Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing
Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance,
Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business
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Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well. J and J's COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen vaccine could protect millions more Americans from contracting the
Speaker 1: coronavirus their vaccine, as we know, given emergency youth authorization
Speaker 1: by US regulators. That happened over the weekend. While the
Speaker 1: company Tim we know out in full force today talking
Speaker 1: about the rollout. In fact, our team over on Bloomberg Television,
Speaker 1: David Weston catching up with J and J CEO Alex
Speaker 1: Gorski about that rollout. Check it out. We've got a safe,
Speaker 1: We've got an effective, saying little shot vaccine that can
Speaker 1: be refrigerated using very standard procedures, and that's going to
Speaker 1: be available right here in the United States the tune
Speaker 1: of a hundred million doses by June this year, all right,
Speaker 1: and that was Alex Gorski, Jane Jay's CEO. So let's
Speaker 1: get some thoughts on that latest COVID vaccine, our daily
Speaker 1: check on the virus. Yeah, Michael Dowling as President and
Speaker 1: CEO of north Well Health. He joins us on the
Speaker 1: phone from New Hyde Park, New York. Hey, Michael, great
Speaker 1: to have you back on the show. How are you doing.
Speaker 1: I'm doing well. Thank you so much, appreciate it. What
Speaker 1: are you seeing? What are you seeing across across north
Speaker 1: Well Health right now when it comes to the virus,
Speaker 1: especially with regard to this Jane, janeuse what do you
Speaker 1: make of it? The vis itself? The numbers of decreasing
Speaker 1: now today have about nine hundred COVID patients about three
Speaker 1: weeks ago I found so the number is dropping and
Speaker 1: the positivity in the region is dropping. So the signs
Speaker 1: are all good. And the new gang vaccine, of course,
Speaker 1: is a huge step forward, and we're expecting but I
Speaker 1: have been told that we may get some of the
Speaker 1: J vaccine later this week. The state is going to
Speaker 1: get a couple hundred thousands more doses each week from
Speaker 1: now on, So that just increases the supply. Because the
Speaker 1: supply has been the biggest issue over the last number
Speaker 1: of weeks and months that this infrastructure is there to
Speaker 1: do the vaccination, the supply has been the problem. And
Speaker 1: with Jane J is a one dose vaccine, it is
Speaker 1: just an unbelievable step forward. How do you go ahead?
Speaker 1: How do you determine if you let's say you have
Speaker 1: because you've already been administering vaccine, Michael, If if you
Speaker 1: do have let's say Fiser vaccine and the Derna vaccine
Speaker 1: and j J vaccine, how do you determine who gets
Speaker 1: what vaccine? Well, that US criteria that are being developed,
Speaker 1: which we're getting about what the priorities are for for
Speaker 1: the for the j J vaccine, I think it's for
Speaker 1: people over age six or five. I think it's for
Speaker 1: the younger people would be a priority at the beginning,
Speaker 1: anybody from I believe a eighteen to six to sixty
Speaker 1: five where I haven't seen the definitive final recommendations yet
Speaker 1: from CC from the CDC, but we'll wait for that
Speaker 1: will wait for that directive from both the state and
Speaker 1: the CDC. But whatever it is, it means more more
Speaker 1: shots in Tiber's arms and that's the ultimate right now,
Speaker 1: But there will be it sounds like um specifications for
Speaker 1: each of the vaccine ultimately, Is that fair to say, Michael, Well,
Speaker 1: I think it will become more generical of the time.
Speaker 1: I think at the beginning, I think there'd be more prialitization.
Speaker 1: My guess is that for people, you know, the older
Speaker 1: worlder population might meet had the preference for the five
Speaker 1: Madame and Indian or population for from the J and J.
Speaker 1: But but I do think people there are so many
Speaker 1: people climbing for a vaccine that once you have the
Speaker 1: once you have to supply whatever vaccine, people will want
Speaker 1: to take it. Right I know J vaccine is still
Speaker 1: still seventy two efficacy, which is phenomenal. It's great, right exactly.
Speaker 1: What's interesting now, Michael, and listen, I don't want to
Speaker 1: be like, you know, Tim and I joke were like
Speaker 1: I'll take anyone right now. Um. But complicating matters is
Speaker 1: j J is also testing a two shot version of
Speaker 1: the vaccine, so it does suggest that it thinks adding
Speaker 1: a second shot could improve protection. And I think that's
Speaker 1: where the public gets a little nervous. You're a medical professional,
Speaker 1: you're working within this. How should we read something like that? Well,
Speaker 1: I would say if, for example, the one doors vaccine
Speaker 1: gives you, it gives you the seventy seventy percent efficacy
Speaker 1: and it protects against severe illness and there's a very
Speaker 1: few of cases and it gives you eighty six percent
Speaker 1: efficacy in that regard, I think that's a win. What
Speaker 1: you really want is to protect people from getting really
Speaker 1: sick and to protect pet of them getting into the hospital.
Speaker 1: So if you have a vaccine, just like the flu vaccine,
Speaker 1: doesn't protect the university across the board, but it does
Speaker 1: prevent you from getting really seriously ill. So it's a
Speaker 1: win to have to be prevented from a severe illness
Speaker 1: and keeping out of the hospital. And if any of
Speaker 1: the vaccines do that, um, then I think that's again
Speaker 1: a win win for the public. I do wonder to
Speaker 1: what extent that the general public is focused on that
Speaker 1: number S versus when it comes to m R and
Speaker 1: a go ahead. I honestly don't think that they've spent
Speaker 1: all the same will that been awful lot of attention.
Speaker 1: But I think most people from when I am, when
Speaker 1: I'm out there, they just want to vaccine. Well, can
Speaker 1: I just tell you all that I want to be
Speaker 1: sure that they don't really get Michael February survey found
Speaker 1: only seven percent of people wanted a single dose vaccine,
Speaker 1: compared with fifty eight percent who said they preferred two
Speaker 1: doors series. This was UM a presentation Sunday to the
Speaker 1: Centers for Disease Control UM and some others. So you know,
Speaker 1: we've learned so much about creating a vaccine and about efficacy,
Speaker 1: but at the same time, a little bit of knowledge
Speaker 1: can be dangerous, yes, and you know you know recently
Speaker 1: and I'll alwa was it um spozemic? And even I
Speaker 1: think pies are basically indicating if I'm corrected, you know
Speaker 1: that there is we protection even with the one dolls,
Speaker 1: even though we're giving two dolls. Is I can tell
Speaker 1: you if you want to expand the vaccination to the
Speaker 1: public in general, just giving one dose across the board,
Speaker 1: it just makes life so much easier. We can do
Speaker 1: so much more and it will be a lot better
Speaker 1: having everybody having a se protection against illness instead of
Speaker 1: having a small number having So I just think that
Speaker 1: the more the fact that we can do more people,
Speaker 1: the better. So when you look out for the next
Speaker 1: few months, at the next six months, at the rest
Speaker 1: of the year, how do you see our world reopening.
Speaker 1: What's the timeline that you're thinking about. I think that
Speaker 1: it will be a slow process, be incremental. I think
Speaker 1: we'll be in a pretty good situation by October November,
Speaker 1: is my guest. Once we get everybody vaccinated, hopefully by
Speaker 1: July August. You should see Tim's face. You should see
Speaker 1: the two of us were just but but I think
Speaker 1: we've got to be a little bit practical here because
Speaker 1: we're going to be different. The economy is going to
Speaker 1: come back in a different way. The use of technology
Speaker 1: and the changing nature of work that has evolved as
Speaker 1: a result of COVID is going to make everything different.
Speaker 1: People now realize that they don't have to be coming
Speaker 1: to the office every day to be effective and productive,
Speaker 1: that they can be working remotely, and that's going to
Speaker 1: affect every business that's just health care, about every single business.
Speaker 1: And I do think the economic implications of COVID that
Speaker 1: businesses that are will be less robust. Now I want
Speaker 1: some businesses not coming back at all. That the economic
Speaker 1: implications of COVID I think will even be more difficult
Speaker 1: and more long terrent than actually dealing with COVID itself.
Speaker 1: We had a big crisis for the past twel months.
Speaker 1: By the way, the first COVID case that we received
Speaker 1: that not well was a year ago tomorrow, and we've
Speaker 1: seen a hundred and sixty COVID patients since that time.
Speaker 1: So I think it's going to be it's going to
Speaker 1: be incremental. It will be different every organization. Now, if
Speaker 1: you're see of any organization, you've got to be sitting
Speaker 1: back and saying, how do I transform? How do I
Speaker 1: completely we think my business given the new circumstance. And
Speaker 1: quite frankly, I also think some of I think that
Speaker 1: some of this would be good because I do believe
Speaker 1: that we will reconfigure our organizations in a better way
Speaker 1: going forward based upon the lessons of the last year. Um.
Speaker 1: So we'll have to be patient here. The economy will
Speaker 1: stop to come back, and I think by the end
Speaker 1: of the year we will be doing will be in
Speaker 1: a pretty good place, I believe. Um Now, we we
Speaker 1: can't get complacent at the moment because you've got these
Speaker 1: variants out there, and you know you could get a surprise.
Speaker 1: We're just hoping it doesn't happen, but you've gotta be
Speaker 1: ready for if it does occur. But we're going to
Speaker 1: be We're going to be different in the future. We're
Speaker 1: not going back to pre COVID days the way it was. Hey, listen,
Speaker 1: I want to talk about your book, but I do
Speaker 1: want to ask you when you talk about variants, are
Speaker 1: you even a little bit concerned that these variants will
Speaker 1: create another big way for us? I know I don't
Speaker 1: think so. I mean it does mean it could mean
Speaker 1: that well, because the transmission is easier, that more people
Speaker 1: could get a COVID. But if the vaccine keeps you
Speaker 1: from getting severely ill, keeps you out of the hospital,
Speaker 1: that to me is a win. So let's just show
Speaker 1: me get COVID and you feel bad for a week,
Speaker 1: but you're not hospitalized. That's a good outcome. And remember,
Speaker 1: no vaccine is of a full proof, as I said earlier,
Speaker 1: So I think that we deal with that is a
Speaker 1: circumstance acause but I would not get orderly worried about it.
Speaker 1: But I would be cautious. All right, We gotta talk
Speaker 1: about your memoir. It's called After the Roof Caved in
Speaker 1: an immigrants journey from Ireland to America and coming up
Speaker 1: on March eleven, So you're gonna be doing a live
Speaker 1: reading of it from the book review in Huntington, Long Island.
Speaker 1: I know the book review. It is an incredible bookstore
Speaker 1: and they feature the best writers. That's going to be
Speaker 1: at seven pm. You're going to be interviewed by I
Speaker 1: believe is it, Neil O'Dowd, Neil Okay. So tell us
Speaker 1: about this within person. You know, it would be nice
Speaker 1: to be in person. I know, I know that's the
Speaker 1: way the world is. Tell us about this book, well,
Speaker 1: I you know, it's an Immergrant story and it basically
Speaker 1: is a story about what that everything is possible. And
Speaker 1: this is the message I'm trying to convey to people,
Speaker 1: including as the younger people and many employees here that
Speaker 1: I respective of the circumstances you grow up in, it
Speaker 1: should never limit your potential of what you would try
Speaker 1: to achieve. I grew up in severe poverty. I left
Speaker 1: home when I was young. I was sixteen. When I
Speaker 1: left home, I was the oldest. I lived in a
Speaker 1: home that actually the reason for the for the name
Speaker 1: of the book. As the roof caved in with the whole.
Speaker 1: The roof of the house fell down onest twice. We
Speaker 1: had not running water, no bathrooms, no heat, and no electricity, etcetera.
Speaker 1: And it was it was a tough environment. But on
Speaker 1: the other hand, it was you know, it motivates you
Speaker 1: to do better with your life. And so the book
Speaker 1: is the story I you know, I kept getting pressure
Speaker 1: from a lot of people to write it. I declined
Speaker 1: for many many years, and then one I stopped it.
Speaker 1: Putting it together, it made sense, and I'm I hope
Speaker 1: it offers a little bit of inspiration to people. It's
Speaker 1: a lot different than a lot of other immigrants stories.
Speaker 1: But the fact that I am doing what I am
Speaker 1: today given where I came from is to me. It
Speaker 1: just proves that if you're positive and you have a
Speaker 1: sense of optimism, and you walk hard, and you and
Speaker 1: and you know, you take advantage of what the United
Speaker 1: States offers to you, and you take risks. You know,
Speaker 1: the sky is the limit, So be upbeat and be positive.
Speaker 1: And that's what the book essentially is about. I love it.
Speaker 1: I love it brings very true and I feel like
Speaker 1: it's a perfect message. On this Monday, Michael Dowling, be
Speaker 1: Well President CEO at Northwell Health, on the phone from
Speaker 1: New Hyde Park, New York. His book After the Roof
Speaker 1: Caved In an immigrants Journey from Ireland to America. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick
Speaker 1: Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. We know this named
Speaker 1: CEO last September, technically though her first day on the job. Tim,
Speaker 1: we're talking about Jane Fraser. She's now in the CEO
Speaker 1: c running the third largest U S bank. We're talking
Speaker 1: about City Bank and getting right to work. So let's
Speaker 1: get into it with Jenny Serene, she's reporting about it
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Business Week, Finance reporter at Bloomberg News on
Speaker 1: the phone in New York City, joining us along with
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber. Joel, I feel like
Speaker 1: there's so much going on when it comes to the
Speaker 1: big Wall Street banks. But this is a big deal.
Speaker 1: Having a woman a top a major Wall Street firm
Speaker 1: big time, and it's been We've been talking about this
Speaker 1: story for for years, maybe even decades, about which bank
Speaker 1: is going to happen at Who's the woman who's going
Speaker 1: to crack the ceiling? And then we found out, you know,
Speaker 1: obviously a couple of months ago that it was going
Speaker 1: to be Jane Fraser at City. And I'm really curious Jenny,
Speaker 1: Like we knew a lot of things that she was
Speaker 1: gonna face and have to deal with. And I want
Speaker 1: to talk about that, But then I also just want
Speaker 1: to talk about day one because she's come out and
Speaker 1: actually really already sort of caught attention. And what was
Speaker 1: the number one thing she came out of the gate with. Yeah,
Speaker 1: her very first announcement on her first day at CEO
Speaker 1: was that INANC is going to achieve net zero emissions
Speaker 1: by and so she she announced that to employees and
Speaker 1: to the broader public today, And I think it's really
Speaker 1: her trying to put her stamp on this issue and
Speaker 1: and really say, this is going to be what matters
Speaker 1: to me and what matters to city? What are what
Speaker 1: are her other priorities right now? I mean, she's got
Speaker 1: to be hitting the ground running today. What's on her
Speaker 1: to do list? Yeah? Well, so I think she started
Speaker 1: the day actually with kind of a virtual town hall, which, um,
Speaker 1: you know that's part of what's so weird about this
Speaker 1: time is it feels almost anticlimactic to have, you know,
Speaker 1: the first female CEO of a major US bank and
Speaker 1: she's taking over and it's all being done virtually. But
Speaker 1: you know, I think more broadly, she's got a lot
Speaker 1: on her plate in terms of the regulatory homework that
Speaker 1: the O c C and the FED assigned them last year.
Speaker 1: She's got to overhaul all of their internal technology and controls. UM.
Speaker 1: That's work that's going to take years, costs a lot
Speaker 1: of money, and require them to know, hire thousands of
Speaker 1: people for this effort. So I think that's really the
Speaker 1: big thing on her plate right now. Well, and it's
Speaker 1: interesting you write this in your reporting that she has
Speaker 1: said that City Group Strategy doesn't need a massive overhaul
Speaker 1: UM and she's just going to kind of do it
Speaker 1: as she goes along. So do you buy that? You know,
Speaker 1: I think it's I think what she wants is really
Speaker 1: UM to kind of stick with their knitting in terms
Speaker 1: of the things that they're really good at. And because
Speaker 1: you know, they've got a lot on their plate in
Speaker 1: terms of this regulatory work, they've got to find other
Speaker 1: ways to cut UM. They've got really big, ambitious targets
Speaker 1: for getting their returns up to what Jopy Morgan and
Speaker 1: Bank of America look like. So, yeah, she's going to
Speaker 1: be making some changes, but I think what she's been
Speaker 1: trying to communicate is that it's not going to look
Speaker 1: vastly different. There just me, but might be some tweaking
Speaker 1: on the on the margins. There's also, um, this this
Speaker 1: blooper as I've been referring to it, Jenny, which was
Speaker 1: the money that got wired from city to creditors and
Speaker 1: then they managed to get some of it claw Claude
Speaker 1: back but not others. They lie a court case recently
Speaker 1: about this, Um no doubt underway. The appeal is underway.
Speaker 1: But but how much of that is an impediment to
Speaker 1: sort of her her first um uh, you know you're
Speaker 1: on the job. Yeah, I mean, I think that's just
Speaker 1: a really embarrassing example of the types of work that
Speaker 1: they have to get done in order to just how
Speaker 1: to sign their regulators. So I think, you know, regulators
Speaker 1: have been stepping around and you know, really disappointed with
Speaker 1: the bank for a long time now, and this rev
Speaker 1: line issue where they accidentally sent out nearly a billion
Speaker 1: dollars just kind of shows exactly what these regulators were
Speaker 1: talking about and exactly what they want City Group to fix.
Speaker 1: So I think it's kind of emblematic of really deeper
Speaker 1: issues that city has to fix. And we'll have to
Speaker 1: hire lots of people and you know, change lots of
Speaker 1: executives around probably and and really dig in and fix
Speaker 1: this up. Um. And she said, and she's committed to
Speaker 1: doing that. Um. So when is where is um She's
Speaker 1: going to look for strategy to gross Jenny Where where's
Speaker 1: the Jane Fraser uh future? What is that going to
Speaker 1: look like? So one of the other big things she's
Speaker 1: done in recent weeks was she actually collapsed their private
Speaker 1: banking arm and their wealth management arm and so that
Speaker 1: is now City Global Wealth. And I think they're really
Speaker 1: hoping that this is where they can find growth. You know,
Speaker 1: you don't really think of City as a wealth shop.
Speaker 1: They um got out of that business during the crisis
Speaker 1: and really haven't made any big parades. And then you
Speaker 1: see folks like Morgan Stanley kind of you know, really
Speaker 1: making lots of money there. So I think they're trying
Speaker 1: to kind of, um take a little tab out of
Speaker 1: a bank like Morgan Stanley's book, and we'll see if
Speaker 1: they're successful. Um. But she's also she's got a lot
Speaker 1: of distractions when it comes to really growing that business.
Speaker 1: So it'll it'll be interesting to watch. Hey, Jenny, before
Speaker 1: you go, we gotta ask you about your other story,
Speaker 1: something that's definitely caught our attention. Your story kicks off
Speaker 1: with Walmart just took a step closer to being JP
Speaker 1: Morgan chases biggest Nightmare. There's so much going on with
Speaker 1: the big banks. I feel like, right now, what do
Speaker 1: we need to know? Just got about forty five seconds here. Yeah, Walmart,
Speaker 1: you know, they just um in January announced that they're
Speaker 1: going to start this outside financial technology startups and really
Speaker 1: have been tight lets since then about what that's going
Speaker 1: to look like. Um. And then this weekend we found
Speaker 1: out if they've hired two senior guys from Goldman to
Speaker 1: come in and run it. So definitely I wanted to
Speaker 1: watch and and we'll be really interesting to see what
Speaker 1: they do with it. Yeah. Absolutely, Um, good stuff. Thank
Speaker 1: you so much. Jenny Seraine, finance reporter at Bloomberg News
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City. Check out all
Speaker 1: of her reporting and of course our thanks to Joe
Speaker 1: Webber editor Bloomberg Business Week on the remote access from Brooklyn.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So ten years ago,
Speaker 1: one of our most beloved franchises, Bloomberg TV, kicked off,
Speaker 1: initially known as Bloomberg West, later as Bloomberg Technology, steered
Speaker 1: and shepherded by Bloomberg's Emily Shang, and a lot has
Speaker 1: happened in the past decade. We've seen early trends that
Speaker 1: took off, some things that didn't so much. So we
Speaker 1: thought we'd take a look back at the past decade. Tim.
Speaker 1: We'll joining us now is Emily Chang. She's the host
Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Technology on a Bloomberg Television. Joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from San Francisco. Emily, ten years wow, ten years.
Speaker 1: I have spent the last week two weeks laughing and
Speaker 1: crying as I've been going through all foot did and Carol,
Speaker 1: I'm so happy to be here with you because I
Speaker 1: have never anchored before. When I came to Bloomberg and
Speaker 1: you showed me the ropes and I still used the
Speaker 1: terminal command would be on that very first day so
Speaker 1: thank you, well, congratulations because I've always loved listening to
Speaker 1: your interviews and you're inside and you just took us
Speaker 1: to places, you know, of trends that we now all
Speaker 1: take for granted today and also uncovered things that you were,
Speaker 1: you know, you would be skeptical about because you're like, well,
Speaker 1: wait a minute, this really going to play out? So
Speaker 1: what what really stands out for you in terms of
Speaker 1: the past ten years. My goodness, it is so hard
Speaker 1: to boil it down. When the show launched, it was February. Um,
Speaker 1: Steve Jobs was still alive. He died later that year.
Speaker 1: Tim Cook became CEO, and since then the iPhone has
Speaker 1: leaked ten generations. That's just one thing. Um. Amazon is
Speaker 1: probably the biggest value creation story of the last decade,
Speaker 1: with the e commerce business exploding, the cloud exploding, Alexa
Speaker 1: now being part of the furniture. Also, there's a lot
Speaker 1: of things that didn't work out, Like you know, we
Speaker 1: went back, we saw some old footage of me wearing
Speaker 1: Google glass that never really became a thing, snaps spectacles, um.
Speaker 1: And of course there's Tesla, which I think has taken
Speaker 1: a lot of people by surprise, and and and a
Speaker 1: good surprise if you're thinking about what it means for
Speaker 1: the planet. I just have to say, for those who
Speaker 1: are watching our show right now on YouTube, they got
Speaker 1: to see you put on those those spectacles. They looked
Speaker 1: kind of cute, kiddo. I'm just gonna say, yeah, you know,
Speaker 1: I thought that they like's not bad. It's a pretty stylus.
Speaker 1: It's a shame they didn't work out. But you know,
Speaker 1: and I'm not counting a r or virtual blog is out.
Speaker 1: I think maybe they just came a little too soon,
Speaker 1: and uh, somebody else may figure out the right form
Speaker 1: factor in the next decade. So Emily, I'm gonna ask
Speaker 1: you to put on your your predictor hat and really
Speaker 1: think about based on what you're thinking about right now,
Speaker 1: the people you're talking to right now, what is it
Speaker 1: that that we're talking about when we're sitting together in
Speaker 1: ten years ten years from now. So it's almost impossible
Speaker 1: to predict how much technology will change in the next decade,
Speaker 1: except to know that it will change faster than we think.
Speaker 1: One thing is for sure, AI will be a much
Speaker 1: bigger part of the conversation. We can't know for sure
Speaker 1: how it will change our lives or make our lives different,
Speaker 1: but we can be sure that our lives will be
Speaker 1: very different as a result machine learning. All of these companies, UM,
Speaker 1: every company is going to be incorporating new technologies into
Speaker 1: their products. UM. I think it'll be interesting to see
Speaker 1: if you know, the four or five major tech companies
Speaker 1: UM still exist as they are today, where they're all
Speaker 1: facing UM antitrust scrutiny. UM, not just from the US
Speaker 1: government but governments around the world. Do Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,
Speaker 1: Microsoft all existing ten years as they do today? How
Speaker 1: are they different? UM? How much our acquisitions in big
Speaker 1: field part of the conversation? And who are the new innovators?
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm watching UM, TikTok and next Door. I
Speaker 1: actually interviewed Reid Hoffman. You're going to see a clip
Speaker 1: of that interview on the show later today. UM, the
Speaker 1: co founder of Lincoln He think he thinks we're going
Speaker 1: to have an explosion of social platforms, many social platforms,
Speaker 1: not just one obvious go to Hey, I gotta ask
Speaker 1: you because you're also the author of Brotopia, breaking Up
Speaker 1: the Boys Club of Silicon Valley, and you really took
Speaker 1: a deep dive into why men were dominating the tech industry.
Speaker 1: And I do wonder to have have things changed at all?
Speaker 1: Is there more diversity? It's something we've talked about a
Speaker 1: lot in the past year because of the pandemic, the
Speaker 1: lack of diversity, uh in Silicon Valley. Is it changing, Carol?
Speaker 1: It is happening, The conversation is happening, but the numbers
Speaker 1: are not changing fast enough. I mean, just looking at
Speaker 1: a recent statistic that we're going to bring up on
Speaker 1: the show today, women make up about twelve of decision
Speaker 1: makers at venture capital firms. So these are the people
Speaker 1: who are deciding where the money goes, what gets a
Speaker 1: chance to be the next Google or Facebook or Apple.
Speaker 1: Women founded startups are only getting about of the funding.
Speaker 1: I mean, more starts of population. Come on, I know exactly.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see where we are a decade from
Speaker 1: now because there is motivation, there are people who care.
Speaker 1: There are more people fighting about this and talking about
Speaker 1: this than certainly there were a decade ago. And I
Speaker 1: believe that the most visionary people in the most visionary
Speaker 1: industry in the world can do this. Hey, can I
Speaker 1: can I say one more thing? In ten years? You've
Speaker 1: had a few kids, right, just as you um to
Speaker 1: show is my first baby. But believe it or not,
Speaker 1: I've had four children in the last next and it's
Speaker 1: kind of mind blowing to think that. Um yeah, I was,
Speaker 1: you know, building a show and becoming a mom all
Speaker 1: at the time and looking to people like you who
Speaker 1: are working moms who you know have figured it out
Speaker 1: and you know, I know it's a constant balancing act.
Speaker 1: But um, you know, I'm I'm really proud and I'm
Speaker 1: always looking for more advice. So Carol, find out how
Speaker 1: you still look so good. I always loving. We're together
Speaker 1: and we huddle, but I'm in awe. You have shown
Speaker 1: how you can do it all and it isn't always easy,
Speaker 1: but uh, it's just great stuff. Kiddout and looking forward
Speaker 1: to the next ten years. Emily Chang check her out
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Technology. That's today at five pm Wall Street
Speaker 1: Time on Bloomberg Television. She has seen so much much
Speaker 1: and always talking to the people who are at the
Speaker 1: cutting edge. She has interviewed everybody, I mean anyone who's
Speaker 1: anybody in Silicon Valley. It's amazing and she's really nice
Speaker 1: to journal now. But you let me drive no no,
Speaker 1: no home, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel I
Speaker 1: want to drive, just drive. Questions Drying, He's the drive
Speaker 1: to the globe. Give me thanks well, Drying us down
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Now we just got about eleven minutes
Speaker 1: left in today's trading session. Carol Mass along with Tim
Speaker 1: Stenovik in our Interactive Broker's studio. I want to welcome
Speaker 1: Dave down Obedient. He is Chief Investment Officer of CIBC
Speaker 1: Private Wealth Management, seventy four billion in assets under management,
Speaker 1: with us once again on the phone from Baltimore. Dave,
Speaker 1: how are you. I'm doing well, How are you doing okay?
Speaker 1: Different day, feels like a different tone this week. Market volatility,
Speaker 1: you know, that's kind of the norm. We're supposed to
Speaker 1: have volatility in the markets. What does the recent trade
Speaker 1: and then particular equity versus what we saw on the
Speaker 1: bond market, what does it say to you? Well, I
Speaker 1: think you always look to the treasury market as a
Speaker 1: signal about what equity investors are most worried about, and
Speaker 1: so you know, we saw this significant rise and yields
Speaker 1: really going back to the Georgia Senate election basis points,
Speaker 1: and you know what that says, I think is that
Speaker 1: equity investors are no longer first and foremost worried about
Speaker 1: the pandemic and a double dipercession. They're more worried about
Speaker 1: economic overheating, higher inflation, and higher borrowing costs. So that's
Speaker 1: a pretty significant, uh you know change, And what's what's
Speaker 1: the top the wall of worry? And I think that
Speaker 1: the bond market and inflation statistics are going to get
Speaker 1: much much, much more attention really all this year suppared
Speaker 1: to recent years. Well so, so, what what is the
Speaker 1: signal that you think the bond market is sending. Is
Speaker 1: it sending one about inflation or is it sending one
Speaker 1: about optimism about the economy. Well, I think it's beginning
Speaker 1: to send some messages on inflation because, uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I think the the likelihood now that we're going to
Speaker 1: see this very significant one point nine trillion or something
Speaker 1: close to its relief package pass um. You know, you
Speaker 1: have to when when you look at the impact of
Speaker 1: the COVID package that just passed at the end of December,
Speaker 1: that already by January, and it had this incredible adrenaline
Speaker 1: rush for disposable income and pushing the savings right over.
Speaker 1: I think investors, bond and equity investors are thinking, well,
Speaker 1: what happens if you more than double the size those
Speaker 1: direct to household payments. What happens when you extend an
Speaker 1: increase the supplemental unemployment benefits? What happens when you extend
Speaker 1: more interest free money to businesses? And this idea that
Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe we haven't quite priced in just
Speaker 1: how strong the economy is going to be. And and
Speaker 1: I think it's you know, that sort of overheating risk
Speaker 1: is going to the sort of a periodic um risk.
Speaker 1: That's equity and bond investors are gonna have to deal with,
Speaker 1: you know, all year long. Really, we still have, though
Speaker 1: a pretty steep unemployment rate, and we still have a
Speaker 1: lot of workers in terms of underemployment, it's still pretty steep.
Speaker 1: So does that kind of keep things in check? I
Speaker 1: think it ultimately does. I don't think we're at the
Speaker 1: beginning of the next great inflation wave, you know, reducts
Speaker 1: of the seventies. I think we're a ways away from
Speaker 1: that for the reasons you mentioned. We still have a
Speaker 1: significant output gap. But you look over the next few
Speaker 1: months and I think there are some data points that
Speaker 1: investors are going to have to deal with and and
Speaker 1: and that the Fed even may eventually be be concerned
Speaker 1: about we we know that we had three deflation every
Speaker 1: months right when when COVID hit last year, They're gonna
Speaker 1: lap out of the year of a year comparison. So
Speaker 1: by the third quarter, most inflation indicators will probably have
Speaker 1: a have a to handle. Um. If you look at
Speaker 1: the I s M report this morning, not just showing
Speaker 1: overall strong activity in the manufacturing sector, but the prices
Speaker 1: paid component was the highest it's been since two thousand
Speaker 1: and eight, and vendor deliveries are stringing way out out
Speaker 1: the longest they've been since two thousand four and so UM.
Speaker 1: You know, we know that looking at the tips of
Speaker 1: markets and inflationary expectations have been climbing higher. But there's
Speaker 1: indications on main street to that inflation expectations of climbing.
Speaker 1: The University of Michigan sentiment survey that came out last
Speaker 1: week UM showed that this year consumers expect the highest
Speaker 1: rate of inflation in in over seven years. So UM,
Speaker 1: I think we are going to have to You know,
Speaker 1: the feed is sort of branded this as transitory. UM,
Speaker 1: I think it's more significant than that. So, given given
Speaker 1: these thoughts, about inflation, about the bond market, Dave, Um,
Speaker 1: how are you thinking about asset allocation for your customers
Speaker 1: right now? For your clients, yeah, I would say, um,
Speaker 1: you know, underweight core fixed income? Uh? We are you
Speaker 1: coming into the year with the tenure Treasury would would
Speaker 1: spend most of the year between one and a half
Speaker 1: and two percent. I still think that's right. So there's
Speaker 1: an an upward bias to yield. UM. Some things we've
Speaker 1: recommended as sort of supplementary income have been floating rate debt,
Speaker 1: and they preferred securities on the equity markets were roughly
Speaker 1: equal weight. It's a it's a balance between some of
Speaker 1: those interest rate risks that I mentioned, but on the
Speaker 1: other side of the fact that we're going to have
Speaker 1: at least a increase in corporate earnings, so we think
Speaker 1: that that equities are still attractive relative to UH to bond. Hey, Dave,
Speaker 1: one thing I want to ask you, and I'm forgiving.
Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking back to something Tim and I
Speaker 1: were just talking about Elizabeth Warren talking about a wealth
Speaker 1: tax um UH and talking about it could raise something
Speaker 1: like three chillion dollars over over a decade. I was
Speaker 1: talking about two being at milk in just a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago, and there are a lot of wealthy
Speaker 1: individuals who said, Yeah, it's time for us to pay
Speaker 1: a little bit more taxes. Is that even likely? And
Speaker 1: do you think it's a good or bad idea? UM?
Speaker 1: I think the wealth tax is not a very workable
Speaker 1: idea when you look at the history of it in
Speaker 1: other countries. Very hard to collect, very hard to measure.
Speaker 1: That's why I think it won't happen. But I do
Speaker 1: think that we're going to see some tax increases on
Speaker 1: corporations and upper income individuals through more conventional rate means
Speaker 1: that the corporate tax rate, the top marginal tax bracket,
Speaker 1: maybe on capital gains more likely to be focused than
Speaker 1: this year. Wow. I wonder about back to the portfolio
Speaker 1: construction and thinking about what your clients are saying right now, Um,
Speaker 1: what is the most common question that you're you're answering,
Speaker 1: that you're that you're fielding. The most common question is
Speaker 1: one that nobody in Washington seems to be asking, which
Speaker 1: is something like what about the deficit? What about the
Speaker 1: national debt? And kind of why does nobody seem to care? Uh,
Speaker 1: get that question constantly from from clients. And it's a
Speaker 1: really good question. What's your answer. The short answer to
Speaker 1: it is a lot of people will care just not now.
Speaker 1: As long as you have the central Bank as a massive,
Speaker 1: massive buyer of treasury securities, as long as you have
Speaker 1: a still relatively low um inflation rate and low interest cost.
Speaker 1: It's a it's a backburner issue right now, not a
Speaker 1: front burner issue, right And I think many would argue
Speaker 1: or counter with saying, listen, it's more important that we
Speaker 1: do everything and anything to shore up the economy because
Speaker 1: if we let the economy sink to a point where
Speaker 1: it's going to be even tougher to get on the
Speaker 1: other side. Um, that's a bigger problem potentially. Yeah. I
Speaker 1: mean what you hear right now in Washington is the
Speaker 1: risk is going too small on this relief package, like
Speaker 1: in the lessons from two eight, because we talk about
Speaker 1: the deeper you fall, although we are coming out of
Speaker 1: it already, but you want to make sure you don't
Speaker 1: slip back in. All right, we've just got about three
Speaker 1: and a half minutes in the trading session or thanks
Speaker 1: to Dave Donna Beede and chief Investment Officer at CIBC
Speaker 1: Private Wealth Management with US from Baltimore. Thanks for listening
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to
Speaker 1: our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio
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