1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:10,360 Speaker 2: This is the. 3 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Day by Q podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify, 4 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,599 Speaker 3: or wherever you listen. It's Monday, the sixteenth of June 5 00:00:16,640 --> 00:00:18,840 Speaker 3: in London. I'm Caroline Hepcare. 6 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 4: Israel and Iran exchanged strikes for a fourth day, with 8 00:00:24,000 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 4: no negotiations in sight. 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:29,000 Speaker 3: Oil trade doers brace foot turmoil as the attacks threaten 10 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 3: energy infrastructure and put Midley supplies at risk. 11 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 4: Plus, Donald Trump says the United States could become involved 12 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 4: in the conflict, as Bloomberg learns he vetoed an Israeli 13 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,800 Speaker 4: plan to assassinate Iran's supreme leader. 14 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 5: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories. 15 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 4: Israel and Iran have launched further attacks on each other 16 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,159 Speaker 4: in a fourth day of strikes. Iran fired several waves 17 00:00:51,159 --> 00:00:54,120 Speaker 4: of drones and missiles over the last twenty four hours, 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:58,640 Speaker 4: while Israel hit Tehran, killing another key military official. Since Friday, 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 4: two hundred and twenty four people have been killed in Iran, 20 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 4: according to the government, which said most of the casualties 21 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 4: were civilians. Israel's emergency services say Iranian attacks have left 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:12,520 Speaker 4: fourteen people dead and around four hundred injured there, Sayed 23 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:15,399 Speaker 4: Ali Mussavi is the Iranian ambassador to the UK. 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 6: This is our inherent right to self defense. Now we 25 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 6: are defending ourselves. Occurred into the Charter of United Nations. 26 00:01:23,560 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 7: There is no doubt that. 27 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 6: The one act of aggression has been placed against the 28 00:01:28,480 --> 00:01:31,839 Speaker 6: Iranian Iranian territory. 29 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 4: The Uranian ambassador to the UK, speaking as the United 30 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:39,399 Speaker 4: Nations Nuclear Watchdogs had multiple strikes on Iran's uranium conversion 31 00:01:39,440 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: facility at Isfahan, south of Tehran, resulted in serious damage. 32 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,640 Speaker 4: In an interview on ABC's This Week program, Israel's Ambassador 33 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 4: to the United States, Jaghelta, says the recent Israeli strikes 34 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 4: have had a major impact on Iran's nuclear program. 35 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,160 Speaker 8: We've set them back dramatically, but not enough. And that's 36 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:03,080 Speaker 8: why this a series of strikes is not going to 37 00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:06,240 Speaker 8: end today or tomorrow, but only at a period of 38 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:10,800 Speaker 8: time which may take weeks, when we are absolutely certain 39 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 8: that the nuclear infrastructure with the intention of weaponizing and 40 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:18,680 Speaker 8: threatening Israel is terminated. 41 00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 4: Asra's ambassads the US speaking there to ABC, as Iran's 42 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:26,560 Speaker 4: deputy Foreign ministers told State Television that the country would 43 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 4: no longer cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency as 44 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:31,880 Speaker 4: they did before. 45 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: Now, oil prices are seeing further gains after Israeli strikes 46 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,959 Speaker 3: on Iranian energy assets heightened the risk to Middle East 47 00:02:40,000 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 3: supplies and trading routes. Brent crude, the global benchmark rose 48 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 3: by as much as five and a half percent when 49 00:02:46,440 --> 00:02:49,800 Speaker 3: trading began for the new week, before pairing some of 50 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 3: those gains. That's after jumping seven percent on Friday. Pavel 51 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:58,080 Speaker 3: a multon of investment strategy analyst at Raymond James says 52 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 3: the unrest could cause serious industry upheaval. 53 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 9: In the near term. Prices can go absolutely anywhere based 54 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 9: on a sense of panic uncertainty, all of which influence 55 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 9: investor psychology a little bit further ahead. However, what matters 56 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:22,600 Speaker 9: fundamentally is is there going to be actual supply disruption 57 00:03:23,040 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 9: from the Middle East? 58 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 3: Pavel Multonov from Raymond James speaking there. While Israel appears 59 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:33,480 Speaker 3: not to have targeted oil facilities and crude shipment facilities, 60 00:03:33,600 --> 00:03:38,280 Speaker 3: Israel temporarily knocked out a processing facility linked to the 61 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 3: South Pause oil field that is Iran's biggest natural gas field, 62 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:44,840 Speaker 3: in an attack on Saturday. 63 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 4: The reaction in the oil market comes as Bloomberg lar 64 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 4: and the President Trump vetoed an Israeli planned to assassinate 65 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 4: a round Supreme leader. It's unclear whether Trump personally delivered 66 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 4: the message, discouraging as well from carrying out the possible assassination. 67 00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 4: Officials have remained in close contact with their Israeli counterparts 68 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,520 Speaker 4: since israel launch day series of miss Island drone strikes 69 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 4: on Iran. Israel's Prime minister declined to comment on the 70 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:13,080 Speaker 4: pressure from the White House. Speaking to Fox News, Benjaminatania, 71 00:04:13,160 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 4: who had this to say. 72 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 7: I can tell you I think that we do what 73 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 7: we need to do. We'll do what we need to do, 74 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,120 Speaker 7: and I think the United States knows what is good 75 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 7: for the United States. 76 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 4: Natania, who's speaking there as Trump, in an interview with 77 00:04:29,440 --> 00:04:32,360 Speaker 4: ABC News, said it was possible the US could get 78 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 4: involved in the conflict, even as he noted that the 79 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 4: US is not at this moment involved. 80 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 3: Meanwhile, the US President also said he believes Israel and 81 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 3: Iran could eventually reach a peace agreement, but he suggested 82 00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 3: that they may have to continue their conflict before coming 83 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,719 Speaker 3: to the negotiating table. Here's what President Trump told reporters 84 00:04:52,760 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 3: as he prepared to board Marine one, I. 85 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:57,919 Speaker 2: Think the time for a deal and we'll see what happens. 86 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 10: But sometimes I have to fight it out. 87 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 9: But we're going to see what happens. 88 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 2: I think there's a good cheers. 89 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 10: You'll be in Neon. 90 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: President Trump speaking that as he prepared to leave the 91 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,760 Speaker 3: White House to attend the G seven summit in Canada. 92 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 3: The conflict threatens to open a new rift at the 93 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 3: high level gathering where leaders attempt to address a US 94 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: tariff's AI and climate change. There will be no joint 95 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 3: statement at this G seven summit, to preventing a repeat 96 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 3: of twenty eighteen, when President Trump upended Canada's last G 97 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 3: seven meeting by pulling out well. 98 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,560 Speaker 4: The UK government heads to the G seven both supporting 99 00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 4: Israel's action in Iran while condemning its war in Gaza. 100 00:05:37,400 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 4: The UK has already moved jet to the Middle East 101 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 4: to defend its military bases there, whilstressing it has no 102 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 4: intention of stepping into the conflict. 103 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg, James Wilcock has more. 104 00:05:46,640 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 11: Prime Minister Kirs Starmer is walking a tightrope. Listen to 105 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,240 Speaker 11: him on Bloomberg last Friday. 106 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 12: Like I do recognize Israel's right to self defense, There's 107 00:05:54,520 --> 00:05:58,279 Speaker 12: no doubt about that, but I am very concerned about 108 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 12: the escalation of the situation, which is why, along with 109 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 12: Germany and France, were really clear that the escalation is 110 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 12: what is needed here. 111 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,919 Speaker 11: The UK Prime Minister is king to stick close to 112 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:13,640 Speaker 11: America's pro Israel stance, but he faces major pressure from 113 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 11: his own party to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. 114 00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 11: That's how he ended up putting sanctions on two is 115 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 11: Ready government ministers last week, while also backing the country's 116 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 11: right to self defense. The question for the G seven 117 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 11: is how long in Britain keep up the balancing act 118 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 11: In London. James Worcock Bloomberg Radier. 119 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,880 Speaker 3: Well Canada and Britain will restart trade negotiations as both 120 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 3: countries continue to push for a free trade in response 121 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:45,119 Speaker 3: to America's tariff war postbreaksit. Talks over a Bespoken deal 122 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:47,960 Speaker 3: had stored last year due to a dispute over beef. 123 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:51,359 Speaker 3: Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney says that a deal makes 124 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 3: economic and cultural sense as. 125 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 7: Much much more than in heritage. This is a found issue. 126 00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: Prosperity for honity is going forward and a prosperity based 127 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:09,640 Speaker 1: on those share values expressed through the future of artificial intelligence. 128 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:15,120 Speaker 1: Political liberals in partnerships in security and defense, but all 129 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,119 Speaker 1: issued no sustainable prosperity. 130 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: Or a citizens Connie used to be the UK Central 131 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,240 Speaker 3: Bank Governor before leading the Liberal Party to a sunning 132 00:07:24,280 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 3: electoral victory in April. Connie and UK prominis a Kiss Starmer, 133 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:32,679 Speaker 3: have pushed back on President Donald Trump's assertion that Canada 134 00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 3: should be annexed by the United States. 135 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,360 Speaker 4: Officials say a man suspected of shooting dead a US 136 00:07:38,440 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 4: politician and her husband and wounding two others in Minnesota 137 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:45,080 Speaker 4: is in custody. Detectives have been looking for Vance Bolter 138 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 4: since Democratic state Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark 139 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 4: were killed at their home on Saturday. Democrat Senator John 140 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 4: Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at 141 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,760 Speaker 4: their home nine miles away, but survived. 142 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 3: And last lead to some sports news. The American JJ 143 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 3: Spawn has won the one hundred and twenty fifth US Open, 144 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 3: his first major golf title. The thirty four year old 145 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 3: beat Scotland's Robert MacIntyre by two strokes and was the 146 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 3: only golfer to finish below part after a ninety six 147 00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:20,880 Speaker 3: minute weather delay, NBC Sport captured his winning moment where 148 00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 3: Spawn sunk an incredible sixty four foot birdie putt. 149 00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 10: In one of the most unlikely final round sundays in 150 00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 10: US Open history. JJ Spawn closes the deal with a 151 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 10: bardy at the last. 152 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 3: So that was reaction to the final shots from NBC Sport. 153 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 5: There. 154 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 3: The twenty fifth ranked Spawn had been anything but a 155 00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 3: favorite to capture the tournament, having previously won only once 156 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 3: at the PGA Tour back in twenty twenty two. 157 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,240 Speaker 5: Those are our top stories. 158 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 2: On the markets. 159 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 4: Brent crude is up by one percent this morning, just 160 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 4: shy of seventy five dollars a barrel. The ten year 161 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,079 Speaker 4: treasury yields three basis points are at four point four 162 00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 4: three percent of The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is a tenth 163 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 4: of one percent stronger to the eurostart in the week 164 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 4: at one fifteen forty five, the Mscish Pacific Index four 165 00:09:11,559 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 4: tenths higher, European stock futures pointing lower, though down two 166 00:09:14,440 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 4: tenths for eurostocks fifty now. 167 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,600 Speaker 3: We have full coverage today of the escalating conflict between 168 00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 3: Iran and Israel and the latest on the Middle East, 169 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,199 Speaker 3: but also how markets are viewing the risks now. 170 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 4: And there's plenty to read about this story across our 171 00:09:30,559 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 4: Bloomberg platforms. On Blueberg dot Com a couple of pieces 172 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 4: that I wanted to point to that give you insight 173 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 4: from our reporters in the region as well. Ethan Brunn 174 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 4: are Israel Bureau chief and has been writing about how 175 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 4: people there are feeling about. 176 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:42,679 Speaker 2: This latest escalation. 177 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:45,359 Speaker 4: He says that despite everything that's happened since the October 178 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,439 Speaker 4: seventh attacks and twenty twenty three, the last few days 179 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 4: are on a different scale, pointing to the attacks by 180 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 4: Iran which made it through Israel's air defenses and destroyed 181 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 4: entire city blocks, and he says what there hasn't been 182 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 4: public opinion polling about at the strong anecdotal level evidence 183 00:10:00,400 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 4: is that Israelis, or at least Israeli Jews, who make 184 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 4: up eighty percent of the population, have rallied around the 185 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 4: flag yet again for what could be a long and 186 00:10:08,400 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 4: painful battle. 187 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. Meanwhile, on the Iranian side, Golda Mottavali, who leads 188 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 3: our coverage of Iran, and our Geoonomics analyst Dina s 189 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 3: Vandria have reported on how people in tay Ran have 190 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 3: been reacting. Also on the strategy that Iran's leaders might 191 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,480 Speaker 3: actually try to employ from here, They've spoken to officials 192 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 3: in the region, to analys who have a range of views. 193 00:10:31,200 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 3: Interesting This quote from Chatham House assistant professor, and this 194 00:10:37,280 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 3: is Bada, I'll say, who was assistant professor at Kuwait Universities, 195 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 3: also an associate with Chathamhouse, saying that Iran has been 196 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:49,079 Speaker 3: weakened this past year, but it is not inherently weak, 197 00:10:49,440 --> 00:10:52,360 Speaker 3: especially based on its performance the past few days. I 198 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 3: think that is really quite central to how we think 199 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 3: about this whole conflict and why it has happened at 200 00:10:59,040 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 3: this moment. 201 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 4: Both these articles on Bloomberg dot Com and of the 202 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 4: Terminal of course as well. We'll put a link to 203 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 4: them in our show notes. Well, let's bring you up 204 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:08,719 Speaker 4: to date on the events in the Middle East. Four 205 00:11:08,800 --> 00:11:11,839 Speaker 4: days into this latest escalation and hostilities. Paul Wallace, our 206 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 4: managing editor for Middle East Coverage, joins us. 207 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 2: Now for more. Paul, what is the latest this Monday morning? 208 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 13: At the moment, Israel and Iran are continuing to bombard 209 00:11:22,440 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 13: each other pretty intenseally. There seems to be no let 210 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 13: up yet in these attacks on one another, we've had 211 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:35,320 Speaker 13: more destined Israel overnight in places near Tel Aviv, and 212 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:39,199 Speaker 13: the death all there since the start of hostilities on 213 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,600 Speaker 13: Friday has gone up to about eighteen. 214 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:45,240 Speaker 7: At the same time, Israel continues to hit. 215 00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 13: Targets in Tehran and across mostly western parts of Iran. 216 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:53,520 Speaker 7: So there's growing. 217 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:56,439 Speaker 13: Concern if you like, that this could that this conflict 218 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,040 Speaker 13: could spread to other parts of the Middle East and 219 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:04,400 Speaker 13: potentially start to hit energy supplies, which it hasn't done yet. 220 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 13: You mentioned earlier in the show the gas platform being 221 00:12:08,679 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 13: struck by Israel. 222 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 7: That one is mostly caters to sort of domestic consumption. 223 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:16,319 Speaker 7: It wasn't for exports. 224 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 13: But there's always a possibility that we get disruptions to 225 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,400 Speaker 13: oil and or gas supplies in the region. 226 00:12:24,040 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 3: And that's one of the big concerns, one of them. 227 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:31,120 Speaker 3: What do we know about any diplomatic efforts. Hard to 228 00:12:31,160 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 3: talk about that, as you say, when you think of 229 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 3: the deaths and the ongoing bombardment. But President Trump has 230 00:12:37,600 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 3: called on both sides to make a deal in really 231 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 3: quite contradictory statements that he's. 232 00:12:43,280 --> 00:12:47,199 Speaker 13: Made Exactly I think the keyword there is contradictory. It's 233 00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:51,199 Speaker 13: almost as if President Trump doesn't exactly know what he 234 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,640 Speaker 13: wants at the stage or what he can do at 235 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 13: this stage. On the one hand, he has said he 236 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:02,520 Speaker 13: wants a deal between Iran and Israel, suggesting he's pushing 237 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 13: for a ceasefire quickly. On the other hand, he has 238 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 13: talked about how America might get involved in, presumably in 239 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 13: Israel strikes on Iran. So far, what America is doing 240 00:13:14,320 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 13: is helping Israel defensively. It's helping intercept the drones and 241 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 13: missiles that Iran is firing at Israel. But it hasn't, 242 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 13: at least publicly. It's saying this, It is not taking 243 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 13: part in any offensive measures against Iran. But there you 244 00:13:30,960 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 13: have Trump, you know, sort of suggesting he might do that, 245 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 13: and all at the same time he's saying that he 246 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 13: can still strike. 247 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 7: A nuclear deal with Iran. 248 00:13:40,280 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 13: These you know, nuclear negotiations that have been seemingly scuppered 249 00:13:44,240 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 13: by this conflict that erupted on Friday. So it's difficult 250 00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 13: to know what Trump wants at the stage. I think 251 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 13: he is the key player when it comes to international actors. 252 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 13: He's much more important than any of the Arab states 253 00:13:58,720 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 13: or any of the European states. 254 00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:03,320 Speaker 7: I think one thing to point out. 255 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 13: Is that Israel is very much saying that this is 256 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 13: going to continue for several days at least, and I 257 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 13: don't think you know, there are no signals at all 258 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 13: that Israel intends to stop it strikes on Iranian military 259 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 13: and intelligence and nuclear sites within the next few days. 260 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:25,640 Speaker 2: I mentioned a few minutes ago. 261 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 4: I think Brannin's reporting from Israel about the public opinion 262 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 4: in support of this latest offense of on Iran. But 263 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:38,080 Speaker 4: how much political support does benjaminessanniaw who have to escalate 264 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 4: this conflict further on top of of course Israel's other 265 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 4: military interventions, including in Gaza. 266 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 7: That's a good question. 267 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 13: For now, it really does seem like the majority of 268 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 13: Israeli's back what he's doing with Iran, and they see 269 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 13: it as a necessary measure. I think most Israelis's, fair 270 00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 13: to say, do view Iran as an existential threat, and 271 00:15:02,720 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 13: they were extremely worried about its nuclear program. So for 272 00:15:06,080 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 13: now they seem to be on board, but of course 273 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 13: they are worry about this going on for much longer. 274 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 13: The death toll, as I mentioned, is roughly eighteen. That 275 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 13: might not seem like much, but Let's remember there were 276 00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:27,080 Speaker 13: very few casualties when Iran struck Israel twice last year. 277 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,960 Speaker 13: The figure was just two or three. We're you know, 278 00:15:30,560 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 13: we're you know, we're up to eighteen already. That will 279 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 13: rise in Iran. Far more people so far have died. 280 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 13: It's difficult. 281 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,800 Speaker 7: The official toll there is not updated. 282 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 13: So often, but it's over two hundred people according to 283 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 13: the government, that have been killed. 284 00:15:47,120 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 7: So far there. 285 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 13: You also have a big question as to what the 286 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 13: population will do, whether they'll rally around the government, or 287 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:58,480 Speaker 13: whether this will do the opposite, which is what Israel hopes, 288 00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:00,800 Speaker 13: which is lead to a situation where the Ranian people 289 00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 13: turn on their government. That's something that Israel is clearly 290 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,960 Speaker 13: hoping for. We just don't know which way it will 291 00:16:07,000 --> 00:16:07,440 Speaker 13: go yet. 292 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 3: Indeed, it's what Benjamin Letnia who called for Iranian people 293 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,160 Speaker 3: to do, isn't it in his televised address. 294 00:16:15,560 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 5: Thank you so much, Paul for being with us. 295 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 3: Paul Wallace is our managing editor for Middle East coverage, 296 00:16:20,280 --> 00:16:23,080 Speaker 3: joining us this morning. Meanwhile, all prices, of course, have 297 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 3: continued to rise over the weekend after a big spike 298 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,760 Speaker 3: that we saw on Friday. Stephen Stepchinski leads our energy 299 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 3: team in Asia and joins us. Now for more on 300 00:16:32,200 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 3: this part of the story, Just tell us about how 301 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,680 Speaker 3: energy markets are thinking. 302 00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:38,120 Speaker 5: About this now. 303 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 3: At the start of this week, as we saw a 304 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 3: massive spike in prices that then ease somewhat on Friday, 305 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:45,239 Speaker 3: what about now. 306 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 14: Ye, I mean, I think the main thing that the 307 00:16:48,200 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 14: market will be watching will be any impact on physical 308 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 14: oil flows. And while we have seen a back and 309 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 14: forth on strikes between Israel and Iran, and Israel has 310 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 14: targeted some energy infrastructure, which is a gas processing plant 311 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:07,680 Speaker 14: connected to their offshore field, oil production hasn't been affected, 312 00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 14: So okay, no near term impact, No need to worry 313 00:17:11,440 --> 00:17:14,359 Speaker 14: about right now, whether or not OPEC Plus is able 314 00:17:14,400 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 14: to meet increase their supply to cover for Iran. That 315 00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 14: was one of the worries coming out of Friday. That 316 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,560 Speaker 14: was one of the worries about prices spiking, sort of 317 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:26,159 Speaker 14: that kind of immediate impact because Iran is still a 318 00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:28,639 Speaker 14: major producer of oil and while they're sanctioned by the 319 00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:31,920 Speaker 14: United States, they still do ship some on shadow fleet 320 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 14: vessels in China being one of the large buyers. Now, 321 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 14: the next thing the market has been sort of worried 322 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 14: about is shutting of the straits of Horror Moves. If 323 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,159 Speaker 14: the Straight of Horn Moves is shut, you know that straight. 324 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:48,280 Speaker 14: It's a conduit for thirty percent of oil supply, seaborne 325 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 14: oil supply twenty percent of global LNG supply, So shutting 326 00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:55,360 Speaker 14: it would result in a price shock. JP Morgan said, 327 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:58,320 Speaker 14: you could see oil prices branch jump to one hundred 328 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:00,800 Speaker 14: and thirty dollars compared to about seventy file five dollars 329 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:05,119 Speaker 14: right now. But taking a weekend to digest everything, it 330 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 14: doesn't seem like it would be in Iran's best interest 331 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:13,160 Speaker 14: to play that card. One, it's physically difficult to shut 332 00:18:13,200 --> 00:18:16,560 Speaker 14: the Straight. You're already seeing Saudi Arabia reaching out and 333 00:18:16,600 --> 00:18:19,159 Speaker 14: speaking with Iran. Likely this is one of the topics 334 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 14: that they discuss. China is a major buyer of oil 335 00:18:22,359 --> 00:18:25,359 Speaker 14: from that region, and shutting the Straight would hurt China. 336 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 14: China would obviously put pressure on Iran as well if 337 00:18:28,680 --> 00:18:31,159 Speaker 14: the Straight were to shut. So at the moment, a 338 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:34,040 Speaker 14: worst case scenario hasn't played out. Yes, there is a 339 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 14: risk premium and oil. We're still up about eight percent 340 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 14: compared to where we started on Thursday before the strikes. 341 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 14: Began against Iran, but the market is I guess in 342 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 14: a weird kind of ease, wait and see sort of 343 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,880 Speaker 14: situation to see what happens next. It's certainly not done, 344 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 14: there is the situation between the two countries isn't improving, 345 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,879 Speaker 14: but at the same time, oil doesn't seem to be 346 00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,160 Speaker 14: hit quite yet. 347 00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 4: Stephen, how you mentioned the attack on the gas field 348 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 4: there as well, and that's I suppose a different part 349 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 4: of the Iranian energy complex that we don't focus on 350 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 4: as much because. 351 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:09,280 Speaker 2: Of the oil part. 352 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 4: But I wonder how significant that is and sort of 353 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 4: broadly how that feeds into the question of energy makes 354 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:16,280 Speaker 4: in Iran. 355 00:19:17,320 --> 00:19:19,280 Speaker 14: Yeah, so it is important. 356 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,679 Speaker 2: It's it's a it's a very key piece. 357 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:26,560 Speaker 14: Of infrastructure for Iran, not for the global market, unlike Katar, 358 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,159 Speaker 14: which so they developed the same field, right, there are 359 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:33,480 Speaker 14: two pieces of this field. Cutar exports their energy exports 360 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 14: that gas is energy from the field. Iran processes it 361 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:42,720 Speaker 14: and consumes it domestically. So there's no impact on global 362 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,240 Speaker 14: gas markets, but there is an impact on Iran as 363 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 14: a country, you know, powering themselves, making sure they have 364 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:51,600 Speaker 14: their own enough energy for themselves, making sure that their 365 00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:54,119 Speaker 14: economy continue running. It is an issue that they're going 366 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 14: to have to grapple with and try to find replacements there. 367 00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 2: So you know, you you look at. 368 00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 14: This and this is it seems to be a strategic 369 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:08,880 Speaker 14: decision by Israel to cripple around while avoiding a wider 370 00:20:08,960 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 14: global price spike in energy. 371 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,040 Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the 372 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 4: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond. 373 00:20:18,440 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 3: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify, 374 00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:24,399 Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 375 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 4: You can also listen live each morning on London Dab Radio, 376 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,280 Speaker 4: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com. 377 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 3: Our flagship New York station is also available on your 378 00:20:33,119 --> 00:20:37,840 Speaker 3: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 379 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 2: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll. 380 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,520 Speaker 4: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you 381 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,280 Speaker 4: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg day 382 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 4: Break Europe.