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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance,

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Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business

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Speaker 1: Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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Speaker 1: analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can

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Speaker 1: download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. Well. J and J's COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen vaccine could protect millions more Americans from contracting the

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Speaker 1: coronavirus their vaccine, as we know, given emergency youth authorization

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Speaker 1: by US regulators. That happened over the weekend. While the

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Speaker 1: company Tim we know out in full force today talking

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Speaker 1: about the rollout. In fact, our team over on Bloomberg Television,

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Speaker 1: David Weston catching up with J and J CEO Alex

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Speaker 1: Gorski about that rollout. Check it out. We've got a safe,

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Speaker 1: We've got an effective, saying little shot vaccine that can

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Speaker 1: be refrigerated using very standard procedures, and that's going to

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Speaker 1: be available right here in the United States the tune

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Speaker 1: of a hundred million doses by June this year, all right,

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Speaker 1: and that was Alex Gorski, Jane Jay's CEO. So let's

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Speaker 1: get some thoughts on that latest COVID vaccine, our daily

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Speaker 1: check on the virus. Yeah, Michael Dowling as President and

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Speaker 1: CEO of north Well Health. He joins us on the

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Speaker 1: phone from New Hyde Park, New York. Hey, Michael, great

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Speaker 1: to have you back on the show. How are you doing.

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Speaker 1: I'm doing well. Thank you so much, appreciate it. What

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Speaker 1: are you seeing? What are you seeing across across north

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Speaker 1: Well Health right now when it comes to the virus,

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Speaker 1: especially with regard to this Jane, janeuse what do you

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Speaker 1: make of it? The vis itself? The numbers of decreasing

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Speaker 1: now today have about nine hundred COVID patients about three

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Speaker 1: weeks ago I found so the number is dropping and

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Speaker 1: the positivity in the region is dropping. So the signs

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Speaker 1: are all good. And the new gang vaccine, of course,

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Speaker 1: is a huge step forward, and we're expecting but I

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Speaker 1: have been told that we may get some of the

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Speaker 1: J vaccine later this week. The state is going to

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Speaker 1: get a couple hundred thousands more doses each week from

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Speaker 1: now on, So that just increases the supply. Because the

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Speaker 1: supply has been the biggest issue over the last number

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Speaker 1: of weeks and months that this infrastructure is there to

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Speaker 1: do the vaccination, the supply has been the problem. And

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Speaker 1: with Jane J is a one dose vaccine, it is

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Speaker 1: just an unbelievable step forward. How do you go ahead?

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Speaker 1: How do you determine if you let's say you have

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Speaker 1: because you've already been administering vaccine, Michael, If if you

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Speaker 1: do have let's say Fiser vaccine and the Derna vaccine

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Speaker 1: and j J vaccine, how do you determine who gets

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Speaker 1: what vaccine? Well, that US criteria that are being developed,

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Speaker 1: which we're getting about what the priorities are for for

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Speaker 1: the for the j J vaccine, I think it's for

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Speaker 1: people over age six or five. I think it's for

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Speaker 1: the younger people would be a priority at the beginning,

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Speaker 1: anybody from I believe a eighteen to six to sixty

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Speaker 1: five where I haven't seen the definitive final recommendations yet

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Speaker 1: from CC from the CDC, but we'll wait for that

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Speaker 1: will wait for that directive from both the state and

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Speaker 1: the CDC. But whatever it is, it means more more

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Speaker 1: shots in Tiber's arms and that's the ultimate right now,

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Speaker 1: But there will be it sounds like um specifications for

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Speaker 1: each of the vaccine ultimately, Is that fair to say, Michael, Well,

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Speaker 1: I think it will become more generical of the time.

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Speaker 1: I think at the beginning, I think there'd be more prialitization.

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Speaker 1: My guess is that for people, you know, the older

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Speaker 1: worlder population might meet had the preference for the five

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Speaker 1: Madame and Indian or population for from the J and J.

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Speaker 1: But but I do think people there are so many

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Speaker 1: people climbing for a vaccine that once you have the

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Speaker 1: once you have to supply whatever vaccine, people will want

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Speaker 1: to take it. Right I know J vaccine is still

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Speaker 1: still seventy two efficacy, which is phenomenal. It's great, right exactly.

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Speaker 1: What's interesting now, Michael, and listen, I don't want to

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Speaker 1: be like, you know, Tim and I joke were like

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Speaker 1: I'll take anyone right now. Um. But complicating matters is

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Speaker 1: j J is also testing a two shot version of

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Speaker 1: the vaccine, so it does suggest that it thinks adding

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Speaker 1: a second shot could improve protection. And I think that's

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Speaker 1: where the public gets a little nervous. You're a medical professional,

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Speaker 1: you're working within this. How should we read something like that? Well,

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Speaker 1: I would say if, for example, the one doors vaccine

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Speaker 1: gives you, it gives you the seventy seventy percent efficacy

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Speaker 1: and it protects against severe illness and there's a very

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Speaker 1: few of cases and it gives you eighty six percent

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Speaker 1: efficacy in that regard, I think that's a win. What

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Speaker 1: you really want is to protect people from getting really

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Speaker 1: sick and to protect pet of them getting into the hospital.

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Speaker 1: So if you have a vaccine, just like the flu vaccine,

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Speaker 1: doesn't protect the university across the board, but it does

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Speaker 1: prevent you from getting really seriously ill. So it's a

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Speaker 1: win to have to be prevented from a severe illness

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Speaker 1: and keeping out of the hospital. And if any of

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Speaker 1: the vaccines do that, um, then I think that's again

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Speaker 1: a win win for the public. I do wonder to

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Speaker 1: what extent that the general public is focused on that

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Speaker 1: number S versus when it comes to m R and

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Speaker 1: a go ahead. I honestly don't think that they've spent

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Speaker 1: all the same will that been awful lot of attention.

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Speaker 1: But I think most people from when I am, when

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Speaker 1: I'm out there, they just want to vaccine. Well, can

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Speaker 1: I just tell you all that I want to be

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Speaker 1: sure that they don't really get Michael February survey found

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Speaker 1: only seven percent of people wanted a single dose vaccine,

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Speaker 1: compared with fifty eight percent who said they preferred two

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Speaker 1: doors series. This was UM a presentation Sunday to the

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Speaker 1: Centers for Disease Control UM and some others. So you know,

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Speaker 1: we've learned so much about creating a vaccine and about efficacy,

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Speaker 1: but at the same time, a little bit of knowledge

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Speaker 1: can be dangerous, yes, and you know you know recently

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Speaker 1: and I'll alwa was it um spozemic? And even I

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Speaker 1: think pies are basically indicating if I'm corrected, you know

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Speaker 1: that there is we protection even with the one dolls,

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Speaker 1: even though we're giving two dolls. Is I can tell

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Speaker 1: you if you want to expand the vaccination to the

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Speaker 1: public in general, just giving one dose across the board,

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Speaker 1: it just makes life so much easier. We can do

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Speaker 1: so much more and it will be a lot better

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Speaker 1: having everybody having a se protection against illness instead of

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Speaker 1: having a small number having So I just think that

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Speaker 1: the more the fact that we can do more people,

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Speaker 1: the better. So when you look out for the next

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Speaker 1: few months, at the next six months, at the rest

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Speaker 1: of the year, how do you see our world reopening.

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Speaker 1: What's the timeline that you're thinking about. I think that

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Speaker 1: it will be a slow process, be incremental. I think

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Speaker 1: we'll be in a pretty good situation by October November,

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Speaker 1: is my guest. Once we get everybody vaccinated, hopefully by

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Speaker 1: July August. You should see Tim's face. You should see

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Speaker 1: the two of us were just but but I think

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Speaker 1: we've got to be a little bit practical here because

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Speaker 1: we're going to be different. The economy is going to

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Speaker 1: come back in a different way. The use of technology

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Speaker 1: and the changing nature of work that has evolved as

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Speaker 1: a result of COVID is going to make everything different.

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Speaker 1: People now realize that they don't have to be coming

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Speaker 1: to the office every day to be effective and productive,

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Speaker 1: that they can be working remotely, and that's going to

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Speaker 1: affect every business that's just health care, about every single business.

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Speaker 1: And I do think the economic implications of COVID that

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Speaker 1: businesses that are will be less robust. Now I want

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Speaker 1: some businesses not coming back at all. That the economic

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Speaker 1: implications of COVID I think will even be more difficult

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Speaker 1: and more long terrent than actually dealing with COVID itself.

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Speaker 1: We had a big crisis for the past twel months.

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Speaker 1: By the way, the first COVID case that we received

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Speaker 1: that not well was a year ago tomorrow, and we've

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Speaker 1: seen a hundred and sixty COVID patients since that time.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's going to be it's going to

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Speaker 1: be incremental. It will be different every organization. Now, if

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Speaker 1: you're see of any organization, you've got to be sitting

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Speaker 1: back and saying, how do I transform? How do I

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Speaker 1: completely we think my business given the new circumstance. And

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Speaker 1: quite frankly, I also think some of I think that

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Speaker 1: some of this would be good because I do believe

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Speaker 1: that we will reconfigure our organizations in a better way

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Speaker 1: going forward based upon the lessons of the last year. Um.

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Speaker 1: So we'll have to be patient here. The economy will

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Speaker 1: stop to come back, and I think by the end

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Speaker 1: of the year we will be doing will be in

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Speaker 1: a pretty good place, I believe. Um Now, we we

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Speaker 1: can't get complacent at the moment because you've got these

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Speaker 1: variants out there, and you know you could get a surprise.

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Speaker 1: We're just hoping it doesn't happen, but you've gotta be

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Speaker 1: ready for if it does occur. But we're going to

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Speaker 1: be We're going to be different in the future. We're

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Speaker 1: not going back to pre COVID days the way it was. Hey, listen,

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about your book, but I do

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Speaker 1: want to ask you when you talk about variants, are

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Speaker 1: you even a little bit concerned that these variants will

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Speaker 1: create another big way for us? I know I don't

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Speaker 1: think so. I mean it does mean it could mean

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Speaker 1: that well, because the transmission is easier, that more people

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Speaker 1: could get a COVID. But if the vaccine keeps you

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Speaker 1: from getting severely ill, keeps you out of the hospital,

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Speaker 1: that to me is a win. So let's just show

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Speaker 1: me get COVID and you feel bad for a week,

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Speaker 1: but you're not hospitalized. That's a good outcome. And remember,

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Speaker 1: no vaccine is of a full proof, as I said earlier,

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Speaker 1: So I think that we deal with that is a

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Speaker 1: circumstance acause but I would not get orderly worried about it.

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Speaker 1: But I would be cautious. All right, We gotta talk

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Speaker 1: about your memoir. It's called After the Roof Caved in

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Speaker 1: an immigrants journey from Ireland to America and coming up

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Speaker 1: on March eleven, So you're gonna be doing a live

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Speaker 1: reading of it from the book review in Huntington, Long Island.

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Speaker 1: I know the book review. It is an incredible bookstore

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Speaker 1: and they feature the best writers. That's going to be

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Speaker 1: at seven pm. You're going to be interviewed by I

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Speaker 1: believe is it, Neil O'Dowd, Neil Okay. So tell us

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Speaker 1: about this within person. You know, it would be nice

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Speaker 1: to be in person. I know, I know that's the

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Speaker 1: way the world is. Tell us about this book, well,

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Speaker 1: I you know, it's an Immergrant story and it basically

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Speaker 1: is a story about what that everything is possible. And

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Speaker 1: this is the message I'm trying to convey to people,

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Speaker 1: including as the younger people and many employees here that

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Speaker 1: I respective of the circumstances you grow up in, it

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Speaker 1: should never limit your potential of what you would try

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Speaker 1: to achieve. I grew up in severe poverty. I left

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Speaker 1: home when I was young. I was sixteen. When I

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Speaker 1: left home, I was the oldest. I lived in a

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Speaker 1: home that actually the reason for the for the name

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Speaker 1: of the book. As the roof caved in with the whole.

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Speaker 1: The roof of the house fell down onest twice. We

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Speaker 1: had not running water, no bathrooms, no heat, and no electricity, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: And it was it was a tough environment. But on

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Speaker 1: the other hand, it was you know, it motivates you

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Speaker 1: to do better with your life. And so the book

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Speaker 1: is the story I you know, I kept getting pressure

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Speaker 1: from a lot of people to write it. I declined

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Speaker 1: for many many years, and then one I stopped it.

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Speaker 1: Putting it together, it made sense, and I'm I hope

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Speaker 1: it offers a little bit of inspiration to people. It's

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Speaker 1: a lot different than a lot of other immigrants stories.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that I am doing what I am

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Speaker 1: just proves that if you're positive and you have a

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Speaker 1: sense of optimism, and you walk hard, and you and

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Speaker 1: and you know, you take advantage of what the United

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Speaker 1: States offers to you, and you take risks. You know,

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Speaker 1: the sky is the limit, So be upbeat and be positive.

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Speaker 1: And that's what the book essentially is about. I love it.

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Speaker 1: I love it brings very true and I feel like

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Speaker 1: it's a perfect message. On this Monday, Michael Dowling, be

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Speaker 1: Well President CEO at Northwell Health, on the phone from

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Speaker 1: New Hyde Park, New York. His book After the Roof

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Speaker 1: Caved In an immigrants Journey from Ireland to America. This

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Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick

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Speaker 1: Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. We know this named

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Speaker 1: CEO last September, technically though her first day on the job. Tim,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about Jane Fraser. She's now in the CEO

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Speaker 1: c running the third largest U S bank. We're talking

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Speaker 1: about City Bank and getting right to work. So let's

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Speaker 1: get into it with Jenny Serene, she's reporting about it

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Business Week, Finance reporter at Bloomberg News on

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Speaker 1: the phone in New York City, joining us along with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Week editor Joel Webber. Joel, I feel like

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Speaker 1: there's so much going on when it comes to the

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Speaker 1: big Wall Street banks. But this is a big deal.

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Speaker 1: Having a woman a top a major Wall Street firm

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Speaker 1: big time, and it's been We've been talking about this

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Speaker 1: story for for years, maybe even decades, about which bank

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Speaker 1: is going to happen at Who's the woman who's going

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Speaker 1: to crack the ceiling? And then we found out, you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously a couple of months ago that it was going

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Speaker 1: to be Jane Fraser at City. And I'm really curious Jenny,

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Speaker 1: Like we knew a lot of things that she was

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Speaker 1: to talk about that, But then I also just want

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Speaker 1: to talk about day one because she's come out and

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Speaker 1: actually really already sort of caught attention. And what was

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Speaker 1: the number one thing she came out of the gate with. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: her very first announcement on her first day at CEO

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Speaker 1: was that INANC is going to achieve net zero emissions

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Speaker 1: by and so she she announced that to employees and

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Speaker 1: to the broader public today, And I think it's really

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Speaker 1: her trying to put her stamp on this issue and

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Speaker 1: to me and what matters to city? What are what

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Speaker 1: are her other priorities right now? I mean, she's got

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Speaker 1: to be hitting the ground running today. What's on her

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Speaker 1: to do list? Yeah? Well, so I think she started

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Speaker 1: the day actually with kind of a virtual town hall, which, um,

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Speaker 1: you know that's part of what's so weird about this

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Speaker 1: time is it feels almost anticlimactic to have, you know,

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Speaker 1: she's taking over and it's all being done virtually. But

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Speaker 1: you know, I think more broadly, she's got a lot

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Speaker 1: on her plate in terms of the regulatory homework that

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Speaker 1: the O c C and the FED assigned them last year.

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Speaker 1: She's got to overhaul all of their internal technology and controls. UM.

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Speaker 1: That's work that's going to take years, costs a lot

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Speaker 1: of money, and require them to know, hire thousands of

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Speaker 1: people for this effort. So I think that's really the

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Speaker 1: big thing on her plate right now. Well, and it's

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Speaker 1: interesting you write this in your reporting that she has

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Speaker 1: said that City Group Strategy doesn't need a massive overhaul

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Speaker 1: UM and she's just going to kind of do it

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Speaker 1: as she goes along. So do you buy that? You know,

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think what she wants is really

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Speaker 1: of the things that they're really good at. And because

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Speaker 1: you know, they've got a lot on their plate in

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Speaker 1: terms of this regulatory work, they've got to find other

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Speaker 1: ways to cut UM. They've got really big, ambitious targets

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Speaker 1: for getting their returns up to what Jopy Morgan and

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Speaker 1: Bank of America look like. So, yeah, she's going to

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Speaker 1: be making some changes, but I think what she's been

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Speaker 1: trying to communicate is that it's not going to look

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Speaker 1: vastly different. There just me, but might be some tweaking

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Speaker 1: on the on the margins. There's also, um, this this

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Speaker 1: blooper as I've been referring to it, Jenny, which was

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Speaker 1: the money that got wired from city to creditors and

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Speaker 1: then they managed to get some of it claw Claude

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Speaker 1: back but not others. They lie a court case recently

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Speaker 1: about this, Um no doubt underway. The appeal is underway.

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Speaker 1: But but how much of that is an impediment to

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Speaker 1: sort of her her first um uh, you know you're

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Speaker 1: on the job. Yeah, I mean, I think that's just

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Speaker 1: a really embarrassing example of the types of work that

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Speaker 1: they have to get done in order to just how

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Speaker 1: to sign their regulators. So I think, you know, regulators

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Speaker 1: have been stepping around and you know, really disappointed with

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Speaker 1: the bank for a long time now, and this rev

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Speaker 1: line issue where they accidentally sent out nearly a billion

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Speaker 1: dollars just kind of shows exactly what these regulators were

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Speaker 1: talking about and exactly what they want City Group to fix.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's kind of emblematic of really deeper

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Speaker 1: issues that city has to fix. And we'll have to

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Speaker 1: hire lots of people and you know, change lots of

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Speaker 1: executives around probably and and really dig in and fix

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Speaker 1: this up. Um. And she said, and she's committed to

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Speaker 1: doing that. Um. So when is where is um She's

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Speaker 1: going to look for strategy to gross Jenny Where where's

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Speaker 1: the Jane Fraser uh future? What is that going to

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Speaker 1: look like? So one of the other big things she's

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Speaker 1: done in recent weeks was she actually collapsed their private

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Speaker 1: banking arm and their wealth management arm and so that

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Speaker 1: is now City Global Wealth. And I think they're really

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Speaker 1: hoping that this is where they can find growth. You know,

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Speaker 1: you don't really think of City as a wealth shop.

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Speaker 1: They um got out of that business during the crisis

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Speaker 1: and really haven't made any big parades. And then you

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Speaker 1: see folks like Morgan Stanley kind of you know, really

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Speaker 1: making lots of money there. So I think they're trying

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Speaker 1: to kind of, um take a little tab out of

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Speaker 1: a bank like Morgan Stanley's book, and we'll see if

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Speaker 1: they're successful. Um. But she's also she's got a lot

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Speaker 1: of distractions when it comes to really growing that business.

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Speaker 1: So it'll it'll be interesting to watch. Hey, Jenny, before

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Speaker 1: you go, we gotta ask you about your other story,

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Speaker 1: something that's definitely caught our attention. Your story kicks off

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Speaker 1: with Walmart just took a step closer to being JP

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Speaker 1: Morgan chases biggest Nightmare. There's so much going on with

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Speaker 1: the big banks. I feel like, right now, what do

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Speaker 1: we need to know? Just got about forty five seconds here. Yeah, Walmart,

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Speaker 1: you know, they just um in January announced that they're

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Speaker 1: going to start this outside financial technology startups and really

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Speaker 1: have been tight lets since then about what that's going

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Speaker 1: to look like. Um. And then this weekend we found

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Speaker 1: out if they've hired two senior guys from Goldman to

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Speaker 1: come in and run it. So definitely I wanted to

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Speaker 1: watch and and we'll be really interesting to see what

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Speaker 1: they do with it. Yeah. Absolutely, Um, good stuff. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much. Jenny Seraine, finance reporter at Bloomberg News

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Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City. Check out all

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Speaker 1: of her reporting and of course our thanks to Joe

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Speaker 1: Webber editor Bloomberg Business Week on the remote access from Brooklyn.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Quick Takes Tim Stinovich from Bloomberg Radio. So ten years ago,

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Speaker 1: one of our most beloved franchises, Bloomberg TV, kicked off,

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Speaker 1: initially known as Bloomberg West, later as Bloomberg Technology, steered

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Speaker 1: and shepherded by Bloomberg's Emily Shang, and a lot has

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Speaker 1: happened in the past decade. We've seen early trends that

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Speaker 1: took off, some things that didn't so much. So we

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Speaker 1: thought we'd take a look back at the past decade. Tim.

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Speaker 1: We'll joining us now is Emily Chang. She's the host

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Speaker 1: of Bloomberg Technology on a Bloomberg Television. Joining us on

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Speaker 1: the phone from San Francisco. Emily, ten years wow, ten years.

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Speaker 1: I have spent the last week two weeks laughing and

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Speaker 1: crying as I've been going through all foot did and Carol,

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Speaker 1: I'm so happy to be here with you because I

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Speaker 1: have never anchored before. When I came to Bloomberg and

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Speaker 1: you showed me the ropes and I still used the

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Speaker 1: terminal command would be on that very first day so

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Speaker 1: thank you, well, congratulations because I've always loved listening to

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Speaker 1: your interviews and you're inside and you just took us

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Speaker 1: to places, you know, of trends that we now all

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Speaker 1: take for granted today and also uncovered things that you were,

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Speaker 1: you know, you would be skeptical about because you're like, well,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute, this really going to play out? So

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Speaker 1: what what really stands out for you in terms of

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Speaker 1: the past ten years. My goodness, it is so hard

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Speaker 1: to boil it down. When the show launched, it was February. Um,

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Speaker 1: Steve Jobs was still alive. He died later that year.

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Speaker 1: Tim Cook became CEO, and since then the iPhone has

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Speaker 1: leaked ten generations. That's just one thing. Um. Amazon is

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Speaker 1: probably the biggest value creation story of the last decade,

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Speaker 1: with the e commerce business exploding, the cloud exploding, Alexa

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Speaker 1: now being part of the furniture. Also, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of things that didn't work out, Like you know, we

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Speaker 1: went back, we saw some old footage of me wearing

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Speaker 1: Google glass that never really became a thing, snaps spectacles, um.

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Speaker 1: And of course there's Tesla, which I think has taken

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Speaker 1: a lot of people by surprise, and and and a

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Speaker 1: good surprise if you're thinking about what it means for

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Speaker 1: the planet. I just have to say, for those who

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Speaker 1: are watching our show right now on YouTube, they got

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Speaker 1: to see you put on those those spectacles. They looked

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Speaker 1: kind of cute, kiddo. I'm just gonna say, yeah, you know,

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Speaker 1: I thought that they like's not bad. It's a pretty stylus.

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Speaker 1: It's a shame they didn't work out. But you know,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not counting a r or virtual blog is out.

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Speaker 1: I think maybe they just came a little too soon,

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Speaker 1: and uh, somebody else may figure out the right form

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Speaker 1: factor in the next decade. So Emily, I'm gonna ask

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Speaker 1: you to put on your your predictor hat and really

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Speaker 1: think about based on what you're thinking about right now,

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Speaker 1: the people you're talking to right now, what is it

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Speaker 1: that that we're talking about when we're sitting together in

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Speaker 1: ten years ten years from now. So it's almost impossible

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Speaker 1: to predict how much technology will change in the next decade,

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Speaker 1: except to know that it will change faster than we think.

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Speaker 1: One thing is for sure, AI will be a much

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Speaker 1: bigger part of the conversation. We can't know for sure

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Speaker 1: how it will change our lives or make our lives different,

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Speaker 1: but we can be sure that our lives will be

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Speaker 1: very different as a result machine learning. All of these companies, UM,

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Speaker 1: every company is going to be incorporating new technologies into

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Speaker 1: their products. UM. I think it'll be interesting to see

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Speaker 1: if you know, the four or five major tech companies

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Speaker 1: UM still exist as they are today, where they're all

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Speaker 1: facing UM antitrust scrutiny. UM, not just from the US

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Speaker 1: government but governments around the world. Do Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Google,

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Speaker 1: Microsoft all existing ten years as they do today? How

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Speaker 1: are they different? UM? How much our acquisitions in big

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Speaker 1: field part of the conversation? And who are the new innovators?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I'm watching UM, TikTok and next Door. I

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Speaker 1: actually interviewed Reid Hoffman. You're going to see a clip

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Speaker 1: of that interview on the show later today. UM, the

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Speaker 1: co founder of Lincoln He think he thinks we're going

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Speaker 1: to have an explosion of social platforms, many social platforms,

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Speaker 1: not just one obvious go to Hey, I gotta ask

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Speaker 1: you because you're also the author of Brotopia, breaking Up

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Speaker 1: the Boys Club of Silicon Valley, and you really took

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Speaker 1: a deep dive into why men were dominating the tech industry.

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Speaker 1: And I do wonder to have have things changed at all?

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Speaker 1: Is there more diversity? It's something we've talked about a

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Speaker 1: lot in the past year because of the pandemic, the

431
00:21:56,280 --> 00:22:01,720
Speaker 1: lack of diversity, uh in Silicon Valley. Is it changing, Carol?

432
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 1: It is happening, The conversation is happening, but the numbers

433
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,199
Speaker 1: are not changing fast enough. I mean, just looking at

434
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: a recent statistic that we're going to bring up on

435
00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 1: the show today, women make up about twelve of decision

436
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 1: makers at venture capital firms. So these are the people

437
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: who are deciding where the money goes, what gets a

438
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,919
Speaker 1: chance to be the next Google or Facebook or Apple.

439
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:27,480
Speaker 1: Women founded startups are only getting about of the funding.

440
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: I mean, more starts of population. Come on, I know exactly.

441
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,520
Speaker 1: I'm excited to see where we are a decade from

442
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: now because there is motivation, there are people who care.

443
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 1: There are more people fighting about this and talking about

444
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:42,280
Speaker 1: this than certainly there were a decade ago. And I

445
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 1: believe that the most visionary people in the most visionary

446
00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: industry in the world can do this. Hey, can I

447
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 1: can I say one more thing? In ten years? You've

448
00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: had a few kids, right, just as you um to

449
00:22:56,600 --> 00:22:58,800
Speaker 1: show is my first baby. But believe it or not,

450
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 1: I've had four children in the last next and it's

451
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:07,119
Speaker 1: kind of mind blowing to think that. Um yeah, I was,

452
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 1: you know, building a show and becoming a mom all

453
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 1: at the time and looking to people like you who

454
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 1: are working moms who you know have figured it out

455
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: and you know, I know it's a constant balancing act.

456
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,400
Speaker 1: But um, you know, I'm I'm really proud and I'm

457
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: always looking for more advice. So Carol, find out how

458
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 1: you still look so good. I always loving. We're together

459
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: and we huddle, but I'm in awe. You have shown

460
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 1: how you can do it all and it isn't always easy,

461
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,560
Speaker 1: but uh, it's just great stuff. Kiddout and looking forward

462
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: to the next ten years. Emily Chang check her out

463
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Technology. That's today at five pm Wall Street

464
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 1: Time on Bloomberg Television. She has seen so much much

465
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: and always talking to the people who are at the

466
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: cutting edge. She has interviewed everybody, I mean anyone who's

467
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,960
Speaker 1: anybody in Silicon Valley. It's amazing and she's really nice

468
00:23:54,040 --> 00:24:01,960
Speaker 1: to journal now. But you let me drive no no,

469
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:08,080
Speaker 1: no home, honey, please, I'll do the riding drivel I

470
00:24:08,200 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 1: want to drive, just drive. Questions Drying, He's the drive

471
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 1: to the globe. Give me thanks well, Drying us down

472
00:24:28,480 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Now we just got about eleven minutes

473
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,719
Speaker 1: left in today's trading session. Carol Mass along with Tim

474
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: Stenovik in our Interactive Broker's studio. I want to welcome

475
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: Dave down Obedient. He is Chief Investment Officer of CIBC

476
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: Private Wealth Management, seventy four billion in assets under management,

477
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: with us once again on the phone from Baltimore. Dave,

478
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: how are you. I'm doing well, How are you doing okay?

479
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:53,680
Speaker 1: Different day, feels like a different tone this week. Market volatility,

480
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: you know, that's kind of the norm. We're supposed to

481
00:24:55,680 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: have volatility in the markets. What does the recent trade

482
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:01,800
Speaker 1: and then particular equity versus what we saw on the

483
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,800
Speaker 1: bond market, what does it say to you? Well, I

484
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: think you always look to the treasury market as a

485
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 1: signal about what equity investors are most worried about, and

486
00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: so you know, we saw this significant rise and yields

487
00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 1: really going back to the Georgia Senate election basis points,

488
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,320
Speaker 1: and you know what that says, I think is that

489
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 1: equity investors are no longer first and foremost worried about

490
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: the pandemic and a double dipercession. They're more worried about

491
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: economic overheating, higher inflation, and higher borrowing costs. So that's

492
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,720
Speaker 1: a pretty significant, uh you know change, And what's what's

493
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: the top the wall of worry? And I think that

494
00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 1: the bond market and inflation statistics are going to get

495
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:43,520
Speaker 1: much much, much more attention really all this year suppared

496
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 1: to recent years. Well so, so, what what is the

497
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: signal that you think the bond market is sending. Is

498
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: it sending one about inflation or is it sending one

499
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: about optimism about the economy. Well, I think it's beginning

500
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 1: to send some messages on inflation because, uh, you know,

501
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 1: I think the the likelihood now that we're going to

502
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: see this very significant one point nine trillion or something

503
00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: close to its relief package pass um. You know, you

504
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 1: have to when when you look at the impact of

505
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: the COVID package that just passed at the end of December,

506
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: that already by January, and it had this incredible adrenaline

507
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,959
Speaker 1: rush for disposable income and pushing the savings right over.

508
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,800
Speaker 1: I think investors, bond and equity investors are thinking, well,

509
00:26:24,840 --> 00:26:27,960
Speaker 1: what happens if you more than double the size those

510
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 1: direct to household payments. What happens when you extend an

511
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 1: increase the supplemental unemployment benefits? What happens when you extend

512
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:38,720
Speaker 1: more interest free money to businesses? And this idea that

513
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:41,840
Speaker 1: you know, maybe maybe we haven't quite priced in just

514
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 1: how strong the economy is going to be. And and

515
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 1: I think it's you know, that sort of overheating risk

516
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: is going to the sort of a periodic um risk.

517
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 1: That's equity and bond investors are gonna have to deal with,

518
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,400
Speaker 1: you know, all year long. Really, we still have, though

519
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: a pretty steep unemployment rate, and we still have a

520
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 1: lot of workers in terms of underemployment, it's still pretty steep.

521
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,560
Speaker 1: So does that kind of keep things in check? I

522
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: think it ultimately does. I don't think we're at the

523
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:18,160
Speaker 1: beginning of the next great inflation wave, you know, reducts

524
00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:20,239
Speaker 1: of the seventies. I think we're a ways away from

525
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 1: that for the reasons you mentioned. We still have a

526
00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: significant output gap. But you look over the next few

527
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: months and I think there are some data points that

528
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: investors are going to have to deal with and and

529
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: and that the Fed even may eventually be be concerned

530
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 1: about we we know that we had three deflation every

531
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: months right when when COVID hit last year, They're gonna

532
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,879
Speaker 1: lap out of the year of a year comparison. So

533
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: by the third quarter, most inflation indicators will probably have

534
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: a have a to handle. Um. If you look at

535
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,800
Speaker 1: the I s M report this morning, not just showing

536
00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 1: overall strong activity in the manufacturing sector, but the prices

537
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 1: paid component was the highest it's been since two thousand

538
00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 1: and eight, and vendor deliveries are stringing way out out

539
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 1: the longest they've been since two thousand four and so UM.

540
00:28:05,119 --> 00:28:07,159
Speaker 1: You know, we know that looking at the tips of

541
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: markets and inflationary expectations have been climbing higher. But there's

542
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:15,080
Speaker 1: indications on main street to that inflation expectations of climbing.

543
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:17,640
Speaker 1: The University of Michigan sentiment survey that came out last

544
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: week UM showed that this year consumers expect the highest

545
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 1: rate of inflation in in over seven years. So UM,

546
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 1: I think we are going to have to You know,

547
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: the feed is sort of branded this as transitory. UM,

548
00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 1: I think it's more significant than that. So, given given

549
00:28:34,920 --> 00:28:38,480
Speaker 1: these thoughts, about inflation, about the bond market, Dave, Um,

550
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: how are you thinking about asset allocation for your customers

551
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 1: right now? For your clients, yeah, I would say, um,

552
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: you know, underweight core fixed income? Uh? We are you

553
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,840
Speaker 1: coming into the year with the tenure Treasury would would

554
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 1: spend most of the year between one and a half

555
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: and two percent. I still think that's right. So there's

556
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 1: an an upward bias to yield. UM. Some things we've

557
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: recommended as sort of supplementary income have been floating rate debt,

558
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:07,560
Speaker 1: and they preferred securities on the equity markets were roughly

559
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,640
Speaker 1: equal weight. It's a it's a balance between some of

560
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: those interest rate risks that I mentioned, but on the

561
00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: other side of the fact that we're going to have

562
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 1: at least a increase in corporate earnings, so we think

563
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:23,400
Speaker 1: that that equities are still attractive relative to UH to bond. Hey, Dave,

564
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 1: one thing I want to ask you, and I'm forgiving.

565
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking back to something Tim and I

566
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: were just talking about Elizabeth Warren talking about a wealth

567
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 1: tax um UH and talking about it could raise something

568
00:29:35,880 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: like three chillion dollars over over a decade. I was

569
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: talking about two being at milk in just a couple

570
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:42,080
Speaker 1: of years ago, and there are a lot of wealthy

571
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: individuals who said, Yeah, it's time for us to pay

572
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 1: a little bit more taxes. Is that even likely? And

573
00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 1: do you think it's a good or bad idea? UM?

574
00:29:49,320 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 1: I think the wealth tax is not a very workable

575
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:53,200
Speaker 1: idea when you look at the history of it in

576
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,000
Speaker 1: other countries. Very hard to collect, very hard to measure.

577
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 1: That's why I think it won't happen. But I do

578
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 1: think that we're going to see some tax increases on

579
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: corporations and upper income individuals through more conventional rate means

580
00:30:06,240 --> 00:30:09,240
Speaker 1: that the corporate tax rate, the top marginal tax bracket,

581
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 1: maybe on capital gains more likely to be focused than

582
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: this year. Wow. I wonder about back to the portfolio

583
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: construction and thinking about what your clients are saying right now, Um,

584
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 1: what is the most common question that you're you're answering,

585
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:28,280
Speaker 1: that you're that you're fielding. The most common question is

586
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: one that nobody in Washington seems to be asking, which

587
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: is something like what about the deficit? What about the

588
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: national debt? And kind of why does nobody seem to care? Uh,

589
00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,320
Speaker 1: get that question constantly from from clients. And it's a

590
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,880
Speaker 1: really good question. What's your answer. The short answer to

591
00:30:45,000 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: it is a lot of people will care just not now.

592
00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: As long as you have the central Bank as a massive,

593
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: massive buyer of treasury securities, as long as you have

594
00:30:56,440 --> 00:31:01,680
Speaker 1: a still relatively low um inflation rate and low interest cost.

595
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: It's a it's a backburner issue right now, not a

596
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 1: front burner issue, right And I think many would argue

597
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 1: or counter with saying, listen, it's more important that we

598
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 1: do everything and anything to shore up the economy because

599
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: if we let the economy sink to a point where

600
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: it's going to be even tougher to get on the

601
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: other side. Um, that's a bigger problem potentially. Yeah. I

602
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 1: mean what you hear right now in Washington is the

603
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,880
Speaker 1: risk is going too small on this relief package, like

604
00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 1: in the lessons from two eight, because we talk about

605
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 1: the deeper you fall, although we are coming out of

606
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,280
Speaker 1: it already, but you want to make sure you don't

607
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:36,440
Speaker 1: slip back in. All right, we've just got about three

608
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,520
Speaker 1: and a half minutes in the trading session or thanks

609
00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 1: to Dave Donna Beede and chief Investment Officer at CIBC

610
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: Private Wealth Management with US from Baltimore. Thanks for listening

611
00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

612
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 1: or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

613
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: our radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

614
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: or watch us on YouTube. Starch to Bloomberg Global News

615
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:01,239
Speaker 1: I SA