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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics

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Speaker 1: where we discuss the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds. And the North Carolina Senate has banned

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Speaker 1: wearing masks in public places. We have such a great

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Speaker 1: show for you today. On the tape podcast, Dan Nathan

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Speaker 1: talks to us about the new economic numbers and what

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Speaker 1: we can expect from the US economy in the coming months.

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Speaker 1: Then we'll talk to Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin about the

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Speaker 1: races that will determine what our government looks like in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty five. But first we have the host of

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Speaker 1: the Time of Monsters the Nations ged here. Welcome back

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Speaker 1: to Fast Politics, ged.

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Speaker 2: Here, and good to be back.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about it. It's Supreme Court season aka watching

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Speaker 1: six lunatics remake our federal government in the image of

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Speaker 1: the Koch Brothers.

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Speaker 2: Discuss actually like today, there was a little bit of

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Speaker 2: good news because there was the kind of fear that

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Speaker 2: the courts would follow the attempt of the Fifth Circuit

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Speaker 2: to basically run their like large price of the government

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Speaker 2: illegal and then return America the glory days of child labor.

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Speaker 1: That's still on the agenda.

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Speaker 2: But they decided today. It was out that day, So

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Speaker 2: what is grateful for whatever small verses by can offer us,

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Speaker 2: that's a more positive sign. What were the other cases?

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Speaker 1: There are more cases coming. I want you to sort

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Speaker 1: of talk us through. You wrote this piece about the

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Speaker 1: anti war movement needing to claim its victories, So talk

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Speaker 1: to us about what that means, because I do think

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Speaker 1: there's been a really interesting shift in American life when

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Speaker 1: it comes to being against foreign wars.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, that's actually absolutely a really good point. But

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Speaker 2: I think on the current stuff, a lot of people

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Speaker 2: are very mad at Biden, and I'm one of them.

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Speaker 2: Support of what ness Hiwu's governments has been doing has

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Speaker 2: been above and beyond is a con for like many months,

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Speaker 2: and he should have acted earlier, but it is all

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Speaker 2: the more striking considering who he is and his history

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Speaker 2: on this issue. He is taking steps that no previous

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Speaker 2: American president has in terms of cutting back on sending

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Speaker 2: weapons now, so leaving this ideal should have happened sooner.

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Speaker 2: It is happening, and I don't think it would have

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Speaker 2: happened if it weren't for you know, the protests that

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Speaker 2: we're seeing not just on campuses, but earlier the end

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Speaker 2: committed move in. So I think Biden realizes this coalition

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Speaker 2: isn't behind him on this. And the polling is quite striking.

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Speaker 2: I mean, this majority close to the Israeli war in Gaza,

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Speaker 2: but it's a super majority among Democrats. People voted for

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Speaker 2: Biden in twenty twenty. You're looking at like, you know,

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Speaker 2: depending on the poll, seventy seventy five percent of post

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Speaker 2: the anti war movement deserves credit and they should push on.

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Speaker 2: I think that what he want to hear is among

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Speaker 2: some people is almost self sabotage of like oh, you know,

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Speaker 2: like it's so tiny, he doesn't really read it. He's

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Speaker 2: going to reverse it. And the attitude, well it's too little,

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Speaker 2: too late, as he like an an ongoing political moment.

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Speaker 2: Like I think that's the wrong attitude. I think you

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Speaker 2: have to say, like, okay, this guy is starting to

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Speaker 2: listen to us, something that Donald Trump would never do.

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Speaker 2: By the way, and of course we got to push

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Speaker 2: him more. We've got to push him far there. We're

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Speaker 2: not gonna like relent on pushing him, but he has

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Speaker 2: moving forward, and we have to like, you know, create

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Speaker 2: an incentive structure so that Biden knows that you know,

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Speaker 2: if he wants to get the approval. He's getting some approval.

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Speaker 2: Now you'll get even more if he goes further. My

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Speaker 2: piece of really criticizing the sort of self sabotage of

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Speaker 2: people within the movement that are like trying to deny

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Speaker 2: the significance of what we're seeing, because I actually do

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Speaker 2: think it's it's pretty significant where Biden is going, and

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Speaker 2: I think we're probably gonna see more of that, and

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Speaker 2: I would have I think, you know, beyond Biden, like

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Speaker 2: there's a lot of indication that people in the broader administration,

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Speaker 2: include the State devironment, aren't very happy with what Israel

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Speaker 2: is doing. You know, I think what has to reach

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Speaker 2: out to those people and create conditions where they feel

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Speaker 2: emboldened to speak out it and they feel embolded.

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Speaker 1: That but there was a real aggressive when today on marijuana.

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Speaker 1: Will you talk a.

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Speaker 2: Little bit about that again, This is something actually somebody's

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Speaker 2: very related to, like Israel, in the sense of like,

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Speaker 2: you know, there's something that I might feel like, well,

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Speaker 2: Biden is done is a little bit earlier. There's a

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Speaker 2: little bit people have been pushing him to do for

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Speaker 2: like a long time. I think Biden's history and who

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Speaker 2: he is is maybe pertinent to this. It's maybe not

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Speaker 2: something that comes natural to him for like a bunch

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Speaker 2: of reasons, including I think personal reasons. Having said that,

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Speaker 2: he is someone who can be pushed, he's something someone

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Speaker 2: who can be moved, And to me, like that's the

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Speaker 2: most pertinent political lesson to be learned from this.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so too. And I actually think like

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Speaker 1: we've seen this with other things in Biden world, where

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Speaker 1: he sort of makes this choice to do the more

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Speaker 1: progressive thing, and it's quite cool. I mean with the

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Speaker 1: marijuana staff, that's something that pretty much across the board

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Speaker 1: people really support and could be meaningful in all sorts

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Speaker 1: of ways.

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Speaker 2: Oh no, absolutely no, it's gonna like materially make people's

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Speaker 2: lives better. It is something that has like super majority

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Speaker 2: of support. And I have to ask myself, you know

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Speaker 2: where the popular stat you know, like there's a whole

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Speaker 2: wing of these sort of Savai political consultants and strategists.

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Speaker 2: He were saying, Yo, we have to do the popular thing.

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Speaker 2: This is like doing the popular thing, although they were

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Speaker 2: for some weird reason, they never foregrounded this issue as

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Speaker 2: one of the popular things to do. I will also

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Speaker 2: mention a lot of the student dead reliefs that we've

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Speaker 2: been seeing. The only thing I would maybe say is,

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Speaker 2: you know, I'd like to see the White House get

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Speaker 2: a little bit more on front on some of this stuff,

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Speaker 2: where to maybe call us this more into like a

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Speaker 2: message of like see what we're doing. And for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: like that little bit is not quite coalescing, although that

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Speaker 2: could change, is you know, the election heats up here.

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Speaker 1: We are, we're ten thousand days from this election. We're

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Speaker 1: all gonna die. All anyone talks about is freaking out

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Speaker 1: about out this whole thing. Jesse just said, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy three days. No, Jesse, it's ten thousand days.

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Speaker 1: Give us a little good news.

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Speaker 2: Well, actually, I think like even in some of the

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Speaker 2: bad news people are reporting, I think there is a

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Speaker 2: kind of good news because I noticed that, like all,

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Speaker 2: you know, like there were some polls showing Biden is

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Speaker 2: behind in the swing stage, but those same polls show

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Speaker 2: that the actually Democratic candidates for the Senate in those

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Speaker 2: places are doing well and are overperforming Biden. Now, if

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Speaker 2: you think about it, like are there really people that

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Speaker 2: are going to in vast numbers vote for a Democratic

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Speaker 2: senatorial candidate and.

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Speaker 1: Leave the top of the ticket blank.

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Speaker 2: It seems crazy, Yeah, are going to vote for Biden?

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Speaker 3: I don't really know.

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Speaker 1: We want Trump, yeah exactly.

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Speaker 2: So I actually think that what those polling shows is

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Speaker 2: I think, like the Democratic agenda is popular. You know,

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Speaker 2: that's congruent with what we saw in the mid terms

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Speaker 2: and what we've seen in special elections, and that a

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Speaker 2: lot of the poor polling that Biden's having, it's just

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Speaker 2: people registering their dissatisfaction, Like they're gonna vote for Biden,

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Speaker 2: but they don't want to say so right now because

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Speaker 2: they're mad at him. We're disappointed them for various reasons.

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Speaker 2: So I actually think, if you know, if I don't

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Speaker 2: encourage anyone to be obsessed with the polls at all.

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Speaker 1: Especially one hundred and seventy three days aft.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but if you are like actually like look at

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Speaker 2: the fact that, hey, you know, like the Democratic Party

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Speaker 2: is in good shape, and ask to yourself, if the

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Speaker 2: party is in good shape, what is the likely results

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Speaker 2: for the top figure. The other I think kind of

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Speaker 2: good news is like the debate stuff, which I thought

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Speaker 2: was a really smart move.

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Speaker 1: I hear you're free on Wednesdays.

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Speaker 2: You know, they're going to have fairly early debates. I think,

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Speaker 2: contrary to popular wisdom, Biden does well and then Trump

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Speaker 2: as he does poorly. And I actually think that fairly

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Speaker 2: early on the starkness of the choice between Biden and

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Speaker 2: Trump is going to become a parent and I think

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Speaker 2: that's actually going to start narrowing this thing and solidifying. You. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: I actually think like overall, you know, I don't. I

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Speaker 2: would not say people should be terrified. I think that

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Speaker 2: it's going to be like a tight election. People are

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Speaker 2: gonna have to pull things together.

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Speaker 1: You'd rather be the Dems than the Republicans, I think so. Yes,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump sits in a courthouse right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean that's the other thing. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we've seen the Republicans embrace of Trump, and I think

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Speaker 2: that's come with some political costs. But like the extent

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Speaker 2: that they're embracing him now, not just that Trump's in

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Speaker 2: the courthouse, but like all these party leaders are joining

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Speaker 2: him the courthouse and are joining him to like insult

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Speaker 2: the judge.

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Speaker 1: I think that hurts him. I think it hurts the

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Speaker 1: party if you want to keep the House.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, ways, I don't think we can measure yet,

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Speaker 2: but I think that, you know, the full extent that

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Speaker 2: they've embraced not just Trump, but Trump's criminality, that's going

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Speaker 2: to have a lasting legacy. I mean I think, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, like January sixth had a lasting legacy, and

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Speaker 2: that's why the Dems overperformed in the rich terms. And

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Speaker 2: like this is like, you know, this is kind of

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Speaker 2: a variation on January sixth. It's an open defiance of

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Speaker 2: the rule of law. And I think there's a lot

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Speaker 2: of people, you know, might not agree with the Dems

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Speaker 2: on all political things, but they kind of understand the

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Speaker 2: United States has to be like a nation of laws,

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Speaker 2: and like what Trump is doing now it's like you're

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Speaker 2: staring into the abyss of being like, you know, like

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Speaker 2: let's go to court anarchy, you know.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk about Donald Trump in court. Right now,

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Speaker 1: his former lawyer is being cross examined by his current lawyer,

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Speaker 1: Todd Blande, who is a prosecutor. I mean, this is

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Speaker 1: this weird moment in Trump world where Trump has actually

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Speaker 1: gotten pretty good lawyers and now he's making them be

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Speaker 1: bad lawyers by bossing them around.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do mean this is one reason why usually

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Speaker 2: he has bad lawyers because they're the ones that put

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Speaker 2: up with it. Oh, I mean it's interesting. I've thought

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Speaker 2: about this a little bit, Like it is interesting that

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Speaker 2: the one place you can get good lawyers is in

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Speaker 2: a kind of criminal case. That's maybe because he's more

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Speaker 2: used to like that kind of legal scenario than he

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Speaker 2: is with some of the more issues of constitutional law

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Speaker 2: or election law, that he's deafliped with this kind of

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Speaker 2: case involving you know, sort of mafio. So like kickbacks

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Speaker 2: and favors is Donald Trump's terrain. But having said that, like, yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm not super optimistic about this as a legal case,

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Speaker 2: Like I think it's actually kind of hard to draw

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Speaker 2: these ways in which they can attack the witnesses.

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Speaker 1: It's a little hanky.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. But having said that, I mean, like, you know,

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Speaker 2: if anyone's gonna sabotage a legal case.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be Donald Trump, right, It's true.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, no, I you know, his recording court

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Speaker 2: has left been that great. I mean you have, especially

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Speaker 2: what considers all the court cases that were brought coming

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Speaker 2: out of the twenty twenty election. So yeah, I actually

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Speaker 2: think it's kind of been fascinating to watch and maybe

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Speaker 2: the root of all this is that he's always felt

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Speaker 2: he's been about the law, and unfortunately for most of

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Speaker 2: his life he's been right. Like, how many things has

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Speaker 2: this guy done that are like, you know, borderline criminal

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Speaker 2: or criminal that we're never brought up, we'll never know.

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Speaker 2: It's a lot and this sense of impunity. I can

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Speaker 2: do what I want, I can the judges. That's really

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Speaker 2: a product of a lifetime. But have you said that.

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Speaker 2: I think very ordinary people watching this stuff, you know,

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Speaker 2: like I can't feel that they would be very sepulate

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Speaker 2: to Trump. And I think that, you know, there's like

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Speaker 2: this fundamental attack on the rule of law, not just

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Speaker 2: why what he did criminally, but by the attacks on

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Speaker 2: the judges and the political attacks. I think that's going

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Speaker 2: to resonate.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I think so much about how he

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Speaker 1: thinks he's doing something brilliant here by making this case

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Speaker 1: about law and not about his criminality, and like it's

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Speaker 1: worked for him with the primary voters, who are so

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Speaker 1: predisposed to him that they'll pretty much go along with anything.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not convinced that you can win anyone else

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Speaker 1: who doesn't have total Trump derangement syndrome.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I think that's right. I think that

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Speaker 2: he's decided to make it in a way that people

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Speaker 2: have to choose, like, you know, do they go into

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Speaker 2: the Trump culture or do they like go along with

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Speaker 2: the normal reality that they've lived in their own life.

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Speaker 2: That's helped win the primaries, is not people that were

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Speaker 2: already in the Trump call that if that's the choice,

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Speaker 2: then he wins. But like if you're putting into the

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Speaker 2: broader public, no, I don't think he wins. And in fact,

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Speaker 2: I think it will remind people why they don't like him,

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Speaker 2: which I think is actually very important. I think, like,

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Speaker 2: you know, he's been out of the spot like long

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Speaker 2: enough that some people have forgotten. Maybe it's start the

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Speaker 2: big takeaway of the court cases, Like it's a big

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Speaker 2: reminder of why you do not want this guy that

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Speaker 2: I does. You know, why he's a bad and dangerous fan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but it is interesting to see members of Congress,

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Speaker 1: the Speaker of the United States has representatives people for

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Speaker 1: whom they should know better up there being like this

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Speaker 1: is our guy.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: No, you know what it reminded me of, Like as

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Speaker 2: a New Yorker, you'll remember mister Gotti, well respected businessman,

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Speaker 2: a member of the community and was a very stricting thing.

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Speaker 2: That's like, you know, because he was a bobster with

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Speaker 2: as certain support in the community, there were people who

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Speaker 2: rallied to him. She's like, this is very similar, except that,

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Speaker 2: you know, like it's not just like a small community

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Speaker 2: in New York. It's like the weight of like, you know,

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Speaker 2: one of the two major political parties on one level. Like,

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Speaker 2: to me, this is the threat, right, the threat of

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Speaker 2: a trump pized Republican party that shares his contempt for law.

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Speaker 2: And that's a scary thing. But I think that's also

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Speaker 2: something Joe Biden can run on. Everything is already in

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Speaker 2: very stark relief, and one of the things Democrats have

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Speaker 2: to do is to just make sure everyone in America

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Speaker 2: knows this is the choice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I agree, a really good point.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Eric Adams for two minutes. Sure, he's

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Speaker 1: our mayor in New York whatever. He was recently in

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Speaker 1: Rome with the Pope. Can you just make it make sense?

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Speaker 2: Well, I guess Eric Addam likes to see himself as

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Speaker 2: an international figure. I mean it is a kind of

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Speaker 2: perhaps charming thing. I actually remember, like he's running for Rayre.

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Speaker 2: He said that he had wanted to be buried in Israel,

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Speaker 2: and people asked where, and he said the goal at Heights,

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Speaker 2: which is actually disputed territory, or is actually Syrian territory.

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Speaker 2: So I guess New York has a very international mayor.

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Speaker 2: But perhaps the other thing is, like, you know what,

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Speaker 2: you're as widely hated as Eric Adams is, having so

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Speaker 2: much trouble domestically, maybe you go abroad. That's what sort

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Speaker 2: of presidents who are trouble often do. It happens that

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Speaker 2: I guess if you're aware of New York, you can

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Speaker 2: do the same thing exactly.

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Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, Thank you jet here, thank you Spring is here.

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Speaker 1: And I bet you are trying to look fashionable, So

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Speaker 1: why not pick up some fashionable all new Fast Politics merchandise.

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Speaker 1: We just opened a news store with all new designs

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Speaker 1: just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats, and top bags.

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Speaker 1: To grab some, head to Fastpolitics dot com. Dan Nathan

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Speaker 1: is the host of the On the Tape podcast and

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Speaker 1: a c NBC Fast Money contributor.

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Speaker 3: Dan Nathan my John Cast.

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Speaker 1: Welcome. I am so happy to have you here. You

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Speaker 1: know you're like one of my people.

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Speaker 4: Well you know you're one of my must listens to

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Speaker 4: three times a week on Fast Politics. So it is

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Speaker 4: my sincere pleasure to be on with you this week.

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Speaker 1: So let us talk about all of the economic news yesterday,

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Speaker 1: because there was a lot on Wednesday. We had like

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Speaker 1: a number of numbers. So explain to us what all

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Speaker 1: those numbers were, sort of break it down for us.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's do it, okay, So listen.

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Speaker 4: You know, I'm mostly focused on the markets, and a

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Speaker 4: lot of this economic data that comes out almost every

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Speaker 4: day is important to how investors perceive the health of

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Speaker 4: the economy, and thus they expressed those views in the markets,

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Speaker 4: whether it be the stock market, whether they be the

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Speaker 4: bond market, commodities and a like. So yesterday was the

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Speaker 4: April CPI reading, that's the main reading for inflation. It

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Speaker 4: came in slightly below expectations, but it's still up three

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Speaker 4: point four percent year over year, right, And you could say, well,

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Speaker 4: that's good, because I remember a year and a half

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Speaker 4: ago those inflation readings were coming in north of nine

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Speaker 4: percent or so.

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Speaker 3: But here's the problem. Disinflation.

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Speaker 4: While it's great for you know, most consumers, it's still

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Speaker 4: really bad for a lot of consumers. So at three

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Speaker 4: point four percent. That is up year over year, right,

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Speaker 4: so if you're spending on a whole host of things,

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Speaker 4: it's still up. It's down from the highs, you know,

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Speaker 4: almost two years ago, but it's still up. There was

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Speaker 4: also some data out there on retail sales which were

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Speaker 4: weaker than expected. So the longer that you have periods

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Speaker 4: of high inflation, right sooner or later, it's going to

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Speaker 4: weigh on consumer confidence and retail sales. And that's what

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Speaker 4: we're seeing here a little bit. And we also have

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Speaker 4: the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was out earlier in the

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Speaker 4: week basically saying that interest rates are going to remain

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Speaker 4: higher for probably a little longer than they had expected

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Speaker 4: because they're still trying to battle high levels of inflation

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Speaker 4: with high interest rates, which is also weighing on a

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Speaker 4: certain set of consumers that use basically credit to finance

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Speaker 4: a whole host of different purchases.

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Speaker 1: And also people want to buy houses. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: fundamental problem here, I feel like is we're in a

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Speaker 1: kind of mobi a strip which is high inflation makes

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Speaker 1: interest rates higher. High interest rates makes it impossible to

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Speaker 1: buy a house. Air go, you have housing being more expensive.

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Speaker 1: The only way to get that number down is probably

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Speaker 1: to cut interest rates.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, and if they start to cut interest rates

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Speaker 4: too early, you run the risk of basically inflation heating

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Speaker 4: back up again. So it is a bit of a

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Speaker 4: conundrum that the Federal Reserve has right now. There are

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Speaker 4: massive political implications for this. You know, a lot of

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Speaker 4: folks think that if the Fed could just kind of

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Speaker 4: wave their wand in lower interest rates, that that's going

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Speaker 4: to help a certain sort of consumer here. But the

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Speaker 4: truth is it might cause oil to go back higher, right,

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Speaker 4: it might cause you know, some of these rents to

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Speaker 4: go back. I mean, there's a whole host of things here.

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Speaker 4: So that whole conundrum about being able to buy a

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Speaker 4: house because mortgage rates are so high, or a car,

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Speaker 4: you run the risk of okay, rent being higher than

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Speaker 4: you know, the cost of rent is greater right now,

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Speaker 4: for the.

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Speaker 3: First time in a very long time, than the cost

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Speaker 3: of buying.

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Speaker 4: A house, right So there's a whole host of things

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Speaker 4: that kind of play into this, and none of them

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Speaker 4: are playing particularly well for the Biden administration right now.

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Speaker 4: So that's one of the reasons why you don't hear

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Speaker 4: them talk a whole heck of a lot about their

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Speaker 4: kind of you know, inclination for lower interest rates. We

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Speaker 4: know that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren came out, i

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Speaker 4: want to say, a couple months ago with an open

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Speaker 4: letter to fed share Pal suggesting that they better lower

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Speaker 4: rates soon. I don't think those two know what they're

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Speaker 4: talking about at the moment right now, because the worst

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Speaker 4: thing that could happen for the Biden administration into the

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Speaker 4: November election is that you know, you see inflation picked

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Speaker 4: back up, and that really going to hurt a voting

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Speaker 4: block in Middle America or in certain social economic you

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Speaker 4: know what I mean sort of demos that they really

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Speaker 4: need to win the reelection here and again, So there's

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Speaker 4: no easy answer right now.

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Speaker 1: The thing about the interest rates problem is, and I

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Speaker 1: think this is really what Chairman Powell is worried about,

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Speaker 1: is that if you cut interest rates too soon, you

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Speaker 1: really could end up just kicking inflation back. I mean,

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Speaker 1: even though people hate inflation and they're not happy with

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Speaker 1: it relatively speaking, and again, this doesn't make people who

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Speaker 1: can't buy a house feel better. It's been bad, but

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Speaker 1: it hasn't crashed us into a recession, which a lot

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Speaker 1: of people were worried it would.

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Speaker 3: No doubt about it.

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Speaker 4: But in certain swaths of the American public, they feel

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Speaker 4: like they're deeply in a recession. And all you have

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Speaker 4: to do is go back and look at some of

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Speaker 4: the comments that you heard from McDonald's, from Starbucks, from Disney.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the list goes on and on these consumer

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Speaker 4: oriented companies, and you could say, well, Disney is consumer discretionary.

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Speaker 4: If you're spending seven dollars for a latte on a

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Speaker 4: daily basis, you could trade down to the food truck

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Speaker 4: on the.

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Speaker 3: Corner at a dollar.

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Speaker 4: But when McDonald's talks about their consumers trading down from

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Speaker 4: five or six dollars, value meals where are they trading

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Speaker 4: down to, right, And so that is the consumer that

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Speaker 4: you're really worried about. So you know, lowering interest rates

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Speaker 4: right now probably doesn't do a whole heck of a

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Speaker 4: lot because you have to look at the rate that

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Speaker 4: basically Fed funds or the ten year rate where lots

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Speaker 4: of other instruments are priced off of, relative to inflation. Right,

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Speaker 4: So if the Fed funds rate it's at five and

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Speaker 4: a half percent and inflation still running at three point

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Speaker 4: four percent, the rate of two point one or whatever

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Speaker 4: is not that restrictive right now, So you think they

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Speaker 4: should I think they have to stay pat They are

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Speaker 4: worried about inflation becoming entrenched in the economy, and every

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Speaker 4: day is whether it's wages, whether it's you know, a

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Speaker 4: whole host of other input costs, you know, whether it

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Speaker 4: be shipping, whether it be energy, oil in the like here.

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Speaker 4: If it becomes entrenched in the economy the way it

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Speaker 4: did in the seventies, and you have lower than trend growth,

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Speaker 4: then you have something called stagflation, which you.

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Speaker 3: And I have not heard a whole heckle a lot

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Speaker 3: about stagflation.

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Speaker 1: Is the nightmare. Talk to us about stagflation.

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Speaker 4: Right, And really, what that would mean is that these

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Speaker 4: higher prices become entrench in the economy. Companies have to

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Speaker 4: try to pass through those higher costs to consumers. Consumers

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Speaker 4: pull back in their spending, causing less than expected growth.

436
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 4: But then ultimately the consumer hits a wall. Corporations hit

437
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,400
Speaker 4: a wall. They can't pass through prices anymore to their customers.

438
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 4: They start laying people off. And just remember we have

439
00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 4: unemployment rate below four percent, that's still at a fifty

440
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 4: or fifty five year low, right, So then all of

441
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 4: a sudden you have unemployment start to tick up, right,

442
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 4: and so all of this is really a very negative

443
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 4: sort of cycle that can happen in the economy.

444
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 3: Those are the sort of worst scenarios, and.

445
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,280
Speaker 1: That's what killed Carter.

446
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:53,960
Speaker 3: Correct.

447
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 1: Stagflation is what killed Jimmy Carter, among other things, and

448
00:21:57,600 --> 00:22:00,359
Speaker 1: it is the nightmare scenario that was very hard to

449
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: get out of. And it seems very likely that we

450
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: will not hit into stagflation at this point.

451
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,959
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, who knows, you know, at this point.

452
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 4: And again, a lot of this might be messaging. If

453
00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:11,840
Speaker 4: you look at the way that Biden is polling on

454
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 4: the economy relative to a potential Trump administration, you know,

455
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,040
Speaker 4: he's not doing particularly well despite the fact that they've

456
00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 4: had a number of really you know, great legislative wins

457
00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 4: as it relates to the economy.

458
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 3: Think about the Chip sack and the like.

459
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I want you to pause back and talk

460
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,520
Speaker 1: about stagflation for a minute. You know, Yes, the Biden

461
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,920
Speaker 1: administration is not breaking through on messaging when it comes

462
00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 1: to the economy. But I feel like I'm more curious

463
00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 1: about what you think the Fed should do to kind

464
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: of pull us out of this, or do you think

465
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 1: it's better just a way.

466
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 3: No, I think the Fed they're doing their job.

467
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 4: They did the right thing by raising interest rates right

468
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 4: relative to the pace of inflation. And I think the

469
00:22:53,880 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 4: fact that they are not willing to kind of drop

470
00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 4: the mic and put up a mission impossible sort of

471
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 4: sign makes a lot of sense right here, because if

472
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:04,440
Speaker 4: the first three months of this year were any indication

473
00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 4: you know, about the potential for a reflation right and

474
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,520
Speaker 4: the disinflation of inflation, I know there was a.

475
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 3: Lot there, Like that is what their big worry is.

476
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 4: And so to me, keeping the rate high right has

477
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 4: the potential of slowing down the economy, which is essentially

478
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 4: what they want to do, right. They want to slower

479
00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: the pace of jobs growth, They're starting to do that.

480
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 4: They want to slower the pace of consumption, they're starting

481
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: to do that, right, And so the idea of taking

482
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 4: their foot off the pedal right now, then you run

483
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 4: the risk of basically lowering interest rates causing inflation to

484
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 4: get going again, making you know, just kind of financial

485
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,320
Speaker 4: conditions that much easier. And then you run the risk

486
00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,639
Speaker 4: of basically inflating a bubble in risk assets too. And

487
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 4: don't think for a second that the stock market, the

488
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,440
Speaker 4: housing market don't play into this because the wealth effect

489
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 4: that created by the stock market at all time highs

490
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 4: and housing market, you know, at unusually high levels, you know,

491
00:23:58,600 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 4: creates this situation where you know, no one can see

492
00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 4: an end in sight to risk asset inflation, and then

493
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 4: you run the risk of it popping like we had

494
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty two and a bear market.

495
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 1: So it really is a very delicate dance to try

496
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:17,439
Speaker 1: to lower inflation for the consumer because you know, for

497
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: the people in the middle of the country, for whom

498
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:24,720
Speaker 1: McDonald's is now, you know, twenty percent of the budget

499
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 1: as opposed to fifteen or whatever that looks like, and

500
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,919
Speaker 1: not get into one of these really dangerous cycles. But

501
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,960
Speaker 1: part of the fundamental problem with this economy is still

502
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 1: that it's too good.

503
00:24:37,520 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 4: Yeah well, I mean, listen, you're going to hear this

504
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 4: term all this time hot on Financial TV. That is

505
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:45,720
Speaker 4: a sort of Goldilock situation in a way. I mean,

506
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 4: corporate profits are doing very well. The ability to pass

507
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 4: through these price increases has been good for their margins

508
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:54,320
Speaker 4: and good for profitability. But you know, just this morning,

509
00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,320
Speaker 4: this is Thursday morning, as we're recording it, Walmart's earnings

510
00:24:57,359 --> 00:24:59,440
Speaker 4: are out. The stock is at a new all time

511
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 4: high nearly six percent. The headline is Walmart sales surge

512
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 4: as wealthy shoppers flock to retailers. So think about that.

513
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,800
Speaker 4: There's a trade down in the wealth level of their shoppers.

514
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 4: So people are starting to feel it. They're looking for value,

515
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 4: and those sorts of things have the ability to kind

516
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 4: of creep up and then have an effect, you know

517
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 4: what I mean on the economy all at once. You

518
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 4: have two thirds of our economy the GDP comes from

519
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 4: the consumer. So the warning signs are there that the

520
00:25:28,640 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 4: consumer is slowing at a time where unemployment is still

521
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:35,400
Speaker 4: really low, and that sort of ingredient with high inflation

522
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 4: and high interest rates have the potential to cause an

523
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:40,080
Speaker 4: economic downturn.

524
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:40,679
Speaker 3: You mentioned it.

525
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 4: A lot of folks coming into twenty twenty three were

526
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 4: convinced that we were going to have a recession. We

527
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 4: never did. The FED was getting ready to ease policy,

528
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: but then inflation picked back up. And you know, we

529
00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 4: haven't even mentioned geopolitics. And one of the biggest kickers

530
00:25:55,200 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 4: back in early twenty twenty two was when Russia invaded.

531
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: Ukraine, right because of fuel.

532
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,720
Speaker 4: Right, and so fuel costs went up dramatically, and so

533
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 4: it also disrupted supply chains. So when you think about this,

534
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,600
Speaker 4: one of the reasons why a lot of folks that

535
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 4: look at markets and look at the economy are really

536
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 4: concerned about the situation with China and Taiwan is that

537
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 4: another disruption to supply chains like we saw in COVID.

538
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,920
Speaker 4: The national security risks of all of this centralized manufacturing

539
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 4: and supply chains dependent on China has the potential to

540
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,120
Speaker 4: cause massive inflationary pressures, especially as we reshore jobs, whether

541
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 4: it be in semiconductors or other parts of manufacturing. And

542
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 4: the last point I'll just say, and this is bipartisan

543
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,800
Speaker 4: because the Trump administration started this back in early in

544
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,399
Speaker 4: their administration, the tariffs and the trade war. You know,

545
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,200
Speaker 4: the Biden administration has leaned into this. We're seeing lots

546
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 4: of teriffs being placed on that's also inflationary, So let's talk.

547
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 1: About the tariffs. This is one of the few times

548
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: ever that the Trump administration may have done something right,

549
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: which is baffling to me because of the more they

550
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,800
Speaker 1: had running that hip and the advice they were taking

551
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 1: from people like Larry Goudlow, who is a lovely person

552
00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: but is wrong about almost everything. So explain to us

553
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: why Trump World was right about tariffs when it comes

554
00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:16,800
Speaker 1: to China, and also just explain to me why inflationary

555
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 1: tariffs are somehow good now.

556
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 3: They're really not. I mean.

557
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,320
Speaker 4: So the point is, I think a lot of it

558
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:25,680
Speaker 4: has to do with diversification away from those supply chains

559
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 4: in China, and also the idea and we've been dealing

560
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 4: with this in the US as it relates to manufacturing

561
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 4: for fifty years. You know, Japan was the bugaboo back

562
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: in the eighties that they were going to dump cars

563
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 4: on us and destroy Detroit, and to some degree they

564
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 4: really did. Right now, as you think about the bideninistration

565
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 4: and what they're doing, I mean, they want to be

566
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 4: very pro Detroit auto manufacturing. And we saw that earlier

567
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 4: in the year with the UAW strikes when Biden went

568
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,879
Speaker 4: and got on the picket line. Right now, that serves

569
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 4: him politically very well, right to have a very strong

570
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 4: message message in Michigan. It's one of the only battle

571
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 4: ground states that he's doing pretty decently. And so the

572
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:06,800
Speaker 4: idea that the Chinese, which have gotten really good at

573
00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:11,159
Speaker 4: developing low cost electric vehicles, that they could be selling

574
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,560
Speaker 4: them here in the US. It would absolutely sink Tesla,

575
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,400
Speaker 4: which is the leader right now in high end electric vehicles.

576
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 4: Elon Musk has wind about it on many occasions that

577
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 4: the Chinese have the potential just to destroy USV manufacturing.

578
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 3: So he's right about that.

579
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: But really, if you think about the number of cars

580
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 4: that are coming out of Detroit that are fully electric,

581
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 4: I think it was basically one percent of the fifteen

582
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 4: million cars that were made and shipped in America last year,

583
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifty thousand I think between Ford and GM.

584
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: So this is a very nascent industry here in the US.

585
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 4: I think a lot of folks who are really focused

586
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 4: on this from a environmental standpoint would like to see,

587
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 4: let's say, the Chinese innovation help basically spur competition here

588
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 4: in the US, which will give many, many more consumers

589
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 4: access to these vehicles. And if these ariffs at one

590
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 4: hundred percent coming in from China are basically going to

591
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 4: block US consumers from buying cheap Chinese EV's, but I

592
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 4: just don't think there's demand for cheap Chinese.

593
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 3: Evs anyway here.

594
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,560
Speaker 4: But again that's the risk, and they're also putting them

595
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 4: on steel and a whole host of other things. And

596
00:29:17,760 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 4: again going back to the Trump administration, you know that

597
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 4: wasn't that popular if you think about it back at

598
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: the time on certain forms of manufacturing companies because they

599
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,560
Speaker 4: rely on that cheap steel and they lost a lot

600
00:29:29,560 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 4: of jobs in the heartland because of those high terraffs.

601
00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:36,560
Speaker 1: Right. So, do you think ultimately the Trump world was

602
00:29:36,600 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: wrong and Biden world is wrong?

603
00:29:38,600 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 3: No, I think they were probably right.

604
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 4: If you think about this sort of deal that the

605
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 4: US manufacturing had made that benefited US consumers some fifty

606
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 4: years ago. You know, we got addicted to cheap manufactured

607
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 4: goods in China, but at the hollowing out of our

608
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,239
Speaker 4: manufacturing capabilities has done a number on our economy if

609
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 4: you think about it, right, And so I think they

610
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 4: were probably right in some manners. I think the Biden

611
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 4: administration basically left all those tariffs in place, and now

612
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 4: we're getting a bit more aggressive. You know, again, a

613
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 4: lot of it is messaging, right, and how you want

614
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 4: to play in this global you know playing field. I mean,

615
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 4: the Trump administration they basically went after very hard, you know,

616
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 4: China and some other parts of the world, and that

617
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 4: was you know, basically one of their big economic messages,

618
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,560
Speaker 4: and for many reasons it's right. But the other thing

619
00:30:27,600 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 4: I'll just say is that, you know, if you think

620
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 4: about twenty and sixteen to twenty and twenty four, what

621
00:30:33,680 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 4: is starting to become very apparent is China is much

622
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 4: weaker than we would have given them any credit for.

623
00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 3: You know, than a few years ago.

624
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 4: They have a massive demographic problem, they have huge economic

625
00:30:44,400 --> 00:30:47,160
Speaker 4: problems that have not really made it to our shores

626
00:30:47,320 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 4: just yet, and so maybe they're not the sort of

627
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 4: you know adversary economically that we think they are. And therefore,

628
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 4: you know, the idea of kind of pressing their neck

629
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,520
Speaker 4: right now may cause them to do something that we

630
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 4: don't want them to do on the geopolitical front, and

631
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: that is some sort of you know, embargo on Taiwan

632
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 4: or as trying to take Taiwan, because that would be

633
00:31:08,160 --> 00:31:10,680
Speaker 4: something that I think would be disasterus if you thought

634
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 4: the Ukraine invasion was bad for all the things we

635
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 4: just talked about, you know, cutting off access to chips

636
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:21,040
Speaker 4: and by the way, Taiwan makes probably eighty five percent

637
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 4: of high end chips right now, they're distributed all over

638
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 4: the world.

639
00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 3: That would be a very bad thing for the global economy.

640
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, these are all really really salient and important points.

641
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: And China is both not as strong as we worry

642
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: they are, but also way more dangerous than Russia ultimately

643
00:31:39,760 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 1: because they have money and they have real stuff. I

644
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: want you just for a second to talk about there

645
00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 1: are people on the left. They're like the politicians that

646
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 1: my husband hates, but I like them ideologically, But he

647
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 1: hates them because he's a venture capitalist and he's the best,

648
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 1: but I think he's wrong on this. But they want

649
00:31:57,560 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: to push to lower gross prices. I'm talking about Elizabeth Warren,

650
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: I'm talking about Bernie Sanders. This is like capitalist creates

651
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 1: a lot of capitalist anxiety. I mean, is there a

652
00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: place for.

653
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 3: That or now? Not really?

654
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, when you think about it, past

655
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 4: administrations they've looked for different ways to kind of you know,

656
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 4: like through the social safety net to kind of, you know,

657
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 4: help reduce the cost of some of these things. But

658
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, you know, we really

659
00:32:22,520 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 4: don't have mechanisms in our capitalistic kind of.

660
00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 3: Way of life to do that, right.

661
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,440
Speaker 4: And so again this comes down to the sort of

662
00:32:29,520 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 4: choices that you make and the parties that you align with,

663
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 4: and you know, the Democratic Party, whether it be the

664
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 4: far left coming up with these sorts of plans, it's

665
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,120
Speaker 4: kind of helping move the center to the left, I

666
00:32:39,160 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 4: think a little bit if that makes some sense on

667
00:32:41,280 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 4: some of these issues that I know you and I

668
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:46,120
Speaker 4: and your husband care deeply about. But the way in

669
00:32:46,160 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 4: which people want to institute these policies are very different. Right,

670
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 4: So when I think about this, one of the major

671
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 4: differences that I always consider when I think about some

672
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 4: of let's say, the economic policies on the right that

673
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,840
Speaker 4: make some sense to me more so than say coming

674
00:32:58,880 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 4: out of Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. I mean, what I

675
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:03,880
Speaker 4: care about is that our tax dollars go to the

676
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 4: most vulnerable in some ways, to some of the most

677
00:33:06,640 --> 00:33:09,680
Speaker 4: vulnerable citizens in our country. And I think on the

678
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 4: right they think of them as handouts, right, And so

679
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 4: to me, that's where just I just like draw the

680
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 4: line to some degree. So again, I don't agree with

681
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 4: Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, but I do believe that the

682
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 4: Democratic Party, and I think the things that they stand

683
00:33:23,440 --> 00:33:25,480
Speaker 4: for as it relates to the social safety that are

684
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 4: worth fighting for.

685
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 3: And that's where I stand.

686
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 1: Thank you, Dan, You're the best, all.

687
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: Right, Olli, John Fast, It's always a plusure.

688
00:33:34,360 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: Jacob Rubashkan is an analyst and reporter for Inside Elections.

689
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Jacob Rubashkan.

690
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 5: Thank you so much for having me.

691
00:33:44,360 --> 00:33:48,880
Speaker 1: So let's talk about what the landscape looks like in

692
00:33:48,920 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four.

693
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, leak for Democrats on the Senate side at least.

694
00:33:53,560 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 1: First, let's talk about the Senate map. Primaries went basically

695
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 1: as good as they could for Democrats, right, Yeah.

696
00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 5: I think in the places where Democrats needed wins, they

697
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 5: got them. They got the candidates they preferred and some

698
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,440
Speaker 5: of the tougher races, and obviously Democrats one thing that

699
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,120
Speaker 5: they have going for them is that they don't have

700
00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,280
Speaker 5: very many primaries themselves, right. I Mean, it's almost entirely

701
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 5: incumbents or people without primaries. Maryland was really kind of

702
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 5: the big competitive race that also had a competitive primary,

703
00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 5: was a standout in that regard.

704
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,959
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that. I feel like black women

705
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 1: candidates have kind of gotten screwed, especially when it comes

706
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: to Senate. We've only had three black women senators, which

707
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: is insanity. But it looks like that's possibly about to.

708
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 5: Change, right, Yeah, No, I think that it will most

709
00:34:43,719 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 5: likely change. There are two black women who are poised

710
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,959
Speaker 5: to win their Senate races this cycle. I mean, Lisa

711
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,000
Speaker 5: Blunt Rochester in Delaware is basically a shoe in. She

712
00:34:54,040 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 5: doesn't face any real opposition in her primary or in

713
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,759
Speaker 5: the general election, so she's going to be there next year.

714
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 5: And Angela also Brooks in Maryland. I think we still

715
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 5: consider her the favorite to win the Maryland Senate race,

716
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 5: even against Larry Hogan. It'll be a tough contest, but

717
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,560
Speaker 5: we see her favorite, and she would be of course,

718
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:13,799
Speaker 5: the other black women in the Senate, they would go

719
00:35:13,840 --> 00:35:16,359
Speaker 5: from zero to two, and two is more than they've

720
00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:19,720
Speaker 5: ever had at the same time in the Senate in history.

721
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: We have a black woman senator from California right now,

722
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: but she's about to be replaced by a white man. Yes,

723
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: let's just game this out. There's a slate of really

724
00:35:30,160 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: bad polls that show a lot of stuff. But if

725
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 1: we were just to go on twenty twenty two, or

726
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:41,400
Speaker 1: even twenty twenty three, or even twenty twenty all of

727
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 1: the elections where Democrats have overperformed, and you were to

728
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 1: be a little optimistic, what Senate seats. Do you think

729
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 1: Democrats can either keep or pick up.

730
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 5: Look, I think that in the best case scenario for Democrats,

731
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 5: they hold everything except West Virginia. I mean, West Virginia

732
00:35:58,000 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 5: is off the board. I don't even talk about it

733
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 5: anymore because it's so out of mind. Without Joe Manchin,

734
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 5: that seat is gone and that up ends the whole math.

735
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,719
Speaker 5: But we'll leave that aside for a second. I think

736
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:11,640
Speaker 5: there are paths to victory for both John Tester and

737
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 5: Montana and Sheared Brown in Ohio. Those are the two

738
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 5: most vulnerable seats, but it's not West Virginia territory. They're

739
00:36:17,800 --> 00:36:20,760
Speaker 5: not being triaged, they're not dead men walking.

740
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:26,280
Speaker 1: And they are also amazing candidates that are pretty different.

741
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:29,040
Speaker 1: You know, those candidates are amazing candidates.

742
00:36:29,120 --> 00:36:31,040
Speaker 5: And this is something that Democrats have going for them,

743
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 5: is though they brought back almost all of their incumbents,

744
00:36:33,520 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 5: and that really makes a difference. A lot of the

745
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 5: time when we see big swings in Senate composition, it

746
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 5: is because incumbents decide not to run for reelection. I mean,

747
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 5: think about twenty fourteen, which I think is still kind

748
00:36:47,719 --> 00:36:50,399
Speaker 5: of If you're trying to understand why Democrats have been

749
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 5: such a deep hole in the Senate for so long.

750
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 5: Twenty fourteen is the year that you have to look to.

751
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 5: Republicans flipped nine seats that year. It was a blood

752
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 5: bat and it was in part because they had they

753
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 5: want a bunch of really narrow victories in states against

754
00:37:04,840 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 5: incumbents like North Carolina and Alaska, but also because Parkin

755
00:37:08,480 --> 00:37:12,839
Speaker 5: retired in Iowa, and you had other Democratic senators in

756
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 5: Republican states who didn't even bother trying to win reelection.

757
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:19,759
Speaker 5: They just hung up the cleats and went home. And

758
00:37:19,800 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 5: I think what is keeping Democratic hopes alive is that

759
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 5: neither John Tester nor Shared Brown made that calculation. This time,

760
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 5: they're giving the party a fighting chance in both of

761
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 5: those states.

762
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: Let's talk about here's one that because I'm still very

763
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:42,720
Speaker 1: salty from twenty twenty two and the fucking Wisconsin Senate

764
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,920
Speaker 1: where Ron Annon was polling nine points ahead and won

765
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:51,919
Speaker 1: against Mandela Barns by one point. If you were looking

766
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:53,640
Speaker 1: at this map, what would be that seed?

767
00:37:53,960 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 5: So this one we actually see in a better position

768
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 5: for Democrats than most of their other vulnerable seats.

769
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 1: What are we we're talking about Tavy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Yeah, yeah,

770
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:10,360
Speaker 1: she's gonna win. That guy's an asshole, sorry, Eric Coovey,

771
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 1: and who comes from California owns a bank.

772
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 5: The matchup there, I think generally plays well to Senator

773
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,920
Speaker 5: Baldwin's strength. Huv D Eric hove.

774
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: D with a ridiculous little mustache.

775
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,799
Speaker 5: He ran for senate in twenty twelve Sands mustache didn't

776
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,520
Speaker 5: even win the primary, so the mustache at least has

777
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 5: helped him clear the primary field this time, right or Ormon.

778
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,920
Speaker 5: What he has going for him is he is really

779
00:38:34,960 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 5: really rich, and he unlike some really rich guys who

780
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:42,760
Speaker 5: run for office and don't spend any money or spend

781
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,320
Speaker 5: a little bit of money, he really is is opening

782
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:49,160
Speaker 5: up his checkbook and has already been able to go

783
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:54,520
Speaker 5: up on TV and prosecute a message against Senator Baldwin.

784
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 5: But you know, he's got the baggage too, He's got

785
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,440
Speaker 5: the California stuff. He has a pension for speaking his

786
00:39:01,560 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 5: mind in somewhat blunt ways that doesn't sit well with voters.

787
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 5: I mean, he made those comments about how people in

788
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 5: nursing homes might not you know, have the faculties to

789
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 5: be able to vote.

790
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,719
Speaker 1: Insulting old people is always a good way when you're

791
00:39:13,760 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: running for office, always a good moment.

792
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 5: And you know, in Wisconsin, he made a comment if

793
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 5: I had to start all over, I would say we

794
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 5: shouldn't have legal alcohol sales. He presents some opportunities to

795
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 5: Democrats to paint him as kind of an out of

796
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:30,280
Speaker 5: touch rich guy who's not in it or the people

797
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 5: of Wisconsin. And that's why, you know, I think that

798
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,880
Speaker 5: we see Senator Baldwin in a stronger position than either

799
00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 5: Shared Brown or John Tester, but also Jackie Rosen in

800
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,239
Speaker 5: Nevada and Bob Casey and Pennsylvania and some of these

801
00:39:43,280 --> 00:39:46,000
Speaker 5: other candidates as well. You know, Wisconsin I think is

802
00:39:46,320 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 5: in a better spot for Democrats than a lot of

803
00:39:48,960 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 5: these other highly competitive Senate races.

804
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 1: Talk to me about the Senate race that's not on

805
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 1: the map but maybe should be.

806
00:39:56,560 --> 00:40:00,200
Speaker 5: I mean, I think both parties have arguments to make

807
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 5: for one or two states that we don't currently see

808
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,600
Speaker 5: as super competitive. On the Democratic side, I think Florida

809
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,440
Speaker 5: is the obvious candidate here at the moment, we have

810
00:40:10,480 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 5: Florida rated solid Republican because it's just not clear that

811
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 5: the likely nominee there. Former Congresswoman w macarstole Powell is

812
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:20,560
Speaker 5: going to be able to stand up the kind of

813
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 5: operation needed to run in the third largest state in

814
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 5: the Union. I mean, Florida is incredibly expensive and she

815
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 5: is not such an incredible fundraiser compared to some of

816
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 5: these other Democrats.

817
00:40:32,200 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 1: And he's got a gazillion dollars.

818
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 5: And he's got a gazillion dollars and he will spend it.

819
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,480
Speaker 5: I mean, he spent sixty million on his run in

820
00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 5: twenty eighteen. Money is no problem for him. And because

821
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 5: the Biden campaign probably isn't going to invest heavily in Florida,

822
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 5: she's going to have to do it on her own.

823
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 5: And we just at the moment, it doesn't seem like

824
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 5: that is going to happen. It's not going to all

825
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 5: come together for her. And you know, the Florida Democratic

826
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 5: Party has really been struggled in recent years to build

827
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:04,080
Speaker 5: up any kind of infrastructure at a state level, and

828
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 5: so it's difficult. But if things really get better for Biden,

829
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 5: if all of a sudden he's competitive in Florida and

830
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:12,640
Speaker 5: she's able to really kick her fundraising into high gear,

831
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 5: then yeah, Rick Scott has never won a race by

832
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 5: more than one percentage point in the decade he's been

833
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:20,919
Speaker 5: in politics. On paper, this is a seat that could

834
00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 5: come online for Democrats on the Republican side. The one

835
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 5: or two that I think they would probably want to

836
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:29,279
Speaker 5: make a run at, or New Mexico or Virginia. I'd

837
00:41:29,280 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 5: probably place New Mexico above that, just because you know,

838
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 5: this is a state that used to be.

839
00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:38,240
Speaker 1: Because of the Hispanic poll and vote at the polls.

840
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 5: So New Mexico has the highest Hispanic population I believe

841
00:41:41,520 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 5: of any state in the country. Republicans have a recruit

842
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,200
Speaker 5: in that state that they like, Nela Dimnici. She's the

843
00:41:47,280 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 5: daughter of former Senator Pete Domenici, so she's got some

844
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,520
Speaker 5: built in name id. She is wealthy, and so she

845
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:56,280
Speaker 5: has some self funding capacity. And Martin Heinrich, the incumbent Democrat,

846
00:41:56,680 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 5: is not a particularly flashy member. He's not on TV

847
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 5: all the time. He's not kind of a high profile

848
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 5: member of the caucus, which can cut both ways. But

849
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 5: I think it might give Republicans an opportunity to define

850
00:42:08,520 --> 00:42:11,280
Speaker 5: him a little bit in voters' minds. But New Mexico

851
00:42:11,360 --> 00:42:13,640
Speaker 5: is not going to be a competitive presidential state unless

852
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,960
Speaker 5: the bottom falls out for Biden, right, So like you

853
00:42:16,040 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 5: kind of have these extremes on either side. Depending on

854
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,160
Speaker 5: where the presidential race goes, we could see one or

855
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 5: the other be competitive.

856
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, seems unlikely. So talk to me about the House.

857
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:32,200
Speaker 5: So the House is definitely a more positive territory for

858
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 5: Democrats than the Senate is. I mean, the Senate is

859
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 5: truly almost entirely defense. That's not a comfortable position to

860
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 5: be the House. Of course, they're in the minority right now,

861
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 5: so by definition they have more room to grow, and

862
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 5: they have room to grow in Democratic leaning territory. There

863
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,399
Speaker 5: are a handful of seats in California and New York

864
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:53,360
Speaker 5: that Biden would have carried by double digits last cycle

865
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 5: that Democrats absolutely have to win back if they want

866
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 5: to flip control of the House. I mean, that is

867
00:42:59,520 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 5: the main path to the majority, and then kind of

868
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 5: everything else. The other seats out there, and there are

869
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:09,320
Speaker 5: probably another fifteen seats that are conceivably targetable on Democratic

870
00:43:09,400 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 5: side and on Republican side. That'll determine how big the

871
00:43:12,239 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 5: majority is for either party. But it's going to come

872
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 5: down to those seats in the middle. If Democrats want

873
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 5: to retake control redistricting, there were a couple of states

874
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 5: that redrew their maps. Ultimately, it looks like pretty much

875
00:43:27,000 --> 00:43:29,240
Speaker 5: a wash. Republicans are going to pick up a couple

876
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:32,120
Speaker 5: seats out of North Carolina, but Democrats are going to

877
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 5: pick up a seat in Alabama and a seat in Louisiana.

878
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 5: So you know, call it R plus one. But you

879
00:43:38,239 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 5: know that's the kind of number that comes out in

880
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:44,080
Speaker 5: the wash. It's not really a major upending of the

881
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 5: congressional map from last year to this year at least.

882
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:51,880
Speaker 1: So what seats are you in the House? What do

883
00:43:51,920 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 1: you think has promised for Democrats? Where do you think

884
00:43:54,719 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 1: they can flow?

885
00:43:56,040 --> 00:44:00,239
Speaker 5: So, look, there are two seats on Long Island that

886
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 5: Democrats are interested in, the first district in the fourth district.

887
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 5: I think the fourth district is that one of the

888
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 5: number one pick up opportunities. Maybe number one would have

889
00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 5: voted for Biden.

890
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: Who is that?

891
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 5: That's Congressman Anthony des Posito.

892
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,440
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, that's the one that John Avlon is

893
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: running for.

894
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 5: Right, No, So he's running in the first district, which

895
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,120
Speaker 5: is Nick Loloda.

896
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:24,520
Speaker 1: Who's ds Posito running in.

897
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 5: So d s Posito is running against Laura Gillen, who

898
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:31,160
Speaker 5: is the former Hempstead Town Supervisor. She ran against him

899
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 5: last cycle two and lost by like two points or

900
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,640
Speaker 5: something like that, and she's back for the rematch. And

901
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:40,960
Speaker 5: so that you know, that district voted for Biden by

902
00:44:40,960 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 5: a greater margin than any other seat currently held by

903
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 5: a Republican. So that's certainly top of the list. And

904
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 5: then you kind of go up through the Hudson Valley

905
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 5: New York seventeen with Mike Lawler running against Mandair Jones.

906
00:44:54,640 --> 00:44:56,279
Speaker 5: That's going to be a big race. And then the

907
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 5: twenty second district, I think is actually probably a Democrat's

908
00:44:59,800 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 5: best shot anywhere of flipping a seat.

909
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:02,560
Speaker 2: What is that?

910
00:45:02,800 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 5: So that's Brandon Williams is the Republican. He's a freshman.

911
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 5: It's kind of a Syracuse based on Indaga County district.

912
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,640
Speaker 5: There's a Democratic primary there currently going on for the

913
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 5: next couple of weeks. They've got to sort that out.

914
00:45:16,120 --> 00:45:20,359
Speaker 5: But then Williams is very vulnerable. He is more conservative

915
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:24,279
Speaker 5: than the district typically goes for, so we actually see

916
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 5: him as like the most vulnerable Republican in the country

917
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:27,760
Speaker 5: right now.

918
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:30,359
Speaker 1: Oh wow, And then what about on this now it's

919
00:45:30,400 --> 00:45:31,040
Speaker 1: in California.

920
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, so there are a couple of seats in kind

921
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:36,040
Speaker 5: of the La Orange County area that are going to

922
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 5: be very crucial. So Mike Garcia in California's twenty seventh district.

923
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 5: This is kind of Antelope Valley. It's on the other

924
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 5: side of LA from the Palm Springs District. There is

925
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:50,279
Speaker 5: a Palm Springs district as well that's going to be competitive.

926
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 5: Will Rollins is the Democrat there.

927
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, we've had him on a number of times.

928
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:57,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, running against Ken Calvert, So that's going to be

929
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,480
Speaker 5: a tough race. Rollins isn't very strong fundraiser. I think

930
00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 5: he's probably one of the best fundraisers that Democrats have

931
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:07,359
Speaker 5: on the challenger side this cycle. But you know those

932
00:46:07,400 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 5: two races, there's the Michelle Steele seat, which is California's

933
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 5: forty fifth district, is going to be competitive, and then

934
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 5: there are two seats in the Central Valley. Adam Gray

935
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 5: is running against Congressman John Duarti in the thirteenth district,

936
00:46:23,480 --> 00:46:26,200
Speaker 5: and that was a race that both of those guys

937
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,319
Speaker 5: ran last time. Duarte beat him, but I want to say,

938
00:46:29,360 --> 00:46:31,440
Speaker 5: like five hundred votes. It was very narrow.

939
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 3: It was like this.

940
00:46:32,120 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 5: It was the second narrowest after Adam Frisch. It was

941
00:46:35,560 --> 00:46:38,720
Speaker 5: the second narrowest race in the country. And then David

942
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 5: Valdeo is also in that area, another seat that would

943
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,240
Speaker 5: have voted for Biden by a lot and is represented

944
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 5: by a Republican, and he's also in a rematch against

945
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:50,879
Speaker 5: Rudy Sallis, who's a former state assembly man who's back

946
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 5: for another shot at the seat. So a number of

947
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 5: rematches in California and other highly competitive races that will

948
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 5: also determine and whether Democrats can win back these seats.

949
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,960
Speaker 5: I mean, if they're not able to win back seats

950
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 5: that Biden was carrying by ten plus points.

951
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,799
Speaker 1: Right right, right, that's real weird. So let me ask you,

952
00:47:12,280 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: is Lauren Bobert safe?

953
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 2: Now?

954
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 1: Talk to us about the sort of crazies like the

955
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: Matt Gates, the Anna Paulina Luna bad Crow, the Arson s.

956
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:25,880
Speaker 5: Lauren Bobert is an interesting one because she made that

957
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 5: district jump. Right, if she had remained in her current district,

958
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 5: she'd be very vulnerable. I think she knew that. That's

959
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 5: why she drove across the state. Right we were talking

960
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,840
Speaker 5: hundreds of miles from the third district to the fourth

961
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 5: district to try and run in a very crowded Republican

962
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:43,080
Speaker 5: primary in a safe seat. Now she's got to win

963
00:47:43,080 --> 00:47:45,799
Speaker 5: her primary, which is going to be tough. When is

964
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 5: the primary it's coming up? I want to say June

965
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 5: twenty fifth is the Colorado primary, and you know, if

966
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:55,719
Speaker 5: she can win her primary, then she'll be set, you know,

967
00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 5: for however long she wants, until you know, if they

968
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 5: redraw the district in a decade or whatever. But that's

969
00:48:00,640 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 5: a very solid Republican district. Matt Gates similar story. I mean,

970
00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:08,520
Speaker 5: that's the Florida Panhandle is among the most Republican places

971
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:12,080
Speaker 5: in the country at this point. Marjorie Taylor Green Northeast

972
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:15,840
Speaker 5: Northwest Georgia is you know, that's Republican country. And a

973
00:48:15,920 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 5: Paulina Luna is an interesting one because that district on

974
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 5: paper is a little swing yer kind of that Saint

975
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:25,600
Speaker 5: Petersburg Tampa Bay area. Charlie crist held that seat for

976
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:29,200
Speaker 5: a while. There is a crowded Democratic primary there, which

977
00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 5: I'm kind of surprised by because it's not a top

978
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:35,840
Speaker 5: tier opportunity, but you've got four or five Democrats running

979
00:48:36,160 --> 00:48:39,360
Speaker 5: credible campaigns trying to get the nomination there. I think

980
00:48:39,440 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 5: that if we see some sort of snap back for

981
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 5: Democrats in Florida. That's the one seat that could be

982
00:48:45,320 --> 00:48:47,960
Speaker 5: competitive in the entire state. You know, pretty incredible. Almost

983
00:48:48,000 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 5: thirty congressional districts in this state, and at most one

984
00:48:51,120 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 5: or two of them would conceivably flip. They did a

985
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:57,200
Speaker 5: very good job of gerrymandering that state when they redraw

986
00:48:57,280 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 5: the maps last cycle. But she's a kind of that

987
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 5: caucus that Austin Kevin McCarthy and has been causing so

988
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 5: much trouble for Republican leadership. She's the one who comes

989
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 5: from the swingiest district by far.

990
00:49:11,120 --> 00:49:15,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's so interesting. Thank you so much. Jacob Robashkan, Yeah,

991
00:49:16,000 --> 00:49:23,359
Speaker 1: powis a pleasure. No sick, Jesse Cannon.

992
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 6: My junk fast. You know, we all know that Trump

993
00:49:27,640 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 6: gets compared to a mob boss a lot, but trickling

994
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 6: down what all the people below him should say really

995
00:49:33,440 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 6: puts a fine note on it.

996
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:39,520
Speaker 1: New York Magazine journalist Andrew Rice said he saw as

997
00:49:39,560 --> 00:49:42,640
Speaker 1: he was sitting in the courtroom, Donald Trump editing what

998
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 1: he was going to have his surrogate say, getting around

999
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,520
Speaker 1: the gag order, having them malign the judge and his

1000
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:57,520
Speaker 1: daughter during his criminal trial while his former lawyer and fixer,

1001
00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: Michael Cohen testifies about his hush money payments to an

1002
00:50:03,000 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 1: adult film star. That, my friends, is our moment of U.

1003
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 3: Right.

1004
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:12,480
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

1005
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:15,760
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to hear the best minds

1006
00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 1: in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you

1007
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,800
Speaker 1: enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend

1008
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.