Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm deg Krisner. Tuesday
Speaker 2: marks the end of the second quarter, and it's likely
Speaker 2: to be the best quarter for US equities in six years.
Speaker 2: So far, the S and P five hundred is up
Speaker 2: nearly fourteen percent in Q two. Sound impressive. Consider this
Speaker 2: In that same period, South Korea's cospy is up more
Speaker 2: than sixty four percent in the local currency.
Speaker 1: So we have a.
Speaker 2: Holiday shortened week in the States. Markets will be closed
Speaker 2: Friday to mark Independence Day. We will get monthly jobs
Speaker 2: data that will be released on Thursday. For a closer
Speaker 2: look at some of the price action, let's bring in
Speaker 2: Bloomberg strategist David Finnerty. David joins from our studios in Singapore.
Speaker 2: Thank you for being here. Can we start in the
Speaker 2: foreign exchange, which is kind of your specialty. The en
Speaker 2: right now flirting with a forty year low against the Greenbeck,
Speaker 2: you'll be betting on intervention right now. I'm looking at
Speaker 2: one sixty two against the dollar.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's about one sixty two twenty three the last
Speaker 3: I saw, so both the one sixty two level. Yeah
Speaker 3: for me, he won sixty two to one sixty three
Speaker 3: area I think is intervention territory for MF.
Speaker 1: I mean's got a bit of a problem here.
Speaker 3: One is that it knows last time it did intervene
Speaker 3: or legitdly intervened, it didn't last very long at all
Speaker 3: when downe one fifty five and bounce back. The second
Speaker 3: thing is you have Kevin Walsh speaking tomorrow, you have
Speaker 3: US payrolls to day after. If war sounds hawks or
Speaker 3: payrolls comes in strong or both of those obviously dollars supportive.
Speaker 3: So if you intervene now, you're going, well, he may
Speaker 3: be a fighting a rising tide of dollar strength.
Speaker 1: So I think they'd like to intervene now.
Speaker 3: I think they're well aware of these headwinds that could
Speaker 3: or taw winds for dollar that could materialize. But cet
Speaker 3: I think one sixty two, one sixty three were definitely
Speaker 3: in a where they may intervene again.
Speaker 2: So it's not necessarily if we did get some sort
Speaker 2: of intervention that the psychology of the market changes. It's
Speaker 2: basically you're triggering a short squeeze right pretty much.
Speaker 3: I think that as far as the market's concerned, this
Speaker 3: is a dollar yen story higher it's position. For that,
Speaker 3: I think anything any intervention would be just see as
Speaker 3: opportunity to buy the dip. If I'm on a surn
Speaker 3: anything around one fifty five, I think they if it
Speaker 3: even got that low, even one fifty seven, I think
Speaker 3: people propably to start by this up again because I
Speaker 3: think from the market's perspective to go, look.
Speaker 1: The underlying scenario hasn't changed the tool.
Speaker 3: And we know from recently that when you did intervene,
Speaker 3: it lasted, it lasted very short the dip.
Speaker 1: So therefore, in Bolden's trying.
Speaker 3: To say, okay, it's by the dip again, nothing's really changed.
Speaker 3: Bojay's hiking gradually hawkish. If Warshaw Payrolls comes in, you know,
Speaker 3: hawkish slash strong for payrolls. But I think they'll say, look, okay,
Speaker 3: the dollar side of equation is still very strong. We're
Speaker 3: still worried about fiscal spending in Japan. So they're going
Speaker 3: to go, look, nothing's changed, so why should I short it.
Speaker 3: You're only going to short dotti in if you think
Speaker 3: mf's coming into v which obviously they may. But once
Speaker 3: they've done that, I think it turned around very quickly
Speaker 3: and say look I think now just to buy it.
Speaker 2: So you mentioned FED shir Kevin worsh there making his
Speaker 2: debut public appearance outside the US this week at the
Speaker 2: ECB symposium in Central Portugal. At that last FED meeting,
Speaker 2: he sounded maybe a little more hawkish than the market
Speaker 2: was expecting. Do you think that tone is going to
Speaker 2: remain in place? If he addresses kind of monetary policy.
Speaker 1: It's certainly gonna.
Speaker 3: Be interesting because since that last FED meeting, obviously oil
Speaker 3: prices have come off and they come up quite considerably,
Speaker 3: So it is going to be interesting to see if
Speaker 3: he maintains that stance or if he slightly eases it.
Speaker 3: Obviously you can have still second amount effects from higher
Speaker 3: oil prices. So I don't think about the woods, but
Speaker 3: I think the market. Remember, the market when he was
Speaker 3: appointed was assuming, oh, you know, he's going to come
Speaker 3: in and do cuts what President Trump wants.
Speaker 1: Obviously that since.
Speaker 3: Change, but it will be interesting now he's got another
Speaker 3: chance quite soon after last FED meeting, so has changed
Speaker 3: with oil that if he wants to not duvish stance
Speaker 3: but more of a neutral stance, should we say he
Speaker 3: could do it now? And so I think the market's
Speaker 3: definitely wary of you. What does he say? But again
Speaker 3: very quickly, the iron is it's followed the following day
Speaker 3: by payroll. So even if he was say more neutral,
Speaker 3: I think obviously US shields and donald would come off.
Speaker 3: But then again, if you get a strong payroll data
Speaker 3: the day after, they go, well, we do need to hike.
Speaker 3: So just the timing of both these events it's very interesting.
Speaker 3: But again I think he does have a chance if
Speaker 3: he wishes to to go more neutral, giving the oil
Speaker 3: has come off. If he's still hawkish, then the market
Speaker 3: will go Okay. He's definitely got a hawkish stance.
Speaker 2: So let's pick up on that fact that oil has
Speaker 2: come off the highs after the onset of the war
Speaker 2: in Iran. Obviously the US has been in did we
Speaker 2: know what WTI has been doing? But I'm thinking about
Speaker 2: economies in Asia, I'm thinking about Japan, I'm thinking about
Speaker 2: South Korea. Are those central banks in somewhat a different
Speaker 2: position than the FED finds itself in.
Speaker 1: I think certainly.
Speaker 3: Look some of them have the you know, Bank of
Speaker 3: Japan's raise rates in Philippine and Indonesia phrase rates, so
Speaker 3: they have raised race. I think now the question is
Speaker 3: how much more would they need to raise rates. I
Speaker 3: think it varies from central bank to central bank. I
Speaker 3: think if you look at Indonesia, the classic case they
Speaker 3: is they were really doing it to support the currency,
Speaker 3: and they were very honest about that. They've intermed in
Speaker 3: the fix markets. They did an off cycle rate hike
Speaker 3: to support the currency. So you know, if this dollar
Speaker 3: strength continues, then I think they may go, look, we
Speaker 3: just have to hike to support the currency. I think
Speaker 3: other currencies maybe a bit more like who were looking
Speaker 3: at inflation? We have MS Ministry Authority of Seeingapore next
Speaker 3: month with their quarterly meeting. The most recent inflation data
Speaker 3: when they look at coursep is really what they focus on,
Speaker 3: came in sort of bit below estimates, so signally nonall worries.
Speaker 3: So there was some expectations and this she got head
Speaker 3: of that data that they may titan. They may be
Speaker 3: a central bank says, actually, you inflation not too bad,
Speaker 3: We'll just stay and hold. So what I'm trying to
Speaker 3: say is it really varies from central bank to central
Speaker 3: bank in terms of how high's inflation. There are certain
Speaker 3: central banks are more worried about the currency being under pressure.
Speaker 3: So there's no set one rule covers all.
Speaker 2: Say what about the degree of leverage given the raid environment?
Speaker 2: Right now? When you look at the figure one point
Speaker 2: four trillion US, I think that has been levered into
Speaker 2: the equity trade. Doesn't that sound a little alarming?
Speaker 3: Well, I think that we're always worried about equity trades
Speaker 3: because it's a one way train until it's not a
Speaker 3: one way training. And every market, of course, has a
Speaker 3: history of correction. I'm not saying it's not to be
Speaker 3: a big correction, but you know there's a pullback. I
Speaker 3: mean it's it's quite standard. It's never just by bye bye,
Speaker 3: But you know, the general equity trade sort of has
Speaker 3: been that, and I think any dip has been a
Speaker 3: sign of just buy into it. I mean, I think
Speaker 3: for this equity trade to change, you need something really
Speaker 3: really fundamental to change on the growth outlook. And then
Speaker 3: if you go back to the COVID days, I mean
Speaker 3: obviously that was a fundamental change. Do just worries about
Speaker 3: the growth global growth? About question? And I think at
Speaker 3: the moment you're seeing, well, you know, everything's going well. Yes,
Speaker 3: in certain areas like the AI, is that overheating a
Speaker 3: bit or has it got a bit of it ahead
Speaker 3: of itself. That's obviously an ongoing debate, particularly the money
Speaker 3: expenditure on data centres, et cetera.
Speaker 1: It's getting higher and high and higher.
Speaker 3: But traders will say, look at the end of the day,
Speaker 3: trenders your friend, and I think there's a lot of
Speaker 3: fomo at the moment as well. So you know, at
Speaker 3: the moment, I think people look and let's I see
Speaker 3: a fundamental reason to change my stance, which at the moment,
Speaker 3: no one's really seen that You're going.
Speaker 1: I think, just it's higher.
Speaker 2: Over the weekend, we had the assessment from the Bank
Speaker 2: of International Settlements, its annual report was published, I believe
Speaker 2: on Sunday, and the BIS was talking about an AI bust,
Speaker 2: higher inflation, also a thread and fiscal stress. When I
Speaker 2: consider those different elements, it seems like maybe in inflation
Speaker 2: surprise something that remains maybe beyond sticky. Maybe that we
Speaker 2: see some type of move higher in inflation and it
Speaker 2: is not necessarily driven by the oil trade. Could that
Speaker 2: shock markets?
Speaker 3: I think it could, But I think that debate, the
Speaker 3: AI debate spur inflation has been discussed and has been discussed,
Speaker 3: so I mean, I think it's something the markets are
Speaker 3: aware of. I do think at the moment though, the
Speaker 3: market's like, look, hey, if the glass is half empty
Speaker 3: or half full, it's definitely half full. And therefore were
Speaker 3: upwards and you know, not saying to infinity and beyond,
Speaker 3: but certainly upwards in the near term. So they are
Speaker 3: wary of those potentials. But it's not enough at the
Speaker 3: moment to derail the general trend that's going on. I said,
Speaker 3: I think they need something a lot more fundamental then,
Speaker 3: because we've had let's be honest, we've had elevated inflation
Speaker 3: for certainly in the US or UK or whatever country
Speaker 3: you will look at for a few years now.
Speaker 1: So that hasn't derailed this market.
Speaker 3: So you go, well, if it just stays elevated, you
Speaker 3: go okay. I mean, yes, the Fed may hike more,
Speaker 3: such ways may hike more, but again those already been
Speaker 3: factored in. So unless there's suddenly a very very aggressive
Speaker 3: hiking cite tal, that's not being factored in. I don't
Speaker 3: see anything fundamentally change at the moment. But the market's
Speaker 3: has taken all relative in its stride at the moment,
Speaker 3: so you need something very very different from what's being
Speaker 3: perceived at the moment to really really shock the market.
Speaker 3: And I said, look, I'm not saying there won't be
Speaker 3: any pullbacks. I think that would be not correct to
Speaker 3: think there'll be some pullback. But again, reality is at
Speaker 3: the moment the market goes, that's just an opportunity to
Speaker 3: buy certain in.
Speaker 2: Equities, certainly for a while. I mean that exagen a
Speaker 2: shock was provided by geopolitics, right and that may have
Speaker 2: caught the market a little flat footed at the end
Speaker 2: of February when we had the US and Israel attacking Iran.
Speaker 2: That seems to be completely discounted right now. We seem
Speaker 2: to be moving in a direction where things are much
Speaker 2: more relaxed. Now we're working towards some type of peace deal.
Speaker 2: The market doesn't seem to be as concerned about that
Speaker 2: situation right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't.
Speaker 3: And I think if you look at the moves that
Speaker 3: you had when the war started, and let's compare that
Speaker 3: to the TRUP liberation day back last year, which seems
Speaker 3: a long time ago now, But like Liberation Day, you
Speaker 3: did see some moves about question following that shock. You know,
Speaker 3: it was a lot bigger when the Talis we announced
Speaker 3: than was expected. The war you sort of saw the
Speaker 3: build up going started because obviously the US naval forces
Speaker 3: were moving into the regions, so we were aware that
Speaker 3: something could happen. Obviously it's gone longer than maybe President
Speaker 3: Trumble or the market so he wants. But again, the market,
Speaker 3: the reality is, the markets got used to it. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's the market adjusts and it gets worried and it goes, Actually,
Speaker 3: you know, it's not as bad.
Speaker 1: It's what I thought it was.
Speaker 3: Oil went up to you know, nearly one hundred and twenty,
Speaker 3: and s Mark's like, oh, we got past that. So
Speaker 3: the market has this little panic attacks and then it
Speaker 3: goes it's actually not as bad as I thought.
Speaker 1: We can keep trying it a.
Speaker 3: Long and certainly now with oil coming off, and look
Speaker 3: with ongoing talks and the tip for tat on the
Speaker 3: strikes between US and Iran and realities, do you honestly
Speaker 3: expect a deal to be done in sixty days? I
Speaker 3: would say no, because history is said that it's very
Speaker 3: much like it will be done. It can can be
Speaker 3: kicked down the road several times, but I think the
Speaker 3: market goes kick it down the road as long as
Speaker 3: it doesn't fundamentally change the economics of global growth and everything.
Speaker 1: Then you know what, We're fine with it. So that's
Speaker 1: what I would say.
Speaker 2: You, all right, listen, I know you're getting ready to
Speaker 2: take some time off. I hope it's a full time,
Speaker 2: RESTful holiday. Bloomberg strategist David finerdid, joining from Singapore here
Speaker 2: on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak
Speaker 2: Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. The official PMI data for
Speaker 2: China shows factory activity improved in June by more than expected.
Speaker 2: The story is of booming exports offsetting slower growth in
Speaker 2: the domestic economy. Now, the official manufacturing PMI came in
Speaker 2: at a reading of fifty point three. Meantime, the non
Speaker 2: manufacturing PMI measuring activity and construction and services came in
Speaker 2: at a reading of fifty point two. And we got
Speaker 2: reaction from Helen Chow. Helen is the chief economist for
Speaker 2: Greater China at Bank of America Global Research, and she
Speaker 2: spoke with Bloomberg TV host ivon Men and April Hong.
Speaker 4: So it seems like things are improving marginally. But what
Speaker 4: is your takeover all the numbers so far?
Speaker 5: Well, I think generally this is good.
Speaker 6: We're talking about the manufacturing sector, you know, doing a
Speaker 6: little bit better even in a sequential basis. But at
Speaker 6: the same time, I think the non manufacturing side, the
Speaker 6: service side, is also holding up pretty well, so that
Speaker 6: I think at LESA like basically LESA a relatively constructive
Speaker 6: picture for June, and especially at the time when we're
Speaker 6: about to look at at least a second quarter and
Speaker 6: think about whether the policymakers are about to do something.
Speaker 4: So thinks I mean, is it soft enough do you
Speaker 4: think for them to do anything well?
Speaker 6: To be honest, the PMI doesn't really tell the story.
Speaker 6: We have to wait until two weeks later when we
Speaker 6: look at the third quarter data together with the June
Speaker 6: activity growth indicators. At the moment, I think PMI tells
Speaker 6: us that on the supply side things are okay, But
Speaker 6: we already know that. Think about exports, think about IP
Speaker 6: they have been pretty resilient for some time. So the
Speaker 6: question is really on the demand side, consumption and investment,
Speaker 6: as ever just said, and.
Speaker 4: So what are we tracking here in terms of this
Speaker 4: case shaped, I mean, it seems like out of all
Speaker 4: the economy that we talk about, you're seeing it much
Speaker 4: more wider. This k of an economy. Is the macro
Speaker 4: story that we're seeing, you know around Asia? Is it
Speaker 4: really only about AI and semis? How do you look
Speaker 4: at the non sort of tech sector.
Speaker 6: Well, it's probably different from the market. I think the
Speaker 6: market only cares about the A and the related parapheral sectors.
Speaker 6: But actually for em Asia we're looking at basically growth diverging.
Speaker 5: So the front runners.
Speaker 6: Are the text exports exporters such as Taiwan and also Korea,
Speaker 6: a little bit of Japan and China as well. But
Speaker 6: at the same time we also have the other sectors,
Speaker 6: the other countries, for example those in Southeast Asia and
Speaker 6: in South Asia that struggle a little bit because they
Speaker 6: are more domestic demand oriented and they also you know,
Speaker 6: relies more on imports of energy.
Speaker 5: And now with.
Speaker 6: Oil prices still relatively elevated, hopefully in the near future
Speaker 6: is coming down a little bit further, they are seeing
Speaker 6: more struggle in terms of the growth pressure at the
Speaker 6: time when inflation is about to edge.
Speaker 7: Up on oil. I mean, what was interesting was how
Speaker 7: it came out that the oil demand, the imports for
Speaker 7: China was not as high as some maybe had expected
Speaker 7: amid the war. What is your sense of what is transient.
Speaker 7: What is structural in these energy shifts within China.
Speaker 6: Well, I think the oil prices staying at elevated levels
Speaker 6: are presenting some growth challenges not only to China but
Speaker 6: also the rest of the Asia in general. But for China,
Speaker 6: I think it is better prepared because of the following reasons.
Speaker 6: Number one, it has a large strategic reserve so that
Speaker 6: they can draw upon when things are getting hard. And two,
Speaker 6: they also have more diversifieds origins or sources of energy
Speaker 6: and therefore they are less impacted by GCC country issues
Speaker 6: and the transportation through the straight up hormos. But number
Speaker 6: three I think also very importantly, China has developed a
Speaker 6: lot of renewable energies in the recent past, so you know,
Speaker 6: I would say that is contributing a lot to the
Speaker 6: more diversified energy demand that China currently has. So we
Speaker 6: are about to see that when oil prices come down,
Speaker 6: it will help China, you know, get inflation a little
Speaker 6: bit lower, especially coming from the energy part. We need
Speaker 6: the good inflation, not the energy inflation, right. But at
Speaker 6: the same time, you know, in addition to that terms
Speaker 6: of trade gain, we're also seeing that China could potentially
Speaker 6: you know, see a little.
Speaker 5: Bit of upside for corporate and.
Speaker 6: Also for household when the energy prices are lower, so
Speaker 6: that demand can recover better.
Speaker 5: What do you.
Speaker 7: Think needs to happen for that to be that good? Inflation?
Speaker 7: How are you assessing so far their drive to rebalance
Speaker 7: the economy drive domestic demand?
Speaker 6: The key is to see the gap between supply and demand.
Speaker 6: At the moment, supply is relatively resilient, as we just mentioned,
Speaker 6: and that's particularly supported by external demand rather than the
Speaker 6: MESSA demand. But if we can get the MESSA demand back,
Speaker 6: especially on the investment side, because it's faster investment that
Speaker 6: has a higher volatility compared to consumption.
Speaker 5: So our hope is.
Speaker 6: That we can see a little bit better fixed As
Speaker 6: at investment, we still hold the view that for the
Speaker 6: full year fixeds that investment growth can be as high
Speaker 6: as two percent in average, And.
Speaker 4: In terms of your growth forecast you still think four
Speaker 4: and a half percent for this year.
Speaker 5: It's really going to be driven by exports. You still think.
Speaker 6: Mostly we were holding very high hopes for rebalancing, but
Speaker 6: that hope has dashed and we're now saying that it's
Speaker 6: mostly driven by exports, and the export growth this year
Speaker 6: can be as high as fifteen percent phenomenal.
Speaker 4: Term, when can we hear I mean you're saying, obviously
Speaker 4: with the supply side still looking struct exports look construct
Speaker 4: that it could actually delay this whole next round of
Speaker 4: stimulus from the government. Is a pull up your meeting
Speaker 4: in July going to be a good catalyst or at
Speaker 4: least an opportunity to look at measures there or do
Speaker 4: we have to wait a few months, as you say,
Speaker 4: maybe more data sets?
Speaker 5: Good question.
Speaker 6: I think the key depends on what the numbers we're
Speaker 6: going to see in two weeks. First, So if by
Speaker 6: June mid mid July we're looking at the June numbers
Speaker 6: with a substantial contraction of fixcess and investment growth continuously
Speaker 6: into June, and with retail sales numbers still in negative
Speaker 6: territory in yar on year growth terms, I think that
Speaker 6: probably will prompt the policy makers do a quite a
Speaker 6: bit more. And are we going to see the second
Speaker 6: quarter data surprising on the downside to below four point five?
Speaker 5: Probably not. I think we still have.
Speaker 6: That, you know, at this level, and therefore, are they
Speaker 6: going to actually pull out some big cannons and you know,
Speaker 6: really use a lot of ammunition in the near term.
Speaker 6: I actually am skeptical because at the moment we are
Speaker 6: still you know, basically going into the second quarter against
Speaker 6: the first quarter five point zero against last year five
Speaker 6: point zero, and what.
Speaker 5: Is the urgency.
Speaker 6: I think that they need to see a significant you know,
Speaker 6: deceleration before they actually pull out the big guns.
Speaker 7: So does that mean for monetary policy you don't see
Speaker 7: that much in the way of easing potentially as well,
Speaker 7: is there a need for that?
Speaker 6: I certainly think that there is a need for that.
Speaker 6: I do believe that, you know, more policy easing is needed,
Speaker 6: including both on the monitoring terms as well as a
Speaker 6: fiscal But we're not placing very high hopes of an
Speaker 6: immediate policy change just because that we think policy makers
Speaker 6: you know, will take time to assess how bad the
Speaker 6: deceleration will be and how much of support the mesode
Speaker 6: demand will need, and therefore we're not expecting an interestry
Speaker 6: cut in the very near future. But that said, we
Speaker 6: certainly think that going into the second half, the risks
Speaker 6: are that exports decelerates, you know a little bit further,
Speaker 6: and if that is the case, then policy makers in
Speaker 6: China will clearly see more urgency in terms of rolling
Speaker 6: out more policy easing, stepping ups.
Speaker 4: This whole overnight reverse repob and there's so much questions
Speaker 4: about them, why didn't they disclose the rate? They unveil
Speaker 4: this new tool, But then, you know, what can we
Speaker 4: read from that here? Are they really shifting more to
Speaker 4: the short end of of you know, interest rates and
Speaker 4: whatnot and make it more aligned with central banks around
Speaker 4: the world, or do you think?
Speaker 5: I don't know what do we glean from that?
Speaker 6: To be honest, we don't know what the message is
Speaker 6: because in the first place, policy makers are trying to
Speaker 6: emphasize the point that they still want the seven day
Speaker 6: repel rates as the key policy rate. So you know,
Speaker 6: if they do something to the overnight but not to
Speaker 6: seven day, is this the emphasis of the most important
Speaker 6: policy rate. We don't know, So that could be one concern.
Speaker 6: But secondly, we think that, you know, whatever has been
Speaker 6: done or not been done, the message seems to be
Speaker 6: suggesting that, you know, if there is some adjustment it wants,
Speaker 6: they wanted to be done in a very low profile fashion,
Speaker 6: which means we probably won't necessarily see a high profile
Speaker 6: seven day reverse you know, report rate adjustment followed by
Speaker 6: an LPR adjustment. If that's the case, then you know,
Speaker 6: the signaling impact will be limited and the impact on
Speaker 6: the household and also corporate balance sheet will be limited.
Speaker 6: So we're not necessarily sure you know what the message
Speaker 6: they're trying to put out there, because in modern central
Speaker 6: banking signaling is a very important too that they should grasp.
Speaker 7: Helen, why did I ask you as well, what do
Speaker 7: you think of the biggest risk maybe for the Chinese
Speaker 7: ecconomy in the back half of the because their trade
Speaker 7: frictions seem to be brewing China between the EU and
Speaker 7: then with Japan as well.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 6: I think trade environment wise, we are seeing, you know,
Speaker 6: in certain places, for example you as China, the environment
Speaker 6: is getting a little bit better, not the least because
Speaker 6: of the top leadership meetings anchoring the thing. You know,
Speaker 6: I would say in the very near future to mention
Speaker 6: that there are three more Trump Sea meetings waiting before
Speaker 6: the end of the year.
Speaker 5: So we think that US China is probably doing okay.
Speaker 6: But at the same time, on the other hand, we
Speaker 6: are seeing for example, China, EU, China and Japan having
Speaker 6: a little bit more turmoil in the in the trade front,
Speaker 6: and we are seeing that potentially China is see going
Speaker 6: to see more, you know, challenges in terms of seeing
Speaker 6: the higher tariffs or trade barriers, so that they probably
Speaker 6: would see some downward pressure on external demand coming from
Speaker 6: those areas. But at this point I don't necessarily think
Speaker 6: that China is trying to close up or are trying
Speaker 6: to build the fence as tall as you know their
Speaker 6: trading partners in response as a retaliation, mainly because that
Speaker 6: China depends on exports and China wants to keep the
Speaker 6: image of being the most open.
Speaker 2: That was Helen Choos, chief economist for Greater China at
Speaker 2: Bank of America Global Research, speaking with Bloomberg TV host
Speaker 2: Von Mann and April Han, bringing you their conversation here
Speaker 2: on the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to today's
Speaker 2: episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday,
Speaker 2: we look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics
Speaker 2: in the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
Speaker 2: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
Speaker 2: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner,
Speaker 2: and this is Bloomberg.