1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All Right, one of 7 00:00:22,200 --> 00:00:25,239 Speaker 1: the big big stories on the Bloomberg terminal today, Amazon 8 00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 1: discloses a steak in e v maker Rivian. Ed Ludlow 9 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:35,040 Speaker 1: joins us from uh San Francisco. Ed, big story here, 10 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:38,599 Speaker 1: big names. What's Amazon doing? Yeah, it's interesting because we've 11 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: reported the influence that Amazon had over this company already. 12 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 1: You know, just for the audience. This is a company 13 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: that's made very few vehicles on talking tens of units 14 00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:52,080 Speaker 1: of battery electric pickups, but is really closely followed because 15 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 1: Amazon is also a customer of Rivian. They've ordered a 16 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: hundred thousand delivery vans. You know, we we've known that 17 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: they've made private investments along the way in this company. 18 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 1: But stake in a company that's about I P O 19 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: is is important right as part of market functioning. UM. 20 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 1: But it's just you know it frankly adds evidence to 21 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,040 Speaker 1: the piece we put out last month that this is 22 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 1: a company under immense pressure because it's biggest customer is 23 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:19,679 Speaker 1: also one of its biggest shareholders, and it's kind of 24 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 1: pulling the strings of what Rivian is trying to do. 25 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: Why would Amazon not just out right by this company. 26 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,679 Speaker 1: It's a great question because Amazon has taken that approach 27 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:31,399 Speaker 1: in the past. If you think about its efforts in 28 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,319 Speaker 1: autonomous driving, it bought Zooks. Now, the context there was 29 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 1: that Zooks was struggling, it was desperate to raise money, um, 30 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:42,400 Speaker 1: and you know it was basically shopping itself around. UM. 31 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,959 Speaker 1: So it has taken that approach in the past. But 32 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: you know, Rivian is run by this guy R. J. Scaringe, 33 00:01:47,840 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 1: a PhD holder from m I T. He has big 34 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: dreams and visions for electric vehicles. You know, they are 35 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: already making their own vehicles for consumers right a battery 36 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,040 Speaker 1: electric pick up. They're already coming off the assembly and 37 00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: limited deliveries. And you know, this is a story about 38 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: a founder and a guy who's built a company really quickly. 39 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 1: But in order to get to this stage, he's had 40 00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 1: to make compromises, and the Amazon stake of seems to 41 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: be the biggest compromise of all. Do we know, you know, 42 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,399 Speaker 1: it's interesting here. Amazon's invested more than one point three 43 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: billion dollars in this automaker. They have about a hundred 44 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,640 Speaker 1: and fifty million shares of preferred stock, but the voting 45 00:02:26,680 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: do we know what their voting power is here? Because 46 00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 1: it just feels like, as you suggested in your reporting, 47 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 1: that they're really in control here. This is what's kind 48 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 1: of fun about the story that when Rivian filed its 49 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 1: S one, remember the S one's in right and it's public, 50 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: they said Ford has a stake of more than five 51 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 1: percent in Rivian. They said t ro Price has a 52 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: stake of more than five percent in Rivian. You know, 53 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,760 Speaker 1: these big names or x UM. Other investors include Fidelity, 54 00:02:49,800 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: black Rock. But the Amazon stake was redacted very high up, 55 00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: you know, And so now we know that the ownership 56 00:02:57,760 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 1: interest is um you know, and you'd assume that the 57 00:03:01,520 --> 00:03:05,480 Speaker 1: voting rights are proportionate based on the volume of preferred 58 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: stock that's been issued. Amazon has about a hundred and 59 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 1: fifty million shares of preferred stock. So well, I don't 60 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:13,800 Speaker 1: have to tell you this because you have the privilege 61 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 1: of covering them all for us here at Bloomberg. But 62 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,880 Speaker 1: there's a lot of players in the e V space. 63 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: It's a market that's getting very, very crowded, and and 64 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: there's kind of this narrative out there that they're not 65 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: all going to make it. Does an investment from Amazon 66 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 1: make Rivian one of the ones that's going to have 67 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: that sticking power? Yeah, I mean according to sources, as 68 00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: we've reported, you know, the valuation of eighty billion dollars 69 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: that Rivian is seeking in its i p O is 70 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: based largely on the fact that Amazon is an investor 71 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: and a customer. You know, you saw the influence of 72 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: the hurt steal with Tesla this past week. For example, 73 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: the infancy of EVS was about selling to consumers gaining 74 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:55,840 Speaker 1: traction EVY adoption. But now you're seeing corporates come in 75 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: and decide about their policy with regards to carbon reduction, 76 00:03:59,520 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: and you can see the power of a big corporate 77 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: placing a mass order. So Rivian kind of hit that 78 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: sweet spot, right. It has three products to consumer ones 79 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: and then the Amazon Van. The Amazon van gives it 80 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: guaranteed revenue. It's a contract for a hundred thousand vans. 81 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: We know that, we know what the deadline is and 82 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 1: they're on track to meet it. And as we reported, 83 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: according to sources, there's some great perks in the deal, 84 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,160 Speaker 1: like they get recurring software revenues. Amazon pays them basically 85 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:25,839 Speaker 1: for over the air updates for the duration of the contract. 86 00:04:25,880 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 1: It's a great thing to have. But as we've also reported, 87 00:04:29,320 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 1: Rivian have had to make some sacrifices and put those 88 00:04:31,440 --> 00:04:34,520 Speaker 1: consumer products on the back burner because if Jeff Bezos 89 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 1: is one of your biggest shareholders, right and he is 90 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,279 Speaker 1: expectations because he tweeted after we published the story saying, 91 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: Hey r J, where's my vans? Um? You know, you 92 00:04:43,400 --> 00:04:46,520 Speaker 1: can imagine the pressure on that company's management team to deliver. 93 00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: Just lastly, and what do we know about the product 94 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: that the van itself? Yeah, so the van can do 95 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: up to a hundred and fifty miles in a single charge. 96 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 1: It's very much a product for last mile delivery. Amazon 97 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: already buys delivery and right from Mercedes, from Ram, from 98 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 1: Ford um it's going to be a direct competitor to 99 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 1: Ford's e transit van, which is interesting given Forward is 100 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: an investor in rivian Um and you know it's it's 101 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 1: I'm hearing it's having some supply chain issues because it's 102 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 1: a bulky products. You need a lot of metal, you 103 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: need a lot of semiconductors. But you know, it's a 104 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: simple design and it shares common battery and motor architecture 105 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:25,719 Speaker 1: with the consumer products. That's how Rivian's been able to 106 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,679 Speaker 1: put it off. That's kind of the key. The underlying 107 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: technology is the same across all three products. Alright, thank 108 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 1: you so much for bringing this story here. In this 109 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:40,039 Speaker 1: reporting again, Amazon discloses steak and EV maker Rivian, So 110 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: a big, big validation I guess, if you will, of 111 00:05:42,839 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 1: the company's technology. Edlar Low, technology reporter for US at 112 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:53,359 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. He is based in San Francisco. All Right, 113 00:05:53,400 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: everybody's got their strategies for managing this market. Again. Equity 114 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,440 Speaker 1: markets at or near all time highs. Interest rates uh, 115 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 1: very much muted, but the tenure at one point five 116 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 1: seven percent. Our next guest focuses on the three bees. 117 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,719 Speaker 1: We're gonna get the latest on that. John Augustine, chief 118 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 1: investment officer for Huntington Private Bank Joints, is on the 119 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: home on the phone from Columbus, Ohio, where the Penn 120 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 1: State Knitney Lions are coming in this weekend to fight 121 00:06:20,960 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: the Ohio State University. John, thanks so much for joining us. 122 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 1: Talk to us about the three bees. How are they 123 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: kind of guiding your investment outlook? Sir Paul, good morning, 124 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 1: and it is gonna be a good game in Columbus 125 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: this weekend. So the three be so number one, we 126 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: want to be bond light. Real yields are still too 127 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: negative for us in the bond world. We don't see recession, 128 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:49,359 Speaker 1: so to us, the sixty portfolio should be more of 129 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 1: a se So that's number one. Number two with respect 130 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,839 Speaker 1: to the stock market, we've been here at a lot 131 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: of rotate the value this summer and early now into 132 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,240 Speaker 1: the fall. But our our equity team has stayed with growth. 133 00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: They've barbelled between growth and value, and that's worked for us, 134 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,920 Speaker 1: that's worked for our customers. They've got good returns here 135 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: in October. So that's the second be barbell and stocks. 136 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: The third be is just broadened. And what would mean 137 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: by broaden is include some commodities, include some real estate 138 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: with your stocks and bonds. So make sure you're broad 139 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:31,360 Speaker 1: in your conducts next year. Is going to be more 140 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: of an interest rate driven year, which could bring up volatility. 141 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:36,960 Speaker 1: So we just want to make sure we're broad and 142 00:07:37,000 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: our conduct for our clients. So those are three bees. 143 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:41,640 Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's talk about a few of your 144 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 1: specific holdings, because I see within your top equity holdings 145 00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 1: for a few of your strategies are Apple and Amazon, 146 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: and those two companies you know didn't do so well 147 00:07:50,280 --> 00:07:52,520 Speaker 1: when they reported after the bell yesterday. Are you a 148 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:56,160 Speaker 1: buyer of the dip here? Not yet, we have to 149 00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:58,160 Speaker 1: see how it forms. So they're both that a little 150 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: over three percent today. Now. One interesting thing though for 151 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: our for our equity team, what we put on them 152 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:09,440 Speaker 1: is a five percent limit on positions. The reason we 153 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: do that is a lot of our institutional customers have 154 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 1: a five percent limit or feeling on individual positions, so 155 00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 1: that in many cases makes us fang light portfolios. So 156 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 1: as an example, Amazon's a little bit about six percent. 157 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 1: Excuse me, Microsoft and Apple reach six percent of the 158 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 1: S and P five, so that puts us at one 159 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: good point there, but Microsoft having a better month. So 160 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:40,760 Speaker 1: we are in all those stocks you have to be, 161 00:08:41,280 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: but we do limit positions. So it's interesting you're just 162 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: love to get your thoughts here. Were more than halfway 163 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 1: through earnings, uh this cycle? What's your takeaway? Forward estimates 164 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: are not going down? So so current quarters up? You know, 165 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 1: the coming into the quarter it was plus percent estimate. 166 00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 1: Actual today looks like plus thirty six with a little 167 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,959 Speaker 1: over half reporting after the company in the SMP five. 168 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 1: What surprises us, though, Paul, is we haven't seen forward 169 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 1: estimates go down as much as current quarter estimates are 170 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: going up. That's unusual to us. That's a healthy sign. 171 00:09:25,120 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's talk about the signs we're getting 172 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: from the bond market. I know you said seventy and 173 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:32,960 Speaker 1: more appropriate portfolio allocation. But when you think about prior 174 00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:35,520 Speaker 1: to today, as of yesterday's close, an equity market and 175 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:37,319 Speaker 1: an all time high, and you had a yield curve 176 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 1: that is telling you that there's some serious fear out 177 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 1: there about economic growth. How do you kind of square 178 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 1: those things? Well, what's really interesting to us, Keyley, is 179 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: the two year and ten year moves over the past, 180 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: you know, just so far this month in Europe in 181 00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: the US, because they're completely opposite. In the US, it's 182 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: the two year that's moving up. That signals to US 183 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 1: a more hawkish fe it in Europe. It's the ten 184 00:10:02,520 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 1: uere that's moving up. That sink signals to us our 185 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:10,600 Speaker 1: fixed income team a more lenient ECB that wants growth 186 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 1: and it's not going to inhibit. So there's a big 187 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:19,440 Speaker 1: difference between two and ten years yields US Europe, and 188 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 1: the Fed is going to have to thread that needle 189 00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: next week. They don't want an inverted yield curve. They've 190 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:29,200 Speaker 1: already kind of done it thirties to twenty. We don't 191 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,840 Speaker 1: think they're gonna want to invert the yeld curve anymore. 192 00:10:32,400 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: So they've got to thread that needle on tapering and 193 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: potential rate increases at their statement press conference next Wednesday, 194 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: John what's the give us a name or two that 195 00:10:42,600 --> 00:10:46,439 Speaker 1: you've recently edited to your profoilio and why Well, the 196 00:10:46,840 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: equity team has come into again under the Barbell theme. 197 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,439 Speaker 1: So what they're looking at more now is coming in, 198 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 1: for instance, UM with a Parker Hannason, but the bringing 199 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: in Johnson and Johnson, so cyclical name, growth name coming 200 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,560 Speaker 1: in with Caterpillar, but then bringing in Crown Castle into 201 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:09,520 Speaker 1: some of the portfolios which we own and all three 202 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:12,920 Speaker 1: of our equity portfolios, so they're coming in with a 203 00:11:12,960 --> 00:11:16,840 Speaker 1: barbell aspect. Usually they'll bring in a cyclical and they'll 204 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: bring in a growth at the same time, and we 205 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: like that approach. It's worked for us this year. Hey, John, 206 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. We always love getting 207 00:11:24,880 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 1: your thoughts and some of the names that you and 208 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,439 Speaker 1: your teams are looking at. Crown Castle, it's a great name. 209 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:31,960 Speaker 1: I did a lot of work with that company back 210 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:35,400 Speaker 1: in the day in the wireless space. John Augustine, Chief 211 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 1: Investment Officer, Huntington Private Bank, joining us on the phone 212 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:42,440 Speaker 1: from Columbus, Ohio, home of the Ohio State University, which 213 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 1: we're welcoming in my pen lines. I know I'm putting 214 00:11:46,400 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: that out to Matt, so it should be fun. I 215 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 1: want to bring on Brenda O'Connor, Senior vice president, Financial 216 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: advisor for UBS International. Brenda, thanks so much for joining 217 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: us here. You know, we love to to speak to 218 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,800 Speaker 1: you and just get a sense of you know, what 219 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 1: your clients, what your individual clients are asking you. Today. 220 00:12:08,800 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 1: We've got markets you know, making backar nearar all time highs. 221 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: We've had very strong third quarter earnings. What are you 222 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,200 Speaker 1: hearing the most from your clients? Well, thank you for 223 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: having me right. You know, nervous, There risk some nervousness 224 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: about Q three earnings because investors just weren't sure how 225 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 1: bad the damage was going to be from three things 226 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:33,560 Speaker 1: really delta, supply chain issues and increasing input costs. And 227 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: here we are well into Q three earnings, two percent 228 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,839 Speaker 1: of companies have exceeded expectations and markets are up twenty 229 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,439 Speaker 1: three percent year to date. So when I'm looking at 230 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,079 Speaker 1: my client portfolios, I can't help but think we're up 231 00:12:46,080 --> 00:12:48,760 Speaker 1: eight percent last year, We're up a dred percent from 232 00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,920 Speaker 1: the March lows. Maybe it's time to de risk a 233 00:12:51,960 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: little bit, and we're looking to private assets to do that. 234 00:12:55,240 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: That being said, we are so positive on equities. We 235 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,559 Speaker 1: think the SMP will be at around for eight hundred 236 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 1: by next June and five thousands by the end of 237 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: next December. Well, I feel like we've been having this conversation, 238 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,160 Speaker 1: and granted we have had this conversation many, many, many 239 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:12,800 Speaker 1: many times, but the death of the sixty forty portfolio 240 00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 1: and whether that's a strategy that still works. When you 241 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: say you're looking to de risk a little bit, how 242 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: do you think about kind of that ratio in your 243 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: portfolio allocation. Right, So, right now, we really really like 244 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: private real estate. It is a great inflation heads and 245 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 1: we can talk about that more a bit later. It's 246 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,240 Speaker 1: a diverse fire to equities, and it's also great source 247 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,160 Speaker 1: of income and giving given more fixed income, Marcus that 248 00:13:35,280 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: that's super important. We're also not too concerned about these 249 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 1: lofty valuations or the prospect of a housing bubble. Think 250 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: of this. In the US, there's a five point five 251 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:49,080 Speaker 1: million deficit of housing units because construction has dragged for 252 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 1: the last two decades. It's going to take another ten 253 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: years to make this up, which is great for the sector. 254 00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 1: And as vacancy rates are under five percent, which they 255 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,520 Speaker 1: are now, that's great for landlord pricing powers. We really 256 00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:05,080 Speaker 1: like allocating to real estate, private real estate, given where 257 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: markets are right now. So Brannan, you're in South Florida, 258 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,839 Speaker 1: and I love to get a sense of kind of 259 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: what's that market like down there? Is it is robust 260 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:17,240 Speaker 1: is people make it out to be. We've got obviously 261 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 1: a lot of folks here in the New York metro area, 262 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 1: you know, making their migration down there in this time, 263 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: not temporary, not seasonal, bit more permanent, right And you 264 00:14:25,320 --> 00:14:28,880 Speaker 1: can see that everywhere in terms of real estate prices, 265 00:14:29,040 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 1: you can you can see that in terms of the 266 00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: influx of New Yorkers and finance professionals, tech professionals. In 267 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:39,400 Speaker 1: terms of an investment perspective, I've also noticed that the 268 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: appetite for international is somewhat different than we see in 269 00:14:42,720 --> 00:14:45,760 Speaker 1: other parts of the country. So, for example, we're really 270 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:49,360 Speaker 1: looking to China right now. We downgraded China over the 271 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,600 Speaker 1: summer on the back of the regulatory crackdown and education 272 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 1: and gaming. Chinese equities are down year to day, But 273 00:14:56,240 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 1: we do think some of this is priced in. We 274 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,440 Speaker 1: also think some of the fysical titany this person investors 275 00:15:01,440 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: tend to be under allocated to this region. So we 276 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: think there are opportunities in terms of green tech and 277 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:10,600 Speaker 1: consumer durable, but in investment preferences for international seems to 278 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,080 Speaker 1: be a little bit different in self Florida, given the 279 00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,680 Speaker 1: international dynamic of this market. While we're talking about the 280 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,239 Speaker 1: migration to Florida, one of the reasons it's so attractive 281 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: is because of taxes. Frankly, especially compared to you know, 282 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: the New York tri state area where Paul and I 283 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 1: find ourselves. While we're talking about taxes. Given the quote 284 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: unquote framework that we've gotten in terms of what the 285 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:34,680 Speaker 1: tax package is going to look like on capital Hill, 286 00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 1: how does that affect your clients and what you're telling 287 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: them to do. Right, It doesn't change too much because 288 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: our expectations for for next year already factor in, uh, 289 00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: some some tax cuts. So let me talk about this 290 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: in the context of something like in growth UM. You know, 291 00:15:54,880 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: Q three obviously came in at much lower than we 292 00:15:57,920 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: saw in in Q two, at six point seven first 293 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: lower than the consensus. There wasn't anything too surprising here, 294 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 1: given that the this was the first quarter with no 295 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,760 Speaker 1: government stimulus, uh, none of the headwinds that we saw 296 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:13,360 Speaker 1: earlier like delta or supply bottlenecks. We do expect Q 297 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: four to be much stronger. People are traveling again, hotel 298 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: occupancies above sixty five, open table reservation numbers have recovered 299 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: from their severe August September dip, and we do think 300 00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 1: that UM GDP is going to be about five point 301 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: three percent for two. So all our expectations both on 302 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:35,640 Speaker 1: on GDP inflation UM outlook do factor in, uh some 303 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: of those those tax sites that we're expecting to see. 304 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 1: So Brenda, in terms of equities, um, you know, for 305 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 1: those of your clients that have the courage to be 306 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: in the stock market where the sectors that you're suggesting 307 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 1: they focus on. When we're talking to our clients, it 308 00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 1: is all about continuing to follow this positive earning story. 309 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,680 Speaker 1: We do not think that the reflection trade is quite 310 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:02,520 Speaker 1: over yet. We still energy and financials. Think about financials alone, 311 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,159 Speaker 1: we've seen a record here in m and A for 312 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: the investment bank banks. Loan moss reserve continue to be 313 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: released and net interest margins will only start to look better. 314 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: Is that ten uere inches towards one point eight and higher. 315 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 1: The financials that have reported this quarter, by the way, 316 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: have been expectations by a margin of so financials is 317 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: scenario that we're definitely looking at right and we definitely 318 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:29,439 Speaker 1: saw some positive beats when it comes to the energy 319 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 1: complex to day with Exxon and Chevron and those buy backs. 320 00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 1: Man and Goldman sass talking about that, Paul and how 321 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,160 Speaker 1: by backs could be even eight percent above the levels 322 00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 1: they are this year. There's a lot of cash out there. 323 00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:41,399 Speaker 1: There's a lot of cash out there. Hey, Brenda, thank 324 00:17:41,400 --> 00:17:43,280 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. We always appreciate getting 325 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: your perspective. Brenda O'Connor, Senior vice president, financial visor for 326 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: UBS International, based in the Greater Miami, Florida area. Lots 327 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:57,679 Speaker 1: of news coming out of Silicon Valley this week. We've 328 00:17:57,680 --> 00:18:01,240 Speaker 1: got earnings and uh fast name had earnings from Amazon 329 00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 1: and Apple, and then also Facebook making a big, big 330 00:18:05,160 --> 00:18:08,760 Speaker 1: investment in what it calls the metaverse, and in fact 331 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: big enough that they are changing the name of the 332 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:17,360 Speaker 1: company from Facebook two Meta Technologies, Inc. I believe. Mark Berg, 333 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: and technology reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the 334 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: phone from San Francisco. Mark, What is meta? What is 335 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: the metaverse? What is Facebook doing here? Actually? I think 336 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 1: it's meta platforms. What's kind of confusing is they're what 337 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: they're not doing is they're not doing what what Alphabet 338 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 1: Dead or Google did six years ago, which is sort 339 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: of form a new parent company that that have houses 340 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: a bunch of different companies. They're sort of renaming themselves 341 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: but keeping the brand. And part of the idea to 342 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,880 Speaker 1: here is that Mark Zuckerberg, the CEO, as just sort 343 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 1: of betting on Facebook's future being in augmented reality and 344 00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:59,159 Speaker 1: what he calls the metaverse, which is sort of this 345 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:02,600 Speaker 1: a vague idea from science fiction that we will be 346 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:06,520 Speaker 1: able to like engage with with each other in mental reality, 347 00:19:06,520 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: spaces and virtual reality using some sort of all to 348 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: find headgear. At this point it is an oculous device. 349 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,639 Speaker 1: But during the presentation, Sorry, Zuckerberg also showed off service 350 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:21,520 Speaker 1: smart watch and talked about glasses as well. Well, it's 351 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: one thing to decide your company's future, you know, looks 352 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,000 Speaker 1: like that, and you're going to push more into the 353 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 1: meta metaverse in this augmented reality. You can still do 354 00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:34,760 Speaker 1: that without rebranding entirely and without changing the name of 355 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 1: your company, Which makes me wonder how much of this 356 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: is actually because Facebook found itself in very hot water politically. 357 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 1: There's been a lot of negative news flow over the 358 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:47,280 Speaker 1: last several months. Really is this also kind of pr related? 359 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: We saw a lot of people came out with the 360 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,120 Speaker 1: comparison to Philip Morris from two thousan three a belief 361 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 1: when they re branded, and certainly Facebook has been called 362 00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: by critics the new tobacco um. You know, they addressed 363 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 1: us very briefly guest during the presentation, there was sort 364 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 1: of a Interestingly enough, they had Nick Clegg, who was 365 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,040 Speaker 1: the BP of Government Affairs speak and talk about how 366 00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 1: they're when they're approaching the metaverse there going to bake 367 00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: it a lot of the privacy and data controls that 368 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:19,159 Speaker 1: arguably have not been part of Facebook from the onset. 369 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: Well and Paul I couldn't help but notice what represented 370 00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 1: Alexandria Cossio curt Has tweeted after this and she talked 371 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: about the rebrand and she said meta as in, we 372 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: are a cancer to democracy, metastasizing into global surveillance and 373 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,160 Speaker 1: propaganda machine for boosting authoritarian regimes and destroying civil society 374 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: for profits. So clearly the progressives are not that impressed, 375 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 1: not that impressed. And Mark, I mean ten billion dollars 376 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 1: next year, that's kind of a big number, but I mean, 377 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,720 Speaker 1: I know it's for Facebook and they can afford in everything. 378 00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:52,600 Speaker 1: Is the sense that this is something that they're going 379 00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:56,240 Speaker 1: to throw real money behind over the next ten years. 380 00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,200 Speaker 1: I think. So if you look at the strategically, you know, 381 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:02,040 Speaker 1: a key thing to focus on here is that Facebook 382 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 1: U has been sort of boxed out by Apple and 383 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,159 Speaker 1: Google for it's an entire existence at least on the 384 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 1: mobile phone in the past decade. Right, So Facebook doesn't 385 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 1: own the operating system, which is this big existential concern 386 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,600 Speaker 1: for them. You've heard them talk a lot about Apples fees. 387 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 1: They've really been challenged by Apple's ad tracking changes. And 388 00:21:21,320 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 1: this is the way for Facebook to sort of cleverly 389 00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:25,719 Speaker 1: and I think strategically get ahead and say the next 390 00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: computing platform, we not only are going to be there, 391 00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 1: but we're going to be defining company investing the most 392 00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 1: and and um clearly like Apple has been investing a 393 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,560 Speaker 1: lot in augmented reality, Google has a certain extent. Ten 394 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,360 Speaker 1: billions seems like a lot on paper. I saw something 395 00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: someone to say, like, you know, Netflix invest maybe twice 396 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: the amount in it's media right now. And this is 397 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 1: a both a I think investment in media, but also 398 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 1: in hardware, silicon and alto sort of technology that hasn't 399 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: been betted yet. Well that's a great point that I 400 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 1: understand the concept and the idea and they and kind 401 00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 1: of you know the goal behind it, and yet it 402 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,399 Speaker 1: still feels very esoteric and nebulous in a way. How 403 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: refined is this idea. I don't know for a fact 404 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,760 Speaker 1: of how much the presentation yesterday was legitimate technology and 405 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:20,280 Speaker 1: how much of it was Um, stimulation. It seems like 406 00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 1: a fair amount of it was was stimulated, and they 407 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: talked about this is something that we're hoping the next 408 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 1: five or ten years. Um. You know, we saw any 409 00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:30,080 Speaker 1: helpless note to say, this is not the iPhone moment. 410 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 1: There's no actual device, there's no actual kind of this 411 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,119 Speaker 1: is uh an imagine well, which which to um, you 412 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: know Facebook defense. This is something that Google has been 413 00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:41,720 Speaker 1: doing too, where they talk about, here are these projects 414 00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: that we're working on and then give a demo of 415 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:48,600 Speaker 1: a thing that doesn't actually work. Mark internally, How concerned 416 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: is the company, the board, senior executives about the backlash 417 00:22:55,480 --> 00:23:00,159 Speaker 1: from Washington and regulators and just the public in general. Um, 418 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,439 Speaker 1: you know, we had Emily Chang had senior executive on yesterday. 419 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: We answered this, I thought in a really telling way. Um, 420 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,160 Speaker 1: it didn't seem that concerned. I think that they are. 421 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 1: They don't see advertisers leaving as far as they know. Um, 422 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,640 Speaker 1: they don't seem as concerned about it about a breakup. Um, 423 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,440 Speaker 1: clearly this has been you know, they are they're kind 424 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 1: of their positions so far at least both sort of 425 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:25,959 Speaker 1: on on the PR side. And then I could say 426 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 1: politically has been the fight back a little bit and 427 00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 1: the pushback on this and to make this a broader 428 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: issue around not just Facebook but with social media and 429 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: and to that point, you know, the lawmakers right now 430 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,720 Speaker 1: are not writing laws about Facebook. They're writing laws about 431 00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 1: the laws that will effect TikTok, YouTube, Twitter, the rest 432 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: of the like as supported digital platforms. Hey, Mark, thanks 433 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,760 Speaker 1: so much for joining us giving us that update. Here. 434 00:23:52,359 --> 00:23:55,680 Speaker 1: Mark Bergen, technology reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us on 435 00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,000 Speaker 1: the phone from San Francisco. Thanks for listening to the 436 00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 437 00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 1: of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 438 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 439 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,959 Speaker 1: Pet On false Sweeney I'm on Twitter at p T Sweeney. 440 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,719 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 441 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:16,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.