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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to Stephanomics, the podcast that brings the

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Speaker 1: global economy to you. The Indian economy has grown by

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Speaker 1: at least six or seven percent in nearly every one

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Speaker 1: of the past twenty years. That's almost double the growth

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Speaker 1: rate it achieved in its first fifty years as an

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Speaker 1: independent state. But somehow that success isn't translating into jobs.

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Speaker 1: In fact, less than half of the working population is

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Speaker 1: working or even actively looking for work, and the vast

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Speaker 1: majority of Indian women are out of the workforce altogether.

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Speaker 1: So what's going wrong and how important will it be

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Speaker 1: for the newly elected Prime Minister nor Indo Moody to

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Speaker 1: fix it? While a few minutes I'll talk about it

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Speaker 1: with Bloomberg columnist and writer Mihir Shama. I'll also have

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Speaker 1: some brand new research on exactly how the US China

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Speaker 1: trade wars and tariffs are destroying economic activity the US,

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Speaker 1: China and other countries. But first, here's my colleague Aniban

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Speaker 1: Nag who took a closer look at India's job shortage

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Speaker 1: with fellow reporter Fristie p Anywell. That is the busy Promhabib,

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Speaker 1: the station here in central Mumbai with thousands of commuters

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Speaker 1: mill in and out during the morning rush hour. The

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Speaker 1: Indian railways are famous as one of the biggest employers

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Speaker 1: in the world, and this particular station is being manned

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Speaker 1: by a station master, booking clerks and a few sweepers.

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Speaker 1: These jobs don't pay much, but a staggering twenty eight

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Speaker 1: million implied to do one of them recently, and the

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Speaker 1: department that runs the railways announced agnes. One of those

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Speaker 1: who try to get a railway job was sish Kumar.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to stick to a job with computers, but

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Speaker 1: it's so difficult to land a job. If someone knows you,

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Speaker 1: then you get a job. Otherwise it's next to impossible.

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Speaker 1: About We met Sorresh there his one room, rented a

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Speaker 1: house that is a stone's throw away from an open

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Speaker 1: drain and part of one of the most densely populated

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Speaker 1: colonies of Delhi. He's medium built and dressed up for

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Speaker 1: work in a formal cotton shirt and trousers. It's morning,

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Speaker 1: but he's already starting to sweat in the Indian summer,

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Speaker 1: where temperatures can soar past hundred and ten. They raised

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Speaker 1: farre and high. He's thirty years old and holds a

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Speaker 1: diploma and computing from a private institute, but he's working

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Speaker 1: as someone's driver, his wife as a maid. I was

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Speaker 1: hoping for older than that when he moved here from

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Speaker 1: India's central region of mad Depradation. But he recognizes he's

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Speaker 1: one of the lucky ones back in the village. There's

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Speaker 1: so much poverty. We can't even open our own business

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Speaker 1: and there are no banks to offer support with loans.

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Speaker 1: In Delhi, at least you can get a job. I

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Speaker 1: am driving as I have a home to run and

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Speaker 1: send kids to school. Sy Ha's a job, but he's

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Speaker 1: under employed. India's economy is not getting the best out

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Speaker 1: of him. Twelve million Indians entered the labor market each year,

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Speaker 1: and an increasing number of them are under employed, lights

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Speaker 1: race or not in work at all. It was like

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Speaker 1: any week of December that we were told that they

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Speaker 1: will be letting go of the staff and then from

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Speaker 1: there try and if they can survive this stress, which

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Speaker 1: also did not happen because in April almost everybody was

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Speaker 1: asked to go. We found a woman we call Alia

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Speaker 1: because she did not want us to use her real name.

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Speaker 1: We met up in Bloomberg's office in New Delhi, where

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Speaker 1: she lives. Aliyah, who's in her mid thirties, lost her

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Speaker 1: job as a marketing and communications manager after her company's

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Speaker 1: sales failed to gain traction, just as the country was

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Speaker 1: put through a huge challenge of changing much of the

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Speaker 1: currency in circulation. Did they tell you what was the

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Speaker 1: reason for that? No, they just told that they were

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Speaker 1: not able to kind of sustain the operations that they

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Speaker 1: were having. Her mother isn't aware she has lost her job.

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Speaker 1: Her father knows the truth and can sometimes get despondent

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Speaker 1: about her job prospects. Aliyah says she has been able

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Speaker 1: to get some work here and there. She has even

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Speaker 1: managed to repay a Carlo, but it has been tough.

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Speaker 1: I take up freelance projects from time to time, and

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Speaker 1: I try to and obviously try to find, you know,

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Speaker 1: anything that I can apply to. So what I mostly

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Speaker 1: get as a response is that either there are too

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Speaker 1: many aspirants buying for a singular job and so the

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Speaker 1: competition is obviously increased. A part of it was also

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Speaker 1: given to the fact that you know, I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: a job role which is intermate management kind of position

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Speaker 1: and order fresh level, and also the fact that you

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Speaker 1: know the plans keep changing. A lot of positions that

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Speaker 1: are that are actually they think are available go on

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Speaker 1: hold for no reason. There's a lot of uncertainty in

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Speaker 1: terms of organizations in terms of what they they're planning

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Speaker 1: for the next six months to a New York time earlier.

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Speaker 1: Part of the official jobless numbers, and that is probably

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Speaker 1: the tip of the iceberg. The bigger problem is that

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Speaker 1: half the working age population and of women are not

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Speaker 1: even included in that official jobless total, but they're not

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Speaker 1: looking for work at all. India is not the only

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Speaker 1: developing country struggling to bring women into the workforce. What

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Speaker 1: is troubling is that the situation has been getting worse

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Speaker 1: even as the overall economy has been doing quite well.

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Speaker 1: According to the World Bank, nearly twenty million women, a

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Speaker 1: number roughly equivalent to the population of Sri Lanka, dropped

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Speaker 1: out of the workforce between two thousand and five and

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Speaker 1: two thousand and twelve. Economists tell us that this is

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Speaker 1: an enormous missed opportunity, but don't take their vote for it.

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Speaker 1: Ask Christine Lagard, the head of the International Monetary Fund,

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Speaker 1: you can increase US t DP by five because you

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Speaker 1: can increase Indian GDP by twenty seven and decent. If

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Speaker 1: you look at diversification, we have now documented evidence of

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Speaker 1: the fact that when women participate in the economy and

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Speaker 1: in the labor market as much as men do, you

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Speaker 1: have a more diversified economy. And by bringing women to

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Speaker 1: the to the labor markets, giving them access to finance,

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Speaker 1: you reduce the inequality. What would that take in India?

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Speaker 1: We asked some Toshirotra, a professor at New Dearle's Jawaharlal

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Speaker 1: Nehru University. He's an export and employment and labor issues

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Speaker 1: for girls. If you want to make sure that they

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Speaker 1: get jobs, then we have to ensure that childcare. Affordable

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Speaker 1: childcare is much more easily available. UM, public transport is

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Speaker 1: much safer than it has been in the past. UM.

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Speaker 1: And above all, of course, job growth, non agricultural job

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Speaker 1: growth has to happen in construction, in manufacturing and in services.

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Speaker 1: You wouldn't know there's a problem from the latest election results.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister in the Rain the Remote won the country's

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Speaker 1: massive vote last month with an even larger majority than before,

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Speaker 1: but he does recognize the issue. One of the first

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Speaker 1: decisions after taking office for a second five year term

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Speaker 1: was to form a committee of senior ministers to try

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Speaker 1: and address rising on employment. Oh yeah, says it's hard

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Speaker 1: time they deal with the issue because it's a lot

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Speaker 1: bigger than the numbers indicate. Comar, the driver, blames India's

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Speaker 1: education system for the lack of opportunities. Way was that

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Speaker 1: that can't be there? Who made the English community? My

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Speaker 1: English is weak in the villages. They don't teach much English.

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Speaker 1: I started studying English only in the fifth grade and

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Speaker 1: not the first. If I have to blame anyone, it

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Speaker 1: is perhaps myself. So I think I should have more

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Speaker 1: complications of degrees. It can really need to lay out

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Speaker 1: the lack of suitable opportunities. So someone like Coomar risk

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Speaker 1: astonishing the country's image as a major investment destination. Not

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Speaker 1: only that there's a chance of social unrest. Above all,

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Speaker 1: it poses a challenge to policy makers who are keen

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Speaker 1: to read the demographic dividend of a young population, which

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Speaker 1: means it can be a major drive of economic growth.

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Speaker 1: The time is ticking, though, by the share of India's

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Speaker 1: population to that of working age will start declining. India

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Speaker 1: will have to act fast if it has to harness

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Speaker 1: that demographic dividend. By providing jobs to millions sooner rather

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Speaker 1: than later. Kumar thinks it's already too late for him,

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Speaker 1: but he's still holding out hope for the next generation.

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Speaker 1: A year, I have given up hopes of getting a

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Speaker 1: better job. I will get along with whenever it takes.

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Speaker 1: The kids should have better prospects. So I'm very happy

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Speaker 1: now that I can speak to one of Bloomberg's key

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Speaker 1: India columnists, Mihir Shama, about what this means for in

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Speaker 1: his economy and what Prime Mr Modi might be able

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Speaker 1: to do about it going forward, having just been re

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Speaker 1: elected last month. Here, I guess one question people might

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Speaker 1: be asking. I started the program mentioning that India was

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Speaker 1: an economy that had grown six or seven percent a year,

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Speaker 1: pretty much every year for the last twenty years. How

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Speaker 1: has it done so well while not finding jobs for

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Speaker 1: maybe half of its working age population. I think that

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Speaker 1: the real joblessness is a relatively recent phenol. The real

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Speaker 1: jobless growth is a relatively recent phenomenon. Um Up to

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Speaker 1: around twenty eleven, I think jobs were getting created. A

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Speaker 1: lot of those were in, for example, the construction sector,

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Speaker 1: which has traditionally managed to soak up large numbers of

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Speaker 1: relatively underskilled people, particularly from rural areas, in a rapidly

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Speaker 1: expanding urban economy. Around twenty eleven or twenty twelve, the

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Speaker 1: economy begins to slow. You know, you have the crisis,

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Speaker 1: then you have the post crisis stimulus, and then when

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Speaker 1: the stimulus over reaches in around twenty twelve, the economy slows.

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Speaker 1: Investment slows for some reason. Um that slowing is reflected

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Speaker 1: in the job growth numbers are both official and unofficial,

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Speaker 1: but is not showing up as much as one would

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Speaker 1: expect in the new GDP statistics, which has led many people,

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Speaker 1: as as it happens, to start questioning India's growth figgers themselves.

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Speaker 1: But the truth is that from after liberalized fastion, the

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Speaker 1: first ten, fifteen, even twenty years were pretty good for jobs,

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Speaker 1: not as great as they could have been, but not bad.

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Speaker 1: It's really in the past father, nor though year, that

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Speaker 1: we've begun to see something of a crisis. And if

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Speaker 1: you look at the structure of growth, I mean, is

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Speaker 1: it is it to do with the composition of growth

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Speaker 1: that you're not getting the jobs. Like our our economist

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberger, Abishek Gupta, has looked at how in a

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Speaker 1: sense the whole is not necessarily in the manufacturing silence

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Speaker 1: in service sector, and the inability to inability to unleash

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Speaker 1: the service sector is that a big part of it.

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Speaker 1: No country in history has been able to um incorporate

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Speaker 1: unskilled people from the rural economy into a growing middle

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Speaker 1: class with secure jobs without building a manufacturing sector. It

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Speaker 1: is possible, surely, perhaps to do it without but unless

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Speaker 1: you've got oil or something, you can't. There's no there's

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Speaker 1: no roadmap. It's never been done before. India has been

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Speaker 1: d industrializing since the late nineties, which means that the

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Speaker 1: contribution of industry to GDP peaked in around nine ninety

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Speaker 1: seven and since then it has been going down. That's

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Speaker 1: not okay because what that gets replaced with is, of

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Speaker 1: course an increase in the proportion of the service sector

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Speaker 1: in g d P. And the service sector is not

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Speaker 1: you know, we're not talking high level it stuff here,

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Speaker 1: all right. That maybe the image of India, But what

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Speaker 1: the service sector actually is is very very small enterprises

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Speaker 1: one person, two persons, three people working together. In the

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister's words, even a guy frying up dumplings is

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Speaker 1: also a job, right, But those aren't the kind of jobs.

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Speaker 1: I think that people think about when they want them,

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Speaker 1: and those aren't the kind of jobs that create a

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Speaker 1: sustainable middle class. There is really no on for even

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Speaker 1: right now after what could repleeve math manufacturing export oriented

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Speaker 1: math manufacturing as the creator of job So I know

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Speaker 1: you like giving primers demodi advice which he doesn't follow.

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Speaker 1: We shouldn't necessarily stop now if you're just been reelected

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Speaker 1: and have some pressure on you, maybe surprisingly not as

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Speaker 1: much pressure as you might think. I think if less

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Speaker 1: than half of the working age population in the UK

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Speaker 1: or the US we're in work, there would be that

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Speaker 1: would be the only issue on the horizon. I see

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Speaker 1: that that's not really the case in India. But if

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Speaker 1: you're under pressure to deliver m after this election victory,

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Speaker 1: what leavers can he pull? I mean, what would be

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Speaker 1: the key reformer is that you would think of to

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Speaker 1: try and change how much jobs are being created. I

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Speaker 1: think there are three things that you need to do

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Speaker 1: almost immediately because time is running out for all of them.

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Speaker 1: The first is to obstantively change what are called factor markets,

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Speaker 1: so the markets for land and labor in particular. UM,

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Speaker 1: it's very difficult to fire people in India which is

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Speaker 1: why very few people hire them. We have incredibly small

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Speaker 1: textile production facilities, like our textile factories are you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe an average of fifteen or sixteen people in India

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Speaker 1: as opposed to over two to three in just in

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Speaker 1: Bangladesh next door. And so we're uncompetitive when it comes

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Speaker 1: to producing textiles, which is a labor intensive sector. Um

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Speaker 1: So you need to change the laws that constrain the

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Speaker 1: sale of land, that constrain hiring and firing workers. That's

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Speaker 1: point one. Point two is that you have to ensure

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Speaker 1: that you get embedded into global supply chains. Currently, India is,

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Speaker 1: like many other countries around the world, moving in a

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Speaker 1: somewhat protectionist direction. We're putting up tariffs on you know,

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Speaker 1: things like mobile phones and the idea areas to try

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Speaker 1: and create a domestic electronics manufacturing sector, but obviously we

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Speaker 1: know that's not going to happen because of the way

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Speaker 1: that that manufacturing is now organized globally. Um So you

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Speaker 1: have to embed yourself in these global supply chains rather

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Speaker 1: than you know, extracting yourself from them. And the third

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Speaker 1: and I think really the most important at this point

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Speaker 1: is that you need to work on basic educational and skills.

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Speaker 1: We have some of the worst schools in the world.

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Speaker 1: According to many studies, there are kids in class eight

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Speaker 1: in the you know, in their eights here of schooling

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Speaker 1: in the eighth grade who cannot do maths at a

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Speaker 1: second grade level, and that's the majority of So you

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Speaker 1: need to intervene both of the primary level and with

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Speaker 1: those who have already left school and are and are

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Speaker 1: currently underskilled. So those interventions have to be massive and immediate,

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Speaker 1: the educational ones. And you did mention we had at

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Speaker 1: the end of that segment as well. This question is

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Speaker 1: the time pressure. Um. You know, you might think India

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Speaker 1: had all the time in the world given the scale

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Speaker 1: of its economy and a number of people, but this

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Speaker 1: key demographic point that you have a sweet spot as

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Speaker 1: an economy where you have a sort of peak a

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Speaker 1: number of working age people with fewer children, having fewer children,

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Speaker 1: but no longer, not not getting older yet. How important

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Speaker 1: is it for India to get this right before it

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Speaker 1: starts seeing that demographic change and the aging that we've

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Speaker 1: seen in that obviously in other countries. So one of

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Speaker 1: the crucial questions in development of can a country get

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Speaker 1: rich before it gets old? Right? And the truth is

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Speaker 1: that we are a much younger country than a lot

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Speaker 1: of others where our average age is still in the

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Speaker 1: twenties where within China, Japan, But that obviously won't last forever.

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Speaker 1: As birth rates begin to fall going forward, our average

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Speaker 1: age will increase, which means that the proportion of people

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Speaker 1: in the working age population as opposed to those out

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Speaker 1: of it, will begin to Right now, we are seeing

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Speaker 1: a lot of growth and a lot of dynamism precisely

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Speaker 1: because that working age population is increasing in composition, in size,

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Speaker 1: in proportion. That will not be the case going forward.

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Speaker 1: And the bad news is it is already the case

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Speaker 1: that we are facing demographic demographic pressure in some of

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Speaker 1: the more advanced and developed parts of India. States along

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Speaker 1: the coast in the south of India, which have higher

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Speaker 1: human capital levels, which are more integrated with the global

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Speaker 1: economy um which have better skills, those areas are in

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Speaker 1: fact already beginning to see this demographic change. They're getting older.

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Speaker 1: Where population growth is really coming from, where we have

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Speaker 1: our current youth bulge, all these working age population, working

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Speaker 1: age people applying for these jobs in the railways and

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Speaker 1: so on and so forth. That's in the north, in

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Speaker 1: the interior, and that's not that's not a part of

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Speaker 1: the country that is properly connected to the global economy.

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Speaker 1: It's not connected to markets. These are people who are underskilled.

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Speaker 1: So there is this a regional disparity in how things

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Speaker 1: are turning out that evolved a problem. Some people listening

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Speaker 1: may have the same experience that I have that the

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Speaker 1: the Indian business people that one sees at conferences or

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Speaker 1: interviewed often on Bloomberg or in anywhere else, you get

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Speaker 1: the sense of an incredibly dynamic economy really digitally switched

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Speaker 1: on developing things that actually are ahead in many cases

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Speaker 1: of advanced economies on the digital front um, and even

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Speaker 1: on applying it to some public sector challenges. Is that

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Speaker 1: just are we seeing just a tiny fraction, Because if

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Speaker 1: you listen to those people, you would think, wow, India

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Speaker 1: is going to be able to ride the wave of

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Speaker 1: all these technological changes that are happening around the world

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Speaker 1: that everyone fears India is going to clean up as

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Speaker 1: a result of those changes. Well, I mean there are

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Speaker 1: two things to be said there. The first is one

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Speaker 1: should never trust what people in Indian business see, only

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Speaker 1: what they do and when they start investing in India,

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Speaker 1: then I will take their claims that India India has

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Speaker 1: a bright future. Seriously, we have a crisis and private

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Speaker 1: investment has been shrinking for for years as a proportional GDP,

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Speaker 1: and that doesn't appear to have cleared up yet, so

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Speaker 1: they don't appear to have confidence in where they're putting

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Speaker 1: their money. So I don't believe anything they say about

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Speaker 1: you know, when when they make all these sort of

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Speaker 1: claims about India's future. The other thing about you know,

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Speaker 1: can India righte the you know, automation digital wave of

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Speaker 1: the future. Everybody else is worrying because they're losing jobs.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I suppose you can be more optimistic

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Speaker 1: about it when you've never had the jobs in the

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Speaker 1: first place. If you see the entire world moving towards

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Speaker 1: an economy, you know, which is precarious when nobody has

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Speaker 1: a real job where you have to work three things,

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Speaker 1: and you know you have service sector jobs that don't

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Speaker 1: pay enough. Well, we've lived that already. But the truth

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Speaker 1: is that we are worth off because we need to

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Speaker 1: at least have a phase of those manufacturing jobs in

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Speaker 1: order to build the middle cloths that can then complain

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Speaker 1: we've never built the middle cloth that can complain, so

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Speaker 1: you're not hearing any completely well uh here, that's many

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Speaker 1: people who read your college would say that's a characteristically

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Speaker 1: blunt assessment of the situation for India's economy. But thanks

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Speaker 1: very much for joining us. Thanks so Some people would

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Speaker 1: say that we talk too much about trade wars on

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Speaker 1: this podcast, but we have a lot to say about them,

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Speaker 1: and this week is no exception because we have a

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Speaker 1: really interesting analysis by our economists who are part of

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, of the impact that trade wars are having already,

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Speaker 1: particularly in China, but also on production levels and sales

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Speaker 1: in the US. And I'm very glad that I can

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Speaker 1: talk a bit with one of the people who crunched

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Speaker 1: the numbers on this, one of our Eurozone economists, maybe

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Speaker 1: a Kuza maybe. Thank you very much for joining us

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Speaker 1: from Zurich, Hasty if any, thanks for inviting me. So

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Speaker 1: tell me a little bit about this research, because what

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Speaker 1: was interesting to me is that although often people have

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Speaker 1: talked about the big picture potential impact of trade wars

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Speaker 1: on global growth, you took a micro approach looking at

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Speaker 1: the imports that have been affected by tariffs. What did

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Speaker 1: you find so yes, we used very detailed data from

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Speaker 1: the US International Trade Commission, and we looked at the

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Speaker 1: different categories, the six thousand plus categories of products that

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Speaker 1: have been imposed some tarifts by the US on US

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Speaker 1: on imports from China. And what we've found first is

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Speaker 1: that when you look at the value of imports from

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Speaker 1: China across those categories which have been parift since Juday

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Speaker 1: to September twenty eighteen Juday to September last year, if

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Speaker 1: you look at the time series, you can see a

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Speaker 1: sharp top which happens just after the introduction of the

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Speaker 1: different waves of tariffs. And in total, if you look

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Speaker 1: at the value of US imports from China across those

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Speaker 1: categories in the first quarter of twenty nineteen, so after

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Speaker 1: the introduction of all the tariffs of the first wave

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Speaker 1: of tariffs, and you compare with what happened a year earlier,

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Speaker 1: that is value on those goods is done by twenty

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Speaker 1: six percent. That's fifteen point eight billion dollars worth of

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Speaker 1: Chinese imports that have not entered the US across across

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Speaker 1: those those products. What's interesting as well is that when

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Speaker 1: we looked at what happened to imports of those products

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Speaker 1: from the rest of the world. They have increased a

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Speaker 1: little bit, but only by five point four billion dollars

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Speaker 1: in the year to UH the first quarter of twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: So in total, it's a gap of ten point four

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Speaker 1: billion dollar worth of imports that has not entered the

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Speaker 1: US and those categories that have been tariffed for China.

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Speaker 1: Have you seen any evidence of this diversion of trade

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Speaker 1: as a result of these harriffs that you just get

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Speaker 1: the same products coming in from other countries rather than

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Speaker 1: the reduction in imports overall. So we've seen a little

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Speaker 1: bit of that, indeed, of diverge, diversion from them away

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Speaker 1: from China and to other countries um as you can see,

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Speaker 1: because there's still a ten billion gap in imports across

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Speaker 1: those categories. It does only partly of set the impact

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Speaker 1: of lower trade with China, but we've seen some of that.

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Speaker 1: We've seen in particular if you look across the main

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Speaker 1: trade partners for the US and the main countries in

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Speaker 1: the Asian subplate chain, countries like Vietnam, Vietnam, Taiwan, and

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Speaker 1: South Korea, I've seen an acceleration of their exports to

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Speaker 1: the of their exports to the US. I noticed in

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Speaker 1: your report that they also looked like there were just

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Speaker 1: some sort of creative ways around these tarriers that were

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Speaker 1: being found, like, for example, those big surge in the

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Speaker 1: number of TVs coming in from China to the US

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Speaker 1: which are not subject to tarriers, and a reduction in

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Speaker 1: the number of TV parts coming in because those are

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Speaker 1: subject to tariffs. But you would say that there's still

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Speaker 1: been a real impact on Chinese producers. Yes, I think so.

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Speaker 1: I think there has been a little bit of moving

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Speaker 1: across categories from from tarift categories to nontarift categories at

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Speaker 1: the margin, but overall, I think that's on the top.

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Speaker 1: And indeed, um total Chinese imports, total imports from China

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Speaker 1: to the US acrourse tarift and learned tarift categories of

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Speaker 1: decline from the first quarter of twenty eighteen to the

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Speaker 1: first quarter of because I mean President Trump would say

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Speaker 1: this is all great, because it's going to provide room

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Speaker 1: for all these US manufacturers to get in and start

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Speaker 1: producing things themselves. Have we seen domestically made goods filling

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Speaker 1: the gap? So unfortunately we can't see that from the

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Speaker 1: data we have because there are childe data, so we

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Speaker 1: only imports. What I would say is that when you

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Speaker 1: look at them at this imports number, it has clearly

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Speaker 1: has had a very disruptive effect on US imports from China.

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Speaker 1: It has had a disruptive effect on US imports total

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Speaker 1: total imports from the world in total, as we can

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Speaker 1: see these ten billions worth of goods that didn't enter

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Speaker 1: the US. And that's because China was such a dominant player,

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Speaker 1: such a big player across those categories that as the

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Speaker 1: rest of factories in the rest of the world, we're

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Speaker 1: not big enough to pick up the slack and to

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Speaker 1: HaVeset the effect. And because many of those goods are

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Speaker 1: actually intermediate goods, good that US factories would use in

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Speaker 1: their production process, it is likely to have a creeping

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Speaker 1: impact on US industry because basically what happens is that

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Speaker 1: part of the supply chain, the backward looking part of

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Speaker 1: their access to supply has been broken. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: I hope we have you on again as we track

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Speaker 1: the impact of this trade will thank you thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to Stephanomic. Join us next week for more on

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Speaker 1: the ground insight into the global economy. In the meantime,

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Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website, app

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Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if

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Speaker 1: you took the time to rate and review our show

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Speaker 1: so it can reach more people. And for more news

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Speaker 1: and analysis through the week from Bloomberg Economics, you just

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Speaker 1: have to follow us Economics on Twitter. You can also

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Speaker 1: find me on at my Stephanomics. This episode was written

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Speaker 1: and reported by Anaban Nag and Rishti beneval I should

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Speaker 1: mention that you also heard a clip in that piece

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Speaker 1: from Christine Leguard, which was actually recorded at a Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: event in December six. It was produced by Magnus Hendrickson

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Speaker 1: and edited by Nastrine Syria and Scott Laman, who's also

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Speaker 1: the executive producer of Stephanomics Special thanks to Mehir Sharma

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Speaker 1: and Mahiva Kuzan. Francesco Levy is the head of Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Podcast