1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: Well, I did an emergency podcast last weekend after the trade, 2 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,680 Speaker 1: and I thought to myself, why don't we just keep 3 00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:22,160 Speaker 1: doing some draft weekend podcasts leading up to I don't know, 4 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:26,400 Speaker 1: the NFL Draft. Everyone has opinions, everyone's fired up about 5 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: this thing. We've already had a ton of trades, we 6 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: already got a ton of unknown And as someone who 7 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:35,199 Speaker 1: worked in scouting, who the reason he got into scouting 8 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:37,920 Speaker 1: and really even college football was because, at my core, 9 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 1: as much as I love the sport, I love the draft. 10 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:44,880 Speaker 1: I would say I'm a draft addict, and I would 11 00:00:44,920 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: say I'm not even close to as big of an 12 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,400 Speaker 1: addict as some of the people my best friends. When 13 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: I worked in the NFL with the Eagles, who are 14 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: now kind of all over the league. Those guys, I 15 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: mean literally couldn't be anymore addicted to the draft. They 16 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: do it for a living. They talk about at three. 17 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 1: They watch these guys three. It's literally their life's work 18 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 1: as an executive in the NFL. And I'm not even 19 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: just talking about the Howie Roseman's, the Brett Beaches. I'm 20 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:17,639 Speaker 1: talking about the assistance, the college directors, the college scouts. Uh, 21 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,400 Speaker 1: It's just it's a passionate time of year for those guys. 22 00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:23,240 Speaker 1: For as much as we love it on the outside, uh, 23 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: they they they dedicate their life and their time to 24 00:01:27,360 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: just evaluating these guys and stacking the board. And to me, 25 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: the most fascinating thing about the draft and it's it's 26 00:01:34,880 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: something that I've really developed over the last decade. And 27 00:01:38,400 --> 00:01:40,480 Speaker 1: if you've listened to my show, you know you know 28 00:01:40,520 --> 00:01:43,319 Speaker 1: I love the stock market, I I love business, I 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,039 Speaker 1: I love money, and I think the key as you 30 00:01:47,120 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 1: grow older and you start making much bigger purchases in 31 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 1: life and you try to be more and more successful 32 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 1: and you try to associate with smarter people, the one 33 00:01:54,600 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: thing you learn is how key value is right. And 34 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 1: I've said this on the pod cast and I'll say 35 00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 1: it until the day I died, because it's it's one 36 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: of the greatest quotes I've ever seen. You know, the 37 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 1: profit is not made when you sell something. The profit 38 00:02:09,639 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 1: is made in the purchase price. And I think that 39 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,280 Speaker 1: can be related to the draft. The number one thing 40 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:17,840 Speaker 1: when I look at going into the draft is not 41 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: how great of a player can I get? Now, obviously 42 00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: that's important, and that is the ultimate, I guess point 43 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: of the event. Right is to pick players. But to me, 44 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:31,120 Speaker 1: the number one key is to pick the players at 45 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: the right price. Because ideally, if you want to buy 46 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: a home, if a home is five hundred thousand dollars 47 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 1: and it's worth five d thousand dollars, well can you 48 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: get the home for four thousand dollars and then three 49 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: years sell that home for eight hundred thousand dollars? Right, 50 00:02:45,520 --> 00:02:48,200 Speaker 1: Because ideally you don't want to have to spend seven 51 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 1: dollars on a five thousand dollar home. It's no different 52 00:02:52,400 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: with the draft, right, And I think that's the number 53 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: one key. And I had a good friend who's worked 54 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 1: in the NFL sent me this project that he did 55 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: on the draft years ago about value and about where 56 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,560 Speaker 1: you can get certain players. Because a huge part of 57 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: draft meetings when you're talking about the players in your area, 58 00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:15,280 Speaker 1: and I think you see this on social media, is 59 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 1: talking about player comps. Because if I go, I really 60 00:03:18,520 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: love Davante Smith, well, you have to be able to 61 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,880 Speaker 1: tell your general manager or your head coach, well, who 62 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: can you comp this player too? Because if you think 63 00:03:27,720 --> 00:03:30,400 Speaker 1: he's worthy of a top ten pick, well you better. 64 00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:33,280 Speaker 1: Like mel Kiper told me on my other podcast, he 65 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,440 Speaker 1: compared it to Marvin Harrison. If you think he's Marvin Harrison, 66 00:03:36,440 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: then he's probably worth the top ten pick. But if 67 00:03:38,520 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: you think he's just gonna be a solid starter, then 68 00:03:40,200 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: he's not worth taking in that range. And to me, 69 00:03:43,120 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: when you talk about first round picks, especially the top 70 00:03:45,640 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 1: half of the first round, I think there are three 71 00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: positions I'm I'm isolating, and I'm selecting obviously quarterback. And 72 00:03:52,840 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: I know a lot of stories are coming out now 73 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:57,360 Speaker 1: because it looks like they're gonna be four quarterbacks go 74 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: in the first four picks, and I don't think that's 75 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: ever happening history. I think the last time that three 76 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 1: quarterbacks have gone one to three was in like that 77 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: Donovan McNabb draft, which I think was when it was 78 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 1: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Achielly Smith. Uh. If memory serves 79 00:04:13,440 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 1: me correct, and I think history would show us even 80 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: the last decade that most high first round picks do 81 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 1: not hit. And my pushback would be I think the 82 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: league has dramatically changed in the last five years. And 83 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: when you look at recent examples of Mahomes, of Deshaun Watson, 84 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,240 Speaker 1: of Josh Allen, even if Baker Mayfield Lamar Jackson. Like, 85 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:35,799 Speaker 1: I think it's pretty clear that it's never been easier 86 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:39,479 Speaker 1: to play quarterback. Right, you can't really get hit. Your 87 00:04:39,520 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: wide receivers are not in the threat of getting hit. 88 00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: No one can take them out over the middle or 89 00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 1: on the sideline. Uh not. Many teams are running like 90 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,160 Speaker 1: the Seattle They run the Seattle defense, but the Richard 91 00:04:51,200 --> 00:04:53,160 Speaker 1: Shermans aren't walking through the door and they're bumping at 92 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage. Like those days are kind of 93 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,039 Speaker 1: over too. So it's never been easier to play quarterback. 94 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: It's why I'm all four taking a quarterback really high, 95 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: even though history would show us some of the best 96 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: players in the league. Aaron Rodgers right, went pick twenty four, 97 00:05:08,360 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: Russell Wilson third round pick, Tom Brady, an all time outlier, 98 00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 1: went six overall. I'd say though most of the top 99 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: quarterbacks you know. Peyton Manning was the number one overall pick, 100 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: Andrew luck was the number one overall pick. Roethlisberger went high, 101 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: Philip Rivers went high. Eli one multiple Super Bowls. He 102 00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: went high. Flacco won a Super Bowl. He went high. 103 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz was competing to win an m VP and 104 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,159 Speaker 1: win a Super Bowl. A couple of years ago. He 105 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 1: went really high. Jared Goff got to the super Bowl, 106 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: he went really high. I am a big believer in 107 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: taking quarterbacks high. They're the most important position in sports. 108 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:39,320 Speaker 1: You get the most bang for your buck if you 109 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,000 Speaker 1: get a guy in a rookie quarterback, even if he's 110 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: on the top ten, you know contract. Obviously you would 111 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: love a dock. You would love Russell Wilson in the 112 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: later rounds, but I'm all for it. The other two 113 00:05:48,200 --> 00:05:51,599 Speaker 1: positions historically that show you you get really really good 114 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: value and just the best players go. There would be 115 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: offensive tackle. And it's why I'm a big believer of 116 00:05:57,960 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 1: taking in this draft. You see a lot of people 117 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:01,800 Speaker 1: talk about the wide receivers, a lot of people talking 118 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:03,520 Speaker 1: about Kyle Pitt's the tight end who I think is 119 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: going to be a star. But we're talking value. And 120 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:09,359 Speaker 1: if I could get of a wide receiver in the 121 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: second round, as I could as the tenth pick, I 122 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:14,680 Speaker 1: would rather take the offensive tackle because history would show 123 00:06:14,760 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: us you're not going to get great offensive tackles in 124 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 1: the second or third round. But history would show us 125 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: that you can get star wide receivers in the second 126 00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:23,800 Speaker 1: and third round. And I believe that wide receivers have 127 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: kind of become the new running back now. Their careers 128 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,040 Speaker 1: once they're in the league, last a lot longer, right, 129 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,320 Speaker 1: Like a running back shelf life is relatively small. It's 130 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:35,960 Speaker 1: why looking back, when Dave Gettleman took sa Kwan Barkley 131 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 1: number two overall, not anyone in the league would argue 132 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 1: that se Kwan Barkley coming out of college was not 133 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: an elite player. He had elite attributes, he had elite film, 134 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: he was an elite prospect. But taking a running back 135 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 1: at number two overall is malpractice because when you look 136 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 1: in the NFL right now, look at some of the 137 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 1: best running backs in the league. Dalvin Cooks second rounder, 138 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: Alvin come Are a third rounder, Derrick Henry's second rounder. 139 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: These guys are clearly the best players in the league 140 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: at their position, and none of them went in the 141 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: first round. And and those guys actually got contract extensions. 142 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 1: So if I'm going high, I'm going offensive tackle because 143 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 1: I do think that one of the last places in 144 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: the NFL where you are still allowed to be physical, because, 145 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,400 Speaker 1: like I said, wide receivers you can't hit them corners. 146 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: You're not in DBS you're not allowed to hit, but 147 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: Khalil mack Aaron Donald, Trent Williams, Tyrone Smith, whoever you're off, 148 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: Quentin Nelson. It can get down dirty and physical. Anything 149 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 1: goes in the trenches, and they are still able to 150 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 1: play like they were able to play twenty and thirty 151 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: years ago. So I would always lean offensive tackle. Now. 152 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,280 Speaker 1: If you have two offensive tackles, obviously you gotta go 153 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: somewhere else. History would show us that if you if 154 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: you're gonna take a defensive lineman, you'd be better off 155 00:07:53,560 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: if both guys are equal, taking the defensive tackle in 156 00:07:57,600 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: the top fifteen over the defensive end, because there have 157 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: been several examples over the last decade of really good 158 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 1: defensive ends and pass rushers going either later in the 159 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: first round or in the second or third round, guys 160 00:08:10,280 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: like Daniel Hunter, Janick and Dockway, Olivier Vernon years ago, 161 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: Jared Allen. You can get productive pass rushers a little 162 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: bit later in the draft, but it's rare to find 163 00:08:21,800 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 1: Trent Williams, Lane Johnson, those type players at tackle. Look 164 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 1: at last year Tristan Worse's Mackay Beckton. You gotta get 165 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:33,960 Speaker 1: elite tackles high. But what about defensive tackles, because you 166 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: can get a Chase Younger in Nick Bosa, and that 167 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: is important if you can get those guys. But both 168 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: those guys went number two overall, and Nick Bosa won 169 00:08:41,840 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: the Rookie the Year obviously got hurt last year. Chase 170 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 1: young I think he was Defensive Player of the Year. 171 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:47,560 Speaker 1: He should have a Rookie of the Year. He should 172 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,120 Speaker 1: have been. But that's what those guys have to be 173 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: when you take him number two overall, because when you 174 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,319 Speaker 1: take a Solomon Thomas Cleveland Ferrell, it's a devastating blow. 175 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: But if you want a defensive tackle, to get an 176 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 1: elite guy, Now there are outliers like a Geno Atkins, 177 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:07,840 Speaker 1: but for the most part, Fletcher Cox, DeForest Buckner, Aaron Donald, 178 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 1: those guys are going really high. So if all things 179 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,880 Speaker 1: being equal, if you get the top elite defensive tackle 180 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,800 Speaker 1: or the elite defensive end, I would probably lean defensive 181 00:09:16,840 --> 00:09:20,480 Speaker 1: tackle because there's typically value on defensive ends in the 182 00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 1: second and third round. Now, sometimes they have flaws, clearly 183 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: they do, that's why they lasted the second or third round. 184 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: But I can find productive pass rushers. It's rare that 185 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 1: I'm finding Aaron Donald in the third round. Now, like 186 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: I said, Geno Atkins, you can find an outlier for 187 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: every position. But this is back to the wide receiver thing. 188 00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: Last year, all these wide receivers went. John Gruden, for example, 189 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,920 Speaker 1: took the first wide receiver off the board, Henry Ruggs. 190 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: He was the least productive of his group. Henry Ruggs, 191 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 1: Jerry Judy, Ceedee Lamb, Jalen Reagor all went before the 192 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: most productive guy of the group, justin Jefferson. History would 193 00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 1: show us. And this is where I'll use an example 194 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,920 Speaker 1: with the Miami doll offense. Right now, the overwhelming kind 195 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,559 Speaker 1: of thought process is the Dolphins should take Kyle Pitts, 196 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: Jamaar Chase, Jerry Judy, whoever they think is the best 197 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:14,160 Speaker 1: skill guy at number six. Overall, I would say no. 198 00:10:14,880 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: What I would do is I would take an offensive alignment, 199 00:10:17,360 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: an offensive tackle. Last year you took Austin Jackson from USC. 200 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:22,679 Speaker 1: This year you take Piney Soul, you take Slater from 201 00:10:22,720 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: North Northwestern Boom. You got your two tackles. And then 202 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,080 Speaker 1: at the end, I guess of the teams I think 203 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 1: they draft at eighteen, it might be nineteen. I think 204 00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: it's eighteen, take a wide receiver. Hell, even trade back 205 00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 1: and get into the twenties and take a wide receiver 206 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,559 Speaker 1: because history would show us that you can get really 207 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:40,679 Speaker 1: good wide receivers in the twenties. Hell, you can get 208 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:44,480 Speaker 1: really good wide receivers in the second round. A J. Brown, 209 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel. These guys did not go in 210 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: the first round. They are luxury items that you can 211 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 1: get Pro Bowl level players without using a top ten pick. 212 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: Now that doesn't mean that Kyle Pitts is not going 213 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: to be a star in the league. But if I 214 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: can get a J. Brown a little bit later and 215 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: still get my offensive tackle which I will not be 216 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: able to get later, that's the That's the part of 217 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: the value. The key in the draft is understanding the 218 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: value where I can get a player and what I 219 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: have to pay to get the guy. Because it's my 220 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,720 Speaker 1: pushback on all the Mac Jones forty Niners hype. If 221 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:24,760 Speaker 1: you're the forty Niners one, I don't believe they're gonna 222 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 1: take mac Jones, and I do believe that they wanted 223 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:29,200 Speaker 1: out there they're gonna take mac Jones. So when they 224 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 1: do take their guy, they don't get jumped if the 225 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:33,760 Speaker 1: Jets are open to trading that pick, which as of 226 00:11:33,880 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 1: right now you'd have to say they might be because 227 00:11:35,559 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 1: they haven't traded Sam Donald. But if you took mac 228 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: Jones at three, I'll never believe that you couldn't have 229 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,520 Speaker 1: got mac Jones at six. And we already know what 230 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,320 Speaker 1: it costs to get to six, because the Dolphins went 231 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 1: from twelve to six, and they went from twelve, which 232 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,840 Speaker 1: was the Niners spot, and it costs them one first 233 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 1: round pick. Well, the Niners gave multiple first round picks 234 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 1: to go from twelve to three. Well, I think you 235 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,440 Speaker 1: get mac Jones at six with only giving one first 236 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,599 Speaker 1: round picks, So it would be terrible vale you. It 237 00:12:00,640 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: would be an overpay. Now, ultimately, I think my scouting 238 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:06,920 Speaker 1: buddies would say, who cares if you overpaid? If you 239 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: got the quarterback, I would tend to agree if the 240 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,840 Speaker 1: guy becomes a great player. But part of this whole 241 00:12:12,880 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 1: exercise come April nine and even thirty one, when the 242 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 1: entire draft going on is maximizing value. That's what the 243 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,680 Speaker 1: best teams do. They pick the best players while maximizing value. 244 00:12:26,040 --> 00:12:29,479 Speaker 1: And the key is to understand the marketplace. That's why 245 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 1: you know there's always pushed back in grading systems with teams. 246 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: Should you grade by round or should you grade like 247 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,000 Speaker 1: the new England Patriots style, which is high end starter, 248 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:43,240 Speaker 1: solid starter, you know, fringe starter, back up out of 249 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: the league. Right, they just grade guys based on their team. 250 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: When I worked for the Eagles, we put round grades 251 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 1: on them, and I think it's mixed throughout the NFL. 252 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 1: I personally like putting a round grade on it what 253 00:12:55,040 --> 00:12:58,160 Speaker 1: he's worth, because I'm telling you what he's worth relative 254 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: to the rest of the draft. Also, I think his 255 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:02,760 Speaker 1: value is where I would pick them. So if I 256 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 1: think a guy's a third round pick and we and 257 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: he's still on the board in the fifth round, that's 258 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 1: incredible value. That's what I personally like to do. And 259 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,719 Speaker 1: this is not easy. You know. They often say that 260 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 1: it's clearly not an exact science because you're dealing with 261 00:13:16,840 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 1: human beings. These aren't widgets. This is not an Excel spreadsheet, 262 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: despite them putting these athletic testing numbers right that help 263 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: us stack guys. Right, how fast you are, how quick 264 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 1: your three cone is, how much you weigh up your production, 265 00:13:32,120 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: right your catches, your drops, your your sacks, whatever position 266 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: you play your tackles. I think linebacker is another position. 267 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,640 Speaker 1: I believe that historically middle linebacker maybe historically would be strong, 268 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 1: but the last twenty years has been the valued a 269 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,319 Speaker 1: little bit. I actually think having a great middle linebacker 270 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:56,079 Speaker 1: has um exponential value for great teams and great defenses, 271 00:13:56,640 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: because in two thousand one, most teams have productive tight ends, 272 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,560 Speaker 1: have offenses that want to throw to the tight ends, 273 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: and have productive running backs who can catch the ball. 274 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: So when when I got to the league in two 275 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: thousand and ten, a big line for running backs was 276 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 1: either like you're a bell cow running back or you're 277 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: a third down guy, a change of pace guy, a 278 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: k A. A guy that can catch the ball out 279 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: of the backfield. Well, in two thousand one, we encompass 280 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: everything now with our star running backs, say Kwan Barkley 281 00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 1: does it all beside pass protect, Christian McCaffrey does it all, 282 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, they do it all. Henry would 283 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: be somewhat of an outlier. He's not. I would say, 284 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:39,640 Speaker 1: a catching You know a guy that's gonna catch the 285 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: ball out of the backfield. Josh Jacobs, he can catch 286 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,640 Speaker 1: the ball right. I want my zeke he can catch 287 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 1: the ball. I want my running back to do it all. 288 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,200 Speaker 1: So my starting running backs gonna stay in the game 289 00:14:49,240 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 1: all three downs. I need a linebacker to be able 290 00:14:51,520 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: to check that guy in the passing game, just like 291 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: It's why Fred Warner right now, Luke Keikley forever. Those 292 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:01,720 Speaker 1: guys change your defense. They make every tackle on you know, 293 00:15:01,800 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: in the run game, and then they're able to play 294 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 1: past defense, which we all know because we've all seen 295 00:15:07,800 --> 00:15:11,600 Speaker 1: linebackers that cannot cover anyone. They are a major liability, 296 00:15:11,800 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: and in today's game you get exploited at just rapid rates. 297 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 1: In recent history would show us you can get really 298 00:15:19,560 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: good starting middle linebackers. You don't need to take them 299 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:24,120 Speaker 1: in the first round. That doesn't mean you can't get 300 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,560 Speaker 1: a really good linebacker in the first round. Luke Kickley 301 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 1: was a top ten pick. Ropewan Smith was a top 302 00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: ten pick. You can take those guys and they can 303 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 1: produce at a high level. But you can also find 304 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: Navarro Bowman in the third, Bobby Wagner in the second, 305 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:41,360 Speaker 1: Fred Warner in the third. There are example Eric Kendricks 306 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: with the Vikings in the second round. You can find 307 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: excellent pro bowl level guys later. So if I'm drafting 308 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: in the top ten and I go, I really need 309 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 1: a little middle linebacker. Or let's say I'm the Eagles 310 00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 1: who have always been they've never been a draft a 311 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: linebacker high, I would go, well, I wouldn't draft the 312 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,320 Speaker 1: best linebacker at twelve. I would take whatever my need 313 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: is at offensive or defensive line. Can I get a 314 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:07,160 Speaker 1: sweet pass rusher, Can I get a sweet defensive tackle? 315 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,880 Speaker 1: Can I get another sweet offensive lineman? And then in 316 00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,400 Speaker 1: the second round, use that pick on the middle linebacker. Now, 317 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:17,000 Speaker 1: you could say last year where they screwed up is now, 318 00:16:17,040 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 1: I mean Jalen Hurts is gonna be there starting quarterback, 319 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 1: But that would have been an area to take, you know, 320 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: on hybrid linebacker, because those guys are key in today's 321 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 1: modern game. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk 322 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 1: lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows at 323 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 1: Fox sports radio dot com and within the I Heart 324 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:39,440 Speaker 1: Radio app search f s R to listen live. Another 325 00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: thing that I've learned over the years and part of 326 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: the study and just part of things, if you talk 327 00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:46,560 Speaker 1: to people in the league, the most valuable picks in 328 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: the league, the most bang for your buck are the 329 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: second and third round picks. So it's basically Friday of 330 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: the draft because I can find Derrick Henry, DeShawn Jackson, 331 00:16:56,520 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: Janick and dock Way right, Danil Hunter, a j round, 332 00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: Dk Metcalf, Fred Warner. Like, the list is very very 333 00:17:03,760 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 1: long of elite Michael Thomas, Pro Bowl level impact players, 334 00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:15,320 Speaker 1: Eric Kendricks, Bobby Wagner under contract for really cheap like 335 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,159 Speaker 1: that is a huge key portion they make, you know, 336 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,600 Speaker 1: under a million dollars and you don't technically have to 337 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:24,080 Speaker 1: sign them till after the fourth year. You're great. Players 338 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,160 Speaker 1: usually get extended after three years. But that is by 339 00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: far the best value in the draft because you can 340 00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 1: get high end starters four cheap. And the best historically 341 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: area in the first round is not the top ten 342 00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,680 Speaker 1: because as we know, it's a fifty bus rate. Well, 343 00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 1: part of like drafting Solomon Thomas or Cleveland Ferrell or 344 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: Mr Bisky is you use an incredibly value cap piece 345 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: of capital on that guy. Right, the Bears drafted third, 346 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 1: they traded up to second. They gave their second and 347 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,920 Speaker 1: the third round pick to get Mr. Bisky. Well, as 348 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: we saw this year, the third round, the third overall 349 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: pick was worth pick twelve to other first round picks 350 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: and a third round pick. So a pick in the 351 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,320 Speaker 1: top five is worth a shipload. So if you miss 352 00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:15,720 Speaker 1: on that pick, it's a double whammy. You've just blown 353 00:18:15,800 --> 00:18:18,479 Speaker 1: a ton of potential capital for trading back until you've 354 00:18:18,480 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 1: got a bad player. So the picks that historically the 355 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: last several decades are the most valuable in the first 356 00:18:24,920 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: round are actually like ten to sixteen's where you get 357 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: the Fletcher Coxes, the Aaron Donald's, the JJ Watts, and 358 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,919 Speaker 1: because they're not as valuable as a trade asset, and 359 00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: they're just much cheaper like a guy at the twelfth 360 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: overall pick than a guy at the third overall pick. 361 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: Because a guy in the top five of the NFL 362 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,120 Speaker 1: Draft makes over thirty million dollars on a four year contract, 363 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: it's a lot of cash. That's what I think is 364 00:18:48,800 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: fascinating about this whole draft. It's what I truly love. Obviously, 365 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,200 Speaker 1: the players who's gonna be good and bad is what 366 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 1: we love to talk about. But the manipulation of the 367 00:18:57,080 --> 00:18:59,680 Speaker 1: process leading up to the draft, and we've already seen 368 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 1: several trades made, and then the trades that are made 369 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:05,119 Speaker 1: on draft night or throughout the you know, the first 370 00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: several rounds, the big trades, and you even see it 371 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,359 Speaker 1: in the second and third round. Someone will move up 372 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,400 Speaker 1: in the second round and trade a future second round pick, 373 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: and you just kind of when you do some of 374 00:19:13,760 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 1: these trades, you're typically betting on the team to be worse. 375 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,680 Speaker 1: When you trade future first round picks. The way it's 376 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,800 Speaker 1: been explained to me by people involved in the league 377 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: is they get discounted. So like when the Niners traded 378 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,879 Speaker 1: the Dolphins their two thousand, twenty two and two thousand 379 00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:34,440 Speaker 1: three first round picks, Well, the pick twelve is worth 380 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: a percent, right, because you know exactly what you're getting. 381 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: You're getting picked twelve. It has a tangible value. The 382 00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty two first round pick does not have 383 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: a tangible value because you've got no clue the Niners 384 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 1: could win one game or they could win fifteen games. 385 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 1: But here's what you immediately do. In what NFL teams do, 386 00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 1: that pick is worth of what it would be this year, 387 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 1: So it's viewed it's a discount, So it's not viewed 388 00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:00,560 Speaker 1: like it's viewed as a first round pick pick. But 389 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: it's not viewed and then the pick in three years 390 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:06,600 Speaker 1: two thousand twenty three, technically two years. I guess from 391 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 1: right now is viewed depending on what team you talk to. 392 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 1: You like discount, that's how it's few, so it's not 393 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: viewed is like you're getting three first round picks. Now 394 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: there's variants. Right The Texans did it with Laramie Tunzil 395 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,320 Speaker 1: and that pick ended up not being a discount. It 396 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: was an incredible premium. It ended up the third overall pick. 397 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,119 Speaker 1: We've all seen the stories of what they got for 398 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 1: Laramie tunzel So there is a huge unknown in these transactions. 399 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 1: But on the date the transaction is placed, those picks 400 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 1: are viewed at a discount. The future ones are the 401 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: future Two's typically a future too. Like if I give 402 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: you a two thousand twenty two. Let's say let's say 403 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: we flipped second round picks. I come up twenty spots 404 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 1: in this year's second round, and I give you a 405 00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,560 Speaker 1: future two for that draft. The way teams value that 406 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:57,399 Speaker 1: is actually a third round pick. Right now, that doesn't 407 00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: mean that second round pick may end up being really 408 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 1: good and it's actually you big picture once it actually 409 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:04,399 Speaker 1: comes to fruition as much better than what you valued 410 00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:06,399 Speaker 1: it for. But that's just the way it is in 411 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 1: terms of the trade value chart. So those are just 412 00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 1: a couple of things that I find pretty interesting leading 413 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,680 Speaker 1: up to the draft, and uh, I'm gonna enjoy keep 414 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,439 Speaker 1: talking about it until draft nights. Here