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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Ah now do you Billy?

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Speaker 1: Whose guys are Good? Hello everyone, and welcome to a

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Speaker 1: special episode of the Action Network podcast presented by FanDuel.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael Leeboff. Joining me is Nick Martin,

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Speaker 1: and this is an NHL mid season update. The trade

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Speaker 1: deadline in the NHL is on Friday, so we're in

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Speaker 1: the business end of the season, Nick, and we're heading

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Speaker 1: down the stretch. Here's a quick look at the Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup future board presented by FanDuel. Of course, the Bruins

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Speaker 1: at the top at five to one. The Avalanche are

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Speaker 1: the second choice six fifty, and then it's all Eastern

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Speaker 1: Conference for a while. Carolina Hurricanes plus seven fifty. Toronto

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Speaker 1: may beleifs just under double digits their plus nine fifty.

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Speaker 1: The Rangers are twelve to one, Lightning twelve to one,

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Speaker 1: Devil's twelve to one. It's tough to find any kind

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Speaker 1: of like true value here because the deadline usually once

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Speaker 1: a team makes a move, the number will either crash

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Speaker 1: or it's already been kind of baked in because the

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Speaker 1: bookmakers know that Timo Meyers going to the Devil's for example,

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Speaker 1: or Patrick Kane and Tyre sank going to the Rangers,

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Speaker 1: et cetera.

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Speaker 2: Stuff like that.

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Speaker 1: The one team I would say is interesting at their

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Speaker 1: current Stanley Cup odds is Los Angeles. They're thirty two

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Speaker 1: to one, and it's a two part play. Number one,

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Speaker 1: the Kings are good and they could get a lot

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Speaker 1: better if they got a good goaltender at the deadline.

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Speaker 1: Right now, they're riding with Phoenix Copley, who's a journeyman

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Speaker 1: ahl goalie, and Jonathan Quick has been terrible. If they

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Speaker 1: address that issue, this team that's been that's solid in

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Speaker 1: every other area, the ceiling goes up and the Western Conference.

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Speaker 1: The second part is the fact that the Western Conference

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Speaker 1: path is just wide open, especially if they avoid Colorado.

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Speaker 1: If Colorado doesn't finish in a wildcard spot, you avoid

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Speaker 1: Colorado until the Western Conference final, you're talking about coin

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Speaker 1: flips against either Vegas Edminton's, Seattle, et cetera. So the

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Speaker 1: Kings are the only team I think at their current

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Speaker 1: price that's worth a look.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and I think that's ties into a

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Speaker 2: good note because the with the Kings, the only series

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Speaker 2: where they're going to be a heavy dog would be

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Speaker 2: playing Colorado, especially assuming they made potentially a pickup which

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Speaker 2: they haven't done yet, which is kind of the other

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Speaker 2: part of your point. If you're going to if you're

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Speaker 2: going to make a play based off a team making

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Speaker 2: a pickup, you want to try to do it before

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Speaker 2: the numbers move and like anticipate. You don't want to

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Speaker 2: be the guy reacting three hours after the odds makers

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Speaker 2: have to What has just happened to Tim Omeyer heading

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Speaker 2: to New Jersey and swinging the line and you talked

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Speaker 2: about how the top six teams in East, how competitive

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Speaker 2: it's going to be. I'll use New Jersey to break

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Speaker 2: down and I know this is fairly known that like

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Speaker 2: if you're going to lay a future, you want to

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Speaker 2: try to think about like what the parlay of things

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Speaker 2: needs to be and what the actual value of that.

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Speaker 2: I think right now New Jersey's are really obvious example

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Speaker 2: of why maybe not always place in the future. If

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Speaker 2: you just want to roll your money over, that can

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Speaker 2: hold more value. So if we look at New Jersey's

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Speaker 2: path in what is a super stacked East, and I

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Speaker 2: like New Jersey, everyone who's followed me all your nose.

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Speaker 2: I think that team's really really good and Meyer is

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Speaker 2: going to.

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Speaker 1: Help them a lot.

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Speaker 2: With that said, so they're twelve to one on FanDuel.

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Speaker 2: So first round they'll play New York. I think they're

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Speaker 2: maybe a slight favorite there, so your one hundred dollars

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Speaker 2: becomes one hundred and eighty five. Second round you're looking

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Speaker 2: at Carolina. They're probably plus one hundred in that series.

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Speaker 2: Being generous, maybe plus one ten. So then your initial

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Speaker 2: bets looking at three seventy. Third round, they're playing Boston.

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Speaker 2: It's very generous to say that they're even, and I

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Speaker 2: shouldn't say I'm saying as a rule, they'll play Boston,

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Speaker 2: and I'm just hypothetically maybe it's an underdog there, probably

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Speaker 2: plus one ten your initial bets. Then, looking at around

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Speaker 2: eight hundred dollars in the final, maybe they would actually

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Speaker 2: be a decent favorite over some of the West teams.

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Speaker 2: But if they get Colorado, they're probably still an underdog.

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Speaker 2: You're talking about around fifteen hundred dollars in so now

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Speaker 2: on top of the fact that you have more flexibility,

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Speaker 2: the ability to get in and out. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's just an important note that I would say, especially

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Speaker 2: considering I'm a little light on actionable takes today. I

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Speaker 2: like the Kings you gave that. So I think that's

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Speaker 2: a really interesting note when we're talking about futures betting

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Speaker 2: and that that concept really applies in the East right now.

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Speaker 2: When you consider how many teams and even to tie

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Speaker 2: in Boston who are five to one to win it all,

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Speaker 2: Boston will still be about minus one p fifteen versus

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Speaker 2: Tampa or Toronto, Like, they're not gonna be a heavy

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Speaker 2: favored in that series. They'll be minus one twenty maybe,

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Speaker 2: Like I think, so if you're talking about the Bruins

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Speaker 2: holding value at plus five hundred, I think it's pretty

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Speaker 2: easy to make the case that that's probably not true

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Speaker 2: when you look at like what the route will actually

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Speaker 2: be because they'll have that first series where they'll be

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Speaker 2: a pretty heavy favorite, and then the next two they

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Speaker 2: won't be. And in the Cup final, if it's them

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Speaker 2: versus a healthy Apps, they're not gonna be much of

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Speaker 2: a favorite at all either.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good point, and I think, like you

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Speaker 1: were saying, you're being pretty generous. I think with because

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Speaker 1: you got to do when you're doing these working out

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Speaker 1: these rolling parlays, you got to do that, right. You

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Speaker 1: want to conservative with your your kind of projections. So

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Speaker 1: you could be looking at, like you said, like fifteen

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Speaker 1: to seventeen to one on a team like New Jersey

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Speaker 1: rather than twelve to one. So keep that in mind.

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about the trade deadline now and

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Speaker 1: kind of just look at it from a here's how

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Speaker 1: we're You know, you should approach these teams from a

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Speaker 1: game to game basis, because there's a couple teams that

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Speaker 1: have made splashy moves and there's one in particular that

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Speaker 1: is about to make in terms of just like player

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Speaker 1: name recognition to a casual fan, the biggest move, which

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Speaker 1: is the Rangers getting Patrick Kane. It's likely to happen

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday. They just got to wait for a crew

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Speaker 1: enough salary cap space to be able to do it

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Speaker 1: and the Rangers, as the Rangers have already traded for

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Tarasenko and depth defenseman Nico Mikola as well. Tarasenko,

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Speaker 1: it's been early, small sample, but he hasn't looked great

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Speaker 1: with the Rangers, like he's moving the needle. And I

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Speaker 1: don't really expect Kine to do it because there's a difference,

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Speaker 1: right between getting good players and getting players that make

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Speaker 1: you a better team. So the Rangers I don't want

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Speaker 1: to call them one dimensional. That's not fair to them.

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Speaker 1: They are more than that. But their best dimension is

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Speaker 1: their playmaking and their elite skill and Kine and Tarasanko

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Speaker 1: to some extent, Like when you get both of those guys,

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Speaker 1: it kind of just becomes redundant and doesn't address some

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Speaker 1: other holes that you're going to need to fill in

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Speaker 1: a playoff series where the margins are just so so thin.

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Speaker 1: So if you do see a reaction when the Arrangers

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Speaker 1: get Caane, I would bet against it, basically, is what

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Speaker 1: I'm saying, Like this team should they're generally overvalued. They've

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Speaker 1: they've been winning, so it's not been a take that's

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Speaker 1: been kind to me. But when you look at their

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Speaker 1: their statistical portfolio, how they win games, and the fact

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Speaker 1: that the goaltending isn't up to standard that it was

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Speaker 1: set at last year, I think that it becomes a

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Speaker 1: little dangerous if you're just going to blindly back this

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Speaker 1: team because they just got Patrick Kane on top of

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Tarasenko.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and I not to just always revert back to

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Speaker 2: like my initial point here, but I do think you're

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Speaker 2: going to want to keep that concept in mind with

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Speaker 2: the Rangers here because think about their path. Even if

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Speaker 2: they get Kane, it's not going to make them like

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Speaker 2: a big favorite over Carolina or the Devil's who just

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Speaker 2: got Timo Meyer. And I'm not picking on Kane here.

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Speaker 2: Twenty twenty three, Team Omeyer moves the needle more than

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Speaker 2: Patrick Kane, Like probably that's almost as a fact, I'd say,

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Speaker 2: unless Kane just happens to come up with some huge

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Speaker 2: moments in the playoffs, which is possible. But his defensive

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Speaker 2: impacts have been pretty bad. So we're trying to balance,

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Speaker 2: you know, like you're trying to balance a lot of

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Speaker 2: things because you're talking about, you know, if he's going

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Speaker 2: to be better away from Chicago, he's probably gonna be

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Speaker 2: better away from Chicago, but how much better because the

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Speaker 2: defensive impacts were pretty bad. And if you're talking about

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Speaker 2: putting him on a line with Pannerin or Tarasenko with

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Speaker 2: Vinnie Trotrek, that's a line that's I think when you

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Speaker 2: compare it to top lines from the East, like the Devil's,

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Speaker 2: I don't like the way that matches up at five

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Speaker 2: on five. So I like, like, I like the Rangers

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Speaker 2: this year. I think they're legit but I don't think

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Speaker 2: that puts them over the hump where I'm like, I

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Speaker 2: need to bet on this team to win the Cup

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Speaker 2: at all. And then I think another interesting note is

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Speaker 2: probably Tara Sinkle comes off the power play Kine. One

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Speaker 2: of his best assets right now is how it is

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Speaker 2: ability with the man advantage. I don't know how much

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Speaker 2: on a true above replacement level he helps what I

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Speaker 2: think is a good power play. He helps for sure,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's like less black and white how

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Speaker 2: they'll line it up and how they'll make it work

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Speaker 2: when he comes over. So it's me really it's a

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Speaker 2: really fun experiment to see and like the East is

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Speaker 2: going to be so exciting, but I don't think it's

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Speaker 2: like a black and white Like I'm seeing people annoyinging

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Speaker 2: them as like the outright favorite in the East. And

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Speaker 2: I think, if anything, you could say what they've done

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Speaker 2: doesn't help them more than what Toronto has done, than

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Speaker 2: what New Jersey has done, Like it's kind of like

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Speaker 2: a keep pace kind of thing. If not less than that.

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Speaker 1: I would agree with all that. We could talk about

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Speaker 1: a team that hasn't done anything yet, and that's Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Let's say they don't do anything. I've heard from someone

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Speaker 1: in Carolina that says he doesn't think they're gonna do anything.

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Speaker 1: They're just chalking last year up to bad luck, which

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Speaker 1: is the most Carolina Hurricanes thing I can think of doing,

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Speaker 1: because this team clearly has a couple needs. They're not

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Speaker 1: glaring needs like this is a great team. They're second

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Speaker 1: in the NHL or will look like, and they look

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Speaker 1: likely to finish second in the NHL this season. But

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Speaker 1: they're gonna need somebody who can just score the odd

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Speaker 1: easy goal. You know, Max Patry Ready was supposed to

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Speaker 1: be that person, and he towards acl bad luck, but

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Speaker 1: that leaves a hole. You gotta address it. They're not

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Speaker 1: going to do it. They could also use like one

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Speaker 1: more bottom pair of defenseman to show up that depth

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Speaker 1: as well. That said, I think that the like, let's

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Speaker 1: say the Hurricanes don't do anything like I could see

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Speaker 1: them that number kind of getting a little longer on

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Speaker 1: Carolina if they don't. If they are the quiet team

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Speaker 1: at the deadline and they don't do anything, let's say,

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Speaker 1: like the Devil's put some pressure on them, and maybe

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Speaker 1: we're all of a sudden looking at a a race

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Speaker 1: between the two The Devil's and Hurricanes for the division,

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Speaker 1: and it's close already, but if the Devils can like

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Speaker 1: kind of catch Carolina and turn it into a race.

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Speaker 1: Right now, Carolinas minus three thirty to win the Metro,

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Speaker 1: the Devils are three to one and the Rangers are

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Speaker 1: twenty four to one. If the gap shrinks between these

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Speaker 1: two teams and Carolina drifts, then you could start thinking about,

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Speaker 1: you know that that kind of same strategy with the

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Speaker 1: Hurricanes as well with the rolling parlay, because yeah, like

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Speaker 1: they do have some holes, but it's not like what

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Speaker 1: it does is kind of puts them over over you know,

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Speaker 1: fifty rather than a coin flip against a team like

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Speaker 1: the Devils are the Rangers, that would put them as

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Speaker 1: like a slight favorite if they got a score, and

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Speaker 1: if the number drifts enough, I think they all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden become you know, pretty interesting. But I guess

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Speaker 1: that what I'm trying to say here is if I'm

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Hurricanes, I still try to go get something.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you summarize it all pretty well. Their

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Speaker 2: team's good enough to win the Cup as it is,

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Speaker 2: so like you can't completely shred them. I guess if

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Speaker 2: for doing nothing but I also think that shows that

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Speaker 2: like you should be doing something when you're you know,

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Speaker 2: when their team's doing what it is. And it's not

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Speaker 2: like this is even compared to say, like Boston, and

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Speaker 2: I think Boston Stilton clear holes, but they just they

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Speaker 2: have places where you can point and say they could

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Speaker 2: use an upgrade despite how incredibly good they've been. It's

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Speaker 2: not like you're looking at their forward core being like

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Speaker 2: we could not possibly find a way to get like

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Speaker 2: a second line center into this lineup, or another quality

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Speaker 2: scoring center or something like that into this unit. And

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Speaker 2: and like I think a lot of things, like I

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Speaker 2: still don't love the way kau Kienemi's going to match

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Speaker 2: up in some of the roles he's going to play

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Speaker 2: in the playoffs. So I think they're good enough to

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Speaker 2: win the Cup, but it is definitely a lot down

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Speaker 2: if you're looking at that team and they don't end

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Speaker 2: up getting anything.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a quick look at make or miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: It's the Eastern Conference playoff races. Just I mean last

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Speaker 1: year that the eight teams were set by basically Thanksgiving,

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Speaker 1: So getting a playoff race that it's now you know,

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Speaker 1: you can still say it's sixteen steep if you want

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Speaker 1: to throw Autawa in there for two spots, the last

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Speaker 1: two wild card spots. It's a joy. It's just a

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Speaker 1: real joy to have a playoff race back in the East.

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Speaker 1: The Islanders right now are the top spot, but they

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Speaker 1: have played more than anybody. I don't know how this

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Speaker 1: has happened with their schedule again, but it's been the

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Speaker 1: most compact in the league. They've played sixty three games

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Speaker 1: right now, it's more than anyone else in the league.

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Speaker 1: They have sixty nine points. The Penguins have played fifty

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Speaker 1: nine games, so for fewer and they're two points a

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Speaker 1: drift of the Islanders. The Sabers they've had that they

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Speaker 1: had that snowstorm, so they had a couple of games postponed.

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Speaker 1: They are three points back the Islanders with five in hand.

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Speaker 1: The Red Wings also have five in hand. They're four

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Speaker 1: offsumely five points back. The Panthers two games in hand

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Speaker 1: on the Islanders and two more played than Pittsburgh, and

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Speaker 1: they are three back at Pittsburgh, five back of the Islanders.

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Speaker 1: The Capitals, I mean, if you want to call them

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Speaker 1: still in it, they're five points back of the Islanders,

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Speaker 1: but they traded away a bunch of important players and

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Speaker 1: look like they're trying to do more of that. And

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Speaker 1: then there's the Senators, who are on sixty points from

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Speaker 1: fifty eight games played, so they're nine back of the Islanders,

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Speaker 1: seven back of the Penguins. Right now, the Islanders are

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Speaker 1: still plus one sixty two to make the playoffs. They

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Speaker 1: were three to one a few weeks ago. Then they

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Speaker 1: trade for bo Horvettes are playing better and that's the

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Speaker 1: same price as a Sabers. The Red Wings are longer

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Speaker 1: at plus three fifty. The Senators are fifteen to one

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Speaker 1: to make it, the Panthers plus two forty. The Penguins

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Speaker 1: are minus two fifteen to get in. I think if

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Speaker 1: you like a team to make the playoffs, I almost

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Speaker 1: would just say to back the Penguins to miss more

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Speaker 1: than anything, because they showed some serious flaws. And I

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Speaker 1: still think that this be closer to a coin flip

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Speaker 1: than it is. It's considering their flaws, their goaltending situation,

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Speaker 1: their age profile and like their injury risk, and the

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Speaker 1: fact that their pedigree and their name recognition is being

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Speaker 1: baked way too far into this number. So if you're

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Speaker 1: going to back, you know, Buffalo to make the playoffs

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Speaker 1: at one sixty six. Instead of doing that, I would

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Speaker 1: just take Pittsburgh at that same price.

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Speaker 2: Not to make it so an interesting note with Buffalo

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Speaker 2: because obviously when we're talking about these you want to

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Speaker 2: consider strength of schedule. We know, like I know, some

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Speaker 2: of the teams are going to get scrappy down the stretch,

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Speaker 2: blah blah blah. That happens. But it's funny for how

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Speaker 2: much you hear at the start of the year people

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Speaker 2: talking about say how easy the Devil's had it the

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Speaker 2: first month this year, where someone will do really good

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Speaker 2: and they'll be like, oh, well they've only played this

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Speaker 2: team and that team and a lot of non playoff teams.

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Speaker 2: How little I think when you hear people talk about

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Speaker 2: this playoff chase, you'll hear them mentioned strength of schedule,

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Speaker 2: which is not that hard to look up and very relevant.

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Speaker 2: So that is one thing that concerns me with the

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Speaker 2: Savers that the third hardest schedule remaining based upon winning

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Speaker 2: percentage of teams that they're facing, So that is relevant.

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Speaker 2: That does make it a lot harder. Obviously Autawa's fourth

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Speaker 2: and Detroit's fifth. I think looking at it as of Monday,

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Speaker 2: people would have been surprised, So Ottawa would interest me

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Speaker 2: before Detroit. If I had to chime in with one

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Speaker 2: of Ottawa's out there fifteen to one, it's great. And

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Speaker 2: if you look, if you're someone who believes in models

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Speaker 2: at all, Money Puck has Detroit and Ottawa and this

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Speaker 2: is going to change really quick. When we talk about

320
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Speaker 2: them playing two headhead games in two days. Money Puck

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Speaker 2: has Ottawa three percent lower because of the fact that

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Speaker 2: their underlying process has been a lot stronger. They are

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Speaker 2: four points behind on even games, but that gets covered

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Speaker 2: relatively quick with the difference in their team's underlying results.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's interesting. I actually I'm not huge

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Speaker 2: on Detroit. They've kind of been proving me wrong. But

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Speaker 2: I think that I would like to get that Autawa

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Speaker 2: number in before the Red Wings, and I can see

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Speaker 2: the merit there with the Penguins. Yeah, and I'm on Buffaloes.

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Speaker 2: I'm seeing so many people saying that now is the

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Speaker 2: smash play on that I think the time to bet

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Speaker 2: Buffalo to get into the playoffs is has passed, Like

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Speaker 2: any of this plant bet them, you know, like if

334
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Speaker 2: you're a believer in that, and they to be fair,

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Speaker 2: they've been showing me because they beat Tampa, then they

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Speaker 2: beat Florida the next night. Because I've been preaching the

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Speaker 2: strength of schedule thing. But that's how it's going to

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Speaker 2: be a lot of the rest of here. They're going

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Speaker 2: to have to win a lot of those games versus

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Speaker 2: really strong teams. So if you want to, you know,

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Speaker 2: get some value backing the Sabers down the stretch, just

342
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Speaker 2: bet them to beat Boston when they play them PI twice.

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Speaker 2: Bet them to beat the Devils when they play them twice.

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Speaker 2: Bet them to beat Carolina, that sort of thing. The

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Speaker 2: Rangers live three with them, so there are always gonna

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Speaker 2: be long numbers in those matchups still, and if you

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Speaker 2: think they're going to win those, I think just go

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Speaker 2: out there and bet them to win those games.

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Speaker 1: All right. Yeah, that's really it from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 1: As we head down the deadline again, a reminder, you know,

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on those La Kings. If you think

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Speaker 1: that they're about to trade for a goalie, you should

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Speaker 1: get in on that number before the trade happens and

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Speaker 1: the number shortens. Also, remember to consider that rolling parlay

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Speaker 1: strategy Nick mentioned. And if you liked what you heard

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Speaker 1: from the two of us here on a special NHL

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Speaker 1: edition of the Action Network pod. Reminder that you can

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Speaker 1: listen to Line Change. We preview every Tuesday and Thursday

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Speaker 1: night NHL Slate, and then as we get into the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: it'll be a much more frequent pace than that. That

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Speaker 1: is the Action Network's NHL betting podcast. It's called Line

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Speaker 1: Change with an exclamation point at the end. And for

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Speaker 1: those of you who are wondering why there is a

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Speaker 1: hockey show here, don't worry. Our NFL team will begin

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Speaker 1: its NFL Draft episodes on the Action Network podcast starting

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Speaker 1: next week. So if you're into that sort of thing

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Speaker 1: already in March, which I guess some people are, more

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Speaker 1: power to you, and you'll be hearing much more of

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Speaker 1: that on this channel starting next week. But until then,

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Speaker 1: thank you to FanDuel for sponsoring the Action Network podcast

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Speaker 1: for Nick Martin and Michael Lileebuff. Be sure to check

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Speaker 1: out Line Change.

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Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

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