WEBVTT - The Biggest Changes in Tech Over the Past Decade

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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<v Speaker 1>plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can

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<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show at two

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well. J and J's COVID

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<v Speaker 1>nineteen vaccine could protect millions more Americans from contracting the

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<v Speaker 1>coronavirus their vaccine, as we know, given emergency youth authorization

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<v Speaker 1>by US regulators. That happened over the weekend. While the

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<v Speaker 1>company Tim we know out in full force today talking

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<v Speaker 1>about the rollout. In fact, our team over on Bloomberg Television,

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<v Speaker 1>David Weston catching up with J and J CEO Alex

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<v Speaker 1>Gorski about that rollout. Check it out. We've got a safe,

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<v Speaker 1>We've got an effective, saying little shot vaccine that can

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<v Speaker 1>be refrigerated using very standard procedures, and that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be available right here in the United States the tune

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<v Speaker 1>of a hundred million doses by June this year, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>and that was Alex Gorski, Jane Jay's CEO. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>get some thoughts on that latest COVID vaccine, our daily

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<v Speaker 1>check on the virus. Yeah, Michael Dowling as President and

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<v Speaker 1>CEO of north Well Health. He joins us on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from New Hyde Park, New York. Hey, Michael, great

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<v Speaker 1>to have you back on the show. How are you doing.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm doing well. Thank you so much, appreciate it. What

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<v Speaker 1>are you seeing? What are you seeing across across north

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<v Speaker 1>Well Health right now when it comes to the virus,

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<v Speaker 1>especially with regard to this Jane, janeuse what do you

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<v Speaker 1>make of it? The vis itself? The numbers of decreasing

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<v Speaker 1>now today have about nine hundred COVID patients about three

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<v Speaker 1>weeks ago I found so the number is dropping and

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<v Speaker 1>the positivity in the region is dropping. So the signs

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<v Speaker 1>are all good. And the new gang vaccine, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>is a huge step forward, and we're expecting but I

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<v Speaker 1>have been told that we may get some of the

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<v Speaker 1>J vaccine later this week. The state is going to

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<v Speaker 1>get a couple hundred thousands more doses each week from

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<v Speaker 1>now on, So that just increases the supply. Because the

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<v Speaker 1>supply has been the biggest issue over the last number

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks and months that this infrastructure is there to

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<v Speaker 1>do the vaccination, the supply has been the problem. And

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<v Speaker 1>with Jane J is a one dose vaccine, it is

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<v Speaker 1>just an unbelievable step forward. How do you go ahead?

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<v Speaker 1>How do you determine if you let's say you have

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<v Speaker 1>because you've already been administering vaccine, Michael, If if you

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<v Speaker 1>do have let's say Fiser vaccine and the Derna vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>and j J vaccine, how do you determine who gets

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<v Speaker 1>what vaccine? Well, that US criteria that are being developed,

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<v Speaker 1>which we're getting about what the priorities are for for

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<v Speaker 1>the for the j J vaccine, I think it's for

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<v Speaker 1>people over age six or five. I think it's for

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<v Speaker 1>the younger people would be a priority at the beginning,

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<v Speaker 1>anybody from I believe a eighteen to six to sixty

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<v Speaker 1>five where I haven't seen the definitive final recommendations yet

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<v Speaker 1>from CC from the CDC, but we'll wait for that

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<v Speaker 1>will wait for that directive from both the state and

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<v Speaker 1>the CDC. But whatever it is, it means more more

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<v Speaker 1>shots in Tiber's arms and that's the ultimate right now,

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<v Speaker 1>But there will be it sounds like um specifications for

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<v Speaker 1>each of the vaccine ultimately, Is that fair to say, Michael, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it will become more generical of the time.

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<v Speaker 1>I think at the beginning, I think there'd be more prialitization.

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<v Speaker 1>My guess is that for people, you know, the older

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<v Speaker 1>worlder population might meet had the preference for the five

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<v Speaker 1>Madame and Indian or population for from the J and J.

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<v Speaker 1>But but I do think people there are so many

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<v Speaker 1>people climbing for a vaccine that once you have the

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<v Speaker 1>once you have to supply whatever vaccine, people will want

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<v Speaker 1>to take it. Right I know J vaccine is still

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<v Speaker 1>still seventy two efficacy, which is phenomenal. It's great, right exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>What's interesting now, Michael, and listen, I don't want to

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<v Speaker 1>be like, you know, Tim and I joke were like

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<v Speaker 1>I'll take anyone right now. Um. But complicating matters is

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<v Speaker 1>j J is also testing a two shot version of

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine, so it does suggest that it thinks adding

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<v Speaker 1>a second shot could improve protection. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>where the public gets a little nervous. You're a medical professional,

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<v Speaker 1>you're working within this. How should we read something like that? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I would say if, for example, the one doors vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>gives you, it gives you the seventy seventy percent efficacy

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<v Speaker 1>and it protects against severe illness and there's a very

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<v Speaker 1>few of cases and it gives you eighty six percent

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<v Speaker 1>efficacy in that regard, I think that's a win. What

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<v Speaker 1>you really want is to protect people from getting really

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<v Speaker 1>sick and to protect pet of them getting into the hospital.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you have a vaccine, just like the flu vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't protect the university across the board, but it does

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<v Speaker 1>prevent you from getting really seriously ill. So it's a

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<v Speaker 1>win to have to be prevented from a severe illness

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<v Speaker 1>and keeping out of the hospital. And if any of

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccines do that, um, then I think that's again

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<v Speaker 1>a win win for the public. I do wonder to

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<v Speaker 1>what extent that the general public is focused on that

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<v Speaker 1>number S versus when it comes to m R and

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<v Speaker 1>a go ahead. I honestly don't think that they've spent

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<v Speaker 1>all the same will that been awful lot of attention.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think most people from when I am, when

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<v Speaker 1>I'm out there, they just want to vaccine. Well, can

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<v Speaker 1>I just tell you all that I want to be

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<v Speaker 1>sure that they don't really get Michael February survey found

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<v Speaker 1>only seven percent of people wanted a single dose vaccine,

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<v Speaker 1>compared with fifty eight percent who said they preferred two

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<v Speaker 1>doors series. This was UM a presentation Sunday to the

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<v Speaker 1>Centers for Disease Control UM and some others. So you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we've learned so much about creating a vaccine and about efficacy,

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<v Speaker 1>but at the same time, a little bit of knowledge

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<v Speaker 1>can be dangerous, yes, and you know you know recently

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll alwa was it um spozemic? And even I

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<v Speaker 1>think pies are basically indicating if I'm corrected, you know

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<v Speaker 1>that there is we protection even with the one dolls,

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<v Speaker 1>even though we're giving two dolls. Is I can tell

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<v Speaker 1>you if you want to expand the vaccination to the

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<v Speaker 1>public in general, just giving one dose across the board,

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<v Speaker 1>it just makes life so much easier. We can do

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<v Speaker 1>so much more and it will be a lot better

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<v Speaker 1>having everybody having a se protection against illness instead of

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<v Speaker 1>having a small number having So I just think that

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<v Speaker 1>the more the fact that we can do more people,

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<v Speaker 1>the better. So when you look out for the next

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<v Speaker 1>few months, at the next six months, at the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, how do you see our world reopening.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the timeline that you're thinking about. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>it will be a slow process, be incremental. I think

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<v Speaker 1>we'll be in a pretty good situation by October November,

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<v Speaker 1>is my guest. Once we get everybody vaccinated, hopefully by

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<v Speaker 1>July August. You should see Tim's face. You should see

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<v Speaker 1>the two of us were just but but I think

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<v Speaker 1>we've got to be a little bit practical here because

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to be different. The economy is going to

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<v Speaker 1>come back in a different way. The use of technology

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<v Speaker 1>and the changing nature of work that has evolved as

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<v Speaker 1>a result of COVID is going to make everything different.

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<v Speaker 1>People now realize that they don't have to be coming

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<v Speaker 1>to the office every day to be effective and productive,

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<v Speaker 1>that they can be working remotely, and that's going to

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<v Speaker 1>affect every business that's just health care, about every single business.

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<v Speaker 1>And I do think the economic implications of COVID that

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<v Speaker 1>businesses that are will be less robust. Now I want

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<v Speaker 1>some businesses not coming back at all. That the economic

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<v Speaker 1>implications of COVID I think will even be more difficult

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<v Speaker 1>and more long terrent than actually dealing with COVID itself.

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<v Speaker 1>We had a big crisis for the past twel months.

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<v Speaker 1>By the way, the first COVID case that we received

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<v Speaker 1>that not well was a year ago tomorrow, and we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen a hundred and sixty COVID patients since that time.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think it's going to be it's going to

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<v Speaker 1>be incremental. It will be different every organization. Now, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're see of any organization, you've got to be sitting

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<v Speaker 1>back and saying, how do I transform? How do I

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<v Speaker 1>completely we think my business given the new circumstance. And

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<v Speaker 1>quite frankly, I also think some of I think that

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<v Speaker 1>some of this would be good because I do believe

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<v Speaker 1>that we will reconfigure our organizations in a better way

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<v Speaker 1>going forward based upon the lessons of the last year. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>So we'll have to be patient here. The economy will

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<v Speaker 1>stop to come back, and I think by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of the year we will be doing will be in

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<v Speaker 1>a pretty good place, I believe. Um Now, we we

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<v Speaker 1>can't get complacent at the moment because you've got these

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<v Speaker 1>variants out there, and you know you could get a surprise.

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<v Speaker 1>We're just hoping it doesn't happen, but you've gotta be

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<v Speaker 1>ready for if it does occur. But we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>be We're going to be different in the future. We're

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<v Speaker 1>not going back to pre COVID days the way it was. Hey, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>I want to talk about your book, but I do

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<v Speaker 1>want to ask you when you talk about variants, are

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<v Speaker 1>you even a little bit concerned that these variants will

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<v Speaker 1>create another big way for us? I know I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think so. I mean it does mean it could mean

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<v Speaker 1>that well, because the transmission is easier, that more people

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<v Speaker 1>could get a COVID. But if the vaccine keeps you

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<v Speaker 1>from getting severely ill, keeps you out of the hospital,

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<v Speaker 1>that to me is a win. So let's just show

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<v Speaker 1>me get COVID and you feel bad for a week,

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<v Speaker 1>but you're not hospitalized. That's a good outcome. And remember,

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<v Speaker 1>no vaccine is of a full proof, as I said earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>So I think that we deal with that is a

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<v Speaker 1>circumstance acause but I would not get orderly worried about it.

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<v Speaker 1>But I would be cautious. All right, We gotta talk

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<v Speaker 1>about your memoir. It's called After the Roof Caved in

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<v Speaker 1>an immigrants journey from Ireland to America and coming up

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<v Speaker 1>on March eleven, So you're gonna be doing a live

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<v Speaker 1>reading of it from the book review in Huntington, Long Island.

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<v Speaker 1>I know the book review. It is an incredible bookstore

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<v Speaker 1>and they feature the best writers. That's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>at seven pm. You're going to be interviewed by I

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<v Speaker 1>believe is it, Neil O'Dowd, Neil Okay. So tell us

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<v Speaker 1>about this within person. You know, it would be nice

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<v Speaker 1>to be in person. I know, I know that's the

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<v Speaker 1>way the world is. Tell us about this book, well,

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<v Speaker 1>I you know, it's an Immergrant story and it basically

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<v Speaker 1>is a story about what that everything is possible. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is the message I'm trying to convey to people,

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<v Speaker 1>including as the younger people and many employees here that

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<v Speaker 1>I respective of the circumstances you grow up in, it

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<v Speaker 1>should never limit your potential of what you would try

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<v Speaker 1>to achieve. I grew up in severe poverty. I left

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<v Speaker 1>home when I was young. I was sixteen. When I

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<v Speaker 1>left home, I was the oldest. I lived in a

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<v Speaker 1>home that actually the reason for the for the name

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<v Speaker 1>of the book. As the roof caved in with the whole.

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<v Speaker 1>The roof of the house fell down onest twice. We

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<v Speaker 1>had not running water, no bathrooms, no heat, and no electricity, etcetera.

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<v Speaker 1>And it was it was a tough environment. But on

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<v Speaker 1>the other hand, it was you know, it motivates you

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<v Speaker 1>to do better with your life. And so the book

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<v Speaker 1>is the story I you know, I kept getting pressure

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<v Speaker 1>from a lot of people to write it. I declined

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<v Speaker 1>for many many years, and then one I stopped it.

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<v Speaker 1>Putting it together, it made sense, and I'm I hope

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<v Speaker 1>it offers a little bit of inspiration to people. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot different than a lot of other immigrants stories.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fact that I am doing what I am

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<v Speaker 1>today given where I came from is to me. It

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<v Speaker 1>just proves that if you're positive and you have a

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<v Speaker 1>sense of optimism, and you walk hard, and you and

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, you take advantage of what the United

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<v Speaker 1>States offers to you, and you take risks. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>the sky is the limit, So be upbeat and be positive.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's what the book essentially is about. I love it.

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<v Speaker 1>I love it brings very true and I feel like

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<v Speaker 1>it's a perfect message. On this Monday, Michael Dowling, be

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<v Speaker 1>Well President CEO at Northwell Health, on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>New Hyde Park, New York. His book After the Roof

0:11:41.240 --> 0:11:44.120
<v Speaker 1>Caved In an immigrants Journey from Ireland to America. This

0:11:44.640 --> 0:11:48.360
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:52.560
<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. We know this named

0:11:52.600 --> 0:11:56.680
<v Speaker 1>CEO last September, technically though her first day on the job. Tim,

0:11:56.880 --> 0:11:59.160
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about Jane Fraser. She's now in the CEO

0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.400
<v Speaker 1>c running the third largest U S bank. We're talking

0:12:01.400 --> 0:12:04.440
<v Speaker 1>about City Bank and getting right to work. So let's

0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:06.800
<v Speaker 1>get into it with Jenny Serene, she's reporting about it

0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.000
<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg Business Week, Finance reporter at Bloomberg News on

0:12:10.080 --> 0:12:12.120
<v Speaker 1>the phone in New York City, joining us along with

0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber. Joel, I feel like

0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.240
<v Speaker 1>there's so much going on when it comes to the

0:12:16.280 --> 0:12:18.800
<v Speaker 1>big Wall Street banks. But this is a big deal.

0:12:19.480 --> 0:12:22.360
<v Speaker 1>Having a woman a top a major Wall Street firm

0:12:23.120 --> 0:12:25.319
<v Speaker 1>big time, and it's been We've been talking about this

0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:28.920
<v Speaker 1>story for for years, maybe even decades, about which bank

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 1>is going to happen at Who's the woman who's going

0:12:30.960 --> 0:12:33.760
<v Speaker 1>to crack the ceiling? And then we found out, you know,

0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:35.440
<v Speaker 1>obviously a couple of months ago that it was going

0:12:35.480 --> 0:12:39.319
<v Speaker 1>to be Jane Fraser at City. And I'm really curious Jenny,

0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.520
<v Speaker 1>Like we knew a lot of things that she was

0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:45.280
<v Speaker 1>gonna face and have to deal with. And I want

0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 1>to talk about that, But then I also just want

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:49.079
<v Speaker 1>to talk about day one because she's come out and

0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:53.160
<v Speaker 1>actually really already sort of caught attention. And what was

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>the number one thing she came out of the gate with. Yeah,

0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.120
<v Speaker 1>her very first announcement on her first day at CEO

0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:02.880
<v Speaker 1>was that INANC is going to achieve net zero emissions

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:06.839
<v Speaker 1>by and so she she announced that to employees and

0:13:07.280 --> 0:13:09.719
<v Speaker 1>to the broader public today, And I think it's really

0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:11.679
<v Speaker 1>her trying to put her stamp on this issue and

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 1>and really say, this is going to be what matters

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:16.959
<v Speaker 1>to me and what matters to city? What are what

0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:19.280
<v Speaker 1>are her other priorities right now? I mean, she's got

0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:21.080
<v Speaker 1>to be hitting the ground running today. What's on her

0:13:21.120 --> 0:13:24.200
<v Speaker 1>to do list? Yeah? Well, so I think she started

0:13:24.240 --> 0:13:27.240
<v Speaker 1>the day actually with kind of a virtual town hall, which, um,

0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:29.800
<v Speaker 1>you know that's part of what's so weird about this

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.880
<v Speaker 1>time is it feels almost anticlimactic to have, you know,

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 1>the first female CEO of a major US bank and

0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:37.959
<v Speaker 1>she's taking over and it's all being done virtually. But

0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:40.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, I think more broadly, she's got a lot

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.679
<v Speaker 1>on her plate in terms of the regulatory homework that

0:13:42.800 --> 0:13:45.080
<v Speaker 1>the O c C and the FED assigned them last year.

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.480
<v Speaker 1>She's got to overhaul all of their internal technology and controls. UM.

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.439
<v Speaker 1>That's work that's going to take years, costs a lot

0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.679
<v Speaker 1>of money, and require them to know, hire thousands of

0:13:55.760 --> 0:13:57.920
<v Speaker 1>people for this effort. So I think that's really the

0:13:58.000 --> 0:13:59.959
<v Speaker 1>big thing on her plate right now. Well, and it's

0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.400
<v Speaker 1>interesting you write this in your reporting that she has

0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:06.479
<v Speaker 1>said that City Group Strategy doesn't need a massive overhaul

0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:09.280
<v Speaker 1>UM and she's just going to kind of do it

0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:14.480
<v Speaker 1>as she goes along. So do you buy that? You know,

0:14:14.640 --> 0:14:17.640
<v Speaker 1>I think it's I think what she wants is really

0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:20.280
<v Speaker 1>UM to kind of stick with their knitting in terms

0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 1>of the things that they're really good at. And because

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 1>you know, they've got a lot on their plate in

0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:27.400
<v Speaker 1>terms of this regulatory work, they've got to find other

0:14:27.480 --> 0:14:31.160
<v Speaker 1>ways to cut UM. They've got really big, ambitious targets

0:14:31.200 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 1>for getting their returns up to what Jopy Morgan and

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Bank of America look like. So, yeah, she's going to

0:14:35.960 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 1>be making some changes, but I think what she's been

0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:40.280
<v Speaker 1>trying to communicate is that it's not going to look

0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:42.840
<v Speaker 1>vastly different. There just me, but might be some tweaking

0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:46.960
<v Speaker 1>on the on the margins. There's also, um, this this

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 1>blooper as I've been referring to it, Jenny, which was

0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:54.400
<v Speaker 1>the money that got wired from city to creditors and

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.800
<v Speaker 1>then they managed to get some of it claw Claude

0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:02.000
<v Speaker 1>back but not others. They lie a court case recently

0:15:02.040 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 1>about this, Um no doubt underway. The appeal is underway.

0:15:06.200 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 1>But but how much of that is an impediment to

0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:12.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of her her first um uh, you know you're

0:15:12.920 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>on the job. Yeah, I mean, I think that's just

0:15:16.560 --> 0:15:20.160
<v Speaker 1>a really embarrassing example of the types of work that

0:15:20.240 --> 0:15:21.880
<v Speaker 1>they have to get done in order to just how

0:15:21.920 --> 0:15:24.680
<v Speaker 1>to sign their regulators. So I think, you know, regulators

0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 1>have been stepping around and you know, really disappointed with

0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 1>the bank for a long time now, and this rev

0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:32.480
<v Speaker 1>line issue where they accidentally sent out nearly a billion

0:15:32.560 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 1>dollars just kind of shows exactly what these regulators were

0:15:35.360 --> 0:15:37.720
<v Speaker 1>talking about and exactly what they want City Group to fix.

0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:40.960
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's kind of emblematic of really deeper

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:43.680
<v Speaker 1>issues that city has to fix. And we'll have to

0:15:43.880 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 1>hire lots of people and you know, change lots of

0:15:47.280 --> 0:15:50.720
<v Speaker 1>executives around probably and and really dig in and fix

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 1>this up. Um. And she said, and she's committed to

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:58.760
<v Speaker 1>doing that. Um. So when is where is um She's

0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:01.960
<v Speaker 1>going to look for strategy to gross Jenny Where where's

0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>the Jane Fraser uh future? What is that going to

0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 1>look like? So one of the other big things she's

0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.160
<v Speaker 1>done in recent weeks was she actually collapsed their private

0:16:12.200 --> 0:16:15.680
<v Speaker 1>banking arm and their wealth management arm and so that

0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:18.200
<v Speaker 1>is now City Global Wealth. And I think they're really

0:16:18.280 --> 0:16:20.800
<v Speaker 1>hoping that this is where they can find growth. You know,

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:22.760
<v Speaker 1>you don't really think of City as a wealth shop.

0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>They um got out of that business during the crisis

0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.840
<v Speaker 1>and really haven't made any big parades. And then you

0:16:27.920 --> 0:16:31.120
<v Speaker 1>see folks like Morgan Stanley kind of you know, really

0:16:31.200 --> 0:16:33.400
<v Speaker 1>making lots of money there. So I think they're trying

0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.000
<v Speaker 1>to kind of, um take a little tab out of

0:16:36.680 --> 0:16:39.120
<v Speaker 1>a bank like Morgan Stanley's book, and we'll see if

0:16:39.160 --> 0:16:42.280
<v Speaker 1>they're successful. Um. But she's also she's got a lot

0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of distractions when it comes to really growing that business.

0:16:44.520 --> 0:16:46.800
<v Speaker 1>So it'll it'll be interesting to watch. Hey, Jenny, before

0:16:46.840 --> 0:16:48.560
<v Speaker 1>you go, we gotta ask you about your other story,

0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.840
<v Speaker 1>something that's definitely caught our attention. Your story kicks off

0:16:51.920 --> 0:16:54.520
<v Speaker 1>with Walmart just took a step closer to being JP

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:57.880
<v Speaker 1>Morgan chases biggest Nightmare. There's so much going on with

0:16:57.920 --> 0:17:00.800
<v Speaker 1>the big banks. I feel like, right now, what do

0:17:00.920 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 1>we need to know? Just got about forty five seconds here. Yeah, Walmart,

0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, they just um in January announced that they're

0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 1>going to start this outside financial technology startups and really

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:12.959
<v Speaker 1>have been tight lets since then about what that's going

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.359
<v Speaker 1>to look like. Um. And then this weekend we found

0:17:15.400 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 1>out if they've hired two senior guys from Goldman to

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.520
<v Speaker 1>come in and run it. So definitely I wanted to

0:17:20.560 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 1>watch and and we'll be really interesting to see what

0:17:22.560 --> 0:17:25.720
<v Speaker 1>they do with it. Yeah. Absolutely, Um, good stuff. Thank

0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:28.600
<v Speaker 1>you so much. Jenny Seraine, finance reporter at Bloomberg News

0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.959
<v Speaker 1>on the phone in New York City. Check out all

0:17:31.040 --> 0:17:33.040
<v Speaker 1>of her reporting and of course our thanks to Joe

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Webber editor Bloomberg Business Week on the remote access from Brooklyn.

0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.080
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So ten years ago,

0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:48.959
<v Speaker 1>one of our most beloved franchises, Bloomberg TV, kicked off,

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:52.479
<v Speaker 1>initially known as Bloomberg West, later as Bloomberg Technology, steered

0:17:52.560 --> 0:17:56.560
<v Speaker 1>and shepherded by Bloomberg's Emily Shang, and a lot has

0:17:56.640 --> 0:17:59.159
<v Speaker 1>happened in the past decade. We've seen early trends that

0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.200
<v Speaker 1>took off, some things that didn't so much. So we

0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.400
<v Speaker 1>thought we'd take a look back at the past decade. Tim.

0:18:04.520 --> 0:18:06.560
<v Speaker 1>We'll joining us now is Emily Chang. She's the host

0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 1>of Bloomberg Technology on a Bloomberg Television. Joining us on

0:18:09.840 --> 0:18:15.800
<v Speaker 1>the phone from San Francisco. Emily, ten years wow, ten years.

0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I have spent the last week two weeks laughing and

0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:23.159
<v Speaker 1>crying as I've been going through all foot did and Carol,

0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:25.280
<v Speaker 1>I'm so happy to be here with you because I

0:18:25.359 --> 0:18:27.840
<v Speaker 1>have never anchored before. When I came to Bloomberg and

0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 1>you showed me the ropes and I still used the

0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.399
<v Speaker 1>terminal command would be on that very first day so

0:18:33.600 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 1>thank you, well, congratulations because I've always loved listening to

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:39.879
<v Speaker 1>your interviews and you're inside and you just took us

0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:43.160
<v Speaker 1>to places, you know, of trends that we now all

0:18:43.200 --> 0:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>take for granted today and also uncovered things that you were,

0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:48.159
<v Speaker 1>you know, you would be skeptical about because you're like, well,

0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:49.800
<v Speaker 1>wait a minute, this really going to play out? So

0:18:50.640 --> 0:18:53.920
<v Speaker 1>what what really stands out for you in terms of

0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the past ten years. My goodness, it is so hard

0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:01.600
<v Speaker 1>to boil it down. When the show launched, it was February. Um,

0:19:01.760 --> 0:19:05.040
<v Speaker 1>Steve Jobs was still alive. He died later that year.

0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.439
<v Speaker 1>Tim Cook became CEO, and since then the iPhone has

0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:13.359
<v Speaker 1>leaked ten generations. That's just one thing. Um. Amazon is

0:19:13.520 --> 0:19:16.320
<v Speaker 1>probably the biggest value creation story of the last decade,

0:19:16.800 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 1>with the e commerce business exploding, the cloud exploding, Alexa

0:19:21.240 --> 0:19:24.040
<v Speaker 1>now being part of the furniture. Also, there's a lot

0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.119
<v Speaker 1>of things that didn't work out, Like you know, we

0:19:26.200 --> 0:19:28.600
<v Speaker 1>went back, we saw some old footage of me wearing

0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>Google glass that never really became a thing, snaps spectacles, um.

0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:37.119
<v Speaker 1>And of course there's Tesla, which I think has taken

0:19:38.000 --> 0:19:40.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people by surprise, and and and a

0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:43.000
<v Speaker 1>good surprise if you're thinking about what it means for

0:19:43.080 --> 0:19:44.679
<v Speaker 1>the planet. I just have to say, for those who

0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:47.040
<v Speaker 1>are watching our show right now on YouTube, they got

0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:49.680
<v Speaker 1>to see you put on those those spectacles. They looked

0:19:49.720 --> 0:19:52.520
<v Speaker 1>kind of cute, kiddo. I'm just gonna say, yeah, you know,

0:19:52.760 --> 0:19:55.720
<v Speaker 1>I thought that they like's not bad. It's a pretty stylus.

0:19:56.080 --> 0:19:57.720
<v Speaker 1>It's a shame they didn't work out. But you know,

0:19:57.800 --> 0:20:01.160
<v Speaker 1>and I'm not counting a r or virtual blog is out.

0:20:01.240 --> 0:20:03.200
<v Speaker 1>I think maybe they just came a little too soon,

0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:07.000
<v Speaker 1>and uh, somebody else may figure out the right form

0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:09.840
<v Speaker 1>factor in the next decade. So Emily, I'm gonna ask

0:20:09.840 --> 0:20:13.520
<v Speaker 1>you to put on your your predictor hat and really

0:20:13.560 --> 0:20:16.240
<v Speaker 1>think about based on what you're thinking about right now,

0:20:16.520 --> 0:20:19.080
<v Speaker 1>the people you're talking to right now, what is it

0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:21.560
<v Speaker 1>that that we're talking about when we're sitting together in

0:20:21.640 --> 0:20:25.920
<v Speaker 1>ten years ten years from now. So it's almost impossible

0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.119
<v Speaker 1>to predict how much technology will change in the next decade,

0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.640
<v Speaker 1>except to know that it will change faster than we think.

0:20:32.240 --> 0:20:35.040
<v Speaker 1>One thing is for sure, AI will be a much

0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:38.160
<v Speaker 1>bigger part of the conversation. We can't know for sure

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:40.320
<v Speaker 1>how it will change our lives or make our lives different,

0:20:40.400 --> 0:20:42.359
<v Speaker 1>but we can be sure that our lives will be

0:20:42.680 --> 0:20:47.200
<v Speaker 1>very different as a result machine learning. All of these companies, UM,

0:20:47.560 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>every company is going to be incorporating new technologies into

0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:53.120
<v Speaker 1>their products. UM. I think it'll be interesting to see

0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:56.280
<v Speaker 1>if you know, the four or five major tech companies

0:20:56.760 --> 0:20:59.280
<v Speaker 1>UM still exist as they are today, where they're all

0:20:59.359 --> 0:21:03.760
<v Speaker 1>facing UM antitrust scrutiny. UM, not just from the US

0:21:03.840 --> 0:21:08.920
<v Speaker 1>government but governments around the world. Do Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,

0:21:09.440 --> 0:21:12.800
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft all existing ten years as they do today? How

0:21:12.880 --> 0:21:16.240
<v Speaker 1>are they different? UM? How much our acquisitions in big

0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.280
<v Speaker 1>field part of the conversation? And who are the new innovators?

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:23.440
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I'm watching UM, TikTok and next Door. I

0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 1>actually interviewed Reid Hoffman. You're going to see a clip

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:29.000
<v Speaker 1>of that interview on the show later today. UM, the

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:30.960
<v Speaker 1>co founder of Lincoln He think he thinks we're going

0:21:31.040 --> 0:21:34.200
<v Speaker 1>to have an explosion of social platforms, many social platforms,

0:21:34.240 --> 0:21:37.160
<v Speaker 1>not just one obvious go to Hey, I gotta ask

0:21:37.200 --> 0:21:40.240
<v Speaker 1>you because you're also the author of Brotopia, breaking Up

0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:43.520
<v Speaker 1>the Boys Club of Silicon Valley, and you really took

0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:47.320
<v Speaker 1>a deep dive into why men were dominating the tech industry.

0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:51.280
<v Speaker 1>And I do wonder to have have things changed at all?

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Is there more diversity? It's something we've talked about a

0:21:54.119 --> 0:21:56.200
<v Speaker 1>lot in the past year because of the pandemic, the

0:21:56.280 --> 0:22:01.720
<v Speaker 1>lack of diversity, uh in Silicon Valley. Is it changing, Carol?

0:22:02.040 --> 0:22:05.439
<v Speaker 1>It is happening, The conversation is happening, but the numbers

0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:08.199
<v Speaker 1>are not changing fast enough. I mean, just looking at

0:22:08.240 --> 0:22:10.040
<v Speaker 1>a recent statistic that we're going to bring up on

0:22:10.080 --> 0:22:14.240
<v Speaker 1>the show today, women make up about twelve of decision

0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:16.560
<v Speaker 1>makers at venture capital firms. So these are the people

0:22:16.600 --> 0:22:18.840
<v Speaker 1>who are deciding where the money goes, what gets a

0:22:18.960 --> 0:22:21.919
<v Speaker 1>chance to be the next Google or Facebook or Apple.

0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:27.480
<v Speaker 1>Women founded startups are only getting about of the funding.

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:31.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean, more starts of population. Come on, I know exactly.

0:22:32.440 --> 0:22:34.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm excited to see where we are a decade from

0:22:34.520 --> 0:22:37.280
<v Speaker 1>now because there is motivation, there are people who care.

0:22:37.359 --> 0:22:39.840
<v Speaker 1>There are more people fighting about this and talking about

0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:42.280
<v Speaker 1>this than certainly there were a decade ago. And I

0:22:42.400 --> 0:22:45.080
<v Speaker 1>believe that the most visionary people in the most visionary

0:22:45.160 --> 0:22:48.240
<v Speaker 1>industry in the world can do this. Hey, can I

0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:51.280
<v Speaker 1>can I say one more thing? In ten years? You've

0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:56.480
<v Speaker 1>had a few kids, right, just as you um to

0:22:56.600 --> 0:22:58.800
<v Speaker 1>show is my first baby. But believe it or not,

0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:02.640
<v Speaker 1>I've had four children in the last next and it's

0:23:02.840 --> 0:23:07.119
<v Speaker 1>kind of mind blowing to think that. Um yeah, I was,

0:23:07.560 --> 0:23:09.880
<v Speaker 1>you know, building a show and becoming a mom all

0:23:09.920 --> 0:23:12.679
<v Speaker 1>at the time and looking to people like you who

0:23:12.760 --> 0:23:16.120
<v Speaker 1>are working moms who you know have figured it out

0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:19.040
<v Speaker 1>and you know, I know it's a constant balancing act.

0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:22.400
<v Speaker 1>But um, you know, I'm I'm really proud and I'm

0:23:22.440 --> 0:23:26.840
<v Speaker 1>always looking for more advice. So Carol, find out how

0:23:26.920 --> 0:23:29.920
<v Speaker 1>you still look so good. I always loving. We're together

0:23:29.960 --> 0:23:32.760
<v Speaker 1>and we huddle, but I'm in awe. You have shown

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:34.680
<v Speaker 1>how you can do it all and it isn't always easy,

0:23:34.800 --> 0:23:37.560
<v Speaker 1>but uh, it's just great stuff. Kiddout and looking forward

0:23:37.600 --> 0:23:39.879
<v Speaker 1>to the next ten years. Emily Chang check her out

0:23:39.920 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Technology. That's today at five pm Wall Street

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.400
<v Speaker 1>Time on Bloomberg Television. She has seen so much much

0:23:45.520 --> 0:23:47.600
<v Speaker 1>and always talking to the people who are at the

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:51.320
<v Speaker 1>cutting edge. She has interviewed everybody, I mean anyone who's

0:23:51.320 --> 0:23:53.960
<v Speaker 1>anybody in Silicon Valley. It's amazing and she's really nice

0:23:54.040 --> 0:24:01.960
<v Speaker 1>to journal now. But you let me drive no no,

0:24:02.040 --> 0:24:08.080
<v Speaker 1>no home, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel I

0:24:08.200 --> 0:24:24.600
<v Speaker 1>want to drive, just drive. Questions Drying, He's the drive

0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:28.160
<v Speaker 1>to the globe. Give me thanks well, Drying us down

0:24:28.480 --> 0:24:31.040
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Now we just got about eleven minutes

0:24:31.080 --> 0:24:33.719
<v Speaker 1>left in today's trading session. Carol Mass along with Tim

0:24:33.760 --> 0:24:36.480
<v Speaker 1>Stenovik in our Interactive Broker's studio. I want to welcome

0:24:37.040 --> 0:24:39.960
<v Speaker 1>Dave down Obedient. He is Chief Investment Officer of CIBC

0:24:40.160 --> 0:24:44.280
<v Speaker 1>Private Wealth Management, seventy four billion in assets under management,

0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:46.560
<v Speaker 1>with us once again on the phone from Baltimore. Dave,

0:24:46.640 --> 0:24:49.399
<v Speaker 1>how are you. I'm doing well, How are you doing okay?

0:24:49.640 --> 0:24:53.680
<v Speaker 1>Different day, feels like a different tone this week. Market volatility,

0:24:53.800 --> 0:24:55.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's kind of the norm. We're supposed to

0:24:55.680 --> 0:24:59.320
<v Speaker 1>have volatility in the markets. What does the recent trade

0:24:59.359 --> 0:25:01.800
<v Speaker 1>and then particular equity versus what we saw on the

0:25:01.840 --> 0:25:04.800
<v Speaker 1>bond market, what does it say to you? Well, I

0:25:04.920 --> 0:25:07.520
<v Speaker 1>think you always look to the treasury market as a

0:25:07.640 --> 0:25:10.879
<v Speaker 1>signal about what equity investors are most worried about, and

0:25:10.920 --> 0:25:13.600
<v Speaker 1>so you know, we saw this significant rise and yields

0:25:13.680 --> 0:25:17.119
<v Speaker 1>really going back to the Georgia Senate election basis points,

0:25:17.240 --> 0:25:19.320
<v Speaker 1>and you know what that says, I think is that

0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:22.920
<v Speaker 1>equity investors are no longer first and foremost worried about

0:25:23.040 --> 0:25:25.960
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and a double dipercession. They're more worried about

0:25:26.200 --> 0:25:29.920
<v Speaker 1>economic overheating, higher inflation, and higher borrowing costs. So that's

0:25:29.920 --> 0:25:33.720
<v Speaker 1>a pretty significant, uh you know change, And what's what's

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the top the wall of worry? And I think that

0:25:36.200 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 1>the bond market and inflation statistics are going to get

0:25:39.800 --> 0:25:43.520
<v Speaker 1>much much, much more attention really all this year suppared

0:25:43.560 --> 0:25:45.480
<v Speaker 1>to recent years. Well so, so, what what is the

0:25:45.560 --> 0:25:47.720
<v Speaker 1>signal that you think the bond market is sending. Is

0:25:47.760 --> 0:25:50.159
<v Speaker 1>it sending one about inflation or is it sending one

0:25:50.200 --> 0:25:55.400
<v Speaker 1>about optimism about the economy. Well, I think it's beginning

0:25:55.480 --> 0:25:59.240
<v Speaker 1>to send some messages on inflation because, uh, you know,

0:25:59.359 --> 0:26:01.440
<v Speaker 1>I think the the likelihood now that we're going to

0:26:01.520 --> 0:26:04.520
<v Speaker 1>see this very significant one point nine trillion or something

0:26:04.600 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>close to its relief package pass um. You know, you

0:26:08.160 --> 0:26:10.040
<v Speaker 1>have to when when you look at the impact of

0:26:10.160 --> 0:26:12.920
<v Speaker 1>the COVID package that just passed at the end of December,

0:26:13.359 --> 0:26:16.399
<v Speaker 1>that already by January, and it had this incredible adrenaline

0:26:16.480 --> 0:26:19.959
<v Speaker 1>rush for disposable income and pushing the savings right over.

0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:24.800
<v Speaker 1>I think investors, bond and equity investors are thinking, well,

0:26:24.840 --> 0:26:27.960
<v Speaker 1>what happens if you more than double the size those

0:26:28.040 --> 0:26:31.320
<v Speaker 1>direct to household payments. What happens when you extend an

0:26:31.400 --> 0:26:35.840
<v Speaker 1>increase the supplemental unemployment benefits? What happens when you extend

0:26:35.920 --> 0:26:38.720
<v Speaker 1>more interest free money to businesses? And this idea that

0:26:39.359 --> 0:26:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe maybe we haven't quite priced in just

0:26:42.119 --> 0:26:44.920
<v Speaker 1>how strong the economy is going to be. And and

0:26:45.240 --> 0:26:48.240
<v Speaker 1>I think it's you know, that sort of overheating risk

0:26:48.400 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 1>is going to the sort of a periodic um risk.

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:55.280
<v Speaker 1>That's equity and bond investors are gonna have to deal with,

0:26:55.480 --> 0:26:58.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, all year long. Really, we still have, though

0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:03.280
<v Speaker 1>a pretty steep unemployment rate, and we still have a

0:27:03.400 --> 0:27:08.119
<v Speaker 1>lot of workers in terms of underemployment, it's still pretty steep.

0:27:08.840 --> 0:27:12.560
<v Speaker 1>So does that kind of keep things in check? I

0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:14.600
<v Speaker 1>think it ultimately does. I don't think we're at the

0:27:14.640 --> 0:27:18.160
<v Speaker 1>beginning of the next great inflation wave, you know, reducts

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.239
<v Speaker 1>of the seventies. I think we're a ways away from

0:27:20.280 --> 0:27:21.840
<v Speaker 1>that for the reasons you mentioned. We still have a

0:27:21.880 --> 0:27:24.960
<v Speaker 1>significant output gap. But you look over the next few

0:27:25.040 --> 0:27:28.200
<v Speaker 1>months and I think there are some data points that

0:27:28.320 --> 0:27:30.399
<v Speaker 1>investors are going to have to deal with and and

0:27:30.520 --> 0:27:33.040
<v Speaker 1>and that the Fed even may eventually be be concerned

0:27:33.040 --> 0:27:36.880
<v Speaker 1>about we we know that we had three deflation every

0:27:36.960 --> 0:27:39.320
<v Speaker 1>months right when when COVID hit last year, They're gonna

0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:41.879
<v Speaker 1>lap out of the year of a year comparison. So

0:27:42.440 --> 0:27:45.359
<v Speaker 1>by the third quarter, most inflation indicators will probably have

0:27:45.520 --> 0:27:47.840
<v Speaker 1>a have a to handle. Um. If you look at

0:27:47.880 --> 0:27:50.800
<v Speaker 1>the I s M report this morning, not just showing

0:27:50.840 --> 0:27:54.840
<v Speaker 1>overall strong activity in the manufacturing sector, but the prices

0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:57.439
<v Speaker 1>paid component was the highest it's been since two thousand

0:27:57.480 --> 0:28:00.119
<v Speaker 1>and eight, and vendor deliveries are stringing way out out

0:28:00.160 --> 0:28:04.320
<v Speaker 1>the longest they've been since two thousand four and so UM.

0:28:05.119 --> 0:28:07.159
<v Speaker 1>You know, we know that looking at the tips of

0:28:07.200 --> 0:28:10.680
<v Speaker 1>markets and inflationary expectations have been climbing higher. But there's

0:28:10.720 --> 0:28:15.080
<v Speaker 1>indications on main street to that inflation expectations of climbing.

0:28:15.080 --> 0:28:17.640
<v Speaker 1>The University of Michigan sentiment survey that came out last

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:21.840
<v Speaker 1>week UM showed that this year consumers expect the highest

0:28:21.920 --> 0:28:25.399
<v Speaker 1>rate of inflation in in over seven years. So UM,

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we are going to have to You know,

0:28:27.520 --> 0:28:31.119
<v Speaker 1>the feed is sort of branded this as transitory. UM,

0:28:31.440 --> 0:28:34.879
<v Speaker 1>I think it's more significant than that. So, given given

0:28:34.920 --> 0:28:38.480
<v Speaker 1>these thoughts, about inflation, about the bond market, Dave, Um,

0:28:38.680 --> 0:28:41.640
<v Speaker 1>how are you thinking about asset allocation for your customers

0:28:41.760 --> 0:28:45.360
<v Speaker 1>right now? For your clients, yeah, I would say, um,

0:28:45.600 --> 0:28:49.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, underweight core fixed income? Uh? We are you

0:28:49.800 --> 0:28:51.840
<v Speaker 1>coming into the year with the tenure Treasury would would

0:28:51.840 --> 0:28:53.480
<v Speaker 1>spend most of the year between one and a half

0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:55.480
<v Speaker 1>and two percent. I still think that's right. So there's

0:28:55.480 --> 0:28:59.960
<v Speaker 1>an an upward bias to yield. UM. Some things we've

0:29:00.040 --> 0:29:03.760
<v Speaker 1>recommended as sort of supplementary income have been floating rate debt,

0:29:03.800 --> 0:29:07.560
<v Speaker 1>and they preferred securities on the equity markets were roughly

0:29:07.640 --> 0:29:09.640
<v Speaker 1>equal weight. It's a it's a balance between some of

0:29:09.680 --> 0:29:12.280
<v Speaker 1>those interest rate risks that I mentioned, but on the

0:29:12.360 --> 0:29:13.680
<v Speaker 1>other side of the fact that we're going to have

0:29:13.720 --> 0:29:17.480
<v Speaker 1>at least a increase in corporate earnings, so we think

0:29:17.520 --> 0:29:23.400
<v Speaker 1>that that equities are still attractive relative to UH to bond. Hey, Dave,

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:25.480
<v Speaker 1>one thing I want to ask you, and I'm forgiving.

0:29:25.520 --> 0:29:27.360
<v Speaker 1>I'm kind of thinking back to something Tim and I

0:29:27.480 --> 0:29:31.160
<v Speaker 1>were just talking about Elizabeth Warren talking about a wealth

0:29:31.280 --> 0:29:35.800
<v Speaker 1>tax um UH and talking about it could raise something

0:29:35.880 --> 0:29:38.360
<v Speaker 1>like three chillion dollars over over a decade. I was

0:29:38.440 --> 0:29:40.680
<v Speaker 1>talking about two being at milk in just a couple

0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:42.080
<v Speaker 1>of years ago, and there are a lot of wealthy

0:29:42.080 --> 0:29:43.760
<v Speaker 1>individuals who said, Yeah, it's time for us to pay

0:29:43.760 --> 0:29:46.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more taxes. Is that even likely? And

0:29:47.000 --> 0:29:49.200
<v Speaker 1>do you think it's a good or bad idea? UM?

0:29:49.320 --> 0:29:51.680
<v Speaker 1>I think the wealth tax is not a very workable

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:53.200
<v Speaker 1>idea when you look at the history of it in

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:56.000
<v Speaker 1>other countries. Very hard to collect, very hard to measure.

0:29:56.200 --> 0:29:57.920
<v Speaker 1>That's why I think it won't happen. But I do

0:29:58.120 --> 0:30:01.800
<v Speaker 1>think that we're going to see some tax increases on

0:30:01.920 --> 0:30:06.160
<v Speaker 1>corporations and upper income individuals through more conventional rate means

0:30:06.240 --> 0:30:09.240
<v Speaker 1>that the corporate tax rate, the top marginal tax bracket,

0:30:09.600 --> 0:30:13.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe on capital gains more likely to be focused than

0:30:13.960 --> 0:30:18.920
<v Speaker 1>this year. Wow. I wonder about back to the portfolio

0:30:19.000 --> 0:30:22.320
<v Speaker 1>construction and thinking about what your clients are saying right now, Um,

0:30:22.520 --> 0:30:25.200
<v Speaker 1>what is the most common question that you're you're answering,

0:30:25.240 --> 0:30:28.280
<v Speaker 1>that you're that you're fielding. The most common question is

0:30:28.360 --> 0:30:31.160
<v Speaker 1>one that nobody in Washington seems to be asking, which

0:30:31.240 --> 0:30:34.680
<v Speaker 1>is something like what about the deficit? What about the

0:30:34.800 --> 0:30:39.160
<v Speaker 1>national debt? And kind of why does nobody seem to care? Uh,

0:30:39.440 --> 0:30:42.320
<v Speaker 1>get that question constantly from from clients. And it's a

0:30:42.400 --> 0:30:44.880
<v Speaker 1>really good question. What's your answer. The short answer to

0:30:45.000 --> 0:30:48.160
<v Speaker 1>it is a lot of people will care just not now.

0:30:48.760 --> 0:30:52.160
<v Speaker 1>As long as you have the central Bank as a massive,

0:30:53.240 --> 0:30:56.240
<v Speaker 1>massive buyer of treasury securities, as long as you have

0:30:56.440 --> 0:31:01.680
<v Speaker 1>a still relatively low um inflation rate and low interest cost.

0:31:02.200 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 1>It's a it's a backburner issue right now, not a

0:31:04.880 --> 0:31:07.880
<v Speaker 1>front burner issue, right And I think many would argue

0:31:08.000 --> 0:31:10.720
<v Speaker 1>or counter with saying, listen, it's more important that we

0:31:10.800 --> 0:31:12.760
<v Speaker 1>do everything and anything to shore up the economy because

0:31:12.800 --> 0:31:14.680
<v Speaker 1>if we let the economy sink to a point where

0:31:14.720 --> 0:31:16.560
<v Speaker 1>it's going to be even tougher to get on the

0:31:16.640 --> 0:31:21.320
<v Speaker 1>other side. Um, that's a bigger problem potentially. Yeah. I

0:31:21.360 --> 0:31:23.680
<v Speaker 1>mean what you hear right now in Washington is the

0:31:23.840 --> 0:31:27.880
<v Speaker 1>risk is going too small on this relief package, like

0:31:28.200 --> 0:31:30.440
<v Speaker 1>in the lessons from two eight, because we talk about

0:31:30.480 --> 0:31:32.720
<v Speaker 1>the deeper you fall, although we are coming out of

0:31:32.760 --> 0:31:34.280
<v Speaker 1>it already, but you want to make sure you don't

0:31:34.280 --> 0:31:36.440
<v Speaker 1>slip back in. All right, we've just got about three

0:31:36.480 --> 0:31:38.520
<v Speaker 1>and a half minutes in the trading session or thanks

0:31:38.560 --> 0:31:41.680
<v Speaker 1>to Dave Donna Beede and chief Investment Officer at CIBC

0:31:41.800 --> 0:31:46.840
<v Speaker 1>Private Wealth Management with US from Baltimore. Thanks for listening

0:31:46.840 --> 0:31:50.320
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:31:50.440 --> 0:31:52.600
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:31:52.600 --> 0:31:55.200
<v Speaker 1>our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

0:31:55.320 --> 0:31:58.040
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube. Starch to Bloomberg Global News

0:32:00.600 --> 0:32:01.239
<v Speaker 1>I SA