 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:46,560 Speaker 1: of the year, and the you know, with that kind 439 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,199 Speaker 1: of backdrop, if wage growth continues to pick up as 440 00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 1: as I expect it will, and core inflation continues to 441 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: drift higher, the FED is going to be increasingly uncomfortable 442 00:25:56,520 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: having rates close to zero. And so this is probably 443 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: a store for rather than this year where where the 444 00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: FED has to pick up the pace. But the longer 445 00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: they wait, if the more likely that becomes. Well quickly, 446 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,679 Speaker 1: if we get a three nine print and when you 447 00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: sort in a new terminal value, a more damp and 448 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:22,000 Speaker 1: animal spirit, what rate would the FED uses their target? 449 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,199 Speaker 1: It's not the rate of two thousand six, isn't I 450 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:31,480 Speaker 1: mean in terms of the terms the long regimeruns right, yeah, yeah, yeah, 451 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,600 Speaker 1: whatever you want to call it. Yeah, I think you know, 452 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,479 Speaker 1: the Fed's estimate is three and a half percent. I 453 00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:42,480 Speaker 1: think that's that's reasonable. Um, they won't necessarily go there quickly, 454 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 1: but I think that is a reasonable place to expect 455 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,400 Speaker 1: them to go over time. D mackew, thank you so much. 456 00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: With point seven two, with the beginning of an update, 457 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 1: three and a half percent just seems miles away distant. Well, 458 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,119 Speaker 1: it's the rate we've been going. It won't be that 459 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,480 Speaker 1: distant that quickly. Whether you get to four percent by 460 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:03,680 Speaker 1: the end of the year or not, that may be 461 00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 1: a little aggressive, but it's certainly moving in that direction. 462 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: And he's not the only one that's saying that FED 463 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,360 Speaker 1: may have come faster. Yeah, absolutely, Dean mac with point 464 00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 1: seven too, of course, really beginning with all the distractions 465 00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 1: of Washington, three days of coverage of the American Jobs 466 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:21,679 Speaker 1: Report with the A d P numbers today. Bill Gross 467 00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,199 Speaker 1: scheduled to join us on Friday, some other good guests 468 00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 1: as well, to give you perspective to go beneath the 469 00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:31,240 Speaker 1: headline data on the American labor economy futures at negative 470 00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:39,280 Speaker 1: six down futures negative forty seven. That it's time to 471 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:43,480 Speaker 1: hear from Michael Barr with the latest world in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, 472 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: thank you very much. Donald Trump says he is expanding 473 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 1: the Republican Party, even as many of its leaders have 474 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:52,880 Speaker 1: distanced themselves from him. Trump won in seven states during 475 00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: Super Tuesday, Ted Cruz one in three states, while Marco 476 00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 1: Rubio chalked up his first victory of the campaign in Minnesota. 477 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: The magic number to win the Republican presidential nomination is 478 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,639 Speaker 1: one thousand, two hundred thirty seven. Right now, Trump has 479 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:09,440 Speaker 1: two hundred seventy four delegates or two d eighty five. 480 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:11,480 Speaker 1: I should say Cruz has a hundred forty nine and 481 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 1: Rubio at eighty two. Democrat Hillary Clinton, who won seven 482 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: states last night, tried to turn Donald Trump's to make 483 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 1: America Great against slogan on its head. Clinton told supporters 484 00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:25,640 Speaker 1: the country instead must be made whole again. Bernie Sanders 485 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,560 Speaker 1: picked up victories in four states, including his home state 486 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,639 Speaker 1: of Vermont. For the Democrats, Clinton has at least a 487 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 1: thousand five delegates, Sanders has three hundred seventy three. It 488 00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:37,560 Speaker 1: will take at least two thousand, eight hundred eighty three 489 00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 1: delegates to win the Democratic presidential nomination. Vice President Joe Biden, 490 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,520 Speaker 1: during a Black History Month reception in Washington last night, 491 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,280 Speaker 1: had some sarcasm for Donald Trump. I think we really 492 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: are have a chance to move toward a more perfect 493 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: union incrementally, I really really knew, so I want to 494 00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:06,400 Speaker 1: thank Donald Trump. The U S Geological surveys has a 495 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,560 Speaker 1: seven point nine earthquake has hit off Sumatra Indonesian officials 496 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 1: say the quake is about seven hundred sixty three miles 497 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 1: southwest of Qualitam. Poor Global News twenty four hours a day, 498 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,760 Speaker 1: powered by our journalists and more than a hundred fifty 499 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:21,320 Speaker 1: news bureaus from around the world. Michael Barr, Mike Tom, 500 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:27,240 Speaker 1: Thank you, Michael, Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update. 501 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: For that way, bring in John stash Our, John all right, Mike. 502 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 1: Not as if the Yankees didn't know what they were 503 00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,480 Speaker 1: getting when they acquired reliever all This Chapman from Cincinnati. 504 00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,240 Speaker 1: The Dodgers backed off a trade after learning of Chapman's 505 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:42,000 Speaker 1: involvement in a domestic violence and firearms situation. Last Ball 506 00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,440 Speaker 1: Baseball has suspended Chapman for thirty games. You can pitching 507 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 1: spring training, then not again until May nine. Will forefeit 508 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,800 Speaker 1: one point eight million in salary, Chapman said in a statement. 509 00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,320 Speaker 1: Though while he never harmed his girlfriend, he should have 510 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 1: used better judgment than going from bad to worse. For 511 00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 1: the Knicks fans at the Garden boot early and often 512 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,000 Speaker 1: a one oh four eighty five lost to Portland, one 513 00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 1: courtside fan was getting on Carmelo Anthony, who then offered 514 00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,960 Speaker 1: the fans some advice. One is right there. Actually the 515 00:30:09,000 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: money back, definitely, I mean that at that point, you know, 516 00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: he called to me to tell me that he'd never 517 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,160 Speaker 1: come into another game and sucking. I mean, you just don't. 518 00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,640 Speaker 1: You just don't want to hear that. So I'm pointed 519 00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:23,480 Speaker 1: to an owner in total. Look, you deal with that 520 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 1: way him and maybe you can get some money back. 521 00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 1: Maakes have lost fifteen of eighteen. Second game and as 522 00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: many nights the Staples Center for the Nets. After losing 523 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:32,920 Speaker 1: to the Clippers, they came back lost to the Lakers, 524 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:34,600 Speaker 1: who had been on an eight game losing spreag one 525 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 1: oh seven one on one. Kobe Bryant didn't play, but 526 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,800 Speaker 1: rookie D'Angelo Russell didn't scored thirty nine points. Islanders on 527 00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 1: a time as Hicky going midway through the third period 528 00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,520 Speaker 1: one three two at Vancouver. All three goals actually went 529 00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 1: I off Vancouver players like goal by Carolina and then 530 00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 1: another the Hurricanes beat the Devil's three to one. With 531 00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, I'm John Stashammer. John, thanks 532 00:30:56,960 --> 00:31:02,560 Speaker 1: so much, greatly appreciate that good morning FM here in Washington. 533 00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:05,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg tun Boston Blower eleven three on New York. See 534 00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:09,480 Speaker 1: you tomorrow. We'll move back up the coast tonight and 535 00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: be with you very much tomorrow morning. We're a storm. 536 00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 1: Plus is a storm. We're moving up the coast. We're 537 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 1: moving up the coast is Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought 538 00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,440 Speaker 1: to you by the New Chamber of Commerce. Mining Agriculture 539 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,880 Speaker 1: opportunities abound in Nigeria. Learn about protective investments in Africa's 540 00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:31,960 Speaker 1: most active markets. Thursday March three, Breakfast at eight am, 541 00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: twenty West forty fourth Street. Breakfast is free global business 542 00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot Com, 543 00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:44,680 Speaker 1: the radio plus mobile lact and on your radio. This 544 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,560 Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow. This 545 00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:51,160 Speaker 1: updates brought to you by Sector Spider e t F 546 00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 1: s by by a single stock. When you can invest 547 00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 1: in the entire sector. Visits Sector sp d r s 548 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,640 Speaker 1: dot Com are called Sector e t F openis added 549 00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 1: more workers than projected in February. The two hundred fourteen 550 00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:07,360 Speaker 1: thousand increase in employment followed a revise one dred nineties 551 00:32:07,360 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 1: three thousand rise in the prior month figures from the 552 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:14,200 Speaker 1: ADP Research Institute show McKesson, a u S distributor of 553 00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,520 Speaker 1: medical products, will acquire rex All Health from its private 554 00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,360 Speaker 1: owner for two point two billion dollars to expand its 555 00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 1: presence in Canada. Monsanto cutting its full year profit forecast 556 00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:28,080 Speaker 1: is lower prices for its glipha State herbicide and a 557 00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:31,320 Speaker 1: devalued Argentine pace so added to the pressure from a 558 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 1: weaker agricultural markets. Futures lower this morning, SMP EMUNY futures 559 00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 1: down five points down, EUNI futures down thirty eight and 560 00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,360 Speaker 1: NAS DOCH EUNY futures down seven and a half tacks. 561 00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,440 Speaker 1: In Germany's up two tenths per cent. The ten year 562 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:46,000 Speaker 1: treasury down three thirty seconds, the yield one point eight 563 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,320 Speaker 1: three percent. NIMEX screwed oil down one percent or thirty 564 00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,120 Speaker 1: five cents. The thirty four oh five a barrel comics 565 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,120 Speaker 1: gold is up to tenths per cent, or two dollars 566 00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: to twelve thirty three an ounce. The euro a dollar 567 00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 1: oh eight four eight, the N one fourteen point one nine. 568 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:04,280 Speaker 1: As a Bloomberg business flash, Tommin Mike Karen, I thank 569 00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 1: you so much from Washington, d C. On Wall Street. 570 00:33:09,560 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 1: The following is from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from 571 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnists. I'm Megan mccartell, a columnist from Bloomberg View. 572 00:33:16,720 --> 00:33:18,960 Speaker 1: About a week ago, as it became clear that Donald 573 00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 1: Trump was likely to be the Republican nominee, I noticed 574 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 1: a new phenomenon among friends and family, lifelong Republicans who 575 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,680 Speaker 1: were considering voting for Clinton in the fall. So this 576 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,320 Speaker 1: weekend I asked Twitter for emails from people like this 577 00:33:30,560 --> 00:33:33,240 Speaker 1: party stalwarts who were committed not to vote for Trump 578 00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,960 Speaker 1: no matter what. I expected a few dozen, I got 579 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,600 Speaker 1: a few hundred. Who are these voters? They're drawn from 580 00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:42,840 Speaker 1: all ages, demographics, geographies, from Virginia military officers to Indiana 581 00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,680 Speaker 1: farmers to blue state college students. And while they talked 582 00:33:45,680 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 1: about policy issues, most of their issues revolved around character bullying, impulsiveness, misogyny, 583 00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 1: and racism. Narcissism especially criticized as authoritarian streak, which means 584 00:33:56,000 --> 00:34:00,479 Speaker 1: people worry about strong men, fascist dictatorships, nuclear war. Almost 585 00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 1: all of them hastened to tell me that they hated 586 00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and what she would do in office, but 587 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 1: they feared that Donald Trump would be no better on 588 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: policy and thought he would be quite possibly worse on 589 00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:12,279 Speaker 1: everything else. Didn't never Trump voters understand what this meant. 590 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,480 Speaker 1: People inquired losing the Supreme Court for a generation, cementing Obamacare, 591 00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:19,040 Speaker 1: raising taxes. They did, but they were unwilling to be 592 00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,920 Speaker 1: associated Donald Trump in any way, even if that meant 593 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,400 Speaker 1: spending time in the wilderness. If Hilly is elected, I 594 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:26,880 Speaker 1: think the Republic will survive, said one. But if Trump 595 00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:28,759 Speaker 1: is elected, I have my doubts at will. They may 596 00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,040 Speaker 1: be partisans, but they put their country first of all. 597 00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,759 Speaker 1: On Megan mccartell. For more view, please go to Bloombergview 598 00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 1: dot Com or view go on the Bloomberg terminal. This 599 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:40,799 Speaker 1: has been Bloomberg View and Bloombergview commentaries can be heard 600 00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:44,680 Speaker 1: hourly weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Good morning, all of you 601 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,320 Speaker 1: around the world, Bloomberg Radio plus, Bloomberg tw Boston, Bloomberg 602 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:51,040 Speaker 1: nine sixty Waking up the Bay Area of San Francisco, 603 00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:53,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven three oh in New York, and he here 604 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:59,000 Speaker 1: in Washington. Good morning, f M. Michael. We are in 605 00:34:59,160 --> 00:35:03,239 Speaker 1: Washington for the aftermath of Super Tuesday, the series of 606 00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:07,360 Speaker 1: primaries that were held yesterday. It is not Super Tuesday 607 00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,560 Speaker 1: that matters. However, according to Libby Cantrill, who is a 608 00:35:10,719 --> 00:35:15,640 Speaker 1: pimcost political analyst, it is the fifteen of March when 609 00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,920 Speaker 1: a another series of primaries will be held that could 610 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 1: bring the contest to a close. We move into a 611 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,879 Speaker 1: phase where there are a number of winner take all 612 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:31,480 Speaker 1: primaries in very big states Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, and Libby, 613 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 1: you think that this could be, It could be over 614 00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 1: on the Republican side at the end of the day. 615 00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:43,479 Speaker 1: That day, Yeah, March fifteenth is undoubtedly going to be 616 00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,000 Speaker 1: a major inflection point. It is, as you point out, Mike, 617 00:35:47,520 --> 00:35:50,759 Speaker 1: the day that states have the choice of whether they 618 00:35:50,880 --> 00:35:55,080 Speaker 1: allocate delegates on either proportional or winner take all basis. 619 00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:59,520 Speaker 1: But importantly it is also the date of Florida and 620 00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:03,640 Speaker 1: Io primaries, which are winner take all states, and those 621 00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:07,120 Speaker 1: are states where Rubio and John Kasik have to win, 622 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,239 Speaker 1: respectively in order to to stay in the race. At 623 00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:16,040 Speaker 1: this point, given Trumps you know, really runaway success so far. 624 00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,080 Speaker 1: I think, to the chagrin and some of the so 625 00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:23,160 Speaker 1: called establishment in d C, the mask just won't work 626 00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 1: unless your Rubio takes Florida, unless Kasik takes Ohio. So 627 00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,640 Speaker 1: really it's going to be in the flection point in 628 00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:35,240 Speaker 1: that either the races is effectively over at that point 629 00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:39,520 Speaker 1: or it continues to sort of limp along. Um. You know. 630 00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,440 Speaker 1: At the with with with Trump being the kind of 631 00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:46,480 Speaker 1: the clear front runner, Tom and I are in Washington 632 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:48,719 Speaker 1: for Super Tuesday. We're looking for a place to go 633 00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,839 Speaker 1: for this March fifteenth date. I think Tom favors the 634 00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:56,360 Speaker 1: Northern Marianna's Islands winner take all nine delegates. Maybe that 635 00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 1: may be key. Uh does the market does the bond 636 00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 1: market start paying attention on March sixteen to what's been 637 00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,719 Speaker 1: going on. We were just listening to Megan mccartell read 638 00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:14,440 Speaker 1: her latest Bloomberg View article where she noted that there 639 00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:17,000 Speaker 1: are people in the Republican Party who think the country 640 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:21,000 Speaker 1: is in grave danger if Donald Trump becomes president. Yeah. 641 00:37:21,040 --> 00:37:26,000 Speaker 1: From an economic perspective, the hard thing about Donald Trump 642 00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:30,480 Speaker 1: is that he's kind of ideologically all over the map. Right. 643 00:37:30,560 --> 00:37:34,480 Speaker 1: So on one hand, if he opposes free trade, which 644 00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 1: has been part of the Republican platform for for a 645 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:42,319 Speaker 1: long time in terms of opening up trade, Um, but 646 00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:45,600 Speaker 1: then he he on the other hand, has a much 647 00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:51,040 Speaker 1: more aggressive tax policy that you know, would add from 648 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:54,480 Speaker 1: estiments around nine trillion to twelve trillion dollars to the death, 649 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,360 Speaker 1: So he's all over the place. That from a market's perspective, 650 00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to get your your arms wrapped around what 651 00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:03,839 Speaker 1: a Trump presidency would actually mean, which probably the bad 652 00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:08,080 Speaker 1: thing for the markets, right because markets don't typically like uncertainty. 653 00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:12,279 Speaker 1: Let me if we take it even forward to how 654 00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:15,400 Speaker 1: you advised PIMCO. When do we care about the electoral 655 00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,600 Speaker 1: process with our investments? I mean, I think it's way 656 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,680 Speaker 1: overdone the linkages, But do we care before the conventions? 657 00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,400 Speaker 1: Do we care after the conventions? Can I ignore all 658 00:38:25,480 --> 00:38:30,640 Speaker 1: this until the third week of October? Yeah? Well, I 659 00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,560 Speaker 1: think again, Marcist teams from the Republican side will be 660 00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:36,080 Speaker 1: will be an inflection point because it will show it 661 00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,799 Speaker 1: will indicate whether this goes to the convention honestly or 662 00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:43,960 Speaker 1: whether it's it's over. So the convention, which usually doesn't 663 00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,160 Speaker 1: matter um, could actually matter pretty you know, pretty significantly 664 00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,319 Speaker 1: on on the Republican side. But I think from an 665 00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:57,200 Speaker 1: investor's perspective, we probably shouldn't really start caring until the 666 00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:00,080 Speaker 1: nominees are firmed up. I think on the Democratics, it 667 00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,600 Speaker 1: it looks like that's probably gonna happen sooner than later. 668 00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:05,719 Speaker 1: But again the Republican side, that could happen as as 669 00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,959 Speaker 1: early as March fifteen, or could could last up until 670 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,840 Speaker 1: the convention. So I don't think we should start really 671 00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:13,800 Speaker 1: focusing on it though, until we have a good idea 672 00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:15,759 Speaker 1: on both sides of the delegate mass is going to 673 00:39:15,800 --> 00:39:21,319 Speaker 1: work out to pretend to affirm winner on on each side. Well. 674 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:24,920 Speaker 1: As you point out, Donald Trump's platform is rather incoherent, 675 00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,479 Speaker 1: but Hillary Clinton's is not. She wants to do things 676 00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 1: like break up too big to fail banks, uh, extend 677 00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:37,120 Speaker 1: uh taxation uh the carried interest to tax uh to 678 00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,080 Speaker 1: two people in the financial industry, and uh. I'm wondering 679 00:39:42,120 --> 00:39:48,960 Speaker 1: if if those sectors start to show some movement when 680 00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,560 Speaker 1: it becomes obvious that a she's wrapped up the Democratic 681 00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:56,120 Speaker 1: domination and be uh, there may be a weaker Republican 682 00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,319 Speaker 1: against her. Yeah. Yeah, I mean it's you know, it's 683 00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:02,520 Speaker 1: a good plan. If you really look into her regulatory 684 00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:07,279 Speaker 1: reform agenda, it's really not as draconian as you might 685 00:40:07,400 --> 00:40:10,359 Speaker 1: think just listening to the rhetoric. I mean, she does 686 00:40:10,440 --> 00:40:13,560 Speaker 1: want to do some things at the margin, many of 687 00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:17,479 Speaker 1: which would actually require Congressional approval. So it's not even 688 00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,840 Speaker 1: clear if she were in the White House, you know, 689 00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,720 Speaker 1: would she be able to actually implement her regulatory reform 690 00:40:23,840 --> 00:40:26,000 Speaker 1: agenda and on you know, the other things that you 691 00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,640 Speaker 1: talked about. Make on taxation, I mean, she she does 692 00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:31,839 Speaker 1: want to address the so called carry interest loophole, but 693 00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,200 Speaker 1: soda the Republican candidates, I mean, that's part of the 694 00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:38,480 Speaker 1: Republican candidates tax platform as well. So while the rhetorics 695 00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:42,200 Speaker 1: might seem extreme, um, you know, and and maybe this 696 00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,800 Speaker 1: is just Pollyannist, but just given the fact that Clinton 697 00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:49,120 Speaker 1: has been a creature of Washington, the fact that you know, 698 00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:53,279 Speaker 1: her husband was sort of the master triangulator and master compromiser, 699 00:40:53,719 --> 00:40:57,480 Speaker 1: I would think that she would want to compromise more 700 00:40:57,600 --> 00:41:00,600 Speaker 1: than you might think. Again, just given given where the 701 00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,760 Speaker 1: rhetoric has been, I think there's some there's some areas compromised, 702 00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:07,240 Speaker 1: maybe on corporate tax or form, maybe on entitlements, um, 703 00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:09,239 Speaker 1: that you could actually see some sort of deal even 704 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,279 Speaker 1: coming together if she were in the White House with 705 00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,239 Speaker 1: a with a split Congress. Olivy, what will you look 706 00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,960 Speaker 1: for quickly from the Washington establishment within the Republicans of 707 00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,640 Speaker 1: the next forty eight hours. They got one to three 708 00:41:20,719 --> 00:41:23,400 Speaker 1: days before they get ready ready from Michigan. What do 709 00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,520 Speaker 1: they do? Yeah, it's interesting and you see that, you know, 710 00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:29,120 Speaker 1: Ryan and McConnell has both says it does support whomever 711 00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,440 Speaker 1: the nominee is. But then they've been a little bit 712 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 1: of equivocating a little bit more given some of Trump's 713 00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:38,440 Speaker 1: more extreme comments about white supremises and what have you. 714 00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:41,160 Speaker 1: So you know, it will be interesting. I think that 715 00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,920 Speaker 1: they might, especially McConnell, who has a very vulnerable Senate 716 00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:47,680 Speaker 1: as we've talked about on the Republican side, he might 717 00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,759 Speaker 1: it might behoove him to distance himself even more from 718 00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:53,960 Speaker 1: McDonald Trump um for you know, for hopes that he 719 00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,160 Speaker 1: can protect some of those vulnerable Republicans seats. So, you know, 720 00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:01,160 Speaker 1: I think if they're they equivocate anymore, probably an indication 721 00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:03,000 Speaker 1: that DC is not gonna want to have a lot 722 00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 1: to do with a Donald nominee on it. L Well, 723 00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:08,920 Speaker 1: Olivia must be a sinus spring. We got through this 724 00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:12,040 Speaker 1: without talking about your Denver Broncos Libby Cantrill, Thank you 725 00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:14,840 Speaker 1: so much. She is with PIMCO. As we look at 726 00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:19,200 Speaker 1: our election process, Mike has been just an amazing, amazing 727 00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:23,600 Speaker 1: for eight hours. It has it has developed as people 728 00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:26,799 Speaker 1: had forecasts, but it's sort of like watching a train 729 00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,600 Speaker 1: wreck on the Adams Family. You know what's going to happen, 730 00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,759 Speaker 1: and when it happens, it isn't any better. I'll stay 731 00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:36,479 Speaker 1: tuned for coverage in perspective. Here again, Michigan six days 732 00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 1: from now, and then onto Florida. I believe it's March 733 00:42:38,680 --> 00:42:42,040 Speaker 1: for Florida's right. Yes, I got something right. Let be 734 00:42:42,080 --> 00:42:45,080 Speaker 1: back when we want. Peyton Manning makes a decision. I 735 00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,520 Speaker 1: think we'll have to do this Florida from spring training 736 00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:49,400 Speaker 1: in two weeks. It's Bloomberg surveillance