WEBVTT - Chuck's Commentary - Incumbents Will STRUGGLE In Upcoming Elections + Ask Chuck 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:08.680 I figured it might be a good opportunity for me 0:00:08.800 --> 0:00:12.280 to sort of give you how I'm watching all of 0:00:12.320 --> 0:00:15.920 these campaign cycles, develop campaign this calendar year, campaign twenty 0:00:15.960 --> 0:00:22.200 twenty five, what we think we're learning nationally about what's 0:00:22.280 --> 0:00:26.159 going on directionally with the Democratic Party Republican Party? Is 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:29.400 Trump a drag? If so, how much that is? I 0:00:29.440 --> 0:00:32.000 think you have to ask both questions there. How do 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:33.800 things look in twenty twenty six? So I just want 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.880 to update. I know I do. I try to once 0:00:35.920 --> 0:00:39.440 a week do sort of updates and key developments, but 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.159 this is more of a bigger picture, and I think 0:00:42.159 --> 0:00:45.760 we're at an interesting I want you to watch for 0:00:45.800 --> 0:00:48.360 something over the next thirty days. So this is the 0:00:48.440 --> 0:00:54.040 last two weeks have been an intense partisan political debate 0:00:54.200 --> 0:00:58.440 right about districting and the Texas issue, in the California issue. 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.800 If you're politically engaged, you've been totally wired in on this, 0:01:01.920 --> 0:01:04.360 and I also understand that this is August and there 0:01:04.400 --> 0:01:07.039 were If you're not sort of a political junkie, you 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.520 haven't been engaged in this. But this is why it's 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.600 important to follow the next thirty days to see what 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:19.840 is the fallout from this intense partisan debate over redistricting 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:23.720 in Texas and California, where partisans just are ready to fight, like, 0:01:23.800 --> 0:01:27.080 let's pick up arms, let's do this. Is this going 0:01:27.120 --> 0:01:30.080 to inspire more candidates to run for office? Is it 0:01:30.160 --> 0:01:34.160 going to inspire more donations to one party or the other? 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:37.600 And that's the follow on effect that I'm curious to 0:01:37.640 --> 0:01:42.160 watch out for at this point. Look, I've let you 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:45.360 know my feelings about where I think this redistricting, you know, 0:01:45.560 --> 0:01:49.440 the long term negative impact and consequences that we could 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:53.000 be dealing with. But I'm very curious what is this 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:56.240 doing to a couple levels of enthusiam. What is this doing. 0:01:56.320 --> 0:01:59.000 Let's look on the Democratic side, what is this doing 0:01:59.040 --> 0:02:03.040 to democratic donor enthusiasm. It's not been a good year 0:02:03.080 --> 0:02:06.960 so far fundraising. You haven't seen there's something in the 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:09.840 news cycle you haven't seen. Sometimes when you don't see headlines, 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:11.799 that's news. You know. There haven't been a lot of 0:02:11.840 --> 0:02:15.720 headlines that hey, Democratic candidate X, you know, raised x 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:17.679 amount of money in the first twenty four hours of 0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:22.519 their candidacy, their announcement video garnered this many donations. You 0:02:22.560 --> 0:02:24.080 know why I haven't heard many of that because there 0:02:24.560 --> 0:02:27.919 hasn't been any of these big moments. Remember in twenty 0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.360 seventeen and there was this special election in Georgia and 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:34.720 John Ossoff was that time, the now senator from Georgia 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:37.320 was a House candidate then and he was breaking all 0:02:37.320 --> 0:02:40.080 sorts of records with these money bombs and how fired 0:02:40.160 --> 0:02:45.600 up based donors were to give money to this. I've 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:49.360 not seen any evidence so far. And like I said, 0:02:49.400 --> 0:02:52.840 it is a vacation month right before the start of school, 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:56.120 so there certainly are plenty of reasons why maybe there 0:02:56.120 --> 0:03:00.360 aren't as many people paying attention. But I've not since 0:03:02.639 --> 0:03:09.000 any sort of bump yet that this fight that Gavin 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.720 Newsom has been leading for the party in this national 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:15.400 fight over redistricting in the state of Texas has had 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:19.520 this you know, has had an impact financially or has 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:22.200 had an impact on more candidates going, you know what, 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:24.600 I want to run for office. This time, you had 0:03:24.639 --> 0:03:26.720 a record amount of candidates that wanted to run for 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:29.760 office right after the twenty sixteen election. There was a 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:32.600 real response to that, like, hey, you know, I need 0:03:32.639 --> 0:03:36.040 to jump into this. I need to do my part. 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:39.120 In some places, you're seeing a bunch of candidates get 0:03:39.160 --> 0:03:42.920 in Iowa, Senate, right, they can't seem to. They finally 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.480 a fifth candidate jumped into that race, and finally somebody 0:03:45.520 --> 0:03:48.920 decided to get out and endorse that new candidate in 0:03:48.960 --> 0:03:51.280 the race. But still you sort of take that away 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:55.040 and you're not you're not seeing it yet. And that's 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:56.960 the thing. I don't want to say that this is 0:03:57.080 --> 0:04:02.560 definitive of anything. Yet. If a party out of power 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.880 is starting to gain momentum into a midterm election, you 0:04:05.960 --> 0:04:10.520 do start to see certain things. You start to see 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:15.080 an advantage in fundraising. So far, we've not seen any 0:04:15.080 --> 0:04:18.280 advantages on fundraising. If anything, the story is about how 0:04:18.279 --> 0:04:20.200 a bunch of Democratic donors appear to be sitting on 0:04:20.240 --> 0:04:22.320 their hands at least when it comes to the major committees, 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.479 and we know that seems to be that could be 0:04:25.640 --> 0:04:29.720 just more about a lack of confidence in the leadership 0:04:29.720 --> 0:04:31.400 of the Democratic Party and they don't want to give 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.760 it to the official committees. But it's not like we're 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:38.800 seeing candidates below the doors off in fundraising just yet. 0:04:39.600 --> 0:04:42.880 I think Roy Cooper had a pretty good opening bid 0:04:43.040 --> 0:04:45.400 fundraiser when he jumped into the North Carolina Center race. 0:04:45.440 --> 0:04:49.640 But again, you know it doesn't fit. We're not yet 0:04:49.680 --> 0:04:54.600 looking at twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, which was right, which 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:59.600 was sort of peak sort of United Democratic Party fired up, donors, 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:03.400 fired up everything, right. So my point is things you 0:05:03.400 --> 0:05:05.080 want to watch them. So we're not quite seeing that. 0:05:05.520 --> 0:05:08.880 Are we seeing a whole bunch of candidates jump in races? Well, 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:10.480 you know, I was looking at it, and while you 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:15.560 are seeing it in sporadic places, it's not like you're 0:05:15.600 --> 0:05:20.440 seeing there's such enthusiasm to jump in that things are 0:05:20.440 --> 0:05:22.920 going to look so good for Democrats, that they've got 0:05:22.960 --> 0:05:25.480 a viable candidate, say in an open seat in Kentucky, 0:05:26.800 --> 0:05:31.080 you know, six years ago. You know, every six years, 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:34.039 it seems as if that they're you you know, I'm 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:37.360 not saying Kentucky should be what you measure. The ability 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:40.360 of whether or not Democrats can find a viable candidate 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.359 for Kentucky Senate should be a measure about whether the 0:05:42.360 --> 0:05:44.599 party's going to do well in the midterms. I don't 0:05:44.600 --> 0:05:47.719 expect them to win that race, but the fact that 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:53.280 really isn't a candidate of note yet into that one 0:05:54.000 --> 0:05:56.680 and in just in you know, it's you know, you 0:05:56.720 --> 0:06:01.239 don't have candidates like rushing to the filing deadlines just yet, 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:06.680 perhaps this will come perhaps right, and you know, one 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:11.799 could argue the official starting Gun four campaign twenty twenty 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:15.600 six as usually Labor Day twenty twenty five. But there's 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.479 just it's an intangible when you've been doing this a 0:06:18.480 --> 0:06:20.880 long time, you know, it's sort of like what the 0:06:21.080 --> 0:06:22.760 kids like to say today, when you know, you know, 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:24.880 this is one of those that feels like there's something 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:27.600 happening here and it's just not developing in the same 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:32.240 way that we saw, for instance, during the first Trump midterm. 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.280 That doesn't mean things could change. You heard that interview 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.480 with Mark Zandi many of you, you know, the economy 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:40.679 in the spring of twenty six. That may matter more 0:06:41.400 --> 0:06:45.160 than anything I'm talking about right now than the disappointing 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:52.000 early fundraising or the not quite gangbuster candidate recruitment that 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:54.839 we've seen. It's been good, not great. What's interesting is 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:57.640 Democrats have actually still done a little bit better on 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:01.520 the candidate recruitment front than Republicans. For instance, Republicans still 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:05.799 don't have a sort of an agreed upon viable candidate 0:07:05.800 --> 0:07:09.280 in the open Minnesota center race. And so there, you know, 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:14.760 it's almost as if there's this weird pause over things 0:07:14.800 --> 0:07:18.400 because again it's it's not like things are that much 0:07:18.440 --> 0:07:23.280 better on the Republican side. They're doing better on money, right, 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:28.080 there's more unity around Trump, but it isn't translating quite 0:07:28.120 --> 0:07:30.400 like it's not like it's helping their candidate in Virginia. 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:35.320 And that's if anything, and you're not you know, to me, 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:38.480 what's interesting by campaign twenty twenty five, there's there is 0:07:38.520 --> 0:07:42.240 sort of one swing race, but it's not Virginia this cycle, 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:45.280 and it's not New York City. It's New Jersey governor. 0:07:45.960 --> 0:07:48.480 In the point in that it's gonna of all the 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:50.800 races this cycle, it's probably going to tell me the 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:56.000 most about what twenty twenty six could look like. It is. 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:59.160 You know, New Jersey is a very suburban state, right, 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.000 so if the suburbs or are they going to be 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:06.280 turning against Trump? Or did he those inroads he made 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:09.520 in twenty twenty four, are those sustained even when he's 0:08:09.520 --> 0:08:14.440 not on the ballot, Right, he really improved Republican standing 0:08:14.440 --> 0:08:16.400 in New Jersey, New Jersey, Illinois, those are two of 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:20.440 those states where Trump did dramatically better in losing them 0:08:20.440 --> 0:08:22.480 in twenty twenty four that he did in either twenty 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:26.480 twenty or twenty sixteen. Was that a blip? Was that 0:08:26.560 --> 0:08:31.000 an outlier? Or is there are we still in the 0:08:31.040 --> 0:08:34.240 middle of some form of a realignment in some of 0:08:34.240 --> 0:08:37.679 these other places. So the New Jersey governor's race, it's 0:08:37.720 --> 0:08:42.120 an open governor's race. Republicans, haven't you know, this is 0:08:42.120 --> 0:08:45.920 one of those states that it does sort of vacillate, right, 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:47.880 It's one of those that doesn't like to have any 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:51.480 party usually get more than eight to twelve years at 0:08:51.480 --> 0:08:58.319 a time on this front. So the Republican candidate Chidarelli 0:08:58.440 --> 0:09:01.760 does sort of have a little bit he just feels Jersey. 0:09:02.320 --> 0:09:06.000 You just sort of again like Phil Murphy feels Jersey, right, 0:09:06.360 --> 0:09:09.280 Chris Christy feels Jersey. I say, this is a good 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.880 way sort of like do you feel like they're representative 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:14.000 of Jersey. I'm not saying Mikey Cheryl isn't the case. 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:17.760 It doesn't you know, the same thing. But there's something 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:20.800 I don't know. You see it. And he's running a 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:26.720 second time that you know, he's the second time candidates 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.320 in these governors races. Actually, there's a pretty decent track 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:32.520 record when you're nominee twice in a row. Jeb Bush 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:35.080 lost the first time he ran for governor, learned some 0:09:35.240 --> 0:09:39.760 lessons got better the second time. Mikey Cheryl sort of 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:42.720 stumbled on the Mom Donnie question and that and that's 0:09:42.760 --> 0:09:45.880 going to be something that I'm very curious about New Jersey, 0:09:46.320 --> 0:09:50.320 which is, I don't think Mom Donnield is going to 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:53.680 be an issue for voters. But if Mikey Cheryl loses 0:09:53.760 --> 0:09:56.800 or comes really close to losing, there's going to be 0:09:56.880 --> 0:10:00.959 a perception that, hey, this may have been an overhang, 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:02.800 this may have been a problem, and it's going to 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:06.800 spook the party, if you will. It was interesting that 0:10:06.880 --> 0:10:08.640 she was on air when she was first asked and 0:10:08.679 --> 0:10:11.240 she said she was likely she couldn't imagine not supporting 0:10:11.240 --> 0:10:14.920 The Democratic nominee Chidarelli campaign has been hitting her saying, 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:21.680 hey see she supports Mom Donnie. Meanwhile, the Cheryl campaign 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:24.480 is saying no, no, no, no. She hasn't officially endorsed. You know. 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:28.839 It's one of those where you say, you know, if 0:10:28.840 --> 0:10:31.400 she were, if you're a bit more nimble. When she 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.160 was first asked the question, the easy answer is, I 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:37.839 don't think New Yorkers want a New Jersey person telling 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:39.400 them who to vote for And I certainly don't want 0:10:39.400 --> 0:10:41.440 New Yorkers telling New Jersey who they should be electing 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:46.200 as governor, you know, something along those lines. And I 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.319 think it just shows you this is happening to a 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:54.120 lot of Democrats. Nobody's quite sure how progressive is the 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:58.720 Democratic base. Will you get punished if you sort of 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:06.280 aren't seen as as sort of progressive enough? Is it 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:09.600 overrated or underrated? And I think I've sensed that quite 0:11:09.600 --> 0:11:12.880 a few Democratic candidates aren't sure right because the people 0:11:12.880 --> 0:11:15.439 that show up to the fundraisers, the people that show 0:11:15.520 --> 0:11:18.760 up to the events, they're very progressive. But is that 0:11:18.800 --> 0:11:20.800 what you need? Are they not going to show up 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.280 if you sort of tack to the center. And I 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:25.760 think that New Jersey's going to be an interesting test 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:29.800 of this, of all the three races that we're all 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:32.000 going to be watching very closely on election night twenty 0:11:32.040 --> 0:11:33.680 twenty five, and I'm going to be watching a handful 0:11:33.720 --> 0:11:36.720 of other mayor's races too. As I've pointed out, quite 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:40.559 a few incumbent mayors are struggling. The incumbent mayor of 0:11:40.640 --> 0:11:45.240 Seattle ended up being the number two vote get or 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:48.160 in that all party primary, or that non party primary 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.160 basically that Washington State holds. We've already seen the mayor 0:11:51.160 --> 0:11:54.800 of Pittsburgh lose a primary, so there's definitely I think 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.959 there's in you know, it's not great to be an incumbent, right, 0:11:58.040 --> 0:12:00.120 This is like one of those which is also so 0:12:00.200 --> 0:12:03.880 something else. You know, Mikey Cheryl has nothing to do 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:07.040 with Phil Murphy's administration, and yet it's a Democrat trying 0:12:07.080 --> 0:12:10.720 to replace a Democrat. So in some ways, she's kind 0:12:10.720 --> 0:12:14.839 of defending an incumbent administration where Abigail Spamberger, right, she's 0:12:14.880 --> 0:12:17.000 not only gets the benefit of sort of running against 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:19.360 the White House in northern Virginia, but also it's a 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.040 Republican governor, and there's a sense of, you know, she 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:24.600 gets to sort of run as the outsider. And I 0:12:24.640 --> 0:12:27.640 think we're more in an anti incumbent environment than any 0:12:27.640 --> 0:12:30.640 sort of anti party environment. So that's one of those 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.160 cases where it could hurt the Democrat in New Jersey 0:12:33.160 --> 0:12:39.360 but help the Democrat even more in Virginia. But the 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.760 point is is that there's this I don't think we 0:12:41.880 --> 0:12:45.800 can barely say we really know if twenty twenty six 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.400 is really tilting in one direction or the other. Right, 0:12:48.559 --> 0:12:51.439 history says it should already be tilting towards the Democrats. 0:12:51.880 --> 0:12:55.559 There's certainly plenty of underlying numbers showing that you'd probably 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:58.360 rather be a Democrat on the ballot in twenty twenty 0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:03.680 six than a Republican. But it's not as this doesn't 0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:07.320 look like twenty eighteen. That doesn't mean it won't develop 0:13:07.400 --> 0:13:12.079 that way. Could. Like I said, I think the biggest 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.920 uncertainty we have here is not what happens to a 0:13:15.960 --> 0:13:17.800 candidate in New York City, or what happens in New 0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:21.360 Year's e governor, or which candidates get recruited, or whether 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:25.080 Democrats can put more Senate seats in play. You know, 0:13:25.160 --> 0:13:27.079 can they put Florida in play? Can they put a 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.559 Mississippi in play? Can they put a Kansas in play? 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:31.880 Can they put an Eyewa in play? You know, if 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:33.880 they're not putting two or three of those states that 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.599 I just ticked off there, they're not really going to 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:39.120 be able to make a viable case I could win 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:42.040 the majority the Senate. So then it all goes to 0:13:42.080 --> 0:13:46.280 the House. Well, these redistricting fights, maybe that's also delaying 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.439 candidate interest, right, that doesn't help, And all of that 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:54.760 just sort of delays delays. That said, if the economy 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:58.280 is as is as bad as some people fear, it's 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:01.720 going to be in the spring of twenty six, right, 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:04.480 and what is bad is bad sort of rising unemployment 0:14:05.240 --> 0:14:08.480 and rising inflation. Right, are we in this stagflation moment 0:14:09.559 --> 0:14:13.640 that folks are worried about? Or is it better than 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:18.440 you think? And then that could change the conversation quite 0:14:18.480 --> 0:14:23.160 a bit. So right now you don't see the same 0:14:23.280 --> 0:14:29.160 level where this anti Trump antagonism is supercharging financial enthusiasm 0:14:29.240 --> 0:14:33.000 and other enthusiasm for the Democrats. And at the same time, 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.040 the big uncertainty, of course, is still going to be 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:41.040 the shape of the economy in the spring of twenty 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:44.160 twenty six. So that said, we are living in an 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:48.040 era of tumult, We are living in an era that 0:14:48.080 --> 0:14:52.040 we vote more against than what we're four. And it's 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:56.840 that set up that probably works best in describing the 0:14:56.840 --> 0:15:00.160 conversation that Charlie Cook and I have coming up. We'll 0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.440 sneak at a break here and when we come back, 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:17.360 Charlie Cook, all right, let's do a little lass Chuck 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:24.320 ask Chuck. I'm really fired up. I really like the 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:28.720 expanded overseas questions we're getting this one comes from another one. 0:15:28.720 --> 0:15:31.040 I think this is our second one from the Netherlands. 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.040 I hope we can get a Dutch question at some point, 0:15:35.120 --> 0:15:37.680 maybe holler at somebody from Holland will send one. See 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:40.480 if any of you get that joke. But let's see here. 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:44.360 This is Randall V. From Leiden, the Netherlands, and he writes, 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.560 with the recent developments between President Trump and Vladimir Putin 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.160 another meeting with no real results but clear advantages for Putin. 0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:54.040 I left deeply frustrated. How is it possible that wealthy 0:15:54.040 --> 0:15:56.240 democracies like the US and EU keep allowing him to 0:15:56.240 --> 0:15:58.920 get what he wants time and again? Was so little pushback? 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.800 As someone from Leiden, this city the Pilgrims once left 0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:04.600 in search of liberty, I feel a deep historical connection 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:06.920 to the United States, but it's hard to reconcile that 0:16:07.000 --> 0:16:10.800 legacy with today's seeming powerlessness in the face of authoritarianism 0:16:11.240 --> 0:16:14.280 authoritarian aggression. Have we reached the limits of democracy or 0:16:14.320 --> 0:16:17.680 are we simply two divided and distracted to act? More 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.720 regards Randall, you know, I've thought about this question in 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:26.920 a few ways because it actually applies to and I 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:28.480 know you're going to find this at first odd, but 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:31.440 it sort of applies to why why folks aren't taking 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:35.200 this measles outbreak more seriously for instance, And you know, 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:37.400 I'm glad to see that the Texans feel like they're 0:16:37.440 --> 0:16:42.200 finally getting this under control. You know, there's a point where, 0:16:42.840 --> 0:16:45.360 you know, the whole point of history is where you know, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:47.080 if you don't learn it, you're deemed to repeat it. 0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:51.240 But it turns out we forget it in civilizations time 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:54.920 and time again. And it feels like about, you know, 0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:59.240 once once something faded into third or fourth generation, it's 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:01.360 almost like we have to repeat it because I can 0:17:01.400 --> 0:17:03.960 tell you with what we're going through. One of the 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.760 reasons and you've heard me say this why I'm long 0:17:07.840 --> 0:17:10.680 term optimistic but short term pessimistic about sort of where 0:17:10.720 --> 0:17:15.920 this democracy is going is that we've done this. We 0:17:16.480 --> 0:17:19.280 do this. We've done it a few times where we 0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:24.199 have veered into some undemocratic you know lanes here, and 0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:27.560 then all of a sudden we correct ourselves. It's like 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:29.840 it's like we're about to swerve off the road and 0:17:29.880 --> 0:17:34.320 we somehow, just before we go into the ditch, we 0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.439 get back on the straight and narrow so there's a 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:42.000 part of me that wonders if it's if just Hitler's 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:47.760 too far away. What happened in Europe is too far away. 0:17:47.920 --> 0:17:52.320 You know, my grandfather who fought has been dead for 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:56.760 forty five years, right, So here was a first person 0:17:56.800 --> 0:18:01.800 account that I'm no longer right, which means my kids 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:04.399 are getting second hand, third hand. So maybe it's that 0:18:05.000 --> 0:18:08.280 I'm not you know, I'm just throwing that idea out 0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.199 there that sometimes we have to. You know, there's an 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:14.840 expression in this country this second you know, there's no 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:17.720 new intelligence has learned from a second kick into the 0:18:17.720 --> 0:18:20.200 head from a mule, meaning you know, once you've learned 0:18:20.240 --> 0:18:22.200 the way mules kick, you're going to sort of stay 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.240 out of their way. I don't know about that. Sometimes 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:27.200 I think our country needs a kick in the head 0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:31.520 about every eighty years, where we will go through an 0:18:31.560 --> 0:18:34.399 existential crisis or two. You know, where we were in 0:18:34.440 --> 0:18:38.040 the eighteen fifties and where we were in the nineteen thirties, 0:18:39.200 --> 0:18:42.120 and that was more global than just here, and then 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:46.320 here we are again arguably right, you know, now we're 0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.119 just under one hundred years later, about eighty you know, 0:18:48.200 --> 0:18:53.359 somewhere between eighty and ninety years later. So there's it 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:59.239 may simply be that, as John m John McCain used 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:01.159 to joke, it's always darker, you know, he used to 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:04.720 quote Mause saying, it's always darkest before it turns really black. 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:11.520 But I do think that that that some of this 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:15.640 is just is some sort of it's not a it's 0:19:15.640 --> 0:19:18.960 not that we forget what happened. We just can't imagine 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.040 that our modern society we would allow the same things 0:19:22.440 --> 0:19:25.360 to happen that happened in the thirties. And yet now 0:19:25.359 --> 0:19:28.640 we're all finding out, Oh, this is how Germany might 0:19:28.640 --> 0:19:35.200 have happened. Right, So look, I'm surprised you're not more 0:19:35.240 --> 0:19:39.400 optimistic about Europe's response. I've been impressed with how United 0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:43.679 Europe is stuck with Ukraine, and in some ways I 0:19:43.720 --> 0:19:48.399 think it's it may be in the long term better 0:19:48.480 --> 0:19:51.359 for the EU, better for the continent as a whole, 0:19:52.320 --> 0:19:59.160 that that there was the possibility that the United States 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:02.280 wouldn't be that you ally anymore for one reason or 0:20:02.280 --> 0:20:05.480 the other. I'd like to think that will still never happen. 0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:12.000 But the fact that you know, you see everybody in 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:17.480 your pivoting to collective security, I think that's it sort of. 0:20:17.520 --> 0:20:22.280 It gives me some hope that, hey, there are you 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:26.800 know it. Obviously, the closer the war is to you, 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:31.119 the more serious you take the threat. This war's on 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:33.280 the other side of an ocean for us, and then 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:36.480 on the other side of a continent there right, it 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:41.240 is not for you. So perhaps we should take the 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:44.639 fact that Europeans seemed to be a bit more united 0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:50.760 have been. Look, I was extraordinarily impressed with how Europe's 0:20:50.800 --> 0:20:56.280 responded to Trump two point out, and I think that 0:20:55.520 --> 0:21:00.000 that maybe that's you might feel a bit more ouptate, 0:21:00.080 --> 0:21:05.280 mystic if you focus on how's your respondent? I mean, look, 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.000 trust me, I don't like that the United States is 0:21:08.040 --> 0:21:11.760 not interested in being leader of the free world. I 0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.119 did not know we'd ever have an American president that 0:21:14.240 --> 0:21:17.639 didn't want to be leader of the free world, that 0:21:17.760 --> 0:21:20.000 didn't want to be the chief promoter of liberty and 0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:24.280 democracy around the world. That's a big change for a 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:31.040 lot of us. Many of us hope it's temporary, all right. 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.480 Next question comes from Nate, a longtime listener viewer, and 0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:35.800 understand your passion for baseball. I'm a gen xer like 0:21:35.840 --> 0:21:39.800 you and a lifelong brewer. Fan. I fun little trivia 0:21:39.880 --> 0:21:44.480 question out there for you folks. Can you name the 0:21:44.520 --> 0:21:49.480 original home of the Milwaukee Brewers. Of course I don't. 0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:51.560 It's not like I'm going to be having like seventh 0:21:51.600 --> 0:21:55.440 Caller get surprize. But I always love having to teach 0:21:55.520 --> 0:21:59.040 my son that they were originally the Seattle Pilots. Anyway, 0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.800 lifelong Brewer fan, so I do I am curious? Nate, 0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:04.200 let us know, were you ever a Seattle Pilot fan? 0:22:04.400 --> 0:22:08.080 And do you collect Seattle Pilot's paraphernalia as sort of 0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:12.520 an homage to the Brewers? Okay, any rights, I may 0:22:12.520 --> 0:22:15.159 be living in an alternative universe because it seems my 0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:17.240 Brewers are not only the best team in the majors currently, 0:22:17.400 --> 0:22:19.640 but also reportedly have the top farm system as well. 0:22:19.840 --> 0:22:21.840 I'm not sure how it all happened, but does this 0:22:21.920 --> 0:22:24.359 give some hope for baseball competitiveness long term? Or is 0:22:24.400 --> 0:22:26.199 this just a blip and we'll be back to the 0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:28.800 Dodgers and Yankees' usual domination by the end of the year. 0:22:29.040 --> 0:22:31.400 What can other organizations like your Nats learned from them 0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:35.000 that can be replicated to maintain some semblance of competition? 0:22:35.080 --> 0:22:39.160 Keep up the excellent work. Look I mean, the fact 0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:43.080 of the matter is the baseball playoffs are the great equalizer, right. 0:22:43.119 --> 0:22:46.560 The one thing that baseball has to equalize things is 0:22:46.600 --> 0:22:49.840 the five game series. Right, You get two hot pitchers 0:22:49.840 --> 0:22:51.960 in a five game series and you can beat the 0:22:52.000 --> 0:22:55.960 best team in baseball. You know, I've you know, I remember, 0:22:57.119 --> 0:22:59.359 I remember when the Gnats were going to be the 0:22:59.400 --> 0:23:02.800 wild card and I was telling them in son, I'm like, no, no, no, no, 0:23:02.920 --> 0:23:04.480 we want we want it this way. We don't want 0:23:04.480 --> 0:23:08.040 to win the division. We win the division, we won't 0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:10.359 get to face if we face the Dodgers, it's in 0:23:10.400 --> 0:23:12.040 a seven game. If we do it the wild card, 0:23:12.080 --> 0:23:14.760 we get the Dodgers in the five game, and sure 0:23:14.840 --> 0:23:16.159 enough we got them in the five game and we 0:23:16.160 --> 0:23:19.080 can meet them in a five game. So I do 0:23:19.160 --> 0:23:23.280 think the playoffs, right like the playoffs in the NBA 0:23:23.760 --> 0:23:27.520 are are not an equalizer, right, it almost you know, 0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:30.800 you have to be deep, you have to be you know, 0:23:30.880 --> 0:23:33.920 there isn't you know. There was a brief period where 0:23:33.920 --> 0:23:37.320 the NBA. There was one year the Lakers got eliminated 0:23:37.320 --> 0:23:39.240 in the first round in a best two out of three, 0:23:39.720 --> 0:23:42.080 right like, So they tinkered early and then they went 0:23:42.119 --> 0:23:44.879 all seven games. I would love to see the NBA 0:23:45.000 --> 0:23:50.040