Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics
Speaker 1: where we discuss the top political headlines with some of
Speaker 1: today's best minds. And the North Carolina Senate has banned
Speaker 1: wearing masks in public places. We have such a great
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Speaker 1: talks to us about the new economic numbers and what
Speaker 1: we can expect from the US economy in the coming months.
Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin about the
Speaker 1: races that will determine what our government looks like in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. But first we have the host of
Speaker 1: the Time of Monsters the Nations ged here. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to Fast Politics, ged.
Speaker 2: Here, and good to be back.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about it. It's Supreme Court season aka watching
Speaker 1: six lunatics remake our federal government in the image of
Speaker 1: the Koch Brothers.
Speaker 2: Discuss actually like today, there was a little bit of
Speaker 2: good news because there was the kind of fear that
Speaker 2: the courts would follow the attempt of the Fifth Circuit
Speaker 2: to basically run their like large price of the government
Speaker 2: illegal and then return America the glory days of child labor.
Speaker 1: That's still on the agenda.
Speaker 2: But they decided today. It was out that day, So
Speaker 2: what is grateful for whatever small verses by can offer us,
Speaker 2: that's a more positive sign. What were the other cases?
Speaker 1: There are more cases coming. I want you to sort
Speaker 1: of talk us through. You wrote this piece about the
Speaker 1: anti war movement needing to claim its victories, So talk
Speaker 1: to us about what that means, because I do think
Speaker 1: there's been a really interesting shift in American life when
Speaker 1: it comes to being against foreign wars.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, that's actually absolutely a really good point. But
Speaker 2: I think on the current stuff, a lot of people
Speaker 2: are very mad at Biden, and I'm one of them.
Speaker 2: Support of what ness Hiwu's governments has been doing has
Speaker 2: been above and beyond is a con for like many months,
Speaker 2: and he should have acted earlier, but it is all
Speaker 2: the more striking considering who he is and his history
Speaker 2: on this issue. He is taking steps that no previous
Speaker 2: American president has in terms of cutting back on sending
Speaker 2: weapons now, so leaving this ideal should have happened sooner.
Speaker 2: It is happening, and I don't think it would have
Speaker 2: happened if it weren't for you know, the protests that
Speaker 2: we're seeing not just on campuses, but earlier the end
Speaker 2: committed move in. So I think Biden realizes this coalition
Speaker 2: isn't behind him on this. And the polling is quite striking.
Speaker 2: I mean, this majority close to the Israeli war in Gaza,
Speaker 2: but it's a super majority among Democrats. People voted for
Speaker 2: Biden in twenty twenty. You're looking at like, you know,
Speaker 2: depending on the poll, seventy seventy five percent of post
Speaker 2: the anti war movement deserves credit and they should push on.
Speaker 2: I think that what he want to hear is among
Speaker 2: some people is almost self sabotage of like oh, you know,
Speaker 2: like it's so tiny, he doesn't really read it. He's
Speaker 2: going to reverse it. And the attitude, well it's too little,
Speaker 2: too late, as he like an an ongoing political moment.
Speaker 2: Like I think that's the wrong attitude. I think you
Speaker 2: have to say, like, okay, this guy is starting to
Speaker 2: listen to us, something that Donald Trump would never do.
Speaker 2: By the way, and of course we got to push
Speaker 2: him more. We've got to push him far there. We're
Speaker 2: not gonna like relent on pushing him, but he has
Speaker 2: moving forward, and we have to like, you know, create
Speaker 2: an incentive structure so that Biden knows that you know,
Speaker 2: if he wants to get the approval. He's getting some approval.
Speaker 2: Now you'll get even more if he goes further. My
Speaker 2: piece of really criticizing the sort of self sabotage of
Speaker 2: people within the movement that are like trying to deny
Speaker 2: the significance of what we're seeing, because I actually do
Speaker 2: think it's it's pretty significant where Biden is going, and
Speaker 2: I think we're probably gonna see more of that, and
Speaker 2: I would have I think, you know, beyond Biden, like
Speaker 2: there's a lot of indication that people in the broader administration,
Speaker 2: include the State devironment, aren't very happy with what Israel
Speaker 2: is doing. You know, I think what has to reach
Speaker 2: out to those people and create conditions where they feel
Speaker 2: emboldened to speak out it and they feel embolded.
Speaker 1: That but there was a real aggressive when today on marijuana.
Speaker 1: Will you talk a.
Speaker 2: Little bit about that again, This is something actually somebody's
Speaker 2: very related to, like Israel, in the sense of like,
Speaker 2: you know, there's something that I might feel like, well,
Speaker 2: Biden is done is a little bit earlier. There's a
Speaker 2: little bit people have been pushing him to do for
Speaker 2: like a long time. I think Biden's history and who
Speaker 2: he is is maybe pertinent to this. It's maybe not
Speaker 2: something that comes natural to him for like a bunch
Speaker 2: of reasons, including I think personal reasons. Having said that,
Speaker 2: he is someone who can be pushed, he's something someone
Speaker 2: who can be moved, And to me, like that's the
Speaker 2: most pertinent political lesson to be learned from this.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so too. And I actually think like
Speaker 1: we've seen this with other things in Biden world, where
Speaker 1: he sort of makes this choice to do the more
Speaker 1: progressive thing, and it's quite cool. I mean with the
Speaker 1: marijuana staff, that's something that pretty much across the board
Speaker 1: people really support and could be meaningful in all sorts
Speaker 1: of ways.
Speaker 2: Oh no, absolutely no, it's gonna like materially make people's
Speaker 2: lives better. It is something that has like super majority
Speaker 2: of support. And I have to ask myself, you know
Speaker 2: where the popular stat you know, like there's a whole
Speaker 2: wing of these sort of Savai political consultants and strategists.
Speaker 2: He were saying, Yo, we have to do the popular thing.
Speaker 2: This is like doing the popular thing, although they were
Speaker 2: for some weird reason, they never foregrounded this issue as
Speaker 2: one of the popular things to do. I will also
Speaker 2: mention a lot of the student dead reliefs that we've
Speaker 2: been seeing. The only thing I would maybe say is,
Speaker 2: you know, I'd like to see the White House get
Speaker 2: a little bit more on front on some of this stuff,
Speaker 2: where to maybe call us this more into like a
Speaker 2: message of like see what we're doing. And for whatever reason,
Speaker 2: like that little bit is not quite coalescing, although that
Speaker 2: could change, is you know, the election heats up here.
Speaker 1: We are, we're ten thousand days from this election. We're
Speaker 1: all gonna die. All anyone talks about is freaking out
Speaker 1: about out this whole thing. Jesse just said, one hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy three days. No, Jesse, it's ten thousand days.
Speaker 1: Give us a little good news.
Speaker 2: Well, actually, I think like even in some of the
Speaker 2: bad news people are reporting, I think there is a
Speaker 2: kind of good news because I noticed that, like all,
Speaker 2: you know, like there were some polls showing Biden is
Speaker 2: behind in the swing stage, but those same polls show
Speaker 2: that the actually Democratic candidates for the Senate in those
Speaker 2: places are doing well and are overperforming Biden. Now, if
Speaker 2: you think about it, like are there really people that
Speaker 2: are going to in vast numbers vote for a Democratic
Speaker 2: senatorial candidate and.
Speaker 1: Leave the top of the ticket blank.
Speaker 2: It seems crazy, Yeah, are going to vote for Biden?
Speaker 3: I don't really know.
Speaker 1: We want Trump, yeah exactly.
Speaker 2: So I actually think that what those polling shows is
Speaker 2: I think, like the Democratic agenda is popular. You know,
Speaker 2: that's congruent with what we saw in the mid terms
Speaker 2: and what we've seen in special elections, and that a
Speaker 2: lot of the poor polling that Biden's having, it's just
Speaker 2: people registering their dissatisfaction, Like they're gonna vote for Biden,
Speaker 2: but they don't want to say so right now because
Speaker 2: they're mad at him. We're disappointed them for various reasons.
Speaker 2: So I actually think, if you know, if I don't
Speaker 2: encourage anyone to be obsessed with the polls at all.
Speaker 1: Especially one hundred and seventy three days aft.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you are like actually like look at
Speaker 2: the fact that, hey, you know, like the Democratic Party
Speaker 2: is in good shape, and ask to yourself, if the
Speaker 2: party is in good shape, what is the likely results
Speaker 2: for the top figure. The other I think kind of
Speaker 2: good news is like the debate stuff, which I thought
Speaker 2: was a really smart move.
Speaker 1: I hear you're free on Wednesdays.
Speaker 2: You know, they're going to have fairly early debates. I think,
Speaker 2: contrary to popular wisdom, Biden does well and then Trump
Speaker 2: as he does poorly. And I actually think that fairly
Speaker 2: early on the starkness of the choice between Biden and
Speaker 2: Trump is going to become a parent and I think
Speaker 2: that's actually going to start narrowing this thing and solidifying. You. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I actually think like overall, you know, I don't. I
Speaker 2: would not say people should be terrified. I think that
Speaker 2: it's going to be like a tight election. People are
Speaker 2: gonna have to pull things together.
Speaker 1: You'd rather be the Dems than the Republicans, I think so. Yes,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump sits in a courthouse right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean that's the other thing. But you know,
Speaker 2: we've seen the Republicans embrace of Trump, and I think
Speaker 2: that's come with some political costs. But like the extent
Speaker 2: that they're embracing him now, not just that Trump's in
Speaker 2: the courthouse, but like all these party leaders are joining
Speaker 2: him the courthouse and are joining him to like insult
Speaker 2: the judge.
Speaker 1: I think that hurts him. I think it hurts the
Speaker 1: party if you want to keep the House.
Speaker 2: And yeah, ways, I don't think we can measure yet,
Speaker 2: but I think that, you know, the full extent that
Speaker 2: they've embraced not just Trump, but Trump's criminality, that's going
Speaker 2: to have a lasting legacy. I mean I think, like,
Speaker 2: you know, like January sixth had a lasting legacy, and
Speaker 2: that's why the Dems overperformed in the rich terms. And
Speaker 2: like this is like, you know, this is kind of
Speaker 2: a variation on January sixth. It's an open defiance of
Speaker 2: the rule of law. And I think there's a lot
Speaker 2: of people, you know, might not agree with the Dems
Speaker 2: on all political things, but they kind of understand the
Speaker 2: United States has to be like a nation of laws,
Speaker 2: and like what Trump is doing now it's like you're
Speaker 2: staring into the abyss of being like, you know, like
Speaker 2: let's go to court anarchy, you know.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about Donald Trump in court. Right now,
Speaker 1: his former lawyer is being cross examined by his current lawyer,
Speaker 1: Todd Blande, who is a prosecutor. I mean, this is
Speaker 1: this weird moment in Trump world where Trump has actually
Speaker 1: gotten pretty good lawyers and now he's making them be
Speaker 1: bad lawyers by bossing them around.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do mean this is one reason why usually
Speaker 2: he has bad lawyers because they're the ones that put
Speaker 2: up with it. Oh, I mean it's interesting. I've thought
Speaker 2: about this a little bit, Like it is interesting that
Speaker 2: the one place you can get good lawyers is in
Speaker 2: a kind of criminal case. That's maybe because he's more
Speaker 2: used to like that kind of legal scenario than he
Speaker 2: is with some of the more issues of constitutional law
Speaker 2: or election law, that he's deafliped with this kind of
Speaker 2: case involving you know, sort of mafio. So like kickbacks
Speaker 2: and favors is Donald Trump's terrain. But having said that, like, yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm not super optimistic about this as a legal case,
Speaker 2: Like I think it's actually kind of hard to draw
Speaker 2: these ways in which they can attack the witnesses.
Speaker 1: It's a little hanky.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah. But having said that, I mean, like, you know,
Speaker 2: if anyone's gonna sabotage a legal case.
Speaker 1: It's going to be Donald Trump, right, It's true.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, no, I you know, his recording court
Speaker 2: has left been that great. I mean you have, especially
Speaker 2: what considers all the court cases that were brought coming
Speaker 2: out of the twenty twenty election. So yeah, I actually
Speaker 2: think it's kind of been fascinating to watch and maybe
Speaker 2: the root of all this is that he's always felt
Speaker 2: he's been about the law, and unfortunately for most of
Speaker 2: his life he's been right. Like, how many things has
Speaker 2: this guy done that are like, you know, borderline criminal
Speaker 2: or criminal that we're never brought up, we'll never know.
Speaker 2: It's a lot and this sense of impunity. I can
Speaker 2: do what I want, I can the judges. That's really
Speaker 2: a product of a lifetime. But have you said that.
Speaker 2: I think very ordinary people watching this stuff, you know,
Speaker 2: like I can't feel that they would be very sepulate
Speaker 2: to Trump. And I think that, you know, there's like
Speaker 2: this fundamental attack on the rule of law, not just
Speaker 2: why what he did criminally, but by the attacks on
Speaker 2: the judges and the political attacks. I think that's going
Speaker 2: to resonate.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think so much about how he
Speaker 1: thinks he's doing something brilliant here by making this case
Speaker 1: about law and not about his criminality, and like it's
Speaker 1: worked for him with the primary voters, who are so
Speaker 1: predisposed to him that they'll pretty much go along with anything.
Speaker 1: But I'm not convinced that you can win anyone else
Speaker 1: who doesn't have total Trump derangement syndrome.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I think that's right. I think that
Speaker 2: he's decided to make it in a way that people
Speaker 2: have to choose, like, you know, do they go into
Speaker 2: the Trump culture or do they like go along with
Speaker 2: the normal reality that they've lived in their own life.
Speaker 2: That's helped win the primaries, is not people that were
Speaker 2: already in the Trump call that if that's the choice,
Speaker 2: then he wins. But like if you're putting into the
Speaker 2: broader public, no, I don't think he wins. And in fact,
Speaker 2: I think it will remind people why they don't like him,
Speaker 2: which I think is actually very important. I think, like,
Speaker 2: you know, he's been out of the spot like long
Speaker 2: enough that some people have forgotten. Maybe it's start the
Speaker 2: big takeaway of the court cases, Like it's a big
Speaker 2: reminder of why you do not want this guy that
Speaker 2: I does. You know, why he's a bad and dangerous fan.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but it is interesting to see members of Congress,
Speaker 1: the Speaker of the United States has representatives people for
Speaker 1: whom they should know better up there being like this
Speaker 1: is our guy.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 2: No, you know what it reminded me of, Like as
Speaker 2: a New Yorker, you'll remember mister Gotti, well respected businessman,
Speaker 2: a member of the community and was a very stricting thing.
Speaker 2: That's like, you know, because he was a bobster with
Speaker 2: as certain support in the community, there were people who
Speaker 2: rallied to him. She's like, this is very similar, except that,
Speaker 2: you know, like it's not just like a small community
Speaker 2: in New York. It's like the weight of like, you know,
Speaker 2: one of the two major political parties on one level. Like,
Speaker 2: to me, this is the threat, right, the threat of
Speaker 2: a trump pized Republican party that shares his contempt for law.
Speaker 2: And that's a scary thing. But I think that's also
Speaker 2: something Joe Biden can run on. Everything is already in
Speaker 2: very stark relief, and one of the things Democrats have
Speaker 2: to do is to just make sure everyone in America
Speaker 2: knows this is the choice.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I agree, a really good point.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about Eric Adams for two minutes. Sure, he's
Speaker 1: our mayor in New York whatever. He was recently in
Speaker 1: Rome with the Pope. Can you just make it make sense?
Speaker 2: Well, I guess Eric Addam likes to see himself as
Speaker 2: an international figure. I mean it is a kind of
Speaker 2: perhaps charming thing. I actually remember, like he's running for Rayre.
Speaker 2: He said that he had wanted to be buried in Israel,
Speaker 2: and people asked where, and he said the goal at Heights,
Speaker 2: which is actually disputed territory, or is actually Syrian territory.
Speaker 2: So I guess New York has a very international mayor.
Speaker 2: But perhaps the other thing is, like, you know what,
Speaker 2: you're as widely hated as Eric Adams is, having so
Speaker 2: much trouble domestically, maybe you go abroad. That's what sort
Speaker 2: of presidents who are trouble often do. It happens that
Speaker 2: I guess if you're aware of New York, you can
Speaker 2: do the same thing exactly.
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, Thank you jet here, thank you Spring is here.
Speaker 1: And I bet you are trying to look fashionable, So
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Speaker 1: We just opened a news store with all new designs
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Speaker 1: To grab some, head to Fastpolitics dot com. Dan Nathan
Speaker 1: is the host of the On the Tape podcast and
Speaker 1: a c NBC Fast Money contributor.
Speaker 3: Dan Nathan my John Cast.
Speaker 1: Welcome. I am so happy to have you here. You
Speaker 1: know you're like one of my people.
Speaker 4: Well you know you're one of my must listens to
Speaker 4: three times a week on Fast Politics. So it is
Speaker 4: my sincere pleasure to be on with you this week.
Speaker 1: So let us talk about all of the economic news yesterday,
Speaker 1: because there was a lot on Wednesday. We had like
Speaker 1: a number of numbers. So explain to us what all
Speaker 1: those numbers were, sort of break it down for us.
Speaker 3: All right, let's do it, okay, So listen.
Speaker 4: You know, I'm mostly focused on the markets, and a
Speaker 4: lot of this economic data that comes out almost every
Speaker 4: day is important to how investors perceive the health of
Speaker 4: the economy, and thus they expressed those views in the markets,
Speaker 4: whether it be the stock market, whether they be the
Speaker 4: bond market, commodities and a like. So yesterday was the
Speaker 4: April CPI reading, that's the main reading for inflation. It
Speaker 4: came in slightly below expectations, but it's still up three
Speaker 4: point four percent year over year, right, And you could say, well,
Speaker 4: that's good, because I remember a year and a half
Speaker 4: ago those inflation readings were coming in north of nine
Speaker 4: percent or so.
Speaker 3: But here's the problem. Disinflation.
Speaker 4: While it's great for you know, most consumers, it's still
Speaker 4: really bad for a lot of consumers. So at three
Speaker 4: point four percent. That is up year over year, right,
Speaker 4: so if you're spending on a whole host of things,
Speaker 4: it's still up. It's down from the highs, you know,
Speaker 4: almost two years ago, but it's still up. There was
Speaker 4: also some data out there on retail sales which were
Speaker 4: weaker than expected. So the longer that you have periods
Speaker 4: of high inflation, right sooner or later, it's going to
Speaker 4: weigh on consumer confidence and retail sales. And that's what
Speaker 4: we're seeing here a little bit. And we also have
Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was out earlier in the
Speaker 4: week basically saying that interest rates are going to remain
Speaker 4: higher for probably a little longer than they had expected
Speaker 4: because they're still trying to battle high levels of inflation
Speaker 4: with high interest rates, which is also weighing on a
Speaker 4: certain set of consumers that use basically credit to finance
Speaker 4: a whole host of different purchases.
Speaker 1: And also people want to buy houses. I mean, the
Speaker 1: fundamental problem here, I feel like is we're in a
Speaker 1: kind of mobi a strip which is high inflation makes
Speaker 1: interest rates higher. High interest rates makes it impossible to
Speaker 1: buy a house. Air go, you have housing being more expensive.
Speaker 1: The only way to get that number down is probably
Speaker 1: to cut interest rates.
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and if they start to cut interest rates
Speaker 4: too early, you run the risk of basically inflation heating
Speaker 4: back up again. So it is a bit of a
Speaker 4: conundrum that the Federal Reserve has right now. There are
Speaker 4: massive political implications for this. You know, a lot of
Speaker 4: folks think that if the Fed could just kind of
Speaker 4: wave their wand in lower interest rates, that that's going
Speaker 4: to help a certain sort of consumer here. But the
Speaker 4: truth is it might cause oil to go back higher, right,
Speaker 4: it might cause you know, some of these rents to
Speaker 4: go back. I mean, there's a whole host of things here.
Speaker 4: So that whole conundrum about being able to buy a
Speaker 4: house because mortgage rates are so high, or a car,
Speaker 4: you run the risk of okay, rent being higher than
Speaker 4: you know, the cost of rent is greater right now,
Speaker 4: for the.
Speaker 3: First time in a very long time, than the cost
Speaker 3: of buying.
Speaker 4: A house, right So there's a whole host of things
Speaker 4: that kind of play into this, and none of them
Speaker 4: are playing particularly well for the Biden administration right now.
Speaker 4: So that's one of the reasons why you don't hear
Speaker 4: them talk a whole heck of a lot about their
Speaker 4: kind of you know, inclination for lower interest rates. We
Speaker 4: know that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren came out, i
Speaker 4: want to say, a couple months ago with an open
Speaker 4: letter to fed share Pal suggesting that they better lower
Speaker 4: rates soon. I don't think those two know what they're
Speaker 4: talking about at the moment right now, because the worst
Speaker 4: thing that could happen for the Biden administration into the
Speaker 4: November election is that you know, you see inflation picked
Speaker 4: back up, and that really going to hurt a voting
Speaker 4: block in Middle America or in certain social economic you
Speaker 4: know what I mean sort of demos that they really
Speaker 4: need to win the reelection here and again, So there's
Speaker 4: no easy answer right now.
Speaker 1: The thing about the interest rates problem is, and I
Speaker 1: think this is really what Chairman Powell is worried about,
Speaker 1: is that if you cut interest rates too soon, you
Speaker 1: really could end up just kicking inflation back. I mean,
Speaker 1: even though people hate inflation and they're not happy with
Speaker 1: it relatively speaking, and again, this doesn't make people who
Speaker 1: can't buy a house feel better. It's been bad, but
Speaker 1: it hasn't crashed us into a recession, which a lot
Speaker 1: of people were worried it would.
Speaker 3: No doubt about it.
Speaker 4: But in certain swaths of the American public, they feel
Speaker 4: like they're deeply in a recession. And all you have
Speaker 4: to do is go back and look at some of
Speaker 4: the comments that you heard from McDonald's, from Starbucks, from Disney.
Speaker 4: I mean, the list goes on and on these consumer
Speaker 4: oriented companies, and you could say, well, Disney is consumer discretionary.
Speaker 4: If you're spending seven dollars for a latte on a
Speaker 4: daily basis, you could trade down to the food truck
Speaker 4: on the.
Speaker 3: Corner at a dollar.
Speaker 4: But when McDonald's talks about their consumers trading down from
Speaker 4: five or six dollars, value meals where are they trading
Speaker 4: down to, right, And so that is the consumer that
Speaker 4: you're really worried about. So you know, lowering interest rates
Speaker 4: right now probably doesn't do a whole heck of a
Speaker 4: lot because you have to look at the rate that
Speaker 4: basically Fed funds or the ten year rate where lots
Speaker 4: of other instruments are priced off of, relative to inflation. Right,
Speaker 4: So if the Fed funds rate it's at five and
Speaker 4: a half percent and inflation still running at three point
Speaker 4: four percent, the rate of two point one or whatever
Speaker 4: is not that restrictive right now, So you think they
Speaker 4: should I think they have to stay pat They are
Speaker 4: worried about inflation becoming entrenched in the economy, and every
Speaker 4: day is whether it's wages, whether it's you know, a
Speaker 4: whole host of other input costs, you know, whether it
Speaker 4: be shipping, whether it be energy, oil in the like here.
Speaker 4: If it becomes entrenched in the economy the way it
Speaker 4: did in the seventies, and you have lower than trend growth,
Speaker 4: then you have something called stagflation, which you.
Speaker 3: And I have not heard a whole heckle a lot
Speaker 3: about stagflation.
Speaker 1: Is the nightmare. Talk to us about stagflation.
Speaker 4: Right, And really, what that would mean is that these
Speaker 4: higher prices become entrench in the economy. Companies have to
Speaker 4: try to pass through those higher costs to consumers. Consumers
Speaker 4: pull back in their spending, causing less than expected growth.
Speaker 4: But then ultimately the consumer hits a wall. Corporations hit
Speaker 4: a wall. They can't pass through prices anymore to their customers.
Speaker 4: They start laying people off. And just remember we have
Speaker 4: unemployment rate below four percent, that's still at a fifty
Speaker 4: or fifty five year low, right, So then all of
Speaker 4: a sudden you have unemployment start to tick up, right,
Speaker 4: and so all of this is really a very negative
Speaker 4: sort of cycle that can happen in the economy.
Speaker 3: Those are the sort of worst scenarios, and.
Speaker 1: That's what killed Carter.
Speaker 3: Correct.
Speaker 1: Stagflation is what killed Jimmy Carter, among other things, and
Speaker 1: it is the nightmare scenario that was very hard to
Speaker 1: get out of. And it seems very likely that we
Speaker 1: will not hit into stagflation at this point.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, who knows, you know, at this point.
Speaker 4: And again, a lot of this might be messaging. If
Speaker 4: you look at the way that Biden is polling on
Speaker 4: the economy relative to a potential Trump administration, you know,
Speaker 4: he's not doing particularly well despite the fact that they've
Speaker 4: had a number of really you know, great legislative wins
Speaker 4: as it relates to the economy.
Speaker 3: Think about the Chip sack and the like.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I want you to pause back and talk
Speaker 1: about stagflation for a minute. You know, Yes, the Biden
Speaker 1: administration is not breaking through on messaging when it comes
Speaker 1: to the economy. But I feel like I'm more curious
Speaker 1: about what you think the Fed should do to kind
Speaker 1: of pull us out of this, or do you think
Speaker 1: it's better just a way.
Speaker 3: No, I think the Fed they're doing their job.
Speaker 4: They did the right thing by raising interest rates right
Speaker 4: relative to the pace of inflation. And I think the
Speaker 4: fact that they are not willing to kind of drop
Speaker 4: the mic and put up a mission impossible sort of
Speaker 4: sign makes a lot of sense right here, because if
Speaker 4: the first three months of this year were any indication
Speaker 4: you know, about the potential for a reflation right and
Speaker 4: the disinflation of inflation, I know there was a.
Speaker 3: Lot there, Like that is what their big worry is.
Speaker 4: And so to me, keeping the rate high right has
Speaker 4: the potential of slowing down the economy, which is essentially
Speaker 4: what they want to do, right. They want to slower
Speaker 4: the pace of jobs growth, They're starting to do that.
Speaker 4: They want to slower the pace of consumption, they're starting
Speaker 4: to do that, right, And so the idea of taking
Speaker 4: their foot off the pedal right now, then you run
Speaker 4: the risk of basically lowering interest rates causing inflation to
Speaker 4: get going again, making you know, just kind of financial
Speaker 4: conditions that much easier. And then you run the risk
Speaker 4: of basically inflating a bubble in risk assets too. And
Speaker 4: don't think for a second that the stock market, the
Speaker 4: housing market don't play into this because the wealth effect
Speaker 4: that created by the stock market at all time highs
Speaker 4: and housing market, you know, at unusually high levels, you know,
Speaker 4: creates this situation where you know, no one can see
Speaker 4: an end in sight to risk asset inflation, and then
Speaker 4: you run the risk of it popping like we had
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two and a bear market.
Speaker 1: So it really is a very delicate dance to try
Speaker 1: to lower inflation for the consumer because you know, for
Speaker 1: the people in the middle of the country, for whom
Speaker 1: McDonald's is now, you know, twenty percent of the budget
Speaker 1: as opposed to fifteen or whatever that looks like, and
Speaker 1: not get into one of these really dangerous cycles. But
Speaker 1: part of the fundamental problem with this economy is still
Speaker 1: that it's too good.
Speaker 4: Yeah well, I mean, listen, you're going to hear this
Speaker 4: term all this time hot on Financial TV. That is
Speaker 4: a sort of Goldilock situation in a way. I mean,
Speaker 4: corporate profits are doing very well. The ability to pass
Speaker 4: through these price increases has been good for their margins
Speaker 4: and good for profitability. But you know, just this morning,
Speaker 4: this is Thursday morning, as we're recording it, Walmart's earnings
Speaker 4: are out. The stock is at a new all time
Speaker 4: high nearly six percent. The headline is Walmart sales surge
Speaker 4: as wealthy shoppers flock to retailers. So think about that.
Speaker 4: There's a trade down in the wealth level of their shoppers.
Speaker 4: So people are starting to feel it. They're looking for value,
Speaker 4: and those sorts of things have the ability to kind
Speaker 4: of creep up and then have an effect, you know
Speaker 4: what I mean on the economy all at once. You
Speaker 4: have two thirds of our economy the GDP comes from
Speaker 4: the consumer. So the warning signs are there that the
Speaker 4: consumer is slowing at a time where unemployment is still
Speaker 4: really low, and that sort of ingredient with high inflation
Speaker 4: and high interest rates have the potential to cause an
Speaker 4: economic downturn.
Speaker 3: You mentioned it.
Speaker 4: A lot of folks coming into twenty twenty three were
Speaker 4: convinced that we were going to have a recession. We
Speaker 4: never did. The FED was getting ready to ease policy,
Speaker 4: but then inflation picked back up. And you know, we
Speaker 4: haven't even mentioned geopolitics. And one of the biggest kickers
Speaker 4: back in early twenty twenty two was when Russia invaded.
Speaker 1: Ukraine, right because of fuel.
Speaker 4: Right, and so fuel costs went up dramatically, and so
Speaker 4: it also disrupted supply chains. So when you think about this,
Speaker 4: one of the reasons why a lot of folks that
Speaker 4: look at markets and look at the economy are really
Speaker 4: concerned about the situation with China and Taiwan is that
Speaker 4: another disruption to supply chains like we saw in COVID.
Speaker 4: The national security risks of all of this centralized manufacturing
Speaker 4: and supply chains dependent on China has the potential to
Speaker 4: cause massive inflationary pressures, especially as we reshore jobs, whether
Speaker 4: it be in semiconductors or other parts of manufacturing. And
Speaker 4: the last point I'll just say, and this is bipartisan
Speaker 4: because the Trump administration started this back in early in
Speaker 4: their administration, the tariffs and the trade war. You know,
Speaker 4: the Biden administration has leaned into this. We're seeing lots
Speaker 4: of teriffs being placed on that's also inflationary, So let's talk.
Speaker 1: About the tariffs. This is one of the few times
Speaker 1: ever that the Trump administration may have done something right,
Speaker 1: which is baffling to me because of the more they
Speaker 1: had running that hip and the advice they were taking
Speaker 1: from people like Larry Goudlow, who is a lovely person
Speaker 1: but is wrong about almost everything. So explain to us
Speaker 1: why Trump World was right about tariffs when it comes
Speaker 1: to China, and also just explain to me why inflationary
Speaker 1: tariffs are somehow good now.
Speaker 3: They're really not. I mean.
Speaker 4: So the point is, I think a lot of it
Speaker 4: has to do with diversification away from those supply chains
Speaker 4: in China, and also the idea and we've been dealing
Speaker 4: with this in the US as it relates to manufacturing
Speaker 4: for fifty years. You know, Japan was the bugaboo back
Speaker 4: in the eighties that they were going to dump cars
Speaker 4: on us and destroy Detroit, and to some degree they
Speaker 4: really did. Right now, as you think about the bideninistration
Speaker 4: and what they're doing, I mean, they want to be
Speaker 4: very pro Detroit auto manufacturing. And we saw that earlier
Speaker 4: in the year with the UAW strikes when Biden went
Speaker 4: and got on the picket line. Right now, that serves
Speaker 4: him politically very well, right to have a very strong
Speaker 4: message message in Michigan. It's one of the only battle
Speaker 4: ground states that he's doing pretty decently. And so the
Speaker 4: idea that the Chinese, which have gotten really good at
Speaker 4: developing low cost electric vehicles, that they could be selling
Speaker 4: them here in the US. It would absolutely sink Tesla,
Speaker 4: which is the leader right now in high end electric vehicles.
Speaker 4: Elon Musk has wind about it on many occasions that
Speaker 4: the Chinese have the potential just to destroy USV manufacturing.
Speaker 3: So he's right about that.
Speaker 4: But really, if you think about the number of cars
Speaker 4: that are coming out of Detroit that are fully electric,
Speaker 4: I think it was basically one percent of the fifteen
Speaker 4: million cars that were made and shipped in America last year,
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty thousand I think between Ford and GM.
Speaker 3: So this is a very nascent industry here in the US.
Speaker 4: I think a lot of folks who are really focused
Speaker 4: on this from a environmental standpoint would like to see,
Speaker 4: let's say, the Chinese innovation help basically spur competition here
Speaker 4: in the US, which will give many, many more consumers
Speaker 4: access to these vehicles. And if these ariffs at one
Speaker 4: hundred percent coming in from China are basically going to
Speaker 4: block US consumers from buying cheap Chinese EV's, but I
Speaker 4: just don't think there's demand for cheap Chinese.
Speaker 3: Evs anyway here.
Speaker 4: But again that's the risk, and they're also putting them
Speaker 4: on steel and a whole host of other things. And
Speaker 4: again going back to the Trump administration, you know that
Speaker 4: wasn't that popular if you think about it back at
Speaker 4: the time on certain forms of manufacturing companies because they
Speaker 4: rely on that cheap steel and they lost a lot
Speaker 4: of jobs in the heartland because of those high terraffs.
Speaker 1: Right. So, do you think ultimately the Trump world was
Speaker 1: wrong and Biden world is wrong?
Speaker 3: No, I think they were probably right.
Speaker 4: If you think about this sort of deal that the
Speaker 4: US manufacturing had made that benefited US consumers some fifty
Speaker 4: years ago. You know, we got addicted to cheap manufactured
Speaker 4: goods in China, but at the hollowing out of our
Speaker 4: manufacturing capabilities has done a number on our economy if
Speaker 4: you think about it, right, And so I think they
Speaker 4: were probably right in some manners. I think the Biden
Speaker 4: administration basically left all those tariffs in place, and now
Speaker 4: we're getting a bit more aggressive. You know, again, a
Speaker 4: lot of it is messaging, right, and how you want
Speaker 4: to play in this global you know playing field. I mean,
Speaker 4: the Trump administration they basically went after very hard, you know,
Speaker 4: China and some other parts of the world, and that
Speaker 4: was you know, basically one of their big economic messages,
Speaker 4: and for many reasons it's right. But the other thing
Speaker 4: I'll just say is that, you know, if you think
Speaker 4: about twenty and sixteen to twenty and twenty four, what
Speaker 4: is starting to become very apparent is China is much
Speaker 4: weaker than we would have given them any credit for.
Speaker 3: You know, than a few years ago.
Speaker 4: They have a massive demographic problem, they have huge economic
Speaker 4: problems that have not really made it to our shores
Speaker 4: just yet, and so maybe they're not the sort of
Speaker 4: you know adversary economically that we think they are. And therefore,
Speaker 4: you know, the idea of kind of pressing their neck
Speaker 4: right now may cause them to do something that we
Speaker 4: don't want them to do on the geopolitical front, and
Speaker 4: that is some sort of you know, embargo on Taiwan
Speaker 4: or as trying to take Taiwan, because that would be
Speaker 4: something that I think would be disasterus if you thought
Speaker 4: the Ukraine invasion was bad for all the things we
Speaker 4: just talked about, you know, cutting off access to chips
Speaker 4: and by the way, Taiwan makes probably eighty five percent
Speaker 4: of high end chips right now, they're distributed all over
Speaker 4: the world.
Speaker 3: That would be a very bad thing for the global economy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, these are all really really salient and important points.
Speaker 1: And China is both not as strong as we worry
Speaker 1: they are, but also way more dangerous than Russia ultimately
Speaker 1: because they have money and they have real stuff. I
Speaker 1: want you just for a second to talk about there
Speaker 1: are people on the left. They're like the politicians that
Speaker 1: my husband hates, but I like them ideologically, But he
Speaker 1: hates them because he's a venture capitalist and he's the best,
Speaker 1: but I think he's wrong on this. But they want
Speaker 1: to push to lower gross prices. I'm talking about Elizabeth Warren,
Speaker 1: I'm talking about Bernie Sanders. This is like capitalist creates
Speaker 1: a lot of capitalist anxiety. I mean, is there a
Speaker 1: place for.
Speaker 3: That or now? Not really?
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, when you think about it, past
Speaker 4: administrations they've looked for different ways to kind of you know,
Speaker 4: like through the social safety net to kind of, you know,
Speaker 4: help reduce the cost of some of these things. But
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, you know, we really
Speaker 4: don't have mechanisms in our capitalistic kind of.
Speaker 3: Way of life to do that, right.
Speaker 4: And so again this comes down to the sort of
Speaker 4: choices that you make and the parties that you align with,
Speaker 4: and you know, the Democratic Party, whether it be the
Speaker 4: far left coming up with these sorts of plans, it's
Speaker 4: kind of helping move the center to the left, I
Speaker 4: think a little bit if that makes some sense on
Speaker 4: some of these issues that I know you and I
Speaker 4: and your husband care deeply about. But the way in
Speaker 4: which people want to institute these policies are very different. Right,
Speaker 4: So when I think about this, one of the major
Speaker 4: differences that I always consider when I think about some
Speaker 4: of let's say, the economic policies on the right that
Speaker 4: make some sense to me more so than say coming
Speaker 4: out of Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. I mean, what I
Speaker 4: care about is that our tax dollars go to the
Speaker 4: most vulnerable in some ways, to some of the most
Speaker 4: vulnerable citizens in our country. And I think on the
Speaker 4: right they think of them as handouts, right, And so
Speaker 4: to me, that's where just I just like draw the
Speaker 4: line to some degree. So again, I don't agree with
Speaker 4: Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, but I do believe that the
Speaker 4: Democratic Party, and I think the things that they stand
Speaker 4: for as it relates to the social safety that are
Speaker 4: worth fighting for.
Speaker 3: And that's where I stand.
Speaker 1: Thank you, Dan, You're the best, all.
Speaker 3: Right, Olli, John Fast, It's always a plusure.
Speaker 1: Jacob Rubashkan is an analyst and reporter for Inside Elections.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Jacob Rubashkan.
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about what the landscape looks like in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5: Yeah, leak for Democrats on the Senate side at least.
Speaker 1: First, let's talk about the Senate map. Primaries went basically
Speaker 1: as good as they could for Democrats, right, Yeah.
Speaker 5: I think in the places where Democrats needed wins, they
Speaker 5: got them. They got the candidates they preferred and some
Speaker 5: of the tougher races, and obviously Democrats one thing that
Speaker 5: they have going for them is that they don't have
Speaker 5: very many primaries themselves, right. I Mean, it's almost entirely
Speaker 5: incumbents or people without primaries. Maryland was really kind of
Speaker 5: the big competitive race that also had a competitive primary,
Speaker 5: was a standout in that regard.
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. I feel like black women
Speaker 1: candidates have kind of gotten screwed, especially when it comes
Speaker 1: to Senate. We've only had three black women senators, which
Speaker 1: is insanity. But it looks like that's possibly about to.
Speaker 5: Change, right, Yeah, No, I think that it will most
Speaker 5: likely change. There are two black women who are poised
Speaker 5: to win their Senate races this cycle. I mean, Lisa
Speaker 5: Blunt Rochester in Delaware is basically a shoe in. She
Speaker 5: doesn't face any real opposition in her primary or in
Speaker 5: the general election, so she's going to be there next year.
Speaker 5: And Angela also Brooks in Maryland. I think we still
Speaker 5: consider her the favorite to win the Maryland Senate race,
Speaker 5: even against Larry Hogan. It'll be a tough contest, but
Speaker 5: we see her favorite, and she would be of course,
Speaker 5: the other black women in the Senate, they would go
Speaker 5: from zero to two, and two is more than they've
Speaker 5: ever had at the same time in the Senate in history.
Speaker 1: We have a black woman senator from California right now,
Speaker 1: but she's about to be replaced by a white man. Yes,
Speaker 1: let's just game this out. There's a slate of really
Speaker 1: bad polls that show a lot of stuff. But if
Speaker 1: we were just to go on twenty twenty two, or
Speaker 1: even twenty twenty three, or even twenty twenty all of
Speaker 1: the elections where Democrats have overperformed, and you were to
Speaker 1: be a little optimistic, what Senate seats. Do you think
Speaker 1: Democrats can either keep or pick up.
Speaker 5: Look, I think that in the best case scenario for Democrats,
Speaker 5: they hold everything except West Virginia. I mean, West Virginia
Speaker 5: is off the board. I don't even talk about it
Speaker 5: anymore because it's so out of mind. Without Joe Manchin,
Speaker 5: that seat is gone and that up ends the whole math.
Speaker 5: But we'll leave that aside for a second. I think
Speaker 5: there are paths to victory for both John Tester and
Speaker 5: Montana and Sheared Brown in Ohio. Those are the two
Speaker 5: most vulnerable seats, but it's not West Virginia territory. They're
Speaker 5: not being triaged, they're not dead men walking.
Speaker 1: And they are also amazing candidates that are pretty different.
Speaker 1: You know, those candidates are amazing candidates.
Speaker 5: And this is something that Democrats have going for them,
Speaker 5: is though they brought back almost all of their incumbents,
Speaker 5: and that really makes a difference. A lot of the
Speaker 5: time when we see big swings in Senate composition, it
Speaker 5: is because incumbents decide not to run for reelection. I mean,
Speaker 5: think about twenty fourteen, which I think is still kind
Speaker 5: of If you're trying to understand why Democrats have been
Speaker 5: such a deep hole in the Senate for so long.
Speaker 5: Twenty fourteen is the year that you have to look to.
Speaker 5: Republicans flipped nine seats that year. It was a blood
Speaker 5: bat and it was in part because they had they
Speaker 5: want a bunch of really narrow victories in states against
Speaker 5: incumbents like North Carolina and Alaska, but also because Parkin
Speaker 5: retired in Iowa, and you had other Democratic senators in
Speaker 5: Republican states who didn't even bother trying to win reelection.
Speaker 5: They just hung up the cleats and went home. And
Speaker 5: I think what is keeping Democratic hopes alive is that
Speaker 5: neither John Tester nor Shared Brown made that calculation. This time,
Speaker 5: they're giving the party a fighting chance in both of
Speaker 5: those states.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about here's one that because I'm still very
Speaker 1: salty from twenty twenty two and the fucking Wisconsin Senate
Speaker 1: where Ron Annon was polling nine points ahead and won
Speaker 1: against Mandela Barns by one point. If you were looking
Speaker 1: at this map, what would be that seed?
Speaker 5: So this one we actually see in a better position
Speaker 5: for Democrats than most of their other vulnerable seats.
Speaker 1: What are we we're talking about Tavy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: she's gonna win. That guy's an asshole, sorry, Eric Coovey,
Speaker 1: and who comes from California owns a bank.
Speaker 5: The matchup there, I think generally plays well to Senator
Speaker 5: Baldwin's strength. Huv D Eric hove.
Speaker 1: D with a ridiculous little mustache.
Speaker 5: He ran for senate in twenty twelve Sands mustache didn't
Speaker 5: even win the primary, so the mustache at least has
Speaker 5: helped him clear the primary field this time, right or Ormon.
Speaker 5: What he has going for him is he is really
Speaker 5: really rich, and he unlike some really rich guys who
Speaker 5: run for office and don't spend any money or spend
Speaker 5: a little bit of money, he really is is opening
Speaker 5: up his checkbook and has already been able to go
Speaker 5: up on TV and prosecute a message against Senator Baldwin.
Speaker 5: But you know, he's got the baggage too, He's got
Speaker 5: the California stuff. He has a pension for speaking his
Speaker 5: mind in somewhat blunt ways that doesn't sit well with voters.
Speaker 5: I mean, he made those comments about how people in
Speaker 5: nursing homes might not you know, have the faculties to
Speaker 5: be able to vote.
Speaker 1: Insulting old people is always a good way when you're
Speaker 1: running for office, always a good moment.
Speaker 5: And you know, in Wisconsin, he made a comment if
Speaker 5: I had to start all over, I would say we
Speaker 5: shouldn't have legal alcohol sales. He presents some opportunities to
Speaker 5: Democrats to paint him as kind of an out of
Speaker 5: touch rich guy who's not in it or the people
Speaker 5: of Wisconsin. And that's why, you know, I think that
Speaker 5: we see Senator Baldwin in a stronger position than either
Speaker 5: Shared Brown or John Tester, but also Jackie Rosen in
Speaker 5: Nevada and Bob Casey and Pennsylvania and some of these
Speaker 5: other candidates as well. You know, Wisconsin I think is
Speaker 5: in a better spot for Democrats than a lot of
Speaker 5: these other highly competitive Senate races.
Speaker 1: Talk to me about the Senate race that's not on
Speaker 1: the map but maybe should be.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think both parties have arguments to make
Speaker 5: for one or two states that we don't currently see
Speaker 5: as super competitive. On the Democratic side, I think Florida
Speaker 5: is the obvious candidate here at the moment, we have
Speaker 5: Florida rated solid Republican because it's just not clear that
Speaker 5: the likely nominee there. Former Congresswoman w macarstole Powell is
Speaker 5: going to be able to stand up the kind of
Speaker 5: operation needed to run in the third largest state in
Speaker 5: the Union. I mean, Florida is incredibly expensive and she
Speaker 5: is not such an incredible fundraiser compared to some of
Speaker 5: these other Democrats.
Speaker 1: And he's got a gazillion dollars.
Speaker 5: And he's got a gazillion dollars and he will spend it.
Speaker 5: I mean, he spent sixty million on his run in
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen. Money is no problem for him. And because
Speaker 5: the Biden campaign probably isn't going to invest heavily in Florida,
Speaker 5: she's going to have to do it on her own.
Speaker 5: And we just at the moment, it doesn't seem like
Speaker 5: that is going to happen. It's not going to all
Speaker 5: come together for her. And you know, the Florida Democratic
Speaker 5: Party has really been struggled in recent years to build
Speaker 5: up any kind of infrastructure at a state level, and
Speaker 5: so it's difficult. But if things really get better for Biden,
Speaker 5: if all of a sudden he's competitive in Florida and
Speaker 5: she's able to really kick her fundraising into high gear,
Speaker 5: then yeah, Rick Scott has never won a race by
Speaker 5: more than one percentage point in the decade he's been
Speaker 5: in politics. On paper, this is a seat that could
Speaker 5: come online for Democrats on the Republican side. The one
Speaker 5: or two that I think they would probably want to
Speaker 5: make a run at, or New Mexico or Virginia. I'd
Speaker 5: probably place New Mexico above that, just because you know,
Speaker 5: this is a state that used to be.
Speaker 1: Because of the Hispanic poll and vote at the polls.
Speaker 5: So New Mexico has the highest Hispanic population I believe
Speaker 5: of any state in the country. Republicans have a recruit
Speaker 5: in that state that they like, Nela Dimnici. She's the
Speaker 5: daughter of former Senator Pete Domenici, so she's got some
Speaker 5: built in name id. She is wealthy, and so she
Speaker 5: has some self funding capacity. And Martin Heinrich, the incumbent Democrat,
Speaker 5: is not a particularly flashy member. He's not on TV
Speaker 5: all the time. He's not kind of a high profile
Speaker 5: member of the caucus, which can cut both ways. But
Speaker 5: I think it might give Republicans an opportunity to define
Speaker 5: him a little bit in voters' minds. But New Mexico
Speaker 5: is not going to be a competitive presidential state unless
Speaker 5: the bottom falls out for Biden, right, So like you
Speaker 5: kind of have these extremes on either side. Depending on
Speaker 5: where the presidential race goes, we could see one or
Speaker 5: the other be competitive.
Speaker 1: Yeah, seems unlikely. So talk to me about the House.
Speaker 5: So the House is definitely a more positive territory for
Speaker 5: Democrats than the Senate is. I mean, the Senate is
Speaker 5: truly almost entirely defense. That's not a comfortable position to
Speaker 5: be the House. Of course, they're in the minority right now,
Speaker 5: so by definition they have more room to grow, and
Speaker 5: they have room to grow in Democratic leaning territory. There
Speaker 5: are a handful of seats in California and New York
Speaker 5: that Biden would have carried by double digits last cycle
Speaker 5: that Democrats absolutely have to win back if they want
Speaker 5: to flip control of the House. I mean, that is
Speaker 5: the main path to the majority, and then kind of
Speaker 5: everything else. The other seats out there, and there are
Speaker 5: probably another fifteen seats that are conceivably targetable on Democratic
Speaker 5: side and on Republican side. That'll determine how big the
Speaker 5: majority is for either party. But it's going to come
Speaker 5: down to those seats in the middle. If Democrats want
Speaker 5: to retake control redistricting, there were a couple of states
Speaker 5: that redrew their maps. Ultimately, it looks like pretty much
Speaker 5: a wash. Republicans are going to pick up a couple
Speaker 5: seats out of North Carolina, but Democrats are going to
Speaker 5: pick up a seat in Alabama and a seat in Louisiana.
Speaker 5: So you know, call it R plus one. But you
Speaker 5: know that's the kind of number that comes out in
Speaker 5: the wash. It's not really a major upending of the
Speaker 5: congressional map from last year to this year at least.
Speaker 1: So what seats are you in the House? What do
Speaker 1: you think has promised for Democrats? Where do you think
Speaker 1: they can flow?
Speaker 5: So, look, there are two seats on Long Island that
Speaker 5: Democrats are interested in, the first district in the fourth district.
Speaker 5: I think the fourth district is that one of the
Speaker 5: number one pick up opportunities. Maybe number one would have
Speaker 5: voted for Biden.
Speaker 1: Who is that?
Speaker 5: That's Congressman Anthony des Posito.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, that's the one that John Avlon is
Speaker 1: running for.
Speaker 5: Right, No, So he's running in the first district, which
Speaker 5: is Nick Loloda.
Speaker 1: Who's ds Posito running in.
Speaker 5: So d s Posito is running against Laura Gillen, who
Speaker 5: is the former Hempstead Town Supervisor. She ran against him
Speaker 5: last cycle two and lost by like two points or
Speaker 5: something like that, and she's back for the rematch. And
Speaker 5: so that you know, that district voted for Biden by
Speaker 5: a greater margin than any other seat currently held by
Speaker 5: a Republican. So that's certainly top of the list. And
Speaker 5: then you kind of go up through the Hudson Valley
Speaker 5: New York seventeen with Mike Lawler running against Mandair Jones.
Speaker 5: That's going to be a big race. And then the
Speaker 5: twenty second district, I think is actually probably a Democrat's
Speaker 5: best shot anywhere of flipping a seat.
Speaker 2: What is that?
Speaker 5: So that's Brandon Williams is the Republican. He's a freshman.
Speaker 5: It's kind of a Syracuse based on Indaga County district.
Speaker 5: There's a Democratic primary there currently going on for the
Speaker 5: next couple of weeks. They've got to sort that out.
Speaker 5: But then Williams is very vulnerable. He is more conservative
Speaker 5: than the district typically goes for, so we actually see
Speaker 5: him as like the most vulnerable Republican in the country
Speaker 5: right now.
Speaker 1: Oh wow, And then what about on this now it's
Speaker 1: in California.
Speaker 5: Yeah, so there are a couple of seats in kind
Speaker 5: of the La Orange County area that are going to
Speaker 5: be very crucial. So Mike Garcia in California's twenty seventh district.
Speaker 5: This is kind of Antelope Valley. It's on the other
Speaker 5: side of LA from the Palm Springs District. There is
Speaker 5: a Palm Springs district as well that's going to be competitive.
Speaker 5: Will Rollins is the Democrat there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've had him on a number of times.
Speaker 5: Yeah, running against Ken Calvert, So that's going to be
Speaker 5: a tough race. Rollins isn't very strong fundraiser. I think
Speaker 5: he's probably one of the best fundraisers that Democrats have
Speaker 5: on the challenger side this cycle. But you know those
Speaker 5: two races, there's the Michelle Steele seat, which is California's
Speaker 5: forty fifth district, is going to be competitive, and then
Speaker 5: there are two seats in the Central Valley. Adam Gray
Speaker 5: is running against Congressman John Duarti in the thirteenth district,
Speaker 5: and that was a race that both of those guys
Speaker 5: ran last time. Duarte beat him, but I want to say,
Speaker 5: like five hundred votes. It was very narrow.
Speaker 3: It was like this.
Speaker 5: It was the second narrowest after Adam Frisch. It was
Speaker 5: the second narrowest race in the country. And then David
Speaker 5: Valdeo is also in that area, another seat that would
Speaker 5: have voted for Biden by a lot and is represented
Speaker 5: by a Republican, and he's also in a rematch against
Speaker 5: Rudy Sallis, who's a former state assembly man who's back
Speaker 5: for another shot at the seat. So a number of
Speaker 5: rematches in California and other highly competitive races that will
Speaker 5: also determine and whether Democrats can win back these seats.
Speaker 5: I mean, if they're not able to win back seats
Speaker 5: that Biden was carrying by ten plus points.
Speaker 1: Right right, right, that's real weird. So let me ask you,
Speaker 1: is Lauren Bobert safe?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: Talk to us about the sort of crazies like the
Speaker 1: Matt Gates, the Anna Paulina Luna bad Crow, the Arson s.
Speaker 5: Lauren Bobert is an interesting one because she made that
Speaker 5: district jump. Right, if she had remained in her current district,
Speaker 5: she'd be very vulnerable. I think she knew that. That's
Speaker 5: why she drove across the state. Right we were talking
Speaker 5: hundreds of miles from the third district to the fourth
Speaker 5: district to try and run in a very crowded Republican
Speaker 5: primary in a safe seat. Now she's got to win
Speaker 5: her primary, which is going to be tough. When is
Speaker 5: the primary it's coming up? I want to say June
Speaker 5: twenty fifth is the Colorado primary, and you know, if
Speaker 5: she can win her primary, then she'll be set, you know,
Speaker 5: for however long she wants, until you know, if they
Speaker 5: redraw the district in a decade or whatever. But that's
Speaker 5: a very solid Republican district. Matt Gates similar story. I mean,
Speaker 5: that's the Florida Panhandle is among the most Republican places
Speaker 5: in the country at this point. Marjorie Taylor Green Northeast
Speaker 5: Northwest Georgia is you know, that's Republican country. And a
Speaker 5: Paulina Luna is an interesting one because that district on
Speaker 5: paper is a little swing yer kind of that Saint
Speaker 5: Petersburg Tampa Bay area. Charlie crist held that seat for
Speaker 5: a while. There is a crowded Democratic primary there, which
Speaker 5: I'm kind of surprised by because it's not a top
Speaker 5: tier opportunity, but you've got four or five Democrats running
Speaker 5: credible campaigns trying to get the nomination there. I think
Speaker 5: that if we see some sort of snap back for
Speaker 5: Democrats in Florida. That's the one seat that could be
Speaker 5: competitive in the entire state. You know, pretty incredible. Almost
Speaker 5: thirty congressional districts in this state, and at most one
Speaker 5: or two of them would conceivably flip. They did a
Speaker 5: very good job of gerrymandering that state when they redraw
Speaker 5: the maps last cycle. But she's a kind of that
Speaker 5: caucus that Austin Kevin McCarthy and has been causing so
Speaker 5: much trouble for Republican leadership. She's the one who comes
Speaker 5: from the swingiest district by far.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so interesting. Thank you so much. Jacob Robashkan, Yeah,
Speaker 1: powis a pleasure. No sick, Jesse Cannon.
Speaker 6: My junk fast. You know, we all know that Trump
Speaker 6: gets compared to a mob boss a lot, but trickling
Speaker 6: down what all the people below him should say really
Speaker 6: puts a fine note on it.
Speaker 1: New York Magazine journalist Andrew Rice said he saw as
Speaker 1: he was sitting in the courtroom, Donald Trump editing what
Speaker 1: he was going to have his surrogate say, getting around
Speaker 1: the gag order, having them malign the judge and his
Speaker 1: daughter during his criminal trial while his former lawyer and fixer,
Speaker 1: Michael Cohen testifies about his hush money payments to an
Speaker 1: adult film star. That, my friends, is our moment of U.
Speaker 3: Right.
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in
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